SPEAKER_00: I love innovation and venture. I love when people innovate on the five partners with the $300, $400 million fund, making two investments a year, sitting on 12 boards. God bless Benchmark.

SPEAKER_02: Bill Gurley's my guy. Fred Wilson's my guy. They're great at what they do. They're the goats.

SPEAKER_07: But then sometimes the game changes and you get a Steph Curry coming in and it's like, you know what?

SPEAKER_00: I'm going to stand four feet behind the three-pointer and I'm going to shoot 20 or 30 three-pointers a game and I'm going to hit 10 of them, 12 of them. So stop me. And I might, you know, Clay Thompson might hit 10 in a quarter. All of a sudden the game's changed. It's like, well, wait a second.

SPEAKER_11: This is a different style of basketball.

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SPEAKER_15: All right, everybody. Welcome back to This Week in Startups.

SPEAKER_16: Everybody loved producer Nick reading the news last week. He wasn't on camera, but we had a bunch of breaking news and didn't have time to get a newsreader in here. So I said, hey, producer Nick, read the news. And you know what? After a couple of years of doing This Week in Startups, I feel like you got a handle on the news and writing show notes for three years, four years?

SPEAKER_22: Show notes, yes. Presenting the show notes, no. I have no idea what I'm doing. So everybody strap in and come along for the ride. This is my parents' basement.

SPEAKER_25: I have moved out of Hoboken.

SPEAKER_26: My house is not built yet. So I am actually coming to you live from my parents' basement. This is true.

SPEAKER_28: Literally a millennial trope.

SPEAKER_02: I'm working from my mom's basement. All right, so here we go. We have a couple of stories on tap today.

SPEAKER_04: I know the Microsoft Activision case, we had that breaking news this morning that Lina Khan has lost again. Yes. And what else is on the docket? Just to give people a little preview.

SPEAKER_32: Yeah, so I think first up, I just want to get your thoughts on a story that I think

SPEAKER_25: is a really big deal and it seems like nobody is talking about, which is using GPU access as leverage to invest in companies, which is happening a lot right now, it seems like, or in two cases, two very big cases, it's happening. And then after that, we're going to talk about, yeah, like you said, Microsoft. So there's two things with Microsoft. Great news. They basically beat the FTC case. They beat the case for the Activision deal. And then bad news. They're facing an EU antitrust probe over how it bundles teams.

SPEAKER_36: Ah, bundling. Yeah, we'll get into that. Okay. So let's start with this first one.

SPEAKER_02: I think this is a fascinating, um, uh, insight that you, you found writing the notes for the all in, you know, weekly docket and for the weekly AI round table that we do at Sonny

SPEAKER_37: and Vinny. So cue this up here. I'm interested in your observation.

SPEAKER_39: Yeah.

SPEAKER_12: So for anyone listening to this, that didn't listen to yesterday's, yesterday's episode,

SPEAKER_25: Jason and Sonny covered, um, inflection AI who raised $1.3 billion at a $4 billion valuation and a 22,000 GPU supercomputer or cluster that they're putting together. But I think that there's like a little bit more meat on the bone of the story. So obviously in tech right now, across startups, there's a massive GPU shortage.

SPEAKER_12: There's a ton of startups looking to integrate AI applications and do it themselves, but they don't have access to these GPUs either in the cloud or on-prem, right? Cause you can't buy these NVIDIA GPUs.

SPEAKER_25: You can rent them out for really, really expensive, but that's basically what's going on, right?

SPEAKER_40: Is it, was, is it, they, would you say that was accurate?

SPEAKER_37: Yeah. I mean, if you are going to try to do your own language model, you want to do stuff at scale, you need to have, yeah, thousands of these apparently.

SPEAKER_11: And that means a hundred million to a $250 million ticket to get started. Uh, if you want to do your own language model, which that seems like a lot of startups want to do.

SPEAKER_39: So as you talked about yesterday with Sony, this round was led by Microsoft, NVIDIA, Reed

SPEAKER_25: Hoffman, who is also a co-founder, Bill Gates and Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google.

SPEAKER_12: Um, and you guys talked about the round tripping potential on yesterday's show. And I'm wondering if this kind of falls into that basket or it's something a little bit different. So NVIDIA seemingly as part of this investment, but this hasn't been confirmed anywhere, at least that I've read is going to help Inflection install more than 18,000 NVIDIA H100 GPUs. The H100 is basically the top of the line GPU right now. It's the most expensive one. It's the one everybody wants.

SPEAKER_25: Inflection already has 3,500 of them currently in use. So this would give them 22,000, as we said, the company said, this is going to be the largest AI specific GPU cluster in the world. Um, which is pretty crazy. Some other large clusters. Meta has a 16,000 cluster. Microsoft said they're adding tens of thousands of them soon.

SPEAKER_12: Um, but it seems like NVIDIA might be using the GPU shortage and its position in the market as leverage to take ownership positions in startups.

SPEAKER_48: Okay. So is there an example of this?

SPEAKER_39: Yeah. Inflection.

SPEAKER_48: Oh, okay. So in flat, I thought there was a second example, uh, so after, but yeah.

SPEAKER_11: Okay, good. Yeah. So, I mean, it's, there is a phrase in Silicon Valley, no conflict, no interest. And so if there is a chance to press your advantage as an investor, you know, or as a business, you're going to take it, right?

SPEAKER_07: So Apple, as one example, has a lot of iPhones and those iPhones have a search box and, you

SPEAKER_16: know, they need to, uh, give people search results when you're using Safari, uh, they

SPEAKER_37: sold that to Google, uh, and they make something like $20 billion a year just off of that franchise.

SPEAKER_16: And so that's, but one example of, you know, two people who might be considered, um, conflicted, right? Android, um, competes with iOS and, you know, tons of different products, uh, compete between

SPEAKER_11: those two. But they found some common ground here. Google wants to maintain their monopolist position in search.

