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And Amazon, I tend to think, will eat more out of offline commerce, than it will Google.
the e-commerce is still only eight percent of commerce. It's shockingly low. That number is going to go to thirty or forty.
whoever has the developers wins. ... The only people, who have that and probably have a shot at it, are Android and iOS.
at some point, the iPhone and the iPad will sort of run their course, but they'll be... the competition will be good enough.
these markets, if you believe in the Clayton M. Christensen's theory... the less vertically integrated guys are able to compete just as well. And over time, those people will eventually win
typically, historically, probably, two companies survive. So you've got five companies with hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap and cash. uh... All of them are, like, directly colliding, and two will survive.
I tend to think they are both great companies. And Amazon, I tend to think, will eat more out of offline commerce, than it will Google. Do you know what I mean? Like, that's where I wouldů If Iů If you are going to go long Amazon, you're going to short BestBuy.
I mean, the e-commerce is still only eight percent of commerce. It's shockingly low. That number is going to go to thirty or forty.
this is the biggest delta between, I would say what the early adopters understand is possible now, uh, versus what kind of everybody, kind of normal people understand. Um, and I, I think that's, you know, true at the individual level, but it's especially true at the company level. Um, and the early, the AI native early stage startups have just a completely different view on what they can do with AI than the, than the, than sort of, you know, typical incumbents in almost any industry, uh, almost
And, importantly, they still have their founder-CEO visionary, right? He's like running it.
I mean, the e-commerce is still only eight percent of commerce. It's shockingly low. That number is going to go to thirty or forty.
I tend to think they are both great companies. And Amazon, I tend to think, will eat more out of offline commerce, than it will Google. Do you know what I mean? Like, that's where I wouldů If Iů If you are going to go long Amazon, you're going to short BestBuy.
I think, their commerce position is just, you know, very very strong. uh... And it might be really interesting leverage into, like,ů They are ableů This is really fascinating, because, like, they're able to use that, to subsidize, you know, the Kindles and everything else.
Microsoft, for example, for a long time, they've never made an acquisition. And now, they [do]. Obviously, Skype [Technologies], Avenue A [/Razorfish], Yammer, that have changed that. JASON: And those seemed to work really well. Skype seems to be flourishing. Yammer seems to be flourishing. I mean, it seems to be a pretty good strategy. CHRIS: Yeah.
Microsoft is trying to pay their way into it. Like, they're, you know, paying developers and things, but it's tough, I mean.
And look, if you think about, Microsoft isn't even in this game. And mobile, like, for Microsoft to not be in the game... Like, for a search company, to be crushing the biggest OS company is pretty remarkable, right?
typically, historically, probably, two companies survive. So you've got five companies with hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap and cash. uh... All of them are, like, directly colliding, and two will survive.
so that like Microsoft, Apple, Google, uh... Amazon, and, probably, Samsung, is um... [that] they seem to be moving to a model, where they want to control kind of a whole vertical stack
the only thing they are still going to do like physically is that you are going to do showrooms ... you go to check out the new Apple thing, like 'high-touch' stuff.
I love Apple, you know. All I own are Apple devices and I've always loved them, but that stuff is just terrible.
I don't even use iCloud. I just find it such a mess.
companies like Apple, who have said 'No.' They rarely do acquisitions, right? ... And the question is, now, they're ... in a different strategic point, and they don't have Steve Jobs ... will they be forced to sort of change their attitude toward that?
Apple Maps came out, and then Google had a choice, 'Do they release Maps for the iOS or do they not.' ... The Apple Maps did not work.
I hear more and more sort of chatter from smart friends that like the hardware as good or even, possibly, better.
these markets, if you believe in the Clayton M. Christensen's theory... the less vertically integrated guys are able to compete just as well. And over time, those people will eventually win
at some point, the iPhone and the iPad will sort of run their course, but they'll be... the competition will be good enough.
I know, it's no good. And frankly, iTunes and all of that [is no good]. They did a good job in the media deals, but no one likes the software. And, like, I have an Apple TV and it always... the downloads don't... it's not reliable, like, in the way that like Dropbox is or something. And so, that's always been their Achilles' heel.
But they've had this Achilles' heel of web services and data services. I would put Maps in the data services versus their search or other things. And iCloud and all this stuff...
They are an amazing company. They are, I think, the most innovative company in technology in the last thirty years.
for a search company, to be crushing the biggest OS company is pretty remarkable
at some point, presumably, they're going to figure out [that] they have to acquire for that.
Apple is amazing company, but they've always been weak at web services and data services.
And if you look at these markets, typically, historically, probably, two companies survive. So you've got five companies with hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap and cash. uh... All of them are, like, directly colliding, and two will survive.
I think Apple proved the vertical model was vastly superior
I tend to think they are both great companies... I wouldn't, probably, short Google. I think they're both really powerful and will do well.
Larry Page, back at Google, also has it too. You know that's important.
Maybe, that's that Google's strategy. It seems that the strategy is just sort of, like, to have people care about the apps, and not the OS.
when Apple Maps came out, and then Google had a choice, "Do they release Maps for the iOS or do they not." ... They decided to go for that
Or is it Google making money on advertising and subsidizing the OS?
whoever has the developers wins. ... The only people, who have that and probably have a shot at it, are Android and iOS.
for a search company, to be crushing the biggest OS company is pretty remarkable
they begin to design well. Like, the Maps app and all these other things are just like super well done.
Did you remember when they bought Android in 2004? ... Everyone was like head-scratching. Look how visionary these guys are!
the amazing thing is, when they are doing all this, sort of, like, you know, core business stuff so well, but they are also doing all this crazy interesting futuristic stuff. The cars, the glasses, you know, and mobile.
their core business on advertising, just more, they're effectively... you know, they're completely dominant on that. You know. The search, all that stuff. I think they... People report seventy-five percent share, it's really ninety something percent.
Google is executing so incredibly well.
I think Apple proved the vertical model was vastly superior and, now, Google, of course, bought Motorola, and, you know, Amazon's making their own tablets, and, you know, everyone's going to move into all these different... It looks like everyone's moving into doing all these different things.
It's like, if I need like, toothpick or whatever. It's like, 'Go to Amazon Prime and it's there.' It's awesome.
The only thing they are still going to do like physically is that you are going to do showrooms, right?
the e-commerce is still only eight percent of commerce. It's shockingly low. That number is going to go to thirty or forty.
And Amazon, I tend to think, will eat more out of offline commerce, than it will Google.
they're able to use that, to subsidize, you know, the Kindles and everything else.
I think, their commerce position is just, you know, very very strong.
And, importantly, they still have their founder-CEO visionary, right? He's like running it.
So you've got five companies with hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap and cash. ... All of them are, like, directly colliding, and two will survive.
Amazon’s making their own tablets
Microsoft, Apple, Google, uh... Amazon, and, probably, Samsung, is umů [that] they seem to be moving to a model, where they want to control kind of a whole vertical stack
YouTube's a phenomenal company, but, like, I remember I had friends who were investors in, like, Revver and they were, like, immediately taking down copyrighted content and YouTube was just, like, a little bit more, like, hey, look the other way and who won, right?
I love Twitter. I use it all the time. I have friends there that work there, et cetera, et cetera. I think micromessaging should be an open protocol. Right. I think it's too important to be controlled.