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0/2 resolved calls right
3 scored · avg 12
◆ 10 sources
22
companies · 140 data points
the look through equity value that you own in a company that could be worth a trillion unto itself
i asked jensen on this pod if there was any chance over the course of the next five years we would have a compute glut and he said it's virtually non-existent chance in the next two to three years
This is going to be in a ton of business for companies like NVIDIA, companies like AMD, folks who are suppliers to those companies. I think it's important for companies like OpenAI that want to build out capability there, you know, a major development.
the fuse was lit by Anthropics monthly revenue
I think of that 25 gigawatts, half of it will be for Anthropik and OpenAI.
I think going to run the table on mobile.
we haven't even talked about starlink and what he's going to do uh you know i think going to run the table on mobile
this is a good transition to the conversation around austerity and meta we know that the top lines for all these companies for all the reasons you mentioned going to get a lot tougher right top line growth going to be hard consumers are going to be more precious and more thoughtful with their spending advertising has hit a major bump in the road companies are cutting advertising companies are cutting corporate spending and consumers are cutting spending all at the same time top line will slow
So data is the oxygen, or the fuel that runs AI, then we're only 10% or 15% of the way into capturing all of this data, removing friction from this data.
SpaceX's cloud computing business (EWS) will generate an incremental $45 billion in revenue in 2026, on top of existing analyst estimates in the mid-20s.
What happened: The prediction concerns SpaceX's revenue in 2026, which has not yet occurred, so the outcome cannot be determined.
Verify at source ↗Uber's free cash flow will reach almost $10 billion within a few years of 2024.
What happened: Uber's free cash flow has remained in the low single‑digit billions and has not approached the $10 billion target in the years following 2024; projections for 2025–2027 remain far below that level.
Verify at source ↗Uber will reach $4 to $5 billion in profitability in 2024.
What happened: Uber remained unprofitable in 2024, reporting net losses in each quarter and no evidence of achieving $4–$5 billion in profit.
Verify at source ↗NVIDIA revenue up 2x
NVIDIA, trading at 14 times next year's fully taxed gap earnings. This is no bubble like it was in 2000.
I think of that 25 gigawatts, half of it will be for Anthropik and OpenAI.
Codex users have grown 40X in the last eight months.
the conversation I had with Sam last October, they're aggressively expanding compute. Why? All the things you heard yesterday were heading into recursive cycles. They're seeing, you know, incredible demand for the product. And so they're building out compute.
I think of that 25 gigawatts, half of it will be for Anthropik and OpenAI.
If they do that, they're doing it with a gigawatt and a half of compute. So if they add another 4 or 5 gigawatts of compute, that's certainly enough to add another $100 billion in revenue.
Anthropik's revenue reportedly this year, $100 billion, $110 billion.
the single most important data point in the market today, right? Is Anthropics' monthly revenue
Is Anthropics going to continue to be able to generate those revenues?
Anthropics came out and said, oh, our annual run rate revenue is 65. People thought it was 75. So they had to revise down their estimates a little bit.
the fuse was lit by Anthropics monthly revenue
Anthropics revenue was $2 billion. And then in February, it's $4 billion. And in March, it was $11 billion.
OpenAI and Anthropics valuation up 2x
I think the SpaceX IPO was extraordinary. I think the consolidation here is perfectly predictable. And now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three-year or a four-year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation
the traction they get on, um, you know, continuing to replace traditional mobile carriers with Starlink.
I think going to run the table on mobile.
Elon refuses just to take the safe bet. He's taking all the dollars from this thing where he has an extraordinary business and plowing them back into these things that are critically important to the United States.
You know how many CEOs or founders would just take that Starlink business, which is such an exceptional business, m- trillion-dollar business going to 2 trillion, and they would not take any of these other risks. They would not do terrafab, they would not try to build out the data center, they would not try to build their own model. That's highly risky, but highly important investments that are being made. I mean, it is heroic and important that we have this level of I just think unbridled enthu
Meta's talking about getting into the infrastructure as a service game.
SpaceX also reported this week. They also have channel conflict. They're renting out their compute to Anthropic at the same time they're trying to build their own model with Grok and Cursor.
