SPEAKER_00: hey everybody happy wednesday big show today first we're going to react to the reactions to adam newman's funding news lots of reactions meta reactions it's just infinity content i'm

SPEAKER_01: sorry adam newman is infinity content then though we're gonna have a little startup talk like a little like real or not real we're talking about boom supersonics deal with american airlines to

SPEAKER_07: sell a bunch of really fast airplanes and then we're going to talk about goodfellows a an amazing heartwarming new startup that's been funded in india i'll give you the backstory there

SPEAKER_04: very sweet and then of course we're going to wrap with jason and his uh next edition of the blueprint it's going to be a great show it's going to be a great show stick with us

SPEAKER_11: this week in startups is brought to you by work os is a developer platform to make your app enterprise ready with a few simple apis you can immediately add common enterprise features like single sign-on multi-factor authentication and more go to work os.com to learn how to make your app enterprise ready visa are you a small business owner did you know that visa's online small business hub has tools discounts and resources to help you run your business learn more at visa.com slash small business hub and brave is an internet privacy company on a mission to protect your personal info online download brave today at brave.com twist to browse faster search privately and so much

SPEAKER_15: more all in a single click hey everybody it's wednesday you made it we're at the top of the

SPEAKER_16: mountain you're listening to this it's all downhill right molly it is it's gonna be great it's almost the

SPEAKER_01: weekend it's summer here in the bay area i know some of you are starting to have your pumpkin spice lattes and your big sweaters we are in full summer attire in the bay area because summer starts august 15th

SPEAKER_22: well with global warming uh you know it's like we all get to live in mexico city anybody it's actually it's very temperate incredible i i feel like la is turning into mexico uh in terms of temperature and climate yeah yeah san francisco is turning into la like we're having these like heat waves that felt like when i lived in you know santa monica brentwood yeah uh and i think that means mexico turns into the third circle of hell or something like burgundy like how hot is it going to get did

SPEAKER_26: you see the austin temperatures no like you know us texas and mexico is the same thing right this is like the same it's pretty hot in austin best case over a hundred degrees if you were to look at the monthly chart of austin a lot of my friends who moved to austin were like how come nobody told me

SPEAKER_28: about this i was like they warned you like 20 times you did not listen that's what i'm talking about

SPEAKER_32: august in austin or it just august in austin is 100 degrees every day it's horrific all right let's do it we got a good show today these topics have been so rich and you and i have too much fun way

SPEAKER_38: too much fun way too much fun so monday love this job monday we talked about work from home for an hour tuesday that was yeah that was just yesterday monday was that yesterday and monday was the full-on

SPEAKER_01: adam newman news yesterday i mean batted around work from home for an hour it's literally this is

SPEAKER_45: too much guys it's work it's work and then the funnier this gets like the more people show up for the live stream which has been great youtube.com slash this weekend like we're just getting 300

SPEAKER_28: people live every day it's pretty hilarious and we some of the jokes are only for the live audience so this if you're hearing this you're hearing the podcast but there's another half hour of shenanigans that you don't hear on the show that only for the notice in the live audience youtube.com such as this weekend okay but we have to start we have such a full docket of news we really do it just

SPEAKER_45: keeps overflowing into the next day but we have to do a roundup of the reactions to the reactions

SPEAKER_16: to a16 giving adam newman 350 million dollars before he launches his company i mean we're all familiar

SPEAKER_01: with the thing that happens on twitter where there's an event and then a backlash to the event and then a backlash all the way back around the arubaros cycle where pretty soon the worm is just eating its own tail and that is sort of what happened like the the the somewhat obvious we had a lot of fun with this obviously i think we also mentioned the fact that like yes of course it is patently unfair that this guy who committed all this chicanery then just lands a 350 million dollar check when like all kinds of founders are out here struggling to even get a meeting yeah so that that was sort of the expected and immediate response right like as exemplified by

SPEAKER_57: this new york post story which was you know investors aggregated so this is something that happens to

SPEAKER_16: like bill simmons and some other folks like you you talk about something on your pod and then people

SPEAKER_45: re-aggregate it so they actually the journalist reached out to me because i guess he had heard my rule you know jason's rule if a company becomes worth a billion dollars before it launches products it's probably a fraud um i don't think that actually applies here because it were probably is in jason's

SPEAKER_00: rule but i basically i was like oh my god you know the new york post i haven't been in the new york post in a long time so i was like what's the best quote i could give to the post and let me try

SPEAKER_59: to give them two or three of those uh because i know as a former journalist i know quote bait

SPEAKER_00: yeah you've heard of link bait yeah there's a level below which is quote bait and you know it's

SPEAKER_33: like aka sound bites but read a couple of my quotes in here because i was just baiting this journalist i was like i'm just gonna give this journalist like um the alley-oo pass for the clear

SPEAKER_01: dunk yeah and and and they took it not surprisingly after the story was published online calycanis responded to an email from the post and said that he had faith in newman quote if adam opened a hot dog stand in staten island i would invest calycanis said i actually think he has an 80 chance of

SPEAKER_40: making this work since this is his revenge startup okay now let's break down my quote i mean it is how

SPEAKER_45: you make quote bait number one there's got to be collateral damage so staten island's a collateral damage right yeah so it's like who what's great collateral damage for people who have to read the new york post well there's people on the stand line ferry there's people coming from brooklyn queens whatever you know they're going into work they pick up the post like i used to and uh you know you're just zipping through it so i had to take like a little collateral damage for satin island and then like you know hot dog stand is classic new york right hot dog stand in staten island is

SPEAKER_72: like the worst business i could think of it to have like can you imagine you get that job that's the

SPEAKER_74: worst job you can have is a hot dog stand it's social it's social it kind of it's not a dick to

SPEAKER_28: anybody but it's not the best business in the world anyway but then i gave them a term

SPEAKER_00: a term of art like terms of art that's just another one when you can make up a term of art

SPEAKER_33: like revenge startup you know like kind of that's how memes work with words

SPEAKER_32: so if you can brand branding works that way bless you that was the most mansplaining particular sentence ever that's how well i was doing it for the audience but yes like you know how words work when you put them together if you put some words together to make a new turn yes but you had one

SPEAKER_65: yesterday like the quiet quitting yeah was it quiet i wish i made that up but i did not make

SPEAKER_79: so there's me and molly there's me and molly you see i'm working out and you see molly has grown

SPEAKER_38: that's actually that's actually true i'm five nine i'm like five eight and a half but i say five nine sometimes i round up i'm like five eleven and a half and i say six feet and you're like six foot so

SPEAKER_84: this is me talking to molly how about how words work how words work anyway for people who are not

SPEAKER_85: watching the video it's just a picture of a meme of a jacked guy who's bald and three feet shorter than a woman who looks like heather graham in a crop top with her hair blown out oh god so molly got

