SPEAKER_00: Come January 20th, it's going to be game on Reddit, most likely to be acquired. I think Reddit, DoorDash, Uber, and Lyft are my four most likely to be acquired in the next four years. SPEAKER_01: Those four will be on the acquire slash merger because some of them might merge or whatever. I don't have inside information, obviously. I don't need some public companies. This is purely speculation. I wouldn't be surprised if Reddit, Lyft, DoorDash, and Uber were part SPEAKER_02: of something bigger, either acquirers, acquiree, conglomerate, put together, Amazon plus Uber, Waymo plus Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash. Chamath Palihapitiya: This Week in Startups is brought to you by Ramp, the corporate card and spend SPEAKER_05: management software designed to help you save time and money. Get $250 when you join Ramp today at ramp.com slash twist. Zendesk, the best customer experiences are built with Zendesk. Qualifying startups can join their startup program and get Zendesk products free for six months. Visit zendesk.com slash twist today to get started. And DigitalOcean, whether you're just getting started with AI or seeing your project take off, DigitalOcean is the cloud platform that lets you focus on what matters, building killer apps. Right now, get up to $100,000 in free credits at do.co slash twist. Terms and conditions apply. SPEAKER_07: All right, everybody. Welcome back to This Week in Startups. It's Monday, December 9th. My God, we've got plenty of shows for you this month, but we're in that trowel SPEAKER_08: between Thanksgiving and Christmas, New Year's, when everybody simply bides their time to go F off and go skiing and do whatever. No, we're all working really hard to try to get a bunch done. If you're trying to raise money between Thanksgiving and January 15th, it is a terrible idea. That is the dead zone for founders. And I literally have founders who are pinging me like, Hey, I think I'm going to SPEAKER_11: raise a round before the end of the year. I'm like, really it's November 20th. SPEAKER_12: Like, come on, you know, VCs have families in most cases, and they have unlimited time off. They're going to take breaks during this time. SPEAKER_00: And then to get three or four VCs in a fund to get consensus on a deal, unless it's a world-class deal that is competitive, it's not happening, folks. So just be wary of that. SPEAKER_14: So basically, if you have tons of inbound and your company starts with the words open AI, you can probably raise before the end of the year if you want to. SPEAKER_17: But if you're not that company, probably not. SPEAKER_11: The VCs would have to feel FOMO. They would have to feel like they're going to miss out and the window is closed. SPEAKER_08: The train's leaving the station. The next time you can get it is at 34th Herald square or, you know, Columbus circle. Like you're on an express train, you know, if it's an express train startup. SPEAKER_12: Yes. If you're a local startup, which is 95% of startups are not on the express route because they're figuring out product market fit. SPEAKER_08: Um, but you know, I just always want to start the show and remind people, greatest thing SPEAKER_00: you can do in your life is start a company. That's it. I'm sorry, I'm talking about professional start a company. Next best thing you can do is join a startup. Third, best thing you can do is invest in a startup. Fourth, best thing you can do is try a startup product and give the founder feedback directly. That's constructive. Tell them what you love. Tell them what you hope they add. Tell them what's broken. These are the four things you can do. Everything else you do in your life does not echo in eternity. SPEAKER_23: So, well, speaking of testing products, Jason, actually the intro banter that I wanted to SPEAKER_17: get to today was simply that as we were going to live to record the show, Sora from open AI is trickling its way out. And sadly, I could not log in before we hit record to play with it. I'm hoping that I have access today because you and I both pay for chat GPT. So come Wednesday, I'm hoping to have a couple of cool clips to show off. Yeah. But in terms of shipping velocity, talk about that a lot, building new things and testing things out in the market. I think this is going to be the biggest product release, apart from the Reddit news later in the show that we're going to see between now and 2025. So I'm pretty excited. SPEAKER_07: For people who don't know, Sora is the video creation tool from open AI. So they give them names. I think eventually this idea that there's different names and different products, maybe it will SPEAKER_29: be like a Microsoft office suite where, you know, you have Excel and Word and PowerPoint and a database of some kind, or maybe it's all just going to be one. Cause I noticed when I use Grok, I tell it to create an image in the same place. I ask it a question. And I know with chat GPT, it's like that too. SPEAKER_08: Did, I think they may have even removed from the interface, whatever their image creation tool was called, it's Dolly. Dolly. SPEAKER_07: So I don't know that there's like Dolly exists anymore. So I wonder if Sora needs more of an interface, but you know, we had a great all in SPEAKER_08: holiday spectacular on Saturday. Thanks to everybody who came. It was chaotic and fun and awesome. Uh, and I gave my, uh, big surprise of the year to Google. I just thought, man, remember when we were sitting here a year ago, everyone was saying, Oh my God, 10 blue links, Google's toast. Nobody's going to use it anymore. I've been using Gemini. Uh huh. That product is as good or better than chat GPT. I cannot believe the parody level. And you can just download Gemini right now, you know, like it's a dedicated app. It's not like hitting your Google interface or it's like a section of Google search. Right. They've actually committed to making it a dedicated iOS app. SPEAKER_12: And when you talk to it, it's really good, this voice interface. And when we did our best technology of the year, two people said voice interface and two of us said, uh, self-driving cars and Waymo's. And I took a Waymo when I was in San Francisco. SPEAKER_34: It's great, it's great, um, but it's going to take time clearly. SPEAKER_00: And, um, you know, one of the things with the Waymo, and I don't know if this is going to get changed over time. Waymo and self-driving cars, they take 10 more minutes to get you where you're going. A great human driver, they know the routes, they zip, zip, zip. It turns out like Waymo takes peculiar routes around the city. Um, so even though it's great, it adds like 10 minutes to a 20 minute journey, because it doesn't take the streets in San Francisco that are maybe a little more challenging. SPEAKER_37: Isn't that interesting? SPEAKER_39: Oh, so it's, it's picking easier to drive streets versus quick streets for transit. Correct. SPEAKER_08: And got it. It's a bit of a square when it comes to driving, you know, like you get a good Uber driver, you know, you're going to roll. Through some stops in pack heights, you know, come to a full rolling stop kind of situation. Uh-huh. SPEAKER_43: And this thing is like, stop, crawl ahead, go stay within the lines. SPEAKER_34: It doesn't break any of the rules because for obvious reasons, you're working with the transportation departments. SPEAKER_29: Yeah. If you break the rules knowingly, and you train your AI to break the rules, it's like, did you train your AI to roll through stop signs? It's one person you can go to and give the ticket to Waymo. Yeah. SPEAKER_47: Yeah. SPEAKER_29: Cruise, you know, you can just go give them the ticket for a hundred percent of the time. They do that. SPEAKER_08: Whereas with a human, you got to catch them doing it. And then they give you a sob story. You get a little interface back and forth. Maybe, you know, if you got a brother who's on the job, maybe you get a pass. SPEAKER_34: I don't know. I'm just saying sometimes that happens. You get a little badge in your wallet. So anyway, it's definitely in the future, but there are going to be some interesting issues. It is nice to not have a driver sometimes, like you're making a private phone call or, you know, you want to talk about something that you don't want somebody to hear. You know, that happens to be sometimes and, um, there was, there are some nice aspects to it. SPEAKER_51: So I give them an A plus, um, as well. SPEAKER_39: Yeah, no, I'm really excited about that. I have lots of thoughts about, about that, but we do have a guest, isn't that I do want to get up. I'm so excited. Friend of the pod. Yeah. SPEAKER_17: Friend of the pod, uh, Anthony Pompiano is here. Everyone knows him from his high powered and very caffeinated Twitter account, which is one of my favorite things. Um, also he's an investor at Pomp Capital, which is a single family office. And then also founder and CEO over at professional capital management, which I had Pomp explained to me before the show. And I'm going to take a shot at it. SPEAKER_54: It is an investment company that does incubation and uses cash flows from priorly founded businesses to invest in both private and public equities. Anthony, how was that? That was great. There we go. How are you guys? Also, I'm good. How are you doing brother? SPEAKER_59: Look at that. SPEAKER_11: I know this is a very good setup. It's like somewhere between two ferns and your money manager's office. I don't know what your, what's the aesthetic we're going for here, Pomp. SPEAKER_62: The one that would make you laugh, Jason. SPEAKER_11: You did it. You did it. You have good depth. You got a great suit on for those people listening, but Pomp's been coming on the pod for years. SPEAKER_08: He's got a great podcast, but you know, he's been in crypto. He's one of the OGs, like my friend Vinny Langham or Sandeep. He's been there forever. And so whenever Bitcoin does one of its backflips or there's a lot of crypto news, he's just one of the best guys to have on the program. SPEAKER_01: Top, top three or four I can have on the program. So I wanted to just start with, you know, Hey, listen, Bitcoin came back. We got Trump in office. Uh, my friend, uh, David Sachs, I don't know if you've met him before, but somebody was actually showing a clip of him talking with you like five or six years ago. It's pretty good. He's now the crypto czar and AI czar for Trump. So people are feeling pretty bullish. SPEAKER_00: Gensler's out. Let me just ask him right off the bat. What are the vibes in the crypto space after what I'll call nuclear winter for the last four years under Gensler, or maybe it's more actually. SPEAKER_68: Yeah. I don't think that, um, regulation really stopped anything in the sense of obviously asset prices are at all time highs. Uh, you saw Coinbase go public. You saw the Bitcoin ETF get approved. You saw the ETF get approved. Um, and so there was kind of progress, even though people felt like there was abrasiveness or friction from the regulators. Uh, I think the question is how much more progress could be made if you take that abrasiveness away. And so, uh, the best description I heard is somebody said, it's like holding a beach ball underneath the water in a pool. If you take your hands off, like do all of a sudden does the beach ball kind of come up? I thought that was like a pretty good, uh, visual for it. SPEAKER_70: As a business operator, wouldn't you love to save 5% on all your expenses? SPEAKER_07: Well, with ramp, you can ramp is the corporate card and spend management software designed to help you save time and put money back in your pocket. And you don't have to wait to see benefits. The average ramp customer hits 5% savings in their first year here at launch. We love ramp. Our operations team, including Heidi uses it all day long. Why? Well, ramp automatically captures all the receipts right from our emails and it learns our spending patterns and shows us where we can save money. 