100%
5/5 predictions confirmed
7 pending · 0 expired
if he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is going to go right now he's adding 2 million subscribers on the consumer side a quarter. You could see that going to 4 to 5 million a quarter. You could actually see an acceleration in the consumer subscriptions.
how well the Starlink business performs, and you can see it in AT&T and Verizon, HughesNet, ViaSat. I mean, these companies have been decimated.
The Starlink business alone could be a trillion dollar market cap within 2 years, within 18 months, let's say.
Starlink alone could be generating on the order of 40 billion dollars of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be a 30 billion dollar free cash flow within the year.
the connectivity piece on Starlink, 4.3 billion in the quarter, and 2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA. He's got 12 million subscribers, that's doubled year-over-year. $66 ARPU per month, uh what people are paying per month. And he grew 20% quarter over quarter.
Starlink's just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine. If you look at the financials, their segment reports space, connectivity, and AI. And on the connectivity side, the Starlink side, it generated $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA.
And if he launches the handset thing, that subscriber growth is going to go right now he's adding 2 million subscribers on the consumer side a quarter. You could see that going to 4 to 5 million a quarter. You could actually see an acceleration in the consumer subscriptions.
It's crazy to me how well the Starlink business performs, and you can see it in AT&T and Verizon, HughesNet, ViaSat. I mean, these companies have been decimated. I used to have a HughesNet satellite dish on my Sonoma County ranch in order to get internet, that's what we had to use. It was like, you know, 200 bucks a month or something. ... And that market got decimated by Starlink.
Starlink alone could be generating on the order of 40 billion dollars of revenue top line with a huge amount of that flowing to free cash. That could be a 30 billion dollar free cash flow within the year. That alone provides the cash flow to fund much of what what Elon's doing. And if you just put a 30X multiple on that, which I think you can because these subscription businesses are very high renewal rate, very low CAC, I think he could probably get a 30X just on the Starlink business. The Star
I think Starlink's just an unbelievable juggernaut cash machine. If you look at the financials, their segment reports space, connectivity, and AI. And on the connectivity side, the Starlink side, it they generated $2.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA.
with recent announcements on our end we're automating support for those actually so you can upload those types of videos that don't have to come from that forty thousand dollar camera can come from an insta360 or gopro and you can have a what they call a unique field of view so we will handle all that complexity for you and you can just get a video file or stream that works right out of the box
we're currently raising but we're not hiring just yet we will after the race
able to sit through a full nba game and i think that's really what they're they're going for in the upcoming year
the iphones can take spatial videos and they can take spatial photos right now so you have the capability to already start capturing the media you want because you can instead of just looking at it on a screen later a photo of a family member you can step back into that scene with the vision pro
i thought it was kind of a gimmick in a sense i didn't i didn't like the resolution of the image it was very fuzzy but you know when you try this on it's a whole different experience
The average single-family home in Texas with one battery is going to get about 24 hours of backup with kind of moderate usage, and then, of course, 24 hours, sorry, 48 hours of backup with two batteries.
We're looking to expand in early 2026. So we haven't yet announced what our next market will be, but we hope to bring base to every household in America and beyond. And we want to be a global energy technology market leader.
It could be hundreds of thousands of single-family homes.
there's usually some kind of catchment area is a term I would use around the data center in which you can install the batteries such that they are electrically equivalent to having the battery behind the meter at the data center.
I think it could be the opposite actually where these hyperscalers are actually subsidizing the power costs for the consumer in this kind of mechanism that I've described. So, you know, we hope to flip that script.
we want to win the AI race. We want to help these data center loads get grid connected faster.
So we are working on a product that we call Speed to Power, which is a solution for data center developers to get grid connected faster.
With our next generation product is a 40-kilowatt-hour battery and 20-kilowatt inverter.