And then at Anthropic and OpenAI, you don't have any of that channel conflict. They say, 'We're not in the infrastructure business. We're only in the model business.' So, I think it's a, you know, a clarifying view as we look forward that we may in fact not have those companies on the frontier of model development if all these people leave.
Anthropic is growing 10x year over year
the vast majority of the off-take commitments are coming from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Nvidia
I think Anthropic would buy a lot more of that today if they could.
let me give you another one, you know, like we've talked about the Anthropic IPO, or a lot of people have talked about it later this year. I hear a lot of people saying 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars. David just talked earlier that it's going to be run rating over 100 billion maybe by the end of the year. That's like 10 to 15 times revenue. That is not that much for a company that just grew 10 X and is rumored to be profitable in Q2.
at Anthropic and OpenAI, you don't have any of that channel conflict. They say, 'We're not in the infrastructure business. We're only in the model business.'
SpaceX also reported this week. They also have channel conflict. They're renting out their compute to Anthropic at the same time they're trying to build their own model with Grok and Cursor.
Google Cloud wants all of the compute in order to rent it out to Anthropic
they're sitting there dealing with this channel conflict at Google because, you know, Google Cloud wants all of the compute in order to rent it out to Anthropic, and those those building the frontier models internally want that compute in order to compete with Anthropic. So, you have this inherent channel conflict between those wanting to build the models. ... It looks like it's being resolved in favor of being more of an infrastructure company.
now you have a company at 1.4 trillion that I think if you take a three-year or a four-year view, you can see yourself tripling your money in this business at a very reasonable valuation on the Morgan Stanley numbers or on the Elon numbers or whatever
Satya is out this week saying, you know, citing Morgan Stanley's report and saying they're seeing over a 30% return on invested capital in tokens as a service, right? So in the infrastructure business.
they have that channel conflict at Microsoft, although I don't even really see them pushing the frontier anymore in terms of models.
we haven't even talked about starlink and what he's going to do uh you know i think going to run the table on mobile
i mean listen the same thing's going on at microsoft right satya is out this week saying you know citing morgan stanley's report and saying they're seeing over a 30 return on invested capital in tokens as a service right so in the infrastructure business so i think david's exactly right those are such good businesses
i think it's very high
And by the way, doing it at the same time, the OpenAI, who is also on the wave, they'll be releasing an incredible model in the next imminently. They're going to be on that wave, and you're going to see an inflection in their revenues as well.
We have low penetration of the global 2000. We have low penetration of the use cases. We have low penetration within the use cases that they're already using, and the models are only getting better.
these guys are massively compute constrained. They're each going to be adding three gigawatts of compute this year. And so that will unlock, they would be growing even faster, but for that.
I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 to $100 billion in revenue.
It's not that there was some great go to market in Anthropic that all of a sudden, you know, they snuck up and blew everybody away. No, it was companies demanding the product. They're getting throttled on the product. Why? Because it's so good.
So the company's plans were to end the year at about a $30 billion exit run rate. They got there by the end of March, right? And I suspect that it's continuing in April.
they added 4 billion of revenue in January, 7 billion in February, 11 billion of annualized run rates or 10 or 11 billion in March.
I actually think they deserve a ton of credit here and let me walk you through why. The company could have just released Mythos, broken a lot of core things on the internet.
Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum. You know, and OpenAI is seeing a lot of momentum themselves, right? But the single most important question this year, right, was would AI revenue show up? And just 60 days ago, 90 days ago, there was tremendous skepticism. No way all of these infrastructure investments were going to pay off. There's no incremental revenue coming out of AI, including many of our friends. But in February, we had, in January and February, we really had kind
And so early in the year, we were worried about tariffs. Altimeter was positioned small, right? By May, we thought they would land the plane with the best in consensus, you know, on trade, we'd get the big, beautiful bill passed. And we went to kind of extra large positioning and we've been there most of the year. And so now we're back to kind of Chemaat just nailed it. You know, we're back to kind of medium, medium, small positioning in the market. So when you look at the multiples of the marke
Well, I would just say they correlate with what the information is reported as leaked data from both companies. And that makes them both the fastest growing companies in the history of Silicon Valley. Let's just be clear about that.
I estimate about half of that spending is going to be born by the partners.
