SPEAKER_00: taylor swift overrated or icon undeniably talented but the best her music's market domination dramatic lacks diversity in themes shake it off a friedberg i mean it kind of

SPEAKER_03: attempted a joke right this is hot off the presses it was new and fresh wow um it did it in maybe five like a couple of minutes not bad i mean it's pretty great when you think about it

SPEAKER_06: because it did the video the audio and the script is what you're saying yes yes so this is like the whole complete and it didn't do a full episode but if it could do nine seconds it'll be able to

SPEAKER_10: do 90 seconds next year and nine minutes a year after and then 90 minutes a year after that so

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SPEAKER_25: welcome back to this week in startups it's ai tuesdays we record on monday we ship it on tuesday this week in startups.com ai or go to youtube and just type in this week in startups do me a favor subscribe uh put the subscription bell on so you see all of our great shows a couple episodes a week and the episodes that people are going crazy for right now are when i interview a founder and go deep on that or when ai demos are done by my pal sandeep sunny madra who is the gm of grok cloud you can go to console.grok.com console.groq.com yeah it's the fastest and cheapest inference in the world according well to everybody things are going well huh how many total devs you got there now sunny i think as of this

SPEAKER_28: morning 70 000 20 000 apps 20 000 apps with grok on it it's crazy it's a really really special we're

SPEAKER_06: very excited yes is it when you're doing inference does it cost people on average to do a returned query i know it depends is the answer that everybody gives but just generally speaking

SPEAKER_25: when people send a query up and they get a response back it's costing a penny four pennies fraction of a penny for an average input average output fraction so basically let me let me kind of

SPEAKER_30: give you the numbers top down we charge so our most popular model is mixtro which is a eight by seven eight mixture of experts we charge 27 cents input 28 cents output and on average we get about 10 000 tokens of input and we get uh you know small amount of output one tenth of that and so what are people doing is they take huge things and say hey summarize this for me and it's like i said it's 27 cents for a million input token so it's fractions of that so the like i'd say you take a million divide it by 10 000 that's kind of what you're looking at right or sorry 10 000 divided by a million

SPEAKER_38: that's what you're looking at in terms of cost so fractions fractions of a penny okay so when we

SPEAKER_41: talk about the disruption that google might face and the increase in cost are you part of the camp

SPEAKER_06: that we saw last year i think bill gurley was saying uh and brad gerson were saying a bunch of this like you cannot make google search work at scale yet because it would bankrupt the company they

Chamath Palihapitiya: would be me they would be spending more per search than they were making is that still true in 2025

SPEAKER_30: um well it's it's moving down quickly so let me kind of give you a rough sense of where costs are at the best open source model right now is mixtrol um the cost to run that's about 27 cents per million tokens um then if you look at gpt4 it's 10 per million token input and 30 per million token output so it's on the order of you know i'd say 50 times more expensive on the output and then 150 times more expense sorry 50 on the input and 150 times more expensive on the output so we've already seen the prices come down that much with open source and i think that'll be the key smaller more efficient models will be cost effective to do search and um you know we're going to see that today we have a lot

SPEAKER_31: of search examples coming up and it's a really good insight that you're you're kind of queuing up for

SPEAKER_25: us here yeah you know if you look at google um there was somebody who did a really nice analysis semi

SPEAKER_52: analysis let me pull this up here really quick because it's important for our discussion i think to be honest about this and to track it so let me share my screen real quick here and i'll show you

SPEAKER_25: this and this is from february of 2023 this is well over a year old right now so if we look at this revenue per query currently google makes a penny and a half point oh one six one revenue from a query they took all the queries that they estimate that google does and they just divided their total revenue by i guess and they say the cost per query is 0.106 so they're making about oh oh oh five five query queries per second 320 uh annual revenue 162 billion annual cost 107 billion operating income 55 billion

SPEAKER_55: and then if you were to do this for chat gpt they say it would cost per query uh 50 more so even at the

SPEAKER_58: same amount of money it would basically eat up massively google's so from crush google's efficiency so what this is a year old um what are your thoughts yeah so from that time already you know

SPEAKER_30: chet so when that was launched we didn't even have chat gpt4 and uh or gpt4 and so we've already seen gpt3.5 come down 100x in price i sort of in i'm in the camp of um one we should get dylan to rerun that analysis uh with with the latest open source pricing i think that'd be a fun exercise and i fundamentally believe that people are already taking advantage of that cost reduction that's happening and you know if you look at something like perplexity who we're going to talk about today you know they have 50 million active users already that's scale now and they can run that and i think that's pretty impressive from their standpoint and i think fundamentally aligns to what we've seen with cost reductions

SPEAKER_41: happening in the um inference space so it's uh basically happening already thanks to the inference cost

SPEAKER_66: thanks to open source models and chat gpt of course has they keep reducing their costs or what they

SPEAKER_52: charge 90 right seems like they do that every year they cut out 90 of the cost yeah i think someone was

SPEAKER_72: saying there there probably needs to be like a new moore's law because it's moving it's like you know

SPEAKER_30: moore's law was like doubling every 18 months this is like coming down 10x every 12 months you know

SPEAKER_25: it's really crazy yeah yeah uh it's it's just compression it's the the discount for using this hardware just is unbelievable and that means people will be able to do crazier and crazier offerings for free so if you remember the youtube moment before youtube or dropbox storing stuff on the web especially video large files was just an impossibility and big data was an achilles heel for most companies if they started storing a bunch of data they just had

SPEAKER_80: to start deleting their log files remember those discussions hey we gotta delete these log files

SPEAKER_26: because or we got to compress them put them in offside storage we're never going to use them what are

SPEAKER_55: we going to do here with all this data and then of course cloud computing followed its own type of moore's law um although slower and uh we saw the cost of storage go way down so these things are

SPEAKER_86: happening in parallel so somebody will be able to offer things for free that people were previously

