Companies330 Funding$40.1B Rounds110 ▲5 mo Investors77 Eng roles3943 ● 20 events pending
VIX The Intelligent Venture Terminal beta

Probably

stale — 20 unprocessed events

Probably

☆ Watch
stale · evidence today 10 sources no confidence data
35/100
Venture signal
scored above 38% of pre-seed peers
Outlook Stable WATCH
Why this score? ↓
Funding
$9M
2026-06-16
Adoption
no signal
downloads / week
Developer
not scored
momentum / 100
Hiring
no board
eng openings

Ecosystem

Derived connections from primary evidence — Form D officer rosters and shared lead investors. A shared name is a lead, not proof of identity.

investor andreessen horowitz → Inferact investor andreessen horowitz → Replit investor andreessen horowitz → ElevenLabs investor andreessen horowitz → Etched

Traction

Current round

Opportunity & risk

↗ Strongest signal: funding_recency (15% of the score).

⚠The AI evaluation council recorded dissent on this company.
6 independent sources 0 promoted signals inspect the evidence →

The skeptic's read what this company has said, judged against what happened

5 claims on record 1 verified 0 contradicted 4 still unproven

Unproven ≠ false — it means the deadline or the evidence hasn't arrived. Nothing here is editorial: every count is a ledger row you can open on the Proof page.

Evaluation

How it's evaluated Four independent layers ▾

No single number decides. Layers can disagree — that's the point. New to this? →

Platform score derived
35/100
Founder self-assessment claimed
8/100
Investor ratings opinion
—
Expert ratings opinion
—
Rate this company Investor or expert role required ▾
—/5 · 0 investors

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Technology No signals collected yet ▾
No technology data yet. This category is part of the record and will populate as evidence is collected or the founder provides it.
Team & hiring No signals collected yet ▾
No team & hiring data yet. This category is part of the record and will populate as evidence is collected or the founder provides it.
Market & funding stage 1 of 3 signals present ▾
Funding stage
not provided
Lifecycle stage
not provided
Latest round stage
seed observed stale
Timeline 1 events ▾
  1. 2026-06-16 seed · $9M · Led by Andreessen Horowitz

Evidence & scoring

Why this score? none_required ▾

VentureSignalScore 35/100 for probably, composed from 2 of 4 components (emerging formula), discounted ×0.85 for 50% signal coverage

ComponentWeightNormalizedContribution
funding_recency 0.2 0.7582 0.1516
funding_magnitude 0.3 0.1817 0.0545

Evidence this score rests on

Capital timeline every dated signal, across tiers

  1. reported $9M reported (seed) ↗
  2. rumor Uber CEO says its service will probably shut down temporarily in California ↗

Narrative vs. reality No SEC filing found for this round

Reported narrative · Tier 2
$9M seed
announced 2026-06-16 · source ↗
Filed reality · Tier 0 · SEC
No SEC Form D on record.

An evidence gap, not proof of falsity: Form D is not always required (foreign offerings, certain exemptions) or may not be filed yet.

Counterparty exposure shared-investor contagion

Companies coupled to this one by a shared investor — if a common backer pulls back or a fund hits trouble, the shock propagates across the set. More shared investors = tighter coupling.

ElevenLabs 1 shared andreessen-horo… Etched 1 shared andreessen-horo… Inferact 1 shared andreessen-horo… Replit 1 shared andreessen-horo…

Community chatter Hacker News · Tier 3 · unverified manip. risk low · 0.2

Gray-market attention, not quality. 50+ HN mentions (peak 1075 points). Claim-shaped headlines are rumors until corroborated — a Tier-3 factual claim carries no evidentiary weight on its own. Risk drivers: heavy gray-market attention. ▲ 1075 You probably don't need AI/ML. You can make do with well written SQL scripts 2018-04-22 ↗

