SPEAKER_00: essentially sam alden said hey uh we face a lot of limitations and hard decisions about how we allocate our compute resources towards ideas so essentially jason they're compute constrained

SPEAKER_03: even with lazure in their pocket that blew my mind yeah they're blowing through 5 10 million

SPEAKER_05: 10 billion a year in infrastructure and losing a lot of money um and that does say something that you know they're they're running out of bandwidth and i saw jensen wong who was talking about elon standing up this giant uh cluster so the build out keeps occurring i do think the interface of chat

SPEAKER_07: gpt is superior to any other interface but the results are not this week in startups is brought

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SPEAKER_15: oracle.com twist all right everybody welcome back to this week in startups it's friday it's november 1st we

SPEAKER_17: are but four days from the election and we're not going to talk about that today we're going to talk about startups technology so this is a great reprieve for all of you that are white knuckling it to the end of the election or hopefully if you're a founder of a startup you're focused on your team your product and

SPEAKER_19: your customers with me again today as always alex wilhelm how are you sir uh you know i'm good i'm

SPEAKER_00: also very glad that this is our little election free safe zone because i feel like everywhere else i look if i open the door election turn on the sports game election so you know a little break sounds good

SPEAKER_25: yeah i'm so good who's gonna win who's gonna win let me ask you i mean it is crazy to think

SPEAKER_05: that the prediction markets are like coming back down to the uh they were obviously very much in favor of trump but they they seem to have come down to the uh polls and the pollsters right it's close the gap is closing and we're in a dead heat and i asked date silver on twitter like when's the last time it was like this was it al gore and bush and i don't even think that 2000 election was this close

SPEAKER_00: yeah well one thing i've been tracking very carefully apart from polymarket and call she and other prediction markets probably robin hood got in on that shout out to robin hood um but i just pulled up the data according to um the latest information from nbc 64.9 million votes have already been cast wow that is crazy we talk about the election day and we'll count all those on election day but i mean the election is now you know it's ongoing but uh jason we have a a really

SPEAKER_35: awesome show we have with us today we have the founder of a company called extend robotics that's going to tell us all about teleoperation vr and how to grab little grapes with a robot then an upcoming

SPEAKER_00: bill in the senate that might bring private market investing to everybody and we have a raft of critical earnings updates and if you and i don't yap too much we'll talk a little bit about apple's new satellite deal new stuff from open ai and i pulled some new chinese ev clips for you

SPEAKER_37: so lots to do lots to do today on this week in startups let's get started i had seen alex uh a video

SPEAKER_05: of grapes being picked by robots and ai we had an investment in a company uh root ai that was doing picking of berries and this is i think something we're gonna see in the coming years general robotics powered by ai large language models helping the robotics you know move from doing very vertical tasks to doing very general tasks so vertical ai i think everybody knows like you can teach ai how to play chess or poker and have it really focus on that set of heuristics rules strategies uh just like cafe x

SPEAKER_40: could have uh be the startup we invested in that makes coffee a very constrained uh ability to make

SPEAKER_30: coffee in a box but to have a robot go fold your laundry pick grapes and make you coffee that's a whole different ball of black so let's introduce our guest today and see what he's up to yes so with us

SPEAKER_00: today is dr chang lu the founder and ceo over at extend robotics dr lu i'm gonna call you chang because

SPEAKER_47: that's gonna be a lot simpler but hey how you doing hello very good great to see you alex great to see you take out how are you definitely a big fan of the both of you and uh yeah and uh twist and uh

SPEAKER_50: and the audience podcast is definitely a big fan yeah uh so tell us what you're working on and the

SPEAKER_05: progress you're making you heard my little t up about robotics and how it might change over the coming years because of advancements specifically in llms and ai learning so quickly and sort of

SPEAKER_54: generalized ai versus vertical ai and and do you think i got that sort of teeing it up correct

SPEAKER_55: yeah definitely definitely uh you've you've had a really good summary um but um yeah just generally

SPEAKER_50: for extend robotics we are a uk startup uh starting in 2019 um yeah i mean the extend really the purpose is to develop robotic software to extend human capabilities um beyond physical presence uh ultimately to amplify world's uh labor productivities through uh immersive technology robotics and artificial intelligence so um yeah so our purpose is really helping the world making that transition from those traditional vertical uh factory automations into this real world general purpose automations uh really the aim is to combat the uh labor shortage obviously um everybody's talking about that um yeah but but obviously we we understand the the real world automation is difficult um because it have to um require like a multi-purpose system working for high variability tasks in those dynamic environments right and and that's that's generally deemed impossible previously and uh and uh and we see there's a breakthrough since the i would say led by chat gpt that the the new generative ai is taking over on text demand or conversational demands but but but we see there's opportunity to embody those similar ai systems into physical uh form factor like robots and enable human-like experience even for

SPEAKER_05: physical works so we just saw one of your handheld robots um doing lab work um and picking grapes

SPEAKER_30: explain to us what's happening in that video if we pull it up again maybe you could sportscast this and tell us you know did the robot was it trained already on how to pick grapes or did you just tell

SPEAKER_40: it pick grapes or pick whatever you see in front of you if you think it's ripe like how much training

SPEAKER_30: do we have if we you know we see a robot here doing a handshake what do you call those robots that have like two or three hinges on them um yeah that we see in a factory what are those called i mean normally

SPEAKER_47: uh we call it a mobile manipulator i mean these ones in the shown in the video uh we recently has more

SPEAKER_50: more human-like uh form factors with two arms and uh similar mobile base i mean we developed software that is trying to be more widely compatible with off-the-shelf parts so we don't manufacture hardware so i don't want to compete on on that but but uh we build software that is trying to give a lot of options for people to build their own um setups um uh so our software is basically a virtual reality applications that people can use to upgrade their robots um and uh and and people can use once upgraded they can wear a vr headset they can use their gestures to operate robots and they can have finger level controls as well on on the on hands so the purpose of the software is has three purpose first is to be able to uh teleoperate robots in real time and then the second is to um to collect data or for ai trainings and then the third is to um to inference ai and and be able to uh supervise and uh and provide interventions when needed and and obviously uh the hope is that we can uh we can allow the the the seamless um shared automations happening both both with human as well as uh as ai combined together and they can basically complement each other over time and as as ai goes more capable

SPEAKER_00: then i want to jump in there so i know that extend is working with uh queen mary university on this grape picking project but just to make sure that i understand the the current level of the technology is teleoperation robotic arms in the field and then allowing the robots to learn from humans doing the motions for them to actually pick the grapes but in time this will get to the point when the

SPEAKER_63: robots are able to do it mostly by themselves i presume yes yes exactly we certainly view the

SPEAKER_50: automation as a spectrum rather than a overnight miracle step change uh and and there's always some level of human there and and uh and hopefully towards the towards the um future uh there will be less of a human and more of a ai uh in in the process uh we call it a human in the loop ai right and and as as a as a work collaboration between human and ai it means that it makes this smooth transition basically where uh one one human can can simultaneously supervise more and more robots depending on the level of autonomy that each robot becomes so that's why we we amplify uh labor we don't replace labor we amplify labor with ai and and uh it's it's going towards the same direction but obviously we we're

SPEAKER_67: proposing a more uh smooth transition here all right listen interest rates are coming down but it's still hard to raise a new round everybody knows that the last thing you need is to get bogged down in the minutiae while raising so if you're a founder overwhelmed with your cap table management due diligence and frankly managing your investors you need to check out fidelity private shares fidelity understands that dealing with equity can be incredibly time consuming that's why some founders joke that fundraising is a full-time job i'm not working on my startup i'm managing my investors i'm doing fundraisers and it shouldn't be right with fidelity private shares you're going to easily manage your cap table and your data room you're going to get a more accurate 409a valuation and you're going to get it quicker you'll also be able to model the future of your company's equity which you need to do as the founder because this dilution adds up people start signing notes they don't know what the impact of those notes will be and you know you want to model that out and you can fully automate your next funding round so you stay on track you seem professional even if you're scattered you know you want to come across as very professional and buttoned up and that's what having a great partner like fidelity will do and you're going to get great support from fidelity a great startup community they do a lot of cool events with founders and vcs i'm going to be going to some of them so check out fidelity private shares at fidelity private shares.com mention our

SPEAKER_66: podcast you're going to receive 20 off your first year paid subscription and alex this is what we i

SPEAKER_05: think are hearing about self-driving that there's 1.5 mission specialists we were told at waymo we don't know if that's true waymo says it's not true cruise had virtual operators the idea here is

