SPEAKER_00: hey everybody merry christmas happy holidays it is the end of 2022 and once again we're doing our bestie awards yes at the end of the year we do our bestie awards this is where we give awards to the

SPEAKER_02: biggest winners losers and many other categories that you love with me again of course the sultan

SPEAKER_03: of science deep in his kurosawa uh vibes how are you doing sultan it was great to see you guys for

SPEAKER_04: dinner last night sax we missed you that was a lot of fun we all got together twice this week for dinner uh while we were on vacation and uh during our dinner we took a vote and sax you are now the director of the all-in summit congratulations yes congratulations yes the grift is on good my first

SPEAKER_10: act is to veto it okay there you go sorry to the fans also with us of course is the dictator himself

SPEAKER_12: chamath palihapitiya deep in his turtleneck phase and his vibes tell us about uh your winter vibes

SPEAKER_13: bestie i mean i can't believe that we all took over lake tahoe for a week together it's cool it's

SPEAKER_18: been a lot of fun i gotta say sax you'll be surprised j cal has the life hack of life hacks here he's figured out how to basically get everything pre-wired all the restaurants all the reservations it's been

SPEAKER_17: great i've loved it we've had a wonderful time it's an eight-person table for every night and he

SPEAKER_21: does it what months in advance so every night he's out every two weeks out i get a table of eight

SPEAKER_24: uh for five six nights in a row and then i invite my besties out and oddly it turned out there was only one person from jake outside just himself yes there was always a room for the rest of

David Friedberg: us to show up we had a wonderful time uh i picked up the check for the nachos and chamath brought six thousand dollars worth of wine i brought my own also to the restaurant yesterday so we could

SPEAKER_00: open the line properly it was wonderful we've had a wonderful time and of course with us looks like he had to work over the christmas break uh sax how are you doing brother you're working today i'm good i'm just hanging out somewhere well come on you can be honest you're at the twitter hq i recognize that incredible architecture and design they spent so much money on that office space beautiful that's

SPEAKER_41: definitely beautiful office they've got their own bespoke coffee shop here called the perch

SPEAKER_43: we're the people that work there too soon too soon the people are working too hard to be hanging out

SPEAKER_45: in the coffee shop okay so let's get started with our bestie awards this is uh very controversial we

SPEAKER_00: start with a political award and uh last year you know this is our just so we're clear this is not the prediction show the next week will be the prediction show this week is our winners cue the

SPEAKER_53: music yes cue the music right there okay here we go 2022 predictions this is what we predicted for

SPEAKER_55: the bestie award for biggest political winner i said ron desantis and so did david sacks we

David Sacks: predicted in 20 you said it after me you said it after me and the way you introduced it you said

SPEAKER_59: what did tucker carlson's writers come up with i said desantis and then you said desantis are you

SPEAKER_58: starting already literally i'm trying to give you your flowers okay take it easy you're gonna get your

SPEAKER_02: flowers so ron desantis obviously a big winner uh so those were those were great predictions freeberg with a wild card there he predicted putin would be a winner in 2022 that one fell a little

SPEAKER_68: flat did it not our friend freeberg not a winner no i think he you know i mean my projection was really built on what i thought would be a big kind of influence that he would gain this year you know whether he's viewed negatively or positively he's certainly at the center of the sage right now now

SPEAKER_53: chamath your 22 prediction this is your prediction last year for this year was that the biggest political winner would be xi jinping okay now we go to our actual biggest winner this is where we tell you who we thought was the biggest winner of 2022 let's start with you sax who is your biggest winner for 2022 political biggest winner this was the prediction that i nailed as as you mentioned it

SPEAKER_75: so the red wave fizzled everywhere else but it crashed over florida hard so desantis is my pick he won re-election by about 20 points and his coattails carried four new gop house seats which happens to be the exact size of the gop majority uh several polls have now shown him beating donald trump by significant margins for the 2024 gop nomination he is shattering fundraising records florida is now the fastest growing state so he is my pick for the biggest winner uh political winner of 2022 great

SPEAKER_80: who is your biggest political winner chamath i mean it's obvious it's uh xi jinping

SPEAKER_13: you know there is no single person in the world that is now as powerful as this one man he um has complete authoritarian control over 1.2 odd billion people and 20 of the world's gdp and a large amount of the world's debt including a lot of us dollar debt and so you know it's pretty there's there's it's hard to find anybody that won nearly as much as he did okay now to you friedberg

SPEAKER_87: who is your biggest political winner of 2022 i mean i think your desantis and xi jinping calls were

SPEAKER_68: really like good i think the biggest surprising winner for me is like you know unexpected and that would be zelinski um from the ukraine i don't think going into this year people paid as much attention to him he was certainly not a sung hero but coming uh through this conflict and i think leading the storyline about our common enemy of the west um and common enemy of democracy being vladimir putin uh really kind of made him a superstar and a hero on a global stage and i think that's evidenced by the fact that he's in the white house and he gave an address to the u.s congress yesterday so i would make

SPEAKER_91: him kind of the biggest winner of the year it's hard to go against desantis so um you know he he clearly uh has as sacks correctly pointed out gone into the lead we'll see if he can be trump in the

David Friedberg: primaries i have my doubts but um he does seem to be pulling in some of those moderates right i don't

SPEAKER_15: understand why you guys say he's a political winner what did he win he hasn't won the nomination yet

SPEAKER_82: he got re-elected to a state that he had before 2022 so what did he win exactly well i think a couple

SPEAKER_73: of things one is when he won election to the governorship four years ago it was by less than

SPEAKER_75: one percent it was a tiny margin of victory this was margin of almost twenty percent he had coattails and he is now the front runner for the gop nomination in 24 i think you can argue you can make the case that maybe he's peaking too soon well i'm glad you brought that up because if you look

SPEAKER_13: at the data you know i think in the last seven or eight nomination cycles the person that's been

SPEAKER_82: leading the popularity contest going into the aisle caucuses has not won the nomination he's peaking too

SPEAKER_75: soon almost that's a possibility uh because when you're the front runner everyone takes shots at you on the other hand he if he stays this dominant he will drive out other contenders out of the primary and he may be able to solidify it and if if it can just be de santa's versus trump in the primary he has stands much better shot than if it's trump versus a bunch of other challengers and i think that if he continues to pull this well within the republican party i think trump might not run again because trump definitely does not want to risk being a loser in the republican primary so yeah there's always front runner risk but it's hard to say that coming out of this year that he wasn't a huge political winner okay if we're going to challenge other people's picks i would maybe challenge zielinski there's no question that he's been a global media hero but two-thirds of kiev is currently without power eighty percent of kiev doesn't have water thirty percent of the ukrainian power stations have been destroyed nearly half of the country is without power uh there's something like eight million displaced ukrainians in the country and over a hundred thousand ukrainians have been killed in this war so yes he's been a very strong charismatic war leader for them but freeberg your response i'm not

SPEAKER_68: advocating for his performance as a leader i'm advocating for his

SPEAKER_91: accumulation of political goodwill and that's it okay uh and he is winning the war uh so is that winning well in in war they say there nobody wins uh but it's certainly better than having your country taken over by putin so some would argue that's winning let's go to biggest

SPEAKER_00: losers biggest losers uh in 2022 we predicted again this is our predictions from last year and then we'll go on to our actuals for this year uh last year we predicted uh chamath said the progressive left sacks said nancy pelosi freeberg you said u.s influence globally interesting and i said the extremes both biden and trump let's go uh with our predictions i'm sorry with our actuals for this year

SPEAKER_53: chamath why don't you go first this time who is your biggest political loser for 2022 i mean i don't

SPEAKER_13: think it's as written about as much but the progressive left did see as much failure as the

SPEAKER_19: maga right so they were a huge loser i mean to the extent that anybody thought that leftist you know quasi-socialist policies and politics was a winning strategy i think that was pretty soundly refuted

SPEAKER_13: even in places that were pretty staunchly democrat it was really difficult for the progressive left to do much of anything but lose so i think that was a really powerful and important repudiation and i think it it's marginalizes them to a bunch of you know kooks almost

SPEAKER_65: and i think that that's really healthy for politics going forward so your prediction and your actual are

SPEAKER_13: going to be the same the progressive left i think they were the biggest political loser in the united

SPEAKER_02: states at least okay yeah elizabeth warren we don't hear people talking about elizabeth warren

SPEAKER_13: or bernie sanders much this year yeah and i think that the biggest political loser outside of the united states was probably the european union okay you want to expand on that a little bit if you just think about the corner that they painted themselves into how much they had to basically literally

SPEAKER_19: go 180 degrees away from what their policies were you know there was a huge raft of whether it was green esg kind of woke liberal politics that manifested itself in all kinds of national security decisions and energy decisions that in this last year they literally had to undo in order to stay alive

SPEAKER_13: and um that makes that whole political construct i think very fragile so they were they were a pretty

SPEAKER_88: big political loser outside of the united states okay sax it's gonna be hard here to guess this one

SPEAKER_53: but sax who is your biggest political loser in 2022 i have no idea who you're going to pick by the

SPEAKER_72: way i got pelosi right last year that she did lose the gavel so you've got to say that the war in ukraine

SPEAKER_75: was the biggest event of the year and obviously you can spread the blame around to a lot of people starting with putin because he's one who ordered the invasion but i would say this is a slightly different take on the category which is biggest political blunder occurred on january 27th of this year when blinken said that nato's door is open and must remain open and that is our commitment he basically shut the door he kept nato's door open but shut the door on any means of a diplomatic off-ramp to end this conflict by promising russia that ukraine would not become part of nato that was the single biggest diplomatic blunder of this year or maybe the last couple of decades because there's a good chance we could have avoided this disastrous war if we had just been willing to

SPEAKER_85: close nato's door wonderful great crisp answer thank you for that nice and tight friedberg who's

SPEAKER_04: your biggest political loser for 2022 it was a tie for me between jerome powell and liz truss liz truss just has to get recognition here for only being in office for 45 days as prime minister of the

SPEAKER_68: united kingdom i mean i think that is uh cannot be overlooked uh the uh uh some of the the policy and and folks that she put in uh in office uh caused you know massive chaos it was just a a clear uh

SPEAKER_04: dysfunction over a very short period of time uh jerome powell i think this was a big surprise this year to see how the fed chair became um so politicized uh and and his role became so politicized both kind of the the the left and the right finding reasons to question uh his leadership um and his decision making the failure to raise rates soon enough led to massive inflation is what you'll hear from one contingent of politicians and the public at large and then the rate at which he's raising rates now to catch up to the and to calm inflation is causing people to complain on the other side so there is really

SPEAKER_68: no one that seems to be happy with jerome powell and i think that uh that that was a shooting star that

SPEAKER_91: seems to have completely lost its luster okay so the fed yes good pull there okay mine is pretty clear

SPEAKER_00: and objectively it is of course the gop the red wave failed it turned into a trickle uh trump is back and i believe there's a good chance he will win the primary roe v wade a complete unmitigated disaster for republicans they caught the car and plus marriage equality and having to deal with that women and the lgbt community vote and they have long memories the gop the biggest political losers

David Friedberg: for me okay i'm sure sax has no rebuttal there so we will move on to the next category

SPEAKER_13: uh which is oh by the way if you say it that way then you know the biggest political loser in 2022 were women look at like fundamental human rights were stripped away from 50 percent of the population so that's not cool and they could have left it alone and they

SPEAKER_73: could have left it alone well if if what you mean is that the issue was sent to the states and each state then gets to decide then you're right but eat but if you look at the battles have happened at the

SPEAKER_75: states even red states like kentucky and kansas have rejected the the subsequent political push to outlaw abortion so it has not turned out to be just by the fact that all of these red states basically

SPEAKER_13: re confirmed and enshrined a woman's right to choose may actually go more to show that the supreme court is totally out of touch and that they didn't need to touch roe v wade and the fact that they did

SPEAKER_82: opened up you know a huge can of worms in 50 states that now go and need to go and adjudicate this thing where it looked like actually that decision even back in the day even though the way that it was done you know there was a lot of room for improvement clearly everybody agrees with that but was actually

SPEAKER_19: after you know 50 plus years reasonable law and so now that you took that law away now folks even in the red states are like no it was fine which means that this whole thing was a huge political gambit

SPEAKER_91: more than it was actual societal intention okay so we are going to move on now i just i'll add my final two cents to that as i said i do think women and the lgbt community have very long memories and the

SPEAKER_90: people who are in the moderate are not going to forget how they were treated by the gop in this

SPEAKER_00: specific issue so biggest political surprise we didn't do predictions last year but i'll just run

SPEAKER_02: down what everybody said was their political surprise i said the fact that kamala harris was sidelined was pretty surprising to me and uh that's continued chamath you said joe manchin was your biggest political surprise glenn youngkin uh winning sacks that was your biggest surprise and friedberg the january 6 crowd making it into the capital during the insurrection was your biggest political surprise so here we go our 2022 biggest political surprise sacks let's start with you you

David Sacks: have a lot to say about politics go well the biggest political surprise to me was no red wave so uh i admit i got this prediction wrong you know i got all my previous ones right jake house i'm gonna

SPEAKER_75: admit i got this one wrong you know i believe that the electorate would focus on the fundamentals three quarters of the country thought were on the wrong track three quarters think we're in a recession nevertheless the republicans did not do nearly as well as predicted they only gained nine seats in the house they actually lost a seat in the senate and i think that that had something to do with candidate equality and of course the whole election denial narrative uh basically was a disaster for them i hope that the republicans move on and stop talking about the past what voters want to hear

SPEAKER_53: about is the future freeberg did you have a biggest political surprise for 2022 freeberg yeah it's also

