SPEAKER_00: all right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world it's the all-in podcast david sachs couldn't make it this week but we have the trio david freeberg is here your sultan of science jamaht palya apatia spacex filed confidentially to go public on april 1st

SPEAKER_01: targeting a 1.75 trillion with the t valuation when spacex goes public if it's at that 1.75 trillion dollar valuation so weird to say trillion dollar valuation for an ipm they would be the eighth largest company in the world right behind tsmc and saudi aramco they're both worth 1.7x at the taping of this podcast tesla is number 10 with 1.37 trillion dollar valuation hey if you were to combine those two as many people are speculating will happen at some point and you can buy the stock ticker elon that would be a 3.1 trillion dollar company and that would make them the fourth largest company ahead of microsoft they're aiming to raise chomath 75 billion which would be the by far the biggest raise ever in an ipo uh expected to go

SPEAKER_03: out in june i think they were trying to hit the 420 date because that would have been even more hilarious but uh they're not going to be able to do that spacex uh recently acquired x.ai for 250 billion that includes x and twitter and the xai large language model ai company starlink generating between 50 and 80 percent of spacex's revenue will have all those details shortly um and it'll be close to 20 billion dollars a year according to reports launch of rockets is the other 40 percent of the business 5 billion in 2024 according to reports total revenue 2025 15 to 16

SPEAKER_00: billion with 8 billion in profit according to reuters so let's stop there uh and we're going to talk about all the other ipos that could be coming uh chomath i think people really want to know

SPEAKER_04: and you may have mentioned this on an earlier episode what are the chances that tesla after if this ipo goes well that tesla and spacex could wind up being the same company we saw they're collaborating

SPEAKER_07: 100 percent on a fan 100 is what you're putting it on okay okay sorry let me let me be clear 99.999

SPEAKER_10: okay what will that mean when if those two companies or when those two companies merge one of the great

SPEAKER_14: things that happened in my career was there was a point where you know how like you grind at a level and then you know you just get exposed to things at a different level and then you grind for years and you get exposed to things at yet another level in one of those steps i was very fortunate to be introduced by thomas lafont actually to the head of wachtel lipton there's a law firm law firm and his name is ed hurley and he said this is the most important well-known well-run powerful law firm in america then i looked at the transactions and they're just in the middle of everything and now you know my lawyer raj narayan who does everything for me one of the senior partners at wachtel i can attest are incredible and they said to me in the middle of all of this stuff when i was doing a bunch of deals they said just get ready to pay a tax and i said what does that mean they said the way that the american capital markets are set up is both that you can be incredibly creative and do incredible things but and we talked about this a little bit last week there's a bunch of tort that allows folks to hang around the hoop and get paid no matter what you see this in all ipos shareholder lawsuits abound and they try to create a class out of it and the reason they do that is that there's dno insurance that then will pay out some number of millions of dollars the attorneys take 40 or 50 percent and then these plaintiffs get a few bucks you saw how egregious this tort manipulation was when this guy with 10 shares sued elon's comp package at tesla and won and what was that really that was the trial lawyers trying to get paid hundreds of millions of dollars by exploiting a scene it was a shakedown why am i bringing this up if you take the the raj and ed example of this this spacex ipo is going to set up a couple of things the first is there it's going to be the natural noise in the market and elon will have to sort through all of the little ticky tacky things but the most important positive thing that will happen from the ipo is a validated external mark to market valuation of spacex and the market every day in real time gives you a valid mark to market

Chamath Palihapitiya: assessment of the value of tesla and this allows you to put these two things together to minimize these losses and i think that that's what elon really needs it'll make his life tremendously simpler from a governance perspective it'll make the companies and this quibbling about his time a non-issue because

SPEAKER_14: again nobody talks about zuck or satya or sundar or jensen allocating time across various projects inside of

Chamath Palihapitiya: meta or google or microsoft or nvidia nor should they really make this claim from elon because as you're seeing there's actually an enormous overlap and commonality to the various things that he is doing he's building the robots but they're used inside of spacex he's building a terafab they're used inside of tesla he's building xai they're used across both so i think we need to do this it'll minimize the shareholder noise because it'll give less room to somebody that says hey he set a valuation out of

SPEAKER_17: thin air well but dollars to donuts these things are going to merge and it speaks to the singularity

SPEAKER_00: that's going on right now you know you had a car company you had a space company okay that was a pretty how do those two things overlap and it's like ai data centers in space where do you get chips from and then actually going to raw materials inside of one factory going out the other and having discussed it with elon many times when he learned you know at tesla or spacex about advanced materials informed different products at the different companies and now you just you'll have all of that in one place and then you think about the brain trust that he built at those two companies plus boring company plus neural link if they're all in there all this cross-disciplinary learning is going to compound and compound and compound elon knows more about factories than probably anybody anybody like any people in china who have you know foxconn knows a lot about factories you know so there are some people who know as much or probably even a little bit more about some aspects of it but that's a true advantage of bringing those two teams together and you saw it people would go from one company to the other freeberg my question for you very acutely with your nasa hat and uh you know your your background today is 20 years ago he started trying to get to space with spacex and

SPEAKER_01: here we go there's more rockets going off in a month now than there are days in the month for the for the entire country and he's got rockets going up every two or three days you can just basically hop

SPEAKER_04: on a spacex flight and get to space maybe you could just use your vision there to tell the audience what could things look like in another 20 years if spacex continues at this cadence or

SPEAKER_22: even you know goes faster because of ai well this week's a pretty important milestone for that point because we just launched artemis 2 yesterday which is man's returning to the moon so the united states shipped this rocket with four astronauts on board they're going to do an orbit around the earth head to the moon come back around and come back to earth in anticipation of landing on the moon in about two years and getting to the moon i think is going to be very important not just because there's this important social milestone and race happening on right now with china but i think the moon could end up being kind of the next industrial frontier for humanity and the reason is if you can get to the moon the moon has an extraordinary abundance of material that we can mine process and manufacture into goods and ultimately the cost to ship those goods back to the earth is zero it will cost less to move goods manufactured goods processed or uh precious metals from the moon to a specific point on earth it will cost less to do that than to ship it using any other terrestrial conventional method whether that's a boat an airplane or a railroad and the reason is that on the moon you can take advantage of the low gravity it's about one-sixth the gravity and the complete lack of an atmosphere meaning that it's frictionless to move material off of the moon and very low energy to move it off of the moon you do not need to use a rocket propellant with high energy like we have to do to move things off of the earth in fact the design for moving material off of the moon is to use what's called a mass driver which is like a train track like a rail like an electric rail you kind of see these in you know high-speed trains that work on kind of magnetic levitation and you could put a package on that rail and use electricity to accelerate that package to 100 g-force shoot it back to the earth or theoretically shoot it to mars and it will go to the exact point on the earth you want it to go to re-enters the atmosphere and lands with a simple parachute where you want it to go so we could run continuous mining continuous manufacturing processes on the moon at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to do it here on earth the biggest limiting factor getting people to the moon and that is largely solved or will be solved in the next few years by robotics so i think that there's this pretty profound intersection with what's going on in robotics with this moment for space industrialization and moving to the moon so you know tesla i think 20 years from now is actually a more interesting story whether they're the same independent company or the same company i think we're going to look back one day and have this kind of laughing observation that tesla started out as an electric car company 100 ended up becoming an autonomous car company and the autonomous competency is what led to the robotics revolution and the robotics revolution even if the socialists ban robotics on earth and tell us no robots allowed they're taking all the jobs you could ship all those robots to the moon and they could get to work and create an entirely new manufacturing frontier for our civilization for humanity that frontier can manufacture precious metals and other goods and ship them back you could manufacture semiconductors on the moon all that's missing is the robots so moving the robots to the moon or setting up the materials for robots to build themselves on the moon is kind of the first phase of this transition you know asking about 20 years from now and then the next phase is building us all out so look i mean i think that this may not be and it certainly won't be limited to just spacex but spacex is demonstrating its capacity at being effectively the railroads you know what the railroads were to the west and to the frontier in the west you know in the last generation spacex will be to the moon and ultimately to mars and there's going to be an extraordinary abundance of production that's going to come out of the moon the moon has everything by the way and i'll say one more thing about spacex spacex has also created and this is going to be a big part of the valuation analysis that many are doing they've created a backup to the internet you know the internet is fundamentally limited by all of the nodes on the network and the connectivity amongst all those nodes and that connectivity is largely driven by copper and fiber optic cable so in space with the number of satellites going up with starlink and to actually deploy data centers that can output data on those nodes on that network spacex has largely built a backup internet and that backup internet can coincide with the earth's internet but it creates this extraterrestrial communication network that gives us theoretically the ability to think about hey if governments collapse if there's civilizational upheaval etc etc etc this becomes i think a fundamentally kind of important technology infrastructure that's going to exist in parallel so i'm pretty excited about like these two separate paths for spacex and where they intersect with tesla