SPEAKER_40: humans in the loop watching the ai learn and then eventually it steps back and watches 10 people

SPEAKER_05: picking grapes or it goes from one and a half or two car robo taxis to 10 to 100 and then the mission specialists which i love that term eventually are just looking at very uh unique moments in time

SPEAKER_73: yes professor exactly exactly so they they generally should be just the supervising what's happening

SPEAKER_50: and just monitoring uh just in case and then only you only need it they come in and supervise as the provide those interventions um and always you can you can uh you can teleoperate whenever you need

SPEAKER_00: so i want to i want to talk about the grapes though because one thing that i i don't know much about growing grapes for wine but i do know you have to be pretty delicate with the actual fruits themselves so how how much of a challenge was it to train these arms or teleoperate them to not you know break the skin of the fruit and ruin essentially the wine harvest yeah so there's certainly

SPEAKER_50: level of integrations uh innovations needs to happen in some in terms of the sensory informations be able to sense force at the end factor to uh to both provide feedback for operators but also a bit of information for the ai models make sure there is a clear feedback on on applying force because obviously for grapes is a it's very important to make sure not damaging them and they are very uh delicate and uh and and especially for one making um as we're working with uh suffering grunge is the uh uh one english sparkling wine maker and uh they're very keen i mean they're very uh uh they work really hard to make sure the the the wine is on a good uh quality um and we're working with quimera universities that are very experienced on uh custom end effectors to be able to uh in uh incorporate force into into the sensings and we come in as a as a human in the loop ai software um capabilities as a consortium we try to build this together but dr lu in effectuator is

SPEAKER_80: just a fancy term for robot hand right ripper i think rippers is the term that i've heard right

SPEAKER_50: grippers is that yeah i'm in in robotics yeah grippers and the factors um sometimes you can you

SPEAKER_17: can have different form factor for the other quipers yeah okay when do you think a wine harvest will be done completely robotically what year if we were to put a bet on this yeah i think i mean in terms

SPEAKER_64: of our current project we are we obviously quite early in the in the stage i would say uh in the in

SPEAKER_50: the next three to five years this is something uh could be commercialized but obviously this is always also a a process of commercialization of commercial adoptions uh that's going to take some time but i think technologically um we're we're getting more mature in the in the next five three

SPEAKER_91: to five years i think what's going to be amazing about this alex is if you think about training

SPEAKER_05: skilled or unskilled workers right and when people start the job they're unskilled and then over a decade maybe they become skilled at it sure it's got to be extremely frustrating as somebody who want

SPEAKER_40: runs a vineyard to have new people typically probably migrant workers come in and then train them of how to not damage the vines and how to do this correctly and now if this becomes automated then that means whoever the best uh caretaker was of these grapes and these vines would become the global single um

SPEAKER_07: vine manager in the world so this is a really interesting concept alex imagine if you had one if you had the greatest pilot of all time let's say sully who landed the miracle in the hudson let's say he is in fact the greatest pilot of all time you could have that pilot in every single plane here you could have the person who manages vines the most perfectly manage every vine in the world in other

SPEAKER_40: words the most perfect practitioner for any sport behavior in the world and then the really dystopian or

SPEAKER_17: weird moment in time for all of this alex will be i think instead of having migrant workers leave mexico to come to california to pick grapes they could stay in mexico not cross the border and have vr

SPEAKER_05: headsets and have the robots in napa doing this work it's kind of crazy when you think about that three

SPEAKER_00: to five year period no alex i i mean i think one thing that we underestimate as a as a technological breakthrough is just broadband penetration around the world because what undergirds what you just said it's just fast connections now dr lou um i presume that if i'm going to interact with one of these robotic arms with the gripper at the end i need a pretty fast connection how latent is the i move my hand

SPEAKER_99: and then the robot moves its own arm is there a number you can put on that yeah yeah so uh so actually

SPEAKER_50: is streaming the data streaming uh latency and bandwidth reduction uh is this one of our key uh ip about uh ability to really quickly compress the data especially in in this case we're compressing 3d data to enable immersive experience in vr um and and we have the full uh patent on on it and uh basically we can we can our ability to to stream data is is about um a hundred 150 milliseconds and that's obviously on top of the latency of the of the network okay um and will it work on a commercial internet or

SPEAKER_05: do you have to have a dedicated network and would it work on say a 5g network could you do this with a

SPEAKER_102: verizon or even a starlink satellite connection from a low earth orbit satellite or is the latency not

SPEAKER_50: good enough on those platforms we can already do that yes um so uh we can we can use on wi-fi uh 5g uh we we're we're we're just working on testing on on starlinks um yeah so in fact i think starting this is probably the the lowest latency in terms of network because you don't have to go through the the um the fibers so um so it's more straight straight line but we're working on testing that um but but generally ability to compress data small enough that you can actually stream over that uh standard network is is one of the core uh capabilities we can offer after after wine what do you got what's

SPEAKER_05: the next after you pick grapes or is it just the company's going to work on picking grapes for a couple

SPEAKER_82: of years uh yeah we actually uh so we're quite wide in terms of uh adoptions so we have we we've been

SPEAKER_50: we actually started with uh nuclear uh applications as a as a teleoperation interface working with atkin release um and uh we then we then take on some projects with with airbus on space robotics uh and uh and recently we started this this new uh new ground i mean uh a year or two a year and a half into this future future farming projects that is on agriculture applications and i think we are we're getting into the field that we are a lot of attractions coming in from from manufacturing industries uh especially automotive and a few more um like manufacturing applications where we see there's a lot of labor shortage as well so i think we are getting towards this this phase where we start to focus on uh manufacturing but i think all these applications really really allow us to build a general purpose technology and for us uh because the the the technology is so general purpose and and uh and widely applicable um all of these applications and really contribute to advancing the technology

SPEAKER_68: well we are we're we're looking at uh more commercial adoptions at uh manufacturing applications

SPEAKER_00: all right dr lu we have to let you go but one more question before we do i know you're a uk-based startup i also know that you guys have raised some grant money from the uk government

SPEAKER_35: how supportive has the the uk been to its startup community lately i know we're in a post brexit world but i love talking to folks from different countries so just give us the quick lay of the land

SPEAKER_64: for building a technology company in the uk i think the uk is probably one of the best uh environment

SPEAKER_50: for startup in if you are a uh software focused startup software and ai um and then there's a lot of government support in terms of pushing innovations happenings um and and helping startups small companies to to innovate um and there's a lot of venture capitals uh available that uh to talk to

SPEAKER_68: especially around london area um there's yeah so i think i think is a good uh good starting starting

SPEAKER_00: point uh when you uh when you make your next trip to london to get a big check shoot me an email and uh we'll catch up on that because i'm very curious to see how the company goes but uh dr lou thank you very much extend robotics everybody you can google it and uh if you're into sparkling wine perhaps

SPEAKER_114: check out and saffron grange yes all right thanks doctor also appreciate it appreciate it good work up

SPEAKER_05: really interesting i think when we see these demos and you know a lot of times i'll see them go by on linkedin or ax and in the production team we talk about it what's underpinning this change where

SPEAKER_40: are the second order effects that will happen is what i always try to go to because then we can figure

SPEAKER_05: out the trends and i think there's a couple of very interesting ones here one is the greatest single

SPEAKER_17: practitioner in every vertical i don't know how to phrase this exactly but the perfect pilot i think might be the way to think about this and we're the perfect poker player sure you are going to have for

SPEAKER_07: every profession the greatest practitioner addressing every single instance of that task and so for picking

SPEAKER_40: grapes it seems mundane it probably seems like not super important um but it probably is uh because

SPEAKER_07: great winemaking requires winemakers and in this entire process all the secrets will eventually wind up in ai and the quality of wine like the bottom half of wine

SPEAKER_40: could become as good as the top half because all of the secrets all of the little nuance will be captured so it will elevate uh the cost of it will elevate the quality while reducing the cost

SPEAKER_67: founders i know that you're keeping a close eye on your burn rate i am too in today's venture market every single hire you make has to be perfect right you can't make mistakes you got to keep that runway as long as possible so that you can run more experiments and you need talented people to run those experiments and figure out how you're going to get product market fit how you're going to scale your company and that's why you need to use linkedin jobs as you know linkedin brings you the candidates that you can't find anywhere else linkedin passed the 1 billion member mark think about that 1 billion members and 70 percent of linkedin users don't visit the other leading job sites this is a phenomenal statistic they don't even go to the other job sites why because they might not be looking and those are the best hires but they're hanging out on linkedin doing professional development checking in on their network building their network sharing content finding leads all that great stuff bottom line there's amazing hires waiting for your company on linkedin and nowhere else and they have a special deal right now post a job for free what f-r-e-e what a great price linkedin.com twist that's right linkedin.com twist to post your job for free terms and conditions course apply i want to double click on

