Chamath Palihapitiya: all right everybody welcome back to twist it is april 1st 2026 this is not an april fool's joke delian is back on the program it's going to be based folks with me my co-host and who will be the world's second greatest moderator today alex wilhelm alex let's get started here but before we do i always like to applaud applaud and i take my plot pin oh you use it on the wrist and i press the button here we go delian i'm now recording everything and i have all my action items action item buy secondary buy more secondary in delian's company what's it what is varda trading for on the secondary market i need to increase my ownership 2050 a share baby 2050 a share okay i'm coming in at 1925 i'm coming in at 1925 with my bid plod i applaud you is there an offer there is an

SPEAKER_06: offer if you go to plod.ai twist p-l-a-u-d dot a-i slash twist use the code twist save 10 and then you won't forget everything you're supposed to do and then jason won't send you late night slacks

SPEAKER_05: asking where the thing is that you promised him you'd do which everyone absolutely loves yeah well

SPEAKER_08: you took the job alex it was your choice to come work for me like everyone everyone gets to make a

SPEAKER_09: mistake in their life i've made several you know here we are we also have more guests than just

SPEAKER_06: delian from founders fund and varda we also have sal chury he is the man over at trust ventures general partner there think regulated industries companies like base power jason firms that we

SPEAKER_14: absolutely love sal thanks for being here thanks for having me sal i love base power

SPEAKER_15: best company yum yum on that one just tell us in one sentence or two why you made that bet grid's

SPEAKER_18: broken we need to fix it uh you look at u.s versus china energy generation they've 10x in the past 25 years we're flat if we don't fix it we are in big trouble uh everything we want to do requires power so base um has taken a pretty novel approach to solving that problem they're putting batteries on people's homes so you get a battery to back up your house instead of spending you know 40 50 000 bucks on a tesla power wall or a generator you get a battery for 500 bucks which is more like the cost of a plane ticket uh base puts a battery on your house they back you up when the when the grid goes down um but lots of benefits to the grid and then base has basically a distributed arbitrage machine sitting at your house so all day it's taking all those intermittent sort of solar wind all these incredibly cheap renewables that are amazing we just don't use them uh and using them so uh poles and wires move energy uh through space batteries move energies through time so base is just carpet bombing the grid with batteries to lower energy costs and uh and and kind of help us use some of those renewables that today are really cheap but mostly underutilized so genius uh love the product love

SPEAKER_22: the entire concept if you want more about base power we did have the founder on episode 2190 from october

SPEAKER_06: 2025 and jason we're joined by yet another guest we have larson jensen from harpoon ventures former seal now backing companies like robust intelligence and merlin labs larson glad you're here happy to be here guys thanks for having me all right so the the thing that happened right before we jumped on air everybody is that bloomberg reported that spacex has filed confidentially to go public this means they're targeting probably a june ipo lots to come on the story jason but finally we're here we're making steps towards what could be the biggest ipo of all time no inside

SPEAKER_29: information but were you surprised by the timing uh no um i i have uh i don't want to say i have inside information but everybody in the valley is buzzing about this uh there's been tons of secondary and all kinds of transactions for the last three years where people were either pairing their position or building their position in the name and um i think the bigger most interesting part of this is elon inc again no inside information i've met elon a couple of times uh i it's quite possible that this is you know uh the flop and then the turn and the river are to come uh and if this is the flop and the turn and the river to come the next discussion is going to be merging with tesla and then you're going to be able to buy the stock dollar sign elon and you know maybe boring company neural income in next and you can just buy a 10 trillion dollar company that's solving the hardest problems on the

SPEAKER_32: planet led by let's call it what it is elon is the the greatest uh entrepreneur of this generation and you know top easily top five of all time some people would argue number one two three uh and i'll leave it up to other people to make that decision but certainly it's got 20 years left in them and uh

SPEAKER_06: the best is probably yet to come sal 1.75 trillion dollars theoretically is what the company is targeting we're also going to possibly see open ai and anthropic list this year so we could have essentially three you know several hundred billion or trillion dollar ipos this year is this a net positive for startup exits or is this an entirely different conversation than we'll be talking about

SPEAKER_18: when we discuss smaller company ipos well i mean look it's it's sort of like testing the the limits of the term startup right the the private markets have have really developed over the past couple of years and and is able to support a company like spacex to this point is kind of wild uh when it lists it'll be one of the largest companies in the world and as jason points out you might end up getting a company that is kind of an amalgam of all of elon's industries which looks almost like a parallel economy in itself yeah uh it's kind of an insane it's an insane thing i think it's gonna be great i mean there's so much there's so much liquidity tied up in this company uh there's so many people who are so convicted on it uh but but i think you know um it'll be one of the greatest wealth creation events in history uh you know you think about folks who live in austin we're all like oh my goodness buy a house now because it's about to get ugly uh but but i think you know the same is true for all the folks who have been invested in in spacex for for you know a decade now and you know even even more recent folks like we're we're investors in xai um i think we're all looking at this and and

SPEAKER_39: sort of thinking about the the flop in the river uh as jason says all right so delian you're the

SPEAKER_38: founders fund kid on the show today uh if you go to the portfolio page the first entry the first

SPEAKER_06: thing is spacex so uh tell us what the firm is thinking what are you shooting for and uh what will your return be on a net irr basis from your spacex checks um yeah do you think it's probably going

SPEAKER_42: to be one of the greatest you know sort of venture investments of all time yeah i think we originally got involved with something there somewhere around like 2009 or so uh we were one of the you know first big you know sort of external checks and then uh along the way you know sort of continue to you know sort of double down across a variety of our funds including some of our you know sort of latest growth funds um yeah i mean what are we expecting look i think you know you know spacex has basically built up you know the best you know sort of telecommunications business you know sort of ever you know sort of made you know um you know through through starlink and they're obviously using you know so that advantage to tackle some even broader markets they also are you know probably the only people that have the ability to really take us to like the moon and mars in a super meaning you know who knows what the like sort of uncapped you know sort of potential upside of that is um let's see what are we you know sort of expecting yeah it's obviously going to be you know sort of huge you know sort of wealth creation for basically you know all our early you know sort of lps um and you know i think we've also proven that uh uh we're willing to you know sort of have extremely long hold periods i think you know from our very you know sort of first uh uh you know sort of investments today you know it's been something like you know 18 years of

SPEAKER_45: hold and so we are happy to uh you know should be very patient capital larson you guys are an

SPEAKER_06: astronaut so you're in the satellite game uh do you think that uh there's gonna be real competition on the space internet question in the next couple of years because i know amazon's getting involved china has the thing going on i'm just curious if you think that uh they're gonna run away with it

SPEAKER_48: they might run away with it but i also think there's a lot of form factors that make a lot of sense here like you know i think one thing that astronomers is doing that spacex isn't to date at least is servicing you know specific countries specific companies and so if you want your own dedicated brawn bad access um you can get that through astronomers and not necessarily through spacex but spacex is certainly much larger especially right now i think there's a lot of other things that are really exciting about spacex so obviously lp liquidity is something that's been top of mind for every single lp across the board now given how many of them have you know interest in spacex right now priming the pump getting some liquidity back to lps to redeploy it into the venture ecosystem i think it's going to be a net positive also when you think about the early employees of spacex every early founder i think can be more aggressive if they have some cushion in their bank account they can buy a house they can do these things they're not pressured to exit early so founders that we backed their former spacex or the new ones are going to be starting new companies i think this is a net positive for them to be more risk seeking and i also think that by virtue of spacex going to retail now we have the opportunity for young kids to have access to this and they're sort of like you know in their brokerage accounts effectively like we have our kids in these brokerage accounts my kids who are nine and seven don't stop asking about when they can buy spacex and i think this is a net positive for the future generation to also be a part of the most ambitious country or excuse me company it probably in world history and all the things that elon's building so i think there's a lot of positives that are coming from this ipo that are more than just meets the eye super happy for the founders fund guys you guys are the goat you guys crush it but i also think there's a lot of other beneficiaries out there in the ecosystem that could lead for entrepreneurship to be even better in the

SPEAKER_06: decades ahead because of spacex jason you're always talking about you know getting more people to start companies and so forth what do you think the liquidity effect will be on uh founder formation if you will in the next i don't know couple years i've been doing this job for decades now not a lot of

SPEAKER_56: people have worked with more startups than me over 600 investments but honestly every dot io might be the

Chamath Palihapitiya: exception because every dot io is working with every new startup it's the all-in-one finance banking and

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SPEAKER_58: on what really matters for your business every dot io is going to help you do that ev e r y dot io

SPEAKER_59: well you know one of the great things about america is the founders are so based and uh all bought in when it comes to entrepreneurship that the first thing founders do much to the chagrin of their wealth managers who are dweebs and dorks who get paid one point x percent uh of your four or five percent net after taxes returns they try to stop them from investing in other startups but that's kind of the reason why america is so great is because entrepreneurs the second they get any money in their pocket are like how can i how can i blow this money how can i 10x how can i a thousand exit let's go to vegas uh maybe i'll buy a car uh for me it was buying like uh you know a corvette and a one touch

SPEAKER_60: espresso machine when i saw weblogs inc in 2005 like two big you know seventy thousand dollar corvette and the three thousand dollar espresso machine were my big purchases um but i was then like hey i wonder