SPEAKER_68: the failure of the red wave i mean that was my my pick i think the consensus going into the election election was with uh you know rising inflation and the disdain that everyone had for the way politicians kind of managed us through covet and then managed us through the economic recovery it's uh it was inevitable to see a flip and it didn't happen i think obviously we we talked about why that is but

SPEAKER_120: that was a big surprise for everyone chamath what was your biggest political surprise of 2022 chamath

SPEAKER_82: polyhapeteer the absolute toothlessness of mega and donald trump i mean he was just a scarlet letter

SPEAKER_13: if you were anywhere near this guy you were gonna lose and that's surprising considering how traditional republicans were pandering to him up until frankly just a few months ago so i think that we exposed the emperor of has having no clothes and that he marginalizes and sidelines candidates uh into a fringe following that cannot go mainstream that was uh it was really surprising to see how stark that was

David Friedberg: this year fantastic i'm going to build on your chamath uh i had two here number two was roe v wade but

SPEAKER_00: we've beaten that uh i think it would just get us disgusted as much as we possibly could my number one building on your smart is that despite what's happened with trump the documents the the uh his cases in the united states in new york uh and about taxes despite all of this the january 6 insurrection despite all this trump is still viable i can't believe he's still viable and that he is going to be out there in the primaries and he's going to have to debate desantis and i don't know that desantis can

SPEAKER_02: beat him in a debate i think he might uh win so this is completely scary for both me and sax i think

David Sacks: it's terrifying it's sax's nightmare and mine well i think he's mainly viable in the minds of the maga

SPEAKER_75: dead enders and the mainstream media who want to keep him alive and the buying administration wants to keep him alive they'll do anything to keep him alive and in the news and you love keeping him in the news so it's a yes it's a codependent relationship between the mainstream media which you sometimes

SPEAKER_147: front for and trump oh be careful telling me what i think we need to end this codependency j cal

David Friedberg: well i wish the republican party would finally take ownership of this disaster that is trump and tell him that he has no business but you guys keep him in the game and the fact that he's viable again

SPEAKER_00: your personal nightmare and mine okay biggest business winner everybody excited to get off politics right now and get to our kill zone which is business so last year we had predictions in this

David Friedberg: category i had said disney that's an up and down prediction i'll get into that in a moment

SPEAKER_12: tramath you said small and medium-sized businesses the old smbs sax said rise of the rest the flyover states and freeberg you said stripe uh chamath let's start with you smbs what did you get right what

SPEAKER_13: did you get wrong here uh i mean i whiffed it just completely missed the global macro shift that we embarked on in full force starting in q1 of this year it was it is the most important business

SPEAKER_19: story of the year it's just like we have an absolute complete regime change and by the way that regime change is so complete and so you know um thorough that it even touched japan just a few weeks ago or sorry just a few days ago where japan who fight you know finally yielded on this idea you're gonna we're gonna have negative interest rates and yield curve control even they finally broken and raised rates so it is an absolute worldwide sea change in how we need to think about risk and i think that's worth talking about a little bit later in the show but that was the

SPEAKER_75: single biggest business story of the all that's what jama said i missed this too even though on another prediction when you asked what the biggest business loser would be i think i said that it would be asset classes that had been pumped up by the feds money printing because yeah so i got that part

SPEAKER_59: right but what i didn't connect it to were all the asset classes actually got pummeled so i kind of conceptually understood that rates were rising but i totally underestimated the magnitude of the shift the way that gross stocks would get hammered the way that crypto would get destroyed the fact that like tiger basically got blown out of the industry i mean i had the right general intuition but i didn't translate it into the specific asset types and the magnitude of the shift and also the like

SPEAKER_79: what jama said a real regime change now and how markets are viewing stock performance it's really

SPEAKER_91: incredible uh freeberg let's get in on this this is somewhere where you can contribute deeply what do you think about your take last year and you still believe in stripe yeah i mean look it's a it's a

SPEAKER_68: business that obviously benefited greatly from the pandemic and the adoption of um you know the payment processing infrastructure that they've built across their across various kind of e-commerce platforms it's i've been i'm not an investor so i don't have any numbers but there are public reports that have highlighted that the revenue increased 66 this year they've indicated that they're probably going to experience significant revenue slow down with the recession ahead but it still seems like a super high quality business and you know valuation wise who knows what things are going to be worth when they ultimately come to market there's certainly no one going to uh going public right now so at some point we'll see you know whether valuations play out but it seems like it continues to be a very strong one of the strongest private businesses that's being built in silicon valley we will get to 2022

David Friedberg: biggest business winners in one second i will just say for disney yeah man what a swing bob chapek uh in and then out and now bob eiger back so i feel like i got this one wrong and right at the same time i still believe in the company deeply i think they're going to have a big win let's get to our actual

SPEAKER_53: biggest winner of 2022. sax why don't you lead us off with your biggest winner of 2022 for business

SPEAKER_73: i said lockheed martin along with other defense stocks uh lockheed martin which makes javelins and

SPEAKER_75: high mars is up 40 in the past year when most of the market's been weighed down northrop grumman's also up almost 40 percent and even some of the lesser performers like raytheon and general dynamics are up about almost 20 percent in a terrible market environment the fact of the matter is war is terrible but it appears to be good business we've sent so many weapons to ukraine that there's recent press reports that are the u.s stockpiles of missiles javelins and stingers are now depleted so these companies are going to keep doing well for the next year at least now there's a new appropriation sailing through something like 44 billion of new funding for the war it's now over a hundred billion dollars mcconnell says this is a republicans number one priority this is now a bipartisan concern and if you think the war is expensive just wait for reconstruction that's estimated to cost roughly a trillion dollars to

David Friedberg: build uh ukraine back sex can i ask you a question about that are these when we uh fund these wars i've heard uh different versions of this can't get a clear answer when we provide weapons uh and systems like this are they not on account and we ask for money back at some point do you know the

SPEAKER_73: answer to that question you think we're gonna get money back are you kidding me it seems to be

David Friedberg: sometimes that we do so that's why i was asking i think it's something there hasn't been clarity on

SPEAKER_73: look i think the the war has been phenomenal business for the military industrial complex

SPEAKER_75: so that's what we're seeing here uh not so great for the rest of the economy freeberg what do you got

SPEAKER_04: yeah i mean i think you guys will remember last november i predicted energy and defense to be the

SPEAKER_68: best performing stocks for this year sax is right i think defense is up 40 so i i kind of went with the bigger oil and gas companies um are up uh you know across the board about 47 percent uh in terms of equity value in the public markets a year to date uh compared to the s p being down about 20 percent uh so over the short term i would argue oil and gas companies but i think that um over the long term there were a couple of big breakthrough moments uh that i would give kind of you know the winner uh in business that will benefit over the long term to open ai and to fusion startups and we'll talk more about why uh for those two obviously later when we get to the biggest winner in tech and science um but yeah short-term oil and gas they benefited from the supply constraints and the conflict in the ukraine and the longer term i think open ai and fusion startups well and by the way i mean just

SPEAKER_75: just to give freeberg some credit here you actually predicted the war or you predicted a war i don't

SPEAKER_68: know if you predicted this war but you predicted yeah i predicted the war and putin kind of rising to the

SPEAKER_59: center stage and the defensive energy dog that was a huge prediction because i don't think most people even most analysts well they were surprised even when the invasion happened i think people were still very surprised both that putin would order it but also if you study the situation i think you got

SPEAKER_79: to be surprised that we didn't negotiate harder to try and prevent it i traded it too i bought i bought

SPEAKER_160: an energy etf so it worked out for me okay chamath your biggest business winner of 2022 uh nick can

SPEAKER_13: throw it up but it's basically any single person that understands the following formula so if you this is the this is the capital asset pricing model so what is this this is like before you make any

SPEAKER_82: investment what it actually tells you is here's the rate of return that you need to generate above

SPEAKER_19: the risk-free rate in order for you to justify making that investment and if you really understood the capital asset pricing model going into 2022 it would have been difficult for you to not make

SPEAKER_82: money because all of a sudden as the 10-year flexed up and as you know the volatility particularly of things like tech stocks went crazy you could have figured out where you to park your money and all these people that have built businesses around this capital asset pricing model so you have companies obviously so you know you have sectors of the economy like defense or energy stocks consumer goods and

SPEAKER_19: staples they all had moments where they all did well but if you take it one step above the organizations

SPEAKER_82: that actually ran big macro books or really understood how to algorithmically implement this capital asset pricing model just ran roughshod over the markets and you know said in a different way it's sort of my background which is you know if you understood the capital asset pricing model you would

SPEAKER_94: have been a massive bear and the bear got fed this year to a degree that none of us could have anticipated

SPEAKER_132: okay so am i correct saying the capital asset pricing model is the biggest winner or no people that

David Friedberg: understood it people that understood it got it okay and for my biggest winner i went with chat gpt open ai

SPEAKER_53: and their partner microsoft why did i pick that as the biggest winner well uh on my other podcast

SPEAKER_02: this week in startups we played a game chat gpt versus the first result of google's and molly and i could not tell the difference and in fact we picked chat gpt's answers often above google's google one of the

SPEAKER_00: greatest uh businesses and franchises ever created has no answer at currently for chat gpt because google's google's business model is to get you to click on an ad between links if you give the actual

SPEAKER_02: answer then the person doesn't stops clicking if they stop clicking google stops making money there is no business model in search if the person gets their answer because they're done this is an existential threat like we have not seen and our friend sam altman has a line chat gpt open ai with microsoft microsoft i think is going to release a and there's a prediction as well a search engine with open ai that has a significant impact on google's franchise we didn't think this would ever happen and

SPEAKER_53: it's here okay the biggest losers in business we made predictions last year i said in 2020 i i predicted in 2021 the biggest loser in 2022 would be crypto by the way friedberg you agreed with me

SPEAKER_188: and we nailed it you agreed you agreed with me well yes that's correct we were in agreement how about

SPEAKER_189: that we were in that's the area we were in agreement sacks independent you said uh and chamath visa

SPEAKER_00: slash mastercard we'll get into that and sacks you said asset classes benefiting from government pumps

SPEAKER_65: very interesting the fed stopping qe interesting anybody have comments on their predictions or each other's

SPEAKER_190: predictions from last year on a percentage basis david absolutely nailed it sacks absolutely nailed it

SPEAKER_13: on a dollar basis the biggest business loser of this year was big tech and i think that you saw

SPEAKER_19: three things happen which i think are important for the future the first was it was the most crowded trade both by professional money managers as well as retail and that fever finally broke in the last half of uh in the second half of this year and now going into into these last few weeks you're seeing a lot of panicked selling to cover losses and other things so i think that um number one that happened number two regulators basically said we're going to go after these guys every single which way we can and then number three i think it started to change the innovation cycle where people now actually believe that they can't outspend because folks won't tolerate it and the things that they're spending their money on seem kind of foolish and so i think the you know big tech is probably not discussed enough but it was a huge loser for this year in terms of what

SPEAKER_53: absolutely 2022's actual biggest business loser chamat says big tech freeberg who is your biggest

SPEAKER_68: business loser for 2022 i mean this one's just a simple ftx i mean that was such a uh incredible uh revelation of the scale of the scam and the fraud and the craziness that went on and i think what was interesting about ftx is it had implications not just for crypto and not just for kind of offshore regulatory and not just for fraud but also for the investors we had a whole debate about whether the press and journalists failed to kind of you know appropriately investigate this guy rather than give him accolades because he said the right things which he said he did over im and investors failed to do relevant amounts of due diligence or form a board and have proper governance over him because they

SPEAKER_04: wanted to be part of the hot new thing and everyone had capital to deploy and i think what was interesting about the ftx failure is it didn't just it wasn't just a failure due to fraud but it revealed so many

SPEAKER_68: parts of kind of you know i call it uh um you know systemic laziness and and systemic kind of blind eye and systemic bias uh that allowed and enabled this to happen it was really a revealing kind of failure and that's why i kind of gave it the the award mr david sachs who is your biggest business loser of 2022

SPEAKER_73: well you kind of mentioned this uh i picked bob jpeck who's the former disney ceo he was eiger's

SPEAKER_75: handpicked successor three years ago then the pandemic hit which shut down the theme parks but then i think the big mistake was allowing himself to be malmout by woke employees into picking a fight with desantis over the so-called don't say gay bill uh that caused desantis to retaliate by threatening the special privileges that disney enjoys in the state and then he had eiger undermining him behind the scenes this was revealed i think it was in a wall street journal story that he was grousing to insiders that chapeck was not soliciting his advice and he was undermining confidence in with the board

SPEAKER_77: and uh recently chapeck was forced out and i was put back in charge fantastic choice for the biggest

SPEAKER_16: loser how brutal does eiger look in that wall street journal piece i mean would anybody work for him

SPEAKER_91: yes he is incredible he looks terrible i agree i read that piece twice actually

SPEAKER_132: the cfo calling him up she was the one who stabbed him uh you know and knifed uh chapek it's a great

SPEAKER_30: wall i don't think that i don't think that that happens without the support of the person waiting in

SPEAKER_12: the wings hey listen there's a couple of jobs you never quit you never quit a hit tv show you never quit a hit band like roger watered is with pink floyd why didn't they just extend you never quit

SPEAKER_201: the disney job it's the best job as a job in the world but jason why go through never quit why go

SPEAKER_82: through the theatrics of like grooming somebody putting them in your job and then undermining

SPEAKER_15: them like i i all i'm saying is if you're i think he made a mistake i think he made a mistake he quit

SPEAKER_13: and he wanted it and also if like if you're a good up-and-coming exec i mean what do you do if like all of a sudden like you know you have the opportunity to get groomed for that job it just seems really

