Chamath Palihapitiya

This is not him saying we're slowing anything down by any means. He's certainly not going to give up his lead.

this is the most incredible thing that you've done. And then I tweeted this thing out, this hugging face thing will go down as one of the most important transactions in AI, because you are creating now in the largest competitor and the largest, most well capitalized company, a bulwark against all of this closed source oligopoly insanity. And at the same time, what you're going to do is actually create more rational competition up and down the stack. And I mentioned this last week, everybody is b

this hugging face thing will go down as one of the most important transactions in AI, because you are creating now in the largest competitor and the largest, most well capitalized company, a bulwark against all of this closed source oligopoly insanity. And at the same time, what you're going to do is actually create more rational competition up and down the stack.

I think AGI has basically been here since the beginning of the year. There are models that are incredibly performant inside of the closed frontier lab companies. And I think right now we're trying to figure out the right cadence with which to release it.

Clement is the official spokesperson along with Jensen from Nvidia. And, um, those two are now in charge of PR for AI in America. No longer Dario, no longer Sam Altman, no more P doom. I'm putting Clement and Jensen in charge of all PR from this point forward for AI in America. It's a two year term. So they'll, they'll serve out their term. Uh, and for two years may get exciting.

thank God, we have companies like Nvidia and Google and Microsoft and Meta and Amazon who take on that burden.

I think the high end of the market where Mark operates, where the large monoliths operate is quite safe. What people are finding is, hey, hold on a second. This is a lot harder than we thought. It's not like, boop, boop, boop, put in a prompt and beep, bap, boop, it all works. It's not how it works. I think we're a little oversold. Now I think this consolidation and the re-rating can happen in the opposite direction. So what is the opposite trade? The opposite trade is who has constructive net d

And as a consequence, um, you know, we can dramatically reduce the, the, the cost of that commodity.

In order for the rest of us to take on OpenAI, we need to come up with a way that we can work together. For some people, mining BitTensor is like the most fun game they've ever played, ever.

except nvidia which is the most unbelievably accretive well-run company highest margins you know making 200 billion dollars and they're treating it like they're treating service now and snowflake i just think it's so interesting what's happening this data sort of shows this reset that

tesla is incredibly asymmetric to the upside i'm willing to pay 200 times

if you look on the right hand side and the mag seven what's so interesting is apple microsoft meta and alphabet the market is completely flipped the other way and what they're saying is we believe that these cash flows are essentially monopolistically durable forever

apple microsoft meta and alphabet the market is completely flipped the other way and what they're saying is we believe that these cash flows are essentially monopolistically durable forever

facebook is incredibly durable i'm willing to pay 30 times

if you look on the right hand side and the mag seven what's so interesting is apple microsoft and alphabet the market has completely flipped the other way and what they're saying is we believe that these cash flows are essentially monopolistically durable forever

if you look on the right hand side and the mag seven what's so interesting is apple microsoft meta and alphabet the market is completely flipped the other way and what they're saying is we believe that these cash flows are essentially monopolistically durable forever that's the only reason why you would walk them up like this

if you look on the right hand side and the mag seven what's so interesting is apple microsoft meta and alphabet the market is completely flipped the other way and what they're saying is we believe that these cash flows are essentially monopolistically durable forever

even if open ai just won the consumer business it is a multi-trillion dollar company with enormous scale and value and i think that that's okay so i think that what they probably need to do is say where are we the strongest where is there the most obvious traction can traction in another market like an enterprise bleed into consumer usage if it's true then you have to win the enterprise i think winning the enterprise though is a very different game than winning consumer very different set of fea

both are incredible businesses

open ai is still the overwhelming revenue generator in this space

anthropic now i actually think that that's quite healthy

open ai is still the overwhelming revenue generator in this space and that over time anthropic is catching up

in terms of the quality of that technical team and what they create it's head and shoulders above anything else

from an enterprise lens which is where i see most of the action particularly through 80 90 it's all anthropic all the time

stripe just raised eight hundred million dollars in a Series C at an eight point three billion dollar valuation. Very bullish, generational company.

I'm bullish. I'd predict they triple revenue in the next eighteen months and become a generational company.

Exactly, and enterprises are standardizing on them. That's the endorsement that matters.

I'm bullish. If they keep this pricing advantage they could be a generational company. I'd predict they triple revenue in the next eighteen months.

I'm very bullish, this is a generational company.

i think what you do is you go to places like all of the merchants that use stripe and say we'll give you a three or four or five percent discount and they'll be like okay and so you'll see these prices that just you know fall everywhere ... it is so good for consumers if this were to happen

paypal already owns braintree so now you have stripe and braintree that effectively were competitors that won't be and then what block gives you is an entire point-of-sale infrastructure ... and you get the cash out so you put it all together and i think it's a it's a shot across the bow for visa and mastercard

And then I remember what I had learned from my friends at Google, and it was the same thing inside of Google. And then I remember what Elon had taught me about Tesla, same thing at Tesla. You had all these examples where at the extreme end of success, all the best companies almost had an allergic reaction to that traditional software stack. They refused to use it.

today there was a guy that tweeted, you know, that this is a third party. Uh, and he said, we've, you know, use software factory now to unbundle $5 billion of ISV licenses, $5 billion. And I saw that and I was like, man, this product works.

we sit it on top of a knowledge graph. And what that is, is this is very similar to sort of the architecture that I had in mind at Facebook and the architecture when we led the Series A in Slack. You know, I wrote this memo for Stuart, which was called Intercompany Edge Effects. ... I wrote the PRD for this network effects and how to build it and how to architect it.

The reason we call it a control plane is, like, it's a plane that sits, you know, above all the fray, all the chaos. You know, models will come, models will go. We work with all of them. We allow ourselves to be able to take advantage of the best-in-class model for the best task at that time. But it mostly is a product that's about multi-user, collaboration, control, governance.

when you go to the big guys and you talk about what they're dealing with, they're not here to fuck around with some stupid vibe coding tool. Like, this is the level of governance and auditability that they need. Why? Because if you think about the kinds of products that many of our customers make, they're in highly regulated markets.

we built the factory so that it can work in forward or reverse. So, for example, an engineer gets a pager duty, wakes up at 3 a.m. in the morning. They all of a sudden have to, like, you know, fix a bug or patch something. And they put production code in. We detect that. And now we auto-propagate the work order. We auto-make the change in the engineering plan. And then we make the change in the PRD. So, now everything is linked together.

I'll give you an example of one of our customers, regulated healthcare company. And with the BBB, a lot changed. They just feed that in to refinery. We understand the diff between that PRD and what needs to happen to respect the law. And once that's approved, it gets auto-propagated into the engineering plan, auto-propagated into a set of work orders. Humans review and approve them. And then put into the code because an agent goes and writes it. And now the system is completely in sync.

we support all of them via MCP. So you can use cognition. You could use codex. You can use clod. Cursor, whatever. You can use cursor. You can use whatever you want. And by the way, the reason we support those is our view is all of those vertical tools are going to converge. That's not where the skill is.

