Companies108 Funding$41.6B Rounds77 ▼1 mo Investors75 Eng roles4338 ● updated moments ago
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Substack

current — rebuilt moments ago

Substack

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The app for independent voices observed

fresh · evidence 4d ago 11 sources no confidence data
14.4/100
Venture signal
scored above 4% of unstaged peers stage unparsed
Outlook Stable
Why this score? ↓

What we have established three decisions, kept apart

  1. 1 Identity verified Not recorded

    No person- or entity-level identity check is on record for this company. A name match is not one.

  2. 2 Evidence sufficient to publish Yes

    The inclusion bar: two or more independent sourced evidence families. This profile is published and listed. It is a statement about how much evidence we hold, and about nothing else.

  3. 3 Fit for a seed/Series-A sourcing buyer Not established

    We have not established fit. That is not a soft no and not a soft yes — it is unknown, and it is never counted as a qualified prospect.

    UNKNOWN (not a soft no, never counted as qualified). Blocker: No source states a band-bearing stage for any financing event we hold.

    Venture backing: not found · Stage band: UNKNOWN — No source states a band-bearing stage for any financing event we hold.

    What would overturn this:

    Assessed 2026-10-24 for seed/Series-A sourcing.

Funding
$9M
Adoption
no signal
downloads / week
Developer
not scored
momentum / 100
Hiring
no board
eng openings
Commercial
sales-led
homepage

Composite signal v0 insufficient evidence — 1 of 5 components

Five evidence lanes (activity, capital, infra, hiring, ecosystem) as within-cohort percentiles, combined with evidence-breadth weights over the 60-company baseline cohort. The ± band widens with missing lanes — it measures what the score stands on. Scores publish at 2+ evidence lanes; this company's tape carries 1 (4 signals/60d), so no number is claimed.

Traction

Current round

Opportunity & risk

↗ Strongest signal: funding_magnitude (5% of the score).

↓ Scored on 1 of 4 components — funding_recency, adoption, developer had no computable metric.

8 independent sources 0 promoted signals inspect the evidence →

The skeptic's read what this company has said, judged against what happened

3 claims on record 0 verified 3 contradicted 0 still unproven

Sharpest miss on record: “Substack will not reach $250 million in revenue.” — Substack's revenue reached approximately $250 million in 2022, exceeding the predicted threshold.

Unproven ≠ false — it means the deadline or the evidence hasn't arrived. Nothing here is editorial: every count is a ledger row you can open on the Proof page.

Evaluation

How it's evaluated Four independent layers ▾

No single number decides. Layers can disagree — that's the point. New to this? →

Platform score derived
14/100
Founder self-assessment claimed
11/100
Investor ratings opinion
—
Expert ratings opinion
—
Rate this company Investor or expert role required ▾
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What people are saying 2 signals from 0 voices ▾
Technology No signals collected yet ▾
No technology data yet. This category is part of the record and will populate as evidence is collected or the founder provides it.
Team & hiring No signals collected yet ▾
No team & hiring data yet. This category is part of the record and will populate as evidence is collected or the founder provides it.
Market & funding stage No signals collected yet ▾
No market & funding stage data yet. This category is part of the record and will populate as evidence is collected or the founder provides it.

Evidence & scoring

Why this score? none_required ▾

VentureSignalScore 14.4/100 for substack, composed from 1 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.79 for 30% signal coverage

ComponentWeightNormalizedContribution
funding_magnitude 0.3 0.1817 0.0545

Evidence this score rests on

  • funding.round.amount_usd 2026-10-08 artifact ↗ superseded since

Narrative vs. reality No SEC filing found for this round

Reported narrative · Tier 2
$9M
announced —
Filed reality · Tier 0 · SEC
No SEC Form D on record.

An evidence gap, not proof of falsity: Form D is not always required (foreign offerings, certain exemptions) or may not be filed yet.

Financing events four different events, four different dates

A first sale, a filing, an amendment and a public announcement are not the same event, and one date may not stand in for another. Where the latest financing date cannot be established from what we hold, this says unknown rather than substituting a date we do have.

Latest established financing date
unknown
Money moved on or after
not established
Total reported by
not established
Basis
unknown

No reported round and no SEC filing on record — no financing date is established.