I think they will just extend, recut the deals in order to make those expenses doable for the company.
the information is reporting that their internal numbers are both over a hundred billion dollars
I would like to buy more shares in the company
microsooft had missed out on search had missed out on mobile you become ceo almost had missed out on the cloud right you you've described it caught the last train out of town to capture the cloud and i think you were pretty determined to have eyes and ears down here so you didn't miss the next big thing
we heard from both microsoft and google yesterday both said their cloud businesses would have been growing faster if they have more gpus
OpenAI can distribute its models, its leading models on Azure, but I don't think you can distribute them on any other leading of the big clouds for seven years until 2032.
So that would mean if you had $20 billion in revenue that you're paying $3 billion to Microsoft
Microsoft is one of the largest distribution platforms in the world
Microsoft started investing in 2019, has invested in the ballpark of $13, $14 billion into OpenAI. And for that, you get 27% of the business ownership in the business on a fully diluted basis.
you consolidated four billion of losses in the quarter
the look through equity value that you own in a company that could be worth a trillion unto itself
if you guys were you know are are doing in excess of 100 billion dollars of revenue in 28 or 29 that you at least would be in what about 27 yeah 27 even better you are in position to do an ipo and the rumored trillion dollars again just to contextualize for listeners if you guys went public at 10 times 100 billion in revenue right which would be i think a lower multiple than facebook went public at a lower multiple than a lot of other uh big consumer companies went public at that would put you a
kudos to you both, it's incredible, this contribution to the future of AI.
It's pretty insane. The nonprofit is already capitalized with $130 billion ... It could end up being much, much larger.
especially how this exclusivity has brought a lot of customers who may have been on aws to azure
we heard from both microsoft and google yesterday both said their cloud businesses would have been growing faster if they have more gpus
$300 million to AMD and Oracle
i asked jensen on this pod if there was any chance over the course of the next five years we would have a compute glut and he said it's virtually non-existent chance in the next two to three years
Maybe Meta should go buy, you know, should go buy Lightning and bring David back in house because, you know, all the things they talked about, all the things they talked about are now what's happening, Bill.
another announcement this morning between OpenAI and Broadcom, where OpenAI is going to be building their own inference accelerator, amounting to well over a trillion dollars of incremental CapEx. That's above and beyond what we already knew was going to get built out.
so first this is a bet the farm bet by lisa sue right she's giving away 10 of the
maybe in the middle you have, you know, tech pragmatists, I guess I might call them, you know, like Jensen Huang or Tim Cook. I'd probably put myself in this camp who thinks we, we have to compete. We have to re-onshore industry. You probably should have some tariffs in order to achieve that, but you definitely can't decouple or ignore or, or antagonize.
Google's dominance, it's been the greatest business business in the history of capitalism for 20 years because they owned the consumer and they owned the verb in something that was extraordinarily high margin. And all I would say is the first real threat in 20 years came about because in the chat GBT moment, it's continued to accelerate.
ultimately what I've said all along about Google is there that many ways, the best position company in the world, but a lot of their advantage, right. Is no longer much of an advantage, right. And namely that, you know, they were the dominant place where the consumer started every single query. And we know today that's just not true.
it's been a welcome, I think, development on our end to see, you know, open AI increasingly vocal about the need to make sure that, you know, we stay open and we stay.
Every one of these companies, literally from Uber, they're growing their top line without growing their headcount all the way to the largest of the Mag 7.
OpenAI reached, you know, $400 billion annual searches, eight years faster than Google, right? So they're doing over a billion searches a day now, right?
When you look at Cursor, they're building their own models, right?
split-adjusted from the high in 2000, which was this 150, that's equivalent to about 47 cents split-adjusted today. So it's up about 440x from where it was in 2000. And on a split-adjusted basis from the low in 2000, it's up about 1,800x
Amazon, if you recall, Bill, and I know you do, it peaked at 243 bucks a share in 1998. But at the start of 2000, it's at 150 bucks a share. Okay. And Henry Blodgett famously makes the call. He calls $400 a share. And he literally kind of top ticks it from the year 2000. And the thing plummets and goes down to about 26 bucks a share, right? And he gets ridiculed and all this stuff.
I think it was a good day for American businesses. This is going to be in a ton of business for companies like NVIDIA, companies like AMD, folks who are suppliers to those companies.
This is going to be in a ton of business for companies like NVIDIA, companies like AMD, folks who are suppliers to those companies. I think it's important for companies like OpenAI that want to build out capability there, you know, a major development.
