DoorDash

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• neutral fact_claim David Friedberg

  you know illegally against their terms of service you know and just having somebody show up and buy it and deliver it because there's demand pent up there yes but you're going to get a legal letter the second you get to the thousandth order you know you're going to get to the thousandth order real

• mixed assessment Chris Webb

  when they first launched and they said, we're just going to charge 14%, there's no crazy fees. And this is when they were losing tremendous amounts of money and they- Yeah, they were building a business. Exactly. And so they're undercutting and they're just trying to get their foot in the door. And so that's where the math made sense for the restaurant. Now, with what the math you just described, where it is that $15 of that $50 order went to actually fulfill the delivery and it went a mile or t

• bearish fact_claim Chris Webb

  The majority of our restaurants do their own delivery still today, despite the press that DoorDash, Uber Eats, and everyone else gets. The vast majority of the restaurants on our platform still do their own delivery.

• neutral fact_claim Chris Webb

  20% is for a good restaurant that's negotiated a good rate. You will find in New York City, which is a competitive market on these delivery apps, some restaurants paying up to 40%. And that's not specific to DoorDash. That is just the broad spectrum.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  Remember, DoorDash kept putting In-N-Out Burger. In-N-Out Burger specifically does not want delivery.

• neutral fact_claim Chris Webb

  Absolutely. And so those two companies really kind of invented this practice. They scaled very quickly because of it, I think, in kind of tech terms, kind of a growth hack type maneuver. And Grubhub never did that. And ironically, DoorDash and others have been moving away from this practice.

• bearish assessment Chris Webb

  I see the same kind of headlines around the market and the restaurant delivery dominated by these three or four main players. In reality, they make up a decent chunk, but far from the majority of orders.

• bearish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  Companies are losing money on every delivery, and it's not like one company is running away with this. Not even close.

• bearish assessment Jason Calacanis

  It is not owned by DoorDash, Postmates, Grubhub, Uber Eats, and the like. In fact, those delivery services are a fraction of the overall delivery.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  Uber Eats, DoorDash also marketplaces between drivers, restaurants and consumers. So it's really like a three sided marketplace when you think about it. Those are the type of businesses that investors typically want to invest in because we've seen over and over again, they're high margin and they're high scale, high margin. They don't have a high cost of goods high scale. Because you know, the 100th person coming in doesn't require any handholding. The 10,000th

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  and of course you got to give stanley and the team over at doordash a lot of credit as well this has changed how millennials look at consumption and food and just how they architect their lives

• bullish fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  airbnb is growing coinbase is growing uber's growing doordash is growing you know they would just stay private longer right stay private longer

• bullish endorsement Pejman Nozad

  You know, I completely agree. If I, um, Tony is the CEO of DoorDash. If I text him right now that Tony has catch up over lunch or so on, he gets back to me maybe this weekend. But if I tell him that I was in Napa, this store doesn't deliver DoorDash, two minutes. Priorities, customers and your team, not really.

• bullish endorsement Pejman Nozad

  That's why we didn't sell any shares. I think most of the seed investors sold. Most of the institution kept, but everybody sold except us.

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  maybe people treat themselves to a door dash more often you know once more a month twice more a month

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  i was fortunate enough to sell my last company to doordash which helped fund a lot of the initial company it was called b bot it was an online ordering point of sale company um actually backed by craft ventures so i made them some money when we sold that for a good amount of money

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  doordash and uber merging or you know amazon spitting out zooks and merging it with uber or lyft you know some combination of those will make for you know 250 to 500 billion dollar companies with real revenue and it's just great for investors as well because now the investors in each of these companies have a greater chance of success they wouldn't have voted for it if it wouldn't increase the chances of success

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So that's 4 billion right there. It's a huge Australian food delivery startup.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  We had, uh, two companies bought by DoorDash. Seven rooms and Deliveroo.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  and their fees are still going down the fees are going down the membership programs are going up

