SPEAKER_00: if they do but one bump of trump they will become addicted but one bump trump of bump now if you think about the trump bump and doing trump bumps what happens is it rewires your brain it

SPEAKER_01: creates a sense of euphoria yes now it'll create a hangover the next day and you will feel brutalized but what happens after this bump is your ratings go up and it's going to lean your coverage

SPEAKER_02: too positive because you want more trump bumps and he brings the bumps you know he comes you know

SPEAKER_01: there's going to be five bumps per you know every half hour are you going to be doing 10 bumps an hour it's pretty intense you know like this is going to make keith richards and kate moss jealous

SPEAKER_05: like this is a lot of bumps elton john is going whoa this week in startups is brought to you by google for startups accelerate your startup journey with the google for startups cloud program get up to 200k in google cloud credits or up to 350k for ai startups plus training and guidance apply at startups.google.com twist vanta compliance and security shouldn't be a deal breaker for startups to win new business vanta makes it easy for companies to get a sock to report fast twist

SPEAKER_09: listeners can get a thousand dollars off for a limited time at vanta.com twist and assembly ai get maximum value from voice data with assembly ai build powerful products and features for your end users on the industry's leading speech to text models get 100 free hours to start building at assemblyai.com

SPEAKER_13: twist all right everybody welcome back to this week in startups i'm back alex as you know i got covid

Chamath Palihapitiya: yes pretty brutal luckily we had a lot of banked episodes we always bank three or four episodes and

SPEAKER_16: you did a great episode where you interviewed three members of the twist 500 the 500 most important private companies in the world well done yeah huntress sierra and tolbit so a couple cyber security

SPEAKER_19: companies and one company that wants to aggregate essentially media companies to kind of put their data together and license that out to ai really a lot of fun i love talking to founders it was actually four different twist 100 interviews over two shows because we also had the gusto chat with josh reeves nice he's interesting you know we have a lot of folks on the show kind of show up you can tell they're caffeinated where do you look at you know fighting kick it up his style is so much more like i'm building for 20 years we're going to go that's our direction we're going to roll and so you almost

SPEAKER_22: want to like nudge him into saying something a little bit spicier but he's like no man my model

SPEAKER_23: works we're a 10 billion dollar company yeah yeah so gusto is amazing i mean we i've used it now

SPEAKER_02: in of my own companies a couple and just great product you know that whole space of payroll

Chamath Palihapitiya: combined with hr it's just such a great category i can tell you 20 30 years ago when you started a

SPEAKER_02: company it was just a pain in the neck because you had to have an office manager an hr person real estate signing a real estate lease for three four or five years putting down one year of rent and what's

SPEAKER_01: called a letter of credit all of this equaled about a half million dollars you know when you were starting out right in an accounting department so it was very strange now the idea that you would hire an accountant in-house an hr person in-house have real estate holdings have leases it's just

SPEAKER_26: all been abstracted and that means more people could start companies and get to product and focus on

SPEAKER_19: product more so it's just great just to throw in one more point about that i love going back and reading books about startups in the 90s because they say things like well we had to raise a bunch of money to go buy servers and i'm like oh right and then they debate co-location fees and worry about their like their their uptime and you know you never hear of a founder who's gets woken up like 3am to go fix the servers because amazon's on it or azure's on it you know it would be interesting to see how many different expenses that a 1996 internet startup had that have now been completely abstracted to the point of being either an api or a managed service the half yeah it's it's definitely a half million

SPEAKER_01: to a million dollars per year of operating spend in dollars from the 90s and 2000s less so you're correct the first company we had we wanted to do email and we had the silicon alley daily newsletter this is before there was sub stack and mailchimp so what we did is we set up a bunch of qmail servers in the closet and it was about 40 000 worth of them we got a dedicated t1 that was 15 000 per month but i put all that together and it was probably and then we had a sys admin my friend brian alvey set it all up for us so you're talking about 150 000 a year to maintain this probably

SPEAKER_26: between people and costs etc or more no maybe 200 000 and uh but we said we're going to make 10 000 a week in advertising that's a half million dollars so we'll break even you know when we get to the 20th week of the year 30th week of the year everything else could potentially be profit so yeah it's just

SPEAKER_19: fantastic that you can go faster and and it's so cheap like mailchimp cheap sub stack free i really think that deep in my my brain stem that software is by too cheap by a factor of 10 compared to like

SPEAKER_03: the productivity people get out of it right old costs i mean if you were to just look at the power of

SPEAKER_42: email we use beehive uh now for the twist 500 which used to be called the ticker and we use coda for the

SPEAKER_43: database and if you were to do this in another era you know it would have been a quarter million

SPEAKER_01: dollars in you know software developers to build that platform or in the client server era you know

SPEAKER_26: fifty thousand dollars to buy the server software and you would sign a five-year deal so a quarter million dollars for five years and now you know you talk about hundreds of dollars and even you know mailchimp i loved mailchimp we used it for a long time but you know for newsletters which are free

SPEAKER_02: beehive became and sub stack became better options i think for people because they're free

SPEAKER_16: and free is a pretty good price or close to free you know essentially free even the paid version of beehive or what you pay in 10 of your you know paid subs to sub stack it's such an affordable fee

SPEAKER_26: that more people will use those products therefore they make up for it in volume so yeah good on

SPEAKER_41: technology yeah okay so i we didn't mean to start here we have other stuff that we actually have notes

SPEAKER_17: on and plans to stuff we haven't talked in two weeks so you had a nice break i take it a little vacation i did i went up to uh north massachusetts to a lake and a cabin and a golf cart my first time

SPEAKER_19: ever with a golf cart nice it's just an adult go-kart it's amazing it was so much fun my daughter loved it and it was just a blast i now have decided that we need to redraw all american cities strip out all the roads replace them all with golf cart tracks and we should all just be cruising with one

SPEAKER_51: foot out the you know out the side at like 11 miles an hour old drinking coffee or margarita it's

Chamath Palihapitiya: great i love it i am i i love a certain speed and the speed i love is somewhere between 15 and 30 miles

SPEAKER_16: an hour uh this is what an electric bicycle goes when i had my vespa in new york you know it was

Chamath Palihapitiya: topped off at 35 i had a little small one um and i do like that i like that speed for cruising because you can take things in you get where you're going you're not like zip zip zipping but you're kind of zipping and it's a nice feeling i i'm a fan of the that middle that mid speed yeah no i'm with you on

SPEAKER_19: this this is why i think when you're on the highway going 75 it's so boring because you can't actually focus on anything so you see nothing but if you're going 15 or 20 you can see every single squirrel rabbit dog you know it's all so it's with you so what we're saying friends is go out there and touch grass but on the show today lots of good stuff lots of good stuff jason's unified media strategy slash the trump bump then we rides ipo polymarket and perplexity everyone's two hottest companies out there today to chat about a bunch of money going to europe and venture capital i don't know how to enter this other than saying that something happened last night that a great many people tuned into and uh yeah you had a thought or two about it well uh elon did an interesting uh

Chamath Palihapitiya: conversation with trump and he pitched it as a conversation as opposed to an interview

SPEAKER_16: which i think is similar to what we do on all in as well which is it's a conversation as opposed to an interview where one person is preparing questions and knocking the other person off

Chamath Palihapitiya: face kind of thing but they went for two hours there was a lot of like um hand-wringing and uh prognostication afterwards and people are wondering why there was such a strong reaction to it okay i'm

SPEAKER_61: sure you have feelings you and i are both media guys um and tech guys so we have a lot of opinions

SPEAKER_02: on these things i just want to point out you know what i've experienced firsthand with trump and that i've been talking about for a couple years which is the trump bump i believe anybody who has a media

SPEAKER_00: property if they do but one bump of trump they will become addicted but one bump trump of bump now if you think about the trump bump and doing trump bumps what happens is it rewires your brain it

SPEAKER_01: creates a sense of euphoria yes now it'll create a hangover the next day and you will feel brutalized but what happens after this bump is your ratings go up so when we had trump on all in you can just look at it statistically they could probably added 50 000 subs in other words 10 more subs to the youtube channel those episodes went straight to the top and you can see the trump bump for weeks afterwards where people are still coming back to that episode it you know it kind of lingers i think it's probably got a million or two million uh views on youtube alone so then your mind as a