Why not have a system where intent comes in the front? You can shape it, humans, AI, agents. And then when you lock that down, Jason, the next most important step is to extract from it a very detailed, what we call an engineering plan or a blueprint, right? Like when you sketch out a house, the next step is you give it to the architect and say, give me the buildable blueprints, which give you all of the little technical details so that the house can stand on its own. The foundation is strong, th

The point is that at the senior level, you're managing risk and you're allocating capital towards ideas. You want to give a shape to that. And then you want to be able to put that in the front part of the factory and have your colleagues and your teammates and the people that work for you extract from it a pretty detailed PRD, right? A product requirements doc. And what's great is it's not just the humans that collaborate on that. Now you can have agents working behind the scenes to make that PR

in the first instantiation of 80-90, I said we have two goals. Goal number one is let's help companies get the margin benefits and the upside of the kinds of custom software that companies like Facebook and Tesla and Google benefit from, number one. And number two, along the way, how do you create a mechanism of learning the kind of data that can be collected by that process, by the unbundling of that process, so that incremental runs of software become safer and faster and simpler to build.

I wrote a product spec for something that I called co-founder. And the idea is, why can't everybody in the world have an incredibly capable co-founder? ... And that's sort of where 80-90 came from.

Any tech company would pay him a king's ransom to come work for them. He gets to choose. He choose to Anthropic. So keep that in mind.

Because that's the exciting part about this for me, Skylar, is so many entrepreneurs now, because you can get to space for 10 times less, are now going.

Trusting human memory, not a good idea. Trusting human judgment, great idea. And this is augmenting human intelligence.

They looked at it and were able to, in their using of mythos, they were able to find a lot of internal attack vectors and close them, he said. Right. And I said, is it the real deal? And he said, absolutely. This was a level that was of performance to find bugs that we had not seen before. So they did exactly the right thing. They don't need to call for a global thing.

but I do think for people who are readers, they're going to love this just like plod, you know, and these note takers, they have unlocked, you know, a very specific use case for a very specific group of people. If you're a leader, if you're a writer, if you're a researcher, you need these kinds of tools.

I wear my plod on my wrist some days because I don't like the way it hangs on my t-shirt. I prefer it on my wrist. When I'm wearing a suit, I prefer it on my suit. Okay. Well, different strokes for different folks. This thing has been incredible for me, hiking and rocking. Yesterday, I did massive rocking. I dropped my daughter off at a game show kid's birthday party. They didn't want the parents in there. So I got two hours to walk around the Dominion, which is like this incredible super mall i

they've, I think got more users using AI than open AI, um, because of putting it at the top of search.

There's no reasonable way that Elon's going to pay $60 billion and not run on top of Grog. I got to think.

But what's so smart is that where is SpaceX today? Let's call it a trillion. Where could it be? Just for the purpose of this argument, let's say 2 trillion. So when the deal gets done on a stock-for-stock basis, it's going to be, again, if it's $60 billion in tomorrow dollars, effectively Elon's gotten a 50% discount. And what has he bought? He can issue $60 billion of stock at a $2 trillion valuation and get a model and a service that I think is extremely compelling in coding, which is where we

if we allocate our resources and just double down and crush consumer that's probably three or four trillion of enterprise value and then if we slowly refocus the company with the rest of the resources and double down on codex and do something meaningful in enterprise we can probably capture two or three trillion there and now all of a sudden you can paint a picture for a seven eight nine trillion dollar market cap

if we allocate our resources and just double down and crush consumer that's probably three or four trillion of enterprise value and then if we slowly refocus the company with the rest of the resources and double down on codex and do something meaningful in enterprise we can probably capture two or three trillion there and now all of a sudden you can paint a picture for a seven eight nine trillion dollar market cap in the fullness of time

They probably have 50% to 60% market share, because I think Codex is actually quite broadly used as well.

the revenue ramp was a big question. Now that's turned into an explanation point.

Anthropic is shooting the lights out right now. This is like Steph Curry going bananas. From everywhere on the court, these guys are hunking threes. Clay Thompson. It's all net. Okay. So huge kudos to Anthropic.

the most important positive thing that will happen from the ipo is a validated external mark to market valuation of spacex and the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market assessment of the value of tesla and this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses and i think that that's what elon really needs it'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective it'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non-issue

i think it's going to be a massive amount of recirculation i think it's going to save you know these ipos if stripe goes out discord goes out spacex and then these two wild cards i you know open ai and um anthropic uh this is going to reinvigorate venture capital which under biden's four years of the wrath of lena khan was considered the worst asset class now we're going to go back to it being the best asset class and everybody's going to want to slice after the last five years

It's meaningful and, you know, VCs, this is no dig to Alford, but, you know, there is a window in which you have to accomplish tasks and that gets superimposed upon every founder's company. And that window is typically 10 years, the life of a fund. And the fund can extend to 12 or 14, but at a certain point, they have LPs they're servicing, they're trying to service the founders as well, and you're on a 20-year timeline for what you're doing. Yeah. And it's, you know, Steve Jervison, when he did

You picked an ideal customer who was willing to take the risk because the payoff was so high. And that's really one of the great arts of entrepreneurship. You have to find a customer who needs your product and it's life and death. Now, when you're talking about a SaaS product or a marketplace, it's hyperbolic to say life or death. Yeah. But the stronger the need, the more they would be willing to bend the rules or take a chance. And you found the ultimate one, which was literal life or death. An

I mean, I think that was probably the biggest takeaway that I had. You're seeing this fundamental disaggregation where we've gone from a GPU and now you have this complexion of all these different options that will eventually exist.

we're going to see something from Jensen in a week or two that uses a bunch of the stuff that we partnered with him at Grok on.

If you take, you use the Databricks and Snowflake example. If you look at the companies that use that software, those companies generate enormous revenues and enormous margins, and these products are in critical production workflows that underlie those revenues and profits. That is just not true with AI today.

If you look at the companies that use that software, those companies generate enormous revenues and enormous margins, and these products are in critical production workflows that underlie those revenues and profits.

for that, where it can be extremely faulty, and there's no SLA that you're giving, it's a phenomenal, these are phenomenal products. Yes, for 20 bucks a month, well worth it, and consumers have decided it's worth it.

As much as people want to talk about Iran, Iran, Iran, I think, as I explained last week, I think this is about China, China, China. And you have to remember, at the end of this month, he has a pivotal three days with Xi Jinping in China. This is going to be an absolutely historic convening of the two superpowers that run the world. One, which is us, we are the established, and one, which is China, who wants to be re-ascended. And I would bet dollars to donuts that there is going to be an enormo

every major advancement we've seen in ai really comes down to better and more refined data from autonomous vehicles to human-eyed robots to llm chat bots that we use every day day in and day out and when models are trained on high quality diverse real world data sets well they get smarter and they get smarter faster and it's more reliable that's why uber has introduced ai solutions to help your company build great ai products on top of world-class data now obviously uber has mastered the art of

The first is an incredibly dear friend of mine, the axe of axes. Dan Loeb, who founded Third Point, who is an unbelievable investor in literally every domain. Private credit, public equities, private tech. He's a beast. It's a good get. He's a beast.

man their inference is blazing fast again back to what we talked about last week because when you have the compute and the memory in the same place physical distances are now minimized and the complexity is minimized so you just have incredible speed

Your AI is only as good as the data it's learning from. Every huge leap we're seeing in AI development is based on refining better data sets. And guess who came up with the ideal solution for your company? That's right, my pals at Uber. Did you all know I was an early investor in Uber? Maybe you heard third or fourth. And now Uber AI Solutions works with enterprises all over the world, helping them source, label, evaluate and scale real world high quality data for every industry. When you think

I think the only way for Waymo to compete with Tesla right now is to partner with Uber.