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  consumers picked doordash because doordash listen i'm gonna i'm team uber you know that but i think doordash had a better interface and had better restaurants on it they were about 20 better on a product basis that's why they were leading uber has since caught up uber has added some other things but i would still give a five percent edge maybe a ten percent edge to doordash's ux i think they've just they polished it a little bit better and i think they had some exclusives and that's okay called

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  even the one you're talking about you know where there was consolidation and food delivery and there has been some yeah what was bought were intended to be the unprofitable you know dying companies or sideways companies that everybody saw the writing on the

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  doordash bought walt ubereats bought insta cart no instagram um postmates postmates so we have seen some contraction occasionally but those have remained robust competitive markets which i think is i i think it's okay to say that a deal might be constrictive of competition but because there's so many players still left it's sufficiently competitive to not warrant risk

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  I'm more convinced than ever that DoorDash drivers are going away. That entry-level run job is going to be done by these little four-wheel R2-D2s, the COCO and- Serve Robotics. Serve Robotics. Those things are working. I think they're largely flawless, and if one of them gets knocked out, who cares? They are remote-operated. There's teleoperation going on there, but soon it won't be. The drone delivery seemed farcical, and now it feels inevitable to me.

• neutral fact_claim Matt Rouif

  the best, like, you know, Dbop, DoorLash, they're seeing their, they were seeing the app and they say, can you do that at scale? Like, that's exactly what I need. I just need it at scale. And so we started working with some of the, all the adopters of AI. And this led to, well, getting some of the like smaller, like international part of DoorLash using us. And they had like the best photo of the company. So then DoorLash is asking, how do you make these photos to this subsidiary? And, and they s

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  when you have doordash and uber that are free cash flow positive that have strong brands and that can redeploy those profits back into compete in those markets i think it's very tough

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  you know uber doordash there's a couple of these behemoths getting built doordash being the most obvious

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  doordash was down 55 so these are some big moves and so you know uh it made sense that instacart had to get kind of like reset

• neutral fact_claim David Friedberg

  if you said i want to compete with doordash uber eats postmates today well they've got all the restaurants online does a restaurant want the seventh ipad the eighth ipad that

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Instacart, they're all being kind of pushed towards, you know, show us reality, show us you can ring the register, and that there's some money left at the end of the day.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  compared to doordash uber and amazon which are well amazon owns whole foods so if you're getting groceries from them at least you know you're getting groceries from a whole food so they have that delivery um they have the fulfillment centers built into their delivery premise whereas doordash and uber are getting it from restaurants or ghost kitchens

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  they're going to be coming up against amazon doordash and ubereats and those are going to be formidable competitors

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  who's going to be able to survive for a decade doordash uber eats um amazon and it feels like gopuff but it doesn't feel like anybody after that has much of a chance of surviving

• bullish assessment Doug Leone

  And to this day, DoorDash is one of the best run company in Silicon Valley, it's a tough business, with Tony running a terrific operation.

• bullish assessment Doug Leone

  the very best thing about those situations, those founders tend to be razor sharp, there's nothing like being at the precipice of death, to make you sharp.

• bullish fact_claim David Friedberg

  people don't know this, perhaps not fully public information. They were I spoke to the founders, and there was a large late stage, let's call it Johnny come lately firm that was splashing cash around market was hot. They dragged him on for a year, couldn't get the deal closed. And the company DoorDash was facing the risk of ruin, you guys came in and saved the day with a pretty large round and a pretty risky bet.

• neutral fact_claim Doug Leone

  I remember in DoorDash, we wanted to do the series B and the seal rightfully said, I've got your Rolodex. Let me go get a second Rolodex.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  And if you can thread that needle, you'll see what happened to Uber in the last quarter, you'll see it happen with DoorDash.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  Door dash also raised a lot of money from Masayoshi son. And they also are one of the last people standing here.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  And that's why Uber won over and Lyft and DoorDash every that whole group won. Because they were so good to the drivers.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So I think now that they're, I don't wanna say a monopoly, but a duopoly with DoorDash and a, you know, almost a monopoly with Lyft suffering.

