SPEAKER_01: All right, everybody, we've got a great Wednesday show for you today.

SPEAKER_00: First up, the blueprint is back. This is episode eight of 10. And it's my strategy for finding and developing future all stars, Molly.

SPEAKER_02: Love it. I love it. You are a talent spotter, no doubt. And then speaking of spotting talent, you know, it was great. Mark German of Bloomberg, the Apple expert over at Bloomberg joins us. He's the guy, of course, who had the scoop about the Apple trademarks about its glasses and what they might be called. He's also going to break down when he thinks we're going to see those glasses and spoiler alert is pretty soon.

SPEAKER_07: All right. Yeah, we set some lines. And he has a great idea for who should buy Peloton that blew Molly and I away just really some great insights from Mark, who brings the heat. It's going to be a great show. Stick with us.

SPEAKER_09: This week in startups is brought to you by Visa. Are you a small business owner? Did you know that Visa's online small business

SPEAKER_11: hub has tools, discounts and resources to help you run your business? Learn more at visa.com slash small business hub. Brave is an internet privacy company on a mission to protect your personal info online. Download brave today at brave.com slash twist to browse faster, search privately and so much more all in a single click and LinkedIn jobs. A business is only as strong as its people. And every hire matters. Post your first job for free at LinkedIn.com slash twist.

SPEAKER_15: Hey, everybody, welcome back to the blueprint. This is part eight of

SPEAKER_16: our 10 part quick hit miniseries. These are segments based on what I've learned myself over trying to be a high performer and be successful in my life. But three decades of being a journalist, a podcast host and an angel investor in over 300 companies and watching people who are better than me, do their jobs and create great things in the world. You pick up a lot just watching high performers. And I'm trying to summarize this to you in little 10 minute segments. Hopefully you learn something here that could change your life, maybe reframe how you look at your career, how you're building your company, how you're building your portfolio. And let's get right into it. There's really no

SPEAKER_17: reason to delay what we're going to talk about. If you want to see all 10 of these mini series, if you want to see all 10 of these episodes, go to this week in startups.com slash the blueprint, very simple this week in startups.com slash the blueprint. Okay. So today, I want to talk about

SPEAKER_16: drafting and developing future all stars. In other words, developing talent, I'm using, of course, a metaphor from the NBA here. And the reason I'm doing that is because we don't expect people who are coming out of the draft to immediately win a championship in your company. And having all stars at your company is increasingly difficult in today's environment. Why is it difficult to have a lot of all stars? Well, there's competition for those all stars. So if there's somebody who's an extraordinary sales executive, they're an extraordinary designer, they're an extraordinary operations person, extraordinary investor, an extraordinary marketer, extraordinary developer, right down the line, there's going to be a competition for their services. And there's always somebody who is going to be able to pay more, or give more freedom, responsibility, or an interesting project to those all stars. In other words, all stars, they're hard to come by. That's why in the NBA, you see all stars be able to demand trades, and to go wherever they want, essentially, and they get paid a pretty penny. Now, if you draft and you develop young talent, and I say young, not necessarily by age, but by how much they know about the skills and the techniques that you need to deploy to finish projects and to run your company, well, you might find yourself in this talent exchange, getting a little bit of loyalty and being able to keep people around and have great producers working for you. Now I have had some of the great entrepreneurs out there in the world work for me, whether it was at Silicon Alley Reporter, Shani Jardin, who went on to Boing Boing, Rafat Ali, who went on to do paid content and skiff, Brian Alvey, who went on and I was working at WordPress, running WordPress VIP, just tons of talented people have come to work for me and then gone on to other things. Now, how do I do that? People always ask me, I'm going to give you my playbook right now. And this is a playbook I've run over and over and over again, whether it's at Inside Launch, This Week in Startups, Mahalo, Weblogs Inc, Silicon Alley Reporter before that. And it really starts with hiring. Now when you're hiring, you can

SPEAKER_15: hire opportunistically, or specifically. Now when I talk about hiring specifically, what I'm talking about is you're looking for somebody with a very specific skills, skill set at the top of their game to solve a problem for you. Now, this is a valid thing to do. But what most people don't do is that

SPEAKER_16: first part, they don't hire opportunistically, what does it mean to hire opportunistically? Well, let me give you an example. Examples matter, right? So let's say you're running a podcast like This Week in

SPEAKER_15: Startups. And you know, you have certain aspects of running a podcast that you need to constantly have

SPEAKER_17: people doing right, you have to resource the podcast properly. So one of them is obviously, audio and video editing, right? You need video editors to make clips, and you probably need a social media person, right? To share those clips on social media and engage with people, you're going to need somebody to sell ads, somebody to manage the ads and make sure that the advertisers are successful. And of course, you need producers, right? But guests, you may need hosts as well. So do you hire those six positions? I think I just talked about? Do you hire people who are with domain expertise in each? You might, and that might be valid. In fact, when we wanted to have a new host here to co host with me, because six days a week, what if I get sick? If I ever take

SPEAKER_24: a vacation, it's a lot of pressure to have a daily show on the internet for an hour every day,

SPEAKER_16: six days a week, 300 times a year, or more. And so I went specifically for somebody incredibly high end. And I hired very specifically, I recruited Molly Wood, right? She had a huge track record, you all know and love her. And she brought a little bit of audience with her probably a lot of audience and really a lot of expertise. So that was an example of me hiring specifically. Now, you could also hire opportunistically. How do you do that? Well, you're hiring people who have some of the skill sets, but maybe can learn multiple. It turns out selling ads and doing ad management

SPEAKER_20: and doing social media. Those are all very similar doing video editing, audio editing, producing a

SPEAKER_24: smart person can do all those things. In fact, if you're a great video editor, there's no reason you

SPEAKER_17: can't make clips and do social. And if you can sell ads is no reason you couldn't produce here. Not that we have those two functions overlap. But the truth is the right people can learn new skills

SPEAKER_24: quickly. And I've talked about learning new skills quickly and the value of that and other blueprint episodes. And again, you can find those at this weekend startups.com slash the blueprint. So

