SPEAKER_01: so i was not going to bring this up sax said bring it up no no no no no no no you're already

SPEAKER_00: creating mischaracterizations you said you want to bring it up i'm like sure i don't i'm not

SPEAKER_01: going to veto it go for it i said well we have to bring up my covid obviously i'm the second bestie to get covid and i told you offline without the other two besties uh i will just say i got it at a social function period end of story you said it's okay to talk about yeah it's not like i

SPEAKER_06: wanted to bring it up you want to bring it up and i'm allowing it because i i'm fine with it so go

SPEAKER_09: for it we all got something at sax's event you got covid i got chlamydia oh you guys went to the

SPEAKER_12: downstairs groups i went downstairs god damn it chamath again you promised it was a great party

SPEAKER_00: all right let's let's hear jason's accusations i've been hearing about it all week it was a great party

SPEAKER_18: nah you've been saying it was a super spreader jason you were angry you were angry and you were

SPEAKER_21: yeah you were really mad at sax because you thought he actually gave you covid even though sax

SPEAKER_23: had people test every single person tested on the way in except you jacal jacal you walked around the

SPEAKER_24: velvet room i have and you said guess what i'm a bestie i don't have to test and you walk right in the party and guess what at the end of the day at the end of the day there's nothing one person that

SPEAKER_31: thought of the rules got it karma's a bitch jaco nothing better personifies poetic justice as what totally i do not place blame on anybody for all year round you rant you rant at sacks you make fun

SPEAKER_34: of him you poke him you poke the bear republican this republic and that it was a republican super

SPEAKER_24: spreader it was a gop super spreader and then you go to his party and you run around the velvet rope and you don't get your test and you go in and you walk out with why should i have to test that was

SPEAKER_37: amazing it was really amazing i don't wait on lines i'm a bestie i think he walked out with covet because i think he walked in with covet there you go he's the only one not to test so who brought

SPEAKER_42: it in i did test my daughter and i came to your wonderful party it was amazing it was delightful and we tested and no you didn't when when you got 100 percent tested you told us you didn't exactly

SPEAKER_47: you were either lying then or you're lying then or you're lying now which one i was joking then i

SPEAKER_01: hundred percent tested with my daughter joking you're telling the truth was on the line testing with me i had the bracelet i tested a hundred percent when i asked you when you got into the

SPEAKER_51: party and i said how'd your covet test go you said oh i pulled my bestie card i walked around i pulled

SPEAKER_37: my best that's not true that's true that's what you said that you guys are ganging up on me and making

SPEAKER_57: up now no you said that okay i may i may have made a joke but hold on guys and then i find out the

SPEAKER_58: reason why jade wasn't at the party she was home taking care of two sick kids no she wasn't we yes

SPEAKER_62: she was one kid so how do we know that it wasn't you okay we know i know it was you fredo i know it was you fredo you broke my heart all right here's what happened i went to the party

SPEAKER_41: uh i did test there was a group of people that got there early had tested at another event they told me this they had tested before they got there and they told me that they had accidentally brought it with them because they were the first to have a positive test result so in all likelihood it was that group there's no it doesn't matter who brought it because omnicrom omnicron is going

SPEAKER_58: everywhere what is it omnicron it's a it's a character from i don't understand that what do you mean they brought it with them if they tested negative they came from another location

SPEAKER_41: they tested they claimed they tested then they were the first to come up that next day with a positive result it takes longer than 24 hours to incubate you're right so that means they must have brought it with them they they tested on sunday and had it they were negative at the door they did not test at

SPEAKER_47: the door they told me they told me they tested the day before or two days before everybody was tested

SPEAKER_85: the door including vendors there were people who were turned around positive who didn't test oh

SPEAKER_90: you're trying to blame it on no i specifically have tried to not say the person's name and you're trying to include them it's gonna get bleeped out it doesn't matter they were all negative at

SPEAKER_37: the time of the party you hosted a super spreader they didn't get it till like five days later so they were not the earliest to test you tested positive you had symptoms before they did remember

SPEAKER_91: the tickle in the throat guys remember when he said last week he had the tickle in the throat

SPEAKER_93: anyway thank you for giving me um omicron i am now super according to all results i am now superman

SPEAKER_01: have you tested negative now not yet i did a test yesterday nine days later i'm still coming up positive i had two days of symptoms not that any of you give a you rat bastards that you just laugh about my covet nobody had no point in this conversation did any of you say how are you

SPEAKER_98: feeling was there any chance of death was there any chance i was triple vax i had done moderna

SPEAKER_100: yeah at any point though did you feel like oh shit i may have to go to the hospital i may

SPEAKER_58: need to know no that's too bad i felt the tickle in my throat on tuesday symptoms he coughed three times he sneezed twice and prematurely ejaculated once those were his symptoms

SPEAKER_112: this is going to be our prediction show last week we did of course our 2021 bestie awards uh how did everybody feel about last week's awards i think it was great i listened to the edit quite well yeah i was

SPEAKER_117: happy it was a fun show i think we um we all got to kind of talk about stuff we wanted to talk about and uh and it was pretty dynamic i thought it was good show i liked it it was like a greatest hits

SPEAKER_120: so uh we're gonna do some predictions for next year are you gonna do a drum roll and a and a little

SPEAKER_34: scene as well yes okay here we go here's an opening but it's gotta be like flying into the future

SPEAKER_127: like going through space warp speed warp speed

SPEAKER_112: through the air warp wormhole yeah other side of the universe here we are in 2022 biggest political winner 2022 what did tucker call since former writers uh tell you to say sex

SPEAKER_138: people were intrigued about what was the second battle about that was the big debate

SPEAKER_141: who knows i can't remember about the beep beep which led to me writing the google doc about

SPEAKER_144: beep oh i know what it was tomorrow and i deserve a bestie award for that who's your biggest political

SPEAKER_06: winner okay let's stop at the inside baseball my biggest political winner for 2022 i predict uh my man ron desantis will be the big winner he's up for re-election in florida he won uh in 2018 with less than one percent of the vote it was a real nail biter this time i think he's going to cruise to re-election quite handily and become the national front runner on the gop side and the reason is because he had the right approach on covet he made the vaccine available he made the antibodies available but ultimately he treated the population like adults he let them make their own decisions he kept businesses open schools open and i think the rest of the country is going to come around to his point of view because the unstoppability of omicron next year and so i think that desantis who is much maligned and disparaged will come out as the big winner a year from now all right who do you

SPEAKER_34: got freeberg vladimir putin um i think putin's going to benefit from the rising conflict between

SPEAKER_120: the us and china uh the other day there was a call between uh putin and um g and they said uh and and putin called g his dear friend and said that relations between the two countries had reached an unprecedentedly high level and i think that his position um economically as a trade partner with china and as a beneficiary of chinese uh economic prosperity will only grow as tensions between the us and china rise um i think we're seeing that with some of his cavalier behavior with the ukraine right now and i think putin will become a stronger player on the global stage uh particularly as it relates to his relationship with nato uh over the next year um and he's been a little bit quiet the last few years he was kind of i'd say suppressed with uh sanctions and all the other nonsense that's gone on uh to keep him at bay but he could kind of rise up again in 2022 and and he could become a real

SPEAKER_149: player on the geopolitical stage globally um in a more meaningful way than he has in the last couple

SPEAKER_09: years i mean you you white guys love putin it's crazy the whites love putin i don't love him god i hate

SPEAKER_152: putin i mean if you ranked if you ranked russia gdp do you know even do you have any idea where it

SPEAKER_30: even ranks you know gdp is probably i mean you guys for the amount of time you guys give it's

SPEAKER_154: probably eight i mean no i think it's in the 20s or 30s nigeria is like crushes russia nobody ever

SPEAKER_156: talks about nigeria has all the same inputs except they're black they just don't have 2 000 nuclear

SPEAKER_157: weapons i mean as if that is the big reason i mean it's a fallen empire for sure but they still have 2 000 nukes yeah the position the energy that it provides europe i mean russia is geopolitically

SPEAKER_167: pretty uh significant insignificant economically significant because they have a madman running

SPEAKER_168: the country i don't think he's a madman but i'm just saying that you know there's a there's a lot of ink that spilled about russia and i don't think anybody even takes a step back and actually looks at

SPEAKER_172: who do you got for yours it's not actually ranking the world guys uh i my my worldwide uh biggest

Chamath Palihapitiya: political winner for 2022 2022 is xi jinping i think this guy is uh he's firing on all cylinders and he uh is basically ascendant so 2022 marks the first year where he's essentially really ruler for life and so i don't think we really know what he's capable of and what he's going to do and so that's just going to play out you think he's the biggest political winner really oh my god i think it's going to be a he's going to run roughshod not just domestically but also internationally because you have to remember he controls so much of the critical supply chain that the western world needs