SPEAKER_30: paying a lot of money for i completely agree and like look we've seen a lot of this throughout our eras and like sometimes you have to just remind yourself like how cheap storage got right and and you know you can buy like a 10 terabyte drive for like 100 bucks now right it is truly you know um

SPEAKER_41: um insane if you look at the cost of like hard drive storage it is nuts um it has just come down

SPEAKER_52: and down in cost it is nuts uh how much it costs average cost per gigabyte since 2017 let me share this this is backblaze which is like a backup service that is popular with some folks yeah here

SPEAKER_25: is storage backblaze average cost per gigabyte since 2017. and now they buy a lot of drives there and

SPEAKER_55: what you can see is the cost per gigabyte started in 2017. this is 2017 right i'm not going back to 1997

SPEAKER_10: or anything here yeah it was at 32 cents and it's now in it hit 15 cents just in 2022 or so

SPEAKER_86: so it went down more than half in the last five years which is truly astonishing you know if you think

SPEAKER_31: about it yeah wow yeah i would love to get a longer yeah you can't even pray the arc is too big i mean i'm just on amazon looking at a 10 terabyte hard drive it's 200 bucks yeah it's nuts um just getting like

SPEAKER_28: some really uh that's 10 000 gigabytes jacal that's unbelievable 10 terabytes 195 that's just wild that's

SPEAKER_117: 10 000 gigabytes it's nuts you have to divide this number by 10 000 to get the price per gigabyte

SPEAKER_25: what would be interesting to see over time also is like what's the hosted cost with electricity and everything just fully baked like a terabyte in the cloud what does it cost 10 terabytes in the cloud what does it cost the hard drive is now it seems one of the cheapest parts of this the physical hard

SPEAKER_120: drive now is so affordable my understanding is in a lot of these storage facilities when one of these

SPEAKER_100: drives goes bad they remotely turn it off but it's not worth the cost of going into the rack and taking it out so they just power it down and they just leave the dead they do it they leave the carcass in there

SPEAKER_78: and they just do a sweep at some point right at some point they probably when they're going to take the

SPEAKER_55: whole rack out and upgrade it from four terabyte drives to 10 terabyte drives that's when they decommission it and they just don't even worry about it that's what somebody who's in the

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SPEAKER_30: do some demos all right okay so what we're going to start with actually is just a little level set on where things are at because we had a we had a shift in moment last week and so this lmsys um chat bot arena leaderboard is generally uh considered the gold standard for chatbot experiences so you know for your individual use cases different models are emerging but why i wanted to highlight this was last week claude 3 opus by anthropic passed over chat gpt for 11.06 preview and 0.125 preview

SPEAKER_31: this is a big moment and so we've seen it pass and we've seen it kind of come in

SPEAKER_65: up top with this you know the score of 12.55 and so uh if you go to hugging face which is a hosting

SPEAKER_06: company for different open source models they host these uh leaderboards these leaderboards will test llms large language models against certain tests and this is the chatbot arena

SPEAKER_55: um and this is where they test human preferences uh to rank llms and they use the yellow ranking system if you've heard of that before that's the uh one that's used for chess basically you're taking competitors and if you can beat somebody with a higher score than you your square goes up if you lose to somebody who's better than you their score goes up dramatically or if you lose to somebody who you're better than their score goes up dramatically yours goes up minor you know like it's all those

SPEAKER_25: kind of concepts you can look up yellow ratings or rankings and so they test these things and yeah so parity is here that's for sure the thing that's interesting here is the first like 10 are proprietary

SPEAKER_06: models proprietary models are still winning the day and then if you scroll down you start to see some open source ones from alibaba yeah cohere's model yeah if you scroll down even more then all of a sudden you start to see a ton of them uh mistral et cetera llama and other this is a fine tune of

SPEAKER_138: llama too so you're starting to see like different ones but you know it's really interesting what we're

SPEAKER_142: starting to see happen here yeah so what do you take from the fact that the top rankings you know the

SPEAKER_55: 1100s or more are still primarily proprietary models what does that tell you well i kind of see

SPEAKER_30: two or three different things in here um from from my perspective one what this is showing us is these folks are training with data sets that are above and beyond what's available in in pr in the public domain and that's what's making them better now that could be um things that they've licensed it could be um synthetically created data we don't know two what it also means is they may have more humans

SPEAKER_147: involved in the loop to improve the experience with humans so more reinforcement learning with human

SPEAKER_41: feedback right and so people who know claude is uh anthropics model so the company anthropic you keep reading about that amazon just did their second investment launch yeah their second tranche of an investment that is uh the makers of claude and you can try claude.ai what this is saying to be clear is people like uh claude for as a chat bot and it scores head to head with other uh services higher based on this elo ranking yeah that's what we're that's a good that's a good way

SPEAKER_03: to put it and so you know what it also means is that and the last thing i'd say is no one has a defense no one has a lead that's insurmountable yes yeah that's the most important takeaway perhaps here

SPEAKER_156: um okay so let's keep going uh let's do some demos let's do some demos okay so what we're going to do

SPEAKER_30: today is we are going to actually dive into jaco you have like a really i don't know if like because i don't think you even read some of these notes coming in so i'm really blown away by how you have the you have this like knack to pull this off but what we're going to do the segways the segways well it's not even the segways because we were talking about this as we were leading into this so what we're going to do what we're going to talk about today is we're going to do kind of three examples

SPEAKER_147: of let's call it modern answer engines and so the first is u.com are you familiar with this yes

SPEAKER_164: u.com uh is you know making a chat gpt google like competitor yes and so the the query that i've been

SPEAKER_147: using um with these folks is what is the chance uh the warriors making the playoffs right and um what's interesting is you know one we can see here obviously it comes up with an answer and it pulls some some different data sets and i think these folks are doing a really interesting job clean ui they they come up with an answer they provide the references and where they got these things from

