SPEAKER_00: hey everybody hey everybody welcome to the all in podcast with us today again the queen of quinoa david friedberg david sax the rain man himself and of course the dictator here chamath and let's get ready it's it's time chamath and sax here it comes everybody SPEAKER_01: sax is ready in the red corner representing richard nixon ronald reagan SPEAKER_11: and rich people everywhere david the rain man sax somebody's gonna do a corner representing SPEAKER_14: lbj underserved the forgotten the underdogs the woke left SPEAKER_32: and and i will also be representing john f kennedy who said arising who said a rising tide lifts all boat and maybe even some bill clinton bill clinton bill clinton i was gonna say don't forget really don't forget the champion of the left and the right yeah bill clinton did a great job he ended SPEAKER_40: he ended the welfare state all right so here we go folks um in in show housekeeping we do need to point SPEAKER_41: out that uh we we've been running some polls the fans of the show have been running polls and i i don't SPEAKER_40: even know why i'm bringing this up because i got barbecued in them but we have three polls we need to share with the audience from twitter the first is if you could have just one of the all in pod besties to mentor you and your startup growth who would it be and why looks like rain man you ran away with that one with 39 the dictator with 34 queen of kinwa coming in at 17 and uber's their fourth investor SPEAKER_43: came in with the measly eight percent i will tell you this is this is why 83 of startups fail SPEAKER_30: they choose the wrong mentor perfect so i was i was proud to win this one but the truth is so SPEAKER_51: tramath was slightly ahead and then i put my thumb on the scale by retweeting the poll because obviously my followers are more likely to vote for me so then i shot ahead and i kept real quiet because i didn't want to mark retweeting it to his 1.2 million followers and if he had done that he probably would have blown me out of the water but i kept real quiet until the time elapsed and then i and then i SPEAKER_55: shared it with the group no nobody keeps a track of uh followers but uh it's actually closer to 1.5 SPEAKER_56: the only person who knows your follower count better than youtube is phil helmuth SPEAKER_01: actually every morning phil helmuth subscribe uh subtracts his number of subscribers from yours SPEAKER_41: to know the net all right second poll came up thanks matt for this by the way matt yarger no friend SPEAKER_40: of mine all right per request let's do another poll and see the other side of the story if you could have just one of the all in pod besties moderate your podcast who would you choose and it turns out SPEAKER_65: the dictator 31 to my 30.6 a full one percent more than me i came in second world's best wingman and SPEAKER_41: rain man 21 queen of kingwa 16 and then most importantly which bestie would you want in your SPEAKER_43: on your side in a bar fight i will say a chamat smooth velvety voice that uh that ran away for SPEAKER_70: him here hmm thank you yes i think i think you know i think the audience is just trying to hurt jason SPEAKER_78: i think they're just trying to hurt jason that was it that was it jason has heard he's inadequate SPEAKER_79: by more than one percent for a long time i mean people usually it's measured in inches not percentages SPEAKER_40: somebody was dunking on me on twitter and they're like you are the poorest of all your friends i was like that's the strategy always have more powerful and richer friends than you then you don't have to worry about picking up the check okay uh and then there was another interesting ai breakthrough this SPEAKER_85: week wait wait did you talk about the bar fight what was the bomb curious oh the bar fight one hold SPEAKER_40: on i you're right i didn't get to that one uh the bar fight was oh here we go for some reason these morons seem to think that your stick legs are going to help them in a fight bro that's a SPEAKER_86: bad i honestly i i need to correct this like that was maybe bad lighting or a bad camera SPEAKER_90: no stop it no wait wait wait wait wait you know what you're holding up a pandora's box right now Chamath Palihapitiya: honestly they're not they're guys guys guys guys guys guys honestly come on they are not as skinny as people seem to be railing and honestly i'm i'm happy to you know if if there's a standard way of measuring okay you know what jason if there's a standard way if somebody can tell us what is the standard way of measuring leg circumference i'm happy to submit my my my measurements i don't think David Friedberg: they're that skinny they're really really anorexic it's super disturbing thank you you got a lot going on up top i'm very proud of you but below the belt it's not true bro i work on my legs a lot you know SPEAKER_99: it's it's keep working it's legs and abs to keep your back strong tell you guys one thing this SPEAKER_48: this uh podcast will win in a poll is the hosts talk about themselves more than any other podcast SPEAKER_105: on the internet we need to talk about each other in order to make fun of each other yeah this should SPEAKER_41: be called the naval gaze podcast all right here we go so uh besties that you most want in a fight queen of quinoa coming in dead last yeah i'm coming in at 17 rain man 32 and chamath i guess that thirst trap you tweeted got you 39 in that poll the other thing these polls is is why democracy SPEAKER_43: doesn't work but go on i can i can hold my own in a physical altercation i think yeah i think you SPEAKER_40: want chamath and i because i think sax is going to be under the table calling 9-1-1 and freeberg's SPEAKER_65: going to try to talk it out and get just absolutely sucker punch so like guys we don't really need Chamath Palihapitiya: to fight jason jason is the one that would smash the beer bottle create a shiv and say let's go let's SPEAKER_92: go all right i i would i would have jason uh i would i would actually pick jason as number one SPEAKER_80: if you were going to be in a bar fight jason certainly touts his taekwondo skills on more than one occasion he's claimed to be an expert in taekwondo can we pull up the video isn't there a SPEAKER_119: video of you doing where's the video where's the video of jason pushing hellmuth that's a fake news SPEAKER_92: video if you want to see jason and a grown man another grown 50 year old overweight man fighting SPEAKER_80: we have video yeah well i that that one i don't know if we should show but nick you should definitely insert the image of jay cal trying to do the taekwondo kick and it looks like he's about to have a SPEAKER_131: herniated groin insert that picture yeah it was from my 20s all right let's start jason what do you SPEAKER_41: got what do we got this week i guess the the topic we should get right to is inflation um this is a topic we've been talking about a whole bunch uh because we're printing a ton of money everybody seems to think the hedge against inflation is to buy bitcoin or do you put your money into equities and are we actually going to see things other than homes and education massively inflate we've seen some anecdotal evidence of this tesla increased the price of their cars used cars have gone up in price which is a function of the lack of production of some cars during the pandemic SPEAKER_62: so there might be a multitude of factors there but just putting it out there are we going to go SPEAKER_41: are we going to face inflation that you know goods and services are going to just go through the roofing cost or do we have enough efficiency in the system that the average consumer is not going to see massive inflation on the products and services they buy coming out of the isn't isn't SPEAKER_80: the isn't the real issue that chamas says inflation is good and he because it creates a quality and he thinks 1979 was a great year i think we should go straight to that all right let's give a general SPEAKER_145: discussion let's let's go i think we should go to chamath to explain his tweet storm and then i'll respond Chamath Palihapitiya: okay so i think david you got unnecessarily emotional and personal that was not again SPEAKER_148: these these were things that i've learned from someone who i will say without betraying him um is an extremely well respected person at an extremely well-known institution that basically has helped make a lot of sort of you know capital allocators very smart about things and has made people a lot of money so i was relaying what i learned through him so let me just relay that again and i'll just start with this whenever you have a dollar of income you can do one of two things with that income you either consume things right so you buy or you can save and you can put it into investments for the future Chamath Palihapitiya: right so consumption and investment the reality is that most people so the lower 60 of the income distribution essentially spends above their income right the lowest actually spends at so a dollar earned is a dollar spent and then the middle two because they have access to credit a dollar earned they spend about you know uh percentage points more than that when you get to the richest uh 20 of the population they're actually able to save and they save about 13 cents of every dollar and they're able to invest in the future so consumption and investment the reality is inflation comes through a volume of activity right so you as a rich person can go and buy one 100 000 necklace at tiffany's it doesn't move the needle for inflation but when you know 200 000 people buy a thousand dollar television that's felt in the economy it moves so inflation comes because of gross tonnage