SPEAKER_00: all right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world that's right it's your

SPEAKER_02: favorite podcast it's your podcaster's favorite pocket that's the all-in podcast we're back baby is here our chairman our dictator how you doing brother great yeah fantastic you know you put the uber stock price and the robinhood stock price together 150 i'm annoying 200 i'm insufferable

SPEAKER_06: and 250 we just hit i am off the reservation officially hopping the fence so yeah that's

SPEAKER_09: good all right with us again david sachs the czar by the way what's the reason why your robinhood stock

SPEAKER_11: is through the roof because the crypto policies of the trump administration yeah it's fair fair

SPEAKER_15: that's half of it that's why it's gone from what is it like three dollars to 130 billion two two

SPEAKER_16: dollars i paid less than a penny for my shares but yes it went from 13. well this is a typical liberal

SPEAKER_17: you benefit from our policies and then you trash them i'm a moderate independent moderate here we

SPEAKER_18: go now it's it's starting already it's going to be a great week everybody buckle up and what's the

SPEAKER_24: namaste in your payday our fifth bestie is back brad welcome home it's great to be here

SPEAKER_25: great to be i went out and got a hair welcome back into the fold welcome back i got a haircut on the

SPEAKER_27: occasion i mean jason jason do you know how long it's been since i was last on this pod i don't

SPEAKER_29: know i've invited you like 12 times but i think the emails there's something going on with email i didn't

SPEAKER_31: get any of my white house invitations you didn't get any all-in invitations i mean it's been so long

SPEAKER_32: since it's been so long since i was on this pod i went back and listened the last show i was on okay we were still talking about how great chamas facts were before they crashed the entire market

SPEAKER_34: and he's already back i mean it was before saxipu saved the entire crypto industry from prison

SPEAKER_32: and certain bankruptcy and jason it was before you got so tilted with democrats that you went completely off grid moved to texas and bought a bunch of guns there it is it's been a minute so

SPEAKER_18: much has changed in a fortnight wow here we are well we'll all back and we're having some fun we'll

SPEAKER_38: have a little fun with our fifth bestie who's here only a five billion dollar drawdown for me between

SPEAKER_40: those memories but who's complaining who's counting i mean after a certain number

SPEAKER_22: we've got to start off with the israel hamas ceasefire deal thanks to president trump who announced it just yesterday we tape on thursdays he announced it on wednesday you'll listen to this on friday hopefully and he announced the first phase of a multi-stage peace deal notably it was on the day

SPEAKER_54: after the two-year anniversary of the horrific october 7th attacks which led obviously to the invasion of gaza and this war has been particularly devastating for gaza most of the region's been destroyed 2.3 million residents have been displaced and according to the gaza health ministry which i know some people will debate over 67 000 palestinians have been killed the deal is based off of trump's 20 point

SPEAKER_22: peace plan which the white house published last week and the israeli government will vote on the

SPEAKER_00: deal today maybe even before the show comes out even with all this tragedy something has gone tremendously right when it comes to these peace negotiations and the peace talk so sacks tell us what went so right here in those negotiations i mean right now it looks like both sides have agreed

SPEAKER_59: to this deal and the first phase of the deal is for there to be a ceasefire to end active fighting

SPEAKER_17: it's going to allow unrestricted aid into gaza it's going to allow the release of all remaining israeli hostages and israel is going to release 2 000 palestinian prisoners and start withdrawing israeli

David Sacks: troops so that that is what apparently has been agreed to and the middle east has a way of disappointing you sometimes these deals don't stick but based on everything we understand to be the case right now this appears to be a big breakthrough in terms of the fighting will stop and the all the hostages will be released and i do think it is a big accomplishment by the president in terms of how this happened is because the president was willing to both cajole and coerce and use pressure with respect to both sides of the conflict long-time diplomat aaron david miller who advised both republican and democrat administrations on middle east peace negotiations for the last three decades he said that a quote here donald trump has demonstrated a degree of will unlike any other president republican or democrat he has pressed an israeli prime minister in a way that none of his predecessors have ever done on an issue that that prime minister considers vital to his political survival and the way he would define israeli security requirements so that was aaron david miller who again was the u.s negotiator in middle east peace negotiations for a quarter century and in fact he wrote a very interesting article in 2005 called israel's lawyer in which he was a little bit self-critical of the u.s's previous efforts in his own efforts saying that in the past the u.s saw its role as being to represent israel as opposed to being an objective negotiator and he he critiqued the u.s's efforts saying that we might be able to get more done if the u.s was perceived as more of an honest broker and perceived as willing to be a little bit more neutral in the negotiations and i think what he's

SPEAKER_17: seems to be saying here is that trump was willing to do that he was willing to pressure netanyahu as well as hamas i mean obviously you saw in the last few days that he said that if hamas did not agree to this all all hell would break loose so he was willing to basically pressure both sides into accepting this deal and you have to give him credit for it for where things stand right now and you are seeing it seems like virtually everyone's giving him credit even the new york times even john meacham was on msnbc this morning giving president trump credit for doing the seemingly impossible the reason i say even john meacham is because meacham is frequently criticizing president trump as being a fascist or having authoritarian tendencies and even he had to acknowledge that trump had pulled off the

SPEAKER_56: seemingly impossible here today all right chamath obviously this is going to have a pretty positive impact on the region so as we look at you know if this does uh and again you know we've got to be

SPEAKER_54: cautious here because as sacks pointed out correctly in the middle east you know sometimes these things

SPEAKER_22: fall apart and they're delicate but let's assume that this uh peace deal does make its way to fruition and what is it going to look like in the region post peace between these two nations i mean i don't know

SPEAKER_66: so let's start with that nobody knows nobody knows i think it's been a very unpredictable place for a

Chamath Palihapitiya: very long time that being said what is the rational thing that has to happen i think that most of these countries are facing a very obvious problem which is they have a resource that is becoming increasingly less valuable that resources oil and so the practical reality is you want peace so that you can focus on the forward monetization of your reserves so when that oil sits in the ground the longer it sits in the ground the less valuable it is to you because it doesn't actually add to your balance sheet the faster you can monetize the oil then the faster you can deploy it into other things including services for your own citizens now the longer you wait to do that the problem that we are seeing is that other solutions come around the corner eventually in the 10 or 15 or 20 year time frame you'll have an abundance of electrons from nuclear in the meantime you have an abundance of electrons from net gas you have an abundance of electrons frankly from solar and all of these things will ultimately diminish the net long bid to oil so if there's instability you can't focus a hundred percent on monetization if there's stability then the entire focus needs to be on the monetization of the oil asset and i think that that's a very healthy thing because it starts to create market-driven incentives that will only accelerate all the positive things that are happening by the way and the other thing i just want to say which is personal is shout out to a friend of the pod jared kushner ackman tweeted this which i think is just so superb but in one week jared did the largest lbo ever and then also helped negotiate middle east peace it's unbelievable it's really incredible what these guys pull off and it allows that region to be a real pillar of what happens in the next 50 to 100 years all right and i think as well

SPEAKER_78: said brad that some stability in the region will help them with the transition from an oil-based economy to what you and i learned in our trips there and some of them together that they're looking to

SPEAKER_00: transition to private equity solar renewables ai owning sports teams venture capital and so many uh and tourism building new cities all of that is hard to do and then also getting investments if people feel the regions unstable and or dangerous you know it's not a good place to invest capital so let's um

SPEAKER_22: let's keep pulling the string as to what the best case scenario is here if we have true stability in

SPEAKER_32: that region well i mean you you nailed it the conditions for all of those things economic right are safety and security you don't have any economic growth in the region unless you have that you know and i think you guys covered it pretty well but maybe just highlight a broader feature i think of this presidency right i think we might call trump like the moonshot presidency if you think about

SPEAKER_85: everything he's trying to accomplish even hillary clinton said if he pulls off peace between ukraine and russia which is also going on simultaneous to these efforts that she herself will nominate him for a nobel peace prize right i look at the presidency there are moonshots going on everywhere china ai re-industrialization india pakistan ukraine you know in russia what he's doing in the middle east and if you think about moonshots we all do these in silicon valley these are high risk high reward efforts we

