Real numbers behind the companies, so hype can't outrun the record. Every claim is frozen at the date it was made — a 2008 pitch deck's projections are 2008 claims, however late we read them — then graded only against evidence from AFTER it was said. A missed projection is measured, not moralized: the ledger records how far off and how late, because wrong is not dishonest.
We graded the famous decks the projections everyone remembers, judged against what actually happened
The same pipeline grades every deck submitted today — founders get their claims frozen and tracked on the record they can point to; investors get the numbers with the hype stripped out. Score your deck · Browse the scored index
The record confirms it stated raises verified against the funding record — the positive pathway
Each one cross-checked against the rounds record before it earned the label — the same skeptical pass the investor lens applies to every number on a company page. Saying it and then doing it is what builds a track record here.
Graded projections the DELTA ledger — projection vs what actually happened
“Airbnb projected $200 million in revenue from 2008-2011 based on 10.6 million trips at $20 average commission.”
Airbnb’s own Jan-26-2012 announcement: 5 million cumulative guest nights booked (4M in the trailing 12 months). Even granting every night as a trip, cumulative trips through the 2011-12-31 target were ≤5M vs the projected 10.6M (≥53% miss), implying ≤$100M commission revenue vs $200M projected. Realistic nights-per-trip puts the miss far deeper. The adoption curve arrived anyway — 10M cumulative nights by June 2012, five months past the target.
“Uber's best-case scenario projected becoming market leader with $1B+ in yearly revenue per year profit.”
Uber’s S-1 (Apr 2019): yearly revenue crossed $1B during 2015 ($495.3M in 2014 → $3.845B in 2016) and Uber became the largest ridesharing platform — the revenue and market-leadership components of the 2008 best case came true, roughly seven years out. The profit component did not: never a profitable year at filing, $3.0B operating loss in 2018.
“Buffer projected 1 million users and $3.6M revenue by January 2013.”
No qualifying outcome was adjudicated by the claim's horizon (target date + 180d grace). Re-adjudication stays open if evidence surfaces.
“Buffer projected reaching 100,000 users and $288,000 revenue by January 2012.”
No qualifying outcome was adjudicated by the claim's horizon (target date + 180d grace). Re-adjudication stays open if evidence surfaces.
“Buffer projected reaching 1 million users and $3.6 million revenue by January 2013.”
Buffer’s own Sep-2013 publication: $1m annual revenue reached January 2013 (projected $3.6m, −72% at the target date) and 1,000,000 users reached September 2013 (8 months after the projected January 2013). Both numbers were eventually reached — later and slower than projected.
“Buffer launched its web app in January 2011 and had 55,000 users and $150K revenue by October 2011.”
No qualifying outcome was adjudicated by the claim's horizon (target date + 180d grace). Re-adjudication stays open if evidence surfaces.
“Buffer projected 100,000 users and $288K revenue by January 2012.”
No qualifying outcome was adjudicated by the claim's horizon (target date + 180d grace). Re-adjudication stays open if evidence surfaces.
“Intercom targets SaaS providers, a market worth $21 billion at the time and projected to reach $93 billion by 2016 according to Forrester.”
No qualifying outcome was adjudicated by the claim's horizon (target date + 180d grace). Re-adjudication stays open if evidence surfaces.
“Kickstarter will not have a liquidity event (IPO or acquisition) for at least 20 years.”
Kickstarter has remained a privately held company with no IPO or acquisition up to 2026, but the 20‑year horizon (till 2032) has not yet passed, so the claim cannot yet be fully confirmed or refuted.
“WeWork's membership is growing rapidly, with top-line growth accelerating due to a robust pipeline and rising per-member revenue.”
WeWork’s S-1 (Aug 2019): revenue roughly doubled each year 2016–2018 ($436.1M → $886.0M → $1.82B) and memberships nearly doubled through mid-2019 (260K → 503K) — the growth trajectory the 2014 deck described held for five years. Losses scaled alongside; the IPO withdrawal and later collapse post-date this claim and do not retroactively falsify a 2014 growth statement.
“Front projected headcount of 39 in 2016 and 53 in 2017.”