SPEAKER_59: if i can angel investing companies now you take other countries like europe um slash epcot center and when a family gets money in epcot center italy france all they do is try to protect it i have to protect this i have to protect this we have to buy castles and build moats and they never recirculate that money the reason why australia is doing particularly well is because the founders of atlassian and the founders of canva all started venture firms and started to restart circulate that that's what i suspect will happen here you'll have a bunch of people retire from venture capital brian singerman led uh founders fund for a bunch and i think he gave over the reins um so you'll have people who are impacted i think i'm sure the spacex thing probably had something to do with that um you know and they'll call in rich or whatever but then they'll be like you know what doug leone

SPEAKER_60: he came back to sequoia yesterday and it was like the day before april fools and i'm like i was always saying doug is retired but every time i go to the office and i hang out with the

SPEAKER_59: sequoia boys and and gals they're doug's there walking around so i don't understand like this retirement i think it's going to be a massive amount of recirculation i think it's going to save you know these ipos if stripe goes out discord goes out spacex and then these two wild cards i you know open ai and um anthropic uh this is going to reinvigorate venture capital which under biden's four years of the wrath of lena khan was considered the worst asset class now we're going to go back to it being the best asset class and everybody's going to want to slice after the last five years

SPEAKER_58: of this is a complete utter disaster what fool would ever put their money into venture capital so if you're going to be in the startup game you need to have like actual true resilience and man i

SPEAKER_59: got to tell you that was that was trying for the four years during lena khan to be like is this even

SPEAKER_58: worth it i heard so many vcs is it worth it to be in this like none of these companies are ever going to go public none can ever merge and here we are it's happening folks venture capital is back on the

SPEAKER_35: menu that kind of brings us into the first thing i wanted to dig into today which is uh the

SPEAKER_06: difference between how we talk about ai and technology today here on the show and in similar places in and around the tech scene and some public pulling data that just dropped i'm a little bit worried that what we're seeing is a lot of technologists building the future and a lot of the public being kind of left behind in a sense concerned worried about job loss uh there's a quinnipack poll that shows you know americans are using more and more ai uh but numbers on trust and so forth are going down now sal you wrote a book called the trust revolution literally all about this kind of thing i'm curious one how big is the gap between the public and the technology space today

SPEAKER_35: and is it a a bridgeable chasm before something bad happens at the election box that leads to

SPEAKER_18: onerous regulation crimping everyone's fun yeah so i spend all day uh helping solve regulatory complexity i'm a recovering law professor this is like what i focus on all day i think there's a couple things to be thinking about with respect to ai data centers 80 of people in both parties this is not a partisan thing uh are skeptical of or negative on ai and or data centers right uh if you look at the first industrial revolution as an analog like you know there were you had the pinkertons firing shots uh alongside frick right at you know carnegie steel uh production facility so um we've got trillions of dollars in capex sitting behind chain link fences effectively undefended like you know it's a real

SPEAKER_16: concern and then there's another dynamic where you've got folks like sam and dario like they're out there raising like billions and billions of dollars by saying we're just going to replace people and you know in many ways it doesn't make them the best spokespeople because the average person hears that and actually thinks things are much further along than they are and then you've got some ceos are actually starting to let people go and using ai as an excuse now i actually don't even think that that's really so true yet uh but it will become true and so you're already seeing this kind of preemptive back backlash now at the same time you've got things like robotics that are really

SPEAKER_18: starting to to take off the embodied ai stuff um one of the companies that we're we're most excited about is physical intelligence uh it's a visual language action model so it's sort of bringing that llm concept into the physical world can can you know pilot a drone can run a surgery robot uh can can run an autonomous vehicle these things are starting to reach into the world of atoms and not just the world of bits and i think it's going to start touching a lot more people so i think we're headed into the world war iii of regulatory fights we've we've already kind of engaged on a lot of these across the states but there's going to be there's going to be significant political backlash to this

SPEAKER_06: there's this guy named jason and uh he recently had a tweet all about how we've reached hegi millions of jobs have been lost as we speak retirement of entire careers people getting kind of locked out of the economy uh jason are you to blame for the public sentiment crisis here putting putting

Chamath Palihapitiya: myself aside i have my own feelings but our industry has a terrible communication problem you know you have on one side dario who is like it's over all jobs are over agi is almost here

SPEAKER_59: skynet's going to be revealed we're blowing everything up and then you have the other side jensen who is like don't worry every cab driver is going to be a chauffeur and just carry your bags which is also kind of a little bit too lovey-dovey obviously you know there's no drivers in waymos and his position was the other week yeah you'll still have a driver in a waymo they'll be serving you coffee or whatever like that's not happening you know who's done a great job michael dell you know why michael dell has done a great job is because he put six billion dollars of his own money which is a

SPEAKER_58: fraction of his net worth forget about the stupid giving pledge if you just say to americans hey we're going to get the other 40 of people who are not participating in uh the um equity holding of these great companies if you just change that everybody's going to feel differently and you know how you know this anybody who's on this call who has exposure to a venture firm in spacex in quad or any of these companies we feel great about the economy any of our family members who have exposure to our venture firms or you know who uh have a 401k with google in it or nvidia in it they feel great people who don't feel great they don't own equities they don't own a piece of the prize what we really need

SPEAKER_59: to do in my mind is be honest with people there are going to be entire jobs retired just like phone

SPEAKER_58: operators and receptionists are gone the typing pool's gone the mail room's gone society went on it's not a big deal bad jobs that can be automated always get uh retired and it may happen a little faster this time at the same time by the way all of these great entrepreneurs all these great philanthropists instead of putting money into non-profits which take 60 cents on the dollar and

SPEAKER_59: they pay these you know overpriced mids to you know be in 110 office space which is better than all of our collective office space and they sit there and you know uh you enter it up and and you know

SPEAKER_58: decide they're going to try to save the world well 70 cents on the dollar goes to their comp in their office space just give people directly some goddamn shares of spacex and off anthropic and the entire problem is solved and then america will be unstoppable every american has ten thousand dollars in the market they're going to look at it totally different they're going to watch their net worth go up so i would say we should start a new giving pledge and it should be based on michael dell's

SPEAKER_69: trump accounts uh in america what do they call them what were they called before trump

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SPEAKER_75: you're operating out of northwestregisteredagent.com twist everybody on everybody working in silicon

SPEAKER_58: valley gives five percent of their shares that they make they get some great tax benefit and they give it to invest america if you told me hey jacal will you pledge five percent of all the uber and robin hood shares to invest america i'd be like sure if it keeps us from having a revolution in

Chamath Palihapitiya: socialism why not make it opt-in and see if you can get a thousand shareholders in these great companies to join it solves the entire problem because then if there is job displacement and somebody needs to take two years off they can tap that invest america account if they're destitute and need

SPEAKER_76: to be retrained or at least they're not going to be scared about retirement anyway yeah thanks for

SPEAKER_06: coming i want to get delian in here because founders fund is is relatively outspoken i was just reading uh trey's post in uh the free post um three press sorry about uh industrialization and the need for public private partnership and so forth do you guys think about the political issues uh regarding ai and market sentiment because i think if anyone would have a strident

SPEAKER_42: opinion it might be founders fund i think that you know we obviously come from a you know sort of more you know sort of libertarian you know sort of point of view where it's you know sort of you know sort of light technology accelerate and you know sort of deal with the societal implications you know sort of later but there was this you know sort of famous email between peter and zuckerberg that you just got leaked out uh from back in years or 2020 that basically articulated this point of you know um if you know more of the music population doesn't get to um uh you know participate in the you know sort of you know growing you know sort of economy you are going to start to see this type of war be a sort of socialist you just a revolution and it was a discussion about um dad plus you know zuckerberg being one of the more prominent millennials uh in his generation to you know try and you know sort of figure out how to you know sort of fight back against it um last week i got to be you know sort of on stage at the uh hill and valley forum which is this uh you know sort of i've been organizing for a couple years and we do our best to you know sort of highlight you know sort of both sides of the aisle and so i highlighted an argument that like i'm not saying i necessarily agree with but was kind of interesting to you know hear from which is uh from uh this panel with vinod khosla and senator uh cantwell vinod's you know sort of idea was you know as a mechanism to you know start to you know sort of lift up the you know sort of um you know you know bottom of the you know sort of economic you know sort of uh you know sort of totem pole um was to you know basically you know sort of make it so there's a singular tax that is the equivalent tax rate for whether it's capital gains you know basically or income and if you do that you actually you know can then eliminate the you know uh bottom 125 million from the tax you know sort of basis anybody that basically makes anything below 100 125k um and so i do think you you you do need to start to think about how do you make it to that you know you know with these like ai productivity gains you have a much broader you know some portion of the population that gets it you sort of participate in this upside some of it may come from you know things like invest america where you're getting to participate in the upside some of it is remove some of the economic drag of you know sort of the lower part of the

SPEAKER_45: you know sort of population eg you know sort of taxes yeah just really quickly here's the email in

SPEAKER_06: question and uh teal wrote uh when one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable the one will have negative capital for a long time find it hard to start accumulating capital one form of real estate and if no one has a stake in the capitalist system then one may well turn against it i guess we're operationalizing that jason and try to put it into into practice so larson are you gonna follow jason and put five percent of your uh net worth into other people's accounts so they don't vote for you know i actually you know i'll i'll disagree with

