SPEAKER_00: the goal of consumers getting more for less has been achieved so greatly by these companies

SPEAKER_01: that to go and invest in a competitor sometimes this doesn't make sense gmail being free

SPEAKER_00: is a really hard price for the industry to compete with the browsers being free is an incredibly hard price that's where the software eventually winds up a gigabyte a terabyte you know just massive amounts of free storage for photos we have gotten to the point where the market has made everything free and cheap for consumers with the exception of the industries where our government is running them and regulating over regulating them housing health care and education if we really want to point the gun of regulation somewhere for the love of god crack the monopolies that these colleges have with accreditation crack the monopoly on health care and insurance and pharma and crack the crazy regulations that and these companies buying tons of uh homes and on housing that's

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SPEAKER_10: first year all right alex how was your weekend uh mine was good i played some poker online when the kids were down but i think i think you were actually uh somewhere else playing cards i was in vegas this

SPEAKER_00: weekend for the national heads up tournament uh this is like a very famous poker series that kind of went away for a little bit now it's back i understand poker go peacock you know nbc uh and uh i can't tell you any details but it was a blast and i can tell you it's great to be a celebrity now that i am a minor celebrity there was uh football players from the nfl there were you know podcasters chefs you know all kinds

SPEAKER_13: of interesting actors and me wait a minute wait i've seen back in the day the old heads up tournaments right and in my experience it was always like a couple of pros staring over you know the table at

SPEAKER_10: each other this sounds much more like is this a pro-am event basically pro-am they have the pros can buy

SPEAKER_17: in for 25k then they have celebrities who come so just a lot of fun met a lot of interesting people

SPEAKER_00: and that'll be coming in a couple of weeks on tv i'm gonna do a little more tv poker because i noticed you know as much as you want to think like the work you do here on the podcasts um the investment work writing books sub stacks emails whatever like these are the important things what i've learned is when people see me courtside at a game or in on poker that has more more cachet and drives more applications for our fund and people applying for investment which you can do at launch.co apply launch.co apply then maybe doing podcasts i don't know so i'm just and also selfishly i like sitting courtside at nba games and i like um i like playing cards so a little more

SPEAKER_18: you know invite me to your online tv poker i'll go maybe if i have time uh jason on that note do you

SPEAKER_21: want to start with the lena con victory lap well before i do that um i just want to also make a

SPEAKER_23: quick announcement founder university has been this incredible program we created uh we just finished 10 cohorts of it it's a 12-week course they meet twice a week monday you get some content a speaker thursdays you meet in a pod of 30 other founders and you talk about what you got done that week every monday you give us like an update on your company you fill out a form here's what we got and then you know whoever from my team is your pod leader uh will then you know feature you in that thursday uh session it's all on zoom uh we do some in-person stuff and boy it's been amazing it just keeps growing i think we have 350 teams and we wind up investing in the top 10 of them it has not gone unnoticed around the world this program because it's a pre-accelerator and probably one of the most difficult things that our industry has is this nebulous period between really qualified people with

SPEAKER_24: an idea and incorporation cap table being formed in other words the foundation of a startup now when people get their 125k check from tech stars or r accelerator y combinator all that has to get

SPEAKER_00: done right because the check has to be received and put into a bank account but most of the time what i see you know in the in the field and the industry sees is a bunch of people working on a project on weekends while they're still working at google or facebook and if you do that use your own computer and make sure you keep some clean lines there don't do it on like because they're going to take it from you well they will have a claim if you know and rightfully so if you're doing it during work hours or you're doing it on their equipment or using their resources so just be thoughtful

SPEAKER_23: folks about that um anyway you also know i've been spending time in uh mina uh middle east north africa region and uh people kept asking me over and over again hey when are you bringing this week in startups and when are you bringing founder university or your accelerator to the region and after much discussion uh one group uh you know uh really wanted us to do this and that was the novel from uh the pif in saudi and uh so we're going to be bringing this fall i can't believe this is actually happening folks it's incredible uh we're going to be bringing founder university to mina so this is a big deal for us uh it's the first time i've done anything outside the united states first time i've done anything in the region so what are you going to learn at this thing well i'll be on the ground for like the first week and i'll probably come to graduation as well so i'll be there a week or two a year um and we're going to try to find ambitious founders in the region if you want to build great companies you need two or three people on your team you need to have uh you know a product person hopefully who can write the code and actually build it i mean maybe if somebody's really good at vibe code and we've been in it so um anyone can apply from anywhere in the world if you commit to in-person sessions in riyadh uh which is really fun and an interesting place to go visit uh so if you're an early stage founder really what we do this based on is the team so you can go to mina m-e-n-a dot founder dot university mina dot founder dot university you can pull up the website if you don't mind and um you're gonna learn a lot of important stuff like you know cap tables product market fit you know having world-class design and what that actually means because it does make a difference uh landing your first customer landing your first 10 customers and so here it is folks

SPEAKER_00: we're doing it and um i couldn't be more excited i think the future um of technology and business um is going to be driven by three regions the united states mina and uh asia and so if we look at those three regions obviously we're very big players here in the united states uh and we are neophytes uh in mina but we will not be in two years when we've run four of these sessions so we're going to do i think six sessions to a year for the next three years and then we'll make an announcement at some point about asia if we choose to do that so question yeah please so you mentioned uh in the american

SPEAKER_28: version of this you fund about the top ten percent yeah um is that going to be the same ratio over in

SPEAKER_00: mina no uh we do not have a vehicle set up for investing in these companies however if they are delaware companies and they're addressing the u.s market launch fund for when we raised money from

SPEAKER_17: our lps we told them that was the focus of that fund so this is an interesting question very well done um your journalism paying off we don't have as the mandate for that fund to uh invest outside this region uh north america so therefore you can't bait and switch your lps essentially or change the mandate without going to them and getting a bunch of paperwork done which is

SPEAKER_00: impossible so if there are shining stars there we're definitely going to invest in them from launch fund for if not uh i'm considering starting launch mina a fund for specifically companies in that region so that our lps can do that so i might set up a 10 or 25 million dollar fund at some point just

SPEAKER_17: for the region and my goal in this third chapter of my life is to really go international uh my third act and you know unless we get this uh technology dialed in and we have four acts my third act is going to

