SpaceX

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The platform's own early signals for this company — hard-to-fake, and where one preceded a real raise, the measured lead.

• TLS certificate transparency 14 signals · latest 2026-07-29 predicted the raise 295d early ✓
• federal_register 2 signals · latest 2026-07-27
• SEC Form D — secondary demand 3 signals · latest 2026-03-02

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• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  And our way of getting to space is with the same guy we're competing against. So we have to pay him to get to space and then he's going to be meeting us up there with his data centers.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  This is, uh, obviously because of space X.

• bullish endorsement Bob Mumgaard

  Yeah. So that's, that's one idea. Um, and that's the idea that was in the, the fusion bill is that it's, it's actually modeled just after, uh, you know, Elon's other play on SpaceX, which is, you know, Hey, these companies are trying to do something really hard if they do it, let's, let's give them, you know, take the receipts and pay them back like half. So, so match on milestone based reimbursement, which, you know, is very, very successful. You know, you look at the, uh, crew dragon dropping

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  we actually started with those and i'll give you an interesting story we actually don't build those aren't we haven't productized those those were great subscale demonstrators but our real flagship product is corsair

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  our real flagship product is corsair and when you talk about again the the scenario in the straight of four moves and what type of volume can we bring there like it's not only five years in the future we can build 2 000 corsair per year right now at our manufacturing facility in austin

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  whereas like from our perspective when you own the design you own the shipyard you know software engineers shipbuilders naval architects and welders can all sit down and eat lunch together in the yard um there's end-to-end optimizations that you get that you know the system

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  when you look at what the administration is doing even just in shipbuilding just recognizing that shipbuilding is a critical strategic industry right the president one of the first things he did was put out the maritime executive order that was followed with the maritime action plan right there's ships act sitting in congress you had the secretary of war give a whole speech on defense acquisition reform talking about how we're going to push the department to be better to move faster to work with

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  our investors are giving us the capital to go do it they're actually entrusting us with that capital that's the reverse of what's happening in the large primes where their investors are kind of demanding share buybacks so the country very much needs us to build for needs companies like us to build for the future

• neutral fact_claim Dino Mavroucus

  a hundred thousand gross tons the chinese which you were referencing can build 23 million gross tons so they can outbuild the us 230 to one and it wasn't always the case right 30 years ago the chinese didn't have this capability they had five percent of the world's shipbuilding capacity today they have 57 of the world's shipbuilding capacity and actually that problem is getting worse because

• bullish endorsement Dino Mavroucus

  the navy actually trusted us in this moment lives are on the line we're going to send this autonomous platform to go and rescue these folks this is not a patrol this is not maritime domain awareness this is the highest stakes of the highest things

• bullish prediction David Sacks

  goes up 10x or eventually 100x times and that's when they can do all the interesting things like direct to cellular there were some interesting hints that when shotwell talked about about with ground

• neutral fact_claim David Sacks

  or rather they deployed 20 v3 satellites as a test and they were able to make connection with those satellites and prove that it worked they even had cameras on them the reason we were able to see

• neutral fact_claim David Sacks

  of its v2 satellite so currently the starlink network is powered by v2 satellites they deploy them on the falcon 9 rocket and they launch about 27 satellites per launch and that adds about 2.6 terabits per second of total network capacity starship deploys 60 of these v3 satellites per launch

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  this world comes down to he said something like that on the call where he said look putting up data centers is nothing compared to the difficulty of putting up a rocket right it's like you know creating data centers is not rocket science so they take some of those hardware expertise that they have from spacex and they put them into data centers and that's why they've been able to stand up you know more data centers or bigger data centers faster than all the competitors

• bullish assessment Gavin Baker

  You know, SpaceX was a magical moment. And there's only one SpaceX, but to quote Bill Belichick, you know, it's on to Cincinnati. Got it. And there's a lot I think I had for SpaceX, so the SpaceX story isn't over.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  no it definitely has appreciated in value um especially over the last few years and so that's

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  the majority of the fund is in spacex i think that's the big winner yeah so i think maybe people who want access to spacex this is just a convenient way to get in there

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  attribute that towards enthusiasm and the pent-up demand to own spacex and whatever else is in there

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So SpaceX, we see as a major enabler of us, right? They obviously launch and they're putting satellites up. They also run their own constellation, which is something like Starlink, but that is fundamentally different than being a bus vendor.

• bullish fact_claim Ian Cinnamon

  On top of that, SpaceX is launching more and more frequently,

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  the launch has come down by 90%. So that's becoming a less critical component of this. Although you need to, you know, book time on Falcon nine, and I'm sure that's becoming competitive.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  If you think of SpaceX reducing the cost by 90% to launch, you still need to reduce the cost massively to satellites to get a lot of them out into space.

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  since spacex has become such a huge hit we're seeing a ton of people investing in space related startups in the venture community

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  spacex famously has a tender twice a year where they let all their employees or their current employees sell via a specific price they control the process they bring in the buyers and everything

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  it seems. I mean, they're a decade behind, but it's viable. It's nowhere near what SpaceX is doing,

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  During the three day journey, the ship will orbit Earth every 90 minutes along a customized flight path.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  SpaceX is going to be putting four passengers in orbit, not for three or four minutes, but for three days in the fall.

• bullish endorsement Brian Singerman

  I mean, I mentioned before that we've put SpaceX in multiple funds, we don't really think through reserves in a fund, we think through make put most money into best companies possible at best price possible. And maybe that's one of our own companies. And maybe we've invested a previous fund, but great. So we'll put it in the next one, like founders on two owned 10% of SpaceX or whatever that didn't stop founders from four founders from five founders from growth, founders from growth to, you know

• bullish assessment Brian Singerman

  I can take you through SpaceX because it's actually the thing that attracted me to the fund in the first place. I was doing my own small fund while still at Google, made friends with Sean Parker. And he was like, hey, come check out what we're doing over here at Founders Fund. That's the time when they were starting to consider investing in this ridiculous rocket company called SpaceX. I got to tell you, when we were looking at that, obviously, those guys knew Elon extremely well from the PayPal

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  can you imagine spacex if, if Elon went to aerojet rocket dine for engines? Yeah. Like Merlin's is like, how many do you want all of them? Right. It would take them five years to decide whether they wanted to do it, let alone to go invent and move with their speed.

• bullish prediction David Friedberg

  We're going to go to Mars because of this

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  the cost per kilogram of like the space shuttle delta heavy. Exactly. Uh, here comes Falcon one, Falcon nine, Falcon heavy. And then here's the starship estimate. And what this chart shows is a slow curve coming down and then

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  You know, it's kind of like Uber or Stripe or SpaceX in that regard. You say space, you say finance, you say transportation. Like one name comes to mind.

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  And to me, I don't see SpaceX doing that. I haven't heard rumblings about that.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  So SpaceX is probably it.

• bullish fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  he can catch a rocket with a pair of chopsticks.

• bullish endorsement David Friedberg

  And they're standing on the shoulders. I assume you would agree of SpaceX, which showed, you know, Hey, you can, you can have the government as a client and it will work out pretty well. And you can actually make things that kick ass that they didn't ask for that they will eventually buy from you. And all my friends who are SpaceX, venture capital, his investors, founder fund, et cetera, they're feeling pretty good about the investment now. So it's kind of a big unlock.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  In fact, like the space market, which I'm very familiar with was like this pre SpaceX on both launch, launch vehicles, satellites, uh, you name it. It's this exact same problems. Uh, there's just been a new entrant that fixed it.

