Circle

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The platform's own early signals for this company — hard-to-fake, and where one preceded a real raise, the measured lead.

• TLS certificate transparency 8 signals · latest 2024-10-11
• Federal contract awards 1 signal · latest 2018-04-27

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• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  what that chart says at a minimum is that through a particular prison that visa prefers activity is going up quite a lot for usdc

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  that to me shows a lot of actual usage of usdc this is a chart just comparing the two and it goes up to the right

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  like it's been a minute man nearly half a year like market wants inventory so i think it'll do quite well

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  i'm stoked about this but uh this is a startup show where are they going to go out i'm waiting i'm trying to i'm trying to manifest so they filed but they haven't yeah they filed privately in january

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  i think i'm counting down to this one more than databricks more than stripe

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  i'm very curious what this s1 is going to show us

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  no no fees there's a lot of cool stuff this is why i'm excited about this this ipo i will i will say

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  but one company that is going public is circle jason i cannot tell you how excited about this

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I think any good actors or anybody who's long crypto is going to want to get rid of the tethers and get rid of the Bitfinex and these other, you know, Binance is people who are operating in the in the shadows in like a dark way, people are going to want those out of the system. And they don't want to have more coin bases and circles and public companies and regulations, so that this whole space can be a little more stable.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  My my bet is that tether is their mix of and their auditing is not going to be enough to operate in the United States for much longer and or other jurisdictions. And I think USDC is going to overtake tether very quickly, I think that'll happen in under a year or two.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  The people who have the stable coins, they don't get that tether and you and circle get those, which means if you have 60 billion and you're making one or 2% a year, do you get 600 billion or 1.2 billion that you get to make? In other words, the float, that's a pretty great business. Is that how they make money? Is that is that the business here?

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  I think circle obviously did that seeing all the FUD, fear, uncertainty and doubt associated with that move by tether and we'll find out over time,

• bearish fact_claim Unattributed

  our government considers stable coins as a potential risk to users, citizens of the United States, the financial system itself, and wait for it, the national security of the United States of America. People do not put out a press release like

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  But circle is going public this year. And they did this right as the US Treasury is increasing their focus on stable coins. So the regulatory environment for stable coins is getting more intense.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  And circle obviously has USDC a stable coin. If you don't order stable coin is, you can look that up. But basically, it's a cryptocurrency that is pegged to another currency like a fiat like in this case, the US dollar one for one.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  And now he's doing circle they did an attestation and attestation is some kind of report that's not exactly like an audit. But it's more than just a review. Some auditor looks and make sure that what you're saying about your assets is in your bank account.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  hey jeremy if you want to be baller and you want to dunk on these guys uh why don't you just share what your commercial paper is show us your commercial paper what a great move that would be by you you've already got these guys on the ropes because you you've got them what 20x on cash cash right they have three percent you have 60 so you're already dunking on them that way why not start turning over your commercial paper give us the breakdown of where it is by region who does your buying of comm

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  only nine percent of circle is in commercial paper nine percent uh versus 40 percent of tether that's pretty crazy when you think about that disparity and then circle is 60 cash and cash equivalents and tether was three percent

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  jeremy allaire who is going public with circle which has usdc and 60 of it is cash or cash equivalents it looks like he's um really moving uh quickly to be the anti-tether

• bearish criticism Do Kwon

  For USDC, it's very easy for the US government to shut down USDC, by threatening the bank balance and then telling Circle to freeze certain accounts or reverse transactions, which they've done before historically.

• bearish criticism Do Kwon

  for tether and USDC, for every dollar stable coin that's issued, you keep a dollar's worth of balance in a bank account. And it turns out, especially with the heightened regulatory attention that's coming to stable coins, that those bank balances could easily be censored, or, you know, simply, you know, stolen away from the issue or some other third party.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  I think circle is that 26 billion and tether was at 63 billion last I checked.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  So while USDC circles, a stable coin is going to be a public company, and it's in the United States, and it's being audited by US auditors, or it's being they have attestations from US auditors.

• neutral fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  somebody I've known for 20 years, Jeremy Allaire from circle started his own stable coin.