SPEAKER_34: want to back people who go for moonshots but the reality is most people don't have the courage to go for moonshots because there's a high probability that it won't work but if you think about this for a second after the horror of the october 7th attacks the chaos in syria the attacks by yemen the escalations fueled by iran the idea that the president whitkopf and you're right chamath our friend jared kushner could have overcome all of that right and that could have been all-out war across the middle east it could have plunged the entire middle east into utter chaos but instead he decapitated iran we brought syria into the fold we're on the verge of expanding the abraham accords and now you have

SPEAKER_85: this historic signing you know we saw it with our own eyes when sax and i were over there on the president's visit you know he is respected as a strong leader and liked in every one of these capitals that you go to you know and it's paying off if this happens whitkopf kushner and the president all deserve the nobel peace prize if even 80 of it works out i think it's worthy of a peace prize

SPEAKER_89: well and not to mention we're probably going to have at least the rumors are that there could be a china

SPEAKER_00: deal coming up at the end of this month or into next month and if we could resolve the issues with

SPEAKER_78: taiwan even something like strategic ambiguity and if there's a chance of uh ukraine and russia being settled now you've got the trifecta you get the three biggest hot spots taken off the table if you can get two of those it'd be great for humanity polymarket showing a 90 chance 90 chance that all

SPEAKER_54: israeli hostages will be returned by the end of the month which would be just tremendous and then also getting aid to these poor people suffering in gaza would also be nice to see anybody else have any

SPEAKER_11: thoughts as we as we move on to our next story i'll just say that the funny part here is to

SPEAKER_17: extent there's anything funny about the story is watching the entire global left that's been demanding a ceasefire in gaza for almost two years they've suddenly gone strangely silent now that president trump has seemingly engineered that ceasefire and uh i guess the the nobel committee is they are announcing this friday i do think that a record like this would absolutely win any other president

David Sacks: the nobel prize or at least government nomination president trump has ended seven wars in seven months before this one this would be the eighth if he pulls it off so seven obama obama won with nothing

SPEAKER_96: obama won just for being elected he just got elected nobel prize it was just kind of like a gold star

SPEAKER_78: yeah okay well let's move on to our next topic the national guard has deployed troops into chicago

SPEAKER_54: to protect ice agents and portland might be next obviously a bunch of protests have broken out in chicago after a number of these ice raids have occurred and over the last month dhs has been executing

SPEAKER_00: something called operation midway blitz in the city 800 illegal aliens have been arrested and there

SPEAKER_54: was a notable raid on september 30th by border patrol and fbi agents in chicago's south shore neighborhood where 37 illegal aliens were arrested in an apartment complex wow and uh this included flashbangs and a

SPEAKER_00: black hawk helicopter similar to what we saw in la back in june trump has 500 national guard

SPEAKER_54: troops standing by from illinois and texas and uh in case any protests get out of hand trump says they are needed to protect ice agents who are being targeted illinois governor jb pritzker and chicago mayor brandon johnson are obviously opposed to ice actions and they are calling trump an authoritarian and fighting for state rights in this regard they filed a lawsuit to try to stop it and hearing a schedule for thursday obviously the president had some losses in um a number of these national guard

SPEAKER_00: activities and we can get into the details of those mayor johnson also signed a couple of executive orders aimed at slowing down ice agents uh they've established some ice-free zones across the city that prohibit ice agents from using any city-owned property and another one bans city employees from aiding ice unless required by a criminal warrant the white house called this a quote unquote

SPEAKER_103: disgusting betrayal and said johnson was prioritizing illegals over u.s citizens your thoughts sacks well

SPEAKER_17: i think the place that starts with the democrat attitude towards crime we've seen many examples this recently you had the murder of that young ukrainian woman irena the subway by de carlos brown who was arrested 14 times and still leftist judges and prosecutors refuse to punish him or keep him off the streets there was a testimony of stephen federico before a congressional subcommittee who

David Sacks: recounted how his daughter logan was murdered by alexander dickey a man with over 25 felony arrests in san francisco here you got leftists are still trying to get diversion for troy mcallister who killed hana abe and elizabeth platt on new year's eve 2020 that was the case that activated all of us to get chesa boudin recalled successfully so look you have here so many examples of leftist prosecutors and judges and activists always trying to get repeat felons off trying to get them diversion never prosecuting them they're in favor of zero bail they've turned the jails into a revolving door and that's why you see in places like chicago or washington dc enormous amounts of violent crime now in dc the president had the ability to clean up the streets to clean up the homeless encampments make the streets safer no one denied the feds had a right to go in and they did and there have been immediate positive results homicides and carjackings and so forth have fallen dramatically everyone who actually lives in dc is very happy about this situation the restaurants are full again people feel safe to go out so the question is where else can the president basically help these cities and go in

SPEAKER_17: in memphis they have been invited by the republican governor to go in and help and so they will now with portland and chicago the problem here is that frankly you've got mayors and governors who are opposed

David Sacks: to doing anything about the crime problem and moreover they refuse to support ice and dhs in their mission to enforce immigration laws and then finally you've got violent leftist protesters like antifa who've taken to the streets and they are trying to thwart deportations of violent aliens by ice and dhs in response to that the president has sent somewhere between i think 300 and 500 national guardsmen to support ice in chicago it's not a broad-based mission to clean up the streets because you know we still have to figure out what the legal authority to do that is they're just there to support ice and yet you see all this hysterical bluster and rhetoric by jb pritzker and other democrats basically claiming this authoritarian it's not it's a very limited operation to support ice and dhs in their lawful mission to enforce immigration laws and there's no question that the president has this authority both eisenhower and jfk sent federal troops into the south to enforce federal desegregation laws for example when james meredith was barred from attending old miss university mississippi jfk sent in 30 000 federal troops to bust open the doors of old miss and by the

SPEAKER_17: way they were not national guardsmen these were the army so presidents have sent in troops they have

David Sacks: sent a national guardsman to enforce the law in american cities he absolutely has the right and power to do this but like i said this is somewhere between 300 and 500 guardsmen sent to back up ice who is being assaulted by violent protests and riders by antifa and what you're seeing by the mainstream

SPEAKER_59: media and by liberals is an attempt to mischaracterize the situation all right just to put some numbers on

SPEAKER_54: mat for the dc national guard being called out obviously trump and the president whatever president is clearly has the rights to do that for a certain period of time and um if you look at this washington

SPEAKER_00: post story i'll send it to you for post 61 of people said in dc according to the washington post a survey that the people in washington dc said the military police president has made them feel less safe 79 of people polled in dc and the same survey said they don't want the national guard in the city so there is a lot of conflicting data here but overwhelmingly indecent that's not data that's an

SPEAKER_108: opinion no it's an emotional it was a survey that's not data what is the crime data if we're gonna do

SPEAKER_17: surveys yeah sure there was a poll last week from tip insights which showed that trump what's tip insights i've never heard of it t-i-p-p it's this was cited by newsweek i can put the link on the screen okay i've never heard of it well they're a pollster well washington post was when i said it yeah well okay and i'm sure they're perfectly objective right next you're gonna be quoting the new york times to tell me how objective they are here's tip they're a pollster these tip insights showed that trump had a net positive rating among voters in cities 47 to 44 and that his numbers have improved

David Sacks: recently so look i think this is tremendously popular with the citizens of these crime-infested cities we saw this with dc that the locals the residents including among the black population were very happy with the fact that trump sent in the national guard and crime has been massively reduced sorry can

Chamath Palihapitiya: i say something you know why it's popular and it's working because of what west moore did west moore is the perfect example of what i think a democrat governor should be doing which is obviously he has to blather on with his anti-trump rhetoric but what does he do behind the scenes he sends in state troops and he makes sure that there's a surge of policing in all of these crime-ridden areas because he knows that the policy works he just wants to get the credit for it and he doesn't necessarily want somebody else to get the credit this is where i think what's happening in illinois is a bit of a head-scratcher because if you see how badly run and how crime-infested chicago is and the state of illinois is why wouldn't jb pritzker do what west moore does i think the honest thing that they should be doing is to recognize that the citizens on the ground in these places want to live in a safe and peaceful place and with more policing and with more troops it's just statistically true that crime comes down and i think at the end of the day probably the citizens of these places care less whether they're national guards troops or whether they're state troops but they just care that they're there this is why i think asking emotional reactions to me doesn't make as much sense because i feel it's a very partisan way of opining on the person who gives you the resource because i suspect if you ask the exact same question inside of baltimore to the state troops that were sent in by west moore a democrat you probably get a different response but the outcome is the same crime goes down that's what

SPEAKER_00: everybody wants brad any concerns about the militarization in the country that is occurring