SPEAKER_02: person with a media property is well when can we have trump on again and this is the uh yeah there's

SPEAKER_16: the trump interview i don't know what does it say there in terms of how many million views okay 3.1

Chamath Palihapitiya: million views and it's a month old the average all-in episode i think on youtube just the youtube

SPEAKER_26: portion is four five six hundred thousand so it's roughly five times all right everybody you know

SPEAKER_68: being at a startup is a team sport you're not going to get there alone man you got your founders you got the early team members of course investors most importantly that first couple of customers right and you all work together to get your company off the ground and i have great news for you and your team google for startups cloud program is now a partner here at this week in startups and listen you all just want to know the number here's the number two hundred thousand three hundred fifty thousand these are the two numbers what are these two numbers you're going to get two hundred thousand dollars in google cloud credits and if you're an ai startup you can get up to 350 thousand dollars google is serious google for startups cloud program is here on this week in startups just letting you know they are serious about helping your startup the number is the number okay and there's two great numbers here ninety percent of generative ai unicorns choose google cloud we all know that they do a great job so here's your call to action you need to get these credits you need to start building you're going to find out everything about this amazing program google startup cloud program at startups.google.com twist okay very simple hit the rewind key bookmark

SPEAKER_16: this write it down i want you to sign up right now pause the podcast because these are big numbers

SPEAKER_74: folks they really want to support you i don't know how long they're going to do this for so startups.google.com twist all right let's get back to this amazing program so when you see

Chamath Palihapitiya: everybody doing this there's two ways to go you can either if you have an avenue to engage trump like

SPEAKER_02: fox does or tucker carlson with his new independent show megan kelly if you can get him you're going to be nice to him you're going to be engaging with him and it's going to lean your coverage to positive because you want more trump bumps and he brings the bumps you know he comes you know there's going to

SPEAKER_01: be five bumps per you know every half hour are you going to be doing 10 bumps an hour it's pretty intense you know like this is going to make keith richards and kate moss jealous like this is a lot of bumps elton john is going whoa uh now you go on the other side you're rachel maddow you're anti-trump you've considered him a threat to democracy whatever you're on the other side of the spectrum you can't

SPEAKER_02: get him on your program obviously he's not going to sit in all likelihood maybe one out of a hundred

SPEAKER_80: times but you're going to get excited to you know if you write something critical boom all of a sudden

SPEAKER_02: your ratings go up now msnbc fox would be the two perfect examples or maybe new york times and uh wall street journal but i believe the media is so obsessed with trump bumps they're so addicted to the trump bumps that there is a unconscious emergent behavior which is he fills so much of the room and you

SPEAKER_16: get so many ratings you get paid subs on the new york times guardian and washington post remember they were actually saying if you want more coverage of trump's crimes like literally that was their pitch subscribe help us cover trump's crimes more like literally was in the in the marketing so i think both groups are going to be responsible if he does get elected again for playing a big part in this one group for engaging him the other group for attacking anyway um it's an underreported story i think and

SPEAKER_02: that's a lot of what happened last night because the media business is a little bit threatened by the fact that sources are you know giving interviews maybe not to mainstream media and going around it to more direct you know the direct aspect of it it's a little threatening but i think it's the bumps that's

SPEAKER_83: the major issue what is your take on it so the last thing you said a lot of people view the media world

SPEAKER_19: through their own personal lens uh which is kind of grievance forward um that the media hates substack because blah blah blah the media hates first of all the media is the least cohesive coordinated thing ever so there is no media right the other thing though is i i think a lot of what you're saying about the trump bump is correct but i think it's it's more of an example of something that's a bit broader and more common which is the sheer power of celebrity and i would say that the trump bump that you're describing is similar to coverage of taylor swift for example sure um i think also coverage of elon himself if you put elon musk in a headline you will get a lot more people paying attention to you yes this becomes a a thing that the media could better ignore or not pander to if they

SPEAKER_31: were in better financial straits but right now with social media no longer being an effective driver

SPEAKER_19: of traffic and attention everyone's fighting for the same four boxes in a google search window yeah and so if all the people in the world are searching for musk trump or iphone 17 or i don't know musk tesla or pick your thing or taylor's concert then you almost can't not do some of that because that's where the the the people's attention is is going so i put the trump bump in under that kind of like broader umbrella um there is an example though to your point about people joking about um wanting trump to come back to be re-elected because it'll help them and the only example i can find of this was axel springer's ceo a couple years back he said this and then he was like oh i was kidding i was kidding and everyone was like well we know you guys we know you actually want him back because it would be good for your business but as a last note the average journalist is i think concerned about having something akin to stable employment much more so than setting media policy on this level

SPEAKER_41: but i'll cop to it if four people got in trouble and three of them were well known and one of them was not i know which one i put me at the end of the headline because i would like people to read my

SPEAKER_19: story which is clicks but i think that's become a relatively cheap and low rent attack of trying to cover things that people care about and i think that the media should do a combination of things

SPEAKER_41: people care about and also things that they don't care about yet and that's why i read the economy

SPEAKER_02: yeah totally well said and i think you know the you know a lot of things in life are financial it's resource-based and when you have competition like the media does now and it you know it's it's it's a it's death by a thousand podcasts and sub stacks and beehives and you know twitter handles and tick

SPEAKER_00: tock you know personalities you know it's literally death by a thousand cuts just like the network's

SPEAKER_01: experience when cable came out and that is at the core of this they they can't afford to keep the

Chamath Palihapitiya: lights on in many cases that's why independent media is doing so well because if you do happen to find your niche in independent media and you keep your cost structure low like you know this week in startups has nine eight employees i think three in sales five in production me and you i think it's

SPEAKER_02: nine of us yeah you know it's it's that's a pretty big team nine people but it's not 900 you know it's

SPEAKER_19: not 500 miles to feed one third sales and 25 producers i mean i mean that's literally like bringing money in keeping everything going getting it edited getting into us and to us i mean honestly i

SPEAKER_102: think we're gonna be more bootstrapped right i think you are the least important parts of the show to be totally honest because without the other people no show happens i want to talk about the

SPEAKER_17: actual interview though i tuned in for a little bit yeah i heard some of it yeah what do you think

SPEAKER_106: well i'm just the conversation remember it's not an interview right sorry okay so depending on your

SPEAKER_19: framing yeah i just want to say that elon's level of patience was greater than i expected i tuned in during the nuclear power climate change thing yeah and and the former president said something along i'm going to paraphrase gently here that the sea level is only going to rise by an eighth of an inch in 400

SPEAKER_102: years which is wrong by a factor from i don't know 50 or something farcical and musk in his infinite

SPEAKER_110: patience kept dragging him back to nuclear power like no nuclear power is good chum's like well i heard that fukushima is actually now on mars and elon was like i just saw as bad as you think and i he kept

SPEAKER_00: just yeah it was it was very patient i am i think you know elon is not obviously an interviewer by trade but you know he's a friend of mine and we've had countless conversations he's a great conversationalist

SPEAKER_26: and i think when you're interviewing the president and specifically that president right 45 having also had uh the privilege of doing it uh one and only president i probably will ever interview but you

SPEAKER_02: never know um i haven't really tried he is got a playbook like a medium right and his one of his

SPEAKER_01: great skills is his ability with these anecdotes and comedy and a little bit of timing is like a routine he got it from howard stern actually which was like a major media influence in the 80s and 90s and into the 2000s in new york city i was there for it i grew up on stern trump was a regular on cern and trump loved stern like at his wedding type level of love for him yeah you know it was really into him and

SPEAKER_02: there's a famous moment inside of the movie private parts where pig vomit uh who he named his producer

Chamath Palihapitiya: played by paul giamatti is like what's going on and he's like the ratings are up he's like how could the ratings be up what are they saying they're like well the people who love them listen for 70 minutes on average and you know the average commits 40 and and he's like why why do they listen he's like well number one reason given i want to see what he's going to say next yeah and he's like okay

SPEAKER_01: tell me about the people who don't listen he's like yeah they listen for 95 minutes he's like what they listen for 25 minutes longer it's like yeah it's like well why don't they listen he's like

SPEAKER_02: number one reason given they want to see what he's going to say next right trump took that playbook and it is why people listen what will he say next all right founders do you want to sell to bigger