SPEAKER_00: i think it's pretty profound at the moment yeah it can't be understated what lowering the cost per

SPEAKER_04: kilogram to get to space has done to entrepreneurs around the company there's multiple entrepreneurs who are now doing asteroid mining or varda doing experimentation in space and i have a i've been doing some late stage stuff to mop with my syndicate and one of the interesting companies we syndicated we we did zip line which is a great company but we also did this company called vast vast space uh jed is the founder he he created uh ripple and uh and and some other crypto projects and

SPEAKER_00: he put a lot of his money hundreds of millions of dollars into this company vast space and they're designing a space station how did they do it well they just bought carriage on spacex rockets and they paid in advance they have their slot and now they're doing this massive innovation to make modular space station components here's what i'll and the thesis is hey what if google or amazon want to have

SPEAKER_29: a space station in space you know it's completely possible they may want that here's what i'll say i

SPEAKER_30: think sometimes it's better to be lucky than good there are all of these ways that so many people will

SPEAKER_32: end up with participation into spacex i think we all owe elon an enormous thanks i think that this

SPEAKER_14: is going to unleash just an unbelievably large economy of things that we have no idea about and when i see

SPEAKER_17: this thing that video that you just showed what it reminds me is that we have a very rudimentary

SPEAKER_14: capability in space what does that mean if you take if you catch a ride on falcon 9 or falcon heavy basically it's dropping you off at 550 kilometers i think you have a different problem if you're trying to get to geo but even if you get dropped off at 500 or 550 how do you get to your actual orbital plane right so meaning if you think of elon as like the big container ships that go from china to america once it gets to long beach you need fedex there's an entire infrastructure there that's going to get all of this logistics built last mile there's a huge garbage collection problem that's getting built up we still haven't technically solved how to do garbage collection in space there's nets there's magnetic plates all of that is getting fixed then there's going to be an explosion in actual power generation the cell composition of solar cells up in space are materially different it's a really incredible thing you look at these thin sheets they are like one millimeter thick you if you carried it on your hand the glass breaks yet you can smash a meteor into it when it's laid and laminated and nothing happens it's like the it's like so my point is in every single dimension of what the earthly economy looks like it's now going to go and get rebuilt in space there will be a fedex of space there'll be immersed of space there'll be a i don't know what the garbage collection companies are allied waste of space there's going to be everything of space that

Chamath Palihapitiya: exists in the united states freeberg just talked about the freeport macaran of space like everything and that we owe to him yeah and i hope he gets that credit because the amount of businesses i think that

SPEAKER_14: can get created and the amount of value that will be created on top of spacex's shoulders is vast it's the beginning of the beginning of the beginning and it's going to create enormous opportunities for

SPEAKER_04: people who are smart and resourceful and freeberg maybe you could comment on the pgms the palladium that's on asteroids and just they're rare here on earth if we had an unlimited supply or a continuous

SPEAKER_00: supply of those minerals you know what what could the downstream effect of that be and then what if we find things in space that we are unaware of there are unknown unknowns correct freeberg when you start

SPEAKER_22: to conceptualize this i do think like the asteroid mining is an interesting concept but i do think it's going to be more likely that we'll have the need for infrastructure so we can produce ores and refine and so on versus you know bringing chunky rock back i think that you could do this very effectively on the moon the primary elements that are missing from the moon that we have on the earth are you know carbon nitrogen hydrogen and oxygen basically these things that make life on earth but that's because they primarily exist in a gaseous form and the earth has enough gravity to retain those gases and have an atmosphere the moon is too small to maintain an atmosphere the gravity is too little so those gases all kind of went away they evaporated away in the early formation of the earth and the moon but on the moon there's everything else there's aluminum there's silicon there's palladium there's platinum there's gold there's everything you possibly need so i think as we do the calculus on all of this we'll end up realizing that the moon is probably the best frontier one of the biggest issues is dissipating heat because you don't have an atmosphere but theoretically you could recapture that heat and use like helium gas or something to turn a turbine and actually run production of even more electricity you just put a couple solar panels out i did the math on this it's like 500 square meters of solar panels will let you run a four kilometer mass driver to ship material back to the earth every 10 to 15 minutes one ton of material every 10 to 15 minutes on the sled you described earlier that elon's been talking about as well yeah so you could think about having autonomous mining vehicles deployed on the moon processing the ore and then sending completely processed material back and then for a heat shield for re-entry to the earth you just use moon rock you only need about 15 centimeters of moon rock at the front of the package and then that'll burn up when it re-enters the atmosphere and the package you know kind of parachutes down and lands where you want it to land in your industrial shipyard or whatever so there's just like you know i think we'll we'll continue to kind of iterate on

SPEAKER_49: this i'm speculating in a bunch of different ways the beginning of the beginning gosh i mean can you imagine having a moon base in america like like yeah well imagine jake like permanently present on the

SPEAKER_04: moon is just and factories on the moon it's just wild wild can you guys just imagine like the middle

SPEAKER_50: or the early 19th century like the late 1700s early 1800s in america and there's like all this land out

SPEAKER_22: on the west and like whatever people were contemplating in that moment about what they were going to go do with that land on the west and they started to travel west their minds would have been blown to see what happened 100 years later we're now 150 years later you know like it's just that's the moment that we're at right now and the railroads are being built to get us to this next great frontier they're being laid out before us and the opportunity is really limited only by our imagination and before we would have never been able to tackle these great frontiers but this magical new technology came about called robots and these robots are going to allow us to actually make use of these frontiers and explore them and develop them and that's why this is such an incredible moment where this intersection of autonomy and robotics and space traversal kind of drive forward humanity into this new era and it's again this is not a zero-sum game this is expanding humanity's potential expanding production which is so different than the way the socialists on earth are talking about it where everyone's fighting against progress zero-sum game because they think that progress is some people taking things from other people and the truth is it's about everyone building stuff that's new and everyone benefiting from this i'm going to open a hotel casino in the space

SPEAKER_54: we go that'd be so serious yeah absolutely you think it's funny but i am i would love that yeah

SPEAKER_10: and then uh no rake no rake no gravity no rake no gravity no rake no gravity no tax no tax

SPEAKER_30: no tax or winnings i love it whoever implements the red light district in space is going to become