SPEAKER_16: Apple wants to make a ton of money. So Apple didn't launch a search engine or do a deal with duck, duck, go or bang. And then of course you have here, Microsoft saying, Hey, uh, we would like to back inflection, even though they're put $10 billion into open AI. So that's conflicted.

SPEAKER_04: So there's always conflicts and if you can find leverage and GPUs could be leverage, uh, or access to them. Now we don't know here if inflection is waiting in line with everybody else or if they got to

SPEAKER_11: jump the line, but all's fair in love and war, uh, all's fair in startups and investing, no conflict, no interest. So people have all kinds of conflicts. The partners at YC. We've talked about this on the show many times. Partners at YC get first look. And the insiders get first look at the startups there because they come and they mentor them early and they've got their own network. The, the, the top 10% of startups at YC are swept off the table. If you go to demo day, you're going to see like the, uh, the 80% or 90% that weren't taken by the insiders, uh, for funding. So you just have to always keep that in mind. People are angle shooting, as we say in poker, and this is an angle shot. Yeah, sure. We'll get you to the front of the list. We don't know that that's happening, but you can assume that they're going to have preferred treatment because Nvidia has got a stake in this company.

SPEAKER_39: Yeah. Big stake too. Right. So $1.3 billion investment. They're part of the lead, probably a couple hundred million dollars. You would imagine.

SPEAKER_37: Yeah. Yeah. And then the round tripping, all of this is massively conflicted. You have many, uh, conflicts going on here at once.

SPEAKER_11: And, uh, that makes for very interesting business.

SPEAKER_59: Do you think it's enough for an anti-competitive case against them?

SPEAKER_16: Um, you know, the, the government gets involved in antitrust and some dovetail with the Lena Khan story coming up typically in a very narrow set of circumstances, uh, consumer harm being

SPEAKER_11: the number one vector that people look at the number one lens or framing they look at. So is there some consumer harm here? No, uh, now our shareholders getting harm.

SPEAKER_07: Um, or is there some allegiance between open AI and inflection that Microsoft should have, you

SPEAKER_16: know, be loyal to open AI and not inflection? Uh, you know, okay, maybe, um, that would be something Sam and Greg could bring up with Satya

SPEAKER_11: and Adele and say, Hey, why are you doing this? These guys are competing with us. That's not cool. Um, but you know, Masayoshi-san was investing in Uber competitors around the world. And, uh, I think he famous, did he, I think he's pretty famously invested in DoorDash and was like, that's not competitive with Uber Eats. So, you know, no conflict, no interest.

SPEAKER_16: And so it's just massively conflicted, but it's not a legal issue. It's an issue between partners. And then for Nvidia, they're an arms dealer. Uh, so when you're an arms dealer, like the United States is, we give our Patriot missiles to any number of people. Those people could get in conflicts with each other and we could be replenishing their

SPEAKER_11: missiles and be on both sides of a conflict potentially. Um, when you're an arms dealer, you're an arms dealer. You just want to sell weapons, right?

SPEAKER_67: So this is an idea as an arms dealer.

SPEAKER_11: Okay. Listen, you got an idea for a tech startup. Great. You think you want to change the world. You think you got this. This is the one. Well, you've got that same problem that we all do. You don't have an engineer or you don't have enough engineers to make this happen. And you need product velocity. You need to go fast. And how are you going to go fast?

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SPEAKER_25: Yeah. NVIDIA's, um, has made a couple of investments in recent AI startups. Actually, they invested in runway, which we had the founder on the podcast, generative AI editing tools, cohere whose founder is going to come on the podcast. They're basically building like a B2B LLM, um, and a couple more AI startups.

SPEAKER_12: One of them is called core weave. Have you heard of this company? No. Okay. So educate me and the audience. Core weave is interesting. They are the company that's actually helping inflection deploy these 18,000 GPUs. They started as an Ethereum mining company back in 2017. So this is, this is like a genius pivot. They put together this big cluster of GPUs to mine. Ethereum when crypto is going like this. And then at some point over the past few years, when it started to go like this, they pivoted from crypto mining to basically being a GPU cloud provider. So if you go on your, if you go on their website, you can look at, they have all the NVIDIA GPUs ranked like this and the top ones are the most expensive and you can rent them on an hourly basis. It's like such a great business. Yeah.

SPEAKER_42: If you think about what. Crypto did really well. It was built infrastructure and build these federated or, you know, networks of computers, peer to peer architecture, just like Napster did previously, or scour Travis's first company,

SPEAKER_37: uh, before red swoosh, et cetera.

SPEAKER_04: So CD ends and peer to peer Kazaa Skype was peer to peer. All that stuff is kind of in the same wheelhouse, which is how do you take a job and put it out

SPEAKER_11: across a large network and, and that's what GPUs do or, uh, Tesla's, uh, super computer that they've built is doing. So this is, uh, a really great pivot, obviously.

SPEAKER_37: And we're seeing that across the board. I think if you are a crypto person and you don't consider pivoting right now, uh, to AI, and

SPEAKER_00: you've got like a really great tech team, kind of crazy because consumers and businesses were open to hearing about crypto solutions, right? Everybody was like, okay, yeah, tell me more, tell me more about NFTs. Tell me more about blockchain. Tell me more about permissionless, you know, currencies, tokens, and people heard it and

SPEAKER_11: were like too complicated, not enough value for the end user, whether it's a business or consumer. Now you juxtapose that with AI.

SPEAKER_04: I don't know if you saw the link I shared with the sales team using chat GPT for, and, uh, Bruce

SPEAKER_11: O'Brien was, you know, giving them some advice on how to look up potential sponsors. I won't say what the thread was, but producer Brian, uh, on the media side of our business was telling the sales team, Hey, look here. I made you a thread of how to get all the sponsors of other events. So when you sell sponsorships for the all in summit, uh, here are some people who sponsored other events and it put it in a table for them really nice and clean.

SPEAKER_02: So I think that is why, you know, people are falling in love with these language models and tools so quickly is that they just make you faster at your job.