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Super generous. you get 250 when you join ramp just go to ramp.com twist that's r-a-m-p.com twist disclaimer cards SPEAKER_00: issued by sutton bank members fdic terms and conditions apply and so uh paul atkins the new SPEAKER_68: sec um kind of nominee uh very pro bitcoin and crypto uh scott besant uh seems to be pro bitcoin as well and so i think that the question before was like hey how much damage could be done SPEAKER_79: by certain positions certain organizations uh now even with trump being the first kind of bitcoin president i think the question is like hey what if everything goes right what if there is this big tailwind behind the asset um and you know frankly i don't know anything more than you guys know so SPEAKER_81: we're going to find out together over the next four years yes i wanted to start actually there SPEAKER_17: ironically anthony sorry to push you on what you just said you don't know but i'm curious how quickly things can change with the new administration because it feels like right now everyone's kind of pre-buying the good vibes that you know the good times are back and we'll have the first bitcoin president as you said but does there need to be like like things that pass through congress to have SPEAKER_84: the impact in the market that people are expecting us to have no i think uh the vibe shift the vibe SPEAKER_86: shift is all you needed i mean you know bitcoin's up 50 or so since trump was elected and so uh when SPEAKER_79: you think of like market impact there's nothing that is a clearer signal than like people are buying the assets it's a finite asset so the price goes up and so if you go and you say like hey why are they buying the asset uh you know there's a couple of different things it's not just trump but i do think that trump being that first pro bitcoin president is a big part of it but i think that people really are seeing the federal reserve cut interest rates they see m2 money supply expanding i think they see the regulatory changes that are being made they see companies like micro strategy buying you know billions of dollars there's many copycats now that are popping up uh there's rumors that sovereign wealth funds now are starting to buy i explicitly know that there are you know very well-known sophisticated kind of wall street legends that are actively uh trying to solicit these sovereign wealth funds and countries to buy bitcoin um and so it's just like you add all this up and you're like it's pretty hard to make a bearish argument for bitcoin over the next you know five or ten years uh and so it's fun to talk about like how high could it go but i actually just think SPEAKER_68: of like what's the best you know kind of counter argument it's just really hard to kind of identify SPEAKER_89: one right now so that to me is a great set of arguments for potential increased appreciation SPEAKER_17: of the price of bitcoin which is great for people who hold it huzzah i'm curious like how much do crypto startups benefit from the same tailwinds is it one-to-one or is it a fraction of the benefits that we've seen in terms of the price of bitcoin from this change in sentiment and tailwinds it's a SPEAKER_92: great question so um there's a couple ways that people benefit one of the things that is like least SPEAKER_79: discussed is most of the companies that we have invested in in kind of bitcoin or crypto you know world that are private companies some portion of their balance sheet they're holding whether it's bitcoin eth you know some asset that is not a stable coin and some of them did it at a necessity they're in the business they're you know constantly moving assets back and forth or whatever some of them did it for the same reason that microstrategy did it they said hey look we don't believe in the dollar you know as a store of value we think bitcoin's better and so let's put it you know 20 or something like that those companies obviously have a lot more you know assets on their balance sheet than they did three years ago and so i think that's kind of like one very clear simple uh reason another thing is take a company like coinbase as the price goes up people come into these assets because they want to get rich and i think one of the like maybe lies of bitcoin and crypto is uh everyone starts with this like moral argument i don't know a single person that came into bitcoin it's like i'm buying it for humanity at first i think everyone shows up and like i want to make money like my friend told me to buy this thing it's going to go up in price now over time do i agree that yes there's a bunch of people who kind of go from speculator and they get converted to like hardcore bitcoiner and they hold it not just for speculation purposes but they kind of buy into the bigger story and ethos and all that absolutely but when people first come in they're coming in from a capitalistic you know kind of self-interest standpoint and so that's great for a business like coinbase like they want trading volume they want to see a lot of turnover in the market and so i think that there's you know money being made there and then maybe the third bucket is um these assets and bitcoin maybe in particular the higher the price goes the less risky it becomes because it started out so small and so you know we managed a fund a couple years ago uh that had the very first two public pension funds in the united states who gave us money and part of the fund's mandate was we were going to go buy bitcoin on their behalf now one of the things after they gave us the money is we wouldn't talk to a bunch of other pension funds and they said this is too small like it's still risky because it's only you know a couple hundred billion dollars now it's two trillion dollars and they're like oh okay like cool i can put like real money into this thing it's actually de-risk which is very different than like a stock you know nvidia is like is it risky is it not because the price keeps going up and so i just think that you know a number of these different things have kind of lined up where it's like we're kind of in the golden years right now of bitcoin where the return is still pretty attractive compared to stocks etc that probably goes away at some point you know 15 20 years from now maybe bitcoin's going up 10 a year instead of 50 percent and people are like ah it's you know just like stocks um but also those large pools of capital are able to come in SPEAKER_95: because they can come in they obviously are going to drive the price higher when you got a finite SPEAKER_98: uh asset you know i think the there's there's two different markets here there's bitcoin and then there's crypto right it's like and you've said this from the beginning like this is bitcoin is one thing well everything in crypto we'll talk about in a minute but just as we wrap up here on bitcoin SPEAKER_01: before we get to hak tua and rip ripple and everything else going on there um which i'm really interested to get your take on the bitcoin you have sailor who has been like you know a convert for the last four or five years and just really really is going all in i'm hearing different things SPEAKER_34: from ogs in bitcoin who are saying like a lot of them are saying they have concerns with this level of promotion this level of uh aggressive promotion some might call it uh pumping um other people might SPEAKER_08: call it a ponzi so there's that sort of like optics of what he does every day just telling other people like you got to mortgage your home and put it all in bitcoin then there's the other piece which is SPEAKER_29: the leverage he's using okay and so i want you to address each of those in whichever order you want you have concerns about either of these which i've always considered red flags independent of crypto bitcoin or michael saylor when i hear somebody pumping something too much i get concerned i get SPEAKER_34: interested too uh and then on the other side you know using leverage i'm always super concerned about SPEAKER_08: leverage because i've seen friends and companies get wiped out using leverage and loans take it either SPEAKER_103: way you want pop maybe let's just start with like kind of caveat the whole conversation nothing nobody SPEAKER_79: that i know in bitcoin says 100 of things that every other bitcoiner is like you're right it's an industry where everyone is constantly critiquing each other which is you know somewhat of a like a meritocratic um free market of ideas and that's what makes bitcoin so great is like people show up and you know there's two types of people there's the like hey i've been in bitcoin for five minutes let me like teach you guys how to fix this thing those people tend to kind of get washed out but then there's people who show up and they're like hey by the way i'm trying to learn about this i have this like unique idea can someone help me can can you help me like think through this and you know i can point to a number of different people have shown up over the years um and that unique idea actually people are like you know what we hadn't thought about that before but like that's a great idea what if you did this what if you did that and like they kind of extended the body of understanding grows with these new entrants because they bring fresh perspectives experiences etc that's it's actually a really interesting point yeah so you know it's it's open source right it's like you can have an open source developer join an open source project and contribute and you're like why didn't we think of that before well it's like because SPEAKER_58: you didn't know and nobody can stop them it is permissionless in fact if i want to get into bitcoin SPEAKER_44: and i say listen i think what sailor is doing is crazy here's what i'm going to do then i get to test SPEAKER_29: it two ways in the battlefield of ideas debating it with a gazillion trolls and spam and 4chan and reddit and true believers and optimistic people pessimistic people you get the whole range full-on SPEAKER_34: combat but then you also get to place a bet and then own or not own your bet and in the case of SPEAKER_01: michael sailor the bets paying off right now so he's bitcoin jesus whereas when it what when he when SPEAKER_08: his nav i believe there was a moment in time where the value of micro strategies was less than the bitcoins he owned is that correct do you remember that moment i don't remember exactly but definitely SPEAKER_79: the market cap drew down significantly um after having gone up a lot but okay here's what i would say about sailors you know i've gotten to know him well specifically the strategy yeah the strategy yeah but but here here i think to understand the strategy you got to understand the person right so okay i've gotten to know him um probably you know more than than some folks uh i think just like anyone um people will agree with some things he says will disagree with other things that he says um i think that the concern from some of the og bitcoiners is um some of the things that have to occur for mainstream adoption or antithetical to the bitcoin ethos so wall street pulling bitcoin into the financial products doesn't sound like peer-to-peer electronic cash right and so you get these kind of paradoxes of if SPEAKER_68: you want it to be super successful you are going to have to understand that it's available to anyone and so countries are going to buy it the system is going to buy it hey startups when you're a business SPEAKER_07: you got to treat your customers right unreasonable hospitality is the standard today but you're going to need tools you're going to need a platform to help you do this and that platform is the zendesk suite the zendesk suite is going to give your startup all the tools you need to deliver exceptional customer experiences so you can build stronger relationships without growing your headcount that's key right every dollar matters you got to control headcount you got to control spend so use the tool that shopify squarespace uber and instacart all rely on it's called zendesk let's take a look at another customer unity very famous company they saved 1.3 million dollars