of volume so you need consumption and by definition what that does is it pushes consumption into those you know that 60 to 80 percent of people that are not the top 20 percent so what it means is that you know you have a volume game of people buying things and when they buy more of those things inflation goes up how do they buy more things they have more income because their propensity is to consume so then you have to ask yourself well where is this incremental uh income coming from and all he has observed which i think is very credible is we have the supernatural event in the pandemic we've now started to print trillions of dollars of incremental consumption and that's going to start to lead to the most simple ways in which consumption manifests in inflation which is via commodity prices what does that mean let me state simply a rich person lives in a well insulated house drives an electric car and eats fish a less rich person lives in a poorly insulated house lives you know drives a um an suv and eats beef beef versus fish as a simple example it consumes 20 30 50 100 times more input costs to generate that same pound of protein than a fish does it's just an example of showing how income distributions and the effects and the consumption patterns of large swaths of people drive different consumption behaviors which drive inflation so all he was trying to represent to me was that idea which is that we have printed trillions of dollars we are creating artificial levels of consumption that consumption will actually drive up commodity prices commodity prices will actually drive up inflation then what he told me was the best analogy again it's not perfect but it rhymes to the history is what actually happened in the 1970s which is that by having this sort of um boundary condition you have to ask yourself what will happen if inflation rips higher and you know starting in the late 60s through the 70s that's kind of what you had a same kind of boundary can forget the way in which the money got to people you know in this case it was a government check but in the late 60s and early 70s we had similar kinds of programs we had head start we have uh you know americorps we had food stamps act we had the social security act all of these things were transfer payments and when you put that much money into the hands of a large swath of people consumption went up commodity prices went up inflation SPEAKER_150: went up it peaked in 1979 but it also happened that when that happened the gap between the rich and Chamath Palihapitiya: the poor was the lowest it had ever been and so i thought that that was a really interesting thing SPEAKER_151: to observe okay sax you uh were triggered you were triggered by this well i wasn't triggered i just said SPEAKER_141: it was jama's worst take ever and then uh and then but david but david it wasn't my it wasn't my SPEAKER_161: thing you were triggered it wasn't my tape with the tape no no okay well let me let me explain let me SPEAKER_80: explain what's wrong with the take i created a powerpoint so oh boy SPEAKER_32: i pulled a chamath no it's not boring and chamath has done it too so don't don't even go there i'm SPEAKER_167: gonna do email you guys come and hit me up at the second half no no freeberg we're gonna keep the SPEAKER_152: friedberg index high so go ahead sax take us through the powerpoint what is what do you want SPEAKER_161: okay i'll i'll keep this quick okay so i've called the powerpoint chamath's worst take ever SPEAKER_172: oh no david david it says right at the top of the disclaimer here is something i learned today why is it SPEAKER_174: my take well you said you responded to me then saying that i didn't like facts so that was your SPEAKER_80: response so i am proving i'm going to show you some facts okay so first of all let's ask the question was 1979 a good year i don't think you can just cherry pick this one number the the genie SPEAKER_145: index and say that this was some sort of great year 1979 a severe recession begins which ultimately leads to negative 0.3 gd growth in 1980 the word stagflation misery index become household terms we had unemployment of six percent on its way to 7.2 percent in 1980 we had a 13.3 percent in inflation rate the prime rate for 30-year mortgage was 11.2 percent wow wow yeah trying good luck trying to buy SPEAKER_80: a house we had long lines of the gas pump there was an oil embargo do you guys remember the gas pump lines i wasn't born yet but go on yeah it was crazy and then you know jimmy carter declares a national crisis and confidence this was the so-called malay speech he was well on his way to becoming a one-term SPEAKER_145: president so what this shows is david that you know hold on that no no let me just let me just do the takeaway so the takeaway is that you know the genie index says 1979 was a great year and you know the the issue is the reason it wasn't is because it's a lot easier to make everyone equally poor than ever than equally rich when the economy does poorly guess what the gap shrinks um then margaret thatcher had a great line about this so long as the gap is smaller they would rather have the poor be poorer that's a great video everyone should watch on her last speech to parliament chamath chamath posted SPEAKER_80: this chart showing this was the the percentage of wealth held by the top 0.1 percent chamath we'll go SPEAKER_145: to you next to explain one two and three but let me just point out look at when else the genie index was plummeting the 1930s the great depression did a great job creating relative equality by making everyone poor so my point is yeah i understand there are these equalities but you know what creates inequality economic booms that's what creates inequality what we should care about is not just inequality but economic growth real wage growth poverty how many people are below the poverty line SPEAKER_80: and concentrations of power so that's what we should be looking at not just this genie coefficient let me stop there i've got other slides but i'll stop there and let you respond sax but go back one slide um Chamath Palihapitiya: the the the three points there were just uh interesting to me number one was uh lbj and the war on poverty and all those social programs number two and you spoke about this but i don't think you're doing a full accurate assessment what carter's what carter's biggest mistake was was he stopped the transfer payments because lbj started them nixon continued them carter stopped them and i think it's important SPEAKER_151: to frame explain what transfer payments are for people who don't understand well it's basically like SPEAKER_150: you know there there are all kinds of ways to get money into the hands of individuals you know we Chamath Palihapitiya: we now talk about universal basic income that's a way of transferring money from the government and from systemic holders of capital to individuals um food stamps was away the social security was away um there's all kinds of different ways welfare was away until clinton disassembled that so i i think that what what we'll never know is what would have happened if carter hadn't actually stopped those balance of payments and the the key point is about what happened then afterwards in three so you had this basically stopping by carter he didn't get to he didn't get to reap any of the SPEAKER_150: benefits of it reagan comes in and says you know what we're going to simplify the tax code we're going to defund all kinds of stuff including for example all the mental health defunding that he had already done in california that spewed people with mental health disease onto the streets of san francisco and los Chamath Palihapitiya: angeles and that sort of continued and then the real cataclysmic change on top of all of this which sealed the fate of that trend line happened uh in point number three which is when george george bush uh in 2001 had this really seminal decision which is he had the ability to block china from entering the wto and instead he left them in and he traded that for a vote on the security council and when you think about what really happened there you will unleashed one billion people willing to do anything at a cheaper faster and better rate you ushered in globalization you ushered in the gutting of the middle class of america and you transferred all that wealth creation that could have happened in a more inefficient but in a in a balanced way that could have benefited americans and you ship them abroad to china so i think it's just interesting to note that basically since 1979 we've all been singing from the same playbook and and i think that maybe what we need to do is figure out whether we need to come back to this idea of shifting the balance of payments back into the hands of individual consumers and all i'm saying is without making a judgment is when you look at what um biden has done in just in the first 60 days 1.9 trillion dollars of uh stimulus and a proposed three trillion dollar stimulus package we're just you know we're not even infrastructure package we're not even three months into his presidency and you forecast that forward it feels like we're entering an era of spend spend spend and that was an opinion of mine which i believe is actually fairly accurate i do think it will drive inflation i do think it'll drive commodity prices and i think on balance i do think it will suppress the wealth creation of the rich and i do think it will give folks that uh don't necessarily have SPEAKER_190: investments the ability to make more in real income which they will spend well okay just just SPEAKER_80: quickly so i'm going to begin by agreeing with the the part of chamath's um response that i agree with which is uh what