SPEAKER_11: And it takes out the, I find it takes out the most arduous, repetitive, boring parts of

SPEAKER_04: your job sifting through Google links, sifting through Google links, formatting stuff into a table, tagging a blog post, whatever it is, you know, doing some basic research and, and it's getting better and better.

SPEAKER_37: So if it gets 30% better a year, which I think is a pretty low benchmark, man, as I've said, hiring freeze across the board, we're 19 people in our company. And I feel like we're doing the work of we're doing more work than when we were 23 or 24 people.

SPEAKER_86: Yes.

SPEAKER_37: And this is going to be what rebounds the entire economy, not to go on a total

SPEAKER_11: tangent, but if people are concerned about earnings, as I said, on the all in podcast many times, and I got a little bit of a pushback on this, I kept saying like,

SPEAKER_04: well, you know, if your earnings go, if your revenue goes down, if you cut your spend, you can actually keep your earnings the same or better.

SPEAKER_90: That's math, baby.

SPEAKER_16: It's just basic math. And, you know, I think Chamath was like, yeah, that's not easy to do. And I was like, it's not easy to do, but you can do it. And then all of a sudden, Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, Google layoffs happen. And you're like, wow, they took the medicine fast.

SPEAKER_11: And I think that was all CFOs and founders just saying, you know what, I don't want my stock price to crash. I want to have good earnings.

SPEAKER_92: And so who cares if we cut 10 or 20,000 people, if we have 80 or 100,000, it doesn't make any difference.

SPEAKER_25: And also in, in Google and Meta's case, those 10, 20, whatever thousand people they cut were probably recently hired because they just, they doubled their headcount in, or maybe not recently hired, but you know, they were last two years.

SPEAKER_95: Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: Yeah. Over COVID basically. And so they probably hadn't even onboarded them and gotten them, you know, hitting their

SPEAKER_37: stride yet.

SPEAKER_98: So it was like, if you have never been into an office, did you even work for the company?

SPEAKER_101: That is a, that is a pretty, uh, interesting angle. So it's a joke. Don't yell at me.

SPEAKER_16: I mean, if you want to get people riled up, you could say remote work is BS. Yeah.

SPEAKER_102: You're really into that right now. You're all over that space.

SPEAKER_11: I, I just have come to the conclusion that 20% of people are more productive at home.

SPEAKER_104: 50% of people are less productive and then 30% are probably as productive, maybe 25% are as productive.

SPEAKER_105: I think generally speaking, you, does that track with your experience? Yes.

SPEAKER_104: If you had to put people into buckets, maybe it'd be a third, a third, and a third, but.

SPEAKER_25: I, I can't ever imagine how a company of hundreds or more people runs fully remote.

SPEAKER_12: Yeah. It's just, I, I'm sure that there are some that do it and do it well, but I, I can never, I think for smaller teams, it can work, especially if you have. Like seasoned people that know what they're doing, that know what they have to do, but for training and, and onboarding and things like that, it is really hard.

SPEAKER_04: I, and I'm just, I'm worried about the psychological impact this is having on people, especially young people who don't get to build relationships. And then if you are home all day and then you don't go out at night and you stay home at night, which is pretty easy to do with, you know, ordering a door dash and, you know, watching whatever's on Netflix or HBO max, you know, like people get weird. Um, and so I think it might, I think the big issue is it was too onerous, the American system of two weeks vacation a year and 10 holidays and whatever, a couple of sick days. I think Europe has something figured out where like a longer break over the summer, four weeks, six weeks. And that would make it a little more tenable to be in the office, you know, four days a week, five days a week. If you could look forward to having August off, right.

SPEAKER_113: Or, you know, taking two weeks off twice a year, instead of two weeks off once a year.

SPEAKER_22: Yeah.

SPEAKER_25: I find myself missing the unproductive parts about being in an office. You know, I miss like the BS, like the, the nonsense, like the people always, but when

SPEAKER_98: we went fully remote, it was like, oh, there's no more water cooler talk. Like, this is great and it is for productivity, but I, I also kind of miss it. Like I used to sit right next to Matt, our sales guy. I love Matt.

SPEAKER_115: And you know, Matt's like a dog. Yeah.

SPEAKER_98: He's a complete dog. And I miss just making fun of him and seeing him every day and laughing with him. You know what I mean? And watching him come on his bike. Like those are the things that I miss, but they're, they're, it's all the unproductive stuff.

SPEAKER_109: That's why I did the standups every day and told everybody to be on camera and to take a shower and be dressed and have a background.

SPEAKER_04: And I said, listen, we're gonna have a sales standup, a programs team stand up and the media side stand up and just get on a, just wake up and get on a call and

SPEAKER_02: at least say hi to everybody. And, you know, uh, have like, uh, some rhythm to your day.

SPEAKER_07: Uh, and the, the turning it off is the hardest thing. I, I personally am having a hard time with that. That's why I'm going back to an office. I chose that for myself. Um, because I can't turn it off. You know, like I'm, I got my kids all day with me and then at night I'm still working, but then I'm partially with the kids. I liked it much better.

SPEAKER_04: When I got in a car, I drove to the office, I had 20 minutes of, you know, of listening to a pod or doing a phone call. Boom. I'm at the office. I just grind for eight hours, nine hours, and then I come home and that 20

SPEAKER_07: minute decompressed time on the way home.

SPEAKER_11: And I don't feel bad about sitting with the kids, turning the phone off and you know, yeah, maybe at 10 o'clock at night after I spent three or four hours with them, I can do more. But I, I liked that rhythm better. Now I'm kind of over it now with the exception of ski season, which I do not

SPEAKER_123: want to give up.

SPEAKER_125: Yeah. And every Goldman Sachs banker is like, yeah, we gotta be in the office until it's time for Montauk. Yeah. Then we don't.

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SPEAKER_98: Oh, anyway. So sorry. Oh, let me reel this back in. So I brought up core weave because they also kind of fall into this category.