SPEAKER_15: here's what you do. If you want to hire opportunistically, you put out four job descriptions, you put out five job descriptions, and then you put them at different levels. And then people in your organization going, Hey, wait, are we I don't understand? Are we hiring a senior video editor? Or are we hiring a junior video editor? Or we're hiring a video editor? Are we hiring somebody with zero to two years experience, three to five, or six or more? We're hiring somebody at 50k 60k 70k people in your organization want to know because they want to please you write the hiring team. And what you say is, tell me what comes in, tell me who is super impressive, right? That's hiring opportunistically, you're going to put out many job posts. And then you know, the people who have to run the podcast are running that unit might say, What are we doing here? So you got to get them to buy into hiring opportunistically, he says, Listen, we can hire senior people. Sure. But we might have to wait six months for one of them to come loose. In fact,

SPEAKER_24: it took a year or two to, you know, from when I first said, Hey, Molly, you ever thinking? She told me she was saying about venture capital. And I said, Hey, you know, when are you thinking about maybe you want to come work with us or something? Maybe we could work together on the podcast. And she had a contract within a, you know, marketplace, she wanted to honor it. I understood that. And so I was playing the long game there. But we were looking for producers. And sure enough, producer Rachel showed up. And she had done as I famously talked about in this podcast, Oh, producer Rachel had

SPEAKER_17: done her own podcast with another small incubator or something. And you know, she had chutzpah, and she had grit, and she had knowledge, and most of all motivation to be great. And so we brought her in, she produced, we gave her a segment. That's okay, boomer, people love it. And so there you have an opportunistic hire, producer Rachel. And then you have an all star hire, very specifically Molly. Now, could Rachel become Mollywood? Sure, it may take her five years. And now I've got Molly able to and myself able to mentor Rachel, right? So that's opportunistic. And in the example of producer Rachel, she's helped us produce the show, do social media, do community, and in fact, do ad management. She's done four or five jobs here. And that is amazing. So let's talk a little bit more about how you then develop that talent. You've put out the job descriptions, you found somebody smart, maybe they don't have five years experience in anything, but they're showing you something they're motivated, right? And man, a motivated person who knows how to learn and has a low to intermediate skill level, they will beat a highly skilled person who is not motivated or do as well as them. Nine times out of 10. I kid you not. And you know what, my friend Draymond Green from the Warriors talks all the time about how he was drafted in the second round, he knows all the people who were drafted ahead of him, and he wants it more. And he did a great video recently where he

SPEAKER_16: talked about hustle. And he talked about one of the great skills in life. And in basketball, in fact, is not just your ability to play defense or play offense or dunk or hit threes, all those important things. It's your ability to want it more. It's your ability in minute, you know, 3540, 45, if you're in overtime, or whatever, minute 50, if you're in overtime, your ability to maintain your ambition and motivation, your grit and your energy when other people trail off. And I see that all the time, I see people get to hour 456 in the day, and they stopped working. And then I've seen other people that hit 678 hours a day, and they're just getting started. And they put that extra two hours in at the end of the day, maybe they put their kids to bed, it's you know, nighttime, instead of watching some Netflix, they go sharpen their blade or get better at their skills. So this is point number two. So point number one, higher opportunistically versus hiring specifically, get a group of people in and start developing your talent. Okay, so how do we develop that talent? Let's say you drafted people who you think are motivated and hardworking. Okay, well, you want them to do tours of service. You want to rotate staff from department to department, and you want to monitor their progress when you do that. Why? Well, if you can see how

SPEAKER_17: somebody takes on a new challenge and how they learn and they can learn holistically about the whole business, then they're going to know the why behind you do things, why you do things. So somebody like producer Rachel, great example is producing this very show this being startups, and she picks some news stories, she pitches them to the hosts of the show, she writes them up, knows how to bullet point them. And then Molly says, Hey, you know, this is the most important point, you left it out, these two points you put up top, they're kind of obvious, you can take one out, you put one at the bottom, and you want to tighten up how we frame this, you get some learning there on producing. And then you understand how ads work and why they're important and what the advertisers understand, hey, now you're building a mental model as an employee of the entire podcasting business and ecosystem. Okay, I know how the advertising side works. I know how producing stories works. Oh, and how do we market the podcast? Okay, now I learned that and they learn from different people. And maybe if there's, let's just call it five functions to building a rate podcast, all of a sudden, if a person has done three tours of duty and gotten to 40 50 60%

SPEAKER_16: proficiency, my Lord, they're starting to understand the totality of building a great product. And for the right person that builds ownership that builds pride in work, they haven't been pigeonholed. And because they haven't been pigeonholed, they get more confident. So if they take you and the chef says,

SPEAKER_17: you can spend your first year, and this is a tradition, making rice at the sushi bar, or you can make the tamago, you know, the beautiful egg omelet, they'll make you make the tamago for two years in some sadistic, like, you know, you have to scrub the floors, you know, way, oh, you have to just cut the vegetables. And then maybe I'll let you make the salad at the salad station, but you're not touching the dressing kid, that kind of sadistic, crazy stuff. I don't believe in that. I think that

SPEAKER_16: that kills the spirit of people more than it helps them learn quickly. And at a startup, you want

SPEAKER_17: people to learn quickly, you want people if we're going to go back to the basketball analogy, you want them to learn how to play defense, you want them to learn how to shoot the three, you want them to learn how

SPEAKER_24: that when they're in for their 30th or 40th minute, they're doing really well. And I would rather see in if I was running a restaurant, I'd rather see that person who's coming in to work at the restaurant. Yeah, okay. Work service. Okay, yeah, you're going to be the major, you're going to work with the major day and see people and reception. Okay, yeah, you're going to now I'm going to have

SPEAKER_16: you do the dishwasher station, I'm going to have you the dessert station, I'm going to have you understand why people come to this restaurant, and how it all comes together, like in a symphony, right? This would be like taking an actor and having them work with the script writers, having the script writers, maybe do a table read or act out a scene. So they can see that their own language is clumsy, right? That's a really super important thing. Are you a small business owner? Did you know

SPEAKER_00: that Visa's online small business hub has tools, discounts, and resources to help you run your business? So whether you're a business beginner, or an entrepreneurial expert, find the solutions, tools and tips you need to help take your business to the next level. Plus, if you have a visa business credit card or debit card, you can get access to cardholder benefits like visa savings edge, a savings program which can help you save on everyday business expenses like office essentials, travel and more. When you enroll your visa business card in visa savings edge, you'll have access to valuable offers which can help turn qualifying business purchases made with your enrolled visa business card into savings for your business. Learn more at visa.com slash small business hub. Once again, that's visa.com slash small business business hub visa, a network working for everyone. Now I've talked previously about a right first

SPEAKER_16: culture, and my system of accountability, we call the start of day, end of day and end of week reports, I'll just recap them here very briefly, a right first culture is what companies like Amazon pioneered, which is write something down. Rather than doing a PowerPoint rather than talking just write it down.