• neutral prediction Chamath Palihapitiya

  spacex i don't expect those to come out anytime soon

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  consumers know a winner earlier than the companies go public and so they want to get in on winners earlier and they don't have access to it

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  it's probably because the value of spacex keeps going up so it might have been like when it was a hundred billion dollar company as opposed to a 400 billion dollar company

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  i would love to see starlink as part of tesla i know this sounds crazy but imagine every tesla had a starlink built into the hood or built into the roof the trunk whatever then they all propagated wi-fi networks everywhere so you would be driving or whatever you'd have two million cars every year go on the road with a wi-fi network you would have high speed internet everywhere a tesla was you know no matter where you are in the world if you owned a tesla or you had a starlink account you could t

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  you know no matter where you are in the world if you owned a tesla or you had a starlink account you could then piggyback onto other people's it would be extraordinary

• bullish endorsement Alex Wilhelm

  i would love to see starlink as part of tesla i know this sounds crazy but imagine every tesla had a starlink built into the hood or built into the roof the trunk whatever then they all propagated wi-fi networks everywhere so you would be driving or whatever you'd have two million cars every year go on the road with a wi-fi network you would have high-speed internet everywhere a tesla was

• mixed assessment Dave McClure

  We have Canva at SpaceX in our portfolios because I worked at Founders Fund and I ran $500. We're not usually buying those assets direct. And, you know, the top 20 names are in extreme demand, lots of people who want to buy those things. Generally, they're not available. So you're buying them at a premium, usually in SPVs, maybe even multilayered SPVs with lots of carry and fees. They're great companies if you can get them. But sometimes the structure and price is excessive.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  starship is ginormous when compared to the falcon and the other rockets uh that spacex has produced i got to see it actually i went to bokeh and when you look inside that nose cone uh you can fit 300 people in it uh it is a payload that is absolutely unprecedented in terms of sending people or things to space and the fact that this has succeeded means all um uh the folks at spacex need to do is to scale it and they're pretty good at scaling things they just had their hundredth landing of their s

• bullish assessment Max Chafkin

  it's hard to imagine SpaceX, like, I think SpaceX, you know, maybe probably succeed, would succeed if, if Peter hadn't invested in it, but certainly would have. Yeah. But, but he played a big role in, in, in making sure that at a very difficult time in kind of the business trajectory of Elon Musk, when during the recession and stuff, you know, he was there.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  the big win is what space X is doing. They're going to do point to point in the world. Um, and I think they can hold 300 people on theirs, which is bonkers. I think that'll be five or 10 years out.

• neutral fact_claim Alex Fielding

  SpaceX has got it to 5,000 bucks a kilo. If you want to put something in space, if you want to put that Coke can in space, you could do it for 5,000 bucks a kilo.

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  Obviously, getting to space, thanks to Elon and SpaceX and a number of other players, but mainly Elon, they've got them really cheap. It turns out when you reuse the rockets, you can get a lot more stuff up there and bigger payloads.

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  and that is why friends that's why spacex just raised on a slight up round that's my hot take

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  so tesla so spacex sorry spacex has this great business where the rockets make money the satellites make money and they can pay for each other so the in the cost of putting up all that infrastructure is completely worth it and maybe even like evens itself out

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  yeah it's business operating now like basically but you can start to do segmented pricing when you have enough kind of critical mass and economies of scale of satellites in orbit then you and then there will

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  so there's a big prize at stake here you start thinking about those numbers and then you think about how profitable this could be the satellite array that constellation is essentially a fixed cost business you put it up there's going to be some maintenance some will come down some will go up but there's a redundancy there i believe so you know they could be lowering the price once it's fixed cost they could start lowering the prices and get more people and you know just combine markets like that

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  you start looking at hundreds of billions of dollars in potential revenue with just a small percentage of the market

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  as you pointed out they did 60 of these launches already and you know they've got the the big mega rocket coming out um you know on the mars trip and and you know going around uh and the moon and stuff like that

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  huge chunks of the united states right you look at like navajo nation there just are not in the middle of the country there just are not high-speed internet solutions available and satellite has basically been a joke internet service and starlink appeared and people were like well yeah great let's go a million

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  starlink surpassed a million subscribers in 2022 that was fast

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  starlink is uh the investable opportunity here i mean that's sort of where the that's like the secret money maker i think that people hadn't necessarily realized

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  so i feel very bullish about spacex because of starlink but

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  we have major news out of spacex we are off and running with a big raise and an up round to start the year it's not all gloom and doom fantastic

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  what we witnessed today shows i think a couple lessons for founders who listen to this podcast rapid iteration and incremental progress right this has been almost two decades in the making oh we're in the second decade of spacex and they just have been incrementally making these systems more powerful more reliable

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  this is the start of what will be a humanity changing platform and it really is a platform for putting large amounts of cargo into space and then elon's obviously stated mission is to get to mars

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  success was defined really by just accomplishing two things one and spacex was pretty clear about this elon was pretty clear about it hey can they get this thing off the launch pad and when you see this thing in person it's unbelievable the scale of it but could they clear that launch pad and that is they cleared very easily

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  starship is a really different beast is the most powerful rocket that's uh ever been developed by humanity

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  the key to what spacex is doing if the rockets become reusable then you can lower the cost of getting to space economics drives a lot of things in the world and getting to space faster and cheaper with reusable rockets is a critical piece of this

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  the falcon series of rockets is what spacex is most known for and they have had 221 mission successes with that rocket i believe it's the most successful rocket in history

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  i was here for the starship launch at starbase and it was an incredible day i would say one of the most intense amazing things i've ever experienced in my life a true privilege uh to witness history

• neutral fact_claim Matthew Gialich

  we can start to talk about buying entire falcon 9 instead of doing rideshare anymore and sending out multiple missions per rocket or even going i mean i'm sure everybody watched the starship launch right you can see what the future holds for us when we go about this and we talk about sending up hundreds of these vehicles to go out into space and mine

• bullish assessment Matthew Gialich

  spacex has revolutionized the the price to get to space more specifically recently they've revolutionized the price to get to the moon i mean think about it we're launching from the moon if i was going to tell you 10 years ago we were going to fly to the moon you could have laughed me out of the room the rocket at that time would have been a delta 4 and that would have been you know around 400 million dollars we could do it for a fraction of that cost now which then allows us to send these very

• bullish fact_claim Steve Jurvetson

  tesla and spacex are fundamentally software companies that is the basis of their competition

• bullish fact_claim Steve Jurvetson

  the automotive industry or the aerospace industry that go decades without a new entrant decades without any change that anyone can point to that's meaningful or disruptive and then the teslas and spacex lead the change

• bullish prediction Steve Jurvetson

  i think tesla and spacex will fit into that uh moniker

• bullish assessment Steve Jurvetson

  when they succeed like tesla or spacex you can see how they've reinvented entire industries

• bullish assessment Steve Jurvetson

  spacex companies like that are very visible ... it's maybe an iconic example of something that very few of us probably thought was a venture investable category