happened around 2000 2001 which killed wage growth for the average worker chamath is right about that but it was it wasn't just george w bush it was a bipartisan disaster in 2000 bill SPEAKER_145: clinton pushes congress to approve the us china trade agreement and gave them uh full access to the wto this was basically temporary mfn and look at what he said he said economically this agreement is the equivalent of a one-way street it requires china to open its markets to us in new ways and it turned out to be a one-way street the other way and then he also said that for the first time our companies will be able to sell and distribute products in china made by workers here in america without being forced to relocate manufacturing to china will be able to export products without exporting jobs well gee the exact opposite happened so and then and then what happens in 2001 is bush makes this situation permanent he grants permanent what's called permanent normal trade relations which is basically mfn status in perpetuity to china granting them full access to our markets and chamath is right that that devastated the average worker because all of a sudden they're being forced to compete with you know foreign labor that's potentially making two dollars a day and is not subject to the same labor laws and environmental laws as workers in the us are so i agree with tramath about what happened then but but i got to go back and clean up this view of what happened between 1980 and 2000 because that's where i think we have this this disagreement let's talk about the SPEAKER_195: china thing for a second yeah we made a mistake there we got hoodwinked um we don't have access to SPEAKER_41: their market i think it's it would be good to pause for a second and say okay we tried this experiment for 20 years there was some good that came out of it our companies were able to grow and become the dominant players in the world like apple uh but an amazon right we did capture a lot of this value and a lot of people came out of poverty in china i guess on the margins that's a good thing we can all agree but it's a communist country and we basically enabled a communist country to become essentially you know uh our our counterparty in running the planet and in our leadership positions on the planet what do we do now in terms of unwinding this is there a way to roll this back or do we just mute it from this point forward and how does it become a two-way street or is that just not even possible SPEAKER_139: as we've seen with the nba and some other companies twitter google just not being allowed to even SPEAKER_198: operate in china who's we america the united states the united states i mean us citizens us companies global companies i mean yeah you know i think that the the challenge is your your framework right guys SPEAKER_148: i think i think there's one big thing you're forgetting in 2001 which is i think that bush actually traded away access to the wto so that they could guarantee china's vote when he wanted to go to SPEAKER_141: war with iraq which happened in 2003. okay well two two dumb decisions that got worse by being put SPEAKER_148: together all i'm saying is it was a trade it was a trade he traded he traded access to he traded access to the wto in return for their support for a u.n resolution to go to war with iraq look i you know SPEAKER_80: chamath you said that i was defending the republican point of view i'm not i'll be the first to say that george w bush was his presidency was a disaster i think it'll go down as one of the worst he got us into all these um stupid foreign wars in the middle east he began them i think the decisions SPEAKER_145: with china were a mistake um so i certainly don't want to defend that and by the same token i think the clinton years were were generally great years in america so this is not a partisan analysis on my SPEAKER_210: part what do you think though about the china concept here and how we would go forward and what's SPEAKER_48: what's the path forward with china i i mean again like i think it comes down to your objective and SPEAKER_139: who are you solving for um and uh who should we solve for democracy the human species well i mean SPEAKER_48: i feel like the the point of view that you know one government is innately better than another is being tested and proven right and wrong every day right now and um and i'm not sure that it's fair to say that just because the form of government that the you know that the chinese have kind of um adopted and used to govern their their their country and their people uh is innately wrong um there's certainly things that are innately wrong in many democracies and that are innately wrong in many uh non-democratic republics and so i'm not sure it's fair to just say that um you know that's really the objective is let's get rid of that communism i mean that was an easy kind of simple you know check that you could use a few decades ago as a way to kind of rally everyone emotionally towards some cause but um i i think there's a lot of businesses today that operate effectively in their own kind of geopolitical cloud and it's a little bit um of a kind of misstatement to think that an american company is an american company it's not that american quote-unquote american companies solely build their stuff and sell their stuff in the united states many americ quote-unquote american companies build stuff overseas and sell stuff overseas and global is uh globalization as much as we might want to kind of poo-poo the effects it's had on the average quote-unquote american worker um it really has transformed the way businesses operate with respect to um uh uh politics and countries um there's a god what's the book i can't remember the book but there's a book that speaks to how a lot of large multinational corporations today effectively have to operate as if they were countries into and unto themselves and so they have competing interests with respect to what the average american or the american government or the american people might have even though they might be quote-unquote american companies and there might be some intricate tie um and so i'm not sure it's as simple as we have to quote-unquote defeat china we are so intricately tied uh to the uh to the economy of china to the workers of china and vice versa um and i think that it's a much more complicated thing than you know here's our three-point checklist for how do we quote-unquote beat china and that's that's why it's hard and that's why i think a lot of smart people have you know kind of taken on and been challenged by and failed at trying to resolve a path forward where there's this quote-unquote looming enemy that is going to become the global economic power which strips the american uh uh people of of their influence around the world and you know that may be kind of the inevitability SPEAKER_217: of the 21st century i don't think that's a pretty dark inevitability if but i don't know if there's SPEAKER_202: a simple easy answer and i don't know if from from a business point of view let's say i'm a company i'm not sure i necessarily feel the effects of one quote-unquote country affecting you know having more influence globally with other countries than others it turns out a lot of businesses have greater influence than a lot of governments um and so you know one way to kind of think about the evolution of globalization and maybe even with respect to kind of the notion of what we've been SPEAKER_48: talking about decentralization is that maybe governments themselves become less important uh in the 21st century and it's the kind of decentralized online movements and and businesses and and you know other kind of entities that perhaps are not as regulated and controlled and owned by governments and you know maybe the big failure of the 21st century will be governments we'll see SPEAKER_221: chamath you have that's on uh i'm sorry that was a bit esoteric but um no no i i think it's yeah it is SPEAKER_148: the thing that you're not willing to acknowledge is that even when gdp shrinks it's like a it's a it's it's shrinking from a base where there's substantive growth year over year like you know are the gdp in 1969 when lbj was president was less than a trillion dollars and the gdp now is like Chamath Palihapitiya: 23 and a half trillion dollars and so it's been nothing essentially but a straight line up and so you know this idea that we the inflation causes you know the only way that we close the wealth gap is by making everybody poor is not true we're some people may be getting less rich at the same rate so they feel poor but the idea that you actually become poor is just not true it's a feeling that you SPEAKER_226: have but it's not rooted in fact so when you look at the wealth gap are you concerned about the gap or SPEAKER_139: are you concerned with you know the status of the folks on the bottom and how much their lot in life David Sacks: has gotten better yeah i mean i'm concerned with both um actually there i have a slide on this too Chamath Palihapitiya: i would buy this argument and i've heard this argument from before from people not as smart as SPEAKER_150: david i would buy this argument if gdp did something other than go up in an absolute straight line SPEAKER_145: no it doesn't it doesn't it does well hold on i i'm gonna show let me show gp in a second the first thing i want to discover is that part of the problem with the genie index is it doesn't fully account for government transfers this is something i didn't fully know until i researched it after your tweet stormed your mouth but basically only two percent of the population so the publicly reported stats are that 13.5 percent of the u.s population lives in poverty