SPEAKER_48: jason on some of this and i i think this is actually coming i don't live in silicon valley i don't think many people here actually do on the call here today but some of my friends that i go and see at my kids birthday parties like own car dealerships and they're the ones telling me that they're using claude code and they're replacing workers at their own car dealership and so i think it's actually happening and i think the other thing it's one thing to sort of redistribute wealth through whatever the mechanism is like universal basic income some of this like letting people participate is one thing but i think you know most of us here and i think most people in life put a lot of their identity behind what they do and it's easy for silicon valley to trivialize that you know some jobs aren't important and you get to go do something else but these jobs are important to those people and so i think we're walking our way right into a bear trap and part of the reason why trump got elected is because he wanted to reshore jobs that are offshore to china and so china became the boogeyman and i think rightfully so and a large part of his base supported trump because of that what i'm concerned about now is that the tech industry is walking to the same trap again that is a bernie narrative is an aoc narrative is an elizabeth warren narrative and tech has aligned itself like it or not with the trump administration and so here we are where we're going to walk ourselves into a trap i think again that if we don't do things right and we don't actually think through the consequences of this as a society we could walk ourselves into a position where ai is taking jobs the same way that china took our jobs and we have a huge disenfranchised worker base that isn't like upset about the fact that they're doing a job isn't upset the fact that they're being a cabbie and now all of a sudden they get to carry luggage they might like it they're providing for their family like i can't speak for them but i think everybody that has a job that is providing for their families takes some at least on being a male you take some pride in that and you want to do that and so i think we're walking our way into that sort of like blindly yeah i think it's just

SPEAKER_84: too too too simple for silicon valley to say hey we're going to pay you and everything's going to be

SPEAKER_86: fine i don't think that's going to be claire larson i am with you i am not a fan of ubi because it

Chamath Palihapitiya: takes away purpose but i am for taking a look at the disparity in wealth which is incredibly real and it's going to get we all know it's going to get worse it's going to get it's like we're

SPEAKER_48: going to have the first time founder who's like a billionaire outcome one dude with sort of like ai agents running his company that's inevitable that's going to happen and then it feeds into the elizabeth warren aoc stuff again where the wealth disparity is there and so i think especially i think this is already playing into the democrats favor if you know the right somehow can get

SPEAKER_90: its act together and put some policies in place and some ideas in place and at least

SPEAKER_29: have the conversation i don't even look at it we are i don't even look at it as a political issue i

SPEAKER_59: look at it as um being a thoughtful member of the elite the one percent the two percent the creators if you're a thoughtful person um you probably give a bigger tip than a person who's you know part of the 99 or the 90 you probably give huge tips i give absurdly large tips because i'm like well i got lucky in life i think we need to explain to americans that we're all in this together a little more esprit de corps and the problem is entrepreneurs look at the non-profit sector and they're like the non-profit industrial complex is a bunch of who are maxing who are wasting all this money and they just think well i don't want to do that and then they're like the government's corrupt and they're

Chamath Palihapitiya: doing fraud so why would i want to pay more taxes or have my c's my wealthies so there's got to be a third way to give back all of us want to give back like who on this call raise your hand if you're going to give away at least five percent of your net worth it's like everybody yeah like everybody is everybody is so why don't we just get ahead of it and say listen if we all get lucky and we hit these home runs we're going to give away at least five percent ten percent and this is how i'm choosing to do it and i'm going to choose to do it when i'm a little bit younger and choosing to do it now before the pitchforks come off and before we get 20 mondami's in office and before aoc becomes

SPEAKER_86: president i'm thinking very pragmatically larson like i mean if you have a better suggestion i don't know

SPEAKER_94: sal you want to get in on this i think you got you know great points there yeah curious to yourself

SPEAKER_18: it's not just about redistributing the wealth though i think is larson's point it's not just about hey like you're getting crushed by this big tsunami i do think it's really important here though to to bring a bit of a dose of uh historical humility to these things uh at least on the side of the equation of like knowing what's going to happen at the at the outset of the industrial revolution when the steam engine was created uh people thought no one would ever work in factories again and of course then the industrial revolution happened right it's like i think we're just like very bad at predicting how these things happen uh what i think is is obvious here is that the world is going to look really different and so um that that rate of change is going to be greater than it ever has been in the past but i think it's it's hard to like when when you start to say hey let's let's let's let's let someone on a marble dais in washington just write a law that's going to fix this problem it's like i don't know if you're going to like the results of that it's uh it's very hard to predict how these things play themselves out you don't want to constrain people from being able to

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SPEAKER_06: of put this into context here's a polymarket we're tracking that goes into uh the chances of an ai data center moratorium being passed bringing this up because i believe aoc and bernie have both endorsed the idea uh kind of a small market not a ton of volume yet but what's really interesting to me is this number isn't zero because to me the chance of this actually happening is zero but the market's

SPEAKER_109: president much higher than that how does it reconcile i gotta know how they reconcile this is it a moratorium like in maine or vermont where there's no data centers or is it no it's anywhere

SPEAKER_04: in the united states okay so this is a federal ban on wait wait wait it's a it's a federal law or

SPEAKER_35: it could be a local ban that's no this particular market results to yes if it's a federal ban national

SPEAKER_76: ban it has to be a national okay because that's important because the chances of it being a local

SPEAKER_114: ban i think are a hundred percent yeah exactly somebody is going to do something dumb there

SPEAKER_115: what do you think delian yeah i think the the likelihood of a federal band at least obviously

SPEAKER_42: in the current administration feels like you know sort of zero percent chance but i think it was aoc plus bernie actually did put forth a you know sort of bill to try and you know sort of you know put a you know entire federal ban in place i think there's something like eight or nine states now that have you know sort of bills um you know currently you know sort of in work i think it's like new york illinois um washington you know sort of a few others um i do think almost certainly we'll see you know probably 15 plus states that have a moratorium on it within the next like 18 years or a month i think the likelihood that like a texas or florida ever put a moratorium on this you know sort of zero and i think it's one of these like self-immolating more left you know sort of state habits where it's like yeah we're not going to have this like economic opportunity we're not going to like you know you know you know advance our grid it just seems like a you know sort of insane insane outcome the one place where this you know has a benefit it is you know um i admit that like i may not always be the most you know sort of bullish on space-based data centers but if you can't build them on earth the only option definitely good place to do it shout out shout out star cloud one of my favorite

SPEAKER_75: companies in the entire larson is this free money is this free money this 26 on polymarket uh i don't

SPEAKER_119: think it's free money uh i'd have to read through it a little bit more i don't know you think there's

SPEAKER_69: going to be a fat you think there's a chance of a federal ban i don't think that's what this

SPEAKER_48: polymarket says i was looking at it very briefly i think it's like a ban anywhere in the united states not at a federal level everywhere in the united states in a democracy where 80 in that case

SPEAKER_16: both parties are negative on it like i don't think it's a zero it's hard to conclude that what what other thing that 80 of people across the aisle agree about would you put at a zero percent

SPEAKER_113: chance of happening one more time alex let's read because the devil's in the details here i'm thinking

SPEAKER_59: about wagering here because if it is 24 chance people think it's a 24 chance of a federal ban i'm putting 100 dimes on this i'm going to collect my 24k yeah so let's just see if my reading comprehension

SPEAKER_06: holds up here live so here is the actual market rules this market will result to yes if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the us is passed into law by december 31st 2026. so my read of that

SPEAKER_38: was it is a ban across the entire nation and i think someone else read that as as if there's any ban any place but i that's just not how i think the whole thing here reads okay anywhere versus

SPEAKER_119: everywhere i think that's the arbitrage there so if we can understand that we could place a bet

David Friedberg: all right it's no markets i mean i don't mean to hijack the program here alex but i think we should comment um as five white men i'm delian are you a white guy i don't know i think so kind of

SPEAKER_134: somewhere somewhere like that you know definitely better than your average white man okay so as five

SPEAKER_60: white man what do we think of in mark andreason's comments on maxing and that self-reflection for

SPEAKER_135: entrepreneurs is a terrible idea i think we have to discuss this do we have the clip of him i mean it's

SPEAKER_35: i'm going to pull up the mark injuries and uh introspection quote right now from the david

SPEAKER_137: cerner podcast presented by ramp okay or not to ramp you don't have any levels of introspection yes zero as

SPEAKER_138: little as possible why move forward go yeah i don't know i just i've found people who dwell in the past get stuck in the past it's it's just it's a real problem and it's a problem at work and it's

SPEAKER_139: a problem at home so i've read obviously 400 and i think now 10 buyers of history-grade entrepreneurs and that was one of the most surprising things like what's the most surprising thing that you've learned from this is like oh they have little or zero introspection yeah like sam walton didn't wake up thinking about his internal self he just woke up he's like i like building walmart i'm gonna keep building walmart i'm gonna make more walmart so just kept doing it over and over again

SPEAKER_138: and you probably know if you go back before 100 years ago it never it never would have occurred to anybody to be introspective like it's the the whole idea of i mean just all of the modern conceptions around introspection and therapy and all the things that kind of result from that are you know kind of a manufacturer of the 1910s 1920s say more about great men of history didn't sit around doing this stuff at any prior point right it's all it's it's all right who wants to take the

SPEAKER_143: first shot at this i'm going to back clean up on this one and let me okay larson get in there

SPEAKER_119: my buddy actually sent him the youtube channels on maxing actually somebody who works with me here at harpoon and so that's how mark found out about maxing he's like hey what you're trying to say is actually this and it actually took off from there obviously my buddy didn't coin maxing neither did mark

SPEAKER_48: but ultimately that's what you know mark's been running with in recent in recent interviews and i think that you know it's an interesting point i mean i'd be curious is elon being introspective or is he just going and building and waking up and you know moving forward um so i think it's an