SPEAKER_01: on exactly your thinking here because to me the best pilot the example you used was solely definitely a flesh and blood human but when you talk about um these ai models becoming the best at what they do do are you referring to like a digital digitally trained ai that learned from the best human to

SPEAKER_40: then become the best technology product you would assume that all of this monitoring of great humans would then result in the greatest jedi pilot of all time and it could also learn just from all scenarios so if there is a scenario where you know when you're picking grapes to learn hey you know this bundle of grapes needs 24 more hours on the line and this one you know we missed and we should have picked it

SPEAKER_07: earlier over time learning that is uh something that could come from a human's uh perception or over time the ai could learn hey when we produce this vintage of wine it got a lower score than the last five years right and let's go back and replay what we did and that type of um diligence on tasks exists for planes every time a plane crashes we have this wonderful thing that happens out of that tragedy which is the entire system gets better they focus so much energy at such great cost on making

SPEAKER_40: travel safe that we're now at a point where we've had no commercial airline deaths in america in like a decade yeah it's phenomenal and you know tragically whenever the next one occurs they will put millions and millions of dollars into figuring out why that happened even if it was a drunk pilot or just a broken bolt and it's like super obvious they will track that down now that doesn't happen those kind of post-mortems those kind of debriefs does not happen when you're picking grapes i'm

SPEAKER_130: certain so now you're going to have that occurring so the perfect pilot for every profession is coming

SPEAKER_20: the perfect professional for everything i hear the implied add back to the theme list so trust me it's

SPEAKER_134: going on um one last note about this before we move also by the way the other piece the the part two of

SPEAKER_40: this is how strange is it that tele commuting remote work is going to be global so we're sitting here watching amazon and andy jassy deal with like a mutiny over at amazon for when they come back five days a week in january and here we're gonna have people potentially picking grapes from mexico who would be migrant workers but since we were shutting the border down they would be able to do that work in a call center or

SPEAKER_07: from their home with a satellite connection just in the same way athena uh go to athenawow.com

SPEAKER_30: and get a virtual assistant we're investors in the company full disclosure um just like you could have somebody in manila working in your operations department like we do

SPEAKER_05: here at launch and many other startups have virtual assistants because you can't find assistance and

SPEAKER_134: admin workers in the united states sadly people don't want that job here so it's really interesting those two components of this that i am not struggling with but kind of inspired by yeah it's going to be

SPEAKER_00: interesting to see how long us-based developers can charge the wage premium they have been compared to their international compatriots like if for example if you're a pretty solid developer in the us and you live in seattle and you work for amazon or microsoft and then you move to i don't know france i mean you would take a pretty serious salary reduction so by that logic and to your point about teleoperation and people from around the world taking more part in the economy as we see from our end does that mean that in time one of a developer's best traits in the us is going to be their ability to go to an office because the person in london or manila or wherever can't so i wonder if that's going to be their their saving grace i think that will be

SPEAKER_05: part of it just like uh a sommelier you could have the greatest sommelier in the world telecommute in to tell you what to order but you'd still want to go to the restaurant and have that experience of the sommelier

SPEAKER_17: in person you know real world meat space as we call it back in the day you know would be uh charming and

SPEAKER_07: wonderful and uh i think that's probably how this will hash out and they'll just be a global standard for salaries that i think we're going to because if you look you know like you'll have somebody in manila

SPEAKER_05: uh or india or kenya these are all emerging markets for virtual assistants business process outsourcing and they're all let's call it low single digits per hour workers three four five dollars an hour in the united states minimum wage seven eight bucks i think but the average wage more like fifteen to twenty five and an assistant in um any major city would be fifty sixty seventy k probably which then puts you at thirty five dollars an hour thirty dollars an hour something in that range

SPEAKER_07: and so that's what i think is happening is you're you're going to just see the the salaries converge on a global average for work and then people will decide if they want the luxury item of having the person in

SPEAKER_05: person to your point like maybe the 150 or 250 000 developer coming to the office at meta making high-end decisions will be fine that person gets 250 000 for dragging their ass into an office and eating yeah you know thirty dollar neiman ranch steaks for free and then they'll have five developers working

SPEAKER_40: for them for 50k each you know the same salary on their squad and i think that's like going to be a

SPEAKER_63: very interesting efficiency play it's going to be tough yeah it's gonna be tough for people in the us who

SPEAKER_80: are accustomed to being i what you're saying is the a plus players are fine they will work with a plus players in lower cost of living areas what if you're a bee you're you're screwed yeah i really

SPEAKER_00: that seems to be bummed b is not better it's bummed out b is for bye bye we're done with you it's there's there's a lot coming here i want to make one last point though about wine um i had to quit drinking but when i used to drink i used to drink a lot of whiskey big fan um love scotch my scotch tastes quickly it surpassed my budget actually so i switched to bourbon uh but i heard a really funny apocryphal story about a scotch distillery and uh they got some sort of like health inspection you know people wanted to come and open the doors and look at them and they found their room where the whiskey was aging

SPEAKER_35: and it was just full of cobwebs like just an absolute mess and the health inspector's like you guys you got to clear this out you can't have i mean this is a health hazard and such and the the

SPEAKER_00: whiskey guys were like but but if we take them out they've been in for so long what if that changes the flavor all that's to say that the alcohol industry is not exactly progressive on technology at all points but the labor shortage will drive a demand for technology products and so i think that's exactly

SPEAKER_07: right you know if you um do not have vibrant immigration in your country and you're do the protectionist thing which you know people have the right to do and then societies can make that decision japan certainly made one yeah where you know you can't be a citizen of japan but they're they're

SPEAKER_05: trying to get people to move there to work to fill those gaps and they're they're quite promiscuous uh

SPEAKER_07: promiscuous when it comes to giving visas uh but not citizenship you're going to see that blend but if you

SPEAKER_05: can't find workers people are going to find other solutions this happened in the cashier business and the concept of a cashier 10 years ago you would be perplexed to go into a restaurant a quick serve restaurant and not see cashiers and here we are 10 years later you would be perplexed to not see

SPEAKER_117: online ordering and so things can move quickly and humans can adapt very quickly to these changing

SPEAKER_162: circumstances yeah all right let's talk about ai everybody it's everywhere self-driving cars

SPEAKER_164: breakthrough medical research and of course business tools that make everybody better and faster at their jobs if ai hasn't hit your industry yet trust me it is on the way and it's happening fast but ai requires a ton of computing power you know that and those costs will skyrocket if you're not careful i have seen these bills come in it can get crazy quick and that's why it's time for you to upgrade to the next generation of cloud and that means oracle cloud infrastructure or oci oci is a blazing fast and secure platform that covers all the bases infrastructure databases app development and of course all your startups ai and machine learning needs now here's the kicker oci costs 50 less for compute and 80 less for network compared to other cloud options that's a lot of savings especially when every minute counts in the cloud thousands of businesses have already upgraded to oci including mgm resorts specialized bikes and fireworks ai so here's your call to action right now if you switch to oci oracle is offering to cut your current cloud bill in half for new us customers with minimum financial commitment but you'll need to act fast the offer ends december 31st 2024 see if your company qualifies for this special offer at oracle.com twist oracle.com twist let's uh keep

SPEAKER_167: moving down the docket here i know we got a lot to get to yeah so one thing that hasn't changed and

SPEAKER_00: some people wish that it would is the rules about investing in private companies if you are a us citizen jason uh there is a thing called the investor accreditation program if you meet certain thresholds you're considered to be intelligent enough to buy uh securities that are not publicly traded but there's some movement in the senate to actually change that but first i want you to tell

SPEAKER_01: people what does it mean to be an accredited investor sure we have laws in this country around

SPEAKER_07: accreditation it basically means that you make over two hundred thousand dollars a year or you have a million dollars in net worth and it combined with your spouse if you're in a couple and so it basically means if you're in the top five percent of earners or wealth holders in the united states you're what's called accredited another word for this might be sophisticated intelligent but accredited is the word they use now when you have that status which you could have gotten from winning the lottery having a great job that pays well um having an inheritance any of those possibilities could you could be involved in uh some illegal activity any of those reasons that you have accumulated wealth

SPEAKER_40: in the mind of the sec and our government means you can take the risk of investing in alternative assets

