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if Microsoft can combine the wow factor of the connect and some of its other recent successful consumer products with the long history of supporting a developer ecosystem uh then those developers can have a market to build for uh finally to compete with apples and I think it could be real interesting
I predict this thing is going to be sold within the next couple of months that's what this is telling me
because I think that the the publish And subscribe model of Facebook uh that gets its hooks into people and sends them updates all the time is uh going to be more valuable than than a oneoff search engine even in video uh I'll uh YouTube with some pre-rolls
if YouTube came out one year later two years later given what happened with valuations and you know the they would have been able to raise Pinterest level money
maybe they'll be the demand media of five years from now
I'm not sure that that uh the smaller iPad is necessarily going to be exciting to consumers or great for the web and the long run
because I think that the the publish And subscribe model of Facebook uh that gets its hooks into people and sends them updates all the time is uh going to be more valuable than than a oneoff search engine even in video
looking at Marissa Mayer who's an active Twitter user she's following 300 people on Twitter and not a single one of them is uh among this group of 500 leading mobile developers so if Mobile's the future uh it seems that at least on that platform that's not where she's engaging
I did a some analysis in little bird of the Blackberry developer channels audience and uh found that of the the top 500 most influential mobile developers on Twitter only 10% are following uh the Blackberry Dev account and it's not a particularly influential uh 10% uh even in that spectrum and more influential in that Community are are startups like flurry and test flight and Portland's Urban Airship all have more uh cache amongst top mobile developers than the Blackberry developer channel does
I think that this helps the smaller folks
I wonder how the the overhead and the potential Revenue Works uh for for Content producers when the the price is $5 or less per month
I've used a smaller tablet in a Galaxy Tab and it was fun as a novelty but I concerned that um you know for me one of my big interests is the well-being of the web
Google Maps on the on the old iPhone had uh Transit directions as an option and now the the Apple Maps doesn't those are are gone
I would love to see innovation in dialers and keypads and and all kinds of stuff like that but I I can't help have this lingering doubt in the back of my mind um when I think about the the weekend that I jail broke my iPad and there just is not much out there that really that people have taken the trouble to build that's really very interesting and the the swift key replacement which is would be wonderful to have on an iPad um is so broken that it's it's just unusable
yeah that is fair I mean he he was pretty disciplined about that
I'm not sure that that uh the smaller iPad is necessarily going to be exciting to consumers or great for the web and the long run
because I think that the the publish And subscribe model of Facebook uh that gets its hooks into people and sends them updates all the time is uh going to be more valuable than than a oneoff search engine even in video
what could it have existed as a standalone company if it didn't have Google's yes it could of course
Chad Hurley made whatever 3 or 400 million he should be worth more than Zuckerberg or at least as much
if YouTube came out one year later two years later given what happened with valuations and you know the they would have been able to raise Pinterest level money
I would argue YouTube is more valuable than Facebook
because I think that the the publish And subscribe model of Facebook uh that gets its hooks into people and sends them updates all the time is uh going to be more valuable than than a oneoff search engine even in video uh I'll uh YouTube with some pre-rolls
this sounds like a page out of the tired CEO Playbook
maybe they'll be the demand media of five years from now
everyone in the developer ecosystem is really hesitant to use even Yahoo's best developer tools now because they're afraid that they'll be shut down
if uh yeah poor money in R&D that sounds great sounds like that's a part of the the long history of innovation and and I think we're hopefully just at the beginning of this stuff
I think that this is the nerd Holy Grail and we'll see if they can pull it off.
Facebook I think has hit Peak social like peak oil Peak social
Google+ opened up its API for the first time this week and there was no discussion of circles or public circles or that kind of data being made accessible it was really simple and uh and it was a big disappointment meanwhile Here Comes Facebook with a a really intuitive automated version of what uh what Google Circles said it was going to bring to Market
I think that uh the smart lists are awesome I I just went on and started testing them today I'm I've got a thousand contacts on Facebook mostly family and friends but I've now I've got one button I can click and just catch up with all my old high school friends from 15 years years ago that would have otherwise been lost in the Stream and that I never see updates from it's automatic it's intuitive it delivers immediate value to real people's real lives
it's a really bad sign but there was there's also a historical when when Jack was kind of uh voted out yeah Fred and Bon were part of that vote right so maybe Jack coming back in and taking more of a prominent position it's just a it's a it's a it's this is one of those startups that I think is like in a way it's cursed
Dan primac says they sold up to 20% of their shares uh before leaving and they're the the technology guys as far as I'm concerned but look at the rest of the board it's money guys
most of the time when I see analytics products like this it just feels like a way to optimize your narcissism uh and I find Twitter to be a much more powerful uh listening platform than uh than a platform that I want to sit and Tinker with uh with the analytics of my my uh consumers that I'm publishing out to
well I I'm not not real big into any of these uh these kinds of issues to be honest but if a company that that offers both technology and media and advertising can do better in terms of advertising then hopefully they'll have more money to spend on the technology in the media and those of us who who come to consume that will get to to enjoy the fruits of their you inovation and labor so I I hope it works
