SPEAKER_00: all right everybody as you know there was a big verdict that came out today in the trump trial in new york city however it came right after we were taping so enjoy this episode and then at the end

SPEAKER_01: we'll go around the horn and get quick reaction from each of the besties on what they think of the trump guilty verdict in the new york hush money trial and a little update on the market clothes and tech stocks tanking and after hours trading stick with us man what a week i've had

SPEAKER_09: oh you have an intro i smell an intro tell us what kind of weekend you had what kind of week

SPEAKER_00: have you incredible you know i got uh yeah you know i've always been a fan of howard stern and uh his agent don buck will call me he saw the show last week this is all true and uh they said they want to start a production company so i started a production company and i've already got my first show i've signed my first show the pilot what is the show well here it is let me show you thanks for

SPEAKER_16: asking what you are witnessing is real the besties are not actors the cases are real both parties have

SPEAKER_20: agreed to settle their disputes here in our forum j cal production the rain man's court yeah it's law fair on today's show chamob guilty of first degree unbuttoning friedberg accused of plastic perjury jason appealing his grifting conviction throwing the book at felonious fauci welcome to the stand judge david sachs hot water burn baby nice that's really good it's a first show from jake

SPEAKER_26: i'm the judge then what does that make you are you like the bailiff like kind of like the host you know

SPEAKER_30: like um who's this guy who does american idol ryan seacrest i'm like gonna be the new ryan seacrest that's what they envisioned for me and that's my first spin auction so here we go

SPEAKER_01: there's a lot of news my inbox is blowing up i went over to threads to see what was going on over

SPEAKER_45: there and i got absolutely savage threads is like all the hall monitors left one school like if they took the four hall monitors from every school in the country and you put them all in one place threads is like uh zuckerberg's twitter revenge killer that he created but all the journalists and woke folks went there and then all the conspiracy theories took over x and twitter and like freedom of

SPEAKER_00: speech in one place and then the hall monitors in the other but my lord the inbound i'm getting sacks on apparently you're having a party this thursday and uh a couple of people are coming a soiree

SPEAKER_45: what's my having it's my birthday party oh yeah okay so there's a little soiree happening sacks enlighten the audience uh what are you up to we're hosting an event for president trump

SPEAKER_54: i'm sorry

SPEAKER_56: yeah we're hosting an event for the once once and future president 45 and 45 is soon to be 47.

SPEAKER_58: who's weak as i saw from your own polling data that you tweeted this morning oh god it's so dark

SPEAKER_45: it's so dark i mean the betting markets are just basically they they seem to have already made their decision the betting markets right and the betting markets they're not always right but they were wrong

SPEAKER_62: actually about hillary trump so who knows and polling historically has underestimated trump's

SPEAKER_65: support because people have been reluctant to say they're supporting him for some reason so yeah things are looking very positive for for trump right now but in any event we're hosting a uh a fundraiser for him and um he said that he wants to come on the all in pod at some point so we just need to schedule that and by the way we did this for let's not forget we did this for rfk jr he appeared on the pod we did a fundraiser for him we did it for fake ramaswamy came on the pod we

SPEAKER_71: did a fundraiser for him we did it for dean phillips yeah that's right uh chris christie came on and

SPEAKER_75: chris christie came on although i don't think we technically did a fundraiser but we would have and we've asked president biden and we have not heard back and when we say sorry sorry let me just

SPEAKER_79: let me just parse that out so first of all who's we and chamoc would you host a fundraiser for

SPEAKER_75: biden as well as trump absolutely look here's the thing i am an apolitical person who has to make a difficult decision every four years and i think most of us are like that i don't think it's so easy to wake up in the morning and say oh i'm clearly a republican or i'm clearly a democrat there's parts of both sides that appeal to me and so you have to make these reasoned decisions and then that gets even more complicated right so the most important thing for me is get as many people on in a position to tell their version of the truth so that you can see an unfiltered version of that truth and decide for yourself so i was really blown away when i heard dean phillips and bobby and

Chamath Palihapitiya: i thought there's parts of both of those platforms that i agree with there's parts that i disagree and the same thing happened when i sat down with vivek i thought that i wouldn't agree with much i ended up agreeing with a lot there's a lot of stuff that trump in hindsight again as i've said before

SPEAKER_75: that he did which was really helpful to america and one big thing which had he done frankly sets up our children which is these hundred year bonds and defraying the cost of all of this indebtedness far out into the future so there's many things and i think there's things that biden has done that i think we'll look back and say those were good things that he did and then there are things in

Chamath Palihapitiya: the future or today that i think that we could disagree with as well so the point is i would like this place to be a place where impartiality rules where we can be on all sides of an issue and just decide what makes the most sense after looking at the facts and i would like four years from now every major political candidate for president to look at all in as the first place and i think if we can earn that trust and have the integrity to allow all sides to tell a fair story that is going to be a really powerful thing and an artifact to leave behind for people well in fact rfk believes that

SPEAKER_88: we shot him out of a cannon is i think what he said or something and that that we got the sort of

SPEAKER_90: candidacy going vivek i think also kind of debuted here in a major way to be clear all in is in hosting the fundraiser sex you and chamath are i'm not donating i'm not going freeberg you're not

SPEAKER_91: donating i don't know if you're going or not i think you told me you're not going you're not donating

SPEAKER_93: or going got it okay you wave to sand um and so i don't know look donating to local candidate is a

SPEAKER_68: individual choice that each person's gonna have to decide if they want to do it right as americans we can do that yeah if you're willing to open your pocketbook which i know jason's not something

SPEAKER_98: that you're inclined to do very often i mean i i don't i'm not like big into politics and the idea

SPEAKER_45: of giving money to politicians to me not my thing you know i have i'd rather invest in the next startup to be totally honest if i'm gonna put 50k towards something or god forbid 250k for me i'll put that in a startup that's what i like to do but you know everybody's different and you know for the people who are asking me to not be friends with sax anymore i'm gonna be friends with sax forever

SPEAKER_102: we love each other we're besties and he can have a different opinion than me i i'm getting totally

SPEAKER_45: absolutely crucified that i'm supporting trump and how could i be friends with sex go yourself sax is my friend we can have a difference of opinion on some topics good for you deal with that

SPEAKER_79: is good for you sorry i'll just say i've heard the same thing and i told friends and others that

SPEAKER_107: have reached out why are you associating yourself with people that are doing a fundraiser for trump and i said exactly because i think it's really important that people can have different political interests different points of view different beliefs and still be friends and still have a conversation if we can model that in any way i think it moves the needle because this whole thing where you only speak with only hang out with only talk to only have dinner with people that you agree with i think is exactly what got us in the mess that we're in today people need to have a broader perspective so well said and i said and i'll support you guys with whatever in terms of like being your friends i'm not going to ever judge you guys in terms of what you believe in or choose to do

SPEAKER_75: we've said this before but you know in the end what do you have you have your family you have your children you have your friends and hopefully you have work that gives you some purpose and in all of that if there are random people that are judging you for one thing they'll eventually judge you for another thing and that is not a path to any sort of contentment i've donated to bobby kennedy i've

Chamath Palihapitiya: donated to the democrats massively and i'll donate to donald trump and if there's an opportunity to talk to president biden and really understand where he's at i donate to him as well and so the point is that i would like to be an organizing principle and i would like to replace

SPEAKER_75: today the places that i don't trust to organize and give unfiltered access to knowledge and those things are the mainstream media and so i'm willing to put my resources behind being that organizing principle and i think having a broad cross-section of friends who have different political beliefs is actually a useful thing for a lot of these candidates because as it turns out most people are sort of in the middle and most people in any given election can be persuaded one way or the other so the most important thing that we could do is get all of them give all of them an opportunity to really tell an unfiltered version of their truth and then let the chips fall where they may that is the right thing to do for america that's what democracy means so this kind of like cajoling and bullying in either side i find really distasteful and i find very immature

SPEAKER_53: yeah it's not gonna work what's amazing is i mean i really haven't gotten any blowback you know

SPEAKER_65: there's a question about people ask me have you gotten blowback from this thing and no not really i mean other than the reporter knocking on my door and that kind of stuff but people really same it hasn't really created blowback and i think you guys are getting more blowback and that's an indication of just sort of the cowardly response to it which is you know it's like a cancellation tactic we're gonna try and like go behind your back and ostracize you instead of even telling you to your face what you think and i think the reason why they're doing that is because quite frankly there's a lot of preference falsification going on in silicon valley i know there's a lot of people in silicon valley

SPEAKER_117: well we know because we know who's coming yeah you have the list of people i mean look nobody is

SPEAKER_118: excited about okay nobody's excited about biden right now so the only question is do they hold

SPEAKER_65: their nose and vote for him or do they vote for trump or do they vote for bobby kennedy but there's a lot of people who i do think support trump and look we've ab tested this right it'd be different if we didn't have four years of biden four years of trump there's a lot of people who can look back and say that the ab test we ran indicates trump so i know there's going to be a lot of people who support trump but they don't want to admit it and i think that we have this event is going to break the ice on that and maybe it'll create a preference cascade where all of a sudden it becomes acceptable to acknowledge the truth and which is a lot of people support trump and it's not just this it's also steve schwartzman came out i think bill ackman's on the edge of coming out for trump so there's a lot of people who are now like flipping and i think it could really start to cascade on itself

Chamath Palihapitiya: i think the thing that hasn't happened yet is we haven't actually now started to talk about the contours

SPEAKER_75: of a handful of policy things where there is some deep diversion now where these candidates are diverging from each other and i think that that's going to be really interesting to see

Chamath Palihapitiya: how much people value that differentiation i'll give you an example which is president trump in the

SPEAKER_75: last few weeks has become incredibly pro-crypto now the contours of that i think we need to define right but the question is is a pro-crypto environment especially in a world where we think that there's

Chamath Palihapitiya: just going to be continued dollar debasement an important issue an unimportant issue or a thing that

SPEAKER_75: is a small issue today but that will be critical for us in 20 and 30 years to get right that's an example and there's a handful of these other things that i think that now we have a chance to really double click on where there really is some differentiation amongst the three presidential candidates and i think that's healthy as well and so it's important again get their specific thoughts on the record so that we can really figure this out and i think that over these next few

Chamath Palihapitiya: months i think it's going to be important to do that so i hope president biden also comes on the pod quite honestly and come on the power allows us to ask him the hard questions and i hope bobby comes back on actually and i think bobby will if we ask him just to tighten up where he's at now a few months

