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Anthropic is targeting a ginormous unprecedented valuation of two trillion growing violently, not uh growing slowly.
ARR estimates range from 70 billion, which basically be flat since July, which is a bad sign, to over a hundred billion. So there is some hand ringing about what numbers are correct here. They did not disclose this numbers. These are just secondhand estimates by investors who might be a little leaky.
They also said they are free cash flow positive. Adjusted gross margin 85% adjusted operating margin 11%.
we still have the data Q3 free revenue $16.8 billion. Think about that, gentlemen. Over $5 billion a month already for anthropic net revenue retention was 900%. That means customers spent nine times more than last year. Pretty good, huh?
Anthropic is planning on going public around Thanksgiving. Poly market says now 74% chance they go public this year down from 95% in early September
I don't think for sure with respect to the anthropic and the open AI IPOs I think my belief is those are going to be fine
it's obviously unclear what you chat GPT or anthropic or Google or whoever will, you know, where they will sort of extend their products.
I don't think the revenue growth is surprising. I think everyone understands how fast it's growing, but I think they've done a tremendous job on the gross margin. I think the massive improvement in gross margin is notable.
if Tesla had one cruise level incident, it would be a winter for 12 to 18 months.
I do think they should be matching their comms to, to those internal desires because clearly they don't actually intend to, or they're hitting some type of roadblock. They don't intend to go as fast as what their public statements, uh, have laid out.
I bought a brand new Tesla and was, uh, astounded by how good the FSD quality was even at that point. And kind of had the epiphany that if this technology continues at the rate that it's, uh, improving, then this is clearly a general purpose technology that's going to change the world. And if that's true, then what we need to see is pretty significant and steady progress, similar to the world of LLMs, uh, in order for, for, for, for this epiphany to become true. And so we've bet, you know, a pre
if Tesla were to have any significant issue when it comes to autonomy in particular Waymo, except for Nathan, wouldn't Nathan then get like 10 times as much business? No, the industry, the industry would be paused for a very significant time and it would be a winter for this industry.
it's not taking, uh, any kind of notable market share from Uber Eats or DoorDash, I believe.
From my vantage point and, uh, a CEO of Autolane and working with these different and testing when I've tested WeRide, I've tested Zoox, I've tested Wave, I've tested, obviously Tesla, Waymo. So almost all of them. And, you know, they're all really good. They're all really good and they're all pretty close to each other. Um, so I'm very bullish on, on the progress that will continue to be made here.
I can say over the last 18 months of building auto lane, uh, if, if you looked at FSD as an example from August, 2024 until today, it's significantly better. I would even maybe say twice as good.
I came up with the idea for auto lane in August, 2024, because I bought a brand new Tesla and was, uh, astounded by how good the FSD quality was even at that point. And kind of had the epiphany that if this technology continues at the rate that it's, uh, improving, then this is clearly a general purpose technology that's going to change the world. And if that's true, then what we need to see is pretty significant and steady progress, similar to the world of LLMs, uh, in order for, for, for, for
we have a fleet, uh, at auto lane of Tesla's hardware for, and you know, we're, we're driving them all day, every day.
as goes to the Trump administration's policies with regard to Nvidia and what kind of chips we should be allowing Nvidia to ship over to China.
the other scenario is probably more likely that with like there's also the possibility with this update they just didn't know how badly it would punish yeah um eBay but I bet you they've been talking
the first scenario is I think Google and eBay have probably been talking and we just don't know it
I think it would what people are doing on YouTube so I would say overall it makes sense depending on the price of dollars here there is a price where it's not worth it
I don't necessarily see it as like this like Clash that's going to destroy like all the relationships
the Lumia looked the exact same it seems like they just stole the colors from the Lumia and the whole thing with the color of the case matches the background color of the actual desktop or the screen I mean what was this Innovative for you the 5c was it disappointing it's a throwback it's a throwback to those original like IMAX with all the different colors