SPEAKER_12: So Nvidia invested in core weaves $220 million series B at a $2.1 billion valuation a couple of months ago. Yeah. But what's really interesting is that in that round, Nvidia's co-investors were Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman.

SPEAKER_98: Ah, yes. Pioneer Labs. Pioneer Labs, Daniel Gross, Nat Friedman.

SPEAKER_139: He's been on the pod and I love Daniel's model for Pioneer Labs.

SPEAKER_140: Yeah. He's amazing. And Nat Friedman, formerly the GitHub CEO.

SPEAKER_12: Yeah. So Daniel and Nat invest together, but I don't think they have a formal fund, but they do, they co-invest very often. Okay. And these two were actually in the news. Well, they actually weren't really in the news. You saw this, but nobody really talked about it. They are now offering a 2,500 GPU cluster to their portfolio startups.

SPEAKER_143: I thought this was a joke at first. It's not.

SPEAKER_39: It's called Andromeda Cluster. Yeah.

SPEAKER_140: Yeah. So, you know, at market prices. So baller. It's crazy, but like.

SPEAKER_12: So baller. Do you think that this had anything to do with their CoreWeave deal? Like, do you think that they got some kind of discount on CoreWeave GPUs and then they used it as leverage?

SPEAKER_98: You know, you know, you see what like the, the link I'm trying to make here.

SPEAKER_140: Wait, CoreWeave is somehow associated with Pioneer Labs. No, Nat and Daniel invested in their $220 million Series B alongside NVIDIA.

SPEAKER_153: Again, back to no conflict, no interest. Here's how, what I learned, uh, how things worked in the Valley.

SPEAKER_07: Everybody's kind of competing and collaborating and like, if a deal comes up and I can get you

SPEAKER_04: into the Uber deal or you can get me into the, you know, uh, DoorDash round or DoorDash is competing with Uber, but you know, cloud kitchen, you know, everything becomes like very murky and overlaps and Y Combinator, perfect example, Sequoia and their reach, perfect example, you know,

SPEAKER_11: uh, Sequoia is an LP and our funds, you know, Ruloff and I are great friends for over a decade now. Saks and Ruloff work together at PayPal. Right? So you see these like little, you know, gangs form, right? Yes. And then now with all in, you have like the all in gang and then, okay, this, there's like three or four other podcasts that have come up with little clusters of, you know, investors and entrepreneurs, uh, I, I think, um, uh, my friend, Dave Morin, uh, from path.com who I've always thought very highly of, he started like an all in competitor, not competitor, but let's call it inspired by all in and it's pretty good.

SPEAKER_36: You know, it's, it's not great, but it's not bad. It's just like, okay, they have their opinion now over here and then pirate wire guys did

SPEAKER_07: theirs and moment of Zen did theirs and three cartoon avatars did theirs. These are all like little balkanized tribal things and like Andreessen Horowitz doesn't like all in, right? Like he doesn't like me. He doesn't like Chamath. I wonder why. Critical. Well, I mean, whatever we, we've said, we, we said critical things, right? But, but I mean, he's good friends with Saks and Friedberg, right? So you have this like very weird tension that can occur. Okay. Is he blocking Chamath and myself at this moment in time or not? Right. And so what I've learned is like enemies accumulate over time and you don't want to miss opportunities. So, you know, to this extent you can squash beef and, you know, New York's got New York. Jersey's got Jersey. You know, maybe somebody's got upstate New York, South Jersey, Philly, South Jersey, Philly, you know, Rhode Island, Providence, a little different than Boston, you know, but maybe they overlap. These families can kind of like do business together, but they could also get into spats, right? Yeah. And that's what happens in tech. And then sometimes you got somebody who hits like a home run like this, like having their

SPEAKER_11: own cluster. I just have to say, what a baller move.

SPEAKER_12: Oh my, if Nat and Daniel spun this core weave deal and they had a little carve out for a couple extra GPUs on the side. Yeah.

SPEAKER_166: And now they're using that as a way to get startups to basically pitch them for investment. Yeah. I mean, bravo. Yeah.

SPEAKER_167: It's like ball walk empire. Like they're getting like some ships coming in from like with bourbon on them, but maybe they make it to New York.

SPEAKER_166: Maybe they don't. That's my theory. So I don't know if that's the truth, but oh my God. Yeah. Like that's awesome.

SPEAKER_07: Again, no conflict, no interest, you know, five families, different, you know, factions

SPEAKER_04: all trying to, you know, just get in the next deal. You just want to get in the next deal. And it's just leverage, right?

SPEAKER_42: It's leverage. Right. Yeah. So if you were, if you have those 2,500 GPUs they have sitting there and Daniel

SPEAKER_16: Gross is competing with Y Combinator, right? Um, and he's trying to preempt Y Combinator by getting to startups before they do.

SPEAKER_11: I don't know why Combinator got 2,500 GPUs laying around. So if you're an AI entrepreneur, why would you go to YC when you could go to, you know,

SPEAKER_104: if you need access and now everybody doesn't need access to them. It's probably one in 25 startups need access to GPUs directly like that.

SPEAKER_175: Mm-hmm .

SPEAKER_104: The other 24 can just use, you know, uh, hit an API and use Chatshub4's API or use Google's API or whatever.

SPEAKER_02: So it'll be abstracted that way as well. But I thought it was, um, uh, one of the more baller and innovate. I love innovation and venture.

SPEAKER_00: I love when people innovate on the five partners with the 300, $400 million fund, making two investments a year, sitting on 12 boards.

SPEAKER_02: God bless benchmark. Little girl is my guy. Fred Wilson's my guy, you know, they're great at what they do.

SPEAKER_07: They're the goats, but then, you know, sometimes the game changes and you get like a step Curry coming in and it's like, you know what, I'm going to stand four feet behind the three pointer and, uh, I'm going to shoot, you know, 20 or 30 three pointers a game.