SPEAKER_17: And if you're in the age of Coda notion, and all these and remote work, writing stuff down is a fantastic way to codified and clarify thinking. And then at the beginning of the day, you're having your cup of coffee, hopefully, and you're this week in startups, Yeti Tumblr. You say this is what I'm going to try to accomplish today. And at the end of the day, you reply to that and say this is what I accomplished and you do it in front of your whole team. Now, yes, chef, who we can see who high performers are. And when you're developing talent, it's like you're getting a report back Steve Kerr, somebody says, Yeah, this person shot 100 three pointers, you know, 200 three pointers. And here is their statistics over time. Yeah, look, their percentage went down when they hit, you know, 123 pointers, and you say, Okay, yeah, this person needs to hit the weight room, they need a little more muscle, so they don't get fatigued. Or you look at their speed, and you're saying, Hey, you know what, this person needs to go a little faster, maybe we need to put them on a diet, drop five pounds, and you know, get some more explosiveness. Those kind of reports, self reporting,

SPEAKER_16: third priority coaching, active coaching, deliberate practice, that whole category of work increases performance. Now, point number four, you're got to be willing to give people assignments that are beyond their ability and be okay with the fact that they might fall on their face. Steve Kerr might put somebody into the lineup and say, Yeah, okay. Yeah, God, LeBron. Yeah, go ahead, do it. Yeah, guard Kevin Durant, guard, whoever the hardest player on the other team is. And you might say, Well, this is crazy. Well, that's how people become great is they are given assignments that are way above their ability. And that gives them a chance to shine, it gives them a chance to push themselves. So if you tell the person, Yeah, okay, listen, you're in the kitchen here. Go ahead, make the souffle. Go ahead, tough guy. So easy to make perfect scallops. Go ahead. And if you ever watch any Gordon Ramsey show, put people on the front line, let them make the scallops. And you know, chef's going to look at the scallops as they're going out. So you have to be willing to be an active mentor to do these techniques. You can't be a passive person. If you hire great talent, you hire Molly Wood, you hire

SPEAKER_24: some legendary developer. Yeah, you can set it and forget it. They're going to do a great job. They've got 20 years experience, you have 30 years experience, you know, that is one way to go. But that's not

SPEAKER_16: what we're talking about today. Today, we're talking just about developing talent. So you have to put them on assignments, right? I talked about rotating them around. I talked about them taking ownership, you know, and you're doing deliberate coaching, but you also have to give them big, beefy assignments

SPEAKER_17: and see not only if they can fish, but if they can find techniques about fishing and how to become a better fisher, fisher, I guess I guess a fisherman, fisher person, a person who fishes a fish collector in the sea, you have to go teach them not only how to fish, but that they need to go on and say, Hey, maybe there's better methods for fishing that my boss doesn't even know. So I'm going to go on YouTube, I'm going to go on Google and do that. And in fact, I literally do this, we have like some great segments here on the show, like we live in the future. And I'm like, Hey, find me stuff. That's really cool. And you know what, I wasn't finding enough of that stuff. And I said, Hey, find me, you know, little big things, things that are really clever, smaller product things. And I showed people by pulling up my browser and doing a search going to Reddit, going to hacker news,

SPEAKER_16: going to Twitter, and I showed them how I construct my searches, how I use advanced searches to search only in the last 30 days, only in the last seven days to find interesting things. Once you start

SPEAKER_17: teaching people your techniques of learning, they will hold themselves accountable, and they'll find more interesting things. So it's very important, when you give them those big problems that you check

SPEAKER_16: in with them, those big projects and or problems, you check in with them, and you tell them how you would approach the problem, because they're going to hit a roadblock, they haven't done it before.

SPEAKER_17: So yeah, dump them in the deep end of the pool, you know, let them and take in a big gulp of water, you know, hopefully they don't drown, but you got to be ready to jump in there with them, you got to be ready to get in there, roll up your sleeves and teach them. And it's not just talking to

SPEAKER_16: them and telling them what the output is, of course, you have to tell them what the outcome that you're looking for is, but you got to tell them the techniques that you would use and your process your thought process for solving those problems. Now, finally, let's say you hire five of these ambitious folks from the draft, right? And you're going to develop talent, if you're

SPEAKER_17: developing talent, you're taking risk. And that means most of the talent you recruit are not going to make it. Let me say that again, most are not going to make it because you're taking chances. So every every time you know, you find a great producer, Rachel, or producer Nick, there's going to be three other names that are not going to stay. So out of five, five hires, when you're developing from the draft, I expect that you will have two, one to become meaningful contributors. Now you're like, Jake, how this is a sign of failure, that you would hire five people and have three not make it. No, when you're drafting, if you were drafting as an NBA team, and you had two of your five draft picks become meaningful contributors in the NBA, you would be very excited about that. You know, on average overall. Now, what happens to the other three? Well, one of them might leave

SPEAKER_16: voluntarily, they don't want to do the job, they don't want to be in the NBA, they don't want to

SPEAKER_17: work as a chef, or they want to work, you know, at some other restaurant or, you know, on some other

SPEAKER_24: basketball team. And it's not your choice that they left, they left voluntarily. But then the other two, you're probably going to have to cut. Now, why are you going to cut them? Well, because if you're

SPEAKER_17: drafting people, and they're unknown talent, the reasons I typically say is that people don't want to put an all star, you need to do work. God given talent, innate talent is incredibly, incredibly

SPEAKER_16: overrated. Let me state that again, innate talent is overrated. Hard work, deliberate practice,

SPEAKER_17: learning, and challenging yourself. That's how great, great players are made. And sadly, not everybody is cut out to work at a startup, or play in the NBA, they would be better served,

SPEAKER_16: and they would enjoy more having a nine to five. This is one of the classic riffs I see all the time,

SPEAKER_17: and the anti hustle culture versus the hustle culture movements. What's hustle culture, you see Gary V, or maybe me talking about, hey, hard work pays off, work hard, crush it, yada, yada, yada. All

