Snowflake

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The platform's own early signals for this company — hard-to-fake, and where one preceded a real raise, the measured lead.

• TLS certificate transparency 8 signals · latest 2024-03-19

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• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  if you look at snowflake that's 35 i think their stock-based comp is at 35 of their revenue number and that's when people get a little tweaked is when uh you know this gets to be 20 30 of revenue so just small in the weeds observation

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  their price-sales ratio today is 16.2x, when as high as 24 in the last couple of quarters

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  companies like snowflake and Peloton sure cloudflare zoom we're trading at 70 to 100 times revenue and people are reevaluating whether those multiples are worth it irrespective of the quality of the company because those are very high quality companies

• bullish endorsement Brad Gerstner

  he came into snowflake when it was growing over 300 percent and he he you know he he reconstituted what what that culture was about to prepare for wartime right because he says when wartime comes right and it gets challenging i want to run the field right i don't want to be laying off employees i want to be that's the time to hire that's the time to press the advantage that's the time to invest in product that's the time to win the new customers

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  when you think in the public tech markets what is a reliable must own company well i would put snowflake in the list of these must own um high growth software businesses

• bullish assessment Brad Gerstner

  let's say we reduce the multiple by 50 but the company's growing top line and free cash flow by a hundred percent doesn't take you very long to grow through the multiple compression so snowflakes multiple is plummeting for two reasons one because the stock price came down number two because right their growth rate and free cash flow growth is so high

• bullish assessment Brad Gerstner

  snowflake became a poster child in the public markets of a high priced uh sas business snowflake this year will grow its free cash flow at over a hundred percent a year next year probably you know 80 or 90 free cash flow not just revenue free cash flow in q4 i think they booked 1.4 billion of revenue q4 on a business that entirely in last year did 1.2 billion in revenue right

• neutral fact_claim Frank Slootman

  Well, getting people, you know, off the bus, is sort of job number one. In other words, you immediately have to start sorting, you know, what am I going to keep? What am I not going to keep? It's not like, you know, I'm going to observe this for the next nine months, and see what, you know, see what hits me. Because now you have a you have a leadership crisis, you come in, and people are like watching, what are you doing? What are you not doing? You know, are you going to preside over the status

• bullish assessment Frank Slootman

  What Snowflake did is is also exactly what we did at ServiceNow and at Data Domain is they started a clean sheet of paper, you know, they wanted to, you know, envision, you know, a great product and then work their way back to well, how do we how do we do this, right? So it wasn't incremental was completely non incremental.

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  I love the idea of Frank Slootman, by the way, if you heard his interview, this will make perfect sense. Sitting over there being like suck it up team. Rub some cold water on it and get back out of the field.

• mixed assessment Jason Calacanis

  One of the last tech stocks hanging on to a large multiple. They were trading at an $80 billion market cap about 67 times their 2021 revenue. As of Thursday's close, as we are recording this, they are now trading at a $68 billion market cap because apparently we hate that pathetic, shameful, appalling 80% growth.

• mixed assessment Jason Calacanis

  It's a 20% decrease in growth from the prior quarter. So if you were to project that out over a couple more quarters, 20% drop. It could slow. That could get concerning.

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  Snowflake generated $1.2 billion in revenue, which was more than double. Got it. 2020 about 106%.

• bullish assessment Jason Lemkin

  we see in the snowflakes and the data dogs and everything. I mean, we've never seen anything like this poll. This revenue didn't come out of nowhere. These startups, it's massive pull from buyers.

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  I'm so excited. I wish I was a shareholder.

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  You double your revenue or there's the door.

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  people at Snowflake are like literally taking the beach. You know, like they're just literally taking, invading other markets.

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  Slootman is coming for everybody.

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  Snowflake's next frontier of innovation is aimed at transforming how cloud applications are built, deployed, sold and transacted.

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  Snowflake trades at the largest price to sales multiple of any public SaaS company.

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  product gross profit. This is a fun one. $334.7 million up 93% year over year.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  This guy's got more net retention than El Chapo.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  When you buy Snowflake do they give you fentanyl pills with it? Why is this thing so addicting to people?

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  Evidently, net revenue retention rate of 171%. So Snowflake grew revenue 71% from the customers it already had it was like, Hey, guys, you want to give us some more money? And they did.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  80. What is that? That's good numbers for a series A company. Year over year.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  Q2 revenue 497 million dollars up 83% year over year. What? What?