SPEAKER_61: extensions how words work we should can somebody just take that picture right now this week at startups

SPEAKER_84: so we'll make it we'll make the album art we should totally make it the album art for your one year

SPEAKER_37: anniversary i mean i think we pretty much have to anyway so that was my joke about it and there's

SPEAKER_42: the new york post uh but yes revenge startup is super evocative and everyone is going to start using

SPEAKER_45: it no doubt about it that's how you know that about it you know and then having a rule uh heuristic

SPEAKER_33: is also bait so people with heuristics rules yada yada see molly a heuristic mm-hmm is h-e-u-r-i

SPEAKER_00: be like molly's vocabulary we have to do a vocabulary test i guarantee you molly's vocabulary is 30 percent higher than mine easily easily um all right however as you may have heard on yesterday's

SPEAKER_68: show i i cannot do basic factors of 10 math so i do get you on the back of the evidence out let's

SPEAKER_01: go through some of the other right yeah so there were lots of reactions to the reactions of course and so then you start to see so the the headline of that post story was investors slam uh we work founders quote disgusting come back and then you start to see not surprisingly the boomerang and people start to defend the newman deal including somewhat surprisingly sarah lacy who was you know a long time a big name tech journalist back when you and i were doing this um but is now doing other things

SPEAKER_40: but said i don't really get the confusion i think she's got a mom startup like she's got a mom startup

SPEAKER_01: women's group mom startup yep exactly she did pando daily and then now she's on this chairman me which is like a mom startup thing a friend of mine actually went to one of her retreats and

SPEAKER_106: i really enjoyed it i heard it's great yeah i mean people need those maps for mine kind of things yeah

SPEAKER_01: yeah it's great um anyway but she wrote back and said i don't get the confusion or she wrote back she tweeted a long thread saying i don't get the confusion over the mark andreese and adam newman deal she said this is totally in keeping with how mark has always invested and how silicon valley does housing she writes is a huge problem newman has a track record of raising gargantuan funds and going after huge real estate issues mark likes funding huge bold ideas and she also points out there are scores of people who blew up and later built or delivered the biggest scores in valley history and the investors who won are the ones who gave them a second chance like say sean parker of course totally left for dead by all of silicon valley except for peter teal who he delivered facebook to and then she says mark himself was someone who the world tried to write off after netscape make a poster child for the dot-com excesses this is all making sense yeah and then there's this kind of outlier tweet here about how as for the mark doesn't want high density housing in his hood he isn't particularly social and he's also on the board of the world's largest social media company i don't see how that's super relevant okay yeah that's a hot take that's not to agree with it

SPEAKER_45: it's a hot take you don't have to agree with it but she's right i mean we try to make this point over and over again to people you know and i think the way i said it yesterday was if you're credibly audacious past shenanigans are easily looked over i'm i'm working on like a jason's second rule of of startups or founders here you have that first one and then this is a second one that's like a corollary which is if you're credibly audacious you've taken a company public the company changed

David Friedberg: the world company defined a category whatever it is or even if you fail but it was it was like audacious

SPEAKER_40: became a noun like the rule you know yeah but the best thing really is like i don't really do tech

SPEAKER_45: but if it's a noun i'm into it or a verb sure yeah i take it you take an uber or yeah you don't we work something but you get a we work right so you would if you said shorthand it's like kleenex

SPEAKER_32: you know we work means an office share so even if you've got it at another place it would still be a

SPEAKER_01: we work right so if it either becomes a verb or a noun shorthand yes you know that's taking uber deal you door dashed it you googled it she also sarah lacy also point out as for the check size do you know how much they have under management see quibi it can totally blow up and not dent the fund she said i've been in the valley since 99 i'm so sick of the group thinking covering it we can be morally outraged all the time whether the market is up or down we can also look at business fundamentals we can be intellectually honest about what we are critiquing and consistent whoa whoa yeah that is

SPEAKER_126: uh and then she was like interesting comments coming from sarah who has been quite uh yeah um yeah

SPEAKER_129: i don't want to say it but okay anyway i would love to read these tweets but she still got me blocked

SPEAKER_130: over uber so if you're building an enterprise app you need to offer sso what is sso that single sign on it is what it says it is basically the ability for enterprise users to log into your app with their existing credentials so if you work at a company a big company you know that they have an identity provider and you say to yourself well i can build that myself i can write all that code and put it into my app that's fine but that's hard and you're going to be duplicating a bunch of work just like you might want to do payments but you don't want to duplicate all that work and then you have to maintain all those integrations in your app with every single identity provider your customers might use and new ones are coming out the specs change and then your login breaks you don't know it's broken yada yada yada it is a ton of technical overhead well this is why you need to check out work os it's basically stripe for all those important enterprise features you know how people wanted to put payments into their products and it was arduous and painful and then stripe came out and you just drop a little code snippet in and you're done that's what work os does simple api plugins that let you move faster spend less time on developers and you don't have to worry about maintaining all those integrations

SPEAKER_45: they don't just have sso's they also have apis for multi-factor authentication and much more work os.com is going to teach you how to do it it's app enterprise ready and if you want to learn more about their different integrations just go to their podcast it's the work os podcast work os.com slash podcast or just search for work os podcast in your podcast player welcome to the this week

SPEAKER_136: in startups family work os but it was really interesting and it was sort of interesting as the day went on and the couple of days to see the 48 hours the 48 hours exactly um and then really

SPEAKER_01: i think one of the best tweets of all time possibly talia goldberg tweeted this is good really want to meet adam newman and see if he can hypnotize me or if i'm too powerful

SPEAKER_37: if i'm powerful enough to resist tell you that's 10 of 10. none of us are 10 of 10 i would steal it

SPEAKER_40: it's outstanding and also no one can he's like emperor palpatine shout out talia give me another follow right now never call me adam newman i will write a check i can't be trusted i thought for the

SPEAKER_45: ladies out there i would do a little meme tweet a little joke so here's my meme tweet uh because a lot of women i mean people were the the counter sarah lacy's counter is to people who are like oh my god this is unfair it says something about gender it says something about whatever well they're yeah

SPEAKER_68: again we pointed this out there are all these underrepresented founders particularly women who can't even get a meeting and this guy can get you know a billion dollars in total just yeah by hypnotizing people yeah um yeah so anyway we did you on this one actually yeah go for it

SPEAKER_151: so i was just like you know what this reminds me of like can you imagine you're a female founder who

SPEAKER_85: had a meeting at a16z this week with a male partner like how does that meeting start yeah and you know

SPEAKER_141: if a woman did say like oh yeah congrats on the we work uh i'm sorry the flow investment uh they'd be like adam created an entire category of residential is ready to be disrupted and you can see here this is the meme of the woman who looks like heather graham being yelled