SPEAKER_02: risky yeah i mean i i think bob eiger realized when he in that piece they say he went on his yacht his wife didn't come with him the wall street journal piece is incredible and he's got bored and he's 70 something years old he's only in early 70s why would you give up the greatest job in the world so he went back and he took it back didn't disney have a mandatory retirement age but this is my

SPEAKER_82: point is he was so he was so prolific he could have extended it why not just extend it and be done with

SPEAKER_208: it yeah did you guys read his the book he wrote uh that right of a lifetime what is it yeah and i

SPEAKER_04: think that what was interesting about that book was the entire thing was built around a series of deals that he did it was like i did this acquisition then i did this acquisition then i did this acquisition and everything for him was building this this this empire by doing deals and someone whose storyline a narrative that they tell of themselves that's built as a series of deals is a deal junkie and you're not going to be a deal junkie where that's your excitement that's the thrill that's the adventure that you get out of life and then you go and sit on a yacht you're not doing any deals sitting on a yacht

SPEAKER_68: and you're going to want to get back to that and i think it's less about kind of management and product and it was much more about being in the midst of doing deals and that's probably why he came back

SPEAKER_75: if this was part of igor's diabolical strategy to get back let me just say like one of the ways he did it i mean chapec had the right instincts which is when this whole florida debate happened over

SPEAKER_215: don't say gay highly contentious no comment no comment his instinct was just to stay out of it but then igor made some statements about how companies have to live up their values and that kind of stuff

SPEAKER_59: and then the employee started you know again you know and now allowing him to get involved and he took the bait and he got involved and what he didn't expect is that desantis wasn't going to just roll

SPEAKER_79: over desantis hit him back really hard and it cost them economically and then yeah and in the first

SPEAKER_19: interview that eiger gave when asked about this question he was like no comment yeah he's like

SPEAKER_219: we're not getting involved in politics anymore we're not getting involved in politics anymore it was

SPEAKER_222: hilarious that was hilarious he nudged chapec to basically get involved in politics and then

SPEAKER_224: chapec became cannon fodder for desantis exactly and then i guess like we're out of this now

SPEAKER_226: i mean how diabolical is that oh it's so diabolical so dirty the other two things were

David Friedberg: chapec said we're going to take away your pnls to each of the leaders that is like just neutering them he basically said everybody's under the cfo everybody's going to be on one pnl that infuriated

SPEAKER_00: all the creatives and then he went to war with scarlett johansson over a 10 million dollar settlement for her black widow he couldn't handle talent he couldn't handle the politics and he wanted

SPEAKER_02: to control everybody's pnl just unforced error after unforced error congratulations to my guy

SPEAKER_229: bye bye girl i own the stock do you think he was diabolical at all oh in the best possible way in

SPEAKER_205: the best possible way which means that disney stock is going to go up yes i'm buying more disney stock this

SPEAKER_75: year is is all like the woke progressive politics that he projects is that all just a game to mask what a viper's nest their executive suite really is are you telling me that disney is a political

SPEAKER_12: corporation after eisner and bob eiger and all of this michael ovitz i mean it's the history of disney it's the greatest job in the world it is game of thrones to get that job and bob eiger got it back

SPEAKER_233: he's my guy i'm sticking with him okay they have the best ip in the business i don't care how he gets

SPEAKER_21: that job back he's awesome i gotta say the ip at warner media is a real strong contender i mean that white lotus we were talking about this yesterday how good white lotus season two was

SPEAKER_04: all right let's open up this discussion it is incredible how hbo produces extraordinary hit after extraordinary hit the quality and the consistency of that quality coming out of hbo is like nothing else you'll go i mean look avatar 2 i did not like avatar 1 i thought it was junk avatar 2 is getting panned for being junk as well not everything that comes out of disney is a hit they certainly have the best franchises but man warner media has a lot to contend with and uh you know they could end up

SPEAKER_68: being a real challenger to disney in the years ahead sacks did you watch the white lotus season

David Friedberg: two yes sir no problem it is absolutely fantastic we have to do a little fan service here what did you love chamath about white lotus season two give the fans a little service here oh wait it's on

SPEAKER_239: season two i didn't even see season one i don't even know what you guys are talking about okay it's the

SPEAKER_04: hottest show in television well i'll tell you what's incredible is there's a diversity of characters and they weave the super like you know interesting story together but each of the characters are so distinct and the characters are played so well i mean we were talking about um you know we were kind of at dinner last night talking about who our favorite character was on the show and everyone has

SPEAKER_21: a different answer and everyone has a different reason and then there are characters that you hate but the fact that you hate them and the fact that you despise them draws you and you're drawn into

SPEAKER_04: these characters i think that the the way that they kind of portrayed and the way that the characters were acted by the um by the actors uh and then the way that they all kind of weave together to tell this extraordinary story uh it was really um it was really compelling and it was like just super impressive uh directing acting writing everything there are a handful of scenes in season one and

SPEAKER_19: season two which i would say are unbelievably psychologically violent and there's just no other way to describe like how they just expo and and by the way they do it with simple shots very simple dialogue it's almost nonchalant in the way that they present these truth bombs and you have to sit there and process it and you're just like oh my god it's just it's wave after wave it's an incredible

SPEAKER_245: incredibly well-written show the character development is extraordinary amazing the production and set

SPEAKER_21: design by the way also i mean when you when you watch it don't you want it you want to go to those

SPEAKER_19: do you guys remember in season one sacks will remember this because sacks watched it season one the family is sitting at the table where they're watching the hawaiian dance and paula the guest of the family gets up and leaves she can't take it anymore and then the next day they're in a discussion about it and the father says something about i think hierarchy or imperialism or something and it goes around the table and she just deadpan she says well maybe it's just time for others to eat talking about you know like fixing these wrongs and i had to listen to it two or three times i'm like oh my god that is that is a line that just sticks in your brain there's a few of those in in that

SPEAKER_21: show that i think are excited and i was saying like they they really draw you in the set design

SPEAKER_04: the production design is so compelling you want to be there you want to be in that experience with

SPEAKER_256: those characters uh yeah you're like totally drawn the pineapple sweet i mean and then in this season

SPEAKER_68: that whole hotel i looked up the hotel by the way online they hadn't you know their own set design people come in and redo the hotel but it is an actual hotel it's a real they just made it so magical yeah

SPEAKER_259: it was such an incredible oh freeberg we should make that the host of the all-in summit 2023

SPEAKER_208: sorry i'm working on my jennifer coolidge tell your director uh david sacks what you'd like to do for

SPEAKER_65: you yeah my uh biggest loser was crypto and i think there'll be a subsequent domino to fall which is

SPEAKER_02: now that gary g head of the sec has ftx and the ftt tokens as the grift he's going to go down the list of other tokens and he is going to start doing more prosecutions of grifts in crypto biggest loser for me all right biggest business surprise let's see if we can get sacks back engaged in the conversation

SPEAKER_00: now that we're not talking about art and life sacks last year your biggest business surprise

SPEAKER_266: sacks just produced a movie about dolly i know he is i'm joking with him he's a true artist and he

SPEAKER_53: sold it to mark cuban congratulations on the sale uh david i guess me and cuban are besties now fantastic in 2021 our selections for business biggest business surprises i was very surprised by dows chamath by moderna sacks by tech moving to miami and friedberg you were surprised by nfts what were we surprised by in 2022 freeberg we'll start with you elon musk's acquisition of twitter i think took

SPEAKER_04: everyone by surprise it kind of went i mean this is such an obvious one but it went from a whimsical fantasy and idea to suddenly you know cold-hearted reality with uh you know a huge kind of negotiating saga that took place and court battles and all the drama that ensued and here's what i think was most surprising about it it wasn't just the acquisition and the and the fact that the acquisition closed but it was the the incredible veracity of the head cutting cost cutting the demands that people return to work return to the office and then what was most surprising that followed that is the impact that that seems to have had on the rest of silicon valley valley where now nearly every vc i speak with every ceo every board is looking to elon's behavior for right or for wrong for you know moral moral or not and saying that's a model for how you can challenge your team to achieve the impossible in an impossibly difficult environment which is what we find ourselves in and so i think it was a series of surprising events he bought twitter he made these incredible changes and then everyone seems to be looking to that as a model and it's really resonated it's created a rippling effect i'm not saying it's good i'm not saying it's bad i'm not saying it's moral right or wrong um but the whole thing uh was really an incredible surprising unexpected saga this year uh so i i give the elon acquisition of twitter kind of the award

SPEAKER_13: chamath uh do you have a biggest surprise i would say it's uh jerome powell and the fed and their staunch hawkishness uh on inflation i think everybody wants all of this to be over and i think we're definitely in

SPEAKER_82: the last few innings of it but i think what was surprising was how consistent and how hawkish and how bearish jerome powell was every chance he got he didn't capitulate or waiver from the key message which he was saying from the beginning which is we have the tools to fix a broken economy but we don't have the tools to fix runaway inflation and so we will raise rates higher than anyone expects and keep them there longer than anybody wants because on the back end of it we can fix a few broken bones but if left unchecked this could really do a lot of damage and i think that that was an enormous surprise that all the political pressure in the world all of the financial capital markets pressure in the world did nothing to change his position sachs what was your biggest business surprise

SPEAKER_73: of 2022 david sachs's biggest well it was it was a pretty big surprise that adobe bought figma for 20 billion uh that price tag in this environment pretty big surprise but i gotta say i think freeberg

SPEAKER_75: nailed it uh gotta say that the business saga of the year was elon buying twitter first the liberal media was up in arms that he might do it then they insisted that he must complete the deal in any event he he did ultimately buy the company and now he's affecting his changes i agree that's the big business story this year certainly was a big surprise for me that i got deposition for six

SPEAKER_275: hours is it a surprise that you're sitting in twitter's headquarters today right now yeah it is

SPEAKER_75: a surprise but just by the way the rumors and speculation are getting out of hand i am not a candidate for a ceo of twitter so i want to put the kapash on that because it's starting to get out of

SPEAKER_275: hand jacal the job is yours my friend congratulations all right i guess uh let me know when i start

SPEAKER_21: you've earned it you've worked hard you've demonstrated you're confident yeah jacal the

SPEAKER_280: last man standing last man standing outwit outlaws now that sax has said he is not taking the job a

SPEAKER_282: bunch of libs have just stopped taking xanax the libs biggest fear was sax was gonna get that job

David Friedberg: we just canceled a bunch of xanax uh prescriptions uh congratulations to the libs sax is not going to be your overlord on twitter for me it's obvious uh the twitter acquisition is the biggest surprise by far and away freeberg i couldn't have summarized it better i will say in six weeks what we have

SPEAKER_00: seen there is nothing short of extraordinary have there been bumps in the road has it been a little chaotic at times perhaps but the features that are coming fast and furious are going to be the story going forward you've seen uh twitter for business sax had his fingerprints all that you may fingerprints all over that uh you may have seen uh hashtags for uh stock tickers i was a briefly involved in that there are going to be so many features coming and this is what elon's zone of excellence is

SPEAKER_53: product he is an engineer he's a product genius the proof is in the pudding whether it's rocket ships or the cars we're going to see a parade of features i predict in another six to 18 weeks we will see

SPEAKER_00: people talking about all the great features in twitter not any of the transitional issues and people will be shocked my runner-up metastock collapsing that was my runner-up for the biggest

David Friedberg: business uh shock is that they just absolutely collapsed i was just going to add to what you're

SPEAKER_75: saying about new features launching while we've been sitting here on this pod and i've been checking my twitter feed there's a new feature where there's a view count on all of your tweets and all of

SPEAKER_59: everybody else's tweets as well so you can see how many views a tweet is generating so this tweet that i posted yesterday has 1.5 million views it's like incredible so it really shows the incredible reach of twitter and anybody who's thinking about going to like some knockoff like macedon or something is going to contend with the fact that it doesn't have nearly the distribution so i think this really shows the power of twitter and then dave rubin noticed my i tweeted this just a second ago and dave rubin noted that the new york times doesn't have anywhere near the views for its tweets because they bought all their followers which is interesting i didn't know that but i just went over to the new york times profile and my tweets are routinely getting 10 to 20 times more reach more views than theirs so this is a super interesting indicator of who actually people are paying attention to

David Friedberg: on twitter it's fascinating this is fascinating i'm looking at my own i just did how do you give a 30 billion dollar fraud bail referring to spf and that was just less than an hour ago no it's 30 minutes yeah an hour ago and i have 50 000 views already which is uh 10 of my follower count so this is

SPEAKER_00: an extraordinary you see right next to likes retweets quote tweets the feature train is coming and this will change the dialogue all these haters who are like twitter is going to go down

David Friedberg: who are rooting against elon let me tell you something if a guy can land two rockets at a time

SPEAKER_00: and he can literally restart the electric car movement and he becomes the number one car in any category he releases a car in how on earth would you bet against him to build software you have to be

SPEAKER_68: idiotic this is way too much i mean you guys like we should sorry it's a feature it's like an ad

SPEAKER_289: yeah you're selling a product for a company that you guys are working at like i mean come on i'm not working at the company well you guys are advisors right i mean hey nick can you let me show

SPEAKER_59: one other feature something that's cool nick let's go yeah keep going features let's go pull up my

SPEAKER_75: profile real quick welcome to this week in twitter oh my god twitter now has affiliate badges you can see i've got a little craft ventures badge next to my name so if you you should be able to click on it actually to get to the craft ventures profile yeah so you're going to be able to