SPEAKER_00: And I'm going to hit 10 of them, 12 of them. So stop me. And I might, and you know, Clay Thompson might hit 10 in a, in a quarter. All of a sudden the game's changed. It's like, well, wait a second. This is a different style of basketball. Shaquille O'Neal, Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon, you know, they changed the game for a long time. You had to have somebody to stop those three players specifically, or else you were just not getting to the finals.

SPEAKER_37: And Jordan had to figure out how do I beat, uh, how do I get through Patrick Ewing? How do I get through Alonzo Mourning? How do I get through Duncan Robinson? You know, like these were, um, or Tim Duncan, no, Duncan Robinson.

SPEAKER_177: Definitely not Duncan Robinson.

SPEAKER_37: Well, whatever.

SPEAKER_02: I mean, there, there were, you know, there were concerns of how do you, how do you get through some dominant?

SPEAKER_125: No, Duncan Robinson is a, you know, he's the white guy on the heat now.

SPEAKER_98: Not Tim Duncan. Not Tim Duncan. Or David, you could find Tim Duncan and David Robinson into Duncan Robinson.

SPEAKER_180: Oh, sorry. I'm getting older. Like these things all because like one super team.

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SPEAKER_187: Do you want to move on to Microsoft?

SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think this is really fascinating. I think I'm going to go in reverse order.

SPEAKER_11: Queue up the bundling issue because we've talked about this on All In many times. And I saw this and I'm sure it will come up on this week's All In with the return of the world's greatest moderator. Let's talk about that.

SPEAKER_12: Okay, so we'll do the bad news first then. Okay. So Microsoft is facing an EU antitrust probe over how it bundles its Teams product for free into the greater Microsoft Office suite. The problem stems from a complaint that Slack issued in 2020 to the EU over Microsoft bundling

SPEAKER_25: its Teams product, as I just said. Teams was initially added as a free product to Office 365 back in 2017. And Brian, if you could pull up this chart, just look at what happened when, I mean, this just shows you the scale of Microsoft's enterprise customers, right? So the purple line on the bottom is Slack's users, which if you zoomed in, you'd be like, oh, that's pretty good growth over time. And then you zoom out and you see what happens when Microsoft starts bundling Teams for free to, you know, not saying that these are Microsoft users, but let's say Citibank, the NBA, like Volkswagen, giant enterprise customers and growth just completely skyrockets.

SPEAKER_193: It's 20x, whatever, Slack has or whatever.

SPEAKER_12: And Chamath has mentioned in the past, obviously being an early Slack investor, I think they led the Series A with Mamoon over there, right?

SPEAKER_196: Yeah, Mamoon, I think, led that deal. Yep. Famously.

SPEAKER_25: He, once Teams did that, they, everybody on the board, he said, kind of saw this coming. And I think Slack actually made out great selling to Salesforce for almost $28 billion when it did, because Teams just came in and basically killed their growth, it looks like.

SPEAKER_51: I mean, we didn't get any numbers after 2020, because that's when Salesforce stopped reporting or Slack stopped reporting and sold to Salesforce. But what do you think about this?

SPEAKER_07: So I think this is what Lena Kahn should be working on, is tactics, because she was put

SPEAKER_04: into the FTC because she was anti-big tech. She was anti, you know, the power of these. And, you know, that was a great way to get the job, I think, because it spoke to the Biden administration. They felt tech was, like, lording over them, too powerful, social networks, Trump getting into office, all this stuff was, like, very present in their minds. And, you know, politicians don't want to have to answer to Zuckerberg, or previously to Jack

SPEAKER_00: at Twitter, or YouTube, you know, all of these things were very concerning to them. And the problem is, Lena Kahn's premise, which sounds really interesting, is, I want to preserve

SPEAKER_04: competition in the future.

SPEAKER_16: So we have to get to these monopolies before they become monopolies. We got to stop them.

SPEAKER_11: Now, have you ever seen the movie Minority Report? It's a little before your time. All right, that's your homework assignment, Minority Report. I need you to watch it, because when you do the news read next week, I want to discuss it with you.

SPEAKER_16: There's a concept of a precog. And what precogs do is, they can see into the future, the near future, and they know when somebody's going to commit a crime. And then they send the police out to arrest you before you do the crime.

SPEAKER_68: And this seems like, wow, society is safer and better.

SPEAKER_11: I'm not going to kill this person. I'm not going to rob this house. And it goes against all of our ideas about justice, right? And so she can't predict the future, but she wants to believe she can.

SPEAKER_202: And this resonated with people who were anti-big tech, which I would say, you know, there's

SPEAKER_04: Republicans who are anti-big tech, and they're, you know, but the problem is the FTC executes laws. They don't create them. They're the umpire, not the league. You know, the league has to create the rules. If you want to have hand checking or, you know, whatever rules, uh, you know, zone defense, whatever, you got to have that in committee. You set the rules, all the teams get to adjust, and they play the game on the field.

SPEAKER_00: She's got to call fouls and balls and strikes, not decide, you know, uh, how many runs are scored or how many bases there are.

SPEAKER_04: The cases that she's picked, she's just going after people because they're big tech. This going after Facebook over this tiny little, you know, VR app when VR is not.

SPEAKER_12: Within Unlimited, yep.

SPEAKER_04: VR is not a thing.

SPEAKER_25: And it was a very silly, the argument was that, um, Within Unlimited made a, a workout game that was sort of like Beat Saber, right? You're, if you, if you can't see me, but I'm, if you're listening, but I'm swiping at. Beat Saber, yeah, you're a Jedi.

SPEAKER_60: Congratulations. Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_25: Um, and that, you know, basically saying meta having this app and Beat Saber would give them an unfair advantage in the VR space. In the future.

SPEAKER_04: And like, there is no VR space.

SPEAKER_25: Yeah.

SPEAKER_04: Nobody we know played Beat Saber this week. Zero.

SPEAKER_00: I mean, if you played Beat Saber this week, you're a loser, period. Unless you're under the age of 12, right? You're, you're just a complete, utter loser.

SPEAKER_213: So all you 14 year old Beat Saber players, you guys are nerds.