SPEAKER_64: before yeah there's definitely a lot of great follow-up questions i would love to interview trump

SPEAKER_90: i'll ask him hard questions i'll respect him as president 45 and as a candidate so for people who like or like you have trump derangement syndrome like that's just like a childish thing to say i disagree

SPEAKER_133: with his policies i'll ask him questions hey why don't you support evs like that's a valid question to ask him why is he anti-ev he said all these crazy things about evs and then apparently he's

SPEAKER_45: courting you on privately i don't know if that's true or not but you know there's there's hard questions and i'm sure he'll answer them and he's more than capable of doing i'm excited for me i'm really

SPEAKER_88: excited for president trump to come on the podcast and for me i'll be totally honest i think the democrats have to wake up for a second and just like take the temperature of the room like read the room democrats you have put up a candidate that nobody wants his policies on the border and some other issues are not you know in sync with the majority of the country at some point the democrats

SPEAKER_136: just have to take a deep look in the mirror james carvel is doing it a bunch of them are doing and say we feel that a bad candidate who's too old and people don't believe will stand up to scrutiny of like say being on the all-in pot for two hours or in the debates or with a hostile interview or any

SPEAKER_88: of those possibilities and so i think if that's the case we really need to have the democrats think deeply about maybe fielding a different candidate i believe that's what's going to happen in the next

SPEAKER_138: 30 to 60 days so i'm predicting there's gonna be a switcheroo 100 i mean if you just really think

SPEAKER_90: there's a switcheroo 100 there'll be a switcheroo who's the switcheroo i have no idea could be gavin it could be anybody anything's possible i think trump's going to demolish him in the debate i think

SPEAKER_88: he'll sink to 30 in the in the polls and then the republicans are going to find i'm sorry the democrats will find a way to give him a graceful out and then they'll field somebody else when's the

SPEAKER_141: first debate june 17th can i respond to that jason i saw your tweet basically saying something very

SPEAKER_65: similar that democrats need to wake up and you know recognize the situation they're in i think this is a case of once you've made your bed you have to sleep in it look the democrats have set the table pursuing certain policies for the last three and a half years we've had an open border we had so much spending that it fed into this inflation which jacked up interest rates we had ukraine become the central obsession and focus of our politics which blew up in biden's face with the whole summer counter-offensive i mean i could go on you have the hostility to crypto which they're now trying to desperately backpedal on but you had three years of elizabeth warren and gensler basically making crypto the enemy and now all of a sudden we're at first and go at that like 10 yard line and you're

David Sacks: all of a sudden saying well just read the room and make all these changes you can't you know i don't think people are going to be fooled by that we've a b tested this thing we've had three and a half years of biden four years of trump who do you like better and we're what how many months are we from

SPEAKER_124: pulling the lever five months never too late i'm telling him to do it don't take sax's advice he is

SPEAKER_30: a hardcore person who wants to win desperately take jay cal's advice field another candidate the worst thing the republicans could ever deal with is a great candidate who can speak and who's nimble on their feet

SPEAKER_00: because i think people are looking for a choice that's not these two individuals i'm not going to say i'm anti-trump i'm not going to say i'm anti why don't you support bobby kennedy then i don't think he's going to have the platform behind him to get enough votes i think the democrats need to immediately this month in june do the switcheroo and if they do i think they win in the landscape

SPEAKER_65: they had their chance they had their chance they could have gone for bobby they drove bobby out of the party that's not he didn't start he didn't start as independent he started i know by his last name a democrat kennedy democrat you had dean phillips yeah dean phillips took the chance yeah and of course

SPEAKER_147: he was pushed out not of the party but basically ostracized they had their chance i think you know

SPEAKER_00: if i want to be a strategist this is just a conspiracy theory i don't want to go to like

SPEAKER_133: chin foil hat corner i think the democrats as cynical as it sounds we're waiting to see what happens with this trump trials conviction what you call law fair what other people call fair use of

SPEAKER_88: the law and then they are going to see how he does in the debates that's why they moved the debate up in june and i think they know to pull the plug on this if it gets too far gone and they have the ability to do that because all he's got to say is you know what i i'm i'm feeling old and i want us to

SPEAKER_148: win and i'm going to slot somebody else in but listen let's go get to this yeah i mean let me translate

SPEAKER_65: what you just said which is the democrats hope to put trump in jail using lawfare and when that fails they realize that they're going to lose the election to him and they've got a big problem

David Sacks: so they're going to try some desperate strategy to find a new candidate but it's way too late for that

SPEAKER_151: i think precisely thank you for repeating back to me and i think the only disagreement we might have

SPEAKER_133: there is i would agree like there's lawfare in two of the cases and i think two of the cases

SPEAKER_45: i think are should be pursued but you know we can intelligent people as we said at the start of this can agree to disagree about it and i think you should all take if you're a listener to this podcast you're smart if you're here you're smart you're not listening to two-hour podcasts with us

SPEAKER_01: going this deep on issues if you're not a brilliant smart and attractive individual so let's get to the

SPEAKER_90: docket and present yes that's what i just said he heard brilliant and attractive and he was here all

SPEAKER_88: right listen i i hate to go into another um controversial topic but the four of us were all on fire about this apparently the uh covet 19 investigation is leaning towards a massive cover-up there's a subcommittee going on right now the world's not paying attention to this but i think some savvy people are especially over on x there's a lot of great journalists who are doing incredible investigative work let me just catch everybody up in the audience real quick here and get the besties involved over the past year and a half house subcommittee uh has been focused on the origins of

SPEAKER_138: covid 19 and they've been investigating the nih's ties with gain-of-function research in wuhan the

SPEAKER_133: subcommittee was painted early on it's like this is angry republicans this is about mask mandates it was like highly politicized but it's actually turned out to be very effective bipartisan investigation we'll

SPEAKER_138: get on we'll get in on that in a minute but so far most of the investigation is focused on nailing down this timeline of communication between nih officials and an organization called eco health alliance this is a non-profit that's focused on infectious disease research now these uh committee videos are online we'll

SPEAKER_01: play you play on in a moment but through funding in the nih the uh eco health organization was awarded research grants to various labs this included the wuhan institute of virology the the infamous one

SPEAKER_00: eco health violated terms of its grants by failing to report that gain-of-function experiments were

SPEAKER_01: being conducted in wuhan eco health was supposed to report any experiment that exhibited characteristics leading it to being 10 times more infectious but when that happened it failed to disclose this research to the nih and on may 17th a deputy director of the nih acknowledged that the agency funded gain of function research in wuhan via eco health this is the key because fauci initially denied this during his 2021 senate hearing fauci said quote i totally resent the lie you are now propagating in

SPEAKER_133: response to questions from rand paul about the lab leak theory so fauci either didn't know or he lied under oath let me pause there for a second there's a lot more to the story but when you hear this sort

SPEAKER_01: of setup friedberg our sultan of science in this uh initial setup what rings uh concerning to you true to

SPEAKER_90: you and then we'll go on and play some clips of this testimony which is pretty wild i don't think

SPEAKER_160: that pre the emergence of the pandemic that there was nefarious motives in other words their funding

SPEAKER_00: of this was not done to create a pandemic it might have been a mistake in hindsight but yeah for many

SPEAKER_107: years particularly following the original sars pandemic there was a lot of conversations around how do we get in front of the next pandemic how do we figure out what's coming and how do we prepare for it and there was a lot of research that was launched to try and resolve that key question this is like the movie 12 monkeys you guys ever see that movie i think at one point yeah sure it's like does the effort to try and stop the problem cause the problem i think that for for my point of view there's a very high probability that there was some leak that meant that the work that was going on to try and get in front of the next pandemic and understand what we could do to prepare ourselves and when vaccines can be developed and so on actually led to the pandemic so then when that happens how do you respond when you're sitting in that seat that's that's the key question that i think this committee

SPEAKER_134: is uncovering do you think there was a cover-up freebrick what is your intuition on that yeah i think

SPEAKER_107: that these guys definitely didn't want i think what they were trying to do was prevent that from being the focal point and protect their own asses at the same time do you think they should go to jail i don't know the extent of it yet it'd be good to get more information from this yeah so let me queue up those next details because i will say this guy that gave testimony last week where he was like deliberately changing the names of people in the email anderson and he put the dollar sign so that you couldn't find that email when you did a foyer search he knew what he was doing he knew

SPEAKER_62: yes i don't understand how you could say this wasn't nefarious this whole thing was nefarious from top

SPEAKER_133: to bottom well yeah let me cue this up here sax and then get your why are you exonerating it hold on let me cue it up all right so we started to see some uh consequences and accountability last week the u.s department of health cut all funding to ecohealth in response to the committee's investigation they disbarred its president peter dasik does it cam does it and so we don't have

SPEAKER_01: direct evidence to be clear that the pandemic was the result of a lab leak and you know just even saying

SPEAKER_118: the lab we would have gotten this the fear and cleavage site makes it clear that this was a lab

SPEAKER_65: leak that's not a naturally occurring virus the fear and cleavage sites were engineered let's go to

SPEAKER_45: that in just one second and thankfully this isn't going to get our youtube channel shut down because we

SPEAKER_01: have freedom to speech back a little bit but this is where it gets really interesting emails were written as ecohealth with a tilde that's that little squiggly line uh instead of an o and uh they would spell

SPEAKER_133: anderson uh with a dollar sign in the e christian anderson in this example is a biologist who was reportedly awarded 9 million in grants from the nih two months after publishing a paper claiming didn't

SPEAKER_01: covet did not come from a lab and so let's get to some of these clips here's a clip of fauci's former top advisor david morin's getting grilled in the hearing and i'll play two clips and then i'll give

SPEAKER_177: it to you on october 25th 2021 another scientist wrote quote david is concerned about the privacy of text and other messages from his cell phone to you and me because he has been using a government phone this came from tony in quote sir did you ever have any conversations with dr fauci regarding using personal phone or email to communicate with dr dasik i don't remember it it's possible you know i probably wouldn't have remembered and i don't remember it on january 18th you testified that you did not have any conversations with dr fauci regarding ecohealth on october 25th 2021 you wrote quote peter from tony's numerous recent comments to me they're trying to protect you in quote you meaning ecohealth and dr dasik dr brands did you ever have any conversations with dr fauci regarding

SPEAKER_183: ecohealth well the ones you just mentioned i don't have any recollection of that no recollection

