SPEAKER_00: congressman how should we refer to you today well i prefer dean but you know let's go let's go with that mr phillips and just i'm asking people to be keen on dean so i might as well run with it

SPEAKER_05: oh there you go oh well you know what i'm a big supporter of the dean machine already oh you know about the dean machine with this gelato i'm all up on the dean machine by the way i bought an old

SPEAKER_00: international harvester metro van for 20s when we did activations like south by southwest and i

SPEAKER_11: used to own one of those by the way no you did i yeah i bought it for my ranch come on i love that

SPEAKER_00: baby so i bought one for talente and i saw how people just immediately were attracted to it and fell in love with it and i thought hey when i ran for congress i'm going to do the same thing so i

SPEAKER_09: created the government repair truck are you driving around in this international harvester of course

SPEAKER_00: you're kidding yeah i'll show you i'll send you a picture of it it's cool it's awesome it's got a 1980 chevy chassis under it but it's still the still the basic uh nuts and bolts we're referring to a

SPEAKER_15: type of uh automobile you can ask one of your three drivers about it david sorry david your driver

SPEAKER_17: can take you in there ask your miami driver he probably owns the muscle cars i don't think your

SPEAKER_29: la driver owns muscle cars here we go let's start this three two hey everybody hey everybody welcome

SPEAKER_15: to the all in podcast with us again today the dictator himself chamath polyhapitiya the rain man david sax and the sultan of science david friedberg we are going to continue our conversation series with presidential candidates today our fourth presidential candidate is on the program dean phillips represents minnesota's third district and he's about 25 years younger than trump and biden at 54 years old dean before getting into politics i understand you were the ceo of your family's spirits business and you ran talenti gelato oh that pistachio flavor amazing so welcome to the all in podcast meet the other

SPEAKER_17: besties and maybe you could just start out by telling us why you are running for president yeah

SPEAKER_00: well i'll tell you after being in the vodka business and the ice cream business and actually the coffee business i think i understand at least what americans want so that's a good start uh well i'll tell you a little about my background why i'm here i lost my dad in the vietnam war when i was just six months old he had grew up with no money in saint paul minnesota earned an rotc scholarship on behalf of the federal government of course uh to pursue his education uh went to vietnam in 1968 just before i was born i got to see the u.s land on the moon and i think regularly about how he looked up two days before his helicopter crashed and he died looked up and saw americans on the moon and looked down and saw america at its worst and literally that experience in no small way is uh what brings me to this day and uh i was six months old my mom was 24 and widowed and we moved in with my great grandparents for the first three years of my life and i got lucky when i was three my mom married a wonderful extraordinary man who adopted me eddie phillips brought me into a family of great blessings my grandmother became dear abby and my aunt ann lander so i grew up in a family of a lot of advice and i've lived on both sides of the advantage and i recognize it i remember the day i turned uh 26 uh and i counted the days uh that my father had lived my birth father and i remember the day after uh i had lived as many days as him uh my life changed forever and i i became inspired uh joined our family business after college uh ended up running our beverage business we created belvedere vodka which we sold lvmh and then got into the ice cream business and did the same thing you guys created belvedere yeah we my father and i and our partner steve gill went on a trip to poland in 1993 hoping to sell them phillips schnapps which we made in minnesota we thought eastern europe was ready for peppermint and peach schnapps and and we we were touring distilleries and we see both in in duty free in the airport and in the distilleries the most beautiful packaging we had ever seen in the spirits

SPEAKER_38: business now mind you this is when absolute and stoli were like the pinnacle of luxury right fifteen dollar you know average now and my father immediately yeah sat at a restaurant that night

SPEAKER_00: literally this is a literal napkin story he on a napkin created a little matrix and said if stolen absolute are fifteen dollars and they're the most premium in a fast-growing category why shouldn't there be a 25 vodka and why should this not be it so we negotiated with the polish government our partner tad dorta from poland helped us and we first obtained the distribution rights and then when poland privatized their spirits industry we acquired the distillery and the ip and the rest was history and you know cork finish beautiful bottle we sold it we talked about the lowest common denominator the pens we used to write the orders the way we carried it made all the difference in the world and then we use that same template in ice cream because what we found is in every category of every consumer product category in which there are two main competitors coke and pepsi stoli absolute ben and jerry's and haagen dazs they tend to fight to the bottom lower pricing um you know frankly um demeaning consumers and there's always an opportunity to introduce something a little bit more premium a little bit more special that's still an affordable luxury and belvedere by the way was built by jay-z i can tell you that story if you want to hear it it's an extraordinary one yeah yeah tell that story

SPEAKER_41: too yeah yeah so so so far you're like you're our kind of candidate we're like exactly yeah you just

SPEAKER_46: got four votes apparently we're all looking at you like who is this guy this is awesome yeah so when

SPEAKER_09: people ask me about my platform i'll say i'll be a storyteller about vodka i'm ready to start popping bottles over here by the way that's exactly what jay-z did sax and i popped many a belvedere bottle in

SPEAKER_51: when we had our run in la true or not true sax it was a tough choice between belvedere and gray goose

SPEAKER_52: oh i'll tell you that story too by the way anyway so we introduced belvedere and it and by the way

SPEAKER_38: what what we learned in hindsight is that our aperture was way too small you know we were way too we we sold it by the bottle not by the case we only went to restaurants and bars at first not to the big stores we wanted to be special and we completely underestimated the size of what this category could be sydney frank who introduced gray goose took a much bigger approach anyway so i'm

SPEAKER_00: sitting at home getting ready for work one day i have mtv on and it's probably a year after we introduced belvedere it's doing well but not not big so sorry this is what mid 90s yeah i can't remember the year chamath it's probably you know 95 yeah yeah 90s thereabouts i'm watching mtv i see a jay-z video and it is all belvedere it's in the fridge he's holding it there are people dancing he's pouring it on him and i froze called my dad immediately who of course didn't have mtv on and and i said you got to turn it on he couldn't find the channel i'm like hey dad you know mtv repeats the same videos you know five ten times a day so we got to the office and sure enough we had the tv on it came back on the whole company gathered at that time we were probably 10 people and we gathered around the tv and watch this video and i'm telling you guys within two weeks the brand completely popped and my dad jay-z ended up calling my father uh they had a dinner in new york city uh a memorable one for both actually he ended up introducing a vodka some years later called armadale right and it failed miserably but it was one of the first times that i think in this new culture

SPEAKER_38: of influencers and celebrity endorsers that that magic happened he almost literally made belvedere

SPEAKER_59: so that's the story did you guys sign him to a deal and pay him money or no no in fact

SPEAKER_00: we talked about that and the core so this is the brand foundation of the brand house was authenticity we didn't do a damn thing that had anything to do with anything that wasn't true the makers of it the product itself we didn't we didn't pay people to talk about it unlike sydney frank with gray goose so we chose not to it was all natural and then here's the other cool thing and this is how my campaign is going to work we sent 200 bottles in very special beautiful boxes to 200 influencers we we believe that if we could simply seed the brand with 200 people all around the us that they could be the content makers and the advocates the ambassadors in fact one of them went to this guy right behind me bill clinton and robert de niro another example robert redford you know leaders of industry and actors and and uh and the like robert de niro gets one of these things and

SPEAKER_38: there's a note inside with a picture of the distiller bogdan zelensky it said watch page three the tiffany section i'm sorry the tiffany location of the wall street journal on call it it was like monday february 6th to only 200 people knew what was coming the ad in the paper didn't show a bottle of anything it

SPEAKER_00: just said belvedere bogdan wants to know how you like it so we literally did an ad that cost gosh knows back then probably a hundred thousand dollars tiny little top corner ad that spoke to 200 people in the united states of america that had no idea nobody else knew what it was robert de niro goes to the beverly hills hotel or the peninsula i can't remember orders a belvedere martini soon thereafter the barman says mr deniro we have absolute we have stoli i don't have that brand and he says i don't think you heard me i want a belvedere martini so the barman sends like the bar back to whatever the the wine and spirit shop is on rodeo driver in beverly beverly hills and the guy he comes back with a bottle and the entire bar watched this little episode and i'm telling you once again within a week that store was selling through belvedere like it was water so these little moments where you identify the right people and now mind you this is in the analog era there was no internet there was no social media this was people simply talking to people so we sold belvedere to lvmh and then we looked at the ice cream category so ben and jerry's doing the same thing if you can tell us about that what

SPEAKER_61: is it like to negotiate against lvmh and bernard arnault and what why do you sell it when it's working

SPEAKER_00: i guess maybe it's a question you know i'll tell you well this is not a story i've shared with many um they were very disingenuous and uh it it deeply troubles me to this day uh the way that my father was treated uh the promises that were made simply to get a deal done and then not kept um i think is a reflection on principle and i'll leave it at that um a lesson learned uh in fact rather than going through a competitive process which i think any enterprise would do to maximize value of a brand our family ethos was a little different and um and i think we bit and in hindsight it was a mistake um but i'll leave it at that you learn less hey you know what you learn lessons every experience to this very day i'm learning them every day on the campaign trail too that was one i would never make

SPEAKER_17: again all right well you got the two david's votes with the vodka you got mine with the gelato and if you launch a luxury fabric brand or sweaters i think you're gonna get you months first i got

SPEAKER_00: some other work to do for eight years so we'll do that afterwards i'll just wrap this long story up so we introduced you know talente obviously does well we sold it to unilever then i opened a couple coffee shops with my family in minneapolis thinking this would be kind of a fun folly and then we're watching the 2016 election uh at home uh i thought i would wake up the next morning we'd have hillary clinton as president not that that was thrilling to the world but it would have been safe and lo and behold um you know what happened and i remember telling my family that night like look give the guy a chance he's not going to act like that in the white house the presidency changes you it humbles you it moderates you and my family thought i was it you know i was a joke and i woke up the next morning my 16 year old was in her room crying my 18 year old was a freshman at college we facetimed her and she's crying and i sat at the breakfast table guys and i promised my daughters i would do something i raised them to be participants not not observers and i looked around at my district i thought maybe i'll run for congress i looked around and uh i hadn't the district had not been won by a democrat since the 1958 election this is now we're looking at the 2018 election 60 years and the man who had won won his fourth term by 14 points and people told me i was crazy you know you're out of your mind you're giving up a a good life to run for misery and you'll never make it and you'll embarrass yourself which is why i did it and not only did we win we won by 12 points we had fun we used invitation not confrontation and i drove that little van all around the district to the most unhospitable parts i opened the service window i served coffee and i sat i put two chairs out and people would just come up and talk and i found magic in just letting people share what's on their mind they're so unheard anyhow i get to well i can tell you now i want to tell you why i'm doing it but that's the story of where i came from and why i'm doing this and look at the end of the day i'm the one of those that got lucky you know there's a lot of kids who lost their dads in vietnam who did not have the magical moment that i had to be adopted by an amazing father and that was the difference for me it's my job to make sure others get that same chance simple as that before we