SPEAKER_41: to be i think it's absolutely right let alone i think you're completely wrong i think he's losing his power he's scared that's why he took out all these ceos he's consolidating power because he fears

SPEAKER_179: that they're gonna win too big and then displace him and he has massive real estate problems over there that could blow up at any moment in time he could face a civil war there i think he's totally isolated

SPEAKER_180: himself civil war and they don't even have every major country is removing their factories and

David Friedberg: removing this dependency there what are you talking about what are they what are they going to riot with

SPEAKER_112: uh did you not see tiananmen square did you not see the riots in hong kong are you not paying attention to moth there's been many riots in china they just happened to kill those were crushed

SPEAKER_186: i'm not saying they will be crushed but he still will have massive amounts of uh i believe protests

SPEAKER_06: and yeah he'll have to kill people i think i think the the bigger risk is is that china gets better for xi jinping but worse for everybody else in china it's already worse for all the billionaires uh over there it's worse for the tech industry you've now got evergrand that whole uh you know gigantic debt implosion i think there could be contagion from china next year i don't think she's gonna lose his grip in any way but i'm not sure china's gonna have a good year next year gonna be

SPEAKER_179: terrible um i went with ron desantis with you sax i think he's obviously um a much more um he's a much more palatable candidate than trump and i think trump is not going to want to run and that brings me to my biggest political loser for 2022 as we segue i believe this is going to be split between biden and trump the two most important people of the last uh four years and i think biden is going to lose the midterms and i think trump is going to get destroyed with this january 6 thing and uh bow out and not run again who do you got for your biggest loser let me add an octogenarian to that

SPEAKER_06: which is my my pick for biggest political loser next year is nancy pelosi i there's a red wave coming the democrats for sure are going to lose the house that is baked into the cake and i predict she will announce her retirement shortly after that she has served you know a couple of pretty consequential terms as speaker she's never lost a vote but uh with this whole build back better she forced all of her moderates to take a vote on 5 trillion in new spending which they then lost in the senate and that's going to cost them some seats so she contributed to i think her own downfall what's

SPEAKER_196: going to happen next year is nancy to come work at social capital and you're going to give her a bucket of capital chamal to work with to try to play the market by the way jason who's the excellent

SPEAKER_198: writer you got from tucker because i want to hire them all right listen i uh i got somebody from the

SPEAKER_201: youtube comments who said they would they would punch me up all right i got biden and trump nancy pelosi uh and then who do you got freeberg who's your biggest political loser of 2022 prediction mine's a

SPEAKER_125: little uh depressing but i i'm honestly a little bit worried about the united states influence

SPEAKER_120: on kind of a global stage socially politically economically and i think that there's a number of events that could catalyze kind of a precip precipitous a series of events that could really harm the continuing influence the u.s has geopolitically so um you know i don't really

SPEAKER_149: have an individual but i kind of have the u.s and its and its role on the global geopolitical stage u.s

SPEAKER_201: influence u.s influence yeah and you said you thought there was going to be this uh

SPEAKER_206: potential tipping point perhaps did you see that being taiwan or what i've got a couple of them i think when we get into our contrarian points of view i'll share some of them okay uh chamath who

Chamath Palihapitiya: do you got for your biggest political loser for 2022 prediction well look i uh i like your pick of trump which is not mine but just to double down on this trump thing it's incredible to see

SPEAKER_168: that he's just a bamboozler you know that's the same guy who's like you know telling people to not

Chamath Palihapitiya: take the vaccine gets boosted then you know when he finally gets outed with this other scumbag what's

SPEAKER_209: that guy's name what's that other right knob sacks take out your phone and go to speed dial just read it

SPEAKER_211: riley bill o'reilly bill o'reilly bill o'reilly yeah that's number four to speed down those two dopes on stage are like yeah i got boosted what about you yeah i got triple faxed and and then everybody's booing them i mean they're just such watch what they do not what they say

Chamath Palihapitiya: the great thing is they are phenomenal entertainers but you can't trust a single word that they say so uh jason i i think that that's a pretty good pick my pick is the progressive left um as a class because i think these guys are being exposed basically for just being laughing stocks they're quickly becoming policy jokes inside of washington and in every city state that they run they just can't seem to put one foot in front of the other and they've been run amok with folks like these teachers unions who have really really really done a number on our children which is now finally getting exposed in the mainstream media and so all of these policies are just they're not rooted in any sort of science or legitimacy so they are i think going to pay a pretty heavy

SPEAKER_177: political price for mainstream voters in 22. you know what they remind me of those two guys like uh

SPEAKER_41: the old guys from the muppets statler and waldorf that's what like

SPEAKER_186: those uh trump and uh o'reilly are okay biggest i can still i think biden can still save save a lot of his

SPEAKER_221: long-term reputation i think trump's is what would biden need to do in 2022 number one center he needs

Chamath Palihapitiya: to disavow the the progressives and basically shore up his party's ability to win back some seats and hold the line and so how would he be able to enter some of these places with some of this rhetoric that you know he basically was convinced would be necessary for him to not lose the progressive left there just needs to be a conversation inside the white house where they actually go through the cold political calculus of you know my enemy's enemy is actually my friend kind of thing and actually go back to the center yeah he needs to pull a bill clinton and trying to pull a bookland okay and quickly

SPEAKER_06: too i think it's way too early to conclude that the biden presidency is over i mean i think i think they're going to lose congress next year that's baked into the cake but he's still got two years after that to pull his chest outside of the fire and if the republicans overplay their hand and he taxed towards the center you know he can change his fortunes he can change his fortunes quickly he's

SPEAKER_206: down a pawn but he could develop the board i got it all right i think the voice of populism is only

SPEAKER_120: going to swell over the next year and um that that's going to be the predominant force that's

SPEAKER_127: going to drive both the alt-right and the progressive left and it you know you could make the case that you know politicians that are in seats should be kind of disavowing these what we today are calling

SPEAKER_120: kind of extreme voices but they're only getting louder and the importance of kind of populist movements not just in the us but you look around the world i mean look at what's happening in brazil

SPEAKER_206: uh various european countries i mean it is so you think populism is going to have a rebound in 2022 we're all saying that we think it's fizzling well i can i just say free british populism's swelling

SPEAKER_34: and i think it's going to get louder and oh okay low interest low interest rates are simply keeping things at bay for now and i think that's going to shift very quickly and um but populism just means

SPEAKER_236: what's popular and so i think there's a huge silent majority that's always stayed on the sidelines

SPEAKER_168: because they're not the ones that that are tend to tend to have a tendency to complain but when things get important enough they typically show up and so you know we may find that actually centrism is

SPEAKER_161: what's most popular i think populism is um anti-elitism and i think that there is a growing concern

SPEAKER_127: globally because of globalization that power and capital has been concentrated in the hands of a few that the voice of the majority is we want to be shared we want that to all be shared equally and that's what's driving populism around the world and it's in the us you know manifesting in different ways on the left and the right and you'll see this in other countries around the world but i don't see the fundamental driving forces changing there until and unless we have massive taxation and redistribute wealth in a meaningful way or some massive shift in government um the that that voice is going to get any quieter i think it's only going to get louder and there may be perturbations between here and there of like what it looks like but it doesn't seem to be going away that that's

SPEAKER_149: that's just to me kind of the underlying driving force and it's manifesting with different political stuff right now but interesting um it's not it doesn't seem to be silencing biggest

SPEAKER_168: business winner for 2022 chamal let's start with you small businesses um oh i think what we are starting to see is that these monolithic monopolistic mega corps aren't everything that they're cracked up to be

Chamath Palihapitiya: and so there's going to be a certain amount of lock-in that we will tolerate there's going to be a lot of taxation and policy that prevents its further growth and all of that opportunity accrues to smaller companies and so in general i think that if you are on the side of the david versus these goliaths over the next year you're going to have or frankly over the next several decades but starting really next year you're going to do really well and the middle companies so the folks that are neither huge nor are small let's take a you know an example like a shopify 100 billion dollar market cap but by no means is it a trillion dollar market cap their success comes from enabling you know arming the

SPEAKER_177: rebels and so i'm a huge fan of these enabling this enabling layer for small businesses both offline and

SPEAKER_127: online who do you got freeberg um i am actually going to go with stripe stripe is a payment technology

SPEAKER_125: company based in san francisco uh stripe raised money earlier this year at a 95 billion dollar valuation um the highest valued ipo tech ipo in history was alibaba they were valued at 230 billion