SPEAKER_90: no recollection no all right so we're on the no recollection train and then i'll give this final clip

SPEAKER_01: here this is unbelievable sax apparently there's a foil later lady freedom of information act lady

SPEAKER_30: working at nih to train and help and mentor people on how to avoid having their communications these

SPEAKER_185: are people who we work who work for us and she's the foil lady at nih play the clip nick and as you've

SPEAKER_177: said you previously testified that you did not delete any federal records but on february 24th 2021 you wrote quote i learned from our foyer lady here how to make emails disappear after i'm foiled but before the search starts so i think we are all safe plus i deleted most of those earlier emails after sending them to gmail in quote and the next day on february 25th 2021 you wrote quote but i learned the tricks last year from an old friend marge moore who heads our foyer office and also hates foyers in quote yes or no is marge moore the foyer lady you're referring to she was at the time i believe she's retired since then did the nih foyer office instruct you on how to delete emails or avoid foyer no all right sex there's

SPEAKER_188: your red meat smoking guns everywhere what do you think please give me a couple of minutes to kind

SPEAKER_65: of lay out what what happened here okay so fauci knew very early as early as february 1st of 2020 that covet came from a lab leak the scientists said so all they had to do was look under a microscope and see the furin cleavage site which is not naturally occurring it's something that was added basically bioengineered to the virus in order to make it more transmissible in humans so they knew right away that this somehow came from a lab leak and fauci and collins said in emails that they were going to begin a brutal takedown in order to conceal this fundamental truth of the lab leak from the public now why would

David Sacks: fauci need to conceal this because he had funded gain of function research programs via peter dasik and the eco health alliance to conduct again gain of function research at the wuhan institute of virology moreover fauci was personally responsible for reversing an obama era decision to prohibit gain of function research because it was so risky fauci wrote op-eds justifying gain of function research he wrote a paper in 2012 which was actually quite candid about the risks of gain of function he describes the kind of lab leak that could occur in the type of virus that could escape from a lab because of gain of function but then he says that it's a risk worth taking so this is somebody who funded the wuhan lab he funded gain of function research he was personally responsible for lifting the ban on gain of function research he had a lot of reasons to want to hide the fact that covid was engineered in a lab and was lab leak and so we know that even before this conspiracy to basically defraud the foyer request that fauci had done things like organize that letter to the lancet which smeared and demonized scientists who were trying to tell the truth saying that the so-called zoological theory was

SPEAKER_65: nonsense this had to be from the lab he was doing things like this and now we have this added piece

David Sacks: which is this long-time colleague of fauci and collins at nih dr david morenz developed a strategy for evading foyer requests that would expose the truth he did this by deleting government emails which is a crime by using private email to conduct government business which is also a crime and then strategically misspelling names and titles to frustrate the foyer searches and then the craziest part is that moran's foolishly detailed his schemes in emails that fauci would have seen that fauci was on the distribution list stuff so he has no plausible deniability it's literally like they're like here's how we can avoid getting caught in an email you have to see the foyer piece within the overall picture here which is yeah fauci from the gecko was lying about the origins of covet in order to cover up his role in funding funding this type of research yes and there was a comprehensive effort by people at nih likely at fauci's direction to again not just cover this up but to smear scientists they went on the offensive in addition to trying to cover their their assets yeah people like jay

SPEAKER_200: bonacharya who then got banned censored and banned on social media okay by the way who is a stanford

SPEAKER_45: professor yeah was banned for speaking up chamoff let's zoom out here and and start thinking strategy and theories of what's going on here i have my own but i'm curious to hear you as first as we go

SPEAKER_205: around the horn here what's your take on this i would like to make four points i think that kind

SPEAKER_75: of summarize my view of this i think what happened here needs a really clear accounting because the implications are far greater than i think people realize and i think why maybe the four of us have have always been tugging on this little thread is because each of us instinctively understood that so the first is if you just look at the macroeconomic consequences of what kovid did and our reaction we broke the seal of having absolutely no accountability on massive spending right so there are subsidies there are kickbacks there are government programs that now number in the trillions of dollars a year incremental to what we were going to spend if things were the status quo and the problem is that in freeburg has talked about this really eloquently in the past it's creating a massive debt issue that us and our children and our grandchildren would have to deal with if we had responded to this pandemic differently those issues would not have occurred if we had just kept the economy open because we understood what was going on we would not have reacted the way that we did and we would not have nearly as much debt as we had and we would not have made it okay for politicians to spend trillions of dollars that is a direct consequence of our reaction to kovid not kovid itself the second is we caused billions of people all around the world to take immaturely tested drugs they were called

Chamath Palihapitiya: vaccines we found out that they were modestly effective at best and then some of them were designed in some ways to manipulate our dna and we just don't know what the long-term impacts will be we see some small issues of myocarditis we see other issues of all-cause mortality but the point is we just don't know and that would not have happened had we not rushed to force people to stand in the

SPEAKER_75: line and get a jab in order to get back to their normal life that was a direct consequence not of

Chamath Palihapitiya: kovid but of a reaction the third is what we're realizing right now is that we had this power drunk apparatchik and this is similar to the quote that mike pompeo made when he took over the cia

SPEAKER_75: what he found and he said this after when he left was there were people on the top floor of the cia building the seventh floor of the pentagon that fundamentally believed that it wasn't the democrats nor the republicans that ran the country but it was them and i see a similar level of arrogance here which is this belief that they know better and so what they did was they committed the greatest sin which is where the cover-up is way greater than the crime and they created a setup where all of these things were amplified by their prestige their perceived scientific knowledge but what they were really doing was keeping critical information to themselves and then trying to cover it up jason that is so unacceptable when you think of the broad consequences of what happened and that's what needs to get documented and i do think there needs to be some form of accountability for that

SPEAKER_90: i think it's well said and you know just looking at it i think we are now at the part point of this

SPEAKER_133: conversation and investigation where you can say this is not a bipartisan this is an issue and everybody

SPEAKER_00: knew like we had these conversations on this very podcast the public knew something didn't seem right about this and if you just think about this from first principles of what occurred here just what occurred here freyberg we funded gain of research to create these super viruses that what i think

SPEAKER_30: other people could just as equally call a bio weapon with the chinese now we're supposed to be arch rivals here we're like these competitors and then when it came out and it leaked and of course i don't think it was released on purpose when it came out the people who work for us and we trust with our family safe

SPEAKER_136: safety who funded this in order to save their own reputations to cover their asses then lied about it and then like as you said sax perfectly they went on the offensive these people were not elected by anybody that's right these people work for us and they failed us this is a crime against humanity of the greatest cause people committed suicide people died because they had depression our kids lost two years of school this generation has lost their education and now we have burdened them with billions hundreds of billions of dollars in debt from this this is trillions trillions trillions tens of this is a failure of leadership it is a crime and when people said prosecute fauci they were like you're being hysterical this is ridiculous these people need to be prosecuted if you hid this stuff from a foyer request you need to go to jail this needs to be accountability here i think for what

SPEAKER_212: they did to society our children in the future i am infuriated by this imagine what happened in the

Chamath Palihapitiya: situation room or the equivalent wherever the president of the united states all these world leaders were coalescing to try to make decisions in that period they all looked at this quote unquote expert they pointed at fauci and said lead us out and so do we not think that at any point he was thinking how do i do this in a way where i have no fingerprints clearly the answer is in fact he was leading from a

SPEAKER_75: position of how will i not have any fingerprints on this and so do we did we get the best advice

Chamath Palihapitiya: on the margin i think it's pretty fair to say we could not have gotten it because he was too conflicted he was figuring out how to cover up what happened as opposed to just own it and then help the world

SPEAKER_30: get out of it yeah i mean i talk about like incinerating your entire career and legacy but putting that aside the morality of covering this up and you know so then you have to think from up this is why i was like what is the strategy what goes through somebody's mind when they decide to

SPEAKER_136: do a cover-up this level is it just fear of getting caught and their lives being in their mind ruined and they're going to do this incredible cover-up i actually think that they thought this would become a globally destabilizing moment between the united states and china and that there could be revolutions now i know that this is now sounding really conspiracy theory but if you're sitting there and you're like what if the public finds that we created this and their grandparents died from it and their kids didn't go to school because there'll be riots in the street but if enough time passes maybe there's not riots in the street but you know what this is something that is just so abhorrent

SPEAKER_78: that i mean people need to really be held accountable freeberg your thoughts what would you guys do if you're sitting in a policymaker's seat today and you're being offered by scientists this

SPEAKER_79: ability to go and figure out what the next big virus will be and start to make plans for getting in front of it by understanding the biology of these viruses by seeing where they're going to evolve to and by trying to get in front of the next pandemic so that we can protect the population do you guys support that sort of research and what are the questions you ask so let's you know rewind 15 years pretend fauci doesn't get to make those decisions you guys are the policy makers and folks say sars just happened we want to do this research we want to figure out what do you do and how do you how do you

SPEAKER_133: answer that there's a really simple there's a really simple question if anybody who's watched any kind of science fiction or knows the history of this kind of research which is don't do this in

SPEAKER_136: a population center and what how will you prevent it from breaking out like literally that's job one

SPEAKER_30: if you're going to even if you're not going to like literally every science fiction film it's so has this it's like put it on an island and there's an island off long island where they keep these things i forgot the name of it is plum island or something we'll look it up yeah and by the way

SPEAKER_65: there there are internal nih emails that suggest that covet leaked from a level 2 facility they call it bsl2 which does not operate with the top level biohazard safeguards so they knew the wuhan lab was not at the level of safeguards that it should have been but look i would go deeper and say that why would you do this kind of research at all i mean you are deliberately manipulating viruses in order to make them transmissible in humans this was a bat virus that was not transmissible to humans it was

SPEAKER_58: bioengineered they had the furin cleavage site to allow it to gain access to human cells yeah so

SPEAKER_79: sax i am going to push back because that is not conclusively true what you're saying is something that some people have claimed but there are other scientists including papers published recently in the lancet and other like pretty reputable like medical journals and research journals that indicate

SPEAKER_107: that the evolution seen in the furin cleavage site can be traced back to an evolutionary origin not necessarily to a human engineered origin so i want to just make that clear that that is a

SPEAKER_79: possibility okay i'm not dismissing it but i'm not supporting the other side i'm saying we have

SPEAKER_147: work to do to figure this out okay just to be clear it's a possibility that's so remote i mean look