SPEAKER_68: customers of course you do you want to get that acv trending up up up and to the right average customer value and you want to lower your churn of course and if you want to get to major buyers you're going to need to clear those compliance checks that means you have to have your sock two sorted out what's sock two it's just a standard and it ensures that companies keep customer data safe if you aren't sock two compliant you're not going to get the big deals but vanta makes it so easy to get and renew your sock two compliance on average vanta customers are compliant in just two to four weeks and without vanta it's going to take months vanta can also automate compliance for gdpr hipaa you know and all these other acronyms that are boring and tedious and it's hard work and that's why you get a partner like vanta so it's easy peasy lemon squeezy you want to get the big customers you got to have these acronyms all dialed in and they're going to save you hundreds of hours of work and they're going to save you like 85 on your compliance costs it's that simple and vanta is such a big supporter of this program that they're going to give you a thousand dollars off at vanta.com twist that's vanta.com twist for a thousand dollars off your sock two

SPEAKER_19: and it is effective because i was watching um political twitter i was also taking care of uh the baby my my wife had a thing so i was solo um caring for a sleep schedule but uh he called gavin newsome gavin newscom and oh that that is exactly that is such a teddy small-minded

SPEAKER_22: hilarious thing that everyone loved the flip side though is he does have an exposure problem

SPEAKER_19: because he's been going out there on the the campaign trail for so long now yeah when i tune in i

SPEAKER_22: i kind of it's almost like you're going to like see the same comedy set for the third time it gets a

SPEAKER_126: little flat it can be you know what if you if you do see a comedian do their shtick uh or and i see this

Chamath Palihapitiya: with old people old people kind of run out of life experiences so they tell the same 17 stories you

SPEAKER_14: go see your grandfather and he's like oh you know can i have a tell you about the fire that i rent to and i'm like yeah yeah grandpa and he's like let me tell you we were there he doesn't even hear you say

SPEAKER_131: that you heard the story 17 times my dad is also in his 70s and i have heard the story of how they redid their cherry cabinets in their kitchen probably four times i'm probably gonna get it four more times

SPEAKER_02: what i do like about that though is that it was something new it was casual um and you you have to ask trump two or three times to get through his shtick his bit his anecdote whatever it is and and i did

SPEAKER_00: that successfully i think twice in the interview and you know i was i only have 15 minutes of the

SPEAKER_01: 60 minutes we had with him or something yeah yeah yeah but you saw when i got him to i nailed him on down on abortion and i nailed him down on immigration and then i was gonna go january 6 but we ran out of time and i i was firing off the last couple questions trying to get him in and you know i i would i would have got him on january 6th as well but you have to ask him three follow-up questions and elon did that last night and i didn't talk to elon about techniques or anything but he did a very good job of bringing him back and kind of but spaces is peculiar because you also don't see the

SPEAKER_02: person in the reaction in a normal conversation we know when we're going to move on to the next thing

Chamath Palihapitiya: and because you know the person's like okay got it you know you you have all kinds of techniques as an interviewer to um you know move the conversation forward in other words to interrupt

SPEAKER_136: the person to stop them and you'll hear me on all in when i have to deal with three my three partners who are you know like they all want to talk for five minutes each and if they all talk for five

SPEAKER_02: minutes each and now we got three five-minute monologues and it really is a terrible experience for the audience when people do that so i interrupt and i try to move the conversation get the ball to

Chamath Palihapitiya: move around so one person is not carmelo anthony you know the ball and they dribble the ball for 21 of

SPEAKER_02: the 24 second shot clock which is just not good basketball you want i understood that reference

SPEAKER_01: so you know on the margin some people will get mad at me because they're sax fans and i interrupt the

SPEAKER_02: sax or they're freeberg fans and everything but when they get to two three four minutes you know like

SPEAKER_01: okay we should move the ball here there was a little bit of that going on which is very hard spaces is a little bit like a cb and you don't see the person so you're like okay uh tell me about your thoughts on the border over but people don't say over and so you you could kind of step on each other a little bit with that kind of talk radio format yeah what's great about it is you can pop it up it's freewheeling the limitation of it is you don't have visual cues and it has a little bit of a cb radio and i don't think either party were using headsets so i got to talk to elon though really what it has to be optimized for headsets as much as people don't like to wear headphones or whatever it would really help if they put in ear pieces or had a stick microphone of some type but anyway those

SPEAKER_144: are technical issues overall go in your child's room find an iphone case that's just laying there somewhere find the headphones that they never took out because they want to be they want to be cool

SPEAKER_19: and have airpods plug those suckers in oh the old school ones it's free and it's actually b plus audio quality and it's the cheapest and best way to simply go from yeah talking to your phone like this which i saw trump doing pictures of him doing this space and i wanted to be like dude come

SPEAKER_148: you're the worst you have the worst for av quality i when i saw that i fringed i was like oh my god

SPEAKER_149: he's on an open air microphone in a you know giant room yes that's going to create distortions and

Chamath Palihapitiya: that's why i think it sounded a little bit like he had a lisp did you notice that and people were talking about this lisp thing and i was trying to figure out is this like dentures a lisp or a little echoey in the room or some combination of it i i never got the definitive yeah if trump drank i

SPEAKER_151: would have said he had a scratch or two but he doesn't drink so it wasn't that he doesn't drink so

Chamath Palihapitiya: it wasn't a he it does sound a little bit like that as well like as if you were on drunk history and

SPEAKER_19: just a little bit just a little like five percent if it sounds like me after i've been to the dentist and they've numbed part of my face so i'm i'm gonna put a dollar on dentures which is a perfectly

SPEAKER_102: reasonable thing to have if you were elderly i'm not here judging um but also if you are going to go on a space with a million people and the richest man in the world and you're trying to run for the biggest office in the world but on some damn headphones and fix your teeth like i mean come on

SPEAKER_158: uh if that was what it was yeah but i didn't i i thought maybe i was hearing things or was my phone

SPEAKER_02: connection and then i saw the headlines and there was a large number of headlines that mentioned it as

SPEAKER_00: well so anyway uh overall there's a lot of other news today you know where do you want to go in

SPEAKER_01: terms of the big news i i'm really fascinated with self-driving and there's some ev company you and i love public companies i'm fascinated with the tipping story i'm fascinated with uber's earnings and you know what's going on in self-driving where do you want to go today we're doing we ride uh we

SPEAKER_40: ride i never heard of this company what is well jason's great so jason texted me yesterday he's like

SPEAKER_19: hey who the hell's we ride why are they going public what do we know about them and i was like well i have the f1 filing up i haven't read it so i i promise i go through and take a look for us we ride it turns out is a unicorn chinese self-driving company raised 1.1 billion 5 billion valuation is going public in the us this week we haven't seen a lot of ipos jason we've been struggling suffering from a lack of filings and kind of good listing so we care a lot and the company in this case is going to be raising a lot of money the actual ipo itself is going to be about a hundred 110 million depending on underwriting shares and so forth as you can see on the screen they do quite a lot of different autonomous driving stuff from robo taxis up to robo street sweepers which love it i yeah as long as

SPEAKER_23: they don't run over my dog i don't know yeah no no running over dogs that would be bad yes but also

SPEAKER_19: there's a concurrent place placement of like 340 380 so this is going to be a serious offering in terms

David Friedberg: of capital rates okay so we've never heard of this company this leads into my theory about ride sharing now i'm obviously uh still a big shareholder at uber and believe in the company i'm obviously a big tesla fan i don't own shares in tesla full disclosure very complicated for me if your friend is the ceo of that company and you have shares you could i understand you know get dragged

SPEAKER_99: in all kinds of craziness uh so i just it's not that i don't believe in the company but you own

SPEAKER_126: enough teslas that everyone knows you like them at four that's the most two collectors editions

SPEAKER_172: that i don't drive number 16 of the roadster number one of the signature model s is the first model s ever available to the public and then i have a y and an x and when i've had the y and the

SPEAKER_174: x's they both came out to the very old when you do your will though can you leave me the roadster the the the first one because that's okay i just have to let me just change the will because i have

SPEAKER_99: i gave that to my oldest daughter but i'll just switch that over to alex got it yeah thank you that's the one that's based on the lotus exige yeah it's it's the orange one it's amazing um

Chamath Palihapitiya: so putting all that aside there's a big question you know waymo's impact on uber and lyft tesla

SPEAKER_172: having the robo taxi event i think in october and november they pushed it back two months

