SPEAKER_00: hey everybody welcome to another episode of the all in podcast it's been a crazy uh couple of weeks here we had the all-in summit and boy was it amazing our bestie david freeberg couldn't make it today uh he had uh some personal things he had to attend to so joining us again is brad gerstner welcome back to the fifth bestie uh on his is this your fourth appearance now including the all-in summit i think you've been on four times now very good all right that's about five percent

SPEAKER_01: of the episodes a nice nice uh i think that's a nice little chip in your uh in your in your

SPEAKER_03: your belt there i mean unworthy replacement to friedberg but i do what i can do nobody can

SPEAKER_07: replace friedberg that is the truth just uh going around the horn here trim off did you have a a

David Friedberg: favorite moment on stage a favorite moment off stage well what is your general impressions of

SPEAKER_15: the all-in summit 2022 i thought the people i met were um really impressive i really enjoyed meeting

SPEAKER_17: people and learning what they did i also thought you and your team organized um really an incredible event and um i forgot how good you are at these things but um so i give you a lot of credit i really enjoyed participating the only thing that i was nervous about during that whole thing which probably limited a little bit of my fun was my mom was coming she's 81 and so i was not i was not super psyched to really be in the throes of all the parties to be honest just because i was like i didn't i didn't necessarily want to get covid and i didn't want to introduce it to her and got it yes you know nat ended up getting really really sick but more uh like a flu and a cold yeah um but you know i've been fine my mom's fine i know a bunch of folks that came out unfortunately tested positive so that was the only that's the only downside where i would i would have wanted to be a little bit more carefree but um that was the only thing that was

SPEAKER_24: but that's not in anybody's control so yeah hold on a second i i recall that when i had a christmas party back in december like a week later he called my christmas party a super spreader even though i tested everybody at the door every single person was negative at this except for the backdoor people yeah so so my parents went to this conference they both got coveted my aunt who lives in miami who was in her 70s she got coveted oh how are they doing are they okay by the way are they okay yeah they're most important it's you know it's omicron it was like you know it's like bad for two days and then you get better so they're gonna be fine thank god pax love it or no yeah one did and one didn't so um my brothers got coveted so your brothers got it which one josh or josh and jamie

SPEAKER_38: both got it and then josh's wife got it so she um took the pax love and everybody's great now but yeah

SPEAKER_00: if you go to my a lot of people who came to the event it was their first time out like this was for a lot of people i think very emotional and exciting because it was their first venture out and if you go to miami to a conference like you're gonna get you're gonna get covet especially if the event

SPEAKER_45: organizer doesn't test anybody it's impractical to test 850 people nobody would come like not if you

SPEAKER_00: want to make a profit right nah it wouldn't have actually been that expensive you could put that on the people they could just you know share their result but i think at this point you know even on the planes going out there nobody's wearing masks i don't know if you know well you guys are flying

SPEAKER_50: private but uh you know my flight out there it was all you know nobody's wearing masks anymore but

SPEAKER_24: anyway jcal i think everybody who went to the conference took the risk upon themselves of getting coveted and you know it's not the end of the world or anything they're all fine but i'm just pointing out the hypocrisy my hypocrisy yes exactly it's like you're like nancy pelosi or something where you're criticizing every time a republican gets covet it's their fault yes when you throw a super spreader and i think ais now stands for all in super spreader yeah it's not your fault it was well beyond

SPEAKER_58: your control it was the virus absolutely and in fact it was probably just florida it was just it was miami yes it's de santa's fault in fact i was going to bring it up that's how this stuff works

SPEAKER_61: both of you now have thrown super spreader events yes but in mine i tested yeah it's not even

SPEAKER_00: proven that mine was a super spreader all right in all seriousness did you have a favorite moment on stage or some reflections on the event uh i thought the elon thing was really good by the way

SPEAKER_17: and the only thing i'll say is the the palmer lucky thing was pretty incredible um yeah which will be we will be releasing the palmer i'm excited i'm excited to see that i think that that episode is uh

SPEAKER_70: eye-opening yeah we don't want to say too much but i think that you were uh really i think you handled

SPEAKER_75: yourself really well there oh thank you for that chamath what actually happened i wasn't there for

SPEAKER_77: that portion i haven't heard anything we give a mini summary here of it i guess i'll give you the

SPEAKER_17: outside inversion he gives what i can only describe as an incredibly motivating breakdown of american defense and what his company now you know you have to remember to put it in context this is a 29 year old young man who has now started two multi-billion dollar unicorns so you know this he's going to be around for a long time doing amazing things but he talks about anduril which is his defense company really impressive and then the whole you know everybody's kind of like rousing and cheering and applauding and then he said you know i have something else that i want to get off my chest and i was standing beside jason backstage jason was looking at the monitor i was looking at the mirror at myself but uh and checking your sweater uh and uh he said uh you know there's a person here that that has been you know really hard on me you know tried to ruin my life attack my family and represents you know these really this strain of very influential people in silicon valley who have gotten it totally wrong basically and he called out cancel culture and then he called out

SPEAKER_85: jacal and to jacal's credit after he was done jacal was the first one that walked out on stage shook palmer's hand and then we all sat down we talked to him and then the two ended up hugging

SPEAKER_17: it out at the end but there were moments that were very heated in the middle of it um the whole thing was incredible to watch i gotta be honest with you it was super dramatic yeah incredible i would

SPEAKER_24: i would say the the most shocking and surprising aspect of the whole thing was that a person as

SPEAKER_58: important as palmer lucky felt the need to get revenge on a person as unimportant as jason

SPEAKER_92: that was the part i mentioned when he's like my career was when he said important people in silicon valley i i initially thought oh my god he's talking about me what did i say

SPEAKER_95: i was i was thrown by that too if i'm being honest he's like my entire career was stopped in its

SPEAKER_96: tracks and i had to claw my way back because jason calacana said this and i was like um no

SPEAKER_100: actually no i'm looking forward to when you're gonna be a great episode it's gonna be coming

SPEAKER_24: out next week thank you to all the speakers yeah and i want to give a shout out to um glenn greenwald matt taibi and antonio garcia martinez for appearing and you know we did two different panels we did one on domestic politics with uh glenn and uh taibi and then the we did a debate on ukraine which has now been published between glenn and antonio and particularly i want to thank antonio because it did end up being a little bit of a two-on-one at the end which wasn't my intention but i have my own views on it too although i did try to be somewhat restrained and um even-handed in the moderation but it's a really good debate we should have had longer we only had about 30 minutes um but uh you

SPEAKER_17: can see that online right now it actually is a great uh example of actually how to listen to somebody else having a completely diametrically opposed view and still be respectful i thought

SPEAKER_00: those guys were great to listen to i think it's a new format sax and i think you know somebody was like hey maybe you and jcal could do it i think you and i moderating like two people with different sides it could be like a really interesting format for us for future events brad did you have a a favorite moment on stage maybe outside of elon of course you can

SPEAKER_109: mention i would say you know maybe both on stage and off stage you know i think listen i think this

SPEAKER_111: podcast has taken some shots and probably appropriately so at times for being a bunch of men in a little bro culture and the effort made to build authentic community and diversity into that room i've been to a lot of conferences whether it's claire thielke you know patty wexler extraordinary you know minds women all diverse cultures economic backgrounds when we walked around the floor he you know indiana kentucky west virginia everywhere right and who were starting companies having authentic conversations and frankly were grateful for the community and the advice that they were being given these were

SPEAKER_112: from big startups to very small startups and so for me that was a a highlight the effort you made i don't know almost 40 percent women you know both economic i thought as well as you know geographic uh diversity and then you know listen i had a moment after bill and i after girly and i got off stage um i was stopped by a group of founders and they said hey we need your help i said what and they said we are that company you and bill were just talking about and said was screwed we raised a hundred million dollars last november from from tiger at a hundred times arr what do we do right and like like the fact that that you know that those conversations are going on of course they're not screwed and it's a very interesting company but it led to a real conversation that you don't often have um at conferences like that and so i thought it was much more than just a bunch of talking heads on stage i thought it was a real give and take in the you know uh in the crowd afterwards the parties

SPEAKER_15: the in-betweens and so i really enjoyed that the other big um thing that we avoided um failing on was

SPEAKER_61: uh putting back the amas i think these amas are some of the most interesting parts of that conference and i think that we should make sure that we probably do an ama jason like both days if we

SPEAKER_38: do a two-day conference the amas were awesome yeah when the audience is asking us and and just to explain to people how we were able to um you know curate the audience we asked people i think it's a good playbook for other people if they want to steal it to uh they could they could pick the price they wanted to pay based on their station in life and so people said i want to come i'll pay 500 i'll pay a thousand i'll pay 2500 instead of the 7500 ticket price which was like 300 people in the

SPEAKER_00: audience and we just said hey what do you love about the show you know what would coming to the conference mean to you and we kind of just sorted that and we looked for people who are passionate about the show and then you know the the thing that stuck out to me and i know friedberg uh had a great time as well was the passion of uh the audience and how much they appreciate what we do here every week and so the love that we got people asking to take selfies people telling us what the show meant to us you know and people coming from all different uh stations in life really it made it not elitist but it felt like the people who were there were all builders and that was really an

SPEAKER_01: interesting part what i instructed the team to do was anybody who was like a real estate broker a money manager a sales executive a business development person i said let's not have them there no offense to those you know critical functions but a lot of people will come to these events to sell and get customers but i said anybody who's a builder an artist they're making something in the world let's give them the priority for these the scholarship tickets so you know when you met people they were all building something interesting in the world and and no press i think also created a certain vibe there we didn't have the media there criticizing every panel and you know every speaker and so it it i think it just yeah made it somewhat natural well i think it really couldn't do it without all

SPEAKER_124: you guys uh and freeberg and the besties and brad you were helping behind the scenes so couldn't do without everybody and my team you know great job turned out surprisingly well i thought

SPEAKER_24: i thought the whole thing was a jcal grift and it actually turned out well there's been there was there's some grifting going on for sure we still haven't seen an accounting of exactly where all the

SPEAKER_128: money went so it's it's close we'll have that accounting any day now sacks any day now what could you have done better what would you change for the next time um you know i it's a great question you