once you actually take into account all these programs and transfer payments uh it's more like two percent you can see this on this chart on the left here that the green represents the transfer payments by the way i'm not against transfer payments i think we need a social safety net i want the social safety net to be as effective as possible i don't want it to trap people in government dependency i want it to work i want it to get people out of poverty and into the opportunity economy but i absolutely believe we need a social safety net and we need these transfer payments and you can see that the green bars there make a huge difference in reducing poverty the genie index doesn't really take that into account well how do you fund this these types of transfer payments the more of a of a stronger economy that you have the more that you have a government the more that you have an economic boom the more that you see real wage growth and the ability to fund these programs let's go back to let's just look at gdp for a second so if you go back to let's go back to this period 82 to 2000 i call this the reagan clinton boom i see this as a bipartisan a relatively bipartisan period where under reagan and clinton you had gdp growth of almost four percent compared to the usual two two and a half percent by the way this is why reagan and clinton left office with huge approval numbers despite scandals remember reagan had iran contra uh clinton had lewinski none of that mattered really in the eyes of the american people because the economy was so strong and you can see that here and by the way it hasn't been this strong in the 2000s we've never really gotten back to this type of economy um you know since since uh you know 2009. SPEAKER_233: is that because of the economic boom of the pc and internet eras what would we attribute it to SPEAKER_145: the technology boom has a huge impact but let me just describe what started it okay what's what happened in 1981 reagan's inaugurated as president in january of 1981 he cuts the top marginal income SPEAKER_32: tax rate from 70 to 50 percent and i'd say equally important you had paul volcker at the fed he breaks inflation he jacks up interest rates causes a very severe recession in 1982 but it broke the back of hyperinflation and we it ushered in decades of declining interest rates you can see that on this SPEAKER_145: chart here interest rates have more or less been in the decline since paul volcker was at the fed what does this do it made the the um it reduced the the the the risk-free rate of return which leads to more investment in um in everything in everything it leads to more investment it caught it caused a rally in the bond market and the stock market and by the way no one remembers mod in a modern area i'm SPEAKER_202: sorry sex but like most interest rates for buying a home mortgage rates were over six and a half percent SPEAKER_48: for most of the um yeah it was 15 most of the last couple of decades yeah good luck good like buying a SPEAKER_148: home in the 1970s right like david david can you like can you actually be intellectually honest and SPEAKER_150: overlay aggregate actual gdp on this chart because what you'll see is it goes up into the right SPEAKER_242: independent of all of this no that's not true you can that is absolutely true and i'll just can i SPEAKER_243: share my screen now gdp growth rate versus no this is this is this is simple forget growth rate what is the SPEAKER_246: actual number right we're talking about the real number not the percentage growth because i was actually about to ask the real number guys this is great i know this is the change in gdp i know SPEAKER_250: i'm talking about great mathematics here guys the absolute number the absolute number keeps going up SPEAKER_141: and to the right because no it doesn't that these these these dots that are below zero are recessions Chamath Palihapitiya: those are changes from the year before so when you're compounding naturally no no no no no the green SPEAKER_145: and red bars at the very bottom are changes from the year before but these are absolute percentage SPEAKER_32: changes in gdp i know a recession a recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth so gdp can SPEAKER_83: go down david can i just show you the aggregate gdp growth from 1960 to 2000 and you can just look at SPEAKER_148: this and tell me what's what what is wrong with the trading economics website that that everybody else SPEAKER_233: would use yeah i mean i i think one of the things that i have is a question for everybody is SPEAKER_245: is there a is there a major difference between uh two percent two and a half percent three percent growth in terms of how we all experience our lives and what are we optimizing there for are we SPEAKER_86: optimizing for consistency or we opt in you know no recessions well this is what's interesting so do you see this chart right here it's perfectly consistent with the exception this is the aggregate gdp okay it Chamath Palihapitiya: started off at less than a trillion in 1950 something it was about you know a trillion dollars at 1968 and it's about 23 trillion dollars now this is the aggregate of what has happened in the american economy over the last 70 years compounding interest is an amazing thing now exactly right now this has happened in democratic presidencies republican presidencies when rates were at 16 percent when rates SPEAKER_150: were at zero percent so all i'm saying is we have a natural tendency and inertia to move forward the rate of change we can debate and obviously it has ebbed and flowed over years but the fact that it's towards Chamath Palihapitiya: moving forward and downhill with increasing momentum is undeniable and so again i would ask when we think about the fact that the natural tendency is that the next five or ten year period in aggregate will become bigger and better there'll be more of the pie to share why is inflation a bad thing because all it does is depress financial assets it drives up earnings and income which drives up consumption of the lower three or four quartiles of the or lower three quartiles of the earnings population i just don't see SPEAKER_80: why it's such a bad thing i think i think mild mild inflation you know in the two to four percent range is is fine and it's probably better it's certainly better i would say than two to four percent deflation but when you start to get runaway inflation like we did in the 1970s it massively increases interest rates and that makes it harder for people to buy houses and borrow money and SPEAKER_145: invest money because now the risk-free rate of return is higher and uh and that only applies i know but SPEAKER_150: that only applies to the top quartile of the population the bottom three quartiles don't give SPEAKER_80: a shit about what you just said because they don't do it um i i don't think people want to have to spend uh six hundred dollars on a loaf of bread you know that's it look you look at venezuela you look SPEAKER_145: at weimar germany you do not want inflation to get out of control and it can spiral out of control SPEAKER_245: because once people start to expect is that realistic though that it will spiral out of control given technological advances efficiency i mean what that's the backdrop that you are you are bringing Chamath Palihapitiya: up i think the the really brilliant point which is could it really even happen today because if you think about where we allocate our time and attention and consumption half of it by definition are things that are just so naturally deflationary we're all you know we're we're on youtube you know facebook tick tock all the time those are naturally deflationary sinks of time and energy and effort and money right so today to jason's point like i think that that's actually true i don't think that it's even SPEAKER_276: possible to actually have hyperinflation anymore where do we have hyperinflation nfts bitcoin equities SPEAKER_245: and financial assets financial and homes right i mean and that's a highly regular and and i guess healthcare and uh educate higher education those but pretty much anything that the government's involved SPEAKER_42: in basically well the government's not involved in nfts and bitcoin those are the anti-government SPEAKER_79: portfolio but but by the way healthcare inflation really started in obama because of obamacare yeah SPEAKER_279: anything that the government's involved in inflates yeah because if the government's paying the bill why SPEAKER_202: won't you raise prices there's there's no competitive market there's one customer charge whatever you SPEAKER_145: want etc so so so chamath to be clear i inflation is not my number one concern right now i'm just SPEAKER_80: saying that it would not be a good thing to let it get out of control that's all uh but it's not it's SPEAKER_226: not the biggest concern on my list your main concern is dunking on chamath for that tweet storm SPEAKER_174: no no i'm not dunking on him i'm he he dunked on me saying that you know it basically turned into SPEAKER_286: a bunch of 15 year old girls who said something and got misinterpreted on social media and now we have to work it out no no no i'll tell you i'll tell you my day and you the audience are the beneficiaries SPEAKER_174: no i i'll tell you i'll tell you my my main concern is this idea that economic booms are not a good SPEAKER_145: thing because you know god forbid the people at the top might get richer um that's the problem to that SPEAKER_245: then yeah i don't know if you guys have been following um what's happening with uh the head of operations at or cons i guess he's the head of warehouses at amazon amazon is standing up to elizabeth warren