SPEAKER_02: let's talk about the sweaters okay let david let's start with you because i love it i love it

David Sacks: david i love that i decided to up my sweater game for chamath this is tom ford love it tom ford tom ford the buttons are made out of endangered rhino horn

SPEAKER_13: we just lost a third of the audience so my sweater is a very light italian cashmere made by a company called doriani doriani cashmere uh this i thought we weren't doing plugs for our

SPEAKER_16: start we're monetizing the all-in pod here we go dorian cashmere just got a free this right here

SPEAKER_20: this right here is a little young calf leather very soft very soft and the buttons uh like david's uh

SPEAKER_23: are made from shark fin and for those of you at home who would like to spend 150 and stay warm may i recommend the marine layer you can find it on union street jacket i mean how you can also find

SPEAKER_28: that jacket on turk street how tilted is sweater karen listening to this sweater karen if you're

SPEAKER_31: listening i mean you must never reveal sweater karen got back to me and she was like oh my god he's so tilted i think i know who she is sweater karen can kiss my brown ass oh so i jade comes home

SPEAKER_35: last night i kid you not she's like you i i don't like you in the t-shirts i got you some sweaters and

SPEAKER_36: i was you know we're going to the mountains for the for the holiday and i was like did you watch the podcast about the sweater she's like no i don't listen to your podcast i was like okay fair enough um and i'm like i'm looking at these things they're all in these boxes and she's got this bunch of

SPEAKER_34: sweaters i started open i was like what did you spend on this she said three thousand dollars i was like i'm not comfortable spending three thousand dollars on a sweater that's half a sweater let alone

SPEAKER_41: eight of them but you know it's three thousand for all yeah chamath is like is that a sleeve

SPEAKER_45: four buttons and a waistband that might be a vest for chamath i think that's the box the sweater came in with three thousand so i got my three quarters

SPEAKER_49: and i'm feeling good i'm feeling really good i feel pretty sexy in it i'll be honest

SPEAKER_42: hey everybody hey everybody welcome to the all in podcast yes breaking into the top 50 podcast week after week because of you the amazing audience telling your friends it's been two weeks so it's

SPEAKER_64: week and week all right week that's what i said week after week a weekend a week a weekend a week

SPEAKER_42: hitting the top 40 podcast episodes in the world thanks to the fans with me of course the dictator himself in a uh amazing sweater light light cashmere gilet the sultan of science i found out from his mom she much prefers the sultan of science to queen of quinoa so that's what we're going with going forward david friedberg who had a great party uh up in uh beep and i really enjoyed going and sax who didn't go to beep's party or to friedberg's party he stayed home and played chess on his iphone the rain man himself david sax welcome to the pod everybody okay you want my two new york stories

SPEAKER_78: one true bestie jason calacanis it's true no that's not true i i really wanted to come but

SPEAKER_79: that's breastfeeding and so i couldn't come the helipad was shut down chamoff couldn't land you

SPEAKER_85: were getting breastfed um there was like was there a curb your enthusiasm oh no it was um this great

SPEAKER_34: show called afterlife from ricky gervais there's literally a scene in it where a woman they work

SPEAKER_35: for a local newspaper that's going out of business and they're going to do local stories and the big story in town is a woman is making pudding uh incredibly delicious pudding and it's from her

SPEAKER_89: breast milk and they go and cover the story anyway i'll just leave it at that it's pretty amazing story do you want to know my two new york stories or not yeah let's hear it well you said you had a

SPEAKER_13: helicopter story what's that helicopter story helicopters also new york story so uh i uh went to deepdale to play golf with uh a certain well-known individual and uh we chopper we chop her back a

SPEAKER_101: finance individual uh politics well-known political individual oh okay so this is not a rock and roller

SPEAKER_102: you do not want to step foot in a helicopter with a rock and roll star no but so here so here's my story

SPEAKER_104: which is why i i totally freaked out about helicopters and i can't this was eight years ago we played deep dale which is just you know outside new york get in this the chopper lands in the middle of the thing i was like okay that's fine you know and we're going and i'm already feeling kind of skittish i don't

SPEAKER_107: like helicopters get to the east side heliport and the east side heliport is basically right by the east

Chamath Palihapitiya: river and so the helicopter descends and one of the skis doesn't actually land on the fucking oops thing and so it does a little tilty poops and then the guy comes back up and then he lands

SPEAKER_106: you i'm honestly like i have never been more scared in my life all right that's it and i was

SPEAKER_74: like that's the band never again i don't want any besties it's a bestie band for life we're making a pack here nobody in fucking it's crazy so that's why i'm on new york story net last new york story

SPEAKER_107: was i was there two days ago or for the last couple days in the middle of it in the middle of this omicron breakout uh by the way had a beautiful dinner uh after the game draymond kevin dread

Chamath Palihapitiya: me bunch of friends did you go to the game no we went to the private room in carbone

SPEAKER_107: it was so brutal though i have to tell you i feel so disgusting with myself i had a work dinner and i have sushi at the work dinner and then you know dre text after the game he's like hey we're all having dinner at carbone i said okay i'll head through i went to the hotel i called nat and i

Chamath Palihapitiya: said i'm brushing my teeth and she said but you're going out and i said yes but if i brush my teeth i'm not going to eat a second second dinner and i thought you know and then but i made a mistake but i didn't

SPEAKER_107: floss so i was unflossed but i brush my teeth okay i show up and i lose it and yes wine and dessert and it was really brutal and by 3 a.m i stumble home and i felt so bad because i had to wake up at like

SPEAKER_95: you know eight o'clock in the morning no my first meeting was at 7 45. well congratulations to

SPEAKER_104: stuff incredible no greatest shooter of all time he's a virtuoso yeah anyways that was my that was

SPEAKER_74: my new york story yeah i i gained you know here's my here's my one kilo i gained one kilo 2.2 pounds i gained in two days uh here's my carbone story hardest thing to the hardest reservation to get in

SPEAKER_42: new york sax is like jake i'll need help me a favor what's the best place in new york to do a closing dinner i'm like i got you i got my guy get my guy on the horn my guy's like okay i got you carbone friday night eight o'clock hardest ticket in new york you know what sax does it goes dark friday afternoon 1pm he's like yeah we're not gonna make it

SPEAKER_124: i'm like oh my god my friend is like jacal your guy burned the carbone res that was the bird ipo

SPEAKER_127: i was gonna take the founder out to dinner that night at carbone and then it turned into like the big group dinner with like 30 people so it moved over to well by the way the the the private

SPEAKER_107: room which is like you know not in the restaurant but it's like a little bit on the side it only fits like 15 20 people so it's not like you can and that's that's then it's really tight how well let me

SPEAKER_132: ask you a question what was stef's uh how did steph feel no steph wasn't there draymond kevin me

SPEAKER_95: benny fowler morale but just a bunch of us you say kevin kevin durant yeah

SPEAKER_134: kevin durant still huh friendly with uh he's honestly he's he's such a great guy i love kevin

SPEAKER_116: he really he is really really really agree she had stayed super super sensitive cool he's friends

SPEAKER_138: again with uh always always he's always i mean i think that when they had their blow up it was more

SPEAKER_102: like their brothers and it was just a little bit like when you started talking like joe pesci

SPEAKER_144: did kevin durant ever start talking about joe pesci heading inside baseball all right uh it was an eventful week on twitter we're only one week into the new twitter ceo's reign jack is gone and already

SPEAKER_146: david sachs has been flagged it's a guy it can't be a coincidence that you were talking about them flagging accounts at the end of free speech and then pull it up on the screen everybody

SPEAKER_36: investors should be spending their time finding good investments not endlessly debating interest rates inflation and tax policy but that's the uncertainty washington has created it's a great tweet

SPEAKER_42: uh i like that tweet actually and then the flag the conversation from sax has been flagged some

Chamath Palihapitiya: conversations can get heavy don't forget the human behind the screen do you think that this is that's machine learned or do you think that that's an editor that goes in there and actually just manually

SPEAKER_150: flags machine learned no i think that's a great question but what is but what is in there that

David Friedberg: actually triggers we're debating washington interest rates policy washington i'm not sure i'm not sure

SPEAKER_107: that you could build well maybe it's the ratio i don't i don't know how you would build a function that would weight this in a way where this could get flagged of all the things you could say with

SPEAKER_157: those words this is so benign well i think it's the kind of it seems to be this thing's trying to ward off bullying attacks on sacks which i don't think sacks needs to be too worried about all right

SPEAKER_158: because they're telling this to people who would reply you're saying it's there to protect me it's

SPEAKER_161: to protect you it's one of those things where they're like trying to get people to not insult you in the comments they're talking about maybe you get a lot do you get it do you get a lot of

SPEAKER_163: insults and comments on your tweets oh undoubtedly but so it could just be a blanket this tweet this

SPEAKER_127: this tweets comments section was pretty benign oh right it may not be about the tweet it might

SPEAKER_169: be about the replies so it might be that you're getting that hot this wasn't that hot i think

SPEAKER_171: jimoth might be onto something you know michelle tandler got the same label around the same day for a tweet that seemed totally innocuous too so what i wonder about is you know is this label to protect us or is it a way is it sort of a passive aggressive way for snowflakes at twitter to like label people they don't like and sort of suggest they're vaguely disreputable