• neutral prediction Stanley Tang

  we want door dash to be, it's just, it's just going to be one of many companies that's going to help enable that transition.

• bullish fact_claim Stanley Tang

  like a warehouse or, or a virtual or what, what they call ghost kitchens or ghost convenience stores, which we're, um, making a big push, it's, it's, it's, which we call dash marks

• bullish assessment Stanley Tang

  COVID kind of made merchants realize kind of the importance of having a kind of a, what I call like, I guess like an online or e-commerce strategy, right? And then the crop applies to restaurants and also just any local business. I mean, I think before COVID, like, I'm like less than like 20% of, or maybe even less have, have, of, of, of small business businesses had like an online presence. And that number has obviously jumped significantly higher now. And, and door dash is a great platform to

• bullish fact_claim Stanley Tang

  we decided, okay, like we're going to reduce our, our commission, our cut from the restaurant... we kind of slashed everyone's commission by 50% across the board. Uh, you know, which, you know, in the short term costed us a lot of money, but we felt like it was the right thing to do long term.

• bullish fact_claim Stanley Tang

  during COVID, it kind of just, you know, yeah, I remember like every week, like it was like a record week and it was just, it was just a lot to just even keep up.

• bullish assessment Stanley Tang

  if you're spending all the money to subsidize and there's a result, you have negative unit economics, but you're getting a lot of growth. That's very different than, um, you know, if you have positive growth and, or positive unit economics, but then you're spending that money for maybe geography expansion, or you're spending it on customer acquisition, where, you know, you're, you, you know, what your payback period is like, it's like not every dollar burned is like the same, right?

• bullish assessment Stanley Tang

  always, you know, kept us in check and, and, and said, Hey, like you, we, you know, it's important to continue to stay super efficient.

• bullish assessment Stanley Tang

  when the soft bank round did come in, in 2018, late 2018, then all the work we did between 2015 and 2018 sort of paid off because now we were just, uh, structurally, we were just much more efficient than our competitors. Like we had better unit economics. Uh, we had better product, better quality, uh, you know, much more efficient.

• bullish assessment Stanley Tang

  I think, and I whenever people ask me, well, what's the word actually super power, you know, it's our ability to execute and our, you know, maniacal focus on like unit economics, operational excellence. ... And between 2016, 2018, that was when I felt DoorDash was a company was built because we didn't have the money. ... we had to get to unit economics, profitable.

• neutral fact_claim Stanley Tang

  for a very long time, we actually couldn't raise money. Like, like, I think I remember between 2015 and 2018, when everything started, you know, Uber was going crazy, like all these funds, he started coming in, we weren't actually one of the beneficiaries of it. Like we, um, you know, we, we struggled to raise money.

• neutral fact_claim Stanley Tang

  And I remember one day we walked into this macaroon store ... she started showing me this book label, which just turns out was her order bookkeeping ... and majority of them she had to turn away. ... And as I started talking to Chloe and she said, well, I don't want to turn them down. I wished there was a solution out there, but unfortunately ... if I have a delivery request that comes in, I pretty much have one of two choices. First is I could do it myself ... it takes time away from the store

• neutral fact_claim Stanley Tang

  we had like eight restaurants on a landing page called, it was called PaloAltodelivery.com.

• neutral fact_claim Stanley Tang

  So, I mean, so we started 2013, and I'll get to the PaloAltodelivery bit later. But I mean, it's funny because we really weren't trying to do a startup. It was literally one of those typical Stanford dorm room class projects. We weren't trying to do a startup or even a food company or delivery company. The, I think, I think me and I met my co-founders, Andy and Tony, through, I met, Andy was in my freshman year dorm. And then Tony, we met through a, one of those project-based classes at Stanford

• bullish endorsement David Friedberg

  So if you're at the chat GPT website, you're at the Grok website or the Claude website, it says connect your New York Times account, connect your Disney plus, connect your Netflix. When you do that, all of a sudden those characters light up, you click on the Mandalorian and you, it gives you prompts already.