SPEAKER_16: that can leave a bad taste in some people's mouths, because they don't get their value in life from what the people who are pursuing their careers. And that's okay. There are some people who get value in their life from their families, primarily, or their friends, or their experiences, or the art they make, or the art they consume, or any number of things. Some people get it from resting and sleeping. There are some cultures where people value their downtime, more than they value their careers. There are individuals who value their downtime doing nothing more than doing something. There are some people who love their hobbies, more than doing their jobs, or doing nothing and leisure. So not everybody's cut from the same cloth. And that's totally fine. All of the advice you're hearing on this week in startups is for people building companies, funding them, building them, and who are enthusiastic about changing the world and working hard to do that. In fact, being competitive with other teams, just like anybody in the NBA, there are people in the NBA who just want to stay in the NBA, get their next contract, and they don't actually care about winning. Some people might say James Harden, you know, gets paid huge salary. Maybe some people say Westbrook, right? They seemingly are great players, but they haven't become Steph Curry, Draymond Green, LeBron James, Michael Jordan level talents, even though they could be. I'm not singling out those two people for any specific reason, other than they are MVP caliber players who just have not had a winning career, winning careers, take that extra amount of effort. And you know, who knows their

SPEAKER_17: careers aren't over. So maybe they will hit it. This is the realization I've had over time is really it's about drafting great talent, training them, holding them accountable, giving them assignments

SPEAKER_16: way beyond their ability, and being willing to cut the people who maybe don't make it.

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SPEAKER_16: slash twist. Now if you do this consistently over time, there is an amazing payoff, an amazing, extraordinary payoff, you will get a reputation for being one of those bosses that if you go to work there, when you move on to your next adventure, whether it be starting your own company or business

SPEAKER_17: or working for another business, people will say, Oh, you work for Jason Calacanis. Oh, you work for Elon. Oh, you work for Travis. Oh, you survive that. Oh, we know that that's an intense place to work. We know you were given great responsibility, and then people will want to hire you. So that's what will then get more people to want to come play in your program. They'll want to come work at Noma, that crazy restaurant, you know, in in Copenhagen. I've been to

SPEAKER_24: it actually twice. It's quite nice. Thank you, Tyler. Shout out insights from Tyler who invited me to go

SPEAKER_17: there. People will go there and work for well under any reasonable salary living on their own savings, just to have the experience of working at Noma, because they're so passionate, and they've got such development. And when you get known for developing talent, man, the talent wants to work with you. The other thing is you build a level of excitement inside your organization, a winning culture where everybody's pushing themselves really hard to be the best version of themselves and to be as successful as possible. You'll also get some loyalty. Because people say, you know what, this is, this is where I belong. I belong here, I belong in a place where people are given chances, and people are judged based on, you know, not where they came from, or their degree, or, you know, their theatrics, aesthetics, you know, how charismatic they are, whatever, just based

SPEAKER_16: on the work they do, right, they get judged based on their ability, and their effort. And that really will build long term loyalty in your organization, you'll start seeing people who you develop as talent, be willing to stick around three, four or five years, six years, seven years, even, and that is

SPEAKER_17: very rare in today's environment is very rare. In each subsequent generation, as the business world becomes more dynamic, people stay at jobs for shorter stints. And there's nothing you can do

SPEAKER_16: about that. Nowadays, a four year stints a long stint. When I was coming up as a Gen Xer, they said,

SPEAKER_24: do not have anything on your resume under four years, or you'll look like you'll never be able to work because people think you're too flighty. I regularly have people and I hire them who do 18 months, 30 months, a year, it didn't work out six months, I didn't realize I didn't like it, the boss was a jerk, people do not just quietly suffer, I can appreciate that, right? If they don't think the job's right for them, they'll move on. And you know, listen, it's your job as an employer, as somebody leading a company to make it a place where it's staying. And so a final note on that is you're

SPEAKER_16: going to have to realize that if you develop talent at this level, you're going to have to have opportunities for them to grow into higher positions and have their salaries raised. And if you don't, they can go somewhere else. Now, you can always have that discussion with your team

SPEAKER_24: members. Listen, if you come here, you work for me, you're always going to be able to get a plus 10%, a plus 20% offer. Here's how compensation works here. Here's how you'll look over five years. And that's just really important to tell people, hey, here is your career path. So if you're going to develop talent, you want to have a career path. In other words, hey, listen, you're a rookie,

SPEAKER_17: we're going to train you up, we expect you to work hard, you'll get some minutes in the G League. And then we'll start getting you some minutes, people might call them junk minutes, we'll get you some minutes and some assignments, you know, you get that five to 10 minutes in the real games. And then if you do your job, you know, starting position, or, you know, coming right off the bench in that six, seventh, eighth, ninth position, you know, you'll get some rotation minutes, right? It's just got to be clear with people. And you know, there can be log jams, you could, you know, in a basketball team, you have 15 seats, you know, most people keep the rotation to nine or 10 players, some people even make it shorter, like eight players, but you know, 10 players are going to get to play in every game, nine players are going to play. And then you have five people who have do not play, some will be on the injury reserve list, you're gonna have to convince those people that it's worth it to put the effort in and be ready, you know, when they're in practice, hopefully, you build an organization, because it's not like basketball, you only have five people on the court at a time where everybody can make meaningful contributions. I've been working on that a lot is making sure people know, hey, listen, even if you're new here, if you're an associate, if you're a researcher, you can still meet with companies in our investment team, like a principal or a managing director could be right. So try to make it so there are no roadblocks for people. And you're gonna have to just keep up with their comp if they really do well, you know, and you're hired them out of school for 50k, you can't put them on a 4% raise,

SPEAKER_24: you know, and give them 2k extra, you know, you might have to give a 5 or 10k raise, you might have to give a 10% raise, you might have to give a 15% raise, you might have to give a 20% raise at some point. And that might be hard for some people to conceptualize, wait a second, I hired this person, and I'm giving a 15% raise a 10% raise, that seems crazy. Well, as I talked about in another

SPEAKER_17: blueprint, sometimes you have to go out and find out on the other side as the talent what you're worth. And if somebody doesn't want to give you starter minutes, and another team does if somebody doesn't want to give you a contract or can't give you a contract because they're over the salary cap, and they're just spending too much money doesn't make financial sense, then you may have to go to another team and get that reward. So be prepared. If you develop talent that you may develop them