SPEAKER_52: a trillioner oh wow that's yeah with the robotics and the uh pleasure droids replicants oh man it

SPEAKER_04: could get crazy all right well let's just hope you're we're not the donner party on the way there um

SPEAKER_30: 2026 don't worry you'll be you'll be safely on the ground

SPEAKER_65: um schlepping syndicates you'll be fine i'll tell you something uh thank you shout out the syndicate.com i'm glad to join me in great companies do you listen i'm still working you

SPEAKER_67: guys might be retired but i'm in the game i'm in the arena trying things i'm selling i'm selling

SPEAKER_71: enterprise software every day that's what i mean he literally tremont said hey jake can we wrap this up real quick because i got to get on a sales call i got a discovery call listen i like the fact that we're all working we're working into our 50s i love it hey 2026 could be an all-time record for

SPEAKER_01: ipos looks like it will be anthropic open ai databricks i mean these are all nine and possibly 10 figure ipos in terms of the valuations long tail of other companies uh stripe cerebrus canva uh discord lots of people waiting here's your poly market spacex 94 obviously that looks like it's uh we just talked about that for 20 minutes anthropic 41 and people are saying 70 in february open ai 38 data breaks 32 people are wondering what could um derail this obviously we we have a very pro

SPEAKER_04: business group of people in washington dc but you have potentially this uh iran war we'll talk about that later in the program could potentially push us back if god forbid it was a spiral or there was a

SPEAKER_03: recession uh maybe the democrats you know taking control of congress senate etc what are your thoughts here on the flurry of potential ipos we're talking about trillions of dollars of companies chamop and if that does happen let's start talking second and third order impact of of that kind of distribution chain that could happen for lps and then just also all these employees uh you know and

SPEAKER_04: then a currency for these companies will go from a mag 7 to a mag 17 it looks like i think that we have

SPEAKER_32: a bit of a risk problem and i think this is why it makes so much sense for elon to get out first if you think about appetite as equivalent to like a person at a thanksgiving dinner when you first come in

SPEAKER_14: and you see all of this stuff it's so plentiful your eyes are bigger than your stomach and i think in a moment like that you want to be the one that is consumed first and i think the risk increases when you are at the tail end because the risk is that the diners will run out of space and if you place that fills up yeah and if you use that analogy i think the reason why people's plates will get full are probably twofold and maybe threefold the first and most important thing is there's enough tactical event risk that people generally want to be risk off and have more margin of safety i think the iran thing is kind of in there but i think the big tactical event risk is that we have a lot of these really important financial moments tied to this concept of agi asi i don't know if you saw the open ai announcement on their final terms but you know a huge slug of amazon's capital is tied to a 2028 ipo or a moment that calls for this then there was a bunch of leaked text messages or whatever that said that there's a version of some agi running inside of anthropic then there was the fact that you know the leak of claude code basically demonstrated that they had feature flagged away a bunch of improvements so if you stack up all these improvements they're actually much further ahead than the models realize if you take all of that as a basket it goes back to what i said last week which is we have a real pricing problem if agi is real the durability of most companies is slim to none if agi is not real then the fundraising capacity of these companies that are now raising hundreds of billions of dollars needs to get questioned and inspected thoroughly history will sort out which one is right but both cannot be right so in that vein i actually think jacal i don't think we're going to have like these quote unquote blockbuster stream of ipos i think what happens is spacex is going to get out they're going to do great and then maybe the next one does good to great then the next one will do good and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand and if you think about it where is it going to come from is it going to come from the sidelines i don't know i think it's more of a reallocation exercise but if you look at the s p well most people are now defensively moving away from these kinds of things towards the things that are more protected what the industry calls halo right high asset low obsolescence kind of businesses those things trade for zero today jason you could buy hundreds of millions of dollars a year of cash flow for two to five times right now in the stock market and so why are you going to go way out on the risk

SPEAKER_86: curve and buy something at 200 times revs let alone earnings yeah the the so i don't know i'm i'm more

SPEAKER_14: in the camp of i think it's good to be first it's pretty decent to be second but if i were you i would get the heck out and get public and get your money and fortify your balance sheet asap because i think the

SPEAKER_06: the risk builds the further down the ipo chain you're in yeah there's going to be a competition

SPEAKER_00: for investor dollars whether it's retail or it's institutional or sovereign wealth funds they're going to have a lot of choices here do you want to be in nvidia do you want to be in spacex maybe you have to rotate out of amazon or google or disney in order to take on those opportunities and that's going to be a great competition probably we could see a lot of these ipos friedberg trade below their ipo price in the year or two after

SPEAKER_28: they come out and get repriced yeah like we've seen before i think the market's going to need to find a

SPEAKER_22: price remember the share owners in a lot of these companies have held on to these shares for a long period of time and the valuations are extraordinary i mean hundreds of billions of dollars in market value coming to market liquid for the first time some of these investors regardless of whatever their entry price was are going to be looking for liquidity so there's only so much capital to absorb those shares on the buy side meaning if the buyers and the bid is not there to fulfill all of the selling then you're going to see the share price decline and the market's going to find a price and so i i think this idea that like an ipo is you know just a step in driving the price or value of a company up is a pretty false sense and i think we'll realize it's pretty false as some of these ipos take place because there is so much pent-up selling demand there is so much value that's been graded there's going to be so much selling pressure and then there's going to be very little buying activity on some of these because anyone that could have bought at scale on the buy side post public we're already in a lot of these companies pre-public as private companies and so i don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's expecting her to show up they're probably thinking hey it's gonna be retail retail yeah but how much

SPEAKER_04: money does retail have left i mean you if you look at retail investors they have a certain amount of powder and it's probably deployed it's not like they have unlimited places to look for that and you

SPEAKER_01: know there's some evidence of this bloomberg bloomberg ran an article on wednesday we tape on thursday folks and you get to listen to the pot on fridays open ai is falling out of favor with secondary buyers according to a report open ai investors can't find buyers at the new 850 billion dollar valuation that shamanth referenced earlier investors bloomberg spoke to are looking to sell 600 million dollars worth of shares people are looking for liquidity and said they were institutional investors anthropic currently valued at 300 billion is seeing major secondary bids at

SPEAKER_04: a 600 billion valuation so i think chamath what this shows us is you're correct they're you know open ai and anthropic are the two next cards that's your turn in river folks if spacex is the flop

SPEAKER_00: and maybe they're massively overvalued right now maybe they're three four five hundred million billion dollar companies not trillion dollar companies and if you look at the amount of revenue 24 billion for uh open ai at 852 billion that's 35 times price to sales ratio and that is a absurd price

SPEAKER_04: to sales ratio depending on if the growth keeps happening and as you reference chamath what if we

SPEAKER_00: are at artificial general intelligence agi and the moats on these things is de minimis or or there is no moat anthropic just got hacked all their secrets are out somebody transmuted the code into another language posted it on github can't be stopped i don't know if you saw that story freeberg but this is kind of mind-blowing somebody took the anthropic code i don't know what it was written in and then basically

SPEAKER_01: just put it into another language reposted it if anthropic comes and says hey you can't do that well that negates their argument chamath that they're allowed to train on other people's data and then spit out a different output so this is a very weird moment in time right it is i think you're you're

SPEAKER_30: bringing up a bunch of different points so let me just sort them out in the order that i think is important is there a market for open ai at 800 billion yes and there should be when i read that press release my mind was blown this is a i've never seen a business like this and i'd say the same thing