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  i think what circle is doing here is they are really going to regulators and saying we know you're going to have um strong regulation in this space we would like to regulate ourselves we would like to go beyond what you're doing and then put that directly as a counter example to tether and imagine if tether gets banned imagine if tether uh faces a doj uh investigation and it actually all comes public and they're guilty of three or four more things which i think is possible if not probable if tha

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  it feels like the opposite of the tether team where jeremy is like out and has been around for a long time

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  pretty smart cat obviously and i think super upstanding guy

• bullish endorsement Chamath Palihapitiya

  can lead to not just a radically more efficient but also a safer more resilient financial system

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  he is going above and beyond what tether is doing and let's face it there's no way tether would clear uh the ability to operate a bank with the federal reserve u.s treasury occ and fdic after getting banned uh from working with customers in new york that's just off the table

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  circle and jeremy allaire are using transparency and safety as a selling point

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  the recent circle news is great for transparency

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  i think you'll see those positions reverse pretty quickly uh maybe within a year or so

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  i do think tether is kind of plateauing that's anything pretty clear to everybody and i think circle is surging

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  circle's getting ahead of this

• bullish assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  all usdc is doing here is taking tether's original promise and fulfilling it

• bullish fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  circle is moving their reserves to be a hundred percent backed by cash and short duration us treasuries boom they want to become a federally chartered bank

• bullish prediction Chamath Palihapitiya

  The stable coin circle is cleaning up their reserves to move to a perfect dollar for dollar representation of their stable coin, unlike tether. And this is a major move for circle. And I think it's going to have a profound impact on cryptocurrency and tether.

• bullish prediction Jeremy Allaire

  It just seems inevitable over the coming decades that there'll be like, because of the internet, because of digital currency, because of the proliferation of this technology, it's likely that there will be fewer major international currencies.

• bullish prediction Jeremy Allaire

  I think increasingly over the next decade, people everywhere will be able to vote with their smartphones what economic system they want to participate in. And that is going to create complex issues, but I do think that that is a path that will emerge.

• bullish assessment Jeremy Allaire

  Stable coins are like OTT money... more and more countries are actually putting stable coin laws on the books and they're figuring out like, okay, well, here's how a foreign issued stable coin, like USDC is going to be allowed to work in our country.

• neutral fact_claim Jeremy Allaire

  You don't see us going to China, trying to drive USDC. We can't do that. It's not, that would be funny, but it wouldn't work.

• mixed assessment Jeremy Allaire

  we're still super early days when you think about how, how large this phenomenon can be. Um, because we're, we're still, we're kind of like in the crossing the chasm metaphor, Jeffrey Moore's kind of thing. We're, I think we're kind of like midair trying to leap over the chasm right now. We're not, we have not crossed. We have not crossed the chasm. Things could still go bad and we could plummet. Um, but, um, but I think, I think we're gonna make the lead.

• bullish prediction Jeremy Allaire

  by the end of 2025, we, we believe that like stable coins will be a legal integrated part of the financial system, like pretty much really broadly.

• bullish assessment Jeremy Allaire

  stable coin networks like USDC are network effect businesses. They are, they are platforms that people build on meaning developers build apps to integrate to the protocol and the more apps that are integrated, the more utility the network has, the more people who have the digital asset, uh, the, the more utility the network has.

• bullish assessment Jeremy Allaire

  Now EURC is new, it's growing, uh, but it's, you know, we're, we're not at the stage where we have that sort of same exact structure as USDC, but we're optimistic about the, the potential for, for Euro stable coin. And, and, um, and, and of course we'll evolve to ensure, obviously it has to be legally compliant.

• bullish fact_claim Jeremy Allaire

  And so July 1st, we announced that we were the first global stable coin issuer to have both a dollar stable coin USDC and a Euro stable coin EURC legal electronic money in the European union and issued and made available in the European union itself. So it's both dollars and Euros that are under that regime. We're the only major company and global player with a dollar stable coin that is actually legally compliant now there.

• bullish endorsement Jeremy Allaire

  the way we've designed USDC is sort of, you know, getting as close as we possibly can to like government obligation money. Um, and, you know, kind of this fully reserved. So people who hold are like, wow, okay, this isn't as risky as a bank deposit. This is like, you know, T bills and like, and, and basically, you know, cash that's held with the safest custodians in the world.