SPEAKER_23: be the sort of global network of founder universities so i want to see you know i was in singapore so singapore and japan are other candidates singapore japan australia i've got friends and partners in sydney and melbourne perth a bunch of places so my goal and i think i'll skip europe uh unless there's like a really great reason to do it if there's some amazing country that really wants it in europe uh i would consider it certainly but there there is a big ecosystem already built up there uh so outpost for founder university in each of the major markets and we go from there

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SPEAKER_13: website so it's really interesting we were talking the other day with a couple of investors here on twist i think it was the last wednesday panel and we were talking about how everyone invests early and everyone wants to find these founders early on and we've talked previously about the price sensitivity of early stage investors and et cetera et cetera and people want to get as early as they can i don't think you can get earlier than founder university right i think this is as early so i i think you should take it everywhere man because it just seems like the cheapest best way to find the

SPEAKER_22: next best people the issue with this is it's not the best way to make money i believe it's the best

SPEAKER_23: way to make impact but it's not the best way to make money if i was strictly optimizing for returns i could have a very simple life i was offered at one point to be in a growth fund with like a seven figure salary and the only goal was to use my influence and name to get maybe one or two deals a year so get an allocation in neural link spacex stripe andrel whatever maybe that last one would be kind of hard anyway get allocations in you know the the next big thing when it's that series c or

SPEAKER_24: something and most people would be like you know i think probably three out of four times people like oh yeah i'd like to have jacal on the cap table you know he'll make a big deal out of it on his social media on his podcast so that would be for if i was optimizing for money i'm optimizing for the journey and my joy and my great joy is when i meet with a founder before they're incorporated

SPEAKER_23: or as they're getting incorporated and i get to be the first second third investor and so i've just decided to optimize for that i mean what's the point of being what's the point of having f you money i'll just add this yeah alex if you don't get to pick the world you live in i pick the world i live in and this is like a really good thing for people to understand who are listening especially young people who aren't going to have the same job prospects we'll get into that a little bit today

SPEAKER_00: i'm sure you might not have the same job prospects you're on your own and here's the reward for being on your own you work twice as hard you stare at the ceiling you have a pit of acid in the bottom of your stomach you got to have some greek yogurt to get over it and then at one point you do cross over and then you realize i can do whatever i want i'm dangerous i can define the world i live in you when i offered you to come here which i did for three years and i think in whatever the second or third year you were like you know it's it's time for me yeah um at certain point i watched it flipping you you're like i could work for private equity folks and be yanked on their chain or i can start the road towards independence and i think you're probably either there or well

SPEAKER_43: on your way so i give you a lot of credit for that i want to just add a caveat or in addition so jason

SPEAKER_13: mentioned fu money and um i don't think there's enough money in the world just for everyone to have as much as you but i do think that what young people can do and this is i mean this from the bottom of my heart i tell a lot of young people that's who ask me about financial advice is if you start your savings journey early you'll have more flexibility and independence and therefore you're more dangerous so if you want to give yourself a shot when you're in your early 20s

SPEAKER_43: save more and bank it and invest it just buy some index funds and you will be such in a better place

SPEAKER_23: when you're 30. so great you say this i literally was playing my first heads-up match was against a 23

SPEAKER_34: year old um poker player who had made a million dollars and had a deep run in the main event really really really nice kid um and um he's asking me a bit of advice at the table we were getting into a little table talk it was pretty spicy for a bit there but then i wound up loving the kid um and i

SPEAKER_47: wouldn't say anything else because i don't want to spoil surprises he um i told him you know as you

SPEAKER_24: win this money figure out what your 401k your ira and all these acronyms are and max them out every

SPEAKER_23: year 25k 10k whatever you got and never touch it never look at it never alter it put it in low fee

SPEAKER_24: index funds and every year when they compound you're going to have more and more freedom um

SPEAKER_23: let's get to the docket there's a lot going on so anyway i'm really excited i'll be on the ground in saudi the first week in november i might go out the week before for fii uh and speak there uh that's the big conference that the saudis do uh run by the pif yasser and all the great team over there i spoke at it two years ago i think or maybe it was last year uh anyway i i really am excited about this because i think i'm in a unique position right now to build a bridge between these two regions i've said this before i think probably the most important region in the next 20 years is going to be not china but the middle east why oh because they have so much capital and they're so smart and they've been educated in the west and they're so ambitious they're kind of like the new america they're the upstart now and they've been explicit and multiple conversations across multiple countries

SPEAKER_17: bahrain uae uh qatar or qatar uh saudi the kingdom always the same story we've got 30 years of you know

SPEAKER_23: this petro uh economy and um we're going to take all that money and invest it in real estate technology private equity venture capital sustainable energy nuclear science ai and uh they're they're bold they place big bets and their bets will pay off not all of them but the ones that do hit are going

SPEAKER_00: to change the world so it's really important that the alignment uh based on people i've talked to in our government and around it it's critically important that americans take seriously this region

SPEAKER_17: i mean there's obviously business benefits uh but there's i have plenty of deal flow here in the united states i don't need to do this this is really i'm doing this for and this is not to be like uh

SPEAKER_00: maybe delusional but i do think if these if the fabric of these two regions uh gets more intertwined

SPEAKER_22: it's going to be better for humanity ultimately uh and you can see what happens when it unwinds with our

SPEAKER_13: relationship with china i'll leave it at that i just want to the thing i was going to say is jason saudi arabia's population just to stick with the riyadh example is incredibly young and that's why to me it makes a lot of sense because you know that yeah right this is uh explain that yeah uh this is the population pyramid and so what it shows is the number of people at different age bands and what you want to see if you're a healthy country is lots of young people lots of people in middle age and then people tail off as they pass away uh population charts that are less healthy are smaller at the bottom fewer babies and they bulge out in the middle um the saudi arabian pyramid is a pyramid it's literally like there's so many more young people than old people which means that in coming generations there'll be lots of folks to do work it's kind of the inverse italy

