Every experimental signal is judged on what actually happened: did it fire before a real funding round, and by how many days? Below is the honest scoreboard and every resolved prediction — the lead is measured, not claimed.
Signal scoreboard hit rate + median lead, by source
TLS certificate transparency
~113.5-day median lead
12.2% precision · 38 hit / 274 missed among 312 old enough to judge · ≤45.8% adjudicated-only bound
SEC Form D — secondary demand
~101.5-day median lead
11.8% precision · 2 hit / 15 missed among 17 old enough to judge · ≤44.4% adjudicated-only bound
Federal Register notices
~39-day median lead
6.3% precision · 1 hit / 15 missed among 16 old enough to judge · ≤23.5% adjudicated-only bound
Federal contract awards
~170-day median lead
3.7% precision · 4 hit / 103 missed among 107 old enough to judge · ≤3.9% adjudicated-only bound
Federal research grants
0.0% precision · 0 hit / 18 missed among 18 old enough to judge · ≤0.0% adjudicated-only bound
Researcher affiliation shifts
0.0% precision · 0 hit / 10 missed among 10 old enough to judge
Every resolved prediction the signal, and the raise it preceded
| Company | Signal | Fired | Raise announced | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Openai | TLS certificate transparency | 2024-11-24T00:00:00.000Z | 2025-11-18T00:00:00.000Z | 359d early |
| Chai Discovery | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-07-31T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z | 348d early |
| Spacex | TLS certificate transparency | 2022-10-13T00:00:00.000Z | 2023-08-04T00:00:00.000Z | 295d early |
| 8090 Labs | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-09-08T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-06-29T00:00:00.000Z | 294d early |
| Codewords | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-07-17T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-05-07T00:00:00.000Z | 294d early |
| Scale Ai | TLS certificate transparency | 2024-08-13T00:00:00.000Z | 2025-06-01T00:00:00.000Z | 292d early |
| Anduril | Federal contract awards | 2022-06-22T00:00:00.000Z | 2023-03-23T00:00:00.000Z | 274d early |
| Lyzr | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-11-08T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z | 243d early |
| Anthropic | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2025-04-25T00:00:00.000Z | 2025-12-18T00:00:00.000Z | 237d early |
| Groq | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2025-11-14T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-06-22T00:00:00.000Z | 220d early |
| Vikk Ai | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-21T00:00:00.000Z | 216d early |
| Coralogix | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-11-04T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z | 209d early |
| Third Point | Federal Register notices | 2025-08-28T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-03-18T00:00:00.000Z | 202d early |
| Perplexity | TLS certificate transparency | 2024-05-15T00:00:00.000Z | 2024-12-01T00:00:00.000Z | 200d early |
| Carpl Ai | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-23T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z | 190d early |
| Etched | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-01-27T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z | 177d early |
| Valarian | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-02-08T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-14T00:00:00.000Z | 156d early |
| Openai | TLS certificate transparency | 2022-07-30T00:00:00.000Z | 2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z | 155d early |
| Anthropic | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-03-13T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z | 139d early |
| Fireworks | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-03-07T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z | 131d early |
| Together Ai | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-02-24T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z | 127d early |
| Microsoft | Federal contract awards | 2021-09-30T00:00:00.000Z | 2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z | 93d early |
| Lambda | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-02T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-02-26T00:00:00.000Z | 86d early |
| Qdrant | TLS certificate transparency | 2025-12-25T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-03-12T00:00:00.000Z | 77d early |
| Sail Research | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-04-28T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-06-25T00:00:00.000Z | 58d early |
| Whoop | Federal contract awards | 2020-09-21T00:00:00.000Z | 2020-11-12T00:00:00.000Z | 52d early |
| Forge | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-04-11T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-06-01T00:00:00.000Z | 51d early |
| Blacksmith | Federal Register notices | 2026-06-25T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z | 48d early |
| Gradium | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-05-28T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-09T00:00:00.000Z | 42d early |
| Copilotkit | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-03-24T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z | 42d early |
| Aegisai | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-13T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-23T00:00:00.000Z | 40d early |
| Respan | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-02-15T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-03-18T00:00:00.000Z | 31d early |
| Cursor | TLS certificate transparency | 2023-10-10T00:00:00.000Z | 2023-11-08T00:00:00.000Z | 29d early |
| Prime Intellect | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-08T00:00:00.000Z | 28d early |
| Higgsfield | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-08-17T00:00:00.000Z | 26d early |
| Paper | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-01T00:00:00.000Z | 26d early |
| Daytona | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-01-15T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-02-05T00:00:00.000Z | 21d early |
| Bristol | Federal Register notices | 2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z | 20d early |
| Openrouter | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-05-11T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-05-26T00:00:00.000Z | 15d early |
| Natural | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-07-08T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z | 12d early |
| Trase | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-15T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-06-24T00:00:00.000Z | 9d early |
| Baz | TLS certificate transparency | 2026-06-20T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-06-29T00:00:00.000Z | 9d early |
| Etched | SEC Form D — secondary demand | 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z | 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z | 5d early |
Lead = calendar days from when the signal fired to when the raise was announced. Directional and capped at 365 days — a signal only counts if the raise followed it within a credible window. Precision is COHORT-DISCIPLINED (2026-08-17): only watches old enough for the outcome to be knowable either way (365-day window + 90 days grace) count, hit or missed alike — young hits no longer flatter the number while old misses are still aging in. The adjudicated-only figure is shown as the optimistic upper bound; the cohort figure leans pessimistic (it counts old watches on companies whose raises we may simply not track). Misses are retained forever.