SPEAKER_70: jump into the future about why you're running and what you what you see for the country talk about the years that you spent in congress what did you observe there what what is it like day to day and

SPEAKER_00: what do you think is working and what isn't working i wish we had three hours i get there chamath i get there the first week of 2019 and like all of you that come from organizational enterprise experience i assumed that nancy pelosi and kevin mccarthy would have a have a strategy to introduce the new members of congress both democrats and republicans you know get to know each other do a ropes course you know and build some trust or something and my goodness it was just the opposite guys we were put on separate buses going to different events and i realized right away

SPEAKER_38: that they had a systemic segregation strategy on day one and sincerely the two parties this is

SPEAKER_00: i'll tell you what i've learned we talk more about this the only people that want to protect the status quo of the duopoly and the political industrial complex that just surrounds it all are the two parties and it is destructive and i will get into that but i recognize right away all of my colleagues that the leadership in both uh democratic and republican side they wanted to keep us separate they did not want to give us education and information uh and they wanted to keep us so busy that we could not become threats to their power structure you can imagine members of congress tend to be pretty ambitious people and ultimately they were smart to do that because uh they made members of congress they do to this day raise raise money all week long 10 000 hours per week is what senators and house members spend raising money i've got a bill actually that would preclude it from 8 a.m to 5 p.m because it's such an unmitigated joke and disaster the fact that in the united states that a pack representing a special interest or corporation can hand a five thousand dollar check to a member of congress at a steakhouse on wednesday evening and then that member serves on a committee

SPEAKER_38: in which that business or special interest has business in front of the next day is the most unbelievable form of legal corruption you could possibly imagine so that's one needless to say

SPEAKER_00: i resolved right after that first week of orientation that i would do it differently i befriended my republican colleagues my wife on elise and i started having bipartisan dinners at our house i joined the

SPEAKER_38: problem solvers caucus i hope you guys know about it it's the most important small caucus in congress we're now 32 democrats and 32 republicans committed to doing what we're supposed to do get to know each

SPEAKER_00: other talk policy and try to make a difference now we're the workhorses not the show horses so you don't know most of our names including me but we were the ones invited to the white house uh uh in in like week three of our service i was one of four democrats there were four republicans that uh president trump invited to the situation room to make a proposition to get us through the shutdown which i can talk about that bizarre hour of my life as well um and that's how i resolved to do it now i'm ranked depending on the the survey uh number one number two number ten uh most bipartisan members of the entire uh u.s congress and including governors uh and and i vote relatively progressive it's not about just the votes it's about the ethos it's about uh republican-sponsored bills that come from me it's about me sponsoring republican-led bills uh and that's what makes me a little bit different than i think just about every member of congress not to mention i think i'm the only one that's willing to torpedo a career so that the country isn't torpedoed by this nonsense and dysfunction um there's a lot more to talk about but the it all starts yeah with a systematic segregation and a focus on fighting each other instead of fighting for each other i can talk about

SPEAKER_61: it all day long let's start there dean what give us the assessment of what's happening in the white house right now before we talk about your candidacy just like what's going on well let me just say i

SPEAKER_00: respect president biden i he's a man i've had in my house uh for an event he's a man with whom i've flown on air force one twice he did a beautiful video for my daughter he called my mother um i think he did a fine job i think he was the only man that could have defeated donald trump in 2020. and i have to say i think it's fair to say too he's probably the only democrat who could and will lose to donald trump in 2024. he's a human being uh he's now in his 80s uh he is clearly um on the decline he's not incompetent i believe he's surrounded himself by competent able principled people and i believe the white house is running as a team as most do but do i think that he will be in a position to continue leading this country in the future i do not i think i'm joined by about 75 percent in the country of the country and saying that i also believe the policies that we pass for

SPEAKER_38: the most part are investments for the future in infrastructure the chips act i think is a very

SPEAKER_00: important bill which by the way has national security implications as you guys know the inflation reduction act a bizarre name for a bill that's really a energy and climate bill i think is is pretty good legislation and i think he reconstituted our allies around the world that had been frayed to a point of great danger during the trump administration so i salute the past but this is really an election about the future it's about a generational change it's about creating you know really a new american century that will be powered by systems structures people technologies that i'm just afraid that president biden and former president trump can't even comprehend let alone create thoughtful policy to both nurture and also manage and i think that's where we're at and i want to i think we have wars overseas that i

SPEAKER_38: think in no small part are caused by a generation that is so focused on techniques and tools of the past that they can't even dare look to building peace for the future that's i think why we have the middle east still going that's why ukraine you know the vice president has some ownership in some of these

SPEAKER_00: issues that i'm afraid um have to be exposed and they're the truth and i'm happy to talk about them but most of all i'll wrap it with this affordability in the united states of america is absolutely the most challenging issue facing americans they don't believe that their government is listening they don't believe the president understands they don't believe congress is able to do anything about it because we're so dysfunctional and that's another mission that i'm on right now to end this nonsense i am going to build a team of rivals i will have a white house and a cabinet comprised of both democrats and republicans the most able leaders imaginable who have run multi-billion dollar

SPEAKER_38: organizations in some cases understand customer service will employ zero-based budgeting to the

SPEAKER_00: extent we can we will employ a world-class consulting firm to look at every single government program system structure uh and um and personnel to identify ways to save money these are things that this president and frankly no president who doesn't have business experience non-profit leadership experience

SPEAKER_38: and government experience could possibly imagine because they're so stuck in their siloed ways of

SPEAKER_00: thinking he's been there for 50 years and it's time for change i was two three years old when he became

SPEAKER_17: a senator so let's get specific on the issues and go into foreign policy which is david sax's i think number one issue this election of course but first just to be clear on biden do you believe he's in cognitive decline do the democrats privately believe he's in cognitive decline and to what extent do you think he'd make it through the next presidency or do you think this is sort of a ronald reagan situation where he might look back on it and he's got some early onset of some cognitive decline what

SPEAKER_00: do you personally think and what are democrats think i don't want to impress upon anybody or give you the sense that i think he has a form of dementia or alzheimer's or significant cognitive decline um but anybody who pays attention can see the change and i'm not i'm not you know people are saying that i'm causing his problems i could risk his you know re-election you know i'm not the guy that has him losing to trump nationally down in five of six battleground states the lowest approval ratings in presidential history almost and i'm certainly not the guy that has shown his you know his decline that's on video that's on audio you see it it's natural he's a human being for goodness sakes all i'm doing you guys is saying the quiet part out loud the only one you ask the question do others talk about this the question is is anybody not talking about this of course they are you guys

SPEAKER_85: they've really created an opportunity for you because like you said everyone's talking about this of course but no one's willing to say it of course what has been the blowback in the democratic party from your declaring what do you think i'm not being thrown flowers and parties let me tell

SPEAKER_00: you that guys i'll tell you i i i i think most would consider me an affable friendly well-liked member of congress i know that that's my that's my ethos uh my friends are still my friends i think they're disappointed because this is not what you do when you're a member of a party you fall in line you shush up you sit down you get in line and you do nothing to upset the apple cart of others who've been waiting in line perhaps a little longer than you so you can imagine the pushback has been strong the arrows sharp and the pain quite significant but nothing compared to the pain that americans are feeling right now and that's why i'm doing this and i should also let you know i had no intention of doing this a year ago i was on a radio show and a host asked me if i thought the president should run again and i said of course not he implicitly if not explicitly said he would be a transitional president kind of the bridge most members of congress thought he was going to stand down that's why that's why newsom and pritzker and uh whitmer and so many others were kind of making their plans and i said and if he doesn't pass the torch then we should ensure that at least that the stage has newer generation candidates to give voters a choice anyway months went by i started seeing the polls change dramatically the tenor and tone of constituent discussions with me and every single one of my colleagues was changing graphically all the independents moderate republicans that voted for the president i think for the right reasons were increasingly telling us that they're not going to do it again they may not vote for trump but they're not going to vote rather than vote for biden and over time it got to a point actually guys were i resigned from the house leadership table because my position was so incongruent with those who were in positions to do something about it that i didn't feel it was appropriate for me to sit with them anymore and i was really frustrated i called gretchen whitmer i called jb pritzker i made public calls to the candidates whose names are better known than me to jump in you know the water's warm you guys it's a democratic primary that's what we do not only did those two not take my calls which they would have any other day they had their political operatives take

SPEAKER_38: those calls and they told me please don't use their names that's the culture that's the culture you guys that we're dealing with you will be blackballed you will be disenfranchised you will be let out the

SPEAKER_00: door if you so much as even issue a word that you might challenge a sitting president of the united states this is the united states of america it's appalling anyhow i'm frustrated we saw that we we saw

David Sacks: that happen with rfk jr sure because he declared initially as a democrat and biden wouldn't give him

SPEAKER_85: secret service protection despite the you know enormous personal safety risks and threats he's actually the same thing for me by the way guys you can imagine yeah and biggest line item in my budget

SPEAKER_38: right now by the way is security the biggest line item the second biggest line item it's going to suppress that is getting onto the ballot right well that was the thing is they wouldn't let they

SPEAKER_91: wouldn't let rfk on the ballot they wouldn't debate him they just want to pretend like he didn't

David Sacks: exist and they basically drove him out of the party so now he's running as an independent

SPEAKER_84: do you think you're gonna be able to get on the ballot as a democrat on in these primaries absolutely

SPEAKER_00: and we're making those choices right now david because first of all it's obscene i want to let you all know that in a country that prides itself on being a democracy a democratic republic i can't

SPEAKER_38: even tell you how many states literally create high barriers to entry to satisfy the two parties to ensure that their coronated candidate has an advantage over anybody else i'm talking about the most egregious ones give us an example of what you have to do oh the mo the most egregious are oftentimes the deepest blue new york is is close to impossible when i say impossible how so explain

SPEAKER_00: it to us like what you have to do so the reason i started in new hampshire is it has a 103 year old tradition of being the first in the nation primary they take this really seriously they're the most engaged americans in the country they have a process they you know we walk through the snow we answer their questions and you also all you need is a thousand dollar check you got to be 35 years old you got to be born in the united states of america and you too can become a candidate for president of the united states that's what i did they have the most beautiful ritual in the state house in concord new hampshire that is worth going to one time just to see the majesty of filing for president of the united states so there are 21 of us on the democratic side of the ballot because that's how it should be