I think that's an example of OpenAI very actively attempting to build network effects in terms of the quality of the model, the quality of the answers going back to the end.
And there, I think, you know, the odds on favorite there has to be OpenAI. I think they continue to widen their gap, by the way, Bill.
when you compare it, for example, to how Meta has used Meta AI, like, is incredible as I think Zuckerberg and Meta are and the advancements they've made. I have not particularly been impressed by the productization of Meta AI, right? It's basically just a search box stuck at the top of Instagram or stuck in my WhatsApp thread. And when I'm on it, I never intend to be there.
So, not an insignificant amount of the demand out of NVIDIA
that the inputs are going to be coming from you guys and NVIDIA largely
As I said, to build two million GPUs, I think that's a third of what NVIDIA is expected to make this year, right?
we know that there was construction and work going on in Abilene last year with Oracle. I assume that was kind of a direct relationship between the company and Oracle
the public markets as Amazon, as Google, as Salesforce, and so many others have proven. This idea that you can't innovate in the public markets is total nonsense.
the distribution of potential for them is less than it was before chat gpt you know the the distribution of upside they have some competitors now who are going to be vying for this next new thing and i wonder whether or not you know as they try to navigate you know you're saying they're going to take some of this traffic from search and feed it into this other thing this other thing better monetize as well as search or by definition that means revenue goes down
take something like nvidia if i'm playing at home or i'm a you know a professional investor i may say oh i'm going to go sell some long-dated calls to buy a little protection to the downside i don't think there's any problems with nvidia i think they're going to continue to perform i think they're beat their numbers for the balance of the year but you know remember at the start of the year people thought they were going to miss their numbers for data center people thought data center revenues th
it's incredible like 38 year old founder who made a decision that had the mental flexibility he never had to talk with me his team never had to talk with me he didn't have to do any of these things he didn't have to double down on efficiency and ai like it's a little embarrassing to do that right you have to say well maybe this meta thing we need to make it a little smaller maybe we do need to double down on ai maybe we do that is the sign of greatness the refusal to talk to anybody who might ha
i've been so impressed watching what meta did
nvidia was priced at 125 a share in january of this year of this year the consensus sales forecast was that data centers would be down six percent this is all the world's best sell side analysts goldman sachs morgan stanley etc thought that data center growth in the year of ai would be negative for nvidia instead it's up 80 percent right that's how wrong they can be ... but when i have entrepreneur after entrepreneur walking into my office saying the single greatest bottleneck that we have in th
it just stood to reason that an infinite scroll, right. Where I could entertain myself like television was going to work better on mobile than it did on desktop because I get up and leave my desk, but I don't leave my supercomputer.
the brilliance of Mark Zuckerberg is he's infinitely curious. He's mentally flexible. He's in the building. Larry and Sergey are not in the building. Mark is in the building. He cares deeply about the product.
the core business needed to get fit and focused that he should double down on AI and he should just quarantine invest 5 billion a year, which is still an insane amount of money on Metaverse instead of 15 or 20.
And yet staring them in the face was probably the biggest goldmine, the biggest opportunity that we've seen in our investment careers, which was AI.
At Meta that manifested itself in a 10 year project where they plan to spend more money than the U S government spent on the Apollo project that put Meta on the moon. And nobody really even understood exactly what it was, including Mark.
there was also a lot of dislocation around IDFA and a lot of things happening in the world that specifically were hurting meta.
Facebook went from 40,000 employees to 80,000 employees in two years... And everybody that we talked to said, it's slowed down. We're not releasing products. It's no fun to work there.
So it wasn't just Snowflake. It was also MongoDB and, you know, companies that were enabling the move to the cloud like Twilio and Okta.
And so Snowflake, just as a canonical example, the largest market in all of software in 2000 was databases. It was a trillion dollars of enterprise value. And it made sense because it was the primordial, it was a primal component that gave rise to all of software. And so if it was worth a trillion, if data was worth a trillion in the year 2000, what would it be worth 10 years later, when data is doubling every two to three years? So as the world was moving into the cloud, we said we want to own
So data is the oxygen, or the fuel that runs AI, then we're only 10% or 15% of the way into capturing all of this data, removing friction from this data.