SPEAKER_127: dollars when they went public we are hearing rumors that stripe might you know kind of or think that they bankers think that they might be able to break that and so stripes ipo could be the biggest tech ipo ever um i think they've been talking about doing a direct listing by the way i don't know the guys i don't know the investors i don't know the company i'm not an investor so i don't have any information whatsoever i'm simply an observer and and talk to people in the market but it sounds like they're going for a direct listing and we could see that become the highest valuation tech ipo ever and then

SPEAKER_120: they will become kind of the golden child next year uh and you know kind of be be part of the you know

SPEAKER_06: the the top of the top what do you got sex i got rise of the rest meaning the parts of the united states that are not the traditional california and new york centers of industry and wealth i think it's a trend that's been going on but it's going to keep getting bigger next year if you guys saw the net migration numbers by state they're absolutely stunning stunning so and it's the it's the zero tax states that are just booming right now it's states like florida and texas and tennessee and on and on it goes at the huge expense of california and new york i think that trends only going to pick up steam now that salt is dead i think there was a hope on the part of many people that trump got rid of salt but and then the democrats were supposed to bring it back and then aoc rejected it it's not coming back and what that means is that if you're in safe california for example you know with the salt deduction your effective tax rate was around eight percent not 13.3 percent now it really is 13.3 percent that's a huge increase and the politicians in california don't even realize that the tax rate has effectively gone up to the end taxpayer and uh and and the quality of life isn't any better we're not getting anything more for that and so i think this x is

SPEAKER_168: going to continue that's the subtle math that they actually really need to understand that 500 basis points you can overcome that if your life is five percent better in enough ways where you're like it's fine and the reason why people are leaving is they feel that their life is actually much less than five percent worse right if the quality of life doesn't justify it you know your your windows are getting smashed in all the time safety your kids are you know depressed and need counseling because of the way that the teachers unions locked them out of school you're just like

SPEAKER_262: forget this i can't do this anymore right i gotta add those two numbers yeah that's what that's what

SPEAKER_168: people really need to appreciate i don't think it's the actual effective tax rate but it's the delta of

Chamath Palihapitiya: how poor your quality of life has gotten over these last few years relative to the tax you pay

SPEAKER_06: yeah i totally agree with that and then one other effect that i think plays into this is the reshoring of american industry which is not happening in places like california new york it's happening in places like texas sure samsung just announced a 17 billion dollar investment in a new chip uh foundry in texas here i'll post this and there's a lot of things like this happening so as we decouple from china and bring our supply chain home let's go that is going to be a big factor in the

David Sacks: rise of the rest love it and it's great it's great for america because the wealth does need to be more evenly distributed it can't just go to tech and finance elites in california new york yeah

SPEAKER_276: all right um i had two uh disney was my uh biggest corporate winner for 2022 disney plus crushing it

SPEAKER_41: parks raised prices people want to go to the park spider-man just had i think the number two or number three all-time uh opening in a pandemic which is crazy that ip is going to continue to work for them john favreau and david fiolini i think is how you pronounce his last name both crushing it with mandalorian boba fett one of the great characters uh from our childhood now uh is going to have his own book of boba fett starting on december 29th is that today or tomorrow uh tomorrow and so i think disney is going to have a huge surge i think they're undervalued but my my number one for this category of biggest business winner for 2022 was millennials and gen z i think that they became

SPEAKER_112: completely empowered and independent they shook off the participation trophies and their entitlement during covid they realized that they have skills that are valuable they're sought after they learned how to make money they traded crypto they did stock trading they're doing shorts puts whatever on robin hood and they're just not impressed with people in power and they increasingly want to build shit and make money i think that those two generations have woken up and i think they're going to be the biggest winners in 2022 because dovetailing with your smbs chamath i do think uh and i'm seeing it across my entire portfolio of companies uh you try to hire somebody and they're

SPEAKER_100: like yeah but maybe i can start my own company and sax are actually saying a flavor of the same thing

SPEAKER_168: actually yeah because all these smbs aren't going to happen in new york and san francisco they're happening all over america and there are people that are taking empowerment into their own hands

Chamath Palihapitiya: there's tooling for them and there's opportunity economic opportunity for them to build businesses on their own and basically just say you know nothing will build your confidence with you sax nothing builds your

SPEAKER_41: confidence like moving from one city to another and having that's a very empowering thing to do when you're just like you know what i'm gonna just leave and go somewhere else i'll make it myself so i feel like they are uh super impressive to me i really believe in i really believe in this

SPEAKER_282: because the three of us got there in totally different ways but i think it's roughly all the

SPEAKER_179: same we might be triangulating around a trend here biggest business loser for 2022

SPEAKER_41: i'll just give it real quick i think crypto projects that actually don't deliver a product in 2022 are just going to be um lost i think this idea that people are going to bet on things that don't exist in the real world or don't actually have applications is going to end it's time for crypto to put up or shut up and i think the crypto projects that do that which a number of them are starting to are going to store but it's going to be a big shake out there what do you got

SPEAKER_206: for biggest business loser in 2022 freeberg i agree with you actually that was mine yeah oh wow

SPEAKER_120: i said crypto bubble will burst there's a lot of scammy nonsense going on 90 of these projects okay you know are not going to yield value and fundamentals and i also think that rising interest rates are going to affect the crypto market there's a lot of leveraged trades into the crypto uh assets uh those will start to de-lever uh as these uh interest rates shift up and as a whole you'll see a large percentage of them go away or decline in value but a small number will continue to grow in value just like we saw when the dot com bubble blew up there was a number of companies that survived most of them did not and the few that did survive ended up being coming worth 10 times what the current market value is and i think that that's still possible with these crypto projects

SPEAKER_149: but uh i'd say 90 of them are probably going to start to blow up next year what do you got shabath

SPEAKER_168: well i guess i'm fading you guys and i'm also fading implicitly friedberg's pick of stripe but my biggest business loser for 2022 is visa and mastercard and traditional payment rails and the entire ecosystem around it so i think that this is the year you can put on what probably will

Chamath Palihapitiya: be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime which is to be short these companies and that anybody that basically lives off of this two or three percent tax and be long well thought out web3 crypto projects that are rebuilding payments infrastructure in a completely decentralized way now that doesn't necessarily mean that what you say won't also happen both that stripe will have an incredible ipo and that a lot of these kami crypto projects will go to zero however if you read the white papers of these crypto projects and you systematically put together a framework i think you can be long those and you can be short visa mastercard because i think this is their peak market

SPEAKER_209: cap and for those of you don't know fading and sports betting taking the opposite side of a bet

SPEAKER_206: taking the opposite team i guess man visa's market cap is half a trillion dollars huh it's incredible it's

SPEAKER_125: a completely contrived duopoly that doesn't mean to a young person and mastercard's almost 400 billion

SPEAKER_253: so they're a trillion dollar combined market capital you have to understand that the canary in the coal

Chamath Palihapitiya: mine here is pretty significant the most important thing is amazon earlier this year nick maybe you can post this decided to just shut visa off in the uk oh yeah now amazon is not going to do something like that in my opinion unless it's a test of what they can do all around the world and again going back to this idea of arming the rebels there really is no need today for all of these small businesses to sit on top of visa mastercard and amex rails it's unnecessary and so it'll probably get developed in the developing world first this is why i think you know focusing in markets like nigeria to me are way more exciting than talking about right you know these fading western european countries who cares right this is where this stuff will happen um it's not to say that those are those other companies can't you know trundle along for a while but when i say you know we'll look back in 10 years and their market caps will be materially lower anybody in those traditional infrastructure and rails versus anybody in this new infrastructure and rails will be it will look like a no-brainer

SPEAKER_127: do you consider the buy now pay later companies like a firm and upstart or whatever i don't know if upstart fits in that category but some of these buy now pay later businesses as being the alternative

SPEAKER_248: to the traditional payment networks or do you think that it's a different business no i've right now

Chamath Palihapitiya: i think what what buy now pay later is is is a rate arbitrage right when as you said earlier rates are very very low so the cost of capital is low but it again starts to habituate the consumer experience to i don't need to pay these users rates to these three credit card companies to facilitate a transaction of money that i already have or money that i'm good for that's the big idea right and so

SPEAKER_21: when you translate that into web 3 in a good project or a good series of projects you're not

SPEAKER_296: going to need these companies and so it's going to i think eviscerate trillions of dollars of market

SPEAKER_298: not to mention you also have in between these two venmo and cash app which are not crypto but they certainly as brands mean more to young people than visa and mastercard yeah do you think block