• neutral prediction Delian Asparouhov

  if I were in Gwen Shotwell or Elon shoes, and you're like, Hey, I had, you know, sort of starship online today, is my immediate reaction going to be let me like 10x decrease the cost to see if that actually 20x is the demand? I don't think so. I think what you'll see is like, they basically just swap it in for Falcon 9 launches originally, keep the price point the same. And then maybe they tweak the prices a little bit down and sort of use that to test demand. And they'll probably just figure ou

• bullish assessment Delian Asparouhov

  there's not really a clear competitor to SpaceX. So you know, even if, you know, Elon gets Starship online, he's not going to immediately flow through all the, you know, cost benefit to every single aerospace company, he's going to capture a lot of those profits himself, because he's not going to be incentivized to, there's not any clear competition coming online, it's been basically eight years now, since the Falcon nine landed for the first time, nobody else has landed a rocket in the last eig

• bullish assessment Delian Asparouhov

  that's basically where we are in like, you know, the sort of the space economy where, you know, SpaceX and rocket lab and these groups are the equivalent of like AWS coming online and think about it to sort of how many net new business models that enabled were like, Uber never had to think about like, you know, server, you know, sort of scale up. And you know, what that meant, they could instead focus just on like, their front end application and like acquiring drivers, it's sort of the equivale

• bullish fact_claim Delian Asparouhov

  SpaceX has recently launched what's known as like the transporter series of rockets, where basically, rather than having to book a whole rocket yourself, you can now instead basically book an individual slot, like the equivalent of, you know, sort of Uber rideshare, and they make it pretty flexible of like, if you miss your ride, it's fine to like rebook and go on to, you know, sort of the next one, that's like three or four months later. And so now rather than before rockets were like, Oh my go

• bullish assessment Delian Asparouhov

  a SpaceX rocket had basically launched and landed four times in a row. And that to me was basically the marker of hey, the economics of this, like, you know, business model that I've been thinking about for the past decade finally makes sense where up until then, you know, everything was basically NASA sponsored on the International Space Station, it only made sense for the government to do is highly expensive, not possible to commercialize. But now Elon was launching landing rocks all time now

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I think Elon's influence and his success with SpaceX has a big influence on people doing harder tech, you know, and focusing on problems with real modes that are really hard and the commitment level.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  even in large companies like SpaceX that you would argue should start to feel like the culture of a fang given how large the corporation is, even there, there's a significant amount of comfort of like, look, at the end of the day, we do sometimes launch, you know, Starlink, but we also sometimes launch Air Force, Navy, you know, Space Force, you know, sort of type satellites.

• bullish prediction David Friedberg

  if you are selling chat GPT subscriptions... I said, here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features. So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on

• mixed criticism Lon Harris

  The last thing I'll say in terms of in the plus category, and I think as a user, this is a plus. As a publisher, media, copyright holder, I would not think it's a plus. But it's very easy to work around. There are guardrails to prevent you. If you just wrote like Shrek at a rave, it might be like, we can't do that because Shrek is a licensed character. But you can, like in this case, I didn't say a character name. I said a Jedi Knight talks his way out of a parking ticket.

• bullish assessment Lon Harris

  And it is, it's sort of functioning like an agent. And it is tied into your chat GPT account. So if you use yourself and you say, Lon Harris is on a talk show, it'll have the talk show interviewer ask me like, so what movies have you seen lately? Or tell us what it's like working with Jason. Like, it knows me from my chat GPT. And it implies that to my sore eclipse, which is... And it landed a joke here when it said it's cold out here. That's what I mean. It's a bit chilly out here. It is that n

• bullish assessment Lon Harris

  It's not creepy. It's not in that uncanny valley. They've made it to the other side of the valley, which a lot of people, myself included, didn't necessarily think they were going to.

• bullish assessment Lon Harris

  I do feel like this is a genuine step up from where we've been.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  It has reached the absolute top of the iOS app store here in the United States, besting even ChatGPT, besting even Google Gemini, which means that OpenAI has yet another hit on its hand. If you don't know what Sora is, it's a new social app from OpenAI using the Sora 2 model that allows you to create social-ish videos of yourself using AI. And it has a cameo feature, Jason, that lets you put yourself into the action. I'm a little surprised for an invite-only product that it reached the number on

• bearish criticism David Friedberg

  I think it's a bad trade. I think when they go public, they might have a hard time sustaining this price. It could go to a trillion based on people being enthusiastic or irrationally exuberant. If you remember those two words from another era, irrational exuberance. We are in the irrational exuberance era right now with private companies like OpenAI. It's nothing personal to them or Sam. It's just the demand is too high for these shares. If I was an employee, I would sell every share I have. I l

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  which people are taking to indicate that they're big believers in the company.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  Not a demand issue, a supply issue. Employees in the company didn't put up as many shares as they could have in this tender offer

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  This is a secondary share sale, folks, so it's employees selling their shares.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  the tender offer was worth about $6.6 billion in total.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  it is now the most valuable private company in the world.

• bearish criticism David Friedberg

  Maybe Midjourney should have done Vibes. Maybe they should have hired 10 more developers to do Sora, right? And make an app and a social network. So they're probably not taking advantage of the moment enough and not putting that work, putting that to work.

• neutral assessment Jason Calacanis

  I think the entire future of Reddit is to go there and get an LLM search box and then underneath it have, you know, make it look like Google with the search box or perplexity or anybody, Brave Search, DuckDuckGo, DuckDuckGo, have it be a search engine and underneath it have all of the top communities. And then it should be studying you and doing your for you page and serving you up stuff. And they really should just assume that the era of free search engine traffic is going to be deprecated slow

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  Well, ironic because Reddit does have a deal with Google that pays them for access to their information. And as we talked about it, I think at the end of last year, Reddit put together its own search product that you and I were pretty bullish on, but then doesn't seem to be discussed or mentioned. I never see people using it. So I wonder if their own kind of in-house search portal is a bit of a flop, which surprises me, frankly, given that I thought that was going to be successful.

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  So here's a recent chart of Reddit's financial performance as a stock, Jason. Clearly it's taken quite a lot of blows. It was around 240 earlier in the week and now it is down to $208 per share. So yes, a lot of downward pressure there, perhaps from the Google SEO situation.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  I think that's like a backdoor hack for these brands.

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  So the cost of capital for AI companies is very cheap right now. So it probably does not matter if they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars, if they lose an extra $1 or $2 million a month at this point in time. ... So getting continued growth and having more users sign up for free and then funneling the free users into the paid product. And then, of course, I'm sure these browsers will have advertising built into them. The other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  And in that setup, if they lose a lot of money on inference costs in the interim, do they really care? Because they're going to sell the company anyways.

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  I thought it was relatively bold of perplexity with a company that, you know, presumably loses money to take on more costs. So I was trying to sort out the why here. I'm curious if they're trying to angle for an acquisition, because as you said, if every major LLM company wants to own a browser, why not go buy one from a company that has already proven its ability to attract millions of people to its browser and maybe grow your overall market share?