SPEAKER_65: i i heard professor jeffrey sachs talking about this in a recent interview and he went through the whole history he said there's like 200 of these coronaviruses in this like class or category and there's not one furin cleavage site among any of them so right can you say that there's not a one

SPEAKER_118: well so so let's go back to my chance of it happening naturally i guess but it's a very very

SPEAKER_00: very low probability event let me punch up your question freeberg because if you know if your

SPEAKER_79: question is what should you do i want to ask you guys what do you do so like forget about oh there's bad guys fauci's a bad guy like what do you do to protect the world against the next pandemic

SPEAKER_65: number one you don't do this type of gain of function research number two if you are going to do it you don't do it at a level two facility like the wuhan lab number three when the virus leaks in the

David Sacks: lab you don't basically lie about and conduct a cover-up campaign that smears reputation of honest scientists number four when you're hauled into the oval office in response to this once in a century pandemic you don't pretend like you're america's doctor and you have all the answers and in fact you're

SPEAKER_136: the guy who created this problem you own it there's an idea you own it and you know what like the question really in embedded in in your question freeberg i think is is gain is there any argument to doing gain of function if so how and then is there any reason to research you know the bat dung or whatever material they get it from you know from those caves and take it out of the caves i could see the latter chamoff of like hey this existed nature you study it on an island somewhere far away

SPEAKER_172: from everybody with massive controls the gain of function seems like it literally feels like the speech from jurassic park like i think it's why would you do this and jurassic park took place on an island

SPEAKER_141: for a reason there were many scientists who are opposed to gain function research they thought it was unduly risky and didn't have offsetting benefits and that is exactly why obama banned it very good

David Sacks: decision to me this whole idea that we need to to amplify these viruses in order to find out what

SPEAKER_65: would happen if this happened naturally is insane you didn't have this drama until you created it

SPEAKER_75: yes this is nutty this is nuts go ahead there are there are examples we know i'll just point to two let's just say the attempted overthrow of the ukrainian government in 2014. you can go back to iran contra as yet another example and you can add gain of function research now which is again i'll just go back to when there are these lifelong bureaucrats that believe they're above the law that there's this sensation that they can pull the levers of power silently behind the scenes because they know better and then what they're doing as you guys said is they are controverting the desires of the people so whether you like president obama or not he's duly elected by the people and when he says this isn't allowed it shouldn't be allowed and when you instantiate chaos and wars and all of this other stuff overthrows in all of these other places that then create all these long tail effects they're not done with really america support they're done by a small group of people who think they know better and i think that we've created that kind of a problem that needs to get fixed and so i think that there this has to be an example where you can make them an example because otherwise it will keep happening and there are other parts of the american bureaucracy where people are in charge of very critical and important decisions and i suspect 99 of them are good earnest honest people doing the right thing for america but it's just the law of large numbers there will be one or two and all it takes is one or two who get drunk with that power and so unless that there's a check and balance on that dynamic we'll have more issues of this and as the world gets more sophisticated and we rely more on experts i hate to say this guys but you have to be more skeptical of experts as much as you think an

Chamath Palihapitiya: expert is an expert you have to fight the tendency of saying i'm going to abdicate all of my intellect onto you and you decide yeah i think you have to find a way of just gut checking and sac said this critical thing if i was the president of the united states in a pandemic i didn't need the covet to teach me this example but if i'm trying to solve a very technical and hard engineering problem what i always do is i bring a cross section of people in a room typically some of them have to have disagreeing opinions and i

SPEAKER_75: make them intellectually fight it out and my job is to observe and in that i apply my judgment i'm not

Chamath Palihapitiya: nearly as smart as them i'm not nearly technically as trained as them but that is a process that works and i'm just questioning it couldn't have happened here because as sac said if you basically bury the reputations of the folks that are pushing back you could never bring them inside the room in the oval and have a conversation with them and say hey jay bhattacharya give us the red team version

SPEAKER_239: of what you think is happening yeah and that is a real argument steel man the opposite side let me

SPEAKER_65: build on a point chamath made which is i think we have to ask the question what type of government do we really have you know we call ourselves a democracy but are you a democracy when the elected leaders come and go and the really powerful bureaucrats running the government running these agencies stay for decades and decades and if the president disagrees with their policy they can just wait them out fauci wanted to do gain-of-function research maybe by the way at the behest of dod we don't know could have been a bio weapon or biodefense program there's a lot more to this that we don't even know about yet in any event it's clear he was passionately committed to funding gain-of-function

David Sacks: research he just waited for his opportunity and implemented as well victoria newland in the state department passionately committed to basically bringing ukraine into nato and using that to essentially provoke a regime change operation in russia again she just had to wait for her opportunity to basically keep pushing these policies for decades these are the people who are really running the american government how would you change it we have to turn these things over

SPEAKER_212: these organizations or get rid of them we talk about term limits for politicians maybe we actually

SPEAKER_75: need to turn the limits for the administrative apparatchik that runs all these critical organizations

SPEAKER_65: right it's called the deep state right you ever hear the expression deep state sounds conspiratorial it's not it's just the permanent bureaucracy we elect a president but but how many people does

David Sacks: the president actually appoint a couple hundred you know 99.9 percent of the people running the

SPEAKER_90: government are there permanently well and then i'll just say here i want to give a shout out to the journalists katherine obon and katherine obon and emily kopp i know that people also have no faith in

SPEAKER_01: journalists these are two journalists i think you could have tremendous faith in and who are going to win bullisters because they've been doggedly pursuing this and you have to wonder why this is not the top story on the news networks and why this isn't the head of you know the new york times or the or the washington post like there needs to be much more coverage of what's going on here i don't

SPEAKER_138: understand you want to know why because yeah because the trump takes every headline yeah i don't think

SPEAKER_68: has anything to do with trump i think it's got everything to do with the fact that the new york

SPEAKER_65: times was covering for fauci fauci's been there fauci's been there for decades he is a major source for the new york times just like he was a major funder of grant programs right so there's a lot of

David Sacks: people who have developed a dependency on fauci i mean every information you think access journalism

SPEAKER_88: is what's going on here he gave them there's no question that the new york times was covering for

David Sacks: this the new york times definitely promoted the idea that anyone pushing the lab leak theory was somehow conspiracy theorist or a nut and you have to lay on top of all this sacks

SPEAKER_251: it's a political environment they were pushing that whole crazy wet market theory well the wet market

SPEAKER_74: theory the pangolin remember the pangolin we needed john stewart to dismantle the pangolin theory you know

SPEAKER_00: in relation to that these wet markets have spread massive viruses and and you know all kinds of things and they do need to be there was like a un report on like hey we have to upgrade these people have to stop to live markets that's why i don't know that it was a great cover story i think it was a logical theory to pursue to the end point of eliminating it because they around woolen there are a

SPEAKER_30: lot of these wet markets it is completely conceivable that a person who was in that lab went to a wet market and it's spread via the wet market this is why we need a full investigation folks because all these theories could come together and there are more cards to turn over which one of you alluded to like who knows what the turn in the river are going to be here like what did china know what did our government and china know maybe they are making bio weapons maybe they're doing even worse stuff that we don't know about maybe there's all kinds of rogue programs that are being that are occurring here that's why we need to keep digging and digging the american public must hold these people accountable and they need to tell us who else was involved because if fauci's involved and this guy's involved

SPEAKER_68: there's other people i want to hear from everybody there's many crazy parts of this but i think maybe

SPEAKER_65: the craziest part of the whole thing is that when the pandemic happens and the elected government of the united states the president needs to pull in the resources to manage a policy response who do they

David Sacks: pull in fauci the guy who created the problem it's kind of like when they have newland be our chief diplomat in the state department and she's fermented the coup in kiev in 2014. it's again these these

SPEAKER_65: bureaucrats are doing the exact opposite of what they're supposed to be doing they're not

SPEAKER_257: protecting ownership of this and being honest yes but i think to answer your question what do we do

David Sacks: about it i think we just got to clean out the stables here yeah i think we just got to disband some of these government departments why do we have so many this whole alphabet soup of three-letter

SPEAKER_261: agencies i think vivek gramaswamy had the right idea let's just get rid of a bunch of these things

SPEAKER_212: zero base budget the whole government start over yeah and just go right through each one like if

SPEAKER_00: and and you know what it should be a bipartisan issue but there's so much money involved this is one of the challenges in the capitalist system is there's so much money there's so much drift to go around that when something like this happens and there's an opportunity to i don't know make a vaccine and and you know put a couple of billion dollars into this light speed thing which was a great idea seemingly everybody lines up okay yeah sure we'll get involved we'll take some of that money

SPEAKER_212: yeah buy a billion shots from us president trump was really on to this because he's the one that

SPEAKER_75: really coined the term the deep state and went after it and if you think about the other side right the people that are there it must be very discomforting to hear because a lot of those people are folks that worked hard tried to go to good schools get educated and join an infrastructure to move a country forward because they believe in the country and the values sounds like a noble noble mission right but over long periods of time most people come and go and then there's a small cohort of folks that sort of end up ossifying and running the top parts of this permanent bureaucracy and i think sax is right they start to observe just the simple principle that all these folks come and go yet i'm still around president comes president goes undersecretary comes under secretary goes the secretary of this comes and then they go and so they start to believe that

SPEAKER_212: they're really in charge and that's where the deep state idea comes from at least we're in a democracy

SPEAKER_01: where these hearings are occurring i just want to give kudos to in addition to those two journalists

SPEAKER_00: to the people on this subcommittee who are doing it in a bipartisan way and they will be and they're

SPEAKER_01: being relentless i think that's the honorable thing to do i encourage them and those investigative

SPEAKER_270: journalists to be relentless and kudos to rand paul too remember when he was i mean he was in the

SPEAKER_271: courage people were like this guy's a loon no rand but to your point about what does this mean for

SPEAKER_68: our democracy i wanted to bring up the summit for article where they pulled young people and young

SPEAKER_65: voters they despair over u.s politics they describe the united states as a dying empire led by bad people after what we've learned about covet and i would argue also the whole background war is this right exactly their intuition is their intuition is right yeah from the mouths of babes i

SPEAKER_30: mean if bad is i mean if they covered this up in the way it's looking like i would call this behavior