SPEAKER_34: if you will or the inverse of japan would be the other striking one is absolutely you know um and what that also means is young people who are super tech savvy super worldly and these societies uh having seen it up close and personal have been evolving very rapidly very rapidly and so when you go to dubai as an example or um you know doha or abu dhabi and now uh when you go to saudi and you go to riyadh it's starting to feel to me like new york in the 80s and 90s that's the vibe you get it's becoming really um cosmopolitan um most of the people i've been doing business with i would say like a third are

SPEAKER_23: women who have been educated in the west so a lot of the you know i think a lot of collectively people in the west vision of what's going on in the middle east is probably stuck to 10 20 years ago and now it's really different and and the pace of change there is dramatic so i'm super excited to spend more time there and be part of this incredible journey lena khan lena khan you know if it really is interesting to me how high profile people who cause damage to like the ecosystem then come out and like try to take a victory lap and last week lena khan tried to take a victory lap and she was absolutely

SPEAKER_34: demolished by everybody in the industry immediately maybe you could just cue this up for us i don't

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SPEAKER_13: there was a company called figma it was a little startup back in the day then back in 2022 adobe wanted to buy for 20 billion dollars with a one billion dollar breakup fee and then over the next year the deal was stalled and then never got done so figma walked away with a billion dollars adobe walked away with a bruised face and basically people have pointed a finger at that era of the ftc as being too punitive towards mergers and acquisitions and today the counterpoint is that figma has gone public it priced at around 20 billion dollars in its ipo and then immediately shot higher it was 47 50 billion dollars at the peak and so lena khan came as you can see on your screen and said this was a great reminder that letting startups grow into independently successful businesses rather than be bought up by existing giants can generate enormous values she calls the figma ipo and its resulting pop a win for employees investors innovation and the public and then jason there's this guy named jason who

SPEAKER_47: didn't agree shockingly enough talk me through this well you know i really think that her philosophy

SPEAKER_23: of being able to predict future competition and then putting her thumb on the scale of different transactions is not how business should be run it should be up to the leaders of these businesses

SPEAKER_24: their employees their investors to make these decisions as to what's right for them so we can sit

SPEAKER_23: here and do a revisionist history okay this thing had a big pop you know of course check with me in two years because this pop i think um in a lot of these recent ipo pops just my signaling is you know it could be a situation where they're trading at the same price three years from now um and we have seen some companies with that where they just came out too hot and they had to grow back into that valuation she believes that a company that charges 10 or 20 a month for their product being bought by another company that charges 15 or 20 a month for their product

SPEAKER_00: are in some way going to cause there to be less competition in 10 years or 20 years it is the most farcical ridiculous argument ever this is niche software in the age of vibe coding and an acceleration and sas being absolutely challenged by these new technologies and this happens every single time the government intervenes which is the market takes care of it there are a thousand startup teams that could replicate any piece of adobe or figma software in less than a year and create a viable co-exister and eventual competitor and they could do that for under 10 million dollars people don't choose to do that in some cases because the products that are out there are so cheap they're so affordable that you would be tilting at a windmill which is to say the goal of consumers getting more for less has been achieved so greatly by these companies that to go and invest in a competitor sometimes this doesn't make sense gmail being free is a really hard price for the industry to compete with the browsers being free is an incredibly hard price that's where the software eventually winds up a gigabyte a terabyte you know just massive amounts of free storage for photos yeah we have gotten to the point where the market has made everything free and cheap for consumers with the exception of the industries where our government is running them and regulating over regulating them housing health care and education if we really want to point the gun of regulation somewhere for the love of god crack the monopolies that these colleges have with accreditation crack the monopoly on health care and insurance and firma and crack the crazy regulations that and these companies buying tons of uh homes and on housing that's where we need it you don't need it in our industry the fact that we have a race to figure out how cheaply we can move people and services around that's at a buck fifty a mile two dollars a mile and going down to a buck and then going down to fifty cents tells you everything you need to know

SPEAKER_23: so it's important for all of us to recognize when the government is overreaching either way

SPEAKER_24: and the government isn't doing enough to crack the three monopolies i just talked about healthcare

SPEAKER_75: education and housing because they're captured by special interests and they're doing too much to get involved and tinker with tiny insignificant m a dispatsy odd i'm done all right so taking a couple of

SPEAKER_13: those points um wanted to let you finish your thought uh the argument that people don't go into competition when price points are low is an argument against founding figma in the shadow of adobe so i would quibble with that one a little bit but what i thought i did right so that's my point

SPEAKER_23: yeah no sometimes i'm just saying overall the reason why you don't see google and microsoft competing with adobe is they think not a big not a big prize there it's a minor prize right that should give you an indication now why does everybody uh seemingly be seems to be building a search engine and

SPEAKER_85: a browser because that's market big enough to go after market big enough to go after so

SPEAKER_23: you know just kind of proves my point um and you know there's also open source people forget that if you want a free version of photoshop there's a free version of it if you want a free operating

SPEAKER_24: system there's chrome os if you want a free i mean there's um what's the free microsoft office

SPEAKER_23: competitor there's a free open source libra office is that the one the open source uh microsoft office competitor yeah and and some people use that right mm-hmm some people libra office l-i-b-r-e

SPEAKER_88: office uh i think there's more than one of those there's open office as well there's several of

SPEAKER_13: these out there that people don't use much like linux um so i i knew we were going to end up right here of jason's views alex's views so i ran some math just to get some numbers for us so i went back in time to the earliest time we could find figma's valuation which was its series uh it's only raised 40 million dollars at a 440 post pretty sure that was the series c so irr to september 2022 at the 20 billion dollar exit price would have been 187 that number is too high because it wouldn't have closed at that point it would have closed actually about a year later but i wanted to make the most positive case for for that then i ran it at today's market cap this morning so 48.8 billion not the peak that it reached on friday just trying to be fair here and that was irr with the additional time of 106 percent so in irr terms investors didn't do better if they bought it at the series c and sold at the ipo than they would have at the figma sorry at the adobe price but their total return was larger

SPEAKER_10: because it eventually uh became worth more money so in case you were curious about that that's kind of