SPEAKER_32: from you well i think listen nobody wants abusive tactics but let me just give you some numbers that

SPEAKER_85: caused me to believe this feels more like you know a bipartisan issue and and we have kind of the pendulum swinging back more than you know something that should cause us concern court-ordered removals and deportations average 200 000 per year 1997 to 2000 that's under clinton 200 000 a year they averaged 300 000 a year peaking at 400 000 under obama right deportations plummeted under biden at the same time we know that illegal crossings into this country kind of exploded higher and now they estimate that trump is back to the trend line of 300 to 400 000 illegal you know deportations and removals these are court-ordered removals so i might have expected the trump number to be way higher given that we just went through this massive step up in illegal crossings but i think it's really important to point out that this has been a bipartisan consistent thing that has happened in this country for 30 years i'm not talking about tactics exactly how it's going on but the deportations have

SPEAKER_34: been going on by both parties and we never it hasn't been an issue before and so it is curious that it

SPEAKER_85: is more of an issue now and then the other thing i would just underscore is if you look at what daniel

SPEAKER_34: lurry is doing in the city of san francisco he is live blogging on twitter and instagram the arrest of 100 fugitives per night i think he's had three or four of these nights now in san francisco to take these people off the street following a mayor that wouldn't even arrest people and no prosecutions because he understands as a democrat what citizens expect first is safety they want the ability to walk their kids to school to walk to dinner to play in a park and not have to worry about being safe so

SPEAKER_85: i think you know i would build on what jama said i think the smart democrats are realizing this is a bipartisan issue this is what people want it it's not inconsistent with what you know presidents obama and clinton did in their administrations in terms of deportations and so i don't think this is the hill that they want to die on jacow i'd love to hear your thoughts on on on what's going on with these

SPEAKER_54: deportations well i've been very vocal that i don't agree with the violent nature of the deportations and what ice is doing uh but obviously i am very much since sacks and i worked together on the ouster of chesa booty and obviously i care coming from a law enforcement family about law and order i think it's super important and obviously a great but i want to level the conversation up a little bit and maybe talk a little bit about the president's approval ratings and how this all connects so got a

SPEAKER_119: couple of charts i'll share with you guys here and i'll get your reactions it's not pretty for trump

SPEAKER_00: right now his polling is at an all-time low it's worse than the last couple of seasons of the apprentice in fact and when you look at this chart here of donald trump's approval rating you'll see there are four dips here and this is the net approval rating and you'll see his liberation day when he did the tariffs obviously he went a little too far on the tariffs and uh that was pretty shocking went down to a negative 10. that's taking his approval minusing the disapproval and that's how you get the net approval then the la protests remember the violent protests and the ice agents chasing people down in fields and americans didn't like that either not releasing the epstein files in july another dip down to his lowest of his presidency about 10 percent and then now we're with these chicago ice raids and the violent nature of him i believe is the cause of this and going on a little bit even from here

SPEAKER_106: if you look at his wheelhouse this is where trump won the election i think we all agree in the trump

SPEAKER_00: 2.0 platform which won a lot of moderates like myself i know on this show people like to say i'm a democrat i've voted actually now republican almost exactly as much as i've voted uh voted democrat and i am a strong moderate if you look at immigration his net approval rating has plummeted from plus 10 percent down to minus about five percent the economy he's down 15 percent he was up five percent at the stock start trade he's rebounded a little bit and inflation he's down 27 percent and so this is his wheelhouse and if you look at from barry weiss's you know organization cbs news congratulations to barry on her

SPEAKER_54: taking it over and her sale to the free press to cbs only 17 percent of americans believe trump is

SPEAKER_00: making them better this came out this week and 58 percent don't want the national guard in our cities people oppose what trump is doing right now and he is at an all-time low so you have to ask yourself why and i think this is because he's drifted from the 2.0 policies closing the border very popular lower taxes no taxes on tips extremely popular pro-business pro-innovation thank you sax you're correct this all is the best of trump doge reducing spending the best of trump and relentlessly trying to stop wars and apparently on the cusp of succeeding with the one in gaza right now this is what americans including myself moderates really like about trump what don't we like about the trump 1.0 platform the violence of january 6th ice agents in masks beating powerless hard-working immigrants sending

SPEAKER_106: in the national guards if you remember from the first administration the kids in cages the muslim immigration ban pardoning all the january 6 riders who beat police savagely trying to overturn election

SPEAKER_00: results this is what people don't like they don't like the chaos and what americans do love is they love the constitution and uh you know they love the rule of law this is where he can do really well 85 percent of americans have a favorable opinion of the constitution and 94 say it's really important to protect the liberty and freedom and what these actions and when you see pam bondy and you see steven miller trump's ratings go down when you see lutnik you see besant you see sacks you see elon and doge his approval ratings go up and so i would like to lobby my friends who are in the administration or around it and the people i know in the administration to think through this because what's at stake is the midterms the democrats are going to shellac the republicans in the midterms if this continues nobody wants this type of violence nobody wants to see people beaten nobody wants to see mothers thrown on the ground as their children are crying just because they came here 20 years ago 10 years ago when republicans republicans who were the biggest proponents of letting people in from mexico to work here because we need to cheap labor we as americans have an obligation to these people who we brought into this country to treat them with compassion and we're not doing that and that's my little monologue

SPEAKER_116: here you heard from brad that the deportations have basically mean reverted so do you think that there

Chamath Palihapitiya: were the same category of people being deported before as in now and that there's just less press coverage and it was okay then and it's not okay now or just explain this idea of mean reversion and

SPEAKER_66: whether we're getting the same and right people out of the country that we've been doing for the last

SPEAKER_135: yeah so what you're seeing is many lawsuits now of people who are americans or who are properly

SPEAKER_00: documented now suing us because the way they're pursuing this with their masks and just randomly going after people and racially profiling people is resulting in the wrong people being picked up

SPEAKER_103: and that's really what i find the most offensive about it i don't mind obviously the border being

SPEAKER_00: closed i i said that many times here i don't mind criminals being deported i think that's a great idea but i think we should look at the economics of this as well we're spending 30 billion dollars on ice

SPEAKER_24: now we've tripled the budget we're spending a hundred thousand dollars per person deported okay that's a large number if we simply find that 79 year old car wash owner ten thousand dollars every time he hires you know an illegal alien this would stop there are much better ways to execute this and so i have to ask myself what is the intent of this violence what is the intent of sending the national guard in is it actually a pure intent of wanting safety and security i don't believe what

Chamath Palihapitiya: that's all that's at work here and then a follow-up question what do you think is the difference between wes moore the governor of maryland sending in state troops and donald trump the president

SPEAKER_140: of the united states sending in federal troops into a state to help diminish crime yeah it would be

SPEAKER_106: the constitution and the united states of america not a federal government ruling over all 50 states

SPEAKER_54: the way this was set up by the founding fathers was that the states had rights and amongst those rights is the security of the people in that state it's a very rare situation so your your issue or not

SPEAKER_116: your issue but your diagnosis would be what westmore is doing is right jb should probably do that too

SPEAKER_00: i would even take it a little further is that yeah i i think actually the the best thing to do if trump is intent on saying hey crime's out of control in san francisco which we all experienced and you guys continue to experience if you're if you're in the city i don't live in the city but if people did go to the city i think what i would do if i was the governor and say you know what we could use your help and we're going to call up the national guard ourselves and we could use some help in these 17 locations we'd love to collaborate with you so it's not an outcome thing

SPEAKER_39: for you it's a procedural process that says it needs to go through a different pathway it's the violence

SPEAKER_00: and the cruelty of it that i object to and it's the inefficiency in terms of the cost of it i don't believe that mothers should be separated from their from their children or their father should be separated from their children i don't believe it should be done in a brutal way and doesn't need to be it could very easily be done with other tactics and that is what i take great offense to is both of those things the inefficiency of it and then also i take offense to the derailing of the trump 2.0 agenda which i was in favor of and i will call balls and strikes when trump tips back into those authoritarian tendencies that the trump 1.0 agenda that i've talked about i'm not in favor of that i don't like i would much prefer to see us be compassionate to immigrants i would much rather see us take a

SPEAKER_24: softer hand and a path to these folks who've been here for 20 or 30 years i'd see i'd like to see a