on twitter they're mixing it up did you guys see these tweets let's pull them SPEAKER_48: no what let's go what you haven't seen these no chamath didn't you donate like some ridiculous SPEAKER_55: amount of money to elizabeth warren's campaign no 25k just a little tasty poo it was a little teaser bet and i and i didn't like what i saw so i had to shut it down i shut it down on the turn the flop was not the flop you limped in you limped in with seven four SPEAKER_99: i limped in with seven four offsuit i put a little teaser bet out there i didn't like what i saw and SPEAKER_39: so i folded basically amazon is finally saying hey we're just gonna we're gonna stand up when elizabeth warren or bernie sanders kind of attack us and attack bezos and they just said listen you SPEAKER_245: guys set the minimum wage do your job we move the minimum wage at amazon to 15 an hour we made our decision get back to work and set the federal minimum wage of fifteen dollars an hour and stop telling us we don't pay our taxes because you make the tax law so essentially this dovetails with the SPEAKER_210: hearing i don't know if you guys watched any of the hearing with zuckerberg and everybody but SPEAKER_245: basically they were all it seems like big tech is just putting their foot down and saying just tell us what you want us to do because we're doing it we're giving people what zuckerberg what SPEAKER_145: what zuckerberg and dorsey basically said is that if you don't like that kind of speech then why don't you prohibit it instead of telling us to do it you can't and you won't because you know it's it's it's a violation of the first amendment so that yeah they were kind of pushing back on them saying SPEAKER_32: listen if if you have such a problem with it pass a law yeah and this guy dave clark you guys know SPEAKER_195: dave clark at amazon nope so this is the guy who's been mixing it up and if the audience is listening you can see a bunch of this uh on the youtube channel because we will put in oh wow he's Chamath Palihapitiya: he's like the number two guy there he he runs all he runs the entire retail business i guess yeah so SPEAKER_245: now amazon is on a full court press to engage with let's call it the socialist left um i guess they call themselves democratic socialists because they don't want to be called socialists uh and they're saying like listen we give people health care we give them 15 bucks an hour and if you want to tour the facilities to the facility but nobody is peeing in bottles and then of course the press and a SPEAKER_226: couple of people showed bottles with pee in them that drivers can't stop to even go to the bathroom which i think is a tragedy and horrible people should not have to pee in bottles i mean they asked me about on cnbc today i was like this is a serious question like of course nobody should be peeing in bottles but if you look at this exchange i think we're kind of hitting the end of this debate which is everybody kind of agrees we should have health care for everybody in the country we should have a 15 minimum wage why are we dunking and fighting with each other when we've got this SPEAKER_210: adversary which is or two adversaries with russia and china we have these two crazy adversaries who want to build authoritarian countries and control the economy and eventually control the SPEAKER_86: planet why are americans fighting with each other over these issues i mean this is this is just SPEAKER_148: incredible i just want to read it bernie sanders says i look forward to meeting with amazon workers SPEAKER_204: in alabama on friday all i want to know is why the richest man in the world jeff bezos is spending millions trying to prevent workers from organizing a union so they can negotiate for better wages benefits and working conditions to which he replies all we want to know is why the senator is one of the most powerful paul's and politicians in vermont for 30 plus years and their minimum wage is still only 11.75 amazon's minimum wage is 15 dollars plus great health care from day one the senator should save his finger wagging lecture until after he actually delivers in his own backyard to your Chamath Palihapitiya: point it is getting to a point now where folks are like all right guys so step up and change the laws um and change the incentives and i think that that's going to be really important saxie you had SPEAKER_148: something that you uh you were really miffed by uh what zuck said or something uh at the thing about SPEAKER_80: well well i what what zuck was trying to do in that hearing uh the the certechery guy what's his name uh ben thompson and thompson yeah i think it's strategy no no no no it's strategy no strategy SPEAKER_310: he literally said it he came to the poker game that we do at the d conference uh or the rico SPEAKER_317: conference whatever it's called co-conference and he said it's strategy right it's the worst name SPEAKER_00: that was ever created strategy anyway it's 100 bucks a year he's got like 10 000 people paying for it it's SPEAKER_318: crazy obviously what what that makes millions the way he okay great so the way thank you for that SPEAKER_145: thank you for that clarification what what ben thompson wrote the way he described zuck's statement is that zuck was pulling up the ladder uh on all the other social networking sites that might come afterwards and it was look it was one of those tactical maneuvers that's in facebook sort of narrow self-interest but it's so obviously in their self-interest that you know people slam them for that it's just too machiavellian and basically what zuckerberg said is listen we now have over SPEAKER_32: 30 000 people doing content moderation you guys should check you you the the lawmakers should change section 230 to say that you know you the social media sites only get section 230 protection the liability shield if you engage in this kind of content moderation but if you're a site that doesn't then you don't get protection well what's what's zuckerberg trying to do you know small startups can't hire 30 000 people to do content moderation so this is like classic regulatory capture but done brazenly SPEAKER_148: in the open at a congressional hearing i think you're right i think it kind of makes a lot of sense from him at the the game theory is pretty obvious which is like okay make it now impossible for anybody to compete with us and uh you basically lock us in forever it's it's pretty pretty brilliant the Chamath Palihapitiya: question is what do you think the odds are that politicians fall for this i think they're they're forcing their hand now so they don't have much of choice yeah well i mean the democrats on that SPEAKER_145: committee have basically been saying that disinformation is a huge problem and you the social media sites need to correct it you need to control it and so zuckerberg comes along and says SPEAKER_32: okay great no problem we've hired 30 000 content moderators we're going to do what you said in fact we're going to hire more and by the way if you really want to get tough about this why don't you modify section 230 to require it well how many other startups can ever hire that number SPEAKER_145: of content moderators this is creating a moat that will basically protect zuck and facebook forever SPEAKER_195: red capture yep and the other crazy thing in this was they this stupid format they come up with where they give each person who's you know a senator or congressman who's or congressperson who's doing the SPEAKER_245: questioning they give them five minutes so they're like i only want a yes no answer and you're like i'm going to ask you the most challenging problem in the world i need you to answer yes or no binary one or zero and it's like well that's not kind of how a nuanced issue works like section 230 this is going to take some time can i get one minute to answer the question two minutes to answer the question and so jack and uh zuckerberg and everybody just kind of threw their hands up they're like i can't answer this in a yes no can you ask me give me 30 seconds to answer these questions it was pretty ridiculous and then they were trying to get them all to say that their platforms were used for the SPEAKER_210: january 6 insurgency and i don't agree with zuck on much but he was like no i think the people who were involved in january 6 were responsible for it so whether that's the president or the people who broke into the capital they're the ones who are actually responsible for this you guys didn't SPEAKER_145: want yes so no i well i i i read i read some summaries of it and i think dorsey actually did SPEAKER_80: did a great job and i i like i liked his performance and let me read you a quote um mike solana tweeted SPEAKER_145: this so uh but he said jack said i don't think these decisions should be made by private companies or the government which is why we're suggesting a protocol approach to help the people make the decisions themselves that was jack dorsey now that almost sounds like me if he just changed the word protocol to first amendment case law so i don't want these companies or the senate judiciary committee you know censoring people i want to use a revered external standard which is the first amendment case law that's been developed over the last two centuries so jack wants to use a protocol okay but SPEAKER_32: fine but he's on the right track here which is he's saying look we don't want to be in the business of having this power to decide who's going to have access to you know to the town square and that's SPEAKER_333: a step in the right direction but he's also got a project there to turn social networks into open SPEAKER_245: standards so in other words the way we can all anybody can make an