SPEAKER_23: the way it is the internal rate of return this means what percentage did you gain every year in your investment this is the pure way to look at an investment because if you were to double your money in one year versus tripling your money in 10 the irr is going to be quite different one's going to be seven percent one's going to be a hundred percent in other words what did you make each year this is why venture capitalists hedge fund managers private equity all of that looks at irr now you can look at cash on cash i like to do that as well but if you know this is the obvious uh reality that people are ignoring here and for good reason yeah you never want to let the facts get in the way of a good story so uh so that was actually a great get by you by the way very nicely done because i was going to ask you about that because i actually didn't know and you did it from series b or c which i did from

SPEAKER_22: series c if you did it from the seed round or series a i think this would be even more dramatic the irr for those people obviously but you did you split the baby you went right for the middle well i went

SPEAKER_13: for the first valuation that i could be confident about i started at the seed round but i couldn't figure out exactly what their seat and also by that point there was only a handful of investors and we're talking about the majority case um there's no crying in the casino there's no crying in the club everyone did very well here i i just think that i i think i think lena khan's getting kind of a bad stick because deal making under the new administration has been tanking and if you compare growth rates in deal making in the 2003-2004 range it was going up and now i i have the chart here from s&p i'll just show you jason um it's going down and so there was all this this complaint from folks like yourself who had a reasonable contention with the con ftc i'm not dismissing what you're saying uh but under the new administration i'm hearing no complaint about meddling from the white house and trade policies that are damaging and dampening deal making so i i guess just an alt i'll accept all the lena con criticism if there's some consistency in condemnation of the trump administration for scuttling what was supposed to be a strong year for m a in north america and as you can see from this chart from s&p global it's not uh for our industry

SPEAKER_101: it's massive this is probably the overall industry so yeah this is totally eliminated yeah i can't

SPEAKER_00: speak to it because i don't know what's going on in other pockets of the economy and why

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SPEAKER_23: we're seeing an incredible velocity when we look at those other charts that show mna specifically to tech and we've had them here it shows it rebounding this year um and we've been tracking it ourselves the number of ipos number of mna transactions we also have to look at the size of them this is the other issue too with these numbers and fun with numbers um is we're going to have to

SPEAKER_00: look at you know maybe two year increments if we bucketed them uh and then by the size of the acquisition in our industry because the exits aren't all equal and what we want to see is a good number

SPEAKER_23: of single and doubles i'll call those under five billion dollar transactions and then we want to see

SPEAKER_24: the home runs and grand slams which would be five to 25 billion would be the home runs and then 25 billion to 100 billion would be the grand slam category wiz is a grand slam um and then some of these other ones are you know home runs you know even instacart where the last set of investors got rocked but

SPEAKER_23: everybody else did or the early investors did well the late investors did poorly still a home run for

SPEAKER_47: the early investors and it's kind of like getting hit by the ball and getting on the first base for

SPEAKER_112: everybody else it hurts it hurts it's painful you got a lot of makeup okay well actually we can extend

SPEAKER_13: the analogy uh all the investors who got hit by the instacart baseball then went out and back to trump which was a bench clearing dugout clearing moment and then we all had big scrap in the middle of the baseball field and home plate is democracy or something sure um anyways lena khan took it took a lap

SPEAKER_23: and uh jason does not agree all right well it's not just me by the way vino kosla i mean everybody was like and you know you got to ask she wants to be that she has that main character energy that i talk about um and i put producer oliver on a new uh project which is to just get us the main character every day

SPEAKER_17: and when we every day at two o'clock in our dock at slack room he's going to talk about the main character so we can be up on this she has that main character energy so i think she's looking for a job

SPEAKER_00: where she's going to run for office and when you run for office you want to make sure you try to recontextualize your tenure and i am not going to allow her to do that i am going to ride her

SPEAKER_22: every time she slings this and correct the record as long as you bring the same

SPEAKER_13: microscopic analysis and and nicknames to the trump administration i have you're i mean i'm bulls

SPEAKER_15: and strikes come on man i mean i literally the whole administration is like and even jay jason

SPEAKER_121: galli had is like their position on me is like oh my god we have to pay attention to this guy

SPEAKER_01: well no i don't i mean no offense to the white house you know when you're hitting the right note in my mind as a moderate independent when both sides are equally contemptuous of you right i think of

SPEAKER_00: anybody in public life is there somebody in public life alex right now as a voice and i'll just

SPEAKER_01: characterize myself as a minor one who both sides hate is there somebody both sides hate more right now

SPEAKER_51: uh um bob villain the the uk rap punk group that everyone crapped on for a while there

SPEAKER_01: that's such a deep pull none of us know it is there somebody you know of no like a commentator joe rogan megan galli well no besties i mean pick somebody who is um is there anybody who's moderate anyway the bulwark guy tim miller is he moderate i don't know i mean he's very moderate

SPEAKER_69: for the current era and i would say is he hated by both sides i don't know i think he seems to be he's too he's too well he's nice he's well spoken so i don't think the left has any beef with people

SPEAKER_13: i i feel like here it's an impossible question to answer because it depends on what you consider to be people things people are mad at but i think the only example is the new york times which everyone hates

SPEAKER_23: i think you're right because the new york times now and cnn are both trying to get closer to the middle um yeah if you watch cnn they edit that guy who's like the full right-wing guy who just demolishes everybody who's like a socialist every time they come on i forgot his name i don't i don't

SPEAKER_24: watch tv so i don't know i just know it from the clips on twitter but there's a guy on cnn who is kind of famous for dunking um one of our producers we'll ask producer claude to pull this up for us

SPEAKER_91: but there is anyways i think the times is a good example of someone that uh everyone's mad about uh

SPEAKER_13: mad at all the times because my in my feed people on the left are accused of the gaza situation i guess well they tend to write headlines that they on the left think uh minimizes from whence the bullets come and uh people on the right uh accusing them of being too coddling towards uh palestinians so you end up there anyways let's keep moving on yes um do you want to talk about meta or the end of the early

SPEAKER_140: career job market um hmm so why don't we do meta first because i think i think that is kind of

SPEAKER_23: interesting because there was that viral screenshot that i sent you uh over the weekend and i asked you

SPEAKER_47: to use producer claude and your own uh abilities uh and strategies to just make sure that this wasn't cap as the young folks would say that this is legit so pull up that chart and just walk us through and

SPEAKER_142: you know tell us what's going on here yeah so this is a chart uh a table actually that shows a lot of