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  I think they probably did this right. They knew it was, when you use the Comet browser or any of these AI browsers, I think your utilization of AI goes way up. It's just front and center in the browser. So you're probably costing them more money and they probably were concerned. ... Anyway, the big story next year will be we invested all this CapEx on servers, on data centers, on energy. And when is the ROIC, return on invested capital, going to show up? ... So that is the question of the hour.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So the latest news is that Perplexity, Jason, a company that's best known for its AI Surge products and also launched the Comet AI-infused browser that we talked about on the show a number of times, not only made the browser available for free instead of just for some of its paid users, but also just took the waitlist off of it. Said it had millions of people waiting to use it. And this is a pretty aggressive move. Previously a gated feature, now available for all.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  I don't have enough information to know, but I mean, it's, I mean, I think there'll be, I think there'll be a billion people who are paying for Starlink eventually.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  I mean, if, if they broke out Starlink, how much would that company be worth, Jason? I think it's a hundred billion dollar company out of the gate.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  People want, um, to have Starlink. Yeah. Oh, Starlink.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I know that there's a great business in, you know, sending stuff up there, but you know, Elon found a business a lot of people are willing to pay for, which is SpaceX.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  I think Google, by the way, was one of the major investors in SpaceX. So they have a huge position.

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  Not a SpaceX holder, except maybe through a venture firm I'm in. Okay. And I would say I have no inside information. I think that that is, I would take the, I think that's under, I would say it's a 90% chance. So I think there's some money to be made there.

• neutral fact_claim David Sacks

  There are 11,000 satellites. 6,000, 6,500 of those are SpaceX satellites. So there's 65% of the ones out there.

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  SpaceX has put up over 11,000 Starlink satellites total adjacent. There's 9,500 that are currently operational.

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  this year Starship will begin delivering the much more powerful V3 strong satellites to orbit with each launch adding more than 20 times the capacity to the constellation as the current Falcon launches.

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapatiya

  He's building a factory to build Starships at an alarming rate. I've seen the factory down there. It's pretty crazy. I think they'll be able to put up... multiple launches per day, thousands of launches per year.

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  you put those solar panels out there, they don't have the atmosphere to fight to get the energy of the sun. Then you, behind the solar panels, have something that dissipates energy. And then you have the data center up there, which means it's in the cool of space. You don't have to cool the data center. Then you don't have a real estate costs. And these things could daisy chain in some way, either lasers between them to send the data. And then obviously he's got the Starlink. So imagine you had

• bullish prediction David Sacks

  My estimate is that within two to three years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space. This is because compute on the earth, this is me adding, is more expensive. Factories on the moon can take advantage of lunar resources to manufacture satellites and deploy them further into space by using an electromagnetic mass driver and lunar manufacturing. It is possible to put 500 to 1,000 terabytes a year of AI satellites into deep space, meaningfully ascend the Kardashev scale and

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  So in this case, what Elon did with lowering the price to get to space allows this company, you know, to Astroforge, to then build and stand on his shoulders.

• bullish prediction Chamath Palihapitiya

  i think it's going to be a massive amount of recirculation i think it's going to save you know these ipos if stripe goes out discord goes out spacex and then these two wild cards i you know open ai and um anthropic uh this is going to reinvigorate venture capital which under biden's four years of the wrath of lena khan was considered the worst asset class now we're going to go back to it being the best asset class and everybody's going to want to slice after the last five years

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  i think there's a lot of other things that are really exciting about spacex so obviously lp liquidity is something that's been top of mind for every single lp across the board now given how many of them have you know interest in spacex right now priming the pump getting some liquidity back to lps to redeploy it into the venture ecosystem i think it's going to be a net positive also when you think about the early employees of spacex every early founder i think can be more aggressive if they have

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  they might run away with it but i also think there's a lot of form factors that make a lot of sense here like i think one thing that astronomers is doing that spacex isn't to date at least is servicing you know specific countries specific companies and so if you want your own dedicated brawn bad access um you can get that through astronomers and not necessarily through spacex but spacex is certainly much larger especially right now

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  spacex has basically built up you know the best you know sort of telecommunications business you know sort of ever made you know um you know through through starlink and they're obviously using you know so that advantage to tackle some even broader markets they also are you know probably the only people that have the ability to really take us to like the moon and mars in a super meaning you know who knows what the like sort of uncapped you know sort of potential upside of that is um let's see wh

• neutral fact_claim Alex Wilhelm

  1.75 trillion dollars theoretically is what the company is targeting

• bullish assessment Sal Chury

  when it lists it'll be one of the largest companies in the world and as jason points out you might end up getting a company that is kind of an amalgam of all of elon's industries which looks almost like a parallel economy in itself yeah uh it's kind of an insane it's an insane thing i think it's gonna be great i mean there's so much there's so much liquidity tied up in this company uh there's so many people who are so convicted on it uh but but i think you know um it'll be one of the greatest we

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  i think the bigger most interesting part of this is elon inc again no inside information i've met elon a couple of times uh i it's quite possible that this is you know uh the flop and then the turn and the river are to come uh and if this is the flop and the turn and the river to come the next discussion is going to be merging with tesla and then you're going to be able to buy the stock dollar sign elon and you know boring company neural income in next and you can just buy a 10 trillion dollar c

• neutral fact_claim Larson Jensen

  bloomberg reported that spacex has filed confidentially to go public this means they're targeting probably a june ipo lots to come on the story jason but finally we're here we're making steps towards what could be the biggest ipo of all time

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  fire emoji wow very strategic and bold move colossus which is the xai supercomputer is a super weapon for space x already can you imagine when it scales to the stars

• neutral fact_claim Lon Harris

  spacex and cursor are partnering on ai models of course cursor the popular ai coding model and harness company they're going to work together to create and i quote the world's best coding and knowledge work ai as a team or as cursor put it we're partnering with spacex to improve composer so the idea is that it's it's sort of a collaboration but it's also sort of an early announcement of a potential acquisition spacex is going to either pay cursor 10 billion dollars for this model collaboration t

• bullish prediction Jenny

  my understanding of lps is that um you know they kind of work on you know sentiment and vibes and not necessarily reality so i think seeing a few things gives them hope and we start i mean we can literally track this like the amount of inbound we get from lps and how fast they kind of get back to us based on some of these ipos so i don't think that move the needle necessarily but i think there's a lot of anticipation of some bigger ones and i think those will move the needle but we're actually s

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  starlink has basically just like completely uh blocked that capability or made it like so inaccurate that you know it's it's maybe like 50 kilometers precise unless you pay them a bunch of money for like military starlink uh contract

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  you're gonna see starlink direct to cell you're gonna see like a tiny little chip that connects your phone or your drone to a satellite um from anywhere in the world where spacex lets you do that

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  yeah it's just like a physics problem um they have a highly directional antenna uh and it's uh it makes it much more difficult to uh to jam that that kind of phased array

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  We don't have, we're not working with, with, with SpaceX on this. They, they want to do their way anyway

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  Well, SpaceX needs to do it, you know, well needs to do tankers, uh, in order to go, go to the moon and do the things they want to do. And hopefully they'll eventually do propellant depots. So probably, you know, five, 10 years out.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  So it basically, um, does what Falcon heavy does for tens of millions of dollars, less money.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  SpaceX recently had a big success with its Starship craft.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  SpaceX has filed the go public, bringing the world's leading space launch and connectivity company to the public markets at last.