SPEAKER_61: take take a state like virginia wait wait hold on there's 21 people running for the democratic

SPEAKER_00: but that's incredible i had no idea yeah 21 uh marianne williamson and i are the best known of those 21 because the president of the united states chose not to so that's how you have it you asked about other states though uh new york virginia uh 450 to 500 000 to pay consulting firms to pay people 25 26 per signature to just sit outside and just say hey can we get your signature to get this guy on a ballot now it's not grassroots it's not old school caucusing democracy it is pay to play and we would we would need it we would need a well we're going to have to raise uh probably six yeah maybe i'm sorry maybe maybe maybe less than that maybe five million dollars we have a staff of three people right now and legal counsel just to get my name on a primary ballot it's absurd marion williamson you know she's not going to be able to rfk as a as an independent by the way i think he should be i i'm not someone who i'm concerned about some of his positions but i think he should be able to get on the ballot it's you guys it's absurd it's obnoxious and what i've discovered in the last three weeks is going to be my mission after being president to fix because it is going to destroy the country from the inside and that is why we have the kind of candidates we have year after year after year and

SPEAKER_38: americans say they're that's why we have trumpism i like the fact you know most people become

SPEAKER_96: politicians as a career i've harped against this for a while and so they have everything to lose if they

SPEAKER_14: stand up against the party and they stand up against the political establishment within which they're meant to operate and therefore just a few people get to make all the decisions and control all the levers and everyone else is just a marionette but and they stay there forever

SPEAKER_54: dave they stay there forever and there's no term limits which is what we need that's why we need

SPEAKER_14: them the fact that you're self-made and you don't have anything to lose you can leave congress and you'll be fine you you're a citizen that can go back to work and do what you do and you're doing this as a service you're doing this because of your interest in the country it sounds like not to say that other folks don't but they're largely going to be driven and unfortunately adversely affected by the fact that they have to fall within the way that the game is played in order to operate and will not stand up and say the things that need to be said in order for us to

SPEAKER_16: make progress and get out of these situations but those are the perverse incentives i commend you for doing and i'm glad it's possible i think jason we should probably talk about the topic we have

SPEAKER_17: two topics that i think we're all passionate here the first is foreign policy the second is the budget and our out-of-control spending let's start with sacks you said you wanted hard questions welcome to the pot sacks foreign policy let's go let's bring it before we came on you well

SPEAKER_85: doesn't said hard questions let's go please meet david sacks hey david dean you said a minute ago that one of the reasons why the world's on fire is because of the bind administration's handling of foreign policies kind of led us to this point i think there was a really good example of this a week ago there was a new report out by a former u.n assistant secretary general named michael

David Sacks: von der schulenberg who worked at the u.n for 34 years he did a detailed study and reconstruction of what happened in uh march of 2022 so the month after the war and what he concluded is there was a bona fide deal on the table between russia and ukraine where putin was willing to pull back and leave and leave the territorial integrity of ukraine intact if ukraine would agree not to become part of nato and this is something that's been discussed um there's been many reports of this over the last several months ukrainian pravda had a story about that but now there's yet another confirmation that such a deal was available and yet boris johnson and joe biden said no we want to pressure putin not uh work out a peace deal with him and so thanks to western intervention that deal never happened now we're 20 months later and the ukrainian counter-offensive has failed it's been a fiasco the casualties have been absolutely massive horrifying you saw there was this article on time magazine this new profile of zielinski where his own aides and advisors say that he's delusional he can't accept that they're losing the war they furthermore say that even if the us provides more weapons more aid they don't have enough men they have enough soldiers to use them things are going that badly i think there's now a fear that ukraine could collapse in the next year even if we provide more aid so i guess you know i know that early on in the war you supported biden's policy i'm wondering have events on the ground now change your view at all how do you feel about it today do you think it was a mistake not to try and work out a peace deal in those early months of the war and if you were president what would you try

SPEAKER_85: and do differently now to try and end this thing well first of all i think we have to back up to 2014

SPEAKER_00: to talk about this david um you know first of all i i've seen that reporting i i do not have confirmation of the validity of that uh and and and if i did i could talk about it more directly but if that's the truth i would first ask did that include crimea and secondly it is not this it's not a united states decision about whether or not ukraine should agree to a peace deal it is uh ukraine's decision plain and simple but i do want to turn back the clock a little bit because i think

David Sacks: this all kind of plays together but by the way it didn't it didn't include crimea but zelinski was willing to go for that deal and it was the west who intervened and said no we want you to pressure

SPEAKER_00: putin and fight david like i said you know i i never speak to unless i can verify that myself and i've not seen that intelligence in the skiff i've not seen that presented to me uh if and by the way there are some times where i don't know most times none of us know everything uh if that is the case i would absolutely answer this question differently but based on what i do know uh i want to turn back the clock to 2014 you know this is where foreign policy matters you know president

SPEAKER_38: obama was a great orator i think a inspirational leader you know he came to the u.s presidency with only organizing state legislative and a couple or few years of senate experience as a very young man

SPEAKER_00: and joe biden was his vice president and when vladimir putin took crimea uh easily you know that set the tone for what's going on right now and we have not done a very good job of prevention that's true in health care that is true in poverty that is true in our foreign policy which is by the way maybe what happens when you spend 83 billion a year on on diplomacy and 850 billion a year on bombs and missiles not to mention go back to eisenhower in the military industrial complex david now you well know this it does it controls a lot of our policy because those who are making great profit find ways to influence those who open the piggy banks i think the crimea uh moment in 2014 the writing was on the wall that was putin's test if i take an inch well maybe they'll give me a mile and what happened during the biden presidency of course he took the mile i think it has implications now though david and all of you you know if we do not do our best to support ukraine and defending i think it doesn't just send a message to putin a post putin russia which is going to be a failed nation with a brain drain and something we should talk about but also sends a message to iran north korea and even china when i want to talk about that too because i think we have a much brighter future with them than most people portray

SPEAKER_38: as it relates to taiwan and that's the sad truth is we get ourselves into these situations

SPEAKER_00: that then layer up the consequences by withdrawing and afghanistan was another example of that so to answer your question had there been a peace deal at that point that simply would have and the deal would have been will give you your territory back in return for not uh entering nato who in their right mind would say that was a bad deal who in their right mind especially boris johnson well well by the way that's what you get when you get people like well i'm going to make this case as you guys know for comprehensive new generation of leaders all around the world in our country and in others that

SPEAKER_38: are sick of this nonsense sick of the bloodshed sick of enriching enterprise at the expense of human

SPEAKER_00: beings it happens here it happens in ukraine and russia and it's happening in the middle east plain

SPEAKER_116: and simple sex anything else on foreign policy you want to go to hacking off now would be i think a

SPEAKER_00: shameful horrible mistake the one thing i would argue right now david is those who are most likely going to be subject to putin's terror the countries in europe should be carrying a much bigger bigger part

SPEAKER_38: of this load you know we have 750 bases and installations around the world in 80 countries

SPEAKER_00: we're the most dominant presence in world history of any government and we spend more on our military than the next i think 11 nations combined for gosh sakes you know and and if anyone thinks that a kinetic risk the united states is the most likely harm that will be done us not cyber or not social or not biological i think you're out of your mind those are the risks that i think are most threatening that

SPEAKER_38: i think this president does not quite understand and we have to recomprise and recommit to diplomacy and defending ourselves against the most important literal risks including nuclear weapons that can be carried in a backpack and detonated in new york or tel aviv or anywhere in the world and if we don't start changing how we do things we're not going to be ready and we are just sitting still in dysfunction okay

SPEAKER_70: i'm going to change it let's talk about china for one second and i'll i'll give it to you in two arcs arc number one the comments that president g made yesterday which were very if you just heard them or read them were very specific we have zero desire to seek chinese hegemony we have zero desire to find a cold or hot war which was but then there is what wasn't said which is part of what you said which is well okay maybe there's no kinetic war but the cyber risk is still there and actually the psychological war risk is there so two questions one is how do you react to what president g said last night and then the second is how do you react to what's happening with this tick tock osama bin laden psyop thing that just seems to be frankly just getting out of control here i agree well let me say i was

SPEAKER_00: so pleased to see president xi's remarks um i think president biden responded by saying we should trust but verify i think that's appropriate i was troubled though when a question was shouted out to president biden on his way out about whether he considered president xi a dictator and he said yes he's a dictator and i think that may have undermined this entire um rapprochement which i think is is terribly important you know words matter uh the playbook matters and the negligence or ignorance of another culture as it digests our words our actions our intentions is very consequential and unfortunately we see this pattern with the president of doing what he did today uh in using that term whether or not it's really true or not there are ways as we all know to simply not comment because that is going to undermine i think a very important otherwise very promising outcome and you know to your to your to your question i'm concerned that we have made china perhaps into the very enemy that ostensibly now our military

SPEAKER_38: industrial complex wants to defend us from which happens time and time and time again through our

SPEAKER_00: history and it concerns me deeply we should be partnering with china uh our disagreements are real i think they should be litigated uh and bridged with diplomacy and not destruction uh and imagine what can be accomplished in this 21st century world if two nations like ours uh recognize the potential of spending less on destruction uh and more uh on human beings you know it astounds me do you think

SPEAKER_120: tick tock itself is a threat to the united states and would you if you're a president ban it or force

SPEAKER_121: them to divest and remove the servers in china and the algorithm from china etc i'll make this really

SPEAKER_69: actually being used for psyops i'll make this really simple you know if we want to change our constitution

SPEAKER_00: and change what we consider speech uh change how the federal government or any uh domestic government affects people's rights to what they watch what they read what they eat how they pray how they think where they go with whom they congregate you know what that's up to americans but i think to target one

SPEAKER_38: app is a huge mistake and my i have a very simple solution hold every single platform to the same standard uh transparency uh via their algorithm uh have an independent commission perhaps that is

SPEAKER_00: charged and responsible with assessing um and and holding those platforms to account and if any of them

SPEAKER_125: violate the terms that we pass into law then they should be banned but to target one i think it's

SPEAKER_127: not sensible foreign ownership rules for media outlets yeah so many more users and is much more

SPEAKER_17: powerful with the algorithm so then how would you respond to that sort of counter argument i'm just

SPEAKER_38: going to say this if we want to change our constitution this is what the supreme court i'm afraid

SPEAKER_00: is going to say if we start doing this then change the constitution that's what they said by the way about uh women's reproductive rights you know in the absence of congress doing anything in the absence of that we're going to assess it the way it reads right now i don't think that's necessarily really possible without a significant supreme court challenge my belief is yes is it a threat yes it's a threat by the way every social media platform is a threat when used by malign actors you know