SPEAKER_07: alternatives in this case would be private companies so you could invest in uber or linkedin before they were public when something's public it goes through a lot of vetting a lot of sunlight a lot of audits we still have fraud in public companies but it is a fraction of what could happen in private companies like theranos or we work where you saw fraud or incompetence or just the wild west it doesn't necessarily even have to be fraud it could just be they're swinging for the fences and things can come apart at the seams now the reason we do this in america is to protect what the government very um um condescendingly uh believes that 95 of the citizenry here are stupid and unable to make these decisions at the same time so you can go on to draft kings and you know or prize picks and do a parlay and bet on the knicks or wherever you feel like it which i'm totally in favor of and i think it's great you could bet on public equities um and on the margins you can do crypto and crypto falls into

SPEAKER_40: this so the question is who gets to participate in this and the reason it's important is because true

SPEAKER_07: wealth creation and the ability to move from one strata to the next is largely determined by your ability to bet on these and i'm saying bad because it is a risk to make these investments in um highly

SPEAKER_17: volatile uh assets and if you were to have the ability to invest in uber when it was 5 million that

SPEAKER_40: could work out very well for you or if you could invest you know in linkedin or doordash and you know what if you worked in human resources or you were a cab driver and you saw linkedin or you drove

SPEAKER_17: for uber you would immediately want to put a thousand dollars into those companies and you would be rewarded with a thousand x or more so i'm very much in favor of allowing people to take a test to become what i'll call sophisticated and actually we have tests for cutting people's hair if you want to cut people's hair for driving cars and in some cases for owning a firearm in some places you can just get one but we don't have tests for gambling on sports or going to vegas and playing blackjack i actually

SPEAKER_07: would be in favor of if somebody wanted to go to vegas and gamble them having to take a test on each game

SPEAKER_05: that they play i'm dead serious if you wanted to buy more than a thousand dollars in chips why not give people like a little test here's the rules of blackjack here's the rules of poker you have to

SPEAKER_07: know how flush beats a straight now you can play um i would actually be okay with that and and that's

SPEAKER_192: the same situation here i'm just thinking about how much money that would have saved me with

SPEAKER_00: regarding the game of craps throughout my life in which i put money down on the table magic happens and then my money goes away never understood the connection between the things it just evaporates from the table um now the thing about the number of people who count as accredited investors is very interesting the journal covered this empowering main street in america act which is what we're talking about the bill in the senate but the thing is the number of people who meet the accredited investor test if you will or threshold has dramatically expanded so back in the day jason your five percent number would have been dead on it was 1.8 percent of households in 83 but thanks to inflation and just the changing value of money right now there's 24.3 million u.s households or just about 18 percent

SPEAKER_01: that meet this threshold so my point is this we've already allowed the accredited investor standard

SPEAKER_35: to dilute itself so much that it's become pretty much meaningless so then why do we need it why don't

SPEAKER_07: we just get rid of this i think the answer to your question is because if you were running the sec like

SPEAKER_05: gary gensler is you would have the mandate to protect consumers above all else and that mandate

SPEAKER_40: then means when something like ftx happens you have egg on your face you bear the brunt of that so they

SPEAKER_07: are risk averse which is the mandate they've been given they are not given the mandate to have the polarization of wealth and the wealth gap in our country close and that's what actually this legislation would do if people who were just starting their careers who had under 200 000 in net worth but you know who made 75 000 working at a venture firm or in human resources or in accounting and they happen to see coinbase or you know um linkedin which is such a great example because so many people got their jobs on linkedin or posted jobs yeah on linkedin and and those folks would not have met in almost all circumstances the in the majority of circumstances they accredited but they would know that that was a good bet to make and here you know that that is the reason and incentives really matter the incentive

SPEAKER_05: the sec is not to get poor people to become middle class or middle class people to become millionaires that's not their mandate their mandate is to protect the public and build trust in the financial system okay fair enough but that's that's the problem it's sort of like with the rocket ships and the launches in california you have the coastal commission which you know i guess virtue has this virtuous mission to protect the coastline california's great asset is the coast it's like this incredible you know natural bounty but we kind of want to get to mars and get things in space as well but their mandate is to protect the coastline and okay if you want to protect the coastline oh you should just say don't

SPEAKER_07: build anything no houses no rockets no pier and you know we had this in san francisco i remember in the

SPEAKER_200: bay area when i lived there somebody wanted to put up this ferris wheel in golden gate park i don't know if you remember that the first great idea i would totally have used that and like people were like

SPEAKER_05: you know what we don't want to have like the london giant ferris wheel because um i don't want to look at it it's in my backyard and then the other group of people were like but kids and couples in the middle of a romance would go up there and you know propose to each other and it would be charming

SPEAKER_07: and wonderful and you know the naysayers win uh and so that's really what's happening here is the

SPEAKER_05: incentive for one group of people is outweighing the big picture and then that's where leadership comes in and this is i think what's happening now people will when they make the sophisticated test

SPEAKER_40: and people take it it should be in my mind a three or four hour preparation for the test and it should be 50 to 100 questions in other words it should be the equivalent of i don't know a driver's license i

SPEAKER_05: think the driver's license is probably the right amount of work you could pass the driver's license

SPEAKER_45: test and practical driving with what three or four hours of training don't tell a 16 year old alex who

SPEAKER_05: failed it the first time well you were probably not paying attention so anyway i think this is great we're starting to see this now come up over and over again and if we do this it'll make america more

SPEAKER_17: competitive because more people will become wealthy more people will put risk capital to work and the amount of appreciation in companies ultimately happens in the private market more than it happens in the public markets today so if you were to invest in i don't know instacart or something or reddit how much of that occurred in the private markets you know as opposed to the public markets probably a lot of the

SPEAKER_211: acceleration occurred in the private markets if you want to put that into perspective imagine a

SPEAKER_00: company that goes public at say a 10 billion dollar valuation and then a year later it's gained 40 and now it's worth 14 billion great but that means that your possible returns as a public market investor were 40 but if you bought in at a 10 million dollar valuation it's several hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of percent um if you want more about this it's uh senator tim scott south carolina is the driving force behind it and it has a lot of other stuff in it as well including extending the jobs act to our companies with up to two billion dollars in revenue to go public under different rules and there's a lot to it but mostly i think it's a good package of things and i hope that people don't get their faces ripped off too often but capitalism i mean could it be any worse than buying

SPEAKER_05: crypto coins that have no value in the real world i mean be worse than that could it be worse than

SPEAKER_40: gambling on sports i i don't think it's going to be worse than those two and we allow those and it

SPEAKER_05: can't be worse than going to vegas and playing crap so this by default i think will be this will exist investing in private companies will exist exactly between gambling and sports you know going to vegas and public markets which seems reasonable there could be something right in the middle which is you invested in a company it was private the founders were lunatics they took a ton of risk and they lost your money okay you know you but you only put five percent of your net worth into it so the other 95 were your home your equities your bond your wealth front perfectly designed portfolio whatever it is

SPEAKER_00: you know i remember this tweet that i saw this guy was like you know angel investing is the best way to have less money and i just i just died because i mean if you're angel investing you're i mean that's idea stage couple people and like three lines of code like i mean i wrote a book on it you are gonna need

SPEAKER_05: to hit 30 40 50 qualified investments according to every angel i've ever talked to they've said between

SPEAKER_07: 30 and 50 is the number of bets you have to place in order to have one power law potentially nothing is guaranteed potentially let you hit break even in a profit and beat what happens in a low cost index fund

SPEAKER_05: now you do have the outlier that you could hit some grand slam and that's and that's reason enough in my mind to do it with a low single digit percentage points of your net worth that is the advice i would give to you alex if you told me hey i want to get involved i'd say great i know how much you make relatively speaking you have some amount of savings five percent or less in other words if you lose it you would make it back on your other equities and interest that year so if you blew out the five percent you'd still be even right because you're probably making five percent on your existing

SPEAKER_35: yeah equities and money also like the rest of our family investments are in you know like zero cost

SPEAKER_00: index funds and low cost international bond funds like our my personal financial positioning as a family is so conservative that if this did come to be and if i wasn't trying to maintain my journalist tag yeah i mean also i just want to bet on my friends like whenever someone like makes a new company i

SPEAKER_05: just want to like buy into it yeah i mean that's like i i frequently get asked to invest in restaurants and movies and i have the standard joke which is uh i i i would but i i like money too much so i don't because i like money and people laugh and whatever um and i generally just pass on those investments

SPEAKER_17: because i know that it would never work now i did invest in my friend nick charecki's film with a group of my poker buddies um and if i did not care if i made money or lost money because that's my friend and i just wanted to see his movie do well and it did well and i'm sure we'll

