Snap

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• bullish fact_claim Robert Scoble

  look at how fast Snapchat grew

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  Facebook ripped off um Snapchat and created a competitor

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  what's great about Snapchat is that they've gotten us all to use AR and embrace it and it without ever calling it AR because they're consumer first and and I'm like behind the scenes they do want everyone to know they are the AR company they just say that publicly because if you're a 13-year-old somewhere in the midwest you don't care you just want to put a puppy face on like I want a puy thinking about what's fun so kudos to them

• neutral assessment Katie Benner

  it's an investment that has not yet panned out and Snapchat wants more people to do this because they want to present themselves as an alternative to television rather than as an alternative to Facebook

• neutral assessment Katie Benner

  it feels like a why not like okay this isn't the worst way to invest ones money because the audience is growing and we'll see a lot of television on there soon

• neutral fact_claim Katie Benner

  I think they have uh I forgot the number in my story I think it was 100 million users on Discover every month

• bullish assessment Katie Benner

  discover has grown so a year ago you could argue that very very few people looked at Discover so their growth rate and I think this is one of the things about Wall Street the growth rate is doing this it's going up and to the right very quickly even if it's off a small base

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  if the person has made this much progress and they have more resources that looks interesting and if the big competitor can't kill them that looks interesting and if it's priced reasonable maybe you take a little risk

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  there's got to be a floor for Snapchat to get bought by another company right so face offered 3 billion for it X number of years ago they would offer 7 billion now or some other person would offer 10 billion right so if you say the floor is just say the floor is 8 billion so you could lose half your money if you bought in at a $16 billion valuation if you lose half your money but you have the chance to make 10x that's a pretty good bet

• bullish prediction David Sacks

  the company is not going out of business that's for sure and he's got control of the company so I think that there is a a thesis to say this could go 10x from here

• bullish prediction David Sacks

  he might come up with 20 new ideas given all this money and resources so he might be EV Spiel might become incredibly dangerous with additional money he might go buy a camera company who knows what he's cap he could go buy GoPro

• bullish assessment David Sacks

  they can't kill them and they keep coming up with great ideas which means there is something there

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  the IPO got ahead of itself ... I think it's a 10 to 15 billion value company

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  if their next quarter does not have a decentest jump on that user growth the story of Facebook is eating their lunch will cement ... if they have a good percentage growth rate then ... they're going to be fine ... but if they don't have the growth that's the problem

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  if they say that then the comparison is GoPro which has been like a wild investment ... it was a very weird position statement ... they're not going to be a hardcore hardware company at least they shouldn't be they a software company that focuses around photography

• bullish assessment Ben Parr

  the spectacles are not supposed to be like a giant product line that makes millions of dollars they end up driving just more minutes that are created on Snapchat ... which means more advertising Revenue

• mixed assessment Liz Gannes

  I think there's Snapchat is um a difficult company um in part because it's all kind of like resting on this creative genius Evans Spiegel ... having that kind of Cults of personality around a Founder is pretty risky ... it seems like it's like a oneman show in a way that's pretty scary but I do think he has good ideas that are worth keeping around

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  the company has faced stiff competition from Facebook which not only has copied ephemeral messaging messages that disappear and that don't have a a a trace I think they did that first with poke and then they added that to Whatsapp they also copied pixel by pixel stories in Instagram

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  growth slowed at Snapchat going into this IPO that was pretty scary for people

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  I put them at a 724 million dollar run rate if you just times it by 4 which is 22 times top-line revenue I mean about 16 billion dollar valuation that's extraordinary yeah and they're losing money and they're losing maybe it should be worth 10 times top player to be 7 billion dollar company

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  their core business is being eaten away by Facebook

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  the lockout period was this week for snap right collapse what that means is if you're an employee you can now finally start to sell portions of your shares and it didn't tumble away I was impressed by that

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  it's still a 16 billion dollar company which is you know for a company with a I think they're on a run rate of a billion dollars in revenue right

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  it's been a rough summer for IPOs obviously snap and blue apron have both had a rough go of it snap is trading around 13 they missed the q2 expectations