SPEAKER_57: at by a short king with the arms the size of his own chest who's yeah with a guy whose arm is

SPEAKER_16: literally bigger than his skull i didn't know that was physically and anatomically possible

SPEAKER_85: uh with a serious with a serious devops beard that's the devops beard and look there it is

SPEAKER_84: let's make it start i was jason calacanis and mollywood oh it's gonna stick it's me mansplaining

SPEAKER_154: to molly oh if you guys can't see it we just made a version of this as our as our new podcast

SPEAKER_72: we need to make one of these with us khaleesi having fun today we have to make one of these

SPEAKER_37: of us khaleesi and then me as another game of thrones character oh my god seriously this is i mean this meme

SPEAKER_141: i'm just going to the audience right now if you can make a better meme than this i'm sending you a hundred dollars worth of liquid iv yeah this meme is classic because just have added folks uh can

SPEAKER_45: you just put out that this week in startups overlay nick for people as a reply tweet to this and you

SPEAKER_21: feel free to tweet this but anyway that was my this is unbelievable this that was good i retweeted that one today that was very funny thank you thank you in seriousness of this how should what is the

SPEAKER_45: proper contextualization framing that you put on this as a female capital allocator yeah looking at this is it actually an issue of gender does it speak to some larger issue or as sarah saying hey let's be intellectually honest you know people who are mavericks get funding it's both it's but it's always

SPEAKER_01: both and it's always going to be both because there's not like there's not like some things that are sexist and some things that are not right you like you sort of like think of these things as a condition we uh we're a sexist society with discrimination built in full stop right like from the beginning yeah so there is always going to be some aspect of that adam newman got funded the first time right for being having a huge vision and being like a tall handsome guy with great hair hair like a

SPEAKER_140: prince will get you you know he was super amazing sales person right he's a super amazing he is he's

SPEAKER_177: the emperor palpatine of selling like you cannot resist the guy he's literally got that jedi mind

SPEAKER_45: trick down but also and um exactly his aunt is all and it's always end to your point and he what people forget is so yes he's being given like a huge swath of cash here before the products even launched that is like notable so you have to work backwards okay let's talk about his first company oh masa gave him it's a red thing it's a red one masa gave him a huge amount of money and that was like whoa how do we process this right but then you have to go backwards green desk the guy had a vision for shared office space he had a failed startup set when i failed he had a middling project green desk that he barely owned because he had a partner on it he he wound up selling it to them as you saw and then creating we work so he was a bootstrapping founder he was the bootstrappers bootstrapper yeah so for people to look at him now and say oh my god it's a privilege issue sure there's privilege nobody's going to say there's not privilege it's not unfair you know bias in the world right this is not that

SPEAKER_00: i don't think this is his a privilege issue right here he is somebody who started as a bootstrapper built a credible company it went off the rails with masa yoshis on giving up absurd amounts of money which said more about masa than adam that was masa you know adam newman was just like fireball and he just walked into like a gas refinery masa right like that is very random very true and you

SPEAKER_01: guys did a great job talking about that on all in about softbank finding itself in this position where it just had to not only deploy capital quickly but a ton an absurd amount of two billion a month and so you hand a toddler a week right like you hand a toddler like a machete and a fire the flamethrower yeah and like stuff gets destroyed and burned down yes right yes but then the question

SPEAKER_177: is is mark masa now did he just hand the same time right this is the thing we don't know is did he just

SPEAKER_01: hand the same toddler yeah the same dangerous tools and we have no idea like i more than one time have referenced that deal book interview that adam newman did with andrew ross orkin after we crashed came out where he sold us all like yeah we all watched that interview and we're like i unironically would give him money again there's no doubt about it and there's no no and i want to be super clear

SPEAKER_42: there is no indication whatsoever in that interview that he learned any lessons at all no it wasn't like

SPEAKER_01: a super remorseful thing no no i still was like that guy is as charming as a literal cobra snake charmer

SPEAKER_16: yeah absolutely yeah if he like literally came and said i'm i've got an idea for mobile hot dog delivery it's a stand you push it and you can order a hot dog over an app and they'll put sauerkraut on it

SPEAKER_111: you know they'll put onions on it mustard whatever you want and we're only delivering on island boulevard

SPEAKER_45: we're all in and our second location is going to be on the staten island ferry so it's incredible

SPEAKER_68: brand extensions all the other issues that there are those issues are true they exist like women

SPEAKER_01: don't get funded enough and people of color and old people and all kinds of underrepresented founders and also this guy's a gd ninja exactly i think that's all the reactions we got right yeah yeah

SPEAKER_45: pretty good there yeah it's pretty good reaction so oh but oh you're not gonna believe this molly this

SPEAKER_16: is one of it's the power of the podcast people are uh sending me leaks from inside of flow you're not gonna believe this but there's a brand extension coming and they built a landing page for it and somebody just tipped me off i got a slip so i said to my dms um check this out apparently flowtequila.com is up and you can sign up for updates so wow go ahead and sign up sign me up there jason at california.com let's make sure i let's make sure i'm okay well i'm gonna get emails about flow

SPEAKER_202: tequila.com i can't wait for this to launch oh my goodness a tequila club like i've always been waiting

SPEAKER_130: for well who knows i mean i mean it's a flow brand extension but interesting you know he liked to

SPEAKER_26: throw those camping parties community around and the raves and everything like that this is a different

SPEAKER_45: person leaking from inside newman's this is two separate dms i mean i suppose these could be two same person two different burner accounts but look at this one's coming there's another flow brand extension coming i can't believe it and this one to me makes a lot of sense because you've got young people that have apartments this makes a lot of sense to me maybe more so than flow tequila.com uh but flow rave.com is up and running and i totally want to go to a flow rave with

SPEAKER_202: adam newman this is how good this guy is he can bring raves back

SPEAKER_209: he's gonna bring uh single-handedly but you know that a lot of people have asked him did we pay for

SPEAKER_45: all these don't ruin the bet a lot of people have asked like what happens you know to people you know are they going to outgrow being part of the flow brand and uh the same leaker told me like not only flow rave and flow tequila you know great brand extensions right on right yeah adam newman's brand on brand yeah this one's coming because he wants to do the full life cycle of a uh this is the full life cycle of his customer base you're going to be able to go to flowgrave.com you'll be able to

SPEAKER_00: from tequila to grave tequila from rave to from rave to grave the flow life experience from rave to grave is their tagline that's they said that's what they're working on as a tagline for flow from rave

SPEAKER_136: to great like they're just really we're we're helping to float that trial balloon i think

SPEAKER_18: brave to grave tell us what you think producers at thisweekendstartups.com we'd love to know what

SPEAKER_202: you think about maybe some interesting brand extensions tagline soon rave to grave we're beating

SPEAKER_224: this horse and we'll continue to do so we will you can be certain this is going to be chef's kiss