• neutral fact_claim Page

  as i was reading the s1 one of the things that was that surprised me was the focus on energy as the core bottleneck of ai and i guess like i hadn't learned that they were like one of the core points was we're going to use the sun to make energy for ai and i thought that was really interesting

• bearish prediction Tamaz

  i think i'm going to wait i'm sure there'll be a huge surge and then it will come back down and trade so i'm going to uh to give it a couple quarter or two before getting some exposure

• bullish fact_claim Tomas Tungus

  the spacex ipo was two and a half maybe three times oversubscribed which was a stunning number just considering that the sum total of those three offerings that you mentioned spacex open ai and anthropic if they raise what they intended to would be greater than the sum total of all ipos dollars raised in the previous decade so it clearly is just huge demand uh for exposure to ai and space

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  Because that's the exciting part about this for me, Skylar, is so many entrepreneurs now, because you can get to space for 10 times less, are now going.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  And back to SpaceX, I mean, I think it solves an interesting problem for Elon where, you know, you're building all these data centers in space. You have any customers. I mean, it doesn't matter. But I think that was one of the big problems that cursor had was just you had to pay all your revenue out to someone and now they're not paying the revenue out. So you just when they build their next model, you know, that's going to be built on the Colossus stack. So that is a huge advantage.

• bullish assessment Ben Ling

  I agree with Jason. I think it's an incredible acquisition. Number one, it changes the narrative. It augments the narrative of SpaceX being an AI-native platform.

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  Somehow Elon and Cursor got together, Elon being a little bit behind with his LLM being in third or fourth place. And they decided, hey, we have all this Colossus sitting here, peanut butter, chocolate. They were going to raise, I heard on the street, at $40 billion. So I think Elon gave them a 50% premium. So Cursor was at the time, I think when they did this deal, at $2 billion run rate. Now that they have Colossus behind them, and they have essentially unlimited compute, and when compute goes

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  spacex is doing amazing as well uh we saw the launcher starship the other day and i have just been mesmerized by all these unboxing videos for starlink which you can see on youtube and it is just magic that you can unbox this little satellite dish plug it in and you have broadband internet from space

• bullish fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  a company called relativity space is now the second most valuable private space flight company after spacex

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  it's the taxpayers money that's going to SpaceX and others for contract services that ultimately fuels this innovation engine.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  funding SpaceX and these, or it's not funding, it's contracts with SpaceX to deliver the product is a much better idea than having the government trying to develop it itself.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  the government creates all these great contract incentives. This is, this is a good role for government, right? They come in, they create all these contract incentives. SpaceX been making all this money from the US government. And then they take that money and they invest in creating the space race, this industry that, you know, could absolutely transform humanity for the centuries to come.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  SpaceX had historic landing. And that was following the horrific explosion with a bunch of stuff and payloads. So that was a nice comeback for Elon and the SpaceX team.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  Elon's rocket was a lot bigger than Bezos' and went a lot further.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  I think technically it does not need to partner with governments. Um, but of course, uh, government support would be helpful. Um, so, um, I mean, it's going to be very expensive to build a self-sustaining city on Mars. Like in order for us to become multi-planetary in a way that's meaningful. Um, the, the key threshold is, um, at which point does the city become self-sustaining such that if the ships from earth stopped coming for any reason. And it could be any reason could be world war three, o

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  the revenue generated from Starlink is what can enable the, uh, of a permanently, uh, crude base on the moon, which will be the next, you know, next step from Apollo, which is like, let's just not go there for a few hours and then head back. Let's have a permanently occupied science station on the moon.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  It's, if it was like a three step, a three slide PowerPoint, it would be pretty much as you described, which is, um, develop rockets that are, that are capable of, taking, uh, satellites to orbit and, uh, crew to the space station. Um, you know, basically servicing government commercial, uh, space launch needs, um, and then, uh, uh, build a, a global communication system in space, uh, that obviously it does a lot of good for earth, but by providing, uh, internet content, internet connectivity to

• neutral fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  Um, it is like, you know, uh, that is the idea that you build, um, basically the ability to do orbital cargo, take all those profits.

• bullish assessment Elon Musk

  the goal of spacex is to develop the technology that enables life to become multi-planetary, um, and, uh, and make humanity a space-faring civilization, which I think is very exciting, inspiring thing.

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  I think this Russia thing was probably really good for spacex.

• bullish assessment Elon Musk

  both space X and Tesla have, um, you know, significant cash reserves. So like, you know, it's not worth staring death in the face.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  both SpaceX and Tesla in 2008, if we'd simply paid our suppliers on time, we would have gone bankrupt immediately.

• neutral fact_claim David Friedberg

  And people also forget at the time that the first two rockets spacex sent up, uh, didn't exactly make it to orbit. Like the first three.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  like SpaceX would start up from scratch, you know, in, in the case of, of Tesla, uh, you know, it was like five people.

• bullish assessment Antonio Gracias

  SpaceX is an end of one. If you compare that to someone making an electric vehicle that, say, an electric airplane or electric VTOL, that will not be an end of one. It will be an end of many and an end of many business you're ultimately going to have margin competition that's going to make it that return on capital goes down to basic industrial margins. You know, like it won't be that much better than Boeing's ROIC or Airbus's ROIC because those will be ultimate competitors.

• bullish assessment Antonio Gracias

  in a company like SpaceX? A lot of capital is going in but we know that if it works and we believe it will work, we're ultimately going to have a company that has tremendous margins even in the industrial sector because of the industry structure it's in. It lives in an oligopoly inside the U.S. and outside the U.S. So it's like in Building Starlink, same thing, capital going in but we know that the margins and the profitability of that business on the back end will be very, very high and so the

• bullish assessment Antonio Gracias

  we may never find something that's as important as to how it's SpaceX again,

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  even if you're working on a screw at SpaceX, you're, it rolls up to the mission. You understand how what you do connects to that big vision.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  People don't know, but before SpaceX, his idea was he wanted to back up the biosphere. ... And his idea was to build, like the movie Silent Running, great 1970s fiction film with Bruce Dern, to put giant biospheres and send everything up there, like those seed banks, but put it all up in space. And he's like, he went to see the Russians. To buy a rocket. To buy a rocket, to do it or buy a carriage on the rocket. And then he realized, oh my God, maybe I should just build the rocket. So biosphere

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  And then he would jump right into, oh, we're going to put these solar panels in space and that's how we're going to power the data center.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  So on the West Coast, we're just like, yeah, obviously like that's the future. Let's see if he can do it. Yeah. And then you're looking for a hundred X. And then the people on Wall Street are looking for 10%, 15% year over year growth.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  Short-term, you know, you have Starlink. Mid-term, you have Starlink to phones. Long-term, you have data centers in the moon base. And maybe taking things off asteroids and other businesses yet to emerge.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  But then there's this business of, oh, well, what about data centers? What about a moon base? What about a Mars base? These are venture-type businesses to this day.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  If the guy can deliver Starlink, the largest constellation, what are the chances he can deliver it to your phone and scale it from, I think, 10 million members, subscribers to 100 million? I think the answer's 99.999%. I think it's like fait accompli.