No qualifying outcome was adjudicated by the claim's horizon (target date + 180d grace). Re-adjudication stays open if evidence surfaces.
“Front projected ARR of $3m in 2016 and $10m in 2017.”
Collin (fireside published Sep 2018): $1M→$10M ARR took two years. Anchored to the deck’s own $1.4m ARR at Apr 2016 and 5.4x trailing growth ($1m crossed ~Q4 2015/Q1 2016), the $10m crossing lands ~Q4 2017–H1 2018 — the end-2017 target was met on time or within roughly a quarter. Exact at-date ARR is not public (the company redacted deck figures), so SUPPORTED rather than VERIFIED.
“Front projects positive operating margin by end of 2019 and 'default alive' profitability in 10 months assuming no hiring and 5% monthly growth.”
No qualifying outcome was adjudicated by the claim's horizon (target date + 180d grace). Re-adjudication stays open if evidence surfaces.
“Treehouse will have 500,000 apprentices in its Talent Path program within 10 years.”
Treehouse's Talent Path program never came close to 500,000 apprentices; the program remained small and Treehouse faced financial difficulties and restructuring in subsequent years. [basis: model_knowledge, confidence: 0.85]
“Disney+ will surpass Netflix in subscriber count within 10 years.”
By the July 2022 deadline, Netflix had roughly 220 million subscribers while Disney+ had around 152 million, so Disney+ had not surpassed Netflix. [basis: model_knowledge, confidence: 0.95]
“Nikola will reach a valuation of $500 billion to $1 trillion in 10-15 years.”
Nikola's market capitalization never approached $500 billion; by the January 2023 deadline it was valued at well under $5 billion, and founder Trevor Milton had been convicted of fraud in October 2022. [basis: model_knowledge, confidence: 0.98]
“The release of Apple's mixed reality headset will result in a net 15% lift in iPhone sales.”
Apple's mixed reality headset (Vision Pro) was not released until February 2024, well after the January 2023 deadline, and there is no evidence of any net 15% lift in iPhone sales attributable to it. [basis: both, confidence: 0.90]
“It will take 10.5 years (until mid-2032) for Apple's headset/glasses to be able to fully replace the iPhone.”
As of 2026, Apple’s headset/glasses have not fully replaced the iPhone, and the predicted mid‑2032 milestone has not yet been reached.
“SpaceX will launch point-to-point Earth travel service within 5-10 years”
SpaceX has not yet launched a point‑to‑point Earth travel service as of 2026, though it continues to develop the Starship vehicle and related infrastructure.
“Uber will be worth 5 to 10 times its current valuation in 10 years.”
By the February 2024 deadline, Uber's market cap had risen from roughly $45B (Aug 2022) to approximately $140-150B, about a 3x increase — well short of the predicted 5-10x. [basis: both, confidence: 0.85]
“Airbnb will be worth 5 to 10 times its current valuation in 10 years.”
By the February 2024 deadline, Airbnb's market capitalization was roughly $85-100B, only about 1.2-1.3x its ~$75B valuation in August 2022, nowhere near the 5-10x predicted. [basis: model_knowledge, confidence: 0.90]
“Lyft will be worth 5 to 10 times its current valuation in 10 years.”
By the February 2024 deadline, Lyft's market cap had declined from roughly $13-15B (August 2022) to approximately $5B, falling far short of a 5-10x increase. [basis: both, confidence: 0.90]
“DoorDash will be worth 5 to 10 times its current valuation in 10 years.”
The 10‑year timeframe (to 2032) has not yet passed, so the prediction cannot yet be evaluated.
“Mango will reach $10 million in net revenue by 2025.”
The target 'Mango' is not in the tracked catalog and no reliable public financial data is available to confirm whether this specific company reached $10 million in net revenue by 2025. [basis: model_knowledge, confidence: 0.85]
Grading compares the actual AT the projection's target date — overshooting a 2012 target in 2013 is not a hit, and a number reached late is recorded with its lag. “Achieved eventually” appears in the delta wherever the curve arrived after the deadline.