SPEAKER_123: do you think we should force reciprocity if they if we allow tick tock they allow twitter facebook

SPEAKER_00: instagram that's that's the kind of thinking jason i like in fact reciprocity as it relates to ip enforcement of ip uh of theft uh of trade this is that's you just hit the nail on the head reciprocity you know let's let's let's be reciprocal in the nature of a relationship if you're going to ban our

SPEAKER_38: apps and our platforms or our products or our brands well why this is to me an opportunity for

SPEAKER_00: the next generation to say this is nonsensical you know if you're going to succeed by the way china you all know has significant they have a they have a bubble they're facing that will make ours in 2008 uh look like a a gumball by comparison uh and that is coming down the pipe i think that has a lot to do with this kind of step towards rapprochement but yes reciprocity and to know that facebook is not allowed uh yeah perfect example but in the united states that doesn't change my contention that we

SPEAKER_38: should set the same standard for every platform every every media entity whatever it might be

SPEAKER_125: hold them accountable and if they don't qualify or perform then they're banned give us your just

SPEAKER_70: maybe societal then commentary on the number of people on tick tock right now that's sickening advocating

SPEAKER_61: for well i don't even know what you want to call it i guess reading and sympathizing yeah with

SPEAKER_38: osama bin laden's it's just justification i'm sure you guys do too i i look at tick tock i consume as much media as many platforms as possible so i understand why some of the nonsensical perspectives are being

SPEAKER_00: shared with me by so many people right now so i get it you're fun but back to the fundamental question

SPEAKER_38: what do we do and this has been by the way an age-old issue since our very founding it used to be anonymous pamphlets that would spread misinformation or condemnation and and fire people

SPEAKER_00: up now it's just instantly available it doesn't matter if you have a printer you can push a button and yes am i concerned of course i am i'm the fact that when i'm spending time on college campuses right now

SPEAKER_38: and listening uh to otherwise really well-educated privileged kids saying things that are so non-sensible so ignorant and so shocking i know where it's coming from so i understand the problem just like all of you i think this question is what do you do about it and all i'm saying is we should have the same standard for every platform because the same issue is on every platform that is my

SPEAKER_70: what do you think about you you're about to say this but what do you think about what nikki haley

SPEAKER_38: suggested you know i i was shocked that people um maybe just frame for the for the listeners who

SPEAKER_00: don't know what she said so nikki haley and i tell i asked mark zuckerberg this one so too i'll tell nikki haley proposed uh that every platform every social media platform have verified accounts no more anonymous accounts and she got ripped got ripped you know i i understand this is this is it's a reasonable argument to have but i got to tell you i'm surprised that that's something that seems somewhat reasonable to people who are paying attention would have such a uh such a response that she actually retracted it i'm not proposing it i'm just saying that i think we should be throwing ideas on the table and i know from experience just like you guys when you hide behind a fake name you can be not just a jerk to someone you can be downright dangerous when your name's attached to it you behave in a very different manner not mentioned when you're face to face so i don't think that was as absurd as people considered it i asked mark zuckerberg after a financial services hearing a couple years ago you know why why doesn't facebook just verify accounts make this so much easier to hold people accountable and have higher standards of accountability and he

SPEAKER_17: said it would be a competitive disadvantage and of course it is if he only had to do it yeah and this has been tested korea had their version of this in order to sign up in korea for their social networks or isps you had to use your social security numbers sure that makes sense and the

SPEAKER_00: other thing guys is you know that you know if you write a letter to the editor of most major newspapers you have to you have to attach your name to it it has to be verified it's this i i just think it's a conversation that we should be having and by the way you know it might be time to read future shock

SPEAKER_38: again by alvin toffler who predicted so much of this mess in which we find ourselves the incapacity of

SPEAKER_00: human beings to adapt to such rapid technological change which by the way you know you on this you just the handful of you on this um on this podcast have more expertise than the entire united states

SPEAKER_38: senate and congress combined as it relates to the issues we're talking about on tech there is no capacity no competency so on whom do we rely the very lobbyists being paid by the very enterprises that so easily can set the standards right there aren't people of better capacity and only 11

SPEAKER_00: members of congress have an engineering degree only 11 by the way i was i was on uh kevin mccarthy invited me to join his ai cabinet uh which just it was a few four democrats about four republicans we had our first meeting and started making plans right before he was deposed and now i don't know anything

SPEAKER_70: if anything's going on in that respect where do you stand on the spectrum of decorum online on one end and free speech on the other where the absolutist would say absolutely not verified accounts as a

SPEAKER_61: non-starter because it just fundamentally undermines the first amendment and this other thing which is

SPEAKER_00: more organized decorum uh chamath it's it i think that's the issue of our day may be the most important when it's true both online it's also true in our congress right now where's that intersection between debate uh uh discord and um and comprehensive division um you know i i don't have the good answer for it right now is the truth and i'm i'm afraid that if you interpret our constitution um you know free speech has to be met with more free speech but i'll tell you that but that also will conflict and increasingly is uh with the right to pursue happiness i mean that's just true i mean it's a uh it's a it's a it's the most complicated issue in our era would i like to see our kids safer our mental health and emotional health improve and the division reduced and misinformation and

SPEAKER_38: disinformation uh rectified of course because i do would you put a minimum age on use of social

SPEAKER_123: networks you have kids would you make it 15 16 years old i think it would be healthier look we have

SPEAKER_00: minimum age for alcohol that's you know that's older than you have to be to fight in a war for god's sakes it's ridiculous you know we have cannabis cannabis is still banned at the federal the hypocrisy of the federal government is also what i'm running against right now so jason i think that is a good idea you know this and i've had daughters that grew up in the social media era it is one of the most destructive it is far it is as destructive as i think drug consumption to adolescent health as anything

SPEAKER_38: else so to answer your question i think that's a perfectly legal be perfectly reasonable and you can't

SPEAKER_00: just entrust parents to do it because johnny's parents will allow him to have the phone and the apps you know and jill's won't and he can't there has to be just i think there has to be we do that

SPEAKER_38: for a lot of other things and i think we should talk about at what age any of this is reasonable but absolutely i think that's not unreasonable i want kids to be safe just like you guys and so

SPEAKER_83: does it sounds like driving a car is a good match for 15 16 17 years old yeah we should also

SPEAKER_00: allow kids to learn how to drink before they learn how to drive we're the only country that does it like this you know drive for five years until you legally can drink so when you have your first drink you don't even know what it's going to do to you you know it's absurd free burn um i know we're going

SPEAKER_14: to talk about spending in a second but just before we get away from foreign policy i think it's important that we ask what would be your goals with respect to conflict in the middle east what's the strategy you'd employ to achieve those goals and who are the people that you'd surround yourself with

SPEAKER_00: well i'll tell you my strategy is quite simple it's peace around the world and it's prosperity at home uh plain and simple and and i can build i can put the legs of that stool together for you as quickly as i possibly can but let's talk about the middle east you know i'm 54 years old president biden has been in the u.s senate or in the white house for 50 years none of us on this podcast have lived through anything but bloodshed uh reciprocal misery between palestinians and israelis this cycle has continued for decades i've had enough i cannot stand the sight of of babies being pulled from the the wombs of mothers by hamas and israel any more than i can watch babies being destroyed by bombs and missiles in gaza and it's got to stop uh i am about to issue a statement to that end that says essentially

SPEAKER_38: hamas must release all of its hostages period of which there are nine americans guys

SPEAKER_00: nine americans are being held in gaza by a terrorist organization and as president i would be making that my not my daily uh desire or request my daily demand all hands on deck these hostages must be

SPEAKER_123: released immediately would you send in special forces to collect them i would absolutely it is

SPEAKER_38: the it is incumbent on the president of the united states to extract americans being held against their will by any foreign entity i don't know gotta ask him but good luck asking him because he doesn't do

SPEAKER_14: any press conferences the goal for peace is is reasonable but but these like maybe some specifics

SPEAKER_38: around your your strategy so let me yeah okay so first at the at the moment the hostages are safely released there should be a ceasefire period and at that very moment there should be a multinational

SPEAKER_00: peacekeeping force sent into gaza to maintain security immediately when i say multinational the very nations that are connected to gaza arab nations have to be part of it not the united states not israel of course but a significant force there to keep the peace immediately concurrently a multinational coalition designed to eliminate hamas by every nation in the world that wants them eliminated which frankly is most and then we have got to invest again nations of the world investing in a democratic civil society infrastructure education facilities and security so that a new generation of palestinian leaders can create a circumstance whereby another nation can be created period and it's not going to happen with israel and palestinians trying to do this it has got to be imposed it has got to be a coalition of the willing and then only then and only then will we see the conditions for hopefully

SPEAKER_38: elections for palestinians for the first time since 2006 17 years and concurrently it is time for israelis to call an election to replace benjamin netanyahu because he is absolutely part of israel's security problem i've looked him in the eye i told him before this happened earlier this year i've been with him twice looked him in the eye i said what you are doing is affecting the relationship with the united states and israel and will absolutely affect security moving forward i had no idea what would be coming on october 7th but the settlement policy the right-wing government the distraction that the judicial

SPEAKER_00: reform initiative has created in that country is made the conditions ripe and by the way having been in riyadh recently too you know it was really getting close the saudis and israelis normalizing and that was exactly why i i believe whether it's implicit or explicit iran inspired hamas to do this

SPEAKER_38: then and by the way in the united states mark my words there are our adversaries are watching the dysfunction and distraction right now with the same open eyes and we have borders that are awfully easily to get in and that's the truth and i'm a democrat saying that i would do this entirely differently can

SPEAKER_153: you actually talk about the border tell us what would you do there once again i've got a lot of

SPEAKER_00: colleagues who make their decisions by reading an article seeing a tweet or seeing a tick tock uh i go you know i've been to israel in the middle east twice just in the last number of months i've been to the southern border twice i've seen with my own eyes it is the most despicable embarrassing failure of

SPEAKER_38: american policy i have ever seen i have seen women walking across the rio grande with babies in their arms who have spent six or seven thousand dollars their whole life savings paid to gangs and coyotes to

SPEAKER_00: bring them across the border i've seen the extraordinary beauty and grace with which border patrol agents have looked after these people i've seen babies who were abandoned that were on 24-hour care of border patrol agents who took as good a care of these little kids as as they would their own i saw people in cages i saw the most archaic out-of-date inefficient ineffective ports of entry i saw lines of of of trailer trucks probably two three miles long idling in the hot hot weather waiting to get across i saw a mile long of human beings waiting to come into the country to do their shopping or their job or their education and it was horrifying and if we think by the way we need much better border security barriers technologies and facilities and by the way we also need it at the northern border i'm a border state in minnesota people walk across farm fields in manitoba into minnesota we don't know who they are some of them get caught that's true but i'll tell you guys if we think that we can solve the problem at

