Sierra

No single number decides. Layers can disagree — that's the point. New to this? →

The platform's own early signals for this company — hard-to-fake, and where one preceded a real raise, the measured lead.

• TLS certificate transparency 31 signals · latest 2026-09-03
• SEC Form D — secondary demand 1 signal · latest 2026-08-10

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• bullish assessment Unattributed

  So this deal definitely did not bring a noticeable amount of revenue because we, we acquired a very young company on its way up. I'd like we, we caught them with the momentum on the way up. Just before they, they launched into the world on their own. What it has brought us, it's brought Sierra into a new market. The DLP market is a very significant market in data security. It's a market with 20 years of technology, 20 years of software, a lot of mature, mature, at least old implementations in en

• bullish prediction Jason Calacanis

  all right I think figure will be one of the top three I think Optimus will be number one figure will be in the top three four five and then you got a lot of people in China working on this stuff so yeah there'll be a lot of low cost folks in China doing this

• bearish criticism Chamath Palihapitiya

  yeah I mean that 10 hour shift is probably predicated on a human monitoring it

• bullish fact_claim David Sacks

  Brett responded just a few minutes ago actually this is the body shop production line metal parts are picked up and loaded into a fixture that then gets welded together on the other side so instead of having M&M and 8 miles standing there with the stamping machine it's going to be our figure robot and you know in his original tweet he said they're doing this in 10 hour shifts not bad

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  prices because entry price matters

• bearish prediction David Friedberg

  the investment in something like figure or something like open AI and then you put it into the mag 7 I don't think you'll see much difference in 10 years

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  the founder Brett is obviously very talented he has raised a ton of money and there have been realistic questions of how do you raise 675 million how do you raise a billion without having a product in market

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  well you've got a robot at station with doors opening and closing and something being put in front of them for them to manipulate doesn't look particularly complicated but it does look incredibly smooth and it doesn't look like the robot is tethered but it obviously is in a controlled box

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  the CEO put a new video that I'm going to show you of their robot doing the thing we all thought it was going to do repetitive work inside of the B&W factory

• mixed criticism Jason Calacanis

  I think to YC's credit Techstars they all shared their stats and they did yeah and the way they gamed it was

• neutral prediction David Friedberg

  they're going to be accepting 80% males

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  when you're accepting 1% what they're doing is they're just looking for young people without families who are developers the more developers the better which means it's naturally going to skew more mail

• bearish criticism David Friedberg

  it seems like there's a younger generation who finds them to be very establishment and I think it's because they are very established right they've been around now for 20 years so it is the establishment and there's so many people applying which means more and more people don't get accepted and their best advice to you is oh we'll wait six months and apply again it's terrible

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  The reason I won't accept it before even hearing their next idea is three developers with an exit where I assume they're three developers. They look like developers or kind of acting like developers or dressed like developers and it's always at Y Combinator they want three people. They want two to be developers. They want multiple co-founders. They don't like idea people. They don't like pitchy people. They like hackers but they're also Indian and depending on what time period YC wasn't investin

• bullish assessment David Friedberg

  It's pretty cold in space, as you know. And so you don't have the issue with having to cool down these. You won't have the same cooling issues that you have here. So that's pretty interesting combination. The combination of more efficient solar and you don't need to cool it down could be a big win. I'm not sure when this happens, but there are a number of startups with crazy visions like this and they're worth keeping an eye on.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  Well, they made their own. And yes, one of the features, the biodefense feature means it pushes air through very thick filters that can take out all those particles. It's quite nice actually.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  He's been building the HVAC systems in the cars to be super efficient. And HVAC systems like air conditioning and heat, these things have not advanced as much as they should. And he was talking about possibly building in one of the calls an HVAC system for like homes or for mobile homes, et cetera.

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  So yeah, this is probably all, we might be building out far more capacity than we need

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  What if they don't need this compute? What if it levels off the impact of compute on the product getting better? That's actually a very interesting question a lot of people are having. We've made this analogy many times before, but it feels similar to the dot-com build-out of fiber. And they built up so much fiber. And the music industry, the movie industry, wasn't allowing their content to be streamed. There was no YouTube when that was being built out. And storage was wildly expensive. Transpo

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  So plus 100 million from the last milestone, at least for now implied there's plenty of capacity needed to be built out, so.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Yes. As we record this, Jason, OpenAI is having its dev day. Thank you for everyone who tuned in to us live in contravention of sticking around with Sam. But they did announce as part of that live stream that ChatGPT now has 800 million weekly active users, Jason.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  The other side of that coin though, just thinking out loud with you as you talk about this, OpenAI is a non-traditional company in its scale and how much it's changed, I would say, the world. And it's also facing what appears to be a chronic compute drought somehow still this far into the AI cycle. So could it solve a non-traditional problem using traditional methods of raising money and so forth? Probably not. But I absolutely agree that what we're seeing here increasingly sounds circular, risk

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  But the thing I find weird is the equity components of these deals. So NVIDIA investing a ton of money and buying shares in OpenAI, and then OpenAI is obviously buying a ton from NVIDIA. That screams of round tripping, and I'm sure that they are well aware of that and have been very thoughtful about outlining that. And then you have this deal, which is, hey, we'll buy some from you and we get some warrants. That's not unheard of, but it certainly is non-traditional. It just feels like there's a

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  But I just didn't see OpenAI buying a 10% stake in AMD. I just, that was not on my bingo card, if you will.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  And their shares went up like 40% today, right? Like the market had a huge reaction.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  So I think it shows the relative power balance between NVIDIA on one side lots, and AMD on the other side less.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  As part of this deal, OpenAI gets to purchase stock in AMD at one cent per share, the par value of its stock, in tranches again. So every time it buys a bunch of GPUs, it gets to buy a bunch of their stock for one cent per share. About 10% of the company is the way this one's going to shake out.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  AMD is going to supply OpenAI with up to six gigawatts worth of GPUs.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  The AMD deal is a little bit different and it could be smaller.

1. 2028-02-05 the investment in something like figure or something like open AI and then you put it into the mag 7 I don't think you'll see much difference in 10 years · Prediction · pending
2. 2028-02-05 all right I think figure will be one of the top three I think Optimus will be number one figure will be in the top three four five and then you got a lot of people in China working on this stuff so yeah there'll be a lot of low cost folks in China doing this · Prediction · confirmed
3. 2024-10-01 series_b · $175M · Led by Greenoaks

VentureSignalScore 51/100 for sierra, composed from 2 of 4 components (index v0 cross-signal), discounted ×0.85 for 50% signal coverage