SPEAKER_00: path to them to become citizens because i think immigrate this country was built by immigrants for immigrants and i believe we should continue that but it should be legal immigration and if people were here illegally because republicans and democrats who were super in favor of nafta wanted them here

SPEAKER_24: we should take ownership of that and be kind and compassionate to them and give them a path if

SPEAKER_132: they're not criminals and if they pay their taxes which almost universally they do we should give them

SPEAKER_150: a path to citizenship all right well the first thing i want to do is point out that you mentioned

SPEAKER_17: that doge was one of the most wonderful and popular things that president trump did and i agree that it was a great thing that he did basically trying to streamline the government and make it more efficient but it was not popular it had only a 35 approval rating while 57 disapproved why is that because the media pounded on doge and elon and turned him into a villain and tried to mischaracterize what he was trying to do and blamed him for every possible thing that was supposedly going wrong in the federal government so look obviously the polling is not always a great indicator even when it is accurate and i remember when ann seltzer told us that trump was going to lose iowa by 10 so obviously these pollsters often have no idea what they're talking about in terms of the merits of this you're completely ignoring the fact that there are lawless mobs who are the ones creating the violence not our law enforcement officers not ice not dhs in the city of downtown portland for example you have literal antifa terrorists who are extremely organized they're aggressive and they're well funded this

David Sacks: is not just some sort of ragtag bunch the white house uncovered a bunch of left-wing ngos who are funding antifa along with other leftist protest groups these ngos have laundered over 100 million dollars of our money to fund terrorist violence in our streets antifa even has a safe house near the

SPEAKER_17: epicenter of the unrest in downtown portland that local cops and local media know about but nothing's being done and it's this group that has basically terrorized downtown portland and led to violent

David Sacks: assaults not our law enforcement officers but when this violence breaks out because of antifa then the media blames the trump administration for it so i'm not surprised that the polling reflects that because that that's what the media does but look the bottom line here is what is the policy that the trump administration should pursue and previous administrations have pursued deportations and so as a trump administration i don't think you can have 10 to 15 million illegal immigrants allowed during the biden years and then just say there's gonna be an amnesty i mean what are we supposed to do this situation was not created by trump it was created by biden they opened up the border there were holes in the border walls millions of people streamed through they were bussed all over the country trump won on fixing that problem and deportations were part of the mandate now he's doing it can't just be a one-way ratchet when the republicans are in power they close the border and though when the democrats are in power they open it up allow 10 15 million illegals in and then we can do nothing about it when we take power no that's not the way this works there has to be a correction to what biden did which was outrageous and i remember plenty of liberals while that was going on they were saying that the videos we saw on fox news were cherry picked they said that there was no real situation at the border we were gaslit constantly about it whereas every single person who actually visited the border said the same thing that it was outrageous that biden had opened up the border that people are streaming through they were running through and trump won on a mandate of fixing this problem and now that he is fixing it what we have people do is claim that he's the source of the violence no antifa and left-wing rioters are the source of the violence you don't see this violence in red cities and you don't even see it in the blue cities which have offered to cooperate with trump like memphis or like dc so when you see cooperation from these cities they are actually cleaning them up but in chicago and in portland you have violent protesters and that is the source of the problem and the media

SPEAKER_104: can blame it all on trump as much as they want but fundamentally that is what's going on okay let's move on to our next topic anybody else i'm surprised it's someone who normally supports law enforcement that you're not backing these guys up oh i support law enforcement i do not think they

SPEAKER_00: should um do it the way they're doing it it's the violence it's the cruelty that i object okay i don't

SPEAKER_54: mind people being held accountable for crossing the border i don't mind the deportations

SPEAKER_00: i do think how do you think it should be done jaco yeah so a very simple method would be if you went to people who are employing and because the people who are here illegal are here to build a better life for their families and to live the american dream that's why they're here they're here to get a job and to have a better life for their children if they are working illegally and so they're here these are the most industrious people i've ever met in my life immigrants including the two of you most industrious people are the immigrants uh we know that and so a very simple way to do this if you

SPEAKER_24: wanted to do without cruelty and without burning a hundred thousand dollars per person is to go to where they're being employed and if you saw this terrible video of a 79 year old man being tackled

SPEAKER_54: by two ice agents and he's suing the government for 50 million that's not the way to do it you go to that

SPEAKER_24: car wash you say i'd like to see everybody's paper everybody runs they show you the papers

SPEAKER_00: whichever person is not actually employed there legally and who doesn't have their papers you give a 10 000 fine and then you come back the next day and you give a 20 000 fine and if you did that this would be incredibly effective and you wouldn't have the brutality you have under no circumstances and i've talked to many of my relatives who are cops and many of my friends they look at what ice is doing and they see it as being unnecessarily brutal all you have to do is go to where they're working and give the fines and then round people up who are in fact criminals no problem with any gang members or any felons to be taken down and to sometimes you have to do that with force obviously if they're criminals but for everybody else we can do this compassionately and we can do it much more efficiently we could do it by just paying people to self-deport and we can increase that rate and actually that actually has been working the story hasn't been told yet i think we'll see that in the statistics that of the three or four hundred thousand people we wind up deporting probably a third of them are going to be people

SPEAKER_130: who self-deported and we'll we'll share those statistics here as we go but it's true i'll just

SPEAKER_17: note that in dc dc is the city where trump was first able to basically get involved in trying to stop the crime because he was able to bring in the national guard and everyone understands the feds run dc so he has

David Sacks: a free hand have we seen any of the problems that we're talking about in dc no we haven't it's calm people can go out at night they're going to restaurants again the citizens are happy why because the things you're talking about are the result of violent antifa protests in chicago and portland because the local politicians like jb pritzker have an incentive to blame everything on trump and they've been turning a blind eye to these local gangs who are creating all the problems yeah we're in a

SPEAKER_00: strong agreement that antifa and i'll add to it the proud boys and oath keepers who brought tons of guns to the capital and uh who ran january 6th i agree with you all of those radical organizations should be handled uh we're in strong agreement and just the fact that you bring up the non sequitur

SPEAKER_104: of january 6th tells me that you've lost this debate i'm not looking to to win a debate with

SPEAKER_00: you sex i'm not in the debate club but you can win whatever debate you want i'm just giving my opinion but the more and just to give a little nuance here with the doge thing i agree that it was unpopular with the libs but what i when i was talking about was the moderates who won trump the election this year which you had a big part in david you you turned a lot of the moderates uh you know the fiscally

SPEAKER_22: conservative but socially liberals uh in our community the tech community you're directly

SPEAKER_106: responsible for that i might argue this podcast and you and chamath and your support of trump

SPEAKER_22: and the 2.0 agenda was a big part of him getting elected i've heard from people in and around the administration they believe that that was a key part in their success this time so when i say that

SPEAKER_54: the people were in support of doge i'm talking specifically about moderates and the people who backed the trump 2.0 agenda just to clean that up i do agree with you that uh yeah uh but you can

SPEAKER_165: roll your eyes i'm not trying to win a debate with you i'm just telling you my my opinion polls can

David Sacks: give us interesting information but they're also a snapshot in time and what really matters is the results of the policies and i think that if you look at dc hold on you look at dc just a couple of months ago before trump went in the left was basically shrieking hysterically that it was authoritarian that was fascist and so forth and so on that all these arguments is going to be brutal the population trump goes in there and it's worked amazingly well i will let you have the last word i don't think we should be abandoning the poor populations these inner cities to the predatory crime that they've been subjected to for decades that their democrat politicians have done absolutely nothing about quite frankly these cities are something like 90 10 democrat if we can just make them 75 25 then i don't think republicans will lose elections anymore so i'm glad trump is trying to do this we've seen these examples over and over again this is why wes moore is doing what he's doing exactly

Chamath Palihapitiya: i think the tactic works and i think jason we are moving away from whether the tactic works or not to who is trying to frame themselves to take the credit and if you look at the democratic path to the presidency we've heard this before but wes is sort of at the front of the line and i think he's seen that this is the right place to be on this point so i think it's like he doesn't want the success if it doesn't accrue to him that's why he sent in state troops in maryland into all the hot spots i think what will be interesting is in three or four months from now when we see the incremental crime stats data and whether we see wes wrap that up in a big bow and say look what i did and i think if you do i think what you will have seen is a successful policy that was co-opted at the state level because they want to take the credit for it and all right you'll find an adequate number of journalists who will want to paint that as a oh wow look at this invention that has happened but the artifact will be