SPEAKER_00: know we we always do a document with lessons learned right after the event so i went through my team and i had 26 people from my team uh 21 from launch and i think five from insight came and uh you know helped staff the event a little more time to to work on the speakers in the agenda um if we had a little more time i would have teased out of each bestie you know maybe five or ten speakers or topics they wanted and worked backwards so just a little more time to to to experiment with the format but i took an experimental approach to it we did have people who did solo dolo like ted style talks we then had people come on stage uh with the besties and do discussions but having all besties on stage all the time is a little hard for for everybody i

SPEAKER_01: know david likes to focus on maybe a couple of things other people like chamath and i like to be on stage for everything i think um but the format was experimental and there was a couple of great

SPEAKER_00: moments i think when we overlapped folks so i think nate silver overlap with keith reboy uh you and bill gurley together tim robert i'm sorry overlapped with keith reboy um those were magical moments i think and so i have a um something in my brain about weaving individual talks and data points with the besties and then having the next speaker on the stage the next speaker and i would have liked to

SPEAKER_133: have more time to refine that format i think okay my only question is was the palmer lucky deal was that a plant did you plan that no did you secretly put that in there i'll tell you the back story is

SPEAKER_00: i you know i i had invited him on this week at startups before all in came out many times he said fuck you basically in so many words i hate jacal and then when all in came out he's a fan of this show um i think he's particularly a fan of david sax's and i think david knows a lot of the investors the investor pools i think overlap uh in a lot of different circles of ours and um i said would you like to come to the summit and i and i basically said to him heartfelt like listen i think the work you're doing to protect the country most people in silicon valley don't believe in building weapon systems but i kind of am with you on this so we probably have some common ground here i think the mission of what you're doing is more important than our disagreement from you know the hillary clinton versus trump days maybe we could just you know put that aside and have you speak and surprisingly as people were like yes i didn't know they were doing yes because he had a plot to dunk on me but who cares you know like i don't mind being dunked on if i'm wrong about something or i'm right it's the whole spirit of this show is to you know to learn and grow and have great conversations so with that maybe we start the show now let's do it all right let's go let me am i

SPEAKER_01: am i still allowed to do intros or is it too triggering because i do have interest for this week

SPEAKER_141: do it say do it okay i got thumbs only if they're nice well you know that's the caveat that i cannot

SPEAKER_96: guarantee but anyway here we go getting ready to gallivant across the italian countryside he spent

SPEAKER_95: 40k at all in summit on food and wine he took 400 selfies in three hours those sweaters my lord they reek of power the dictator himself is back chamath palihapitiya welcome back to the show thank you jason all right his body looks like he doesn't eat cake he's got a major stake in snowflake you might have heard him earlier on the week with bill gurley he's the crossover fund manager with that bde our fifth bestie the audience hangs on every word he has to say the dark knight of namaste welcome back to the program brad gerstner i like it what's bde if you don't know then you don't know you can look that up urban dictionary he's about to turn 50 but he looks like he's 65 after 72 hours in miami

SPEAKER_147: we're not sure he's still alive the crib keeper is jealous of the facts under his eyes his portfolio has been down for 35 straight days no surprise the rayman himself is back david sacks too rough on sacks no it's okay is it okay i felt like i might have gone too rough on sacks all right i guess we start

SPEAKER_38: with markets and uh s p 500 down 15 year-to-day dow down 11 two stocks of note uh that did particularly well during covet uh zoom and snowflake reported their earnings this week and they beat expectations of

SPEAKER_00: course that uh gives them no reprieve uh market cap for uh zoom 31 billion they got almost 6 billion

SPEAKER_124: dollars in cash uh which was a prescient move to cash up i guess during the the boom times their stock jumped 18 percent after the earnings so great for them uh q1 revenue 2023 1 billion 12 percent year over year they got an 80 gross margin for that business pretty impressive 500 million adjusted

SPEAKER_38: free cash flow 7 000 employees they're at almost 500 000 per employee uh at this point and uh stock is still down 43 percent year to date but a little bump here so i i guess we might be bumping along the bottom soon and just to quickly uh recap snowflake and get your comments after that snowflake reported their quarterly earnings yesterday 41 billion market cap they got almost 4 billion in cash they were down slightly uh at the taping of this episode today and they're down 67 from the peak of

SPEAKER_41: 409 a share in november so they're not in the 85 plus club like coinbase and peloton uh but still they've lost two-thirds of their market cap 422 million in revenue 85 year-over-year beat their expectations uh and um gross margin 72 net retention 174 percent uh 70 percent growth within within their

SPEAKER_124: existing customers to david sax's point about why sas is so great they got 4 000 employees uh 6 300 total customers so uh i guess maybe starting with you brad since you're you're in this in the thick of it thoughts on uh i know you're major snowflake early supporter thoughts on what's happening in the market and maybe any indication uh from these two let's face it strong results uh in the bouncing along the bottom i think is how we'd all describe what's happening right now well i think listen what makes investing

SPEAKER_03: hard is sometimes you have to hold simultaneous truth right and the reality is there's a lot of

SPEAKER_111: cognitive dissonance when you see something down 30 40 50 percent but it may be still that fair value right we were talking about last october like make no mistake about it just take snowflake as an example the move from 400 to 200 was probably just what i would describe as normalization in a world

SPEAKER_112: where rates were going back to two and a half or three percent right the market last october had gone too high we discussed it on this pod we discussed it on cnbc and so i expected a return to what we call the five-year average as we discussed at the summit what's been surprising to me is the negative reflexivity that's kicked in as a result of the war in ukraine uncertainty about hyperinflation uncertainty about hyper rates and so now we're seeing software generally all risk assets growth assets trading now 30 40 50 percent below the five-year average right so i don't think it's helpful to say well none of that should have happened no the reality is normalization meant that all of this stuff was going to be down 20 to 50 percent because it was way overvalued last fall we gaslighted ourselves in many respects we didn't hedge it perfectly in many respects but that's you know that's what happens in late market cycles so the question is where are we today and for example like why is the nasdaq up 300 basis points today right this it feels like whiplash i come in one day and you know you have market caps up 10 one day down to 10 the next and so i think it's really important to help the people

SPEAKER_166: listening understand you know like what happened this week and what's going on it is been kind of a

SPEAKER_38: uh a a pretty mixed bag this week in fact of of things going down chamath what are you going to take on this of what we're seeing in the market this week specifically with precipitous drops and then

SPEAKER_17: you know the bouncing up again look we we still had some amount of rate uncertainty from the fed i think

SPEAKER_61: people weren't sure how aggressively they were going to hike but by early this week it was pretty clear there's going to be two 50 point hikes one in june and one in july and then effectively a pause because then the fed funds rate will be at around two percent and everything from there will probably be

Chamath Palihapitiya: path and data dependent okay that's effectively what they said now i think the the markets had actually already started to see that writing on the wall so if you go back to you know one of our favorite measures which is the 10 year break even it's effectively rolled over which meant that you know which means that from the highs in sort of late april it started to come down which says that you know they were thinking that you know the inflation was not going to be as bad in the back half of the year and then the second is that corporate credit which is really what matters in some ways to the fed because that's where they can intervene what is the spread above treasuries that a company can issue debt when it goes crazy and it goes up it means oh no the cost of capital is going up that's going to be hard for companies to raise money they may have to lay people off they may need to get into cost cutting mode right that's what goes through everybody's mind but that's also now about 35 and 40 days rolled over which means that the gap is started to shrink you know between the u.s treasury price and what you know decent corporates can can issue data so it looks like we are set up for potentially a decent little rally here the problem is is it a rally that is sustainable or is it a rally that's basically what we call a dead cat bounce or a bear market rally where you know you just get some one or two weeks of relief before the thing spears down again and we're not going to know although tomorrow on friday there's going to be a really important set of inflation data that gets released and i think everybody's going to be sweating these details so right now we're in a moment of pause and there is the potential if this data comes back as reasonably good which means prices are you know not escalating as much as we thought um inflation is not going to be as bad growth is going to be

SPEAKER_171: moderate that that gives a lot of ammo for the fed to kind of take their foot off the um off the gas

SPEAKER_38: here and if that case markets will go boom sacks um the interesting note i think is um what we talked about here everything was correcting except housing and we were wondering when this uh you know the

SPEAKER_00: increasing rates would hit mortgage rates mortgages way above five percent in the last two weeks i think it's come down a little bit but the mortgage rate basically doubled and then we finally saw it earlier in this week um uh what day was it was two days ago so we're taping this on thursday so i think on tuesday new home sales 591 000 they expected 749 and i think the last month before that was 763 is that uh indicative of the uh raising the rates and slowing down inflation has finally occurred and that went maybe we the fed maybe uh steered too much into the turn how do you interpret

SPEAKER_41: that mass it was a pretty massive miss in terms of home sales in the estimate well the costs of

David Sacks: buying a home are going way up because home loans are now more expensive so that's going to factor into

SPEAKER_24: all sorts of consumer purchases is anything that's financed can be more expensive um you're also seeing companies starting to slow down spending uh really starting to slam on the brakes we see in startup land startups are all slashing costs right now but that's eventually going to percolate up to big companies too you saw dara's memo basically when he got back from wall street remember he published that a couple weeks ago saying we need to sharpen our pencils cut everything uh what wall street is looking for now is free cash flow um so it seems to me like we're headed into a pretty serious downturn or recession here i mean i've been saying we're in a recession for months um the the the you know the tricky thing for the fed is that they don't have a lot of good options because we have a lot of recession indicators blinking red right now at the same time inflation is still high so they're kind of caught between a rock and a hard place i think what the fed should have done is in 2020 hindsight is back last summer we first got that shock cpi print remember it was like 5.1 seemed to come out of the blue because for years and years we've been talking about deflation nobody thought inflation was a problem all of a sudden we got that 5.1 print they were in total denial about it they just dismissed it saying that inflation was transitory and you know yellen said the same thing and so basically everyone just ignored the data for six months and what they should have done was stop qe right then and there they could have taken a little bit of time to think out you know a rate increase strategy but they were still basically engaging in qe for nine months after that you know first inflation warning and if they had stopped qe there then we wouldn't have had this asset bubble in the second half of last year that's when it inflated the most and we could have had more of a soft landing unfortunately now they let the they kept inflating and really until the end of q1 and they've yanked away the punch bowl so violently that i think the real economy is going to go into recession so that's where we are right now i mean i don't know what the what the right answer is now given that we're in this you know