SPEAKER_14: of anthropic what an incredible thing that both of these two companies have been able to create nobody in the history of the world has ever seen two businesses like this at this scale okay it's unbelievable these are trillion dollar companies they both are and they both deserve to be how profitable they are i don't know what their terminal valuation is i don't know what will people pay for an ipo i don't know but nick i just shared something with you these two companies need to get out as quickly as possible and the reason is every single company that comes after it all those companies that you just named jason are not nearly as important and do not need the money nearly as badly as these guys do and where will it come from the specific answer to your question when you look at this chart is the tech sector pe is going to shrink faster in my opinion than the non-tech pe and the reason is because as these companies come out the combination of spacex open ai and anthropic all three are baking an ai technology that first and foremost will go after the tech sector it will eliminate and it will cannibalize and it will erode most of the moats that support this differential trading so if i were a betting man my first bet is as those three companies come out these software businesses are going to approach the rest of the non-tech pe okay that's the first step that has to happen so the rate of change of of the multiple erosion will basically say to the world hey these tech companies are i don't know i'll buy the first five or six years of this story but i'm not buying year 15 of this anymore because these three guys are going to build something so that's where the money comes from that's why i think after spacex these two guys need to get their act together file quickly get out and just get the money fortify their balance sheets and be in a position everything that happens after that is a total coin toss because once these three companies are public i think the blue line will converge to the orange line and it's going to be nasty yeah freeberg just

SPEAKER_04: looking at this do you believe that secondary market is a canary in the coal mine here with open ai

SPEAKER_00: because if we we've and we've gone through this year after year here these are exceptional businesses they've grown incredible customers love their products but the burn is brutal the circular financing problem is still out there like what's reality here and that's going to all come out when these s1s get filed and they're publicly traded companies and they have quarterly earnings reports market share

SPEAKER_01: for these could be flipping anthropic and gemini other players coming into the market

SPEAKER_96: what are your thoughts here on uh anthropic and open ai post the spacex ipo like i said there's only

SPEAKER_22: so much capital in the world so i do think one of the things that's probably being underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch that's ahead for capital intensive technology businesses given the conflict in the middle east i don't think that qatar and certain saudi offices and certain offices in uae and oman are as eager as they were or you know have been to provide large slugs of capital to support these initiatives and remember that capital moves its way through the markets whether it's through jp morgan and a loan to soft bank which then gets paid to open ai at the end of the day there has to be unencumbered debt-free capital that's being provided to these systems from somewhere in the world and if you trace all of it back like a large chunk of it has historically in the last couple of years come from middle east sovereigns and family offices and i think that those are likely going to tighten up in the near term that being the case is probably less demand i do think that there's a lot of secondary demand coming from family offices in europe and singapore places like that that that generally have not had great access or early stage access to private companies but at some point there's only so much demand there so i don't know like how far this is going to go or when this capital crunch that's going to emerge i think from the middle east i don't think we've really felt the shock wave yet on what's happening because remember a lot of these middle east capital commitments were made in the last cycle as lp commitments or whatever and you know if they stop if they downscale lp commitments or they stop doing primary and secondary transactions you know it takes a little bit of time before the market feels that and then it's like oh the reliable go to are gone and a lot of the big funds the the mega funds that are out there totally that have middle east lps are gone and suddenly everyone's gonna be like whoa and the shockwave will hit so let's see it is a risk for the united states because china i don't think is going to be as challenged we're so dependent on middle east capital but maybe that

SPEAKER_111: china has a capital advantage actually maybe going into this yeah i mean and we talked about force

SPEAKER_04: major i don't know come into play here if this surrounding spirals god forbid out of control or it gets worse people could say you know what we're going to downscale our commitments and hey

SPEAKER_17: there's a war so we don't have to find the markets i think the markets have shaked that off jason i don't think that they they view this iran thing as a big thing i think the big event risk in the market is is ai real or not real and if it's real what are all of these companies worth that is the big sort

SPEAKER_113: of damocles over the stock market yeah all right well that's a good segue i think into talking a bit about iran we took the week off from it last week and we're going to catch up by the way not because we

SPEAKER_22: just to be clear not because we intended to which all the comments railed us on but we literally jason did a terrible job moderating it was on the friggin docket we were supposed to talk about it we

SPEAKER_129: didn't get to it and we went right out it's clearly my fault um he dm beat it he you know it's like

SPEAKER_130: yeah i'm just protecting trump i'm out here getting cover for trump's mistakes everybody knows i'm in

SPEAKER_133: the pocket of president like take a ticket take a ticket oh you have an issue okay well you're issue

SPEAKER_134: number 17. trump dm'd me and said can you please take this off the docket i was like you got a bus

SPEAKER_01: and then you're like oh sorry office is closed come back tomorrow today is day 34 of the iran war slash military operation trump addressed the nation wednesday night for a brisk 18 minutes here's

SPEAKER_138: a 40 second clip we're now totally independent of the middle east and yet we are there to help we don't have to be there we don't need their oil we don't need anything they have but we're there to help our allies for years everyone has said that iran cannot have nuclear weapons but in the end those are just words if you're not willing to take action when the time comes our objectives are very simple and clear we are systematically dismantling the regime's ability to threaten america or project power outside of their borders and tonight i'm pleased to say that

SPEAKER_141: these core strategic objectives are nearing completion all right the costs here are mounting

SPEAKER_93: war is a very serious business 13 american service members have tragically died over 200 have been injured on the other side of the ledger 3 500 iranians have died including 1600 civilians and over 200

SPEAKER_143: children 1200 people in lebanon have died from israeli strikes and we now have 50 000 troops deployed to the middle east chances of a ground invasion are increasing war has cost 70 billion dollars so far that's assuming 2 billion dollars a day which there seems to be consensus on via the department of war pentagon has asked congress for another 200 billion dollars to put that in context the war in ukraine was 113 billion dollars in the first year this could quickly exceed it when we hit 50 days this isn't

SPEAKER_04: cheap there are lots of costs here's uh your poly market on a ceasefire 25 chance of a ceasefire by

SPEAKER_139: the end of april 47 chance by the end of may the sharps are thinking this could wrap up but ground invasion

SPEAKER_143: which would be just really impactful i think 63 chance by the end of april 71 chance by the end of december we're going to get into the second order effects but what do you think chamath uh this obviously is super unpopular war i think two things and the president kind of alluded to one that i think

SPEAKER_30: is very important which is if you are not energy independent you are at risk and i don't know how many more examples now that world leaders need to be shown to get their acts together so if the ukraine

SPEAKER_14: russian conflict didn't show europe then this should show not just europe but the rest of the world you need to be in control of your own energy infrastructure and energy independence

SPEAKER_17: because stuff happens in the world and you're not always in control or can shape how that stuff can indirectly or directly affect you the united states has energy independence it's an incredible situation what was interesting to me is if you look at europe you know they gutted a couple of their

SPEAKER_14: energy markets and they essentially ceded control to a combination of very expensive imports markets and china they did that in markets like nuclear where they just went out of it they did that in things like nat gas where again we can debate but where did north stream to go we don't know and

SPEAKER_17: they did that in things like solar where they just gutted all of the credits but what's interesting

SPEAKER_14: is they're starting to turn that around i think italy just reintroduced effectively what's called investment tax credits spain just did as well germany is restarting nuclear so if you just look at the the last few months just that change is incredibly important because our largest ally europe should be fundamentally energy independent so that they preserve complete and total optionality like we do in how we respond to these situations that i think i think is a is a critical thing that is a positive outcome of what's happening and then the second jason which i think is a huge question mark and it builds on what freeberg said before the middle eastern states specifically the uae and saudi qatar kuwait they are our most important financing and banking partner in the future and i think we need to see a conclusive end to this war because they need to be in a position to monetize these critical assets because at the same time if you see these big pools of demand start to become energy independent by either accelerating nuclear but again that's just problematic and slow but frankly they're just going to ramp up solar that's the only way that you can dispatch energy quickly i think what that does is it decreases hydrocarbon demand over the long run that then decreases the monetization capacity for these countries so if you put these two things