SPEAKER_170: right so they do citations the first citation comes from the mercury news are the local paper in

SPEAKER_55: the back area local paper and it says warriors uh it gives the warriors a 48.6 chance of reaching

SPEAKER_10: the playoffs uh most likely through the play-in tournament um yeah and the ringer gives doors a 92 chance of making the play in tournament and a 26 chance of making the playoffs in other words not having to do the play-in tournament being succeeded or above so the question is are these accurate or

SPEAKER_176: where did these come from these could be before the season even started let alone with 10 games left in

SPEAKER_30: the season when we're taping this yeah and and so you know they allow you to kind of click out you

SPEAKER_147: can go see where this came from and this article you can see here is from a couple months ago now right so maybe not the best the best shot right um and and so look i i really like what these folks

SPEAKER_30: are doing but i i have an overall theme here um you know the next is we'll go to perplexity and what one thing i want you to really notice here is that like they're kind of um which i'm going to call

SPEAKER_147: this out on purpose because i think it's interesting what these um answer engines are doing is they're having to use someone's search uh behind the scenes yeah because you know they're

SPEAKER_179: they haven't gone and built their own search index they're not doing the fall of the web so they're

SPEAKER_122: either doing a google search maybe they're using brave has a search api out right now that's really

SPEAKER_25: good exactly open for all is no good that's all that's just done every month or so so that's not a

SPEAKER_33: live search engine yahoo no longer has search monkey uh bing i think has a search api so i think

SPEAKER_129: the only two search api choices now are brave and bang i don't think google has a search api no google

SPEAKER_30: does there's a bunch of companies that are are doing it off the google one as well so that that's what's kind of interesting here and then sort of you know what i wanted to to talk about here is you know

SPEAKER_169: i built this make sure we we um you know we blew it so it is uh what are the chances of the warriors uh

SPEAKER_30: making the playoffs so this is something uh that i built and what and what it does is you can kind of go here and you can look underneath the hood i use actually serp api and what mine did was it did a search it got this back from the draft king sports book right and basically it gave us that as the final answer here and so really what you know we want to talk about here a little bit jcow and i want

SPEAKER_147: you to chime in because of your experience with mahalo yeah what these folks are trying to do is use a search api you already named what they are and then they're trying to take into account i guess the temporal nature of the question and other aspects you know create an experience and

SPEAKER_30: what with what we just started with with the cost of what's happening with these llms

SPEAKER_147: what advice would you give these folks that are building these things in terms of really creating the next generation experience because i feel like they're on the path but there's now a bigger

SPEAKER_176: opportunity than where they're at i would say that you know how you get to the answer is super

SPEAKER_06: important because anybody can copy the presentation layer and so this presentation layer is not

SPEAKER_100: trademarkable or copyrightable so if it turns out that the best way to give an answer is to write it in a chat format with bullet points and citations and then put some photos or video links which we

SPEAKER_06: used to call comprehensive search not just 10 blue links but you would include image search video search message board search etc all of those little innovations are probably not enough to get people to switch from google it's really hard to get people to switch off google so i think yeah the the format

SPEAKER_25: matters uh you know the presentation layer so how they're presenting it i think will appeal to some people more than a google search result getting people to change their behavior is extremely hard it has to be 10 times better um in order for people to change their behaviors so what you have to ask yourself here is is this interface that we've seen here where it gives citations and it writes it in a narrative is that actually 10 times better than google search if it's not 10 times better i don't think people switch and so these become you know i don't want to say roadkill but essentially it's not enough for people to switch their usage now one percentage point of search used to be worth a billion dollars in market cap i don't know what it's worth now because you take google's market cap and then take

SPEAKER_55: out stuff like youtube it's you know one point of market cap might be 10 billion now right there might

SPEAKER_30: it might be a trillion dollar market so i'm going to pull up two things here this is my google that doesn't have access to the latest and like this it's the same exact question yeah this is terrible

SPEAKER_143: like google has fallen really far behind so where did you get that answer at the top from that looks

SPEAKER_196: like it was taken from somewhere well it's right here right about featured snippets

SPEAKER_120: what people need to understand about snippets is uh google will pull data and format it used to be called one box now it's called snippets from somebody's website this is a very controversial

SPEAKER_06: thing um but nobody really stands up to google about it but as you can see they've intercepted you from going to that source so the question is you know will that source allow that to happen over

SPEAKER_199: time i don't know the answer to that question yeah yeah but what what i'm really um struggling with

SPEAKER_30: jcal um just going back here is that like between the startups and between google google is really falling behind here because whether i'm here and i ask the question about what are the warriors chance of making the playoffs and i get a bunch of references and some may be out of date or if i'm over at perplexity which does a better job of pulling in and you're showing me the dates from

SPEAKER_176: different um yeah here in the most recently one they understood that they should put the date which is a presentation level thing just whatever the article says the publication date was show it

Chamath Palihapitiya: so that's a smart thing when they're doing references they said always include the date

SPEAKER_66: the date here says the first one is march 5th they have a 42 chance of making it on march 26 basketball reference said a 26 chance of making the playoffs now and then you also have the the definition if we talk about the playoffs or the play in right so that's like a very odd unique thing the play-in tournament gets you the last two slots in the playoffs so yeah this is like one of

SPEAKER_25: those searches as a you you picked a really good search because getting the proper answer is hard

SPEAKER_80: so yeah you might argue that you know perplexity and you.com presenting it or jpt with bing support

SPEAKER_100: or bings doing it would be a better experience for this query um you know like and this is a really

SPEAKER_55: unique query because the data changes every day and you know they're not alive there's not a live data feed now if you said what's the stock price you know of tesla or what's the stock price of microsoft google is going to nail that i don't know if these services are going to actually do very well on that

SPEAKER_210: if you ask it you know hey what's the what's the price of tesla stock right now let's see