SPEAKER_00: almost stagflationary position let's try and answer that brad what is if if we didn't act soon enough if you agree with uh sax's point pretty hard to disagree with um and we didn't take the medicine a little bit at a time um and now maybe we've overreacted or maybe it's going to get worse what is the right thing for us to be doing now because all these companies doing hiring freezes layoffs

SPEAKER_38: at the same time that the housing market tanks at the same time crypto tanks at the same time the

SPEAKER_00: stock market tanks this feels like a major shock to the system is it time to maybe reconsider some of these um no you know for the fed to reconsider or just slow and steady wins the race here what's the

SPEAKER_115: best option first we should erect statues to senator mansion for saving the republic by vetoing stimmy 2

SPEAKER_111: that would have been build devastating that would have been devastating so we'll revisit that listen the fed said two really important things this week they said number one our communications have been helpful

SPEAKER_112: in shifting market expectations what that means the fed is the air traffic control they said to the markets at the beginning of the year you're 90 degrees off runway heading get your ass back on runway heading it was a slap in the face to markets and it was a radical adjustment now you hear the fed in these little statements this week they said hey we're well positioned this year to assess the effects of policy firming in the back half so they're saying we're going to hit it with 50 50 and then we're going to take a look so now think of it as air traffic control you're two degrees to the left you're two degrees to the right they're steering us on runway heading i don't think the fed wants to do anything at this moment to lose credibility in the inflation fight we're going to get 50 we're going to get another another 50 but they're doing what they want to do which is keeping markets sufficiently tight right they wanted to take the crypto market down they wanted to take all the excessive risks in the stock market down right you're absolutely right the inventory of 350 000 homes spiked from four months to nine months right used car prices are rolling over the last three months all the things they needed to do they're doing right they need to stay the course however the hyperventilation this week by bill ackman on twitter that the fed needs to be doing radically more that somehow we need to be raising rates to six seven eight percent in order to to squash inflation to me seems highly misdirected and totally out of touch with the fact that on layoffs.fyi they've already announced 750 companies

SPEAKER_190: that are announcing layoffs right the market is getting the drill i i totally agree with this

SPEAKER_61: i think we're in a we're we're in a pretty reasonable place here the real the real question is now what do you need to take the market lower and this is more of a nuance but you know when you look at companies that are now quote unquote cheap right let's take an example like you um you know well we hear a lot about google or facebook right people will say my gosh this is cheap because if you run a screen on it it's like 10 11 12 times price to earnings well the price you know because you can look on the screen the real question is are the earnings right and um the thing that can take the market lower is if you actually think earnings are modeled incorrectly right so we saw this week as

SPEAKER_192: well snap i mean completely just blew themselves 46 down intraday yesterday i think i just want to

SPEAKER_61: say something about in one day they have the most incredible propensity to self immolate on earnings calls than any other company i've ever seen there's probably been three times no less than three times over the last four years where i don't know whether it's just poorly scripted or not well rehearsed or the people that are helping evan get ready for these things

Chamath Palihapitiya: but these are disastrous calls you know facebook's had a couple in its lifetime but snap consistently probably once every 18 months will do this anyways the thing just completely implodes the stock implodes by 48 or something and then it you know rolls over to companies like facebook and google who then are off eight or ten percent my point in telling you this story is that if you think facebook and google just as an example again are cheap at 10 times well you better hope that the earnings are right because if the earnings are actually wrong that's actually 27 times in 19 times you know i'm making these numbers up to give you the example because the earnings are fundamentally wrong so that's the risk now that's left in the market in my opinion that could take it much much lower is if that you know all of this slowdown really contracts spend and the earnings are actually not accurate the forecasted earnings will need to be revised over the next two or three quarters and that's where we will probably see the low if however growth is muted and the fed can as brad said it's a really good analogy now just course correct by degrees you know a degree here degree there

SPEAKER_61: we've probably consolidated the lows

SPEAKER_194: so uh said another way we look at a company like snap

SPEAKER_38: uh or google a lot of their um expected value has to do with people's ad spend we now see less homes being sold so maybe people in real estate stop spending less on ads they're a major advertising category maybe direct to consumer people are not buying because the supply chain issues this stuff is too expensive and we're not going to spend on ads and so all of this ad revenue that's some of the first

SPEAKER_00: to come out of people's budgets so you know even as great as snaps results actually look they were up 38 percent year over year uh they're generating over 100 million free cash flow the guide was

Chamath Palihapitiya: terrible because what they said was our e right our earnings right are not modeled accurately right and so that's the risk that you now have to take to every company you cannot look at a screen at yahoo finance or bloomberg look at a price to earnings ratio and say wow seven times that's so

SPEAKER_61: cheap it may not be seven you have to do your own work it could actually be much higher than that

SPEAKER_00: because the earnings may be at risk the earnings being at risk is this contagion that we talked about i don't know six maybe it's like we're going on almost a year now sax we talked about a contagion happening because we've all experienced it in the last two recessions to that the dot-com bust and the great recession so what are you seeing in terms of at companies this contagion risk are people canceling sas contracts on the margins obviously people are doing hiring freezes obviously people are laying people off are people going to start renegotiating uh salaries you know what what's the next couple of shoes to drop here sacks and that would signal to you a true bottom here like have you seen i thought maybe one would be if somebody offered somebody an investment with a two or three times liquidation preference have you seen one of those yet have you seen people say we're going to renegotiate salaries because that's when it was really dark right the last two times yeah

David Sacks: it's going to take time to get to to that point i mean where you start seeing structure and deal is

SPEAKER_24: in deals is when a founder is trying to preserve a valuation they got last year and that can't really be justified but they don't want to just take the down round so you try to preserve the optics the last round by building all these preferential terms we don't like to do deals that way but you'll start to see them happen later this year when you know companies get more desperate that's not the first thing that happens though um i think that that to your point about the talent market it's definitely going to happen has it happened yet no uh what has to happen is first all these open wrecks get canceled companies freeze their hiring plans then eventually they do layoffs that's coming

SPEAKER_205: and then that's here both of those things are here both are here so what's the next in talent wars well

SPEAKER_24: yeah i mean look but within the next six months the talent market is not going to be as hot and you know in the same way that startups aren't getting 10 term sheets now that maybe they get one or two if they're a good company same thing with talent right they're not going to have 10 job offers they might have one or two and that's going to create uh that's not going to create the same upward pressure continuing upward pressure for um for increases in comp um to your point about like will sas contracts be cut i mean i think software is pretty sticky i mean if it's a good product um will deal cycles get longer yes will there be more mortality risk in the startup or smb customer bases of companies yes um i think one concept that startups may want to wrap their heads around is what i would call deferred mortality risk meaning that during the last few years during the boom times the graduation rate from c to series a to series b was very high perhaps artificially high so there's a lot of companies that got funded in advance to the next round where in more normal times they wouldn't have

SPEAKER_207: made it so got it now if those companies haven't really fixed their issues they've just deferred the mortality so i think all of us probably in sasland need to be modeling out higher logo churn uh for uh

SPEAKER_24: for customer bases that are skewed towards startups or smbs and we don't know what those numbers are

SPEAKER_17: going to be yet but that is likely to happen i think that that's right i think the other thing is that um there there's a lot of companies that are going to have to get religion on free cash flow conversion

SPEAKER_61: asap and i just think that most ceos to be very blunt are poorly educated and innumerate so their

SPEAKER_85: level of numeracy to even understand this is pretty poor and most uh board directors are equally can you

SPEAKER_210: unpack it right now what does it mean to to get the business uh to free cash flow what does it take

SPEAKER_38: why is it important and what what are the how do those businesses look differently to spend less than you make okay hold on i just want to make sure i got it correct you make money but the number of the money you make is higher than the number of the money you spend got it okay and then there's a

SPEAKER_00: delta there there's some difference between those two numbers and that number is important to some

SPEAKER_61: people is what you're saying i think increasingly getting that number to be greater than zero um is going to be really important it it allows you again everybody starts to throw out this whole thing which is oh my god you can never slow growth and the company will die and yeah maybe in a

Chamath Palihapitiya: vacuum that that's true but when every other company is fighting tooth and nail to survive the only thing that you need to do is actually survive by surviving you win yeah and if you can

SPEAKER_215: basically make your cash last as long as possible even if you cut to the bone and stop growing if you come out the other end and you're the only company that's left you will win and run over

Chamath Palihapitiya: the market you may have pushed to the right a few years your plans of world dominance but they're still available to you it's the company that foolishly thinks that they can continue to spend money at the same rate or in the same ways that are going to learn this hard lesson because i think that investors are not going to tolerate being able to you know provide incremental capital to organizations funds who are then you know misallocating that capital to basically support a poorly marked portfolio and i think that is going to be the real come to jesus that actually makes all of this thing come clean like pension funds family offices endowments all these organizations are smart enough to realize that they're giving good money after bad if what those folks are going to do is not demand portfolio rehabilitation and instead are just going to basically keep the marks of their old funds because they're just in a in a game of waiting it out where the whole taking action greater than

SPEAKER_00: you know blind hope and just going you know steady doing what you've been doing you got to make some

Chamath Palihapitiya: changes i mean look i love brad's reaction i think that most growth oriented funds are looking at their portfolios and they're trying to balance two strategies strategy one is get into massive rehabilitation mode the problem is most of these people have never built or run a company so they have no idea how to rehabilitate anything they're you know market momentum folks and in that they were excellent but in actually helping ceos build and rebuild a business i think that they're not as well suited doesn't mean they can't do it but they're not as well suited that's path a but i think that path is very painful and it requires you to take medicine the bitter medicine which is to basically mark your portfolio down 50 or 60 percent just like the public market terminal valuations have gone down the other alternative is to basically raise enough money to do for example unpriced converts into those same companies so that you don't have to remark so that the auditors will be allowed to carry these fake valuations you can maybe mark it down 10 or 15 percent but you don't have to mark it down 50 or 60 percent and hope the market returns to his previous state but as we've all talked about that previous state is probably unreliable because it was a moment where we had a global pandemic where we took rates to zero and we printed nine or ten trillion dollars of excess liquidity that inflated these things so i got to think that you know prices in 2019 were a little bit ticking up 2020 were really ticking up 2021 was egregious and 2022 is the come is you know where it all comes home to roost uh