SPEAKER_28: interesting way to think about things i think elon's been pretty clear about this move forward yeah

David Friedberg: rumination is like very it turns out rumination which he mentions i i thought the key quote here

SPEAKER_60: delian was it's a problem at work and it's a problem at home and that was the tell for me

Chamath Palihapitiya: rumination is a very unique way uh and dwelling on the past is a really unique way to make your life miserable and what i've always found is people who have like obsessed about the problems in the past

SPEAKER_58: and who are fearful of the future and can't live in the present and you know have some purpose in the present um they don't they just don't accomplish a lot so if you're talking about this extreme pursuit delian if you're gonna sit there and be like i made seven mistakes in my startup and my career i made 14 more and there's 21 mistakes and then i went home and my spouse told me i had these other five things that i'm a up on and then you know what if i have another 28 mistakes i make in the future you're just going to be paralyzed and there's something magical about just having a purpose and executing that's i think what mark is talking about and it's for elite folks you need only watch michael jordan in a recent interview they um that famous uh interviewer from good morning um

SPEAKER_59: um good morning america interviewed him about his nascar team and he he talks about competition and it's like yeah no no i'm a miserable person because i'm so committed gail king gail king it's it's awesome interview anytime michael jordan's interview watch it if you haven't seen that incredible documentary last dance like that's who mark and drees is talking about extreme pursuit delian

SPEAKER_58: requires do not overthink this because if you overthink it you're going to be like well what's the point of bouncing a ball and putting it in the basket more times than the other person

SPEAKER_32: that's meaningful meaningless in the grand scheme of things your thoughts on maxing and rumination

SPEAKER_149: delian i literally had this uh prominent investor last week in dc come up to me and be like ito

SPEAKER_42: yeah i regret not having invested in the c round of varta and i think we just thought ourselves out because it was just like if you sat there and thought about it there's so many ways that you could have like thought yourself to like the failure case but like i should have just bet on the fact that you guys would just figure it out day by day and eventually figure out how to turn into a business it's like yeah i just like had this strong instinct that you are like wanted to start the business if you look at our like c brown pitch deck it looks nothing like you know what it is today if you look at the like early days of space it's not like they were talking about starlink in like the very early days it was like elon kind of went on this like exploration trip to like you know russia to like go buy some engines they sort of spat in his face he's like f that he kind of did it a little bit of vengeance he had a chip on his shoulder he liked you know sort of space things but like step by step you know sort of figure out how to turn into like the behemoth of a business that it is today but it has very little to do with like the original chip on his shoulder that he had from that and i think a lot of like the best businesses in the world look like this and so yeah i do think the greatest entrepreneurs look like that and i think the people that are probably happiest at home you

SPEAKER_152: know sort of look like that too where it's like yeah just don't overthink you know follow your instincts and just like you know go through what you got to do and i think partially why i have village idiot

SPEAKER_42: in my you know sort of bio on twitter it's like yeah i like originally got called that way back in the day by one of my you know sort of colleagues is like you know sort of branding of like you know what i do on twitter and i was like yeah it's actually like a thing that i'm somewhat proud of like yes i think i'm like you know smart

SPEAKER_152: etc but like i you know i think i you know sort of trust my instincts and go forward all right before

SPEAKER_26: sal jumps in i'm just going to read a definition of introspection so i feel like we're talking about

SPEAKER_06: several different concepts under one umbrella here introspection according to the cambridge dictionary is examination of and attention to your own ideas thoughts and feelings it does not demand rumination it does not really demand backwards looking or overthinking so are we actually

SPEAKER_16: talking about the right thing here so this was exactly what i thought when i saw the video i think mark's great and he's brilliant i i would take the other side of this where it's just like he talks about like never looking backwards and only looking forwards and then he goes on this long historical exposition about napoleon which is like hilarious right i i think i think there's an

SPEAKER_18: important distinction here between like therapy culture and like you know forced self-doubt and historical kind of you know looking back over the last 10 years of your business you look at the founding fathers obsessing about the greeks uh and the romans like i don't think it's bad to look back i think like looking back grounds us in our past and our heritage and and i think is is is kind of essential to to moving forward towards the future but i also think just sort of like whiny self-help

SPEAKER_16: therapy culture is is a deleterious thing so yeah i think both of those can be true i think that's

SPEAKER_35: absolutely right i think like i'm an anxious person by nature so i have to actively go against my brain

SPEAKER_06: spinning its wheels and doing what the investors who missed out on varda did but i don't think that is you know antithetical to also knowing how i'm doing or thinking about why i'm doing something because i think that just helps me be more accurate jason just more more

SPEAKER_66: direct and less frazzled and more focused so to me it's a positive in the direction you're

SPEAKER_59: describing if that makes sense yeah the context here larson is all about execution for entrepreneurs

Chamath Palihapitiya: and venture capitalists their partners who are placing the bets for that group of people what we've learned over time is making a decision quickly living with the results of that decision and not dare i say overthinking it too much is a much better strategy than spending all your time ruminating and debating and having decision paralysis so you know the reason this one hit a nerve is because it was a bit ambiguous you know is this is he dunking on the therapy or is he talking about what's the best practice the truth is the best practice is the person who moves the fastest who is the shark who is the most cutthroat who makes quick decisions iterates fastest fires anybody who is a ruminator and promotes anybody who's an executor wins in the game we play this is a rule set for the game we play just like michael jordan's advice is a rule set for competitive sports at the highest level this is not how to have a great life as a parent who's retired and who

SPEAKER_59: works to live this is the advice for 0.1 of the population that's how i took it what what did you

SPEAKER_165: take it as larson yeah to tie things into what you're saying we had a saying in the seal teams

SPEAKER_48: that effectively says that an average plan executed swiftly and aggressively is better than a great plan you know op you know executed in the opposite manner wait you're a seal larson i was you know i'm

SPEAKER_89: the only one that hasn't written a book yet so i i'll get on the i'll get on the train or thank you for your service bro congress is the new is the new book so i guess i'm behind um but yeah so i think

SPEAKER_48: that i think that that actually puts a bow on it for me and how i think about it is like listen we can overthink this or at some point you just gotta you know you one more time give me give us that quote

Chamath Palihapitiya: again when you first heard it and when you first implemented it tell us first first heard it in

SPEAKER_84: training so you know every every is a common you know quote that i'm probably butchering slightly

SPEAKER_48: because it's been a while uh but effectively the quote is that hey an aggressive plan uh or excuse me a average plan executed violently and aggressively is better than a perfect plan you know executed in the opposite manner so i think that actually works for startups i think it works for life i think it works for everything basically and there's certain situations where you can be you know longer term thinkers but when you have when you have a target objective and you have a mission to go on and it actually is important you need to go out there and overwhelm the enemy with overwhelming fire superiority and it's the same thing in business i mean delian's doing the same thing in his industry he's he's overwhelming the industry with overwhelming fire superiority against any competitor anybody else out there and that's why i respect him so much and the other founders that are out there doing building audacious things with that mentality here's the exact quote a good plan

SPEAKER_86: violently executed now is better than a perfect plan next week general george s patten i've heard of

SPEAKER_89: here we go excellent movie if you haven't seen it so with some with some introspection we would have known that it was patent so i guess we're maybe wrong in terms of like you know not doing no you

SPEAKER_180: violently executed the quote executed yeah violently executed listen i'm not worrying to look this

SPEAKER_183: up i'm retard maxson you know the maxing guy he's my favorite on youtube pull up maxing from youtube

SPEAKER_185: for a second delian have you seen him i have only just heard about it from larson yeah this okay so what i

David Friedberg: love about this guy is he shares my love of uh having a stogie at the end of the day sometimes go for a hike on the ranch he's got like his little mini backyard ranch and sometimes at the end of

Chamath Palihapitiya: the day i'm like i don't need to ruminate just go for a walk with my bulldogs i get out of stogie i smoke a cigar and i'm like i got a great life so he sits there with his cigar with his weber grill

SPEAKER_191: he hits the cigar friday friday friday's one of those days i don't know i i feel dude do you feel it look at the sun kind of shine you feel it's like a sundress there's like a you can smell the sweat

SPEAKER_195: or like a sundress wait people watch this yeah i it doesn't matter what he's saying it's how he's

SPEAKER_30: saying it he's just like friday friday good i i also have friends that smoke a lot of weed and sound

SPEAKER_203: like that they don't even have a youtube channel i don't know why it makes sense to me but i don't

SPEAKER_135: know he's like friday's good it's like a sundress i'm like sure i'm in fuck it friday is in okay i got it um all right this by the way people are losing their mind on threads and blue sky is falling right

SPEAKER_123: now if you go on blue sky right now literally it's like there's there's two bizarro universes x

SPEAKER_58: and blue sky and you put them together and the same story is like on x it's like a manifesto it's a it's a call to arms and on blue sky it's a with the greatest philosophers of our time we're saying self-reflection and here's the definition and oh my god it's amazing like we should all be like and i got so much out of therapy and i went to group therapy and i went to this therapy and changed my life and i had a positive experience it's so great i i recommend that every x user for every 10 hours you spend on x you should be required to spend 10 minutes on blue sky and vice versa the two services attacks it should be it should be the bubble tax it's a bubble tax sal perfectly stated if you get out of your bubble games it's a 14 we're seizing five percent of your bubble all right ro connor and aoc and tucker calls it all agree megan kelly five percent asset

SPEAKER_62: seizure of your of your maxing slash virtue signaling okay well we're on this very important