SPEAKER_180: my theory has always been there's going to be five players to pick a number that i think figure all this

SPEAKER_01: out at the same time and by same time i mean within an 18 month window in other words okay they all get there in the same window to exploit the opportunity right if you if you get there three four years after waymo maybe you're going to be too far behind but if you get there in the same 18 months of waymo i think you're good and waymo's there right and waymo's been there for maybe a

SPEAKER_00: year of like really good solid no crashes thank god nobody's died not no major you know except for

SPEAKER_26: the hippies in san francisco being like it blocked uh you know an emergency vehicle then you look and it's like it didn't block the emergency vehicle anyway i see you like i think no no i i i agree with

SPEAKER_186: you on the hippies i grew up in oregon i i am familiar with the hippies you can smell i'm coming

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SPEAKER_19: just one of the places where i have no patience i honestly try to love pretty much everybody but people who are opposed to nuclear power and people who are opposed to self-driving are my mortal enemies along with the dutch these are the three categories i can't take um and so i just just it makes me so

SPEAKER_191: mad when they put you can say they're they're the r word reductionist that's like well jason that's

SPEAKER_193: an interesting point we're gonna move on now from that comment we'll take it i felt like some people

SPEAKER_196: are trying to bring the r word back ignore my friend here just ignore you don't need to you don't

SPEAKER_199: need to bring the r word back reductionist yes they are they are slow downerists if you will yes

SPEAKER_02: they're deceler decels you know and so i believe this uh we ride which is an obvious waymo knockoff it looks exactly like the waymo it's got the same exact design this is proof positive i think that this technology is going to be commoditized at a very very fast rate yes and i was driving my tesla in austin and i shipped it to austin and i was doing some 30 to 45 minute rides so i said okay you know let me just see if i can get the whole way there yeah the pickup and the drop off is super challenged

SPEAKER_01: when you're not in a contained space like san francisco or city because driveways parking lots like these things are hard to navigate you know and and people have gates at their houses or you're getting to the airport it's it's super complicated so i think self-driving's got a lot of work to do i won't call it the last mile i'll call it the last hundred yards yeah the hundred yard problem is real

Chamath Palihapitiya: putting that aside i would say one intervention and i'm on the 12 3 software so i gotta get 12 4 and 5 i don't know why i'm not upgraded yet but i think you know and watching the things online it seems like you're gonna have one or two interventions every hour or something which means they're getting very close yeah um so then it becomes a deployment problem and then if five people do get there already

SPEAKER_02: uber did a deal for a hundred thousand byd electric vehicles with self-drive a hundred thousand of

Chamath Palihapitiya: them like already and now byd might have big tariffs coming into the us but around the world globally they don't have that so you know you can have byd waymo waymo already has to deal with uber i don't know if cruise is going to get back into it you have this company uh that we just found out about that's a knockoff company and there could be maybe seven to ten people who get there and then whoever wants to win is either going to have to build an at scale competitor to uber and lyft and doordash or

SPEAKER_02: sell to doordash uber and lyft i think half of them are going to do the latter which means the real impact we're going to see alex is going to be the number of rides and ride sharing autonomous and

SPEAKER_01: regular is going to boom and the idea of owning a car is going to become kind of silly yes like uh and right now i think the total number of rides in the united states i'd say the ones that are done by uber or

SPEAKER_17: lyft versus private citizens you know or other means in cars it's probably one or two percent yeah

SPEAKER_144: i was going to say one to a hundred you know but i mean one to a hundred yeah once you have self driving even if it just doubles it that takes us to two out of a hundred so there's going to be a

SPEAKER_19: couple of fun tipping points one is when is the majority of uber's domestic rides done autonomously versus with the human driver and then when is uh self-driving the majority of all rides in the us that's gonna be much longer but both the things i'm very excited about you nailed it though the point about uh these companies are there is when can they build up a fleet that uses their technology to really try to capture a bunch of the market before someone else does so we ride is not a great company financially they actually had uh less revenues last year than in the year before and the first half of this year they shrank again so why is everyone piling in to give them you know five six hundred million dollars in this ipo i think it's because they want to build out

SPEAKER_31: their massive robo taxi fleet i think this ipo is literally a fundraise to put the cars on the road

SPEAKER_19: because their tech goes from l2 level two self-driving to level four which in theory actually gets beyond even occasional human intervention now that's what their prospectus says i'm not endorsing that but that's the claim so you you take an l4 level company that has self-driving revenues but sorry autonomous uh robo taxi revenues that are minimal put a pile of capital behind it to me it smells like a build out and that's why i think they're going to try to win but as we've discussed the chinese market is relatively self-contained so you know waymo in the us tesla in the us

SPEAKER_83: cruise in the us jason i'm so excited it's gonna be so much fun uh and you know right now the number

SPEAKER_01: of people dying in car accidents 30 40 000 a year has stayed static so you wonder why is that staying ecstatic when people are drinking and driving less turns out still a ton of people drinking driving yes there's also distracted driving yes um and so distracted driving i think is keeping our death toll high while drinking and driving might have gone down a bit because people who are drunk are like you know what unless i'm justin timberlake and i'm really smashed in the hamptons i'm going to call an uber you know justin timberlake suffering i don't think he can afford an uber at this point

SPEAKER_00: he would much rather get pulled over by the cops and get arrested and lose his license and cause a massive pr thing then god forbid one of his friends pulls him aside and says hey dummy right no need

SPEAKER_01: to kill anybody in your car you there's this new uber thing and lyft you could just press a button or you're justin fricking timberlake anybody at the club will drive you home in your own car and then they'll take an uber and you take a selfie with them wake up dude wake up dude well i mean the other

SPEAKER_41: side of that is once you reach a level of fame and success and wealth pick a category or power you

SPEAKER_19: you do begin to think that you are in fact different and different rules apply and i think keeping your head is the hardest part of that and justin timberlake's been a a name for what feels like my entire life well he screwed up he did give us a good meme though with the this is going to ruin the tour what tour the world tour i've seen that repeated on the internet i really enjoyed that just put

Chamath Palihapitiya: some numbers on it federal highway administration says americans take over a billion trips a day in cars 400 billion trips annually and uh uber reported 7.6 billion dollar trips this is 2022 data so it's

SPEAKER_172: much higher but anyway uh about 2 billion rides in the u.s a couple years ago so maybe there are three or four billion rides in the u.s which is exactly one percent you nailed it alex so you and i are both

SPEAKER_83: very close it just it's funny to me because i bet you for some people it's zero zero zero zero zero

SPEAKER_19: and for some people it's 85 so there's a class of folks out there who don't like driving like myself who will take an uber when it's raining because i'm not gonna walk or my wife's gone or whatever and i bet you know i for me i will go more places so this is not just a replacement it's also it's gonna boost the total tam for uber so i guess if uber nails the self-driving use case this feels like a 2014 conversation uh if uber nails the self-driving use case man their market's huge

SPEAKER_00: just astoundingly large 2007 i think is when that darpa you know uh self-driving contest was kind of going on and and everybody was sort of laughing about the cars driving off the side of the road and we're here 15 years later and i just took a ride from like the lake in austin lake travis to the airport with one intervention and now the pickup and the drop-off would not have worked in either of these cases so the last hundred yards have to be solved which i think is going to be brute force like

SPEAKER_01: okay this is how this airport works exactly what uber wound up doing they had to like define each airport manually send somebody there take pictures of things explain to you where you go kind of thing

SPEAKER_00: on highways i wish people were forced to use level two on all highways i think level two which is the car takes over two functions for you should be required on highways um which is lane assist it keeps you in your lane and then adaptive cruise control which means it doesn't let you plow into the person

Chamath Palihapitiya: in front of you those two things i don't know why those aren't by default turned on in all cars

SPEAKER_169: so jason do you ever drive a manual transmission sure i learned to drive on uh oregon logging roads

SPEAKER_19: in my dad's f-250 you know great car to learn to drive on because it had enough torque that you really couldn't kill it and so you could really learn to shift on it it's great uh my dad will probably never stop driving stick and so when i think about l2 and how it's just obvious it is for you and i that everyone should have this i think we just got to keep in mind that that car culture is so core to the identity of so many folks and they're just not gonna let go of it like it doesn't matter to me i don't derive any of my self-worth from it but i'm just one person so i'm sympathetic to the other side of that but you're correct um but i'm gonna move us along talk about two of your favorite things generation bet and also the world of ai because polymarket and perplexity are teaming up and did you know mr galganis yes that uh polymarket is built on ethereum i did not know that