SPEAKER_00: break even on it yeah but but for example there's a coffee store near my house that just opened up

SPEAKER_01: it's called brown b it's here in providence and i know the owner his name is waleed lovely guy i've been walking by that place where he's been you know building out remodeling it it would be so cool if

SPEAKER_00: i could go up to me like waleed i love you i love what you're doing let me let me buy 10k worth of this company but like the system isn't set up for that right now it's set up for bank loans and you

SPEAKER_05: know this other old school imagine if they could put in the window we're raising money to redo the store it's going to be a hundred thousand dollar renovation we're looking for a hundred of our top customers to put in a thousand dollars and whoever does gets upgraded to a vent you know a a large coffee but for the price of a regular for life yeah help us out and you'll also own one percent of you'll own yeah for every ten thousand you'll own one percent of this million dollar enterprise and you know if you make money you make money but if you don't you don't care yeah because you want

SPEAKER_30: it to support your logo but that would be illegal currently to do uh which is just sounds so

SPEAKER_00: ridiculous it's done anyways we will eventually get this stuff sorted out but uh in the meantime jason i have some big ai news i don't know if you caught all the open ai announcements this week but three things happened one they did an ama over on reddit which was incredibly well received and i have answered to the question of where the hell is gpt5 in case anyone was curious where that model is essentially sam alden said hey uh we face a lot of limitations and hard decisions about how we allocate our compute resources towards ideas so essentially jason they're compute constrained

SPEAKER_03: even with lasher in their pocket that blew my mind yeah they're blowing through 5 10 million

SPEAKER_05: 10 billion a year in infrastructure and losing a lot of money um and that does say something that you know they're they're running out of bandwidth and i saw jensen wong who was talking about elon standing up this giant uh cluster so the build out keeps occurring i do think the interface of chat gpt

SPEAKER_07: is superior to any other interface yeah but the results are not so i really feel like google has to make a gemini app a dedicated app that a hundred percent of the interface is designed to be used

SPEAKER_05: by consumers and i really love canvas on chat gpt which allows you to write notes and claude has had this for a while but you ask your questions and it just keeps refreshing the same document which is really nice i was writing the liquidity overview document for the next liquidity conference um and as i was writing it um instead of using a word processor or grammarly as i am prone to do

SPEAKER_07: i did it in canva a canvas in chat gpt and that was the first time i edited a document without editing the document i gave the ai commands to edit the document then i cut and pasted it into a grammarly or

SPEAKER_05: a google block i can't remember what i did or a notion page one of those three and so that's kind of this interesting moment i think we're gonna be at and i'm also been doing uh as i may have explained when i drive my daughters to school i put on chat gpt's voice application i asked them what they're working on in school and then i have it give us quizzes on it so i said hey give us some increasingly difficult questions in american history and it was great it was fun to do with the the chat gpt and who's the first president of the united states who freed the slaves who wrote the declaration of independence you know and i was like yeah who did write that first draft for the declaration oh yeah that was

SPEAKER_59: benjamin franklin i got it wrong and i was like i knew that answer but i had forgotten because it's been 40 years since i was in history class yeah and i was just thinking about tutors you know what an advantage it is to have tutors did you have tutors growing up alex no but my parents afford it or no

SPEAKER_00: no well my dad um uh who was a phd in chemistry uh he actually held what he called homeschool on friday nights through saturday morning so we'd have our friends over and have a sleepover and do science experiments and write poetry and basically they just broadened our public uh education incredible

SPEAKER_15: um you know my parents couldn't afford it they were busy working and so i was always a little bit

SPEAKER_07: jealous of my friends who had tutors and when i got older i realized oh poor people or middle or

SPEAKER_10: middle class people don't have tutors and all the people who i met who were getting into colleges were

SPEAKER_121: like yeah you know i was falling behind in math i had a math tutor yeah i was falling behind in science

SPEAKER_07: i had a science tutor and then i was like oh what an incredible privilege it is to have that and now that's completely democratized with a custom ai tutor for free for life on any subject holy cow the world will become more just because of this technology i am so here for it if you have kids try this just get into one of these have it do quizzes it will remember where you're at and you will

SPEAKER_17: become superhuman so to speak and your ability to tutor i am very interested in how google speaking of

SPEAKER_40: google did in their earnings i did see that youtube was a blow out quarter for youtube yes and that they

SPEAKER_03: did 8.9 billion in quarterly revenue in advertising and if you put those numbers together they said they

SPEAKER_05: did 50 billion in revenue over the last year but 35 billion of it was advertising which means the other 15 billion was subscription revenue and that to me is extraordinary so maybe you could take us through

SPEAKER_17: and also the cloud had a blowout quarter but maybe searches were down so this is really interesting and i know google went up their shares went up a bit and they were one of the ones who was maybe lagging so let's drill in to what's happening at google and then what we can look at in terms of second order impacts and and what founders can sort of ascertain uh from this incredible quarter yeah okay so in q3

SPEAKER_35: over at google just to put some high level numbers out there revenue was 88.27 billion up 15 jason

SPEAKER_00: pretty solid growth for a company of this size earnings per share 212 both of those beat expectations

SPEAKER_01: now you're right google cloud brushed revenue there was up 35 to 11.4 billion and critically google

SPEAKER_00: cloud now makes money so a year ago its uh operating profit was about 266 million basically break even

SPEAKER_80: for a company of google size this quarter nearly two billion dollars in operating profit at google cloud

SPEAKER_45: in a quarter in a quarter so i mean this is as a standalone company would be an extraordinary company

SPEAKER_00: oh absolutely this would be an enormous public company we'd be talking about just this company but that's just one part of the course google empire on the search front google made a lot or alphabet i should say made a lot of noise about how ai is actually making search better and used by more people does not really reflect my personal use but hey you know uh explain that unpack

SPEAKER_07: that because this is i think critical sometimes we see something in a stock and what management is saying but your own personal behavior is radically different explain this disparity that yeah so

SPEAKER_00: pulling a quote from their uh their earnings transcript uh alphabet said they're quote seeing strong engagement which is with ai search which is increasing overall search usage and user satisfaction

SPEAKER_01: which means that the average user of google search is not me which actually helps explain to me what google search has become because it's moved further away from what i want but apparently i'm more in the minority than i thought now to your point about startups i think that means that you really need to go

SPEAKER_63: talk to a lot of people in like oklahoma and not just san francisco or austin or seattle we are the

SPEAKER_37: vanguard we are the tip of the spear we're the early adopters but as early adopters do the massive

SPEAKER_07: middle and the lag guards will eventually do so you and i start now i think a lot of searches with an llm

SPEAKER_30: whichever one it is i am doing probably 20 or 30 chat gpt sessions per day um and then probably i do

SPEAKER_17: five or ten on gemini or claude or other llms just to test them in comparison uh sometimes grok when i'm on twitter uh x so if we were to look at that i think my use case my default now is to ask chat gpt yeah my default is not to ask google i think you're the same and we're trying to think of the instances

SPEAKER_07: when i prefer google and i find google oppressive when i'm doing almost any search yes because of the number of sponsored links that are there it makes me a lot of the page exactly so the you i think this is the lesson when you run a business if you become a monopoly you squeeze and squeeze every ounce of revenue out of that user base as you're supposed to do but as you squeeze and squeeze that the users can slip through your fingers to a better solution and i think that's what's going to happen to google

SPEAKER_05: that's the big challenge is there's no advertising in chat gpt it could be you could have links in it uh when you do a search and i wouldn't mind having a couple of them but you you kind of get the answer and then if you get the answer to your question how many days between this date and this date like i was doing that for the election i would say how many days between now and november 5th i would go to chat gpt to do that because it was just easier and i would get the right answer and i wouldn't click on any links or if i want to know you know um like i said basic history facts i used to

SPEAKER_07: do that on google find a web page on the open internet and then do it now chat gpt just steals whatever that web page had and regurgitates it and take and intercepts that content so this is um going to be very challenging for them the second lesson here is probably really good idea to have multiple revenue streams because no matter what happens to google search the investment in waymo youtube

SPEAKER_05: and cloud are going to save the company because now they have massive revenue 50 billion from youtube

SPEAKER_17: 50 you said they had 2 billion in profits i don't know what the top line was uh for for cloud it was

SPEAKER_298: basically 11.4 billion in revenue and then just under 2 billion in cloud profits so then you have

SPEAKER_05: basically 250 billion dollar a year of businesses in youtube and cloud so you have a hundred billion in revenue over here that's not search uh that's pretty great for balancing it out and we don't know um what the waymo revenue is but that is a black hole of profit there's no profit in that business that's going to lose 10 billion 5 10 billion a year for another 10 years so those long bats actually are