SPEAKER_173: i don't think it's that i don't think it's all right it's a left-wing conspiracy it's a it's the it's the libs going after the the right sacks you're paranoid i haven't seen any liberals getting

SPEAKER_176: i haven't seen any like left-wing people there seems to be a blanket attempt at trying to kind of

SPEAKER_27: mute the tone a little bit across the the debating that happens and the comments that come across in the replies and i think they're just trying to like get everyone to tone it down a bit

SPEAKER_120: it'd be really interesting to know whether this was algorithmic or was editorial because i think if it's editorial it does actually i don't think it's as extreme as what david just said but it skews more in the realm of like people with an axe to grind can flag one thing over another or not right but if

SPEAKER_182: it's algorithmic i think that that algorithm probably just needs a lot of tweaking because

SPEAKER_183: it's not well anyway this doesn't it say that there's a person behind the tweet it's like trying to get people to not say kind of repugnant with the warning the warning is charming the

SPEAKER_187: warning's charming nice to each other it's ridiculous like your mom inserting herself and

SPEAKER_127: being like now remember it's it's there to suggest that there might be something wrong with the content

SPEAKER_126: that's being posted well you know in other words in other words the content is so triggering

SPEAKER_27: that you know it needs warning labels do you guys think that paternalism has a role on social networks to try and mollify the the kind of discourse being too acrimonious like i think

SPEAKER_127: we need some some of the transparency that jack dorsey repeatedly promised at all the congressional hearings remember when he got hauled up there he promised that they would give more transparency about the way that their algorithms worked where is that and it hasn't been delivered up they promised it

SPEAKER_169: now jack dorsey's skipped out of town and there's a new guy in charge uh well we need to know how these algorithms work because they are pressing their thumb on the scale you know of debate in the marketplace of ideas by suggesting that some ideas are sketchier than others they should just put here

SPEAKER_34: this was algorithmically done based on they should explain it under there should be a little question mark you hover the question mark based on the words in the thread it feels like things are getting

SPEAKER_194: heated here we did this with an algorithm or users reported this as a heated thread so we put this here or a human decided no we decided yeah but you want it to be an open marketplace of ideas but the

SPEAKER_27: fact is it's twitter's marketplace of ideas yeah and facebook's is facebook's marketplace of ideas and at the end of the day i don't think you're going to get away from any of these centralized social networks having anything but some degree of moderation to play a role in a related thing they didn't just

SPEAKER_197: target sacks also chamatha you didn't see this but uh they flagged one of your tweets uh just this

SPEAKER_88: afternoon pull it up as you can see here it's a slightly different one uh it says layers are for players this conversation will drift to five thousand dollar sweaters so a big warning for

SPEAKER_34: chamath to just and for the people replying be careful this is that that must be that must be then that must have been human uh you know human for sure and uh this one came in for prof g another one came in for prof g so and in this case i think they're actually trying to think about

SPEAKER_85: the public good this guy is full of he thought jc penny would beat amazon how many how many hours

SPEAKER_207: of master class adobe photoshop did you take to get this i didn't make these my meme team did i'm convinced that there's two ways to raise your next fund in silicon valley one have one of the top 50

SPEAKER_34: podcasts in the world or two have a strong meme game and i'm going for both sax now has a warning on his and this one they put on your profile page yeah this was crazy warning this person has

SPEAKER_188: interesting things to say if you if you're too interesting you get labeled now it's really crazy

SPEAKER_143: no i saw jaco i saw jacob having too much fun with this i'm like i gotta get in on this act

SPEAKER_147: you're like i need a meme team yeah exactly if anybody out there i don't care if you're i need a

SPEAKER_42: comedian i'm willing to pay on a paper meme a paper viral whatever it takes okay uh in a related story

SPEAKER_36: democrats want racial equity audits at tech companies according to the washington free beacon uh which sacks correct me if i'm wrong that's some sort of wacky right-wing uh publication uh never heard of it okay washington free beacon if instituted orders would have veto power over every product or initiative that's not an exaggeration is what the story says one proposal from house democrats would find companies 20 000 a day for not completing by any independent racial equity audits a left-wing non-profit called color of change is pushing for these audits last week their president called for independent auditors to vet new products from tech companies before they're released in front of congress 2018 color of change successfully pushed facebook into completing an audit they call for more restrictions on trump's posts close range itself pushed for trump to be permanently banned from

SPEAKER_120: the platform just so you know this is exactly the the rough version of what happened to microsoft in their doj settlement their antitrust settlement was effectively an oversight where lawyers at the doj were the product managers and had not effectively veto right but you had to approve product features before you could push them for 10 years you know this is essentially what caused bombers rain just be so you know in ominous is like you couldn't do anything because like you had you had a plan to do something and you'd have to go to these random folks who didn't really have the context to make a a decision one way or the other on feature so i mean the idea that they would do this is a pretty it's

SPEAKER_34: pretty crazy i need a point of clarification here i've heard the term uh racial audits or racial equity

SPEAKER_35: audits my understanding of those were to understand the composure of the company uh in terms of you know the diversity in the company but this is something different this is in the product to make

SPEAKER_34: sure the product isn't racist can products be racist what's an example of a product being racist

SPEAKER_127: i don't understand what they would find let me unpack this for you okay what they are basically saying is that these big companies and for example they've called on google to conduct one of these audits they want all these big companies to conduct these audits these so-called auditors are actually political consultants who are members of the democratic party who are friends of the centers who are pushing for this they're political activists it's a grift and it's partly a grift but it's more than that because you know when you conduct an audit let's just take this word audit for a second okay you bring in a big five accounting firm and they will check your numbers according to

SPEAKER_229: generally accepted accounting principles gap and make sure that the numbers are what you purported them to be that is the purpose of an audit and if the auditor ever says that you've done anything wrong like you have to fix it there's no choice or you can appeal to some other auditor and have them redo the work okay according to these generally accepted principles with an equity audit what exactly are the principles that are being enforced or checked here there is no generally accepted list

SPEAKER_169: of equity principles that must be enforced these companies basically you have to do whatever this political activist tells you to do i mean it's essentially like bringing in a party commissar to now take over the company or at least be inside the company telling the executives and officer of the company what to do it's something that frankly the ccp would do it does feel a little

SPEAKER_35: like uh yeah stasi like didn't we have all of the companies uh on their own from twitter to google

SPEAKER_234: to facebook release their own diversity stats years ago i think this is about more than diversity it's

SPEAKER_34: about equity it's about equity so so let's explain the difference in what that means this is somehow

SPEAKER_234: how the companies run like the day-to-day life of the employees they're not just the composure and the

SPEAKER_127: breakdown of the employees look equity equity means anything that progressives say it means we've seen on this program before how equity has jumped the shark there's now uh there's a provision in the infrastructure bill for tree equity so i mean really any disparity that occurs that progressives don't like can now be called a violation of equity and this gives them the authorization to come in there

SPEAKER_34: and start giving orders it's very weird that i don't understand how the product then review gets stopped is that meant to throttle you from leasing product as a punitive let me give you an example so

SPEAKER_127: recently you know i wrote a piece called the the no buy list where i basically you had companies like paypal and some of these other financial firms were starting to deny service to customers to users that are based on their political affiliations and not just like people who are in you know well-known hate groups that like everybody sort of you know issues wants to stay away from but these are people with relatively down the middle conservative you know conservative groups and they were being denied

SPEAKER_229: service by you know fintech firms so now i'm not saying that this is what this means but if this

SPEAKER_169: equity auditors tells you well look i don't think it's equitable to allow these conservative groups to you know be a user of your product well what's the company going to do they're gonna have to listen to that and and that that is a plausible scenario given that it's already occurred we've all we've

SPEAKER_94: said this so many times on the pod but i just want to say it again for because i guess a lot of folks are

SPEAKER_182: new and listening whenever you hear equity used by a politician it usually means there's a power grab involved yeah because if you really want things to be fair you want things to be um equal meritocracy you want equality but whenever you start throwing the word equity around and say we want racial equity it's a bunch of you know a small number of people who you know basically have and live by what i you know what's often called luxury beliefs who want to judge other people who want to be morally absolutist and then who want to basically like uh you know exercise a power grab and we have to push back on that

SPEAKER_197: stuff because it's just a slippery slippery slope well this also seems like overbearing red tape for companies i mean if the company has no problems no complaints against it you know releases their diversity numbers like what is the point of going in there and auditing them let's use let's use an

SPEAKER_13: example that builds on what david said let's take square okay one of the one of the most incredible things that square did was in a hackathon essentially build a cash app yeah and one of the most incredible things that happened in the cash app was that it really started to blow up in urban communities okay and it starts to normalize banking opening up bank accounts having more savings understanding you know an on-ramp into crypto you know cash app has probably done more to get black and brown people into crypto and to save money and to understand their cash than almost anybody else as as like almost explicit strategy and so is somebody supposed to go in there and just you know arbitrarily judge whether there's too many white people that work at square or not enough black people and so xyz thing

SPEAKER_107: has to change or such and such a feature doesn't actually speak to folks so you can't do it it's

