Eli Lilly

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• bullish prediction Unattributed

  I was able to acquire Monjarno now from a compounding pharmacy, um, which puts it at a price of about $200 a month. I think it's unbelievably affordable and there's more to come because, uh, there are significant investment being put in this. I do think this is going to solve the obesity problem in the world.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  So I think if you think, look at Eli Lilly, um, they did more than $5 billion in revenue last year with GLP ones. And to quote the journal, these drugs are quote on the way to becoming some of the best selling pharmaceuticals of all time. I would scratch out the, uh, some of the, and just say best sellings. I think we're going to end up there and for business heads out there, Eli Lilly stock has risen 50% in the last year, a hundred percent in the last 12 months.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I do want to talk about Eli Lilly because you and I have been watching this GLP one phenomena for a couple of years now. And the growth of these drugs has been simply amazing.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Eli Lilly and then Novo Nordisk. If you don't know these two companies, they are big in the GLP one game

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  We're building the largest API site in the history of the United States in Indiana.

• bullish assessment Dave Ricks

  we launched at a 20% discount to Nova's product, even though we have better efficacy data and we've only cut the price since then. And I think, we see a kind of a generational opportunity for the company to both be, have the best product. So efficacy and quality, but also mass production. And that requires a pricing strategy consistent with that.

• bullish prediction Dave Ricks

  this medicine could augment 100, 200 adult diseases in a meaningful way.

• bullish assessment Dave Ricks

  the pressure is a privilege in a way it means we made something useful enough that a lot of people need it and want it. And now our job is to work with, you know, the healthcare system to sustainably adopt it.

• bullish prediction Dave Ricks

  Net pricing, uh, for us, you know, is going to be something like three, $4,000 a year in the steady state per person. But I think we'll create more value than that. We'll save the system more money than that per year per user.

• bullish assessment Dave Ricks

  this is a very long investment cycle business. Um, as we talked about earlier, like we launched the first GOP one drug in the world in 2005. And since that time we've been working for, you know, this kind of performance because we took risk against that idea, right. And refined it and worked that problem. And that it, you know, I think that time scale is hard for people to think about, but also, you know, the dollar scale of the R and D this year, we'll spend over $11 billion on R and D, which i

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  in the last quarter, um, you did, uh, 11 billion in revenue and generated, um, 3 billion net profit. I think it's 3.7 of, of operating profit.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  Yeah. Well, I mean, here's your stock price. So Eli Lilly stock, I think may outperform.

• bullish prediction Dave Ricks

  it's called orforglupron. It's a, it's a chemical drug. So here, not an amino acid, but, uh, organic chemistry that mimics, that mimics the activating, uh, part of the peptide. Um, and so it's, uh, it's an oral GLP one, um, in our hands it it's about as good as, as high dose semaglutide. And, um, we're, we're doing phase three right now. Um, so that will start to read out next year. The benefit of this is one it's oral. So it's a little easier to take, you don't have to refrigerate, you don't ha

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  The, the physiology of GOP one and GIP right now, that's not how it works, right? If, if you don't have them on board, your body res, restores itself to its previous position. We, there is a theory that if you sustain low body weight for long enough, you can kind of reset your thermostat in a way and your body will stop trying to defend what it perceives as a starvation state, which is you, you're not carrying as much weight as you normally would. But, you know, we haven't had these drugs around

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  We have a, a savings card program that's about $600 per month. And then we also just launched in the lowest two doses, uh, a vial form, which is a little easier for us to make. We can get into the supply issues here, uh, maybe in this discussion too. And that's, um, $399, uh, basically and $550 for those two doses. So almost, you know, 60% off.

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  back in January, we launched what we call Lilly Direct. So people can go to their doctor or use our telehealth platform. We have a bunch of partners who will see you as a physician and they're obesity specialists, and they'll send the prescription to Lilly and we'll fulfill it directly via mail, DTC. This solves two problems. One is people can go to a place where they're not stigmatized for being overweight and two, they always get it at the same price and it's the lowest price available to them

• bullish prediction Dave Ricks

  So right now about 50% of the employer-sponsored insurance plans cover it. ... I think in five years, we'll look back and we'll say that was crazy.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  I was actually in a big investor of mine's office a few weeks back, and they said, oh, the last company in here was a reinsurance company, and they're changing their actuarial tables for people who are on these drugs

• bullish prediction Dave Ricks

  What we see today with whether it be Lily's products in this category or Novo's is really broad acceptance of by insurance and healthcare practitioners in treating outright diseases like diabetes, type two diabetes. And I think like these cardiovascular conditions we're studying, I think they'll be adopted quickly and reimbursed quickly.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  we just read that study out with Manjaro, which showed that three years on our drug, 94% fewer new diagnosis of outright diabetes.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  Currently, Lily has 105 studies going with trisepatide in these other diseases. So this is a massive, massive undertaking, you know, a clinical trial like that takes a hundred or $200 million each. So you can do the math. It's a, it's a huge bet that we can convert weight loss into sustained health benefit in chronic disease.

• bullish assessment Dave Ricks

  this category of medicine's undefeated. We've never had an unsuccessful study in measuring an outcome in a chronic disease.

• bullish prediction Dave Ricks

  next up is there's amylin based drugs. That's another gut hormone, and glucagon, another one. So we, we've got a triple acting and all kinds of different ones coming.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  we've combined that in trisepatide

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  we followed that with our latest one, terzepatide, which is known as Manjaro.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  It was actually Lilly that launched the first GLP one drug called Exendatide... Lilly, uh, made a once a week form called Dula Glutide, which is now marketed as Trulicity.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  And then interestingly, you've got the mood anxiety pieces here. And there's an interesting study done by Epic, you know, they're the big health record company, which is retrospective and not tightly controlled, but it showed people on GLP one drugs, incretins had remarkably lower rates of new clinical depression diagnoses, which is an interesting thing as well.