• neutral assessment Jason Calacanis

  It's a financial transaction. It unlocks a lot of possibilities. One of the possibilities an IPO unlocks is capital. So, he's got $75 billion, I think. And maybe with the green shoe, it's 80 or 85 billion. The green shoe is like a little extra shares that could be sold. So, it's a very small float.

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  I would like to see him get back to landing rockets on barges, getting to Mars. Let's get it. Let's get it. Get it.

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  This is a man who has essentially proven that he can bend the laws of physics on behalf of humanity. He's done it twice. Once in electric cars and once in rocketry.

• bullish prediction Chamath Palihapitiya

  I think that in order for Elon to have complete financial flexibility and do what he needs to do. And, you know, he talked about this on our pod about the difficulties and the dangers of margin loans and all of that stuff. Yes. He's going to create breathing room for himself. Ah, this is the simplest and most obvious way for him to do it. It'll give him a ton of more dry powder.

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  SpaceX is clearly just crushing on all cylinders. And they're really the only game in town with respect to launch capability.

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  You can put out more, and they're obviously going to be more powerful. And if you have seen the size of the satellite, I have Starlink at both houses, the ski house and my main house as a backup, it's getting scary how good it is. And if you look at the size of them, and again, I don't want to speak about any future products, it's not my place. But if you see the size getting smaller, there's one or two things that we all know about technology, cheaper, faster, better, smaller.

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  he said, listen, 5050, we get off the launch pad. Yeah, if we can get off the launch pad, and we don't blow up the launch pad, that's a huge success.

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  from the point of view of the people who are there, it was a triumph and it was exciting because of the data that was collected and the fact that this rocket even got off the earth and achieved this for four minutes

• bullish endorsement Antonio

  this is, this is 20 plus years of work. And, you know, Elon was here in the room with the engineers and it just seeing him light up, seeing the joy that he felt, seeing the joy the engineers felt together for me. And having been a board member here, an investor for a long time, and sort of been a bit along this company and seeing develop, it, it brought a real sense of, of hope for what's going to happen to this country and what's happening to humanity.

• bullish prediction Kevin

  Yeah, there will be no more trans-Pacific or trans-Atlantic cargo flights, I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.

• bullish fact_claim Gavin Baker

  you are lifting more than five times the mass to orbit. And based on other statements, that 100 metric tons is a very conservative estimate. And you're doing it at call it 10 to 15% of the cost. So this is a, you know, we can all do the math, but we can envelope it, you know, roughly a 50 X huge change. And this, you know, massively changes unit economics for Starlink for sending anything into orbit.

• bullish assessment Antonio Gracias

  it is a step function change. It's not like a small change. It's an enormous change

• bullish prediction Gavin Baker

  once you do that, they should be able to send over 100 metric tons to orbit at a variable cost of under $2 million per public data.

• neutral prediction Antonio Gracias

  it'll take at least two or three months to really get the pad rebuilt and get another vehicle back on for testing, maybe longer.

• bullish assessment Antonio Gracias

  This was a huge win. I mean, it was an enormous win for the company, an enormous win for the country, just getting it off the pad and collecting the data. And now we know it works.

• bullish prediction Antonio Gracias

  this vehicle will get to orbit. And this is the vehicle that's going to take us to Mars.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  Well, I mean, let's just clarify here, um, you know, SpaceX has no, uh, SpaceX and Starlink have no business in China whatsoever. They're not, they're not allowed, you know, SpaceX doesn't launch, uh, China satellites, and Starlink is, uh, abandoned in China. So, to be clear, SpaceX, Starlink, zero business in China.

• bearish criticism Elon Musk

  Um, you know, now, all of the, you know, other sort of providers, U.S. providers of support to Ukraine are being paid. So, then, why should SpaceX be excluded? That doesn't make sense. We're, we're, we're doing one of the most valuable things. And yet, we aren't getting the least money in the system, sir. Um, but, you know, despite that, we're still happy to keep, keep it going.

• bearish fact_claim Elon Musk

  if we were to get, say, uh, our control center were, uh, take down a cyber attack, they, you know, command all the satellites to the orbit. Um, and destroy the entire system. Uh, or use anti-satellite weapons. Um, so, you know, these are, this is a pretty significant risk. Um, for which we have not received any compensation.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  at one point, uh, you calculated on our sort of cost of sporting things that are roughly a hundred million dollars. Now, the hundred million dollars does not count, um, the massive risk to the entire Starlink constellation.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  It is the only thing that works on the war front. Everything else has been jammed by the Russians.

• bullish assessment Elon Musk

  Starlink is the fundamental communication backbone of the Ukrainian government and essential services, like first responders and that kind of thing.

• neutral fact_claim David Sacks

  if you had never given Starlink to the Ukrainian government for free, voluntarily, you just volunteered it, then no one would be attacking you right now.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  the region around Crimea was actually turned off... because the United States had sanctions against Russia... and we're not allowed to actually turn on connectivity to sanction the country without explicit government approval.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  SpaceX have provided Starlink connectivity to Ukraine really since the beginning of the war. ... Starlink was instrumental in the defense of Ukraine... we figured it out of pocket, very significantly, to help them.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  making a rocket that is more than twice the size of a Saturn V... with an extra rub of the rocket, it'll have roughly three times the thrust of a Saturn V moon rocket. ... it's designed to be fully or rapidly reusable... So both the booster and the ship come back to the launch site, they get caught by these giant wreckers alarms... So it will be capable of, you know, basically aircraft level flight rates.

• bullish prediction Elon Musk

  I think we'll have a, I hope, well over 50% chance of getting to stage separation. And maybe a close to 50% chance of getting to orbit if the hot staging, the new separation method, is it works. So I'd say maybe it's like a, you know, above, I'd say probably above 50% chance of getting to orbit this time, whereas previously I said below 50%.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  We have the second one stacked at Starbase, so it's ready to go. ... We believe we've completed the remaining items requested by the FAA, so we should get our license hopefully soon. But really, the only thing holding back the second planet of Starship at this point is the record for approval.

• bullish prediction Elon Musk

  for a lot of, I think for some people, the sonic connection on the plane will be better than their connection at their house.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  There are a number of airliners that have Starlink, and there will be a lot more in the future.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  The Starlink connection, assuming it's working properly, is you won't even be able to tell you're on the ground or in the air. Because unlike the geosynchronous satellites, the latency is, you know, really can be less than 20 milliseconds.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  I'm in flight, currently. So this is a Starlink and flight connection.

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  Starlink is the only company that has that capability today. It's the only one that has that capability if you look forward a few years. It is by far the best at providing broadband from space, which is the best way to get into these rural areas.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  And Starlink obviously is perfect for that. It's actually the only solution for this really. She can't run fiber to these locations.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  On Tuesday, the FCC rejected Starlink's application for 900 million in subsidies for rural broadband. Starlink originally won these back in 2020 when they agreed to provide high-speed internet to 640,000 rural homes across 35 states. Funding would have come from the RDOF, Rural Digital Opportunity Fund.

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  I think SpaceX has really turned a corner. Starlink is really at scale. Starship looks like it's viable.

• bullish endorsement David Sacks

  yeah i have an elon exception okay it's about the founder we're in our portfolio allocation we say this much early stage this much late stage this much elon elon exception yeah i mean you you have to be so dogged to to want to take something like this on because the good stuff happens like you're saying freeberg you're seven eight nine ten as opposed

• bullish prediction Aileen

  But there's a lot of money that's going to get distributed with SpaceX.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  a lot of people think, well, SpaceX is super dependent on the government. And I actually know most of our revenue is commercial.