SPEAKER_16: so well, that they go start their own company, and just be at peace with that. I'm at peace with that. Because I've had many people who I've developed other people love to poach my people, totally fine. I'm always drafting new players, and I'm always developing talent. So if somebody gets poached, I can't tell you how many times I've had boomerang employees, they go work somewhere, they got poached, they got a 10 20% better offer. And I said, Listen, yeah, go do it. It's fine with me,

SPEAKER_24: you know, I've had people get offered like by crazy startups that raised a bunch of money double what I was paying them. And I'm like, Yeah, definitely take it. I just tell them about take it. And I had that person come back. And I was like, Okay, you know, it's like, yeah, this company was a show. Right? Anyway, there it is the blueprint for today, developing talent. Thanks

SPEAKER_17: for tuning in to part eight of the blueprint. Remember, we're back with new blueprint episodes every Wednesday until we hit 10. And so you can go to this weekend startups.com slash the blueprint

SPEAKER_24: and thanks to our sponsors for supporting this segment on this weekend startups.

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SPEAKER_07: for free at linkedin.com slash twist. Again, if you want to get it for free, you go to linkedin.com slash twist to post your job for free terms and conditions of course apply, because they're giving you something for free. All right, Molly, one of our favorite journalists is back on the program

SPEAKER_57: because it's been a lot of news in the AR VR space. So why don't you why don't you tee it up

SPEAKER_02: for everybody? Exactly. Welcome back Mark Gurman of Bloomberg covers Apple and consumer tech and hardware was is basically Bloomberg's Apple guru always getting the scoops. Welcome back to the show Mark and we have you on ahead of an Apple event where even though we don't think there's going to be a VR AR announcement, we would love your take because we're hoping it's something more than just another dang phone. I can't get excited about a phone. You know, I was thinking about

SPEAKER_65: coming on here and pulling a Calacanets and telling everyone I actually have

SPEAKER_68: the Apple network. Yeah, try to give some feedback and review it a bit. But enjoy your last day at Bloomberg. Yeah, it was I was I was warned against that. So I'll stay away from that. But yeah, next week, the iPhone 14. This iPhone 13 in front of me will be replaced with something that looks a

SPEAKER_65: little similar for very similar in about two weeks or so. So but it'll be worthless. Once that new one

SPEAKER_71: comes out, this thing is a piece of crap. Why do I even have it? Pretty much no, but you know,

SPEAKER_65: should be some good updates for those on who want to get the pro phones. Not going to be a big update

SPEAKER_74: to the regular iPhone 14. But of course, and I think we talked about this before, there's not going to be an iPhone 14 mini this year. Instead, there's going to be an iPhone Pro Max size regular iPhone 14, which I think will do quite well. Big updates the Apple Watch across the board. Now I know you're talking about XR, AR, VR, SR, whatever you want to call it, there'll be none of that next week, right? So the Apple reality headset, the reality pro reality one, whatever they end up calling it, that's not going to be shown, probably until first half of the next year. So lots of stuff over the next six months, this is probably going to be the biggest next six months of Apple news that I could

SPEAKER_07: remember. My big question is, and I just bought 1000 shares of Apple, because I j traded them because I thought, I think they're going to win AR VR. I know they're gonna win it. I'm convinced. But I want to take it through my thinking. And then tell me if I made a good trade or not. It's not investment advice. Apple, I believe is going to announce these headsets, they do what three announcements per year on average, three keynotes. Yeah, about three. Yeah. So they're not going to announce this year. I think we all agree. That's consensus. So now they're going to start making announcements, I believe, in, I don't know, the next six, I would say out of the next six, they're going to be talking about AR VR in, you know, three or four of those starting sometime next year. So I think there's a 50% chance that they bring this up, you know, maybe 60 70%. Yes, they bring it up next year. What do you think the chances are they announce or show hardware? And if we say there are six new keynotes coming 123 and 23 and then four or five, six, where would you put the over under on the

SPEAKER_57: first announcement in the next six keynotes starting in 2020?

SPEAKER_87: Uh, the over under on which number keynote over the next six would we see hardware? Yeah, two, two. Oh,

Jason Calacanis: okay. Wow. Oh, really? So you think they'll announce the hardware as soon as 2023? In the second

SPEAKER_92: keynote of 2023? In the second keynote of 2023? That's my over under, right? And so I would say one

SPEAKER_74: Oh, so two is the line one or two is the line. It won't go past two, based on chase the way Jason outlined it. Like if you look at, let's say there's three keynotes. Yeah, it'll be it'll be

SPEAKER_01: by the second keynote for sure. Well, will it exist? Because usually they announced up when you can

SPEAKER_74: pre I'll say if it's not by if I'm wrong about tubing line, that means something went very wrong. And not for me for Apple. So yes, I would, it would be very surprised if that was not the case, in terms of when it would actually be released, probably a little later in the year, it was supposed to come out already. It was supposed to come out last year. And then that was pushed back to coming out this year. And that was pushed back again to next year. So we're already on the third or fourth launch attempt through this thing. I don't know if you guys saw my story over the weekend about trademarks. So this is an interesting story. I, you know, I was pointed to these trademarks that were filed by a shell company. And then did some more research, went to the website belonging to Delaware's government website where you can look up in corporations, search the corporation name, went to it, you have to pay 20 bucks to get the the agent information about who registered the corporation. Shocker, another shell company registered the Apple corporation. So it's sort of just like, you know, keep going and going, going, going, you're never going to find Apple as the origin of the trademark. But I can tell you it is Apple. And so I raced to get that story out. I was working on it. I was on the East Coast last week. So past 1am on Saturday night, I know, really fun. Finally was able to get that out Sunday. And thank God it exploded because I put a lot of work into it. But this is confirmation of something I already knew that this headset was going to be called the Apple reality. And we have two sort of suffixes for that Apple reality one and Apple reality pro. I don't know this for sure. But based on everything I know about the first headset, I believe the first headset will be called the Apple reality pro, I think Apple reality one is either a backup name, right, a secondary option, or that would be the name of sort of a subsequent headset, maybe a base model, right? Because the initial headset, I know Calacana says Apple is going to win, it is going to take them some time though, right? Because price conscientiousness, the first Apple headset is going to be between two and $3,000, where you have meta at sub 500 right now. And it's going to take quite a bit of time for Apple to get to that sub 500 price point, if ever, right, I find it hard to believe that given the trajectory of iPhone pricing, that XR pricing for Apple will ever get into that range. So I think they'll want to sit at the high end. But I think this first headset is where Apple sort of outlines its platform, right, they have the hardware, they get app developers interested, they build this entire ecosystem in this app store, in this development kit for the headset. And then once you start getting into gen two, which they're already well into development of gen two of the headset, that should come out in about two years, that might be a bit cheaper, I think you're going to see way more people pull onto that. And then subsequently, the third generation, that's probably going to be the augmented reality glasses. That's the real game changer. That's actually where Apple wants to go. That technology is not going to be available for mass market for probably three to four years minimum. But Apple can't just sit around twiddling its thumbs. And so what it's going to spend the next three years doing is building that ecosystem and building that platform. So the day the AR glasses come out, you have three years of consumer education, you have technology improving, you have the supply chain nailed down, and you have that full ecosystem. Imagine if the iPhone in 2007 launched with 2 million apps, or that full ecosystem behind it, and the full breadth of supply chain behind it, the iPhone didn't have that sort of preceding product, the sort of gain to come on top of whereas these AR glasses, that's sort of going to be the pinnacle of

