Databricks

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The platform's own early signals for this company — hard-to-fake, and where one preceded a real raise, the measured lead.

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• bullish assessment Sunny Madra

  and then meta and then Databricks. Uh, and there's another one we'll bring up mistral as well today. Uh, the, these, these folks are fully open, uh, commercial use case is different. The commercial use, uh, differs based on their licenses, but in general, they're sharing everything and we're seeing really fast innovation. So that's the level set.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Yeah. So the first one, you know, we're, we're partnering very closely with meta now. Um, so we basically said, what's the point of providing another choice, uh, unless there's

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  DBRX and other open source models came out, Mistrol and others that were better, you know, at the time.

• bullish prediction Naveen Rao

  in that same timeframe, can we double the price? And I think that doesn't sound crazy, right? In three years, can I double the price?

• bullish assessment Naveen Rao

  the valuation and stock price of Databricks is strictly less risk than Mosaic.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Yeah, and then you have Databricks, which just raised the largest private round ever.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  it's hard to feel the effect of the Databricks $2 billion acquisition of Tabular. But it is happening.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Databricks has been acquisitive.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  So you have things like Databricks and Snowflake, incredible companies that do huge batch training jobs, a billion rows at a time, billions of users. Great. Wonderful. But then in sort of the context of an application, you want to serve those answers really quickly. And so what people do today is they take the train data and they'll cache it in something called a feature store, which is really just a cache. And then they can serve really low latency answers inside of an application. But the prob

• neutral fact_claim Mark Fried-Finnegan

  If you think about stuff that's processed in batch, which is really what training is doing, that's what Databricks is doing. Everyone used to process everything in batch.

• bullish assessment Alex

  Databricks is one of the most valuable startups in the world, period.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  This is pretty stunning.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Databricks, of course, competes with Snowflake. Uh, if you don't, didn't know that sits on top of your AWS or Azure, Google cloud, whatever, and it helps categorize and manage your data. So it's easier to access

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Hey, did you see data bricks is acquiring mosaic ML for 1.3 billion dollars.

• mixed assessment David Friedberg

  one, he's a tremendous founder with a huge vision that's incredibly costly. That last part is the issue. We've got a lot of great founders. Not enough, but we've got a lot of great ones. And he's got a big vision. We need to see more big vision. But his vision was so big that funding it, I think, has turned out to be very challenging. And hardware takes longer than you think. ... So I suspect this was not done. This was done out of necessity and opportunity, but in that order.

• bullish fact_claim David Friedberg

  he did his whole Uber is not worth 17 billion. And we kind of all laughed at this because he estimated the value of Uber at 5.9 billion. Now we, all the smart people who weren't in an Ivy League school or whatever, in the ivory tower teaching the course, we saw it on the inside. And here is where he basically guesses here that, you know, he would settle on 10% of the hundred billion dollar market for Lincoln town cars, as we talked about.

• bullish prediction David Friedberg

  And I think for your education one, it might be people who are being displaced by AI, realizing they need to provide more value to their, for their employment opportunities. So therefore they take professional development

• bullish assessment Brian

  It absolutely is. Right. And luckily, I think we operate in an environment where it's sort of well understood that we may not be the best people to estimate the temp or total addressable market. Again, when Uber first came around, I think many asked, Hey, what is the addressable market for black cars? And when Airbnb came around, what is the market for house swapping? There's no equivalent. I'll give you an even more useful example where Eleven Labs initial product was dubbing. So the natural qu

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  I want to get Brian to jump in on this, but just to underscore the Databricks growth numbers that David's talking about, the company announced a couple months ago that it's now over a $4 billion run rate growing at more than 50% year over year. And critically, David said that it has now a greater than $1 billion run rate just for its AI products. So it's a growth story, an AI story. It's a win all the way up and down.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  You know, we've seen over the last few years that the best companies are, are continue to compound growth rates that are quite frankly, that amazing. I hadn't expected, you know, again, Databricks is a really good example. You know, the fact that that company has been able to compound its revenue at scale at the rate it has, and, and looking at how that's then driven the valuation of that firm is, is just incredible. And five years ago, nobody would have predicted that, you know, that's going to

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  Brian was kind of grinding his teeth a little bit on the valuation I saw there. It was competitive, but that's what great founders do. They create a marketplace and then they wind up picking the investor they want anyway. So Brian probably gave him a term sheet. He created a marketplace. He got Brian to come up a little bit. Brian, you know, has to grind his teeth a little bit. But to David's point, we've never seen startups break the, you know, triple, triple, double, double, uh, SaaS revenue r

• bullish endorsement David Clark

  Third, this is big and ambitious, right? Like the total addressable market is anybody who wants to learn that's everybody, right? So it's not just for kids. It's not for high school kids. It's not just for biology. It's for any thing you want to learn. Great. They had an exit before they've worked together before they're clearly competent. So you've removed a lot of the things that we at pre-seed stage contend with, which is, has this team done it before? Do they have what it takes? This team ob

• bullish endorsement David Friedberg

  in evaluating this type of deal, it's got a lot of the things we look for at our fund. Number one, you have a serial founder, which is great. I'm assuming that some members of his previous team, Brian joined him for this adventure, taking a guess. That's absolutely right. That would be the, a team that has worked together before. So those are two of the factors we look for.