The historical ledger claims frozen from era documents — the corpus that lets grading be tested against known history
| Said | Company | Type | Claim | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | LinkedIn achieved its large user base and market position having spent less than $4 million. | Unresolved | |
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | LinkedIn held 73% of registered users among online professional network tools as of August 2004, up from 54% six months prior, with total market at 1.2 million users. | Unresolved | |
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | LinkedIn had 930K+ white-collar registered users with 29K+ weekly user growth rate and 23M+ unique email addresses uploaded as of August 2004. | Unresolved | |
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | LinkedIn had 1M+ user searches per month, 20M+ total member page views per month, and 20% of old users logging in per month. | Unresolved | |
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | LinkedIn's premium services revenue model includes three components: targeted contextual text ads, job listings filtered through each professional's network, and subscription services extending the reach of each professional's network. | Unresolved | |
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | LinkedIn had 50+ Groups live with 20+ new Groups launching per month and 300+ Groups in the pipeline, including major professional organizations and alumni groups. | Unresolved | |
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | 22% of LinkedIn users are CxOs or senior executives, spanning 100+ countries and 130+ industries. | Unresolved | |
| 2004-08-01 | assertion | LinkedIn had a two-year exclusive agreement with DirectEmployers Association (fourth-largest job database online) and was at contract stage with American Express OPEN for exposure to 2 million small business cardholders. | Unresolved | |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube allows consumers to upload videos and takes care of serving the content to millions of viewers. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube closed a Series A round of $3.5M in November 2005. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube provides a community that connects users to videos, users to users, and videos to videos. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube listed OurMedia.org, Open Media Network, Google Video, PutFile, DailyMotion, and Vimeo as competitors. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube launched on June 11 and had already overtaken all previously existing competitors as of August 2005. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's stated purpose was to become the primary outlet of user-generated video content on the Internet. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | projection | YouTube plans to generate revenue through advertising, acting as a for-pay distribution channel for promotional videos, charging members for premium features, and charging viewers for premium content. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's purpose is to become the primary outlet of user-generated video content on the Internet and to allow anyone to upload, share, and browse this content. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's product development focuses on community, open architecture, targeting vertical markets with a need for video content, and features currently in development. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube allowed consumers to upload videos and served the content to viewers. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's video encoding back-end converts uploaded videos to Flash Video. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube closed a $3.5 million Series A funding round in November 2005. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube identified cheap digital video recording technology and critical mass of home broadband as enabling market conditions. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube launched on June 11th and has already overtaken all previously existing competitors, becoming the dominant player in its space. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's purpose is to become the primary outlet of user-generated video content on the Internet and to allow anyone to upload, share, and browse this content. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | projection | YouTube plans to generate revenue through advertising, acting as a for-pay distribution channel for promotional videos, charging members for premium features, and charging viewers for premium content. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube provides a community that connects users to videos, users to users, and videos to videos. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube has overtaken all previously existing competitors and is now the dominant player in the space. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube allows consumers to upload videos and serves the content to millions of viewers. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's video encoding back-end converts uploaded videos to Flash Video. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's founding team includes Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, and Jawed Karim, who have backgrounds at PayPal and Stanford/University of Illinois. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's team included Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, and Jawed Karim, all with PayPal backgrounds. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube's back-end converted uploaded videos to Flash Video. | Unresolved |