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  there's a Danish company, Novo, who's our competitor in this space.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  we had partnered with Genentech to do another first, which is create the first biotechnology product on planet earth, which was human insulin made in a, in a bacterial cell.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  we were the first company period.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  Lilly had a market cap of just $70 billion, following a year of $22 billion in revenue and three and a half in operating income. And today, Lilly's market cap is an astounding $878 billion. And the company's projected to do $46 billion in revenue and $15 billion in operating income this year.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  which is the world's most valuable pharmaceutical company and the leader in the GLP one drug market

• bullish endorsement Demis Hassabis

  we have great partnerships with Eli Lilly. I think you had the CEO speaking earlier, and Novartis, which are fantastic, and I think we'll be entering sort of preclinical phase sometime next year.

• neutral fact_claim Eli Lilly CEO

  Part of what we try to do is allocate capital into spaces where there are no drugs, hoping, you know, to hit the dartboard where there isn't a competitor. That's how we got obesity drugs. We're working on that.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  We actually owned a PBM in the 90s.

• bullish assessment Unattributed

  I think it's a huge plus, I would say. And I do do it myself. I also do it just to see what the different models are producing about our drugs. Yeah. It's like an audit. But mostly it's accurate. And it's gotten better over the last two years, I'd say substantially better.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  By the way, more than half of our consumer spending to reach consumers is not on TV.

• mixed assessment Unattributed

  It does, unfortunately. That's why people keep doing it. Of course, the productivity of that is debased when your competitor does it. But then everyone wants to go up above the next one. Prisoner's dilemma. Yeah. A little bit. So I would be for a system where that got reduced.

• neutral fact_claim Unattributed

  We don't make vaccines, but at least recently we haven't.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  I think we're going to get to a point where taking pretty low doses for most people, say, over 60, 58. Do you have... It's not a terrible idea. And it may help you live longer.

• bullish prediction Unattributed

  So we are now, right now, starting studies in bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder along with these addictive hedonic pathways where you're sort of self-medicating with a new GLP-1, a different one that probably has a little less weight loss, but a little more brain activity. Really? So dialed in for these uses. So we'll get that drug in three or four years if it works. And I think it could really change some of these terrible mental health conditions.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  And there were pretty dramatic reductions for those that were using GLP-1s who had diabetes.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  When we started doing these studies at scale, it was immediately obvious people stopped smoking. Like a lot of people stopped smoking.

• bullish fact_claim Unattributed

  So we did that with Manjaro and showed a 93% reduction in conversion from pre-diabetes.

• neutral fact_claim David Ricks

  We're doing a deal about every two weeks. Most of them are smallish.

• bullish fact_claim David Ricks

  We've committed with President Trump to build all that in the U.S. We're currently constructing six plants. We're going to announce four more in the next six months. We're hoping to be able to announce one today, but they'll come in a few weeks. So, yeah, this is creating 20,000 construction jobs in this period and ultimately 5,000 or 6,000 manufacturing jobs. And so we'll become a net exporter at scale for these. And unless some Chinese state-owned enterprise gets in this business, it'll be ver

• neutral fact_claim David Ricks

  So first priority, invest in organic R&D. Secondly, build out the supply chain. What's different about Manjaro and the follow-on drugs is they're injectable drugs. These are very capital intensive, technically difficult things to scale.

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  We're betting a lot on organic R&D build out. We currently have about 4,200 PhD scientists at Lilly. By the way, it's about the same as MIT and Harvard combined. So the scale of the science enterprise is huge.

• bullish assessment Dave Ricks

  And at Lilly, we think about our job a little differently. We want to create a solution to some other problem people have. And we think we're good at that and can uniquely do it. So we should try.

• mixed assessment Dave Ricks

  Well, I think we've had this totally asymmetric success. So what do we do with it? I think one version of it is to sort of play out the cash flow game, return to shareholders, and return at some future date, remembering that in pharma, we have no enduring franchise. Everything we make goes to zero because of the patent system. So in 2030-something, Manjaro will go to zero.

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  We spend 25% of sales on R&D. This year that'll be $14.2 billion. That has to get paid for. And we pay for it through revenue.

• neutral prediction Dave Ricks

  We've told the street, expect single-digit deflation in this category over time.

• bullish assessment Dave Ricks

  The main goal is to get it reimbursed. Why is it we pay for antihypertensive drugs that the moment you stop taking them, you have the same exact risk as before, but we don't pay for anti-obesity drugs? That makes no sense to me.

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  We're committed to bringing the pricing down. And I want to come back to the supply situation because that led to some of the compounding, but also affects pricing. You know, we've led in reducing the out-of-pocket costs from, it was originally $1,000. Now it's $499 from us. We'll push that down further with new medicines like orals.

• bullish assessment Dave Ricks

  We had to stop the study because they were losing too much weight too quickly. They were basically not eating. So scientists are like, actually, it's good news. We can tune the dose down. We can work with this. And from there, it was kind of just execution. We knew it was going to be huge.

• neutral fact_claim Dave Ricks

  I'd estimate around 20 million take prescription GLP-1s.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  $8.1 billion in revenue. Just in a quarter? Growing at 80%, yeah.

• bullish fact_claim Dave Ricks

  actually in Q2, we reported global sales, which surpassed Keytruda to becoming the best-selling drug in the world, actually the best-selling drug in the world of all time in Q2 this year.

• neutral fact_claim Dr. Mehmet Oz

  So, we agreed to those prices with the two major companies, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.