SPEAKER_38: the border that's the issue right there this administration and past ones just don't get it

SPEAKER_00: we should be adjudicating asylum cases in countries of origin why make these poor people take their life savings that they have no then they have no money they're set off in the streets here they're supposed to come back to a court uh two years from now let them keep their money let's build dormitories

SPEAKER_38: next to our consulates or our embassies in the northern triangle countries wherever migrants are coming

SPEAKER_00: create some safety security there invest in local economies so that there can be some opportunity and adjudicate their cases there if they qualify let's bring them to america with

SPEAKER_38: should we six or seven thousand dollars in their pocket so they can start a nice new life and pursue the american dream and if they don't they will be kept in their countries of origin and of course we

SPEAKER_00: have to work with mexico as well but this is not rocket science it's simple problem solving and the fact that we continue to do this stupid policy to this day you guys is on the other side of this

SPEAKER_17: talk about recruiting many countries canada new zealand a lot of the nordics have a point-based system and they actively recruit talent you're an entrepreneur you've been ceo of multiple companies it is an absolute arduous pain to get talented people here right now recruitment of talent in the united states is bundled with the southern border how would you decouple that would you be in favor of a point-based system and recruitment of talent to get more talented immigrants in our country which by the way three of the four besties here we're not born in the united

SPEAKER_38: states and which isn't and by the way my four mothers and forefathers came here for the same

SPEAKER_00: reasons same reasons that every one of those moms and dads is coming across the rio grande so i to answer your question directly jason i think i think we can do both i think we should have a merit-based system to attract the best and brightest most talented i'm sure all of you had came from enterprises that would afford benefits perhaps education to people you would expect them to actually stay at your enterprise for a number of years to kind of as payback we are right now the

SPEAKER_38: united states is training some of the best and brightest in the world not creating opportunities to stay and of course canada is the beneficiary the nordic countries european countries you guys know

SPEAKER_00: this this notion that we can't do two things at once that we can't welcome uh the most disadvantage who simply want to pursue an american dream and start at the very bottom and match that with some of the best and brightest who can actually start at the very top my goodness why why does everything have

SPEAKER_149: to be binary you guys black and white good or bad yes or no it's nonsense before we run out of time

SPEAKER_160: that's way too short no for you i think we got a little over time i got more hey i got time guys

SPEAKER_121: oh okay great we really want to talk time yeah freeberg and i are uh i i think freeberg you know moved me to his position on this number one issue for this election freeberg correct me if i'm wrong for you is still our out of control spending freeberg maybe you could tee this up yeah i mean i i've said

SPEAKER_167: this in the past i think the us is facing a fiscal emergency in the sense that arithmetic starts to

SPEAKER_14: play out that the cost of debt spirals we can't accomplish any of the other stuff we're talking about unless we can figure this out we have 33 trillion dollars of debt today the treasury estimates it's going to grow to 47 trillion by 2033 just 10 years away one and a half trillion in deficit this year trillion in debt interest expense alone this year and a third of our debt is coming up to be refinanced soon it's going to get refinanced at four and a half percent interest rate instead of two two and a half percent sitting at today so the interest it will swell the deficit will swell the debt will swell and we're already taxing 18 of gdp as federal revenue which a lot of economists have shown you can only get to 20 at which point economy starts to shrink there's i think pretty good research on this some would argue differently but i think that's kind of a natural limit so

SPEAKER_41: the only kind of response is what's wrong with spending like why why do we have the spending problem i guess the question for you is what is causing structurally the spending problem a lot of people have said that this is late stage empire the failure of democracy because everyone votes themselves

SPEAKER_14: all the money eventually or is it a politically oriented problem where folks don't want to address the

SPEAKER_101: biggest line items they don't want to hold programs to account and what is the answer here so to answer

SPEAKER_38: your question directly the you ask what the cause is it's incompetency and perverse incentives period there is no political there used to be a political reward for conservatives who were focused on fiscal responsibility because they would win elections over tax and spenders but that party is long gone long gone there's no reward that's why trump added seven trillion dollars to the deficit and that's why

SPEAKER_00: biden will probably end you know add about that much as well so uh by the way i think i'm one of the only democrats who has both has been named by the committee for a responsible federal budget uh one of their fiscal heroes as a democrat and also um i'm a hamilton hamilton i'm sorry hamilton jefferson award winner by the u.s chamber of commerce and i'm also pro-worker i this notion that you can't be by the

SPEAKER_38: way pro-business and pro-worker that they're somehow mutually exclusive uh that's bs they're they're mutually mandatory but back to your question 33 trillion in debt by the way our economy can accommodate more that's the sad truth the issue is our debt service and nobody's talking about the fact that it is going to go from the mid 400 billion a year to to your point dave with the higher

SPEAKER_167: interest rates probably approaching a trillion maybe 840 it's already over a trillion one today it's

SPEAKER_00: going to be a trillion well yeah you know i don't know i i yeah i would argue that maybe i i we could have a little argument about if it's there quite yet but none either way let's call it let's call it a trillion that means literally that means literally we are spending way more for the past than we are investing in the future that means we have literally no dollars left for any discretionary

SPEAKER_38: spending every bit of it is now consumed by social security medicare and our military and and we're

SPEAKER_00: and on top of that we've got people sleeping in on the streets in every single town and city in america we have kids going to school hungry we have one of the most to me failing public school systems in the

SPEAKER_38: entire developed world we have a health care system that is not health care it's sick care a fee-for-service model that should be capitated and and our outcomes are mid-pack yeah and we have a two trillion dollar deficit and by the way no child care no pre-k education mike i can go on down the list

SPEAKER_00: it's nonsensical and we're spending two trillion more so to answer your question you you guys know the answer here yeah we're a country with i think 150 some million trillion dollars 150 some trillion

SPEAKER_38: dollars in total united states household wealth where do you cut let's start let's start by getting

SPEAKER_61: into those specifics do you cut entitlements do you cut military where do you cut and how do you cut so

SPEAKER_00: here's what i would do starting with social security it social security you guys is the most successful anti-poverty program in world history and i believe it would be not just a dereliction of duty it would be counter to every american principle if senior citizens struggled by the way we don't have a culture in america that takes care of the elders like in most asian cultures and other wonderful cultures in the world so absent that we have to afford resources so two things as you all know social security the trust fund will face probably reductions in 25 at about 25 cut levels by 2033 based on the current path two eight two easy things we can do 160 000 a year is the cap right now i think roughly we should make that 250 that means it's a very regressive tax if you're making 160 you're paying a whole lot more of your income than someone making 250 300 000 a year not to mention 3 million or 30 million so we should raise the cap to 250 make sure that fund at least is solvent through probably 2046 2047 and then i would do something different for the first time in american history for all the millions of americans who've done well don't need their social security that wish to become philanthropists i would create a

SPEAKER_38: pool not that goes back to the treasury a pool that would be automatically redistributed to the lowest

SPEAKER_00: five or ten percent of all social security recipients in the entire country and let's say it might be a 500 boost it might be a thousand dollar boost a year for the for the most challenged

SPEAKER_38: uh elderly americans but when 40 percent of americans can't afford a 400 car repair or emergency expense

SPEAKER_59: you know that's your point not for this group but now to your point to your point i think it was the fed or his treasury that published a study i was shocked by the actual number of american millionaires

SPEAKER_61: that exist and it's counter to the narrative because you would right if you if you just read the headlines you think america is an economic despair and it's not true and the wealth creation is actually quite quite pervasive which is a great feature of american capitalism so to your point

SPEAKER_70: totally probably are a lot of people who would be willing to pay it forward to folks that didn't have it if you gave them the choice it's just not possible today so why shouldn't we be a government

SPEAKER_00: that creates so just chamath if i could just say you know one of my one of my perspectives and

SPEAKER_38: intentions is to not necessary by the way we don't have to spend money to expose young people who never get out of their neighborhoods in many cities in this country expose them to possibility you know get them into factories into ad agencies into high tech centers show them rockets and and music makers and

SPEAKER_00: artists we don't we don't need to spend a whole lot more money to simply completely change the path

SPEAKER_38: of young americans lives not to mention old americans lives and that's just a perfect example of a simple solution that costs zero and lets americans actually be americans okay so now now go to

SPEAKER_61: medicare but i think i know what you're going to say because you mentioned it capitation but yeah maybe talk very quickly on that and then military what what do you cut yeah so so quickly on health

SPEAKER_00: care look guys i i represent united health group in my district tens of thousands of minnesotans many of them who live in my district earn very handsome salaries from united they've done some great work in many ways but i have to tell you uh since i've joined congress in my third term now you would be in tears if you had to sit with the people that i've sat with over so many occasions who thought they had coverage whose son got sick or who's you know whose mother broke a leg or

SPEAKER_38: something and they literally have gone bankrupt or take on tens of thousands of dollars in medical debt and they get surprise bills and then they read in the paper that their health insurer reported annual net income of over 20 billion dollars and i don't know how you guys feel but i got to tell you you

SPEAKER_00: know i'm a capitalist i'm also compassionate and i can no longer reconcile that i really can't

SPEAKER_38: there's a reason we're the only nation in the world that does it this way i think it's time the way by the way from roosevelt to truman to richard nixon richard nixon proposed universal health coverage and it was ted kennedy that undermined it if you can imagine that if we don't if conservatives and progressives don't come to the table and talk about how we can deliver a national health insurance program that is portable lets gig economy participants do their thing that people don't have to make choices about where to work just because of the health care i don't know why we wouldn't talk about that and by the way i'm not talking about the provision of care it's really important because fox news and some republicans have tried to say this is a socialized solution uh-uh just the coverage because the money is in the system already between uh three four five six x pharma costs between two x health per capita health costs ten thousand per person compared to any country in the world at five the answer is i think right there in front of us the money's in the system

SPEAKER_00: would not require a tax increase i think we could actually save substantial money i'm working on a proposition right now i would argue that the model is part of the problem fee for service is antithetical to what we need we need a capitated model that gives an incentive to the uh to the providers to totally people out of the hospital at least try at least try so that's the answer on that uh and by the way you know right now medicare as you probably know it cover i think 23 percent

SPEAKER_38: of the mayor of the country or no between medicare and the va which are single-payer systems 25 percent of americans right now are covered by a single-payer system and by the way it works better than the other system medicare recipients are pretty pleased this would also be a huge benefit as a capitalist

SPEAKER_15: running companies i mean how much of your time was spent running your companies dealing with healthcare and the dysfunction of employees staying at companies because they couldn't