with zendesk automations and self service and they saw an 83 increase in their first response time these companies love zendesk because it's so easy to set up and it scales with you as you grow they'll also give you all the metrics to make your reporting easy keeping you and your business agile and investor ready and that's because you're their esteemed customer and they've created the zendesk for startups program just for you where you get unlimited access to all the zendesk products expert insights all the best practices and entry into their amazing community of founders all at no cost for the first six months that's right they want to support you zendesk.com twist get ready to scale with the best in customer support with SPEAKER_79: six months free nothing to lose the second thing is um when people you know kind of loudly talk about this uh it is probably a net positive i i would argue that you know uh bitcoin is a decentralized organization there's no executive team there's no board of directors there's no marketing team etc and so i always say that bitcoin's price is the marketing campaign when the price goes up everyone talks about it when everyone talks about it people are like oh i don't know any maybe i should learn about this thing maybe i should buy some word of mouth spreads and it becomes this like reflexive cycle so the price going up is actually really important because price goes up people speculate by coming in when the price crashes in the future some portion of those people stick around i always say that it's kind of like a mobile app that goes out and they have zero users they run a marketing campaign 100 people come in then 25 turn but they're left with 75 people so what do they do they go run SPEAKER_112: another marketing campaign right and some of those churn and like over time they kind of build up the SPEAKER_98: floor in a way right you build this like foundation of people who will never sell and i think you made SPEAKER_29: a really astute point earlier which is as the price goes up and the distance between your entry price and the price of bitcoin goes up then your concern about a drawdown becomes i don't know less because SPEAKER_35: you've been through it it's like i've been on this roller coaster you know we got in at you know under SPEAKER_12: 100 right around 100 and right above 100 you get in at that price if it's 10 000 or 100 000 i really don't care because i believe in the story and that you should have some percentage of your net worth in SPEAKER_08: it so who cares we all know it goes up and down 80 percent but if you bought in at 100 obviously and then you got scared when it went to 50 yeah it's kind of a bummer to lose half your money so here SPEAKER_67: here's where i think it becomes pretty interesting is if you look at um you know again let's take the SPEAKER_79: critics of microstrategy and sailor uh on one hand he said a couple of things that i think make some bitcoiners kind of say yeah i don't know about that uh and so which would be what what does SPEAKER_36: he say that i think the one that is in the group chats that people are like ah come on dude i think SPEAKER_68: the one that people are probably like hey this is the kind of craziest one is if the united states SPEAKER_79: buys you know 20 of the supply or whatever like they'll control bitcoin and i actually want to give him kind of the benefit of the doubt uh he understands how bitcoin works in the sense of uh just because you own a lot of coins doesn't mean you control the network but i think that it is the uh kind of thought process behind that of like decentralization is really important now um what is interesting to me about microstrategy is it's kind of like hey don't hate the player hate the game right and it's like anyone could have gone and done this he's just the guy who won figured it out and then you know what he probably doesn't get enough credit for yet is like you kind of have to have the balls to be able to go and execute on it and so there's a lot of people who you know if you go and you talk to like a stanley drunkenmiller he would tell you the thing that he learned from george soros and became the best investor blah blah blah whatever is it's not how often you're right it's how much SPEAKER_131: money you make when you're right right so it's like the big pots will define your night as a poker SPEAKER_29: player you could yes you could win 20 hands and i win the right too and those two were all in hands et cetera and you're one of these 20 stealing the blinds hands that's not what matters it matters SPEAKER_135: when there's a big pot and how much money you got into the pot and you built a pot and you execute SPEAKER_68: correct if you take this kind of further out if you think of the greatest trades that people talk SPEAKER_79: about today there's soros and druck breaking the pound there's the you know um maybe you've got the guys who did the housing short and they made uh you know i think john paulson made like 10 billion dollars or something for his investors uh got michael bury like there's maybe we can come up with like 15 or 20 great trades sure 10 billion is like probably the biggest number i've heard someone made on one of these big trades yeah if sailor is right he's going to make hundreds of billions which would make this the single greatest trade in corporate history now again caveat or assumption of like he's got to be right so far he is but i think that that is the part to me that everyone wants to focus on like the activity but it is the like i'm not going to take my foot off the gas and i'm fully convicted SPEAKER_137: i'm going like all in that is really i mean we're all investors like it's very very hard to say i have SPEAKER_138: an idea and i'm going to go big the criticism is he's using other people's money to do this he's raising SPEAKER_98: you know three four billion dollars and if he if he loses he wins and if he wins he wins you know SPEAKER_141: it's kind of like kind of because i think he's the largest shareholder of microsoft individual SPEAKER_79: shareholder of microstrategy so like again you know it's his company he's got control he's got a big percentage now he did also uh publicly come out when he bought bitcoin with the company and say he personally bought 250 million dollars at the time uh of bitcoin so again that doesn't mean he's running like a leverage strategy personally but he at least put his own cash into the same asset that the SPEAKER_11: company did you know whatever so could blow up here i guess is what everybody wants to know because when i hear everybody say this is like i figured out the money machine i unlocked the safest bet it SPEAKER_34: can only go up there's no losing here and he's kind of tipping into that level of there's no downside SPEAKER_86: here i like uh i completely disagree with the whole like there's no risk and i've publicly said you SPEAKER_79: know in different conversations um when i hear people saying there's no risk which i don't think SPEAKER_147: he said i think there's a lot of people who hold microstrategy stock that are saying it yes we've seen them on all over x in every single video when i hear that yes when i hear that i immediately say to myself red flag like like you know you don't got to be around that long to know when somebody says SPEAKER_112: there's zero risk that yes all that now let me walk through maybe to kind of use an extreme to SPEAKER_79: prove the point to start if bitcoin gets hacked and becomes worthless is there a risk to micro shed obviously so i use an extreme very low probability you know thing to just show that there's you can't say there's zero risk because i just gave you a scenario where we all agree like there's some risk again it might be 0.001 but there's some risk now let's go back to something that maybe is more realistic there's key man risk if michael saylor something happens to him if he says hey i'm done i want to retire or whatever like that introduces risk it's no different than name a company that had a really well-known founder steve jobs yeah i mean we just go through the list right and so it's like okay like that becomes a risk the second thing is um there's two ways to look at the quote unquote premium one is that uh the bitcoin is trading or i'm sorry the market cap is trading at a premium to the bitcoin which is some of the premium but i also think what people are doing is they're looking at it and they're saying hey if he keeps getting convertible debt that converts at a 50 plus premium and he's able to buy bitcoin he's essentially creating like accretive value to the balance sheet which would look very similar to quote unquote revenue but because of gap accounting we can't call it revenue doesn't count as revenue but in that we are going to give him a multiple so that if he continues to do this he'll like grow into the valuation so there's two things that are leading to that you know kind of market cap above the the nav one is a premium of nav and then there's like a yeah i don't know like new revenue multiple whatever so immediately what's the risk well like the premium to nav closes and maybe that's only like a one x even though it's trading at like three or four x you know multiple yeah and then ve something happens in the market where he can't go buy more bitcoin people won't lend them money or the stock price crashes or you know like there's all these different scenarios and so now all of a sudden that multiple collapses and so i just think that um you know there's a lot of good but to your point um if i hear no risk i mean like there's risk SPEAKER_17: and then you didn't go over the most important risk though which is that the price of bitcoin declines sharply all the convertible notes have um the option for the lenders to request their money paid back a year before they mature in cash so if he i mean he could end up short on money and have to sell SPEAKER_168: lots of bitcoin if the price declines all right founders if you're running an ai startup you already SPEAKER_00: know it's all about compute power ai models need data they need training and gpus lots and lots of gpus but here's the thing all these traditional cloud platforms can be a nightmare to manage and to scale and that's where digital ocean comes in digital ocean is the cloud platform that helps you scale faster SPEAKER_07: without headaches and with digital ocean you can quickly spin up gpu-powered virtual machines and start training models even building ai agents and obviously crunching all these massive data sets in just seconds and when you're done you can turn those virtual machines off as quickly as you spun them up and they're going to let you scale compute power based on your precise needs without making man a massive massive hardware investment including offerings from single gpu configurations to setups with eight gpus digital ocean keeps infrastructure so simple with an intuitive ui robust documentation and on-demand support you could spend your time building the next big thing not managing infrastructure digital ocean is your best choice because it's simple scalable and cost effective right now approved listeners can SPEAKER_00: get up to one hundred thousand dollars in free credits and gpus at special discounted rates of a dollar 90 per hour that's a 20 discount in addition to the free credits visit do.co twist to get started and SPEAKER_109: view terms and conditions that's d o dot c o slash twist so i don't think that that's a risk yet it could SPEAKER_79: become a risk to the scenario you prove um sure but if if i understand correctly and i'm not in i don't spend a ton of time looking at you know kind of the up-to-date numbers because i know they just bought another like two billion dollars of bitcoin um but i believe that bitcoin would have to crash like more than 80 percent to be at a level that is equivalent to the debt they'd have to pay back so bitcoin has done SPEAKER_44: that before yeah instead of four times yeah right so maybe 75 percent yeah four major drawdowns he's got 400 000 bitcoin 402 000 last