SPEAKER_00: so people are placing real money bets on this prediction market on you know is binding gonna drop out or is jd vans gonna get replaced or who's gonna be the vp pick all these kind of real world events

SPEAKER_01: politics comes to mind now but other things can come up like sports and stock markets and all kinds

SPEAKER_00: of other profits but they use ethereum as the ledger is what you're saying so this was news to me i was

SPEAKER_19: prepping some notes on perplexity the ai search engine polymarket the prediction market they have a partnership so i was just digging in and i saw that they were based on ethereum so i went to dune which is the blockchain analytic service that we all know and use and i pulled a graph of how much people are using polymarket over time and then also uh the total transaction volume that's flowing through this is the polymarket daily volume chart but jason isn't it cool to see a startup that's raised a bunch of money and have public data of how it's doing this is the coolest thing because now i can see the inside information and as you can tell doing quite well lately uh total volume has absolutely gone through the roof and if you look at daily active traders it's also showing quite a lot of

SPEAKER_29: just very strong performance amazing i love it yeah it's not quite a hockey stick but it's getting close

Chamath Palihapitiya: um i think this is really interesting i love the idea of people placing bets they'll get things wrong

SPEAKER_126: you know people thought shapiro was going to be the vp candidate not um walls yes so why

SPEAKER_16: well it turns out like it's a very personal pick that an individual made it's like somebody picking what dessert they want to have like this could be the best dessert at the restaurant but the person

SPEAKER_149: might have a preference for you know tiramisu over the sorbet exactly you know everybody could say like

SPEAKER_01: hey this sorbet they're known for it it's world class they they buy their tiramisu from the bakery down the street it's mid doesn't matter kamala harris wants to have the the tiramisu she's gonna have it that was a perfect learning moment for the markets which is even though this person is the consensus this is a choice that is not based on the consensus or what makes the most sense necessarily what makes the most sense for an individual and so that's good to learn and this is the generation bet concept which i'll uh i'll debut here for the first time uh you helped me i gave a talk at kpmg last week and uh

SPEAKER_172: was in park city they asked me to do it i don't do a lot of these folks i get paid a ton of money to do them but i only do them for friends like once or twice a year but i asked alex to help me out on it thank you for the help and one of the themes um you know that we've been working on here on the show static team size where teams stay the same size we talked about that a whole bunch we we're trying to codify them one of the ones i want to codify here is generation like generation x or generation y generation bet what is gen bet it's the people who grew up on robin hood buying crypto

Chamath Palihapitiya: nfts and prediction markets and price picks you know and um what's the other one that's

SPEAKER_172: draft kings and sports betting and all this the this group of individuals and i was interacting with some people in the audience this is like serious people 200 really senior executive like ceo vc leaders of public companies all kinds of stuff and i said listen how many of you have a child who is wagering a

Chamath Palihapitiya: bunch they're in their 20s or 30s and you're a little bit concerned about their stock trading options trading nft trading crypto trading sports betting or prediction markets man a lot of people in the room came up so i did like a little i did a little audience work and i was talking to this one

SPEAKER_00: woman and i said well why are you concerned and she said well you know it's like he's really into it and i said is he up or down he said well he was down but now he's way up and i said okay

SPEAKER_02: hmm what you've experienced with your 27 year old or something is this individual is now a financial

SPEAKER_01: like it's almost like they went to world war ii and they came back as vets this is a financial vet like they have scar tissue they have trauma they have ptsd they bet on the the jets or the nets or some horrible sports franchise they bought you know nfts that went to zero this is what makes a great investor later in life the people who become great poker players are the ones who examine their play and have made stupid plays and and are grinding their teeth at night staring at the ceiling saying why did i shove it all in with my set when there were four hearts on the board i overvalued my set it's obvious with a four-handed hand or a three-handed hand someone's gonna have a heart yeah somebody's got that flush you bet into a textured board because you got you know to attach to your set of sevens like dummy that's generation that and this group when they become 50 years old in 20 years my own they're going to be able to place bets and wagers and investments and i don't know what percentage of the population it is who does let's say three or more of these things like they do crypto stocks and prediction markets they do prediction market stocks and sports somebody

SPEAKER_26: who does i would say three of the four that we've outlined here you you will have a brain design place bets you'll be in other words you'll be a venture capitals or entrepreneur yes what do you

SPEAKER_19: and i'm just gonna throw in a comma because some folks don't learn no and they don't turn it into a a skill and they end up not it well broke and then also like gambling addiction's not a joke

SPEAKER_186: that said in the same way that i even i a a recovering alcoholic don't want to ban everyone

SPEAKER_19: else from drinking i think we can discuss the harms and the benefits in the same sentence without being um contradictory so i agree with you at the same time if you do find yourself sports betting away your entire paycheck help get some friends go to a meeting take care of yourself but i do think though that the financialization of everything is changing culture and it's also i think changing uh or it's being changed by people who are younger at the lower socioeconomic strata who don't see a way to traditionally grind their way up and are looking for a way to short circuit things a quick thanks well i mean i don't want to be dismissive of it because you know if you're in 10 but yeah yeah if you're a trader you get a 10 bagger you know are we saying that's a quick fix to your career nah but i think people just look at the prices of houses that have gone up what 50 in the last like five years whatever it is yeah and they're like well my paycheck's gonna buy four percent i'm getting owned by inflation there's no way i'm gonna grind my student loans out and then grind up a deposit then grind out a house so i'm gonna go buy a what's what nfts are cool these days do we still

SPEAKER_83: like punks punks crypto i think they're all going to zeros oh um well uh fine i'm gonna bet i'm gonna bet on tim walls being the next you know democratic vp candidate or whatever it is and i'm gonna you know lay it out there and hopefully get a way forward people used to make fun of

SPEAKER_19: people who are poor betting on the lottery but if you go back to colin powell's autobiography and his parents discussion of their i think lottery when they let them buy a house yeah it was a way to essentially have an option on a different future that was very different from their trajectory and i i i'm i i hear it i get it it makes sense to me i do it well and also this

Chamath Palihapitiya: kind of thinking leads people and you're right listen some people are going to get addicted they're going to do stupid things and there's the risk of ruin and you know if you do it with

SPEAKER_172: the wrong individuals you could wind up you know with your legs broken uh yes not good right and so

SPEAKER_16: people can take it too far but you know i think this type of financial literacy is leading people

Chamath Palihapitiya: to discover really interesting things and um i think there is another and i don't know if we've

SPEAKER_02: given it a name yet but i think opting out of capitalism um opt out capitalism opt out i need to come up with a name for this but it's basically individuals opting out of capitalism or hijacking or hacking capitalism hacking capitalism hack cap okay cap cap yes so the hack capping is like looking at capitalism looking at this ecosystem and saying well you know how do i break out of the matrix and one of the most interesting one is called fire it's uh an acronym it stands for

Chamath Palihapitiya: financial independence retire early it's a movement defined by people as you can see here on

SPEAKER_172: investopedia really good site for technical definitions of um love financial terms yeah

Chamath Palihapitiya: they do a good job um essentially what you want to do is uh save up some multiple of the money you have and the fire number is 25 times annual expenses so let's say you're living off of 10k a month it's a hundred let's say it's a hundred thousand a year 8k a month something like that 8k a month 100 000 a year 25 times that annual expense uh you know is 2.5 million um now you can retire comfortably off that if you withdraw three to four percent during that time so let's just take a million dollars as a number a million dollars as a number if you took four percent of your principal out every year and you made seven percent in the market it'd still be topping off like three percent in the average year but you'd be

SPEAKER_00: taking out four so your million goes down by 40k but it goes up 30k or in a good year it might go up

SPEAKER_210: 10 percent bad year you might you know make nothing in the market so it just goes down that four percent

SPEAKER_280: right you go from a million to 960. but you will then taper off after some number of years with you

SPEAKER_00: know a little bit of money maybe to give to your kids and or to donate to charity but essentially get to a certain number it's a million or two million for most people uh living not in a major city with private school uh and um this kind of like financial literacy is to me indicative of gen bet