| 2005-08-01 | YouTube | assertion | YouTube launched on June 11th. | Unresolved |
| 2008-10-01 | Airbnb | projection | Airbnb projected $200 million in revenue from 2008-2011 based on 10.6 million trips at $20 average commission. | Contradicted |
| 2008-10-01 | Airbnb | projection | Airbnb planned to target events and partnerships, including a Craigslist dual posting feature with a listing widget. | Unresolved |
| 2008-10-01 | Airbnb | assertion | Airbnb takes a 10% commission on each transaction, with an average fee of $70/night at 3 nights. | Unresolved |
| 2008-10-01 | Airbnb | assertion | Airbnb's total available market is 532 million budget and online trips, with a serviceable available market of 10.6 million trips. | Unresolved |
| 2008-10-01 | Airbnb | assertion | Airbnb is a web platform where users can rent out their space to host travelers, allowing travelers to save money, hosts to make money, and sharing local culture. | Unresolved |
| 2008-10-01 | Airbnb | assertion | Airbnb cited 630,000 users on couchsurfing.com and 17,000 temporary housing listings on SF & NYC Craigslist as market validation. | Unresolved |
| 2008-10-01 | Airbnb | assertion | Airbnb claimed competitive advantages including being first to market, host incentives, listing once, ease of use, profiles, and design and brand. | Unresolved |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | assertion | Uber's concept was a fast and efficient on-demand car service called UberCab using the latest consumer web and device technology. | Unresolved |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | assertion | Uber's technology included mobile phones with intelligent scheduling, payment/utilization, reputation tracking, and a patent-pending system design. | Unresolved |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | assertion | Uber planned to automate dispatch to reduce wait-time using geo-aware auto-dispatch technology. | Unresolved |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | projection | Uber's best-case scenario projected becoming market leader with $1B+ in yearly revenue per year profit. | Partially supported |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | assertion | Clients had to be members to use the service, and cars were hailed from a phone rather than from the street. | Unresolved |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | projection | Uber's realistic success scenario projected capturing 5% of the top 5 US cities and generating 20-30M+ clients per year. | Unresolved |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | assertion | By January, Uber had formed a California LLC, filed a trademark, set up a bank account and PayPal account, and by March had 5 advisors and 15 clients. | Unresolved |
| 2008-12-01 | Uber | assertion | Uber's go-to-market plan relied on referral virality through invite-only membership from existing members to become the ubiquitous premium cab service. | Unresolved |
| 2010-06-04 | prediction | Google's market valuation will surpass Apple's market valuation. | Contradicted | |
| 2010-06-04 | Sonos | prediction | Sonos will likely go public. | Verified |
| 2010-06-04 | prediction | Google will make their online spreadsheets and documents free. | Verified | |
| 2010-06-04 | Edgecast | prediction | CDN companies like Akamai, Limelight, and Edgecast will be acquired by telecom companies. | Partially supported |
| 2010-06-04 | Nintendo | prediction | Nintendo's DS business will be negatively affected by Apple's iPhone and iPod touch, and its Wii business will be encroached upon by the iPad. | Contradicted |
| 2010-06-17 | Backupify | prediction | Backupify will reach approximately 250,000 users by the end of 2010. | Contradicted |
| 2010-06-29 | ChaCha | prediction | ChaCha will go out of business. | Verified |
| 2010-06-29 | Blackberry | prediction | Most serious business people will continue to use a Blackberry instead of an iPhone. | Contradicted |
| 2010-06-29 | Bitly | prediction | Bitly will be acquired by Google, Yahoo, or Microsoft within 12 months. | Contradicted |
| 2010-06-29 | Apple | prediction | Most serious business people will not use an iPhone. | Contradicted |
| 2010-06-29 | prediction | Twitter will experience a vicious cycle of users transitioning out of the system, similar to what MySpace experienced. | Contradicted | |
| 2010-06-29 | prediction | You could have released more often, but it may not have changed the inevitability of Google drinking your milkshake. | Unresolved | |
| 2010-07-02 | Hulu | prediction | The Hulu Plus model of requiring an additional console-specific subscription (Xbox Live Gold or PlayStation Plus) on top of its own $9.99 subscription will fail. | Contradicted |
| 2010-08-05 | Amazon | prediction | Amazon's cloud business revenue could reach $2.5 billion by 2014. | Contradicted |
| 2010-09-02 | Palm | prediction | The Palm Pre will not be an 'iPhone killer' and will fail to diminish the iPhone's success. | Verified |
| 2010-09-10 | 2K Games | prediction | 2K Games will release a demo, followed by the retail version of Duke Nukem Forever, in 2011. | Verified |
| 2010-10-09 | Tiptopwebsite.Com | prediction | Tiptopwebsite.com will pursue and achieve an exit (acquisition or IPO) within 18 to 24 months. | Unverifiable |