SPEAKER_87: the Apple XR strategy, right? And that will be good and ready to go. I got to say, Apple reality,

SPEAKER_02: one or pro, whichever one has so many wonderful things going for it, because it combines reality distortion field, a joke we've all been making for like 20 something years. And as Nick points out, Apple reality also shortens to AR, I'm just saying it works on every level, right? Works on every level.

SPEAKER_68: Yeah, yeah. And I think it will be the reality pro because of high of how high end this headset is

SPEAKER_74: going to be, it's gonna have the same processor that you get inside of a MacBook Pro. Today, the M2, it's also on the Mac care, really an additional processor day. Yeah, so it's the it's the M2 is 16 gigs of RAM, plus what according to this trademark is going to be called the reality processor, which is a sort of a co processor to do a lot of the AR and VR functionality on its own standalone chip. Just like in the iPhone today, you have the main a 16 chip, or that will be in the iPhone 14. But there's a block in these chips that they've had for years, that does the dedicated processor for AI, right, and ml and all that. And so these headsets will have that dedicated chip as well. You know, people who've used the headsets that I've spoken to pro early prototypes, the main differentiator is the quality of the displays, probably going to be 8k displays, super high resolution, they spent a lot of time on the speaker system, the sound system. And so it's going to be a real

SPEAKER_65: lifelike, us maybe even a scarily lifelike experience. So that's why spatial audio has

SPEAKER_07: been such a focus for them, because I was that's where spatial audio comes from, right, those big chunky over ear headsets. I don't know what they call them Apple Pro. Yeah, the AirPods Max. Yeah,

SPEAKER_82: terrible name because AirPods go in your ear. I don't really call them AirPods. But, you know,

SPEAKER_07: they don't look great either. Yeah. I mean, you look like the guy from Empire Strikes Back, uh, who was pretty much cloud city, you know, he's got pretty much Nick made me put them on.

SPEAKER_122: So you can have a word with him there. No, they look great on you. Um, they're super heavy. And I

SPEAKER_123: tried, you know, I was like, I want to hear this spatial audio. And I started trying to find on Apple

SPEAKER_07: music, the spatial audio. I wasn't super impressed. I couldn't find like Pink Floyd or anything or dire straights. I was like trying to have a great experience. But I guess maybe music that's adapted for spatial audio will not be as good as experiences designed with spatial audio,

SPEAKER_68: you know, and you're actually spatial video, and spatial spatial video, right? I think that's sort

SPEAKER_74: of going to be the intersection where you have your spatial audio, and they have this spatial video, and it all plays in together is going to be amazing. I really think it's going to be amazing. Uh, but it's going to be very expensive for many people. We're talking about plug it in, we need to

SPEAKER_65: plug it in, or it's going to be standalone. It's going to be standalone. I don't know how great

SPEAKER_74: the battery life is going to be. The initial initial version, when they started working on this six years ago, from the very beginning, their site was to make the highest end highest performing VR AR headset on the market. And getting that technology into a place where it can be standalone and not plugged into anything is very difficult. They originally started off like wanting to plug it into an external device or an external processor or a phone with a cable, then, you know, by 2017, 2018, they wanted to have a device that had a standalone mode, and a super high powered mode, and to enable the super high powered mode, sort of the intense functionality we're talking about, they were going to sell a device about the size of a Mac mini for a Mac studio, with a Wi Fi technology called Wi gig. I'm not sure that's very mainstream at this point, that you would buy to keep in your home within a 30, yeah, 30 to 50 foot distance or such. And the high end processing would be done on that machine. And then all the encoding and all that would transfer over to the headset, over these Wi gig networks over your home networks. Johnny I before he left Apple, one of the, you know, last major moments for him at Apple product wise, was sort of standing, putting his body in front of that Apple does not ship a product that requires a second product in order to get your full functionality for it. Right. And so there was a debate internally between him, and Tim Cook, and Mike Rockwell, who is he used to work at, where did he work Dolby, right, and they do a lot of audio video stuff. He's in charge of the Apple initiatives now on AR VR. And there was this whole debate. And this headset that ships is going to be fully standalone, and you're going to get that high

SPEAKER_143: power in there. And well, this is Molly, you know, you think about the m1 and the m2, you know,

SPEAKER_07: you're like, Why are they going so crazy with this m1 and m2? These things seem overpowered for laptops, we're like, now the battery life is 20 hours, the processors absurd. And you're like, wow, they're really focused on chips, to a level that it doesn't seem like the laptop is coming anywhere near using that m2 chip, like they're like, unless you're a video editor, or you're making 3d models. Nobody browsing in a safari browser is using anywhere near that power. And now we know. And you look at the

SPEAKER_02: display, you're like, it starts to draw a lot. I mean, like you just pointed out to with the spatial audio, it starts to draw a lot of development together when you realize that this was a timeline

SPEAKER_121: all along are there. Fascinating. And the m2 chip was developed from the beginning. Their line of sight

SPEAKER_74: was that this chip would be for the mixed reality headset. And that's why you see a lot of the power there. And, you know, the core technology, it's actually amazing, the same core technology that they're using for these chips spans from the Apple watch, and then it'll span all the way up to this headset, and their highest end max. But don't be surprised in a few years from now, when the Apple car is powered by a chip with the same underlying technology. So in a sense, you know, the Apple chip division, you know, is really the core of the company at this point, it's probably their Amazon.