SPEAKER_75: not bad i'd call it evil because it was premeditated and then look the point is we're supposed to have this check and balance from the media but when the media is complicit because they like to be in those halls of power that's where that's where these feelings come from i think the latest stat that i saw is i think more than 52 percent of americans now believe that the mainstream media is untrustworthy and that's a really terrible place to be which means you're basically where do you get truth you're consuming something that's just fundamentally not true i mean burn it down i mean that that's the

SPEAKER_133: conclusion any logical person would come to is just burn it down this like makes no sense that they

SPEAKER_136: would try and cover this up the right thing for found you to do is say hey listen we didn't do gain of function you know under obama we did do it here it's obviously been a mistake we need to never do it again and here's the road map to make sure that we protect people

SPEAKER_88: from the next one thank god this one didn't kill children the way it's killing old people and uh by the way this is going to crack open i encourage you all to be vocal about this and to watch on monday because dr fauci is scheduled to appear in a hearing for the same

SPEAKER_90: subcommittee and that is going to be explosive live streamed on youtube we'll put the link in the

SPEAKER_00: show notes since we're in the don't trust anybody and have your own sovereignty and we're in libertarian moment let's go to our crypto correspondent it's crypto corner with chamath

SPEAKER_100: it's part of my production company i'm not doing crypto corner with chamath that'll be next week's

SPEAKER_75: cold open i thought it would be good to talk about crypto for a couple of reasons one is because we just had the having at the end of april when this happened the halving is where just for folks that don't know the way that bitcoins are created is by solving these complex mathematical algorithms that take a lot of time and energy and and money and when you solve it you get rewarded with some number of bitcoin and roughly every four years that reward gets cut in half it's called the halving and this week i saw somebody who reminded me all of this and i just want to give this guy a proper shout out so his name is wences casaras and wences in silicon valley i would say really was agent zero of bitcoin he was the one in 2010 that introduced it to me i remember he reminded me of the story actually we were at orange hummus

Chamath Palihapitiya: and he's like he's argentinian he's a great so i'm going to try to copy he's like you have to buy

SPEAKER_75: the bitcoin so i heard the story i fell in love with it i remember i called my family office i'm like buy me a million of these things and he was like or a million dollars worth and he was like are you crazy and i was like no there's just a little appetizer we'll get to the main main course anyways he has done a phenomenal job of understanding and proselytizing bitcoin i want to thank him because

Chamath Palihapitiya: he really put me onto this but he mentioned something to me when i saw him a couple days ago which is you should really look at the pattern of bitcoin after a having and so i was really curious

SPEAKER_75: and so i had a guy on my team quinton put this together so nick let me just let's go to the first page so why is this interesting so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and i asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having three months six months nine months 12 months and

Chamath Palihapitiya: 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what i would say is happens in the first month and

SPEAKER_75: roughly what also happens in the first three months but then within six months to a year and 18 months of

Chamath Palihapitiya: these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first halving the bitcoin price returned 45x after the second

SPEAKER_75: halving it returned almost 28x and after this third halving it returned almost an 8x which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time if you go to the next page and so if you if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these

Chamath Palihapitiya: having cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation obviously the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024 which is these etfs are really going to allow bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its

SPEAKER_75: sort of central key moment right and so if you apply the averages and again these are just averages they're by no means predictions okay so i just want to qualify that this is not financial advice it's not financial advice these are just guesses we took these and we applied it to the price of bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to oh so you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle two and three and what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation and when i talked to wences about this how he explained it which i which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at bitcoin credibly even if they support it the us may be one of those but there is an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they

Chamath Palihapitiya: will look at bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like btc and i think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional

SPEAKER_75: utility for hard assets and i think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportunities so i just thought that this was a

Chamath Palihapitiya: interesting thing that he that he here's our disclaimer interesting thing that he put me on i thought i'd share that with you i'll publish this on twitter but that's your crypto corner for the

SPEAKER_65: year folks i think it's really interesting how the crypto community is getting organized into uh basically a lobby to advocate for its interest because it's the biggest lobby in america did you know that they've been so targeted over the last few years because gensler and warren have been on a crusade to basically make crypto illegal or drive it offshore well every action has a equal and opposite reaction and now the crypto people have basically had a political awakening and realized they have to get involved in the political system yeah just as a matter of defense self-defense shout out spf so they're getting he's a pioneer well not like that i mean that guy i mean he was dropping money on everybody

SPEAKER_141: yeah yeah did you guys hear this did you hear this rumor that he was doing that to basically push for

SPEAKER_75: regulatory capture remember yeah i think it's okay this is a different point did you guys hear this did you guys hear this rumor that spf was going to put a billion dollars into the election and convince tom brady to run as a republican and give no give the billion to trump oh sorry give the

SPEAKER_30: billion to trump he was going to give trump a billion to not run okay and then get tom brady to

SPEAKER_45: run i mean this person had delusions of gratitude he thought he was a jedi knight and he's like literally in java's powers right now i don't know what this i mean what a lunatic he was i mean talk

SPEAKER_305: about delusions of grandeur sacks this guy thought he would just drop a billion dollars and convince

SPEAKER_45: somebody not to run for government i think we're gonna i think we're gonna get a regulatory you know back to the young people we talked about in the previous story i think the reason they're attracted

SPEAKER_136: to crypto is because it doesn't have government control and since if you don't trust the government and you see the government over and over and over again cover things up or the grift or make decisions that are not in your generation's best interest why wouldn't you opt out of their financial

SPEAKER_00: system and you know what there's a lot of them and they have they're getting organized to your point sax i think we're going to have a crypto framework and it's worth probably five points in this election what do you think sax how many points is being the pro-crypto candidate worth in this election

SPEAKER_136: one two three points of votes four points it's got to be some significance it's hard if young people

SPEAKER_75: show up it'll be it'll be it could be 500 basis points i mean young people do not show up to vote because there isn't an issue that they care about correct but there's 50 million americans that own

SPEAKER_212: crypto 50 50. okay so if 10 of them are like let's say that's their single issue that's 5 million votes

David Friedberg: no no there's a there's a plausible case where 40 million of those folks show up because you're

SPEAKER_75: talking about a structural part of their wealth creation right so for example like you know biden president biden talked about giving people a head start by eliminating their debt that's a narrow issue and the reason it's a narrow issue there's just as many people that don't have debt and just as many people that paid off their debt and it creates a lot of haves and have-nots right and

Chamath Palihapitiya: there's all these rules around who will get the debt relief etc you end up touching four or five million people maximum but if there are 50 million people who have now decided to have at least a hedge against the establishment and the traditional financial system and you are threatening to take that wealth away yeah i could see how 80 of those folks show up to the ballot box and say all right which one of you will just leave me alone and if the answer is president trump then they're all going

SPEAKER_205: to vote for president trump i think this is like such a great issue for uh political candidates

SPEAKER_90: to embrace and it's just such a simple framework i've said it a dozen times create a sophisticated investor test let a thousand flowers bloom people can make whatever crypto projects they want but to buy it you just have to take a simple test like a driver's license so that you don't risk your entire

SPEAKER_45: net worth or whatever if you do you're an informed buyer of crypto just make a sophisticated

SPEAKER_01: investor test and let's move on chamoc just since we're in crypto corner before we leave crypto corner when is my ape going to be worth money again when will my ape go back up never okay so my ape's not

SPEAKER_312: coming back okay so i guess i shouldn't have done that all right how's uh sax coin doing we had sax

SPEAKER_00: coin and we had uh my coin went crazy but that was a pump and dub scheme that we had nothing to do with i will never sell you a coin until i do i just want to let everybody know that if you get a dm from me

SPEAKER_100: i am not selling j coin until you hear it first i would literally do an angel investing coin

SPEAKER_136: immediately if there was a framework for it it would be the greatest idea ever to have like a j coin and i could just like put it into startups and people could buy and sell it and be like this ongoing

SPEAKER_88: evergreen venture where's my j dow i love dows and i love i love the idea of an angel investing coin but

SPEAKER_68: man a startup coin would be brilliant yeah the jason coin is basically at zero it man it it was worth

SPEAKER_319: this is down to eight grand yeah to be clear i didn't have anything to do with sax coin either but

SPEAKER_322: i was more amused by it than anything else yeah well my friend decided to tell everybody he was gonna buy some and then straight to the moon it's pretty funny uh it's hilarious i have some uh i've

SPEAKER_90: only we've only bought crypto twice we have some doge uh which i bought during like the our doge phase a couple years ago and then uh my wife presently bought bitcoin you know at a very low price when everybody was talking about it around thanksgiving and uh my my heart bitcoin went phenomenal and my doge is at break even now so i've spent two years just on the pendulum but who knows maybe those

SPEAKER_88: should become a thing again i love doge all right we have a bellwether of sorts here salesforce dropped more than 20 after reporting earnings we should talk about the state of sas software as a service if you're not in the industry salesforce had its worst day in the markets in nearly 20 years on thursday and that's when we take this they lost about 40 billion dollars in market cap or as we say in the industry two figmas on wednesday salesforce missed q1 revenue estimates for the first time since 2006 revenue was up 9.1 billion 11 year over year but about 40 million below wall street expectations so they're doing great but wall street is concerned for a reason we'll get into what that is net income was 1.5 billion 7x year over year because they've been doing a lot of cuts over there

SPEAKER_90: free cash flow 6 billion up 43 percent profits are up huge because if you remember those activist investors came in and uh had benioff really rethink the structure of the business and the footprint of the business but guidance for q2 down salesforce projecting 7 growth relatively low for them freeberg you and i were talking about this like what are your thoughts here on

SPEAKER_45: what's happening in the markets and then we had the side discussion which we didn't dock it but i think

SPEAKER_90: it's worth bringing up here and dovetailing which is it does seem like the consumer which is an enterprise story but the economy is cooling off consumers i think are running out of money the yolo economy is finally i think at its end what does this say to you freeberg well i think the key