• bullish endorsement Bryan Kim

  I think that gives a little bit of indication of how, you know, how well respected he is in industry, how good the product was. So, you know, a lot of times I tend to try to make decisions on an independent basis. So I looked at the product, I knew the founder, I understood the metrics. So sort of made that bet, but it was competitive.

• bullish fact_claim Bryan Kim

  Alex, I would say he had a term sheet or two. He let me know that he had a term sheet or two. They didn't tell necessarily where they were from.

• bullish assessment Brian Kim

  when I use the product, it was smooth, it was quick, and it was deep in terms of what I learned.

• bullish endorsement Brian Kim

  we've been on the lookout for a product like Oboe for a long time. And then we've known Nir for a while. He sort of built a product called Anchor that powers a lot of the podcasts as part of Spotify. And I think he was extremely sincere and genuine in his large vision of helping a billion people learn trillion things. And that size of an ambition, a team focused on product who can build incredible stuff at speed was, was some of the key things that really got us excited.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  So it's about one third larger than Databricks, but growing less than a half as quickly in percentage terms, which I think implies that Databricks is going to outstrip it what next year in terms of total revenue scale.

• neutral assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  So it seems like Databricks is trading at a 50% higher premium, I guess, because it's got twice the growth, right? So this is where eventually your market cap, the value of your company, the, the growth rate factors in.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  So it's growing quite quickly. Over 60% growth in Q3, which is the October 31 quarter, if you care, will cross 60% year over year growth, more than 60% year over year. And it's going to cross $3 billion in ARR and reach free cash flow positivity inside its current quarter, according to its own internal projections.

• neutral assessment Jason Calacanis

  No, they said it was non-dilutive. When you raise a round of capital, you're selling shares in Andreessen Horowitz, DST, Yuri Milner's amazing firm, Insight Partners. These are investors who want equity, but maybe there's some kind of weird conversion that happens when the IPO happens. This is like a Mez round of financing, I guess. There used to be this thing called a mezzanine round. The mezzanine round existed when there was just venture capital and IPOs and a Mez round was a year before the

• neutral assessment Alex Wilhelm

  It's slightly different than that. And that that's the same headline that I saw. And then I went and I actually read the Databricks announcement. Here's the thing, Justin, the language gets a little weird. So Databricks series J, they are going to raise 10 billion. J Cal, here we go. J as in J curve. I mean, you know, they've completed $8.6 billion of this to date. So they've gotten 86% of the $10 billion. They will get the other 1.4. I'll explain why in a second. What tripped me out though, was

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  I saw there was an extraordinary private fundraise, not for SpaceX, not for Stripe. Those are the other two giant private companies, but Databricks just raised $10 billion in the private markets.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  That's a reason to buy a company like this. If people get more value from your product and you're creating all these databases, getting all these results, that means it's stickier.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  They spend a billion dollars roughly on a startup called Neon. And I'm gonna tell people what it does and a little bit about it and not go too much deeper because we don't have database, Jason. They took database tech, put it up in the cloud as a managed service and are doing quite well with it. The reason why Databricks wants them is not strictly because they have cool technology, a growing customer base and so forth. It's because in 2024, they discovered that agentic AI and what they offered h

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Snowflake which competes with Databricks also acquired Neva

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  if this is half that amount because they bought it with monopoly money in other words their 2021 price for their company it's great

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I don't think it's a crazy deal

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I think it's probably a smart acquisition for both Databricks

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  Databricks which is a privately held data infrastructure company announced that they were acquiring Mosaic ML for 1.3 billion dollars that headline number is price where the value of the stock that was being used to acquire Mosaic ML was based off of the last round valuation for Databricks which was 38 billion dollars from a fundraising that they did in 2021 so arguably the valuation should be lower and the overall purchase price could be considered lower but that's besides the point ... there's

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  even for private companies if databricks is valued at 150 billion dollars for them to issue a billion or two billion of their stock it's less dilution to them and they can do that and they can actually turbocharge

• bullish fact_claim Thomas Laffont

  he told me, please remind the audience that I'm growing in excess of 60%. So I put that. That while I'm burning money, I'm actually getting much more efficient. So I said that I would obviously say that. And he also gave me a non-public data point around his cloud business, which is now 500 million of ARR, which was almost zero a few years ago.

• bullish assessment Thomas Laffont

  Databricks is a founder-led company. Snowflake was more of a managerial-led company. Maybe that's one way to kind of interpret what happened. Maybe another is to say, if you're a public company and you need to be profitable for your shareholders, and your biggest competitor is private and can incinerate and burn a lot of money, maybe that makes a difference.

• bullish fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  If you look at the companies that use that software, those companies generate enormous revenues and enormous margins, and these products are in critical production workflows that underlie those revenues and profits.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  That's more revenue than the annual revenue of Databricks and Snowflake that are two of the greatest software companies of all time after 12 years, right?

1. 2028-02-16 in that same timeframe, can we double the price? And I think that doesn't sound crazy, right? In three years, can I double the price? · Prediction · confirmed
2. 2028-02-05 And I think for your education one, it might be people who are being displaced by AI, realizing they need to provide more value to their, for their employment opportunities. So therefore they take professional development · Prediction · confirmed

VentureSignalScore 69.5/100 for databricks, composed from 1 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.79 for 30% signal coverage