| 2010-10-27 | Digg | prediction | Digg will recover from its current struggles (layoffs, bad press) and emerge as a stronger company. | Contradicted |
| 2010-11-06 | Eventbrite | prediction | Eventbrite will finish 2010 with over $200 million in gross ticket sales. | Contradicted |
| 2010-11-24 | Launch | prediction | The Launch conference will break even or generate a small profit. | Unverifiable |
| 2010-12-01 | GoPuff | prediction | GoPuff's true market valuation is between $10 billion and $15 billion. | Contradicted |
| 2010-12-07 | Hyundai | prediction | Hyundai will launch four vehicles achieving 40+ MPG in 2011, including the Accent. | Contradicted |
| 2010-12-09 | ComScore | prediction | comScore's stock value will drop to zero and the company will go away, displaced by free competitors like Quantcast and Compete. | Contradicted |
| 2010-12-13 | Hims & Hers | prediction | Hims & Hers will generate approximately $140 million in revenue in their first year as a public company with 70%+ gross margin | Partially supported |
| 2011-01-08 | Factual | prediction | Factual will become a billion-dollar company within five years. | Contradicted |
| 2011-01-12 | Apple | prediction | Apple will lower iPhone prices or break even on hardware costs due to app revenue, eventually giving away iPhones for free. | Contradicted |
| 2011-01-15 | prediction | Twitter's revenue will exceed $500 million and approach $1 billion. | Verified | |
| 2011-01-15 | prediction | Facebook's valuation will double after its IPO. | Verified | |
| 2011-01-22 | Vimeo | prediction | Vimeo will generate double-digit millions in revenue in 2011. | Verified |
| 2011-01-27 | Mougg | prediction | Mougg will continue to offer a free 1-gigabyte tier for its service. | Contradicted |
| 2011-02-18 | Apple | prediction | Robin Hart is saying Spotify is an iTunes killer. | Unresolved |
| 2011-03-10 | IBM | prediction | IBM's cloud revenues will not reach $7 billion by 2015. | Verified |
| 2011-03-17 | Amazon | prediction | By 2016, the majority of Amazon's revenue will come from cloud computing. | Contradicted |
Latest claims the live end of the ledger
| Said | Company | Type | Claim | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Unknown | prediction | They'll demand an enormous discount. And the reason they'll ask for an enormous discount is the other part of what Sax and Freebrook said, which is it creates massive long tail product liability risk, because you're effectively evading a known major risk. | Unresolved |
| 2026-09-12 | Unknown | prediction | I think that they have to choose between either renouncing this, quote, whistleblower as a Doomer op. ... Or they can agree with him, you know, in which case Bernie Sanders may be right that further development should be frozen, in which case I don't see how they can IPO now in the trillions. | Unresolved |
| 2026-09-12 | Anthropic | prediction | I think that they have to choose between either renouncing this, quote, whistleblower as a Doomer op. ... Or they can agree with him, you know, in which case Bernie Sanders may be right that further development should be frozen, in which case I don't see how they can IPO now in the trillions. | Unresolved |
| 2026-09-12 | Anthropic | prediction | They'll demand an enormous discount. And the reason they'll ask for an enormous discount is the other part of what Sax and Freebrook said, which is it creates massive long tail product liability risk, because you're effectively evading a known major risk. | Unresolved |
| 2026-09-05 | Unknown | prediction | this hugging face thing will go down as one of the most important transactions in AI, because you are creating now in the largest competitor and the largest, most well capitalized company, a bulwark against all of this closed source oligopoly insanity. And at the same time, what you're going to do is actually create more rational competition up and down the stack. | Unresolved |
| 2026-09-04 | Hugging Face | prediction | this hugging face thing will go down as one of the most important transactions in AI, because you are creating now in the largest competitor and the largest, most well capitalized company, a bulwark against all of this closed source oligopoly insanity. And at the same time, what you're going to do is actually create more rational competition up and down the stack. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Deep Cogito | assertion | Deep Cogito raised $43 million in Series A funding. | Verified |
| 2026-08-29 | Alice | assertion | Alice公司筹集了1.4亿美元资金。 | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Alice | assertion | Alice公司的这笔融资于2026年8月25日宣布。 | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Alice | assertion | Alice公司此次融资的领投方为Apax Digital Funds。 | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Alice | assertion | 该融资信息的来源是SiliconANGLE上关于Alice融资1.4亿美元且其AI安全业务增长超过500%的文章。 | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Socure | assertion | Socure raised $156 million in a funding round. | Verified |