what I find fascinating about Carol Bartz's tenure at Yahoo is that as a great operations person she didn't put somebody in the top position and just say to them listen copy the best things going on in the industry quickly if Yahoo just kept adding great features like you know they added to flicker like the Instagram stuff right they I if it was me I just go downstairs to the people fck like listen you make me an iPad app an iPhone app that has exactly what Instagram's doing just copy it pixel b
they're going to try to nail the user experience that uh that everyone was waiting for Yahoo to to nail after they acquired a geeky Tool
I predict this thing is going to be sold within the next couple of months that's what this is telling me
it's a really bad sign but there was there's also a historical when when Jack was kind of uh voted out yeah Fred and Bon were part of that vote right so maybe Jack coming back in and taking more of a prominent position it's just a it's a it's a this is one of those startups that I think is like in a way it's cursed like it feels just like the the flipping of management and CEO role and now board role that's just way too much to go on for this company to be successful
finally to compete with apples and I think it could be real interesting
I don't think people we're going to have a bifurcation there's going to be a best of breed when you have a keyboard and a best of breed when you have when you don't have a keyboard
I I I think it's going to be cooler for a television set and for a tablet than it is going to be for a desktop
the iPad is a very clean interface and this is very busy and I think that's one thing that for me gives me a little pause looking at it
I they sent me a Windows uh phone and I started playing with it and it does have a certain really nice fluidness to it
demo this kind of interface demos really well at a conference right but you don't this is not efficient and fun to do on a daily basis
it's not very linear it's almost like they went a little too off on guard in terms of the demos
if Microsoft can combine the wow factor of the connect and some of its other recent successful consumer products with the long history of supporting a developer ecosystem uh then those developers can have a market to build for uh finally to compete with apples and I think it could be real interesting
the fact is Google has given up on search Google does not care about organic search you heard it here first what they care about is giving an answer so what they're doing is saying we know that algorithmic search is over it's not what people want they want the answer so let's just buy a company in each vertical or build something that gives them the answer whether it's aat whether it's ITA giving the tra the flight information whether it's Sports whether it's Google Finance they're just going to
Mashable they should have just shut their account down instead they let him change it to you know the editor's name yeah it was pretty shocking that there was gambling going on in that establishment right yes very shocked
it's starting to become like the suggested user list controversy you know myself and Robert Scoble were two of the top people and dave winer people who earn their position in Twitter we were all in the top ten then they created a suggestion user list and we were all relegated to behind those 500 people they decided were anointed right and so you can really screw up the the organic pneus of your of your ecosystem by doing this
there's a lot of bitterness because it's very valuable and you start TechCrunch created a fake one you got to shut down ours got yeah ours got shut down and but the thing that's really infuriating for publishers is the people who behave themselves didn't get to build a following early on and early following is important
we've been hearing about the Twitter business suite for years now yeah and where is that I mean that's in the handful of probably a relative handful of select folks so hopefully hopefully plus for businesses is right around the corner and is as well executed in compelling as plus for individuals is today
we've served sure disgusted a lot and we decided not to create an official accountant to respect the wishes of the Google+ team hopefully they'll come out with something really awesome for business users really soon
Mashable obviously got to abuse the system and get a hundred thousand followers for their editor-in-chief
there was some debate early in the week about certain sites being allowed to have pages on google+ and others not so should google+ just instantly today open its doors and say if you're a business you can make a page or do they have a right to take it slow and restrict what kind of users they want to have
google has held firm that Google+ is only for individual users it's not for companies I France they've even started to remove pages that appear to be created on behalf of organizations as well as accounts that were set up for fictional characters or fake personas like that Darth Vader page google has insisted a Google+ solution for businesses brands and publishers is in the works but because the site has become so popular so quickly is such a driver of traffic obviously a lot of people are sort
if I wanted a survey and you know broader perspectives then I'd go plus
it's great for traffic but it's even better for discussions of posts before we publish them I mean I've been putting lead paragraphs draft articles in full early questions up and getting great discussions that that make for much better articles when we publish them and I mean I'd always done that on Twitter as well but but so far it's different and it's more and in a lot of cases it's better on plus
it's already one of our are leading sources of traffic
it seems to have a an assumption that something figured out already that isn't necessarily
my twitter usage has been cut by two-thirds I get more people clicking through I have a hundred and thousand followers or so on Twitter I've got 20,000 now in three weeks on google+ that click through rate on google+ i'm getting more people clicking through the launch to this we can start us into mahalo then i did and i'm getting ten times as many replies on fact it's basically 20 times facebook and it's double Twitter so there's something much much more engaging about Google+
the valuation is just too rich and you know i love the service i use this service i haven't gone to google+ I'm Twitter if it got my twitter light blue t-shirt on today but I just think at 3.7 or whatever the valuation is they're talking about right now we're talking about funny money and it's really hard to see how they ever actually justify that that valuation
I'm nervous... Twitter HQ because they have not taken a lot of steps uh in favor of power users