SPEAKER_174: that trump initiated and instigated it now if people copy it that's a smart thing to do if it works

SPEAKER_54: absolutely you cannot deny that uh law and order is at the top of everybody's list in terms of just

SPEAKER_00: living a productive life all right next up on the agenda oh bestie brad you're gonna love this one amd and open ai just closed a massive gpu deal could be worth 60 billion or more over the next five years obviously uh two companies are run by friends of the pod lisa from amd and sam from open ai both been on the pod amd stock rocketed up 35 since the announcement open ai committed to purchasing six gigawatts worth of amd's next gen gpus a little bit of an interesting wrinkle here amd granted open ai

SPEAKER_106: warrants okay that's interesting for up to 160 million shares or 10 of the companies and with that

SPEAKER_22: massive increase in their stock price brad i think this means that open ai is going to get a lot of gpus essentially for free big dialogue has started brad around these round-tripping conflicted party

SPEAKER_24: transactions is that how some people would describe them specifically the sec do you have concerns about the ai trade and the amount of circulation of shares gpus and cash that's going on right now and

SPEAKER_85: i know you're in the deck of this yeah and and maybe before we get into round tripping and circular revenues which i do want to hit i think it's super important that we talk about that let's just break down the deal a little bit because there's a lot going on and i think i think it's important we put context around it so first this is a bet the farm bet by lisa sue right she's giving away 10 of the

SPEAKER_34: company if the compute gets deployed she said a couple weeks ago we're in year two of 10 of a compute build out across the country so i i have a couple charts here why would she make a bet the farm bet jason right that's an important question remember nvidia just did a huge deal with open ai they didn't give away any other company in fact they got the right to buy part of open ai so look at this chart this is pretty wild just in 22 in 2022 two and a half years ago nvidia and amd had basically the same revenue 25 billion dollars right this year nvidia will do 10x that at roughly you know 210 230 billion dollars and amd will do 33 billion right not much more than they were doing when the companies were tied in 2022 so nvidia has captured nearly a hundred percent of the incremental ai data center revenues over the course of last two and a half years and i think there's this notion that somehow nvidia just popped out this special ai chip but i think if you listen to gents and understand study the company it's because they have this ecosystem of software networking extreme co-design the unit of compute is no longer the chip right it's the entire data center which is composed of you know five to ten different chips performance per watt right power being the constrained resource here is everything and nvidia's just crushed the competition so now put yourself in the shoes of lisa right and she's clearly not on the wave this tsunami has come jensen's riding it he's capturing a hundred percent of the wave and she's not even yet on the wave her mi350 was just not competitive and so they have one shot either the mi450 gets adopted and they get back into the game right or or or they're out she's a total warrior i think she believes in the 450 she went to her board and she said listen this is we got to take the shot here we got to bet the farm if it works she's going to get 150 billion of incremental revenue just from open ai right for building out five gigawatts and on top of that of course it could unlock a lot of the other market because now it will have validated that they have a a chip that works but it's far from a done deal far from a conclusion whether the 450 is going to work can it compete against vera rubin can it compete against uh rubin ultra all super important questions so that's one you know that that's the amd deal why have we switched

SPEAKER_78: from saying oh colossus bought you know xai's data center a hundred thousand h100s 200 000 h100s to now framing these in gigawatts i think it's important for people to understand why that's now how deals are being framed just in the last three months has changed yeah i think i think there

SPEAKER_32: are a couple constraining features number one chips change right so a hundred thousand h100s is not

SPEAKER_34: you know is not apples for apples with the number of gb 200s you know grace blackwell 200s or gb 300s and so it's hard to talk about them you're comparing apples and oranges when you're comparing these data centers so a unifying metric of compare right is the the power that goes in everything starts with the power it's the constrained resource so we can compare a gigawatt of power because it's remember it's power in and it's tokens out and we can compare that over time and normalize across all these different chips and it's not just these two companies you got tranium by amazon tpu by google cerebris groc etc there are a lot of folks in this game and so again i think what you saw this week in this flurry of announcements right is that you have the market leader that's basically captured 90 to 100 percent of the incremental demand for the biggest thing that the data center and the chip market has ever seen and every other player is looking at what they have to do to have a shot to capture part of this wave they're high risk high reward bets the other thing i would say is and again shut me up and anybody can jump in if they want to but i want to decompose we're hearing these estimates of a hundred gigawatts four to five trillion of build out over the course of the next four years if you look at that same chart i just showed you that's not what wall street estimates are right there is a lot of disbelief on wall street as to what's going to get built out so if you look at that estimate you know starting in 2027 it basically flatlines 27 through 29 for nvidia right less than 10 percent kegger in terms of the growth for nvidia they have by 2029 them doing 360 billion in revenue compared to 210 billion of revenue this year to put it in gigawatt perspectives that means going from four to five gigs per year in 25 to nine gigs in 29 that's a big step up but a long way from the 100

SPEAKER_88: gigawatts you were hearing you know bantered about on cnbc this week that's for a different reason

Chamath Palihapitiya: nick put this put this quote up there which is this famous quote from nathan rothchild where he said i care not that puppet is placed upon the throne of england to rule the empire on which the sun never sets the man who controls britain's money supply controls the british empire and i control the british money supply why is that quote so interesting as applied to ai i think that what you're going to see and you're seeing it in those revenue graphs is that there is a traffic jam that's happening in growth where it won't be the ability to actually build next-gen silicon but it'll be the energy inputs that will constrain it and it will be the ingredient inputs that constrain growth and so the companies that then control those elements of the supply chain will actually come into power and rise to power so what is one example of this one example of this is when you look at the architecture of nvidia's chips one of the things that they have made a huge bet on is hbm and this is a memory structure and what's so interesting about that is when you look at the hbm market it is effectively nvidia who takes up the majority the majority majority and then google and now amd's next architecture actually needs to sit on top of hbm now they're going to have to go and step into that supply chain and try to ask for share where will that share come from and this is where the people that then control that supply sk hynix and samsung will have leverage now this is what's interesting about a deal that open ai announced two or three weeks ago sam was in korea and you saw him shaking hands with sk hynix and samsung and my initial thought then was why is open ai doing a deal with the memory maker and then it occurred to me wow he's buying forward capacity on hbm because now he can allocate that share so when i saw that deal and i saw that equity it reminded me of this rothschild quote sam has allocation and now sam can allocate allocation and then as a result get a tax and i believe that the warrants and the equity are effectively that what's a different example brad mentioned this before but energy will be the gating item beyond a shadow of a doubt and so if you control electrons any form of electrons hydrocarbon to electron electron to electron photon to electron doesn't matter you will then be in a position to start asking for equity upside participation in these companies in a way that you could never do before you would just have been a linear member of the supply chain a low margin participant so when i look at where we are i think that the really interesting question now is to ask what is the second and third order degree inputs that are critical to allowing the big foundational model makers to allowing nvidia to allowing amd broadcom to thrive and that is where i would start to look because those that control those resources are going to dictate the pace and

SPEAKER_197: the scale of this ai expansion okay coming around the horn here to you our czar of ai david sacks

SPEAKER_00: when you see this massive amount of deal making occurring it's got to warm your heart a bit american exceptionalism at work here people swinging for the fences what's your take on brad and chamat's

SPEAKER_02: overview of where we're at here in the fall of 2025 in the ai race yeah i don't really like to take

SPEAKER_17: sides on these deals for the obvious reason that we want to be supportive of everybody and just have a healthy environment for competition so as long as there's investment going on and as long as there's a lot of competition those are good things that's what we want to see so i tend to think this open ai amd deal is evidence of that there was the open ai nvidia deal there was the nvidia xai deal there's just a ton of investment going on and that's what we want to see so that's all really good news i was struck by brad's chart about nvidia's revenue in the out years the amount of capex or

David Sacks: investments going to go into data centers and compute more than a few years from now i think that's really hard to predict impossible right yeah very hard because on the demand side of the compute it's going to depend on new applications that get created so for example the demand for tokens depends not just on ai chat bots but on the new agents that are coming along you have these new video generation models sora now xai has just released something so we don't really know what the demand for tokens is going to be i think it's going to be huge i think there's a lot of applications that haven't even been invented yet we are in the very early stages are going to drive demand it's a little bit like in the early days of the internet we had this dot-com bubble where everyone thought there had been too much fiber built out and then all the fiber ended up being used because you know social networking came along facebook came along youtube came along when all that original fiber in the 90s was built out they didn't even know that photos and videos were going to be a thing so the bandwidth eventually all got used up i think in a similar way all of the compute will eventually get used up by new applications i guess the thing we don't know is how much more efficient will the