Raw observations 355 records ▾
AttributeValueKindSourceObservedStateConf.
ai.document.claims {"claims": [{"claim": "Probably raised $9 million in funding.", "quote": "\"amount_usd\":9000000", "topic": "Funding amount", "section": 0}, {"claim": "The funding was announced on June 16, 2026.", "q observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-24 promoted 0.50
ai.technical.assessment {"council": {"dissent": true, "members": [{"agent": "technical_specialist", "domain": "technical", "signal": 0.5, "signal_source": "model"}, {"agent": "product_docs_specialist", "domain": "product_doc derived council 2026-07-14 promoted 0.33
common_name Probably observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-14 normalized 0.90
common_name Probably AI observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-24 normalized 0.60
community.hn.max_points 1075 observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-18 normalized 0.20
community.hn.mentions 50 observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-18 normalized 0.20
community.hn.rumors [{"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24132722", "title": "Uber CEO says its service will probably shut down temporarily in California", "points": 398, "created_at": "2020-08-12", "evidence_t observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-18 superseded 0.20
community.hn.rumors [{"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24132722", "title": "Uber CEO says its service will probably shut down temporarily in California", "points": 398, "created_at": "2020-08-12", "evidence_t observed artifact ↗ 2026-08-16 superseded 0.20
community.hn.rumors [{"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24132722", "title": "Uber CEO says its service will probably shut down temporarily in California", "points": 398, "created_at": "2020-08-12", "evidence_t observed artifact ↗ 2020-08-12 superseded 0.20
community.hn.rumors [{"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24132722", "title": "Uber CEO says its service will probably shut down temporarily in California", "points": 398, "created_at": "2020-08-12", "evidence_t observed artifact ↗ 2020-08-12 superseded 0.20
community.hn.rumors [{"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24132722", "title": "Uber CEO says its service will probably shut down temporarily in California", "points": 398, "created_at": "2020-08-12", "evidence_t observed artifact ↗ 2020-08-12 normalized 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16898827", "title": "You probably don't need AI/ML. You can make do with well written SQL scripts", "points": 1075, "created_at": "2018-04-22"} observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-18 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16898827", "title": "You probably don't need AI/ML. You can make do with well written SQL scripts", "points": 1075, "created_at": "2018-04-22"} observed artifact ↗ 2026-08-16 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16898827", "title": "You probably don't need AI/ML. You can make do with well written SQL scripts", "points": 1075, "created_at": "2018-04-22"} observed artifact ↗ 2018-04-22 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16898827", "title": "You probably don't need AI/ML. You can make do with well written SQL scripts", "points": 1075, "created_at": "2018-04-22"} observed artifact ↗ 2018-04-22 superseded 0.20
community.hn.top_story {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16898827", "title": "You probably don't need AI/ML. You can make do with well written SQL scripts", "points": 1075, "created_at": "2018-04-22"} observed artifact ↗ 2018-04-22 normalized 0.20
domain probably.ai observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-24 normalized 0.95
funding.round.amount_usd 9000000 observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-14 normalized 0.90
funding.round.announced_on 2026-06-16 observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-14 normalized 0.90
funding.round.lead_investors ["Andreessen Horowitz"] observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-14 normalized 0.90
funding.round.source_url https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/16/probably-raises-9m-to-build-a-more-reliable-kind-of-ai/ observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-14 normalized 0.90
funding.round.stage seed observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-14 normalized 0.90
gate.accumulation {"outcome": "document_created", "obs_count": 14, "source_id": "01KYAX4JN3F5KZ395WEBF9WGRG", "trigger_path": "accumulation_gate", "collector_count": 3, "artifact_collector": "funding_intake"} observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-24 normalized 0.60
index.ai_tie NOT_AI observed classify 2026-07-25 derived 0.60
metric.venture.funding_amount_usd 9000000 derived calc 2026-07-14 derived 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 28.5764 derived calc 2026-07-14 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 28.5777 derived calc 2026-07-14 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 28.6339 derived calc 2026-07-14 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 28.6786 derived calc 2026-07-14 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 30.3333 derived calc 2026-07-16 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 30.3402 derived calc 2026-07-16 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 30.4789 derived calc 2026-07-16 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 32.9566 derived calc 2026-07-18 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 38.2519 derived calc 2026-07-24 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 38.6171 derived calc 2026-07-24 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 38.7825 derived calc 2026-07-24 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 38.854 derived calc 2026-07-24 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 38.8544 derived calc 2026-07-24 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 38.9739 derived calc 2026-07-24 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.0554 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.0651 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.0721 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
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metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.0742 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.0786 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
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metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.0809 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.0815 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 39.1123 derived calc 2026-07-25 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 53.7813 derived calc 2026-08-08 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 61.2552 derived calc 2026-08-16 superseded 0.90
metric.venture.funding_recency_days 61.6998 derived calc 2026-08-16 superseded 0.90
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score.venture_signal 35.9 derived calc 2026-09-02 superseded 0.60
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score.venture_signal 35.7 derived calc 2026-09-04 superseded 0.60
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score.venture_signal 35.1 derived calc 2026-09-11 superseded 0.60
score.venture_signal 35 derived calc 2026-09-12 derived 0.60
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source.document.reference {"kind": "document", "title": "probably — funding_intake snapshot (accumulation gate)", "source_id": "01KYAX4JN3F5KZ395WEBF9WGRG", "extract_ref": "artifact:sha256:29fd0507d891f6602184671e4f3b7a24edad6 observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-24 normalized 0.95
website_url https://probably.ai observed enrichment 2026-07-24 normalized 0.75
website_url https://probably.ai observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-24 normalized 0.95
website.homepage.has_pricing_link false observed artifact ↗ 2026-07-24 normalized 0.80