SPEAKER_59: affiliate users with business accounts and it creates kind of secondary badges after the blue check i think even the corporate journalists are going to love this because if you're a new york times writer you'll have a little nyt badge next to your name wall street journal whatever you'll have that little badge so more and more people are going to get blue checks and then people are going to have secondary or even tertiary badges that are basically specific to their affiliations okay so i think

SPEAKER_295: let's make sure we get let's get an all-in badge we are going to have all-in badges really soon

SPEAKER_299: awesome okay let's go for free work free work sorry that was our biggest business surprises and we just canceled your account freeberg you're locked out we just took away no one goes to it anyway it's

SPEAKER_303: all good don't worry about it okay best science breakthrough here's an easy one for us to do

SPEAKER_65: 2022 biggest science breakthrough what have you got sultan of science we of course have to start with you 22 biggest science breakthrough freeberg yeah i'm i'm gonna give it obviously to the um

SPEAKER_04: the demonstration of net energy gain from the national ignition facility in plasma fusion uh that we talked about last week i i wouldn't call it a breakthrough by the way i think we we used that as a misnomer last week but i'm still going to put it in this category it's more of a milestone uh along a very long path a very arduous path a very difficult work that's been taking decades so it's a great milestone but i think what was so important and impactful and powerful about it is that it's really catalyzed a change a sea change in the investing in the outlook that this is becoming more reality as i mentioned last week we've seen an increase of nearly 40 percent in the number of fusion startups and the amount of capital that's flowing in is now reaching 10 billion a year so this is becoming you know a real investable or an area that's getting real investment some people might not think it's very investable but that's why i think it's been an important

SPEAKER_68: year for fusion and i think um you know it's something i highlighted last year i was excited

David Friedberg: about and i too picked fusion uh also just point of clarity last week some people chamath before you go to your prediction we're saying hey you're talking your book on solar when you were in your disagreement with friedberg that's obvious you've been very upfront that you're investing in solar

SPEAKER_24: you placed your bet yeah 100 yeah so just just for clarity everybody knows he made that bet he's

SPEAKER_13: talked about it incessantly plus those idiots that were saying that are stupid but um yes let me uh let me further clarify what i said last week and why it's important if nick can you bring up the

SPEAKER_82: capital asset pricing model again the most important thing for me is to make sure that we don't misallocate human capital into endeavors that i think are best left for research institutions funded by the government and i think when you look at a capital asset pricing model and try to build one out for fusion as an example the expected rate of return that you need to get from this is just astronomically

SPEAKER_13: high because of the beta of that investment risk and the market risk premium you have to generate

SPEAKER_82: and so you know from my perspective i think that there are probably four or five labs in the world that are capable of actually getting us to a positive energy equation i think friedberg i really

SPEAKER_19: thank you for actually saying that it wasn't a breakthrough and more of a milestone i think the real breakthrough is when we have positive not just joules but we actually convert that into electrical energy right and we actually talk about power and watts and i think that most people listening probably don't even understand the difference between joules and watts or don't even care and

SPEAKER_82: they want to jump around here or there so the point is that there's an enormous path we need to take

SPEAKER_19: in physics and i think it's best done in governments and i don't want to see a bunch of billions of dollars get wasted to get to to get marginal cost of energy to zero right now i think there is a point in time where private startups can take the the last 20 or 30 percent but i think about this like the internet which is you needed darpa to build v1 and then it could be handed over to private industry and i think fusion when we look back will look very similar and all the folks that try to build you know versions of the internet that were private i think found themselves lagging because there's just a level of investment that's required that's best served in government so anyways that's let's clarify that for all the for all the folks who got their panties in a bunch but in any event my science breakthrough of the year is that there is a 13 year old girl this was you know because of all of this fusion stuff actually we didn't even get to cover it because

SPEAKER_82: it happened in the same week and i think this is infinitely more impressive and is an actual

SPEAKER_19: breakthrough which is a 13 year old girl in the united kingdom who had a heretofore uncurable form of leukemia t-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia so typically you start in chemotherapy if chemotherapy doesn't work you move to bone marrow transplants and it was uncurable and a lab in the uk basically using crispr edited these transplant t-cells to go in and wipe out her cancer and now her cancer is literally undetectable now if you bring up that

SPEAKER_82: capital asset pricing model again nick what i'll tell you is the rate of return on a human life in my

SPEAKER_19: opinion is infinite and so here is an unbelievable breakthrough that got very little attention because everybody was wrapped around the axle of fusion it happened in the same week so maybe it's understandable i didn't understand it but i think this is the single most important thing that happened in science not just this year but frankly in the last decade because if you can actually now do base editing and eradicate at least in this case a blood-based cancer and eventually we'll be able to bring that and use that towards solid state tumor cancers it's a huge breakthrough in in in just human longevity and human quality of life and that happened just a few weeks ago okay and of course for

SPEAKER_31: david sacks his biggest uh science breakthrough is i don't care so moving on okay sacks go ahead tell us

SPEAKER_73: yeah no this category reminds me of remember when biden had that moment where he's like america can be defined in a single word and he's like that's kind of how i feel about this category america is a nation

SPEAKER_320: that can be defined in a single word i was gonna foot him excuse me amazing how you figured out a way

SPEAKER_12: to be derogatory about biden in the science section a new low even for you sacks

SPEAKER_49: oh it's a good one sex i like it all right biggest flash in the pan 2021 this is what we

SPEAKER_53: said we're the biggest flash in the pan i said uh the woke socialist leadership of cities i.e chessa

SPEAKER_49: boudin freebrook said the constitution dow sacks said the word transitory very well played and chama said the metaverse also very well played uh everybody nailed that yes very good everybody

SPEAKER_53: get your flowers uh enjoy all of those seem like pretty good uh selections but this year is what everybody wants to hear about freeberg tell us now who is your 2022 biggest flash in the pan

SPEAKER_23: the undisputable oh here we go biggest flash in the pan of 2022 was the all-in summit oh wow that

SPEAKER_04: hurts it went that will always be a strong and significant memory it was such a hot thing for a minute and then it died so um to the all-in summit i i uh i raised my glass i pour one out i toast to you to miami and uh unless david sacks carries it from here uh it was a flash in the pan it was a flash in

SPEAKER_02: the pen uh sex who's your flash which democrat is a flash in the plan for you this is where i had uh

SPEAKER_75: liz truss as you guys mentioned she only survived 44 days as pm i mean that's only four scaramuchis she was basically fired by the bond markets after she combined a thatcher-esque tax cut with massive energy subsidies to counter the price spikes caused by the war in ukraine that she was financially committed to this was deemed untenable by the uk central bank it crashed the pound and i think there

SPEAKER_59: is a serious point here which is that as much as thatcher and reagan were the two towering heroic figures of the 1980s i think zombie thatcherism is not going to be electorally viable in the uk just like zombie reaganism is not going to be viable in the united states i think that the conservative movement has to stop living in the past we have to develop fresh ideas to meet the economic and foreign policy challenges of today chamath do you have a flash in the pan i actually think fusion

Chamath Palihapitiya: literally was a flash in the pan it was it lasted 10 to the negative 10 seconds so that more less

SPEAKER_346: of a flash you can't have without being a flash in the pan ah they haven't hey uh sacks look who's here oh look who it is oh is it the proprietor the proprietor the owner twitter customer support at your

SPEAKER_21: service so i actually spent the last 15 minutes selling your new features uh yeah on the podcast

SPEAKER_96: pretty exciting well the the like the views are like incredible yeah i mean and i saw dave rubin already made an observation that if you look at new york times their views are maybe one tenth like my

SPEAKER_351: views just me as a lone tweeter and he said that their followers are inflated by just basically buying

SPEAKER_353: a bunch of follower accounts yeah the the views thing is huge that's why i i push the views which

SPEAKER_354: is like actually a lot harder feature to implement than you'd think because the sheer number of uh transactions uh per second like uh it's i think it sort of requires system-wide uh on the order of of three three million transactions a second to actually calculate the view to you know calculate and display

SPEAKER_356: the view count fyi for twitter twitter global so it's like three million per second it's a lot for

SPEAKER_357: those of you listening uh elon musk has had joined the pod elon how's uh how's the first six weeks been

SPEAKER_354: generally speaking of owning twitter well it's been quite a roller coaster which uh obviously you've um but witnessed and been on the roller coaster as well yes the dramamine i've taken the dramamine it's it's quite up yeah i mean it's exciting uh but i think it's sort of has its highs and lows to say the least um but overall it seems to be going in a good direction and um you know we've got the the expenses reasonably under control so the company's not like on the in the fast lane of bankruptcy anymore and we're uh releasing features uh faster than twitter's history at the same time as having contained the costs and and uh reduce the cost structure by a factor of three maybe maybe four so you know the verified uh is obviously that that's that's that's huge it's revenue stream as well as um uh a means of identifying of like knowing that it's a real person and not a bot or a troll situation the having the affiliation organization affiliation which i suspect you talked about that was a an idea of david's that was great um to uh you have organization affiliation so you can know that somebody is um an actual professor at stanford or an uh that this particular handle is actually disney not someone simply putting i work at disney in my in their bio so um i think that's gonna be really helpful it it just really just having um detailed and uh nuanced verification so of all the various

SPEAKER_359: things that you say you are are these things validated by other people and organizations can you

SPEAKER_04: tell us how how you do product iteration elon because one of the things that i think some people got jolted by over the last couple of weeks is like a bunch of things got taken away or changed or rules changed or policies changed and there was very quick action and then people had all this negative feedback about the the quick action without communication but your extraordinary talent is to

SPEAKER_68: iterate product to success can you just maybe share with people how you do product iteration in this context to help them understand how some of these decisions get made and why moving quickly is so

SPEAKER_92: important and just you know how you're doing this i'm a big believer in like you want to look at the

SPEAKER_354: net output um so it's sort of like uh you know what's the batting average uh if it's like baseball the point is is not that you like uh you know hit the ball but it's like well how many home runs you get and how like what's your actual your slugging percentage yeah slugging percentage yeah yeah it's like you're gonna swing for the fences you're gonna you're gonna you know strike out a bit more but we're gonna swing for the fences here at twitter and we're gonna do it quickly so and i think uh generally like my error rate uh and sort of being the chief twit uh will be less over time um but you know in the beginning we'll we'll make obviously sort of a lot more mistakes uh in you know because it's i'm new to the i'm like hey i just got here man um so i mean if you look at like the actual amount of improvement that's happened at twitter in terms of like so like having costs that are not insane uh and getting and actually shipping product that on balance is good i think that is uh that that's great like i think we're actually executing well and getting things done i think we'll have fewer um

SPEAKER_30: um fewer gaps in the future how did you get to your intuition on what the efficient frontier of employees needed to be to make the product better well um yeah well i i i observed part of

SPEAKER_376: this where you basically asked the question who here is critical and who here is exceptional yes i

SPEAKER_354: mean is so i mean it really the what the criteria is trying to apply and obviously you're not gonna be perfect um if you're moving fast and and there's a lot of you know people you're talking about here is that anyone who is exceptional at what they do where the role is critical they have a positive effect uh on others um and they are trusted meaning they put the company's interests before their own uh should stay pretty straightforward yeah and you know also and it also is up for working you know

SPEAKER_366: working hard like uh that would not that would not does these these that's not was not twitter's

SPEAKER_123: prior culture yeah were you surprised that that the intersection of that circle and the people that

SPEAKER_13: left was basically 25 were you surprised it was that deep or did you think your intuition was like

SPEAKER_364: it's probably somewhere in here well i think you could just stand back and say

SPEAKER_354: without knowing how many employees twitter has at all and say how many people are really needed to run twitter like let's say you don't know what the employee headcount number is at all how many people are needed to keep the site operational like let's say excluding product product evolution you basically have to keep the servers going and uh you have to have customer sort of a support function to take down uh material that is in violation of the law how many people what's the minimum number of people that's in the hundreds probably it's not not exactly it's just not it's not like a giant number yeah twitter still has like 2 000 people right yeah we still have 2 000 people it's not nothing and and actually if you there's there's actually on the order of uh like almost 5 000 uh contractors like almost yeah almost all of the what's called trust and safety work which is like um the the support functions for the site are done by contractors you're doing a lot more to take down

SPEAKER_388: hate speech than the company previously was doing yeah absolutely like hate speech impressions are down by a third and will get even um lower maybe you could speak a little bit to the what we discovered uh i think

David Friedberg: in those early weeks which was the incentive the incentive previously was to create as many accounts as possible uh and there were a lot of quick fixes to lowering all these you know what people might call bot accounts in some cases it was people opening many millions of accounts but uh we discovered this very early how easy was it for you uh with the tech team to maybe lower the bot count and all the fake accounts maybe you could speak a little bit to that because people have seemed to think that gosh it's

SPEAKER_357: it's a really hard thing to get rid of bots and it turns out it isn't um we still have a fair number

SPEAKER_354: of bots in the system um but the like i think the the incentive structure the way twitter set up previously was this relentless focus on what they called mdao which is monetizable daily active users although i would say the monetizable part is dubious but at least things that appeared to be monetized or could be passed off as monetizable daily active users so this i created an incentive to turn a blind eye to a fake accounts so if the incentive structure is like you know maximize the appearance of monetizable daily active users then you're just it's a strong incentive to pretend that a bot is real and that's what happened so um we're taking a lot of steps to reduce the bots and troll situation um so many um and um i think you're seeing that in in the usage like it's not it's not like relatively rare

SPEAKER_407: to have your replies filled with crypto scams i'm not seeing any anymore freeberg you had a question

SPEAKER_04: yeah i mean just on your earlier question you know elon when you first started um making changes at twitter after you bought the business a lot of people kind of took notice at how extraordinarily swift and significant those changes were yeah and um there's a lot of technology companies that have ceos and investors and boards and we all talk to a lot of them and they're all now having a conversation like look at what elon did at twitter how can we do something as aggressive as swift as deep do you