SPEAKER_19: and hacking capitalism yeah yeah i'm a big fan of the fire community there's also lean fire if people want to do a lower number there's fat fire for people like to have a larger total asset yeah i'm team fat fire oh dude me too i'm team fat fire because it turns out that i spent six dollars on a croissant this morning and uh was it chocolate or just regular no it was plain but you squeezed in the butter came out my daughter kept coming up from the slide at the park we were at and like

SPEAKER_41: stealing i'm like honey this is my this is my breakfast you can't she's like ma ma ma sorry

SPEAKER_95: you gotta yeah you're gonna have to learn that you gotta double down and uh you know these kids

SPEAKER_286: they'll just keep yeah we'll eat it later for two croissants i mean dude i'm gonna go broke

SPEAKER_182: it's so good though let it sink in though six dollars for a croissant i mean croissant is like what's peasant food i mean i know it's a stick of butter but i mean lobster used to be food for

SPEAKER_99: prisoners and now do you know what i pay for a lobster roll for my wife like 30 dollars i was

Chamath Palihapitiya: about to say in new england 30 dollars in new york or la 40 or no yeah i went to new england lobster company in san mateo and it used to be like i remember when it was like in high 20s yeah then it

SPEAKER_02: was in the 30s i went the last time was like 42 bucks or something i was like whoa so 40 dollars for

SPEAKER_295: sea bug slathered in cow fat wrapped in a mid pro mid roll like i mean it's just not

SPEAKER_158: makes no sense we've lost the script oh right but you're right there's lean fire fat fire and then

SPEAKER_02: there's also half fire so i think like a really interesting one is you could have a sub stack let's

Chamath Palihapitiya: say your sub stack makes 50k a year and you have a million okay we got the 50k coming in you pay some taxes you got 35k plus you got four percent off the million that's 4 40 now you had 75k so people are and then that keeps your brain kind of active so you're working two hours a day three hours a day

SPEAKER_02: three hours on your sub stack you make some little bit of money and so i encourage people to start

Chamath Palihapitiya: thinking about this because i think if capitalism is cutthroat the way it is and employees are dispensable

SPEAKER_02: and employees are not loyal then you have to protect yourself and i think gen bet plus hacking capitalism

Chamath Palihapitiya: and this fire movement and some of these other things living off grid being a homesteader

SPEAKER_02: uh you know and having your own chickens and eggs and and removing expenses like i think this is a natural reaction to capitalism moving into its next phase which i think is going to be a level of a efficiency in capitalism that's going to be disturbing to experience for people who participate

SPEAKER_19: in it on all sides where we're seeing this in a lot of places that there was the idea of lying flat in china there's also the the use of the phrase garbage time from the nba has been used in china to describe the garbage years people who are just thinking there's not a upside to grinding for 20 years like they're they won't be able to make a better you know space for their children to do better

SPEAKER_41: than they did and i think a lot of the things we're describing are actually pretty anti-birth right now that i think about it because if you're trying to structure your your your life just to not need more you're not having children and you know you were talking about you know part

SPEAKER_19: part-time fire and i was like oh i could have done that now yeah if i didn't have a second child yeah so you should be really glad that i'm having two because my second child is is brought us

SPEAKER_29: together and uh you know this job i do need this job because right that's an extra three more years of nanny and that's like 12 more years of private school oh god yeah it's something to

SPEAKER_19: consider i'm bringing us back so this started off with polymarket and perplexity teamed up just quickly wrapping this up polymarket has raised 74 million perplexity has raised 165 million it's a billion dollar company and the thing that i wanted to throw out there for people who are tracking the ai startups and i guess the gen bet startups i think we'll just call them that is the amount of deals they're doing so in the last couple months just this year arc and perplexity january sk telecom and perplexity february perplexity and it's working non-profits june perplexity and publisher deals july uber and perplexity august and then also this year polymarket plus substack polymarket plus moon pay and then most recently polymarket plus perplexity these companies are wheeling and dealing for distribution and i think just generally build mind share i think it's brilliant i don't know if they're they're going to become the next 10 billion companies but i do like the pace at which they're shipping and the pace at which they're they're signing contacts with other companies i think it's

SPEAKER_172: just smart yeah i think perplexity has got a serious problem um i think um i don't know if you saw but chat gpt open ai open ai has a perplexity killer they're playing with and they're going to have their own search engine and i know that's a big part of sam altman's plan historically because he was really enamored by what i did with mahalo he always talked to me about it like he was really into search engines like anybody in because if you think about the total amount of search revenue like a point of search revenue is probably worth 10 billion dollars right now in market cap right oh more um yeah so if you take google's total market cap and they have 90 search share 90 of their market cap equals 90

SPEAKER_282: of search maybe you take out a couple of points for youtube and other things but essentially 80 of their

SPEAKER_210: market cap is 80 is 90 of the value of of search so you just add 10 onto that and you you get kind

SPEAKER_151: of what search market cap is worth uh so 1.6 trillion divided by my my stupid microphones in the way of

SPEAKER_19: my keyboard because i don't usually need it for this i'm just gonna wolfram all for this but your point you know what your point stands it's an incredibly valuable thing perplexity got some early

SPEAKER_00: buzz my question is can they're built on top of chat gpt and i saw the ceo was like uh this is like that whole chat gpt rapper issue that they people were criticizing yeah like if you

SPEAKER_01: don't own the llm and the llm decides that your business is cool and they're gonna do it which you know if you haven't been paying attention sam holman's a bit savvy you know like pretty strategic guy perhaps uh some people might say cutthroat some people might say some some people are

SPEAKER_197: even saying yes who i don't know well no i mean the aria manuals everybody everybody says something

SPEAKER_26: like even worse like this shangali or something like really yeah trustworthy kind of comments but

SPEAKER_01: you know it's i think that they're they got a serious problem because i don't think their search

SPEAKER_321: is like that much better than using chat gpt and then chat gpt is gonna have a search in your face so

Chamath Palihapitiya: man you the difference between asking a question which is how the default behavior of chat gpt works right now yep and just typing a keyword right now if you go to chat gpt i have it open right now and i

SPEAKER_172: were to open a window um and i just typed in the word um uh tokyo tokyo it now says like tokyo the

SPEAKER_126: capital of japan and it's some key highlights about tokyo include and it's just giving me like i didn't

Chamath Palihapitiya: say a query right and when you used to type things in it used to be like what would you like to know

SPEAKER_02: about tokyo so already in 4.0 it's assuming i wanted this information culture landmarks etc you know

SPEAKER_01: give me a search result for tokyo vacation see what it does i wonder if it would like give me like a bunch of links but you know i think they're going to start um you know giving you like an actual search

SPEAKER_126: result which would be a comprehensive search result which is what neighbor would do there was um a search engine in um korea called neighbor there's only three markets where and this was part of my inspiration

SPEAKER_172: for mahalo back in the day so if i were to type in tokyo vacation in neighbor neighbor did something called comprehensive search which was not only would they give you the blue links but they would

Chamath Palihapitiya: then have a video section which you can see here they would have a hotel section and they called this i called a comprehensive search when i met with them because he said well we want to give you results

SPEAKER_172: that give you everything and i said so it's like comprehensive he said yeah so i started i called the comprehensive search when i raised money from sequoia and everything to do mahalo and my idea was to do this manually so take the search results that were there and use wikipedia style software to do it manually and you know we got a little bit of the way there we got to 10 million in revenue in search uh revenue and then google just cut off our search traffic so they wouldn't

SPEAKER_282: send any referrals we lost 90 percent of our traffic in the panda they did this deliberately there were a

SPEAKER_00: bunch of companies that were like ehow howto.com a bunch of people who were starting to do really

SPEAKER_26: good demand media was the company that kind of taunted google and i got really pissed off at the founder of that company because he was like we figured out how to game the google algorithm and

SPEAKER_00: google was like what excuse me and they just and he became public company and then google was like literally six months later they did the panda update and cut 80 of the traffic to all these sites

SPEAKER_17: and it was just brutal for everybody but i think perplex release toast yeah but if you know to rob any

SPEAKER_22: bank in the world the last thing you do is get on twitter x and say i know how to rob every bank in the world you shut up you don't you don't come on it's game 101 come on people no it's literally the

SPEAKER_305: scene from goodfellas where they do the heist and then one guy shows up with his wife in a fur coat