SPEAKER_187: awful get healthcare in another company what about military team what would you do that okay

SPEAKER_00: now military and this is where how to answer your question very directly once again nobody can tell you that they can even begin to address our fiscal challenges without looking at that ridiculous number approaching a trillion dollars a year and by the way the pentagon has not passed an audit they would in my administration it would there would be a top-down assessment of every single

SPEAKER_38: program every single base and facility every explanation of why we are in those 80 nations and

SPEAKER_00: whether or not we should be employing 21st century strategies to keep our country safe and i think one of the simplest solutions you guys is we should be entrusting countries more proximate to the problems to manage them doesn't mean we're not a good ally anymore it just doesn't mean that we are in a

SPEAKER_38: position any longer to be the policeman for the entire world when we can barely take damn care of our country itself it's just so damn simple and i'm frustrated by it because as someone who lost his father in a completely obnoxious and unnecessary war a guy that i have on my phone right now digital audio tapes that he used to send back tapes to my mom where he says i've come to the conclusion he loved america he did not like that war but he loved america he said i believe the only reason we're still here is because so many people are making so much money he saw it and the same thing is happening to this day

SPEAKER_00: you guys that trillion dollars that's going somewhere it's going in people's pockets and i believe we can cut that and i'm not going to make a proposition but i believe after a comprehensive

SPEAKER_38: assessment that we can save hundreds of billions of dollars that can either be saved on the bottom line or better yet actually invested in human beings instead of the destruction of them period

SPEAKER_00: would you zero base budget absolutely why chamath i i've had to go back to washington twice to vote on crs continuing resolutions yeah it is the dysfunction is absurd there's not a there may be five people that can read a pnl or a balance sheet in the whole damn congress uh our budgeting system is completely broken and yes as president i would demand a zero base budgeting and and uh in um procedure and like i

SPEAKER_38: said a comprehensive independent assessment of every program and if it is not generating return or if it could be outsourced to the private sector that can deliver it for a better value that's how we should

SPEAKER_00: proceed and by the way it may not be easy it may take time to get done but why we don't try is absurd and to answer your final question if we don't and once foreign investors no longer consider the united states of america the safest place to deploy capital it's too late and i will not certainly under my watch will not let us get there but we've got to recraft and and lastly can i say one more thing quick on that chamath please if the only way that i think we can address the biggest issue in the country which is the growing disparity between those who have wealth and income and those that do not we can we're not a nation that will redistribute i think we've been not just unsuccessful we actually created some of the

SPEAKER_38: problems we now find ourselves in the way to do it is to raise the foundation the same way it was raised for me by a good a stroke of good luck you know i was adopted by a dad who gave me everything and who knows where i would have been if that didn't happen i want to do the same thing for everybody have health care have great education have child care make sure you have a house a place to live if we give

SPEAKER_00: everybody the same thing then we can be a country so let's in self-determination and talk about

SPEAKER_61: education then briefly so if the spectrum is the teachers union on one end of the spectrum and

SPEAKER_70: vivek ramaswamy who would dismantle the department of education at the federal level and just push all the responsibility to the states with the voucher program he talked about it here once where are you and what what's your what's your philosophy on the state of the education i i i would say i'm in the

SPEAKER_00: middle because i think there's some true i think there's some worthiness to both of those perspectives what would i do i would fundamentally reinvent american public education with the best

SPEAKER_38: and the brightest with students with teachers with families with the non-profit sector and the business sector because right now business needs to participate in 21st century education

SPEAKER_00: to advise the teachers and the administrators and the curricula designers what skills they need

SPEAKER_76: they're not even part of the conversation you guys i don't know about you all that well why do you

SPEAKER_61: think that there are certain places progressive liberal bastions if you will that have been the first to dismantle things like stem and ap classes why why is that happening i wish i had a good i wish

SPEAKER_00: i had a good answer for that it's appalling but but i do have a good solution you know i'm sure like you guys you all know this the single most important determinant of a child's success educationally is the quality of their educator every single study says the same thing the united states of america right

SPEAKER_38: now we pay about 81 of the per capita gdp uh to teachers for for compensation the best performing systems in the world and there is a correlation pay 120 130 sometimes 140 140 of their per capita gdp

SPEAKER_00: they make teaching one of the most admired elevated professions in their nation they identify great

SPEAKER_38: teachers when they're still young and i think we should be a nation that does the same thing we're not attracting the best and brightest any longer when teach for america teachers outperform teachers

SPEAKER_00: who have tenure or been at it for 10 20 30 years does that not say the quality matters it's not the school how it looks but anyway i would reinvent and the other thing is this you and i'm sure like you guys i remember a couple teachers that made a huge difference in my life and they're about 50 i could barely remember it all they should all be those two and then furthermore if you think sitting in front of a

SPEAKER_38: blackboard is the way to teach kids in this day and age no you got to get out of the school you got to look at scandinavian countries and asian countries and how experiential learning learning learning from the best most extraordinary educators in the world through screens on occasion but to

SPEAKER_00: experience you know ai is going to fundamentally change employment as we know it we have nobody in

SPEAKER_38: washington that gets it we need an administration in 2024 that does and begins to simply rectify all these problems anticipating the change that's coming this administration is not going to do it and

SPEAKER_00: education should be redesigned can based on the change we know is coming and i don't have all the answers but i know a lot of people out in california and around the country and around the world

SPEAKER_199: who could help us early to regulate ai or is it no no i think i think it should be i think it should

SPEAKER_00: be very you know jason i would say right now it should be very limited and and this is where back to the conversation about um anonymous accounts we do have to set i think some standards and penalties for nefarious use of ai if we don't do that early and set the tone i think it will get out of control so to me that's all we should do right now and let it grow let it expand let large enterprises and small come up with extraordinary ways to save money by the way ai is going to save extraordinary sums of money for the federal government and health care for businesses we can anticipate how employment will change and what jobs will be jobs of the future but if we don't think about that now we're going to do what congress always does get caught off guard have to come in on a midnight ill prepared with a thousand page bill that nobody understands because it was written by a lobbyist that had skin

SPEAKER_201: in the game and does not serve america and that maybe wraps up this whole conversation yeah i'm just

SPEAKER_14: not sure folks really understand in congress what they're doing no it's front like the difference between foundational models and the utilization of those models in an end point are very different regimes to think about regulation and they're not even that that framework isn't even understood not at all we're not even talking about regulating outcomes no or actions we're talking about regulating the infrastructure that could cause various outcomes regulate regulate i'm very i'm very much against where this is all evolved to and i think like some folks kind of want to say hey this is a regulatory capture moment but i want to see someone in congress stand up and demonstrate an understanding first before they can even have the right to articulate yeah you know a framework for regulation

SPEAKER_125: well dave i can tell you what there's one man what don i want to shout out this guy don buyer

SPEAKER_00: is a former u.s ambassador democrat from virginia he must be 70 he went back to college i think johns hopkins and just received or is pursuing his degree in artificial intelligence that's the kind of representative isn't that cool you would never know his name because he's not on you know fox remiss and bc screaming at night but those are the kinds of people that should be celebrated a lot of my republican colleagues that got thrown out of congress because they had the audacity to support the constitution uh when trump was um impeached the second time you know those people i celebrate can i got to run but can i tell one quick story to wrap my whole story up and about what i want to try to do you know at the at the end of the day none of this occurs none of the successes uh none of the policy ideas none of the ideation occurs if we don't repair uh and that means uh restoring friendships our families our communities in our country uh so i do a series back home in minnesota called common ground i get six democrats and six republicans invited to a table we break bread we introduce ourselves tell a little bit of our life stories we talk about health care policy and we talk about immigration policy which is where everything i share tonight comes from both democrats and republicans and it's a two-hour session facilitated by an extraordinary group called braver angels i encourage you to look them up they are remarkable uh doing this work all around the country and at the end of these sessions we go around the table and each person at the table shares a little bit about what they got out of this experience and i had an episode not long ago that sums up my whole mission uh a young woman emily looks across the table at dave and says dave when you drove up in your f-150 with the trump sticker on it i almost got back in my car left the parking lot and drove away i could not bear to go in the building let alone sit at a table with you and she said but i gotta say i so loved sitting here and you're a good guy and i i'm i learned something goes around the table comes to dave and he looks at emily and says emily when you drove up in your prius i wanted to run it over and he says and he says but hey i gotta tell you emily i've never met a progressive as cool as you and i really am glad i came to this today and at that moment emily and dave stood up in front of our table and they embraced and to see a bleeding heart liberal and a dyed in the wool trumper do that probably was the most important moment in my entire career in service if that is the only moment of its kind in my career in service it would have made it worthwhile and that is exactly what i'm going to inspire as president of the united states get emily and dave to hug it out all they have to do is be invited for a little dinner give them some space and place to recognize their common cause and their common ground and that's how we're going to do this i don't see a candidate right now in the ballot that

SPEAKER_69: has that intention has that capacity or has that capability so i just want to thank you guys and

SPEAKER_61: last thing and just just yes or no can everybody expect that you will be on the ballot in every state

SPEAKER_00: i can't say i'm going to be in the ballot in every state chamath because i don't think it's possible between time and money uh i'm going to have to make some choices and that's just the sickening truth

SPEAKER_38: i will i want to salute bernie sanders he actually made it possible for a candidate like me and probably

SPEAKER_00: future candidates who are subject to this nauseating system to actually still compete and get to the convention and maybe win because he depowered people like me members of congress that used to have

SPEAKER_38: outsized votes uh disproportionately so versus voters and i celebrate him because he was right i used to

SPEAKER_00: think he was a sore loser bernie sanders was absolutely right about a rigged system that is

SPEAKER_38: keeping people out of the process keeping candidates out of the process and keeping debate out of the

SPEAKER_00: process so i'm going to be in the most i'm going to be on most ballots uh i've got to raise money and frankly i i hate to be shameless but the truth is if we want to get on ballots i need support and it's easy dean24.com uh you know i by the way i'm at 15 in new hampshire after just two weeks we thought it

SPEAKER_38: would take six if we were lucky wow so people can throw 15 bucks our way to get on ballots at dean24.com and by the way joe biden 27 73 of new hampshire democratic voters do not want the sitting president

SPEAKER_00: of the united states as their nominee and mark my words we're going to bring change thank you guys all

SPEAKER_210: right thank you so much thanks thank you thank you very much keep the faith guys i mean love to see

SPEAKER_121: you again see you later yeah a great 90 minutes with dean phillips everybody go to dean24.com if you

SPEAKER_217: want to learn more all right besties i think that was another epic discussion with the presidential

SPEAKER_157: candidate what's your thoughts you set up this interview where does he stand in your likely votes