• mixed criticism Unattributed

  It's very easy to work around. There are guardrails to prevent you. If you just wrote like Shrek at a rave, it might be like, we can't do that because Shrek is a licensed character. But you can, like in this case, I didn't say a character name. I said a Jedi Knight talks his way out of a parking ticket. And you could see the results right here. It did it. No problem.

• bullish assessment Lon Harris

  It can fill in the gaps for you. So if you give it a funny premise, Sora's very good at figuring out what the joke is or what the bit is and actually filling in the details in a way that adds value to the premise you came up with.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I wanted to stop by and talk about it because I do feel like this is a genuine step up from where we've been.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  It has reached the absolute top of the iOS app store here in the United States, besting even ChatGPT, besting even Google Gemini, which means that OpenAI has yet another hit on its hand.

• bearish criticism David Friedberg

  I think it's a bad trade. I think when they go public, they might have a hard time sustaining this price. It could go to a trillion based on people being enthusiastic or irrationally exuberant. If you remember those two words from another era, irrational exuberance. We are in the irrational exuberance era right now with private companies like OpenAI.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  This is a secondary offering, folks, so it's employees selling their shares. But what was interesting, Jason, is that there was a total of $10.3 billion in authorized sales, but only $6.6 billion traded hands. Why? Not a demand issue, a supply issue. Employees in the company didn't put up as many shares as they could have in this tender offer, which people are taking to indicate that they're big believers in the company.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  First of all, it is now the most valuable private company in the world. OK, just squeaking back SpaceX, which we talked about a minute ago, and the tender offer was worth about $6.6 billion in total.

• bearish criticism David Friedberg

  Maybe Midjourney should have done Vibes. Maybe they should have hired 10 more developers to do Sora, right? And make an app and a social network. So they're probably not taking advantage of the moment enough and not putting that work, putting that to work.

• bearish criticism Jason Calacanis

  Midjourney was built by a bunch of rich people. And it was early, and they have a ton of revenue, and it looks like their annual revenue is 500 million, so they're making 12 million per employee. Obviously, that's not sustainable or real. It might be for them for some period of time.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  They save us time and they make us superhuman.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  AlphaSense has a massive searchable database of public companies and that lets us quickly dig up the most relevant facts and context. And their equity funding screener includes private companies, not just the public ones.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  They're the world's number one most trusted AI platform for market intelligence.

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  I think the entire future of Reddit is to go there and get an LLM search box and then underneath it have, you know, make it look like Google with the search box or perplexity or anybody, Brave Search, DuckDuckGo, DuckDuckGo, have it be a search engine and underneath it have all of the top communities. And then it should be studying you and doing your for you page and serving you up stuff. And they really should just assume that the era of free search engine traffic is going to be deprecated slow

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  Reddit put together its own search product that you and I were pretty bullish on, but then doesn't seem to be discussed or mentioned. I never see people using it. So I wonder if their own kind of in-house search portal is a bit of a flop, which surprises me, frankly, given that I thought that was going to be successful.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  Clearly it's taken quite a lot of blows. It was around 240 earlier in the week and now it is down to $208 per share. So yes, a lot of downward pressure there, perhaps from the Google SEO situation.

• neutral prediction Jason Calacanis

  And I think every LLM will have a browser to do this.

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  So I think the other thing that's interesting is these browsers are a backdoor for training data. If Reddit and Hacker News and Tech Meme do not allow an LLM to scrape their content, right, or to otherwise produce it, well, I'm running a tool on my computer and I'm scraping the website. I'm opening the browser windows. So since it's my browser and my IP address and the Mac address of, you know, my computer, it's not their scrapers going and doing things in the world.