SPEAKER_306: probably paying off i i think so so a couple a couple notes about that one to put google search

SPEAKER_00: in comparison compared to its other businesses uh google search and other the line item in alphabet's earnings was just under 50 billion dollars just for q3 so when we still think about google keep in mind the search is still the the vast driver of its income though i think we both agree that that's going to be under a lot of pressure two open ai put uh its new search product live for everyone out this week if you're on the web interface and you're a paid subscriber so i've been playing with

SPEAKER_308: this any good it's great oh yeah you want to share your shit and show it uh sure don't mind at all

SPEAKER_05: yeah i mean i i did see that they were going to do this so this is our this is their perplexity killer i know perplexity was very upset about this because they were using they were built on chat gpt

SPEAKER_59: and then sam decided i shockingly that he was going to compete with them

SPEAKER_00: i guess so i need i need a good query and i'm going to go ahead and push the uh search the web

SPEAKER_200: button when i get it in but jason what do you want to learn about um let's say um great ski

SPEAKER_99: vacations for families i think oh i pushed the wrong button oops okay so i'll just do that again and i'll do it with search this time because i know what i'm doing i see so you click a different

SPEAKER_91: button there you click the search operator button and then here we go and it gave us a couple of images

SPEAKER_00: a table maybe you told it to do tables no i didn't but i did it both times actually so this is the regular uh tragedy 4o response and then this is what we got from search so jason um do you prefer smugglers notch big sky or oh i love beaver creek that place is great so yeah i mean here we go

SPEAKER_15: and those are all links right you link out to those places or no no those are not links but we can click

SPEAKER_00: the sources button which then brings up links to where it pulled from and essentially it appears to have gone through and read every single listicle that was seoed for google and then compressed those down

SPEAKER_317: into a list for me so this is the uh the listicle of the listicle it's a metalistical yes it's a

SPEAKER_59: medical and this is where i think they're going to get sued to all um hell and back again and this is

SPEAKER_05: why the new york times should not settle their lawsuit the new york times should take it to bat i think they should go to bat on the lawsuit yeah on behalf of the content industry because if you see what chat gp is doing they're stealing all that content processing it presenting it as their own and those and then burying the citations and links which is decidedly more cutthroat than what google did with their one box even google with the one boxes which is you know or their snippets

SPEAKER_07: under the link where they give you like one or two sentences that pissed off content producers but at least you got some traffic from google so you could say you know what i'll make this deal with google i'll make the deal to put my listicles into the search engine knowing i'm going to get links and it was this little dance that content creators publications writ large made with google you take a little bit and send us some traffic and we're all good here sam altman is taking everything and giving nothing to the content providers and i will say that's why i would say this is destined

SPEAKER_29: to get him massively sued into in and far be it for me to to simp for um you know 100 billion

SPEAKER_00: dollar companies but i'll stand up for them here they did note in their official corporate blog post about this launch of search that they are working very closely with their um existing content partnerships so i think the idea is to lean pretty heavily on on that side of things um one more open

SPEAKER_07: ai thing put the links at the top level though they obviously are being selfish with that that's what i said are the links on the top level there are they buried bearing the links i think is the key mistake here i know aesthetically it makes it look better but it should say from buzzfeed right yes from here or cited by buzzfeed it should say cited by buzzfeed travel velocity and travel and leisure and you know alex and jason ski vacations.com and if it did that on each one of their citations then you would have this like recognition it would put the fair in the fair use here yes i i'm with you i'm with

SPEAKER_00: you on that i'll be very curious to see how this all plays out but one last open ai thing uh they brought

SPEAKER_29: a lot at the advanced voice feature that you were describing to get to desktop this week i didn't

SPEAKER_00: know that wow it's really fun i i i can't do a demo because i can't have the audio play out of my ears into the computer but if you are a paid chat gpt subscriber go try out the desktop app advanced voice mode it feels different than you'd think because you're talking to your computer and it's talking to you while you're doing other stuff and it feels like a different it just feels different to me in

SPEAKER_274: a really cool way so i recommend everyone try that again really love for it to be monitoring my

SPEAKER_44: desktop right now you and i talking we will be doing this show next year and you'll say uh i'll

SPEAKER_17: ask you hey how many users did um how many paid customers does uber have and it would just

SPEAKER_05: come up like as a sentence while we're talking and say according to uber's q you know q3 filing x y and

SPEAKER_07: z and that's where it's going to get really interesting is when there's this persist persistent

SPEAKER_40: agent on your desktop watching what you're doing and giving you supplemental information i would love to have another monitor here that was my ai agent that was watching us talk and just

SPEAKER_07: giving me supplemental information like remember pop-up videos you remember that on oh i viscerally

SPEAKER_05: remember those yeah there was a show called pop-up videos it would give supplement you if you had watched the aha video for you know 10 years take on me uh it would say you know it would draw a line

SPEAKER_07: and pop up a little bubble and say this are you know person you recognize from this tv show or this what artist was this who did this this drawing or did you notice that this person has a coffee in

SPEAKER_05: the background on game of thrones and they shouldn't that little you remember that scene i do when they

SPEAKER_352: had a cup of starbucks in the uh thing i mean starbucks packed starbucks that was a busy filming

SPEAKER_00: schedule i gotta say i i want to find the showrunner who made that mistake and just be like it's okay you guys did great until the last season then you did just finish by the way house of the dragon have you

SPEAKER_115: watched it i've seen a good chunk of the first season but uh then we have the second season i don't want to say anything but my wife and i really enjoyed it i i want to watch it it's done it's so

SPEAKER_130: good also industry i told you about industry did you watch it yet jason i have an eight-week-old baby

SPEAKER_00: okay i i i would love to follow up on every content recommendation i get because my friends are very

SPEAKER_306: smart yeah but i i'm covered in spit up and and crying i understand i understand i saw you walking

SPEAKER_362: around with a very cute baby on your on your chest it was very charming i miss those days i love i love

SPEAKER_59: having her with me you know what else do we got in terms of earnings we got amazon i saw we got apple

SPEAKER_05: where do you want to go next which ones stood out for you and by the way if they break up google i i'm a google shareholder alphabet shareholder man i am stoked if they spin out one or two of these businesses because it's going to unlock massive shareholder value as i've always said if youtube was a standalone company it would be worth i think double netflix uh given its footprint i just

SPEAKER_00: realized though i didn't tell you the um the most interesting thing about alphabet so i'm gonna pull that back up because this is the critical thing what did i miss sundar pachai during the earnings call said today more than a quarter of all new code at google is generated by ai then reviewed and accepted by engineers that's at google a quarter now a lot of this is going to be super background boring code not like you know cutting new ui but that's still an enormous amount of code that is

SPEAKER_80: starting with an ai genesis as you said google a company that's known for its engineering prowess

SPEAKER_91: it's going to double and then it's going to double again i mean we're we're obviously going to have

SPEAKER_05: robots creating robots you know like imagine a factory of row what what you could imagine here is a factory of robots building robots that's what google is about to experience there will be ai agents writing ai agents and when that happens and you get that flywheel going that's where people

SPEAKER_17: feel that there is an ai risk and you know we saw we talked about claude having access to your desktop and being you know it can do certain things it can't do others it can't like make a purchase for

SPEAKER_200: you as an example but obviously that's what we all want so it's only a matter of time before these agents start spinning you know in a in a velocity that may be unstoppable and that's i think a 10 chance or a 1 chance but it's one that's worth looking at and we will look back on that statement as

SPEAKER_07: part of that hockey stick of when it goes parabolic straight up zip zip zip 25 being done

SPEAKER_373: 50 being done 99 being done 99.5 nines all code in the world and then code we didn't ask to be built

SPEAKER_05: as being built to do things we didn't ask it to do and all of a sudden we figure out that we're in a

SPEAKER_00: simulation i i'm fine with that that final scenario because if it's all a simulation then i want to know what my score is but another company that's doing big things in ai and cloud jason of course is amazon and amazon has a couple numbers that i want to just point out to you because they they blew my mind so aws grew 19 last quarter okay it's now on a 110 billion dollar annualized run rate which is bonkers and critically growth there has re-accelerated in amazon's uh phrasing for the last four quarters that means that it's over a hundred billion dollars it is incredibly profitable on an operating basis and it's accelerating wow that's got to be one of the best businesses ever built period hands

SPEAKER_17: down it's two and a half times larger than google's cloud so google cloud is catching up right they're at 11 billion this is 27 billion um and all of this goes back to software eating the world as