SPEAKER_17: infrastructure get at producing these tokens so that would be the offsetting factor is yes the chips are getting so much better i mean we're moving faster than moore's law here every year nvidia is releasing a new generation of chips and it's doing inference at multiple times the efficiency of the previous year on i guess a token per watt basis or whatever you want to measure it so that's an offsetting factor and then there could be more efficiencies created in the model architectures with sparser architecture so those will be offsetting factors as all the efficiencies we get but then you have to you know if i'm kind of arguing with myself then you've got the jevons paradox which is as the cost per token comes down more and more that's going to enable ai to use in more and more contexts where previously it

David Sacks: wasn't economically efficient now it will be so that's going to fuel the demand i mean david yeah

SPEAKER_34: david this is just a huge boom yeah yeah your point is a your point is a great one everybody's looking for the bubble right we've got this pattern recognition everybody's like what it's dark fiber it's got to be dark fiber there's no way that you can 10x your revenues at nvidia without it being you know a bubble but the reality today is nvidia trades at a lower price to earnings multiple than it did when it was 200 a share think about what the term dark fiber means we were laying fiber in the ground that remained dark we did not have the demand for the fiber there is not a dark gpu in the

SPEAKER_116: world today the question there's not going to be a dark gpu in the world next year there's no dark

Chamath Palihapitiya: i don't think that's the question i think the question is what is the roi on input and output tokens per use case what is the roi of a random use of a model and i think that that is a very good question how many of those tokens are generally gross margin negative how many of those are unprofitable how many of those are profitable and i think that's what they're trying to ask when they ask that

SPEAKER_116: question they may just not know the technical intricacies to ask it that way but i think that's what people are trying to debate when they're trying to guess and i don't think we totally yet know and

SPEAKER_22: just two things i wanted to add here there are other solutions which have not yet hit the ground i mentioned bit tensor i think it's an open source project that's worth looking into i started a little fund of my own with my own capital to start exploring this because there are going to be other

SPEAKER_78: solutions that come to fill all of this jevin's paradox that's happening chamak your thoughts

SPEAKER_66: well i think the thing to remember is token generation is this very complicated quadratic that just consumes a ton of power yeah and there really is no way to ignore the fact that even with

Chamath Palihapitiya: more complicated capabilities the models are becoming much more complicated these context windows are getting longer or bigger and so i just think that we are in this massive massive capital race and unfortunately i think what that will create is the need for all of these other things like for example there may be architectures where you just have to use sram because you can't get hbm i don't think we know what that does to a whole bunch of these use cases today because it may just be completely unperformant separately i think meta was the one that published this there's a big disconnect right now in the market around the failure rates of certain classes of hardware and not at the chip level because at the chip level these things are really performant but at the server rack system level these things are you know failing nine to twenty percent of the time that's very complicated how do you deal with all of that and how do you deal with these cascading failures all these things because we are pushing the boundaries of physics we're at you know two and three nanometer scale yields are good not great all of these things i think have to get worked out and that's what makes it such a great opportunity so

SPEAKER_00: exciting i think brad let's talk about the tam i've been working a bit on what is the tam of this and in the modern developed world what we used to call the first world you got about 500 million business users they spend on average brad about three thousand dollars on sas products so if you were to just put

SPEAKER_78: those numbers together it gets pretty large pretty quick trillions of dollars in revenue for those

SPEAKER_54: users and if you look at consumers and just use an analogy maybe brad i think that i'm interested if you think this is a valid one consumers pay for you know netflix and disney plus whatever it is probably a couple hundred dollars a year so then you have a billion users in the developed world i'm not

SPEAKER_22: counting frontier markets and the developing world we're talking about a tam that's going to be a

SPEAKER_24: couple of trillion dollars a year i think you would agree so the build out of a trillion dollars doesn't seem as farcical if that is in fact the prize and i think i've set the tam very well it's not it's not

Chamath Palihapitiya: a trillion that's just the capex then you have to think of what the opex is the opex is probably the same multiplied by the useful life which is probably 20 years so if you think there's a billion of capex going in you have to expect that there's a trillion sorry a trillion of capex going and there's tens of trillions of opex over the useful life of all of this stuff upgrade cycles people power water so it's a much bigger spend than we think so we have to be careful that we're not

SPEAKER_144: underestimating frankly absolutely and then there's what the life of these are right brad like what is the useful like core we've thinks these things last four years but they underwrite to six they

SPEAKER_220: android to six they're at six other people are saying four so that seems a little challenged too

SPEAKER_17: here's a rule of thumb is that each gigawatt data center is about 50 billion dollars of investment

David Sacks: roughly between the chips the land power shell it's about 50 billion per gigawatt and you have you know open ai i think that's right lawn they're talking about scaling to 10 gigawatt data centers that's a 500 billion dollar investment i think that's right per data center if it gets that big i mean to be clear they're still working on the one gigawatt data centers but from there they're going to go to two or three gigawatts next year and then from there probably to five over the next couple of years so you could get to a 10 gigawatt in i don't know probably five years something like that brad's kind of convinced me that we should all be taking the over on this as he usually does welcome home brad we appreciate you when i think about nvidia's market i think the big question to me is i so i would bet the over on demand because i think that it's very hard to underwrite demand for applications that don't exist yet but i'm confident they will be there the thing i don't know about their business is whether the gpu market bifurcates between training and inference i think everyone understands that nvidia has by far the best training chips but there's a lot of competitors including chamath your company grok and there's cerebrus and obviously amd wants to compete and then obviously huawei is is kind of a wild card there we can talk about that and then obviously i should mention all the the asics that the big i companies yeah so yeah using broadcom ip you've got the google tpus and you know brad you mentioned tranium which is amazon's chip and i think open ai wants to develop their own chip so i think the question is given that inference will be 99 of the market and training is only one percent could nvidia be in a situation where they've got training locked up but when it comes to inference there's just a lot of other alternatives because people have developed cheaper inference chips i'm not saying that's going to happen to me that would be the big question well

SPEAKER_32: i mean listen you know you know i think first i go back to the point you made we're at this critical

SPEAKER_85: juncture in a global ai race and we should all be celebrating the fact that there is this level of investment going on in the united states this is the definition of creative destruction it won't

SPEAKER_34: all work but the risk capital the entrepreneurial boldness of sam and nvidia and lisa this is what's going to keep us ahead in the global ai race none of this would be happening if washington had not unlocked power jensen said this on on my podcast or our podcast last week you know on this we've unlocked power we've unlocked capital people are now able to underwrite to these deals so first i just think that this is incredible we have this level of competition in terms of nvidia's ability to stay ahead um of everybody else listen i think at the end of the day it's power in and it's tokens out it's perf per watt if i've talked to many cfos of hyperscalers and they said you could price the competitor chips at zero jensen said this publicly many times price the competitor chips at zero and it's still more effective and uh economic decision to choose nvidia and i think that's what it comes down to they have to be at perf per watt because power is the constrained resource

SPEAKER_78: going back to what jama said okay i want you to just give me a number brad the total tam

David Friedberg: of this in five years what's the in the modern world what's the spend going to be just think about

SPEAKER_85: that i think i think jason i think you made a great point about about total tam we see about a

SPEAKER_34: hundred billion dollars already in incremental generative ai revenue in 2026 that has to grow to well over a trillion by 2030 if you look at it on a top downs basis 125 trillion dollar global gdp if you get a 10 improvement in productivity that's 12 trillion a year of productivity improvements if you get a five percent that's five or six trillion that's what's leading masa and sam and others to place

SPEAKER_78: these these heroic bets okay great we just have to lightning round this here is the round-tripping discussion that people are obsessed with nvidia at the center of this a 4.5 trillion dollar company largest company in the world and as you can see here between xai opening eye making language models amd uh intel core weave standing up data centers you know and so many other companies oracles obviously in the mix with their cloud google with their cloud gemini uh they have their own chips

SPEAKER_14: as well what do we take away from what we all saw chamath and i up close and personal with aol and and their partnerships and i guess i'll start with you here chamath is this analogous to the round

SPEAKER_22: tripping we saw on the dot-com era are these conflicted party transactions concerning to you