SPEAKER_17: together all of these folks in the region want safety security and they need a quick end to this thing

SPEAKER_14: now okay and i think that they're more incentivized to put boots on the ground jason than america is

SPEAKER_20: that's the point i was trying to make freeberg let's talk a little bit about fertilizer

SPEAKER_00: you had brought up when we had the start of the ukraine war hey this is the bread basket we could have a massive famine thankfully that was avoided there were carve outs for getting wheat and and other crops out of ukraine but here we are again with a significant amount of fertilizer comes out of that

SPEAKER_04: region and it's not flowing right now do you have concerns this time around that we could see something

SPEAKER_22: similar fertilizer is made up of three elements there's different fertilizers the one element is n for nitrogen p for phosphorus and k for potassium ukraine is the largest producer of the k the potassium the potash but the n in fertilizer is nitrogen and that is about 60 percent of what goes into the ground that's 60 to 65 percent of global fertilizer is the nitrogen that's what really drives agricultural productivity and we need nitrogen fertilizer to grow crops everywhere on earth that we're growing crops to feed people at scale that nitrogen is primarily made where natural gas is produced and processed and the reason is that they use the natural gas as an input to the production process they get the the carbon the hydrogen the oxygen and then they compress remember 70 of our atmosphere is made up of nitrogen gas so they compress the nitrogen in the air to 200 times atmospheric pressure run it over a electrical current with a metal catalyst and you break apart the n2s you have just single nitrogen atoms and then you combine it back and you end up getting ammonia out of the other end that's why nitrogen fertilizers are produced where natural gas is processed so the middle east obviously is a massive producer particularly in catar of natural gas and that's why so much of the world's nitrogen fertilizer is made in the middle east in fact about 35 percent of the world's nitrogen fertilizer goes through the strait of hormuz and it is then shipped to countries around the world that farm and that need it to grow their crops the swing producer in the world is china china historically makes about 15 percent of the world's nitrogen fertilizer and when the war started a few days after it began china shut down exports of their nitrogen fertilizer and so they basically choked out the rest of the world and so when the strait of hormuz shut the nitrogen stopped flowing here you can see the price spike that happened so as the the war began this is urea urea is the solid form of nitrogen fertilizer so urea was trading at about 350 bucks a ton before the the conflict kind of took off and it continues to spike up it reached over 700 a ton in the last two days and this is really really really impactful it's not just like oh the price is double number one there's a supply deficiency so farmers in places like africa and south asia are not getting the urea that they need to farm that is going to have a massive follow-on problem and in markets where they have access because the price has spiked like in the united states our biggest crop is corn you need about 200 pounds of that urea per acre for corn and that cost basically makes you unprofitable there is no way you can make a profitable crop of corn the other thing that china did at the same time is they stopped buying corn so corn prices would normally spike up and corn prices have remained low while the input prices have spiked for american farmers so american farmers are in a real pickle fortunately for this spring planting which is happening right now about two-thirds of american farmers had already secured their fertilizer before the this began but a third did not and they're switching crops typically to soybeans but we have a fall planting coming up in a couple of months here and the choke points on production is going to keep prices very high in the united states we make a lot of our own ammonia at our natural gas facilities in places like oklahoma and texas and wyoming and other places and then it ships directly to the farms but the cost is so high because of the global market that it's going to become very hard for farmers to make a profit and around the world there are many farmers millions and millions of farmers that can't access this fertilizer now so the choke point in the strait of hormuz is turning out to be a real critical global food supply crisis yet again similar to ukraine and remember there's about 400 million people following the ukraine war globally that we saw enter into a state of malnourishment this means more than one year of 1200 calories or less per day for a year 400 million people after ukraine so coming out of this crisis it could be even more severe given the criticality of nitrogen-based fertilizers and the shutdown of the strait let me make two more points on this you would think okay we'll make more nitrogen fertilizer the facilities take at least three to five years to fix when they break which is what just happened in qatar that facility got damaged the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer so that is the largest producer of urea in the world that's now going to be incapacitated for three to five years and if you want to build a new facility takes about seven years all the facilities around the world that make urea and ammonia these nitrogen fertilizers typically run 24 7 365 at full capacity there is no downtime where you can just turn on excess production in the world so you know the world is very delicate in its balance of inputs and food production outputs the whole world has like less than 30 days of food of calories stored up so as these kind of supply chain problems start to percolate there's shock waves that start to get felt around the world so it's a pretty serious crisis ahead and it'll take a few months before it'll be fully realized in the meantime u.s farmers are getting their asses handed to them they can't make money and china is using this as a moment for extraordinary leverage over america and taking advantage of the situation by shutting down exports of their fertilizer and at the same time not buying american

SPEAKER_04: production of corn we probably need friedberg to have some sort of resiliency here and address this like we did with pharmaceuticals ppe all these other things yeah we should have some sort of

SPEAKER_22: stockpile of fertilizer jimot's point is absolutely correct natural gas reservoirs exist around the world and we've been loath to exploit them or develop them because of the climate change carbon risks and issues but i think what we're realizing is that those are luxury beliefs to an extent you can only say let's not exploit carbon resources until you hit a shock wave like this and then people are like wait a second we really do need to have these systems up and running and we need to have excess capacity and local capacity in the system because single points of failure for the whole world's food supply is not going to cut it anymore particularly as the world is becoming more fragmented and multi-polar and there's less us policing of the world that's going to happen and so on it's going to be very critical that everyone starts to think about doubling down not just on energy production but some of these other critical inputs like fertilizer and another output just as a quick side story on that gas production is when you pull that gas out of the ground that's the primary place we find helium and helium we're all waking up to the fact you know we never really think about helium we think about kids balloons at birthday parties but helium goes into mri machines helium goes into semiconductor manufacturing helium goes into mass spec machines that are used in chemical analysis with a lot of applications around the world helium is a critical input to medical equipment to manufacturing equipment and all of a sudden a third of the world's helium coming out of qatar is not making it out and so we're now going to have a helium supply shock that's going to affect the world so we're starting to wake up to the fact that perhaps these nat gas fields that we've allowed to kind of turn a blind eye and say let one country exploit them and let them make all the nat gas the u.s is actively developing you know i went down and visited that chenny air facility in louisiana with doug bergam a couple months ago which was an amazing sight to see where we do all the lng exporting but the u.s has extraordinary nat gas reserves so do many other places in the world that have failed to take advantage of developing them and i think we're realizing the criticality of doing

SPEAKER_40: so at this moment looking at this i think we'll have trump pivot extremely soon i've brought this

SPEAKER_22: chart up now this will be the fourth time is that your prediction jacal you think he's gonna wrap this

SPEAKER_04: up i mean he's 100 going to wrap this up and and i can show why i mean just basically look at the history of this you guys remember i brought up this chart with trump's net approval rating and you you look at how this has changed over the three times i brought it up first time in june last year then october uh and again i'm going to bring it up here the stuff with ice and you know the epstein files and just going right down the line of unpopular decisions trump's net approval rating now has just plummeted to

SPEAKER_00: negative 17. this is the least popular he's ever been and he's had to pivot here pam bondi at the time we are uh recording this as i predicted on a previous episode then christy noem and pam bondi