SPEAKER_13: information about the purported new meta super intelligence team this was shared um i saw it from dd das from menlo vc uh dd is becoming one of the more prolific venture posters i think we could say jason uh he's leaning into sharing things that give attention to him and his firm totally fine uh but when you see a chart like this a table like this menlo menlo yeah uh when you see a uh a table like this you want to go look at the information behind it and not just take it whole cloth so oliver and i along with our dear friends at the ai model companies did some work work and we found some names from the list that we had made that were not on this list and vice versa so the actual answer is going to be somewhere between but we did find a total of 51 people that are now working at meta's asi team and jason it's too many names to go through so we did some uh aggregate data analysis before we do

SPEAKER_00: that let's just explain the table for people listening you have the name you have where they're from

SPEAKER_23: america israel french france i guess they're not using oh yeah okay american chinese brazilian and what you'll see in that third column that's the spicy part is the absolute extraordinary number of people who are chinese i guess in ethnicity or nationality two different things right you could have people who are chinese american in other words they're born in america and american citizens but they're of chinese origin or you could have their chinese and their citizens of china who are here on some sort of work visa then you have their tenure in days which is crazy uh why are we had years of experience i guess that's what that means current job prior roles expertise advanced degree undergrad degree and when you look at the advanced degree almost all of them have phds

SPEAKER_17: which is which is in purple that's what makes this chart super interesting so let's keep going so

SPEAKER_13: we bucketed these people that we could find and and fact check so china you're right does lead with 23 of the 51 that we could find uh following in number of frequency it's usa with 14 and then brazil russia india south africa with two and then other nations with people that made it to the meta asi team include france israel australia south korea germany and the uk now you mentioned phds so what fraction hold an advanced degree uh it's 80.3 percent now that i think this is both masters and phds but the gist is these are highly educated people who went through traditional educational channels uh the only person we could find who didn't go to college at all was daniel gross and alexander wang uh previously of scale ai uh dropped out of mit and they are both incredibly young they're in their

SPEAKER_17: 20s makes sense daniel gross is more of an entrepreneur than a computer scientist so he's a wild card on this list he's the joker's wild here uh and i mean that in the best possible way um and then you have people who are dropouts kind of thing 75 of phds 50 or so from china 75 are first generation immigrants so this is super important i think when we think about policy

SPEAKER_47: policy and recruitment uh which i keep bringing up had an interesting discussion with jd vance

SPEAKER_00: on stage uh just two weeks ago there's two ways to look at this data should we be concerned and i'm sure there are people in the state department who are that you have uh our adversaries our rivals in china making up 50 of this list of that group how many are spies just to say it bluntly how many are compromised and are spies now this sounds like xenophobic and dramatic there are people in our state department cia who are monitoring the communications and tracking these people i can guarantee you that not all of them but some of them and in fact these companies are probably tracking them and if you think that this is crazy just look at the history of twitter facebook microsoft finding spies within their ranks it happens all the time yeah saudi arabia for example got some people

SPEAKER_156: in to twitter back in the day famously yes north korea has been placing well actually not spies but workers in a number of companies as well which i think they were doing just for the just for the

SPEAKER_47: salaries because they literally need hard currency yeah they need money so but here it's like a very

SPEAKER_23: nuanced point because also what the chinese government does uh according to reports i've read is they compromise these folks by going to their family members who are still in china and they put spirits now lest we pretend that the united states are angels in any of this or israel is or germany is or france we all do this we're all compromising people and planting people we've got plants in china russia everywhere so this isn't like a one-way thing everybody's planting people everywhere

SPEAKER_00: everybody's spying on everybody but you do have to think wow the majority of the team at the majority of the team in meta's ai group the super intelligence group is either from china

SPEAKER_47: or of chinese origin this means two things one what's going on with our education system two uh

SPEAKER_00: uh if we are in competition who is the loyalty for each of these people too uh and the knowing how

SPEAKER_47: aggressive the chinese are uh in these matters this is a massive red flag and i'm not saying that in any xenophobic way i know some people might take it that way it's just the game on the field that the

SPEAKER_23: two rivals happen to be chinese and american that's it i'm not bringing up the other folks on this list from brazil or wherever because there's like one from each country i mean russia would be the other one i would be concerned about because they are rivals and obviously you know we don't have a rivalry

SPEAKER_22: with brazil and australia at the moment we do with russia and china how many russians were on the list

SPEAKER_132: any it used to be two okay two according to four percent i i just love i love dd the the vc who shows on twitter he did a follow-up tweet and he says source colon anonymous meta employee yeah i love it

SPEAKER_13: um the search for what uh the chart that we're talking about that we tried to verify so on the on the point about china though we do have a little bit of information that makes it clear uh where these people did their education so for example the most common university that we found was the shanghai jiotong university and um i'm so sorry to everyone who speaks mandarin i'm going to ruin this but it's the take your best shot xinghua university in beijing these are all words that i've read in my head 48 000 times but i've never had to say live on a podcast uh mit3 and then we have nanjing and nankai universities coming in uh basically fourth and fifth so it really does seem that chinese universities are generating a simply amazing number of high caliber ai talent now your point about should we worry that it's half yeah i i actually i'm not worried in this case because there's a lot of folks that meta tried to go out and get and couldn't so this is not saying that 50 of the world's best ai talent is you know being um born and trained in china versus the united states for example it's that 50 of the people that meta managed to hire for this team do have a chinese

SPEAKER_15: background well you know and every time we find um a spicy topic like this my mind immediately goes to

SPEAKER_00: new products and services based on the insights right and so based on my insights here i think the most

SPEAKER_17: interesting thing you could do is figure out what is the shortest period of time you could make somebody into a super intelligence qualified person going to a research lab uh and one of these universities get your phd is one path that's a seven year eight year path um can we do it in two and if we did it in

SPEAKER_00: two how and so this dovetails with some of the uh discussions we're going to have about mentorship in the end and that was in my uh nostrikanis presentation i did last week which was the end of apprenticeships and somebody could pull up that slide the end of apprenticeships is a really

SPEAKER_17: interesting moment in time and uh generation tool belt which we've talked about here countless times

SPEAKER_23: who's going to mentor people to this level of excellence and then my second point is if you did make