Well, I don't think they've run away with the whole thing. So I think if they wind up being, let's just say they wind up being 10 points, they'll be 10 times bigger. So let's say Tesla wins and is 50% of the market and Waymo and Uber and Noro, they all get 10, 20%, 5%, who knows what percent of the market, Zooks, et cetera.

Well, I don't think they've run away with the whole thing. So I think if they wind up being, let's just say they wind up being 10 points, they'll be 10 times bigger.

when Facebook bought Instagram for a billion dollars, that turned out to be a huge bet about the future. It was right.

an enormous sign of confidence about how there isn't going to be a competitive threat for Paramount to just say, we'll take the whole thing because they're subjecting themselves to a level of scrutiny that they wouldn't if they felt there was any shred of a good argument for competitive antitrust.

it's roughly NVIDIA plus AMD plus Google plus a bunch of inference silicon. So that's sort of that market.

I have Gemini and Grok as the two anchor apps because I'm so reliant on both of them.

So yes, I may use Grok image because I love that. And it's just much better.

just look at the last three weeks of Google's stock performance. It basically doubled once we thought that Gemini was incredible. And so if you want to make Gemini even more incredible, just pour another billion users into it. And if that costs you 50 billion, it's okay, because you'll make a trillion in market cap. It's like a no brainer.

I have Gemini and Grok as the two anchor apps because I'm so reliant on both of them.

what you see now is an incredible overperformance from where they were. I've said this before, but Gemini is incredible.

distribution still matters a ton, which favors Google.

Sam needs to batten down the hatches. And I think he used this opportunity to stop a bunch of peripheral activities.

I think if Sam can use different points in time to tighten the core focus, they'll be better off.

And if you look at any market for any product that is unique and is effectively where they are the only competitor for what they offer, you will see an equivalent market dynamic like this.

By the way, I'm neither long nor short. I was long in the private markets. I was an investor in the Series B of Palantir. I'm not long anymore. I wish I was, but I'm not. So it's not like I have a vested interest in this being right. But it's just so obvious that what they do is completely unique and completely differentiated. There is no alternative in the market for it. That's why they trade at such a huge premium to sales.

So look at the one with the lowest multiple to sales, MongoDB. There's 90 versions of what MongoDB does. I'm not going to say whether MongoDB is good or bad. That's actually a good company. It's an extremely well-run business, but it's not unique. It's just extremely well-run. Snowflake is not unique, but it is well-run. Palantir is both unique and well-run. And there's no clear alternative. So there's no place to churn to. And so I think the reason why it has a premium valuation is because the

Well, I think the Palantir short is stupid. And I think that those people will lose money. The thing with all of these other companies, put your chart up there. The thing that the people that are shorting this company don't understand is that all of these other businesses that you put up there, there is a viable competitor of some kind that you can switch to. And so what I would say is the opposite of what they're saying, which is you have a low multiple to sales when the churn risk is higher.

And then by the way, Anthropix numbers, despite cursor doing some of their own thing, Anthropix numbers are off the charts.

but it's that it's something else there's no way somebody as smart as Silver Lake comes in if they think there's not a path to liquidity so the other thing they have to promise is they're like listen we will take this company public and in return you will help us build a better company than everybody that committed capital into that company

there's no way somebody as smart as Silver Lake comes in if they think there's not a path to liquidity so the other thing they have to promise is they're like listen we will take this company public and in return you will help us build a better company than everybody that committed capital into that company

eventually all three of these big companies will converge roughly effectively a third a third a third

GPU it basically is a GPU we also deleted the image signal processor this is a beautiful chip I poured so much life energy into this personally it will be a real winner why is AI 5 so important what AI 5 is is the building block of a system that I think you'll start to see not just in the cyber cabs but also in optimus so from a functional technology perspective there's been a leap and that leap is going to come into the market that was the first thing he said which I thought was really importan

The capital allocation system is both rigid, but it's incredibly flexible. What do I mean? The way that China allocates money is the following. You have Xi Jinping and his close circle of people. They dictate the priorities, right? I would think there was an article, Nick, you can find it, but Xi is personally right now helping to draft the five-year business plan of China. But what happens is, is it goes from that central group of like seven, eight, nine people to the Politburo. And when it get

if you go back to 1500 to now, over all of those years, China had the world's largest GDP 70% of those years.

I cannot tell you how bullish I am about this.

the reputation of OpenAI is to create industry-leading stuff. So if Facebook releases something, it's typically not innovative. It's typically copied from somebody else. When OpenAI releases something, you're going to assume, oh, this is the best-of-breed product.

I can tell you that really matches mine because when I try to get, you know, the boomers in my extended family, like, to get on this,

I'm a shareholder. Andy Ratcliffe has been on this program no less than five times.

really a revolutionary product.

the reputation of OpenAI is to create industry-leading stuff. So if Facebook releases something, it's typically not innovative. It's typically copied from somebody else. When OpenAI releases something, you're going to assume, oh, this is the best-of-breed product.

I can tell you that really matches mine because when I try to get, you know, the boomers in my extended family, like, to get on this,

It's probably as simple as that, but also the reputation of Zuckerberg and Facebook and Meta is, you know, to just create consumer-based stuff, and the reputation of OpenAI is to create industry-leading stuff. So if Facebook releases something, it's typically not innovative. It's typically copied from somebody else. When OpenAI releases something, you're going to assume, oh, this is the best-of-breed product. So I just assume Sora, if it's coming out of Sora, it's the best one. If it's coming ou

I can tell you that really matches mine because when I try to get, you know, the boomers in my extended family, like, to get on this,

I think they charge 25 bps.

I'm a shareholder. ... It's really a great way to build an optimized portfolio and pay the most reasonable fees you could ever do.

the reputation of Zuckerberg and Facebook and Meta is, you know, to just create consumer-based stuff, and the reputation of OpenAI is to create industry-leading stuff. So if Facebook releases something, it's typically not innovative. It's typically copied from somebody else. When OpenAI releases something, you're going to assume, oh, this is the best-of-breed product. So I just assume Sora, if it's coming out of Sora, it's the best one.

people need in the future of war being anti-terrorist etc is going to be ai and if you're building platforms that are just flat databases to kind of try and accomplish anything they'll be dwarfed just like optimists powered by ai will dwarf those

if you know we have seen nvidia uh and other stocks do that kind of movement when they are sitting there building building building a great product and the market then embraces it and the founder finds some huge innovation and i think the huge innovation with palantir

this is where i think apple should buy brave and duck duck go maybe perplexity

their thesis was if we just make a really fast lightweight operating system that works on any computer even one with very meager specs every you can use everything through a browser... that's been a relatively good success for them especially in education

I think that this approach is the much better approach, which is to say, we can do exactly what China did with a couple of tweaks. It's way better, as you said, Jason, to just put in the equity, own something on the balance sheet of the United States, not have a golden vote, have complete transparency, allow the capital markets to finance these businesses, but give them a chance to compete all around the world. And then the US taxpayer gets some of the upside. That is awesome.

pursuant to what we just discussed in this game of chicken, who's willing to build the most data centers and fill them with, uh, Nvidia gear.

Obviously we know Gemini doing very well at Alphabet.

We know Gemini doing very well at Alphabet.