SPEAKER_06: topic because you don't talk to a commercial no no i'm not we're done all the ads are done all the

SPEAKER_09: ads are done i i blasted through them because your face was every time for if you're maxing get eight

SPEAKER_123: sleep that's a new there's a new metric deli how were you during sleep last night yes brought to

SPEAKER_200: you by whoop whoop is also got a new looks maxing didn't whoop just raise an enormous round yeah 10

SPEAKER_06: billion dollars yeah dude they're rocking rolling i was blown away by that so uh and because aura ring also raised an enormous round they're both looking at like what billion dollar years in revenue terms it really feels like hardware is is back with such a wild vengeance as the value of software goes down it feels like hardware is just skyrocketing uh but we are seeing some people like uh michael eisenberg from the left or aleph i'm not quite sure to pronounce that i'm talking about kind of a defense tech hardware bubble i'm curious what you guys think about the uh let's let's stop on your previous

SPEAKER_60: question which we should let the guys answer which is in a world of no moats suddenly having a

SPEAKER_58: hardware device tied to your software has made your company 10 times more appealing to investors whereas 10 years ago hardware is hard i don't invest in hardware now it's the opposite it's like there's no moats in software you better add a hardware component to this product so do you know what this whoop cost a year i mean i'm paying for it i think it's 20 30 bucks a month can somebody look it up i think i'm paying 300 a year for this which is a big number if there's a million people with this and there's got to be hundreds of that they must have a million subs by now right two million three million how many subs do these services have aura and whoop if they have three

SPEAKER_179: million at 300 a year this is a big number what the frick is this pricing page you think they

SPEAKER_06: make this easier to find i mean this is what claude's for yeah yeah i should have why why did i

SPEAKER_223: even do it the old-fashioned way they don't want it easy to find there's three maxing yeah dude no

SPEAKER_05: i'm just don't overthink it why would there's a difference there's three annual tiers one which

SPEAKER_06: is uh 199 a year or peak 239 or life 359 so i presume jason you're on the life plan i don't know i don't know man and uh whoop has more than two and a half million members worldwide as of early

SPEAKER_231: 26 heading into its ipo 2.5 million at 200 500 million in revenue 20 times revenue 10 billion

SPEAKER_06: that makes sense actually and they're going to do a billion in revenue this year that's their that's their target so yeah the numbers make perfectly fine sense i have no beef with the whooper or rounds i just think it's interesting to see how the hardware companies really seem to be um just just crushing the world right now while we watch software stocks just collapse on the public markets it's terrifying jellion you're not in your head you guys were early on the

SPEAKER_42: hardware front with all your andrewal investments yeah we also uh originally did the um series b of eight sleep um yesterday back in the day although like at 100 posts so like what you know the today that would be a seed round i guess um but uh but yeah i feel like you know we've always had you know sort of hardware and like you know the portfolio pretty proudly right like you know spacex early on and early on i think in my like you know set of venture investments that i've done i think probably something like 85 percent of them basically have like a material hardware you know sort of component both like consumer and enterprise and so it's been interesting because like i remember back in the day my uh former colleague now you know general partner at benchmark uh ever randall used to literally always poke fun at me he was like whenever there's like high margin high growth software like i'll do that if there's ever like super low margin capex capex intensive like hardware businesses that are negative gross margin send us a delian and that's kind of funny because i feel like you know benchmark literally just did like a spike investment you know into uh star cloud you know in order to uh you know uh you know poke poke back at the bear so um yeah yeah i'm definitely yeah i've been been

SPEAKER_06: long hardware and it's fun to see the vitale come around to it uh larson uh you guys at harpoon and founders are both in northwood right oh yeah yeah talk to me about about why what what attracted you guys to that company in particular because it kind of crosses both the space american resilience and um

SPEAKER_119: industrialization things first of all bridge is a force of nature so i think you know any any great

SPEAKER_48: startup needs to have a force of nature founder and i think she's absolutely one but ultimately when you think about you know access to space and all the data aspects we're talking about whether it be data centers in space or just eo ir satellites we are at a huge you know gap in the market in terms of bringing that data down to earth and doing it in effective modern way there's legacy incumbents in the space that just are not modernizing in a way that we need to do whether that be from a national security or commercially you know applicable way and i think she's you know really hitting a very

SPEAKER_239: you know nice niche in the market that is going to grow very very to be very very large and if she hits her milestones i think this is going to be a very big company very quickly

SPEAKER_42: yeah i mean you know i think what's underappreciated is as much as we're all seeing like starlink blanket you know sort of the uh you know sort of planet with you know sort of internet if you're operating satellites up in space you actually do not have that same internet access so you know at barter for example we get to talk to our satellites once every like two to three hours roughly for you know sort of 15 20 minutes and so think of a satellite effectively it in some ways is like a back-end server rack that you have access to you that you you know are shing into you and like communicating with but you don't get to talk to it 24 7. and so that requires like a lot of autonomy it's pretty frustrating and like makes operations you know sort of relatively difficult if you're like space exercise sure you can go invest into building out a whole ground station network yourself and they've obviously done that but if you're even varta which you know you know you know even other companies that have like you know sort of multi-billion dollar valuations you're still dependent on some of these like super old school providers the biggest one is a company called case at which is like a norwegian state-owned basically entity i think got founded in like 1982 it's like they're like software interfaces literally like fortran and ftp it's like it's not like they're like a modern api based system and so yeah when we like you know sort of met northwood it was just like this thesis that i've been thinking about for a long time but there just wasn't really like a great entrepreneur leadership going after it and she has like the best you know latest you know she um just had her latest around uh led by mina at um washington harbor who like deeply understands how to think about like these like project financing capex intensive how do you layer in like public you know sort of you know funds you know debt you know capital alongside you know sort of venture equity because it's the type of thing that's gonna have to go and build out a lot of basically physical infrastructure um here on the ground but on the other side hopefully i'll be able to talk to my varta satellites basically usage 24 7 uh rather than you know very intermittently

SPEAKER_237: right now i i'm confused by your lack of connectivity and i presume it's just ignorance but i know that aws and azure run um ground control communications set up so they like announced

SPEAKER_42: it and never did anything like aws basically like bailed on their whole like aws like ground station

SPEAKER_115: things so yeah nobody nobody's done it uh i'm kind of crazy um so you know maybe some of those companies may or may not yeah be future future well when they're now watching amazon and blue origin chase

SPEAKER_38: spacex it really feels like an extra mistake because now they have no base to stand on what a up yeah

SPEAKER_42: yeah obviously like amazon's you know trying to roll out amazon leo they just announced that you know sort of deal with delta which like again i think you know elon tweeted about it earlier today it's like yeah delta is gonna really take a hit on that like united at the end of the year i think has something like 80 of their like you know domestic air you know you know um airplanes are going to have starlink on it yeah at some point like i think a lot of us on this call

SPEAKER_248: almost certainly would prefer to fly united even it's like slightly more expensive or inconvenient timing if you know they're gonna have starlink internet on hundred percent i'm making my

SPEAKER_172: decision on what who to fly based on this like one thousand percent and united said they're

Chamath Palihapitiya: going to be a hundred percent i think jet blue also said they're going to be a hundred percent

SPEAKER_59: and i think delta just announced they're going to use the amazon uh starlink competitor so i i have a thesis that business travel is going to 2x 2x because of this technology i know it sounds crazy and i think people would pay i know they're making it free i think people would pay for a starlink subscription even if they didn't have starlink at home this is how it should be deployed if you get on a plane you get a low bandwidth for free like no video like whatever you get one megabit

SPEAKER_58: but if you pay for a starlink subscription of 20 bucks a month 40 bucks a month or you have starlink at home you have the 60 to 120 version then you get the high speed on the plane this would take starlink subscriptions to the moon i mean i guess they don't need to because united's picking it up but i will only fly united or especially on international where you're four hours over the

SPEAKER_62: ocean and they're like oh by the way you can't work for four hours we're going to just dribble in

SPEAKER_22: your texts randomly it's it's not so by the so can you put uh starlink on your jet your private jet um

SPEAKER_259: i don't have a private jet so i can't answer oh question didn't fall for the classic journalistic

SPEAKER_09: technique i don't i don't talk to poor people delian go ahead you were going to say something

SPEAKER_42: oh i was going to say just like uh you know we're not that far away i think from you know apple eventually just putting in a phase ray antenna on one of these things and now you have starlink coverage basically on your phone literally no matter where you are so you could be on your you know sort of pj that has starlink installed or there's a world you know i've done the exact physics on this but like you know i think if you like have a window seat basically and you have you know a face brand 10 on one of these even if the jet doesn't have it your phone still basically has access to you know basically starlink and that is true whether or not you're on a jet or you're like

SPEAKER_86: i don't know middle of the mediterranean what are they going to charge like three bucks a month to a carrier for this two bucks a month that's the rumor i'm hearing is yeah it's a little bit of

SPEAKER_42: a cabal like the first carrier to drop in some ways like they're you know it's always it's kind of bad for t-mobile verizon at&t etc because like their sort of moat is like their physical infrastructure here on the ground and so the moment that one of them starts to offer this in some ways they kind of break their like entire moat and like valuation and so you know i think it's more likely than not that like if you add up all of the carriers the united states and their valuations today i think that all gets transferred to spacex over the course of like the next you know basically 10 years but it's a question of like how long can they hold off until then and if you if you oh sorry go ahead