SPEAKER_94: yeah so i just declawed and i don't have the top version and it's not giving me anything it says unfortunately i don't have access to live stock data so they haven't even put a live stock data feed into

SPEAKER_214: some of the stuff yet what does it do when you ask those two i'm actually i just asked perplexity so

SPEAKER_218: let's pull it up um and i think they've done a good job with these live resources so it says 173.81

SPEAKER_23: and if i can start putting a citation on it that means it's not taking it from a data feed it's

SPEAKER_221: taking it from no that that's accurate that's it's 173.76 so that's accurate yeah chat gpt4 i asked

SPEAKER_52: it what is the stock price of tesla and the current stock price of tesla is 173.32 so interesting i guess

SPEAKER_120: some of them are now pulling in live data feeds yeah the issue is there's no live data feed of odds

SPEAKER_02: uh for sports books essentially i think well this is where i wanted to kind of keep building on this

SPEAKER_30: what these um different services can do is use llms to parse that because these odds exist at any given time on different sites whether it's draft kings or take your pick and the power of you know these kind of modern answer engines is that they can look at that entire page and get your answer out of it and i think that's what's really really powerful and what blew me away and i why i wanted to do these series of demos is when you ask these very specific questions it does feel like google has fallen

SPEAKER_25: way behind i'm not sure what these services do is they summarize the pages that the first five pages that come up in google google can add that i think it's going to become a copyright issue i think that's probably google hasn't done it at scale i think summarizing the articles the way this is being done without permission um is a jump ball as to whether people feel good about it or not but doesn't

SPEAKER_03: this go back to our conversation from last week where you said as long as they put a snippet and then

SPEAKER_25: link out and send you back there yeah so i think i wouldn't have a problem as a content creator with one sentence being in there or two sentences and then clicking it if it's the entire article i think

SPEAKER_55: that's where we're going to have questions so here you know if you summarize the entire new york times story i think the new york times would feel bad about it if you summarize and make it two sentences or

SPEAKER_83: three sentences would they reasonably be upset about it would that be fair use it'd be a negotiation and so

SPEAKER_41: you know the the question is will these actually drive people to those sources and when you press

SPEAKER_25: that source when you press that number does it take you directly to the source yeah it opens another one orientation there so they'll make some minimal amount of advertising here but i think what we'll see is these folks will ask for maybe some compensation if you use their data over time interesting so

SPEAKER_30: where do you rank these with respect to google because for me they're doing a much better job than

SPEAKER_224: what google is doing right now it's going to depend on the query you know if i'm doing a flight query or the price of something a stock price um or i'm just trying to get to a specific news story that i

SPEAKER_06: know like there's a new story that i want to read i probably would not experience much of a difference between chat gpt and google if i wanted a summary of hey you know what are the best restaurants

SPEAKER_25: in you know uh austin well what's the best barbecue you know i do wonder if the yelp search result the

SPEAKER_55: google search result or one of these new ones would be a better experience for me elite performers have

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SPEAKER_27: have we have a chance to convince you to try these for the next week over your oh yeah no

SPEAKER_244: i just i did that for a while i i did that last year i made my default screen but i will make my

SPEAKER_02: default search which one should i make my default search for a week uh i think maybe like perplexity

SPEAKER_227: for you know like to me i think look they're very similar so i'm gonna i would give them the same grade between you.com and perplexity right now yeah i give them a b i give them both a b i think it's like

SPEAKER_196: where's the room for upside for them because i'm a bit higher where where what can they do on upside

SPEAKER_252: i think it has to be correct data and so i think you know the i don't trust it um i think it was

SPEAKER_231: very misleading the first one you showed because it didn't have the dates of the stories so i think

SPEAKER_254: they're summarizing there was quite wrong because they presented you know four different sources with

SPEAKER_33: four different pieces of information but they didn't say as of this date this is the chances as

SPEAKER_80: of this date so perplexity seemed to actually get that nuance so i could say a b plus i give the other

SPEAKER_227: one a c plus i'll give you a c plus for this query so you didn't like that they didn't put what these

SPEAKER_80: were and what you like i just don't think it's the correct answer i think they're kind of leading you

SPEAKER_25: down the wrong road they're actually confusing this they're potentially confusing the situation um again you picked a really wonderful query because it's a confusing query um it's kind of like

SPEAKER_80: the query of like how much does it cost for a flight between these two locations it's like it depends it depends on what time you want to go it depends on if you're in business class or first class it depends on if you want to travel you know at monday morning at 6 a.m or you want to go in the middle of the day like all of these factors come into play and i think that this is where you know these language models could ultimately have a massive advantage is that they might actually think about the second and third search and kind of pull that in and so if you say hey what's a what does it cost

SPEAKER_214: to do a flight this is a good one to try um how much is a business class flight between

SPEAKER_15: san francisco and dubai you know and this is like really getting the right price on this

SPEAKER_06: that's one that takes a little bit of work right because you have all those sub questions which

SPEAKER_157: airline what days where i was going to go with this with you let's see what result you get but jason

SPEAKER_30: what is your like if you were trying to look at warriors odds to get the playoffs because we want them to get in you know we want to see our boy dream on just you know have another shot at it we

SPEAKER_147: know once they're in there everything changes yeah what is your process because again i keep coming back to mahalo like you've thought about this before so what and obviously it's changed but what is

SPEAKER_30: your j cal algorithm for figuring out what the best odds are right now what would you do yeah i would

SPEAKER_41: just take odds of making the nba playoffs i wouldn't put the warriors in there and then i would try to find a website that had the the playoff you know and the odds there so if you just type odds of making

SPEAKER_164: the nba playoffs into google it'll take you to playoffstatus.com and sports betting time so those

SPEAKER_269: is the one who they did the one box off by the way yeah so playoff status seems to be the the best uh

SPEAKER_224: result and yeah that's what i would do i would try to find a website that had those you think it's the