And that's probably XAI or open AI, I think the biggest because Colossus was the biggest. So it's gotta be XAI is number one.

and we're starting a Disney miles program and a gamification well they have cruise ships too

the market commentary from both Lisa Sue and Jensen, I thought was really valuable.

oracle that just pretends an enormous amount of chips that are necessary and power and if you forecast

two have just absolutely thrived and one has not

Because they are marching steadfastly towards a billion Mao, then a billion Dow. It's a juggernaut.

The question for me is, if everybody was so reliant on human labeling initially, if you're an investor now, when you see these Grok 4 results, how do you make an investment decision that's not purely levered to just computation? So if you look at these results, does it mean that there's 300 to 1000 basis points of lag between just letting the computers vibe itself to the answer versus interjecting ourselves? If interjecting ourselves slows us down by 300 to 1000 basis points per successive itera

He said that he's going to have agents creating synthetic data from scratch that then drive all the training, which I just think is, it's crazy.

Well, he made this huge bet on this 100,000 GPU cluster. People thought, wow, that's a lot. Is it going to bear fruit? Then he said, no, actually, I'm scaling it up to 250,000. Then he said, it's going to scale up to a million. And what these results show is a general computational approach that doesn't require as much human labeling can actually get to the answer and better answers faster. That has huge implications.

One is how quickly starting in March of 2023. So we're talking about less than two and a half years, what this team has accomplished and how far ahead they are of everybody else as demonstrated by this.

Yeah. I just meant that, you know, other than the first versions of FSD, which I think Andre talked about, Andre Karpathy talked about, you know, they're not really so reliant anymore on human labeling per se, right? So that, that interference.

And then the last thing I'll say is, if you look back, he made this bet once before, which was Tesla FSD versus Waymo. And Tesla FSD only had cameras, it didn't have LiDAR. But the bet was, I'll just collect billions and billions of driving miles before anybody else does, and apply general compute, and it'll get to autonomy faster than the other more laborious and very expensive approach.

circle chime e toro um and uh core weave those all have really good stories either crypto with new crypto regulation or ai and the ai infrastructure boom uh or fintech which again is related to regulations

I think he would be willing to risk easily 20%, 10%, 20% would not even be a scratch, right? It's just like a bruise. It's not a big deal if you lost 10% or 20%.

The market cap of this prize, if it's $10 trillion, has the ability to double or triple your market cap, if you were to win, but 25% of it, win $2.5 trillion in market cap easily added, right?

If you go pull up the Facebook market cap and their cash hoard, just generally speaking, broad numbers, and then you put it against the prize for winning the AI race... So whoever wins, gets there first, or becomes one of the top three players, is going to take part in a $10 trillion prize, let's say.

I mean, look, I think it, it feels highly rational, right? If you think about Meta's market cap is a rough math, 1.7 trillion. If you're the CEO and you ultimately believe that maybe 50% of your market cap is at risk because of AI 850 billion, why would you not spend maybe four or 5% of that? If you think it increases the odds even slightly that you're going to win the market.

they are the closest to having that vertically integrated stack that I spoke about. I think that Tesla has the best vision models. Now with XAI, they'll have one of the best LLMs and reasoning models. And they'll be able to eventually stick that on Dojo. And then all of that will be in all of the physical AI that you will interact with in your daily life, whether it's a robot, or whether it's a car, or whether it's a robo taxi. So that's number one.

Tesla's one and Google's two.

I told you that I spent time last week at Tesla, I would not be sleeping on this business, I think that it is yet again, back into the land of being misunderstood.

when I first started 8090 a year ago, one of the key bets I made, which was a mistake, and we unwound the bet. But the first bet that I made was, can we build a transpiler, which is to say, can you take a CUDA workload and then can you redirect it away from NVIDIA to different hardware? And basically what I learned in that process are all of the attention mechanisms that are built into transformers that really differentiate how good the models are need to literally be hand-tuned for every single

I think Anthropic is incredible for CodeGen

if you had to boil down Google's economic North Star metric, right, not the value North Star, the economic North Star metric would be price per click. And I do think that Google is extremely well positioned to pivot that to price per token. And I think that they have some emergent classes of physical AI, but they have the largest pool of people where they can generate a price per token value framework through YouTube, through Gmail, through Workspace. I think through search, but probably it's a

I think Google, because you'll have the Gemini family of models, which just absolutely kick ass like VO3, which we haven't really spoke about, is going to destroy Hollywood, like in the next year, like Hollywood is done, I think. But they're landing model after model. They have the TPU, and the next generation TPU, I think is exceptional. They're baking quantum, and then they have an entire funnel of billions of people that they can direct experiences to. So Tesla one, Google two.

Tesla's one and Google's two.

I would have thought that Google would be up

Google's down 8%. But again, I would tell you, as a user, Gemini models are exceptional, like absolutely just bar nonexceptional.

Look at Google. Google's Gemini models are extremely tightly coupled to TPU. And it enables and unlocks an entire stack of secrets and capability that then get manifested in model quality.

You have to look very carefully at Microsoft's deal with OpenAI. Why? Because what you see is the compounding of secrets. There are secrets in the training layer, there are secrets in the model layer, their secrets in how these things are tightly coupled to infrastructure and compute. And what we have to remember is what OpenAI got from Microsoft was an extremely competent partner that built an enormous Azure compute infrastructure to train everything from chat GPT, all the way up to the O3 mode

You have to look very carefully at Microsoft's deal with OpenAI. Why? Because what you see is the compounding of secrets. There are secrets in the training layer, there are secrets in the model layer, their secrets in how these things are tightly coupled to infrastructure and compute. And what we have to remember is what OpenAI got from Microsoft was an extremely competent partner that built an enormous Azure compute infrastructure to train everything from chat GPT, all the way up to the O3 mode

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the first all civilian space flight using the space X crew dragon. And that was just truly like a momentous mission. It was just so beautiful to watch.

in AI mode, it looks like a nice comprehensive search instead of 10 blue links and tons of advertising.

This is not happening. This is just a Friday afternoon tweet, spicy tweet from Trump. Ignore it. It's not happening. There will not be a 25% tariff on Apple. But Tim Cook will come and make some sort of gesture.

can basically look at you and say, hey, go yourself. No, but I'm serious. That's a sign of a healthy culture, actually.

these things are going to be everywhere and robo taxes will be everywhere waymos will be everywhere and waymo just did a deal with toyota to provide their self-driving cars

currently ride sharing is one percent of rides here in the united states or slightly less and then globally it's less than one percent so i believe we get to 30 of rides 20 to 30 of rides in 10 years is my estimate but good for the uber team

they also did the volkswagen deal they're now up to like 15 partnerships with on autonomy companies the volkswagen deal is going to be the game changer i predict volkswagen is the number two car producer in the world we're going to need 10 to 20 million cars per year for a decade to put a dent into the number of rides people want to take

The U.S. is forecasted to increase its electricity production capacity from one to two terawatts by 20, 40, 15 years from now. During that same period of time, China is going to go from three to eight terawatts. And that China forecast, by the way, excludes any of the Gen 4 nuclear reactors, the new hydroelectric facilities and the new thorium, or if that ever scales, that they're considering rolling out in addition to what they've already planned to roll out. So in the next 15 years, China is a

That's why I love HubSpot for startups. It's the all-in-one customer platform. So you don't need a Frank inside of pools. No. Right now, early stage companies are going to get 75% off. And with this one system, you're going to automate marketing and actually converts track your sales pipeline without spreadsheet chaos. And you're going to manage your customers like the Amman hotel, six stars all the way. You're going to get investor ready analytics that tell your story perfectly. And man, when y

That's why I love HubSpot for startups. It's the all in one customer platform. So you don't need a Franken side of tools. No, right now, early stage companies are going to get 75% off. And with this one system, you're going to automate marketing and actually converts track your sales pipeline without spreadsheet chaos. And you're going to manage your customers like the Amman hotel, six stars all the way. You're going to get investor ready analytics that tell your story perfectly. And man, when y

mocking the greatest American car company ever created

I think they'll let it go through. And I think this will be, this is the starter's pistol for M and a, if this deal goes through now, anything under 32 billion is going to get done. That's my prediction.

based on my firsthand experience using a Tesla every day, I often put it in full self-driving without the address. And so that reflects what my personal experience, it will go into full self-driving mode.