SPEAKER_227: for the year this is christmas in august are you a small business owner did you know that visa's online small business hub has tools discounts and resources to help you run your business so whether you're a business beginner or an entrepreneurial expert find the solutions tools and tips you need to help take your business to the next level plus if you have a visa business credit card or debit card you can get access to cardholder benefits like visa savings edge a savings program which can help you save on everyday business expenses like office essentials travel and more when you enroll your visa business card in visa savings edge you'll have access to valuable offers which can help turn qualifying business purchases made with your enroll visa business card into savings for your business learn more at visa.com small business hub once again that's visa.com small business hub

SPEAKER_42: visa a network working for everyone speaking of supersonic success heyo uh american airlines you'll

SPEAKER_01: understand this pun in a minute and i apologize in advance american airlines is going to buy up to 20 commercial supersonic jets from aircraft maker and basically startup boom supersonic yeah they've been

SPEAKER_16: on the podcast they were on episode uh 638 a mere 900 episodes ago what a pace we're going at

SPEAKER_140: back in 2016 but you know i hear their business is booming hey oh hey ho never gets old never never people to

SPEAKER_22: create a create a an airplane company a company that builds planes and call it boom is audacious continue

SPEAKER_225: just as an aside you make an excellent if terrifying point that is true tragedy airlines was taken tragedyairlines.com was already taken

SPEAKER_01: shrieking dissent too long too long via reuters this brings boom's total order book to 130 jets valued at 26 billion dollars american is actually the second us airline to agree to purchase these jets and remember supersonic jets are the ones that can fly at two times the speed of today's fastest commercial aircraft so they're not quite concord level speed um but they're incredibly fast over they can allegedly fly from miami to london in under five hours cutting the standard nine hour flight time

SPEAKER_04: in half which would be amazing overture is the name of the jet and um yeah i'm going to go ahead

David Friedberg: and say name the company overture drop the boom yeah drop that sonic boom i get it i mean i but when

SPEAKER_22: not to explain the science sumers hear boom you don't want to hear when one of these things blow up the new

SPEAKER_45: york post is going to be like boom right goes boom like planes blow up tragically one of these will

SPEAKER_01: blow up and then it's going to be meme central whoopsie airlines yeah boom goes boom is bad that's that's going to happen that's really going to happen so the overture let's just continue to refer to it as the overture that's a great idea has four engines can carry 65 to 80 passengers is designed to run on a more sustainable aviation fuel blend and it looks cool as hell but what is interesting about

SPEAKER_40: this too is you know i mean i have been annoying you about various electric plane companies here and

SPEAKER_01: there because it's like it's so cool and you really want to happen but kudos to the makers of overture

David Friedberg: for creating an airplane startup yeah really hard yeah any hardware is hard and this is like as hard as hard where it gets i mean right i would think so it's also be harder rockets yeah pretty difficult

SPEAKER_01: evidently boom said the overture is designed to be 75 less expensive than the concord for airlines to operate so the the cost of the ticket doesn't have to be so high so a concord ticket apparently

SPEAKER_04: was 30 times more expensive than an average ticket it was 5 000 each way in the 80s and 90s right to

SPEAKER_45: go from new york to london of course the issue was you could not fly these over land and uh two of them i think blew up uh was the problem with the concord one of them was because the wheels or something uh lit on fires but i think there were two major accidents somebody will correct me on that and you can't go over land because of that sonic boom right and so overture said they're gonna try to make it less boomy so i guess the concept was you could fly it over if let's say you were flying from austin you could i guess fly non-supersonic speed and then when you get over the water you could turn it up i

SPEAKER_01: guess so right i mean they don't go as fast as the concord either way so maybe it's just not as much of a sound so the timeline is still i mean hardware is hard we should say that these jets have been ordered but the timeline is uh no joke 2025 is when they're expected to come off the production line 2026 is when they're expected to start test flights and will not uh they're projecting they'll carry their first passengers not until 2029 and then evidently the deal has some conditions so american airlines agreed to buy these planes but i think are not would not have to buy them if they don't deliver in time yeah and

SPEAKER_16: uh all of these uh letters of intent lois purchase orders you know like if this company was going

SPEAKER_45: public you remember the nicolo controversies uh the one that was making the vans for amazon that amazon owned 10 of like all of these letters have out clauses in them some of them are non-binding the payment terms so if you were looking at companies you really if you're making a j trade on a public company or doing a private investment you just want to know but it's a it's a i say letters of intent are you know totally i don't even count them as any revenue yeah they're usually just press releases to be honest and so i think that's what this is i'm not meaning to be cynical but i don't really give this any credence because you can back out of it and it's just an option now if they paid in full or it was an amount of money that was significant to the individual then you can look at it differently i'll give you two examples uh with the roadster you had to pay up front 150 000 and then wait three years for that tesla roadster dang for the model s you had to pay in full 120 000 and wait two years or three years whatever it was and i have both of those i have the signature 16 and the signature number one uh but then when they did the model three i think it was a thousand dollars i think so i think it was a thousand i think for the cyber truck was 500. so you know the full you okay that's non-refundable you get the cash in the bank if the company goes out you lose your money so if that if that was the case here great then you look at you know a thousand dollars on a 50 000 is two percent so if these planes are going to cost 200 million each or whatever they 100 million they're probably gonna cost 100 200 million maybe 200 million i'm guessing private jets like top out of 50 60 and then the you know commercial jets are in that 200 range makes sense right you think about a 20 year lifespan of them yada yada and what they can do in general regenerate revenue if they received but two percent the same as the model three i would be super impressed by this right because two percent would be four million per jet four million per jet 100 jets ordered 400 million in revenue they may have collected that i don't know maybe to get your reservation and be in line you have to put down two percent three percent so there would be skin in the game and it would be non-refundable

SPEAKER_01: so that's what the devils would be at the detail uh that's a good way to evaluate those types of

SPEAKER_40: yeah deals when they come in the door too yeah well when we look at li nick someone is a great that is

SPEAKER_126: a great vc sunday school topic yeah um how to account for letters of intent pre-orders on kickstarters

SPEAKER_268: uh that's big in the climate space yes because there's a lot of like big infrastructure hardware

SPEAKER_68: pitches right like it's a there's a like a desalination machine or uh an electric jet or uh power microgrid station for ev chargers right there's this that there's a million different

SPEAKER_272: things and it's all like yeah we have an loi for bergillions of dollars that the lois are always for bergillions it's a letter of nothing it's a technical term i refer to them as letters of

David Friedberg: bergillions orders are orders letters of nothing are letters of nothing so i like orders with cash