number i have um at a hundred thousand of bitcoin that's 40 billion SPEAKER_11: dollars company's worth 80 90 billion he's i think it's about 90 billion right now and then the debt load right now is 7 billion i think is the last number they keep adding so just just use um just use 40 and 7 SPEAKER_79: right like basically he'd have to go through a 75 plus drawdown for the bitcoin to be worth the debt and then like he'd have to liquidate it all to pay back the debt but even if bitcoin drew down 75 he still would have the cash to pay back the debt now he would have no other assets right i think your point alex but there's like well there's enough of a uh gap between the money owed and what the bitcoin is worth today where he could weather a 50 drawdown and still 50 drawdown from yeah so if the asset SPEAKER_00: the company if you take the debt out of the 90 billion let's say it's worth 87 billion right now he's got an 80 billion dollar company 40 billion in bitcoin yeah if it goes down 50 so bitcoin's trading at 45 50 000 probably i think that's probable i don't know if it's the you know the majority case but it's a probable case then he would have his stock price would decline to probably 20 billion because he's you know getting two for one right now double the nav he would have to start selling some bitcoin i think to pay off that seven billion then the amount he would have to sell if he had 20 billion in bitcoin would be 35 of his bitcoin to pay them back so he'd still own two out of three bitcoins but you have to sell a thousand in that scenario it went down to 25 billion you'd have SPEAKER_12: to sell even more you have to sell maybe two-thirds of his bitcoin and then you really start to get what i think would be a spiraling confidence and now uneducated people are saying on reddit and social SPEAKER_29: it will just raise more money and i'm like do you not know how debt works like people will give you money if it's going up but if it's going down they're not going to want that debt you can't SPEAKER_08: just refinance like yeah that's like refinancing a home that you overpaid for and the market crashed 30 for homes and you go to a lender and you're like can i get a loan at that price and it's like yeah no no you can get it at this price if you pay down that debt there is a risk of ruin here i don't know SPEAKER_79: if it's 10 or 20 percent it's not zero i think my point is that we would have to see a crash in bitcoin's price that we have not seen in 10 plus years for the current yeah because here's the thing 50 right like no no no no no because forget the forget the market cap of the uh company because that's basically just a made-up number right just take he's got 40 to 45 billion dollars of bitcoin whatever that number is let's say 40. he's got seven billion dollars of debt so right now if he just said hey i'm gonna pay off the debt he'd end up with 33 billion dollars of bitcoin right but if bitcoin's price draws down 75 so he's got 10 billion of bitcoin and he's got 7 billion of debt he could SPEAKER_68: still pay it off and end up with 3 billion dollars of bitcoin so what i'm saying is like the price of SPEAKER_79: bitcoin has to draw down so significantly could it happen 100 we saw bitcoin drop from 69 000 to 16 right so like these drawdowns happen but i think that the bigger risk is not that as much as it is uh because even in that scenario like he just pays back the debt he ends up with no bitcoin but like he's no kind of no worse off than uh he was before that was my point of like if we win i win and if we SPEAKER_98: lose i'm winning anyway because i own my own personal bitcoin and i'm getting paid every year to do this SPEAKER_93: i do think the thing that gets like most companies though that's like most public companies though SPEAKER_00: right well to a certain extent yeah you just gave up your time as a human being on planet earth when you could have been doing something else but here's the thing he's asking people to buy his stock SPEAKER_12: and the people buying his stock the public i am like you and i are looking at it from the michael sailor perspective which i think is great that you're pointing that out like how does he lose but how does this stock when this how does the shareholder in microstrategies lose i think that they're on a path to lose in the midterm short to midterm because people are starting to realize i could buy two bitcoin two and a half bitcoin three bitcoin depending on the moment in time for SPEAKER_112: every share of microstrategies i buy with no risk yes true uh and i think that most people should just go buy bitcoin uh and not worry about kind of all the high finance and multiples and all that kind SPEAKER_79: of stuff and it's like i've just said it forget it whatever yeah now with that said this idea of like bitcoin yield the ability to generate more bitcoin per share again this is new if it ends up SPEAKER_86: being what they're saying i think there's a lot of people who will start to say like oh wow we should figure out how to also tap into this um the question though is that's all predicated on the ability to raise more capital in the future to buy bitcoin right do that okay that is alex see this is the SPEAKER_29: problem alex i think is i believe what sailor is doing with this bitcoin he owns the bitcoin yield yeah i believe that this is a metric whenever i see new metrics adjusted ebitda community-based ebitda from we were that has been indicative of fraud or ponzi schemes in the past when i see a new metric come that is like 10 red flags for me because why do you need a new metric to understand what the value of a company is and i feel like that's the one yeah he's using to manipulate people and you know i don't know if he's doing it intentionally or whatever but trying SPEAKER_34: to get people to think about like how many shares you own of micro strategies and that's better than SPEAKER_12: owning your own bitcoin if you had a million dollars right now and i said pump you have to buy bitcoin SPEAKER_21: or micro strategies what would you do with the million dollars if you on a dollar basis how much would SPEAKER_12: you buy directly own your keys how much would you buy in micro strategies and if a friend of yours a family member said the same thing i got a million dollars it represents whatever five percent of my net worth you know and i just want to put it's worth 10 it's 10 percent of my net worth i'm worth 10 million i believe in bitcoin i want to my a million dollars worth i'll dollar cost average it how would SPEAKER_21: you tell your brother sister cousin to allocate it to micro strategies or buying bitcoin directly bitcoin SPEAKER_86: in particular is fascinating to me because if i go talk to people on wall street they will say it's SPEAKER_68: the riskiest asset they own if i go talk to people in the crypto world they'll tell me that it's boomer coin and it's like the least risky asset that they own so it sits in the coin yes it's boomer coin SPEAKER_79: that's amazing for the crypto people right now here's why that's interesting to me if you look at what can go up more on a percentage basis then you're going to end up in meme coin land like these things can go up thousands of percent and like it's amazing but if you look at it as a risk reward what is the risk i'm taking what is the confidence level i have that it's going to work and what is the amount of size that i can put into it then bitcoin is like very attractive and so what i normally tell people is if you don't own bitcoin you should probably in satoshi's words like get some in case it SPEAKER_192: catches on and then from there if you want to go and say hey i'm gonna take five percent of my portfolio and go speculate on your favorite stock micro strategy meme coins but knock yourself out SPEAKER_01: but like okay so you would tell a family member 950 into bitcoin 50k into micro strategies or hawk to a coin or whatever else you want or or go play the lottery go to lost like do whatever you SPEAKER_201: want right like yeah exactly and again like that that isn't a knock against a certain stock or a SPEAKER_34: coin or whatever it's just like no i think it's such an important point though you every single person SPEAKER_29: i know who has been in the bitcoin game for any period of time says they would tell their family member do not buy micro strategies buy bitcoin own it your keys your coins that basic philosophy i think SPEAKER_34: it's very important for people to know anybody who's listening to this if you own micro strategies two to one for a bitcoin sell your micro strategies immediately and buy two bitcoin that's my jason said that i'm not saying that but jason said that and i think if we're sitting here in five or ten years SPEAKER_12: i will say right now i believe there's an 80 90 90 chance plus that two bitcoins outperforms the one bitcoin in micro strategies if you put a million dollars into micro strategies right now and a million dollars in bitcoin i believe if you know and you get two bit in the nav is two to one man i think it's like so obvious right now that this thing is overheated i think you should get maybe ten percent five ten fifteen percent above the value of the bitcoin that you know minus the debt that i think is reasonable you know like listen vcs get paid 20 carry like yeah whatever or you know if you're a money manager you get like one percent of like the you know which winds up being 20 of the SPEAKER_00: gain right you get one point of the five so it's 20 actually so it feels like 10 20 30 is the amount SPEAKER_12: money managers should get on a device or a capital allocator should get on a device not 2x it's a bit SPEAKER_01: crazy anyway pomp you're awesome everybody uh go into your podcast player since you're there right now and subscribe to pomp's podcast it's amazing he's honest he's always been candid he's always kept it a buck he keeps it 100 and just a great follow on twitter your twitter handle is again a pompliano SPEAKER_210: there it is thank you guys thank you so much for coming on appreciate you and we'll we'll continue SPEAKER_17: the uh discussion all right bye i want to make i want to make a point about bitcoin yield because you said something very interesting there jason you said that when people invent a metric it's a red flag hard agree so i want to put a hypothetical to you because i think this would solve the problem for me so instead of calling it bitcoin yield if sailor had said hey we're going to start tracking the bitcoin to float ratio to see how good of a job we're doing to make your shares worth more bitcoin would that bother SPEAKER_34: you i mean it would be like a price to earnings ratio or a price to sales ratio and sure that would that would totally be intellectually honest i believe that sailor is not being intellectually honest when you combine that to his with his relentless promotion i believe that's the recipe for disaster SPEAKER_12: here now that doesn't mean disaster is going to come that doesn't mean i think he's running a ponzi it doesn't mean i think he's a fraud none of that i believe he's such a believer in this that he and he has like a mania about him right so people who are manic like that sometimes they change the world sometimes they're elizabeth holmes right sometimes they're ftx sometimes they're steve jobs yes and so what you have to do when you look at a situation like this when somebody is that manic when they're that enthusiastic when they start making up their own metrics and they're living in their own world which i believe michael sailor is living you can kind of see it in how he speaks he is like living in an alternate timeline where he has seen the future he's like a guy who's come back from the future and you know what he's been in the business for a long time i understand that sometimes when you've been in the business a long time you think you can see clearly like yep this is a straight shot SPEAKER_34: he believes it's a straight shot to you know a hundred x from here therefore if you do believe it's a straight shot to a hundred