SPEAKER_34: that university i wonder if you made that university oliver you can bring that up if you want uh that slide although we don't have to even show it it's just very basic slide um if you do produce that

SPEAKER_24: level of talent you have a pipeline for it yeah is ai going to become super intelligent by that time and all these people are going to be worth like a nickel well i guess you could say that the race

SPEAKER_179: to asi could be very expensive in terms of human capital but then the race to asi at the end once we

SPEAKER_21: reach the finish line we'll take all that human capital and render it useless so that well said that's

SPEAKER_23: kind of what i'm getting at is that you could just literally if these folks do their job the reward is

SPEAKER_13: a pink slip yeah interesting here's the uh here's your slide jason and then i have a chart for everyone but here's what you had in your latest kpmg nostrikanis presentation oh it's as i nostrikanis and i'm

SPEAKER_185: sounding like dracula i gotta work on this it's as i nostrikanis i want that's much better less less

SPEAKER_24: vampire vibes but yeah i said ai could be in the end of entry level junior associate jobs a partner at a promising law firm told me this is andrew yang former presidential candidate ai is now doing work

SPEAKER_17: that used to be done by first and third year associates yeah and i can generate motion a motion in an hour that might take an associate a week and the work is better someone should tell the folks applying to law school right now and i actually was my kpmg speaking gig i was talking with somebody who

SPEAKER_23: worked at a university which is the lowest cost law degree you can get at 13 000 a year and i challenged

SPEAKER_17: them to say and i don't know is lost with three years i guess law school's three yeah yeah although people say it doesn't need to be got it so that's 36k i was just challenging the person and other people

SPEAKER_00: in the room can we do it for 10 of that cost could you with ai train somebody to be a lawyer a lawyer for 13k so if you are out there and you want to build this product i will give you your first 125k if it's just you and you get three founders together all of you can code or design three people who build uh maybe one of you has a law degree and some domain expertise but you don't need to have it actually you just get that from advisors if somebody presents me with those three people and you have a plan or an experiment to get a law degree to a person for thirteen thousand dollars i will back that experiment knowing how insane and how much the system will fight it and the odds are only ten percent that we'll ever make this work because god knows those accredited university can try and stop you but basically what you want to be able to do is have that thirteen thousand dollars prepare somebody a thirteen thousand dollar education prepare somebody to take the

SPEAKER_23: the bar and pass the bar in under i want it to be done in two years so in one year less

SPEAKER_47: for ten percent of the price do you want actually half price how about half price i wouldn't even go to ten percent half price which would be 36 is i divided by two so like let's just say 15k

SPEAKER_201: yeah for 15k and two years you pass the bar build that product or service one of my one of my best

SPEAKER_13: friends is a startup lawyer and he's based here in uh rhode island and he uh i think co-owns the practice do you want me to drag him on to explain to us how hard that would be no okay i want to

SPEAKER_00: bring the person who i can tell me how to get it done everybody's gonna fight this especially people who are part of the machine they always want to fight this they're you know like they're going to be the

SPEAKER_23: uh the the red cells where's the white blood cells what takes uh the the white blood cells kills things

SPEAKER_75: yeah yeah they're the white blood cells that will try to kill this idea i need somebody who's a

David Friedberg: lunatic who thinks it's possible oh that's why i that's why i was thinking of my friend because i think he'd be i think he'd love this oh he would okay we'd run it by him and then maybe we'll bring one okay if he if if he's gonna tell me why it can't be done i know why i know all those arguments jason i i

SPEAKER_13: know you well enough to not pitch someone coming on to tell you no um because that would be boring also anyways this is this is the chart that i wanted yeah this is the number of ai publications by year by country and china's had a bit of a lead for a while uh and then um the us is growing and india has also seen a pretty good uptick i think that what this shows is that some of the public metrics that are associated with uh intellectual progress aren't so good and an example of this is who has always had the most patents jason it's ibm how pertinent is ibm to this also i used to work for a guy who worked at salesforce and he described for me how that company goes about getting patents and i lost all respect for that process so i i think that here's what i'll get finishing about you oh just proofs in the pudding i mean right now we are in a two and a half horse race the us is the absolute lead in closed source ai china is the absolute lead in open source ai and then mistral and france

SPEAKER_23: is doing both okay now if we pull this chart up again yeah yeah dump that chart into producer claude

SPEAKER_24: and ask producer claude to get the data for this and put it against uh population which is to say

SPEAKER_23: the number of ai publications by year by country by population per capita per cap ai papers per year by country yeah because india has three times the population of the us at 1.44

SPEAKER_47: china is at 1.4 billion people they have three times the population of the us and they have let's see we're at 30 and they're at 80 so they have about three times as much india has less

SPEAKER_23: right so this is a hard one for an llm to do right now but uh if we could get that final years what i would like to see is the final year 2024 the final year's date if we can source it against per capita that actually would speak volumes then we would know on a per capita basis how many of these elite you know pursuits we have and then you this is what i this is why i always like

SPEAKER_17: when we look at europe to do the statistics of unicorns by country uh by capita it's really interesting

SPEAKER_13: per capita unicorns so we talked a lot about power laws you know and uh how you know if you were an early stage investor in figma that probably returned your fund because it did so well you know good stuff think about the the the incremental value of an ai paper right the average paper and then think about the value of the real seminal ones like for example attention is all you need that kicked off the llm revolution um it's uh it's it just shows that volume is not everything now producer claude points out that the nations that have the highest per capita uh when it comes to research papers here are singapore switzerland denmark sweden finland so what we're seeing here is what i call the small country effect yeah when you only have 25 people if you do two papers you look like you're a world-class

SPEAKER_223: research hub we should set a floor of 100 million probably yeah i would set the floor at 50

SPEAKER_47: million 30 30 million i'd say that 30 million because if you do 30 million you take out switzerland denmark sweden well sweden's at 35 everything you take out norway you take out netherlands you'll leave the united kingdom you leave australia yeah 30 is a number but you also take out israel with

SPEAKER_13: whatever six to nine million people israel always punches above its technological weight uh but china was only ranked 21st in per capita ai publications the u.s was ranked uh 17th according to producer claude

SPEAKER_21: so it's interesting to see how that kind of dilutes under a larger population uh i'll just say this how great is producer claude i just want to give a shout out to our new producer producer because for