SPEAKER_162: used to be called square is a good pair trade against visa mastercard in this context yeah i like

SPEAKER_211: it you know i think that that that starts to get closer to to the truth my perspective is you can kind

Chamath Palihapitiya: of short anybody who's public because anybody who's public can really only be public or will go public because they feast off of this artificial two or three percent transaction fee everybody does the companies you want to belong are those private companies in crypto that you can read the white papers of whose protocols have utility and who's building some element of infrastructure that replaces a traditional business so as long as you can kind of build those things up biology for example had a bunch of tweets this weekend where he was like you know i he has this idea for a mirror table what is that that replaces you know cap table management right now why is that important

SPEAKER_21: well it because it touches all of these really important kyc aml investing laws across all these countries in all of these places it's just a very simple example of where the new company that actually builds that capability of these mirror tables will do so at virtually no cost and so it'll have a 50 person team and so they're not going to have offices all over the world their cost basis will be

Chamath Palihapitiya: you know an ordered order or two orders of magnitude

SPEAKER_298: cheaper visa mastercard became a tax it took them decades and decades to have that power over folks but i think a firm does break that a firm breaks it because yeah the people who are selling

SPEAKER_179: then decide you know what we'll give a little bit of a discount here to get more people to buy

SPEAKER_120: go ahead they were the classic network monopoly network effect monopoly business right like they got the small businesses they got the credit cards and by extension the consumers on the network and ultimately they created these these absolutely locked in networks um but as with all networks complacency kind of you know drives innovation and this fueled innovation that we're seeing is now starting to figure out ways to not just crack their way into the network but to replace them with an

Chamath Palihapitiya: entirely different model last point on this this is not one where i think this disruption happens

SPEAKER_156: slow i think it happens swiftly swiftly swiftly being five to ten years no like in a year yeah

SPEAKER_306: to my point is really interesting because there's you know there are several billion people globally

SPEAKER_127: who do not have credit and who are unbanked and so if you think about where this is more likely to come from it's more likely to come from an innovative model in those markets that then ultimately finds its way into the developed world versus you know trying to break apart visa and mastercard and go get

SPEAKER_120: these small businesses to switch out of them and so on uh today so it's it's a really interesting okay

SPEAKER_06: sax what do you got i don't know if it's biggest loser but the thing i'm most worried about is in 2022 the fed is going to stop quantitative easing or so they have said they are i guess march will be the last month in which they do this qe so starting in april there won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system and so i think the the losers are going to be any of these asset classes that are heavily dependent on or have benefited from all this excess liquidity sloshing through the system it's true that the stock market i think has already priced in rate increases and an increase in the discount rate but i don't know if markets can fully price in a reduction in liquidity we don't know exactly what that's going to look like and so if liquidity is reduced next year i think that could reverberate through a bunch of markets including you know everything from sports cards you know collectibles which have gone through the roof to art to crypto to you know maybe um some growth stocks and on and on it goes so that's my biggest worry is what happens when the fed stops qe and the biggest

SPEAKER_310: loser is markets because of uh quantitative markets that have to get off drugs basically okay most contrarian

SPEAKER_111: belief uh sax why don't you tell us your most contrarian belief since i'm sure that you workshop

SPEAKER_316: this with the contrarian peter tail himself it never ends yeah i mean so i i have a couple of them here actually you want to wait and go after everybody else sure yeah go ahead i don't even know

SPEAKER_168: if this is contrarian or just unconventional but i think that all of this pressure in on the progressive

Chamath Palihapitiya: left will manifest in the chosen one aoc deciding to step up and run against schumer in the primary in

SPEAKER_319: june of 2022 and she will lose wow that's a good prediction i like samath's prediction that's a bold

SPEAKER_154: one yeah that she would lose is bold well sorry just to give a little bit of color in this like

Chamath Palihapitiya: let's just assume that she doesn't right and and you know she shouldn't but let think about where she's sitting build back better is over there's an enormous amount of stuff happening right now where you know it looks like the progressive left is really going to be put under pressure and it's almost as if if she's really going to be the standard bearer and she needs to do something quickly otherwise she's going to have to wait until she's 38 you know she's you know another six years from now because it's not unlikely that she's going to run against kristin you know kirsten gillibrand so this is kind of like it may be a moment where out of her sheer frustration she steps up

SPEAKER_177: and then we will see whether freeburg is right or i'm right whether the populism is really around the left or the populism is really around the silent majority what do you got sex i think it's i think

SPEAKER_272: that's a very good prediction um in a similar way i predict that there will be a strange new respect

SPEAKER_06: for bill clinton in the democratic party by the end of next year why because after the red wave there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center they need to triangulate and clinton was the one who provided the formula for doing this he dragged the democratic party back to the center after they were losing elections and the other piece of this is going to be that it's already the case in polling that hispanics and asian americans now are swing voters and i think you're going to see in november 2022 that they go for republicans in big numbers and so the idea that the democratic party can just coast to uh election based on demographics i think that theory is going to be imperiled yeah and so and so they're going to be looking to clinton and maybe not so much obama as the as sort of the predicate they should be you know aspiring to in the future i think what's

SPEAKER_201: important about that is those groups of people i think are offended by the free money get something

SPEAKER_179: for nothing they're hard-working immigrant people who have pride they don't want handouts and then you

SPEAKER_41: have this left white liberal maniac saying no no you're poor you need handouts you don't you shouldn't work you need handouts you're you know and i just think they don't buy it and that's why i think

SPEAKER_328: they're going to go to the republicans because republicans are hard-working and freedom-loving

SPEAKER_06: and what was clinton's big tagline in his campaign he he said that he supports people who work hard and play by the rules that was that so great that's the message the democrats got to refine right now they seem to be on the side of basically drug addicts i mean you know people who junkies are

SPEAKER_77: contributing nothing and pitching tents in the middle of public spaces and you know participating in

SPEAKER_283: open-air drug markets yeah what do you got and sore losers don't forget sore losers yeah and hysterical

SPEAKER_332: freeberg and hysterical people i mean being hysterical just never good look if you'll bear

SPEAKER_333: with me i have i have three but um uh i couldn't really pick so the first one is i think and i shared

SPEAKER_127: this on the pod the other day i think we'll see the start of um great global conflict we we often rationalize the series of events that that catalyze conflict after the fact rather than recognizing that there was emotional conditioning that allowed it to arise in the first place i think we're in a state today where the conditioning is such that we're more inclined to engage in conflict globally than we have been in a very long time i don't know if it's kind of the conflict meter or what have you but you know you could see proxy wars uh and proxy conflicts that arise sort of like what we're seeing you know maybe something in in the ukraine maybe something related to taiwan but this is primarily predicated by the fact that we've got uh kind of this inflationary environment and the rise of populism will force the kind of domestic policy makers and legislators to say we should do something that's active and something that will allow us to unite our nations to go and get into a conflict somewhere or more likely to do that than not and so i would say that the conditioning is there to see something like that happen and so we're not kind of thinking hey next year is going to be a year of war and that's why it's contrary and i think that there may be war that we're not kind of paying attention to today or that will surprise us after the fact the second thing is i'd say china may solidify its position next year and this is going to sound a little crazy as a leader in climate change mitigation whereas it's historically been um considered uh kind of the primary foe against climate change and there's a couple of behaviors we've seen come out of china recently that i think number one remember china is a very rational actor they do analysis they make decisions based on long-term investments and thinking they recently announced that they're going to build 115 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years at a cost of roughly 450 billion dollars that's about 3 billion dollars per nuclear power plant the us is currently spending 30 billion dollars building two power plants in georgia so the chinese have figured it out they've also publicly declared that they're going to be completely carbon neutral with their economy by the year 2060 and they're making the investments through these nuclear power plants to demonstrate that they're actually on the road to do that and there are a number of other infrastructure initiatives that are meant to help them achieve significant reductions in uh in carbon by by 2040. so so let me just point out why this is important because right now everyone thinks china is the foe they're causing climate change they're the biggest problem imagine if over the next year some of what they're doing pays off and everyone says my gosh china is leading the world in climate change mitigation their influence socially and politically will rise and this this gives china a very strong kind of position you know on the global stage and with kind of people around the world thinking instead of china being a foe maybe they're the leader and the us is the laggard um and that creates a my third is very random which is some sort of natural catastrophe we we never account uh you know all natural catastrophes are very low probability but very high severity if you multiply the probability by the severity you have what's called the expected loss we always undervalue the expected loss of massive catastrophes natural catastrophes we haven't had one in a while uh it's a very low probability bet for me to say hey maybe we will but if we do um it's certainly underappreciated in markets today and so when these kind of you know black swan type events occur did you uh did you watch don't look up on netflix is that why