Well, I mean, it was an electric car. They cared about the environment. And it's done more to change the fate of global warming than any other car company.

It's an American car company. It's the one successful one.

that's why i love hubspot for startups it's the all-in-one customer platform so you don't need a frankincite of fools no right now early stage companies are going to get 75 off and with this one system you're going to automate marketing that actually converts track your sales pipeline without spreadsheet chaos and you're going to manage your customers like the amman hotel six stars all the way you're going to get investor ready analytics that tell your story perfectly and man when you pull up hu

it is such a first of all amazing it's an well no it's an amazing place for silicon valley where you can like see these people just keep pushing the boundaries up and up and up

So on Thursday, what happened with Microsoft, they had a $24 billion contract with the United States Army to deliver some whiz bang thing. And they realized that they couldn't deliver it. And so what did they do, they went to Anduril. Now, why did they go to Anduril? Because Anduril has the technological supremacy to actually execute.

So both parties are benefiting at the same time.

actually, you know, become a headwind for Uber because in the markets where Waymo exists, San Francisco primarily, they said they were growing. So the number of rides is growing even with Waymo taking some amount of share in San Francisco proper.

their followers engage more with their content because this content is unique so there's a whole formula of downstream users and then there's also lock-in so did these lock people in and create a moat for instagram you know for facebook

software will become more efficient as we saw with r1 using maybe more commoditized hardware less generation of hardware better software better techniques etc

that's the model is like consumer usage which puts them on a collision course with meta it's the only company that could really impact that because the only company right now that has billions of eyeballs of da use per day and who and by the way zuck said this in his earnings release he's like there's only going to be one company that brings ai to a billion plus people and it will be us some version of that quote is in his earnings release yesterday

there was an announcement about apple and starlink working on direct to uh phones and i know that's always been in the works as a possibility like even i think those are even lower earth orbit satellites to be able to hit your phone so i think what we're going to have is a a multiple stack on phones

at every base of these lifts was a starlink i believe for free and so it was like a game changer

they were using starlink in a fighter plane apparently uh to the aviation version of it to get this like crystal clear you know hd video of it so shout out to the starlink team dude

he can catch a rocket with a pair of chopsticks.

amazon is doing drone delivery which means they can eventually do drone pickup true there are self-driving cars coming and there are self-driving trucks coming so amazon and zooks will be picking up all this rural stuff in a truck okay that has no humans in it and they'll be doing it for half the cost that ups is right now and ups is not the leading shipping company is it uh i think fedex is larger yeah and then i think amazon has their own delivery now they don't just rely on ups they have thei

as much as I respect what Steve and Alex Karp did at Palantir and Reddit, man, and then Instacart, yeah, you know, that's like an AMD where kind of like comeback stories.

The amazing counterintuitive thing about Palantir was how much time they spent with their customers. Everybody shat on that idea, and they were totally right.

If the guy is tweeting in real time, his stream of consciousness, you absolutely know everything that he wants because he just lays it all bare.

This was a multi hundred billion dollar grift that was stopped on a dime over 12 hours of tweets.

And the key company was Google in this respect. Google made more money for investors, dollar for dollar, after they went public, then maybe everybody, but maybe the series A.

I saw there was an extraordinary private fundraise, not for SpaceX, not for Stripe. Those are the other two giant private companies, but Databricks just raised $10 billion in the private markets.

there were some weird caps like you couldn't have 100 million users or something but i think is going based and he looks at this like the open compute platform he knows he's got a network effect he'll defend it

the 200 a month now they google it's 20 bucks a month so i give it an a plus on a value basis

very quick folks i believe google is the sleeping giant grok also doing a very good job uh the other

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when i saw the doj's theoretical guidance on the google antitrust matter their idea is to divest the browser and i kind of scratched my head thinking would any reasonable business person think that that was the right remedy meanwhile three weeks later google's like here's a super chip in quantum computing here's the quantum computing that breaks the world yeah and i thought how is it that these folks are so disconnected from reality that they don't understand what's actually sitting inside this

this is um a massive achieve achievement uh to be able to do that at once i think he is also maybe he's always been let the results you know speak for themselves and the results at uber since they got to profitability raised the prices and you know basically uh scaled to such enormous uh and obviously i'm long i'm still long the stock um although i'm diversified so it's not like an acute thing for me or a religious thing you know he's just letting the fact that they became a money printing machi

I just expect him and his teams to figure it out. Like they're just all so good. It's, and the thing to remember, it's not just him that's incredible, but he attracts a kind of technical and operational wonder kind people. For sure. And that's just, that's just a really special thing. So I had, I had that reaction, which was, I was really proud and happy for them. For the team. Yeah, for sure. For the team. And for him, these guys are like incredibly fearless.

I've been waiting for this too, because it's so obvious that this is not a difficult thing to do. And this is, you know, I got to give the team over at open eye credit and I got to give the people at Gemini a bit of a warning here at Google.

the tools that the big folks offer are so good that they just cannibalize and run over the entire market and so what they hear from cmos is we would love to advertise on your company your site but a your tools are substandard and b even though your inventory is cheaper you just don't give us the same scale and breadth that we get in these other big places

it is emerging that meta is working on some ar glasses that are really impressive

and you can see this is a this is fired off like two dozen different queries to as freebro correctly pointed out you know build this chain and it got incredible answers

Well, I'll tell you how it's possible. And so this is like this next crazy thing that's been happening. We've been doing a version of this to go after some other sources of software. We haven't had the balls, to be honest, to go after Salesforce or Workday, but here's how they do it. They write these agents and these agents can spawn other agents, right? So it's very classic kind of machine that builds a machine. And you start to observe the inputs and outputs of a system, right? I'm hyper-simpl

Well, I mean, Zuck, I think did an incredible thing for me, which is he let my team cook. I don't remember having skip level meetings, this, that, none of the other nonsense. But at the same time, what he did was he created air cover for us. Because let's be honest, I was an immature executive at the time. So I was still learning how to be part of a fabric of a group of people. I did not know how to do that. So I was a little bit of a lone wolf operator with my team and I operated that way. You

Satya Nadella, how did he build Microsoft? These are all just like a handful of examples of people that have just tacked on collectively, trillions of dollars of market cap, way more than all founders added together in most companies, but for one or two.

If you look at what Nikesh Arora was able to do at Palo Alto Networks, it's incredible. I mean, in eight years, he's created $80 billion of value.