• neutral fact_claim Chris Redlitz

  the reason we're in snap is because I invested in scan Garret G was the founder he was going to BYU the interesting story with this shows perseverance so that's the last P Garrett is the epitome of that so he came out he was a playing soccer for the University of Utah and he was raising money to do a startup so he would fly out take meetings and fly back so same day so we wouldn't miss practice he did that 28 times when he was doing raising his round and like that's a dude you want to invest in

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Okay, back to Snapchat, they had 293 million daily active users

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  You never want to bet against somebody like the founder of Snapchat, who came up with so many original ideas, he came up with ephemeral messaging, he came up with stories, he came up with snap goggles or spectacles. This is an incredible founder and incredible founders who create new ideas. He also did lenses, right? So you look at Snapchat's team, they didn't give up, they stayed really, really focused.

• bearish criticism Scott Galloway

  I've said publicly, I think investing in Snapchat is like driving drunk. I think it's something no responsible person should do. You are handing your money over to a 27 year old with no rights in the stock three classes of stock, a company that did 400 million in revenue and lost 500 million. And by the way, has the most agile company in the world spreading Snapchat like features across every property. What could go wrong? This is this company is is in my view, the most overvalued company in the

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  Snap has added $20 billion to their market cap this week after a strong Q2 earnings report. Yesterday, Snapchat reported its Q2 2021 earnings, which exceeded market analyst expectations for revenue growth. Their stock price almost quadrupled in the past year, quadrupled from $21 a share in July of 2020 to $79 a share today.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So they define a daily active user as someone who opens the app. You don't have to send a snap. You don't have to open a story. You just have to open the app.

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  You know, the thing I'm really excited about was snap. I saw Mark Pincus tweeting about snap. He's got a big position. I was thinking about putting a J trade on for snap.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  But Google actually looked at buying snap around the IPO.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  They don't have the investment to really compete on hardware. So I think they'll link up with someone they're very tight with Google.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  So I do think I do think snaps a kind of dark horse here to watch.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  I mean, snap is doing something interesting. We haven't talked about them on the software side. I could see them teaming up with Google, doing something really interesting with social AR, their lenses are getting used a lot.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  I can completely see this being a gigantic hit for all those like annoying beach influencers

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  snap said it's the social network that evidently all the kids actually are using

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  honestly this as like a content creation tool is fantastic

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  this thing is awesome and it is perfectly in line with snaps aesthetic

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  snap shares as of this moment, I believe, uh, are down over 40% today. This is a one day drop on negative guidance that the company issued after hours yesterday, CEO Evan Spiegel, uh, warned in a note to employees that I guess must've been leaked. I don't even know if this was like a deliberate release on snaps part, uh, but warned in a note to employees that the company will miss its target for revenue and adjusted earnings for Q2. He wrote today, we filed an eight K. Okay. So they did file an

• bearish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  gonna break down snap dropping over 40% in a day 45%. In fact, wow, crazy CEO Evan Spiegel sent an internal memo letting the team know snap was gonna miss its earning estimates.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  the ad warning from snap is my question mark for each of these companies. What will show up in that revenue line item. And then of course, Molly, we're going to learn enterprise software health for Microsoft cloud health from Amazon, you know, general search traffic from Google and we'll get lots of other kinds of like details, but there is an ad theme to this entire week's earnings and snap really did set the tone for it.

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  they've had a conviction since before they were in public and they've had this belief that they were right and they've been kind of right and kind of wrong and they've stuck to it and points for that.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  given the fact that its stock price went from like 1650 a share to 10 or nine in the course of a week, which again, even for Snapchat is pretty Snapchatty.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  The cannon is entitled prior obligations.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  No, I mean, this is stare, they're staring down the barrel of a cannon.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  So my question about this is, if the share price is lower than the conversion price, I presume there are provisions to make whole at the equivalent dollar amount, right? So do they get twice as many shares if the debt's priced at 22 and the stock's at 11? Because if so, the dilution is going to be absolutely punishing. And that may be why snap in their latest earnings discussed a $500 million share buyback to reduce the impact of dilution. Right. But that's not going to make a dent.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I understand why the debt is a worrisome thing. But frankly, from a business perspective, I'm really glad they raised it back then instead of now, because it would be much more expensive today.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  Well, the debt thing is very interesting, because people forget about that. But if I recall the terms of that debt, it was actually pretty favorable to the company,