SPEAKER_04: would be fired uh or and i guess in trump's terms he likes to uh get them a new job and give them a

SPEAKER_00: window seat this is absolutely going to result in a quick pivot who knows what the downstream effects are but the inflation three handle is coming back according to polymarket gas is over four dollars a gallon and then you know it's easy to mock like we did earlier these like no kings protests but eight

SPEAKER_01: million people came out for that that's a large number and if you look at the poly market for

SPEAKER_71: what's going to happen in the midterms 51 chance now that the dems take the senate 86 percent that they

SPEAKER_06: take the house and you know what you're going to take from that is wait sorry poly market is now showing the democrats winning both houses yeah pull it up significant chance of that and you know when this happens how much money is being been on that let's just see 51 percent they take the senate 86 percent they take the house and four and a half million four and a half million dollars on

SPEAKER_17: this oh gosh yeah i tend to i tend to filter how seriously i take polymarket just based on the total

SPEAKER_04: quantum but this is a big number yeah and i you know listen i this is not me trying to dunk on

SPEAKER_00: trump and my personal beliefs i think when you lose tucker when you lose megan cali when you lose joe rogan know and people are looking at who trump surrounded him with there's really just two groups you have these super highly qualified people besan lutnik obviously david sacks you got you got really highly qualified people jd you know who i think the world of i think these people are great but then he put some people in positions that i think weren't up to the task pam bondy christy i'll put stephen miller and cash in that as well it's my personal belief in that case and those people have not served

SPEAKER_01: him well and they need to get this presidency back on track because what's going to happen is we're going to have two more years of impeachments and investigations and the whole thing's going to be derided and we really need to start thinking about what who's making these decisions who made this decision to go into iran and why who made these decisions to have ice go into minnesota and why and i think a lot of it goes back to stephen miller i got mocked a bit here on the pod for like blaming him but you can correlate stephen miller christy noem cash patel and pam bondy with all of the downside of this presidency and the plummeting ratings trump's gonna need to clear house he's cleared out two of four i predict to clear out the other two and get great leadership in there and turn this presidency around because listen this is going to be socialism now and aoc is going to win this is going to cause massive chaos if he doesn't get out of iran and do it soon just my handicapping of the situation uh hegseth i'm not so sure i'm not sure if i uh you know what

SPEAKER_143: i think of him yet but you know we don't have information on why trump did this that's going

SPEAKER_04: to be the next shoe to drop on why why he did it freeberg i think you know this is the point i made the second this war happened or a military operation let's let's call it what it is this is a war when you kill the top hundred people it's a war i said i don't have the information of why he did this like

SPEAKER_00: he might have information freeberg that we don't have that made this an absolute must for us to do but we haven't revealed that information it hasn't explained it well to the american people i think that's why the ratings are you know and i don't want to make the ratings like a tv ratings his popularity is getting crushed here the way this was explained to americans and again i'm not inserting my position here i'm just talking about the disconnect right now is that operation midnight hammer was supposed to uh have just decimated this so why did we do this again and we don't have the information this is why i try to stay humble in this and say like what information does trump have of that we don't have some people seem to think chamath this was overconfidence there's obviously this debate did we get baited into this by israel and get pushed into it and is he a manchurian candidate etc that's above my pay grade too i i don't have any information on that i'm not in the

SPEAKER_42: cia it's hard to be a an armchair critic on this stuff in both senses like i think it's hard to say

SPEAKER_22: hey this guy got talked into doing this israel manipulated him into it you know sorry it's easy to say that it's also easy to say hey we should go get rid of the country that's made all the nuclear weapons both of those are easy to say without all of the texture of the relationships and the details and what really went on none of us know is the truth that's literally the point

SPEAKER_01: i you know i've been trying to make here it's like yeah how do it is the same thing with venezuela like how do we know we don't have any intelligence to mob we're not in the cia we don't have any of these insights that musad or the israeli intelligence services have how do we know how this was going to go down and you know that's all going to come out i think when this all gets

SPEAKER_30: investigated yeah i think trump is and has been the most consistent anti-war president of modern history yes and i think that it's fair to say that he has and has had and has demonstrated enormous restraint and has the highest bar thus far of folks for actually getting into conflict so i do

SPEAKER_182: think that what freebrick says is very important there's just so much we don't know and i think that he doesn't want to stain his legacy with a typical american you know conflict yeah he doesn't want

SPEAKER_184: that i don't think he doesn't need to be anywhere near that so there is obviously stuff that we don't

SPEAKER_17: know i still think that there's a short-term problem which is not just the threat that iran poses to israel but there's a threat that iran poses to the rest of the middle eastern community that neighborhood is a complicated place there was an interview that mbs did on saudi television nick

SPEAKER_14: maybe maybe you can find it it's in arabic but there's a good version of it that i saw with subtitles and if you hear the mbs is telling of what the iranian threat is it's not dissimilar to how the israelis would characterize the threat and so i think it's important to understand that unpredictable actors should not be given an opportunity to have a cataclysmic weapon that can just completely destroy the earth as we know it that just doesn't make sense and i think if you can intervene to prevent that we're now aware of the damages of what this can do to enough of a degree where there should be enough of nuclear disarmament from here on out the six seven eight nine countries that have it okay there's all kinds of reasons why maybe we could have remade those decisions over the intervening 70 years maybe there's some that we never should have let have it the pakistan india thing is a good example of one but we are where we are and i think we can all agree no more countries

SPEAKER_06: should incrementally get access to this thing absolutely not and this regime specifically believes that

SPEAKER_41: anybody who is not part of this specific religion needs to die and the whole well that islam needs to be reunited in order to take on anybody who's not part of well and i have an inversion of radical islam like it's a it's a it's this is a religious lunacy in that country i think i think everybody else

SPEAKER_14: should be murdered if they don't convert i think it's important to say that the overwhelming majority of

SPEAKER_17: sunnis and the overwhelming majority of shias are peaceful observant people there are fringes in every religion and in specifically this i think the most important thing is to not take your word or

SPEAKER_14: anybody else's word i do think it's important to listen to somebody like mbs because i think it's the lived experience of you know having to run a country in that neighborhood and what it means and i think what you see is as you as you're articulating many layers of complexity that again i think that most of us in the west have zero appreciation for all of this goes to in the short term i think that they force themselves into a corner i think we can go back and re-litigate why did obama let him out that was a really really stupid idea we probably should have kept our thumb on the scale and had them close to teetering on economic insolvency that's the only thing that has kept them in check they veered wildly away the minute we let them out of the disarmament agreements that we had but we are where we are we got to put the genie back in the bottle and we cannot look to other countries and tolerate this idea that they also want to build the kinds of weapons that can literally destroy the face of the planet as we know it it's a non-starter and then the second order effect is how do we make sure that folks that are participating in all of this broader seeds of sowing chaos how do we hem them in and how do we create a more reasonable world order and i think that the second order effects and i've said this before kind of bring this back to china and i think a world where it's bipolar where it's the united states and china roughly as the two leading statesmen of the world is probably the nash equilibrium here and so i think getting china in a position where they need to do a deal and remember i said this the worst thing that could happen for china was the president delaying the summit and here we are we're now it's delayed for six weeks it's going to go into mid bay if you think the straight of hormones numbers as it relates to energy prices in europe or anywhere else or crazy look at what's happening inside of china right now it is a no bueno situation and so in may if we can reestablish a set of operating criteria that keeps normalcy in check no more of this rapid random expansion