SPEAKER_16: if you look at the if you look at the broader infrastructure picture the ultimate moat is infrastructure right so like all these all these cell towers are just being leapfrogged by things like

SPEAKER_18: starlink you're seeing this kind of happen throughout the economy so i think base power is sort of like a modern take on how you distribute power uh you've got all these nuclear companies we were an early oklo investor for example that are that are out there kind of generating energy all these pieces of infrastructure are kind of being rethought and and to your point i think we're in this moment where where hardware is in vogue but i think it's also like we're coming back into contact with reality in a lot of ways all of a sudden it matters that we need to be able to generate a lot of energy really quickly and so all of a sudden people are thinking about generation and distribution of energy in a way they haven't in 100 years i think to your to your kind of point your question alex around military all of a sudden we're thinking an awful lot more about this after russia ukraine after iran like all these all these kind of um old old realities are coming back up to the surface and i think we're we're moving back towards reconsidering these these kind of critical industries which are actually the biggest industries so like energy is the largest market in the world right uh but but largely very very little innovation and so i think it's a huge opportunity for us to um you know reopen all these all these sectors that we have kind of seeded to inertia for the last you know several decades even among the tech industry have we improved the government

SPEAKER_06: procurement process enough to support a rapid enough purchase cycle for defense tech companies so they don't get stuck somewhere in in like delay hell because that's my concern with companies like sironic like i love what they're building i love that they raise capital but they're selling no offense largely to the navy which is an enormous bureaucracy uh which is part of a larger bureaucracy which is run by congress and so that just scares me from a customer profile point i think that we are

SPEAKER_274: and everyone throws barbs at you know the acquisition process but the fact of the matter is is that

SPEAKER_48: companies have been doing it for the longest time like you know for forever effectively a lot of our you know companies that we actually take for granted now whether it be you aws started as you know govcloud with the cia and other things like that these things have happened and it's part of the reason why we started our firm is that we didn't think that modernization in the public sector was necessarily required acquisition reform that said we definitely need acquisition reform we definitely need to get through the valley of death but i think that the people that criticize the valley of the death probably aren't the founders that are maxing and finding a way to get through to it in the first place and so i think that we do need it it is a good thing we do need to solve for it but that said i think there's always been an opportunity here and that was one of the confounding things to me when i you know first moved to the valley first started working working in venture is like this budget exists there is a playbook to do it it is ugly it requires lobbyists it take you know it takes all these things that are difficult and a different um you know muscle movement from a go-to-market versus like plg and things like that that everyone got spoiled with in the dot-com boom coming out of silicon valley and i think there is some some ways to go out there and get big lumpy you know contractual opportunities and you have to inform these requirements and build technology sort of like and make sure the government knows about it before you know it's it's pre-wired for somebody else out there and so it does take more capital it does take more patience but i think it's

SPEAKER_239: always been an opportunity and hopefully it's becoming even more an addressable opportunity for our young founders to go out there and achieve more efficiently yeah i want to i want to get

SPEAKER_277: answered this question though larson so i'm really curious about the harpoon perspective um people

SPEAKER_35: were talking about how andrew shares were the hardest things to get in the world that they were the number one thing people wanted to found secondary markets valuations are getting pretty hot

SPEAKER_06: we've seen a number of multi-billion dollar rounds going to american defense tech companies um essentially are we seeing too much capital going too quickly now that i'm opposed to them i'm just curious if we're in a bit of a defensive bubble i i think that we are and i think that it's you know

SPEAKER_274: but to frame it i think that we are always in a pseudo bubble anytime anything gets topical and hot

SPEAKER_48: in silicon valley or in the in the venture capital or tech community i don't think this is any different than you know the dot-com wave the mobile wave you know sas you know crypto so on and so forth i think there's people that were early to it like founders fund and others uh and there's people that are sort of like later to it and i think that you know price is what you pay value is what you get um and i i think that right now there is an oversupply of capital going in here and paying very very high prices for things that may not pencil at the end of the day but that said we are going to see more winners coming out of this space um it is my belief i think we're not only going to see the andrels we're going to see other solutions that are going to be large as well maybe not the same scale but i think it depends on you know your fund size as well if you have strong ownership at an early stage and you're have a reasonable you know fund size i think you'd be very successful if you're a multi-billion dollar fund and plowing a lot more money the upside must be much much much higher so i think that we are sort of like in this competitive pressure and i think venture capital and startups are sort of like real estate everyone wants to be have the nice home and the nice neighborhood and a great location and i think that that's how everyone is infatuated with ai and defense hardware right now and capital is moving that direction and prices are just going up yeah we

SPEAKER_06: need more for the military than just drones be they in the sky on the water or underwater larson so where where in defense do you think there's not enough attention paid where there's a lot of

SPEAKER_48: opportunity today i i think something that we're looking at is the supply chain for a lot of these critical components that go into all of these these systems so there's subsystems there's critical components many of which go all the way back to rare earths that are you know in china at hill and valley that delian put on we talked a lot about the pharmaceuticals industry pharmaceutical precursors and going through trials and all that stuff is just done much more efficiently and better at scale in china with automations and so ultimately i think that we're looking at really investors a lot are looking at the application layer which the application layer the things that gets the bazooka contracts it's the ceramics etc of the world that's the application layer products but ultimately i'd be really curious to see how people are reconciling domestic supply chain if we really are decoupling from china we don't have the domestic supply chain to fit into you know more recent ndaa and legislative aspects i'd be curious to get sal's you know take on this on terms of like how we how we sort of like you know um you know rebuild that how we re-industrialize all of that because i think that is sort of like the next the next frontier where we got to solve those problems whether the venture backable or not i'm not sure yet but we got to solve that problem so you're up there are alternatives

SPEAKER_285: on all these things so we we invested in a company uh called whetstone which is an undersea mining

SPEAKER_18: company and it turns out uh you we have known how to mine the bottom of the ocean for a long time uh just about everyone signed something called the international seabed treaty you know permit me a little bit of like a law professor digression here uh the united states never signed this thing and and the admin earlier this year issued an executive order saying we're gonna go do this because g just nuked the global supply chain for rare earths and it turns out there's tons of neodymium sitting there on the bottom of the ocean you don't even have to drill for it you just dredge um so i think there are a lot of options that are being you know sort of considered now that wouldn't have been considered in in previous previous eras you've got companies like vulcan mp materials and a lot of other folks who are out there saying hey we just as a as a sort of national priority need to make sure that we have access to these things and you know when those supply chains are stress tested and interrupted uh that's when you start to see both innovation and and people starting to spend more time on it so i'm actually optimistic about our ability to get ourselves back onto solid footing here but um it's encouraging to see the quality entrepreneurs taking these problems on you you didn't see that 10 years ago so i think that's that's been

SPEAKER_287: something that's been as an investor uh really exciting for us i think i think the important thing

SPEAKER_42: though is like these companies do need to stand on their own two feet like in the commercial market with their unit economics like it cannot be that the only way that you compete against china is with you know sort of significant and you know sort of like indefinite government support like yeah there's definitely you know sort of certain ecosystems in china where like you know the state propped them up for some period of time but they eventually got to like phenomenal unit economics i think my fear with some of these like re-industrialization projects that um united states actually funded even over the past like year year and a half is some of them i think are just like going down the total wrong tech tree that is just like trying to copy what china did 20 years ago in some ways just restoring it back to the united states first i think there are certain other projects um that you you know i think are leapfrogging ahead of china in a way that allows them to even without government support ultimately actually be the best you know as a commercial you know as a commercial player and so yeah similar to both you know larson and sal has been an area that we've been you know pretty actively you know investing into across the board and that you know sort of panel uh with alicia jackson and zach coinberg etc uh for hill and valley was basically my sort of like pet project it was probably the one that i spent the most time like making sure to put together because i was like it's just a topic that is not talked about enough senator young is really phenomenal on it alicia jackson's phenomenal on it zach's phenomenal on it there's actually a whole white paper that we put out um you know sort of same day of the forum on how to reshort this stuff back to the united states

SPEAKER_289: where are we going down the wrong tech tree from a from a governmental perspective because i'm really curious about where we're making these missteps delia that's not a gotcha question i'm just

SPEAKER_06: legitimately curious you were so confident when you said that i i'm curious where we're making errors so we can correct them we can't make improvements until we know what we're doing wrong

SPEAKER_291: um i like i'm gonna i think plead the fifth on that one i don't want to you know some name any you know sort of name slash i think some of these things will end up you know turning into huge lawsuits and people get hauled in front of congress and go to jail so it's all it's all maxi

SPEAKER_295: until the questions i'm gonna plead the fifth okay no no give me give me the question here like um

SPEAKER_06: more specific lee yeah uh one of one of the friends of the program says that the government in its industrial policy regarding uh reshoring and re-industrializing america is taking things down the wrong path so jason how would you define uh a positive industrial policy for the government

SPEAKER_38: tolerate resiliency while also not falling prey to regulatory capture and waste so give me like

SPEAKER_06: three examples of this we talked about the chips act uh let's do rare earth silicon production and uh

SPEAKER_60: new pharma so rare earths is the simplest one possible you're gonna you if you can figure out a

SPEAKER_59: way for the federal government you know to help work with local states and we believe in states rights it's the united states of america we have a system of you know um 50 different competing regions and they get to have some level of sovereignty i think the best thing to do is for