SPEAKER_10: best result or they paid for that we don't know uh no you don't pay to be in one box one box you can't pay to be in so that's like you have to earn that editorially i think because this is a

SPEAKER_25: single page with a nicely formatted table that's why this one wins this is why that one wins the

SPEAKER_100: google seo reach you know having a domain name that answers the question like their domain name uh playoffstatus.com answers the question you know it's like they took the time to get that domain name therefore and it's a single purpose when you go to the home page it just gives you the exact

SPEAKER_275: probability which is wild when you think about it it's also wild that my knicks are ahead of the warriors

SPEAKER_234: in the eastern conference uh yeah we are like 10. not bad two percent chance of champions five percent

SPEAKER_231: chance of the finals 16 conference champions round two 52 round one 99 yeah we know we're going to make

SPEAKER_03: the finals well your boy jalen brunson's got to stop trying to get his stats and get wins instead

SPEAKER_55: oh come on now no he only we we have three starters out right now so we have two or three starters out it's really hard for us to we have three starters out it's the fact that we're still in it um so that's

SPEAKER_80: what i would have done i i do think these things have great potential so okay um i think in another year or two this will be a very interesting conversation and can you change people's habits do people just like getting the 10 blue links the one box you know and then this perplexities

SPEAKER_55: app and you know is it too much information people like the process of just you know being transported to another website or getting a quick answer in the one box i think you're i think you're boomering

SPEAKER_278: yourself here jacal i think people just might be yeah i think people just want the answer and oh no

SPEAKER_33: i definitely think people just want the answer i'll agree with that the question is is that answer correct is i think the key issue and is summarizing a bunch of web pages yeah you know the best way to get the correct answer you know i don't know that it is i think going to data sources is going to be

SPEAKER_231: the way to get the correct the correct answer and that's where data source relationships are so important having a lot of sports scores whether getting all those data sources together is going

SPEAKER_37: to be and having a licensing arrangement with them would be really great one more double click though j

SPEAKER_30: cal when i when we look at that what you're just talking about the the playoff status.com yeah are they pulling those in from other sources or is this just because i find that really interesting or versus you know draft kings or something like that any of the sports makers like uh you know odds makers like vegas they really nail it over kind of the mathematical chances it's a great question yeah

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SPEAKER_164: results and it seems like they're posting articles so again yeah is it data or is it an article is a key piece of this yes um and so you know are you and it's pulling together it's interesting this website

SPEAKER_55: is pulling sb sports betting dime.com is pulling odds from other um sports books so they're intercepting

SPEAKER_80: traffic i think and they and their ads are all sports books so you know that game of seoing and intercepting traffic for data and then clicking through to get an ad like i think that whole game

SPEAKER_06: could be coming to an end yeah and those ads by the way are served up by google so when you start

SPEAKER_10: thinking about what's really happening here google has had an incentive to keep things inefficient i'll explain this here on an seo basis if you're not looking this is an article from march 26 it's april 1st when we're recording this so this is an old article but it came up as like number two

SPEAKER_33: in the google search rankings so pretty good job of google to find this article but this website is not the sports book itself to the best of my knowledge what it does is it's pulling together a bunch of data making charts etc and it says odds of march 26 at bet 365 365 odds makers proper odds makers so they have ranked above that group because they don't have to do all the work that bet 365 has to

SPEAKER_100: do of running a sports book all they have to do is seo and make a page that's better than sports books to intercept them in the google search and sure enough when you scroll through this what do you see here's an unlabeled ad but this ad literally has no label on it but it says get promo and you can

SPEAKER_80: see and by the way that's against the law to do that technically to have an ad without like an ad label but i guess it's a partnership maybe it's in their terms of service somewhere and then odds of march 26 and then you have five offers here caesars bet mgm sports tool again these are not exactly labeled they say claim offer so maybe you could argue that that's an offer but um you know they're they're that's the real interesting thing that's going to go away this whole race on the

SPEAKER_33: web of seo to try to beat other people out to then put ads on your page that was google's favorite thing

SPEAKER_176: to do if it was inefficient you clicked on a couple of ads either on the destination page or on their page if you give an answer you don't need to click on an ad so that that is the you know that's the

SPEAKER_06: fundamental existential issue that is correct to think about with google if you just got the answer

SPEAKER_231: do you need to click on stuff maybe maybe not you know if i did a search for these odds in a chat gpt format actually it would look good to have the offers on the bottom so they know i might

Chamath Palihapitiya: be interested in those offers so those offers would work just as well and so actually in a way what perplexity and u.com are doing is what this seo person is doing yeah they're creating a page they're

SPEAKER_154: just exactly they're creating a page to intercept traffic they can do it more dynamically because

SPEAKER_72: they're using their knowledge of ai models and you know and all that and they have all of the content

SPEAKER_10: they've scraped from these other sites so like everything's eating its tail well they didn't

SPEAKER_38: scrape anything let's be careful right i don't think they're scraping anything they're doing it all

SPEAKER_147: real time because when you do it they're looking at the results that come back and their engine is going through those results yeah and summarizing them so yeah now if you ran that software on your

SPEAKER_52: computer the summarizing software there's nothing illegal about that by the way yeah but if i build

SPEAKER_120: an advertising business based on that maybe there is something that's interesting so you're saying

SPEAKER_38: if you if i could download a plug-in that would run a model locally yes i'm allowed to do that yeah

SPEAKER_25: what you do with content on your machine is your business um so it's when you take if you downloaded

SPEAKER_231: all the star wars films and all if you download if you had all the marvel films that you paid for and you started editing them on your computer and making your own versions and videos there's nothing

SPEAKER_157: illegal about that you can do remix whatever you want it's when you republish it and you put it into commerce in the world so and try to monetize it yeah yeah an interesting thing to do would be