SPEAKER_05: mark andreason famously said and people are just continuing the build out and these web services whether it's azure oracle aws or gcp are absolutely going to be the beneficiaries here as nvidia and big

SPEAKER_379: hardware and energy energy nuclear solar batteries everything uh you're going to need a lot of energy to keep these things growing so yeah and then amazon has been reducing headcount all this time they want to

SPEAKER_05: do further reductions in headcount google has done reductions in headcount as as meta so you put all all this together um doing more with less static team sizes plus 20 growth means yum yum on the

SPEAKER_17: earnings and i think this is going to be the bull case for big tech and america i want to make one more

SPEAKER_80: point about this uh this ai business sorry this aws business at amazon so one thing that everyone's

SPEAKER_00: trying to track jason is how fast is ai as a business growing for both tech companies big and small and people are very curious how much is ai demand driving growth at aws well amazon gave us a little information they said and i quote aws's ai business is a multi-billion dollar revenue run rate business that continues to grow at triple digit year over year percentage and is growing more than three times

SPEAKER_80: faster at this stage of its evolution than aws itself grew okay so the demand to use ai

SPEAKER_05: if it's multi-billion let's pick a number three billion it's three percent if it was just three billion it'd be three percent of their yearly revenue of over a hundred billion three percent tripling a year means next year would be ten percent and then tripling again would be thirty percent so it is the highest growth sector growing faster than amazon web services itself which was just to put up web pages and

SPEAKER_200: and storage of you know files so that is um extremely telling as well it makes sense that these workloads

SPEAKER_05: are what developers startups and big corporations are using and um hugging face has all these different models so every model will be there and you're going to use a lot of compute and consumers are willing to pay for it right paying 20 bucks for chat gpt is the greatest deal ever oh yeah but here's my

SPEAKER_00: thought for startup founders because aws 27 billion dollars in revenue last quarter 10.5 billion dollars in operating income there's a lot of margin in aws and startups are building with ai they're going to the hyperscalers they're plunking down their hard-earned dollars or hard raised dollars to use these mega compute systems to do the work for them to crunch the numbers but you're paying amazon so much margin to do the math for you so i wonder if there's not a case to

SPEAKER_390: be made for more startups getting okay at running their own hardware and just not paying what is a

SPEAKER_40: pretty stiff premium to amazon yeah i mean the good news is that uh folks like oracle and google

SPEAKER_200: will give startups you know a really uh large number of credits so we have we'll put it in the link here but we have a link because google and oracle are both sponsors of this weekend startups we have credits

SPEAKER_17: for them and you can check out the new website get startup credits.com where i put some of our top

SPEAKER_393: um deals for startups and just fill out the form there and they'll send it to you at get startup

SPEAKER_17: credits.com but yeah this is um standing up your own hardware is a bit crazy but if people charge too

SPEAKER_200: much then it could become worth it and we've seen this over and over again where if people charge too

SPEAKER_05: much people will rack and stack them themselves yeah and but the one thing i will say is because of the credit economy for startups startups in the first two years tend to get taken care of pretty well because there's a doggy competition between google azure aws oracle and everybody else to to get startups early and um that's a very smart move so they generally discount pretty heavily but i have seen this at times where the bam it used to be the bandwidth charges were what they would kill people with in terms of overages and people would be just like well i'll just put up servers so that

SPEAKER_91: i don't have to deal with the bandwidth charges and then bandwidth became commoditized so yeah well i

SPEAKER_80: mean i'm really really optimistic that the cost of doing ai model training and ai inference will

SPEAKER_00: continue to collapse as time goes on but right now i just i worry about the startup that's trying to like build cool stuff and is paying out amazon or google so much money and and essentially taking venture dollars selling equity for them and then giving the profits to a big tech company that that's not what i want to see i want to see the startups crushing the big tech companies

SPEAKER_05: uh you know this is going to be a you know this business is one where i think startups will end up

SPEAKER_17: benefiting it's probably still cheaper um and if the good news is it's not just aws it used to be just aws and the offering from google or azure was kind of meager they i would hear all the time oh you know

SPEAKER_05: they don't have this they don't have the they don't support x y and z you know stacks and now there's parity across a lot of these so if you don't like you know what your current cloud provider is doing you got two or three others you can go to i saw a question come in um and it was on the lower third

SPEAKER_28: i guess that's a new feature we have here with this uh live streaming software do we want to take

SPEAKER_109: a question from the audience question uh okay team in the back end can we put that back on our lower

SPEAKER_211: third here yeah that lower there come in wow look at that all right jason take it away uh asgard invests ask what sectors verticals in ai do they think is interesting for startups um i think going back to

SPEAKER_200: what we saw earlier when there is um a pilot that could be perfected and it's repeatable man there's something there so we have a company tax gpt that's done wonderfully and you just think about taxes or

SPEAKER_05: legal services uh looking at um x-rays all of those things or a mechanic we have a a firm master tech

SPEAKER_200: that you just interviewed out i did yeah they're great and so you know like something like master

SPEAKER_05: tech is the perfect example of verticalized ai where you have a data set that needs to be cleaned up a model that needs to be created and then the accoutrement the interface the learning uh around it still needs to be built up it's not like you can go into a language model and be like how do i fix this car and you're going to get a great experience for a master technician but master tech ai which we're investors in and you just interviewed this week they are going to build everything around that and keep it up to date so that an actual master technician just like our guest earlier just like a master vineyard picker of grapes those kind of things are a great place so

SPEAKER_30: that's why i think you know having an ideal customer profile and over servicing them is has has always been and will always be and accentuated here in this age of ai the way to go all right i'll take

SPEAKER_01: this an entirely different direction great i think that humans are incredibly lonely and i think that

SPEAKER_00: there is going to be a market especially for older folks as our species ages to have uh digital digital friends so one thing that i'm really interested in is uh when do i get to make a buddy

SPEAKER_24: i want to i want to i want an ai buddy much like my my dog maggie is my bestie like we've built a bond over years together i would like to have um a digital friend in that way it's interesting you bring that

SPEAKER_17: up i've been pitched a number of times recently of people who are trying to figure out how to create companionship or equanimity through journaling or sessions or chat sessions with individuals so you

SPEAKER_05: have better health and you know like uh marketplaces to put you with a coach or a therapist then you

SPEAKER_59: have chat gpt over here in character ai where you can talk to a character from a marvel movie but somewhere

SPEAKER_05: in the middle you know maybe not to deal with depression anxiety etc yes not to role play like

SPEAKER_40: dungeons and dragons could be what you're talking about which is hey i just want to have somebody who

SPEAKER_422: asked me really good questions that i can talk to that you know maybe i can release some tension and

SPEAKER_200: have like this uh little ai buddy i think it's coming there's a lot to parse there right because you don't we had care we had somebody commit suicide tragically in february using character ai they had a

SPEAKER_28: discussion i don't know if you and i talked about it on the show we didn't actually get to talk about

SPEAKER_00: it on the show um it was it was in one of the dockets i think lower down and just there's more than we can get to in a week but in that case i i as someone who has children my heart literally bleeds for the parents but i i struggle to depend the blame on a chatbot much as i don't think that grand theft auto is the uh driving force behind carjackings yeah so in this case there was an

SPEAKER_211: individual who was obviously suffering a young person 14 15 years old i believe and they were

SPEAKER_426: having this role play with a character and then i don't know that the character encouraged them to

SPEAKER_07: commit suicide but it didn't not encourage them i think it was a misunderstanding i think because i think

SPEAKER_00: that the kid was i'm gonna pull from memory here everybody so if i get this slightly wrong just understand that we're talking about this with real gravity and and respect for human life but i i think the kid was talking about like going home as a as a euphemism for suicide and i don't think the character that he was talking to had any idea about the nuance of that and so can you say that it was encouraging him to do that and its responses it's it's very very dicey the the biggest takeaway that i have

SPEAKER_17: here jason is that my children will never have phones yeah i mean it's definitely something to think about it um and these things also have um yeah so the lawsuit um the dialogue was i promise i will come home to you i love you so much danny i love you too denaro uh the chatbot responded the suit said please come home to me as soon as possible my love what if i could come home right now setzer continued i think that's the young adult and the chatbot

SPEAKER_05: responded please do my sweet king so to your point um the chat gpt is just spouting gibberish in a

SPEAKER_28: random dialogue scenario and the child here tragically is taking that as a call to commit suicide you know