I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling. I don't think that these things are as useful directional indicators as they are just really interesting businesses that allow people to bet and wager on all kinds of random things.

you can do it in a way where the sum of the parts will be greater than the value today of Google. So I think that there's a shareholder win.

whoever wants to win is either going to have to build an at scale competitor to uber and lyft and doordash or sell to doordash uber and lyft i think half of them are going to do the latter

8 sleep has released the pod for ultra besides heating and cooling, you know, all about that now it elevates automatically, which is so nice for reading.

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apple really cares about privacy when they're trying to hurt a company they don't like i.e meta and they're willing to figure out a way to work around it when they're behind that they clearly support open ai

you promised the guy x amount of money for doing y amount of things he did the y things and then you had a judge come over the top because of somebody who owned 10 shares and all i'm saying is if you don't have the intellectual intelligence to look past that and say wait a minute we just paid the guy to do this work and now we're going to renege they're gaming the system i just think that like how can anyone who is capable of doing a job sign up for a pay package how can anyone and the people th

he should get this stock he never should have had them taken away and so i just hope this thing yeah becomes a nothing burger

that I think Apple's in a very unique place to thread the needle on. This means the app economy becomes even more important. The app economy becomes even more important because this is the modality is going to be apps and it's going to be watching the app do the action. So this is extraordinary.

United app, they've watched us use the Open Table app, they've watched us use Uber, they've watched us use DoorDash, they know all the swipes and all those hooks. This is going to be one of these cases

What it's also going to do this is my second point is it's going to take Siri from being like a single task doer to more of an agent, able to do and thread

Okay, so that's my first point is that this is going to dramatically push us towards speech and away from touch.

Nah, they make their money from hardware and services. They got it locked up.

Yeah, this is really going to be powerful. And I think what we're seeing here is a massive moment for computing.

The first is, I think the DOJ and the FTC are totally way out of their ski tips on this. This is a totally nascent industry. We don't have any good examples of end user use cases, either in the enterprise or amongst consumers. We only have 18 months of spend history. It is true that we've spent probably $750 billion to $1 trillion collectively now on things with the AI label. But it is also true that that's probably generated less than $10 billion in revenue. So I don't see what they're exactly

ride sharing is number one the absolute probably by an order of magnitude and interesting the reason i say that is in order for ride sharing and ride hailing to really work the way that they envision it you will have level five autonomy supported in jurisdictions where again if you just look at part two the whole point is you can summon a car from your app and if you don't have access to a mobile phone you can go to these bus stop equivalents and just press a button and the car comes to you and

the answer is that he's actually executing exactly the plan and so if you're investing in a stock what you really want is a ceo to kind of stick to a plan that is well known so we don't have to actually guess what the plan is because he puts it out on the website look at the master plan part 2 and if you start reading down everything that he said he's going to do starting in 2016 is basically what it is

the most important thing that google can do is reinforce the value of search and the best way to do that is to scorch the earth with these models which is to make them widely available and as free as possible

the most important thing that google can do is reinforce the value of search and the best way to do that is to scorch the earth with these models which is to make them widely available and as free as possible that will cause microsoft to have to catch up and that will cause facebook to really have to look in the mirror and decide whether they're going to cap the betting that they've made on ar vr and reallocate very aggressively to ai that should be what facebook does and the reason is if facebo

And I will also would encourage the team over there to look at, if they haven't already, it seems obvious. I'm sure they have. How long has this account been around?

The other thing that Nvidia does brilliantly is what Intel did in the 80s and 90s, when they wanted to kind of choke the market for CPU competition, which is that they were able to define a metric that everybody started to pay attention to, which for them was clock speed.

so that's a smart thing when they're doing references they said always include the date

Not only are you not starting from zero, not only do you have the foundational models that are excellent and available in open source, you have probably the most prolific set of training data that has ever been created in the entire world to make these models kick ass.

Oh, I think this is so powerful. I mean, it's incredible because we're measuring this progress in like, what, week over week? It feels like that. Yeah. I think the point that you should take away is that the most of these very difficult in, in, in penetrable job types for the average person. If you said to them, Hey, become a developer, that's like a complicated journey, right? It's just going to be now like a command line interface where you just kind of describe in English what you want to do.

airbnb is growing coinbase is growing uber's growing doordash is growing you know they would just stay private longer right stay private longer

by the way developers by the way on grok just this past week in the queue the waitlist tripled now there's almost 10 000 developers that's a big deal oh that's crazy that's a great sign i think the most important north star metric for these developer platforms is basically that as goes the developers so goes the platform you can kind of count on some amount of pull through because some of those developers just statistically will land really important products they'll consume more apis they'll ju

the next leap forward was what jonathan saw which was hold on a second if you look at the chip itself that gpu substantially has not changed since 1999 in the way that it thinks about problem solving it has all this very expensive memory blah blah blah so he was like let's just throw all that out the window we'll make small little brains and we'll connect those little brains together and we'll have this very clever software that schedules it and optimizes it so basically take the chip and make i

they're going to be developers of all sizes and the people that came are literally companies of all sizes i saw some of the names of the big companies and they are the who's who of the

my thought today is that ai is more about proofs of concept and toy apps and nothing real i don't think there's anything real that's inside of an enterprise that is so meaningfully disruptive that it's going to get broadly licensed to other enterprises i'm not saying we won't get there but i'm saying we haven't yet seen that cambrian moment of monetization we've seen the cambrian moment of innovation and so that gap has still yet to be crossed and i think the reason that you can't cross it is th

there's a lot of market cap for grok to gain by just being able to produce these things at scale which could be just an enormous outcome for us

the grok with the q chips turns out to be extremely fast and extremely cheap ... developers stress testing us and finding that we are meaningfully meaningfully faster and cheaper than any nvidia solution

it has the potential to be something very disruptive

we had no customers two months ago i'll just be honest and between sunday and tuesday we've just we're overwhelmed and i think like the last count was we had 3 000 unique customers come and try to consume our resources from every important fortune 500 all the way down to developers

what they convinced pc manufacturers back in the day was look have the cpu be the brain it'll do 90 of the work but for very specific use cases like graphics and video games you don't want to do serial computation you want to do parallel computation and we are the best at that and it turned out that that was a genius insight and so the business for many years was gaming and graphics but what happened about 10 years ago was we also started to realize that the math that's required and the processi

the demand is clear it's the big guys with huge gobs of money and by the way nvidia is super smart to take it because they can now forecast demand for the next two or three quarters

So who is in a position to do that? Amazon has announced that they have an inference and training solution. For training cerebris has announced a pretty compelling solution. Google obviously has TPU, then there's a handful of startups, including one that I helped get off the ground in 2016, that I funded called grok. All of those companies are in a position to build a tokens per second service.

So my refined thoughts today are sort of what my initial guess was, when we started talking about AI a year ago, which is the picks and shovels providers can make a ton of money. And the people that own proprietary data can make a ton of money. But I think open source models will basically crush the value of models to zero economically, even though the utility will go to infinity, the economic value will go to zero.

So who is in a position to do that? Amazon has announced that they have an inference and training solution.