SPEAKER_33: eventually we all have an index of the entire web on our laptops like it sounds crazy to build this

SPEAKER_25: idea yeah but it could be done um and it could be a very powerful service if you think about it like if i took the entire wikipedia had it stored local if i had all the youtube channels i subscribed to i downloaded all those videos which i think technically would be against their terms of service but whatever if i had the transcripts of them like you could start to build this like local

SPEAKER_80: llm that might be resistant to legal issues or more resilient yeah it's like a saving you know if you want to print something from the new york times they can't stop you right um yeah and if you want to save it to your local computer they can't stop you nor do they try remember there was a time when you would like go to print something or save a pdf and they would kind of put some roadblocks on it yeah yeah um you know or you remember there are some websites you would highlight some text you go to copy like you can't do that share it using this feature yeah exactly yeah and that kind of eventually went away and now what people do is you hit file print it shows you a pdf you hit save on the

SPEAKER_55: pdf and you send the pdf to somebody you know if it's like a behind the paywall story that's what

SPEAKER_06: you see people doing in the background so i think this is a really interesting discussion um i i do

SPEAKER_10: think the chat interface will be the winning interface i think the talking interface will

SPEAKER_333: ultimately be the winning interface and you're still you're at you're at b for perplexity and c for

SPEAKER_224: for you okay yeah i think that these things have a ways to go you know before i change what i'm doing but i think the voice interface is going to be the winning one having it in your ears your airpods you know your google pixel buds whatever well one more thing i just want to close out on that one

SPEAKER_227: jay cal is next i just saw this in the news so next week meta is adding ai to those smart glasses

SPEAKER_169: sure why not so this is kind of going in the direction what you're saying so it can identify things and so you can basically sit there and do that so i think that's pretty interesting so well

SPEAKER_335: what's interesting about that is that's going to chip away at searches so google searches has you

SPEAKER_164: know continue to grow over time but apps like yelp you know or airbnb or other ways which they bought

SPEAKER_06: but you know other searches got picked off by apps or other browsers like brave that has its own search engine what this says to me is one of my um searches there in chat gpt was i took a picture of a vintage car to see what kind of car it was at a stoplight yeah and it gave me the right answer and so these things are going to do that so when you take out your phone to go do a search and say what is this or how many calories is this or what is this fruit or tell me you know my directions these things could conceivably give you good answers it's almost like meta is going to be getting into the search game everybody's going to be in the search game actually that's the conclusion i come to everybody everybody's going to be in the search game everybody's going to be

SPEAKER_10: chipping away at google search it'll be built into 20 different products 200 different products and

SPEAKER_227: you'll get answers in other places i give both the previous folks a score you know i really like what they've done and they've changed my behavior and i'm using it more so so i give them both a

SPEAKER_147: minuses and for me what i want the ability to do is customize my search algorithm if they gave me that where i can say i want you to you know you can do some things in chat gpt like tell it to always respond with tables and stuff like that i want the ability to do that and if i could get that oh

SPEAKER_80: man that would be well and if you said like listen business insider i'm not interested in news from businesses because it's like toxic and it's they're just reblogging other people and i don't want the huffington post because they don't do our original work and i don't want well vice is out of business

SPEAKER_25: and business insider probably be out of business soon i'm not sure uh but vice is definitely out of business and then buzzfeed i was thinking buzzfeed is out of business too or close to it so anyway you

Chamath Palihapitiya: could just say i don't want those kind of rebloggers in my in my feed so just don't show them again

SPEAKER_52: that that could happen through like a very interesting discussion you know um you know just say don't show me that anymore uh so my letter grades were for perplexity i think they did a

SPEAKER_06: slightly better job so i'll give them a b and for the first one you i'll give it a c i think they

SPEAKER_157: both need a lot of improvement just on making sure the results are too harsh check out too harsh this is i mean listen it's a search i want people to work harder that's it make the answers correct i

SPEAKER_25: i still stand on the fact that like ai is you know in many cases unusable for because of the hallucination and the eras this year has to be the cleanup year there's just too much bad too much

SPEAKER_38: bad information coming out of these models okay all right okay i give it to you all right let's keep going we got a couple more that one that was a good session though i really like it i think it's it's going to change the landscape of the internet so i think it's kind of a good one it's a really good

SPEAKER_06: strategic discussion of how seo how this like micro publishers doing these landing pages and

SPEAKER_33: how these folks perplexity and you.com doing yeah you know it's very easy to replicate this by the

SPEAKER_164: way too what perplexity is doing what you.com is doing anybody can replicate that very quickly and they're both i think using chat gpt4 so like they have different set of models i think it's easy to

SPEAKER_03: get to like a baseline replication but i think that's where you know they can stack on and they can differentiate right now i actually think it's getting harder and harder i think a simple thing

SPEAKER_164: is easy to do oh yeah okay all right what's going to happen is like google will have uh all of these features bing will have all these features facebook will add all these features i think it's just way too hard to displace google um and i think google will just add these features as they need to so okay i think then let's we'll keep coming back i would do a long bet with you that in five years

SPEAKER_195: those companies will have less than one percent search market share you want to make that better wait but if they ever go over one percent if they ever go over one percent i win i'm giving it within

SPEAKER_255: five years but they just have to cross it once i'll take that bet yeah they have to cross it on

SPEAKER_373: you know whatever uh in a quarter yeah in a year i don't know pick a pick a duration it can't just be like they had one day and they spike because they were on the cover of the new york times but they

SPEAKER_375: over some some like a quarter any of the next five years they hit one percent okay in a quarter

SPEAKER_378: in a quarter or a year i mean add it to the bets we're going okay so 5k yeah that yes you and

SPEAKER_231: perplexity will not break one percent marsh's share in a in a quarter within the next five years

SPEAKER_381: starting first i disagree and we'll do it on a quarterly basis in a quarter because that will be yeah i'm going to track five times four 20 i'm going to track that crazy yeah there's 5k at stake here