SPEAKER_107: question to your point is there a macroeconomic reason for a slowdown in their business they're forecasting for this next fiscal year revenue growth of only eight to nine percent and for this next quarter it's basically a flat revenue quarter relative to the past quarter so for this fiscal year 38 billion of top line revenue nine billion of operating cash flow and with the market cap coming down by 20 percent the stocks at a 200 billion dollar valuation so it's trading at you know call it roughly 20 times they're operating cash flow forecast with sub 10 revenue growth and that's basically where treasuries trade right because treasury yields for 30 or treasury you can get 4.7 percent today yeah it's about to say almost five you know that's about 20x right so that's about where the multiple is on this salesforce stock so i think it really begs the question on you know is there a macroeconomic force where the enterprise is spending less because of you know a revenue slowdown in the economy which we saw in the latest gdp report that's number one that could be driving this and will affect ultimately the multiple for all these enterprise sas companies or number two is there a shifting underway in the sas business model that the premium that sas companies were able to charge in the pricing model on a per seat basis and the dollars that they're able to charge per employee or per user is so significant relative to what that enterprise can build themselves now with the commoditization available to them under this new era of ai and the ability to build tools internally or the ability for competitors to emerge with significantly underpriced alternatives because they can use generative ai to make software that can compete and then there's this other question because salesforce has been leaning and heavily on the generative ai capabilities that they're offering their customers and it seems like the question is are enterprises waiting to see the value of that generative ai service capability is it worth paying for today should i wait and see or is it actually

SPEAKER_79: indicating that there's a big commoditization and generative ai underway okay meaning why do i have to pay salesforce a bunch of money when i can use some open source third-party tool or some more

SPEAKER_00: freely available tool so chamatha freeberg presented two options here one of them macroeconomic slowdown the other one hey software you know belt tightening is happening inside the enterprise and it's cheaper to make so maybe we have a a deflationary kind of situation inside companies i i guess this is adjacent

SPEAKER_45: that last part of his theory uh is adjacent to the 80 90 mission you're on with your new startup

SPEAKER_78: and maybe this is this an or or an end in your mind chamath is it both these things but sorry before you answer the third point i made was that generative ai might yes and the third point may not be a product

SPEAKER_133: line it may not be enough to charge for it given all the open source tools yes and there's a big question mark about the ai new software will people pay for it so chamath take those three what are you

SPEAKER_75: left i think that if you look at what happened before we had a cycle where very large monolithic software was replaced by these sas vendors and salesforce led that charge and they led the in many ways the definition of the cloud so that was amazing that was this one big cycle and before that that monolithic those monolithic software vendors were replacing like mainframes and very archaic stuff this is sort of this third disruptive cycle we're going to go through a process of ripping and replacing these legacy products and so gen ai is just a an enablement layer that allows you to deliver functionality to people and i think what you're going to find is that it allows you to deliver that functionality at much much cheaper to your point that's the whole point of 80 90. we you know we always joke with salesforce going to get 80 90 yeah because you can deliver 80 of the features at a 90 discount pretty easily today and what you can't deliver today will get much much easier in a year and two years and three years for sure in 10 years so i think what the market is voting with their dollars is that these large lumpy monolithic software companies that need big 50 100 million dollar customers they're not going to find them soon because those customers will realize that you could get you know what freeberg said what you need for 10 million or 5 million or 1 million or 500 000 and in some cases free and so the cost structure of your organization makes no sense and so you're

Chamath Palihapitiya: going to have to go through this very complicated cycle of recycling you know the business model which unfortunately will mean tons of layoffs and that's not a today thing but over these next five and ten years that's probably what's going to happen and it doesn't mean salesforce is a bad company it's just that it is on the wrong side of the life cycle and the odds are overwhelmingly such that a bunch of small companies will flood this opportunity and provides cheaper smaller more

SPEAKER_212: flexible capabilities sex obviously you made your bones in the sas business over the last two decades

SPEAKER_90: at least what are your thoughts here on the challenges i just interviewed owen mccabe from

SPEAKER_00: intercom and he says he thinks the seat model is going to change and obviously if there's less people at companies there's less seats and that may be a headwind that you just can't win against so maybe a consumption model has to happen or a different pricing model but what are your thoughts on what's happening at salesforce and then open the aperture there and tell us what you think is going

SPEAKER_90: to happen in terms of how corporations either decide to make that you know build or buy decision

SPEAKER_68: well i think it's pretty amazing that salesforce lost something like 40 billion of market cap because

SPEAKER_65: of a revenue miss of 40 million you know it's amazing how these relatively small in percentage terms misses in revenue or earnings drive such huge changes in market cap quite a ripple isn't it yeah i mean look my view is that i don't have a strong view about the stock but my sense is it probably a buying opportunity i mean i think salesforce is still a great company mark benningoff's a great ceo he's always positioned the company to chase after whatever the current thing is so obviously he was one of the first to realize that software was headed to the cloud evangelize for the cloud then when the social networking revolution happened he launched chatter which was a competitor to my product gamer back then but he was ahead of the curve on on social in the enterprise then it was big data and they launched einstein now they've got ai and they're going to be doing a bunch of different things there so my guess is he's going to figure out how to take advantage of this this ai trend for the company they're not going to miss it they're not going to get caught totally flat-footed so you look i don't have a super strong point of view on it as an investment but what about the bigger picture

SPEAKER_88: open the aperture there with the well i think the bigger picture pricing and how many people work at these companies and then if the per seat model is the model and then people are going to have less humans working at companies and do more with less how what does that mean for sas writ large i'm

SPEAKER_313: honestly not worried about the per seat model i mean the point of a pricing plan should be to align

SPEAKER_65: revenue expansion with roi meaning the more value that a customer gets from your product the more they're willing to pay and you just need some proxy for measuring that seats are a good proxy it's a good way to measure how much value the customer is getting out of your product because the more seats they're buying the more value they must be getting yes you could do it some other way you could basically meter data usage you could meter api usage sure those models will work for other kinds of companies but i don't think there's going to be a huge disruption to the c model is my sense look i think the bigger issue here is that their forecast was soft right they are forecasting what sub 10 percent revenue growth they're going to and this is why the stock got punished and i'm seeing that a bunch of sas companies are kind of hurting today now in the wake of this they're down like five percent not 20 but so i wonder if what the market is wondering is whether there's a more

SPEAKER_228: general slowdown that we're on the precipice of i don't think that that explains 40 20 drop in a day

SPEAKER_75: i think typically these public market investors internalize a bunch of fears and they don't execute on those fears and then when given an opportunity they just barf it all out because it's like now it's acceptable and so to your point david like it was such like a an insignificant revenue miss so as to

Chamath Palihapitiya: not even be important quite honestly but the reason it's down 20 is i think folks have internalized a

SPEAKER_75: different set of risks and then they've found an escape hatch where they have plausible deniability

SPEAKER_141: for selling that's just what a lot of public market investors do i don't think it's a coincidence

SPEAKER_65: that we just had the gdp forecast revised down for the latest quarter what was it it's down to like

SPEAKER_127: one point four percent one something yeah we talked about this last week because it's this number's

SPEAKER_90: fake the economy is looking pretty soft right now which is i guess a good jumping off point uh which is do what do we think is happening here with the economy and then interest rates because the whole goal here was to get us under you know get us close to two percent get rid of the free handle at least in terms of interest going up and maybe get the consumers to not be spending so much money which

SPEAKER_00: is crazy to think about or maybe get more people laid off and have the unemployment not so low remember

SPEAKER_65: when everyone was talking about soft landing yeah the reason why they were having that conversation is because the fed jacked up interest rates really suddenly from roughly zero to five five and a half percent and it worked that has an impact on people's consumption because debt is much more expensive so again it's it's worse to buy a house harder to buy a car anything you need to finance

SPEAKER_223: gets much harder it took a long time for this to work its way through the economy but i think

SPEAKER_45: we're finally seeing it now i think we're i think that's exactly right i think we're here when you see that three handle like does it go down you know it's very interesting about the two percent target i went down the rabbit hole to try to figure out that two percent target like i was like who came

SPEAKER_01: up with two percent as a number like why isn't it three or two point five or one point five or one

SPEAKER_205: it's a guy in new zealand who is you know came up with what he thought was a good target two percent the world adopted it so going back to our conversation about experts yeah but he just freely admits it he's just

SPEAKER_00: like yeah i just thought three percent seemed like the right number it wasn't too high wasn't too low and it's kind of healthy to have things go up in price because that means like the economy is growing it's it's just a random target two percent it was his gut incredible right incredible yeah i mean if you

SPEAKER_107: look at this we are at what is it 3.6 percent annualized cpi inflation and 1.3 percent annualized gdp growth and a 4.7 30-year treasury yield this is i don't know what else is more definitional of stagflation the economy is not growing prices are going up and the cost of borrow has gone through the

SPEAKER_30: roof yeah someone's got to give and then also if they keep raising taxes um like their plans are then affluent people are going to be trying to protect their assets and who's they i'm just

SPEAKER_100: thinking like a politician like if a politician were to raise taxes dramatically but which i don't want you to have biden derangement syndrome here sacks okay well i can promise you this i don't think

SPEAKER_58: trump's going to raise taxes but biden will he has the trifecta absolutely absolutely that's why i'll

SPEAKER_00: see you thursday night with my 50 000 check i can't wait to be there yeah it's gonna easily be paid

SPEAKER_360: for by my tax cut just to jump back for a second on the salesforce point so you know salesforce faces

SPEAKER_79: these challenges but it's still led by mark benioff absolutely that dude's tremendous and if you look at the performance of the average public company regardless of the sector that that business operates in that is run by a hired ceo versus run by a founder ceo yeah the founder public companies that have that have gone public achieved a 10 billion dollar market cap and are still founder run as the ceo from there outperform nearly any index you look at okay and this is i think like a really key point you could probably put together i think some people have done this put together a founder portfolio but i wouldn't count out benioff just because of some of the stuff that we talked about that because founders founders founders can and will maneuver their way to success that is the

SPEAKER_00: hunger of the entrepreneur let's do our uh let's do our draft the one uh founders you should not bet against which founder would you least want to short chamathia first in the draft who do you got who

SPEAKER_212: would you not want to bet against worst person to bet against sorry what do you mean like founders

SPEAKER_169: any entrepreneur in history we already know what happened when people tried to short elon they got

SPEAKER_205: incinerated barbecue sauce okay you got you picked elon in the draft then that's number one chamathia you got yeah that's easy i would pick him too okay but we got pick somebody out that's why it's a draft here we took elon now you're gonna take the next person it could be anybody it doesn't have to

SPEAKER_212: be alive doesn't have to be in position right now who would i sorry what's that oh what founder

SPEAKER_88: what you least likely to short an entrepreneur you least want to short well have you on larry ellison okay larry ellison's yours hold on now freeberg you get to go in the draft what do you got i i

SPEAKER_107: don't know the i mean all these founders i don't know how to pick one i mean what are you gonna go

SPEAKER_377: with uh yeah i'm gonna go with uh i'm gonna go with uh bill gates what he's not always dogging