SPEAKER_68: think much about kind of the the model you're playing for other businesses and other business leaders particularly in silicon valley and how you're operating twitter do you ever kind of talk about that because i know you you mostly talk about your business and you talk about the businesses you're running but you're having a big influence i think and how other people kind of act and behave

SPEAKER_242: that are other business leaders and run other technology companies i mean to frank i'm not i'm not really

SPEAKER_364: you know i'm thinking about that much because i'm just thinking about like how do we um

SPEAKER_354: i'm just like you know uh just get twitter to be in a financially healthy place um and and and fix the engine of engineering so we can have a rapid evolution of of new products so and you know i i mean i guess i'm in sort of in some ways in a fortunate position where i uh don't have to answer it's not public and we don't have a board really so uh i mean so i can just go you know and and i can take actions that are uh drastic and and obviously if if if if i make a bunch of mistakes then the then twitter won't succeed and that'll be pretty embarrassing and uh sad but as long as like i said as long as the batting average is is good um that that that the um wins uh out you know significantly outweigh the mistakes then um you know it'll be a great future and i think

David Friedberg: i think i'm very optimistic about where things are i think a lot of people want to talk about or

SPEAKER_02: understand elon your position on freedom of speech and your principles i'm curious you've been pretty upfront about it how do you think about it post acquisition you know what speech should be allowed in the platform kanye came back he just went insane his account got revoked what have you learned i guess now that you own it because you must be getting a lot of inbound from people asking you hey how are decisions going to be made etc you've been clear transparency is super important in this but what are your thoughts on free speech and speech on a platform like this well i mean the the general

SPEAKER_354: principle i think is that we should hew close to the law in any given country so the law is very quite a lot by by country um and um so i think we should be doing free speech that's that's close close to the law and uh that's that's that's that's the general principle um the i think there are other things where it's like okay we we um like for example like if you're an advertiser um you don't want to necessarily you don't you don't want your ad like let's say it's a family movie next to some you know uh nsfw content even if that content is text you know you know it's like um they'll be like uh that's probably that's we don't you know so so that's okay so that's you know part of what you know like so there's there's more of an allowance for what you might what somebody call hate speech on the system but it's just it's not going to be promoted it's not like we're not going to be recommending hate speech it's a risk of stating the obvious and we're not going to monetize hate speech so or or negative speech like that's no would advertisers want us to you know any any i think

SPEAKER_415: it's going to be a rare product that wants to be uh next to uh seriously negative stuff i was going to

SPEAKER_54: say you referred to it as hey freedom of speech but not reach because this is a very nuanced discussion like should this stuff be able to hit the trends you know and that kind of stuff

SPEAKER_354: like it's certainly possible some things that will be regarded as hate speech will hit will hit it will hit trends but i think it's going to be relatively unusual uh especially as we are doing a better job of controlling the the bots and trolls situation and uh and i don't emphasize like there's difference between the bots and trolls like bots like fully automated accounts but like a troll phone would be where you've got like you know 100 people in a warehouse somewhere each with 100 phones and so they're actually humans and they're going to pass a capture test or you know and they can you know reply reply and they're because they're actually humans but it's actually 10 000 accounts that are just that they're they're obviously not operating as as as real people so that that's you know stuff like that can cause things to to trend negatively that's why i'm like a big proponent of having just a low cost um verification capability and um yeah so but like this is definitely a work in progress so there's um like i said there's gonna be and i did like one of the first things i said uh after the acquisition closed was like we're gonna make a bunch of mistakes but then we'll try to recover from them quickly and that's uh that's what we've done and i think we've generally succeeded in uh recovering up from them quickly and um it's been going pretty well was the paul graham and

SPEAKER_04: journalists suspensions mistakes from have you talked about this publicly about how that all kind

SPEAKER_366: of got resolved at the end uh yeah i mean the program uh suspension was definitely a mistake and uh i actually called paul graham to apologize personally for that one yeah um yeah um so uh

SPEAKER_354: you know on the journalist front the i think the journalists essential suspensions were were not not a mistake uh in that um for some reason uh a bunch of journalists thought they were um better than regular than everyone else and that if they engage in doxing and and uh you know other and break the rules in various ways that that they're not subject to suspension even though your average your average citizen is and i think that's just messed up the same rules should apply to people who call themselves journalists as to you know anyone else on the system they shouldn't be uh sort of above the rules

SPEAKER_421: for some reason they thought they they should be that's that's that doesn't make sense i don't think

SPEAKER_02: that's right yeah and the rules being transparent and upfront i think that's what everybody's looking forward to maybe some just complete clarity and transparency and you've said from the beginning when somebody gets suspended or this shadow banning or this sort of tips into this really weird uh stuff that we discovered during or you discovered uh where the journalists discovered during the twitter files it's it's kind of a bummer that people are being sanctioned or shadow banned and they don't know it if we're going to have a system the rules should be clear to everybody yeah absolutely so the

SPEAKER_354: the the something i've committed to and we'll uh we'll i think probably be able to roll that out in january um just by the way there is like a bit of a you know we are not going to be rolling out a ton of new features over you know christmas and new year's and stuff so there's like a you know the next sort of feature set will probably roll out mid to late january um and hopefully in that we'll uh we can include um information about why an account is suspended or uh has uh what is uh called within tesla twitter uh visibility filtering aka shadow banning so um and and some of these things like are like this there's a lot of things that just happen accidentally where there's um you know the rules in the system that are meant to detect whether someone's a sort of bot or troll or or like brigading where they're like you know and and then an account is sort of innocently caught up uh in in that so um like there were some accounts just suspended uh yesterday because um but temporarily suspended like they got like 12 hour suspensions because someone in customers someone in trust and safety thought that they had posted uh a nude photo of hunter biden or something here we go oh no but they hadn't they hadn't actually done that um i don't know it was just basically a mistake there were some accounts that were there got a 12-hour suspension yesterday for uh it in error and then they weren't they're sure why it why it happened it was just essentially a mistake uh in the with twitter customer support that was corrected elon let me uh let me ask you

SPEAKER_13: just a slightly broader question one of the things we just talked about was the regime change that's happened where you know we all have to act differently now that the risk-free rate is probably going to get to five percent and i'm just curious across all your businesses so twitter yes but really more importantly tesla spacex are there decisions that you will make differently or not at all or will make

SPEAKER_82: that you wouldn't have made otherwise in this new regime and how often do you think about that kind of

SPEAKER_437: stuff well i think it's more like like it does seem like we're headed into a recession here um in 2023

SPEAKER_354: the magnitude that recession is debatable but i think it's at least a a light to moderate recession potentially it's on the order of uh 2009 um so that's so i think it's it's it's wise to kind of like

SPEAKER_437: prepare for the worst hope for the best prepare for the worst don't get too adventurous like watch out

SPEAKER_354: for margin debt like i would really advise people to not have uh margin debt uh in a volatile stock market and uh you know from a cash standpoint keep keep powder dry you can get some pretty extreme things happening um in a down market um like brett johnson who was a cfo who is a cfo cfo of spacex was at um broadcom in 2000 and he he said that uh and that's a good company making good products and he said the the from from peak to trough i think in less than 12 months uh broadcom went down 97 so like even if you had a small margin loan there you got you got crushed um it subsequently recovered and i think you know to much higher levels but you know if there's like mass panic in the stock market uh then you've got to be really be careful about margin debt so but i mean this is just as as we know there's the economy is cyclic so you know you and it's somewhat overdue for a recession and my best guess is that you know we have sort of stormy times for a year to a year and a half and then things start to dawn breaks roughly in uh q2 24 if i were to get that's like my best guess recessions don't like booms don't last rather forever but neither do recessions and it's a 14

David Friedberg: year boom so a six quarter recession seems like you know that may that might actually bounce out the

SPEAKER_91: last time it was what four or five quarters so it's it's not easy hey um the twitter files are how how how much longer are these going to go on uh it seems like every week another drop uh and

SPEAKER_02: these are uh pretty controversial um how much longer are the twitter files going to go on uh in your mind

SPEAKER_441: yeah and maybe why is this important to you to make sure that people understand the stuff yeah i think it's

SPEAKER_437: important to like you know if we're going to be trusted in the future to kind of clear

SPEAKER_354: the decks for stuff that's happened in the past so um i mean to be totally frank um almost every conspiracy theory that people had about twitter turned out to be true

SPEAKER_364: is there a conspiracy theory about twitter that didn't turn out to be true uh so far they've all turned out to be true and if not uh more true than people thought

SPEAKER_450: is there a part of the files that really shocked you more than the rest of them like of the things

SPEAKER_88: that have been disclosed of all of these things is there something that really sticks out with you as like holy i had no idea this was happening or is the whole thing just a big dumpster fire they were just looking at one huge thing um you know like psyops versus the hunter biden thing versus

SPEAKER_124: the yeah the number of fbi people involved that was pretty stuff is pretty intense yeah the fbi psyop

SPEAKER_19: stuff to me was probably the one that was the most insidious like the rest of it i could think of like you know a bunch of overzealous libs got used yeah got it you know what i mean sure sure but to have like a secure skiff that essentially sends things that you know government agents want the populace to

SPEAKER_88: basically think it seems like kind of like a really bad dystopian novel and then it turns out it existed

SPEAKER_19: and then also the thing is it couldn't have just existed at twitter so what are we going to do about

SPEAKER_456: all the other places where this shit's happening youtube facebook yeah yeah that's why this it did

SPEAKER_04: none of it seemed that surprising to me i mean i don't know maybe i just believed all the conspiracy theories but i've also been inside some of these companies and seen how they operate so honestly none of

SPEAKER_96: it was a surprise to me was it a big shock to you elon wait wait you freeberg you were i i think you can claim that you weren't surprised that these companies were shadow banning although they denied it but did you really suspect that the fbi was playing a role in flagging content for these companies to

SPEAKER_462: take down like that blew me away content that's got nothing to do with like terrorism yeah they're not

SPEAKER_354: investigating crimes like there's no crime right yeah they literally flagged satire

SPEAKER_91: maybe they didn't get the joke i don't know but they don't seem to be a humor driven group but um they don't seem to have the best senses of humor but aren't they supposed to get warrants isn't that

SPEAKER_357: how it's supposed to work in a democracy they want information they're asking favors of their friends

SPEAKER_02: yeah they're all friends that's the thing that's troubling to me put yourself on either side of the

SPEAKER_231: extremes hey we have michael schellenberger here who broke the fbi story in the twitter files so

SPEAKER_471: let's look at him and to see he can exp because i think maybe the audience isn't caught up on like

SPEAKER_473: what was discovered so now i know i have to follow elon musk that doesn't seem fair yeah hey guys oh hey michael how are you uh i'm good just a quick question for you michael michael first of all

SPEAKER_479: first of all who makes that sweater oh i'll send you mine man do you want it or are you making fun of it no i'm asking you're the master of sweaters praise from you brother high praise uh just

SPEAKER_02: briefly michael um isn't the fbi supposed to get warrants uh to yes take actions with folks and then i guess is that at the crux of this are they doing this at other companies you think are they just like embedded in youtube should we expect they're embedded at meta and that they don't get warrants and they're kind of tipping the scales and and is that a good thing for society or a bad thing for

SPEAKER_485: society it's a bit of a basic question yeah well i think there's a there's multiple issues relating to fbi that i think have to be unpacked a bit but the first one is that yeah fbi was constantly pushing the boundaries of what is legally and ethically acceptable in terms of requesting information now i think what you saw over the last uh three weeks was uh a shift and i think our own understanding that we did see more pushback from twitter executives against fbi and some alarm bells being uh wrong in terms of the requests that were being made from the intelligence community uh but these guys were really persistent they kept asking for more they kept getting more and more cooperation it's very troubling it does look like congress is going to look into this uh the two heads of the committees that are tasked with this are have said that they're going to look into it next year i think the other thing that we saw that i think is is more troubling was this persistent uh effort to basically communicate to twitter executives but also to news media um national security correspondents that there was this heavy foreign infiltration going on this this russian disinformation and it appeared to me looking at all the evidence both that we saw from within twitter and from outside of it that this was pretty organized effort to convince uh key executives at twitter and facebook but also these key reporters that that they should expect a hack and leak operation sometime right before the

SPEAKER_487: elections having to do with hunter biden i find that very suspicious can i make an observation i think

SPEAKER_13: that maybe what we're finding out is that the mainstream media tried to go back to its 1980

SPEAKER_82: cold war playbook and turn russia into a boogeyman but as we're seeing in the ukraine war you know they're not nearly the formidable foe that we thought they were and so it could probably be the

SPEAKER_19: case that in 2016 they were as inept technically as as they are militarily right now and so we may

SPEAKER_18: have just built up this monster that uh is kind of more like you know a a much smaller thing to be

SPEAKER_19: worried about and we all ran with it because we had no evidence but the ukraine russia war is evidence that you know this highly sophisticated war machine and propaganda machine is not that good at their

SPEAKER_485: job right yeah i mean i think that what's there's a lot of interests that were being served by hyping the so-called russian misinformation threat i mean one of them was just to simply explain away the trump phenomenon as a consequence of foreign interference uh certainly the people that ran hillary clinton's campaign had an interest in doing that but then you saw it become a sort of way i think to condition people for the release of the biden laptop and again we can't i can't prove that but it is striking that the yoel roth this means twitter executive who i think was the object of this misinformation campaign um testified under oath that he was being bombarded with these messages all throughout 2020 that they should expect some sort of a hack and leak operation so when the new york post finally did report on that computer uh in 2014 it was briefly censored by twitter but i think more importantly it was discredited in the minds of many voters including myself i really didn't think that that laptop was what they said it was and it turned out that it was so i do think it's there's a real troubling pattern of behavior by both the fbi uh agents but also by the former fbi executives including the