SPEAKER_234: insanity it's like also to to your point sax is what what are the what do these people know like what

SPEAKER_127: is their qualification and what's the goal right and and to build on jama's point if these senators so i think cory booker was the one who proposed this if these senators want those specific policies

SPEAKER_169: implemented in the fortune 500 let them pass a bill to do it and let all of our elected representatives vote on that bill and then we can see if it'll really if it's popular enough to pass and whether it passes constitutional muster they won't do that because these bills if they were directly concretized they don't have would be very unpopular so instead what they do is tell you well we're not going to do this directly we're going to put pressure on these big companies to hire one of our political friends again this like commissar-like person and empower them to tell these companies what to do so it's it's really kind of insidious what they're doing and they're kind of covering it all up with these nice sounding names i mean who could be against a racial equity audit right because yes if you're if you're

SPEAKER_193: against it you must be a racist and you must not believe in auditing companies right right you have

SPEAKER_13: to you just it's a word game it's it's using words that are really loaded and mean a lot to a lot of us right if i hear racism and race my ears triggering it's not triggering but my ears perk up and i have i have a lot of inbuilt opinions on it that have been governed by 45 years as living as a as a brown man and so okay it stands to reason that i'm going to pay attention but on the surface if you say racial equity audit it also doesn't seem actually all that bad it seems like reasonably benign and that seems like an okay thing to do it's just that most of us then stop at that point and move on right but if you actually look at the rules again i would just say whenever political frameworks use the word we need

SPEAKER_107: to create more equity the outcomes are horrible for example look in healthcare you know if we have used this idea of healthcare equity health equity and we've misused it to such a degree and all we see is that now the system is so perverted it also doesn't work for the majority of people that have actually had the healthcare system work for right like at the top of the pecking order has always been white men have always gotten the best care and we've always measured our healthcare progress in america based on the longevity of men white men you know 78 79 80 years old and then it started to degrade and people were curious what was happening and underneath it all was just a bunch of power

SPEAKER_13: grabs under the realm of equity we passed all these crazy laws we basically didn't do anything to really create more accountability and a cost-based system and here we are so at some point when the

SPEAKER_107: citizenry hears that word you're going to have to put your thinking cap on and actually take the opposite view which is hold on this is a really nice sounding word it may not be what i think it is and i got to pay attention because more than if i didn't hear the word at all anything you have uh on race

SPEAKER_265: friedberg representing um south africans fundamentally i don't think this is about race jake i think this

SPEAKER_173: is about power power it's about it feels like a power grip also it feels like a little great it feels like a little bit of a grift i know i had heard on the back channel that a lot of the people who are

SPEAKER_35: criticizing some big tech companies who were getting you know i'm not going to say who or under what moniker sweater sweater karen is that sweater karen but there was a group of people who are like

SPEAKER_93: attacking big sweater karen if she has an opinion on sweater she must have an opinion on racial equity

SPEAKER_269: come on okay leave sweater karen has the issue is um they would complain and create these you know

SPEAKER_35: basically you know twitter mobs and then they'd say oh yeah and hire us for 20 000 we'll come in and fix the problem for you so they were creating the twitter mob to then come in and solve the problem

SPEAKER_273: that's so and i was like oh wow that is that's so brutal that's so dirty no i mean these hr consultants

SPEAKER_127: who've written these books like on though was it uh d'angelo or whatever on white fragility and uh you know how how to be an anti-racist i mean they're all making a fortune in corporate fees you know charging 20 30 000 per per gig i mean it is absolutely a racket i'm not a fan of equality of

SPEAKER_27: outcome i'm more a fan of equality of opportunity and i think um many many of these sorts of folks i try and identify methods to drive equality of outcome and it inhibits the competitive forces

SPEAKER_280: that cause the best person the best idea the best business the best market model to win

SPEAKER_27: and uh you know i think it's easy to conflate the two when you don't really think through it but it is certainly appropriate and reasonable to make sure that folks aren't discriminated against when they apply for a job i don't think it's appropriate to then apply considerations of race and other factors when people are equally in the same job on who gets to have the chance at the

SPEAKER_280: bonus it is the best performer that should have the chance at the bonus and the same should be true in marketplaces and the same should be true at business and i think that what we're really seeing is this fundamental effort to try and generate equality and outcomes um in lots of different manifestations and we're seeing it more frequently and more severely than we've seen it historically but it's not uh i don't think it's the right model and it's only going to lead to demise of marketplace

SPEAKER_281: dynamics and the things that cause forces for success and progress um to win you know we um we

SPEAKER_120: mentioned this a couple times i'll just say it again um but we are about to have probably the most significant movement and questioning of equity versus equality um because i think in the next month maybe

SPEAKER_182: in the next two months we're going to sort of see a pretty strict opinion on affirmative action and uh if you talk to legal scholars the overwhelming consensus is this is gone um and you know we're

SPEAKER_120: gonna have to figure out how to rebuild you know what was a really important system that tried to give

SPEAKER_182: folks at least you know getting to the starting line in the same way but it's not gonna it's not

SPEAKER_283: really gonna exist in this in the same way shape or form speaking of karen's uh elizabeth warren uh was

SPEAKER_197: bashing elon over taxes and elon um has a twitter handle um with some followers and he responded uh elizabeth warren says let's change the rigged tax code so the person of the year will actually pay taxes and stop freeloading off everyone else unfortunately for uh elizabeth warren uh elon musk is pretty good at twitter he replied and if you opened your eyes for two seconds you would realize i pay more taxes than any american in history this year he paid which is i guess true he paid more in taxes now than any american in history as a side note elizabeth warren has a 12 million dollar net worth and i saw

SPEAKER_35: that she paid no taxes on her equity holdings because she didn't sell anything which is how the tax

SPEAKER_197: code works and uh elon then responded uh don't spend it all at once oh wait you already did

SPEAKER_88: and then you know after the warm-up replies elon really you know uh got in the zone and uh like

SPEAKER_197: steph curry just started draining half-court shots he ratioed her everything she heard her with 50 000 replies yeah you remind me of when i was a kid and my friend's angry mom would just randomly yell at

SPEAKER_88: everyone for no reason please don't call the manager on me senator karen elon also responded to bernie sanders uh tweet today about climate change bernie sanders said when future generations ask us what

SPEAKER_291: do we do to stop the climate crisis how will the answer and uh elon said and so great tweets uh but to

SPEAKER_34: the bigger picture did these people even know what's going on in the world no they woke up they woke up

SPEAKER_104: on the wrong side of the tilt bed yeah because uh in in like a 24-hour period he was the time person

SPEAKER_202: of the year the ft person of the year and they just went into super mega tilt mode and the build back

SPEAKER_300: better act got shelved and he and then and then builds on 20 billion in sales and um well i mean

SPEAKER_182: you know i think we we talked about this last week but that bill is dead now i mean they pushed it to march to basically avoid a down vote nothing's gonna happen david you're right this bill is dead

SPEAKER_34: we said last week wouldn't it be hilarious if elon said kill it and then it got killed well i don't

SPEAKER_120: i don't think that that's why the bill is dying i think the real reason is that we now see a fed

SPEAKER_13: posture which is actually pretty reasonable which actually says oh wait there's way too much money in the system as it is yeah you know the fed two days ago basically said we're gonna see up to three rate hikes next year probably 50 basis points each so you know it's basically acknowledging that these these last you know several years we have printed way too much money and they're trying to fix the

SPEAKER_107: problem that they created so that's i think the real reason and then the cbo comes out and basically says the congressional budget office and says this thing is a white albatross that's going to cost

SPEAKER_13: way more than you guys think it will and so it puts biden in this very awkward situation which is you know on the one hand he supports powell um and you know he supports institutions or has historically like the cbo but he effectively then has to push back on both of them all in one fall soup to try to ram this bill down people's throats and the support is i think it's crumbling and so you know to save face they basically said well we'll put a pin on this and we'll revisit it in march but you guys know what's going to happen in the next three months there's going to be some other crisis most folks will forget and it may just allow them to move on without having to actually deal with the potential

Chamath Palihapitiya: of this thing getting defeated which would just be i think cataclysmically bad for sacks for democrats

SPEAKER_197: you were on cnbc today i thought you said something really important where you said hey listen

SPEAKER_35: maybe if we just calm things down for a year we can you know get through i'm not sure what the exact quote was but maybe you could unpack that sentiment you had on cnbc today because i thought

SPEAKER_127: that was pretty important yeah well i mean i agree with what jama said this um i mean this this bbb bill was particularly anachronistic once the 6.8 you know inflation print came out in other words we're in a hyperinflationary environment and here comes this bill that the cbo says if you know over 10 years would cost five trillion dollars that's the last thing we need is more money printing when you know we've got this inflationary fire out of control so i think that is why the the bill is being shelved probably not to return um i think that the larger problem that we have in the markets is that just there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty being created right now by washington we've had tremendous uncertainty over spending over taxes over interest rates and the conversations that i'm having with friends who are investors in really every asset