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  So the cost of capital for AI companies is very cheap right now. So it probably does not matter if they've raised hundreds of millions of dollars, if they lose an extra $1 or $2 million a month at this point in time.

• neutral assessment Jason Calacanis

  And can you make tens of billions of dollars back by the time those data centers are, you know, fully deprecated? And so that is the question of the hour. That's probably why they took a little bit of time to launch this.

• mixed assessment Jason Calacanis

  I think they probably did this right. They knew it was, when you use the Comet browser or any of these AI browsers, I think your utilization of AI goes way up. It's just front and center in the browser. So you're probably costing them more money and they probably were concerned.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  the latest news is that Perplexity, Jason, a company that's best known for its AI Surge products and also launched the Comet AI-infused browser that we talked about on the show a number of times, not only made the browser available for free instead of just for some of its paid users, but also just took the waitlist off of it. Said it had millions of people waiting to use it. And this is a pretty aggressive move.

• neutral fact_claim David Friedberg

  hosting their code for others to you hosting it yeah so you know just like wordpress like you could literally take the wordpress code put up a server and do all that but if you want the latest version you want faster servers you want somebody doing the security and the operations and upgrading it and installing the patches you just go with the hosted version and the cost of you uh managing your own reflection ai servers uh if you're doing something small to mid-size is greater than having the re

• mixed prediction Unattributed

  when you open source this stuff you you create a bunch of competitors if it works so reflection ai will inspire a bunch of people to create hosted versions of

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  i'm sure their business model will be just like wordpress hey we got this open source project here or mysql we had open source project here but we have a for-profit you know so there's a dot org and a dot com right the dot com wordpress.com you pay for hosting

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  i hope they make a model that really challenges the closed source models and the expensive models and drives price down

• bullish endorsement David Sacks

  great to see more american open source ai models a meaningful segment of the global market will prefer the cost customizability and control that open source offers we want the us to win this category too

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  they are very similar to what deep seek's doing they're building open source ai models they're trying to make them sort of faster and more efficient than some of the big behemoth models uh that we've been seeing from open ai xai and anthropic

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  another company here in the united states we just announced a big round and they're just doing open source like deep seek in china so we're starting to see open source llms come to america and funded companies doing that

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  i think what they should do is give you the ability to put a banner at the top of the bottom persistently in all of these put a watermark on it like they have sora and the watermark should be like whatever you want it to be costplusdrugs.com

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  the apps in chat gpt is not available on work accounts which is a problem that i face so i had to use it on my personal account

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  it was able to create it in like 10 to 30 seconds it was pretty quick

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  it's so done it's the same thing it's also what they did with sora they bypassed the paid level and they just started giving it to people with invites for free no respect no respect for the subscribers i get no respect for putting my credit card in

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  not to business users first and give it to the free users it makes no sense this is exactly what google does

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  mark cuban has put himself in oh he now will let you anybody on sora can make videos with mark cuban but the clever wrinkle here most of the cameos include a promotion for his company cost plus drugs he actually got it so at the end of the cameo with him they actually bring up a little message saying you know visit cost plus drugs or promoting cost plus drugs

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  jake paul the youtube influencer turned wrestler boxer uh he says that he is an open ai investor now he's been advising the sora team behind the scenes and that he agreed to be the first celebrity name image and likeness cameo user ... he believes that letting people do whatever they want with his likeness makes him more popular so have at it ... in six days my cameo generated over 1 billion views

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  but of course there's been a lot of controversy about the inclusion of real people there was a zelda williams robin williams daughter has publicly asked people please stop sending her ai generated videos of her dad it makes her very sad there was another controversial thing a lot of people are making offensive videos of stephen hawking in his wheelchair being blown up or thrown off of buildings people are as we mentioned on the show the other day people are making martin luther king say crazy th