SPEAKER_380: no i said it could be any period of time yeah now that you know the stock performance what are you

SPEAKER_384: talking about i just think even in the next company you're gonna go out on a limb you're

SPEAKER_390: gonna go out on a limb and say that when bill gates was doing his legendary run i wouldn't have shorted

SPEAKER_388: it absolutely i also wouldn't short michael jordan or lebron james step curry definitely wouldn't get

SPEAKER_133: been against him all right everybody breaking news today in the law being fair i'm sorry today in law

SPEAKER_45: fair depending on your view trump was found guilty on all 34 felony charges you can choose your own framing here some say it's election interference uh some people are referring to this as the hush money porn star case other people are calling it the deep state lawfare case the jury deliberated for about a day and a half trial lasted six weeks include testimony from 20 witnesses key moment seems to have been trump's cfo weisselberg who's i think in jail right now for other charges um outlining the terms of the payments to michael cohen the uh disgraced lying attorney who recorded trump's conversations and that's i think all i can tell you about this except for maybe the sentencing is uh coming up it's going to be july 11th which is but four days before the rnc clearly a sad day for america i'm not sure if anybody on the panel has any opinions on the trump verdict but let's just randomly start with you david any thoughts on trump being convicted

SPEAKER_395: of 34 felonies in this case well first of all in terms of understanding this case i think it's

SPEAKER_65: important to understand that both merrick garland's doj and former manhattan da cyrus vans they looked at this case they looked at these charges and they passed on bringing this case alvin bragg was a soros funded da he won a hotly contested race to succeed vance by pledging to get trump and that's why he brought this case and in order to bring these charges he had to use a creative legal formula that turned a misdemeanor charge of falsifying business records a charge that would have been passed the statute of limitations into a felony by claiming it was in the service of a second crime but he never

David Sacks: named exactly what that crime was or proved that it happened and i think it's safe to say that a case like this which is novel and creative and torturous would never been brought against anybody but trump now there's about five different grounds for appeal on this number one the judge is a biden donor with a daughter who works for biden number two prejudicial and irrelevant evidence was admitted that should have been excluded including stormy daniels testimony number three trump was not able to call his expert in election law former head of fec bradley smith number four the prosecution never named the second crime and then number five the judge let the jury pick from a range of options for what the second crime might be including tax crimes which no evidence was presented and federal election crimes for which the court had no jurisdiction so my guess is that at the end of the day this case is going to get tossed on appeal but that's probably going to happen after the election after november 5th and democrats now have what they wanted they they wanted to get out of this case four words donald trump convicted felon and you're going to be hearing that phrase convicted felon repeated ad nauseam from now until november 5th and i think that's the whole point of this case freeberg your take

SPEAKER_367: no i mean it felt like this was always a win-win trial for trump if he gets convicted then you know

SPEAKER_107: the conversation that we're hearing now you know this was an unfair conviction how could they do this this is lawfare and if he doesn't get convicted they tried to burn him at the stake how could they try and do that clearly he's innocent he was made innocent so you know it it never really struck me as being a smart i'm not a political guy but the political calculus just seemed off on this entirely it certainly wasn't clear what they were trying to accomplish either way trump looks good and i think we saw tonight reports that his website for making donations crashed a lot of people started making public statements on twitter that are not typically republican donors that they're donating a lot of money to donald trump coming out of this and so it is clearly infuriating a lot of people that as sacks points out you know something that some people are considering to be you know a bookkeeping or accounting crime has turned into 34 felony convictions it feels unfair it feels like the wrong decision and it's going to infuriate people because people worry about the quality of the justice system anyone who's sitting in the middle as an independent or an undecided i think it

SPEAKER_399: is much more likely that they are going to have sympathy for donald trump coming out of this not

SPEAKER_400: admonishment shamaf your take i think that if you went into this looking to confirm your hatred

SPEAKER_401: of president trump you you were the one that was given red meat and i think that if you were undecided for pro president trump you probably found more reason to support him for all the reasons that freebrick said the thing that's unique about this specific trial that i found rather interesting was the diversity of people who just couldn't understand what this trial was about whether it was bill barr who worked for him but was not a huge fan of his nor was you know trump or vice versa right to an alan dershowitz to osiris vance you had democrats and republicans and independents legal scholars legal experts some who liked president trump some who did not some who got along with him some who did not some who fought with him some who did not some who got fired by him some who did not and they were all categorically confused about what this whole thing was about i'm not legally well versed enough to understand what it was so as a layman you then tend to go to this next obvious thing which is you have to bucket this decision as here are some experts and what they know is better than what i know and we talked about this earlier on the pod today when it came to fauci and it turned out to not be so true or you go to this other place where are there systems of government that can be convoluted and turned in the favor of the majority who's in power against someone that they feel is a threat and we've talked about that as well with respect to how some of these governmental institutions have targeted some of our friends so i think that we're in a very precarious moment where the systems of governments in the united states

SPEAKER_410: are a little bit more fragile than they were the moment before okay if people are wondering what the

SPEAKER_90: case is actually about falsifying business records um this is a pretty serious crime in new york city basically when people don't keep correct records uh when they're committing crimes this is taken seriously in new york because it is the financial capital of the world they've got a long history

SPEAKER_45: whether it's uh you know bernie madoff enron etc of uh pursuing these i don't know why this didn't get communicated well to the public um but there were obviously tons of business records falsified here and they basically admitted to it michael cohen had pleaded guilty to it already and so it really feels like a misdemeanor and then to understand what happened after that there is a law in new

SPEAKER_88: york as sacks correctly pointed out on top of the falsifying of business records which new york takes deadly seriously and they put this in every indictment when people do it because they want the accountants lawyers cfos to behave themselves and not cheat the public the election interference also

SPEAKER_45: taken very seriously in new york there's been tons of cases again typically minor things but people who do things like try to stuff ballots etc and so you put those two together if you do uh falsifying if you falsify business records and you do it as part of a second crime which he did which he was convicted of then you get these penalties so that is the explanation of the case that was why he was found guilty it's pretty easy to figure this all out if you don't know all this it's because you didn't

SPEAKER_00: take the time to read anything about the case in terms of the basic heuristics of it which i think is because people are burned out on this trump has committed so many misdemeanors and crimes over time that we're kind of used to it and you know my personal take on it and i'll just leave it at this is i think it's going to be a speeding ticket i do think it's going to get overturned i think trump has done this his whole career i lived in new york all these real estate guys were doing all these kind of like little ticky tacky cheating things and um i do think that this was politically motivated

SPEAKER_414: what was the second crime jacob you if you understand election interference election what does

SPEAKER_100: that you're not allowed to interfere with elections so the theory here which the you know the the jury

SPEAKER_00: unanimously voted in front of in over these six or seven weeks election interference was because trump was in dire straits he after the access hollywood tape came out that weekend when he admitted to assaulting women the grab them by the blank came out his team in this case admitted including his assistant michael cohen alan weisselberg and of course the guy from the national inquire pecker all of them agreed testified and just were completely honest that this payment and the reason they bought these people off was because they were scared that it would reduce his chances of being elected they were in panic mode they all testified to that the jury found that they committed these crimes the falsifying of business records in order to save his election chances so that is the legal concept this legal concept was available to everybody for the last you know since it's been filed in the new york times anybody who doesn't read these basic things and comments on this case is just a partisan who doesn't want to accept the reality that these are actual legal concepts that are completely valid now i do think despite all of that and me making it abundantly clear to anybody that you don't want people falsifying business records and you also don't want anybody interfering in elections i do think it was politically motivated so you got to keep two

SPEAKER_30: things in your mind at the same time it's politically motivated trump commits crimes regularly often but

SPEAKER_220: they tend to be you just said it was going to be reversed on appeal so if you're so confident

SPEAKER_30: it's a crime then why do you also say it's going to get reversed yeah because i think well i i'll let me restate that i think he's going to get a speeding ticket i don't think the case is going to reverse

SPEAKER_00: i think there's going to be some sort of a pardon now that this is a state kind of situation so it wouldn't be biden who would pardon it it would be the uh the governor and i think what's going to happen is somebody like trump teflon don he's called that for a reason he gets away with it every time he's rich he's powerful like all rich and powerful people you have to really do something heinous to wind up in jail so i think it's going to be a speeding ticket i do think the the documents cases that one is a pretty legitimate one with the obstruction and i do think the election interference those are the two he should be really worried about because if he is found guilty on those those are legit but i do think this country is going to need to come together i hate to be the bigger person here but i do think the company the country needs to get together and get us two new

SPEAKER_133: candidates and we can't be having this law fair and politically motivated lawsuits every time somebody loses or they're afraid of losing an election but let me ask you a question jason

SPEAKER_401: you're a you're a you're a famous successful person and over the next 10 or 20 years the odds are pretty

SPEAKER_420: good you'll be more famous and more successful say more chama do you feel do you feel the less the same

SPEAKER_401: or more okay you have to say less same or more okay if somebody in government doesn't like what you're up to after today are you less the same or more in terms of the risk that the laws could be used

SPEAKER_371: to fight you i think we're kind of in the same area i think there's always been politically motivated

SPEAKER_00: prosecutions that have occurred that's part of you know the flaw in our legal system and i do think appeals pardons exist as the the relief valve for those things and i think for rich and powerful people with great representation they always get off unless they've done something incredibly incredibly heinous and i don't think this is incredibly heinous and so when it's framed as simply oh it's a porn star he banged a porn star who cares it was consensual and she got a payoff or maybe she was um extorting

SPEAKER_45: him even you know i i don't know if those details were ever determined if you could frame it as extortion or not i think none of that matters like this this falsifying business records thing is just

SPEAKER_00: something they did they should just own it they should have just pled it out and it should have probably never been escalated to the next level with the election interference i thought that was a

SPEAKER_147: little bit of a stretch but not that much escalated because alvin bragg got elected to pursue this case

SPEAKER_431: and that's the only way you could get it from a misdemeanor to a felon yeah exactly so i think

SPEAKER_147: that is part of the belief i know you're really giddy about this jake how i can hear your voice

SPEAKER_133: no i'm not honestly all you're doing no no i'm going to stop you right there no sorry sax you don't

SPEAKER_45: get to say i'm giddy i'm not going to tell you how you feel you don't get to tell me how i feel i actually am sad for america i'm sad for america that trump and biden are our choices okay great so

SPEAKER_293: speak for yourself not for me okay great well maybe i'm just detecting enthusiasm in your voice