SPEAKER_187: for president in 2024 where would you rank him now andrew yang texted me like last week and said would

SPEAKER_70: you guys do this and i was really interested because mostly i didn't know where he was coming from to be totally honest but i think his national visibility is probably going to increase a lot my reaction is that he is who he says he is which is like kind of down the middle he doesn't take either extreme and he kind of takes a moderate point of view and says there's a balance of this and that that can work and that's actually good that he owns that as opposed to it being sort of a consequence or a byproduct of not getting what he wants he kind of like that is where he starts so i like that about him a lot i thought he was really candid about what doesn't work i really appreciate that honesty he's saying some of the right things around capping medicare zero based budgeting the military i think all of those things right i didn't like to be honest the free speech part i thought that that was i don't think you can have some kind of registry of verified accounts or something i just think

SPEAKER_220: that's a non-starter for america it's a super slippery slope but in general i was really impressed and his uh war stories as a business man were pretty cool pretty awesome sacks what's your candid thoughts

SPEAKER_217: and obviously he's not part of your political party but what do you think his chances are versus biden and

SPEAKER_224: and how would you uh assess his performance here today i was pleasantly surprised that he made the

SPEAKER_85: case for himself not just based on biden's age and the fact that he's 54 but he also i think took a number of interesting policy stances that were a little different than where biden is he did it on

David Sacks: foreign policy did on domestic policy so i think he took a number of positions that were refreshing and a big one i think relates to his personal story where he talks about how he lost his father in vietnam and that that war was kept going much longer than it should have been because basically the greed of the military industrial complex and he didn't fully connect the dots all the way to our present situation in ukraine but at least i think he would be skeptical of the influence of the mic in our politics what he said with respect to ukraine is we said that it would be shameful to abandon them now but he also said that if it's true he wasn't willing to concede it because he just didn't know factually but if it's true that we could have avoided the war by taking nato expansion off the table then it would only be common sense to do that i think that when the histories of this are written it's going to be abundantly clear that we could have done precisely that so his difference of opinion with me isn't in the logic it's just in what and what facts he knows to be true so i actually thought that his position there was reasonable you know if it came down to a choice between dean phillips as the democratic nominee and someone like nikki haley as republican nominee i'd vote for dean phillips all day long you know one other thing i like about him is he is a business owner and he presents as a bill clinton democrat i mean i think it's not an accident he's got a picture of bill clinton on the wall behind him you know he presents as a that was exactly my takeaway too i thought wow this is this is a moderate democrat who's a little bit of a throwback to the democratic party of the of the 1990s if rfk jr is trying to bring back the democratic party of say the 1960s the party of john f kennedy and bobby kennedy his father i think that dean phillips is more trying to bring back the democratic party the 1990s yeah both of them i think are ultimately very out of step with where the democratic party is today but they're out of step with it in ways that i like so he is a candidate who i could support against a republican who if we ended up getting a sort of stale neocon type republican candidate i would take a dean phillips all day long really wow great uh freeberg your

SPEAKER_14: thoughts i mean i i think if joe biden runs he obviously doesn't stand a chance just based on the structural issues that he described if joe biden doesn't run and drops out i think there are probably a lot of other democratic candidates who are going to have deeper pockets and more support from the party and more celebrity or what have you to get themselves elected with respect to his candidacy and whether it's a realistic kind of campaign i would probably argue no but what i really like is the fact that he is making the case i think in a stronger way than even rfk jr was on how these incumbents and how the incumbency in the party system prevents uh new candidates from actually participating in a true democratic process and it feels to me a lot like what goes on in that sense is the equivalent of like regulatory capture but in politics it allows these party leaders and influencers which is a very small group of people to decide who gets to go on a ballot in a state to decide who gets to be the nominee who decides who gets to run for president the best thing that he's doing is exposing a system that bernie sanders calls rigged and that clearly i think is very inequitable and doesn't create a true kind of democratic process so it's really great to see him doing this work and telling the story and i'm glad we gave him the forum to do that for just that reason

SPEAKER_116: and if you were to have a choice of him or biden you'd pick him yeah if you had a choice of him or vivek on the other side would you pick no comment no comment okay taking off my moderator hat for a

SPEAKER_217: minute loved his business story so i agree with you chema really excited to see somebody under the

SPEAKER_17: age of 80 run for president and i thought there were really two powerful moments there when he said he would send special forces in and then he was pretty aggressive in his assessment of netanyahu's

SPEAKER_217: leadership and overall he did engage with every single issue and had interesting policy issues no it seemed pretty uh pretty engaging there so overall great job everybody i think four for four on the

SPEAKER_17: presidential candidates and just as a programming note we have sent the first podcasting kits the first microphones to four presidential candidates for those of you counting at home what do you think

SPEAKER_217: will happen post this chamath vivek got a big bump rfk got a big bump what do you think is going to

SPEAKER_220: happen post i think i think that dean phillips is going to pull really well the more that people get

SPEAKER_70: to see him and i think new hampshire is set up well for grassroots politics like this it will it will go over very well the question i think freeberg points is the is the key one which is the party infrastructure has tremendous antibodies and if they decide to shut you out which they did very strongly and vocally for rfk you don't have much of a choice except to run as an independent so his candidacy is precarious not because of the viability of him as a candidate actually because

SPEAKER_61: i think it's quite high or his likability which is quite high or his electability as sac said which against the right person is very hot this has all to do with the antibodies of the infrastructure

SPEAKER_80: just a quick uh programming note jacal are you drinking a chocolate milk

SPEAKER_217: i am drinking a core power 26 26 grams of protein i'm still on my trying to eat more protein but i did have a super gut bar earlier today which was quite nice i thought there was a chocolate milk

SPEAKER_244: this one's got 26 grams it's a 42 gram protein yeah i don't want to give a free ad to core power but

SPEAKER_217: sax in addition to the antibodies that you know kicked rfk out of the democratic party the press

SPEAKER_17: also blocked him cnn etc wouldn't let him on the right would let him on all day long does this

SPEAKER_121: same antibody kind of system exist on the right at all or is the right more open to multiple

SPEAKER_85: candidates just generally speaking no i mean you look at republican debates and they are vigorous debates there is real disagreement on the right there are real debates on the right and there's a real working out of contested issues the democratic party by and large is a machine it works in lockstep that's why what dean phillips is doing is so sacrilegious i mean he is pretty much ending his

David Sacks: career as someone who can just move up through the ranks that are the democratic party maybe this will turn out in a way where it gives him like a leapfrog but i don't think so i mean i think he's basically signaling to the higher-ups in the democratic party that he's no longer a candidate for advancement through the regular course got it and one analogy is that the democratic party is like the empire and the republicans are like the rebel alliance you know the republican party is a bunch of misfits

SPEAKER_253: um it's a bunch of discontents he walks and solos and solos or whatever but the the democratic party

SPEAKER_127: mark marches is that why the democratic party wins more is because they're in lockstep yeah they're much

David Sacks: better fundraisers they're more disciplined they have their act together right now i don't think this

SPEAKER_17: was always the case but i think it's true right now yeah okay uh well we had a couple of other

SPEAKER_217: issues we wanted to get to so i think we can wrap there great job everybody that was spectacular great

SPEAKER_17: job getting the candidate chamath thank you for that all right we have to touch on what happened this week with the us and china relations everybody knows xi jinping was here in the bay area to meet

SPEAKER_217: with biden yelling welcome she uh at the plane maybe she's selling some treasuries i don't know and that's

SPEAKER_262: what the press said yeah i mean like we're like some sort of uh piss poor company that's selling

SPEAKER_265: us junk bonds i mean the second that she gets off the plane she's hawking our shitty bonds

SPEAKER_236: wow listen everybody's raising a fund right now you know fundraising's hard did you guys hear the commentary that the treasury auction had a really tough tough moment last week they had a big auction on

SPEAKER_14: what was it 10 and 30 year bonds the 30 year bond bid was not really there and so they're they got to get buyers in the market they got to go get and she's coming to raise money apparently too she she's

SPEAKER_268: here everybody's having a hard time raising right now pretty pretty crazy uh but uh chamath you and i

SPEAKER_17: tweeted about this uh clip where xi jinping said that you know he's basically for peace and that we have to work together let me just start there with you chamath so we can get through this quickly do you take him at his word there were cynical people saying like hey you know he's just desperate needs more trade needs more business how do you interpret she's peace pipe here you know and

SPEAKER_70: his dinner with a bunch of executives last night i think he's pragmatic he's somebody that wants to not just rule over china but he wants to do it for the rest of his life and he wants to do a good job and i've said this many times china's issues are endemic and pervasive and their demographic and so he has huge structural issues that he has to fix in the chinese economy

SPEAKER_220: and so i think all of this is just about him focusing on his priorities which makes sense which is really about domestic policy there's an enormous real estate issue that has to get sorted out there is a gdp issue that has to get sorted out there's a youth unemployment issue that has to get sorted out and then there's an aging and a birth rate and replacement issue that has to get sorted out

SPEAKER_70: all of these things are in enormous efforts and so i think he's pragmatic enough to not also then add foreign misadventures to that plate and i think what you heard was him being very clear

SPEAKER_17: about just exactly that sax what was your interpretation there's so many jumping off points here you got foreign policy you got tick tock fentanyl i mean there's a long list of issues but

SPEAKER_217: does it feel like we're turning a corner on relations hey they need us we need them but what

SPEAKER_224: was your interpretation of all this well i think what's going on here is that the administration has its hands full with two wars if we still got still got this war in europe over ukraine which

SPEAKER_85: is going very badly and now we have a new war in the middle east that caught them

David Sacks: completely by surprise uh recall that literally a week or two before october 7th you had jake sullivan saying the middle east has never been more peaceful so they absolutely did not anticipate what was coming and now we have half of our carrier groups in the middle east positioned there in cases you know blows up into a wider regional war so i think the simple fact the matter is is that the biden administration this is more than they can handle or let's put this way they're trying to put the china compete on hold they're trying to put it on ice while they figure out a way to rescue this losing effort in ukraine and to prevent the situation the middle east from spiraling out of control it's just too much for them they don't have the bandwidth to deal with a war or conflict breaking out in the asia pacific so i think that's the the biden administration's motivation here is they're seeking to ease tensions because they're just too bandwidth constrained to deal with it by the same token i think chamath is right that uh she realizes that he's got his hands full with domestic economic problems he doesn't need a ratcheting up of tensions with the united states right now and i would also add that on foreign policy i think what you're seeing in his remarks is a return to the far away from this kind of wolf warrior diplomacy that they had going on a few years ago where they were kind of saying these very bellicose things and they're kind of flexing their muscles in the asia pacific re region that really backfired on them because it raised the hackles of all those other asian countries and it was making it too easy for the united states to form a containment alliance against china so he's moving away from that type of wolf warrior rhetoric that got them nowhere and he's moved back to the rhetoric of a dung shaoping who said that china's policy should be to bide its time and hide its light under a bushel in other words just get stronger and stronger don't let people get wise to how strong you are and then when the time is right you will flex your muscles but just keep you know keep getting stronger and i think he's returned to that that policy and you saw this with the belt and road conference that in beijing just a few weeks ago where you saw countries like vietnam participating and i think that china their strategy is now to try to use some honey to catch some flies as opposed to vinegar using this kind of bellicose rhetoric and saber rattling and