SPEAKER_38: brad explain to us uh we we hear free cash flow we hear income net income ebitda we hear all these terms now free cash flow is what everybody is focused on i i believe that seems to be the predominant um rallying cry in a lot of public market companies now can you explain to people what the difference between these things are because people kind of bundle them together why would somebody like dara at uber just say hey you know we've been talking about adjusted ebitda ebitda income net income all this stuff but free cash flow is what we want to focus on now or is that correct yeah yeah

SPEAKER_109: you know and our friend bill gurley uh rails on this adjusted adjusted and you know look to your left

SPEAKER_112: look to your right adjusted one more time ebitda right like in markets like this what people want to know or what's the green stuff i can take out of the business and put under my mattress free cash flow distributable free cash flow and not only that how much per share i think the single biggest issue growth investors are focused on today is the easy way out for all these companies they'll tap down a little bit on their hiring they'll tap down on their spend but out of the back door they want to give a bunch of free stock to employees to help offset that pain this is really important to understand because stock is a real expense right when a company goes public the more shares you have the lower your price so it is a real expense to everybody the founders the employees the investors right and so what's what i think the single biggest conversation going on in boardrooms in silica valley today is hey can we have a little bit more stock this year whether it's options or whether it's outright rsu's to give to employees because if we don't give it to employees they tell us they're going to leave this is a real hard truth i had a ceo of an incredible company call me and say listen we pay our engineers a million bucks ahead but we give them stock that over the last five years has been worth another million dollars each year so they built their lives as though they had two million dollars a year in income they bought a house they bought cars they sent their kids to private schools based upon that two million dollars and now when we tell them that this upcoming year the mill we're not making whole on that million it can't be when when we win you win and when we when we lose you win so the tough conversation is we're not re-upping you because the stock's been cut in half and so now that engineer is saying yeah but this year that means i'm only getting paid 1.2 million and the answer the tough answer is yes right shared sacrifice you should have never assumed that that was going to be worth an incremental million dollars a year but that takes leadership that takes courage that takes a board that knows what they're doing to explain that over the full arc of that employment and the first thing the mercenary employee says is well i'll just go work somewhere else and the right answer for a good leader is okay if that's your approach to this business then you need to go work somewhere else i mean you just did

SPEAKER_00: a great test right that's a great filter you you uh you're a mercenary and you know you were with us when we're up but you're not with us when we have to take some austerity measures is this the end of entitlement across the board sacks i mean we had an entitlement class everybody thought they could raise a vc fund everybody thought they would have a hundred percent irr because they would just buy nfts and flip crypto projects that had no released product and the same with employees they just thought

SPEAKER_38: i can just keep you know raising my salary x amount and now it looks like apple said everybody comes back

SPEAKER_00: to work three days a week and we don't see a lot of people quitting apple because there may not be another option and maybe a lot of the firings that are occurring i am thinking of cameo here had top three of their top like six or seven leaders leave i interpreted that as maybe they had really big comp packages and when they did the layoffs they said you know what the number twos in these positions can get the job done for a third of the price maybe that's better for the business so

David Sacks: is this the end of austerity the end of entitlement i think so or a lot of it there was a great article here uh in well that was that came out recently about netflix where netflix they're finally getting real

SPEAKER_24: about their kind of entitled their woke entitled employee problem and this is in the new york post but there's many other um newspapers that covered it basically it says here netflix tells woke workers to quit if they're offended if you find it hard to support our content breath netflix may not be the best place for you said the memo so period full stop yeah they're just sick of it they're just not going to put up with it anymore they're sick of being held hostage by their employees who think that they can kind of muscle the leaders of the company by starting a petition or boycott campaign every time they want to drive the company in a certain direction and so i think companies are finally figuring out this is the only way to react to basically being held hostage if you don't like it

SPEAKER_00: quit if you don't have seven eight job offers you know and recruiters calling you constantly because everybody's on the hiring freeze well then maybe people will appreciate the contract of i work for you you give me money and then everything else is superfluous on that note did anybody see the ricky

SPEAKER_233: gervais netflix special yet if not on netflix it's on netflix it's unbelievable i mean dave chapelle you know in terms of bravery ricky gervais was like i've already made my money i'm burning the

SPEAKER_00: the whole building down i mean he went full equal opportunist and i mean i think the trans issue became like 10 or 20 percent of the of his latest special so it does seem like the comedians are saying you know what we're gonna make jokes we're gonna make jokes about everybody we're not gonna buy into this you can't cancel us we're just gonna keep making jokes and we're gonna keep making money and and that whole

SPEAKER_124: concept that you know people are gonna be held hostage i think is over independent of what you think

SPEAKER_237: of making jokes of you know various marginalized or smaller groups of people can we please go back to

SPEAKER_24: something brad said a while back about how mansion saved the democratic party because i think there's actually interesting point there yeah yeah such notorious right-wingers as jeff bezos have said something very similar lately when uh do you see that where biden tried biden tried to blame billionaires for the inflation and bezos was having none of it he said no listen it's not because of us or our companies because you printed too much money and joe biden or he said mansion saved you from yourself because it would have been another four trillion of spending on top of all the other trillions of spending that we had last year so it's absolutely the case that that if the administration was left to its own devices remember they were touting back in december they were touting the idea that this four trillion build back better spending would somehow be the cure to inflation imagine if they had poured

SPEAKER_38: that gasoline onto the fire i mean we would go to 20 percent inflation we might have had a currency uh you know like a serious currency issue no chamoff but let me just finish the points i don't want to

SPEAKER_24: just make a partisan point here i want to there's there's a serious economics point here which are learning i hope our policymakers learn from this which is what happened over the last couple of years we had 10 trillion dollars of money printing right why they do that they thought that they could

SPEAKER_58: stimulate our way out of this coveted recession that they had induced with lockdowns in any event the point is they thought they could stimulate economic activity by printing money and maybe cynically politically they thought it'd be good for them in the midterms what actually happened that 10 trillion goes into the economy but there's no corresponding increase in the output of goods and services so two things happen first price levels rise and we get inflation and second we get an asset bubble in the stock market and then the way both those things sort of come crashing down to earth is the fed looks at this inflation and suddenly has to jack up interest rates that pops the asset bubble it vaporizes something like 14 of global wealth and then simultaneously workers feel a lot poorer because their wages haven't kept up with inflation so this whole idea that you can just print money as a way to create wealth and prosperity i hope what we take away from this i think recession that we're going into is that is not a viable strategy the only thing that creates wealth in a society is the output of goods and services that people want and you just can't try to sort of play games with that by creating phantom the sort of phantom money that doesn't represent a real

SPEAKER_168: increase in good services or productivity yeah it's hard for people not to take this all as partisan but

SPEAKER_38: if you just look at the objective facts the last two administrations have printed money like drunken sailors and it's a mess right now so you you can divorce yourself from any conception that this is partisan trump spent a ton of money and so did uh biden and who's more qualified than trump and biden

SPEAKER_00: elon bezos the people who appear on this podcast we have much more of a pulse on what's happening in the actual real economy and in entrepreneurship and capital allocating than these people and i love the

SPEAKER_247: fact that now you know bezos is a poster he just doesn't get he doesn't care uh and i think we're having

SPEAKER_24: like an honest discussion now right one of the one of the areas where i i don't think elon gets enough credit is when he explains macroeconomics i think he actually really understands the the what an economy is i mean an economy is basically a trading system for the production of goods and services if you were to go this is a point he's made if you were to go to a desert island and somebody just gives you a

SPEAKER_58: billion dollars when you're sitting there on that island you can't buy anything it doesn't make you wealthier what makes you wealthier is the production of goods and services that people want and that's

SPEAKER_24: ultimately what an economy is money is just the accounting system the dollars is the accounting system if you start printing lots of money all you're doing is debasing the accounting system it doesn't make anyone richer and yet you know the way that conversations around economics really take place the only thing you ever hear about is stimulating demand you never really hear anything about production and i mean this is an old debate that goes back to the 1980s about you know supply site economics but regards to what you call it wealth ultimately comes from our capacity to produce goods

SPEAKER_38: and services that people want it's a great point chamath all this adds up to companies and the government's balance sheet becoming tighter and more efficient so the talent diffusion across the industry perhaps everybody being entitled and getting overpaid people not wanting to go to work people who have jobs not wanting to go to the office all of this seems to have actually reversed in three months

SPEAKER_00: so this medicine we're taking we stopped eating the bad food we started working out we're getting better sleep this is going to turn around for the the companies that take the medicine the management teams the

SPEAKER_38: capital allocators who do the hard work and sharpen their pencils as we've talked about

SPEAKER_00: this will all result in a more efficient uh and vibrant economy yes i think for the most part i think

SPEAKER_61: there's still going to continue to be examples of folks who basically run themselves into a brick wall

SPEAKER_85: because they don't want to make the hard decisions that it's going to be more exaggerated in silicon valley because we have a culture of tolerance and we have an economic business model that supports kind of irresponsible decision making and supports poor governance you know look i've said this many

SPEAKER_215: times but a fund's job ultimately is to make a very important decision about whether they truly care about generating massive returns or whether the fee income becomes so meaningful so as to drown out every

Chamath Palihapitiya: other incentive that they have and i think by and large in silicon valley if you track all of the increased frequency and fundraising you can also probably follow those dollars and they generally will be the most poorly run uh they'll be held the least accountable and i think those will have the largest negative outcomes and then instead if you follow the dollars of the the real practitioners who have discipline they look kind of sheepish and silly for years in the middle of a rally but they're the ones that are able to really reset and help some of these few companies really win and i think that you're

SPEAKER_85: going to go through that cycle over the next four or five years

SPEAKER_38: and so you know i think it's super well said schmuth because i have felt at or i've been made to feel

SPEAKER_254: silly by some folks who said why are you asking to do diligence why do you want to have a board seat why do you want to talk to customers why are you asking for month by month revenue you made a sub-economic

Chamath Palihapitiya: decision like the idea that over the last four or five years you optimized for anything except the market beta was kind of dumb you know and it's and and the worst thing that you could have done in that period was confuse alpha and beta meaning alpha is what you are able to do because of your discrete skill versus anybody else beta is when just the market goes up said differently you could take any nba player and put them on a high school basketball team and they would be the you know college player of the year any single one okay that's beta yeah if you then can be the mvp of the nba that's alpha yeah okay and i think that a lot of folks um were made to feel very silly or you know a downer or a wet blanket um in these last few years who will probably have the last laugh it's been

SPEAKER_38: unbelievable brad to watch the changing of attitudes and the entitlement in fundraising and private markets