SPEAKER_65: i'm not quite sure what it is not at all you're presenting these documents on the screen that are basically from alvin bragg's case that's all you're doing is repeating his theory of the case which i must say is extremely tortured and it's novel i don't think a case like this has ever been brought and if you are going to bring a case against a former president it should be for something more than ticky tacky type stuff stuff that you yourself admit is politically motivated it's obvious bragg was out to get trump this is a campaign strategy you have to bend the law into a

David Sacks: pretzel to create the case that you're describing listen you know i think trump will continue to do

SPEAKER_00: these he's had these long before he was in public office he got tons of speeding tickets like this

SPEAKER_167: he'll get them after he's out of office he's always committed crimes he's always done what this

SPEAKER_65: reminds me of is you remember ken star and what they went after bill clinton for with the whole monica lewinski thing sure and when that star report dropped you know and then hundreds of pages of legalities and they described all the purient behavior and you know amazing amounts of detail at the end of the day the american people looked at it and decided that maybe there's a tawdry element to this but it's personal behavior and after some period of time clinton's popularity rebounded and he actually gained seats in the midterms because the republicans overplayed their hand yeah totally and i think in a similar way it's very clear to me and in fact you've already said this is politically motivated and they basically have taken some sort of bookkeeping error that was

David Sacks: a misdemeanor that was past the statute of limitations and they've combined it again with this very novel legal theory about somehow committing fault in the election which by the way was not actually proven in the case and as part of the jury instructions again the judge allowed the jury to have a multiple choice on what the second crime was which is what a lot of legal experts think will become the basis for appeal so again this whole case was tortured it was politically motivated i would go so far as to say it's a sham it's an outrage and i think people are reacting as though it's an outrage and again if you're gonna bring a case not just against the former president but the current front runner to be the next president it better be something important not this ticky tacky thing that the way you describe it as being ticky tacky why even waste the public's time with this why even spend all the money pursuing this and i told you why yeah no that's donald trump convicted felon that's the reason why the media wants that talking point and by the way if you want to make a switcheroo and get a different candidate than joe biden that's not going to happen now because democrats in the media think that this is their salvation they know they're running it's

SPEAKER_133: not going to be the obstruction case and the january 6th case that is those are legit cases they should have just gone after those because those are the ones that are completely legit

SPEAKER_65: but here we are the democratic party knows they're running a candidate who can't debate who can't put two sentences together who can barely find his way off a stage whose policies are coming home to roost the economy like we talked about on the show is slowing down very rapidly his foreign policy is a disaster but they think that somehow this is going to be his salvation is is being able to say that donald trump is a felon that's their plan yeah and i think at the

David Sacks: end of the day this is probably not going to work all right there you have it folks there's your

SPEAKER_03: quick hot take around the horn with your bestie on trump being convicted by a jury in new york today

SPEAKER_00: it'll be sentenced on july 11th and we'll see what happens there the market also after we talked

SPEAKER_03: about salesforce a bunch of the sas companies took a dive in the after hours freeberg any thoughts there

SPEAKER_79: as we could not not just sass but also dell and in particular dell reported their stock is down 20

SPEAKER_107: after hours so i do wonder if there is a slow reckoning underway right now in technology that's as we talked about in the show a function of both kind of an economic slowdown so enterprises making fewer investments but they were they've clearly called out the increased cost associated with ai so they are spending quite a lot and their uh their cogs on ai systems is much higher and so they're showing a lot more cash burn and i think this is to chama's point chama's been talking

SPEAKER_401: for a while it's unsustainable guys i've been saying this now for a month so let's just be precise again you cannot spend this kind of money and show no incremental revenue potential so while this is incredible for nvidia the chicken is coming home to ruse because if you do not start seeing revenue flow to the bottom line of these companies that are spending 26 billion dollars a quarter the market cap of nvidia is not what the market cap of nvidia should be and all of these other companies are going to get punished for spending this kind of money now dell is a unique example in the sense that i actually think it's a beneficiary of spend and i think that it will build data centers and it will actually do well in the move to ai because it's a very smartly positioned pick and shovels provider but the threshold question is where are all these newfangled things that we're supposed to see that justifies a hundred billion dollars of chip spending here 200 billion dollars of energy spend a hundred billion dollars of all this other stuff guys this is we're now spending 750 billion dollars this is on

SPEAKER_406: the order of a national transfer payment and we've seen nothing to show for it except that you can mimic

SPEAKER_133: somebody's voice and you can make like a cat jump on another cat i mean making a developer 30 or 40 percent more efficient that's actually legit but i will say that hasn't happened yet either no that's totally no no that's happening in startups right now i'm seeing startups with four developers do what just

SPEAKER_88: a couple years ago they would need eight to do there and that's the premise of your company

SPEAKER_406: i think that developers can go faster with these tools but these are yes but these are aspirational

SPEAKER_401: things when you take a for example a 30 000 person company it is not true that those engineers now are now all of a sudden as productive as 130 000 employees it's not even true that a thousand employee company is as productive as a four thousand person company and the reason is for one very specific thing even as all of these next generation next generation models get released the practical threshold problem is when you introduce a completely new way of doing things into an existing workforce what

SPEAKER_406: happens is people push back and even in the companies that i own where i could theoretically mandate you must use these tools because i am the owner of this company it doesn't happen and so i think what you're really seeing jason is a few people embrace it those people may be 50 to 100 more productive but when you blend that into the entire workforce it's still a single digit percentage which means the overall productivity gains are nominal yeah i think that's a fair point because you're being forced to spend yeah again 750 billion dollars a year it doesn't all hang together yet

SPEAKER_133: yeah i agree there's going to be a bit of a gap there and i am biased because i see startups which are

SPEAKER_88: always looking for the most resourceful way to do things and you're talking about large enterprises which are slow to adopt right and i think we're both to be right here yeah you get around the

SPEAKER_406: innovators dilemma by saying guys you need to be ai first from the outset which a startup can do because they can they can recruit people that for example with 80 90 same thing you must use these tools for example we are not allowed to have any administrative staff everything is done by an agent or workflow but that's because we're a new company and we can make those decisions but somebody who is at an established company i suspect that these that these gains are nominal at best yet the spend is outrageous and it

SPEAKER_426: gets okay and when it catches up with you when you report i think the market is sort of like well i i

SPEAKER_79: think the first the you know the general statement might be made that perhaps the first ai mini bubble is

SPEAKER_107: bursting a bit and particularly with respect to the accelerated expectations that public market investors had for public market technology stocks that perhaps now is the time for a bit of a reckoning that perhaps this isn't going to happen at the same margin level or the pace that folks had

SPEAKER_79: modeled and this is going to cause a bit of a setback i think pace is a very good point you're making i also think that with the gdp slowdown that we've seen report that just came out this week with a

SPEAKER_107: sub two percent us gdp growth we are seeing an economic slowdown underway there is going to be reduced spending there is going to be reduced conversion of enterprise customers to buy anything

SPEAKER_79: and so that is going to dramatically affect the market we're looking at five percent 30-year treasury rates which means that you are going to see multiple compression that's going to happen across the market for tech stocks so this could be the beginning of what i think might be a slow

SPEAKER_107: contraction one thing i just want to make sure i'm not a market i just one thing to me i i do have

SPEAKER_88: some information on the dell stuff one thing to keep in mind is they had like a 30 run up or 20 run up at least since nvidia's ceo praised them and like i guess all these meme stock people just jumped in so i think it's just like a little ticky tacky correction back to the ticky tacky sax any final dots here on ai

SPEAKER_90: before we all leave to go to our you know trump celebrations and or yeah maybe the market doesn't

SPEAKER_52: like the us becoming a banana republic there it is folks the banana republic

SPEAKER_482: oh i could still be friends with you guys uh all right everybody for who's you guys oh you guys

SPEAKER_00: i i was wondering to those guys all right four chamaths two missing buttons we would like to encourage everybody to enjoy their summer three buttons are coming um we have to see my i got my

SPEAKER_45: short shorts oh oh god that's so pasty white i gotta get my sunglasses the over under on when

SPEAKER_479: chamoff goes for the third button is jan is june 25th so june 25th in the betting markets right now

SPEAKER_34: now for the third button love you guys we'll see you all next time on the world's greatest podcast

SPEAKER_167: okay last year at the island summit we had a wonderful talk by jenny just and they have a very

SPEAKER_01: cool program called power poker they're holding a 2024 summer boot camp and tournament for women only so for the ladies out there if you want to learn how to play poker just like the besties and jenny just you can join this four-week training class get unlimited playing time you play in a tournament

SPEAKER_88: i'm going to come and play in one of the sessions but here's the great part we uh donated a ticket because we think it's worth uh encouraging women to join the poker community and so uh there's a 7500 all-in summit 2024 ticket at stake there's only 80 spots go ahead and join at pokerpower.com slash summer dash boot camp pokerpower.com summer dash boot camp it's going to fill up quick i know a number of the women who work at my venture firm launch have joined and they're looking forward to

SPEAKER_01: learning poker again 80 spots i think they charge 100 bucks just to make sure you show up and uh there's an all-in summit ticket there for you you can actually see the video of this podcast on youtube

SPEAKER_185: youtube.com slash at all in or just search all in podcast and hit the alert bell and you'll get updates when we post and we're going to do a party in vegas my understanding when we hit a million subscribers so look for that as well you can follow us on x x.com slash the all in pod tick tock is all underscore in underscore talk instagram the all in pod and on linkedin just search for the all in podcast you can follow chamath at x.com slash chamath and you can sign up for a sub stack at chamath.substack.com i do freeberg can be followed at x.com freeberg and ohalo is hiring click on the careers page at

SPEAKER_167: ohalo genetics.com three two okay everybody follow sax at x.com david sacks and check out

SPEAKER_185: sax's slack killer glue at glue.ai i'm jason calacanis i am x.com slash jason and if you want to see pictures of my bulldogs and the food i'm eating go to instagram.com slash jason in the first name club you can listen to my other podcasts this week in startups just search for it on youtube or your favorite podcast player we are hiring a researcher apply to be a researcher doing primary research and working with me and producer nick working in data and science and being able to do great research finance etc all in podcast.co slash research it's a full-time job working with us the besties and really excited about my investment in athena go to athena wow steenawow.com and get yourself a bit of a discount from your boy jay cow steenawow.com we'll see you all next time on the all in podcast