SPEAKER_229: class real estate vc crypto the conversations are all the same what's interest rates going to do what's the macro picture going to be i've never seen investors who should be focused on hey do i invest this company or buy this building whatever those aren't the conversations it's all everyone's a macro economist now and so we're also distracted by this and so now the fed a couple of days ago finally gave us clarity i mean what they basically said is they're going to accelerate the taper they'll they'll end quantitative easing at the end of q1 and then we're basically going to get explain what

SPEAKER_309: that means to people who don't know what they've been purchasing and why yeah i mean quantitative easing

SPEAKER_127: is kind of a weird term what it means is that the fed has been going into the bond market and buying bonds um i think basically mortgage-backed securities and treasuries and they've been buying i think about 90 billion a month they're going to cut that back to 60 billion a month and uh that'll continue just to

SPEAKER_13: explain it a little bit more when you do that what you're doing is you're giving somebody that owns those bonds money okay so the fed prints money basically the government prints a hundred dollars takes that hundred dollars steps into the market and takes something from you in this case it's a bond and gives you that freshly printed hundred dollars what are you going to do well you're probably going to go and spend that you're going to buy other things and that's the cycle of inflation that quantitative easing basically creates and so when you call it when you talk about tapering what that means is slowing down the money printing machine and slowing down you stepping in the market and buying

SPEAKER_107: assets with money that you've created out of thin air and it's up to other people to buy those assets

SPEAKER_283: if other people see value in them you you then you then are forced to find the real market clearing

SPEAKER_127: price yeah those those bonds are now on the fed's balance sheet and so there's a very interesting chart showing assets that are owned by the fed and it went up by something like three trillion during covet so that is the sort of monetary stimulus that's been pumped into the market over the last couple of years separately we've had something like six or seven trillion of just spending by the

SPEAKER_197: government so you know tremendous amount of three trillion is not thrown away so we're clear we're going to get interest on that and people some number will default some of them will get paid back

SPEAKER_35: it's a way of stimulating the economy but we now know after this uh stimmy checks and all the stimulus we did during the pandemic we don't need to put more fire or oxygen or kerosene on what we got

SPEAKER_127: going in this economy correct david yeah i mean we we should show that chart about how much the fed's balance sheet has grown over the last couple of years but you know the the argument i think would be the reason why they do they buy these assets is if they're buying bonds it basically means that it keeps the yield down right because if they weren't the ones buying them someone else would have to buy these bonds to keep the government funded and they might demand a higher interest rate a higher

SPEAKER_169: yield on the bonds so this by having the fed come in and increase the demand for the government's debt it means that the government can sell its debt more cheaply so when they stop doing that um i

SPEAKER_229: think you can expect that you know interest rates are going to need to rise in order to make our debt attractive to you know to bond buyers the other thing the other thing by the way that the fed did

SPEAKER_13: when they did that was it wasn't just government bonds that they were buying they decided completely arbitrarily um at one point to start buying certain corporate debt so they own like ford debt gm debt commercial that's called yeah no no no well not i mean commercial paper sort of more very short term short term duration but like how do you make a decision to start buying corporate bonds

SPEAKER_112: it's like buying corporate equities do you buy google versus facebook do you have a who's the capital

SPEAKER_326: allocator making that decision so more importantly who's who's setting the price who's setting the price so

SPEAKER_107: you know these guys have been off the reservation for a long time i think it's fair to say that they were forced into action without a playbook in the middle of a once in a you know lifetime once a century pandemic fair enough and i think they actually did a pretty reasonable job but we just kept the tap on for so long yeah and now we're like dealing with this stuff trying to figure out how do we actually compensate so the idea that we would add knowing all of this so it's one thing i think if biden passed the bill five months ago six months ago because we didn't know any of this stuff but to do it now knowing that i think that it's really hard and i bet you that it's not just mansion on the

SPEAKER_13: democrats that are having a little bit of heartburn and second thoughts it's probably more because i suspect that they could have forced his hand really if it was just up to him but i suspect there are other democrats who are now teetering on the fence thinking i don't want my legacy to be tied to this

SPEAKER_107: when we're printing six seven eight percent inflation for me to basically keep the money printing machine on because it's it's insane this is like the sopranos episode where he gave him like

SPEAKER_35: he fronted the guy like 45 boxes of ziti and like you wake up and this guy can't pay the bill on the poker game like where can we even afford to pay this back at some point yeah look i think when when

SPEAKER_127: march comes around and this bill's supposedly going to be brought back off the table we're going to be into the election season in 2022 and i don't know that democrats are going to defend this i think there is a view on the democratic side that if they deliver enough goodies to their base

SPEAKER_229: then that will help them win elections but i think what helps you win elections more than delivering

SPEAKER_169: goodies to your special interests is for the economy to be healthy yeah and if they are sort of pressurizing this inflation situation that is i think ultimately that could backfire i think that's going to be worse for the economy frankly i think manchin's doing biden a favor because if the economy does grow by four percent next year as the fed is predicting it is and if inflation comes down because you stop printing money the way they're doing then you know i think the democrats will do better in the election if the economy is good i mean one of the reasons why they did so poorly you know in the off-year election a month ago is that there's tremendous economic anxiety out there people are seeing the inflation at the gas tank when they go to buy food and um you know if that continues i think they're going to do very poorly next year i wanted to like bring up this chart from fred on total assets on the fed balance sheet i think it is really interesting to look at this thing because so the fed had about a trillion of assets until 2008 okay then we had the financial crisis and they doubled it that's when the quantitative easing began i went to 2 trillion but then from roughly 2009 to about 2020 before covid somehow the balance sheet grew from two trillion to four trillion so and it had gone to four and a half and they were starting to shed assets so they were starting to get off drugs but it was still from two to four trillion between this like 2009 and 2020 period when supposedly we weren't in a crisis so you know they've continued this quantitative easing then covet hits and the amount grows from four to seven trillion just in 2020 and since then it's gone from seven to a little under nine trillion uh just in the last you know well they how do we get these things

SPEAKER_316: off our books ever i mean these are 20 years eventually you gotta sell them well either they're

SPEAKER_169: gonna have to sell the assets or they can do well well it's not like that they they basically are the are the the fed is the one who bought the government debt so their buying is call it a 10-year treasury so yeah i guess they could just wait till the the bond gets paid off but um but i guess they could do that but but now the fed has an incentive not to let the assets get toxic right so if you know the assets would get toxic if you know if interest rates go up too high that drives bond

SPEAKER_229: prices down and now all the assets on their books are worth a lot less yeah this is this is like the

SPEAKER_13: point where we have to just call it and say okay you know what let's move on meaning in the sense that like we have to go to these root causes because the money is more money is not going to fix what we're dealing with so i just put something in the group chat and i just want to get your guys's reaction to it because when i saw it it blew my mind there was a study okay that was just published a few days ago and it said the following thing children born during the pandemic have experienced a catastrophic drop in cognitive development of 22 iq points yeah and when you look at it the people that were the most affected were male children and children of lower socioeconomic families but everybody was affected yet you see the amount of money that we're spending already so adding more

SPEAKER_113: money to something is not going to make it better if what we're spending today is basically just getting

SPEAKER_107: flushed down the toilet and these are the kinds of things that really matter how do you allow an entire generation of kids to see to see to suffer by the way what does that show that means that teachers actually are unbelievably important so number one they should get paid a lot more okay let's just put it that way and there should be more of them and smaller class sizes exactly but if you if you have you know these completely screwed up incentives between you know the organizations the unions that represent these teachers and then the parents who have completely different incentives and they basically fight to never be in classroom and to not really teach this is the measurable outcome yeah the iq of our children i mean we are verbal ability their executive function

SPEAKER_342: their scores are going down how do they recover from that be a lot of tutoring it's gonna be a lot of

SPEAKER_344: summer school yeah i mean zoom's not gonna do it i don't think more fortnight and roblox fixes this

SPEAKER_107: problem no definitely not and and i feel terrible because like you know as a parent that's that was

SPEAKER_13: my solution right i was struggling with the zooms like every other parent and then in the evenings i was just so burnt and just feeling so beside myself in the middle of the pandemic whereas i had a no ipad rule for my kids that i broke down yeah you know everybody did i mean it's like everybody

SPEAKER_42: you're home with your kids all day long it's not how it's supposed to work and but so the point is

SPEAKER_13: like this is where the government should step in and actually say okay here let me take leadership on

SPEAKER_107: this topic right and talk to the unions fix whatever needs to be fixed amp up the the money into charter schools do whatever you need to do but please fix the problem but randomly spending money to try to buy votes i think people see through that it just doesn't work and related to that omnicron

SPEAKER_344: is spreading like crazy uh new york city had an outbreak omnicron omicron there is no n

SPEAKER_342: omicron omicron omicron yes i'll learn how to pronounce it when it's gone omicron omicron

SPEAKER_293: is spreading like crazy in new york city and in the uk amongst other places the nba and the nfl are

SPEAKER_27: seeing surges i've had a ton of people i know test positive this week you guys had that family friends crazy no no it's insane how many people are i know so many people in new york city east coast

SPEAKER_354: related yeah and a lot of people that don't have um any symptoms so here's the chart of cases uh cases

SPEAKER_197: spiking but hospitalizations and deaths are flat or going down um in places where these outbreaks are