SPEAKER_23: deep research this would have taken like a producer a day or a half day to kind of find this information

SPEAKER_47: on the web and then you know distill it down and now we can do it in real time it just shows you where we're at as a uh and and just like that producer claude updates with the request of less than 30 million

SPEAKER_13: thank you to our partner producer claude this is from producer claude this shows ai publications by country in 2024 and this is only with countries that have more than 30 million people and this is a per capita number so uh notably notably the uk has the highest number of ai publications per 100 000 people at about oh jason what's that 13 then canada at around 10 or 11. germany france south korea then the us and then italy which i made fun of earlier japan spain and then china so

SPEAKER_232: it appears that per capita quite the quite the different data set yeah and you know the quality

SPEAKER_24: of then now the next level to peel the onion would be like the quality of these like there must be and

SPEAKER_00: you it's above you and ice pay grade but the quality of the citation like maybe the you know the maybe there's a country in there getting citations for something that's nonsensical right

SPEAKER_17: or just not relevant or not a highly cited publication who knows what the benchmark for that is let's continue on in our docket that's a really interesting a lot of interesting things to think about with regard to immigration and what we're seeing in terms of our own countries it means we

SPEAKER_00: need to get more of these people to the u.s and make them aligned with u.s values get them to assimilate assimilate trigger warning for socialist libs assimilate means take on american values and bring some of your own values to the melting pot which was a concept that will also be triggering to some

SPEAKER_104: people that when we all bring a little something to the soup it's a better soup uh jason i want to

SPEAKER_13: grab the wheel here for a second and just talk about byd because uh we were looking at a story about byd imports of evs into brazil and we have a whole bunch of information about that we can talk about that if you want but i want to say an llm point here i was pulling information from byd's investor relation website figuring out how many cars they sell overseas that are electric and i got lazy and i didn't want to do my own chart and so i literally just had in my case um chat gpt i'm like can you just chart this data set for me and look at what it made for me jason it's so cute this speaking of time saving this is a better chart than i could have made in uh google sheets and it took me about three seconds it didn't make the uh y-axis the way i wanted it to so i told us to change the wax start at zero i changed the headline via a prompt and here it is like this is all right this is a really

SPEAKER_92: interesting story this company byd is making incredibly cheap sexy cars that i probably wouldn't

SPEAKER_23: put my family in yet because of safety concerns the last thing chinese producers are interested in is safety the number one thing they're interested in is cost and number two and number three are cost so do not trust any chinese product for anything that requires a lot of safety i would have red flags up they have a different view of this culturally and in business it's kind of like that would be like trusting people in the 60s and 70s in the u.s when they're making like or maybe the 50s and 60s

SPEAKER_22: in the u.s when they're giving you advice on cigarettes and baby formula like uh here we go so here

SPEAKER_242: is um let's just play the video okay over 7 000 chinese evs just showed up in brazil but here's the twist they didn't get unloaded they drove off the ship themselves seriously a few days ago this giant ship pulled into itajai port byd's own ship the shenzhen it's 200 meters long 38 meters wide basically a 60-story building on water but the real shock it carried 7 292 electric cars all made in china not parts not containers a full-blown ev army dock workers were like this isn't shipping this is a landing and no cranes were used the ship has ramps front back both sides it's called ro ro roll on roll off the cars just drive off in a line about 100 cars per hour like leaving a parking garage so why go all out because byd's brazil factory isn't ready yet and instead of waiting they said fine we'll build ships and deliver cars ourselves other car companies use shipping firms byd they built a fleet and shenzhen that's just the start more are coming changsha xian eight ships total a full-on ev navy this isn't just exporting cars it's china saying we don't just make cars we control the road and the sea now here's the real question if a byd ev pulled up in your city would you drive one comment below down

SPEAKER_15: okay so can i can i fill in some gaps here please because you know i saw this video and i'm like is

SPEAKER_00: this real or cgi i sent it to uh junior producer oliver and i was like get on this just i'm busy i don't know if this is true or not and i think we found out that this is actually true okay so not true

SPEAKER_234: nearly all true there's many facts in there jason there's there you can't it's not a blanket statement

SPEAKER_13: so here's what here's here's what we found out first of all yes byd owns a lot of boats they own six currently with a total capacity of 45 600 or 7 600 cars per on average they are adding two more to bring their fleet up to eight and those will have an average capacity of 8 100. so yes byd owns its own fleet yes they are large yes they are going around the world now is byd exporting in volume to brazil yes they actually exported quite a lot of cars in i believe it was june because the ev terrace for imported vehicles were going to rise the next month so they shipped a lot of cars there is byd not making cars in brazil not anymore this is now wrong because byd's brazil factory as of i believe early july has put out their first quote byd dolphin mini so they are now also building cars domestically inside the brazilian market now one more claim what about the cars driving themselves off are they all self-driving cars i could find no corroborating information for that particular claim uh anywhere so i do not know if they are self-driving off the cars but yes to the navy yes to the exports no to the brazil can't make them and uh unknown on the self-driving there you go jason uh pull up the yang

SPEAKER_75: wang yang wang u8 this is or the yang wang su u9 yang wang u9 u9 this is like the craziest thing they

SPEAKER_17: produce they're trying to get into the supercar space which is essentially when you know you're in like the top of the line ferrari lamborghini bugatti million dollar supercar race and this is their ev version which looks like a corvette that kind of ran into a tesla model s and then has a mclaren wing on the back basically yeah and so you know they're they're playing to win i think that

SPEAKER_00: thing costs a quarter million dollars us that's it supercars typically start at 500 to a million the

SPEAKER_17: new if you pull up the zora uh which is the new corvette that this is the corvette i think i'm gonna get i'll show it to you i've been wanting to get a new corvette so it's the zr1x which they call the zora it just finished the nuremberg zr1 and set the record corvette zr1x when you see this beast of a car

SPEAKER_00: she pretty oh yeah i'm gonna get this i need to have a place to keep it that's not the ranch because driving a low profile like this on my ranch is gonna destroy it but i've been hankering for a new

SPEAKER_21: this is what you should buy while we're doing the car talk here have you seen the mclaren senna