• bearish assessment Jason Calacanis

  some important information someone just told me snap also has $4.2 billion in debt. Yep. So adjusted cash is more like 500 to 700 million. That does change everything, I think.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  I actually also really appreciate the fact that Snap has tried to be like a good actor in the social media universe, right? It is sort of said, we don't want to sell a bunch of user data, which I'm sure has not helped it with selling more ads, unfortunately, and has tried to create a product that is, you know, arguably not destructive.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  Snaps user growth did miss expectations. So that was critical. They missed on profit, they missed on revenue and they missed on user growth, didn't forecast and said they were flat. And that, I mean, like we talk about a top and bottom line beat, that's a five way miss, essentially, which is about as bad as you can bring home as an earnings report goes. I feel for them, you know, they're trying to do something different. They're trying to bring that LA vibe to tech. They're still working on hard

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  But critically though, it's bigger than Twitter.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  347 million daily active users up 18% year over year.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  In the conversation of what's driving culture and therefore what's relevant to advertisers, it's TikTok over Snap 101.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  Snap though has kind of stuck true to its guns, even as TikTok has taken off. And to their credit, they have, oh, this is from memory, like 342 million MAUs. So a big chunk of people out there. They're big, but I think you're right.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  I think it is that growth number that you point to that suggests that it is not at all advertising. It is in fact that Snap, if you were able to use COVID headwinds to grow by 116% in Q2 of last year, and there it is 116% growth that then just falls all the way to 13%. Like you didn't pick up a single other person effectively, you know, over an entire year, nobody else jumped on this bandwagon because they all went to TikTok, then the problem might not be ads at all.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  It's kind of a mess. And I want to say it says a lot about the ad market in general, Molly, but I'm not sure it does. I think it says more about snap's position in the ad market than it does about the ad market itself.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  But then when you say looking forward, we're so unclear on what's going on in our business and the economy that we're not going to provide guidance. And that, I mean, like we talk about a top and bottom line beat, that's a five way miss, essentially, which is about as bad as you can bring home as an earnings report goes.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  if you go from growing a hundred percent a year to growing 13% investors are going to be very unhappy.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Q2 was okay. The revenue was actually up 13% year over year, a billion dollars in revenue for Q2. Slowing revenue growth was an issue

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  snap really had a moment in the last, you know, 12, 18 months, their value appreciated their growth kicked back up. They reached, uh, you know, gap net income. They had positive free cash flow for a bit. The company was really kind of back on the up and up and investors really warm to that. And then I think as we've seen the correction kind of came in late 21, early 2022 and things have changed.

• bullish endorsement Jules

  i partner with descript so overdub is their feature and this whole thing about like utilizing ai voices isn't new to me like because descript has that you can have an overdub of your voice that's ai generated and if you forget to say a few sentences or whatever you can just type it in and have your voice say that and of course there's consent there as well

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  it has been downloaded 53 million times it boasts as many as 20 million daily active users so it's had two and a half times growth since july of 2022

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  the financial times has reported that they've considered a subscription-based model

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  be real has yet to generate any revenue that we know of

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  be real ... raised a 60 million dollar series b at a 600 million dollar valuation sources familiar with the deal have stated that yuri milner's dst global will lead the round

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  the company also noted that it was focusing on expanding its revenue growth and has been investing heavily in ar with tools like custom landmarks for house of the dragon snapchat times vogue world in new york and adding lense

• mixed prediction Jason Calacanis

  snap is in the middle of a bit of a turnaround so they said they would cut 20 of staff last month as part of a major restructuring so we're hoping for their sake that it could be a little more profitable toward the middle of next year with just about you know 20 less overhead

• mixed assessment Jason Calacanis

  q3 cash and short-term securities total about 4.4 billion dollars so the cash situation is not a disaster q3 net loss was about 360 million dollars though that's a five times larger loss year over year snap's stock-based compensation in q3 was 343 million dollars that actually represents a majority of that net loss so just to be clear that was mostly a compensation issue q3 free cash flow was only about 18 million dollars that's actually about breakeven on a free cash flow basis which is not ter

