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I assume it's more like stock options than sports betting.

Is there something like a market maker to help provide liquidity?

Is it setting probabilities/prices using something like black-scholes?

How would you design a very simple prediction market MVP?"},"title":{"fullyHighlighted":false,"matchLevel":"full","matchedWords":["polymarket"],"value":"Ask HN: What are the algorithms used by predictions markets like Polymarket?"}},"_tags":["story","author_callmeed","story_41950192","ask_hn"],"author":"callmeed","children":[41950224,41950298,41950301,41950450,41950541,41950543],"created_at":"2024-10-25T21:54:28Z","created_at_i":1729893268,"num_comments":10,"objectID":"41950192","points":7,"story_id":41950192,"story_text":"I am curious how prediction markets like polymarket and kalshi work behind the scenes. I assume it's more like stock options than sports betting.

Is there something like a market maker to help provide liquidity?

Is it setting probabilities/prices using something like black-scholes?

How would you design a very simple prediction market MVP?","title":"Ask HN: What are the algorithms used by predictions markets like Polymarket?","updated_at":"2025-12-06T07:16:55Z"},{"_highlightResult":{"author":{"matchLevel":"none","matchedWords":[],"value":"baobabKoodaa"},"story_text":{"fullyHighlighted":false,"matchLevel":"full","matchedWords":["polymarket"],"value":"Since today, CloudFlare suddenly started censoring Polymarket for German users without any prior warning. Pretty nasty to do this to traders who have active positions and orders who are suddenly unable to exit their positions and cancel their orders. Polymarket has responded to this by adding Germany to their list of restricted markets. No official announcement is visible from either the German government, Polymarket or CloudFlare. This is what you get when you start censoring the internet. It never is just the CP and nazis. It just expands and expands and the people supporting censorship do not care how many people they hurt."},"title":{"fullyHighlighted":false,"matchLevel":"full","matchedWords":["polymarket"],"value":"Tell HN: Cloudflare now censors Polymarket in Germany"}},"_tags":["story","author_baobabKoodaa","story_46253313","ask_hn"],"author":"baobabKoodaa","children":[46253331,46253432,46253481],"created_at":"2025-12-13T09:37:47Z","created_at_i":1765618667,"num_comments":9,"objectID":"46253313","points":7,"story_id":46253313,"story_text":"Since today, CloudFlare suddenly started censoring Polymarket for German users without any prior warning. Pretty nasty to do this to traders who have active positions and orders who are suddenly unable to exit their positions and cancel their orders. Polymarket has responded to this by adding Germany to their list of restricted markets. No official announcement is visible from either the German government, Polymarket or CloudFlare. This is what you get when you start censoring the internet. It never is just the CP and nazis. It just expands and expands and the people supporting censorship do not care how many people they hurt.","title":"Tell HN: Cloudflare now censors Polymarket in Germany","updated_at":"2026-03-05T23:11:01Z"},{"_highlightResult":{"author":{"matchLevel":"none","matchedWords":[],"value":"abetusk"},"title":{"fullyHighlighted":false,"matchLevel":"full","matchedWords":["polymarket"],"value":"$30M Is All It Took to Shift the Odds in Trump's Favor on Polymarket"},"url":{"fullyHighlighted":false,"matchLevel":"full","matchedWords":["polymarket"],"value":"https://gizmodo.com/30-million-is-all-it-took-to-shift-the-odds-in-trumps-favor-on-polymarket-2000513653"}},"_tags":["story","author_abetusk","story_41885530"],"author":"abetusk","children":[41885539,41885632,41885737,41885999,41886993],"created_at":"2024-10-19T03:53:49Z","created_at_i":1729310029,"num_comments":5,"objectID":"41885530","points":7,"story_id":41885530,"title":"$30M Is All It Took to Shift the Odds in Trump's Favor on Polymarket","updated_at":"2024-10-28T05:33:52Z","url":"https://gizmodo.com/30-million-is-all-it-took-to-shift-the-odds-in-trumps-favor-on-polymarket-2000513653"}],"hitsPerPage":50,"nbHits":571,"nbPages":12,"page":0,"params":"query=Polymarket&tags=story&hitsPerPage=50&advancedSyntax=true&analyticsTags=backend","processingTimeMS":9,"processingTimingsMS":{"_request":{"queue":9,"roundTrip":20},"afterFetch":{"format":{"total":1}},"fetch":{"query":7,"total":8},"total":9},"query":"Polymarket","serverTimeMS":20}