AMD

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• bearish assessment Unattributed

  So when I look at that, that's really just a tax on chip manufacturers and on the end buyers, right? So that would be a tax on the NVIDIAs and AMDs and others. And it would be a tax on Meta and Amazon and all the folks that would have to pay that tax, which likely means that you get less chips purchased and less AI research, right?

• bullish prediction Brad Gerstner

  I think it was a good day for American businesses. This is going to be in a ton of business for companies like NVIDIA, companies like AMD, folks who are suppliers to those companies.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  in the case of AMD, they're going to have to deliver a workable chip, or you're not going to build six gigs worth, right?

• bearish assessment Brannin McBee

  I think we're in NVIDIA world for a while, right? You know, you have AMD out there, but AMD doesn't have a performant training fabric, right? Like that's something that's proprietary with an NVIDIA is in fit and band, right? So you can build this, a comparatively performant training fabric with AMD infrastructure, right? So you can kind of only use it then for inference and it's sort of, well, if you've, if you've already trained your model on NVIDIA, it's, it's a tough leap to want to move your

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  SPEAKER_14: the body shop production line metal parts are picked up and loaded into a fixture that then gets welded together on the other side so instead of having M&M SPEAKER_55: and 8 SPEAKER_14: miles standing there with the stamping machine it's going to be our figure robot and you know in his original tweet he said they're doing this in 10 SPEAKER_116: hour shifts SPEAKER_14: not bad

• bearish assessment Unattributed

  no no yeah so at these high prices because entry price matters

• bearish prediction David Friedberg

  the investment in something like figure or something like open AI and then you put it into the mag 7 I don't think you'll see much difference in 10 years

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  the founder Brett is obviously very talented he has raised a ton of money and there have been realistic questions of how do you raise 675 million how do you raise a billion without having a product in market

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  you've got a robot at station with doors opening and closing and something being put in front of them for them to manipulate doesn't look particularly complicated but it does look incredibly smooth and it doesn't look like the robot is tethered but it obviously is in a controlled box

• mixed criticism David Friedberg

  it seems like there's a younger generation who finds them to be very establishment and I think it's because they are very established right they've been around now for 20 years so it is the establishment and there's so many people applying which means more and more people don't get accepted and their best advice to you is oh we'll wait six months and apply again it's terrible

• bearish assessment David Friedberg

  No reject it's social no.

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  So in 2018 SaaS was hot and sales and CRM stuff pretty hot. This seems like a small idea.

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  The reason I won't accept it before even hearing their next idea is three developers with an exit where I assume they're three developers. They look like developers or kind of acting like developers or dressed like developers and it's always at Y Combinator they want three people. They want two to be developers. They want multiple co-founders. They don't like idea people. They don't like pitchy people. But they're also Indian and depending on what time period YC wasn't investing in India all tha

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  there's two markets for this type of work. One is you're dead on getting data to and from the earth, processing in space and sending back down the results. But he also mentioned the CEO of StarCloud that there's a market in orbit for compute, which you can do via lasers between different satellites.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  They think that the biggest risk to this working is launch costs. So essentially, this company is a bet that SpaceX's Starship is going to not only get sorted out, but do lots and lots of trips up and down

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  they were working on doing space-based power. And then they discovered that they were going to lose 95% of that power they generated in space, beaming the power down via microwaves to the earth. So they thought, well, all right, we're going to have power up in space. Let's put the data centers up there.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  one of the coolest companies that I've heard of is a company that wants to put data centers, not in the ocean, not on land, but up in orbit.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  Yeah, just efficient HVACs. What they found was the HVACs and ICE cars were never optimized because you just burn more gas. Who cares? You know, gas industrial complex wants you to burn gas. Why make it more efficiency? When you have a battery and you're trying to get miles and there's mile range anxiety, you look at every part of the car and you optimize. And the most inefficient part of the car, aside from the drag caused by air, is the HVAC system. Yeah. And that's why they would say like, oh

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  It could also be something to do with HVAC. He's been building the HVAC systems in the cars to be super efficient. And HVAC systems like air conditioning and heat, these things have not advanced as much as they should. And he was talking about possibly building in one of the calls an HVAC system for like homes or for mobile homes, et cetera.