| 2026-08-29 | Socure | assertion | Socure acquired an AI startup called Fravity. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Socure | assertion | Socure was valued at $5.2 billion at the time of the funding round. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Drillco Smoke | assertion | DrillCo Smoke has 14 paying customers currently. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Drillco Smoke | projection | DrillCo Smoke aims to reach $2M ARR by June 2027. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Drillco Smoke | assertion | Monthly churn is under 2%. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-29 | Drillco Smoke | assertion | DrillCo Smoke projects 40 enterprise logos by Q4 2027. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-24 | Unknown | prediction | they're going to ban Waymo's in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-24 | Unknown | prediction | I said two years ago, there's a chance that open source is going to win the AI race. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-21 | Openai | prediction | I said two years ago, there's a chance that open source is going to win the AI race. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-21 | Waymo | prediction | they're going to ban Waymo's in New York, Boston, DC, and they're going to limit them with licenses. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | if something just keeps compounding why would you sell out of it and so for example my intention with stripe is to just hold stripe for the next 10 years you know i think it's going to keep growing at a really good rate forever | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | we haven't even talked about starlink and what he's going to do uh you know i think going to run the table on mobile | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | goes up 10x or eventually 100x times and that's when they can do all the interesting things like direct to cellular there were some interesting hints that when shotwell talked about about with ground | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | I will say on the demand side and on the pricing side, if you pull up this quick note I have here, I think Anthropics growth rate is going to slow considerably next year. And it's been obviously on a tarot. There's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year. I think maybe they could, you know, triple get to three or 400 million. And the reason is watching startups and then also watching some of the large companies now embrace GLM five, two and Zuckerberg, which we'll get to in a moment, | Verified |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | And as a consequence, um, you know, we can dramatically reduce the, the, the cost of that commodity. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | You could have released more often, but it may not have changed the inevitability of Google drinking your milkshake. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | Robin Hart is saying Spotify is an iTunes killer. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | I guarantee you it's not legal. Okay. And I guarantee it will be found to not be legal to use other people's content to train a new intelligence that you can then go exploit that work. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | Glue is a Slack killer | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | the first real experiences people have with generative AI will come from Apple, not chat GPT. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | Who do you think wins more here? OpenAI for the integration. Okay. Or Apple who can hot swap out OpenAI at any point in time? Because I think this is Apple against OpenAI right now of who owns the consumer. And I don't think it's going to be OpenAI that owns the consumer. I think they know Apple's going to win the consumer. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | Okay, so that's my first point is that this is going to dramatically push us towards speech and away from touch. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | That's how Waymo operates. That's how we built it at Uber. And there's a new wave, um, especially the, Tesla's 12.0 release, which is end-to-end deep learning, end-to-end machine learning models. That's where the future will have to go towards because in the first phase of version 1.0, anytime we see an edge case, you have to take over by human, collect all the data, and an army of people have to intervene and understand what really happened. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-18 | Unknown | prediction | Just like if, you know, right now Tesla is buying batteries from Panasonic, wherever they buy them from. If they make their own batteries, if there was profit in the batteries, now they can either take that profit or they can make their product cheaper. I think Elon kind of signaled already he's going to make a 25k car or something. I think part of the idea of him bringing batteries internal is, yeah, we'll still use other people's batteries, but if we make our own, maybe we can cause the price | Verified |
| 2026-08-17 | Bittensor | prediction | And as a consequence, um, you know, we can dramatically reduce the, the, the cost of that commodity. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-17 | Unknown | prediction | I said, Oh, this has already been done. Jason and David had already built, uh, um, campfire. There was hip chat. I was, I was kind of thinking this is going to have a hard path ahead of it. | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-17 | Unknown | prediction | the idea was Amazon would not win it all, and merchants would want to have a direct relationships with their customers | Unresolved |
| 2026-08-17 | Unknown | prediction | You could see James Bond over the next 50 years producing a movie every two years, 25 movies, doing a billion dollars each, that's $25 billion in box office, completely possible. | Unresolved |