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  it's been number one on the apple app store since launching

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  sora very much in the news hugely popular app it's blowing up it already hit one million downloads in just five days after launching that is very notably according to open ai faster than chat gpt hit the same milestone

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  we also have this Sequoia Heritage kind of Sequoia fund.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  It's probably going to be Sequoia because they're trying to keep it more boutique-y.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  Sequoia is trying to keep the industry small, focused, and elite. Because that's how they made their big wins, right? You don't want to chase. So they're trying to keep their fund size the same so they can have that IRR.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  Well, I look forward to you taking that company public and getting them off the bench, Jason.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So, you know, if you want to, like, send people their laptop and, you know, make sure you understand what they're doing with their computers and all that stuff, yeah, all that is kind of in this.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  But, you know, they do HR, but it's more than just payroll. It's not just ADP. They'll also do, like, IT services.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  That's why I felt like their 14.4X multiple felt a little bit low because, you know, Rippling is, you know, a $500 million valuation difference in roughly half the revenue.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  But they both have essentially the same $17 billion valuation. So that's fascinating. I wonder why the one with twice as much revenue doesn't get a double valuation or why the one with half as much revenue. If that's true, it's a private company. It's hard to get the information.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  According to reporting that I could find, it's much smaller than Deal. But I don't really want to index too much on that because these are companies that handle a lot of payroll.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  The Rippling ARR number was 570 million earlier in 2025. They're both companies at scale, Jason, that could go public at will. So we look forward to those in 2029, I guess.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  DoorDash, they're not taking the zip line or the street robots for granted. They're making their own.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  So DoorDash isn't going to take it sitting down, and they've already got the network effect. But here is the DoorDash robot. So instead of DoorDash partnering with folks, they made this. It can drive, as you can see, in the street. Look at it. Boom. It can park in a parking spot. So it comes to your, you know, DoorDash, it comes to a DoorDash restaurant, comes to the McDonald's, and the person steps out, drops it in the front of the bay. And this thing zips, I believe, 25 or 35 miles per hour on

• mixed assessment Jason Calacanis

  That DoorDash has spent over a decade building those relationships and building that fabric. ... Well, they're doing that at the same time that DoorDash is sending their proprietary robot.

• bullish assessment Alex Wilhelm

  Well, it's not easy to run over DoorDash because they have all those relationships with the restaurant.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  That's how we serve everybody on DoorDash and OverEats and Amazon is with passenger cars and, and trucks.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  I don't think they're trying to like do what uber and doordash did or lyft and doordash where they're losing money on every transaction

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  doordash series d 1.4 billion post 2018 he did well

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  And so they are going to be fighting themselves.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  DoorDash has their own hardware now. But now think, let's take Uber out of it for a second and just think for first principles about DoorDash. DoorDash has DoorDashers that are doing 99.99% of deliveries. And in some cases, there are unions, and they've been fighting over in every single locale about minimum wage, and do they get paid for down time? Percentage of their tips that they get. There's all sorts of like ins and outs, yeah.

• neutral fact_claim Thomas Laffont

  whether it's DoorDash or Instacart or Block, you can see that even great new companies like those are available at pretty reasonable multiples.

• mixed assessment Thomas Laffont

  But let's look at these three, DoorDash, Block, and Shopify. Three incredible entrepreneurs, Tony from DoorDash, Jack from Block, and Toby from Shopify. You can see that these companies have incredible scale. If you just look at the GMV and the revenues, you can see that over this period of time, they got significantly more profitable. But you can see that on a PE basis, the multiple shrank significantly, and the growth just wasn't fast enough to kind of offset the lower multiple.

1. 2028-02-16 maybe people treat themselves to a door dash more often you know once more a month twice more a month · Prediction · pending

VentureSignalScore 51/100 for doordash, composed from 2 of 4 components (index v0 cross-signal), discounted ×0.85 for 50% signal coverage