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I think you have the perfect idea at the perfect time
I think Facebook is going to be more successful than Google is today
every one of the target companies so 18t several times IBM Microsoft went to all-time highs four years after the thing
then came the IBM case the result of that was to create an independent software industry right by ending the lock-in on the IBM operating system and it created personal computers
the management teams are you know are up to that task but failing that and you know obviously they haven't done it yet
Google and Facebook and and Microsoft and Amazon can have a great business without harming people
you're at the mercy of what Google and Facebook and Amazon and Microsoft will let you do
I'm worried about Amazon
Amazon could give you differential pricing based on what they know about your income
I don't think it's a coincidence that Amazon has now got a deal in health insurance because they can tell all kinds of things from this stuff
in Microsoft's case they could participate in the Internet they they did so we've been nicer to Microsoft than we were to some of you
then Microsoft which leads to the internet and what's here's the punchline every one of the target companies so 18t several times IBM Microsoft went to all-time highs four years after the thing and in the cause well because the business they were left with was still incredibly attractive and the tied romance and yet we created whole new industries
Google and Facebook and and Microsoft and Amazon can have a great business without harming people
you're at the mercy of what Google and Facebook and Amazon and Microsoft will let you do
I'm worried about Microsoft
if your Google if you are Facebook if you are Microsoft and we're really talking about being in there AI business or if you're Amazon what you want to do is gather all the data that's available from every source and that's not just the things people post but it's their actions before they post something it's all the metadata from all the things they're doing on the Internet but their credit card history their bank history their geolocation from their cellular carrier it's health data you can get
that's what the aggregate vation that that Google Facebook Twitter did to our our thought process because they took a country that was already somewhat polarized and by giving each people their own world to live in they made the polarization much worse
the value of data has been going up geometrically and the tell is that look at the average revenue per user for these guys right now it's going
these people actually do monopolize our public square and if they decide they don't like something there is no appeal
almost everybody uses Google Docs which are terrible products and horrible for you
Google's got this bright shining light in Google Ventures going hey we like blockchain and we like you know things your parents used to do for you and we like you know transportation so they've taken all the money away from the core of the Internet and brought it into these things that are more capital intensive take longer and you know Google buys enough stuff to keep the venture guys happy and then writes them off yeah right go look at the history of their stuff it's brilliant I mean these guy
Google and Facebook and and Microsoft and Amazon can have a great business without harming people
there are lots of companies who have had really promising starts only discover that their capital dries up or you know Google suddenly is doing yes the algorithm has switched the algorithm to take away
if you're an entrepreneur and you've had this experience yourself you're at the mercy of what Google and Facebook and Amazon and Microsoft will let you do
i think if you're google you kind of like having a homogeneous employee base of white and Asian males between 25 and 35 right and so if you can sit there and say whoa this AI is doing it in its value neutral right it sort of gets you off the hook
you get the situation of the the facial recognition that either doesn't recognize women which I think was a Microsoft product or doesn't recognize people of color which was the Google product where all asian people look the same i think was their major problem
I'm Way more you know in this world I'm much more world worried about Google I'm worried about Amazon I'm worried about Microsoft I'm also worried about Facebook but you know the guys who independently sell AI and the people who sell smart devices they're the ones you really got to worry about right
now imagine they're tracking over a period of ten years your mouse movements are going to create a fingerprint ... they now know you of a neurological problem ... their business is to go to an insurance company and say hey is this guy a client of yours because if so he's got a problem
Google's getting you to do that because you're training the AR for the ki for their car system right that's for their automobiles they can tell you're a human based on the way your mouse moves
Google had this insight and in 2003 filed a patent that said while we're making changes to search engines to improve it we're getting your feedback and your the data we're getting all this other data that has nothing to do with improving the search engine but we believe it's extremely valuable it has predictive power on human behavior so they patented behavioral prediction using all the sources of data available from people using internet search and then other apps so here's the basic notion if
you're looking at YouTube or you know frankly Google search and because they're reinforcing what you like
Tristan Harris who had been the design Ephesus to Google he's on the show that day he'd been on 60 minutes two days before and he had this whole episode of 60 minutes talking about what he called brain hacking which is really persuasive to knowledge easy modification but it was persuasive technology and how it evolved when she got to smoke smart phones
Microsoft or Yahoo or anybody else is gonna just trash this thing
either Microsoft or Yahoo is gonna offer a billion dollars for Facebook
either Microsoft or Yahoo is gonna offer a billion dollars for Facebook
who had built the largest most disruptive ad network
she and Marissa and Susan yeah all and you know there are obviously other people but they I think they as a team crafted but Cheryl's job was to scale it right and to scale the ad sales and all that stuff which is a huge job
I mean the Washington Post is dying and why are they dying because Google's killing it
I believe you've broken the code that in social media the thing we know is that anonymity breeds trolls which undermines the viability of a social network because at that time he doesn't even have news feed yet in it's just a Facebook and just high high school and college students so he's got a Fanta cated identity
I think Facebook is going to be more successful than Google is today
it's really obvious that this is really about a business model as I described in the book it's a business model that's that Facebook didn't even invent I mean Google invented it yeah and Facebook's on it there's a piece of Amazon that's on it and a rapidly growing piece of Microsoft that's on it
in the Fayette case of of Facebook's properties and Google's properties by essentially having the loudest voice in the public square in every country in which they operate which was the whole civilized world essentially and especially the developed world and European and the Americas and in those environments when you're the loudest voice in the public square when you dominate politics you have responsibilities that you cannot shirk and when you're not elected and you're not accountable hmm you
I think you have the perfect idea at the perfect time
I believe you've broken the code that in social media the thing we know is that anonymity breeds trolls which undermines the viability of a social network... authenticated identity plus the ability of people to control the privacy... those things gonna let you scale this thing and make you eventually more important than Google as today
I think Facebook is going to be more successful than Google is today