SPEAKER_58: the executive branch to work with the senators and the representatives from the local uh ones and say which five states would like to be the beneficiary of this large low interest loan that um it's a low low interest loan with an equity kicker that makes americans profitable like they could have been with the tesla loans back in the day remember solyndra tesla and fisker and one of the companies paid it back we got paid back with interest from that obama era uh incentive but we didn't get options or warrants in tesla and they could have very easily because remember tesla was on the brink so a very simple process hey you're a rare earths company we've got a billion dollars here you can ask for 10 million to 100 million loan the states can get involved if your state you know doesn't want to you know damage 100 acres in the middle of the forest and you're maine or vermont or california and you're precious about it or it's like very dense by all means opt out but if you're texas nevada

SPEAKER_59: you know utah and you want this commerce and you want this tax that's the way to do it is just give

SPEAKER_58: a give a loan and then give upside and then the american populace would own five percent of uh you have five percent warrants in a company that becomes worth ten billion dollars it's very simple incentives matter and states get to opt in and states get to opt out i don't mind this fact i have come to the conclusion after roe v wade becoming a state issue um that there is something incredibly important that the founding fathers figured out about keeping a um a nation from

SPEAKER_59: becoming controlled by a king which is states getting to opt out and this i think leads to the discussion of do states have any rights with ai and of course like california is going to go wild and they're going to regulate ai i understand that that doesn't fly with our industry whatever but

Chamath Palihapitiya: living in texas now watching people in nevada and florida crush it and run the tables on california it's kind of like the system works really well it's a better system to have states competing with each other and the federal government saying yeah it's an open competition and here's some money and yeah then then you don't have to complain if you're california and you're like we don't want you ripping up this beautiful state it's going to be perfect and pristine great that's what your populace wants awesome nevada how do you feel texas do you want data centers texas like hell yes we want data centers everything west of austin is like there's nobody there it's empty go for it rip it apart build data centers we're already ripping the oil out who gives a shit go for it we want the tax

SPEAKER_74: revenue we want the jobs awesome competition great for humanity but under your model jason the

SPEAKER_38: states get warrants when they participate so you would end up with some public ownership of private

SPEAKER_59: companies yeah non-voting okay yeah just like they they own the note they own the loan yeah so they own the loan so what's the difference between owning a loan that gets paid back at one percent or four percent and owning a loan as well as you get a million warrants for a dollar each and if it goes public

SPEAKER_38: at 100 you make 99 and you oh because i think the government will screw it up and i think the government when they have an interest in a company is going to basically turn it into the state operation

SPEAKER_06: in that case and squeeze out other things i'm going to pull the founders fund libertarian card here and say i don't like that idea okay it's too much intermingling of public and private money uh but but i like where your head's at and we don't have to solve this today but this goes back to the top of the

SPEAKER_18: show how you had how do we build an economy it's just you know we can't both be in a bubble for like hard tech re-industrialization companies and need the government to be kind of kind of like subsidizing it i think the way that that you sort of get more of this more of the innovation that you want is by you know pulling restrictions out of the way of these entrepreneurs who have incredible capital markets available to them there there are people who will fund these things that that did not exist in the past so i think i'm incredibly bullish on um this sort of re-industrialism re-industrialization and i think the way you get it to go faster is not to just kind of throw

SPEAKER_16: government money at it because so often when you throw government money at something you create a subsidy but then there's just so much regulation it's like you give them both things have to happen

Chamath Palihapitiya: shrunk and first is regulation right first is regulation 100 yeah after regulation if you still

SPEAKER_59: don't have like if it's still not economically viable sal to build chips in america and we know taiwan's getting picked up by china in 27 or 29 or whatever it is and the investment community is like yeah i don't i don't want to pay for a money losing fab that can never compete with what's

SPEAKER_74: coming out of china taiwan and china then what do you do so if you've gotten the regulation done and you still don't have an economic model then i think i'm going to fight both sides of your hypo

SPEAKER_313: one yeah we have not removed nearly enough regulation 100 agree 100 to uh saronic just

SPEAKER_16: raised a couple billion dollars to do exactly what you just said like you know it's the money

SPEAKER_18: does exist to do this and we there there are sort of a lot of investors who are not only patriotic and care deeply about the future of our country and our ability to defend ourselves and project force it's also that you know we think these things are really valuable right which is why i think you see can

SPEAKER_59: we think of another example like i don't know making commodity drugs or something like is there

SPEAKER_273: some other example oh you're just you're just saying whatever is the least economic thing i think the yeah i'm just trying to think out loud the hard case you're you're speaking to i think is places

SPEAKER_18: where you know there's extreme subsidy in the chinese government and it forestalls u.s investment

SPEAKER_16: correct our capital markets won't do it because just like delhi and saying we're looking at and saying there's no way to make money because they're artificially keeping prices low either because they're incredibly good at it and have a 20-year head start or because they subsidize it or both

SPEAKER_42: so those are those are tougher calls yeah okay yeah i think i think like um sometimes i like don't totally you know sort of buy that argument where i think people like think that the reason that like you know sort of shanghai is such a great place to like you know do consumer electronics is like because of state funding it's like no at this point they've just built by far the best ecosystem for that type of talent for that type of you know sort of production i think like you know in relation to you know sort of bio um you know so the best you know sort of attempted list in the past couple years was the like abc you know sort of uh incubation resilience right which was trying to like you know reshore and create the like wooshy biologics wooshy small molecules which is like a generic seed as a drug producer uh in china uh and bring that you know basically back to uh you know so back to america um but you know i think a lot of why they like you know ultimately yes it didn't end up you know sort of working out the way they wanted was like both didn't really figure out how to pair you as a public and private dollars but again there was no like you know actually studying china and looking at like you know how do you actually get ahead of that like a bit of why we she you know sort of you know works in china is like they just have infinite low-cost labor you know basically chemists

SPEAKER_165: yeah i think there's just some things here that are uneconomical and private venture capital or pe

SPEAKER_48: you know private debt markets are just not going to finance and i think that's where uncle sam needs to step in and say like this is imperative to our national prosperity and security we need to invest in this because you know it's sort of like you know during tarp buyer of last resort thing whether or not that was a good policy i think we have a similar type of thing that's

SPEAKER_52: happening right now we need to be a funder of you know last resort to get things on step to validate the unit economics and then let the private markets take over what mechanism would you use for that and

SPEAKER_38: what are some target areas to jason's point uh where you think that would apply i go back to

SPEAKER_48: the pharmaceutical industry i think is a great one i think it's like not talked a lot enough about i think it's extremely important to the health and our entire populace we went through a pandemic all of these things are really important and i think that's something that we need to you know invigorate here obviously you know semis and tsmc and all that stuff is is already talked about a

SPEAKER_52: lot and i think that we're making good progress towards that but i think you know thinking about the health and security of our populace that's one that's not talked about enough jason who should

SPEAKER_35: lead the nation in getting that done do you think should that be governors or do you think that's a

SPEAKER_59: federal question if only we had a business focused you know a chief executive in the white house who wasn't starting endless foreign wars and who was a great negotiator and had all the technology

SPEAKER_135: community and business community willing to come to the white house anytime he snapped his fingers we have like half of that right now uh unfortunately the entire administration has been distracted by a forever war if that ends like trump is on his way to doing this you know and it's i think michael

SPEAKER_59: bloomberg trump you know my uh you know jamie dime uh diamond eisner pick your ceo schultz ceo former ceo who becomes president who can explain this to politicians in a very deft way and explain to the american public that this is not grift that's really the only reason why people get upset about this is they think oh they're just giving intel 10 billion dollars because intel's a fuck up and they can't make a real business so they're giving they're maxing tax dollars to the most maxed company when you really just need to make small incentives remove obviously removing um you know the regulations great and then this is what i liked about the loan program is people opted into it they paid it back and if you

SPEAKER_58: just put a little warrant coverage in there then it makes up for all the losses i'm not saying it should be like the purpose of our government but in the case of we don't have pharmaceuticals you want a private public partnership you don't want the government doing anything except maybe protecting citizens you know they suck at whatever they do look at the education system look at our health care system we pay more than we pay two or three times any other country for health care and for

SPEAKER_18: education and we get half the results when people propose a government policy they're always imagining like a philosopher king administering it but actually you get the dmv like that's the important thing to

Chamath Palihapitiya: remember this is why singapore is so interesting to me have you guys been to singapore before

David Friedberg: one you haven't i have it's it's worth going um and just in that country the way it was set up by lee kwan you you lee kwan you who is like that's my government warrior ceo like war mode ceo they

Chamath Palihapitiya: have this perfect balance of anybody who works for the government that is the most elite job you can have if you were the equivalent of a harvard mba you came out of stanford you go work for the government there you get paid twice the private sector so they'll pay 400 000 for somebody to work and they're like we want the government here to be the highest functioning in the world not the place people who are looking to work 20 hours a week take a ton of vacation and you know get some pension it's literally the elites the elite performers not elites like in the way we use it here in america the most elite performers consider working for the government this incredible thing it's

SPEAKER_198: kind of like the navy seals larson where it's like you say you're a navy seal we're all like whoa

SPEAKER_333: that's legit we need all government to have that you need to have like 80 of the people that try out for any role in government don't make it because you're not good enough and like there needs to be

SPEAKER_25: that level of prestige and like those types of people that are in the seat and you know as opposed

Chamath Palihapitiya: to government being the place where people who you know can't get another job yeah like yeah and that's that's the turnaround we need i mean this is why you can say what you want about doge but um or just making the government smaller if we're sitting here and our industry is like you know what we can