And it wasn't just Snowflake. It was also MongoDB and, you know, companies that were enabling the move to the cloud like Twilio and Okta. And so we've invested, as you know, and are still investing in what we call the modern data stack.
So we're very thematic driven. We talk about super cycles. So I study the super cycle and say, if we get the super cycle right, then it's easier to find the companies, right? Because if you know, like organizing all the world's information in search is going to be a valuable toll booth, right? Then I want to go find the people who are doing that the best. Or, you know, when you saw this mobile device, or when you saw these devices for the first time, and we knew that those icons were all going t
it may all end up with microsoft and google i mean this may end up looking like ios and android at the foundation model level and so you know i think as investors for example on the foundation model side i think it's very difficult to choose just one particularly when the largest one is frankly captive and a proxy to microsoft and they're capping your upside return
one of our biggest investments is snowflake frank sleutman general sleutman frank sleutman uh you know when we brought frank on board to lead that company you know he said prepare for war right this for him is not a a one-day mission that's not a way a way to behave for a single day or a response to something it's a way of life right that the company's duty is to be fit every day right so he was making changes three four years ago right in terms of changing culture and now let me just give you o
apple has been famously efficient relative to the other big companies like like facebook or google and one of the things i would say about apple you know why do they have such fitness like what is it culturally i want to point to two things right the first is a design culture around minimalism and essentialism that is also an ethos for how they run the business got it right steve jobs says he says focus isn't choosing you know the thing that you like the most focus is saying no to a thousand thi
be perfectly honest jason i hope i hope that i can put him there i listen nobody can doubt elon's credentials as a visionary um as a ceo or as a courageous leader um i am rooting for his success we need him to be successful okay but i do listen you are you're close with him uh i think all of us worry that he's taken on a lot yeah and and and when you take on a lot you get spread thin so i want him to be successful but i wouldn't put it on the list just yet all right but i expect it will be becau
what i see happening in venture and there's a big effect here since elon took over twitter this elon effect i mean he's revered by a lot of founders everybody can say whatever they want about his a style his approach um you know he's far from perfect he's the first to admit it but the courage in making that level of change and everybody said the lights would turn off at twitter right it wouldn't work anymore you couldn't possibly do this
on the bottom of the list um listen i would put i hate to say it because i'll be candid i i love both of these companies i'm going to stick with the big companies uh to start and i would say uh you know google and facebook
i basically said hey tighten your belt on people you'll get more innovative this is the misnomer it's not about cutting it's not about killing investment it's about getting more innovative more productive okay those two things coexist so it's get more focused on that get more productive number two focus on ai in fact maybe invest more in ai and then on this third thing if i were doing this i'd do what google did which is i would say long-term bet more uncertainty i'm going to put this in somethi
they're investing way more in ai than most people understand right the the magic of bite dance tick tock was that it was not a social network right they targeted my son to watch tick tock through ai and it worked so facebook has done a complete retooling over the last three years right has been one of the largest consumers of gpus right to really build an ai discovery engine okay the world doesn't even know that because they think that mark you know renamed the company you know meta and the only
this business can do 40 billion in free cash flow instead you're going to do 15 billion in free cash flow right because you're making these massive investments
at facebook i thought they had a particularly acute challenge but a particularly interesting opportunity the acute challenge was they had gone from 25 000 to 85 000 employees in just a few years and at the same time they were making a massive and uncertain long-term bet more sizable than any bet we've seen in silicon valley on oculus and reality labs where i said you've confused investors which is hurting the company
what i see happening in public companies we talked about meta or google or amazon etc what i see happening in venture and there's a big effect here since elon took over twitter this elon effect i mean he's revered by a lot of founders everybody can say whatever they want about his a style his approach um you know etc he's far from perfect he's the first to admit it but the courage in making that level of change and everybody said the lights would turn off at twitter right it wouldn't work anymor
this is a good transition to the conversation around austerity and meta we know that the top lines for all these companies for all the reasons you mentioned going to get a lot tougher right top line growth going to be hard consumers are going to be more precious and more thoughtful with their spending advertising has hit a major bump in the road companies are cutting advertising companies are cutting corporate spending and consumers are cutting spending all at the same time top line will slow
you know if you're giving away 40 billion in rsu's the way facebook has over the course of the last six years right then then shareholders expect and should expect to earn some return
on the bottom of the list um listen i would put i hate to say it because i'll be candid i i love both of these companies i'm going to stick with the big companies uh to start and i would say uh you know google and facebook um google and facebook and you know like they um google listen ruth porat's an incredible cfo at google she made a bunch of great changes when she came on board um over the course of the last eight years they've compounded but the fact of the matter is the company is now at i
We believe in this team... We know meta has more reach more relevance and more incredible opportunities for growth than almost any platform on the planet
Meta has drifted into the land of excess too many people too many ideas too little urgency... This lack of focus and fitness is obscured when growth is easy but deadly when growth slows and technology changes
An open letter published to mark zuckerberg and the meta board urging them to tighten their belt and sharpen their investment focus The plan would 2x annual free cash flow to 40 billion dollars double down on ai But put a cap on metaverse related investments.