SPEAKER_45: uh deposits that makes sense you know i think when you look at it pre-orders are incredible incredible validation because it means you have a customer who wants the product so badly they're willing to give up their cash knowing there's a chance they won't get it back and they want to see you succeed which is the entirety of kickstarter indiegogo why i love meeting founders who have raised on those platforms there are problems with those platforms we'll talk about it when we do a vc sunday school on this but just back of the envelope math you know they said concord tickets were like 30 times more which makes sense uh you know they were five thousand dollars so ten thousand for a round trip and back then you know flights were two three hundred bucks right um i think in the 90s i think we'd pay 300 bucks for a flight you know 500 bucks for a flight so you know it's 20 times 500 is 10 000 or so and i think 5 000 was like the minimum a concord flight would be so that that kind of is directionally correct today interestingly ticket prices actually haven't gone up all that much with the exception of the bump in fuel costs recently because of the war in ukraine uh so today 2019 flights were in domestic us were 359 probably international is probably 50 more than that say 500 and that's round trip so 500 times 30 is 15 000. so i would say my guess is that overture tickets are going to be if they said it's going to be 75 less 75 less than five 15k or 20k i might put it at 20k 75 less with 5 000. i can't see these being less than 5 000 round trip i would doubt that i it's got to be i i don't believe them i don't believe their numbers i think they're wrong or they're just being delusional i can't see these

SPEAKER_21: tickets going for less than 15 000 round trip really yeah because i mean just look if you want because

SPEAKER_145: these are all going to be business class tickets by the way there's no coach there's no such thing as coach on these it's only one class and the class will be business and so i would say right now business class to london new york or miami is going to be 10 to 20 grand business first class round

SPEAKER_10: trip i don't think they're going to undercut it i don't buy it and i'm not sure about this jet fuel

SPEAKER_283: stuff being green all right everybody listen i love brave i've been using brave for the last couple

SPEAKER_227: of months and it is so much faster than any browser i've ever used and it doesn't have all of those ads and trackers and creepy stuff happening on my computer they really have three core products built into brave the core browser which is tight and it has all these great extensions that just work they have the search engine and they have a browser native crypto wallet brave's browser has over 60 million users already and thousands of daily downloads plus all this is built on chromium which is the open source chrome project so you're going to feel pretty familiar with it all your extensions from chrome are going to work but here's the best part they're going to work like two or three times faster than in chrome because they're not going to bog you down with all those ads and i tell you something the chrome extensions are some of the worst offenders in terms of adding a bunch of trackers you can import your bookmarks your passwords and settings from chrome or any other browsers in just one click so you're going to be off to the races day one and it doesn't track your website visits your searches or your clicks producer nick uses it and he loves it rachel uses it we all love having a browser that's fast it's truly private and independent their search engine is independent so download brave today brave.com twist to browse faster search privately and so much more all in a

SPEAKER_00: single click i guarantee you you are going to love it brave.com twist when they say jet fuel stuff is green i think it's a lot of questions about sustainability i think it's like 10 percent

SPEAKER_258: sustainable that's a word that's doing a lot of work in that sentence yeah a lot of work should we be

SPEAKER_226: producing these molly is this what the world needs is this ethical or moral to produce these

SPEAKER_05: technologies i you're going to burn more fuel this thing's going to burn much more fuel per person would imagine it's going to burn much more fuel yeah and it needs to go twice as fast yeah like

SPEAKER_118: how much like a bugatti bayron gets like a half a mile to the gallon going 200 miles an hour it's the

SPEAKER_00: i think it's like every 10 or 20 miles per hour above like 65 you go is some significant percentage more

SPEAKER_45: yeah right because you have to rev the engine that much hotter and it takes much more energy so

SPEAKER_07: i have a feeling this is unconscionable on a fuel spent per person basis probably and i think by 2029

SPEAKER_01: you are actually going to see enough flight shaming like i think that there's not even necessarily shaming but incentives like i think there's going to be significantly less flying because it is it you know now we just bop around places without really thinking about it and most of those many many many of those trips are not necessary like there's no reason i need to fly across the country you know go to a bunch of cabs to go to a dinner and come back yeah exactly from a i mean i did it for the next games right yeah no i mean anybody like anybody practicing business or something at a high level or fun at a high level which you practice has done try some version of this and increasingly i think that's going to be start to be considered you know socially unacceptable

SPEAKER_45: it already has flight shaming in europe is a thing um and especially when you have a train system so when i'm in europe i do like to take the trains only because i i enjoy it i find it pleasurable so i just love going from like pancreas station to gardnerd a guard nord uh you know the channel thing from london to paris i just find that more fun i'd rather do that for three or four hours you know

SPEAKER_141: talk have a coffee and you know what i do is i go right to the dining car i spend the whole time in

SPEAKER_266: the dining car i'm that guy trains i go right to the dining car i park i'm keeping that table for

SPEAKER_01: the whole ride yeah not giving it up but yeah i mean the only reason you think you need to get from you know miami to london in five hours instead of nine is because you think you have like a really important business meeting there by 2029 that's not going to be acceptable and you're going to have vr meetings like i'd say but you are and or zoom and it's just not or you'll have high-speed trains

SPEAKER_22: going to be more tunnels and you'll have self-driving so you put all that together there's no reason for

SPEAKER_45: planes to fly in the northeast corridor of the united states you can take excella you can take all these trains there is no reason for people to be flying from new york to dc to boston that whole corridor if they just made the trains 50 miles per hour faster which is easily doable you could just throw away all the planes in that area can you imagine how many planes come out of the air if you did that yeah and then now you do europe yeah like does there need to be any flights between london germany you know france like what i'm not sure which countries on the continent no not really on the continent and also that you think about the there's mountains but you know if you can get better tunneling technology there's really no reason for it um especially with high-speed trains if you can get these trains all to 150 miles per hour 250 miles per hour you'd see what happens in china and

Chamath Palihapitiya: you see what happens in japan yeah you know like just take the train like why would you do anything else it doesn't make any they just have to make the trains more dope like the train has to be more

SPEAKER_45: fun yes and just even more easy just keep making the trains easier subway level easy none of that like

SPEAKER_258: buy a ticket and do the blah blah blah do the whole thing like you get a smartphone you get on they

SPEAKER_45: should just you get on i love the conductor system i love the pass system you know just swipe i i told

SPEAKER_145: you i ordered those bobas i'm really loving the apple watch lifestyle of paying for things and just quickly going through like clear you know does at airports those things i think mean more to people then they're being under it's being underestimated how much those little accoutrements mean to people if you upgraded the food on these trains upgraded the seating and upgrade the wi-fi train consumption would go way up yeah just make it high speed put those uh you know low earth orbit satellites star links on each train yeah this is why i think we should substitute for sure subsidized trains yes high speed trains and subsidize um e-bikes are my two pet peeves uh but yeah i would like to know what booms and i'm not like on the company or anything uh hope people don't take it that way i do think there's