x and i sent you back in time and i said get coins going to trade at ten million each and it's a hundred thousand now what would you do i would sell the house to sell the cars to sell everything yeah yeah which he literally said in a video there's a famous viral video where he says and they've clipped it to kind of manipulate it a little bit okay i think in SPEAKER_01: fairness to him that viral video was like if you believe in bitcoin the right thing to do is to SPEAKER_34: mortgage everything sell every asset you have and just put it into bitcoin if you believe in it and it does give that caveat but there is a much better path here if you do believe in what he's doing which i believe is to own the bitcoin directly if it was ten percent more or twenty SPEAKER_12: percent more i'd say fine put twenty percent one in five bitcoins into michael saylor's hands maybe he's got some magic leverage machine and he's going to have some tremendous advantage over you just holding it but at two or three x i think it would be the height of foolishness to buy a micro strategy share over buying directly that's what i think i think he's got so far to go in closing this gap of yield and you know his leverage i think he do you want to be the person closing the gap for him or do you want to be the person who takes advantage of the gap so if you bought him when the nav was under you were smart if you buy it when it's two or three x i think you're the sucker at the table SPEAKER_17: at the same time yeah would i short it hell no no never bet against people being irrational because you'll get your face ripped off and thrown in the dumpster i'm just gonna watch yeah i would SPEAKER_236: one last tiny thing on this i thought it was very by the way let me just ask you a question here just SPEAKER_238: check my logic here because people are saying like i'm a hater or whatever is there anything i'm saying here that you can find any breaks in my argument or any bias in it i mean listen i know you work for SPEAKER_29: me so you're biased but you are an independent person who could be employed by anybody you're not going to like just yes me to death here as we've seen in previous episodes you got your own opinions SPEAKER_240: is there anything in my argument any chink in the armor any achilles heel in what i'm saying please tell me if there is audience and alex and chat room no actually if this was uh you know the alex has SPEAKER_14: opinions our show and you know it was by myself i think i'd be ruder about this right so i think SPEAKER_17: you're probably you know a little bit measured because i think what we want to do is leave space that there's something we're missing now i i don't see what that could be in this particular case but i don't think that i'm omniscient and i don't think that you're omnipotent so i think between the two of us we're going hey why not buy your own bitcoin but maybe whoever's machine is a great SPEAKER_29: way to make money in the near term great chance for us to check the chat room anybody in the chat room if you're on youtube if you're on x if you're on linkedin please go ahead and uh let's discuss SPEAKER_240: if we got something wrong here let's discuss if i got something wrong is there something i got wrong SPEAKER_247: here please let us know i'm reading through the chat right now for a phone we'll take a second here SPEAKER_08: it's okay uh and we are coming to you every monday wednesday friday in 2025 12 p.m texas time 1 p.m alex east coast and 10 a.m left coast aka the pacific uh here in the united states you can find us at twi startups on all the major platforms and our youtube channel go subscribe hit the bell if you hit the bell you get a notification and you become part of the nodi gang and if we scroll up we can read some members of the nodi gang as well who got in here first i always like to know who got in here first alex uh and then if they have any great questions yeah well i know i'm just kind of SPEAKER_17: um i'm laughing that people are saying that we've beat this horse to death sailor's a smart guy who granted is definitely taking a big risk but we want good vibes jcal back apparently we're being we're being too much of a pessimistic okay so i don't see anything in here that actually uh underpoints our theory i will say yes if you are a capital pool that does not have access to bitcoin through one of the eight trillion ways you can now get access to it directly maybe micro strategy does deserve a premium that's why jason says maybe 10 to nav sure um last thing on this jason for me is very simple he said that there's some people in uh crypto who are a little bit annoyed that bitcoin is becoming so institutionalized and brought into wall street and so forth i think that's a really good point i find it very funny that i now buy the future of money the revolution against the system in my fidelity account that just strikes me as ironic like haha wall street one um but we should move on SPEAKER_39: jason and a lot of topics to cover yeah you know one thing i wanted to um yeah one thing i just wanted SPEAKER_21: to bring up um i found this when i was researching paul atkins and we didn't get a chance to talk about SPEAKER_12: this i think but here is um commissioner paul atkins uh from the sec in 20 in april 20th 2007 conference co-sponsored by the american enterprise institute and the brookings institute right SPEAKER_01: these are famous um places that uh you know people go to give talks and you know my pet peeve with the SPEAKER_261: sec is accreditation ah okay so here we go can you see my screen i'm gonna make i can't okay SPEAKER_134: let me see if i can make it one size bigger maybe that's just too big something it's good to read SPEAKER_08: here right i'm at a good size so in this speech he talks about uh accreditation it turns out in 2007 this was a major topic and he says here let me highlight it with my mouse uh the concepts of economic risk in return also affect a different proposal of the commission relating to private investment funds specifically part of the commission's proposal would add an additional SPEAKER_12: requirement for any natural accredited person to have at least 2.5 million in investments before he or she could invest in private invest in a private investment fund like a hedge fund or a private equity fund other than a venture capital fund so venture capital firm can be accredited but here they were saying hey getting people into hedge funds and private equity in 2007 can you imagine there was such an incredible run-up since then that people could um you know uh participate in he says here SPEAKER_182: the underlying premise for the commission's proposal is that these types of investments are too risky SPEAKER_12: for individuals other than the very rich and remember 2.5 million back then would be like saying maybe five or ten million now you know money's doubled since then at least um therefore we have SPEAKER_182: to presume that the non-rich are either unsophisticated or lack access to sophistication and is simply not tolerable to have these types of people at risk of losing their money on a hedge fund assuming that these premises are true however what evidence does the commission have to support the conclusion that SPEAKER_12: private investment funds are the most risky right that you would on a logical basis you'd have to say well this is more risky than buying an index fund or a venture fund or gambling in vegas which people were SPEAKER_182: allowed to do yep and how does the risk profile of a pooled investment compare to the risk of SPEAKER_17: investing in securities of a single issuer right and just to be clear this means you can take your money right now with no accreditation and put all of your capital into um jason's fly-by-night quote SPEAKER_273: oh you can bet on the jets yes i was thinking more like you could buy one single stock you can bet on David Friedberg: you know you could buy you could buy you know a spac that went to zero sure and then i'll just end SPEAKER_29: many public comment letters expressed i'm getting letters back then press indignation at the SPEAKER_34: commission's proposal one commenter wrote stay out of my wallet stop trying to protect me for myself stop pursuing to know more than i do about my own life risk tolerance and financial sophistication SPEAKER_12: end quote the commission's proposal may very well prevent the non-rich from losing their money in private investment funds but it will also certainly but it also certainly will prevent the non-rich from participating in any upside profits and gains of these funds does this mean the rich get richer while the non-rich should be content to just hold their place in the economic ladder this is not mere not a mere rhetorical question because the so-called smart money investors are allocating increasing amounts of their portfolios to private investment funds as alternative investments although this is still a minor part of their allocation this change in allocation is clearly a market reaction to developments in capital markets i'll end there yes but it's a long way of saying this is my god yeah i'm psyched about this gary gensler out for this guy uh you know they've been slow rolling and dragging the accreditation laws this person clearly gets it if you're an american he's and he's he uses SPEAKER_182: the word sophistication which is what i've been using instead of accreditation which i like if there's a SPEAKER_232: path to sophistication which the sec has been charged with doing but they will not do because i think they're SPEAKER_227: slow rolling it maybe this guy maybe my god will go paul big maybe big paulie will go in there and say let's make this fair i believe that this is the way for people to move from one bracket to another why why do i believe this because i did my family did the calacanis family did your family could do SPEAKER_12: this too i'm not saying bet all your money into it but i mean if you had a hundred thousand dollar net worth and you told me you wanted to put five thousand dollars in a private equity fund and five thousand in a hedge fund i'd be like you know what great you're gonna learn something great SPEAKER_212: idea especially compared to what people tend to spend their money on anyways i mean people often think about what are the risks here for someone who might uh you know put their money into the SPEAKER_19: wrong private investment pool or whatever but that person might have put it on to you know fan SPEAKER_18: duel so or hawk do hawk to a coin it's it's dollar sign hawk i believe if you want to look up SPEAKER_17: that blue chip asset and uh put all your money onto it i mean did you go to jail have these people SPEAKER_238: learned nothing did they not see every single celebrity get dinged the last time around remember SPEAKER_34: they all got dinged it was like a parade of everybody who promoted an an ish coin last time SPEAKER_17: what else we got on the docking i'm sorry i just don't know um okay so you wanted to talk a little bit more about the um brian thompson murder case you had a fresh take i just want to say that there was some breaking news this morning um according to news reports there was a 26 year old picked up at mcdonald's in uh pennsylvania had fake ideas including one that the mypd believes was used by SPEAKER_212: the suspect and he had a gun in a similar suspension so i don't want to say that but it certainly looks SPEAKER_98: like they got they got them they got them 99 they found them where we are um so you know now we will SPEAKER_00: go into the you know the eventual end game here to find out you know if he was hired by a state sponsored actor or he's deranged or his parent died of cancer because they were denied coverage or anything in between these possibilities everything is possible here you know i was SPEAKER_08: just thinking about how divisive this issue is uh and i said on the the all in pod uh last week i realized as an individual you know as time goes on you get older maybe get a little bit of resources your perspective is very different