SPEAKER_39: at any level is cnbc and everybody hand-wringing about this over their skis or is it a legitimate

Chamath Palihapitiya: concern i'm not sure that they're framing the concern properly there are a lot of industries where these things are standard practice and well accepted one example that was explained to me this week was how the auto oems dealt with car dealers their car dealer networks where you would give what's called a floor loan where if you're trying to sell a ford f-150 you give your dealership a loan they then buy the car it pulls forward the revenue for ford then the dealer goes and sells the car to you and you know they take the arb and they pay the financing cost so this kind of stuff has been well established for a long time so i think what i would rather ask is where is the pcao b expert that says this is not good i just think that these are too complicated for me to understand they get into the vagaries of accounting law but i suspect that these companies are well advised and i think that there are other industries that have been doing it for many years and i think that if there was a real issue

SPEAKER_231: it would have been exposed much sooner quite honestly so you said pc aob public company accounting

Chamath Palihapitiya: oversight board yeah yeah i mean i just think there's there's just and by the way there's all the quarterly regulatory filings that are required all the sarbox compliance that's required the umpteen numbers of auditors that are looking at these things i think it does come down to the fact that there are many industries that use this forward flow agreements if you want to call it factoring flowing agreements if you want to call it that and i just think that it's newer in our industry but

SPEAKER_74: it's important to acknowledge that it's very well established in many other legacy industries and

SPEAKER_106: there's a lot of it all of a sudden so i guess brad the uniqueness to our industry is one piece

SPEAKER_22: or i'll give it to you sex the the uniqueness to our industry is one piece and the number of these is just making people's heads spin a little bit and makes their mind wander but conflicted party

SPEAKER_54: transactions have to be very well documented you know in sec filings etc and these are largely public

SPEAKER_17: companies but go ahead sex well look these companies all have lots of very expensive lawyers and accountants so i'm sure that from a you know gap standpoint or security standpoint or compliance standpoint what they're doing is fine now when people talk about round tripping if you want to talk about the the spirit of it the underlying concept behind it i think what it comes down to

David Sacks: is that nvidia is effectively extending credit to its buyers why do they need credit because this build out is so capital intensive i mean every model is quadratic it gets worse they're all running around the world looking for capital there's a photo of sam the other day i forgot what country he was in might have been uae or saudi or something in any event they're all looking for as much capital as they can get to fund this build out and in certain cases obviously nvidia is extending effectively credit in exchange for equity or whatever it may be and i think the question you have to ask is simply are these companies that are on the receiving end of this credit effectively credit worthy in other words will this investment yield economically viable results right because if let's say nvidia extends credit to open ai and then open ai then buys chips from nvidia nvidia recognizes that as revenue the question is is there economic substance to that or is it basically a shell transaction and my my view on it is that there is substance to the transaction because there is downstream demand for ai and the applications that are eventually going to get built and for the apis that are being put out there for basically the tokens that are being generated i mean brad will have the exact numbers but i think open ai's revenue ramp rate is it's something like 5 billion to 25 billion to 100 billion brad what you

SPEAKER_228: can you tell us the years on that i mean well i don't want to get over my just skis about what's been

SPEAKER_34: disclosed but i think no i thought that's out there is that yeah yeah they'll they'll exit this year at over 20 billion run rate i think there are a lot of people who think they could hit uh 50 next year and 100 after that so this again gets back to your point david there's no dark gpus in the world today the tokens are being consumed every consumer in the world wants answers they don't want to use 10 blue links every enterprise wants to deploy this to make their enterprise better national sovereigns want to do this in order to advance their military and other other things i want to come back to this very point we should be on the lookout for sham transactions when you have moments of excitement like this they of course will lead to somebody on the edge doing stuff that is a sham what's a sham there's no economic substance there's no end buyer for your product so i call up sax i say sax i've got a bunch of inventory nobody wants to buy it i'm going to wire you a billion dollars buy a billion dollars of my product i'll post it to revenue and we're good to go it doesn't cost him anything and i get to book a billion in revenue clearly a sham clearly illegal not at all what's occurring in the case with nvidia just put it in perspective 25 through 27 nvidia will generate 450 billion dollars half a trillion dollars of cash flow what they're investing is mice nuts they are making equity investments in companies that are mice nuts it's not credit to these companies the companies don't in the case of open ai they don't even have to use nvidia chips they just told the world they were going to buy all this amd right they're rumored to be building their own chip so the point of the matter here is of course it lubricates the system by making these investments but they're tiny equity checks in these companies i think about it this way you know google capital is one of the biggest investors in duolingo duolingo is one of the biggest advertisers on google nobody's crying foul that google somehow round tripping revenue back into uh you know google advertising right so long as there is in demand for the product and it's not a sham i think these things are fine all right i think we'll

SPEAKER_54: leave it there there's going to be a lot more news on this but people love the picture of the plug

SPEAKER_250: plugging itself into its butt or the uh or there's another one of a power strip plugged into the power strip can you find the plug plug the elephant elephant yeah that there it is that's what we're

SPEAKER_252: talking about yes i somehow i don't think the on-off switch is going to make a difference here by the

Chamath Palihapitiya: way when i whenever i see this i think is it dangerous to do that and then i remember no there's

SPEAKER_254: actually no electricity occurring no i think you're good but it i always think that it is anyways i mean

SPEAKER_78: well i think the concern we'll have is if there's a down draft and right now they're saying hey 10

SPEAKER_54: to 30 percent of a correction the next year is uh you know what people are buzzing about and i guess it's always some percentage of a correction if there's a correction some stocks go down the tide goes

SPEAKER_78: out then we figure out who has a sustainable business and who's wearing shorts and who's not and that's what happened exactly in the dot-com bubble the tide went out amazon had enough revenue to

SPEAKER_22: continue other people did and some people maybe they were caught with no shorts in the ocean whenever

SPEAKER_17: you have a boom like this there's obviously going to be winners and losers and there's going to be a lot of losers but the the question is whether the winners will pay off the the losers that's what venture capital requires but i just think it's amazing how much of a boom is going on and i think

David Sacks: brad's made the argument that it hasn't even peaked yet 40 of us gdp growth this year is ai and ai companies have accounted for 80 of the gain in u.s stocks this year i know a lot of people are wringing their hands and pointing to this as like evidence that somehow we're we're in a bubble but to me it's a wonderful thing that the us is on the forefront of building out this technological revolution and building out all this infrastructure and i think it's ultimately going to pay huge dividends yeah and we just need to not screw it up yeah and there's just so many people who i mean to be honest just want to screw this up with excessive regulation at the state level excessive regulation at the federal level they want the bureaucracies in washington to manage and improve everything if we go down that path we could sabotage this if we just allow it to happen if we allow the innovators to do what they do best i think this is going to drive four or five percent gdp growth for the next few years it'll be a really wonderful thing i mean it's a great place to wrap

SPEAKER_00: and if only we had somebody who had decades of experience and had a really logical bent to them about free markets who could advise our president we would be in great shape oh wait that's huge

SPEAKER_78: sacks good job all right everybody gold rally is off the charts shout out to our friend vinnie lingham who

SPEAKER_22: told us about this for the last year or two jeez it just broke 4 000 for the first time ever this week up over 50 percent for the year gold's outpacing bitcoin which is up 30 percent itself and all the other major indices nasdaq's up 19 in the same time period s p 14 down 9 silver is surging even more than gold there might be some utilization reasons for that silver gets used in a lot of different components whereas gold very rarely does at the same time the u.s dollar down eight percent year to

SPEAKER_54: date here's a chart from our friends over at visual capitalist about gold versus u.s treasury something

SPEAKER_175: we talked about here uh u.s treasuries chamath you want to take this and then we'll go to brad

SPEAKER_05: what are we seeing here with gold or is this like a safety trade is this an anti-usd trade what what what's behind this too much money supply what's happening no this is just people confusing correlation

SPEAKER_66: and causation and making stuff up to look smart why is gold up gold is up because there are many more

Chamath Palihapitiya: net new buyers who is the most important net new buyer it's tether tether has been issuing a stable coin called tether gold where they'll actually custody the gold on your behalf and it's the amount and volumes of it are rising at the same time central banks are rebalancing and then yet at the same time you have a lot of macro funds that have essentially decided that central banks aren't to be trusted and they don't know what to do and so they're not necessarily long bonds they're not necessarily long currencies and so they're long gold so i think it's a mixture of things there's no panacea explanation but if you had to put it into a couple buckets it's net new speculation net new