David Friedberg: another guy shows up in a new cadillac and he's like i told you guys not to buy anything and then

SPEAKER_19: they all wake up in the trash compactor exactly i want to go back to the will perplexity get open ai'd with search gpt yes same because we just posted a couple interviews on the twist channel one from

SPEAKER_29: antonio gracias um valor equity partners one from gavin baker from atreides management

SPEAKER_51: i was there for this song live loved him had been waiting for those to go up because they had two

SPEAKER_19: nuggets that i wanted to really talk about and they were about the value of ai models that don't have underlying proprietary data gavin said they're the fastest depreciating asset in human history and antonio said and i'm i'm speaking about him describing his firm not anyone else in any capacity but he said his firm thinks that if you don't have proprietary data you're you're zero yeah and that applies to open ai as well right because they're doing licensing deals yeah they don't have right so i wonder then if the entire like investment into open ai is going to yield a search company at the end almost more than an ai model company well you know if you

SPEAKER_00: depends on if you believe what they say like the idea would be that they're going to cap their returns and they just want to get to general ai and then give it to the world is kind of the idea so but i don't believe that i think it's going to become a commercial i think it's a commercial endeavor always has been always will be so as a commercial endeavor i do think providing uh an api is one revenue source providing a consumer product is another one and search could be part of

SPEAKER_210: that consumer product sure that will either monetize through advertising or the um uh the ability to

SPEAKER_01: pay for it i do think open source wins and i do think the large data sources win and i think that's where like reddit is a good pivot here reddit had um a heck of a quarter i know their stock was down but um i i have seen a bunch of people talking about reddit having surging traffic which i thought

SPEAKER_210: was like uh fascinating and i think they're having a hard time i think they're having a very hard time

SPEAKER_172: monetizing their advertising because the amount of traffic has gone up so much i also think they have

Chamath Palihapitiya: a peculiar cynical sophisticated user base that doesn't click on ads as much they do not yes that's

SPEAKER_172: correct as opposed to like a google search group which you know or facebook where you might have like the more dopey users who don't know what's an ad and what's not whereas like yeah reddit users are going to be the first ones to put ad blockers on to be cynical about stuff but um their market cap's

SPEAKER_230: still cruising around eight nine billion which i think that's fair yeah if they have a billion in revenue nine times revenue is pretty good that's kind of where we are is that right so tell us about the

SPEAKER_41: traffic too yeah so there's an ad week story that was discussing essentially you know what's going on with reddit two data points one publishers are talking about an influx in traffic from reddit and

SPEAKER_19: the context here jason is that the reddit ceo steve huffman has said that it's a real pain in the backside to keep people who don't pay reddit for access to his data from scraping it as much as they can and google has a deal with reddit so it's not a huge shock to see quite a lot of google traffic and reddit traffic intermingling and so forth but reddit is getting very large because users learned over the last couple years to type in a google search and then append reddit to it yes it will take you to a human written result as opposed to an seo slop bucket and today an ai generated seo slop bucket or eight sponsored links so i'm not shocked to see this from reddit i think the company is

SPEAKER_41: insanely valuable but unlocking that value is going to be very tough i wonder if really you subsidize the users for using it by just letting them play and then you just make money off of ai deals on the backend but everyone wants reddit and uh most of them don't want to pay it right now which i think is

SPEAKER_144: poor form from companies that have last time i checked effectively unlimited money if you have any

SPEAKER_230: red content in your llm you know um and you're commercializing it yeah yeah i think you need to pay

Chamath Palihapitiya: um i mean if you had like a couple of you know the the the hack around this is if a user had an llm on their desktop and they do a search and their computer then loads 10 reddit pages and gives them an answer that's totally legal by the way what you do on your desktop sure business so i do think way the way they're going to try to defend this is hey we we didn't scrape reddit but this user initiated a search where they said tell me the 10 blessed places to go in tokyo and maybe you could point me to some reddit conversations and then it goes and searches the web scrapes those pages now if they do it on their server that's one thing if they do it on the desktop of the user that's another so it's going to get very granular here uh but i do think reddit is an incredible asset and i've been thinking

SPEAKER_26: about putting a j trade on for it because i do think it could get bought for maybe three times what

SPEAKER_19: it's worth right now oh yeah there's no way you could pick it up for 15 right reddit would never sell because they i think they know what they're sitting on and in that same ad week story we were talking about a second ago according to data from sem rush which we've all heard of over the years between august 23 and april 24 readership on reddit effectively tripled going from 132 million visitors to 346 million monthly visitors now that is jason for the world of online a hell of a lot of people 120 million is a lot 132 millions more 346 is a bonkers number of total people so i think that it just shows that the reddit google partnership is going to be very lucrative on both sides and frankly now that i'm just talking out loud with you why the hell wouldn't google buy reddit oh maybe

SPEAKER_160: they can't you know lena khan but like yeah i mean but when the next administration it seems like

SPEAKER_01: reed hoffman told the world like and and told pamela listen lena khan gotta go um and then everybody

SPEAKER_19: on the right is like lena khan gotta go there's not that many lena khan supporters jd vance is like the only one that i can think of that's really weird bedfellows yeah he he i do understand like the

Chamath Palihapitiya: monopolistic like we talked about this like there should be a three-tiered structure yep over a

David Friedberg: trillion dollar company you can't buy nothing or it's very very restricted uh you can buy something

SPEAKER_230: like if it had very small market share you know mid-tier you you get some scrutiny uh and maybe some

SPEAKER_126: rules and then under 250 i'm for free for all woo yeah i'm ff like literally like what do they call it when you play fortnite battle royale battle royale yes battle royale under 250 billion so like if you know uber's at 140 and airbnb is at 100 billion they can they can f around free for all

Chamath Palihapitiya: battle royale they want to merge they want to buy doordash lift this that the other thing go for it

SPEAKER_02: have fun mazel tov if reddit and uber want to combine forces who cares that would be a hell of a it's who cares reddit and instacart i don't care lift and instacart let them go

SPEAKER_379: sync their ships together quantum computing let's just throw some whatever yeah blue apron and reddit

SPEAKER_01: who whatever it doesn't it does not matter right it's not material so battle royale and then everybody because who knows what if like a reddit and a doordash what if what if uber reddit and airbnb and doordash became one company now you got like all these hundreds of millions of users you've got all this on-demand activity and the and the combined companies worth 200 billion 250 billion okay now they can't they have to stop buying stuff they now they get a little scrutiny but now i got this juggernaut with a common user base it's like whoa you know could be interesting right yeah i mean you

SPEAKER_151: would have some interesting synergies with the uh integration of uber eats and and doordash that

SPEAKER_233: would actually be pretty fascinating for me from uh i mean lyft lyft could never get into

SPEAKER_40: deliveries at that point that'd be brutal yeah sorry whenever we do corporate combination bingo it's always a very fun experiment because you start to imagine these really weird companies

SPEAKER_19: that you could if you want to do in fact build all right i want to for everyone out there who's like jason and alex stop talking about other things and talk about venture capital um i have some data for us i want to talk briefly jason about europe uh we were all watching the olympics everyone's seen beautiful beautiful paris europe's much larger than just the city of lights and there was a fundraise that really caught my eye so how much interaction have you had with balderton the venture capital firm over the years zero zero okay they just put together 1.3 billion dollars for two funds 615 early stage 685 growth sift.eu said it was quote the largest ever combined early stage and growth fundraise dedicated

SPEAKER_29: to european startups and i just kind of want to get what's your gut reaction to hearing that does

David Friedberg: it matter does it not matter is big number small number listen uh billion dollars a big number uh

SPEAKER_172: and the european consumers have money they're well-heeled these are you know the the challenge of course is if these are european companies going after a european market is it's a fragmented you know

Chamath Palihapitiya: market and so it's like south america in that you know you got a hundred million german speakers you got 50 million people in paris and paris speakers you got 5 million in norway 20 million in sweden 5 million in ireland i mean these are very disparate disparate interesting different cultures

SPEAKER_02: so sure can you make you know uber or airbnb work across all of them you can but it's certainly not as

SPEAKER_00: efficient as making uber work for 350 million americans you know or a billion people in india or china

SPEAKER_210: so there are challenges to that space obviously we've talked about regulation is the other big challenge so it's really hard to get a big outcome in europe uh and europe is stopping a lot of the big outcomes so i think there's probably less competition for venture there which means you know having an indreessen horowitz of that area somebody with a billion dollars or two billion