SPEAKER_35: occurring the uk uh charts are even starker there's a lot of anecdotal evidence everybody on tick tock and instagram and twitter young people in new york who went to santa con are saying they all got it but if you look at this chart what is santa con santa con is the worst holiday of the year it's a time when a bunch of young people dress as santa claus and get drunk and you have 10 000 people it's a bar crawl

SPEAKER_161: do you see this you see how you see how monty's wearing his santa outfit oh monty cause that's what goes on everyone wears their little santa outfit and they go bar crawling so it's not sexy santa

SPEAKER_363: well actually i have a story about that i was in san francisco oh my god you were sexy santa no i

SPEAKER_85: literally took my daughters out for pizza uh tony's uh in uh north beach and you know i got my three

SPEAKER_42: daughters and there's all these people walking around like look dad it's santa claus like a lot of them and so there's a thousand santa claus descend on north beach and i turn around and i kid you not there are two old guys i'm talking 70 years old and they're wearing a baseball uh santa hat santa boots

SPEAKER_148: and nothing in between literally naked in on the street so yeah bro you're you're so you're so demented

Chamath Palihapitiya: okay you're like this like like anki perv like every time i get those text messages i don't know what to think did you guys click on the twitter link when jason was like guys search for the fulsome street

SPEAKER_369: fair on twitter i can't i can't unsee what i saw i was like why is fulsome street trending i was like

SPEAKER_371: i thought there was a terrorist attack bro that was so brutal you you should you can't send that

SPEAKER_372: around like it's so brutal i was like don't click on false i was like oh this is a twitter link what is it

SPEAKER_85: about web 3.0 not exactly uh the fulsome street fair i'm gonna go ahead and say don't search for

SPEAKER_88: that um if you have kids around it's a little bit intense um but anyway the santa com was on saturday

SPEAKER_35: december 11th and so here we are five days late you know four or five days later and the stuff hitting if that's true it almost perfectly mirrors the original outbreak after saint paddy's day in march 2020 and if you look on social media all the city md lines uh where people get tested are around the block and 30 nba players have entered the covid protocol in the last two weeks about seven percent of the league and uh we had a big question mark of would this be less more contagious it obviously

SPEAKER_27: is check less deadly it apparently some studies show as much as 40 times more infectious than delta um highly contagious extreme very much airborne it's going everywhere uh like i said last time if it does end up having low severity and low um hospitalization rate and low death rate for vaccinated or vaccinated plus boosted populations uh this could end up being a massive immunizing event

SPEAKER_280: meaning like a lot of people will develop new antibodies and resistance and um you know that could be a net good thing but it's certainly the case that this is not a one strain one shot and done pandemic this is an endemic kind of circumstance we're going to be in this for a while and um you know the circumstances are one that may kind of require you know an adaptation in terms of how we live and operate and especially as it relates to things that are so important like keeping businesses open in schools um you know i think we're going to use recent memory to guide future decision making or at least politicians and you know kind of lawmakers will and they'll say hey this is what we did last time this happened and we just saw this in california where they're like last time like we told everyone going to lockdown or wear masks indoors again and we're seeing that behavior again certainly it may have an impact in terms of the spread but this is highly contagious and it's going to spread everywhere and i think there's just some adaptation that maybe

SPEAKER_378: it's going to be needed here over the long run there's no end there's no end in sight there's no

SPEAKER_197: end in sight but uh it is less deadly and so it could be mass immunizing and that has led people to

SPEAKER_35: think of this herd immunity potentially if there's not another variant um sacks if the nba and the nfl are learning to live with covet and obviously when we were in miami there's no covet in austin there's no covet yeah is everybody now just go because it seems like the politicians now whether it's in europe we're seeing the protests uh and i think we'll see them here in the united states if this keeps up australia obviously having protests as well the public has decided i think we're willing to have a thousand people die a day or a certain number of people die today to get back to normal

David Sacks: so what do you think the end game here is going into 22 i'll make a prediction for 2022 okay i will

SPEAKER_127: predict that even the blue areas of the country are going to have fatigue with all these covet restrictions and so even the blue state governors who are addicted to their state of emergencies and their restrictions and lockdowns and closures and mass mandates even they are going to have to give

SPEAKER_229: them up in 2022 because the country is sick and tired of this peter fam had a really good tweet

SPEAKER_169: uh just the other day maybe you guys can dig it up where he had a friend visit him from texas and they've been living normally there since like july of 2020 roughly kids in school occasionally someone gets sick but they've been living normally okay it's a manageable problem and he couldn't believe peter's friend could not believe how they're living in la we're still everyone's living in fear they've we now have a new one month indoor mass mandate thanks to you know governor newsom who still is ruling the state under state of emergency what good is that going to do so i think you know but but but i think that some of these blue areas people are so petrified still of the virus and i think it's just because of they're the ones who have been ingesting all this fear porn coming from the media and but i but i think it's going to break i think the the finally this hysteria and panic will break it'll crest over the blue parts of the country in 2022 they're already back to normal in the red parts and especially omicron you can't stop this okay i think that's the the salient point

SPEAKER_167: here nothing works you're all gonna get it look the little the little stupid vax card that you have to

SPEAKER_169: show everywhere to get like popcorn at a movie theater like you know in san francisco it doesn't

SPEAKER_193: do anything because vaccinated people can spread it too so that doesn't do anything and the mass

SPEAKER_188: mandate doesn't do anything um you know and so none of this stuff does anything except getting a vaccine reduces the severity of the illness and losing weight and losing weight and we can't have that

SPEAKER_169: conversation those consequences are mainly on the person who decides to do that's what we have to say

SPEAKER_173: is we just have to tell everybody you know listen lose weight get in shape eat healthy get vaccinated

SPEAKER_34: get back to life that's it that's the best you can do i'm i believe everybody's gonna get it we're

SPEAKER_169: starting to see like a real divergence in american life where and i think omicron's if we have lockdowns under omicron and really the the big issue is school closures if we go back to school closures in blue states and have more of the learning loss that chamath was talking about and i bet we do whereas in red states are still out there learning normally and they're dealing with it just like they deal with the outbreak of a flu season or cold season but they you know they're just managing it we're gonna there's gonna be we're gonna be living in two different americas but i but i don't believe this is sustainable i think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are gonna lose in 2022 the ones who haven't given it up are gonna are gonna basically fall to a red wave in november 22. i think noosa might be the only one left any schools closed i see

SPEAKER_110: everybody's canceling their christmas parties jp morgan canceled that we're close we're close every

SPEAKER_379: christmas party's been getting canceled um and i wonder if schools i mean teachers unions i think they

SPEAKER_229: gotta be having a meeting right now they don't even the teachers don't even acknowledge that learning

SPEAKER_36: loss exists i mean this is why i decided to homeschool for the year of the pandemic and i kept my homeschool teacher for you know a couple of hours a day and uh my kids have done wonderfully and it's great to have the ability to afford to be able to do that but not everybody can have an after school

SPEAKER_229: tutor let me up level this for a second okay so maybe i'm spilling the beans on one of my predictions

SPEAKER_169: i'll make it the predictions episode we do but first we had covet okay then we had the overreaction to covet both politically and economically economically we pumped 10 trillion plus of spending and monetary and qe and all this sort of stuff politically we had these restrictions school closures lockdowns mandates okay i think we're about to enter a new phase which is the correction to the overreaction and i think we're already in the correction so the market's been correcting gross stocks been correcting for the last five or six weeks i now think that we're there was a bit of a political correction with youngkin winning in virginia remember that state swung 10 points relative to a year ago and i think you'll see a further correction both political and economic in 2022. so we may not be completely past covet but i think we are going to be past this sort of

SPEAKER_398: overreaction to covet what do you guys think about succession oh no i haven't seen it i haven't seen it

SPEAKER_35: jeremy strong jeremy strong let's talk about that jeremy strong okay jeremy strong is a weirdo

SPEAKER_197: uh according to a new yorker profile and there's been a huge response to it uh this profile came out kendall roy on succession kendall roy who is woke and dumb and ineffective as an executive and obviously the show is modeled after rupert murdoch and fox and the kids there who are not dopey

SPEAKER_110: actually in the article it hinted that most of succession's co-workers dislike him due to his

SPEAKER_34: intensity and methane acted method acting rituals he won't rehearse with anybody he's in character all the time like daniel day lewis he won't get makeup whenever anybody else does because he doesn't want to reduce the energy and the build up uh the article notes there is a fine line that strong walks between being a legendary method actor and just a complete uh the awesome networker wait can i

SPEAKER_13: tell you why this story was interesting to me and why i sent this to you guys yeah okay so here's a guy who in many ways is a virtuoso and the reason you mean he's a he's a really good actor because i despise kendall roy on that show uh and i was wondering like is this guy just a terrible actor or is he such a good actor that i hate them yes i hate him and that's why i was attracted to this article and in it or after it so basically what happens is he's a virtuoso just and i'll come back to it in a second these people at the new yorker who i guess are just jealous or want to write click bait try to destroy this guy but what they didn't factor is that when they published this article all these other actors would come to his defense and do it really publicly yes anne hathaway and

SPEAKER_112: hathaway jessica chastain aaron sorkin wrote a letter exactly that jessica chastain published to