• bullish assessment Elon Musk

  the fundamental Holy grail breakthrough for rocketry for what the fundamental breakthrough that is needed for life to become multi-planetary is a rapidly reusable, reliable rocket.

• bullish prediction Elon Musk

  we, we, we, we think we'll be able to have to, to launch reliably and repeatedly and quite quickly.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  we were able to successfully reach oval velocity twice. Uh, we were able to achieve soft landings of the booster and the ship and water. Uh, and that's despite the ship having, you know, half its flaps cooked off.

• mixed prediction Elon Musk

  if we can get some improvement in the speed of regulation, we, we could actually move a lot faster.

• bullish prediction Elon Musk

  I'm confident it will succeed. It's simply a matter of time.

• bullish assessment Elon Musk

  so with starship is the first rocket design. Um, where success is one of the possible outcomes with full reusability.

• mixed criticism Elon Musk

  You know, it, it, it, it really should not be possible to build a giant rocket faster than the paper can move from one desk to another.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  The next flight of starship, um, which, um, you know, starship is, the next flight starship is ready to fly. We are waiting for regulatory approval.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  this will be the first time, uh, the first private, the first, first commercial for space walk. Um, and, and it'll be at the highest altitude, uh, since Apollo. So it's the furthest from earth that anyone's gone.

• bearish fact_claim Elon Musk

  SpaceX was fined by the EPA $140,000 for, um, they claimed dumping, uh, potable water on the ground, uh, drinking water. So, and we're like, it's, we're in a truck, tropical, uh, thunderstorm region. Um, that stuff comes from the sky all the time and, um, and there was zero harm done, you know, it was just water to cool the, the, the launch pad during, uh, liftoff and, um, they agree, yes, there's zero harm done. And we're like, okay, so there's no harm done. And, um, but you want us to pay a $1

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  I just expect him and his teams to figure it out. Like they're just all so good. It's, and the thing to remember, it's not just him that's incredible, but he attracts a kind of technical and operational wonder kind people. For sure. And that's just, that's just a really special thing. So I had, I had that reaction, which was, I was really proud and happy for them. For the team. Yeah, for sure. For the team. And for him, these guys are like incredibly fearless.

• bullish fact_claim David Friedberg

  To be more specific, you don't want it to have feet.

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  And we can talk about why this is so important in this segment, but technically, the achievement of this skyscraper falling out of the sky and perfectly aligning itself to go into that chopstick catching device, it is an absolute marvel of human ingenuity. And the work and the effort that people put into this over several decades, it's just such an incredible feat.

• neutral fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  SpaceX uses these stable coins. How? How do you think they collect payments from all the Starlink customers when they aggregate them in all of these long-tail countries? They don't want to necessarily take the FX risk, the foreign exchange risk. They don't want to deal with sending wires. So what they do is they'll swap into stable coin, send it back to the United States, and then swap back to US dollars. So it's a very useful utility.

• neutral fact_claim Howard Lutnick

  so that i can run canada fitzgerald you can run spacex right you're not you don't have to sign the conflict form and all that stuff because you're not working for the government you're just giving stuff to the government yeah you are literally giving of yourself right but you're not looking for anything you're not taking any money you're not owning anything you're not doing anything you're not on that side of the wall you're on this side you're outside yeah right

• neutral fact_claim Jared Isaacman

  he helped with commercial crew return operational capability to the U S with, with dragon

• neutral fact_claim Jared Isaacman

  And we contemplated other missions, you know, a follow-on to Polaris Dawn. And then the first crewed flight is Starship.

• bullish fact_claim Jared Isaacman

  we can build a suit. I know exactly how I would do it. And let's go up really high, you know, let's get past the Gemini 11 record, go farther into space. And anyone's gone since we last walked on the moon, because it's, it's different, it's hard. And we're going to learn a lot.

• bullish fact_claim Jared Isaacman

  it speaks to the confidence of space X that they were ready to sign up for the first commercial, like the first civilian mission to orbit before they even returned operational capability, uh, for human space flight to NASA.

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  the first all civilian space flight using the space X crew dragon. And that was just truly like a momentous mission. It was just so beautiful to watch.

• bullish assessment Jared Isaacman

  it was just a successful mission. It helped open the door for a lot of other commercial missions that come.

• bullish fact_claim Jared Isaacman

  SpaceX was doing another one of its secondary rounds... funding round is closed and we're kind of pretty selective on who we let in.

• neutral fact_claim Jared Isaacman

  if there was more than just SpaceX out there offering the service and you had competition, I probably would have paid less.

• bullish assessment Elon Musk

  the window of opportunity to make life multi-planetary exists now for the first time in the four and a half billion year history of earth.

• bullish prediction Elon Musk

  I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Um, it provided there's an exponential increase in the, in the tonnage to Mars with each success of Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align and you can, you can transfer to Mars. Um, so I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but 10 to 15 ish, uh, Mars transfer windows, if you're, um, seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make M

• bullish assessment Elon Musk

  I do think that there is a fork in the road of human destiny where, if we can establish a self-sustaining city on Mars, with the key test being if the resupply shifts from earth stop coming for any reason, does Mars continue to prosper or does it die out? At the point at which Mars is able to prosper and grow on its own, the probable lifespan of consciousness is dramatically greater because we are no longer dependent on everything going right on earth.

• neutral fact_claim Elon Musk

  no one's ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield. Like, the shuttle heat shield had to go through nine months of repair after every flight.

• bullish endorsement Elon Musk

  by far, I think the most talented group of rocket engineers that's ever been assembled.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  version 3, which is a gigantic upgrade because that's got Raptor 3 and pretty much everything changes on the rocket with version 3. So version 3, you know, might have some initial teething pains because it's such a radical redesign. But it's capable of over 100 tons to orbit, fully reusable.

• bullish prediction Elon Musk

  I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship, and being able to deliver over 100 tons to a useful orbit.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  you should be able to have a Starlink, like you have an AT&T or P-Mobile or Verizon or whatever. You could have an account with Starlink that works with your Starlink antenna at home for your Wi-Fi as well as on your phone. And, yeah, it would be a comprehensive solution for high bandwidth at home and for high bandwidth direct-to-sell.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  But, the net effect is that you should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  And that probably is a two-year time frame. So, the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years. And then, we also need to pull the satellites that are going to communicate on those frequencies. So, in parallel, we're building the satellites and working with the handset makers to add these frequencies to the phones.

• bullish fact_claim Elon Musk

  So, this is kind of a long-term thing. It will allow SpaceX to deliver high bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones.