my perspective on health care has changed greatly in 20 years i used to be scared about my health care like many americans are today can i cover something it's like a low underlying anxiety you know what i'm saying like a a pervasive fear that my god forbid somebody in my family i'm not going to be able to get them chemotherapy whatever it is you know uh uh some drug they need because they have got some rare disease and so when you become more affluent what happens is your experience with health care becomes a different frustration which is my employees SPEAKER_12: keep complaining about the health care and i'm spending 10 more a year this is infuriating it's like you have the perspective of the person who's been caught in the middle that's been my perspective for 20 years which is cannot believe how much this costs i can't believe when people on my team tell me what their deductibles are etc it's nuts crazy uh to be an employer and have to deal with this stuff SPEAKER_296: you're just flabbergasted but you can always afford to pick the golden plan right yes whereas SPEAKER_00: somebody who is coming up you know 25 year old jay cal 30 years ago in 1994 you know i didn't have SPEAKER_12: health care for 10 years did you put that out there right now i didn't have health care for 10 years SPEAKER_227: when i was running my companies as an entrepreneur i did not have health care think about how crazy that is i was flying without a net for a decade maybe you know on and off sometimes i had it SPEAKER_00: sometimes i didn't eventually we wound up having we had a peo at silicon alley reporter but for many years between sony and that you know when i was you know entrepreneur and then getting out of it i had like maybe a year i paid cobra if you remember that you would have you have a cobra payment i covered SPEAKER_12: myself for a year or two on that so i i i had i don't say a memory hold it i just forgotten it because you're young you don't need health care for god for you know if you're lucky knock on wood you don't need it so i would be like this is such a waste of money i'm healthy i never go to the doctor SPEAKER_11: now i'm older i got sick parents you know i got sick grandparents aunts and uncles i see it all around SPEAKER_08: me and i really think as i've been saying for many years here the employer being wedged into this is a major part of the problem and consumers not being consumers of this product they have no agency when SPEAKER_01: you have no agency there's a famous line um uh which is a man without hope is a man without fear SPEAKER_304: so it's bla it's a daredevil and it does not justify anything murderers murder like go to jail SPEAKER_08: forever we get it but i do understand that the reaction from people is dark yes it's disgusting but i understand it comes from somewhere you know grand frustration here and i think this i don't want to say this is like some rallying cry whatever i don't want to inspire people to do this stuff but do be self-aware you know as an individual of privilege where you are in that journey from you know having this issue abstracted from you right yeah and i have been super aware of it SPEAKER_00: but i haven't had to deal with it right again these dark memes don't do them man this i just find it so disturbing to watch people making light of this person being murdered whatever it turns out to be for him SPEAKER_306: being murdered is just really dark i really don't think people should be joking about it but it is what it SPEAKER_308: is yeah i i have a lot of thoughts about this i mean one right now i'm much in your position jason i SPEAKER_17: have incredible health coverage and no matter what happens to me my family is going to be just fine like literally anything that comes up we're good and that does remove that layer of stress and to put it into my personal context because you did too i recall growing up we basically never had uh we never had vision and uh dental insurance because my dad had his own company and so we had basically just high emergency insurance at best and i remember my mom crying in the car after i would get a cavity or something because she didn't have the money to pay for it in fact the first money i made in journalism jason you know what i did i went home and i got my four front teeth fixed because i never had the ability to have proper dental care um that was corrective at that point so like trust me i've had the crying SPEAKER_39: parents i've had the fear i get it yeah and i think that this moment if we can use it at all for good SPEAKER_17: if there's anything we can get out of this that's positive it's a recognition amongst the the more well-to-do yes that the people who are less well-to-do are struggling they're in pain here and the american healthcare system while we like to beat our chest and say we're the best in the world SPEAKER_317: it's not working for a lot of people not in healthcare we're not i mean we we spend the most SPEAKER_08: get the least i mean congress we're not we're not a frontier market we're not an emerging market but we if you spend the most you should get the most now listen the solutions and the innovations here people come from all around the world so for again once again back to like capitalism capitalism is a rabid competition um and what it has resulted in is we have pre novo and we have these incredible companies and we have cancer blood tests we have incredible stuff in this country but it's capitalism SPEAKER_240: so you kind of pay to play in a lot of cases i think what has to happen is it just has to be a floor SPEAKER_02: and and almost all republicans and democrats and everybody in between i speak to who are in power SPEAKER_08: and who have affluence all feel the same way just build a floor of like a basic amount of health care that everybody gets all the time because we kind of have that already with medicaid medicare and and emergency rooms emergency rooms yeah it's like there needs to be some really great leadership here SPEAKER_12: and some really great competition and i think maybe the states having something to do with this might also be helpful in creating competition i'm just spitballing here sure but you know we have states in competition with each other to land companies etc yeah maybe we need to have the states have their own versions of universal healthcare by a state by state instead of having this be a federal mandate and then there could be efficiencies in each local place and they could run tests and see who does it better and if you did it better then you might draw people to your state because they go this place has the best healthcare i want to move to texas or i want to move to california new york or vermont because they do the best job just like some people might move to a place because you have the best SPEAKER_282: safety or the best education system or the best tax treatment the struggle there that i have is SPEAKER_17: if some states opted out of the strategy that we're describing here they would have a much lower tax basis so all the corporations are going to move to oklahoma which has no health care and all the people want to move to california which does and you're going to end up with a pretty uneven market SPEAKER_212: so that's kind of why i think if we're going to do what you say i hate to say it probably a federal solution versus one that's done by the states otherwise it's going to be super uneven but the federal is just so inefficient and doing everything i just oh it's the only thing we SPEAKER_17: have as a nation that allows for like a full collection of action and i think that the the annoyance you just expressed they're super valid but i think it's the cost of being a big nation we could be more efficient if we were just georgia because we'd be much smaller we'd have what about SPEAKER_324: my point about like the competitive nature of states and like they iterate and you get in a little SPEAKER_17: competition if the floor is set by the federal government and each state gets to fulfill it in their own SPEAKER_332: way oh hell yes i love okay great awesome maybe that's the compromise here yeah all right what SPEAKER_256: else we got on the docket let's okay so jason you threw this in and i had seen the headline about SPEAKER_17: reddit answers and i thought to myself i don't care i was so wrong this is like the coolest thing i've ever seen so yeah all right pull it up show it yeah all right so i'll go ahead and queue it up um this is uh how reddit described its own uh new feature so reddit everyone knows has a deal with google to essentially allow them to ingest reddit's um materials now what reddit is doing here jason is putting together a q a service that curates summaries of relevant conversations and details across reddit essentially it'll pull in what reddit knows about the query you put in it's a q a service we all know what that means what's really interesting to me here is that this is not just reddit building SPEAKER_212: a new feature this is a contra google strategy why should reddit sell off its unique secret sauce SPEAKER_17: to other people for a pittance when it could build its own service that gives people on platform properly leverages its own brand and i think can make tons of money so okay please i'll give you the SPEAKER_08: answer um they have to be careful um because a large percentage of google of their traffic comes from google if google perceives them as a competitor they'll do what they did to me at mahalo and e how and other people which is d index us and move us down google has a rule no indexing of other search like indexes okay so if they perceive reddit as a direct competitor then you know they they really put reddit move reddit up in the results and send them a lot of traffic i think they would be downgraded and so that is a challenge that they're going to have i do think reddit would make a kick-ass search engine because a lot of people go to reddit like they go to amazon and do some number of searches there but the majority of people wind up at reddit through google um but reddit has i think reddit and x have the two best data sets in the world for information i cannot find this but i should SPEAKER_212: have pulled it up beforehand but i think that reddit was a top five search query on google in the SPEAKER_346: last couple of years pen reddit they append quora they append amazon they append twitter mostly append SPEAKER_212: reddit and i think i think that shows how this the center of gravity in finding information online has SPEAKER_17: shifted you need reddit's information and google's search box or do you just need a search box on reddit so i agree google could go nuclear and try to you know downrank reddit one antidote concerns but also two i think that would so dramatically harm google's search quality that it would be a net positive for reddit over a four to eight quarter time frame i swear to you jason reddit's too addictive too popular to be slowed down by google search alone and i think this is absolutely brilliant and i don't think SPEAKER_98: that they could stop them i just think they could give them a a headwind market cap for uh reddit now 29 billion i'm an idiot because i kept talking about how much i loved red and how undervalued i think SPEAKER_01: it is when it was like a third of that price so once again i'm a dum-dum uh because i didn't make the trade i gotta just start making trades whenever i'm passionate about something just tell me did SPEAKER_285: you make a trade shake out so i can keep making trades when you hear me be passionate about them SPEAKER_17: after the show today don't forget to go buy about 10 million worth of micro strategy no that's the SPEAKER_212: opposite that's the opposite oh i'm sorry i mean no yeah please no okay so on the subject of being a SPEAKER_17: dum-dum when i saw this news dug into it my alarm bells went off in my head because i recalled reading through reddit's q3 earnings call previously to learn more about its data licensing business because i was thinking here's an enormous revenue stream for reddit