So I'm starting this thing and I've been working on this idea for a little bit, but, and I've been experimenting with it with some of my companies, but then I was like, you know what, we should just do this. So the concept here is we're going to build this incubator. It's called 8090. I have a team. I have a bunch of developers offshore. And we are going to basically create a hit list of software that we think is relatively straightforward and mispriced and could be built much more efficiently i

starlink will go public

Satya Nadella. CEO of Microsoft. I just think the gross tonnage of market cap dollars he added in 2023 plus figuring out how to close Activision plus retaining maximum optionality with OpenAI is just a master class in heads down management.

And then the third is Tesla really consolidated its leadership in EVs and battery technology. And FSD.

I think SpaceX has really turned a corner. Starlink is really at scale. Starship looks like it's viable.

it's this research assistant on either side of you answering the questions. And this is how documentary films are made, right? Or, uh, or a book like yours or Malcolm's where you're trying to pull together themes that, you know, only a human previously could make these connections. And when you make

if we look at that one gemini ultra 90 on this multiple choice test gemini pro 79 okay great chat gpt 87 so gemini was you know whatever it is a couple of gemini was a a student and gpt4 was a b plus student

because of China's population woes, and because of, I think, some of these technological things that are sort of on the horizon, I believe that we're sort of at the edge of an era of abundance that will create a massive peace dividend, because a lot of the justifications for war go away.

the equivalent analogy, the equivalence in that analogy today is Nvidia, because they are the dominant pick and shovel provider.

the crazy thing about all of this is if you look at the the legal strategy of the ftc it's basically that they view themselves as a hammer and every deal particularly if it's done by big tech is a nail and so you know amazon roomba lawsuit facebook some rando little company lawsuit microsoft activision lawsuit and it's that emotional reactivity that takes away faith and trust that this organization is intelligent and sober and well run and that's the shame of it because if you actually look acro

all of the old legacy software companies x of salesforce have still not got to profitability so meaning the ones that went public in like the early teens are still sucking wind losing money

one of them nvidia is actually firing on all cylinders

you know rage quitting twitter because you're not a fan of the product right now or elon isn't a successful long-term use case because all those people will eventually come back

I think Brian Armstrong is, is a really, really, really good entrepreneur. And I'm a really big fan of his.

facebook's up 90 percent

if you look at amd and nvidia they've been getting paid for years they continue to get paid they probably will continue to get paid even more

all this ticky tacky stuff which actually showed apple and facebook and amazon and google oh my god they don't know what they're doing so we're going to lawyer up

the thing to keep in mind is apple had a moment like this and when apple went x growth they did the brilliant thing which is they said we're going to borrow heavily and we're going to return cash i may have posted this in the group chat to you guys by 2025 apple will have exceeded one trillion dollars of cash distributions

if you had done this chart many years ago, Amazon would not have really even been there. And over the last five years, they represent almost 12% of the entire market. And so it means that if you forecast it forward, they could be at 15 to 20% in a few years as well.

I don't think this is going to work. The last thing I'll say about this is that if you think about what you should have done, if I were the US government, I would have actually focused on search. Because search is a monopoly for Google.

Google controls 26.5% of a market, 43.4% of that market is with a diverse group of others. Meta has 18.4% and Amazon has 11.7. This is not the type of pie chart you would see if you had a monopolist.

I think that this is a totally ill founded lawsuit. And I think it just shows more of the personal enmity and anger that some people in the US government has towards entrepreneurs and entrepreneurship than anything else.

They should go higher and steal away people from stability AI. And they should make a product that creates images on the fly when you have a subscription to getty images, which people do. And it should then pay royalties to the original source material and getty should then make sure that they're, uh, they have permission to do so.

I mean, this is the classic, your margin is my opportunity. So Google's, uh, revenue comes from search. Microsoft doesn't need to be profitable on bang. They can be profitable on office and the windows franchises and their software platforms.

Um, and now here we see it, open AI has essentially given Azure, their own Watson.

I think that in order for Elon to have complete financial flexibility and do what he needs to do. And, you know, he talked about this on our pod about the difficulties and the dangers of margin loans and all of that stuff. Yes. He's going to create breathing room for himself. Ah, this is the simplest and most obvious way for him to do it. It'll give him a ton of more dry powder.

SpaceX is clearly just crushing on all cylinders. And they're really the only game in town with respect to launch capability.

yeah you go to disneyland yeah you got marvel you got star wars you got pixar you can get your friends into disneyland you can throw a birthday party at disneyland for any of your friends you

I would like to see him get back to landing rockets on barges, getting to Mars. Let's get it. Let's get it. Get it.

This is a man who has essentially proven that he can bend the laws of physics on behalf of humanity. He's done it twice. Once in electric cars and once in rocketry.

And can he fix it? I think so. Can he pull it all out? Sure. Is it just putting himself under an enormous amount of pressure that he could have avoided? Somewhat, yes.

if you did invest at the time of that wired story in 2012 in tesla yeah you would have had a 245x so they had about a 2.9 billion dollar market cap in october of 2012 and they got a 710 billion dollar market cap today

I think more metrics being able to understand your followers more. That would be good too.

All right. And I had asked our, uh, producers there, Molly on the fly to show us Apple's revenue plotted against their operating expenses, uh, in their most recent quarter. And you see a similar story. So the great companies in the world, it seems, uh, Tesla, and, uh, you know, here, uh, and thanks to our friends at Y charts, uh, for providing us, uh, a free account. I probably should pay for it instead of giving this free ad. In fact, let's do that. Y charts for that. Yeah. What am I doing here

what you see there is, uh, essentially a hardware business that's got incredible, uh, margin power, the blue on this chart. If you're looking at it, the 6.8 billion compare is the operating expense that's selling, uh, general and administrative expenses. And then you have the total revenue. And what is happening here is they've been able to control costs while increase revenue. And as that happens, uh, you become a money printing machine.

So the great companies in the world, it seems, uh, Tesla, and, uh, you know, here, uh, and thanks to our friends at Y charts, uh, for providing us, uh, a free account.

what is happening here is they've been able to control costs while increase revenue. And as that happens, uh, you become a money printing machine.

The average premium in an M&A transaction in the public markets is about 30%. So, and I think the fair value of Twitter is around 32 to 35 bucks a share. So, you know, it's not like he is massively, massively overpaying. And so, you know, I would just sort of keep that in the realm of the possible. So like, if you take $35 as the midpoint, fair value is really 4550. So, yeah, he paid 20% more than he should have, but he didn't pay 100% more. So it's not as if you can't make that equity back as a

The best off in all of this are the Twitter shareholders. They're getting an enormous premium to what that company is worth today in the open market. And so I think this deal is going to close is probably going to close in the next few weeks.

the investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many, many years to come, because they'll have the most asymmetric upside. And that was true in 2008, nine and 10. It was true in, you know, 2002, three and four, you I mean, you're talking incredible companies, just in those two periods, think about this Atlassian, Tesla, Uber, Google, Airbnb, Uber, Instagram, WhatsApp, incredible businesses that have created tremendous value.