SPEAKER_03: so we'll see who wins all right okay uh i don't think they're gonna break one percent okay let's do another demo here next one okay next one is infinity ai i really like this as well this one

SPEAKER_147: is one of the ones where they basically don't have a ui you have to do it on discord and so what i did was i said uh do a short clip of the all in podcast um where they debate about taylor swift okay just

SPEAKER_30: that is kind of interesting and what we're going to do is i'm going to play this so i just this was my prompt this is the short and it's called infinity ai infinity.ai yeah and basically i'm

SPEAKER_122: going to play this for you ready these folks use discord because you can you don't have to replicate a chat infrastructure you can just use their chat infrastructure so what discord does is it kind of

SPEAKER_03: interestingly brings like community chat all kind of mixed into the same thing so it's like it'd be like back in the day launching your app on icq so if you launch it there like people can start talking about it and using it and connect it so create some virality to it smart and you know it's really

SPEAKER_216: good in the early days because people are just always doing it so ready i'm gonna play this taylor

SPEAKER_00: swift overrated or icon undeniably talented but the best her music's market domination dramatic lacks diversity in themes shake it off a friedberg i mean it kind of attempted a joke right and look this is

SPEAKER_03: this is hot off the presses it was new and fresh wow um it did it in maybe five like a couple of minutes

SPEAKER_06: um not bad i mean it's pretty great when you think about it because it did the video the audio and the script is what you're saying yes so this is like the whole complete and it didn't do a full

SPEAKER_10: episode but if it can do nine seconds it'll be able to do 90 seconds next year and nine minutes the year after and then 90 minutes a year after that so this is i think your framework is right the time frame

SPEAKER_23: is going to be a lot quicker okay six months every six months yeah you know okay so in six months it's not it's 90 seconds in another six months it's nine minutes and in a year and a half it'll be 90 minutes

SPEAKER_25: so i would say 18 months for them to do a full episode that is not laughably bad yeah and there's

SPEAKER_407: another short little clip okay there's another one there we go oh my god okay oh my god there's a five

SPEAKER_164: full 90 minute episode of over under all in 18 months you can do a full episode that is like actually watchable wow and you would like watch the episode because it would be funny and intelligent oh my god you know it wouldn't be stupid just nonsense like this was almost watchable like you'd almost want to say i'll keep listening because it was yeah you know like i kind of wanted to hear more i was like yeah i didn't want to hear more like where is this going this discussion is so uh what do you say 18 months they can do a 90 minute podcast that is uh worth listening to like

SPEAKER_418: it's not gobbledygook it's actually a coherent episode in 18 months over or under what would you take i take the under i'm always taking over there it is another bet okay 15 minutes from now 5k oh my god

SPEAKER_422: oh my god this is gonna be shipping bestie coins back and forth this has gone from the small game to

SPEAKER_425: the big game it's become the big game big game of bets should we be doing five thousand dollar bets i don't know where i even came up from that maybe it should be a thousand dollar bets because i thought

SPEAKER_406: we thought we were gonna have maybe like five and we're like oh that's interesting yeah so now it's like this is gonna be 20 bats it'll be a hundred k at work here hopefully these things wash out a little

SPEAKER_427: bit yeah there's a second bet all right okay um so let's do one more demo that one was

SPEAKER_431: infinity i give it oh really well no i give it an a minus okay because it's only no wait a second

David Friedberg: i give it a b plus at nine seconds okay if they get it to 90 sec if they get it to nine minutes i probably would have given this an a minus and if they give it in they get it to you know an hour

SPEAKER_80: i would give it an a plus so i'm giving it a b plus right now i mean i mean tree okay also

SPEAKER_84: like i wonder how long did it take for this to get back to you when you actually did it like like three four minutes like there was any human intervention where somebody looked at it and

SPEAKER_38: i don't you know massage it a bit like all you guys no way there's that that discord is moving

SPEAKER_80: pretty fast right so there's stuff happening no what is it trained on infinity that it has

SPEAKER_01: all of the video and our voices are our video and voices already just built into ai is it like the podcast that popular that they've ingested all podcasts or they've ingested all youtube channels like what's the training data there oh that's a good question what is it how did they get that because they if they did it that fast did they do a web search for all in podcasts and then index that you think or was it already in their index based on your knowledge you know like they have done that with a web live web search

SPEAKER_315: no they couldn't have done it live you can't you can't go and train the voices and i was thinking

SPEAKER_203: in the context window do you think they went and found in a recent episode put it in the context

SPEAKER_449: window and then built it off that episode i just don't think it's possible to do it that quickly this is a really good question i mean yeah so so that means they already had in their model

SPEAKER_25: the all-in podcast so then the question is how did they get it in there are they scraping all of the top youtube channels and videos or are they scraping um all podcasts interesting i don't know you notice

SPEAKER_406: all podcasts now have transcripts apple spotify they're all doing transcripts now yeah well you've been

SPEAKER_454: doing it a long time that you would have to pay someone before right we used to pay somebody before

SPEAKER_25: but it was just like it didn't even come out that great it was too much work to do it and not okay

SPEAKER_139: not enough juice from the squeeze is what i would say all right let's do one more here okay i'm going

SPEAKER_38: to give these guys an a and you know yeah that's that's that's not jenna it's really hard to do like you said look at all these things that they pulled off in a prompt it's incredible all right give me

SPEAKER_130: another one hit me again so j cole you had human and yeah give us a quick rundown episode 1922

SPEAKER_27: okay awesome and what was your impression because they have empathetic voice so i want to bring that

SPEAKER_06: up that's my last demo for yeah i mean it's the demo is unbelievable they have trained their ai to very quickly understand your facial expressions your emotional expressions and then what you know developers choose to do with that is up to them the things that would come to mind might be on a personal basis therapy or companionship and so there have been pitched on a lot of people doing therapeutic models oh you sound like you're a little bit um exhausted there sonny um tell me how you're doing and then you know you talk to it but it really understands your tone of voice now imagine it with the chat bots we just did you're like no i don't want the warriors chances of