SPEAKER_00: in the last 60 days and it's been even more pronounced in the last 30. uh i literally have people we talked to last month who had really crazy expectations they've come down by 50 they wanted 50 now they're at 25 they didn't want board seats now they're okay with board seats information rights they were fighting against information rights i don't know why that's a hill to die on now they're like information rights yeah sure here's our cfo's email we need to get money in the doors so um i guess what's the silver lining here does seem to me as a great setup right now wait jason

Chamath Palihapitiya: let me ask you a question hold on yeah mike or to brad like and then you're forgetting one other key

SPEAKER_215: thing in in the in the race to raise all of this money what did these folks do they hired these mid-level kids as partners into their venture firms and gave them money to put into companies what do these people know no mentoring i'm not saying it disparagingly i'm just like what do they know how do they know

Chamath Palihapitiya: how to actually invest investing is just not you see it you just say okay well i think sounds cool you

SPEAKER_111: know there are some of those uh younger folks who are going to turn out to be all-stars and they're just like in the nba and they're gonna be some that you know prove to be writing the beta but let me answer jason's question because you know maybe end on a on a note of uh optimism you know in some countries you know notably china right now they're doing a lot to prop up a bunch of companies that should be allowed to fail right one of the beautiful things about free market capitalism the

SPEAKER_112: creative destruction the cycle time on creative destruction in this country has never been faster right make no mistake about it if you took money at a valuation over a billion dollars

SPEAKER_111: okay last year you're not that's not a venture capital bet i call it quasi public right you stepped into the bigs and you said i will deliver this plan

SPEAKER_112: and if you don't deliver the plan there's not going to be a lot of tolerance there's not going to be tolerance for just giving away a bunch of more stock there's not going to be tolerance for no course correction right maybe in seed or series a right there's a lot of tolerance because you sign up to a lot of unpredictability but the level of tolerance that you'll see out of late stage growth investors is going to be akin to what they do with a public company that runs them off a cliff you know how that is you've been on those earning calls so i think this is going to shine a light on the bifurcation that we really have we call all of this venture capital but the truth of the matter is series c and before is venture once you're stepping into the bigs and taking money at a billion two billions the expectations are different your access to capital will be different um the expected course correction will be different right but i take it as a um i take it as a sign of strength that we're going to work through this we're going to have you know the the private markets are absolutely going to go through a reset but we'll get through it and the winners will win and those who fail to course correct and want to fly into the wall will do that and we'll get on with the next generation of incredible entrepreneurs solving big problems the secular curve of technology solving big problems has never been steeper right and the cycles that overlay that secular curve are not suspended we have not suspended wars we have not suspended economic cycles and so we're going to have to get through this one it's happening in record pace actually that's interesting point i want to let me ask brad a

SPEAKER_24: question about that which is what's the potential here for more of like a v-shaped recession where

SPEAKER_181: to your point the mark is correct more rapidly and violently than ever snap misses of you know issues a new forecast down 40 percent um is there a possibility that this thing gets resolved in say six months that's not to say that uh valuation levels are ever back to where they were you know in the second half of 2021 but in six months could we have sort of done this big reset washed out a lot of the problems and um you know again valuations are not back but the market become the the capital

SPEAKER_24: markets become become unfrozen and we're back to a more normal operating environment as opposed to say yeah as opposed to say like more of a you where we're kind of bouncing around the bottoms here in this volatile state for about 18 months um you know and then it's more like the dot-com crash we come out of it in two years i see smart people on both sides of this i hear jason lemkin's been saying i think this is kind of short deep sweet six month reset fred wilson just wrote 18 months at least i think sequoia is saying two years i mean i think our instinct is 18 months to two years but what do you think the possibility is that we could be in a more normal environment in six months right so

SPEAKER_111: let's let's separate public markets and venture markets because venture markets as you know have a six to 12 month lag just in terms of the reset but i would say you know the future is a distribution of probable outcomes there's a downside case an upside case in the base case i think the base case is by this fall we'll have very good evidence right of where inflation is rolling over i think it is

SPEAKER_112: rolling over what the fed is likely to do the upward bound on on interest rates and i think we'll be at a point where we can start underwriting to the five-year average again make no mistake about it the s p and the nasdaq today are still 30 above where they were in january of 2020

SPEAKER_190: 30 above where they were in january 2020 how much better is the world today than where it was in

SPEAKER_112: january 2020 well i think what the market is saying is that we've grown the economy on a nominal basis about 15 percent during that time and earnings have about doubled right the earnings margins of those companies are about have about doubled so you would expect normal course and trajectory maybe that those companies would be 30 percent more valuable the problem is as we look ahead to chamas point the earnings are likely to come down profit margins are being squeezed so i think there's a decent decent argument there's more pain to come in the public markets that we haven't seen the bottom however i do think that the fed is taking a good course here i don't think that we have runaway inflation i think that um you know we're going to have an investable environment come this fall however i think for venture there's a six to a 12 month lag to that so i think you got to add it to those six months to really get to the market clearing prices for all these companies but i think it's incumbent upon all of us to give really good feedback today and i see a lot of it right to entrepreneurs about making that course correction if they're only turning the plane 10 degrees when they see lightning dead ahead they're making a huge mistake the default action by every founder today should be a 90 degree course correction unless they have very good idiosyncratic reason in that business in terms of their out

SPEAKER_274: performance to stay the course plan for the worst hope for the best yeah and you could even bifurcate

SPEAKER_38: the companies in private markets to ones that have strong product market fit and the ones that don't there's a lot of companies to david's point that we're getting series b's without product market fit you know it's it's one thing to get your series a when you have this like weak product market fit and a great story but when you start seeing series b's happening on momentum it's like that to me is is is is going to be impossible to resolve that company has to go to zero or has to reset or give even give

SPEAKER_00: money back to founders those are the really the three things i would see as a true bottom like the really dark moment where people have two or three liquidation preferences people reset reset comp and tell people listen we're going to cut comp 30 across the board for management if you don't like it leave um and then finally people saying you know what we're going to give the 60 cents on the dollar

SPEAKER_124: back to investors those are the three things i saw during the two downturns you're saying something

SPEAKER_171: that i think is also important that's not really talked about which is that there's going to be a lot

SPEAKER_85: of really good companies with really horrible capital structures really terrible cap tables really bad valuations really big overhangs of preference stock that are going to have to get worked out and

Chamath Palihapitiya: in getting that worked out going back to what brad said the person that course corrects 90 degrees will win and the reason they'll win may not even because they're being that courageous they're just being less stupid than everybody else quite honestly because you have to remember in most of these

SPEAKER_215: markets over the last four or five years we funded four or five versions of every imaginable company

SPEAKER_41: right and there's going to be two winners 70 and 30 yeah and and there's really only going to be one

Chamath Palihapitiya: winner and then there's going to be a marginal second sign of also ran that captures some value and everybody else is not that valuable and you know that's roughly been true but the reason we were able to support that was that every company looked kind of interesting anyone with traction um could be you know competed against because the only differentiator at the time was very cheap money that was effectively free and it was flowing in you know faster than you could count so all of that

SPEAKER_85: has to get sorted out so i just think that that those dynamics shouldn't be ignored and so you know

David Friedberg: again hard work too i mean to the thing we've been saying here the it's hard work for a board and

SPEAKER_38: founders to do this but what choice do you have well the problem is if you take much more sophisticated

SPEAKER_61: markets like the debt markets which i would say are much more sophisticated okay cutthroat liquid

Chamath Palihapitiya: covenants when you see the people that make the money two things are true number one is they're incredibly sharp elbowed and number two is they make money in moments like this right if you look at apollo's great returns or blackstone's great returns or cerebrous you know these folks were the you know they they really were the barbarians at the gates and they made all the money in moments of true dislocation if you apply that construct here you know we've never had to go through a period where there are some real terms and conditions attached to the incremental dollar um and i think that if that does come to pass in silicon valley you're just going to have a reckoning and i think that that what it'll really do is just sort out the winners and the losers and it'll sort out the

SPEAKER_215: folks that were able to get to default or close to default alive or at least default life support

SPEAKER_283: default investable default investable i like that one too i mean sax made a great tweet he basically said it's not default alive or dead investable or not and that's an even finer filter well no default

SPEAKER_24: default alive is fantastic if you can get there basically just means cash flow positive i mean all default alive means is that you're cash flow positive or you're going to be cash flow positive based on the money you have in the you don't need money exactly you don't need money well of course that's the best place to be is you don't need money but i think you know for early stage companies that's almost an impossible standard you know it takes time to get to the point of being casual positive so therefore i was trying to propose a standard that i thought was more actionable for founders because it was because it wasn't impossible and i call it default investable which is here are the metrics that you need at least i can tell you what they are in the sas world you know here's what great metrics look like here's what good metrics look like here's some danger zone metrics and you need you know out of the five key metrics you really need three or four great ones and one or two good ones to raise in this environment and no dangerous metrics and if you don't have those you need to give yourself the time to fix the problems in your business to get to those metrics um on that note you know sequoia had a really good chart um called survival the quickest that illustrates this concept of giving yourself time and i threw it in the chat um but basically what it shows is there's a green line and an orange line the the green line is the company that realizes in may of 2022 that we've gone into a very different environment and they slash their burn in half and they basically double their runway and then there's the other company that just keeps going

SPEAKER_58: along the same path they were at until they realize oh wait a second you know and then that you know some point in the future they realize there's been a change then they make a small cut they make another small cut and they're always behind the eight ball and i've seen this so many times before

SPEAKER_24: that the company doesn't make cuts until they're forced to and so they never really lengthen their runway and then when they finally do make the cuts they go into a death spiral and die and now they're

SPEAKER_233: over the atlantic and there's not enough fuel to get to a landing strip and you just plunge into the

SPEAKER_290: cold ocean and die founders really have to think about the the asymmetry of the risks that they face

SPEAKER_207: right which is let's say that you cut too much and the environment is better than you think it's going to be well you can always hire back i promise you price in all likelihood i promise you'll be able to hire back okay but on the other hand if you don't cut enough and the situation is worse than you think then you just die so you this is why andy gross said only the paranoid survive you've got to think about the downside risk and be more skewed towards the bad scenario than sort of the the

SPEAKER_294: sort of wishful thinking scenario hey so david i just just one final point here you know because