Chamath Palihapitiya: everywhere where the chinese are trying to build bases in near us and you know now we have to have a point of view near them we don't need any of that so i think if we can use this as an opportunity to

SPEAKER_04: de-escalate i think we should yeah that's we seem to have moved from i mean i think this is the question there's a a doctrine i don't know if you guys heard this one before mowing the lawn which is the israeli's view of hezbollah hamas and even iran which is just hey we have to take away their progress the last 30 or

SPEAKER_01: 40 percent of their progress towards nuclear bombs and we just do that consistently and we contain them this has tipped over into regime change and so i think that's the wild card that none of us can predict what happens from this point forward and i don't know how you leave iran in this state if they're going to take over the the straight uh and charge everybody a dollar a barrel is that going to be tenable are they going to keep blowing stuff up this is uncharted territory um and yeah and very high stakes president trump also reiterated the us doesn't need middle east oil and that europeans

SPEAKER_03: should go straight to the straight and just take it he said that the straight will open naturally

SPEAKER_115: because quote why do we want to be able why are you always focusing on the straits of hormones jason

SPEAKER_134: why am i i mean you're always overlooking the gaze of hormuz as an example that's true that and the non-binaries of hormones they all count well why is it all about the straits of hormones all the

SPEAKER_10: time listen it's i don't want to get cancelled here because i'm talking of i don't know the pronouns

SPEAKER_71: to use for these straits of hormones but yes the straits in hormuz i don't think you're allowed to be

SPEAKER_211: gay in hormuz i think you have to keep that pretty quiet there don't you that was the greatest clip ever if you don't know what we're referring to it's a viral clip it's incredible of purple-haired

Chamath Palihapitiya: people no not purple-haired this was a young indian lady uh and she we all thought the same thing

SPEAKER_215: indians are so smart how what happened to her what she's the they found an indian who didn't understand the question they found the one dumb indian yes exactly oh god they found her they found

SPEAKER_218: her this is she's been absolutely i mean isn't it a little bit homophobic that we're so focused on

SPEAKER_219: the straits of hummus and not the gaze of hummus yes i agree yes for sure why do you think something

SPEAKER_226: to leave the gaze of hummus behind i think it's just um history which ivy league do you think she

SPEAKER_71: went to brown yeah 100 brown or color okay oh yeah that's that's a good call i would say colombia she yeah she might have gone to vassar actually i think that might have been her safety school if that's the best not borat not borat um bruno impersonation i've heard in a long time so free bug

SPEAKER_229: why are you so gay are you making your potatoes non-binary it's like literally this is a bruno

SPEAKER_29: you got 10 minutes jimath you want to do your bitcoin thing or you want to just break the bitcoin thing most interesting because i think in the last couple of months what we've started to see is an

SPEAKER_182: increasing amount of research that says that the scheduled eventuality of a quantum chip a functional chip is probably not 25 or 30 years away it's probably now in the next five to seven years if

SPEAKER_14: i had to guess and i think that because that event horizon has moved in in these next five to seven years for those that follow bitcoin and care about it my only advice on this topic is that the leaders of the bitcoin ecosystem need to organize themselves and need to make sure that they have an answer to the question of is this stuff quantum resistant because if the answer is no they are a very visible and

SPEAKER_153: obvious honeypot now there is the answer that then a lot of the bitcoin community gives which is well

SPEAKER_14: everything is screwed and my only advice is possibly but if a non-state actor gets a hold of quantum technology that can defeat crypto as we know it today sha 256 you know ecds like the elliptical curve stuff the run-of-the-mill stuff that we all rely on a non-state actor's incentive will first be to drain the obvious honeypots and then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to all the prices go to zero and then they have all the money and then they can buy stuff that would be the sequence of events if you were a non-state actor so yes you're right the banks get hacked yes you're right all this other stuff goes to put but i think you first go and you exploit the obvious places and i think crypto is the most obvious honeypot in a world where you can defeat encryption now in fairness the crypto community this was much much earlier had to deal with this they had to migrate from different encryption schemes in the early parts of bitcoin and they were able to self-organize the difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift you're talking about all the wallets being re-architected you're talking about all the transactional flows all the processing notes these are complicated things that need to happen

Chamath Palihapitiya: and i would just tell the crypto community you have five to seven years to get your in order

SPEAKER_04: that's it freeberg quantum computing just generally speaking you feel it's going to have a major impact in the short term do you think it's actually going to become viable in the midterm

SPEAKER_03: where do you think about because it's always been 10 years out but it feels like we're making

SPEAKER_21: some progress yeah there's a lot that's changed i mean so the the primary mechanism of modern encryption

SPEAKER_22: standards relates to factoring primes of an integer discovering the prime factors of an integer would give you the ability to theoretically crack encryption there was an algorithm that was theorized by a guy named peter shore i think i talked about this on a prior episode back in 1994 called shore's algorithm today it's kind of a commonly well-known model for how you could do this and it's a you can watch a youtube video on it there's some youtube videos that explain it pretty clearly takes a bit of time to understand it and then a couple years ago i think in 2023 there was another computer scientist named oded regev from nyu who published another paper that showed a faster different approach to shore's algorithm there's an improvement on shore's algorithm that basically reduced the number of quantum operations required to factor a large integer significantly so there's kind of we're sorry we

SPEAKER_156: went from 28 million of those operations down to 500 000. yeah and so there's this a lot of work going

SPEAKER_22: on right now even before we have industrial scale quantum computers a lot of work going on in quantum computing theory and building models and algorithms a lot of this is rooted in in pure mathematics and statistics and whatnot that work is making progress and building better algorithms even before the compute comes online and then there's the separate set of things that you can track but you know the market if you want to trust the market is betting that we are within spitting distance of quantum computers reaching an industrial scale at this moment so those two things intersect at some moment in the near term where you have algorithms that are low demand low latency that can crack modern encryption standards and then the computing comes online and someone is going to execute the the real thing is what do you do about it there's a whole bunch of research that's been going on for 20 plus years on quantum algorithms quantum encryption standards and so the to chamath's point these things exist it's just a heavy lift and so there's going to be this heavy lift probably you know pretty good business to be made in the next couple of years and uh all of the changes are going to need to happen across all

SPEAKER_238: encryption standards across the whole internet across how we do communications and so on in a crazy

SPEAKER_30: way freebird crypto is in the same place as all these software socks meaning if agi and asi are real these software companies are not what we thought they were yeah if quantum is real a bunch of these crypto

SPEAKER_182: projects are not what we thought they were and so you can't have both guys you got to choose pick one

Chamath Palihapitiya: yeah all right everybody this has been oh hey we listen um you know i have an incredible ea

SPEAKER_30: executive assistant it's really been like you know everybody talks about like agents agents agents agents and this was the pre-agent agent you know my my ea's averaged around 188 to 200k a year and then right

SPEAKER_244: now their heads are exploding in middle america let's tell the truth i was paying 188 to 200 000 a

SPEAKER_14: year they were wonderful okay right and then i jason was like try this try this thing called athena athena athena i'm like what is it so i call the guys and they're like yeah we have these really well-trained folks they're like geniuses that work in the philippines it's 3 000 a month and we're building all this tooling and so as all these agents get better and all these ais get better they'll get the advantage of that i said okay i'll give it a try this is the first time i've had a male

Chamath Palihapitiya: assistant his name is lay lay's fabulous he's a math grad math and computer science in the philippines

SPEAKER_182: okay and he's excellent i love late too uh somebody just put it in the chat i love late