SPEAKER_25: hitting the playoffs from last year or from six months ago i want to know it right now now imagine chat gpt was like oh you sound a bit exacerbated i could do a better job let me get right to work right so or you call customer support now you get into the enterprise right so there's consumer applications

SPEAKER_06: enterprise applications there's a company we invested in real voice and then there's another one gong that study how salespeople talk during conversations and they say hey match your thousand person sales team and we'll tell you the top 10 of performers and how they talk to their clients on the phone and then it's like oh the ones who ask the most questions and get the client talking are the one who closed the biggest deals great who's not who's talking too much on their episode on their uh calls tell that person to change their statements change it up a bit change it up a bit right so i do think

SPEAKER_25: there's a range of interesting things here and we got into a massive ethical debate about this too

SPEAKER_301: which we can get into but let's do the demo of hume.ai okay we're gonna pull it up here hi

SPEAKER_218: well hey there hmm you sound a little i'm really concerned about the warriors making the playoffs i see

SPEAKER_472: ah the warrior huh what's got you thinking about them got you the playoffs for those people who are

SPEAKER_06: listening it's telling you what emotions what top three emotions sunny is you know conveying with his voice and um it's really spookily accurate and then you can pick personas and so imagine you were calling

SPEAKER_33: united and you were frustrated and it knows you're frustrated and it knows you're like platinum status

SPEAKER_06: it's like sunny we really appreciate your business we know your platinum status we're going to work this out for you uh your bags lost we know that can be incredibly frustrating uh i found it it's in

SPEAKER_25: nashville we're going to get it to you know like you could really start to make these things and what it also does is you know when you're talking to a chat and it doesn't know to release to let the

SPEAKER_195: other person talk yes super frustrating when you do talk about chat gpt4 specifically they know

SPEAKER_12: through facial expressions that you've finished your thought like i just did right now which means they can insert themselves so they the ability of them to insert themselves it makes the latency in

SPEAKER_231: the conversation much better if you're just using audio think about all the latency that you experience with siri and alexa one of the reasons siri and alexa suck so bad is you ask it to do something and the amount of time it takes is greater than you changing the song on spotify right you're looking up

SPEAKER_25: up the the weather yourself but with these tools specifically if you were looking at your phone

SPEAKER_06: or your computer and it had the camera on it would know if you said hey how much snow is there in tahoe it would immediately tell you it wouldn't wait yep oh you know it waits like three seconds i think to

SPEAKER_227: know you've stopped talking that kills the whole experience yep yep and look i think as we move

SPEAKER_30: towards what you tied back into the first conversation if voice is going to be the interface that you think it wins here understanding when the human's getting frustrated understanding when they want

SPEAKER_147: something quickly understanding when they want it to be slower that's that's incredible that we now

SPEAKER_03: have models that are able to predict that for us now imagine i start using it for nefarious purposes

SPEAKER_25: i'm tick tock i want to create chaos in america or i'm putin and i want to create chaos in america

SPEAKER_06: and remember the russians were doing all those boiler rooms and setting up i know sacks will say this never happened but this happened trust me folks you can look at the mule report like they had boiler rooms uh the question is was it effective now setting up boiler rooms where you try

SPEAKER_25: to um you know uh put up memes of hillary clinton versus trump or whatever like did that have an effect probably did probably didn't sway anybody's votes now you look at this technology if it was talking to you and it was creating content could it possibly steer you into a direction in terms of your political

SPEAKER_06: activism well we're already seeing on tick tock that and you can be on whichever side you prefer to be on i'm on the side of like stop the wars and you know treat people with uh civility and kindness you know if you start looking at the palestine issue it's incredibly pro-palestine anti-israel on tick tock and then on other platforms it might be the opposite um you can really start to steer people

SPEAKER_12: with these ai assistance into a certain way of thinking just very subtly with knowing their emotion

SPEAKER_25: so it's very dangerous i think um to know psychologically where somebody's at and what their vulnerabilities are you you could just as easily make somebody feel better on a customer

SPEAKER_55: support call as you could radicalize them into being a terrorist now that sounds farcical but people are radicalized into terrorism all every day of the year it might be a small number of people and

SPEAKER_12: maybe only one percent of the population is susceptible to it or maybe even 0.1 but if this technology could get their hands on that one in a thousand who could become a lone wolf or is suffering from

SPEAKER_25: some mental disability and then convince them to do things this is really dark um and they actually have a really interesting um code of conduct on the website imagine it for gambling if it was encouraging you to gamble if this is built into one of the gambling sites and it was like subtly encouraging you

SPEAKER_264: to place more bets you know brave new world jakel brave new world i mean i give this hume thing like

SPEAKER_176: an a minus right now it was scary interactive scary accurate in my interactions with it um and i do think

SPEAKER_25: it's going to change the latency and make the interaction with ais yeah 10 times better so back

SPEAKER_195: to that 10 times better thing i said earlier with products yep this does make a product 10 times better

SPEAKER_27: yeah i'm in the same spot like i think we're on the verge of a huge amount of deflation technology

SPEAKER_30: power deflation for society which means hopefully we could just focus on better things and in order

SPEAKER_62: for us to get technology to become you know better human interface this is what's going to be needed

SPEAKER_231: there exactly all right this has been another amazing episode of this week in startups our ai edition you

SPEAKER_25: can follow us both on x x.com sandeep x.com jason formerly known as twitter and interact with us the show is twi startups you can search this week in startups on youtube subscribe there watch it there when you're not listening and you get to see all these great demos you can see all the demos and all the episodes at this week in startups.com ai we keep that page updated wonderful job we'll see you all next week bye bye