and then what did google do that youtube would have never been able to do to sax's point they built an engine that could automatically recognize copyright content and pull it down before it was made publicly available

they made billions and billions of dollars of investments into that business for years before it started to make money

i think youtube's probably worth what 300 400 500 billion dollars at this point

if you look at all of the stories around figma one of the most powerful things they did was basically allow people to use this for free effectively forever yeah bottom-up sass yeah and the problem with adobe is like that's a business model disruption that they could not afford in the public markets because if you condition a set of institutional investors to be expecting seven to eight billion dollars of annual free cash flow and all of a sudden you're willing to torch it to take a quarter of th

he basically the profile basically said that he was spending months and months going from office to office all around the world meeting customers sitting with customers reading trouble tickets that's what he would do you know reading help desk tickets about the product on vacation whenever you see a a ceo that is so customer obsessed typically there's good outcomes

huge kudos to the ceo and the team and the investors what an enormous win for all those folks that's awesome it keeps silicon valley kind of going right and that's just awesome to see these kind of big wins

make sure that version of x is going after a company like adobe versus a company like microsoft because it's much much much easier to build value

i think at some point it would be absolutely fantastic when dar is done doing his great work and dar has been doing a great job if at some point dar wanted to move on for uber and cloud kitchens to merge and for the king to return the return of the king and i would be there for it uh that would be an absolutely glorious moment if it became uber cloud kitchens and travis was ceo again in a couple years uh that would be absolutely fantastic as an outcome

dar has been doing a great job

now when you look at those businesses yes they did lose money but when if i say the word to you get a uh cab ride you say uber and i say get a desk share you say we work i say ride you say uber i say desk you know shared office you say we work the amount of money that was put into these brands uh has paid off massively and it will continue to pay off i believe that we work will continue to be like the gold standard in office sharing and i bet you all the money put in will be taken out at some po

so yes absolutely they could have uh they could have and not only could they have they did it was a really bummer of a time from 2008 to 2012 and people were not throwing tons of money and the tons of money came in that 2012 to 2022 period maybe 2015 is uh to 2020 is when it was kind of peaking so uh you absolutely could do it

By some estimates over 90% of startups will go out of business in year one. That's why Microsoft created the Microsoft for startups founders hub. This program provides founders at any stage with up to six figures in resources, I kid you not, you're gonna get up to $150,000 in Azure credits, based on your stage and size, you can get free access to get hubs enterprise tier. And you're gonna get technical advice from experts at Azure and the Microsoft cloud, you get one to one mentorship from their

microsoft created the microsoft for startups founders hub this program provides founders at any stage with up to six figures in resources i kid you not you're gonna get up to 150 000 in azure credits based on your stage and size you can get free access to github's enterprise tier and you're gonna get technical advice from experts at azure and the microsoft cloud you get one-to-one mentorship from their mentor network and exclusive benefits and discounts from companies like open ai and the best p

What same day delivery or next day delivery has done this. The whole concept of two day delivery is like two days. I'm outraged when I'm in Tahoe and it takes two days or three days. I'm like, what I need a new pair of socks. And you're saying I have to wait two days.

this is why I always felt like, you know, Google, Amazon, and Apple, were the eventual buyers of Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash, and Postmates. At some point, one of those companies would say, you know what, they get a little frisky, like, Amazon's the obvious one. But Google and Apple are the non obvious ones, but pretty sticky. You know, these delivery apps are pretty darn sticky.

PayPal obviously had that as well.

I think Sundar has now got that moment where I think he should just ignore the markets and ignore the stock price, and maybe lose 10 billion a year, instead of 4 billion on the cloud computing.

that actually is direction correct i mean uber uh airbnb and others collected investors and it was very clear if you invested in uber you weren't going to invest in lyft and vice versa if you had invested in lyft you were never going to be on team uber

well you it there's an option it has enough traction that spammers are drawn to it so i put it on

I guarantee you if Elon controlled Twitter, it would be 100 times more sustainable, delightful, less toxic for people who are currently being brigaded.

They literally in a weekend could solve the bot problem. They could solve the brigading problem.

A fantastic change because as you just astutely pointed out Molly, the algorithm is not designed with, um, society, freedom of speech, uh, or anything in that realm benefit of society.

And that's why Microsoft created the Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub. This hub provides founders at any stage with up to six figures in resources. Wait until you hear about this ridiculous list of perks. You're going to get up to 150,000 in Azure credits based on your stage and size. You're going to get technology benefits like free access to GitHub's enterprise tier technical advice from experts at Azure and Microsoft Cloud super helpful one to one mentorship from their mentor network, plus

businesses you know they do arguably better in chaos and google certainly is that like whatever

when you think in the public tech markets what is a reliable must own company well i would put snowflake in the list of these must own um high growth software businesses

I think this is a good wake up call for Apple. ... So if you want to beat Spotify, I am dead serious, podcasting, camera, podcasting, microphone, lighting kit, and then all podcasting hosting and, uh, storage of the files free.

And I do think that those two places, Netflix and HBO max are going to be like the new stuff. And then Disney will be the mining for gold.

there's no doubt in my mind that they could get this average revenue per user up at least 50%, probably double.

Disney Plus customers are getting a heck of a deal.

Disney Plus, which is an extraordinary product that if you have kids, you basically are going to have this until they are no longer kids, at a very minimum.

I believe Netflix and Disney, all destined to have a half a billion paid subscribers globally at some point.

I think they're getting more audacious and I think it has to do with globalization as well.

Amazon last night basically said, Yeah, there's some, you know, toughness in the system, but we think it's sort of like, you know, reasonably achievable. And they're past it. And so it seems like the bigger companies who have influence were able to manage through it

Apple and Tesla basically said, it's kind of reasonably well managed, particularly on the chip side, and we see the whole thing easing q4 q1 of next year

Stripe has the inside line, they come speak at YC, they offer them probably special deals. And YC partners encourage them because they own 6% of the companies where the 100 billion, it's a $6 billion position for Y Combinator. It's probably one of their biggest, if not the biggest most meaningful position along with Airbnb. Therefore, everything in that world is going to lean towards it.

They want to own more shares of Stripe. They got to buy a tiny taste in the series B. Now they want to put more in the C and D with their late stage fund. They don't want to piss off the brothers. Therefore, they don't do that.

Yeah, and for me, it seems very likely if you look at the success of FaceTime and iMessage, you know, they may not be comfortable with running a social network at scale and all the chaos that that would bring to the Apple ecosystem. But small groups of people, it could be quite delightful. I think about, you know, my iMessage groups, I think about my FaceTime groups, right? And then you think about photo groups, they're all kind of melding into private social networks. Imagine you're in your iMe

I still think this Microsoft Activision deal on balance gets done, because if you take the absolute values away from it, the reality is that it's an adjacent part of Microsoft's core business.

Or the counterfactual is maybe you YouTube would have gone out of business because of the lawsuits and the bandwidth bills. From the inside, my friend rule off was the person who did that deal. And so, you know, just based on the best deal memo ever, best deal memo ever. Yeah, pretty good one. If you look at, you know, the YouTube deal, you know, they were in such a huge lawsuit at the time, the money, the smart money predicted it was going under, because of the bandwidth bills, which were signi

If you look at, you know, the YouTube deal, you know, they were in such a huge lawsuit at the time, the money, the smart money predicted it was going under, because of the bandwidth bills, which were significant.

Apple could just buy Disney at any point in time if they were allowed to.

Apple could just buy Disney at any point in time if they were allowed to.

I mean, the thing is with the amount of cash they have, they could buy another company. There's always been this idea that Apple and Disney would merge. Mm hmm. If we didn't have, you know, the issues around antitrust, an Apple Disney merger at this point in time would be extraordinary.

and let's say they go to $10, they will have price of power. They'll probably go up a little bit. Then they'll be making 3 billion a month, 36 billion a year.