SPEAKER_215: Playing baseball, go, go outside on your bicycle, you know, play some basketball. Do, you know, I don't know, go to a dance, do something.

SPEAKER_04: They lost that one, by the way. And they lost, of course, they're going to just keep losing these because they're being vindictive and it's a stupid strategy. There's a much easier strategy. Now, if you go through American antitrust law, price fixing is obvious. If you're Microsoft, if you're Google and you're Apple, you can't say, Hey, let's

SPEAKER_16: set the price of our phones at $900 this year, 950 next year, and 1050 the year after, we all agree on price fixing. So you can't do that. And people have done that. You also can't do market allocation. Like, you know, on the Sopranos where like, okay, we get gambling in this town. You get gambling in this town. Here's the street. You can go on the other side of the street. You can't do market, you know, allocation kind of situations and divvy up a market. That's collusion, right? It's anti-competitive. You can't be a monopoly and you can't, uh, do bid rigging. You can't do these kinds of tactics.

SPEAKER_04: Um, bundling and predatory pricing are very interesting ones.

SPEAKER_68: Predatory pricing and bundling is what Microsoft's doing here. What does teams cost? What does teams cost?

SPEAKER_223: Zero. Zero costs the, the cost of the office suite.

SPEAKER_26: It's, it's, it's, it's an ad bundled.

SPEAKER_202: Yeah.

SPEAKER_26: It's bundled.

SPEAKER_202: And so there's a very simple solution for her here is to look at instances like that, where

SPEAKER_04: people are, um, doing this kind of, uh, market allocation. You could argue what Apple does with their app store is like they've allocated that only they can sell in this geo location, i.e., iOS, and just say, listen, you, you can't do that. You have a monopoly on these phones. You you're in a duopoly.

SPEAKER_07: So in the case of a duopoly where there's two players who own 90% of the market, we want you to have more interoperability and we want more open platforms. So there should be other app stores on iOS.

SPEAKER_68: Now you can just saber rattle and say, listen, I'm Lena Kahn, I'm the FTC, we're preparing a case against you, Apple. You have six months to allow Amazon to have a digital store, Microsoft to have a digital store and the Google Play store to exist on Apple and they have to do the same. And you can't make iMessage closed, there should be interoperability and they'll say like, well, we can fight that you can fight it, but this is what we're asking since you have a monopolistic position, we're asking you to be more interoperable member in the early days of iOS, they wouldn't let you have like a VLC, a video player.

SPEAKER_16: They wouldn't let you have the dolphin browser or Chrome browser this in the early days, they wouldn't let you use a third party browser, they wouldn't let you use a third party media player, they jobs really wanted to own those.

SPEAKER_02: And so they would block you installing that and then Microsoft, of course, got in trouble for bundling where they put and that was the massive Microsoft case, that massive case in the 90s where they put the Internet Explorer, the edge browser to try to kill Netscape.

SPEAKER_04: Netscape. And so if you make it free, used to buy Netscape. Shout out Mark Andreessen. Come on the pod anytime. They used to use to buy Netscape for 50 bucks a year, you would go buy it and then they would like Netscape Navigator 4.0 would come out 5.0 come out, you give him 50 bucks 99 bucks, you would go to Comp USA. And you would buy package offer, bring it home, put a CD in and install the new browser.

SPEAKER_139: And they were like, Yeah, it's in the it's in the operating system now. So that's a much simpler execution, I think. And it's actually better for consumers. Consumers do not there's no consumer harm. If Microsoft buys that, you know, Activision.

SPEAKER_131: Or, you know, Microsoft releases teams there, but there is harm when they do it for free, or if they said Activision is only going to have their games on Xbox for the first two years, and then it goes to PlayStation or PC.

SPEAKER_00: And they already conceded that they wouldn't do that. Correct. So I think we can pivot to the next story.

SPEAKER_25: They did. Yeah. Um, actually, this story has an complete master stroke that I just found out this morning by Satya Nadella, another master stroke by Satya Nadella. He's a killer. I mean, wait till I tee this up for you, you're gonna lose your mind. Alright, so alright, so Tuesday morning, a federal judge denied the FTC's attempt to delay Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard. Um, which is, which can happen as soon as this month now. So just a quick timeline on the acquisition. It was announced first in January 2022 announced they were Microsoft announced they were going to acquire Activision Blizzard for 70 billion. This would have been Microsoft's largest acquisition ever. And it would also be the largest gaming acquisition ever. Um, December 2022, almost a year later, the FTC issues a formal complaint announcing its intent to try and block the deal.

SPEAKER_12: And one of the main reasons for the complaint, one of their main arguments was that the probability of Microsoft making Activision properties like Call of Duty or World of Warcraft Xbox exclusives would hurt competition and would hurt consumers. So, the UK and the EU both followed the FTC in reviewing this deal. In April 2023, the UK actually formally blocked the deal, which is wild. In May 2023, the EU approved the deal, so they went the opposite direction. Yeah. And then last month, the FTC sued Microsoft asking a federal court to postpone the deal closing by issuing a restraining order. So fast forward to July 11th, which is today, Tuesday, Microsoft wins, uh, the FTC loses. Microsoft can now close the deal as soon as this month.

SPEAKER_25: And basically the judge ruled that the FTC failed to show that this was going to result in harm. Um, and to top it off. Correct decision.

SPEAKER_39: Yeah. Just an hour before we went live today, Reuters reported that the UK is now open to looking at the deal again and changing its decision.

SPEAKER_00: Yeah. Perfect. I mean, it is an obvious decision. And this is where you just put conditions. And if that's what should be happening here is conversations with the major players and saying, hey, we, we could take action here. We can slow this down.

SPEAKER_07: Um, we can give you a speeding ticket. We might win. We might have a 20% chance of winning. We might have a 50% chance of winning. Why don't we just both agree on what's in the best interest of consumers here? If call of duty is available to, I think activision's biggest title is call of duty. If everybody gets call of duty at the same time, we're good. We're good. And if the, if the games are the same across all platforms, we're good. And if it's interoperable, so PlayStation and Xbox, you know, and PC gamers can all play each other. Great. Um, or you have to hit four of the five major platforms in the first year, you can come up with some very basic, you know, uh, things that preserve consumer choice.