• neutral prediction Unattributed

  So I think this could be the downward drift fan for the new Roadster 2.0.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  And it's super late on Elon time. You know, he's frequently late, as I always tell people, frequently late, but never wrong. He always gets it done in the end and, you know, typically does it in such extraordinary fashion that your mind is blown.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  The Roadster 2 is, I believe, coming this year or in another seven. This is like the vanity project of all vanity projects.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  Yes. As we record this, Jason, OpenAI is having its dev day. Thank you for everyone who tuned in to us live in contravention of sticking around with Sam. But they did announce as part of that live stream that ChatGPT now has 800 million weekly active users, Jason.

• bullish prediction David Friedberg

  Or maybe superintelligence, you know, takes off and we have so many jobs to run to cure cancer,

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  So yeah, this is probably all, we might be building out far more capacity than we need

• bearish prediction Unattributed

  they don't need this compute? What if it levels off the impact of compute on the product getting better? That's actually a very interesting question a lot of people are having. We've made this analogy many times before, but it feels similar to the dot-com build-out of fiber. And they built up so much fiber. And the music industry, the movie industry, wasn't allowing their content to be streamed. There was no YouTube when that was being built out. And storage was wildly expensive. Transport of vi

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  The other side of that coin though, just thinking out loud with you as you talk about this, OpenAI is a non-traditional company in its scale and how much it's changed, I would say, the world. And it's also facing what appears to be a chronic compute drought still this far into the AI cycle. So could it solve a non-traditional problem using traditional methods of raising money and so forth? Probably not. But I absolutely agree that what we're seeing here increasingly sounds circular, risky, and a

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  But the thing I find weird is the equity components of these deals. So NVIDIA investing a ton of money and buying shares in OpenAI, and then OpenAI is obviously buying a ton from NVIDIA. That screams of round tripping, and I'm sure that they are well aware of that and have been very thoughtful about outlining that. And then you have this deal, which is, hey, we'll buy some from you and we get some warrants. That's not unheard of, but it certainly is non-traditional. It just feels like there's a

• bullish endorsement Alex Wilhelm

  You don't want all your eggs in one basket if you are OpenAI.

• neutral assessment Alex Wilhelm

  it shows the relative power balance between NVIDIA on one side lots, and AMD on the other side less.

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  it's OpenAI securing quite a lot more compute capacity for the next couple of years.

• neutral fact_claim David Friedberg

  So OpenAI is buying a bunch of compute from AMD. Great. The money they're using to buy that is not AMD's money. AMD is just a supplier to them. AMD's not investing in OpenAI.

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  And so this is very non-traditional, to say the least.

• neutral fact_claim Alex Wilhelm

  AMD is going to supply OpenAI with up to six gigawatts worth of GPUs. Not all at once, in several tranches. The first one will land in the back half of 2026 when their new GPU comes out. ... As part of this deal, OpenAI gets to purchase stock in AMD at one cent per share, the par value of its stock, in tranches again. So every time it buys a bunch of GPUs, it gets to buy a bunch of their stock for one cent per share. About 10% of the company is the way this one's going to shake out.

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  there is another app that people are already installing on their phone that will remove the sora logo so there's always going to be workarounds

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  sora is it it says s-o-r-a and has the logo i believe

• bearish criticism Unattributed

  i feel like these companies need to be more serious about making sure that any output that you create the word gemini should be on it it should say gemini

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  if you average that out if there's been four of these in what looks like an eight-year period maybe once every six months yeah i was basing my once every six months across all clouds so it seems like they're having you know a major network outage every two years at amazon that to me seems acceptable

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  this has happened in 17, 20 and 21 as well according to producer claude so something to keep in mind for people building

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  the whole internet is being held up by the block entitled u.s east one and without that block everything came a tumbling down

• neutral assessment David Friedberg

  this happens to every provider every couple of years which means we experience these type of outages i would say on average every six months right now usually they're corrected so quickly that they fade from memory this one seems to have hit a decent swath of important services

• mixed assessment David Friedberg

  even if people are exaggerating the numbers by a multiple uh of 2x or 3x it's still going to be a huge spend and that's a good thing for america

• mixed criticism Chamath Palihapitiya

  people are trying to curry favor with the administration by saying they're investing in america which is this administration's uh you know major marketing effort their major way to say we should take out regulations is there's a lot of investment going on to a certain extent uh they're succeeding even if people are exaggerating the numbers by a multiple uh of 2x or 3x it's still going to be a huge spend and that's a good thing for america