SPEAKER_14: from nick nick nick nick you look like coming to nbc this fall these guys are incredible they do everything for me it's like the most incredible hack and arbitrage i've ever seen then now then i can direct a bonus to lay at the end of the year which is great because then it allows me to feel like i'm giving him really you know good support he works my hours from the philippines have not looked back

SPEAKER_06: go athena yeah that's great i i use it as well i was the first investor you were the first you were the how many athenas you have one or two i have one two for a long time second one and uh then that person moved on you split it between like work and personal or no yeah it's work and personal as an

SPEAKER_03: example like there's an incredible bakery where i live uh like out in dripping springs uh called abby

SPEAKER_01: jane bakery they don't take orders but every thursday uh my athena assistant calls at 8am asks them

SPEAKER_28: what's on the menu because they change the menu every week and then they send me the menu i order the bakeries and then he calls an uber courier to pick it up and drop it off because they're not on doordash

SPEAKER_01: or uber it's just a stupid example of something that made our lives incredible to have the best bakery in all of austin in the house every weekend for the girls and everything and um

SPEAKER_00: everyday problems yeah well everyday problem anyway it's it's a silly example but i was having to go make that run and i did it every like fourth or fifth week as a treat now it's every week so you just look at what you're doing the other thing we're doing is they've been able to

SPEAKER_03: we had americans who were researchers sorting through the inbound applications from founders we were able to put an athena assistant on that and then define it and then we they're learning how to use open claw so the athena open claw merger is kind of happening in real time yeah no i have i

SPEAKER_30: have lay doing a bunch of advanced tasks that i typically wouldn't give to my ea and then he also

SPEAKER_32: deals with sort of just the more practical day-to-day tasks scheduling all that stuff anyways it's been

SPEAKER_14: it's been an incredible eye-opening thing because it sets a very good example where you know you can be

SPEAKER_182: cost effective and still get your work done um and it was really bothering me actually because like

SPEAKER_14: the the amount of cost inflation for that role because i don't think i've ever needed an ea i'll just be honest i'm going to put it out there i think i've always needed an aa and i would title them differently and sometimes i would call you know i i mean i've said this before but like you know even like roles like chief of staff they just don't make sense like the chief of staff should be the second most powerful person in the world because they work for the president united states yeah everybody else should not have a chief of staff in my opinion okay it's um it's a major unlock and

SPEAKER_00: the problem is we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes and it's just people don't want to take the ea or the administrative assistant position in america they just don't there's they want to do

David Friedberg: something higher up the stack but the people in the philippines you know they do want that job

SPEAKER_139: lay's crushing i love lay rj is my guy and uh yeah first you got a guy too i got a guy too and he is

SPEAKER_168: also very technical uh so anyway shout out to athena shout out thank you guys thank you awesome

SPEAKER_03: yeah friedberg yeah i know you're making great progress you showed me some pictures of potatoes

SPEAKER_55: from ohalo um yeah how's that going shipping seed this week to farmers all over north america so we're getting going are you sending seed to our friend roger the dirt farmer he is his son yeah oh that's so

SPEAKER_17: great roger yeah i love it roger the dirt farmer is a phenomenal poker player he and keating often

SPEAKER_22: play in the game together how'd they do a couple weeks ago they came up crushed me the next day both

SPEAKER_182: of those two goofballs ran over the game it's so frustrating it's frustrating playing with keating

SPEAKER_14: roger is much more of a tag you know a tight aggressive player so it's no picnic there's no free lunch when both of those two guys are in the game and then on top of that you know helmuth coon robo it's like it's not it's murder's role it's murder's role i got i made a late trip

SPEAKER_00: to the valley i'm like hey chamath oh jason i'm in town i get to play i'm not like i got some bad news

SPEAKER_71: you're no longer on the list and i filled the game up plus two so i squeak into the game i run up a quick

SPEAKER_01: 20 25 dime skis and then helmuth passive aggressive helm youth because who cannot handle the fact that i'm

SPEAKER_215: more famous than him now it's just totally tweaked him that chamath and i and you reberg are so much more famous than him it's broken his brain he's like uh okay a car dealer car dealer you're supposed

SPEAKER_10: to have a seat and jacal doesn't and i literally just doubled up at that point chamath's like okay i guess you could book the win jacal because you know it's like poor taste to double up and then leave how much

SPEAKER_04: you doing 40 50k i was only like 25 times it was oh it's like i used model y yeah hey chamath we're here at the end of the show i just wanted to make sure people know that the liquidity event that we're

SPEAKER_76: hosting you can go to allin.com events has sold out and we've started a wait list so this is the

SPEAKER_182: quickest we've ever sold out i asked kimber and lisa to try to find another hundred seats i think there's like 7.7 trillion dollars of money that want to attend we can't get everybody in so we're trying to get everybody together we announced bill ackman and andre carpathy last week incredible we're gonna do an iris zone like pitch competition there's like four whiz bang hot can you explain what that is for folks who don't know yeah i know a bunch of these guys but four of them in particular are running super hot right now like taking 50 million run it up to a billion to 3 billion they're just ripping and uh they're gonna go on stage and they're gonna give us their best ideas pitch and the three of us plus i think as many of the guests that can do it will vote and then maybe we can even publish

SPEAKER_116: these ideas so that folks can can try to follow them they can vet them right it's like a really brave thing to do to get on stage and say hey i'm making this bad like that's like great i did it four

Chamath Palihapitiya: times yeah i mean i just spanked it but hopefully these guys can do the same thing but listen we

SPEAKER_14: have a natural resources pitch we have something in healthcare we have something in tech we have

Chamath Palihapitiya: something in genius it's great it's like all the big categories right something in crypto so it's you're gonna get every shade of every whippy big alpha market by the way you created a bit of a storm

SPEAKER_10: on the interwebs with your tau mention in the uh uh jensen interview i just asked jensen a question

Chamath Palihapitiya: i'm not long tau he redirected it to something which is folding at home which is i think if you

SPEAKER_14: don't know it you should look it up but it's how you can allocate compute to helping solve health problems the point is these open source projects or these distributed compute projects are the future the real question is what is the architecture and the incentives none of us knows that

Chamath Palihapitiya: but man i think it's so important and then all these goons went crazy went crazy well i mean the reason

SPEAKER_41: is because i did place a bet on tau like a couple of weeks ago i went public with hey yeah i've got a small bet here because i think these subnets are fascinating your child maxing your town i mean

SPEAKER_10: it's like i might be five or six hundred thousand dollars a tiny bet your syndicate max no i did it myself i did it myself i made a small bet on town because i watched exactly what this retard is syndicate

SPEAKER_211: maxing it's not i'm not retard maxing here but i am certainly not doing any introspection i am just

Chamath Palihapitiya: doing deals on great founders and companies andreason has been rage tweeting about this guy that he watches a genius who posts these videos about retard maxing yes i watched the videos it's incredible this guy is what is the guy's name i don't know what i don't know but he goes on his back deck

SPEAKER_300: he's got a weber grill smoking a cigar he pops out a cigar and he says listen it doesn't matter

SPEAKER_14: that just be the most incredible contribution your life that's the most incredible contribution andreason may be making to culture and society in america not the browser that he found this guy i encourage

SPEAKER_211: you nick find the video post the links this guy is incredible because you're overthinking it folks just oh my god work hard and don't think it through because look what happened to freeberg he

SPEAKER_191: starts ruminating love you boys don't ruminate just go sell software and go make better potatoes freeberg no more ruminating and therapy for you freeberg come on the program anytime mark and

SPEAKER_215: juicing it'll reach our backs with us here on the all in pod love you boys

SPEAKER_320: rain man david sacks the open source it to the love you we need to get merch