So LFP really do have safety, right? So when you see, you know, safety risk with batteries, most of that is oriented around NMC batteries because you have higher C rates and higher risk of thermal runaway. And effectively what that means is you can charge and discharge the battery much faster, which really matters in a car, right? Because you got to get, you know, zero to 60 in three seconds. Doesn't matter so much in a home battery. And so the LFP chemistry is a better solution for stationary s
So we do everything above the cell. So we take the cells and we design modules and the modules are part of a pack. And then we build the power electronics that basically make up the inverter that allow us to move power in and out of the battery. And so we design all of those components that are above the cell. What I'll say is today we don't make cells. I think, you know, over the long arc of time, we may go into the cell business as we further vertically integrate. And if we do that, the reason
A lot of the capital will go into battery CapEx. So, you know, the things that go through the factory, some amount of it will go into the machines. The building is already standing. A new building from scratch. We'll soon be able to talk more about Base Factory 2, which will be a bit more CapEx. But the majority of the capital is going to be going into these assets. And then growing our team, right? We've got 250 people, some of the best engineers, operators, and creatives from all across the co
So by vertically integrating our manufacturing here in Austin, we'll be able to take a ton of costs out of the system and drive our landed costs down, tighten those paybacks as we discussed, increase our returns, and drive costs down for consumers. And really, this is what it's all about, right? It's like, why are we building a factory? Like, yes, it's cool to have a factory and it's fun to walk around and, you know, touch the machines. But the reality is, like, we're doing this because we want
Yeah, the idea is that as we develop new generations of the technology, our cost to deploy the marginal asset goes down, the paybacks shorten, and our returns go up, and then we pass those returns on to the customer in the form of lower prices. So our view is that electricity is a commodity. The best electron is the cheapest electron. So our vision as a business is to develop a compounding cost advantage through vertical integration, drive cost down for the consumer, and sell the lowest cost ele
We're looking to expand in early 2026. So we haven't yet announced what our next market will be, but we hope to bring base to every household in America and beyond. And we want to be a global energy technology market leader.
The average single-family home in Texas with one battery is going to get about 24 hours of backup with kind of moderate usage, and then, of course, 24 hours, sorry, 48 hours of backup with two batteries.
Yeah, I think it could be the opposite actually where these hyperscalers are actually subsidizing the power costs for the consumer in this kind of mechanism that I've described. So, you know, we hope to flip that script.
The next question is about the data center build-out. So we are working on a product that we call Speed to Power, which is a solution for data center developers to get grid connected faster. ... So what we can do is we can say, hey, meta, we can go deploy, such that the batteries are electrically equivalent to having a big battery on the site of the data center. ... So what I'd rather do is have a third party come in and say, hey, you can actually just buy our battery capacity from us. We'll dis
So there's, you know, on the order of 10 million single-family homes in Texas, 10% of 10 million is a million homes, right? With our next generation product is a 40-kilowatt-hour battery and 20-kilowatt inverter. So, you know, a million homes with 20 kilowatts in each home is two gigawatts, right? So, you know, adding 20 gigawatts to the grid is, you know, massive amount of scale. Sorry, 20 gigawatts, excuse me. So, you know, that's a lot of capacity that we add to the grid with, you know, just
So LFP really do have safety, right? So when you see, you know, safety risk with batteries, most of that is oriented around NMC batteries because you have higher C rates and higher risk of thermal runaway. And effectively what that means is you can charge and discharge the battery much faster, which really matters in a car, right? Because you got to get, you know, zero to 60 in three seconds. Doesn't matter so much in a home battery.
They're not actually. There's lots of the companies that make the IP for the cells are Chinese companies, but they have factories all over the world. So you see a lot of these factories popping up in, some of them in Europe, some of them in Southeast Asia, some of them are getting built in the US largely through joint ventures. Many of them with the auto OEMs. But while most of the IP for lithium iron phosphate, not to get too technical, but there's kind of two dominant lithium-based chemistries
So we do everything above the cell. So we take the cells and we design modules and the modules are part of a pack. And then we build the power electronics that basically make up the inverter that allow us to move power in and out of the battery. And so we design all of those components that are above the cell. What I'll say is today we don't make cells. I think, you know, over the long arc of time, we may go into the cell business as we further vertically integrate. And if we do that, the reason
A lot of the capital will go into battery CapEx. So, you know, the things that go through the factory, some amount of it will go into the machines. The building is already standing. A new building from scratch. We'll soon be able to talk more about Base Factory 2, which will be a bit more CapEx. But the majority of the capital is going to be going into these assets. And then growing our team, right? We've got 250 people, some of the best engineers, operators, and creatives from all across the co
So by vertically integrating our manufacturing here in Austin, we'll be able to take a ton of costs out of the system and drive our landed costs down, tighten those paybacks as we discussed, increase our returns, and drive costs down for consumers. And really, this is what it's all about, right? It's like, why are we building a factory? Like, yes, it's cool to have a factory and it's fun to walk around and, you know, touch the machines. But the reality is, like, we're doing this because we want
Yeah, the idea is that as we develop new generations of the technology, our cost to deploy the marginal asset goes down, the paybacks shorten, and our returns go up, and then we pass those returns on to the customer in the form of lower prices. So our view is that electricity is a commodity. The best electron is the cheapest electron. So our vision as a business is to develop a compounding cost advantage through vertical integration, drive cost down for the consumer,
Companies like Apple use it. They have it installed on all the iPads in their App Stores. In their Sorry, in the Apple Stores.