email client because email is an open standard anybody can build a web page or a browser because html is an open standard he wants to do that and he's working on that inside of twitter where anybody is going to be able to take their tweets and they're going to be decentralized uh there there's going to be no central server and you're going to be able to bring your own algorithm so if you feel the algorithm is causing you to see extreme views you can say i want mine to only lean towards i want this one that leads towards positivity SPEAKER_226: and kindness right and somebody can make a third party there's a algorithm that gets rid of jerks SPEAKER_148: you guys probably saw this week but uh a deal was announced an investment was announced uh andreessen sequoia myself and a few others we did this thing called bit clout oh i heard about this yeah so what is it just to give you a sense of it it's like i've been hearing about it separately from a bunch of people yeah so i mean like the in a nutshell you know what these Chamath Palihapitiya: guys did was they said okay well you know we're just going to take you know this entire blockchain concept and we're going to fork it and we're going to create this thing where folks can um essentially have one blockchain they can you know uh have content around it and then identify sort of people and nodes and all of a sudden like we all have this currency that sits on top of this bit cloud currency and why that's interesting is their first um app that they built on top of this was basically a kind of a clone of twitter just kind of as a proof of concept app and uh i think jason it's moving to a place where now people with reputation and um people with trust can actually signal that they have it and then that's a probably a better way over time for for for folks like us to figure out um what is valuable and not valuable what is trustworthy or not irrespective of whichever end of the spectrum it's coming in off of and then if there is disinformation you know that person's quote unquote cloud stock right that their token will fall in value um there'll probably be a lot of interesting apps that are built on top of this i was really um drawn to the general idea of the project and i think that's what andresen and sequoia probably felt as well so you know there are these interesting SPEAKER_83: solutions there's bit cloud there's jason what you said this open source project at twitter it's all it's all going to be really interesting but i think if we can get to a way where we can quantify SPEAKER_148: reputation and trust that's the another way of around working around the pulling up the ladder Chamath Palihapitiya: effect of of what facebook and twitter effectively told congress this week um i want to talk to you guys about what the hell what the hell is going on in the suez canal and what does this mean i mean uh freeberg what the is this this is unbelievable you know it's so random um and SPEAKER_48: unfortunate but this uh this ship that weighs 200 000 metric tons uh that's taller it's longer than the empire state building is tall going through the suez canal which i think you know there's about a hundred ships a day go through the suez canal um and it's you know the suez canal uh really is um you know kind of an amazing engineering accomplishment that uh connects the uh mediterranean sea to the red sea it basically allows ships from asia to not have to go all the way around africa to get to europe and uh the ship goes into the suez canal and it had a blackout its power went out and so it SPEAKER_202: just kept cruising without being able to control the steering because there's like freaking power steering on these massive ships you know like they don't have like a wire connected to the rudder SPEAKER_226: and so um you know no backup battery supply i guess no one knows but like the power went out SPEAKER_202: and the total blackout on the ship they couldn't get the power back on and the thing just keeps cruising and cruising and cruising and it cruises right into the side which is this big sand barrier on either side of the suez canal and it gets lodged in the sand barrier on the side now when you have 200 000 metric tons moving at a few miles an hour that's an incredible amount of momentum of energy and so it when it lodges in the side that's you know it's lodged in there and now it's acceleration yeah it's actually math time math times velocity but yeah you're close and so um the thing just uh basically got lodged in there and they can't get it out and now they think it's going to take another week or two before they'll be able to kind of dig all around the sand and tugboat the thing out of there um but i think what's interesting so 10 of global trade moves through the suez canal and about a hundred of these massive ships a day uh you know move through this canal but it really highlights the fragility of our global supply chain similar to kind of the experience i think we had during the SPEAKER_48: covet pandemic when all of a sudden things like toilet paper were less available to us um but you know a a small power outage on a boat on a ship you know uh in the middle of um uh of the suez canal can suddenly block up so much of global trade and cause you know massive fluctuations and commodity SPEAKER_202: prices and availability of supplies and products for businesses around the world there's going to be rippling economic effects for a period of time it's unclear how significant they're going to be but you know i really do think that um taking note of the fragility of our of our supply chain in this particular context is worth taking a step back and you know i i i spent a lot of my personal my work time uh obviously off the podcast thinking about kind of our systems of industry and you know the global industrial revolutions were really predicated on this notion of centralization you know we took um a lot of our production systems and we centralized them and created automated repeatable tasks and that reduced the cost and allowed us per unit of production uh to basically make things much more affordably but the problem with centralization generally speaking in supply chains is exactly this which is you you have a supply chain um that is much more delicate uh and um it is much more i mean think about the difference in power right if the power goes out at a power plant all the homes that are are connected to it lose power versus if every home had their own power generator or solar cells they could continue to support themselves and in a similar context so much and this goes back to our conversation earlier about globalization so much of our global supply chain for industry has become centralized by finding the lowest cost possible but it loses all of its durability and so the 21st century and especially leading into this infrastructure bill that we're going to be talking about or that's going to be talked about for a long time now for months to come presents an opportunity for us to think about durability in industry and durability and supply chains that i think is really profound and allows us to shift the balance of um of power but also shift the uh the the sources of production of all the things we consume as a species uh in a much more distributed way and that can be done using green technology using you know 3d printers using biomanufacturing you know using um solar there's a lot of vertical farming vertical yeah whatever um i'll disagree with you on that one and we'll talk about that separately but i would argue like so much of um of industry has been centralized because remember when the industrial revolutions took hold the only skill set we had as a species was mechanical engineering and in the years that followed we developed skills in chemical engineering and ultimately in software and hardware engineering and now more recently in biochemical engineering where we can use biological systems to make stuff and the advent of those technology capabilities i think really gives us the opportunity today to reinvent these supply chains um and so the suez canal i hope is a little bit of a wake-up call and i hope leads into some of the thinking around the infrastructure build proposals where we're about building durability in the supply chain and in that process by the way creating manufacturing jobs um you know in a more distributed way let me build on uh what you're SPEAKER_148: saying so for all the people listening that really really care about um electrification and electric Chamath Palihapitiya: cars and there's a bunch of tesla bulls here you know tesla uses a specific kind of battery called nca and uh there's you know other forms of batteries but for the most part in tesla in china uses this lfp chemistry but the point is uh there's a lot of very very valuable nickel that goes into making lithium ion SPEAKER_150: batteries and so if you believe in electrification and you believe in you know zero emissions and you believe in using these batteries you need to believe in nickel which is a tough business okay you're Chamath Palihapitiya: you're grabbing you know rock out of the ground and you're leaching this this extremely important uh metal out of it so just a a little while ago there is a huge nickel manufacturer uh called uh norlisk nickel right and they have these uh two russian nickel mines and just very recently they flooded and uh the plug which had been erected for localizing the flooding was washed away not for the first time not for the second time but for the third time and people now think that getting all this water out of the mine may take at least a year okay so what why should we care well right now if you think about all the batteries that were forecasted to make in order