SPEAKER_34: i don't know i've seen the original mclaren those are like 250 i think i have a couple friends who

SPEAKER_179: had them i'm trying to find a good picture of the senna the senna is their um essentially their

SPEAKER_13: fastest track day car uh it's basically all the f1 tech you can fit into a um their website surprises mclaren fix your website so you have better shots of your cars uh but here's a picture of the center i'll just pull up this one uh so you can see it this is the car that i would buy if i was going through my future midlife crisis right now please yeah oh wow look at that that is she's the most

SPEAKER_59: gorgeous car of all time they didn't make that many of them of course because that's a track car yeah

SPEAKER_13: but you can drive it on the road that's the thing it's essentially like a speedy track car

SPEAKER_23: but you can also drive it out and about and austin's flat right yeah no no no i mean it you you could drive it you know what most people do with the corvettes and i had the e-ray the the folks over uh chevy sent

SPEAKER_24: me an e-ray to play with for a couple weeks i loved it uh and that's what got me like you know back into wanting to own a sports car before i die uh so i can zip around a bit and have some fun um but you

SPEAKER_17: need a lift you have to put a lift on it so most people will lower their cars yes these new supercars are slow so low that there's a lift button that you can add for like three grand that's stock it's

SPEAKER_34: an option basically so you lift it up a little bit so yeah this is a contender i like that just i'm

SPEAKER_13: getting worried about you don't know if you're gonna raise fun five third act of my life and then you

SPEAKER_17: just said before i die like i mean i mean what's going on man i just am acutely aware uh through you know tragedies in my home life where i've had friends die too young that i just think about it

SPEAKER_00: now um that we're all and i should have been thinking about it younger but hey the folly of youth i just think man there's a certain number of years left here and i've probably got less years in front of me than behind me i don't think i'm gonna make it to 108 and less science so if i have less years gotta make them great and i probably have equal number of adult years right and i got you know i've been pretty pretty darn lucky in this life so you start to do calculations like there's um you know like your retirement account calculation and like how much money do you need and it's like rule of four percent coming out of your principle and every time i run those simulations they're like and i think about my current lifestyle and how i spend and it's like you're gonna be dead with a

SPEAKER_17: lot and i'm like okay what if i spent three times as much as i am used to spending and it's like still gonna have a bucket low left and i'm like jesus i gotta spend more money and i'm so cheap that you know i drive a model y i love that car it's my favorite car ever i drive a model y and i typically keep my car seven years but if you're gonna be you know we're not gonna be driving much longer i might as well have something i like i'm also i'm gonna buy um i decided i'm gonna buy 1969

SPEAKER_142: pull this up 1969 corvette stingray so this this is uh what i call a long nose car like this car is

SPEAKER_130: like it's like enough room for like you know so much engine oh they don't make those and i'm gonna drive

SPEAKER_23: it to i'm gonna buy it to drive it so i'm not looking for matching numbers i'm not looking for i'm looking for perfect suspension perfect engine drivable i don't care if the numbers match i don't care if it's the original engine or tranny prefer it to be a new one i think they call it a resto mod um yeah yeah you restore it and modify it i would like it to have that aesthetics i think that might be the most beautiful car i've ever seen let's get back to the docket here first yeah where the hell how do we end up in anyways well the byd thing i wanted to point out because it does dovetail with

SPEAKER_24: tariffs um and protectionism and ambition china's ambition is to own all cars on the globe america

SPEAKER_23: needs to think this through europe's gonna block byds i'm sure of it there are reports that byd is going to be available in the eu like 2028 they're going to block this to the idea of having cars that cost half as much and are like this well built like the same way japan and south korea and china

SPEAKER_24: are very um protectionist in letting you bring cars there singapore as well the united states is

SPEAKER_47: just going to have to reciprocate with this or else there will not be a u.s car industry and there certainly will not be a german european car industry there will be there will be because fiat jason is

SPEAKER_13: building the next uh hypercar let me show you what they're building who i present fiat i present to you the future of supercars it's the fiat toppolino come on man i don't i want this so badly look at

SPEAKER_273: that it's a go-kart okay i mean okay for europe and you're going to dinner yeah totally fine that's

SPEAKER_10: got to cost 15k i'm taking it it's like 15 or 20. it's a reprise of the fiat jolly which is a car back

SPEAKER_13: in the day yeah yeah yeah but you couldn't get the fiat jollies unless you knew people because they were rare and so they brought back the fun aesthetic for the ev era i live in a city with small roads i

SPEAKER_263: don't live in texas so that car is perfect here's the problem with that car i've been watching some

SPEAKER_17: safety videos online you know your kids i want to like live as long as possible yada yada that car

SPEAKER_00: are when a you know suv or truck hits you from behind you're dead so true now if everybody drove those then we would be living in a disney bumper car world and that'd be fine there is an argument on small islands in small towns to only let those cars in i think it's a genius idea if you lived in kawaii or sardinia whatever just say the maximum weight of cars is x every car has to be this amount and trucks can drive from 11 p.m till 6 a.m in the city on these roads but everything else is golf carts you could purposely make roads for that uh but man the ambition of this company byd the fact that they want to build their own shipping cars and driving people off of them just shows the ambition i do think it also speaks to how quickly we're going to have autonomous cars and how quickly ride sharing is going to ascend and i am completely diversified folks i have plenty of investments in

SPEAKER_17: all the players across many different vehicles uh like financial vehicles so i'm not speaking my book with uber but when you look at volkswagen and and you look at we ride and pony

SPEAKER_23: uid tesla waymo man there's so many people going after this there's so many cars that are going to be produced all right everybody that's another amazing episode of this week in startups if you

SPEAKER_24: want to participate in the docket creation go to thisweekinstartups.com docket follow at twi startups if you really help me when you see us tweet the docket for the day or the day before here or the morning of here's what we're going to talk about we'd love to get you in the replies telling us hey i'd love to hear alex and jason comment on this or want to comment on that give us what you want us to talk about because it's a slow month in august we need a couple things to talk about although gosh it's been kind of crazy we'll see he's at alex i'm at jason we all have four or five character

SPEAKER_75: twitter handles that tells you everything you need to know old school ogs see you next time bye-bye boys bye