well i think listen what makes investing hard is sometimes you have to hold simultaneous truth right and the reality is there's a lot of cognitive dissonance when you see something down 30 40 50 percent but it may be still that fair value right we were talking about last october like make no mistake about it just take snowflake as an example the move from 400 to 200 was probably just what i would describe as normalization in a world
So the entire profit margin of Uber was competed away by stupidity. And you tweeted last week. And I noticed because Jason and I may have a little something on the line here, you know, with respect to Uber for the first time you tweeted after their quarterly earnings, maybe we're starting to see network effects show up at Uber. Because if you listen to the Lyft call, it was a train wreck.
Because if you listen to the Lyft call, it was a train wreck.
So Lyft and everybody else could do diseconomic things.
he came into snowflake when it was growing over 300 percent and he he you know he he reconstituted what what that culture was about to prepare for wartime right because he says when wartime comes right and it gets challenging i want to run the field right i don't want to be laying off employees i want to be that's the time to hire that's the time to press the advantage that's the time to invest in product that's the time to win the new customers
let's say we reduce the multiple by 50 but the company's growing top line and free cash flow by a hundred percent doesn't take you very long to grow through the multiple compression so snowflakes multiple is plummeting for two reasons one because the stock price came down number two because right their growth rate and free cash flow growth is so high
snowflake became a poster child in the public markets of a high priced uh sas business snowflake this year will grow its free cash flow at over a hundred percent a year next year probably you know 80 or 90 free cash flow not just revenue free cash flow in q4 i think they booked 1.4 billion of revenue q4 on a business that entirely in last year did 1.2 billion in revenue right
around alignment of interest, around transparency, around disclosure. We're not going to market questionable companies to retail investors. We're going to take the world's best companies, and we're going to partner them with the world's best institutional investors.
We do not we're not a SPAC hammer, only trying to pound a SPAC nail we are
And for a select few every year, we're going to help them go full stack on the Altimeter platform, but we'll participate in 40 other IPOs, where we'll be an expert advisor on their traditional bank IPO, like we did with Snowflake, where we helped anchor that, or like Roblox, where we helped cornerstone the direct list
What we're very focused on is what we've done for, I've done for 20 years, which is focused on the world's best internet and software companies, gaming and fintech, right?
I'm never going to bring a company public that I'm not willing to lock up my sponsor promote in because, frankly, I want to bring the best of the best.
We delivered a better cap table at a fairer price with a hell of a lot less distraction than they would have gotten in a typical experience. So we're, I think, a great partner, too.
And Altimeter has 15 years of trust and relationships with these portfolio managers because we sit on the same side.
this isn't about flipping a SPAC. This is about building a product like I've built in four or three other companies like Rich has built it. You know, we took a Zillow approach. What is the I buy of the IPO? How can you deconstruct that?
What was significant about this week, wasn't the fact that we did a big SPAC, right? What was significant about this week is that a company that clearly could have gone public with any of the major investment banks in the world, chose an alternative capital markets platform to step into the public markets.
When we thought about building a capital markets platform at Altimeter, this wasn't like a one-off SPAC. This was like, can we use, um, can we use the SPAC as effectively an open source API into the public markets? Nice. And we build a service layer on top of that called a capital markets business, where we provide a full turnkey solution from the book build all the way through the IR, uh, up to the data. Investor relations. Correct.
the reality is you should allocate to things that you think are thematically highly asymmetric and great ideas and and this was one of them and one we missed