to sort of eliminate climate change and you know do all these good things and for you know tesla to to make their you know beautiful cars or SPEAKER_150: whomever that that you know um they need nickel and right now we have we have a deficit of nickel that's going to emerge now in less than a year and we have uh we have about a 37 to 40 percent shortage of Chamath Palihapitiya: what we need so it's like you have all these grandiose visions of how the world should work and uh an electric failure in a barge shuts down the global supply chain for weeks a lot in the flood in a nickel mine is going to cause the price of a tesla to basically double and shouldn't people at some point ask ourselves is this really what efficiency is supposed to feel like on the ground and it may not be right and so maybe again going back to the first conversation a little bit more inefficiency a little bit more inflation a little bit more redundancy will allow us to be resilient and maybe that's what we really want we don't well i mean you could ask the people in SPEAKER_39: texas what they want after they lost their power and they have one light snowstorm and the whole city is SPEAKER_245: destroyed i mean there really is uh there is something to having the redundancy in your home SPEAKER_139: and the supply chain and obviously drugs which we witnessed during the pandemic SPEAKER_174: right right i mean infrastructure we were so we were so concerned about um short-term profit SPEAKER_80: maximization that we offshored our entire pharmaceutical production and ppe manufacturing to china which then said that they might ration it to us based on you know geopolitical concerns no SPEAKER_329: thanks so yeah that that is that is that is penny wise and pound foolish the absolute definition is Chamath Palihapitiya: the is the infrastructure bill um gonna fix it freeberg you have a rundown of the infrastructure bill you SPEAKER_48: know there isn't a good there isn't good clarity on this my concern is um that there's going to be lots of uh push for things like roads and you know stuff that doesn't create ongoing jobs that so much money is going to go into basically a a disguised stimulus package versus um you know the ideal kind SPEAKER_202: of infrastructure program set uh is to enable industry so if you go back and you think about SPEAKER_48: like the manhattan project and the apollo mission you know those were very expensive government programs that have a very specific mandate but because there were big investments and difficult problems SPEAKER_202: they unlocked a lot of industry um that followed that initial development cycle and i think that that is kind of a good guideline for us to think about with respect to what we might hope for an infrastructure bill to do which is to create unlock for industry as opposed to plowing money into short-term service SPEAKER_48: contracts with a bunch of guys who are going to make a ton of money building roads and it doesn't really change the industry very much and so i'm concerned it's going to be a giveaway of money that's going to create a short-term stimulus but doesn't really create long-term effects in the industry but we'll see what kind of comes out as they get more clarity on this there's certainly a big push for quote unquote green but i'm not sure the people that are quote unquote green advisors in this in this context are going to be thinking about this you know this next century of opportunity you know Chamath Palihapitiya: yeah so so we'll see america's gonna have to have a real come to jesus if they actually really give a shit about climate change um yeah i'll give you an i'll give you a different example like um again to to really electrify you have to pull metals out of the ground that is a dirty business okay and there are impacts to the environment even if you're the best at it and right now in in the western hemisphere it takes 20 years to green light a mine 20 years our shortages start in the next year in china they have you know no issues whatsoever right let's just say so maybe it takes them seven to ten years to get a to get a project greenlit now i'm not advocating that we become china but uh i think that it's really important for us to realize that like you know uh if we're going to really take this seriously uh you can't have progress being hijacked by things that may not matter as much in the grand scheme of things SPEAKER_150: like there is the opportunity for example to build a massive set of copper and nickel mines in the western hemisphere but the minute that they get greenlit they get there's an injunction that's filed by an ngo that'll Chamath Palihapitiya: say oh you know we have to think about the land grouse and it's like well like what the is the land grouse uh and at some point you have to figure out whether you actually want your kids to have asthma or not and whether they can suck up you know pm 2.5 and pm 10 for the rest of their lives or you care more about the land grouse and uh this is going to come uh come to a head and hopefully the infrastructure bill paves the way for these decisions because i think as a country we're going to have to decide because many other countries in order to have clean air and drinkable water are going to basically SPEAKER_210: prioritize humans over the land grouse yeah i mean it reminds me of the nuclear discussion we had earlier in this podcast of like we can't even put a new nuclear power plant in this country without it Chamath Palihapitiya: taking decades and any uh any any interesting updates on the business side i saw uh is microsoft SPEAKER_276: really about to buy discord for 10 billion dollars yeah if you look at that compared to you know the slack SPEAKER_226: acquisition is slack got bought for 28 billion with was it 800 million in revenue yearly revenue at the time and discord has 150 million and they're going to pretend it's unbelievable it's it's an even higher SPEAKER_36: multiple how do you feel about your yammer sale for 1.2 billion at this point well it was it was in SPEAKER_80: hindsight it was probably cheap it made the market you know yeah yeah yeah well i mean back in 2012 we we really thought back in 2012 that 1 to 2 billion was like the best case scenario yeah the upper bound of what a sas exit would look like we just never realized how big the market could get and now obviously you have slack at close to 30 billion you have docu sign ipoing at 40 billion you have zoom at over 100 billion and so the markets just ended up so much bigger than we ever thought and we were the SPEAKER_145: optimist we were the ones building companies in sas back then and so the cloud has just been so i mean and you see this now with you know the numbers that azure and uh google cloud and aws keep reporting where they're at like tens of billions of revenue and they're still growing like 40 50 a year so the cloud is just so much bigger than what we all thought and what came before so that's what i mean so i've just decided to stop trying to find new ideas and just i mean a new fee like a new thesis and SPEAKER_157: just keep investing in this that's why i'm kind of all in on on sas right now do you think microsoft SPEAKER_285: is doing this to compete with slack or they're doing it to just really take over gaming you have SPEAKER_131: any insights sacks i think probably it's probably an element of both where uh they do like one of their SPEAKER_80: few consumer business lines that's done really well is xbox and gaming and they bought minecraft and so i think they can get some value out of it there but i i have to believe that this is competitively driven they got to be worried about slack i mean the crown jewel at microsoft is the office suite the reason they bought yammer is to accelerate the transition of office into cloud social and mobile and uh and it did help do that and they got to be worried about salesforce now buying slack i mean that is benioff has been wanting to go after office for a long time and SPEAKER_195: this is his way to do it yeah all right uh there you have it folks uh another all-in podcast is in the can let me just ask a question are people making summer plans and fall plans based on Chamath Palihapitiya: the i'm making i'm making i'm making tonight plans i can't wait to get you victims into the SPEAKER_382: into the poker room sax i want you to fly in please come and play we need three we need a full bestie SPEAKER_48: victim well sax what's your plan tonight like are you going to some fancy like pasta restaurant with SPEAKER_348: your wife what are you doing popping bottles with yeah yeah who are you hanging out with tonight SPEAKER_389: so what are you doing yeah what are you doing these days with the kids it was friday night SPEAKER_395: okay do you know their names put them to bed do you have put them to bed fly up north come to the SPEAKER_400: poker game tell us your kids middle names actually that's a good one that's a good one who knows i went SPEAKER_401: to the movies last night um i was i took uh my 11 year old out she went she was uh uh she wanted to get a shake shack so i took her to shake shack and the movie theater was there and it was open and i SPEAKER_39: was like oh let's go check it out of what's going on at the movie theater and terminator 2 was playing 15 minutes later great film incredible film holds up and amazing to see on the big screen we walk in i kid you not you know 100 seat theater with these beautiful big chairs nobody there and they SPEAKER_86: were so wait sorry did you rent the whole thing no it just happens to be that they're open for SPEAKER_246: business they space people out and you know it was five dollars a ticket to see i'm taking my uh i'm SPEAKER_48: taking my daughters