SPEAKER_112: we have all these decks flying around now by venture capitalists telling founders to go make these really tough decisions being a little self-reflective where were we all six months ago where were we in october when we were putting more money in and they were hiring like crazy where were we in november right i remember some of the conversations that we were having but i look i posted in in chat layoffs.fyi right the number one company on that list gets here sequoia company okay are they making a course correction you bet your ass they are they're laying up 4500 people 15 of the workforce the second company on that list lacework an altimeter software company that's doing terrific growing hundreds of percent laying off 300 people 20 right a 90 degrees turn of the plane right that company will never need cash again but it's not just flying toward the lightning they're making the tough decisions because that's what leaders do in businesses that are even good businesses there are a lot of companies that are ship businesses that should be on this list but they're bumbling along and not making the tough decisions we need venture capitalists that instead of you know this being a popularity contest venture capitalists need to look inside as well and say what about our firm didn't didn't work right why weren't we issuing these course corrections and telling people to tap the brakes a little bit when we knew markets were overheated last year right and so i think this there's a lot of responsibility that sits on both sides of the table um but i'm you know there's 714 startups on this list by the time we're done there are going to be at least 3 000 startups i was about to say add a zero add a zero that's another reason i say the fed is getting what it wants right this labor market is you know is cooling down very quickly

SPEAKER_00: at least in silicon valley well i mean and the fact that people felt like they didn't need to take a job and they could live off credit and there would always be jobs for them i think people are going to have to rethink like can i be fun ployed forever and you know do i need to take my career seriously doing to pay down my debt do i need to have a a balanced uh balance sheet do i need to my personal

SPEAKER_124: balance sheet needs to be in order as well i think that's what individual workers need to think about

SPEAKER_24: yeah i mean brad's right that there's certainly enough blame to go around in the ecosystem and you know vcs bought into these frothy evaluation levels last year um to some degree we were all gas lit by by the fed and these low interest rate policies i wrote my post about burn multiple and how to measure capital efficiency two years ago um it's getting a lot more retweets now than it did back then but uh but look do vcs have some self-reflecting to do definitely but you know i'm seeing a lot of tweets going around basically saying like people objecting to this advice on the grounds you'll hear something like if you vcs wanted us to operate more efficiently then you

SPEAKER_58: should have invested more efficiently or if you wanted us to be disciplined you should have been more disciplined in your investing and to me that's kind of missing the point it's kind of cutting off your nose to spite your face the reason we're giving this advice is because we just want our companies to survive and we don't want a zero we don't want a zero we've been through multiple down cycles and the truth of matter is unless you've been in the business world for over 14 years

SPEAKER_24: you've never been through a down cycle i mean that means that you know no founder under the age of what like 36 has even seen a down cycle before they don't know what it can be like when you go into

SPEAKER_00: a two-year nuclear they probably they probably weren't the pilots at that time anyway so it's more like people who are 40 45 have the scar tissue because they were in the pilot seat totally

SPEAKER_181: totally so the reason you're hearing all these vcs all of a sudden say get more disciplined is is

SPEAKER_24: mainly because we've seen this movie before and we don't want our companies to run out of money and die

SPEAKER_61: i think you can safely short if you could the stock of all of these rando peanut gallery ceos

SPEAKER_84: tweeting their disdain on twitter if you're right that would be a great index index down fixing stuff

SPEAKER_310: just write that company to zero yeah just turn your twitter off and and just sharpen your pencils

SPEAKER_41: um i i we we would be remiss if we didn't talk about uh at least for this last segment about the

SPEAKER_274: tragedy in uval d uvalde texas uh 80 miles west of san antonio and tuesday 19 elementary kids

SPEAKER_169: two adults were murdered um how are we going to talk about this without losing our it's really hard i

SPEAKER_38: think maybe the road map i did give this a lot of thought it was like why why is this first segment

Chamath Palihapitiya: on the market trundling along on life support for an hour and 10 minutes and i think part of it is

SPEAKER_171: because none of us can really talk about this without losing our cool it's really hard and but

SPEAKER_38: i do think we did good work chamath i i was thinking about the good work we did in the episode of roe v wade and we actually came to a point where we said you know here are the extreme positions and then you're like hey wait a second i found this data point i found this data point and we

SPEAKER_00: actually figured out hey 80 of people want this definition of abortion in the united states so i i'll throw it to you chamath you know we're all outraged we're all frustrated but maybe we could start there is there a consensus of what could be accomplished here that you've come to i've started to think about it a whole bunch but you know we're all outraged we could all yell and scream here but a path forward is where my mind goes i'll just tell you what i

SPEAKER_85: what i um have been thinking about okay this is just a random stream of consciousness let's do it i think that the democrats will not make any progress because they try to make this unfortunately uh a moral virtue signaling issue the republicans will not make any progress because they become sort of very binary adamant um absolutists about constitutional rights and the interpretation of that right in a very specific way um the truth is in the middle you know if you go back before we talk about uvaldi um peyton john dron who was the kid that shot up a tops supermarket in buffalo and killed umpteen you know black shoppers lived in a state where there was a red flag law for those that don't understand what red flag laws are david you know tweeted some stuff about it as well but essentially it allows a community member or a family member or a school uh teacher or a police officer to essentially put a restraining order around an individual that they think could cause harm and use that as a way to confiscate their weapons people have talked about red flag laws as being possible while he lived in a state the kid was you know put under a psych hold you know a year ago and it it all just falls through the cracks now you know ted cruz or somebody else said let's spend 10 billion dollars and only have one door into a school and put an armed guard there well then you find out that uvaldi you know doubled their security spend over the last two or three years they actually had a person that may or may not have just kind of like stepped to the side or something to let them in the police according to the uh ap showed up and stood around for 40 minutes before they were able to actually breach the school you know so much so that the quote in the ap article was that there was a parent that tried to get other parents to for 40 minutes they were standing there you know in california you have you know very restrictive measures um but we've had you know in san bernardino and other places we've had mass shootings here as well because the guns can

SPEAKER_315: just get transported across state lines and there's there's no real way to stop this the nra i find out just so if you guys are interested uh mitt romney took 13.6 million dollars

SPEAKER_85: from the nra this is the moral finger wagger of the republican side who you know last time i checked is a multi centi millionaire but somehow still needs to take 13 million dollars from these folks rich

SPEAKER_315: burr took 7 million roy blunt 4.5 million tom tillis 4.4 million corey gardner 4 million marco rubio 3.3

SPEAKER_85: million there's no effective counter lobby that says how about we have a more moderate and restrained pro-gun set of rights and field candidates on the left and the right that could jason find this

Chamath Palihapitiya: middle ground and so you know we're in this two or three day period it seems like where folks will get extreme and then nothing will happen here's one thing that i think we can all agree as well if you look at the underlying family situation of all of these mass shooters there is a really disturbing theme that i think is worth putting out there these are all universally young men 18 19 odd years old

SPEAKER_85: they come from broken families this individual salvator ramos um father was absent uh again according to the times in the wall street journal article i read mother intermittent drug use issues lived with the grandmother bullied they're unemployed barely graduated if graduated at all in high school um they harbored these deep resentments towards women or minority groups um they then project a lot

Chamath Palihapitiya: of their frustration they were bullied potentially in high school growing up and all of the they were posting all kinds of very challenging content you know apparently this kid had a one tick tock of where he sat in a car with a dead cat in a paper bag you know he would post on instagram of assault rifles and nothing happens so i just think that we have to acknowledge that there's a complete failure of our politicians and at this point i think they should all be replaced writ large every single one nobody has added value to this solution nobody has really tried to figure this out but then also like parents have to do something incrementally more from the perspective of the community because these kids are going to school with our kids and the red flags are there the red flags are there so

SPEAKER_324: just one last thing and i said i said brad i said to my kids when you interact with your friends i just

Chamath Palihapitiya: want you to understand when you're on social media and you encounter this content i hope you're never like either scared or embarrassed or unsure enough to just show somebody when this stuff is happening so that you can let somebody with a little bit more maturity and judgment try to figure out what to do if anything at all um but these communities are completely failing uh these kids as well brad you

SPEAKER_111: have something i would say that um every country on the planet has kids with mental health disorders but not every country on the planet has kids getting shot up in schools and supermarkets and churches

SPEAKER_190: that is a unique feature of the system that we accept the system we created

SPEAKER_112: right i'm not against guns you guys know i took my kids to a shooting range last weekend but the idea that we let you know assault weapons be sold in this country with no background checks that we let assault white rifles be sold in this country with no limits on magazine sizes that you can just replace magazines it's total insanity right so i think this is a country that does a lot to self-help but we are not self-helping here after the assassination attempt of ronald reagan amazingly republicans found their voice and they said let's have an assault ban on assault weapons or let's have a ban on assault weapons that expired and we as a i asked my analysts i said plot the number of shootings since the expiration of that ban and it's terrifying yeah it's obvious and it should be something that we just like don't accept like the middle ground jason i saw what you tweeted there is an obvious middle ground right there's about whether it's background checks that steve kerr i mean he's gone viral yeah feeling the same way we all feel but they're also technical solutions why the hell do we let assault weapons why why not put a scrambling device on these weapons so that you can't fire them in schools and churches if somebody says that's a breach of their second amendment rights i'm sorry i'm also not going to allow you to drive into the schoolyard with nuclear material there are some rational limits we can agree to so i don't think this is a partisan thing at this point in time nobody's saying you know ban all guns right in fact i i think there's a plurality among gun owners they too want reasonable limitations on these things which are killing machines not hunting machines

SPEAKER_24: sex any thoughts on this yeah i mean i so i think if we're looking for solutions i think these red flag laws and building on them is is the way to go um you know the the problem with with background checks and and i'm not against them i mean you know i've i've gone through background checks to get you know my guns and i'm in favor of them but they wouldn't have done anything to stop the buffalo shooter they didn't i mean you know the buffalo shooter was in new york they've got the toughest gun control laws in the nation the background check didn't stop him from getting the gun because he bought it lawfully didn't have a criminal record so you know it doesn't that by itself isn't going to do it so i think where these red flag laws are useful is that we've seen with these all these school shooters they have a similar kind of profile right they are disturbed young men like in their who are still school age 18 19 early 20s exactly now this shooter in uh uvalde i mean there

SPEAKER_207: are reports coming out now that he had been cutting his face that uh he had aimed a bb gun at people so he was clearly idioting towards this idea of shooting people he had posted um violent fantasies basically of mass shootings on social media and he told his classmates he wanted to kill him i mean