SPEAKER_13: twitter because aaron aaron sorkin doesn't have access to social media by design and in all of it they said this is the most incredible person we've seen aaron sorkin says this guy is as good as dustin hoffman which is like this is as good as it gets so why was it interesting to me it's you have these people who are grinding and trying to perfect their craft be a virtuoso you talked about steph curry grinding try to perfect his craft just a little steph curry story as a tangent he he brought in this team where they basically started to map out all of the uh circumferences of the ring of the

SPEAKER_113: of the net and he practiced this summer literally trying to get it perfectly in to create this very specific kind of swish and he just kept shooting and shooting and shooting and shooting not you know

SPEAKER_13: all the time but every day for some number of shots trying to get the ball perfectly into the basket that is a level of perfectionism and it that's being a virtuoso that none of us can really appreciate

SPEAKER_107: but you see the output and we all love it he's already the goat and he's trying to outdo himself here's a different guy in a completely different theater in this case acting trying to also be

SPEAKER_13: really legendary and putting himself through all kinds of stuff and still not lose himself in it okay so much so that all of these other people will really appreciate how amazing he is

SPEAKER_107: and to me what i don't like is that then these critics who don't do anything who've never accomplished anything at all in their lives feel judgment feel so triggered that they have to judge him it's one thing to not have that skill i'll never be as good of an actor as jeremy strong i'll never be as good of a basketball player stuff but i don't hate these people for that i'm so happy that people like this exist but there's a strain of people that exist and they also have a and then

SPEAKER_83: who also have a platform yeah i was about to connect the dots for you is like look at yeah look at how the politicians feel the same way about media politicians who decide to try to destroy

SPEAKER_419: people yeah so instead what these people do is they take a shortcut they're the critics they're not in

SPEAKER_113: the arena okay the folks in the arena are booking wins and losses constantly but you have this you have

SPEAKER_107: this strain of impotent critic that doesn't naturally know how to do for themselves and they somehow have a platform and then what they end up doing is cutting corners and then some subset of those start to

SPEAKER_169: cheat q david well yeah it's a story that congress back in 2012 passed a bill called the stock act to

SPEAKER_229: prohibit members of congress from trading on their insider knowledge based on you know based on legislative actions they're about to take and it's been widely flouted by dozens of you know representatives and senators and the problem is there's no punishment it's something like a 200

SPEAKER_169: fine or something like that that gets waived in most of these cases so it's completely hypocritical because these are the these politicians like senator karen they're constantly demonizing and attacking other people to make themselves look better and then here they are they've got dirty hands um and they asked pelosi they said to pelosi well don't you think that members of congress should be prohibited from trading stocks right because their actions have such a huge consequence on them and pelosi said no it's a it's a free market it's a free market we should be free to to do that it's like huh you know i don't remember that being a defense every time you've wanted to

SPEAKER_188: regulate some you know industry that uh doesn't the president have to divest when they take the

SPEAKER_423: presidential office isn't that a thing divest or they put they put their assets in a blind trust

SPEAKER_34: yeah so they're blind so why why would senators congress totally people be any different it's absurd

SPEAKER_229: that elected officials should be able to engage in insider trading it makes no sense the fed uh actually

Chamath Palihapitiya: had this issue as well two um two folks on the federal reserve board resigned and then powell issued

SPEAKER_13: uh a whole bunch of i think new laws tried or regulations inside the fed to try to fix it and

SPEAKER_107: the same issue occurs with federal judges and there are federal judges that are consistently trading in the equities of the companies that are in front of them and so how can you how can you adjudicate a case there was one judge that had 130 plus conflicts trading conflicts 130 plus and he is the one that's there where at&t or facebook or google has an issue i mean how can you actually assume that these folks are being impartial if that's the case and there are no consequences for this and yet you know if you're again going back to where we started somebody in the arena trying to do something you just got to think to yourself like you have critics that are bashing you you have folks that are basically flouting the law because they can and then you put these two together and it's like this

SPEAKER_106: is so it's kind of depressing to be honest with you you start to lose a little bit of faith let's

SPEAKER_34: be honest i mean these politicians are grifters that's it and full stop i mean they're just grifting

SPEAKER_35: and i mean except for apparently except for bernie sanders and elizabeth warren they should just buy the companies they hate why aren't they buying amazon and tesla they would be total proponents of

SPEAKER_127: jeff bezos and elon musk if they did yeah in fairness to warren i've seen her tweet that she supports the banning of the insider trading by congressional representatives but i don't exactly see her fighting for it uh you know as hard as she's announcing people like elon so um look i mean it's it's characteristic of elected officials that they um what is it they see the the splinter you know in somebody you know in somebody else's eye but not the the log in their own or something like that isn't that the expression but you know who's taking advantage of this issue is blake masters who's running for the senate in arizona just tweeted about that this would be the first thing he would fix if he gets elected which is to ban insider trading by elected officials and i i think

SPEAKER_229: it's remarkable that you know politicians as shrewd as nancy pelosi are deceding this issue to republicans

SPEAKER_169: i mean i don't know why republicans wouldn't make this a major plank of their platform for 2022.

SPEAKER_430: david nancy pelosi is i think the third or fourth richest person in congress

SPEAKER_13: her husband is a very sophisticated private equity investor there are these meme stocks that follow

SPEAKER_107: nancy pelosi's stock trading account or pretend to that were you know recently by the way banned by twitter right yeah that was weird yeah protecting her protecting her effectively so you know she has an incentive to not her seat of power is not necessarily the salary that she earns by being house leader but it's by translating that in a bunch of different ways and one way apparently it turns out is being an active equity investor in the market it's unbelievable that's allowed i don't

SPEAKER_127: know how this isn't just like an a plus fantastic issue for republicans they should make it an absolute

SPEAKER_35: plank of their platform here we go florida republican brian mast uh was late in disclosure disclosing purchase of up to a hundred thousand in stock in an aerospace company which had just testified before our committee he sets kentucky republican rand paul was 16 months late disclosing that he bought his wife bought stock in a pharma company that manufactures an antiviral coven 19 treatment right nevada

SPEAKER_36: democrat susie lee failed to probably disclose more than 200 trades yeah just as much as 3 million i mean

SPEAKER_229: this is yeah just to be clear the violations have been on both sides of the aisle i'm not at all trying to say that republicans are better on this than democrats however this is good this is good

SPEAKER_335: bipartisan cooperation yeah yeah exactly i mean it's ridiculous this is the political class in

SPEAKER_169: washington bad behavior but but but the difference is this which is that pelosi the only leader of a party i've heard defend this is pelosi and i think this is a fantastic issue for outsider candidates

SPEAKER_430: really on both sides to run on this is also something that biden can take because biden has never

SPEAKER_445: tried to do this stuff you know oh my god biden's got so many shady dealings and conflicts are you

SPEAKER_160: talking about his kid no selling paintings to china there's a lot of rich biden's out there

SPEAKER_143: apparently he's got a rich brother he's got a you know a lot of money no maybe that's true but

SPEAKER_448: joe biden has been really down the middle come on be fair hunter is brilliant i mean he's selling

SPEAKER_169: paintings yeah but why are they buying hunter biden paintings for up 500 000 well i mean he's a great

SPEAKER_173: artist i mean why do people buy i don't know if you saw melania's coming out with nfts today

SPEAKER_34: so she's okay melania's security everybody's securing the bag now i mean if and by the way the presidential grift is always the best just as a case in point trump's spac is worth over 2 billion and buzzfeed which makes 360 million a year and i think has 100 200 million cash he's not an office

SPEAKER_378: that's misstated jason trump's back his shares that he's going to be receiving are worth close to

SPEAKER_456: 20 billion what 20 billion but he's not in office anymore so i'm not sure the shares he's going to

SPEAKER_157: receive oh yeah what you're counting is the market cap of the cash and trust the value of the shares that are already public the trump the value of the trump entity is going to be closer to 20 billion

SPEAKER_461: oh is that right wow that's even crazier with no revenue these poor media right yeah well the sec

SPEAKER_27: apparently the doj sent a bunch of inquiries on this asking uh for background on the transaction

SPEAKER_280: because there's no business there's no contracts there's no employees it's just the whole but by

SPEAKER_173: the way idea just to make sure that everybody understands this isn't this is a bipartisan thing

SPEAKER_35: as well the the ultimate bag secures the obamas got i think 50 million plus each for their book deals

SPEAKER_309: and they got supposedly high eight figures like 50 60 70 80 million dollars from netflix hold on a second

SPEAKER_466: hold on a second when you said when you call them bag secures i was really triggered there for a second

David Friedberg: so am i supposed to take that offensively that you're saying michelle obama and brock obama secured the bag secure the bag is a term for getting the money the the obamas are doing it okay the clinton's

SPEAKER_257: in it and it's a thing trump's just a thing it's a thing secure the bag but jason we're not against

SPEAKER_229: everybody not be able to make money uh the issue is trading on your office in a way that uh where you

SPEAKER_169: are trading on your insider information that your office has given sure but i mean here or if you're selling influence if you sell a book hold on a second if you sell a book when you're out of office