SPEAKER_487: deputy chief of staff and the chief counsel from fbi that that were at twitter as executives at the time

SPEAKER_91: and in fairness michael uh this has been brought up many times but i just would like your take on it

SPEAKER_00: because you're a lifelong democrat correct until until last year great so it would you know just lest anybody think that you are like some maga supporter here just look at my sweater yeah exactly

David Friedberg: this was all on the backdrop of trump asking for the russians you know during that debate to hack hillary for him interfering with zelinski and trying to get him to give dirt on biden and the fact that

SPEAKER_00: hunter biden was obviously dirty uh so to expect a hack there was massive precedent for it so that set

SPEAKER_485: the stage for this correct for sure and there is definitely uh that going on and and maybe that's all there was to it it is just striking of course because and i didn't even mention in my this was by the way this is twitter thread uh part seven that i did on this issue um i didn't even get into the fact that you know within a few days the many uh former senior heads of intelligence organizations and others came out and said that it was the result of a russian disinformation campaign so yeah sure i mean i guess we could find some other explanation uh for it um whether it was innocent or coordinated but it is it is striking also i think the other thing that we found was the contrast between the the threat inflation and what what twitter was finding themselves i mean there was you know yule repeatedly yule roth would would respond to fbi that yeah we looked into these accounts that you mentioned and they were all very low follower accounts with very little activity so they just weren't finding very much foreign influence on the twitter platform and so i just think it was grossly inflated either for kind of good reasons or bad reasons i would say yeah yeah and it's uh there there's no perfect way

SPEAKER_132: to police this stuff obviously and uh okay well listen we appreciate your reporting thanks for doing

David Friedberg: it um and uh if you haven't uh read michael's book uh san francisco you did some great reporting

SPEAKER_132: there as well and uh continued success in your investigative journalism career thank you michael

SPEAKER_504: thanks guys appreciate it all right michael sorry oh lost him it's all right what do you want to ask

SPEAKER_04: he's still here oh okay hey you did an interview uh on that i think i saw it on youtube or something where you interviewed someone who was homeless in san francisco and they were addicted to drugs and they kind of said some narrative about how they were uh in this condition because san francisco basically pays them to be homeless and pays them to do drugs on the street did that ever get published and did that come out because it was such a compelling couple minutes that you got on tape there it really for me sent home a message of how far kind of progressive policies can take a society and it's such a beacon for where things might go as other people start to think about adopting similar policies around the world which is why i thought it was such important reporting whatever happened with that and where can folks see that because it was such a moving interview for me yeah if you just google

SPEAKER_485: michael schellenberger youtube homeless you'll be able to find all my videos there's a lot of them that we did with people on the street all of them of course people asking and wanting to do them but yeah i mean what we i also wrote about that in my book which is basically san francisco pays a cash welfare payment of somewhere between six to seven hundred dollars plus you can get two dollars in food stamps and a lot of uh people sadly use that to maintain their addiction and this gentleman uh james with the tattoos on his face was very honest about how he was playing the system in fact he was himself uh we found this increasingly kind of horrified by the incentives that san francisco was creating for people to live on the streets and and live on the streets in their in their addiction

SPEAKER_04: so yeah you can find that on youtube so many people say incentives drive behavior and unfortunately these policies all came from a good place from a kind heart and the idea that we could help people in need and unfortunately the way that the incentives get structured they can actually cause more harm than good it's such an important lesson i just wanted to say that because i think your reporting on this really hit that home uh so so thanks for doing that i think it's really important because we have we have to do the right thing for people but we also have to be careful that the

SPEAKER_230: policies are done in the right way so i think it's so well said friedberg because when you're michael and i i just think you're very courageous for doing it because it's very easy for somebody to

SPEAKER_441: say oh well you are being callous the truth is incentives matter and we saw we've seen this over and over again if you pay for something you get more of it and really san francisco is bearing the burden i think this is what your book and uh um you know and a lot of the videos you've made at

SPEAKER_02: least the message i got was san francisco has the lowest price of drugs the lowest enforcement and the most incentives therefore they suffer because every person who is you know addicted comes here because they speak to each other and 90 of the people who are in san francisco are here because we have created an incentive structure is that directionally correct as we wrap here yeah

SPEAKER_485: 100 correct including just the non-enforcement of laws against uh sleeping on the sidewalk doing drugs in public not requiring ultimately three times more people die living outside as an unsheltered homeless person rather than live than being in a shelter and for me that's all you need to know to know that you usually we cannot allow our brothers and sisters to sleep on the street no matter how desperate they sound about wanting to avoid going inside it's three times deadlier to be

David Friedberg: on the street than inside so the compassionate thing is to force people into housing yes and that's very tough for people to say but you know because you're we have this perception that people have freedom and they should have the right to do this but a person who's taking fentanyl in your research is not thinking correctly and if it was any family member of ours we would not want them to make that decision for themselves we'd want somebody else to make that decision for them correct

SPEAKER_487: abs i would want that from if i was on the street so desperate that i was you know smoking fentanyl and

SPEAKER_485: breaking multiple laws every day of course i would want to be hospitalized you know and usually you know people overcome their addiction that's the good news we always leave out of it but it is possible people do overcome their addiction all the time but they often need some some an intervention from family and friends and if that's too late for that then you need the intervention from the

SPEAKER_00: from the city all right michael thank you michael appreciate it thanks guys so as we get back to the all-in news network we've now gone 24 hours a day the all-in news network has launched we'll just

SPEAKER_18: have a road we should sit at various offices throughout silicon valley letting uh executives and

SPEAKER_282: see you just drop it imagine we did like a 12-hour marathon show for charity where just people showed

SPEAKER_49: up and we did a what do they call those on tv what is the charity telephone by jcal the plane yeah yeah no no just a yeah telephone j cal has to still fly commercial we'll do a telephone hey

SPEAKER_12: sax thank you for setting up those amazing uh drop-ins well done yeah thanks sax thanks sax

SPEAKER_100: i think that was good your jacket that's a great jacket is that custom that is an eastia

SPEAKER_41: paul stewart this is the christmas or holiday jacket who is it by eastia it's a valentino

SPEAKER_65: all right well that's that's that's nice also um okay no it's not but okay let's keep going here we gotta go to lightning round all right let's move biggest flash in the pan we were it was our last i went with crypto pretty easy to say that um i'm not going to give myself a big high five but what

SPEAKER_21: what did you guys think of the elon conversation real quick well he's very talkative and he's anything interesting or surprising for you i mean he said the biggest you know thing that people want

SPEAKER_100: to make sure to avoid is margin debt i thought that was i mean he's working hard and um he's just such a product a focused guy he just gets his he's like so deeply into it it's like yeah just do

David Friedberg: ultimately product wins right friedberg i mean if anything's oh my god of course that's it that's it yeah so i mean and you know products are made by teams so what i think is distinctly different here i'm just giving my personal opinion i don't know what microsoft teams no no no teams make products and so what i just want to say here is you know like this microsoft teams suck no that i'm not you know don't trigger uh the bundle but i just want to say you know like this is a takeover as opposed to building a company from scratch he's had to assemble a team and then work at this incredible product pace and i think those two things are starting to click week yeah 16 is going to look very different

SPEAKER_00: than week the first six weeks so yeah the products are really looking awesome and it was nice to him

SPEAKER_96: to give me that shout out on the you know the affiliate badges but i'll just give a shout out i didn't i didn't hear it what was it oh well he gave me he gave me some credit for the affiliate

SPEAKER_231: badges but i wanted to give credit to the pms who approached me about that idea troll i went again

SPEAKER_59: oh okay the truth is let me let me give let me give credit to the actual pms uh evan jones and

SPEAKER_75: patrick trauger who they approached me about this idea they had and then i helped you know give it

SPEAKER_02: some momentum here's the truth when dave and i spent the first couple weeks there now that it's a little more public he loves been on the program what we found over and over again was that there were great features that were ready to be released that were being held back by management and there were brilliant people with all the ideas that you think should have been released and they just weren't allowed to release a lot of these products why who knows but now that he's in charge i think you'll see the product cycle is going to go much quicker the most important thing i saw which is such an

SPEAKER_04: important lesson for anyone running a business in silicon valley is that the pace of decision making

SPEAKER_68: matters far more than the accuracy of decision making it's always been like one of my three big

SPEAKER_04: mottos um say more about that for entrepreneurs yeah for me like my number one like my three things are always like grit biased action and then narrative but like biased action the rate at which you can make decisions is a far greater predictor of success than the accuracy of the decisions you do make and so you have to be willing to embrace failure you have to be willing to make decisions that could result in something not being done correctly or making a mistake and even getting embarrassed on the internet you know by making mistakes and having to call people like paul graham and apologize for them and that was a big moment but that was interesting as a business scales as professional managers are brought in their incentive is to not make mistakes their incentive is to do things that are predictably going to work and are predictably not going to fail and therefore they avoid taking the risks and they reduce the rate of action the rate of decision making and that's why so many businesses ultimately don't scale past some sort of inflection point or when founders that are willing to push that envelope step out everything starts to fall apart and it's so critically important i think to look at that as being i think elon's defining trait and characteristics that this regardless of the scale of the organization

SPEAKER_68: and the enterprise he's still willing to act with that level of bias to action that you typically see

SPEAKER_73: in a small startup okay and put his reputation on at risk yeah just to sum that up i um i sat in a

SPEAKER_59: meeting yesterday he said that if we're not rolling back 10 of the time we haven't pushed hard enough

SPEAKER_505: right wonderful there you go i mean it's like if you're never rolling anything back because you

SPEAKER_59: never make a mistake maybe you're just not right moving fast enough you're not ambitious enough

SPEAKER_75: you're not fast enough enough of a bias towards action you're too afraid of making a mistake

SPEAKER_13: by the way here's here's what's so interesting about the views feature is that a bunch of websites i think it started because instagram did a bunch of apps deprecated you know likes because they felt that it was too it was part of this negative cycle and so they took all this stuff away and basically views is going sort of back in that direction and giving more granularity in terms of outside in social

SPEAKER_18: engagement on a post which is i think interesting to see it's happening in a moment where all these other sites and apps are actually going in the opposite direction well it's it's like a standard feature

SPEAKER_75: on youtube and it's very powerful for youtube's network effects because it shows you how many views you get so it discourages people from using other sites because you know you get the most distribution on youtube so it's weird that other social networks don't want to follow suit i mean

SPEAKER_315: in one hour they had it but they deprecated that's what's so interesting but i i guess you know my point

SPEAKER_75: is we've only had this feature for an hour and i didn't realize how much distribution my tweets were

SPEAKER_59: getting and it definitely undermines my incentive to want to go use some other platform when i see the distribution i'm getting on twitter well if you're getting 10 times more distribution than

SPEAKER_88: the new york times you know what's going to happen is people stop listening and reading well i mean

SPEAKER_230: it's sort of like this podcast itself like i mean we people ask us to go and my point is we have to

SPEAKER_19: rely on social proof and anecdotes about the actual scale and the breadth and the reach because it's impossible for us to get one holistic view that shows across all of these different modalities

SPEAKER_18: whether it's spotify or apple podcasts or youtube how many people listen or watch and you know we

SPEAKER_13: add it all up and you know we think it's in this you know sort of three to five million range of

SPEAKER_19: people but if you just had a numerical canonical number that was irrefutable you just run over

SPEAKER_55: everybody this turns it into a meritocracy this is gonna be terrifying to some blue check marks when

SPEAKER_65: they see that the people who they report on get 10 times as many views as they do of course which is

SPEAKER_17: why when when people journalists look at sean hennity go to sean hennity's profile and for the number of followers he has hypothetically engaged his audience is it's all bots it's all trolls it's

SPEAKER_02: all nobody's i looked at mitt romney just put out a video whatever in the first like half hour he had a hundred thousand views like every politician who starts seeing this is going to go wait a second i mean the world i'm getting more views here than i am on msnbc or fox the world i need to do this

SPEAKER_88: more rational place if mitt romney actually has more influence than sean hannity let's hope okay let's

SPEAKER_12: move on we got to get through this quickly it's our longest episode ever here we go we are going

David Friedberg: to do next up it's very this is a very important category best ceo of 2022 in 2021 i went with frank slootman and elon musk uh chamath went with satya nadella sacks went with brian armstrong and freeberg

SPEAKER_53: went with jack dorsey now we go on to 2022 sax who everybody wants to know sax's best ceo of 2022

SPEAKER_73: go ahead sax uh every founder took my advice to get leaner so down their burn create runway you know

SPEAKER_295: weather the storm down you know so you're giving a generic answer not a person yeah exactly i mean look i think actually a lot of the names a lot of the names well here's the problem is that you know

SPEAKER_59: let him do it yeah yeah can i finish jaco the the names that you mentioned from last year would be

SPEAKER_75: the top candidates for this year i mean i think satya nadella had a good year obviously what elon's doing we just talked about it's amazing um brian armstrong i think the stock hasn't done great but he's been a strong ceo but i don't want to repeat the same names i think that you know every ceo who

SPEAKER_59: responded to the regime change by cutting costs getting leaner extending runway i think deserves to be on this list and unfortunately a lot of them are just resisting and they're just not yet taking the medicine or they've been taking the medicine in little drips and drabs instead of just like

SPEAKER_441: swallowing it whole and getting a move on yeah just drink the whole two tablespoons of medicine don't