• bearish criticism David Friedberg

  wait a second you know we were basing it on you know the price earnings ratio what's the price earnings ratio of core weave at this point what's their debt you know you start looking at those aggressive neo clouds uh and hyperscalers yeah you might just have a come to jesus moment

• bearish prediction Chamath Palihapitiya

  one of these data center projects will go belly up or one of these data center projects will um have their valuation just get walloped so there are you know like a core weave right and so let's say core weave um has a lot of debt and they're buying a lot of um capacity and they're building a bunch of projects there might come a point where they say you know what um we have to pay back and we've got loans and we've got payments to make yeah we're going to pause those two places where we broke gro

• bullish fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  I also think Jensen's a little pissed off, you know, if you're going to offer to invest all this money and then the next week, you know, he's buying chips from AMD and, you know, dropping these other announcements.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  And, uh, so AMD has one and it's called SNP SEV.

• neutral fact_claim Alex Kendall

  we brought an investment from um nvidia uh qualcomm arm amd all the the big chip companies and then uber nissan mercedes celantis uh and microsoft

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  AMD Ryzen, R-Y-Z-E-N worth taking a look at.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  We're talking about the AMD Ryzen AI Halo developer platform running Linux. $4,000 is the base price. It has 120 gigs of RAM as Jason said, two terabytes of SSD and also a whole bunch of, of course, AMD GPUs built in there.

• bullish endorsement Unattributed

  And this is the AMD by the way and 128 gigs Windows or Linux 60 FP16 TFLOPs. It is just an extraordinary machine. And I think they're probably losing, I'm guessing they're losing money on this thing. And it's just to court developers to their platform.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  The future of AI is all of your employees having a $10,000 workstation like that and that $10,000 workstation having a terabyte of RAM,

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  In fact, I think desktop computing and workstations are coming back. AMD launched a workstation.

• bullish prediction Chamath Palihapitiya

  if you look at amd and nvidia they've been getting paid for years they continue to get paid they probably will continue to get paid even more

• bearish criticism Chamath Palihapitiya

  I mean, sadly, this is another case of sell the news. These things rallied phantomly in the after hours. And if you look at them, they've, they've all just given back every dollar of gains. So I think that people know that we're sort of at the tail end of the hype cycle on AI. And every chance, every time these things spike, people take an opportunity to just massively sell.

• neutral fact_claim Lisa Su

  amd-ers get up in the morning and they say you know how can i use technology to solve some of the world's most important challenges and you know ai is really our mechanism for doing that

• bullish prediction Lisa Su

  you will be able to judge whether we've done a good job or not by how we perform five years from now like the decisions we're making will take you know five plus years to play out but that's the key thing in tech like nothing is fast but hopefully it's quite lasting

• bullish fact_claim Chamath Palihapitiya

  two have just absolutely thrived and one has not

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  i i think this idea that the ai can be extremely smart and extremely capable like we think about how ai can design the future chips and it will design pieces of it but there's still a creativity of bringing it all together that i think humans are still absolutely at the center of that so i don't necessarily see the ai designing our next generation gpu right but i do see it helping us design the next generation gpu much faster and more reliably

• mixed assessment Lisa Su

  it's going to be you know more than five percent but you know let's call it less than 20 percent so low low double let's say low double digits ... well i think the important thing is i mean just think about like everybody wants a gpu right like if you look across the industry you really say you know the people who are going to win in ai want to have as much compute in their foundation as possible and they want assurance of supply we want to be able to supply this no matter what happens and so if

• bullish assessment Lisa Su

  we've been super impressed with the progress and you know if we look at the the main thing that we look at is you know yields and just how many chips do we get out on a given wafer and i would say it's equivalent between what we get in taiwan

• neutral fact_claim Lisa Su

  this is our latest generation um ai chip it's our mi355 chip 185 billion transistors takes about nine months to build lots of technology on it if i just uh this is um three nanometer and uh six nanometers so lots of

• mixed assessment Brad Gerstner

  so first this is a bet the farm bet by lisa sue right she's giving away 10 of the

• neutral fact_claim Jason Calacanis

  amd and open ai just closed a massive gpu deal could be worth 60 billion or more over the next five years obviously uh two companies are run by friends of the pod lisa from amd and sam from open ai both been on the pod amd stock rocketed up 35 since the announcement open ai committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of amd's next gen gpus a little bit of an interesting wrinkle here amd granted open ai warrants okay that's interesting for up to 160 million shares or 10 of the companies