• bullish assessment Jeremy Allaire

  And now we've done it. Like, it's here, and it's happening. And as you introduced, right, it's sort of killer app of crypto, and it's really starting to take off.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  First up is Circle. This is the company that is behind the USDC stablecoin. You actually might recall we had the CEO Jeremy Allaire on the show not too long ago. That was episode 2004, if you're curious. Circle has raised over a billion dollars. It nearly went out twice with a SPAC, ended up not doing that, raising more capital, and now it is looking to go out in a traditional IPO. Why do we care about a crypto company in 2024? Well, as it turns out, stablecoins are today the killer crypto use c

• mixed prediction Unattributed

  i do think though that as circle tries to go public it's probably not going to be working on new ways to give away 80 percent of its revenue but if i was someone who wanted to take down signal and tether sorry circle and tether my bad uh then i think that would be a great way to go about it i i will say it's going to be one hell of an ipo let's go isn't

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  circle is now going to work with jp morgan chase and city on its long expected ipo thank god timing not entirely clear right now but circle and i'm going to quote here quote aims to publicly file paperwork for the offering in late april

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  That's literally what stable coins are. They're a bank.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  If you strip out the amount of money that they're paying to Coinbase and so forth and just get down to their kind of like adjusted revenue, it's like a 6.7 X run rate multiple for today, which I think is pretty reasonable for what is effectively a bank.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  How tied Coinbase and Circle are. And the terms of their agreement are that if stable, if the USDC, the chief stable coin from Circle, which is pegged to the US dollar. If those exist over on Coinbase's platform, Coinbase essentially gets the money... It's the vast majority of it. So that ends up with a big chunk of the gross reserve income that Circle generates from holding the backing currencies and bonds that backed the stable coin going somewhere else.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Their quote, reserve income, which is their interest based payments from holding treasuries and so forth, is the vast majority of their revenue.

• neutral assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  Gross revenue, which is the interest generated on the holdings of the stable coins.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  We now kind of know when Circle is going to go public. It's going to be, I think it's June 4th, followed by a June 5th debut. And also we have some pricing information. We now know what Circle may be worth when it does list. They have put a 24 to $26 per share target on their IPO. Jason, which at the midpoint gives them a valuation of about $6.2 billion on a fully diluted basis.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  once they're public they will drop numbers every single quarter for us to dig into yeah which is great it's exciting

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  i think we're going to see these become kind of a de facto way of companies handling some of their own internal accounting and movements of money and i think it's going to open up doors for people in other countries to access services they wouldn't be able to otherwise

• neutral assessment Unattributed

  that as we watch this fintech company list it's a nice early indicator that at least some people care

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  circle is the company behind the usdc stablecoin a private market startup that uh almost been public lawn via a spac years ago and it's now making a real run at the public markets the latest as we wait for it to price later today is that it's 25 times over subscribed and i think that is probably indicative of some positive sentiment around it

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  right after we saw Circle do so well. Clearly, they were watching this and hoping that it was going to go well to push the button.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  currently Jerome Powell over at the Fed by not cutting rates is really throwing a huge bone over to Jeremy Allaire and Circle.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  The problem with stable coins or the thing to be aware of is they are dependent on the return rate of treasuries, of bonds, of whatever devices they're putting that money in, very predictable 4% or 5%.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  So you're giving them credit for six years worth of, you know, revenue coming in, but they split it with some of the markets where they're at. So maybe it's really like net two or three points. So you're giving them, in that case, if it was net two, you're giving them like 10 years or 20 years of revenue credit. Oh yeah, that does seem extremely high. Obviously it's overvalued right now.

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  which means that they're valued at about 0.3 stable coin AUM as a ratio. And that seems a little high.

• neutral fact_claim Alex Wilhelm

  they have about 61 billion in circulating USDC stable coins. And their market cap is now about 20 billion

• bearish criticism Alex Wilhelm

  if you were an investor in this company and it listed at $31, how peeved would you be that it didn't price higher?

• bullish endorsement Alex Wilhelm

  Bullish for IPOs, bullish for stable coins, bullish for crypto. Seems like a big win

• bullish assessment Alex Wilhelm

  I am blown away by the results. For folks who don't recall, it was initially looking at a $24 to $26 per share range, Jason. That got bumped up to $27, $28, went out at $31 and then it opened at $69, closed yesterday at $83 per share and then today it closed at $107.70.

• bullish assessment Jason Calacanis

  Circle was going to go out via SPAC two years ago, three years ago. They chose not to, I think because of the regulatory environment.

• mixed criticism Jason Calacanis

  So if they raised $1 billion, they could have raised roughly three times that, four times that almost, if they had priced at $100 a share. Now, it's hard to know that that was going to happen, but with 25x the demand for the shares, you did know that this was going to really ramp up and this is where having an auction for shares or a direct listing of a small number of shares without raising money is a better option.

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  Jeremy Allaire is an incredible entrepreneur. He builds real businesses. I've known him through three different businesses, Bright, Cove, et cetera. And he's just been one of these incredible entrepreneurs with a long track record.