SPEAKER_338: there's almost always a call for help here same with the buffalo shooting i mean the people who

SPEAKER_58: these like psychos go to school with are the least surprised they all know because these people have been warning they've been saying that they're going to do it so i think we have this problem of we've

SPEAKER_207: got these young psychotic people and i think the reason why it happens young is when somehow they get into adulthood whatever this mental illness they've got basically takes hold and they snap they become

SPEAKER_58: psychotic and it doesn't take long for them to act on those fantasies those violent fantasies so the simple solution here i think is to prevent those people from getting guns you know if you threaten mass violence uh you shouldn't be able to get a gun and i you know i personally don't think that's an abridgment of second amendment rights because look felons can't get guns either if you commit a felony you can't get a gun these people haven't committed a felony yet but i don't want to wait until they do

SPEAKER_207: if they're if they have these kinds of red flags against them then there should be a way to file

SPEAKER_168: to basically get a protective order preventative we don't we don't let 12 year olds drive cars we don't let them drink beer because we don't want 12 year olds drunk driving right and then at some

SPEAKER_38: point there's a licensing that occurs i think a lot of this is framing i think it just is once again very analogous to this abortion issue where most people are pro-choice and want restrictions on abortion where they don't occur after a certain number of weeks just like europe got to and i was just you know ideating on this and i think replacing the nra to your point chamath they have funded people they've become a key funding um source for a lot of folks and they've they've been overfunded themselves um what if we had americans for reasonable gun safety and we have this organization raise a ton of money and they just outbid the nra for republicans uh and for people who are against

SPEAKER_342: background checks and we just have a question but look mike bloomberg started every town for gun control

Chamath Palihapitiya: after newtown and it did it hasn't really had i think the impact that that we wanted i mean well

SPEAKER_38: i think part of it is what you said so let me just give you my my little four four bullet points here

SPEAKER_00: and have you react it you you are right that people are absolutists no abortion you know no restrictions and no guns or no restrictions on guns background checks we all agree on make them more intense and make them proportional to the caliber of the weapon if you want one of these weapons why don't we have you go through a training course so for a pistol you've got a two-hour training course for an ar-15 or something that's more powerful how about an eight-hour course a four-hour course then you could actually see the red flags emerge and would somebody who has this red flag issue go through that the red flag laws should be national and they should be very strong and then finally what if we introduced insurance for certain classes of weapons not all if you want to get a rifle you know to go hunting or a pistol for self-defense maybe you don't need to have insurance or maybe if you have one you don't need to have insurance but once you get to high caliber once you get to having clips that are a certain size what if we just had some basic insurance because that would force then somebody to underwrite the danger of that weapon jaco i mean look

SPEAKER_24: that the trick here is to figure out a system that has the least possible impact on law-abiding americans there's maybe a few thousand of these um mentally highly mentally disturbed uh young men but like i said their schools know who they are yeah right and what we need is a process where you know that doesn't turn into the no-fly list where all of a sudden everybody's on it

SPEAKER_58: or uh training or insurance or with content moderation or something like that this is the problem look this is what the nra is afraid of is that you create a red flag process

SPEAKER_24: and all of a sudden thousands or millions of people could be on it right so you need a

SPEAKER_349: right but that's not true because you had you had this kid who could have been put on it

SPEAKER_24: in in new york he wasn't right no no no look i think we need to i think we need to figure out

SPEAKER_58: how do you create due process around this and i i think i think if a school they know i mean you get multiple affidavits from a teacher they should be put on the list yeah school is a no-brainer

SPEAKER_215: a police officer isn't the problem isn't that these these kids aren't identifiable because as you say david they're hiding in plain sight in these schools the problem is that there's no mechanism or incentive for any of these kids parents educators teachers community members

Chamath Palihapitiya: to do something about it because they don't know what that something is and this is where these kids are left to fester fester fester and then and it boils over and it's all of us that have to pay

SPEAKER_58: a collective price david can you respond it's even worse than that chamath because in the buffalo case the the buffalo shooter was referred to for psychiatric evaluation because they thought he did have mental illness and then they released him released after a weekend and then he got the gun so he should

SPEAKER_353: have been put on a red flag list and that should have been the end of it it's unbelievable database

SPEAKER_219: like a federal database which they are the nra fights too i also want to say something about these

SPEAKER_215: technology companies there is an explicit decision that technology companies

Chamath Palihapitiya: can make to be able to review content from certain kinds of accounts and start to build a cluster and a distribution of risk it is possible i helped build one for one of these companies so don't tell me it's not and i i will not tolerate some non-technical person telling me it's not possible it is absolutely possible and these technology companies should have a mechanism to be able to say you know what here are these thousand accounts david in the united states of these thousand individuals that you know are sort of getting to a red line here yeah pink line whatever but it's it's also

SPEAKER_181: it's it's not it's not just going to be what they post on social media it's although in both cases buffalo and uvaldi they both posted that they were going to do what they did but in addition to that

SPEAKER_360: no it's the breadcrumbs warning system warning system is a great idea with uvaldi the the cops

SPEAKER_58: were called out multiple times for violent disturbances you know and you combine that with what he's telling people in the schools and what he's posting on social media you it's there's an identifiable profile here it's not one red flag it's multiple red flags this is where these corporate

Chamath Palihapitiya: social media companies need to take off all of this for-profit focus that's extreme at this point be willing to degrade margins to hire the tens of thousands of people to manually review content okay there should be a mechanism that allows these folks to plug into some system that law enforcement can use there is an early warning system that can be built yeah early with your layer great idea human review before this stuff gets out of control david to control people's individual civil liberties

SPEAKER_370: okay but that is a big step forward from where we are today which is nothing there is zero leadership

SPEAKER_38: in america can i just ask david one question david you you correctly pointed out i think it's astute that um we can't penalize people who are legally getting guns or create too much friction for them i understand that would you consider training or insurance and just take each one individually for high capacity these deadly assault rifles would you consider what would you consider each of those in terms of realistic you know having some basic training a four-hour training class i mean like

SPEAKER_00: like you do for like you do for driving a car should we have that for assault rifles and then should

SPEAKER_24: insurance be required what training does is prevent accidental shootings okay that's great i'm not against training i love training i do training but but look what should it be mandatory what training

SPEAKER_58: prevents is is accidental shootings buffalo and uvalde and all these school shootings they're not accidental shootings they're going out there and killing as many people as possible and they know

SPEAKER_29: how to use these weapons i mean the problem is is what their objectives are so i don't think training

SPEAKER_200: solves it well let me ask you this if you were in training for four hours and you're an instructor

SPEAKER_38: and you were trained to look for red flags and it prevented some friction from this person going and

SPEAKER_344: buying it and doing the next day wouldn't that help and then going to have to buy insurance the buffalo

SPEAKER_207: shooter case this this grocery store for like four months i mean they are patient they are methodical

SPEAKER_58: and how they go about they would have causing this carnage i think so that but but we don't even necessarily need that filter jake out because i'm just telling you that the profiles of these psychos it's so dramatic when you go back and look i mean again multiple red flags they're killing animals i just don't know bb guns at humans they've been the cops have been called out on them they're posting on social media their classmates are all terrified of them their own families are terrified of them now we just need to basically we need an incentive to jama's point for schools i think to create these profiles and file the right forms the affidavits in the database now now do insurance for high

SPEAKER_38: capacity assault rifles would you be in favor of and do you think it's a viable solution what does that do i don't understand what that does well it means you would have to apply and say hey i'm jason calicanis i'm 18 years old i'm in this school i would like to apply to own an ar-15 and then some insurance company would say okay you're 18 years old you're a male you live in texas your bill is going to be 600 a year for this gun okay you're a 45 year old male in wyoming your bill is going to be a hundred dollars for this because we've done some actuary tables on the actual risk would you be in

SPEAKER_24: favor of insurance i think the key to solving this problem is to create the minimum disruption on law-abiding americans okay tens of millions of them who like so you wouldn't do insurance look i don't know what that would do exactly i want to stop the basically that i think what are a relatively small

SPEAKER_58: number of psychos young psychos maybe there's only a few hundred or a few thousand sort of candidates in the entire country i i don't want i don't want to wait for them to become felons to to basically

SPEAKER_215: prevent them from getting guns and by the way there's a there's there's a bunch of study about this there's been a lot of social science studies about the individuals that own guns legally and those individuals that sort of break and commit these crimes and whether we want to admit it or not there is a definable archetype it starts with gender then there's socioeconomic conditions then there's you know home family conditions yeah these are knowable things these can be built into a combination of software and human review and we need to create incentives so that these kids can get some kind of help or intervention and the worst case is we kind of you know do something with them in a way that helps us protect everybody else because sorry to interrupt we do this every day

SPEAKER_111: we turn this country on its head after september 11th we started profiling everybody and

SPEAKER_112: to sax's like minimum standard of disrupting other people's lives the department of homeland security disrupted everybody's lives take off your shoes go through the security before you get on a plane we changed everything in months because we said we're under attack but there we're under attack by a foreign presence a foreign terrorist presence here we're under attack by sick kids who need help okay but we need to disrupt our lives we need to change things right in order to save these innocent kids who are being shot up in schools where they're supposed to be safe and so i agree let's profile them let's get these companies doing their jobs helping us identify these kids get these kids help but we need to raise the volume and raise the urgency in dc the way we did after september 11 2001 that this is

SPEAKER_297: a national crisis as opposed to going back to the normal right distribution here by the way after

SPEAKER_61: 2011 um i was on a no-fly list and i think i've told you guys this story before but i would have

Chamath Palihapitiya: the triple s on my boarding pass for years until about 2007 or 2008 um constantly profiled you know put in the back room the whole nine yards but in the end you know did did it make me feel kind of like less than a lot of other people yes but did i do it because uh i think it was the on the broad strokes the right thing to do yeah so you would take a little friction and so you know if i needed to basically turn over all my kids you know social media or there was a mechanism where you know you know as much as we try to teach our kids you know all of these other things that that allow us to make a socially progressive society if the guidance counselor also sat around and asked these kids anonymously hey is there anybody in your class you think needs your help why don't you do that too um there's there is friction because that that i think we're all willing to take because the counterfactual is too horrible to bear and this is an example of one of those things would you be in favor of insurance and training chema i or the assault rifles i don't i think these are good ideas okay i don't think they will curb the issue i do think what david said is right there's a level of evil or mental illness in these people that caused them to be incredibly methodical and i think that