SPEAKER_11: consumer choice and you're fine. This is why Lena Khan, sorry to say it, Lena. I know that you're not pleased with my assessment of your tenure.

SPEAKER_16: I, I think you've done a bad job, um, of really picking your fights. The, the job of the FTC is to pick your battles and just being anti-tech is not, is not picking your battles.

SPEAKER_12: Look at that was kind of her strategy too, right? She wanted to go spray and pray. She was like, we shouldn't just pick battles that we think we're going to win. We should go for a bunch of different things.

SPEAKER_04: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, uh, pro people who are, you know, bringing cases, uh, you know, I've heard Preet Bharara say this a bunch of times. Like if you're going to bring a case, you want to be sure that you have a really good chance of winning, but you know, it doesn't have to be a hundred percent.

SPEAKER_00: You like to be 90% or a hundred percent, but you know, sometimes you go with something that's 70 or 80%. I just think she came out and it's just like saying no to everything.

SPEAKER_256: Yeah. Doesn't make sense. Does this undermine the credibility of the FTC you think?

SPEAKER_07: I think it feels very partisan. Uh, and it feels vindictive and it doesn't feel like it has anything to do with consumers.

SPEAKER_00: So if it, I think she wants to have a bigger role than what the FTC is supposed to do. And so I think her ambition as a young person who's brilliant, clearly she's a brilliant young person. I think she's in her thirties. Yes.

SPEAKER_11: I mean, the youngest ever. So sometimes brilliant young people want to, you know, make a name for themselves. Uh, but this is not the way to do it. Uh, if you wanted that, you should be a Senator and, you know, make laws and change the laws. That would be a better use of her time, you know? Uh, so yeah, she's 34, I think at this point. So she was 32, maybe when she got in, she's two years into this.

SPEAKER_261: Yeah. Uh, in June, 2021, she was sworn in, I believe.

SPEAKER_37: Anyway, she's not going to make it to a second term. I don't think, I think if somebody else needs to, or she needs to change her tactics immediately.

SPEAKER_04: And I'm not talking my book here, you know, I, for me as an early stage investor, just so you know, it's better for me that big companies, uh, that companies don't get acquired in some cases and they go bigger.

SPEAKER_68: You know, if Uber had sold at five or $10 billion to Amazon, that would be terrible for me. It wouldn't be worth 80 or 90 billion, which is, I wouldn't have gotten the last, you know, whatever, 20 X out of it, 15 X.

SPEAKER_11: Uh, so for venture capitalists and investors and technology companies, you kind of want them to go longer, stay independent longer. Cause that's how true value is created. So, but you also want there to be an exit ramp for companies.

SPEAKER_00: So if they don't like this beat saber company kind of stuff, like for those companies, if they're not going to be platforms and they're not going to be huge. Yeah.

SPEAKER_68: It's great to have an exit somewhere where they can have a nice safe landing. They also had done that thing with the Giphy keyboard or something. I can't remember that case, but the FTC.

SPEAKER_270: I think that was a UK deal. Is that UK? Yeah. They forced him to sell it or something. Yeah.

SPEAKER_11: I didn't think that predated her, but this is another perfect example of like, are we just trying to be vindictive cause Zuckerberg, you know, didn't defend democracy against Trump.

SPEAKER_04: And that's the problem we talk about on all in all the time is trust in experts, trust in institutions. And you nailed it. Like, do you feel like Lena Khan is playing referee or umpire or she Tim Donahy, you know, like, and she's shaving.

SPEAKER_110: Wearing the, right. She's wearing the Jersey of the other team underneath the referee shirt.

SPEAKER_00: Exactly. And if kind of feels like she's doing Biden's bidding, who, who gave her the job, but, you know, do you want to hear about Satya's a Jedi mind trick?

SPEAKER_25: Yeah. Do it. Okay. So obviously Microsoft owns Xbox. Xbox is one of three major console makers, right? There's Xbox there. Sony makes PlayStation and Nintendo makes the switch. Yeah. Activision makes call of duty, which is one of the most popular games in the world war zone, which is like an offshoot call of duty game is a popular free to play game. It's kind of like the call of duty version of. Fortnite. Got it. And it has 52.5 million monthly active players via active player.io with daily active players ranging between one and 3 million. That's crazy. Yeah, it's really crazy. Um, I, and I know this, I kind of feel like this is accurate because my friends love playing war zone.

SPEAKER_56: Hmm. Like grown men, like 27, 28 year old grown men are like on it every night. Like they're in middle school.

SPEAKER_11: Those are kind of teenagers in today's world, but sure.

SPEAKER_25: Basically. Yeah. Um, so one of the FTC's big arguments again, as we mentioned before, was that Microsoft would take call of duty, make it an Xbox exclusive, which would suck for consumers and they would just cut them off.

SPEAKER_12: But as part of the lawsuit, both Xbox head, Phil Spencer and Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella, both said under oath that they would not make call of duty and Xbox exclusive under oath. Yeah. And the judge's decision also quoted Phil Spencer, who noted that Nintendo and PlayStation actually have way more console exclusive games than Xbox does in the first place.

SPEAKER_98: Yeah. So he's basically saying we don't even do that, but here, here is the brilliant move by Satya Nadella. This is so awesome.

SPEAKER_12: So the main call of duty games have never been available on Nintendo. And in February of this year, Microsoft announced that if the acquisition was approved, they would bring the main call of duty games to Nintendo by signing a 10 year deal with them.

SPEAKER_140: Perfect. So not, so I'm going to go above and I'm going to go above and beyond. Not only will call of duty not go exclusive. It's going to be available available for like millions and millions and millions of more people.

SPEAKER_276: Yes. Tens of millions. Yes. So basically the opposite.

David Friedberg: What is the FTC's argument anymore? Like.