it's going to be amazing and you know what on the earnings call the cfo uh jennifer wong and the ceo steve huffman were incredibly relaxed about data deals um jen wong said we have limited visibility into the timing of additional partnerships steve said i'd say for us it's a nice to have business and then he said this but if we're thinking about the future of reddit it's really our ads business it's search it's more of our kind of on platform initiatives so i really think that during this earnings call they were SPEAKER_14: trying to be like just wait like two months for us to drop this new thing but this explains to me why SPEAKER_17: they haven't landed another seven deals for 60 or 100 million a piece why not already not because SPEAKER_273: because they're doing it themselves i love this one of the coolest things i've seen in the last couple of months i'm just stoked for i'm a long time reddit fan you know yeah i mean it's it's the SPEAKER_02: little website that could they just never stop doing what they do and it really is the lesson founders is because there were two companies dig and reddit launched at the same time they kept trying to be something it wasn't they started competing with like facebook and they kept changing their interface same interface same focus don't change the interface evolve the interface on the margins polish it but don't go too crazy this latest update of you know the ios software is showing how much frustration people have when you change the interface too much and you've got hundreds of millions of SPEAKER_08: people billions of people or even just millions of people who know your product you don't want to make them relearn it etc reddit has been one thing a community to discuss stuff and through pseudonyms the pseudonyms mean you have the same handle forever theoretically you can but you don't have to reveal your identity and so you know your reputation is formed over time from your contributions there are 350 million in revenue ish every quarter they're at 1.4 billion you know the sky's the limit for reddit SPEAKER_12: i believe um i think that the company becomes more and more valuable and i think they're an easy takeout candidate for a hundred billion yeah you know i think somebody's going to come along at some point SPEAKER_00: just say you know too valuable of an asset on in the ai space microsoft google uh xai you know pick any of the major players i think meta is the obvious one since they understand community there's somebody SPEAKER_35: who's going to come in here and start buying you know and uh i thought it was going to be a real gem SPEAKER_14: yeah no i wouldn't say meta because i i feel like this is too competing with other meta products but SPEAKER_17: as a microsoft they have a history of tuck in communities github why not github yeah if they SPEAKER_00: microsoft is the perfect candidate because satya nadella has just great vision in terms of acquisitions and come january 20th it's going to be game on reddit most likely to be acquired i think reddit doordash uber uh and lyft are my four most likely to be acquired in the next uh four years those four SPEAKER_01: will be on the acquire slash merger because some of them might merge or whatever i don't have inside information obviously i don't use public companies this is purely speculation i wouldn't be surprised SPEAKER_02: if reddit lyft doordash and uber were part of something bigger either acquirers acquiree conglomerate put together amazon plus uber waymo plus uber lyft and doordash although i think door i think lyft SPEAKER_08: is kind of like um an anchor because it's so small it would slow people down to be honest it would be SPEAKER_238: better to build from scratch than buy a broken asset i mean i don't say that to be cruel at all sometimes if the asset doesn't have scale yeah and it's up against like giants and it's proven itself SPEAKER_08: to not be able to compete over time there's a reason why lyft didn't get bought during all of this SPEAKER_00: and i've talked to people you know who are kind of i don't want to say insiders but who are analysts of the space they're like it doesn't do anything for another company to buy lyft they could recreate the asset because it's not doesn't have scale whereas doordash and air and airbnb and uber have a scale and when you have a scale and a network effect and 100 million customers whatever it is 50 million customers 150 that scale is worth a lot oh absolutely so i do think uber and doordash and airbnb will be bought in the next four years they'll be part of something bigger i could see amazon specifically uh or google jumping the fence and buying those companies and then spinning them out into other kind of entities waymo plus uber plus doordash would be an amazing amazon competitor conversely amazon buying doordash and uber would then be a massive competitor to waymo because amazon has a lot of bets in self-driving right i think they own zooks or a big portion of zooks or some of SPEAKER_371: these other companies expand the aperture a little bit here let's say you're shopify and you want to build out your last mile delivery business you're lots of money why not tap on lyft i think because SPEAKER_373: you like i said you'd be better off just building it from scratch but if you said shopify and uber SPEAKER_34: or shopify doordash uber yeah now you got something hold on now you've got an amazon competitor you SPEAKER_08: put those three together wow i never really thought about putting you put doordash shopify and uber together uh-huh that's like 80 billion 150 billion what's shopify's market cap so i just pulled them SPEAKER_18: all up so your shopify is 150 flat uber's 139 flat and doordash is 73 and change so you got 375 400 SPEAKER_104: you put those three together for 400 you've got a trillion dollar company by putting them together SPEAKER_17: it's a trillion dollar company i would not mind consolidation there frankly just because it would it would do is is foment a a stronger and better amazon competitor to the degree i think SPEAKER_08: it would help us which proves my point at the end of the wrath upon i've been saying don't allow the trillion dollar companies to acquire anything or maybe you know whatever it is the top 10 just pick let them you know um be able to maybe do tuck-ins but not like the big big or put them under more scrutiny let's say that yeah but then everybody under 500 billion let it rip and take the mag 7 to the mag 17 that's my best advice what else do we got on the docket we got a last docket or we're SPEAKER_17: we're good yeah i want to do uh one more tiny thing which is a bill that's going through congress slowly called the um the kids online safety act or cosa you may have heard about this jason it's been bouncing around for some time uh past the senate back in july there's been concerns in the house there's been work to be done on the bill and then this weekend um everyone's favorite social media ceo uh namely linda yaccarino um came out in in favor of this and i was a little bit surprised to see a social media company come out in favor of this bill um she says essentially that addicts protecting our children is our top priority makes a lot of sense and then she talks about balancing free speech and children's privacy kind of the standard uh debate there so jason i went ahead and i i went through the bill some this morning trying to sort out what are the complaints what are the positives here and my my gist the thing that i kind of walked away with is that this bill is pretty big in terms of what it wants to do in terms of algorithmic transparency letting people opt out of algorithms age verification and so i'm kind of curious if it's indicative of a extra support is indicative of a new trend amongst social media companies that maybe some regulation about things that deal with children defined as 13 and under in this bill is the way forward listen i can tell you SPEAKER_01: you long cares deeply about kids he believes this is like one of his big issues is like population growth he's a family man he believes in kids uh we're friends obviously i don't speak for him not back channeling anything here but it's pretty obvious he he does yeah he believes in protecting SPEAKER_00: kids and who doesn't i think you know x is also in a very unique position it's kind of like an adult social network isn't it uh like i think their position is like this is for world leaders etc whereas SPEAKER_227: i think like instagram and tick tock are for kids instagram and tick tock are for kids when i look at young people going into their teens they all want to be in instagram and tick tock x is not like on SPEAKER_12: their mind they don't want to have like a textual you know debate about ukraine or the stock market or SPEAKER_227: bitcoin like it's that's it's kind of more like it's college right i feel like you you're in college you're on x maybe you i think tick tock and instagram watching teen girls watching pre-teens you know even i know some people let their eight nine ten year olds and i think 100 percent we SPEAKER_00: should go do what australia has done and we'll see how they actually make it work i don't think anybody SPEAKER_227: should be on social media until they're 60 100 it's been proven already it's damaging i don't care about the freedom of speech and the you know debates around that i just know what i see with my own eyes SPEAKER_01: is that you're robbing kids of their childhood if they're on social media and phones and parents SPEAKER_08: cannot fight this war individually we have to do it collectively my hope is that parents realize it's not that these things in and of themselves are damaging i believe they are i believe it's like a kid with developing and social dynamics it's just a little too intense and addictive and they've designed it to be addictive because i know the people who work there i know dave morin he's told me the stories i know everybody sam less and everybody who worked their facebook whatever these guys were obsessed with making it addicting and it obviously is and tick tock is taking to the level the net net net of all this and if you read um what is jonathan hates book gosh SPEAKER_02: sorry my short-term memory anxious generation um and i had him on uh the all in interview series SPEAKER_08: you'll see it over there jonathan hate all and you'll find it it's not just that it's damaging it's that it takes away time with friends it takes away time in nature it takes away time in sports SPEAKER_01: time from reading books time from being creative that's what these phones and devices do to kids limit your time for your kids encourage your school to let kids grow there's let grow is like this organization that he mentions over and over again in the book kids should have phone lockers SPEAKER_21: at school they bring their i just got my 15 year old her birthday was yesterday happy birthday lotus i love you she got her phone you know it's 15 i got her the phone um and she loves it but you know i think they should have phone lockers at schools and the schools that get phone lockers the kids SPEAKER_00: you know there's a little bit of like hand-wringing complaining in the first week and then by the second week it's universal the kids are free from their devices and they look each other in the eyes SPEAKER_227: again and they blossom that's what it should be just like when you go to dinner we now have a thing at poker games or dinner we stack the phones whoever touches their phone first believe that uh has to pay dinner next time you go to dinner i want you to try this this is the jcal test you want to have a great dinner party stack the phones in the table whoever touches their phone first has to buy dinner just a fun thing to do and you could also do a thing where you have like a buy like you know before the SPEAKER_21: entrees after the appetizers everybody can check their phone for two minutes to make sure you know there's nothing going on with the nanny so you have a two minute phone break between appetizers dinner watch how great that dinner