SPEAKER_39: stable coin related issuance and a loss of confidence in central bank policy around the world

SPEAKER_78: and this is uh in some ways a good backstop brad for governments maybe to stop spending

SPEAKER_00: and maybe a little austerity you called austerity in the tech industry in 2021 thanks for that i bought a bunch of stocks i went on on facebook and a bunch of other ones uh when you were talking about

SPEAKER_175: this so also china seems to be flipping into gold too i've been reading about that so what's your take

SPEAKER_32: brad yeah i mean listen there's one there's one camp that says this is all because the world's falling apart and we're all panicked about global governments balance sheets i think that's part of

SPEAKER_85: it but i think chamath nailed it right you got a total change in the new demand picture for gold right as evidenced by we you know we have a bitcoin of gold btc you know bitcoin but we also have it in

SPEAKER_34: the form of tether right you're now going to allow people to have exposure to the actual underlying gold by buying a crypto asset so you have new demand for it you do have people concerned about the state of the world but it's always been a speculative asset plus a store of value right and i've got a couple charts here you can throw them up if you want one is simply looking at the correlation with the s p 500 over the last 10 years and the other one's looking at it with u.s debt and i i it's probably chart crime i'll go back to what chamas said i can make up any story i want to make it tracks the the growth in u.s

SPEAKER_85: debt it tracks the growth in risk assets in the s p 500 the fact of the matter is it's a combination of all of these things and hats off to the people who are up 50 this year on gold all right so that's

SPEAKER_17: simple sax anything you wanted there is one other big factor i mean maybe chamath mentioned this but china's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months they added 40 000 ounces in september alone as of the end of september china's gold reserves totaled 74 million ounces valued at 283 billion so they've been gradually substituting away from u.s dollars u.s treasuries towards gold and i you know some of this is geopolitical china is our chief competitor in the world they probably don't want to be dependent on the dollar in u.s treasury so they're diversifying away also you can't forget that this trend really started during the biden administration with the ukraine war because the biden administration used the u.s dollar as basically a geopolitical weapon they cut off access to swift they froze russian assets in the banking system and so a lot of countries look to that and go oh geez you know if i am totally reliant on the u.s dollar complex then i can be on the receiving end of u.s foreign policy that i don't like and so it was i think pretty natural that the brics countries would look at that and start to develop alternatives and just by the

David Sacks: way when the bricks talk about this currency that they're going to develop they're not talking about a man on the street type of currency the best guess about what they're going to do is it'll be some

SPEAKER_17: sort of gold backed certificates where they can settle up huge international trade flows using

David Sacks: gold certificates so that might be part of what's driving this as well that's a very long-term project by the brics countries i don't think we're going to see anything in the next few years and

SPEAKER_78: that's uh sacks their way of sending a message to the u.s hey don't use usd to yank our chain yeah is

SPEAKER_17: it your interpretation well i don't know if they're trying to send the message or they just don't want to take that risk right they understand that if they're part of the u.s dollar complex and they can be affected by things like cutting off swift by sanction by banking sanctions their assets in theory could be seized and so forth and so on so obviously they're going to try and reduce the

SPEAKER_00: the possibility of that externality yeah makes total sense all right let's wrap on polymarket my guy shane friend of the pod announced that the new york stock exchange parent company ice a different ice intercontinental exchange had invested 2 billion at a 9 billion dollar post or somewhere in that range they will now distribute polymarket stated at thousands of financial institutions globally and

SPEAKER_22: it looks like polymarket will be launched in the u.s imminently there's actually a polymarket for polymarket being available uh in the u.s for trades polymarket was only founded in 2020 they were valued at 350 million last year before the election and uh 1.2 billion earlier this year founders fund made a nice investment and it turned out to be a pretty great trade 98 chance now that polymarket will go live

SPEAKER_54: in the u.s in 2025 i think that's found money right there i mean i need to place a bet there

SPEAKER_24: chamath your thoughts on this new category and why it's so important for it to exist

SPEAKER_143: i talked to jeff sprecher the day he did the investment just to congratulate him one of the

Chamath Palihapitiya: things that he said which i think is true everything is becoming a market and you're going to see this convergence where eventually you'll have sports that look like markets you'll have knowledge that becomes a market and then you'll ultimately have equities and debt instruments also behave this way meaning they'll be tokenized they'll be very fungible you can just take a long or short position on almost anything and so i think you're going to see this convergence what does it mean i don't know but it puts a lot of really interesting assets under the microscope if you built like a high frequency trading organization what does it mean when all of a sudden some crypto pool shows up and it can do hft much faster than you and basically chops the cost to zero because you don't have an infrastructure and a corporate org what is it going to mean to the betting sites like fanduel and draftkings where now a bunch of these trades can happen here as well so i think what shane is leading the charge on is democratizing this and financializing all this infrastructure to run extremely liquidly via tokens effectively on chains and i think that that is a huge deal broadly speaking

SPEAKER_106: yeah i'm loving this for the oscars and i was just thinking wow if you're a movie

SPEAKER_00: studio and you're releasing a film and you if these markets become big enough you could hedge your bet on your own film i mean this could have profound impacts on every industry yeah brad how do you

SPEAKER_32: think about it as somebody who trades i just love the fact we now professionalize the wisdom of the crowds i mean we've known for 150 years that crowds are smarter than experts and all these people

SPEAKER_85: hanging out in ivory towers controlling the conversation now the those emperors have no clothes right the reality is i think it was this guy francis galton who coined the phrase 1907 he got a group of 800 farmers together they had to guess the weight of an ox and then he had five experts and guess what the crowd got a got a lot closer than the experts to the weight of the ox and here we are 150 years later and you're going to have you know very very big companies right that are now taking it to the next level creating liquidity and when people put money on something the crowd gets even smarter so uh it's a you know kudos to you guys you really your partnership with them you've taken them to a higher level and uh it's awesome to see it's just a great um great lesson for

SPEAKER_54: entrepreneurs there was a website in trade i don't know if you guys remember that from like the

SPEAKER_00: early 2000s into like the 2010 that was doing this they had regulatory issues but the idea was out there and people just didn't go all in on it so to speak and here we are shane has crushed it another

SPEAKER_78: amazing respectful fascinating insightful episode of your podcast welcome home fifth bestie brad gerstner

SPEAKER_286: go check out his other pod bg2 great to have brad back in the mix it's great to be chopping it up with

SPEAKER_288: you we have to get brad and friedberg on the same pod oh yeah let's do it what do people prefer a

SPEAKER_293: science corner or a market corner tell us in the comments tell us in the comments i will allocate my

SPEAKER_296: two votes i can tell you wow freeberg taking a straight he's not even here what he's not no you're just he's wondering out loud you're wondering i mean maybe there's an asteroid coming or we could talk about the markets and have great charts i don't know anything's possible on

SPEAKER_05: the world's number one podcast your favorite your podcaster's favorite podcast the all in pod

SPEAKER_106: we'll see you all very soon allin.com sign up for an email and get special uh information on what

SPEAKER_116: congratulations on all your success jason graduate much success we're talking about here congratulations

SPEAKER_96: on behalf of the trump administration congratulations oh thank you well i hope that your trump driven

SPEAKER_303: success congrats absolutely yes and uh trump two-point what else can we do for you well yeah i want to bring that up what other stocks what other stocks can we uh actually i do have one thing if you could

SPEAKER_66: talk about accreditation laws that would be a big one for me you'd like to loop into this conversation

SPEAKER_306: what other people would you like i call balls and strikes here it's a very important role here to

SPEAKER_116: have a steel man you know what i've noticed the man of steel is here also known as the steelman the people that constantly say they call balls and strikes are never the ones that call balls and

SPEAKER_308: strikes i got my eyes on your balls jermont don't listen to what they say just look at what they do exactly yeah welcome to texas come by the ranch anytime welcome to texas exactly i'm the great state

SPEAKER_10: of tech how's that ranch it's so great i carry i carry a pistol on my waist it's incredible this place is great you're welcome to quote jack nicholson and a few good men yeah you live under the security

David Sacks: blanket that we provide and then you question the manner in which we provide it absolutely that's

SPEAKER_78: called checks and balances uh to our amazing panel great job and uh to our silvo servant david sacks

SPEAKER_314: get back to work for the american you're doing a great job i love you boys

SPEAKER_331: bye