When a TLS certificate transparency signal fired on a private company, a funding round followed within 365 days 32.8% of the time — against a 4.6% base rate for the same companies on the same dates.
The ledger hit rate vs base rate · lift · median lead · n, by horizon
| Signal | within 90 days | within 180 days | within 365 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| TLS certificate transparency private companies | 18.8% vs 5.7% | 31.4% vs 8.0% | 32.8% vs 4.6% |
| SEC Form D — secondary demand private companies | 8.3% vs 4.6% | 12.0% vs 4.7% | 11.8% vs 4.3% |
| Regulatory signals, combined private companies | 17.7% vs 5.6% | 29.3% vs 7.7% | 30.1% vs 4.5% |
| Regulatory signals, combined venture stage only | 19.4% vs 6.8% | 32.2% vs 11.0% | 5.6% vs 4.1% |
| Federal Register notices all tracked | 4.8% vs 1.5% | 5.0% vs 1.9% | 6.3% vs 2.9% |
| Federal contract awards all tracked | 0.8% vs 1.2% | 1.7% vs 1.4% | 3.7% vs 2.0% |
| Federal research grants all tracked | 0.0% vs 0.2% | 0.0% vs 0.4% | 0.0% vs 1.0% |
Each cell: share of matured signals followed by a raise within the window, vs the base rate. Samples under 30 matured signals are shown but flagged — read them as direction, not proof. Individual hits, with dates, are on the track record.
VIX composite score in validation until ~2027-11
The composite blends every signal into one score. Its scores are frozen as they are issued (6,097 so far) and judged only once a raise could have happened either way — so no hit rate is published for it until those outcomes mature. The signal families above are what the composite is built from, and they are measured today.
How this is measured
bt_01m2x1rmffqjc6066tpz0t2f8z, frozen 2026-09-19, over 3,106 signals.