• bearish assessment Jason Calacanis

  in a prior earnings report snap noted that apple's app tracking transparency features were a huge problem for its business this is of course the thing that also wiped about 25 billion dollars off the combined market caps of google and facebook and you can imagine that snap didn't have as big a cushion as those two companies these new privacy features make it harder for platforms to target users as accurately as they were before that means digital ads are less effective which means advertisers pa

• bearish assessment Jason Calacanis

  inflation and the kind of general market downturn and the thing we've seen where lots of stocks are losing a lot of value as we come out of this covered period those are not the only things impacting snap oh no many many headwinds for this company

• bearish assessment Jason Calacanis

  snaps market cap unlike some other companies is completely correlated has traded basically in lockstep with its year over year revenue growth over the past five years or so this is one of the very few cases where uh investors are saying we have no faith right there's no sort of divergence in price to earnings ratio there's no divergence from reality when it comes to snap whatever its revenue growth is that's where investors follow it

• bearish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  revenue was 1.1 billion dollars in the quarter up just six percent year over year six percent year over year growth is the slowest growth that snapchat has had in its entire time as a public company

• bearish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  snap is down about 90 percent over the past 52 weeks

• bearish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  snaps stock is down 30 percent today after another disappointing earnings report

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  year over year so slightly better on a percentage basis yeah uh and they lost 288 million 375 million dollars so they're up 17 year over year so snaps growing not revenue but the number of users and they have that paid version for four bucks a month you can get some premium snap features and they got 2 million people paying for that so yeah that to me is the most fascinating what you know half a percentage point 50 basis points of the users are now paying i wonder if that can get to five percent

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  and if you look at snaps earnings they were flat

• bearish criticism Chamath Palihapitiya

  terrible because what they said was our e right our earnings right are not modeled accurately right and so that's the risk that you now have to take to every company

• bearish criticism Chamath Palihapitiya

  but these are disastrous calls you know facebook's had a couple in its lifetime but snap consistently probably once every 18 months will do this anyways the thing just completely implodes the stock implodes by 48 or something and then it you know rolls over to companies like facebook and google who then are off eight or ten percent

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  snap i mean just completely blew themselves 46 down intraday yesterday

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  operating cash flow was 165 million for snap for the quarter. So their operations generated 165 million of profit. But for the entire year, because they lost money in the quarters prior, they generated free cash flow of only $35 million. So the business net produced $35 million of incremental cash

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  Zuckerberg did a 20% cut last year. He got serious. He got lean and fit. And instead, these guys held out, did nothing. Then when they know that the market's going to crush them, they put out this lame announcement 10%. No, not 10%. Really, if you just want to get back to where you were two years ago in terms of operating expense, you need a 25% reduction.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  they knew, right? They knew they had a problem. So they released the press release saying, oh, we're going to cut. Well, you should have done what Zuckerberg did.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  they were the last ones to get the memo and just finish the point. So you saw that a few days ahead of this quarterly announcement where their stock got crushed, they put out a press release saying they're going to cut their headcount 10%. It's too little too late.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  They seem like they're the last ones to get the memo.

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  The reason why Snap is doing poorly is not because its revenue has deteriorated. So I looked up, or let's put it this way, I asked ChatGPT for their key metrics. So assuming GPT is not hallucinating, if you compare 2021 to 2023, their total revenue went up from 4.1 to 4.5 billion and gross profit went from call it 2.4 to 2.5 billion. So not a huge increase, but revenue and gross profit were slightly up. But if you look at operating expenses, they went from 3 billion to 4 billion a year. And that

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  Snap is more egregious. The difference is that Zuckerberg is listening and Spiegel is not.

• bearish criticism Chamath Palihapitiya

  Well, I mean, I think I said it before. I think that case studies have been written about how tilted the governance is in Snap. I think the point is that they basically have infinite to zero voting power over common shareholders. So there's no real feedback loop.

1. 2028-03-20 he might come up with 20 new ideas given all this money and resources so he might be EV Spiel might become incredibly dangerous with additional money he might go buy a camera company who knows what he's cap he could go buy GoPro · Prediction · confirmed
2. 2028-03-20 the company is not going out of business that's for sure and he's got control of the company so I think that there is a a thesis to say this could go 10x from here · Prediction · confirmed

VentureSignalScore 51/100 for snap, composed from 2 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.85 for 50% signal coverage