SPEAKER_201: you're no what is that it's a new movie about a crap don't watch it uh it's polarizing let's leave it out for now okay um i'll watch it it's crap my most contrarian belief is i think this is contrarian

SPEAKER_179: is that american influence and exceptional exceptionalism is going to soar i believe that is contrarian i think we've empowered this next generation as i talked about earlier millennials gen z are ready to be independent to build and i think gen x is going to start taking over from boomers as is what's happening in this very podcast here as we start to hit our prime years as executives um and then all these boomers are retiring as chamath has pointed out

SPEAKER_41: over and over again and they're going to pass down their wealth which then creates a perfect storm of a ton of capital a ton of energy lots of new ideas a different perspective and the economy is going to boom uh and we will prove once again that we're the greatest country and economy in the world

SPEAKER_127: jakel you're not you're not a contrarian you're what we call an optimist yeah okay and then i'll add to

SPEAKER_41: that jakel what are we are we gen x we're gen x yes and the fighting over covet abortion guns social justice and all this stuff is so exhausting not that these are not important issues that i think

SPEAKER_112: everybody is going to move to let's just start respecting and building and solving problems and i just think american exceptionalism will be um all that happens in 2022 i just think that that is

SPEAKER_124: my contrarian belief for 2022 everybody believes it's a primary race i think everybody believes

SPEAKER_346: it's coming apart i don't think anything's coming apart the whole arc of the next century in a year i think it's going to be a great year i think it's going to be a great year can i give my second

SPEAKER_06: contrarian prediction oh god here we go yes okay that's good okay here it is i think the media the media is going to pull a total 180 on covid okay so after pumping out covid fear porn for two years they're going to change their tune next year um some of the things you're going to hear we need to live with covid it can't be eradicated they're even going to say it's it's more like a cold or flu they're going to say that politicians uh can't be expected to stop it they're going to memory hold their support for lockdowns we never supported that um and why is all this because we have an election next year and more americans have already died from covid under joe biden than donald trump

SPEAKER_351: that's a pretty amazing memory hold what was your term yeah you've never heard of the term memory

SPEAKER_77: hole it's what the memory hole memory hole got it okay yeah but did you guys know that that more

SPEAKER_06: americans have already died from covid under joe biden than donald trump that's that is stunning yeah it is stunning are you sure yeah 100 now his writers triple fact checked it yeah they did they did no look look it up um and it's certainly it's going to be even more true it's on infowars.com you

SPEAKER_272: can look it up omicron wave now look i don't blame joe biden for that sorry wait why is that because

SPEAKER_356: trump had no vaccine and biden has had vaccines and everything else and maybe it's the consistency of

SPEAKER_162: i mean have you guys seen we've had a consistent you know one to two thousand people die a day it's been

SPEAKER_358: 1400 a day so maybe it's just that consistency in the us yeah i think it's because of the republican

SPEAKER_360: states that refuse to do any mitigation okay let's keep going look i don't blame biden for that i don't

SPEAKER_06: blame any president united states nonetheless biden campaigned on the idea of he's quote unquote shutting down the virus um he he and the democrats claimed to that they would be able to eradicate it that was the entire basis for all these coveted restrictions now it's it's the case that it can't be done everyone's realizing that they're gonna have to move the goalpost a memory hole ever saying that and so the democrats desperately need covet to be over for the 2022 midterms therefore the media

SPEAKER_168: will say it's over well you started to see it already because the media is probably scratching their head they were the ones trying to force these lockdowns you know basking in the glow of whatever

Chamath Palihapitiya: press release the the centers for disease control would put out and all of a sudden the cdc just had to do a complete 180 and when they used to force 10-day quarantines for these positive tests and people with covid they just backtracked to five and why well it's because there's nobody to work

SPEAKER_179: and the delta ceo asked for it last week and now they're i don't know if that's exactly true but the

Chamath Palihapitiya: cdc ultimately really is just in the hands of big business and so when big business needs these workers to come back you know they and it probably pissed off a lot of unions who would have loved to have just had a positive test and stay home forever the teachers unions particularly here we are so

SPEAKER_06: this is a really tough situation well and look and to be clear the message that the media is going to deliver about covid next year it'll be the first time i agree with it but it's completely dishonest of them to pretend like they were never in favor of lockdowns and they completely inflated the threat and created this whole hysteria and next year they're gonna have to back off it but also take it because

SPEAKER_298: no politician can end into account sacks that this new variant is much less deadly so it would be logical for people to take a less severe position on it now hold on jason we don't know whether there

SPEAKER_284: are more variants to come in the future that could be much worse but we know this one is not as deadly

SPEAKER_168: the cdc makes a decision broadly speaking about everything they're not making a decision about omicron they didn't say if you have omicron because not only if they really even test for it i'm just talking you can say for the reason they shortened this is because they didn't know what they were

SPEAKER_21: doing before they don't fundamentally know what they're doing now they're making best guesses and the problem with these best guesses is that they're inaccurate and it forces enormous amounts of waves of havoc every time they make a decision what i'm talking about i'm talking about sax's prediction

SPEAKER_179: that the media will flip a logical person including everybody on this call because of omicron

SPEAKER_112: taking over for delta and being a natural blocker it would be the logical thing to do so in defense of the media which i'm not apt to do it's logical for everybody to take a different approach right now because omicron is 40 times more contagious it blocks delta and it's become the dominant variant

SPEAKER_168: i think the right now the media is confused they're not sure which way to go so you know there's a high probability that they tack towards what sax is saying but if you read the new

SPEAKER_21: york times article it was through gritted teeth they presented the fact that the cdc changed the guidelines if you read that article it was like pulling teeth what do you mean when you say the

SPEAKER_230: media can you just define that a little bit it's everybody about fox news come on it's the elite

SPEAKER_06: prestige media it's the new york times the washington post cnn msnbc on and on and on do you think there's

SPEAKER_381: a bigger audience with the aggregate of those publications you just mentioned or the direct to

SPEAKER_127: the consumer publications that are happening on youtube of course they're being disaggregated because

SPEAKER_06: of their dishonesty so does it matter yeah of course it still matters because they still have a lot of

SPEAKER_356: influence they do and no offense to everybody on youtube but we haven't gotten yet to the economic

SPEAKER_168: viability where enough people on youtube can cover the broad spectrum of things that are important and then the mechanisms and incentives to amplify it so for example that's a good point we still need

SPEAKER_21: cnn there was a woman on cnn nick please post the clip that you could we posted in the group chat talking about the incidence of suicide rates and depression in our children and what happened when they were locked out of school for two years okay and i am not going to stop talking about this because this is the issue of our times these are our kids well i want to get to underreported stories uh as

SPEAKER_390: well jan oh for me i mean my kids hear me rant about this every day so i may as well tell you guys it's it's it's the crushing impact that our covet policies have had on young kids and children uh by far you know the least serious risk for serious illness uh but i mean even teenagers you know a healthy teenager has a one in a million chance of getting in and dying from covet which is way lower than you know dying in a car wreck on a road trip but they have suffered and sacrificed the most especially kids and underrepresented at risk communities and now we have the surgeon general saying there's a mental health crisis among our kids uh the risk of suicide girl suicide attempts among girls now up 51 percent this year uh black kids uh nearly twice as likely as as white kids to die by suicide i mean school closures lockdowns cancellation of sports you couldn't even go on a playground in the dc area uh without cops scurrying getting shooing the kids off tremendous negative impact on kids and it's been an afterthought um you know it's it's it's hurt their dreams their future learning loss risk of abuse their mental health and now with our knowledge our vaccines uh if our policies don't reflect a more measured and reasonable approach for our children they will be paying for our generation's decisions uh the rest of their lives and that to me is the greatest underreported story of the past year

SPEAKER_23: and i don't see it being talked about anywhere we talked about it first you know i posted that link about the decrease in iq points yep and then we started to talk about it there slowly and now it's trickling into the mainstream media where they're forced to talk and who's impacted it's not

SPEAKER_398: rich kids it's not middle class kids it's all of our kids that was a fantastic clip that cnn clip

SPEAKER_401: was fantastic the poor kids are the ones who are the ones who get hit the hardest they can't do

SPEAKER_23: supplemental it's not just that don't don't minimize what this is this is every child i agree

SPEAKER_21: the data was that it's disproportionately affecting minority kids yes and that could be because of the sociology of the parents but jason you can also have rich colored parents okay jay i'm not just

SPEAKER_99: saying colored parents i'm saying all poor kids white poor kids who are in public school poor kids