SPEAKER_75: sip it you got to just take it it's not getting better i mean the stock market today should be a wake-up call i mean this was one of the worst days in the market the whole year so things are getting

SPEAKER_582: worse before they're getting better chamath who is your best ceo of the year well the numerical

SPEAKER_13: answer is vicky holub who's the ceo of occidental petroleum stocks up like 140 this year it's

SPEAKER_30: technically the best performing stock of the year 63 billion dollar company but that's just a numerical

Chamath Palihapitiya: answer who i i actually want to double down on david's answer sax's answer because i agree with that

SPEAKER_13: i have been guiding uh our portfolio company ceos to be at cash flow break even now or extend runway to q1 2025 and they're 25 yes because i i mean i think well elon and i are kind of roughly in the same place we have been for a while which is like you know mid 24 is when the recession ends and you need to give yourself two to three quarters of buffers so that you can go and raise around which takes a quarter to two quarters and once you start to get kind of get escape velocity out of a recession having money through end of q1 2025 i think is a is a minimum requirement and you know of the

SPEAKER_18: companies that i think were the most precariously position there was five of them that got their acts

SPEAKER_88: together and really did it but these are all ceos of companies that you know i mean if you said them you would know some of them but i i do agree with david i think the ceo that bit the bullet so maybe

SPEAKER_19: publicly what i would say is you know the ceo of carna deserves a huge you know metal for having the courage to do it before anybody else did the ceo of checkout.com just took a huge write down

SPEAKER_587: these ceos are making sure their companies survive friedberg best ceo 2022 my vote for best ceo

SPEAKER_68: uh is uh warren buffett and i think it is just simple arithmetic uh he has for years and now for decades proven himself uh to be just not just an exceptional investor stock picker whatever the kind of typical quip is about what he does for a living but i think what's so extraordinary about buffett is that regardless of the market conditions um he can kind of remain steadfast in his uh intent and in his mission and he doesn't kind of waver uh and you know he doesn't take an active role in ranting and complaining about markets and politics and i think that that's what makes him such an extraordinary

SPEAKER_04: leader he stays within his zone of competence he doesn't do things that he doesn't know about he doesn't let the macro drive him and cause him to be kind of um you know uh affected by it and he says this is what i know how to do this is what i can do and that is all that he does do and he does it so exceptionally well and to chamas point he is the largest shareholder of occidental petroleum along with many other uh incredible businesses and i think he's proven in a market like we just had this year why he is kind of the most extraordinary ceo or one of the most extraordinary ceos but one of

SPEAKER_68: the you know best kind of uh capital allocators uh uh of all time i'm going to go in a similar fashion

SPEAKER_00: uh as chamath and sax and go with the money losing ceos who have dedicated themselves to free cash flow uh and to getting to profitability from the last cycle airbnb and uber were the money losers and now airbnb is my number one they become a money printer they are now making bank and they're still growing very uh quickly and then uber i put in my second they need to do another riff they need to

SPEAKER_441: cut some expenses but they too are hitting the free cash flow and the network effects so i'm giving it to chesky and then dara one and two okay let's keep moving best investor uh for me uh i'm going with

SPEAKER_00: the investors like a general category who are demanding governance and doing diligence again uh or who never stopped let me say it that way there's a generation of investors who've raised their

David Friedberg: funds in the last five years and didn't do diligence didn't demand board seats didn't demand boards those uh idiots are now paying the price and they created a lot of this mess of entitlement and a lack of governance i want to give a shout out to the bill girlies of the world who fought for governance

SPEAKER_00: and fought for diligence in the face of being told okay boomer you don't get it who do you have uh best

SPEAKER_18: investors chamath palihapitiya i will pick the what are called the pod shops so these are folks that have strategies where they have hundreds of investing pods underneath an umbrella and they have this

SPEAKER_82: very sophisticated risk infrastructure so this is what ken griffin owns in citadel this is what izzy

SPEAKER_18: englander owns in millennium revin howard is another one de shaw is another one so they have all kinds of

SPEAKER_19: strategies but that are essentially run by computers that allocate risk you know scale you up scale you back turn you on turn you off fire you overnight and those strategies as a whole ran over the market

SPEAKER_82: this year they were the best performers they are giving back billions of dollars they've generated double-digit positive returns they're raising their fees in some cases some of these folks are moving their annual fee up to four percent a year their carry up to forty percent a year

SPEAKER_88: incredibly incredibly well-run performant businesses they were by and away the best

SPEAKER_230: investors uh this year okay we're gonna go lightning round from here uh sacks do you have a uh

SPEAKER_75: best investor yeah i said uh stan uh druckenmiller he as you recall last year he predicted that inflation would be lasting this was the spring of 2021 when transitory was the word of the day this year he predicted the bear market rally we had in july and august and i remember back at the kochi summit in may or around that time he was interviewed and he basically was saying that as soon as there was a bear market rally over the summer that he would then put a short position on i don't know if he actually did that but he said he's going to do that and then it turns out that the summer rally that we had was a dead cap bounce so he was right about that and now he is predicting a hard landing

SPEAKER_77: in 2023 with a deeper recession than many expect so sadly i suspect he may be right yet again

SPEAKER_68: friedberg best investor for you 2022 yeah i had druckenmiller i i indicated that he's been doing interviews pretty much every quarter for the last two years and he's been pounding the table telling everyone what's going to happen and it all happened and he even told people the trades in mid 2021

SPEAKER_04: he said he was short long dated treasuries and he was long commodities and if you had put those two trades on at that time and held them to today you would have made a fortune and so i think he's

SPEAKER_68: extraordinary in his um ability to kind of see macro in a way that others don't but also to take extremely brave action with his portfolio he's renowned for how big the bets are that he makes and how quickly he can change his mind when he's wrong and make another big bet to and still get himself out of the hole he's incredible so i definitely give it to stanley drunkenmiller this year

David Friedberg: 2021 we did our best turnarounds i picked disney chamath ford freeberg we were should we start this

SPEAKER_30: category what about the worst investor of 2022 can we do that good you want to freestyle tell

SPEAKER_18: us your worst investor of 2022 i mean i'll put myself in the category along with anybody else who was long tech basically if nick if you can just bring please back up this capital asset pricing model

SPEAKER_82: any of us that didn't understand this got run over this year and just to put some very specific numbers here there was a decent little tweet thread uh that elon was a part of where he they actually calculated what the expected rate of return of tesla was and it turned out to be almost 14 a year and so you know when you start to compound 14 over three four five years these numbers get very big very quickly and the reason why is that it has a huge beta and we're in a world now where the risk free rate is quite high so all of us benefited from this equation essentially being upside down for

SPEAKER_19: the last 15 years and all of us who were over allocated into things that benefited from those dynamics frankly got run over this year so we were as a class the worst investors of 2022.

SPEAKER_299: okay here we go let's do our best turnaround i am gonna go with uh me for me it's meta they were

SPEAKER_00: losing money hand over fist they refused to do a rift and then finally bestie brad gerstner said uh let's get fit he did a memo and finally finally zuckerberg made some cuts reportedly rumors he's making a 15 10 or 15 cut i heard in the back channels right now based on performance so he's not calling it a riff or a layoff they're just going to cut the bottom 10 or 15 again so i think zuck's going to

SPEAKER_450: turn it around anybody have a best turnaround so you're saying zuck mission accomplished

SPEAKER_418: turn around this year i'm going with meta so your answer is meta was turned around by zuck this year

SPEAKER_65: yes they got down to 85 dollars and now they're up at what 110 115 yes he turned it around at the end of

SPEAKER_540: the year it was like a hail mary at the end of the year he's turned it around i think he's going to

SPEAKER_609: continue to yes that is my position that sounds good okay listen i bought the stock at 94. go with

SPEAKER_96: that jake okay so if we're talking about very partial turnarounds here i would say i would say that you

SPEAKER_490: can measure the turnaround as of october 24th to now yes exactly so uh san francisco is still overall a

SPEAKER_59: mess but there were a few positive events that happened over the past year and since we're looking back we should call these out so first of all back this was towards the beginning of the year we recalled three members of the school board uh most particularly allison collins remember her this was done by something like a 70 30 margin and 80 20 on on collins this was the school board that had dragged its feet on school reopenings they destroyed the merit-based lowell high school they wasted hours of meetings on a silly plan to remove the names of names like abraham lincoln from this from the schools in any event they were removed then jacal you referred to this we got chesa boudin recalled the by a 60 40 margin as san francisco da this was the da who whose agenda was decarceration he tried to release as many repeat offenders as possible the voters san francisco had enough and then most recently

SPEAKER_75: the far left supervisor gordon marr just got uh rejected by his own community this november and the new tough da brooke jenkins um got re-elected in her own right after being appointed by london breed so there's still a long way to go in san francisco but there are definitely some green shoes that the electorate here has had enough and is looking for the let's say called the centrist democrats as opposed to

SPEAKER_132: the radicals okay we're in the lightning round here we're in hour three of the all-in podcast

David Friedberg: uh marathon this uh telethon you got a best turnaround for 2022 hard hard one to give so any green shoots for 2022 as sacks would say no i mean the everything everything's just got a disaster

SPEAKER_124: great freeberg anything that you have there may be no turnaround award until 2025. fine okay yeah we're a little split on this freeberg you got anything i'll just go with your

SPEAKER_450: your incisive fucking viewpoint and i'll pick zuck and meta that makes so much sense at 94 it's at 117

SPEAKER_620: it's one of my best j trades i'm gonna take it didn't you also say disney was your pick of the year or something i'm buying more i'm buying more disney i'm buying more this is that's what i'm doing

SPEAKER_205: i'm telling you disney warner which you talked about before yeah and facebook are three of my uh

SPEAKER_230: bit and uh you know three of my big ones let's say worst human being here well i think look given

SPEAKER_96: that this is supposed to be the year 2022 i mean you got to say that sbf was the winner of this hands

SPEAKER_441: down okay congratulations to sbf you are consensus worst human being for this year i mean not ever but

SPEAKER_303: only for this year right yeah we we all hate you equally okay who's who's number two why do you hate

SPEAKER_65: him why do i hate him because all those people lost their money and you know there's some pot it's causing chaos i feel terrible for all these people who lost money that's why i hate him

SPEAKER_450: oh it's disgusting did did you see anybody have a second most blows in person the two guys copped to please caroline ellison and uh gary like pancakes they flipped and but it turns out that they actually did engineer a back door into ftx and alameda has been doing this for years oh my god oh my god

SPEAKER_634: that's game over you're getting 10 years he's getting life game over okay well they're they're

SPEAKER_96: actually talking about that interesting defense strategy that we were um discussing in in the chat oh yeah that apparently i think this is actually a fascinating defense strategy i think this is their

SPEAKER_59: only shot one of our besties had this theory that he was prescribed two prescription drugs one was adderall what was the other one called this was he said the patch it's it's a drug i wasn't familiar with i guess it's a patch but when you combine these two things apparently it basically shuts down or kills the part of your brain that deals with inhibition inhibition it's cocaine yeah what if his defense strategy was yeah like only an insane person would do this and i was acting insane because i was

SPEAKER_239: prescribed these drugs that had these drug conflicts and it like killed part of my brain i mean and you

SPEAKER_10: think about it every criminal on wall street said cocaine is my defense but this you could say he

SPEAKER_59: was maybe he was legally prescribed if you could show the prescription by the way i'm not saying yes should get him off i'm just we're basically workshopping what his only shot of his defense would

David Friedberg: be right well and think about it sex he acted manic after ftx collapsed so that mania of doing 20 twitter

SPEAKER_60: spaces would be there's something so insane about what he did right that you that all it's almost like

SPEAKER_59: a like a prescribed insanity defense like i was prescribed a drunk combination that made me insane

SPEAKER_124: anybody have a most loathsome company as we wrap the only way that you could come up with that is like you'd have to have two parents that were like law professors or something all right most most

SPEAKER_649: slow some company what if this is his defense you know yeah my parents boohoo no no no he'll claim

Chamath Palihapitiya: insanity jacal he'll say of course yeah and they'll have a i mean do we think that his parents aren't

SPEAKER_230: going to help his defense you know at this point this this kid's got to go away for life that's it

SPEAKER_02: wow i think it's got to be life i think it's got to be 30 plus years i mean it's just going to be

SPEAKER_65: billions of dollars what kind of justice system do we have when people go away for 20 30 40 years

SPEAKER_96: per billion would you sentence a decade per billion at least yeah i mean just you gotta

SPEAKER_02: put a proportional sacks you gotta don't you think the justice system needs to look at other people who are in jail for selling cocaine for selling marijuana for for robbing a a convenience store they'll put somebody away for robbing a convenience store for a decade or two what are they going to put him in jail for just because somebody came in with a gun and robbed a convenience store they

SPEAKER_625: get 20 years this kid's going to get off screw that look i think what do you guys think the over

SPEAKER_65: under is here you think it's like i'll set it at i'll set it at 35 years i'll take the over i'll take

SPEAKER_655: 30. i think this is made i said a good line then which i think this is i think this is made off

SPEAKER_21: level no i agree over on 30. yeah i think i think i said 35. i think it's going to be a hunt uh multiple hundreds of years sentence i agree and you'll be gone for life yeah i think it's going to be life but

SPEAKER_65: i said a good line uh okay most slow some company is ftx anybody want to go for a second no keep moving

SPEAKER_04: no i'll add one i'm gonna this year i'm gonna give my last year i gave it to tyson foods one of the largest slaughter of animals on earth this year i'm going to give it to a company called inotiv i-n-o-t-i-v this is the company that was busted by the feds for their animal abuse in their dog breeding facility uh where 4 000 beagles were rescued one of which i adopted and this is a publicly