to the movies this afternoon first time they've ever been to the movies they're uh you know three and a half and and two i am so excited to take them to a movie theater so we rented the whole theater for 99 it's the best deal in town what uh what movie are you seeing uh trolls you can choose a movie that's the cool thing there's like a list of like 50 films and you can pick a film so i got like a little kids film for them and they get to go see a movie theater and have SPEAKER_403: popcorn have the experience and awesome and you can have other friends there yeah you can have SPEAKER_48: up to 20 people so you rent the whole theater for 99 bucks and you you can kind of if you want to come see trolls come up just cruise up i'll send you a ticket oh my god that's the coolest SPEAKER_318: fucking thing that's all versus kong is happening and i'm renting a theater for it so if everybody wants to bring their kids um it's a great my kids would never sleep after seeing that it's no SPEAKER_86: no no it's not for three to five year olds but you know 10 year olds yes it's a hundred bucks this is an amc theater 99 bucks it's awesome for amc yeah but the the synopolis i think charges 200 SPEAKER_226: and that's the like really high-end theater where you can press a button and the waiter comes and SPEAKER_245: the waiter was like thanks for coming we really appreciate it like you're one of the first guests SPEAKER_00: no way there is no way yeah it was kind of like an emotional moment for me to take my daughter again because that's what we would do every friday yeah you know school there's no way movie theater is SPEAKER_202: go out of business i mean they're just it's such like like a traditional experience it's so american SPEAKER_409: it's just what amc's trading at hmm yeah i wonder if amc would be an interesting SPEAKER_410: sax is sitting this conversation out he's like i got my movie theater downstairs the usher is on standby ready to let me in how many seats are you it's like oh you can only rent a 20 seat theater SPEAKER_356: i have a 40 seat theater how many theaters are do you have built in your various homes SPEAKER_286: do you only have a theater per home sax is it one theater per home no he's got a multiplex in SPEAKER_420: each in case people want to watch different movies they meet at the popcorn stand i'm i'm excited to go back to the movies i i'm gonna really do that soon i love going to the movies i love how excited SPEAKER_348: are you guys to go to disneyland i i want to take my kids to disneyland i can't wait yeah i can't wait SPEAKER_51: sax and i will first cover it is over i'm so sick but by the way how right how right were we i think it was like two or three pods ago we were saying that cove would be over by memorial day Chamath Palihapitiya: memorial day and even in california gavin newsom basically has finally capitulated to logic and everybody can get a shot now as of april uh 15th yeah which means which means by may 15th everybody David Friedberg: who wants to get vaccinated all it took was a recall 2.2 million it took the recall and and shame and SPEAKER_53: shaming him and berating him on twitter constantly i mean peter fam was tweeting out like every day the SPEAKER_32: the growing uh inventories of vaccine and all the open appointments we all were and it's like SPEAKER_00: ridiculous we kept at mentioning him five million shots on shelves in in a pandemic i mean you don't SPEAKER_245: need to be freeberg to understand how vaccines work each person's a blocker right yeah and the other SPEAKER_32: thing the other thing that got newsom to move was that biden gave that press conference in which he moved up the date and so then that prompted newsom to move up his date and the same thing happened like a month ago when uh when biden gave that that speech where he uh said he gave that may 1st date as a date everyone should get vaccinated so frankly it'd be nice if we had a governor who would just do the right thing without the constant threat of recall and tweet shaming and you know and and and the SPEAKER_80: president dragging him you know into the future but um but i guess we do with all i'm curious what SPEAKER_195: you guys think of what we should do with all this extra supply i had an interesting idea for the economy if you come to america and you've tested that you don't have coveted right you take a test on the SPEAKER_245: before you get there if you come to america we will give you the vaccine at the airport jason i think SPEAKER_236: here's what we're gonna do from now on how great would that be you're gonna have you're gonna have SPEAKER_356: three little chips a week and you get to put a chip in a jar and then you can suggest one of your ideas but then once you hit three we're done okay i thought this was a good idea for the economy yeah SPEAKER_245: vaccine tourism like formalized vaccine tours if you come to america for vacation complementary vaccines on the way in i mean we're already at the point SPEAKER_32: look effectively affected no i think effectively we're going to have that it won't be at the airport but i mean the all the restrictions are coming off in every state by mid-april now SPEAKER_202: jason most people can't afford an international plane ticket you know they're not like gonna come Chamath Palihapitiya: to the us to to get a shot i uh i would like to advocate that we take these extra vaccines and we SPEAKER_446: ship them to the developing world yeah they should go south of the border for sure for sure yeah and SPEAKER_32: by the way we're doing a much better job vaccinating people than europe i mean it's unbelievable that covet is spiking in europe right now because they've been so incompetent at getting people vaccinated well their issue was they didn't want to put the order in shockingly incompetent shock SPEAKER_245: canadians and the europeans said we want you to prove to us the vaccine works before we put our Chamath Palihapitiya: order in i don't think that jason i think i think jason like i think that like sometimes i think over the last 40 years there's been two polar opposites of governing people one is what i would call the autocrat and the other is what i would call kindergarten soccer where when the ball no matter where the ball is on the on the soccer field every player on every team is surrounded yes and so as a result no progress is here progress is bursty and unpredictable and sometimes not great but it can happen and this is where like you know so like i mean we are i'm i'm still shocked at the lack of scientific rigor and understanding by these people and so how could you have an entire western set of countries who are theoretically not stupid be in this situation in april of 2021 knowing what we know SPEAKER_80: yeah well how's how's how's brexit how's brexit looking now because my god because britain is SPEAKER_32: like it's almost fully vaccinated their covet numbers are coming way down and then the british SPEAKER_53: variant the british variant it started in the uk is spreading like wildfire across europe because they're too bureaucratic to get everyone vaccinated so i mean britain is looking really good by comparison SPEAKER_455: right now and they opted out of kindergarten soccer yeah and by the way this is just to tie back to the SPEAKER_32: infrastructure for a second i don't have a problem with infrastructure if the investments can be spent wisely but how much of us trust the government to spend the money wisely as opposed to on pork barrel spending and wasteful projects and taking too long we have the bay bridge in san francisco the original bay bridge took two years to build and then the the repair of it took 17 years where they did like the SPEAKER_456: the upgraded version and that's the problem we have is that nobody really trusts our government anymore to SPEAKER_226: allocate this money wisely uh just to give people an idea doses administered per 100 people 39 well now 40 for SPEAKER_195: the u.s and uh israel 114 obviously there's two dough shots uh and uh spain 14 italy 14 canada 12 Chamath Palihapitiya: mexico 4. my mom who's uh almost 80 just got her first shot which i think is inexcusable justin trudeau if you're listening disaster i just i just think that's unacceptable unacceptable she's 79 years old SPEAKER_145: it's unacceptable god i mean it literally these politicians these politicians and bureaucrats designed this complicated system to prove that they're helping people it's just like news trying to score equity points in california it's just all they do is get in the way equity that's Chamath Palihapitiya: the red the red light should go off and you should run far away from whatever comes after we're going SPEAKER_195: to solve an equity problem we see let's go for efficiency let's let's go yeah all right everybody we'll see you all next time on the all in podcast love you guys love you best see you tonight see SPEAKER_476: you tonight boys tonight except for you i got you i got you chipping at jerry chipping at jerry bring us some of that bring us some of that sax crafty poo money come on yeah buy it come on well SPEAKER_478: we won't play plo we'll keep it to hold them yeah we know we know if you fly up if you fly up for the SPEAKER_356: evening you're going to be just fully committed you know you're going to be playing right yeah you're SPEAKER_53: right i'll i'll come in tilted because i'll be negative jet fuel yes just go for a coin toss SPEAKER_342: how about if we cover it we'll just do a flip and we'll cover it we'll cover your jet fuels boy SPEAKER_48: that's not a no i didn't hear somebody's low someone said text and tell her to kick him out of the house SPEAKER_498: tonight rain man david sacks open source it to the fans