SPEAKER_58: do this with 10 percent less people like our government for the last 50 years under both all types of government you know republicans democrats and everybody in between moderates etc has been like you know what the solution here is let's build the size of the government like that's never the solution more of adding more to what's not working is almost never the solution it's like hitting the accelerator while you're spinning you know on ice coming out of a turn you're like that's not what you do just hold the steering wheel straight and just ride it out like just adding more speed never

SPEAKER_62: helps a rocket that's off course right billion no and then uh you know so speaking of we are now you

SPEAKER_149: know sort of l minus uh exactly four hours to when uh you know humans go back to the uh go back to the

SPEAKER_341: moon for the first time i'm so excited tell us about this delian what is the story here why

SPEAKER_59: is this happening uh why is our government doing it what exactly they're going to go around the moon

SPEAKER_60: for 10 days with humans on the top of this artemis rocket like that's what i know why and what are we

SPEAKER_42: going to prove by doing this yeah i i thought there's this really phenomenal article um i don't know if it makes sense to you know sort of bring up written by this guy uh eric berger uh last night uh at uh ars technica um uh talking about like why for the first time he's uh excited about um you know sort of this mission versus he hasn't been for the past couple artemuses i would say post like the space shuttle era right the way she got you know sort of shut down um you know during um uh you know the obama era nasa just got really lost like it was just like a very confusing architecture that they were saying for coming back to like the moon and mars they're talking about basically putting like a space station in low earth orbit uh sorry in moon orbit as like a way station on the way down to the surface of the moon but they didn't really have a plan to get down to the surface we're gonna put a bunch of astronauts orbiting the moon but what's the point because like the whole point is like the moon has resources you can mine it you can build things there but like if you're in orbit around it you can't you sort of do that and he was like this time it finally feels different and a part of it like jared has just done some phenomenal work in the past like i think he's been you know sort of you know uh you know nominated or you know confirmed for the past three months he shut down all the nonsense all the things that just felt very confusing and vague and had no clear plan at nasa for the past 15 years he basically shut down this is the third time that this new sort of vehicle was launched but it's the first time where it kind of makes sense in a technical tech tree you know sort of roadmap where we're basically repeating effectively the apollo 9 10 missions which were basically missions that like went to the moon and got close to the moon but came back but we're basically testing the system and then we're basically doing that you know sort of same thing um this vehicle is basically flown you know basically three times uh the first was i want to say in uh 2014 um the second time uh and that was like really you know so low with orbit mission coming back uh the second time was in uh 2022 there the you know sort of spacecraft went much further and higher up and we practiced basically re-entering at a faster speed and this time we're basically going around the moon um the change that he's also made is for the next mission artemis three what we're going to do is rather than going back to the moon again we're actually going to practice docking with either uh starship lunar lander or the blue origin lunar lander which is um you know a good practice task for eventually that docking basically happening by the moon and then art of his floor would be ideally the first you basically boots on the moon and that's currently planned for i believe um is it a late 2028 um i you know the the rocket and the spacecraft honestly may or may not be the ones that we actually use to go back to the moon so a bit of this is jared sort of inheriting the um historical architecture but what he has pushed is like we are going to start launching this rocket way more frequently we're going to be flying the spacecraft way more frequently and i think that gives him the political air cover for like if in a year 18 months this rocket which right now has flown like you know three times in the last 15 years so not particularly high cadence if they don't get to jared's new cadence he'll probably just shut that program and then pivot fully to some like starship dragon you know blue origin blue lander etc type of you know architecture so um i think today is like super super exciting um you know going very very close to the moon and you know doing a really good practice basically you know for a lunar landing run um and the furthest humans have been away from earth in you know 50 53 years um but also i don't think we have like a super obvious like here's how we're gonna you know so get back to the moon and

SPEAKER_06: you know put boots on it you know immediately yeah but we're freaking trying and that makes me so happy the entire art of this thing the fact that we're doing it just brings joy to my heart delian i want to go to the moon myself so the faster we go there the faster i have a small chance jason are you excited

David Friedberg: you're gonna watch what show the church of the girls i mean i'm i guess i'm excited i i think i've become a bit numb to the excitement of launches since elon has is doing one every three days and they're so predictable now which i think says something it's kind of like are you impressed when i don't know like the i mean are people in japan impressed when they get on a 200 mile per hour bullet train

SPEAKER_198: no like am americans impressed when you get on one yes you know like but this has become the new

David Friedberg: normal like we're able to go to space every day i mean what is the cadence right now of um hopping on

SPEAKER_59: a on a um a falcon like the falcon is the one that goes up every two or three days now what is the

SPEAKER_243: number about so like 50 160 and what you'll love jason is in november of last year for the first time in american history we had more rocket launches that month than days in the month and that was the

SPEAKER_248: first time that's ever happened in american history that was falcon 9 and everybody else but basically

SPEAKER_183: daily now so basically basically it's like the trees right it's like getting the the b train or

SPEAKER_198: something like it's like yeah you can you can get the bus you can just show up at star base or in cape canaveral and hop a flight to space i mean that is mind-blowing where were we 20 years ago it was

SPEAKER_112: like there were 10 a year 20 a year i don't who knows it was like a couple of months so so we've now

SPEAKER_18: more time has now elapsed from the first moon landing to today than time between the first flight at kitty hawk and the moon landing so like in another way not quite not quite it was 66 years close yeah

SPEAKER_361: it's very close it's very close it's six years from kitty hawk to yeah yeah i mean the concord

David Friedberg: like you know this is like one of my big regrets is i remember i didn't have enough money to take a

SPEAKER_59: five thousand dollar concord flight but i remember the concord because i live you know i lived in brooklyn and it was you would leave out of jfk and like you would hear it sometimes and you would you know people you knew people who took it in new york and you could get to london in three fucking hours like come on folks and then poor uh what's the um boom is like now booms on a side quest not a pivot i incorrectly called it a pivot but they're on a side quest to make you know energy at data centers and i'm like for the love of god why don't we have

SPEAKER_362: the ability to get to japan in five hours man come on because then you would always be in japan jason

SPEAKER_198: yes okay am i i'm the blocker now like wait why can't we drive a hundred and twenty miles an hour

Chamath Palihapitiya: on the roads in america like why there are safe enough cars to have the autobahn why can't we just say the left-hand lane is for cars that have been built in the last 36 months that have these feature sets and go a hundred miles an hour you know if you're if you're driving with fsd at a hundred miles

SPEAKER_59: an hour in the left-hand lane and you don't have junkers and like vans from 1974 in there it would be completely safe like we just need to be a little more aggressive in terms of like or like raise the bar in terms of transportation it's like it's we're optimizing for the cheapest

SPEAKER_62: possible ticket and the worst possible experience like i just want to have inspiring transportation

SPEAKER_237: well after this conversation i'm pretty excited about the future in terms of compute and improving

SPEAKER_05: america's industrial capacity and going back to space so i'm pretty optimistic jason i think we're making good progress don't be so don't be so down no i'm just there's some things that feel like i need

SPEAKER_135: right now my personal i need to be able to get to japan faster or i want to drive faster on the roads

SPEAKER_59: and we're just come on i just the future's got to get here just a little bit faster if you had to put your money on if you had to bet on anthropic or open ai at this point at the same valuation is there

SPEAKER_06: the same revenue now alex am i are they it depends on how you count open ai is about a 25 billion dollar run rate the last anthropic number was 19 or 20 billion but there's a lot of questions about how they're doing um hyperscaler cuts and if they're counting gross or net revenue so it's a little bit

SPEAKER_135: okay entire net worth minus your primary residence has to go into one your entire fund has to go into

SPEAKER_119: one bet anthropic or open ai go who's first i'm going anthropic and probably something uh i'm going anthropic because like all the founders i know are using cloud code i think it's really sort of like taking off i think that you know the excitement of open ai also had a lot of you know tumult with it right with you know with sam almost you know being gone now he's back the spat with elon um i don't want to underestimate sam altman but i also think that anthropic seems to you have captured

SPEAKER_52: lightning in a bottle right now but they have their own issues department so on and so forth so who

SPEAKER_370: knows entire net worth has to be except for your primary residence has to be put in anthropic or

SPEAKER_18: open ai three two go um i think it depends what matters next and so uh you know you force me i'll

SPEAKER_16: say anthropic okay like anthropic sexy this week last week it was open ai i i think it's like what what i think what what matters though as between those two is sort of the business model like what's more defensible and what's more scalable um you know how what consumer versus enterprise delion i don't

SPEAKER_250: know if you've got a bet here uh we're over a billion at cost in both businesses so i'm not

SPEAKER_56: allowed to say which is my favorite child okay if your friend um alien uh say was asked this question

SPEAKER_250: what would he say your friend a little biased towards let's say okay how about this pavel s bro have my little brother who's the cto of a really cool company in new york definitely spends a

SPEAKER_42: lot more on anthropic than he does open ai and what is his what's your little bro what's your baby bro's company give him a shout out here uh silna health uh they basically uh make this ai that helps clinicians with prior authorizations so basically uh back in the day you used to like you know give care to your patient and then you'd submit that treatment plan you know back to your insurer and then they would you know basically either you know accept or deny it now they've sort of switched around the you know sort of work you know uh you know uh process where before you give care to the patient you're supposed to do a prior authorization and make sure that the insurance will pay for it ahead of time and so they help out with that newly mandated uh process and get you paid uh more accurately and on time go pavel all right this has been an amazing

SPEAKER_114: episode of twist april 1st well done sal larson delian and alex great job we'll see you next time bye