SPEAKER_35: is that really a problem is that i wanted to point out the netflix one what was netflix's existential crisis for the eight years obama was in office anybody remember nobody remembers net neutrality nobody cares could they get would they have to pay verizon what was uh the obama's position on net neutrality they were for net neutrality netflix stock went up 40 50x under

SPEAKER_149: obama it could all be a coincidence i'm just saying what the so you're saying it's like

SPEAKER_475: you're saying it's a disguise lobbying payment to obama i think it's like are you serious i think it's

SPEAKER_476: like you're out of your mind i mean listen the clintons were doing speaking gigs for goldman

SPEAKER_479: sacks and half a million dollars this is kind of my cue to go to dinner now okay here's the mra and

SPEAKER_169: you know the main way that winston churchill supported himself was writing books i think it's okay for politicians to write books and if because ultimately the public buys them and that's how they

SPEAKER_72: make money what about when the book is 50 million in the normal price would be 10. that's the problem

SPEAKER_169: well i mean if i i guess you might have a point if the advance was so in excess of the expected sales that it raises a question of what the real motive is that's what i'm for the payment but i don't

SPEAKER_36: know but is that is that what happened is nobody gets paid a 50 million dollar events nobody gets an eight-figure deal who's never made a documentary before no i mean if this book sold 5 million copies it still wouldn't be worth it uh let's move on to mrna so we keep our freed uh free birth factor

SPEAKER_488: high i'm like so i'm like so i'm so ready to go to dinner rick thompson gave me a wonderful bottle

SPEAKER_490: of wine by the way i'm gonna go drink it tonight i'm so super tilted that you you you like it's like i mean why did i criticize the obamas yeah i can't deal with it no fly zone for you i'm super tilted

SPEAKER_147: i mean this is worse than sweater care what what about the clintons can i can i uh go after their 500k speaking gigs from goldman sachs yeah that's okay yeah okay fine just don't touch the obamas but

SPEAKER_169: i mean jason are you are you doing exactly what senator karen did to elon which is by virtue of the

SPEAKER_143: fact that they're making money that you are now imputing evil motives to it no it's just a

SPEAKER_158: disproportionate to what they should get by your assessment their assessment's the same about elon

SPEAKER_89: i'd pay a lot of money for michelle obama to do much of any i think she's just your deal for somebody

SPEAKER_497: who's never made a film uh for netflix i don't think it makes sense you you said the same thing

SPEAKER_487: about rivian i don't know man you're projecting a little bit i i totally agree this is on the second

SPEAKER_498: floor i jump out the window right now yeah you let uh let winners be winners i think we should

SPEAKER_169: differentiate between insider trading sure bad and should not be allowed influence peddling bad should

SPEAKER_188: not be allowed and somebody out of office making monetizing their influence no no no not monetizing

SPEAKER_506: their influence and if they did that that's the problem getting paid for services is getting paid to sell tickets or books that's if that's what it is that's fine unless it's disproportionate to the

Chamath Palihapitiya: reality let's put it okay fine i agree with that mrna no wait no no no jason say you like the obamas are i would vote obama in for a third term okay didn't you get paid a 50 000 speaking fee recently

SPEAKER_183: to speak at a conference yes he did overpaid overpaid overpaid you're worth eight eight dollars in a

SPEAKER_517: fucking subway sandwich you're worth like 2500 i just got paid 15 grand to do it who are you trying to

SPEAKER_518: influence who are they paying you to influence jacal i mean honestly jacal i have no influence jason jason

SPEAKER_13: jason you're worth like like 30 less than a high-end escort okay no offense oh man that's 600 bucks

SPEAKER_527: i don't know really there's uh there's a you're saying what's 30 more than 50 you're saying it's

SPEAKER_85: like 80 grand and that's i don't know 60 70 grand i didn't realize that um all right talk to us about

SPEAKER_379: the mrna news for cancer fever that came out this past week so i think the article that you guys sent

SPEAKER_532: around was one related to uh an oncology treatment that uses mrna tech but i i think it's what i

SPEAKER_23: wanted to kind of what i thought would be interesting to talk about for a second is just zooming out

SPEAKER_27: on mrna technology as a whole um which you know has been theorized for you know the bet the potential of it's been talked about for 50 years um if we talk about real quick what what rna is remember your dna your genetic code uh you know defines um the uh uh the printing of proteins in your cells and so every three letters of dna is as an amino acid a bunch of amino acids in a in a row form a protein and that protein has some function in your body the way that the dna gets translated into protein is through these mrna snippets so a little snippet of rna is a copy of dna which floats over from the dna strand and it floats into what's called the ribosome and the ribosome is the protein printer in the cell and there's lots of ribosomes and there's lots of rna floating around all the time and it's being copied over so some chemical triggers the expression of that gene of that sequence of dna into rna that then turns into protein and so chemical induces the protein then the protein does something interesting and the protein has a function in your body and some of those proteins in human body can you know do bad things and some of them can do good things and so the idea has always been that we can actually use proteins as a way to modulate our health and modulate disease for example creating a protein that can attach to cancer cells and signal immune cells to come and kill those cancer cells as an example and some people have genetic problems where their dna prints the wrong protein and then that protein is malformed or causes some harm to your health and so the idea for rna technology has always been that instead of having dna be the source of truth for the proteins that get expressed in your body can we stick rna directly into cells and use that rna to trigger the production of proteins that can do specific things in your body and remember the biggest segment of the pharma market or a huge segment of the pharma market is what's called biologic drugs which are largely antibodies which are a type of protein that have some specific function but very many of these proteins are hard to get into the body and get them into the right place and get them to do the things we want to do so it'd be a lot easier if we could get rna into the right cells to get those cells to make the right protein to do that thing that we want them to do so everything from cancer treatment to genetic diseases and there's rna interference and there's rna or what are called oligonucleotides that can be used to block specific bad proteins from being produced in your cells or it's kind of another kind of course of treatment so making proteins that we think are therapeutic and blocking the production of bad proteins are kind of the the mainstay of this idea behind rna technology and moderna was started to pursue this effort at a flagship pioneering which is an incubation shop in in boston and they really kind of struggled for years to find the right footing of what's the right business model and the right product and the and the fda kind of struggled with approving this stuff and then boom covet hit and when covet hit it was like holy crap let's accelerate this rna technology use it for vaccines which had been in development for years and the protein that's being produced is the same protein you find on the the sars cov2 virus which triggers an immune response and builds up your immunity to that virus and now the floodgates are open and this is incredible because the frontiers in rna over the next decade could change the course of how we treat disease and change the course of um of outcomes for many diseases from genetic diseases all the way through to cancers um and so we're starting to see those floodgates open i think there's now a few a handful of these uh you know uh rna interference um products that have been approved by the fda and we're now starting to see many more of these cancer and immunotherapy drugs start to get approved as rna therapies but it really i think was lit by um uh by the breakthrough with covet and everyone kind of seeing the benefit of this and the lack of side effects and we've now got i think a validation in the market and acceptance from consumers that this technology could transform the industry in the same way that genentech transformed the pharma industry with biologic drugs in the 80s and 90s so it's super exciting um and you know we can do updates regularly on our show if you guys want to talk about more of the cool stuff that's coming out but man this is going to transform how medicine is delivered and and the potential of things that we can kind of trade let me ask you a question would

SPEAKER_35: the if we looked at the total number of deaths from covid and then the potential debt you know deaths avoided or early deaths or more life days added however you want to do it from mrna and the impact on cancer over the next say 30 or 40 years in other words the impact it would have on the people living today who live through covid do you think net net uh we'll see that the prevention of cancers

SPEAKER_538: through this new technology could actually make you know uh basically the silver lining to

SPEAKER_154: what happened during coven it's a good question um let me give you the counterpoint in the late 90s

SPEAKER_27: there was a gene editing um clinical trial that took place and they tried to uh and a patient and they and they delivered the gene editing technology via virus and so the virus goes in it spreads around and it has this this this molecule that would edit the gene and and it was for genetic disease and a patient that they gave it to a young guy got this uh this virus and he actually died from it and they shut down all clinical trials for years and it was like boom that's the end so um there are a lot of scientists a lot of doctors have argued for years that that particular case caused so many lives to be lost because we lost years of progress in being able to run clinical trials during that time and get drugs to market that could treat people and you're right maybe the opposite has happened here that while these clinical trials may have taken years and years and years to get through in a normal setting perhaps the pandemic was the accelerant we needed to get more of these to market faster and millions of people whose lives would have been lost or would be lost otherwise to cancer and other genetic diseases and so on over the years to come will be saved because these therapies will get to market faster um and so yeah it's it's a it's a great point and maybe i don't know what the calculus is between the lives lost in the pandemic versus the lives gained via these treatments

SPEAKER_23: coming to market faster but it's it's certainly a good way to think about it the the way to look at

SPEAKER_541: it we can look at the days of life lost right and if we actually could actually predict how long

SPEAKER_36: somebody's gonna live and the you know extension of life i think we can come out of this ahead uh finally on our docket london brie calls for better policing in san francisco after this insane surge in