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  i think ultimately that product and all these sas products that aren't at 500 million are going to be you know either becoming acquirers of other companies or they're going to be acquired and we're going to see a lot of roll-ups

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  and they're growing uh 50 million in revenue times 10 times 8 is 400 million 500 million 600 million you could probably uh get a good deal

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  that they could easily raise money again if they're at 50 million and they're profitable

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  circle could raise money probably easily depending on what the valuation was when they did their peak zerp if they did a peak zerp type round

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  USDC, Jeremy Allaire's competitor from Circle just said that he would switch to 100% to what you're saying, cash, cash equivalents.

• neutral fact_claim Matt Ballensweig

  Yeah, so tether's tether obviously is larger from market cap perspective. And we do we do use tether as well, I think a lot of our counterparties overseas, you know,

• bullish endorsement Matt Ballensweig

  Yeah, so we we are definitely big users of USDC. We, you know, we have the on off ramps with circle and Coinbase to go in and out of dollars and USDC at one to one basically at any time. And it's a great way to basically, you know, be able to lend out dollars, but on, you know, on the blockchain, right, as an ERC 20 token to counterparties that can seamlessly use that to go in and out of, you know, positions, whether it's BTC, either other crypto. So we're super active in USDC, it's definitely o

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  USDC comes out and it seems like it's a lot cleaner. And you decide at some point, you know what, we're not going to have any commercial paper. We're only going to have assets in there dollar for dollar.

• bullish prediction Jeremy Allaire

  But equity is a non fungible token, there's a fixed number of shares, you can have share in the share register, you've got zero or whatever share one through share whatever, and they're non fungible tokens. And you can imagine a representation of equity as a non fungible token. And you can imagine an equity holder that's got proof of their ownership in an NFT in their digital wallet that can provide them other perks, other ways to interact with a brand to interact with a startup to be a stakehol

• bullish assessment Jeremy Allaire

  USDC, very clearly cryptographic dollars, and we can come back to talk more about that, but really with this goal of establishing a protocol layer for seamless, inexpensive, instant global, you know, value exchange with dollars and eventually other fiat currencies as well. But then, you know, building around it are these other things, which is what if I'm a business that wants to store it, and I want to connect existing financial networks to it and take traditional payment instruments, but have

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  I think tether is going to get absolutely run over by USDC.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  As I predicted, I think USDC is going to become the winner in the stable coin business. And that tether, as we've seen with their fines, they now have another second bigger fine that they've gotten from the government here in the United States.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  seed invest being owned by circle now all of those platforms are spending tons of money on regulations legal accounting in order to be compliant

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  uh yeah so i think there's like the subset of ones that are like sometimes called bank coins right like circle paxos tether where the funds are held in financial institutions at least for the ones that aren't tether the funds are held in financial institutions and like they act kind of like a pseudo month tokenized money market fund

• bullish fact_claim Bennett Tomlin

  the more reputable ones being like usdc run by circle or uh binance dollar or paxos dollar which are both run by paxos both which have done a much better job than tether of making sure they had adequate reserves and avoiding the ire of the law

• bullish endorsement Jason Calacanis

  we have usdc by circle um which is really like a you know jeremy hilarious company an american company with a lot of regulation planning on going public and they seem to have done i i would think we would agree that they've done the most in terms of making sure the one-to-one exists there's a dollar in a bank account somewhere to the dollar that the the token is worth

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  Coinbase, uh, circle, the companies that are, that took preemptive regulation and regulated themselves and maybe over-regulated themselves. And we're, you know, maybe, sort of judicious on who they listed as a coin and really were thoughtful. Those people are now going to be the ones who benefit.

• mixed assessment Chamath Palihapitiya

  i don't think circle is part of that and circle is one of the the good actors but even the good actors need to make every edge case very clear

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  now circle separately features a yield program which offers guaranteed returns these were never as high as terrorists preposterous and obviously ponzoid 20 returns but the program exists nonetheless at one time offering 12 month yields as high as 10.75 so in the time it's taken to write this piece the guaranteed return has dropped from six percent to one percent to point oh five percent in characteristic fashion circle's webpage on the subject contains both the incorrect statement circle yields

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  so here's what he said on the reserve circle discloses where some of its reserves are but not all and not how much of what is where okay that sounds like a dr seuss riddle

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  but yeah it's a good read i have to be honest like he seems to be going all over the place and banging on every single aspect which i think is good i love that matthew exists right because he's basically like this crazy stress test on these companies