• neutral fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  spacex enable starlink over iran and then there was the attempt to use that mechanism to get information out to fill in the mosaic right so yeah was what was happening 90 with what was happening 10 was there counter revolutions that were supportive of khomeini none of us knew anything because you would see these snippets and it was very hard to actually triangulate then you had this entire information channel get shut down and you had all kinds of blocking mechanisms that essentially drove the p

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  i actually think jacal i don't think we're going to have like these quote unquote blockbuster stream of ipos i think what happens is spacex is going to get out they're going to do great and then maybe the next one does good to great then the next one will do good and then the appetite runs out

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  i think this is why it makes so much sense for elon to get out first if you think about appetite as equivalent to like a person at a thanksgiving dinner when you first come in and you see all of this stuff it's so plentiful your eyes are bigger than your stomach and i think in a moment like that you want to be the one that is consumed first and i think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space and if you place that analogy i think t

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  the most important positive thing that will happen from the ipo is a validated external mark to market valuation of spacex and the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market assessment of the value of tesla and this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses and i think that that's what elon really needs it'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective it'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non-issue

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  I think these two companies are very complementary.

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  But what's so smart is that where is SpaceX today? Let's call it a trillion. Where could it be? Just for the purpose of this argument, let's say 2 trillion. So when the deal gets done on a stock-for-stock basis, it's going to be, again, if it's $60 billion in tomorrow dollars, effectively Elon's gotten a 50% discount. And what has he bought? He can issue $60 billion of stock at a $2 trillion valuation and get a model and a service that I think is extremely compelling in coding, which is where we

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  SpaceX will either buy Cursor by the end of 2026 for 60 billion, that's 10 billion more than they were rumored to be raising at, or they will pay Cursor $10 billion for their collaboration together. Bloomberg says you can think of that $10 billion essentially as a breakup fee. So I think it's fate accompli that this deal is going to get done.

1. 2028-02-17 goes up 10x or eventually 100x times and that's when they can do all the interesting things like direct to cellular there were some interesting hints that when shotwell talked about about with ground · Prediction · pending
2. 2028-02-16 We're going to go to Mars because of this · Prediction · pending
3. 2028-02-09 i think tesla and spacex will fit into that uh moniker · Prediction · pending
4. 2028-02-09 this is the start of what will be a humanity changing platform and it really is a platform for putting large amounts of cargo into space and then elon's obviously stated mission is to get to mars · Prediction · pending
5. 2028-02-05 i think the bigger most interesting part of this is elon inc again no inside information i've met elon a couple of times uh i it's quite possible that this is you know uh the flop and then the turn and the river are to come uh and if this is the flop and the turn and the river to come the next discussion is going to be merging with tesla and then you're going to be able to buy the stock dollar sign elon and you know boring company neural income in next and you can just buy a 10 trillion dollar c · Prediction · pending
6. 2028-02-05 i think it's going to be a massive amount of recirculation i think it's going to save you know these ipos if stripe goes out discord goes out spacex and then these two wild cards i you know open ai and um anthropic uh this is going to reinvigorate venture capital which under biden's four years of the wrath of lena khan was considered the worst asset class now we're going to go back to it being the best asset class and everybody's going to want to slice after the last five years · Prediction · pending
7. 2028-02-05 My estimate is that within two to three years, the lowest cost way to generate AI compute will be in space. This is because compute on the earth, this is me adding, is more expensive. Factories on the moon can take advantage of lunar resources to manufacture satellites and deploy them further into space by using an electromagnetic mass driver and lunar manufacturing. It is possible to put 500 to 1,000 terabytes a year of AI satellites into deep space, meaningfully ascend the Kardashev scale and · Prediction · pending
8. 2028-02-05 Not a SpaceX holder, except maybe through a venture firm I'm in. Okay. And I would say I have no inside information. I think that that is, I would take the, I think that's under, I would say it's a 90% chance. So I think there's some money to be made there. · Prediction · pending
9. 2028-02-05 if you are selling chat GPT subscriptions... I said, here's how it would work with the New York Times and chat GPT or Grok and Disney, whoever you authenticate with your Disney plus at chat GPT or vice versa. And then it unlocks these features. So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on · Prediction · pending
10. 2028-02-04 my understanding of lps is that um you know they kind of work on you know sentiment and vibes and not necessarily reality so i think seeing a few things gives them hope and we start i mean we can literally track this like the amount of inbound we get from lps and how fast they kind of get back to us based on some of these ipos so i don't think that move the needle necessarily but i think there's a lot of anticipation of some bigger ones and i think those will move the needle but we're actually s · Prediction · pending
11. 2028-01-26 i think i'm going to wait i'm sure there'll be a huge surge and then it will come back down and trade so i'm going to uh to give it a couple quarter or two before getting some exposure · Prediction · confirmed
12. 2028-01-24 I think that in order for Elon to have complete financial flexibility and do what he needs to do. And, you know, he talked about this on our pod about the difficulties and the dangers of margin loans and all of that stuff. Yes. He's going to create breathing room for himself. Ah, this is the simplest and most obvious way for him to do it. It'll give him a ton of more dry powder. · Prediction · confirmed
13. 2028-01-23 for a lot of, I think for some people, the sonic connection on the plane will be better than their connection at their house. · Prediction · pending
14. 2028-01-23 I think we'll have a, I hope, well over 50% chance of getting to stage separation. And maybe a close to 50% chance of getting to orbit if the hot staging, the new separation method, is it works. So I'd say maybe it's like a, you know, above, I'd say probably above 50% chance of getting to orbit this time, whereas previously I said below 50%. · Prediction · pending
15. 2028-01-23 this vehicle will get to orbit. And this is the vehicle that's going to take us to Mars. · Prediction · pending
16. 2028-01-23 once you do that, they should be able to send over 100 metric tons to orbit at a variable cost of under $2 million per public data. · Prediction · pending
17. 2028-01-23 Yeah, there will be no more trans-Pacific or trans-Atlantic cargo flights, I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away. · Prediction · pending
18. 2028-01-23 You can put out more, and they're obviously going to be more powerful. And if you have seen the size of the satellite, I have Starlink at both houses, the ski house and my main house as a backup, it's getting scary how good it is. And if you look at the size of them, and again, I don't want to speak about any future products, it's not my place. But if you see the size getting smaller, there's one or two things that we all know about technology, cheaper, faster, better, smaller. · Prediction · pending
19. 2028-01-21 I'm confident it will succeed. It's simply a matter of time. · Prediction · pending
20. 2028-01-21 we, we, we, we think we'll be able to have to, to launch reliably and repeatedly and quite quickly. · Prediction · pending
21. 2028-01-21 But there's a lot of money that's going to get distributed with SpaceX. · Prediction · pending
22. 2028-01-19 I think unless we have some very major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year, catching both the booster and the ship, and being able to deliver over 100 tons to a useful orbit. · Prediction · pending
23. 2028-01-19 I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Um, it provided there's an exponential increase in the, in the tonnage to Mars with each success of Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align and you can, you can transfer to Mars. Um, so I think in roughly 15, but maybe as few as 10, but 10 to 15 ish, uh, Mars transfer windows, if you're, um, seeing exponential increases in the tonnage to Mars with each Mars transfer window, then it should be possible to make M · Prediction · pending
24. 2028-01-17 SpaceX will either buy Cursor by the end of 2026 for 60 billion, that's 10 billion more than they were rumored to be raising at, or they will pay Cursor $10 billion for their collaboration together. Bloomberg says you can think of that $10 billion essentially as a breakup fee. So I think it's fate accompli that this deal is going to get done. · Prediction · pending

VentureSignalScore 79/100 for spacex, composed from 1 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.79 for 30% signal coverage