SPEAKER_211: they're getting hit the minority kids of all kinds but frankly the point is it's all kids of all kinds

SPEAKER_235: okay so we don't need to sub segment this to make this issue go away and seem smaller than it is

SPEAKER_21: we have literally put tens of millions of children yes at risk because of our behavior yes i'm agree

SPEAKER_162: with you and i'm not trying to minimize it or make it a smaller issue your point is that none of the

SPEAKER_127: smaller audiences um or smaller new media folks on youtube or their podcasting have enough breadth to

SPEAKER_381: really make an impact by talking about this topic is that what you're saying that the mainstream media is needed to hit the broad base no what i'm saying you're very specific the people on youtube

SPEAKER_168: cover what the people on youtube want okay the people on podcasts cover what they want they're all

SPEAKER_21: very narrow you mean they're narrow niche okay yeah there is no set of incentives that then threads that together and then amplifies right in the absence of those two mechanics right those are software mechanics and economic mechanics that need to get built in what we lose is signal right that in my opinion right now over the last two weeks is the single most important signal and it is nowhere except for this one clip on cnn

SPEAKER_127: and the discussion that we had two weeks ago because the youtube i just want to be really clear on this

SPEAKER_21: because the youtube is full of react videos right and video games which is fine and the consumer is missing yeah is talking about this issue and actually holding people accountable and who should be held accountable in every single county where it was basically a board of education that was trying to shut these kids out who stood up and who told that story nobody did and if it was trying to be

SPEAKER_23: told it wasn't amplified correctly enough and so what happens is after two years of damage to all of our kids tens of millions of kids there's a couple of fissures one fissure was on this podcast which i'm very proud of another fissure was this one few minutes cbs cbs cbs whatever it was a sunday show

SPEAKER_299: yeah but my point is these are the things that really matter and we haven't figured it out yet

SPEAKER_127: what you're saying and i think it's a really important point is that as a youtuber as a podcaster you pick your niche that you can hit home on and you hit home over and over every week but no one says i'm going to broadly talk about the issues of our time and make sure no no that's not true we do

SPEAKER_21: we do but it's a small subset but it's not a bigger picture there's more than a million people a week that listen to this we've we far exceeded msnbc's average viewership we're probably going to pass you know most cnbc shows and some cnn shows by the end of next year so we will do it but there's not

SPEAKER_127: enough there needs to be more of us we're an opinion show as much you know we're not a traditional reporting show right in the sense that like go out gather data and facts and present them or do you

SPEAKER_21: disagree with that not that they do that anyway i disagree with that i disagree i actually think we do a decent job of filtering for the truth and the reason we're able to do that is because of our friendship we can hold each other accountable and call out the when we see because we don't have

SPEAKER_41: incentives we don't have anything to lose right i don't think there's an incentive here for us but i want to build on something that sac said see it is very hard for the media to hold this

SPEAKER_179: dissonance because they're saying everybody needs to shelter in place covid is you know this huge thing they put the death count they put the case counter up they won't talk about deaths in icu they won't talk about who's getting covid because they have an incentive to get more ratings through covid or trump and they took that and then it's a narrative violation or it's cognitive

SPEAKER_41: dissonance if they say at the same time everybody needs to shelter in place this thing is really deadly but we should send our kids to school so they couldn't take that position sax and chamath they couldn't take the position that oh well kids could go to school because that would go against hey everybody needs to shelter in place and they picked i think covid is this super deadly thing

SPEAKER_168: everybody has to shelter in place over children giving them way too much credit i think what happened was they had a position to re-aggregate lost power and they took it that's real sense they did not think about the true consequences and it may not have happened at any one individual reporter level but when it ladders up to the editorial board and the decisions of the people who run the mass heads of these organizations they made the decision that currying and organizing power was more important than shining a light to do the right thing specifically in this case the thing that aggravates me the most is around our kids yeah i think they were going for ratings but anyway we

SPEAKER_384: can keep debating it well the one thing we can say for sure is they created a hysteria whether their

SPEAKER_06: motivation was ratings or a power grab or political advantage there's probably all the above but the bottom line is they wanted to create a hysteria and they've been pumping covid fear porn into the population for the last two years but my prediction like i said is that it all flips next year why because there's an election and the way the media figures out what it's going to what its narrative is going to be is they start with the election result they want and then they reverse engineer the narrative that they think is going to help achieve that election result and if it means contracting what they said yesterday they will memory hole what they said yesterday in order to get on board the new narrative that is what's going to happen i do think you're right but i think i

SPEAKER_168: just i want to i don't want to lose this thread because this has nothing to do with covet meaning covet was a symptom of this but if you really thought that the organized mainstream media had the right to be you know has it has a purpose to be on the right side of justice where were they when when school boards were stripping out you know advanced placement programs for kids or where were they when they were shutting kids out or where were they when they were engaged in eight hour they can't go

SPEAKER_25: against you know a male can be on a committee you know because he's gay but he's not you know black

SPEAKER_21: i mean these were the issues that stopped our children from literally walking into the classroom

SPEAKER_23: every day well i mean they just those stories were not told and they didn't happen just in one place

SPEAKER_21: they happened all across the country and this is where those folks had a responsibility because they also probably had kids and they didn't do a thing about it that one issue for me really drives me

SPEAKER_201: crazy let me ask a probing question here we assume we're going to get out of this um you know pandemic

SPEAKER_281: in 2022 knock on wood no more variants what is the obligation and technique the strategy to solve what

SPEAKER_298: we did to these kids and i just want to put out there we don't have to answer it now but i think we could

SPEAKER_120: spend an episode that's a very difficult question jay cal that i think you need sociologists and

SPEAKER_179: psychologists and educators we also need entrepreneurship and ideas and we need to have a dialogue so we can bring them on but if we're going to spend all this money on build back

SPEAKER_112: better how about we build back the 20 lost iq points that these kids have and then we do something

SPEAKER_434: about the depression and anxiety they have hallelujah jason we're never going to get there because

SPEAKER_06: the teachers unions won't even acknowledge that learning loss exists the leaders we need to break the teachers unions period yes oh let me make a prediction in that regard next year there's going to be a ballot initiative in california to the first school choice and the way it's going to work is that i think there's something like thirteen thousand dollars spent per pupil in california that's right that's the right there's going to be there's going to be a ballot initiative that says that any parent who wants to send their kid to an accredited school can get a voucher for thirteen thousand dollars from the state that's just going to be on the ballot competition let's go i predict it will be the big big election in california and maybe the nation next year and i think more than 100 million will be spent on both sides of that thing and i i can't predict

SPEAKER_179: it's going to win i hope it does this is a topic worth fighting over this is something important to

SPEAKER_298: fight over yes absolutely it's school choice because you know what absolutely these guys pulled the wool over everybody's eyes they slipped them the mickey they hoodwinked them you need choice we know this is entrepreneurs if there is no competition things do not get better these school unions are

SPEAKER_315: complacent well let's make a resolution let's make a new year's resolution because i think we all agree

SPEAKER_06: on this um i got approached about this ballot initiative let's do it it's it's gonna happen there's gonna be uh like i said a major ballot initiative next year for school choice in california let's all get behind it money and put it towards that let's get behind it all in summit

SPEAKER_328: profits will put towards this yes let's do it let's put like i'm in i'm in let's put some money behind

SPEAKER_168: this i want to tell you just to more personalize this issue because i really think a lot of people listening struggle with this i entered the pandemic with rules i had rules about devices i had rules about you know how much time they could be online i had rules around physical fitness right i had

Chamath Palihapitiya: rules around diet and it all went out the window and it became this thing where it was like feed them the best they can sometimes they eat lunch with us sometimes they have to eat lunch by themselves because i'm stuck on some stupid zoom you know back to back in these dumb meetings because these kids aren't at school their only way to interact with their friends became video games like fortnite where they could at least talk to their friends yeah but then it became an addiction where they were doing it for hours and hours yep uh and now i'm trying to and you know they gained weight because they weren't physically active and i am trying to unwind as is not as is my ex-wife we're doing it together as a team it is so hard absolutely hard so hard and then i think what about all these people who don't have the access to the resources that i have to try to unwind this and then what happens is i send my kids to the school and oh they may have a headache guess what they get sent home and then their brother and sister have to get sent home too until you can test and be coveted negative for a day in a row and so there's yet another day of school loss totally not and it's like this is

SPEAKER_172: supposed to be one of the best schools in the country it's not totally i think what is every other school like then if this is what i if this is what you know my children have to do i think we

SPEAKER_208: should make this we should have this as a major theme for 2022 for the pod i think it's a very important