SPEAKER_390: we shouldn't underestimate so they would get through the insurance screen they get to the training screen

SPEAKER_215: well i think i think you know look there's a lot of people that drive cars without insurance right

Chamath Palihapitiya: it's you can drive you can be insured and you know so i think that those are good ideas jason where it will falter is we have a political system where the primaries for both sides are dictated by the looniest 10 of the left and the right yeah we got a vote in our primary it makes practical gun control just like abortion an impossible task unless we completely turn our

SPEAKER_215: political class upside down on both sides of the aisle okay so i think these are good ideas but in

Chamath Palihapitiya: the meantime i think parents have to do something because nobody's coming to our aid and i think this the most important thing we can do is just say the truth out loud there is an identifiable archetype

SPEAKER_401: i mean we should profile these kids we should profile them there's no doubt there the politicians

SPEAKER_24: who are making this about lawful gun ownership they're not helping they're they're actually hurting because you're activating millions of americans who lawfully own guns and believe in the second amendment to oppose reasonable measures like like i'm saying hyper targeted measures like these red flag laws right and so if we make the whole issue about gun ownership in general you're not going to get any

SPEAKER_403: reasonable changes you're going to get the opposite the sales go up the sales go up every time we have

Chamath Palihapitiya: this happen my kids and i'm sure your kids as well have now uh gone through multiple active shooter drills in our school yep but at no point have my kids been sat down and taught some of the warning signs of their fellow classmates and a mechanism to raise their hand and say you know what this is actually really worrisome here they don't have that training they do have training on how to lock the door how to flip a desk how to go into a closet which is a horrible thing to have to teach a child but if we're already there i just say take the extra step and teach the kids because they're living on instagram and tick tock every day they see their friends and their you know classmates every day and we need to start figuring out an early warning system because what is happening continues to happen these politicians are ineffective they do nothing to help parents right it's true i i like i like the early warning system

SPEAKER_24: because you're right like they're so so first of all the the red flag laws are something that's done on a state-by-state basis something like 19 states have red flag laws including new york but it didn't work in new york with the buffalo shooter because gotta be federal no one used the system no i don't

SPEAKER_58: think it has to be federal i just think that people actually i think people just have to use the system so you had in the buffalo shooter the kid was referred for psychiatric treatment and they still didn't red flag him that's just bonkers so people have to the school systems have to learn how to use these laws we and so to jamal's point we need an early warning system we need that translating into red flags that go on someone's record and then they can't buy guns after that it's it's really simple at least till maybe they turn 30 or something um i mean it's it's um the the the problem is that

SPEAKER_207: about half the states don't have this mechanism and then the half that do aren't using it effectively

SPEAKER_274: enough i just shared with you guys a chart the the the the most pernicious part of this debate and i think this is a pretty solid debate we had here so thank you to the gentleman for all participating in it um is every time we have one of these gun sales spike if you look at the chart in the new york times i just shared a nick you can you can share it on the youtube channel uh two million guns in

SPEAKER_124: the january after obama's re-election the sandy hook shooting we hit peak guns obviously during coronavirus people got scared and bought a bunch of guns after september 11th they bought a lot of guns but these moments are sadly going to drive a 15 set because all the conversation is about

SPEAKER_290: banning guns yes and what we should be doing is preventing psychos from getting guns known

Chamath Palihapitiya: controls reasonable gun control increased by 50 percent in the last 10 years the last 10 years have

SPEAKER_215: been the safest 10 years in our lifetime yet for some reason people feel the need to arm themselves more and more and more now i as an immigrant into this country accept the rules of the country that i come to there's a constitution there's a second amendment i respect people's rights to own gun

Chamath Palihapitiya: i've held a gun why once in my life i had a panic attack and i had to put it down i had to so it's not for me okay um but i respect your right to have them um i think that we need to teach people how to think about the precursors before they get the hold of these things really sadly uh

SPEAKER_179: what's killing our kids um it turns out i just put a i just put the tweet in the chat for you guys to

SPEAKER_38: take a look at new england journal of medicine massive uptick uh now guns deaths um combined it's

SPEAKER_274: all gun deaths includes gangs includes suicide uh and includes mass shootings um but firearm related

SPEAKER_283: deaths and injuries now exceeds motor vehicle crashes and so does opioids so we have a crisis after at

SPEAKER_197: new england journal of medicine just to be very honest it's no it's not necessarily only about

Chamath Palihapitiya: kids because they included 18 and 19 year olds in that chart sure so those are adults okay young

SPEAKER_38: adults and kids um and so drug overdoses and firearm related are spiking massively this is my point about

SPEAKER_197: having this debate this is being armed by the by the left and then the right says well hold on it

Chamath Palihapitiya: doesn't include 18 and then everybody gets caught in that hole absolutely the shooting these shootings

SPEAKER_124: are being done by people 18 19 but putting all this aside i just want to make a bigger point about our children in the last two years with this covet the spike occurred during covet of drug overdoses and firearms so there's a lot of suicide in here as well so we should think holistically about

SPEAKER_202: you know how kids are dying let me add one other thing to that which is we have plenty of gun laws

SPEAKER_24: on the books that aren't enforced right now in san francisco you can't get chaser budine to enforce

SPEAKER_58: a gun charge he uh a young kid named kelvin chu got killed because his his killer a guy named zion young he was arrested weeks before on gun charges and chaser budine just let him go and in uh la with gascone he's dropped all gun enhancements to charges the whole the whole thing is

SPEAKER_425: prosecutors who aren't even prosecuting the gun laws we got on the books that's got to change and

SPEAKER_283: and ted cruz thinks this is about the back door being unlocked i mean the the stupidity across the

SPEAKER_274: board left to right everybody in between the competence is stunning and it has to stop yeah but

SPEAKER_24: jake out look i mean if you make this about people's lawful gun ownership they're going to oppose what you want to do we got to make it well there has to be some incremental controls don't you agree there has to be some control the controls are basically preventing known psychos

SPEAKER_38: from getting weapons okay so you want to focus on that but to be clear no additional gun control for you background checks or anything or background checks why not i just want to be clear red flag laws

SPEAKER_111: and background checks are good i know we have to wrap i think the consensus was around red flag there's a known profile chamath articulated it well david i don't think we helped the cause to build the consensus by calling a sick 16 year old kid struggling with self-identity a psycho and because they're they're kids who live all around us this isn't about lecture this is about building consensus i think we can profile those folks they clearly have psychotic uh uh challenges right but there is

SPEAKER_112: intervention to help these kids i know a lot of kids who frankly had challenges during high school who turned out to be great great human beings so these are kids at a very vulnerable age we should profile them within the community social networks should help us identify these folks and we should

SPEAKER_115: get them help and i think you can build a reasonable consensus around that yeah i agree just to explain

SPEAKER_24: myself um i'm by when i use the word psycho i'm referring to the the ones who actually became shooters you know i'm referring to those ones um you're right that if we're talking about people who

SPEAKER_126: haven't done anything yet who are mentally ill yes we should get them help so i mean mental illness

SPEAKER_38: you know this is and this goes to health care as well we should have national mental health services available freely to every american we are in a mental health crisis between covid and just modern life and suicide is becoming the number one cause of death sadly for many um demographics now including our kids and so while we do a great job making cars safer and creating life-saving drugs and and emergency rooms and and medical attention has gotten unbelievable and we're making all these

SPEAKER_283: uh you know great advances mental health we're not making the advances we need i'm so so so sorry to

SPEAKER_406: all those families yeah this is just heartbreaking i get emotional yeah but i'm just so sorry for all

SPEAKER_442: those people dealing with it it's heartbreaking yeah yeah heartbreaking let's take some action here

SPEAKER_41: enough with the thoughts and prayers let's actually come up with a plan and just i've been profiled

Chamath Palihapitiya: for years i put up with it sorry for the indignity it's okay i said uh my honest perspective is there's a clustering and a technology component to this that can meaningfully help and we need to start knowing that there are these patterns we need to say the words out loud there are patterns for these school

SPEAKER_215: shooters for these mass shooters those patterns can be written down they have been written down and we need to do something about it they need to be codified in some form of algorithms and if

SPEAKER_315: we've already taught our kids how to duck and hide i think we can also teach our kids how to raise their hand well before they need to learn to duck and identify who's being bullied and into your point

SPEAKER_254: chamath about being profiled if we profile somebody and they're not a mass shooter candidate but they're just depressed or they're being bullied well that's vert that they deserve help as well so there's no downside to profiling somebody who's struggling you're profiling them with the intent of getting them help so let's just profile the kids who are struggling profile them for good

SPEAKER_61: and you'll catch some you know who's struggling a priori my point is that you actually oh well

SPEAKER_274: they're being bullied they're going to probably be struggling i mean you know the kids getting

Chamath Palihapitiya: going psychographic and demographic profiles of the 99 of the cases that we've seen over the last two decades and all i'm encouraging politicians and technology companies to do is come together create some standard you know what's the downside what's the downside none zero you have mechanisms like this by the way where um you know these technology companies already do these kinds of profiles on other kinds of situations you know typically you need a physio request and other kinds of like legal interventions in order to unlock this data but it's not as if this is uh you know antithetical to what they do in other situations they certainly do it for fraud in advertising it's not as if the technological prowess of these companies cannot be applied to a k-means clustering of this issue okay just to use a simple machine learning context like this is they put a lot of effort into

SPEAKER_454: finding click fraud right this is going to be a very similar problem yeah we don't allow angry young men

SPEAKER_115: who've been emailing with the middle east who are citizens of this country who've been posting online that they want to run a plane into a building to go get their pilot's license right we profile them after september 11th and we said no moss and all chamath is saying is use your common sense

SPEAKER_271: identify these folks that we know are struggling to need help and put them on a list and say they

SPEAKER_41: can't buy an assault weapon period yeah all right everybody it's time to go uh thank you uh to uh

SPEAKER_274: brad kirstner for sitting in uh thanks again to the dictator chamath polyhapitida and uh thanks sax and thanks to everybody who uh spoke at the all-in summit we've been um releasing all of the videos freeberg will be back next week as well the homer lucky explosive episode so look for

SPEAKER_462: a great week of all-in content next week we'll see you all next time bye