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So, TSMC, as you all have discussed before, produces the advanced semiconductors for essentially everybody, of whom we're the principal consumer, and we prevent them shipping this to China.
If the U.S. had to play this game only U.S. versus China, I think we lose.
India is growing much faster than China this year and last year and maybe next year
the Indian story, either theory one, India is about to become a serious rival to China. That's the fashionable story today. Theory two is India is the country of the future and will always be so. So we've been through already five of these cycles before where we declared India was about to rise rapidly, and lo and behold, India turns out to be India.
the most likely way war will happen in the U.S. and China, something happens in Taiwan, either we're unduly provocative or the Taiwanese provocative.
And their aspiration is to go back to normal. And normal for them is China is the, quote, center of the universe.
So, it's quite plausible that China will have a larger GDP even by market exchange rates than the U.S.
China was at the beginning of the century 10% of the U.S. GDP. Today it's three-quarters of the U.S. GDP.
a war between the U.S. and China in the year ahead? No. I'll give you 99 percent of that one. War between the U.S. and China in the next four years? No. I'd say 90 percent. No. War between the U.S. and China over the decades ahead if both stay on the current paths? I don't like that.
China is not just another great power, but is going to be the biggest power in the history of the world.