SPEAKER_152: Right? It's like their Amazon. It's their North. It's a good way to put it. Yeah. Yeah. North

SPEAKER_74: star. And so that's, that's really powering everything. And, you know, I spoken to many people at Apple who believe that they're head of their chip division, you know, could be their next CEO. For many reasons, practically speaking, I don't think that would ever happen. But I think the point people are trying to make is the importance of that chip unit to the company.

Jason Calacanis: Fascinating. Hey, we want to I want to ask you a question on a completely separate note.

SPEAKER_02: Sure, as you've been covering Apple for a long time, you really understand consumer hardware. we have been having this ongoing conversation about Peloton. And whether Apple might ever buy Peloton because they share a look, they share customer base, we really want someone to rescue

SPEAKER_160: Peloton. You're shaking your head already. I don't think so. I mean, if you look at the market cap,

SPEAKER_74: obviously, past history is no indicator of, you know, what someone will do in the future. But Peloton's market cap would probably make it its most expensive acquisition to date. So that's one piece of evidence against that. Apple already has fitness plus and has invested 10s of millions in that. And it's been getting pretty good. They have their studios there. So they really have no reason for a content based acquisition of Peloton. And if you look at the hardware, Peloton has essentially nothing that's proprietary, Apple could, you know, rig together a Peloton competitor in six months and put Peloton out of business with spending less money than it would take to buy the company. So I see zero practical reason to buy Peloton. Now, who do I think should buy Peloton? That's another question. I think it's Netflix. Personally, I think that was has an extra wildcard. Yeah, that's, that's, that's my opinion. Let me just give you my opinion on Netflix. Yeah, I think Netflix. It's brand is basically on par with Xerox or Kleenex. And they have been very unsuccessful in expanding beyond their core competency, which with inflation and as other services come out, they're actually raising prices well becoming less valuable over time. And I think Peloton or Netflix could have done a much better job expanding into areas like music. Gaming so far has been, I don't know if it's been a failure, but it's had very limited success for them. News and other forms of media, they have not made that subscription

SPEAKER_65: more valuable podcasting, whereas podcasting, right. So they have done, I would say they've done a terrible job making their subscription more valuable and expanding the company. So one trick. And so it's a one trick pony. Now, if they decided to wake up one morning and decide they no longer want

SPEAKER_74: to be a one trick pony, making a content based acquisition of Peloton, and taking over the Peloton digital app, and putting Peloton within their Netflix app or whatnot on their TVs and such, and really building on the digital non hardware section of Peloton, I think that could make the Netflix subscription much more valuable. And if I were Netflix, I would, the first minute the papers

SPEAKER_65: are signed, completely shut off Peloton hardware and just put that just shut down that business

SPEAKER_128: immediately. Or you can open source and let other people do it. The number one thing people ask for on their Peloton, and those are built on the Android operating system is the ability to put Netflix on

SPEAKER_07: it. And I understand why they don't let you do that you have this giant screen on the Peloton tread, really big screens on the on the bikes as well. You'd be so dope to just sit there and watch Netflix.

SPEAKER_175: I don't think you can just turn off the hardware exactly like your HUD, and it would be amazing. And you

SPEAKER_07: start thinking about if Netflix had their own hardware, it will have their own collection, like you start to think about this collection of subscription assets, you know, like the New York Times with the athletic wire cutter, crosswords, they got like, you know, a little, a little collection there. So you may get some people who want the crossword, they stay for the news, they come for the news, and maybe they dabble in wire cutter, you get the idea that they buy the athletic, they get the other stuff. You get this like, less reason to churn, and it would be a great, you're right, imagine you turn on Netflix Peloton. And you like my Netflix account gives me yoga classes. Yep. Great. Yes, please.

Jason Calacanis: Such a good idea. I mean, that is not on the freaking genius. Nobody else. I have not heard this anywhere else. We're giving this all this is an exclusive German idea right here. I mean, I'm

SPEAKER_74: confused as to why it hasn't done it. I mean, it just makes it makes so much sense to me. There's so much talk about Amazon and Apple. That doesn't, I don't know, it doesn't make sense. Well, you know, Amazon,

SPEAKER_07: you know, would be has gotten better at hardware, like you look at Google and what they've done with hardware and how terrible they've done with Nest. You know, they say what you want, but the Kindle is a loved great product that's very refined Amazon Fire phone didn't work, but the tablets did okay.

SPEAKER_57: And then you, you know, you look at their ability to ship that product and install it,

SPEAKER_189: that would be like major in the ability to market TV stuff. Their TV is also you. It's, it's basically ubiquitous at this point. Yeah, right. Yeah. As well as their home is their home

SPEAKER_74: devices. So maybe there's a play there where Amazon supply chain, maybe more than six months ago could

SPEAKER_65: probably get these prices down and the efficiency up on pellet on equipment to a very good place, and then make the subscription part of prime, but make it part of prime and your goal is to not make money on

SPEAKER_07: the hardware. It's just to keep people from churning from prime and increase the value that okay, let me explain my my J bet to you my J trade. You tell me if I'm crazy. I came to the conclusion that the winner in this space is going to need to have incredible dexterity in terms of hardware,

SPEAKER_57: design, and an app store. I think we'd all agree that's what is going to win AR VR, right, you need to have great apps, great hardware, great design, you know, and supply chain is a subset of

SPEAKER_07: that. So if that is what we all believe you need to win, let's go through the three major players, Meta, Apple and Google. On a hardware basis, Meta is doing a pretty great job with the Oculus, and they've shipped a lot. But nobody beats Apple at hardware. So that's like, the Apple gets the checkbox there. And then you look at Google, and how they screwed up Nest. And, you know, like pixel and Chromebooks, they just never take it seriously. It's a hodgepodge, they don't have focus. So they're in third place on hardware, Apple's far and away number one meta somewhere between the two. Okay, now let's look at app stores. Apple's by far the number one app store. And that's where developers develop first. That's where they make the most money as you pointed out, Molly. And then Google's number two. And Facebook is not only has no relationship with developers, they have screwed so many times, so many developers over such a long history of time, they have the opposite, they have a terrible relationship with developers, they don't, they're not trusted by the development community. And then you look at how well is this thing design? Apple's just the queen and king of design like this, just nobody comes even close. I mean, and the pixel, I've had those Apple pixels, they're gore that the Google pixel gorgeous device. I've had the Chromebooks gorgeous. They have, they have, you know, flashes of great design, the nest has flashes of great design. So I put nest in Facebook, peer to peer. But that means to me is Apple's gonna run away with this. And if you just look at like four apps that you love most, Molly and I, we were talking about four apps, Molly.