SPEAKER_01: dollars to go do some big deals yeah um could be a good bet because i i think a lot of people are dismissive of that market because of the restrictions and the the fact that it's a

SPEAKER_41: not a monoculture it's it's many different cultures right but that is like essentially the conventional

SPEAKER_19: wisdom is that there's too much regulation it's too fragmented etc the things you just said and i think all those are valid that's why when i saw the belgerton number i'm like huh that's not what i heard so i pulled some data for us jason this is showing total venture capital uh disperse invested in europe over time and clearly 2001 2000 sorry 2021 2022 just bonkers years cut them out if you look at the pace of this year this is through q2 we're actually going to surpass 2020 in europe this year that is more bullish than i anticipated yeah and it's not going to be quite as big as 2023 by current norms but we are seeing a lot of money still flowing to european companies and the thing that i can kind of point to is one france and ai is doing a thing but like spotify is worth 60 70 billion clowns gonna go public soon yeah i think that there there is juice in those legs i i think there's more than we give them credit for sitting in the united states and i wonder what we're getting wrong because the conventional wisdom versus the data to me there's a dissonance there and i don't know

SPEAKER_186: what part of our analysis is is not nailing it it's a very weird market because if you look at the

Chamath Palihapitiya: unicorns uh they were centralized in the nordics very strange right like why is that i've heard a lot

SPEAKER_02: of different theories of why in europe they're clustered in sweden you know uh denmark etc um i don't

Chamath Palihapitiya: have an exact answer for that what people have told me is that people are the education system the

SPEAKER_02: focus level the design uh skills like product design skills are very high there and people are very industrious and it's cold and dark and people work more and they stay in offices longer now i know this

SPEAKER_01: sounds crazy but if you've been to spain or italy pretty great place to be outside and go have a drink and get some food and hit the beach you've been to norway and sweden freaking cold yeah and you want to go in and get some soup uh so i i do think climate as crazy as that sounds and lifestyle is a driver now you know when you look and you talk about san francisco versus new york and miami specifically one of the things i've heard from venture capitalists in my career and remember i started in new york as the silicon alley reporter covering a trade i started a trade publication specifically about that market yeah was new york's just too much damn fun um and you know there's a reason to leave the office at six or seven o'clock because you could go to a really great restaurant and go to a club after and then show up for work at 10 o'clock as opposed to working from 9 till 11 p.m in san

SPEAKER_02: francisco in the bay area as you know you know if you're in palo alto and you try to get food at 10 o'clock you're going you're i mean in and out burger closes at 10 o'clock like the fast food

SPEAKER_406: restaurants are closed by 11 o'clock by by nine i mean sidewalks at 7 30 p.m like you're done sunny

SPEAKER_41: vale downtown sunny vale is like nine buildings on one street like yes i've spent a lot of time there

SPEAKER_22: there's nothing going on it is it is work or sit on your basically right you know you can just either

SPEAKER_99: you're going to go do fentanyl on turk or you're going to work at google to one or the other very

SPEAKER_19: similar life trajectories in terms of uh intellectual output uh yes i do want to sorry i couldn't resist

SPEAKER_00: but anyway i do think that i do think that's part of it in europe is you know if you are trying to get and this is one of the themes that you and i have been working on related to this sort of

SPEAKER_149: hacking capitalism is like who actually wants to work hard who values lifestyle who lives to work

SPEAKER_01: and who works to live i can tell you the assistance that we have in manila in a you know from athena go to athenawow.com get a month off or something like that you know you go to with you talk work with those folks yeah they are like nikki and rage on our team are like i need more work can i do more work thank you sir yes sir i mean it's like literally being in the 1950s like in terms of like as an employer where people are like thrilled to have the job now you juxtapose that with canadians u.s workers european workers people in europe are like i need eight weeks off i need six weeks off like i'm i'm i'm not and i don't want to check my email after five o'clock but there's a law in europe and i don't know which countries are actually doing this if it ever got passed in the eu but there were passing laws and i believe france is the first country to do it employers cannot require employees to check their email on the weekend or answer the phones or whatever in other words when you're off the clock you're off the clock it's reasonable but it's also reasonable that people who want to advance their career could work on the weekends which is what i told one of our researchers recently i was like yeah do you take this job seriously and if you do i if i was you i'd do two hours every saturday or sunday checking your email and checking in with all the founders who are in your portfolio because you only have 25 and in two hours you can email you know half of them this weekend and half the next weekend and that's how you would have an edge on other venture

SPEAKER_280: capitalists in our firm and other our firm would have an advantage over other firms and now on

SPEAKER_19: sunday's high leverage output you can get so much done um just on the we have to go away in a second but i'm going to just squeeze this in on your points about uh climate and culture the reason why in the united states coffee culture has such a seattle basis to it is because it sucks to live there because it's raining all the time and you need a mid-grade stimulant to do anything and i say this as a guy from the pacific northwest i say it with love and then going back to your point about the the nordics and their blistering climate in the cold versus hot direction uh why is there so much amazing heavy and death metal from that area it's because they are sad and they are drunk and they are in the basement and they have a guitar and good music flows out of it so you you can see connections i'll just say though again talk about france it is the ai hub of europe and is some other data from pitch book in front of me here that it is raising far more than even israeli companies in terms of the total uh ai focused capital flowing into it so on continental europe making israel in there as a pitch book does it's um it's the leader so something's going on you know there's someone's going to be slightly down here and i'm curious uh but we got to go away friends and family uh we are back we are doing news we have lots to talk about the world is so interesting and now we'll take one question from the audience maybe two bobby v is a question for jason i'm going to just uh paraphrase this for you a little bit given the ai conversation that we had would you invest any of your own personal money into an ai

SPEAKER_29: modelish company and if so which one is your favorite i definitely would not i think because

SPEAKER_126: they're overvalued um and i think the winner is going to be open source i would invest in a company like hugging face or somebody who built support tools and a stack around an open source project so if somebody took llama from facebook and they said hey jcal i want to come to the accelerator here's my idea i take llama and i'm going to fine tune it and build a collection of tools around it for people who are working in audio and video uh or people who are working uh with accounting or you know and

SPEAKER_02: build some sort of open source extension to it and a hosting product or whatever yeah sure maybe something that was picked and tools and shovels based upon an open source product and in a language

SPEAKER_01: model i would do something like that i also think consulting firms like if you there's two ways to make money in the world equity value alex you know and we talk about stocks going public and getting bought and lena khan's uh reign of terror on the venture industry but then there's another thing it's called cash flow cash flowing businesses if you're three really smart cats in you know and have the ability to find two in a language model et cetera starting a services firm where you charge ungodly amounts of money and you have 10 developers in ukraine india offshore wherever that costs you 35 000 a year each and they're crushing it and you're paying them twice what they got paid at their job locally you could go chart charging you know for a multi-million dollar engagements to work with companies that are trying to figure out how to deploy and implement the software and that's picks

SPEAKER_02: and shovels there was a company called racerfish my friend jeff and craig started yes in new york and there was another one agency.com like those companies for five years agency businesses they

SPEAKER_172: wound up being bought by the larger agencies like bbdo or whatever like uh those giant roll-ups are

SPEAKER_16: in the advertising business those companies were charging 250 000 to plan people's websites and then they would charge five to 25 million dollars to build their websites philip kaplan talked about

SPEAKER_428: this in f companies yeah yes so there's just a huge huge opportunity there uh the thing i'm gonna

SPEAKER_19: throw in there is that if you ever get tired of me and ask me to not keep coming on the show um i'm just gonna go ghost right for vcs that's my version of that uh you could do it yeah i think they

Chamath Palihapitiya: would pay a lot of money i always wonder who writes aaron from uh aaron levy boxes tweets and he

SPEAKER_119: told me he does and i was like no way i believe that because yeah he's got to have a team there's

SPEAKER_433: some group of people in a room helping him brainstorm them he's just too good anyone else

SPEAKER_190: either that or he should quit and be a comedian anyone else i would agree with you but aaron levy

SPEAKER_19: i think it's actually um i think he's that guy i just think he's maybe he's smart and nice and i think that combination plays well on social media all right we gotta get out of here we gotta go we'll

SPEAKER_437: see y'all everybody more news next time bye bye