SPEAKER_68: traded company stocks down 90 some odd percent which i'm thrilled to see terrible business awful awful kind of you know inhumane behavior and so i i want to kind of give them a special shout out

SPEAKER_53: this year look at you and you're getting the virtue signaling points of rescuing the dog to increase

SPEAKER_667: your q factor amongst besties well done max q factor max q factor max q factor yeah anybody else have a

Chamath Palihapitiya: loathsome yes uh i'd like to pick this company uh which uh destroyed the environment for a bunch of

SPEAKER_13: endangered species that i would otherwise have used for various fur pelts for my sweaters and such

SPEAKER_49: yes and i would like to go with blah blah blah blah which was torturing puppies uh 18 of which i rescued and i am now have them in the j cal puppy rescue i am the most sensitive and caring person

SPEAKER_00: uh also i would like to add sea world i am in the process of raising money to build bigger uh pools to eventually release all the orcas in captivity that is my new focus for next year okay uh moving on

SPEAKER_592: oh god do we want to do best meme do we want to do best new tech i'll do best new tech i don't have

David Friedberg: a best name i'm going with fusion for best new tech i'm going with i'm going to go with chat gpt i

SPEAKER_04: think what was so impressive about chat gpt um and and the experience that everyone's had using it is that it really for the first time i think elucidated where uh these kind of machine learning tools can take us and what the kind of new product experience can be what generative ai can yield uh things beyond i think the scope of what a lot of people were imagining before so it was really so revealing and as you guys know there's an absolute friggin tidal wave of people trying to start companies that are leveraging tools and generative ai uh to kind of reinvent everything from workplace tools

SPEAKER_68: enterprise software all the way through to media games and entertainment so that's why i think chat gpt was the most impressive new technology new tech tomorrow 2020 and then sax lightning round please

SPEAKER_18: best new tech alpha full three which basically has almost near perfect accuracy in protein folding

SPEAKER_73: sax best new tech i can't improve on the chat gpt so yeah let's keep rolling best trend best

SPEAKER_12: trend in uh business and in the world mine is uh startups getting back and investors getting back

David Friedberg: to reality and the what i call the age of austerity the age of focus after the age of excess that's the best trend in our world the age of austerity what's your best trend for 2022 marginal cost of

SPEAKER_18: energy generation and storage is now in the low single digit pennies per kilowatt hour which basically means that uh not only will energy be free and abundant but it will i think over the next decade or two create a massive peace dividend it will rewrite our foreign policy it will rewrite national security that is the reason why people should care about energy transition not necessarily climate change although that's important it's a distant second to keeping men and women out of war and keeping our borders safe

SPEAKER_04: well said anybody else have a best trend i'll pick it up so last year i'm i said the crater economy

SPEAKER_68: uh which i think refer to all these kind of creators creating new products and businesses beyond their content this year i think that the trend that was again enabled and demonstrated through chat gpt is the narrator economy i think this is going to be a really important trend going forward we'll talk about it in the prediction episode but i think the idea that people are and they're starting to experience this and using chat gpt and dolly and other kind of generative ai tools is how much you can kind of narrate the product you want to see created and have it created for you on the fly and i think that that's a really kind of powerful mind shift for people and frame shift for people um and i think it really starts to change a lot of the way that people behave entertain themselves businesses operate and so on so i'd call it the narrator economy and i think it's really kind of starting to emerge okay do you have a trend sacks yeah i would say best friend is the growing

SPEAKER_75: realization that the corporate media is failing it does not tell the truth it has an agenda more and more people are opting out of it and going with independent media i think you know what elon mentioned where we're going to start holding these corporate journalists the same standard on twitter as regular citizens they're outraged by that but that's a huge step in the right direction the fact of the matter is is that the press or the media is the prism through which reality is refracted and if it's not giving us an accurate representation of the world we can't begin to solve our problems because we don't have accurate information and i think more and more people are waking up from the matrix and realizing that we're living in this media controlled simulation and um again i don't think we're going to make progress until the um this power that the media seems to have over our reality gets uh gets broken okay let's go for

SPEAKER_132: worst trend my worst trend is the fed trying to play catch up the fed trying to play catch up sorry buddy

David Friedberg: the fed trying to play catch up is the worst trend for me over steering into the crash what do you got

SPEAKER_18: chamath for the worst trend of 2020 the worst trend was the continued profligate spending by the federal government we have record deficits record debt and this year we're ending the year by adding another 1.65 trillion dollars of spending that nobody can seemingly account for it is truly the christmas tree of christmas trees uh in terms of bills so we just have not gotten religion yet around being

SPEAKER_207: measured in how we spend money good one worst trend sex last year my worst trend was authoritarianism

SPEAKER_75: growing all over the world and i think that's a pretty decent prediction this year's uh worst trend is the government colluding with big tech to engage in censorship this is how they're going to do the

SPEAKER_59: authoritarianism we talked about it with shellenberger and elon this whole series of revelations known as the twitter files we can see this collusion this cozy relationship between the censors at twitter and big tech and the bureaucrats at the fbi and dhs and pentagon this is a really disturbing dystopian relationship as we talked about earlier and you know i feel like we spend all this time talking about the authoritarianism in russia and china we seem to be

SPEAKER_75: obsessed with combating that and going to war with that but we don't spend enough time talking about this growing authoritarianism at home the media doesn't seem to want to report on the twitter files at all let's focus on stopping authoritarianism here well said friedberg what's your worst trend my worst trend

SPEAKER_04: for 2022 is what i would call interest rate mania and i think that this is the mania that we've been caught up in on this show that other people on our thread people in the business community in the investing community where everyone's obsession with did the fed act soon enough or late enough

SPEAKER_68: and that interest rates ultimately drive success or failure with building businesses and making good

SPEAKER_04: investments all right the truth is when interest rates go the wrong way good investments uh you know can kind of strengthen their way can can can make their way through those environments bad investments cannot good businesses can make their way through and bad investments cannot and so i think our our mania around the fact that interest rates and the fed ultimately drove bad outcomes in businesses and investments is a flawed um kind of assertion and we all want to kind of get back to the drunken days

SPEAKER_68: where you know a low interest rate environment enables us all to be successful and wealthy and i think that that's kind of changed so i think it's time for us to get away from the interest rate media and focus more on solid investing and solid business building okay here

SPEAKER_31: we go lightning round we got two to go favorite media of 2022 for me it was top gun house of the

SPEAKER_00: dragon white lotus 2 but i'm going to pick my favorite here something you may not have heard of the uh film tar i highly recommend it but i did like those other three tremendously what do you got

SPEAKER_73: sacks for your favorite media of 2022 house the dragon i guess i enjoyed quite a bit like you did um i'll give a shout out to my movie dolly land which will be coming out next summer if we're

SPEAKER_75: going to um include podcast episodes i would give a shout out to the unheard episode where freddie sayers interviews john meersheimer the professor of international relations he explains the origins of the ukraine war and has some really pessimistic predictions about what might happen next i suggest

SPEAKER_77: everyone watch it if they want to understand this conflict and where it may be going next year

SPEAKER_696: chamath you have any favorite media for 2022 you want to share i thought yellowstone kicked ass

SPEAKER_18: absolutely incredible there's uh i think it's on hulu um but there's a show with steve corell a

SPEAKER_19: little short series called the patient oh which is about a serial killer that kidnaps his psychologist and locks him in his basement to try to help him prevent him killing more people and i thought it

SPEAKER_88: was really really well done never have i ever the latest season another just brilliant offering from mindy kaling she's unbelievable those are those are probably the top ones what do you got freeberg any

SPEAKER_04: media yeah i read a book this year that i really liked um it's called the vital question by a guy

SPEAKER_68: named nick lane someone recommended it to me it's uh he's a biochemist and he kind of talks a little bit about the origin of life on earth it really ties into this idea that there are certain call it principles of physics and statistics that make life predictive and predictable but i think the way that he kind of walks through how a lot of things emerge uh uh in life and and how life ultimately kind of developed on this planet are uh are really well shown so yeah i give i give his book a shout out it was

SPEAKER_18: a it was a really good rate so that book the vital question is incredible the other one that he wrote which is called life ascending those two books you must read if you don't want to be a luddite in my

SPEAKER_88: opinion all right uh i will also also for those people who don't understand the difference between power and energy you will learn what that is very good i have two book recommendations putting the rabbit in

SPEAKER_441: the hat is uh brian cox you may know him from secession he um has a great book and he reads the audio book very enjoyable i'm halfway through quentin tarantino's cinema speculation and enjoying it

David Friedberg: very much so you will enjoy it tremendously okay and now we do the rudy giuliani award for self-immolation

SPEAKER_441: this is for the person who poured lighter fluid and gasoline over themselves and lit themselves on fire for no apparent reason i go with kevin o'leary who secured a 15 million dollar bag from ftx and then decided to try to defend it uh 18 ways to sunday burning whatever reputation he had who do you have

SPEAKER_247: in your rudy giuliani award this will be controversial for you guys i'm gonna go with elon musk

SPEAKER_68: i don't think that elon put himself in the position that he did uh with bad intentions or without paying attention i think he's taken on uh a role uh in buying and running twitter that is you know principled and uh you know in his mind and many other people's minds a really important role that someone needs to play uh unfortunately i think his reputation has gotten really hurt because of you know that role he's not making a lot of friends and uh he's not he's causing a lot of reputational damage he obviously had a lot of good and important things he was working on prior to taking on the additional burden of twitter and while many people appreciate his doing it i think that it's causing him a lot of reputational damage and so yeah i i don't mean to kind of be offensive in

SPEAKER_124: saying that but i think he's he's gotten it's certainly been a hard thing to do it's certainly been a hard thing to do but you're saying self-immolation freebrook because he took it

SPEAKER_04: on himself he could have just took it on himself yeah i'm not saying it's just like one interpretation yeah it's not it's not like the rudy giuliani idiocy i think he's taken on the burden of doing this and i think it's causing him a lot of reputational harm okay it's an interpretation of

SPEAKER_73: the award what do you got a sax and chamath well i mean if if i were to interpret the award i think the way it was originally intended i think i got to give it to herschel walker this year unfortunately

SPEAKER_75: and i i wish republicans would stop winning this award at least herschel never gave any speeches

SPEAKER_282: next to a dildo shop but uh nonetheless i am so sorry that i'm so delighted sacks that you've been so self-aware about the follies of the dying maga the last throes of the maga nation i want to find

SPEAKER_59: some democrats to give this to i want to give it to that brain dead senator uh from pennsylvania what's his name uh federman federman thank you i wanted to give it to federman but he won

SPEAKER_231: so i don't know what i'm supposed to do you know it's like no listen when when a republican

SPEAKER_59: federman self-immolates like rudy or herschel or something like that they get laughed out of town and when the democrat does it like a federman they just get elected so i i don't know what to

SPEAKER_61: say all right you got any final words here go ahead i mean you gotta end this episode it's gonna

SPEAKER_124: be the longest episode ever i think it's poor poor producer nick whoever signed the papers

SPEAKER_88: for the whole search and seizure at mar-a-lago looks kind of like an idiot so that that was not

SPEAKER_725: politically astute okay i think you would say the fbi then okay poorly handled that's actually a great

SPEAKER_59: that's a great one actually if we're gonna get serious for a second the combination of revelations if we're gonna look over this whole year remember jason when i i basically spoke up at the time they raided mar-a-lago and said that it was heavy-handed and unnecessary and now you're telling you guys for

SPEAKER_19: years donald trump is an idiot savant minus the savant why all of you guys just project

Chamath Palihapitiya: all of this like insane genius evil level stuff he's not capable of that this is a simpleton who

SPEAKER_450: likes attention he stole a bunch of souvenirs that he didn't read when he was in my position

SPEAKER_15: hasn't read now kept in a box downstairs just to say he had them that's exactly right i was the one who championed the souvenir i know he's a souvenir guy you said he was selling secrets to

SPEAKER_729: the south no i did not say that i said souvenirs no you suggested it you suggested it i did not

SPEAKER_298: you were tweeting jared kushner an elaborate conspiracy theory i'm saying sorry i know it's

SPEAKER_216: not a conspiracy theory when you do it and and guys and this is the same person that basically

SPEAKER_19: in the in the beginning of his presidential campaign in 2016 in front of hillary clinton said absolutely i bend the laws that you created the tax laws to my favor because i'm not stupid

Chamath Palihapitiya: when she called him a tax dodger and it turns out after all these years he was telling the truth

SPEAKER_733: he basically once again the show ends with trump it's been a great 2022 no no but honestly like

Chamath Palihapitiya: like did we learn anything except that these tax laws are egregiously stupid and the only people that are consistently guaranteed to make money in these tax laws are real estate investors if you put these two things together a real estate investor who happened to be very poor at his job which trump turned out to be packed billions of dollars of nols that he was able to use to wash his taxes for years and years and by the way and he was clearly proud of it he was just goading the democrats in not releasing them they went through all this rigmarole and what did we find out he had huge nols he had huge deductions and he paid no taxes is that shocking to any of us it's like it's like

SPEAKER_09: chapelle said he came out of the house told everyone everything you think is going on inside that house is going on and went back and then he walked back inside the house yeah it was pretty

SPEAKER_53: great chapelle got it all right listen for david sachs the rain man for the queen of quinoa sultan of science david friedberg and the dictator himself chamath polyhapathia it has been an honor and a

SPEAKER_00: privilege to do this podcast with you gentlemen this is the longest show in the history of the pod enjoy everybody uh r.i.p producer nix uh next 48 hours and we'll see everybody next year

SPEAKER_745: love you guys happy holidays love you best i'll catch you