SPEAKER_545: crime here's the video it's time that the reign of criminals who are destroying our city it is time for it to come to an end and it comes to an end when we take the steps to be more aggressive with law enforcement more aggressive with the changes in our policies and less tolerant of all the bullshit that has destroyed our city we are going to turn this around this is a city that has a population of less than 1 million people with an over 12 billion dollar budget the residents of this city have been extremely generous in providing us with the resources we need to make a difference and now the priorities we need to make must be to protect them must be to turn things around in their neighborhoods when you are in a room full of people i would say probably anywhere between 90 and 95 percent of folks could raise their hand and say that either their car has been breaking into broken into or they've been a victim in some capacity or another that is not okay that is not acceptable

SPEAKER_110: sacks i thought crime was down and that everything was great and that we were going to defund the police what is happening here what what's the big turnaround well it's it's exactly what i was

SPEAKER_102: saying that first of all i loved it i love what she said it's exactly what i've been saying for the

SPEAKER_127: last year and it's really great to hear her say the same types of things i started this this campaign

SPEAKER_229: back in january after new year's eve you had those two women uh get killed by a repeat offender who

SPEAKER_127: was released by chesa budine and then as i dug into it i saw that he was doing this all the time as

SPEAKER_229: part of his agenda of decarceration so and you know a year later like we've talked about throughout this this whole time and the city is totally degenerated into some sort of dystopian gotham-like city uh this did feel like the beginning of a batman movie i mean it was a strong statement i thought it was great this is just the beginning of what needs to be done i predict that london breed is going to

SPEAKER_169: eventually butt heads with chesa budine there is no way that he will support this agenda of fixing the city she wants to increase the police presence so like you said she is going to refund the police not defund the police chase of udine is i mean the only people he's passionate about prosecuting are police officers yeah so we have a huge problem that the police department is actually we have too few of them we're understaffed who would take that job it's not just because the budget it's also because they're demoralized and they've got you know they've got this prosecutor by the way there was a case just recently where um a repeat offender bashed a vodka ball over the head of a cop and chaser just

SPEAKER_229: announced that he's getting sent to mental health diversion instead of being prosecuted i want to what you post this yeah cop and not go to jail in the city of san francisco yes yes this is why the

SPEAKER_169: cops are demoralized so in order for london breed to fix the problem she is going and i think she's on the right track here he's got to go so here's my prediction on february 15th they are having the recall election for the education board and i predict that that board at least two of the three are going to be recalled the parents are sick and tired of it they are going to be out i think that's going to embolden london breed to then support the recall of chaser budine in the june election

SPEAKER_35: and and i think between she gets to pick his replacement yes exactly so that's what she's doing she basically flipped she was quiet up until this point uh and now progressive left

SPEAKER_430: are slowly eating it themselves yeah i mean i think this is self-preservation right chamath i

SPEAKER_182: mean if she didn't make a change here she's going to be out of office too she'll get recalled it's not self-preservation they're realizing that these policies don't work moral absolutism

SPEAKER_202: didn't work on the left or the right these guys have tried in a small scale to do what a certain

SPEAKER_13: fraction of the democratic party has been trying to do at a national level it doesn't work over

SPEAKER_106: spending under policing under educating it doesn't do anything there i think there's going to be a

SPEAKER_169: schism i think it started after the youngkin victory in virginia and i think it's going to accelerate throughout for the next year and especially after the red wave in november 2022 there's going to be a schism between liberal pragmatists and these extreme radical progressives i think um london breed represents she's obviously very liberal but i think she's pragmatic i think she wants to find solutions that work whereas chaser budin is a radical ideologue who will never change no much no matter how much

SPEAKER_229: evidence is presented to him those policies don't work and are firing i think um there's a simple

SPEAKER_27: formula the person who gets you into the mess is likely not the right person to get you out of the mess and um well said you know she she talks about san francisco having a 12 billion dollar a year budget can you guys imagine if she was the ceo of a tech company that had 12 billion dollars a year in opex and she ran the business into the ground would the board say go ahead turn it around absolutely not the board would step in and in this case the board is the citizens of san francisco and they would say let's find the right person to turn this thing around and while she stood up and said the right things and maybe it would echo and i think you know even if it echoes within david sax's heart i'm sure it's echoing in a lot of hearts of more liberal san franciscans um but i think that the apathy being asleep at the wheel and allowing the um disorganization across the departments within that city is ultimately her responsibility and i don't think that any amount of you know verbiage or action she might take at this point justifies the damage she has caused while being the leader of that city and i think that you'll and by the way i think you'll see to sax's point earlier i think you'll see the same response across the nation where folks feel like the the leaders that got them into the mess that they're in locally in cities and elsewhere around this country are gonna vote those folks out of office um because they want to change and it's the same reason we saw folks vote trump into office and the same reason we saw folks vote trump out of office the more you want to see a change the more

SPEAKER_120: you're going to make a change with your political right friedberg is so so right there is a phenomenal twitter account and his name is rob henderson and he's like a phd student right now i think he's in europe on scholarship you know he's this this this kid this guy has has an incredible background which you can talk about later but rob henderson has this thing which i love which is that you know a lot of this stuff is born out of what he calls luxury beliefs right like defunding the police is

SPEAKER_13: a luxury belief if you're like this rich middle-class cloistered person that can sit behind a gate have armed security yada yada yada because you're not living in the ghetto where the byproducts of the byproduct of defunding the police are born out or decarceration are born out or you know if you send your kid to a private school you can completely be for all these crazy radical ideas like defunding

SPEAKER_107: you know advanced placement defunding the gifted program because if your kid's smart you'll just pay for a tutor and you can do whatever you want those luxury beliefs exist more in the progressive left in such a small cohort of people than in any other political class that we have in america

SPEAKER_13: and when they get a hold of power they've now had the right to show whether those luxury beliefs

SPEAKER_34: can actually work the data says it doesn't okay let's go with competence i mean how about that like just keep people safe and make the education these luxury beliefs belong in sociolo sociology

SPEAKER_13: textbooks in anthropological articles they they they're they're better off and like we're beatniks smoke pot and talk about it over a glass of wine let me clean up something just so look i have no special

SPEAKER_127: desire to defend london breed i'm sure there are many i knew i knew that i don't know no i'm sure

SPEAKER_560: there are many better people are you wearing a london breed brand sweater is that yeah is that london

SPEAKER_563: breed tom ford tom ford oh sorry tom ford tom ford tom ford tom ford look i i'm sure there are better

SPEAKER_229: mayors but um just i i think i think we have to sort of temper what you said based on the realities of politics in san francisco which are which are this we actually have a weak mayor the mayor can't do anything yeah without the vote of the board of supervisors right and the soups are controlled right now by a bunch of crazies who are basically dean preston and manny hillary rodin who are who

SPEAKER_169: are allies of chase abu dean okay so london breed i think wants to do some good things i think that she is more pragmatic than these ideologues i think that she could have been more aggressive and more outspoken about standing up to them however earlier okay but i think she is now doing the right thing in terms of the speech she just gave basically calling for refunding the police and we're sick of the and we're going to take action those are the right things to be saying right now she did the right thing in terms of supporting the recall of this school board and what i'm saying is let's give her a chance to see if she does come out in favor of the recall of chase abu dean

SPEAKER_188: because i think that's where it's headed and if she gets on board with that and she shows she's pragmatic she may actually survive if she gets out it's happening all around the country right we saw

Chamath Palihapitiya: bill de blasio who was the first real progressive leftist elected to a major city company completely ran new york city into the ground now eric adams is gonna go clean it up right we had glenn youngkin who basically ran a centrist campaign take over virginia it's over it's over johnny let's call it it's over centrism pragmatism enough of these extreme polar opposites okay right let let antifa and

SPEAKER_107: the proud boys go and make love to each other in some deserted island it's over it's done that's

SPEAKER_85: the funniest thing i heard somebody said to me like proud boys and um what's the other group oath keepers or something they this uh woman who's gay we've said she's like oh you know it was rachel maddow she's like i think these are like gay activist groups aren't they like proud boys it sounds like a gay

SPEAKER_126: activist group i think we're seeing the the correction of the overreaction of the pandemic

SPEAKER_229: cause what neil ferguson calls pandemic politics that we that the pandemic bred a strain of radical politics that we saw all over the country and i think on both sides and i think the country is going

SPEAKER_110: to come out of that did you see these idiots go to cheesecake factory and do a sit-in without their

SPEAKER_36: masks on uh and that that's their form of protest is like we're going to go into the cheesecake factory talking about it was a cheesecake factory protest uh and now it's going national with people who are anti-mask anti-vax they're don't want to have to show their cards or wear a mask when they walk to their seat so they're literally doing sit-ins at cheesecake factory i was like i would protest

SPEAKER_149: going to a cheesecake factory i'm not going to protest in a cheesecake factory well some people

SPEAKER_127: aren't on a diet like you jake and they enjoy cheesecake ah well where are you at what's the

SPEAKER_590: number sax just give us the number what's your way around 170. i'm 174 so i'm right i'm coming

SPEAKER_13: right up behind you you hear the steps you hear the sexy sexy i'm going to tell you bro i love your sweater i'm going to drive to the city come to the mausoleum and make love to you with that sweater on

SPEAKER_475: oh my god all right everybody we'll see you next week on the all-in podcast love you besties

SPEAKER_606: love you guys love you sex back at you