SPEAKER_45: a case for having this i just don't think this should be the default so that's why i was sort of

SPEAKER_10: teeing it up to you do you think it's moral ethical i like your answer i think a lot of people are going

SPEAKER_145: to opt out when they find out how much fuel this burns and then for other people if you're a dignitary if you're a ceo if you're somebody who time is money you know if it's the president of the united states if it's a senator a congress person a ceo and like they just have a big schedule or you know they play for a basketball team or it's a musician i actually look at those and i say you know what people were giving katy perry or somebody a hard time about their jet i can't remember who it was

SPEAKER_45: taylor swift taylor swift and i'm like you know how much joy taylor swift brings people when she plays to a stadium i'm fine with her burning a hundred times as much jet fuel because she's flying to a stadium to make 30 000 people have a great night it's totally fine as opposed to those people going and slapping to her backyard better to fly her there quick in style and let people have that joy just like having a basketball team go from place to place the basketball teams wouldn't be able to do uh the thing that entertains us all you know these cross-country flights to do you know the warriors versus the bulls whatever that's why they used to play regionally is because they were driving greyhound buses right or taking commercial so they they would only play people in their own division

SPEAKER_194: you know the atlantic division played the atlantic division over and over again you'd be like wow

SPEAKER_16: i wonder what's going to happen when they play in the western division you know or pacific whatever

SPEAKER_316: you know place okay i guess we move on yes congratulations seems like it's gonna work

SPEAKER_18: congratulations to boom yeah it's gonna work probably let's go overture should we do a super

SPEAKER_01: quick happy startup of the day we have a really uh happy to do one startup of the day this is just a freaking heart warmer i saw this article in bloomberg this morning um are you familiar with tata group like tata is the big car maker in india among i think other things this company ratan tata is an indian industrialist and he just made this is sort of like a series a slash startup of the day announcement just made a seed investment into a startup that connects young people with senior citizens ratan tata himself is 85 years old okay and put this investment into this company that's called goodfellows and the goal of it is to promote intergenerational friendships basically to connect seniors with recent graduates and allow them to like if you're the senior then the graduates can accompany you on errands do technology tutoring and assistance visit the doctor join with you join you on walks go to curated events and tata gave this quote and said you don't know what it's like to be lonely until you spend time alone wishing for companionship you don't mind getting old until you

SPEAKER_45: get old and you find it's a difficult world i just great startup idea uh we actually had a startup

SPEAKER_16: similar thing uh papa.com uh we had the founder on uh this week at startups at one point uh and papa.com

SPEAKER_45: does it here and papa um gets insurance they get reimbursed by insurance so what papa was doing is

SPEAKER_141: you don't have to bathe the person or you know do some of those or you know high-end stuff right it's not like caretaking necessarily you take them shopping you have dinner with them you play a board game you do errands and so papa's been doing this and companionship services you know we were talking molly before like what happens when these jobs go away when did we were talking about that was that

SPEAKER_326: monday yesterday it was yesterday right monday was adam newman work from home remember i said like

SPEAKER_45: call support jobs sdrs designers video editors you know on the all of these jobs on the bottom half

SPEAKER_145: let's say of that category and increasing are going to be outsourced so what do you do with all these people and i said well there's entry-level jobs that are super important to have in society this is the perfect one you graduate from high school college you make 40 bucks an hour 30 bucks an hour

SPEAKER_28: hanging out with some dope you know old lady accomplished person who can mentor you or you

Jason Calacanis: know or not tell you stories learn tell you stories yeah yeah can you imagine they're telling you

SPEAKER_45: stories like if this was somebody who was 30 years old in the 60s right they experienced the 60s as a

SPEAKER_130: 30 year old right they got great memories or the 70s as a 30 year old wow so they lived through each of

SPEAKER_145: of those they would be now if you were 30 years old in 1960 you would add 60 years years yeah you'd

SPEAKER_333: be 90. maybe 90. and you would have seen you'd be 80 if you experienced the 70s as a 30 year old can you

SPEAKER_145: imagine their stories of like boogie night stories or like woodstock stories or vietnam era like man i would love to sit with somebody who was 85 years old and play checkers or whatever go have a coffee yeah i was

SPEAKER_05: in my 20s and get 30 bucks an hour to do that this company was founded by a 30 year old who says actually

SPEAKER_01: that the idea for the startup came from uh becoming friends with ritan tata so shantanu naidu is the founder um who manages tata's family office it sounds like and startup investment portfolio and they had this friendship they just really had a great rapport and then decided that this should be a company and apparently getting i mean it's just a really it's also just a really interesting story

SPEAKER_258: about a like magnate that tons of people have never heard of ritan people don't know this but tata

SPEAKER_89: produced a two thousand dollar car at one point now i don't know if you want to drive in that car

SPEAKER_111: i don't know it's like on much safety but they were unbelievable um uh at and maybe one of the

SPEAKER_141: producers can find one of these tata cars and what they cost in us dollars but it was unbelievable

SPEAKER_45: what they were able to make and then continuing today i think they make some pretty amazing gas

Jason Calacanis: mileage cars tata himself turned around the tradition about 168 year old steel to airlines group that his great brother grandfather founded and then has turned into this kind of like investing star he became an angel and he's backed over 50 startups including the eyewear retailer lens cart

SPEAKER_01: digital payments brand paytm an electric vehicle startup an online stock trading platform he's like

SPEAKER_201: the best what do you think group of oh yeah there it is the tata nano i remember this car it's just

SPEAKER_37: such an interesting story i wonder what that cost in usds i remember it was three or four thousand

SPEAKER_45: i think it was yeah oh wow tata the world's cheapest car the tata groups nano that sells for twenty five hundred dollars in india may find a place in the u.s garages tata nano may come to the u.s a five thousand dollar price tag i mean that would be crazy that'd be crazy oh i guess they'd

SPEAKER_07: stop making them or they're stopping to make them anyway it's a really nice start for the day really nice very love it isn't that amazing though that like a mountain an e-mountain bike costs five to

SPEAKER_277: ten to fifteen grand depending on which one you get you can buy two tatas or three tata nanos for the

SPEAKER_45: same price that seat four people yeah pretty crazy i think the way they did that was those cars i could be wrong somebody will fact check me but there was a whole movement of taking a scooter or um engines from motorcycles putting them in cars that were lightweight that are meant to go under 55 miles an hour you know like you know like almost like they're golf carts but it is super heartwarming

SPEAKER_349: i'm sorry it is super heartwarming jason's like i just want to talk about the cars and the electric

SPEAKER_42: bikes i'm like dude old people are getting friends it's heartwarming good job good job and shout out to papa right shout out shout out to papa up next on the show because you think it's over but it's not

SPEAKER_01: it's not another edition of everyone's other favorite j trades and the blueprint just like hits