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  and then when you say it's a hundred percent back yes it could be backed but what is it backed by you know if tether was backed by chinese commercial paper okay that's backed you know i could be backed by pokemon cards i could be backed by born apes i could be backed by gold bullion i could be backed by you know real estate in miami there's all different things that something could be backed by and that's where regulation transparency has to come to the space especially since people are pitching

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  right right okay it's a secure wallet it's you know secured to me secured could mean it's secured by the fdic it's secured by some insurance or it's secured because we have two-factor authentication you know like or we we don't allow you to create you know easily hackable passwords which secure are we talking about here

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  this is where regulation would be really helpful because what's happening is you have a company a corporate structure um that could get sued could go bankrupt then you have the creation of this new currency and people who are buying that currency are being told it's a stable coin it's you know completely uh backed it's a hundred percent backed and that it's secure okay so those words are those actually legal concepts or are those marketing concepts

• bearish criticism Jason Calacanis

  you know basically what tayubi writes is the big tell always is when financial executives start giving what one analyst described to me as nuanced answers to yes and no questions and so when he started to say okay are people protected then all of a sudden it's like well it's not a trust but we hold the funds in the trust and usdc is and is not simultaneously a virtual currency this is all from his piece and and in the unlikely event of a bankruptcy usdc holders would be shielded from circle cred

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  there's uh this kind of large question about how also the new fund that it raised which is 400 million dollars by the way this reserve fund would be permitted to invest up to one-third of its total assets in reverse repurchase agreements i don't even know what that is but it sounds kind of bad

• bearish criticism David Friedberg

  and so that is the question where i think there needs to be super transparency and so and perhaps where they started is not where they are now right i think that's partly what happens is where you start

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  this is not like this is not circle and usdc are not a ponzi scheme this is not a big scam but there are starting to be these uh machination these manipulations that are unusual to say the least

• bearish criticism Jason Calacanis

  that you were just saying it's a black box you can't get information

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Circle creators of the USDC stable coin has canceled its SPAC with Concord Acquisition Group and said that it did not complete SEC qualification in time. Circle announced its SPAC merger back in July 2021, which was 16 months ago.

• bearish criticism Vinny Lingham

  So whether it's circle and, and what they're holding it in, are they holding in US dollars? Is it short-term treasuries? Is it long-term treasuries? Um, what happens to those bonds drop? Like how much liquidity can they provide? Now it's basically acting as a bank.

• neutral fact_claim Sunny Madra

  in the case of, you know, USDC and circle, they publish sort of their holdings and they make it very clear.

• neutral prediction Vinny Lingham

  And, and Coinbase has made it very clear that they're going to go and fight in court. And I think others will do the same. Circle will do the same, etc.

• bullish endorsement Logan Allen

  we're big fans of stable coin big fans of jeremy alair's and think there's a lot to come in terms of treasury money movement yield and so forth in that world

• bullish fact_claim Logan Allen

  you've got more clarity on the legal framework right that was a big catalyst for the stock

• bullish assessment Logan Allen

  we think stable coins are the way money will move digitally ... we view that as as having played out but still early innings

1. 2028-02-16 by the end of 2025, we, we believe that like stable coins will be a legal integrated part of the financial system, like pretty much really broadly. · Prediction · pending
2. 2028-02-16 I think increasingly over the next decade, people everywhere will be able to vote with their smartphones what economic system they want to participate in. And that is going to create complex issues, but I do think that that is a path that will emerge. · Prediction · pending
3. 2028-02-16 It just seems inevitable over the coming decades that there'll be like, because of the internet, because of digital currency, because of the proliferation of this technology, it's likely that there will be fewer major international currencies. · Prediction · pending
4. 2028-02-16 The stable coin circle is cleaning up their reserves to move to a perfect dollar for dollar representation of their stable coin, unlike tether. And this is a major move for circle. And I think it's going to have a profound impact on cryptocurrency and tether. · Prediction · pending
5. 2028-02-12 But equity is a non fungible token, there's a fixed number of shares, you can have share in the share register, you've got zero or whatever share one through share whatever, and they're non fungible tokens. And you can imagine a representation of equity as a non fungible token. And you can imagine an equity holder that's got proof of their ownership in an NFT in their digital wallet that can provide them other perks, other ways to interact with a brand to interact with a startup to be a stakehol · Prediction · pending

VentureSignalScore 43.2/100 for circle, composed from 2 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.85 for 50% signal coverage