SPEAKER_60: Mm hmm. What did you find Spotify? I had calm. No, I went Pinterest. We talked about Redfin,

SPEAKER_02: Redfin, calm calm. And then there was one more. Yeah, where you just would live inside that. And so

SPEAKER_07: you Yeah, I mean, if you take out your watch, you know, any developer who works in the Apple ecosystem has built a phone app, an iPad app and a watch app, if you're of note, and like the Peloton app does a great job of putting your heart rate on there. But imagine you go into calm, which, you know, I'm talking about book here a little bit, but and I don't have any inside information, but you can do some meditation in this incredible thing, and get the spatial audio and visual mind blowing. Now you

SPEAKER_186: imagine Redfin mark, you walk around houses and Redfin is this killer app. And now you're and then Pinterest Molly's I don't know what the pitch there is. But if if I'm in 3d space, and you and I are working on our pin board, and we're moving pins around. Yeah. And then we're planning a party

Jason Calacanis: together. We're decorating a room together. We're like, you're helping me hang my art because I'm

SPEAKER_02: like, does it look good over here? Is this area rug over here? Yeah, it's wonderful. It's wonderful.

SPEAKER_204: It's gonna take time, though, because it's gonna take a long time for all that, right?

SPEAKER_74: It's well, first of all, I don't know how long it's going to take to develop an app of that quality for that type of platform, right? Getting these things in developers hands. Yeah, I think this this future where you imagine Apple winning, I think that will happen, but it's going to take 510 years. Think about, you know, the cost of the iPhone coming down, you know, the lower end models and such. $3,000 is way too much money for 99% of people to buy a headset next year.

SPEAKER_211: Right? You're trying to buy one and you'll buy one. J trade is a 10 year trade. It's a 10 year trade. It's a buy and hold.

SPEAKER_07: Okay, let's do this. We'll wrap on this. Yep. Set the line on a mass market product price mark. You're good at gambling. I see maybe you play the ponies or maybe you've placed a sports bet before. So I like it. Blackjack. All right, great. So let's come up with, hey, what is the price that you're gonna, you know, uh, you're gonna stand at, you know, stand pat. What is the price that you think it becomes like the iPhone, the, you know, category defining product, it may not have the most market share, but you know, it's got that 3040. What is the iPhone market share in the US now? I think it might be

SPEAKER_219: 40 something to five. I think I mean, I think it may have actually typically it's much less

SPEAKER_07: than the US. Yeah, it's now up to 50 or something. So it seems to me the price of the iPhone versus Android doesn't matter to consumers because it's such value paying 1000 for an iPhone or 500 for

SPEAKER_222: Android that people don't care. Yeah, but we're talking 3000 for the Apple versus 500 for the meta.

SPEAKER_64: Right. So let's assume is your life. And the headset is your occasional hangout place,

SPEAKER_00: maybe but it could become your life. So just tell me Mark, what's the number? What's the line? The number you think is the magic price where people will say $500 Oculus, I'll spend whatever percent

SPEAKER_186: to get the Apple. So where because Apple charges a premium, and it's a premium product. So where would

SPEAKER_128: people not care and 30% of people would pick the Apple product over the other options? Yeah,

SPEAKER_225: what's the matter? Most they could charge without losing market share. And we're talking for the VR

SPEAKER_07: headset, not the AR glasses. Yeah, we'll go with VR for now the three year window here. So we're here sitting here three years from now the mass market, people go to the store. 1500 is the magic

SPEAKER_65: number. Okay, so like a lot. Yes, I'm trying. I was originally thinking game consoles, obviously was the

SPEAKER_87: PS5 600 700. Right. That's not I was thinking double that. Right. So perfect. Probably 1500.

SPEAKER_07: Love it. Yeah, I think I think the number is going to be 12 to 1400 was where I was going to say, this becomes like a no brainer. It provides enough value. It's exciting enough. People buy it and keep it for three years. And it's $1 a day. I always think about $1 a day price. Like people, when I think about iPhones, you know, if you buy, I think I spent 1400 on my last one, because I bought the max memory. And I'm I know I can set trade it in for 500. So it's really costing me 900. I keep it for two years. I'm a little bit baller. You know, maybe I keep for 18 months, but whatever, it's costing me $2 a day. I think for an average civilian, you want to get to that dollar a day. If you're not treating yourself, right? When you're at a dollar a day, people don't care because they're like, I bought a Starbucks for four bucks every day, who cares about a dollar. And I think that headset would be $1 a day would be 1200. And if they let you finance it on the Apple

SPEAKER_02: card for $1 a day at 0% interest, you will do it. Mark Gurman. Scoop machine,

SPEAKER_68: you can find it on Bloomberg.com. Bloomberg.com follow Mark, give Mark's a can we give Mark some

SPEAKER_123: Twitter followers here? Like what's Mark Gurman? First name, my newsletter, Bloomberg.com slash power on.

SPEAKER_65: And you can find all the information there. Everyone gets at the same time. All right. Thank you.

SPEAKER_240: Thank you, sir. Thanks, Mark. Take care.

SPEAKER_128: All right, everybody. Thanks for listening. And stick around for tomorrow. We got an amazing

SPEAKER_02: interview. For sure gonna want to stick around tomorrow. We talked to the power law author, Sebastian Maliby gets a little rock back on his heels a little bit about after all those years he spent talking to investors, he gets a little lesson on what investors really think. It's a great

SPEAKER_07: it's a great conversation though about that. It's a good conversation and a really candid conversation. We even got into maybe even changing his mind about should you fund somebody like Adam

SPEAKER_246: Newman a second time. We'll see everybody tomorrow. Have a great day. Bye bye.