SPEAKER_07: The FTC's argument is Microsoft is too big. That's all. Big tech is too big. They have more power than politicians. Same thing with Bitcoin. Why do you think the F and I, and I said this, you know, until I was blue in the face. Like governments are not giving up their control of Fiat currency. Sorry, it's not happening. And you're going to have to play by the SEC rules and you're not replacing Fiat.

SPEAKER_00: And when you said, Hey, we're here to disrupt Fiat. Guess what? The government believed you and you were credible. It was a credible threat that crypto could replace Fiat. That's why it's banned. And, you know, a lot of countries, uh, cause they don't want to give up command and control.

SPEAKER_25: Okay. Anything else on the docket? To hit up Lena Khan's other, um, lawsuit, uh, actions right now. Um, ongoing case against meta over the Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions. She inherited that one from the previous, um, administration. FTC is expected to lose that one. She already lost.

SPEAKER_184: That's dumb. Like it's, you know, if you can't, it's gotta be some statute of limitations here, you know, like really? I mean, that's, that's a crazy one. You can go back and undo the YouTube acquisition. It's not fair to shareholders. It's not fair to the employees. It's not fair to customers. It makes no sense.

SPEAKER_25: They, um, FTC versus Illumina. Um, Illumina is a biotech company and who acquired this company, Grail, who actually you just sent, um, us the link to yesterday to invite the founder on for $7.1 billion in 2021. Um, that was dismissed in court in September, 22. So they technically lost September, 2022. So they technically lost, but in April of this year, they ordered Illumina to divest Grail again, and they intend to appeal and they'll probably win, but that's technically ongoing.

SPEAKER_07: Um, and then just a couple of months ago or last month, the FTC sued Amazon for allegedly misleading consumers about how they cancel their prime memberships. Okay. And the quote for the complaint, Amazon use manipulative, coercive, or deceptive user dark, dark patterns. There it is to trick consumers into this. I like this. I like dark patterns, uh, are now illegal in California. However you sign up for a service, you have to be able to unsubscribe in that service. So when you try to unsubscribe from the wall street journal, they're like, Hey, call us. Mm hmm. And they're like, Hey, call us. And they put your home. Then they try to talk you out of it. No, if you can take my credit card on the web, you can take my unsubscribe. I had this happen with Tonal, which I love my gym got flooded. I tried to pause my Tonal membership and they made me jump through so many hoops and I love Tonal. And I emailed the CEO. He didn't get back to me. And I'm like, why can't I go into the interface and hit pause on my membership? If I'm going to be gone for two months in the summer, I should be able to pause it. Why should I pay a hundred bucks, 50 bucks a month or whatever it is and not use it? It makes, it's not fair.

SPEAKER_68: It's the silliest thing of all time. Well, this is where I think the FTC could do great work. They should make a list of the top 100 dark patterns. And then they should just go down the list and just file, file, file, file, file. That's in consumers' best interest. That's where you point the gun, Lena.

SPEAKER_169: Yeah. I do think it's funny, though, that she's basically going after like one of the most beloved, like Amazon Prime. Everybody has it. Everybody loves it.

SPEAKER_48: I think she's going to go after ice cream next. Right. Haagen-Dazs.

SPEAKER_25: Yeah. It's just too good. Right. It's ridiculous. Too creamy. But we should note, she has had some wins. The FTC recovered $60 million in lost wages for Amazon delivery drivers under Lena Kahn, which is good. And in one of the biggest settlements in FTC history, Epic Games paid a $520 million fine for tricking young gamers into making unintended purchases, which violated COPA, the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act. So she has had a couple of wins.

SPEAKER_07: Yeah, I think she'll have wins when she goes after the actual cases of people breaking the law and going after specifically anti-competitive tactics that are in the law. And if you want to change the laws, you could inform, you know, the other branches of government that this is how you think laws should change and then let elected officials work on that. But it's not her job to change the laws and the rules of the game. It's her job to call balls and strikes, and when she does that, she's going to have great success.

SPEAKER_16: When she tries to pick who wins the game or tries to push the game to six or seven, a six or seven game series or whatever, it's just so obvious that this is just Biden administration, anti-tech, pro-union nonsense, just like they won't invite Elon or whatever to the EV summit when he's shipping, you know, a quarter million cars a quarter and dwarfing everybody.

SPEAKER_110: You wouldn't invite them to allowing other people to charge on the Tesla.

SPEAKER_07: Like, yes, it turns out that in most cases, it's in a business's best interest to not be a monopoly and to have interoperability because things grow and you don't have like this fermenting competitive, um, environment. And Tesla's like, yeah, you want to use our stations? Go ahead now, now Ford and GM, whoever's done these agreements is like, well, now, why would they even build stations?

SPEAKER_304: No reason.

SPEAKER_04: But now if they didn't let them, then they would all get together and build a consortium against Tesla.

SPEAKER_00: So the best thing to do is to just say, yeah, if you want to use them, this is the price. Um, and this is a, we'll charge the same price that they charge Tesla people. They're not giving Tesla people a discount versus the Ford and GM people, which I thought was a masterstroke, right?

SPEAKER_16: All right, everybody. That's a full show for you today. All in summit is basically sold out. I think there's like 25 or 50 VIP tickets left. Sorry, we couldn't accommodate everybody. We will be releasing all the videos. Nick will be adding all of those.

SPEAKER_11: If you want to get one of the remaining VIP tickets, uh, just type in all in summit and buy it now, please. Uh, I don't have extras. I don't have free tickets except for our LPs.

SPEAKER_16: I get, we each get 25 free tickets.

SPEAKER_02: I think my wife's taken a handful of those for family members and the rest are going to LPs and launch fund four. So, um, go ahead and check that out. Uh, do a search for all in summit.

SPEAKER_37: If you want to get those and follow the YouTube channel, youtube.com slash this weekend and subscribe and ring the bell. I'm going to try to do some live streams this summer. All right. We'll see everybody next time. Bye-bye.