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  And then snowflake is firing on all cylinders.

• bullish endorsement Brad Gerstner

  one of our biggest investments is snowflake frank sleutman general sleutman frank sleutman uh you know when we brought frank on board to lead that company you know he said prepare for war right this for him is not a a one-day mission that's not a way a way to behave for a single day or a response to something it's a way of life right that the company's duty is to be fit every day right so he was making changes three four years ago right in terms of changing culture and now let me just give you o

• bullish endorsement Geoff Yang

  when we did do you know it's invested in snowflake it was well you know this data data is going to be a really important kind of resource in the cloud and and well is that really going to be true right and and so it's it's in these things where the most fun is working with with people who have this vision and they say things with like we're going to do something that people have never been able to do

• neutral fact_claim David Friedberg

  My understanding is I have my, uh, sources here. Snowflake you're hiring for enthusiasm and energy.

• bullish assessment Frank Slootman

  our growth becomes more a function of our scale because we, you know, the type of growth that we have is not just high. It's exceptionally high given the scale that we're already, you know, operating at. You know, over time, you know, gravity will set in and you will gradually, you know, sort of, you know, given a few points a quarter, uh, to scale. And, you know, that's certainly what people have been seeing from us, but, you know, we're still sort of defying gravity in terms of the type of gro

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  It's been on a tear, growing at a pace that would make growth stocks feel slow.

• bullish endorsement Brad Gerstner

  And so Snowflake, just as a canonical example, the largest market in all of software in 2000 was databases. It was a trillion dollars of enterprise value. And it made sense because it was the primordial, it was a primal component that gave rise to all of software. And so if it was worth a trillion, if data was worth a trillion in the year 2000, what would it be worth 10 years later, when data is doubling every two to three years? So as the world was moving into the cloud, we said we want to own

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  they brought on a great ceo this incredible guy later who's frank slugman who's who's a legend and the company just went public last year i think or the year before and they're worth 82 billion dollars today um and so it really highlights the while this guy is still operating as a venture capitalist and a gp he's been able to generate incredible returns for his fund um and and build amazing businesses at the same time so i mean spicer spicer is a perfect example

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  that don't know snowflake you know it's an enterprise software company they make software so he's a venture capitalist he started this company while working as a venture capitalist

• bearish assessment Brad Gerstner

  well i think listen what makes investing hard is sometimes you have to hold simultaneous truth right and the reality is there's a lot of cognitive dissonance when you see something down 30 40 50 percent but it may be still that fair value right we were talking about last october like make no mistake about it just take snowflake as an example the move from 400 to 200 was probably just what i would describe as normalization in a world

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  And so if you were looking at a marathon runner and somebody's got a mile lead and it's mile 20, you know, maybe it's too late to catch up, but if it's mile 10, Databricks could be going whipping past a snowflake.

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  The companies are being valued at essentially the same. One of them has a third more revenue, right? 33% more revenue, 4 million versus 3 billion. So why would they be valued, snowflake a little bit less, 55 billion versus 60 billion? Why would they be valued less if they have more revenue? Well, then you look at the growth rate, one's got a 30% growth rate, one's got a 60% growth rate. That's the reason because people are looking at it. If you're a financier and you work in capital markets, you

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  fastest growing, best performing, most beloved public companies since it listed. I mean, the Slootman era is known because it was successful.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Snowflake, uh, to answer Jason's question, according to Bessemer data, they are currently, uh, their enterprise value divided by annualized revenue was 14.3 X their enterprise value divided by forward revenue is 11.7 and they have 28% growth, 67% gross margins. And their last 12 months free cashflow margin was 22%.

• bearish criticism Thomas Laffont

  Snowflake was more of a managerial-led company. Maybe that's one way to kind of interpret what happened. Maybe another is to say, if you're a public company and you need to be profitable for your shareholders, and your biggest competitor is private and can incinerate and burn a lot of money, maybe that makes a difference.

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  If you take, you use the Databricks and Snowflake example. If you look at the companies that use that software, those companies generate enormous revenues and enormous margins, and these products are in critical production workflows that underlie those revenues and profits. That is just not true with AI today.

• bearish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  snowflake in 2023 it would have taken you almost 100 years and where is it now it's been cut in half

VentureSignalScore 32.4/100 for snowflake, composed from 1 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.76 for 20% signal coverage