Chamath Palihapitiya: educators and teachers unions accountable absolutely school boards accountable all around the country to fix this this is your responsibility you need to fix it listen we held police officers

SPEAKER_112: responsible in the last year or two we've seen this you know policing being really like a spotlight put on it well let's put that same spotlight on teachers and administrators and schools they'll never do

SPEAKER_198: it they'll never do it without competition that's the only competition that's the only way to hold their

SPEAKER_112: feet and you know what what i learned to build on what you said was i just decided to get a teacher and obviously i have the means to do it it's i know most people don't i certainly didn't have it growing up we could barely you know afford to exist but i think homeschooling is a viable option so with that 13k i can tell you five parents um who are in an underprivileged area can take that five times their teen and take that what is that 65k and put it together and for 65k they can hire a teacher and they can do a better job with those parents and a teacher for those five kids i guarantee it so let's go to best performing asset of 2022 what do you got your mom this is simple

Chamath Palihapitiya: this will be battery metals uh lithium nickel cobalt okay graphite put them in a basket like you can be

SPEAKER_157: along these things and okay rapid fire sacks what do you got best performing i just said series a

SPEAKER_06: venture because it's pretty unoriginal it's what i do i think growth got a little bit overfunded and overheated and i think the seed stage also there's like so there were so many new seed investors again it might have been partially because of excess liquidity so series a is still the choke point and i think it's still the best area to invest in innovation is not going to stop there's going to be

SPEAKER_360: great series a investments next year i also picked early stage startups because that's where the magic

SPEAKER_179: happens i picked early stage like right before series a i think spacking uh direct listings raising money people coming down to do the series b's all of that is creating a pull for more startups and the founders are getting very sophisticated in terms of finding product market fit and scaling globally um you know earlier and that's what's creating these great big outcomes whether it was uber or facebook both figuring out and or airbnb how to go global quickly so my choice for best performing asset of 2022 is still early stage startups freeberg what he got obviously best performing asset in terms of a

SPEAKER_120: multiples basis you're never going to beat seed stage investing certainly um but uh you know i tried to highlight uh and continue my uh kind of contrarian bet that we're going to see increased global conflict

SPEAKER_127: next year again driven by you know incumbents trying to hold on to political office and increase uh inflation and fueling economic growth and the american response to china so in a world of increased global conflict i think assets that do really well are energy commodities and energy stocks i recently

SPEAKER_120: made a big bet on energy stocks uh defense stocks and it used to be a gold it could be the case that bitcoin uh you know sees a a role as being a defensive uh position in portfolios in a world of uh of war and conflict so those are my kind of macro um games for for asset most anticipated trend

SPEAKER_281: of 2022 what do you got jama a trend you're anticipating in 2022 peer-to-peer payments um the

SPEAKER_156: destruction of traditional rails uh it will come out of africa great sacks what do you got this is

SPEAKER_450: where i had the civil war between progressives and pragmatic liberals um so building on what jama said

SPEAKER_06: you're already seeing this in the feud between london breed and chesa budine that is really gonna i think blossom next year we have not heard the last of that you saw it in philadelphia where the mayor uh michael nutter took on larry krasner i think you're gonna see it in new york city between eric adams and these manhattan elites um and you also saw in washington dc where the progressives were blaming mansion for you know the losing the build back better so this is a civil war it's going to continue and uh what jama predicted with aoc versus schumer would would certainly play into that so uh it's grab the popcorn it is the the trend i'm anticipating the most all right there you go uh

SPEAKER_220: do you anticipate a similar trend with like the alt-right trumpians and desantis and that kind of

SPEAKER_06: thing breaking up how do you see that playing out not not yet because um trump isn't on the ballot in 2022 so i actually think the republican party is going to be surprisingly united in 2022 i think where the trouble might come in is when we have a republican primary in 2023 and especially if trump runs then you know all hell's gonna break loose so who is it who are the two people who would be most

SPEAKER_179: viable against trump in that 2023 ron desantis and ted cruz nikki haley nikki haley that's gonna be that's gonna be fireworks freeberg what do you got anticipated trend my biggest uh anticipated trend

SPEAKER_127: for 2022 is going to be a gold rush in biotech into um what i think will become the cover story on magazines throughout the year that humans have discovered the fountain of youth um and this

SPEAKER_120: will arise from these investments in what are called yamanaka factor based cell reprogramming methods i've talked about this on the pod in the past a few years ago uh scientists identified that four chemicals could trigger gene expression in cells and get those cells to effectively revert to being stem

SPEAKER_127: cells and more recently demonstrated that using uh lower amounts of those chemicals and other what are called kind of epigenetic epigenetic factors can trigger partial cell reprogramming which causes cells in the body to act youthful as a result of those discoveries an absolute gold rush is now underway um more recently yuri milner jeff bezos arch and others put a billion dollars to seed a new company called altos labs to pursue therapeutics in this area google has individually funded a company called calico led by art levinson the former founder and ceo of genentech and just recently blake byers and brian armstrong announced their new company called new limit with 100 million dollars their own personal capital all of these companies are pursuing the same effort which is basically causing cells to be youthful to regenerate in a youthful way and as a result you see kind of organs um and and systems in the body uh act more healthily and there will be magazine covers and you know uh 60 minutes article stories and all sorts of stuff will start to happen in 2022 saying oh my gosh as because the amount of money that's gone in in this year is going to cause breakthroughs and discoveries to start to get published about next year and when that starts to happen and the media and the pr cycle start to kick up you'll see this become the year of yamanaka factor based reprogramming

SPEAKER_478: and everyone's saying it's gonna be the biggest gold rush um in biotech since recombinant dna um was

SPEAKER_209: used by genentech in the uh in the 80s and 90s all right and uh i had uh most anticipated trend of 2022

SPEAKER_179: being the accredited investor laws are going to change and evolve and it might just be you take a test and you're now accredited it doesn't matter if you won the lottery or you make 200 000 a year and a legal crypto framework is going to happen i think at the same time so those regulations combined are going to empower really interesting capital formation uh on a global basis whether it's running a syndicate with everybody in the world including non-accredited investors or dows or those two things merging uh or as biology is talking about you know a cap table over here that's mirrored on a blockchain at the same time and people being able to trade their interest in chamats fund or sax's fund or one of my syndicates with tokens on the internet and that could become that's pretty

SPEAKER_08: cool a major unlock where you know if you were in i don't have a fund i run a meager family office

SPEAKER_179: well if you were in your earlier funds and somebody and there was still stuff trickling to social capital three the people who have that could sell it back to you or sell it to each other if they wanted to get liquidity um and that's going to be super interesting especially if it can happen just globally where some person in china decides they want to have access to u.s uh funds rlps could just start selling if it was structured that way most anticipated film tv series media yada yada for

SPEAKER_41: 20 2022 what do you got yellowstone season nine uh sex so i watched the first two episodes it's really

SPEAKER_201: great i mean you forget what a great actor um what's his name is uh kevin costner kevin costner is a great

SPEAKER_06: actor yes yellowstone is great i'll be watching next season but what i had down here is thor ragnarok uh the writer director it's like uh what td is back if you saw um the last thor movie ragnarok ragnarok was the last one the new one is called thor love and thunder yeah and you know thor went from being i think one of the most boring marvel characters in the first two movies to totally being one of the funniest and yeah you know most most fun in his last movie so i think that sequel will be really good and then the other one is they're doing a prequel show for game of thrones called house of the dragon i'm gonna have to watch that and then the probably the the um star wars show i'm looking forward to most would be the obi-wan kenobi show with ewan mcgregor so that was anakin

SPEAKER_179: it's based on the phone and i had as well the obi-wan show the boba fett show and the mandalorian shows all coming back are going to be absolutely bonkers and then there's also this um token uh series that's coming out the prequel i think that amazon spending a billion dollars on and i think

SPEAKER_157: that's landing in 2022 uh what do you got chamath it is the all-in summit in may in miami and uh

Chamath Palihapitiya: uh the the birth of all in media so i think that we by the end of 2022 will have um published content written content not necessarily by us but uh other forms of uh media interaction that get the truth

SPEAKER_172: out to a wow large swath of humanity here we go is this moving is this moving beyond just a couple of

SPEAKER_306: besties doing a podcast during lockdown what what wait so all in media is that a new acronym aim all

SPEAKER_316: in me aim oh what are we doing should we buy like a cable channel and just go 24 hours the name is the

SPEAKER_371: truth in media aim media okay there you go i didn't even know this is news to the rest of us but chamath

SPEAKER_495: is uh building on the media bro okay here we go who are we gonna hire tucker um there'll be no shortage