SPEAKER_151: you're just the hit maker there you go up here this week in climate and uh vc sunday school killing it

SPEAKER_45: all right everybody welcome back to the blueprint this is episode six part six of a ten part quick hit mini series can you believe we're now past the halfway mark amazing i want to get right into it today i want to talk about how to get ahead of trends how to master future mediums i get asked this all the time how did you get in early on twitter twitter.com slash jason how'd you get in early on zines in the 90s how'd you get in early on the internet itself how'd you get in early on blogging and sell weblogs inc before most people even knew what blogs were how'd you get in early on angel investing and syndicates how'd you get in early on podcasting i get this question all the time and so i'm going to give you a couple frameworks here just different ways to frame how you look at the world right so framing is critically important if you look up uh behavioral psychology organizational psychology you'll find something called framing it's a school of thought it's a technique how you look at the world right so we i like to talk to people how they frame things when you first look at something and you spot something very early let's say it's tick tock your friend tells you about it uber doordash airbnb twitter podcasting pick a trend could be nfts right blockchain bitcoin it's very easy to look at something and humans take a very pessimistic view early on we're scared creatures why are we scared creatures why do we take a pessimistic view at the new well we take a pessimistic view at the new for a reason when you meet something new in nature and you're like wow look at that big furry thing and then it shows you these giant fangs you're like oh that's a mountain lion the people who would run up and be like oh there's something new let's give it a hug would get eaten or they would be like let's try this piece of fruit and it would be poisonous right so we're conservative being conservative in nature in dna avoiding new things really does make you live longer new thing

SPEAKER_145: might be a river that you come across somebody jumps in the river they try to swim across it alligator gets them the tide gets them boom they just get pulled by the rush of the river and go off a thousand foot uh waterfall you get the idea so you have to retrain yourself to be an early adopter and there's this of course chart that you see all the time early adopters on one side laggers on the other and and the majority right and there's like the the faster majority and the slow majority of people when

SPEAKER_45: they adopt technology or trends i like to as an individual um look at these new trends and instead of being scared of them i like to be curious about them right and i like to look at them and say to myself what if they work right and so you want to anticipate that these things that look like they're not going to work are going to become something big and usually takes three four or five tries for something to actually stick that's one thing i've learned in technology so you know we had things like

SPEAKER_16: six degrees of separation in the 90s uh then you had friendster and myspace you had all these attempts

SPEAKER_45: at social networking and it eventually got to myspace friendster and then this knockoff company called facebook that just knocked off what friendster was doing if you look at the original designs it looks pretty similar but friendster couldn't be kept up and running and myspace let people design their own pages like geo cities did before that which was another community and geo cities and myspace looked sloppy it wasn't organized so it was hard to get adoption long story short those things basically were the precursors to what eventually became social networking so if you were early to myspace but were cynical about friendster and facebook you might have missed being an influencer

SPEAKER_141: or really leveraging social media and building companies in that space like instagram or now even

SPEAKER_45: tick tock if you take the time between when tick tock showed up and when six degrees was around it's it's over 20 years actually or you know when myspace was around you know you're talking about

SPEAKER_141: the 2005 era 2006 era of social networking to now you know it's coming on 20 years and then you have

SPEAKER_145: tick tock show up so things can still show up later on that become big what i do when i see these things is i assume they're going to work i assumed twitter was going to work and i just totally engaged it i was the number two user on twitter at one point in time i kid you not in the first year it was robert scoble myself and then i this uh senator barack obama who was running for president and was in the primaries and was wowing everybody in the primaries and he also had nothing to lose and so he early adopted so uh you want to anticipate that changes are coming you want to look at the early projects and have a very open mind now you'd be like oh jacal you've been so not open-minded to crypto no not true i had bitcoin and i wrote a story about bitcoin when it was under a dollar i was concerned about all the frauds going on but uh you know with all those frauds going on that was different than me looking at the fundamental core technology and saying hey there's something interesting here i still think there's some interesting things as in terms of more internet

SPEAKER_45: from it so assume things are going to work you know you don't want to give up on these new platforms you want to be curious and investigate them i did this a number of times i told you about twitter i also did it with blogging and i did it with podcasting when i started in podcasting it was literally

SPEAKER_141: an ipod and before i did uh you know you would you would basically upload your mp3 file and then it would use a piece of software which called a pod catcher at the time which would take a download on your desktop of an mp3 and put it into an album it would hack the ipod and create an album called podcasting and it would just put a file there there were no rss feeds you know with all the fancy episode numbers and everything back then the standard was very very um janky uh but dave weiner

SPEAKER_45: created that standard uh rss in the 90s then they included audio links in it then the apple itunes store began uh supporting it and that's where you see that famous clip of me asking steve jobs about apple's support of podcasting we'll play that clip right now will you be able to add any rss feed

SPEAKER_362: to the or any podcasts rss feed to itunes or is it only through the store oh you'll be able to add

SPEAKER_364: anything you want completely open we're just working with the open standards out there yeah and

SPEAKER_362: will you uh help companies like ours uh sell podcasts you know be an audible so if we wanted to sell a podcast through your service would you uh help us through the fulfillment um you know we're

SPEAKER_364: planning on having all the podcasts be free at first but uh zing me an email with what you've got in mind and we're open to anything same email i always send it to you yep okay

SPEAKER_141: you got it so i just believed in it with pog and with my friend brian alvey when we did weblogs inc i just believed in it early uh and in fact he was on the podcast recently some people say i sold weblogs inc too early certainly if i kept running it it would have been worth more but i needed the money then because i had no money somebody offered me a lot more money than it was worth at the time so i had no choice but to take it and nobody knew at that time that some crazy swedish streaming service

SPEAKER_45: uh would then decide to go into podcasting or that this crazy swedish music streaming startup called spotify would actually be anything and figure out streaming music so all these weird things will happen and in fact i wrote a blog post here is that blog post the blog post i wrote in 2015 after i had been blogging i had been podcasting for six or seven years at that time and previously

SPEAKER_145: i've been doing uh streaming we had real networks and we used to stream live radio shows anyway

SPEAKER_45: i said howard stern should get out of terrestrial should get out of satellite radio just like he

SPEAKER_145: left terrestrial radio for satellites sxm and he should go do a deal with spotify or just start offering his subscription directly or apple should sign him up for itunes and add this as a content

SPEAKER_45: offering well five years later joe rogan signed a hundred million dollar deal and a lot of people think joe rogan is the successor to howard stern in terms of doing long-form interviews and certainly joe rogan uh has talked many times about how you know he was a big influence so that blog title

SPEAKER_16: was howard stern's easy billion dollar payday uh courtesy of spotify or an app and i'll just read you this little excerpt that i wrote uh because i think it is telling it's time for howard to leave