Community chatter Hacker News · Tier 3 · unverified manip. risk low · 0.19

Gray-market attention, not quality. 48+ HN mentions (peak 748 points). Claim-shaped headlines are rumors until corroborated — a Tier-3 factual claim carries no evidentiary weight on its own. Risk drivers: heavy gray-market attention. ▲ 748 Substack Notes Launched 2023-04-11 ↗

Raw observations 34 records ▾
AttributeValueKindSourceObservedStateConf.
buyer_fit.assessment {"buyer": "seed/Series-A sourcing", "method": "Backlog pass 2026-10-24: applied the record_buyer_fit.ts fit rule to this company's held primary-source financing evidence (funding.round.* / sec.form_d. observed assessment 2026-10-24 normalized 0.90
buyer_fit.status unknown observed assessment 2026-10-24 normalized 0.90
common_name Substack observed intelligence.claims 2026-10-01 normalized 0.90
common_name Substack observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 normalized 0.60
community.hn.max_points 748 observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-26 normalized 0.20
community.hn.mentions 50 observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-26 superseded 0.20
community.hn.mentions 48 observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 normalized 0.20
community.hn.rumors [] observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-26 normalized 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35526768", "title": "Substack Notes Launched", "points": 748, "created_at": "2023-04-11"} observed artifact ↗ 2023-04-11 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35526768", "title": "Substack Notes Launched", "points": 748, "created_at": "2023-04-11"} observed artifact ↗ 2023-04-11 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35526768", "title": "Substack Notes Launched", "points": 748, "created_at": "2023-04-11"} observed artifact ↗ 2023-04-11 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35526768", "title": "Substack Notes Launched", "points": 748, "created_at": "2023-04-11"} observed artifact ↗ 2023-04-11 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35526768", "title": "Substack Notes Launched", "points": 748, "created_at": "2023-04-11"} observed artifact ↗ 2023-04-11 normalized 0.20
description The app for independent voices observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 normalized 0.70
domain substack.com observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 normalized 0.95
funding.round.amount_usd 9000000 observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 superseded 0.50
funding.round.amount_usd 9000000 observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 superseded 0.50
funding.round.amount_usd 9000000 observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 normalized 0.50
metric.venture.funding_amount_usd 9000000 derived calc 2026-10-08 derived 0.50
score.venture_signal 14.4 derived calc 2026-10-08 derived 0.26
sector emerging derived calc 2026-09-28 normalized 0.50
signal.attributed_claims 3 observed intelligence.claims 2026-09-26 parsed 0.90
signal.commentary {"context": null, "run_ref": "01M4EJVPF993X8F15ZARS56TAS", "signals": [{"quote": "you raised 9 million recently. You also partnered with Substack. And so Substack's new tool will tell you who's been w observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 superseded 0.50
signal.commentary {"context": null, "run_ref": "01M4EJVPF993X8F15ZARS56TAS", "signals": [{"quote": "I think we're seeing a really wide range. Like, I think we haven't really settled on any given norm. There's some peop observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 superseded 0.50
signal.commentary {"context": null, "run_ref": "01M4EJVPF993X8F15ZARS56TAS", "signals": [{"quote": "you raised 9 million recently. You also partnered with Substack. And so Substack's new tool will tell you who's been w observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 superseded 0.50
signal.commentary {"context": null, "run_ref": "01M4EJVPF993X8F15ZARS56TAS", "signals": [{"quote": "I think we're seeing a really wide range. Like, I think we haven't really settled on any given norm. There's some peop observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 superseded 0.50
signal.commentary {"context": null, "run_ref": "01M4EJVPF993X8F15ZARS56TAS", "signals": [{"quote": "you raised 9 million recently. You also partnered with Substack. And so Substack's new tool will tell you who's been w observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 promoted 0.50
signal.commentary {"context": null, "run_ref": "01M4EJVPF993X8F15ZARS56TAS", "signals": [{"quote": "I think we're seeing a really wide range. Like, I think we haven't really settled on any given norm. There's some peop observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 promoted 0.50
source.document.reference {"kind": "podcast", "title": "traffic.megaphone.fm/TCML1164968092.mp3 — substack", "source_id": "01M3VJ77EKHNCZC4G2WE6NWY5E-m-d411633327714b72", "extract_ref": "artifact:sha256:5bd6d86fb596e32b9247d30 observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-01 superseded 0.95
source.document.reference {"kind": "podcast", "title": "traffic.megaphone.fm/TCML1164968092.mp3 — substack", "source_id": "01M3VJ77EKHNCZC4G2WE6NWY5E-m-d411633327714b72", "extract_ref": "artifact:sha256:5bd6d86fb596e32b9247d30 observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 superseded 0.95
source.document.reference {"kind": "podcast", "title": "traffic.megaphone.fm/TCML1164968092.mp3 — substack", "source_id": "01M3VJ77EKHNCZC4G2WE6NWY5E-m-d411633327714b72", "extract_ref": "artifact:sha256:5bd6d86fb596e32b9247d30 observed artifact ↗ 2026-09-02 normalized 0.95
website_url https://substack.com observed enrichment 2026-10-08 normalized 0.85
website_url https://substack.com observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 normalized 0.95
website.homepage.has_pricing_link false observed artifact ↗ 2026-10-08 normalized 0.80