party is when you go to dinner stack the phones whoever does it has to pay for dinner and you know what happened at a dinner somebody's like this i'm paying for dinner took their phone back that's amazing free dinner yeah dinner and you know what if somebody else wants to do it now the two of you are paying for dinner and the other three couples are not oh try it it's fun SPEAKER_17: it's a fun thing to do the third person only pays a third the fourth person only pays a quarter so at some point no but i i hear you yeah the difference between uh our dinner parties jason is is how offline my my group here is for example i i had to explain to my spouse what blue sky was this week because she'd never heard of it blue sky yeah i'm on blue sky but i mean but why would she be right right so anyways i had a i was going to make a very different point about this i was going to talk about the duty of care roster and the algorithm transparency and i was going to say jason this really does feel like a very heavy-handed regulatory bill and i thought you were going to take the government out of tech angle but you went what the other way i just think kids are different SPEAKER_238: you know i don't i think you have to treat kids differently when you have a mind that's developing do we want kids you know experimenting with cigarettes vapes cannabis you know having uh gender SPEAKER_08: affirming care and and stuff like that before their brains are fully developed all these very considerate things tattoos you know when you're a parent and your kids start to get to a certain age you realize oh my lord you got to protect the kids they don't have the ability to make great decisions until they're 25 really and we kind of let them loose at 18 and 21. and man i think another thing kids should not be on the hook for these student loans and they shouldn't be irreversible because they're making that decision at that 18 to 20 year old window your brains are not developed you should be able to get rid of them in bankruptcy and then then we would have some worth awfulness about this you know you can't get rid of your student loans in bankruptcy which is the biggest giveaway possible SPEAKER_17: to the lenders thereof no there should be some risk there so that way they won't lend as much and then the cost of college would come down this is this was about as lefty as i think we get on the show i'm sympathetic to everything that you said about children and as a father i absolutely agree i just i struggle to reconcile my general vibes that parents should be allowed to make these decisions versus the federal government um and there is something to be said about if this bill passes because it does not ban social media it merely requires modifications to social media platforms with more than 10 million monthly actives to be clear and there's concerns from the eff and others about the quote duty of care standard and how that could lead to content moderation that's very SPEAKER_39: aggressive van paul's against this a lot of other people um but we'll leave it here where do you SPEAKER_34: stand which part of it where do you stand because i don't believe i don't want to seek content moderation i just want to figure out a way to keep kids off of this stuff well so that that's why i said you SPEAKER_17: short-circuited my entire complaint because i thought this was going to be way too technical way too difficult and leave too much open area for companies to get in trouble different ways and different administrations and so i was going to argue that the way this is set up is kind of a mess your endorsement of the australian approach just precludes all that it just does away with it because SPEAKER_21: then it's not a question yeah i mean so i also think by the way there's like a whole thing about SPEAKER_227: pornography on the internet this idea that porn should be available 24 hours a day to everybody and you know we we you would never allow a kid to go buy pornography in a store but they're this whole generation they've it's really messed with their brains having free access to porn and i know like when i was a kid you know like there was like a playboy magazine you know there's a stack of them hidden on a rooftop in brooklyn we would go when we were 12 or 13 years old and see these pictures we're like whoa no oh my god what these kids are exposed to and their version of that which is they take out their phones and they show people stuff it's like oh my god it's just dark and not what SPEAKER_00: life is about not what sexuality is about it's a little beyond our mandate here but i think we need to do need to think about that and uh you know here in texas uh there's a big controversy because SPEAKER_01: all the uh major pornography adult sites do not allow you to load from ip addresses this stuff because there is a bill and we'll look into it a further episode issue episode but there's some bill SPEAKER_429: here where you're going to have to verify your age in order to look at a pornography site in texas or SPEAKER_431: get a vpn which everybody's really good for vpns it's a screen door you can walk around well it's SPEAKER_34: another level that would i think protect kids etc and you know what i'm open actually to having that discussion i don't know like i'm a freedom of speech guy but i'm not like unlimited access to SPEAKER_435: porn for kids guy maybe i'm becoming like a dad and you know you're starting to sound very much like SPEAKER_17: a california democrat now um i've got a solution for that problem that's the joke there no no no my point is that you sound like someone who's like we can do something about this versus we should not do anything about that which is the more libertarian perspective yes i now i'm libertarian except when it comes to kids i i don't think that that's an uh a bad perspective to take the only thing that i think technologists would raise is how do you want to age verify and then how do you want to let people maintain that verification across devices because it's a non-trivial point um and i don't think that SPEAKER_443: there's a good answer here's a here's a breaking news uh people are making progress with these SPEAKER_344: robots by the way these 30 40k robots check out optimus now walking up and down hills remember David Friedberg: we're making fun of tesla for the optimist you know like being tethered at the first time you showed SPEAKER_08: it in the next year having people standing next to it at the all-in summit we had or all-in holiday party we had a robot there um but look at this it like just we got its footing there it's better than SPEAKER_448: me when i used to drink i'm not gonna lie there's alex leaving the bar no he didn't fall down in the SPEAKER_449: middle of uh highway 101 in san francisco so it doesn't this is the optimist uh you know and so SPEAKER_08: for people who like mock technology like just understand the exponential technology and if you've seen other robotics companies figure out walking up and down hills like yeah ai is going to make SPEAKER_292: these things learn faster and faster and faster and faster and faster and the hardware is already SPEAKER_19: there yeah figure it was from another company that we've talked about on the show a lot uh had a SPEAKER_17: tweet out today about how they're like come work for us we're going to make millions of these things that's the temperature amongst people who are currently working on them and you know elon tweets a lot but he also tweets things that he thinks are the most impactful to his businesses unsurprisingly starship launches and if he's showing off this much optimist it's probably indicative of i know i'm SPEAKER_268: talking to jason but like indicative of where his mind's at is my read of it and that means it's probably doing well so yeah okay awesome we're back on wednesday we're back wednesday wait are we SPEAKER_461: taping an episode tuesday though with uh sandeep to do an ai show tomorrow oh i'm sorry let me SPEAKER_462: rephrase that live news will return on wednesday there should be a sunny ai special tomorrow awesome SPEAKER_02: and i hope we go live with that so for my great producers let's do that thank you to researcher maddie thanks to producer court john and chris and thank you of course to alex wilhelm you can follow him x.com alex and we're just trying to get five percent better a day here tell us what we can do better i'm jason at calacanis.com for live dms open at jason on all platforms pretty much i'm on David Friedberg: blue sky as jason m calicas but i don't have any followers i can't find anybody over there SPEAKER_469: discovery is terrible i'll follow you so you have at least one it's kind of like a clunky version of David Friedberg: like twitter from 10 years ago right is it what yeah is it just like a vote against x and against SPEAKER_29: threads to go there is there some feature that's great that you like or just so far it's only the SPEAKER_17: people i don't i'm not a big block guy so i don't block a lot of people but if you do apparently it's great for that not my jam um i just like to go there because it's like all my friends moved one SPEAKER_304: city over i had to drive to go see them it's so weird yeah that's exactly what it's like it's like oh you SPEAKER_432: moved to the i got and i got it yeah you moved to brooklyn in manhattan if you moved to brooklyn it was like you're excommunicated i'm never going to see you again you're dead i do think um yeah i uh SPEAKER_00: i like the way the new block system works on x and i'll just announce here how blocking works for SPEAKER_12: me okay if you are obnoxious and funny or insightful you're going to get a like and i'm going to engage you if you're obnoxious and insulting but not funny and clever i'm just going to snap block you and SPEAKER_227: then we'll still see each other stuff you just can't participate in a discussion with me so if you say like tds you know whatever whatever if you say like listen i don't think you have tds but i do think you should recognize and this is your blind spots yeah i'm all in right or make a funny joke SPEAKER_12: about my glasses yeah maybe i'll think it's funny but that's a high bar for funny for me uh so just being i want to have intelligent discussions online or funny clever intelligent funny that's my zone of SPEAKER_227: excellence and that's where i like to be i don't want to be with like stupid drive by tweets and by the way if it's an insightful compliment like you you if you give me i'm a sucker for the for the sandwich hey this is i love this i've been listening to twist for 10 years i think you're wrong here's your sandwich and then you say something nice about all in or my investments at the end or my weight loss that's the way to do it folks if you want to get a follow SPEAKER_477: that's like the really gold standard also a great way to deal with feedback for employees if you're a manager i've learned that one the hard way can't go all one way a little better at that myself i SPEAKER_238: was telling a little live about twist 500 i was like we got to do better but then i was like but i think we've done a great job but i think we need to do better so more twist 500 coming on yes after SPEAKER_286: we uh take into account jason's latest changes but they will make it better so everyone get excited we SPEAKER_18: have a list of companies we are preparing to share with you exactly i mean i the goal is i want people SPEAKER_08: to understand that we suffer over every selection and we really understand their business so maybe it requires like an act of journalism maybe we have to put a researcher uh on maybe contacting the founder and asking a couple questions over email and maybe yeah getting some insights or something about it or SPEAKER_292: maybe actually calling the venture capital asking the question we could actually do a random act of SPEAKER_17: journalism i would love i would love to do that we have resources yeah yeah well we'll talk about that offline anyways everybody we adore you we'll be back on tuesday and wednesday and friday goodbye