SPEAKER_45: satellite and go direct to consumers or join spotify either of these will make him 1 billion

SPEAKER_145: here's what howard's 3.0 howard 3.0 would look like 1.0 was terrestrial 2.0 with satellite one howard tapes his show at any time no more waking up 4am and worrying about not being able to take

SPEAKER_45: beth to parties that's his wife if you want to start at 10 a.m or 1 p.m or 10 p.m go for it

SPEAKER_145: what i'm pointing out here is like he wouldn't be tied to like a schedule right and that's exactly what's appealing about podcasting howard tapes his show from anywhere at any time want to stay on the hamptons tape when you're in la sure go set up a couple of microphones and just go howard famously built a studio in la started doing or serious xm built one out there he did some interviews and then he now tapes from his basement at his hamptons home yeah because of covid so those two things have all come to pass and howard started doing shows later in the day etc three never have a boss howard could not have to negotiate with sirius xm four provide your entire catalog free or for subscribers on the internet okay what is the archive of joe rogan worth joe rogan tapes at any time he does it from texas he does it from wherever he is he can do it when he's on the road and he's got this huge archive which is what spotify really wanted to get on there right they get that whole catalog minus the ones

SPEAKER_16: that they felt were too spicy for some of their employees i guess who were or you know maybe

SPEAKER_00: sponsors who weren't happy with them and then allow fans to remix and make clips from the archives and repost to your site that last one is pretty interesting basically what people are doing

SPEAKER_45: now with our clips on tick tock and other places so anyway i did all that math and i just said in that piece i said howard stern could easily drive 1 million new subs for spotify which at 10 a month would generate 120 million a year 560 million market cap increase and so when i did that math it

SPEAKER_141: actually follows exactly like the joe rogan math almost to a scary amount possibly because they gave

SPEAKER_07: joe rogan i believe 200 million or something for a couple years and so this is how you can predict

SPEAKER_45: the future you just assume it's going to work and when you assume it's going to work oh my lord do you seem clairvoyant because a lot of things work now most things don't but a lot of things do and the benefit you get from believing in a platform early or believing in a technology early is you get to reap the rewards because you get to understand it and build before anybody else even knows what it is now sometimes you can go off on a rabbit hunt people who are in vr spent 30 years building vr experiences and they threw it all away nobody ever really used their technology right and to this day vr is still minor people who are in early on vr though this is what zuckerberg is hoping maybe they become the standard and they reap the reward and so all of that you know when i was talking about howard stern you know having subscribers possibly and podcasters driving subscriptions for a platform like spotify you know when i was talking about that it was it's very interesting because it also put me on the road to appreciating other subscription businesses we famously invested in com.com before anybody else believed in consumer subscriptions and they said that's stupid who's going to pay money to buy meditation content you can get free on youtube and they got millions of subscribers and then we did fitbot and steezy tone base and uh fluent forever and musician we found other reoccurring consumer subscriptions and of course that's led me to do j trading in warner brothers discovery and disney because of disney plus i figured out early just because of my use of podcasting that subscriptions would be coming and then it led to me investing in a bunch of companies now i missed some i passed on master class i didn't get an opportunity to invest in shrava but i use slopes for skiing uh i use zero for fasting consumer subscriptions have become amazing businesses so what you might learn from getting in early on something is not just how it applies to that one company but how it applies to all of business right now there's a final word here you're saying hey what about fads what about things that fade all right let's think about the cost the downside risk let's say you went all in on vr in the 90s and it didn't become something well you may have learned that hardware is really hard and you may have learned that processors are not ready to do the fidelity or screens are not ready to do the fidelity that is necessary for vr so what do you do well just like steve jobs they presented him with the ipad first and he's like you know what this touch screen isn't very responsive the battery life sucks what if you made a small one and we made a phone first and he famously said phone then ipad because if we wait to do the ipad in a couple years we'll have sold a bunch of these phones we'll know how the touch screen works we'll get the battery life better we'll get the processors will be faster and then the ipad will be snappier and anybody who used the original ipad it didn't feel very snappy uh can you imagine if it was released three years earlier and had a bigger screen and more to process exactly now and you look at nfts right now do i think board apes and you know this uh other nfts are going to be around in 10 years i don't i actually think you

SPEAKER_145: know board ape club and uh you know all these other you know popular ones i think they're probably going to be remembered as beanie babies they'll trade for nothing they'll be like some weird group of people who's really into them like people are into dungeons and dragons or you know certain comic books or whatever i don't think that those are actually going to be the winners it's possible they

SPEAKER_141: were saw was this one like uh crypto punks i think all of those will trend you know down as newer better ones so these ones will be the friendster and the myspace board apes crypto punks if you own them i would sell half your position if you're up if you can fractionalize it or if you own two sell one um and bank that money because i think they go the way of i'm not kidding myspace and

SPEAKER_45: friends which is they'll be the precursor to some facebook instagram tick tock that's yet to come something more sophisticated with more features that's faster better and delights users more has more utility in the world now what does that mean for you well part of understanding this

SPEAKER_141: is having played with those so i used to play with all the social you know products out there flickr uh had friends and you know before you know facebook even existed so you can learn a lot

SPEAKER_45: by playing with a fad and then apply it to the next one that arrives industry changing trends um they continue to repeat and rhyme and so once you get into it you have that flow just like eminem can just rap and when he talks he just talks and raps sometimes so you've ever seen that great anderson cooper 60 minutes interview you realize the guy has been rhyming words so often and been thinking about

SPEAKER_145: how to rhyme words that it's preternatural for him it makes him uh really just understand the chess

SPEAKER_45: board in a way that like a grand master does and there are people who are so good at poker that they can just read what's happening in the situation one two three four five ten percent better than anybody else at the table or some people when they're playing chess just kind of get a feel for it right it becomes intuitive well what i hope for you is you start examining quote unquote fads you know which are attempts to change the world and you start looking at those trends and become good at spotting trends early evaluating them understanding them being curious about them investigating them soaking in them and then you'll just become so much more clever at spotting the

SPEAKER_16: next one and exploiting the next one and that's really what i've made a career of right i've really just been able to understand these new mediums newsletters is what i even bring up here i've been

SPEAKER_145: doing newsletters since the 90s and i figured out how newsletters work and inside.com is crushing it our newsletter so i hope this helps i hope you enjoyed the blueprint all 10 parts will live at this week in startups.com the blueprint and we'll make short videos out of this hey if you want to impress me i'd love for somebody out there to take these tick tocks and make me versions of them if you make a great one maybe i'll buy it from you on spec and put it on our youtube channel or if you're a super fan just do it because you want to and you want the shout out whichever you prefer i'm happy to pay for it or if you make a great one and it trends on uh tick tock or youtube shorts uh i'm happy to shout you out or do you a favor all right everybody see you next time bye bye