SPEAKER_172: of folks who will want to come out of the woodwork to work with us on this and i think the goal should

Chamath Palihapitiya: just be to make sure we figure out what the real north star is so that we never deviate and part of the biggest things that we did guys was not trying to hustle for some few you know shekels here or there which was like jay cal wanted to yeah what are you talking about we're gonna talk in a minute about the plan for the summer purity the purity of not wrapping this thing with crappy ads and all kinds of nonsense is we've never lost our way we don't need some stupid deal for some crappy media company we all have independent ways in which we can monetize our lives and our hard work and so

SPEAKER_201: we should come to this to always tell the truth i think that that's a one of the i will say one of

SPEAKER_425: the great innovations that and decisions that you championed was not putting ads on it i hear it all the time for people i mean we're saving you from yourself jake it's an interesting idea where you

SPEAKER_161: media's advertising basis if you have a business that's not driven by advertising dollars and not

SPEAKER_127: driven by greater by trying to maximize page views and clicks and visits yeah um then it completely changes the equation of what's possible i think this was part of the idea of what publicly funded media was supposed to be but it obviously got you know maybe a little bit too far afield yeah it was

SPEAKER_179: it's just too yeah it's just too well then they started adding ads i don't know if you remember that they lost some funding and they're like okay we're gonna go for sponsorships they're not ads they're

SPEAKER_515: sponsorships so you're saying we're the new pbs no it's something different i mean this is we do

SPEAKER_518: this without any expectation of financial reward we do it because we enjoy it and so well except for

SPEAKER_520: you jacow you've been no i mean i have other things that make money thank you very much

SPEAKER_525: i didn't know we were doing this category

SPEAKER_156: what bbc show that nobody watches are you going to recommend does it matter i mean come on what show

SPEAKER_161: from finland with subtitles uh i don't know you know i i spent a lot of time watching um like esoteric videos and stuff i find on youtube i really think it's so interesting it's such a different way of

SPEAKER_543: consuming media just tell us what video game you're playing wes anderson is putting out a porno we'll be on the vernicular going up and i felt like i was in the louvre watching this movie all right

SPEAKER_545: what video game are you playing i called uh i called freeberg on the phone to talk about the ledge when

SPEAKER_548: he was going crazy on the group chat and he's like i can't talk about a video game what video game i

SPEAKER_127: was actually playing a video game by anna perna interactive which is larry ellison's daughter's um media production company and apparently i didn't know this they had a video game arm and the video games are and the game i was playing was called maquette and um you kind of you kind of have this like interesting movie like poetic experience as you play the game so it's not really just designed to be action-packed and i don't know i thought it was a very interesting new way of um entertaining

SPEAKER_552: okay we can move on it was highly stimulating she made a simulation of a biology lab and uh you

SPEAKER_100: actually get different beaker sizes and you have different sub proteins that you start with you'll get to buy all of these lab equipment you want but it needs a virtual currency it's kind of like a simulation it's like the sims but you must first mine it and the way that you mine is by solving

SPEAKER_221: mathematical equations i made a cruelty-free fish device dish uh in my laboratory because of the

SPEAKER_40: genocide of fish that was a little controversial take last week i got dms from people that was a spicy take freeberg did you get any blowback from that spicy take last week the

SPEAKER_237: spiciest stuff i did i'm actually going to respond to everyone that sent me a note directly

SPEAKER_145: was it really because i people are like you're well i think well here's the thing the comment

SPEAKER_117: i made that i think really triggered people was i said that animal agriculture is worse than human

SPEAKER_127: slavery and uh maybe i'll just address it now real quick yeah you know i think the point of view that people took away from that was that i diminished you know the pain and the the resonance uh in today's kind of socioeconomic context of uh human slavery particularly recently in america um and that wasn't my intention at all uh clearly not your intention yeah what i'm trying to highlight is you know first of all human slavery has been around as long as humans have been around right for 10 000 years back to ancient egypt the enslavement of humans the the removal of opportunity and freedom granted to every living being um is is certainly manifest in the form of human slavery and we kind of take it as a very acute pain point what i was highlighting is every year over 100 billion land-based animals are killed and they're born and put in in chains and put in jails and then murdered and eaten by humans as routine and we don't like lift our head up and recognize just how serious and how scaled this this um you know this behavior is the industrialization of this process uh is really abhorrent and there's videos you can watch and i think when you watch them you'll recognize

SPEAKER_306: this delicious yeah i knew it was coming yeah don't do it you know but i do think that chamas you

SPEAKER_127: know chamas voice in this is is really the voice that's kept this from ever becoming an issue because it's not human we don't kind of pay attention to it yeah and i'm i'm just trying to highlight that there is something that is at such an extraordinary scale that we don't pay attention to that one day we'll wake up and we'll be like oh my god how do we miss that complete agreement with you freeberg if

SPEAKER_41: you look at all life being precious and you say the life of a cow the life of a dog the life of a human these are all lives the scale of suffering is yeah these animals yeah these animals

SPEAKER_127: these animals can problem solve they can feel emotion they can recognize they can recognize things happening to them and to their their loved ones and their family members and i think that in the context of that to cause pain and suffering on those animals and on those creatures yeah at the scale that we do is something that's just mind-blowing to me i think that's fair enough and i expect that one day we will wake up and be like i cannot believe we allowed our society to do that but i do think that we need to solve tomorrow's problem which is how do you make something that's freaking delicious

SPEAKER_168: it's not how do you make it cheaper hold on a second it's not a problem like my perspective is i understand where you're coming from i respect your point of view but here's my point of view which is

SPEAKER_21: we evolved to superior superiority in an evolutionary process that was not pre-ordained okay and we are

Chamath Palihapitiya: now in a position where we are allowed to consume things that we choose now there is also a claim that you could make that you know what a tiger or a lion should not be attacking and killing a gazelle because you know what that's causing suffering to the gazelle or blah blah blah at the end of the day how we choose to go and consume the things that we need for sustenance is a choice that we can make and there are probably better choices we can make over time but at the end of the day i think that this was a reasonable evolution of humanity and human ingenuity and intellect and i don't feel guilty about that i don't weigh the suffering of animals the same way i weigh the suffering of human beings i

SPEAKER_127: don't and i would argue that when we were apes in the jungle and we didn't have the choice i would

SPEAKER_300: wholeheartedly agree with you but today we are a people that do have the choice what choice and it's

SPEAKER_127: because we have the choice to not eat meat and still survive and still be happy that we can make

SPEAKER_296: a better choice taste good like there's a part of my soul i'll just and that's why i agree and that's

SPEAKER_300: why i think we need to solve that problem and that's why i believe it's not a problem if if you made an alternative for you that tasted good and was as affordable as the alternative which is actually

SPEAKER_127: killing an animal you would choose it and we haven't given you that solution yet and when i say we i mean call it the techno food people but there is a tremendous amount of money going into this area and we will devise artificially produced meat that will not be made by killing an animal but will be

SPEAKER_580: made in a lab that looks and tastes identical or a piece of sushi just give us a year over you'll have

SPEAKER_306: a piece of sushi in three years you will have uh you will be able to go taste chicken next year

SPEAKER_161: it'll be very very expensive okay uh but cell-based uh meat will be available at a commercial scale

SPEAKER_586: our you know steak that's really what it's about david my commitment to you is i will do a taste test

SPEAKER_21: whenever you say what you call that you you pick the place the time totally i will show up and if it's better i will never eat meat again okay we're not ready we're not ready for that and that's a

SPEAKER_551: that's a great commitment all right yeah and i and i i am similar in the commitment but in the

SPEAKER_41: meantime it's not tasty it's distasteful but i will say friedberg if you're going to have a party

SPEAKER_590: and it's only vegan you need to put that on the invite because i came thinking you were going to

SPEAKER_592: see you came to my party there was no meat he was really upset he was going around he was going around my party being like what the hell is this there's no meat in this party what am i doing here

SPEAKER_590: can you make me a hamburger the woman from wherever napa was like i've never touched meat in 30 years

SPEAKER_236: whatever credible ribeye on new year on christmas eve oh my god all right everybody for the dictator

SPEAKER_41: himself chamath palihapitiya with great hair uh touch of gray never looked better and the sultan of science david freeberg and tarker carlson's bestie gop front runner david sachs super spreading

SPEAKER_598: covid super spreading the truth super spreading the truth david sacks from an undisclosed bestie

SPEAKER_600: uh a hideaway uh which we all know but we won't say i'm jacow and we'll see you in 2022 it's been a great year bye-bye

SPEAKER_104: what your winners brain man david sacks

SPEAKER_618: we need to get murkies