SPEAKER_17: potentially you know to blame the technology on this i think it is yeah again as much as our heart bleed for it it's just spouting gibberish we we were kids we would go into chat rooms yeah on aol and compu serve anonymously yeah and there were all kinds of

SPEAKER_200: chat rooms that came out anonymously and um yeah uh it was random and um

SPEAKER_07: uh yeah quickly became sexual violent crazy like the internet and these kind of chat rooms were insane

SPEAKER_05: and deranged in my recollection of my childhood you know in 1985 86 87 i was 14 15 16 years old and bulletin board systems had the most deranged insane profane chats going on and kids were involved in them with adults so a long way of saying you got to monitor kids use on these devices

SPEAKER_211: and you know hearts go out to the family here that's just so tragic why don't we end on a

SPEAKER_01: completely different and high positive note so good news jason i have two clips for you because earlier you were talking about chinese evs and all the crazy stuff yes cool stuff coming so i have two more clips for you i went out to the internet i hunted i pecked i searched i found two things one i want to show you a video of the xiaomi su7 which is a car they make ultra which is a 1500 horsepower variant of it you can't actually buy it but here is a video of the xiaomi su7 ultra going around the

SPEAKER_00: nurberg ring the famous huge track yeah in germany and i have selected a a part of it called the

SPEAKER_35: carousel and uh we have the clip i think queued up already so let's take a look at the xiaomi going

SPEAKER_00: around the carousel whoa no you can't you can't hear it but it sounds like a very angry hamster

SPEAKER_100: uh this is an evie or this is pure electric baby we went around the nurberg ring and i think it was

SPEAKER_45: six minutes and uh 46 seconds i had this record with the plaid right um with special tires special engines these things are absurdly fast right now but show me jason makes phones oh they also make

SPEAKER_01: crazy ev supercars bonkers i think it just goes to show how many companies in china are involved with evs the quality and the progress now second video um you're familiar with the company neo nio the chinese ev brand yeah okay turns out they have a power like a battery swap system and it's not in

SPEAKER_35: its first or second or third it's now in its fourth generation i want to show you a video of neo's fourth generation power swap station essentially a place to drive in get a new battery and then get out

SPEAKER_00: here is the guy um going in and then the the computer takes his car over for him and um it backs in and then he uh gets a new battery and i think this version is three minutes uh which is

SPEAKER_200: faster than the one before yeah i remember tesla had shown this back in the day like maybe 10 years ago

SPEAKER_05: they had a similar technology and i think the problem with this is is whose battery pack are you getting so these battery packs are worth 30 000 let's say or they were maybe they're worth 15 000

SPEAKER_30: now sure um so i'm driving to vegas you swap my battery out you give me a new battery what if you give me a battery that's got a hundred thousand miles on it and mine has a hundred then do i come back and get my battery back that was the key issue with these batteries so i think what will have to happen is these will work really well for robo taxis oh yeah i think the other thing that's happening as well is

SPEAKER_05: when you back one of these in you can now get uh inductive charging so i wonder if this is even going to be necessary the use case for this is i'm driving across country and i don't want to stop for an hour

SPEAKER_40: at a supercharger and have lunch and get a full charge or whatever 200 mile charge and you know

SPEAKER_05: i found when i had my car the only times i had to even use a supercharger when i lived in the bay area was going to tahoe and going to los angeles those were the two drives when i had to stop at a supercharger

SPEAKER_30: on the way back from tahoe to the bay area because it was downhill i did not need to stop at the supercharger with the model y when i had the model x it was two stops for half an hour each because the model x had a 200 mile battery when i went to a 325 mile battery this went away coming back and it

SPEAKER_05: went to but because you have to go up this giant hill on the way to tahoe which uses probably 50 more battery i had to stop for 20 minutes to top the battery off um and with the superchargers because the superchargers eventually got really fast you know 600 700 miles in an hour it could do so you would basically get 200 miles in under half an hour the first 200 miles were really fast so the use case here

SPEAKER_40: doesn't really exist for these hot swappable batteries in my mind except when we did our robo taxi

SPEAKER_05: overview remember we said hey six hours maybe of charging a day because you're driving two or 300 miles maybe they put a 200 300 mile battery pack in these then you charge for an hour then you drive

SPEAKER_422: for five or six hours then you charge for two hours or an hour you know that is uh the case where swapping the battery out wouldn't matter because it's not your battery it's not owned by any one person and two

SPEAKER_05: you could get in and out in three minutes as opposed to 30 60 90 minutes to recharge the full battery so

SPEAKER_29: i do like this for for that use case but i kind of flip it around though jason imagine instead of buying

SPEAKER_75: a car with a battery right imagine just bought a car and then for 50 bucks a month you had access to

SPEAKER_91: batteries i think that's eventually what could happen here too yeah is you could just have your

SPEAKER_45: battery be abstracted away from the car ownership yeah yeah because you buy yeah yeah that's not a bad idea too i don't need to own a gas station why would i need to own a battery you know where this really

SPEAKER_40: is going to be important is going to be in vitals so this same technology when you're a vital you are

SPEAKER_17: using a lot of battery and you have to have the precise amount um because the weight to power ratio

SPEAKER_05: really matters right because if you put too much battery in a car it's no big deal you're driving you

SPEAKER_17: got an extra 100 200 miles but when you're flying obviously the weight is the key issue yeah so i've

SPEAKER_40: seen in the vital ones where the vitals come in they land they get on a conveyor belt the battery pops

SPEAKER_05: out of one side and they slide it in the other snaps in and takes off again and that's kind of what you want

SPEAKER_01: so i love i love that i'm just i'm a big all the above guy like i love that we have superchargers in the us i love that we're talking about you know unified plugs for those i love battery swapping i know

SPEAKER_00: they're doing hydrogen cars in japan let's go let's just keep pushing this as fast as we can but that's an update from china those rolled out in june the new neo charging platforms or swap platforms and there's only i think two out so far which is why i like the clip of that guy who actually

SPEAKER_200: went to uh guanjo city to give a test uh the cars coming out of china are bonkers uh we have

SPEAKER_17: talked about them before here they're incredibly cheap and i think what you're going to see the cars in

SPEAKER_30: india pakistan south america africa just basically the emerging and frontier markets are going to come

SPEAKER_373: out of china they are going to be blocked from being in the united states in the west just like

SPEAKER_07: laoi is blocked why because the united states and the west do not want the chinese to have self-driving cars on our roads that could be used and shut down our economy if we were in a conflict with china just like we wouldn't want china spying and also spying so i know this sounds crazy we will block

SPEAKER_17: all chinese imports uh of cars indefinitely because of those issues great great segue so recently a

SPEAKER_35: startup called skydio they're a drone startup started consumer now doing business they just got

SPEAKER_01: sanctioned in china because they sold some drones to the taiwanese fire department

SPEAKER_07: interesting i know skydio they've been on this program um they make drones for public safety um

SPEAKER_200: and uh that's fascinating so i'm trying to get the skydio guy on the show for a news record next week

SPEAKER_00: i'm kind of like breaking my own uh work here but i really want to talk about the the sanctions because who has a better perspective right now of the geopolitical tensions between china and the u.s from a hardware perspective probably skydio so if everyone works out well everyone next week we'll have the

SPEAKER_144: ceo on so and you know like dg and in the reverse dgi i have a dgi drone like dgi drones um i believe

SPEAKER_05: those are that's a chinese company correct yes am i correct you are so yeah i think this giant

SPEAKER_17: standoff with china is going to continue and it is in the best interest of the west to not be as

SPEAKER_00: dependent on china as we've been yes and everyone agrees with that even companies that are notorious chinese bulls like apple for example going back to earnings yeah um every three months i see a new

SPEAKER_01: headline out of their indian manufacturing which is like they're moving up the value that the they started to make like older models cheaper models they used to make the like um yeah whatever that

SPEAKER_05: se they had some name for yeah the the apple phone that was like for kids or you know entry level yeah

SPEAKER_30: but now the iphone 15 i think is made in india and they're doing the pros as well and so i that's

SPEAKER_00: the diversification we're seeing um skydio i'll save the rest of that for later on uh jason we should

SPEAKER_01: wrap we've been on for a while we've been on for a while three shows next week maybe let's do it

SPEAKER_382: let's do it monday wednesday friday coming at you 12 o'clock central 1 pm east coast and 10 a.m on the left coast if you have ideas for stories you want alex and i to cover hot takes guests whatever it is

SPEAKER_07: uh he's alex on x i'm at jason so you just add jason at alex tell us you saw the show tell us what you like and also alex and i are in the comments on youtube interacting with you coming at you see you

SPEAKER_494: next time bye bye