SPEAKER_17: if we look at this chart i think this chart speaks volumes friedberg in foreign investment into china has absolutely fallen off a cliff indeed the decoupling the saber rattling and you know uh and other countries looking to have resiliency and not be dependent on china has obviously blown up in his lap but what are your thoughts on foreign trade and and our business relationship with china and their

SPEAKER_14: relationship with the west and the rest of the world this used to be a thing to do to make money and then it became a question mark of whether you can make money a couple years ago and now as of this year i would argue you are a pariah if you are trying to invest in china or do any business in china it's almost like you can't do business with the enemy that's the tone shift that i think accelerated in the last 24 months and as that tone shift happened in the business community and the investment community um it obviously escalated the tenor of what does the the broader relationship look like that i think catalyzed hey we got to simmer things down because we can't really afford or deal with that escalated escalation right now but i i don't know i mentioned this to you guys i was at a conference this past summer the summer of 22 it was like hey maybe you know when are things going to get bad with china to this summer it's like if you were doing business in china you're trying to pick up pennies in front of a a freight train like you're going to get run over and it happened in one year that was my observation it was like this crazy shift right this yeah and and i could tell from the tone of what everyone is saying on stage it was like universal there wasn't anyone that disagreed and similarly as you guys know we've heard this from both political parties in the u.s it suddenly became the new new thing for democrats and republicans to denounce china denounce investing in china denounce doing business with china but too much too fast i would argue has led to an observation of the consequences it's a deeply coupled economic partner to the united states china is the largest buyer of u.s agricultural exports 200 billion dollars a year of farm products that we make get shipped out to china china china is a major supplier to our electronics industry i mean we don't need to recount all the relationships but trying to decouple too quickly trying to call china the enemy too fast i think has led to a realization that that's not really a tenable so i would argue that maybe this week has been a moment i don't know if it really changes the long-term trajectory but it seems like it's certainly a very important and and critical pause in the escalation one thing i wanted to comment i think one of the biggest winners this week i'd love your point of view on this guys is like

SPEAKER_41: gavin newsom i mean he was all over this week like he was at the plane greeting g he cleaned up san francisco i mean he was he got a shout out from the president he was yeah he was at the dinner i mean do you guys think like gavin is you know gonna be there when joe says i'll see you later i'm not gonna run again and the new year when i spoke yeah what's happening here it's all just a big coincidence he actually went on stage in san francisco made all those comments about the city should be cleaned up and we haven't been doing it we could have the whole time he's very honest about it it's not

SPEAKER_10: quite what he said yeah but i look i mean i don't know what are you guys quasi owning it right sacks

SPEAKER_52: quasi no i don't think he did own it he gave these really weird remarks about how there are some people

David Sacks: who are saying that we're only cleaning up san francisco because there's these fancy people here that was

SPEAKER_253: is such a weird term as well it's true because it's true and it's true but yeah it was like he was headed in one direction and then realized he was making a mistake but couldn't quite yeah let's pull

SPEAKER_291: it up let's pull it up it's good yeah here play it they're just cleaning up this place because all

SPEAKER_293: those fancy leaders are coming into town um that's true because it's true

SPEAKER_52: what he's basically doing there is admitting that he as the governor has the power to snap his fingers and wave his magic wand and clean up the streets of san francisco and that is completely different than what he's been telling us for years for years he's been maintaining that the problem of homelessness in california is owned by local officials or by judges or by somehow by the system itself and it's too complex and it's beyond his power to simply do something about it but he just admitted that in fact he does have the power to do something about it in fact he is the boss of a one party state and all he had to do was snap his fingers and make this homeless problem go away and he's willing to do that for xi jinping he's willing to do that for dream force he's willing to do that for the super bowl but he is not willing to do that for the ordinary citizens of san francisco and i think that ultimately is going to be a huge vulnerability what he should have said here is it's true that we cleaned up the city to uh represent ourselves well for these foreign leaders who are coming in but the truth of it is that we should be doing this every day and here's my agenda for fixing it point one two three and if we could get everyone on board with this agenda we could fix this problem but that's not what he said what he basically communicated was that i can solve this problem anytime but i don't give a about you ordinary citizens we only do this for the fancy people

SPEAKER_70: chamath when uh any any reaction to that yeah he's auditioning i mean i think that much is clear again i would just say it's you can't just go to china and meet with xi jinping so that has to be endorsed it's negotiated it's enabled you go there with talking points you go there in discussion with state and treasury and and the rest of the federal bureaucracy behind you so that was a clear audition of some kind and i think it was obvious that they wanted the apex summit to be the backdrop of a biden g meeting and so you're doubling down on california so i think it's i think it's kind of like a dry run here is what i would say i mean i'm not sure that it's i don't know what for it definitely made him look

David Sacks: presidential and i think you're right that when he went to china a few weeks ago to invite xi to the summit that was clearly sanctioned by it gotta be by blinken by sullivan you can't you can't do that on your own of course of course but again the reason why they sanctioned that is because they really want to ease tensions with china right now given how full their hands are with the middle east right

SPEAKER_61: now and with you no no i'm not i'm not debating that i think that that makes all the sense in the world i think that you could have sent any number of well not any number but one of three cabinet secretaries and it would have been just as appropriate and i think sending the governor i think was a little bit of a it was a test can he perform and i think he did a good job there he

David Sacks: helped himself i mean he he hurt himself with uh it's true because it's true but he helped himself in terms of the optics of can i say can i say it though i i think he did look presidential in china

SPEAKER_61: and i actually that was the first time where i thought gavin was really being a normal person because he actually told the truth he's like yeah this state is a

Chamath Palihapitiya: at its best no but this state at its best is a center of innovation in the future

SPEAKER_61: and at its worst it's where every bad progressive idea goes to die no wait he said that no no i'm saying that i'm saying san francisco embodies both of those two things on one day it's full of people on crystal meth and fentanyl on the second day it's the open ai

SPEAKER_308: dev day yeah within a block of each other so i think and i think he just admitted but but imagine

David Sacks: if he said something like that that would make him so much more real well maybe he's trying to

SPEAKER_41: find his voice i think i think his tone has shifted a bit i don't know that's what i'm saying it felt like in seeing some of the talks he gave this week and his positioning and where he was sitting it was

SPEAKER_61: he looks like i definitely i definitely will say that the gavin newsom of three years ago was a little bit smarmy and more of like a political insider the gavin newsom of like the last week and particularly even just that comment to me david was actually being honest and i think that that's a more viable

SPEAKER_70: path if they decide to give him the candidacy which i think is a really good observation because

SPEAKER_17: he could just come out and say listen we tried a bunch of things we had good intent it didn't work

SPEAKER_157: and now we're reversing them but you know biden did say that he would possibly be running for his job i want to thank governor newsom want to thank him he's been one hell of a governor man matter of fact he could be anything he wants he could have the job i'm looking for that that was i don't know if you guys heard that quote from biden biden said that last night wow so i guess conspiracy let's put our tinfoil tinfoil hat corner time sax your favorite percentage chance biden runs or drops out whichever

SPEAKER_217: way you want to do it anybody have uh some tea leaves i still think there's about a 70 chance that

David Sacks: biden runs okay so 30 percent he's not gonna voluntarily retire he the the party apparatus whoever's you know behind the scenes pulling the strings the wizard of oz is gonna have to go the party elders we have to go to him at a certain point and say sorry this is just not going to work and we're not

SPEAKER_70: there yet okay chamath what do you think i'm curious i think david's right the leaders and the powers that be will not make that call right now i don't think it's i don't think it's time yet freeberg you

SPEAKER_151: got to take i don't know i think it's speculation i really don't know okay hey chamath one uh question

SPEAKER_143: here just on markets hundreds of billions of dollars not being invested in china on that chart foreign investments where does that money go any thoughts on where that's going it's just sitting in accounts you think it's being invested in other geographies we talked about it last week

SPEAKER_70: with jared kushner but if you look at just the the ton of cash and cash equivalents i think it just speaks to how everybody's just a little bit on the sidelines waiting to go waiting for the green light which you know you saw cpi this week by the way i mean we talked about it last week which is that it looked like cpi is turning over and now the consensus forecast is you're going to see cpi with

David Friedberg: a low two percent handle by february or march of this year so you're going to see 2.2 cpi or something

SPEAKER_143: watch out watch out as in hey markets could come roaring back maybe not zerp environment but could get interesting all right listen we don't want to leave without doing a science corner everybody loves science corner i know deep mind has been working on you know many projects freeberg and deep mind of course is google's ai arm they did go they did protein folding and of course they're doing bard but they announced something this week about predicting weather tell us about this paper that was released

SPEAKER_14: freeberg yeah so i think this was pretty exciting you guys know i used to work in weather when i ran climate corp we did a lot of work with weather forecasting and weather modeling so deep mind published a paper in the journal science uh this week introducing graphcast which is actually a publicly available model uh that does weather forecasting using machine learned models it's a 37 million parameter model just to give you a sense how small that is that model compared to uh chat gpt which is like a 1.5 trillion parameters in the chat gpt model this is only 37 million parameters in this model and the performance that they got out of graphcast which they published in the journals they've made the model available you can check it out you can read the paper on how they built the model they're very open about that when the model actually forecasts weather over a 10-day period better than traditional weather forecasting so let me just talk about how weather forecasting is normally done and what they did differently and why this is such a big breakthrough so weather forecasting is usually done by kind of chopping up the atmosphere into little cubes little blocks and you know the weather is a fluid it's like a liquid you know it's air and moisture being moved around with energy and so normal weather forecasting systems are what are called numerical models uh you run physics you run the formulas for physics on each of those little cells of the atmosphere and figure out how they affect the cell next to them and the cell next to them and you run that cycle forward and you run all these calculations and then you figure out how those cells are going to be different in hours and then in days going forward and these numerical models basically because they're compute intensive they're running actual calculations from physics to model all this stuff they require a lot of compute power there are hundreds of variables that are measured and that are output from forecasting models and they're generally run on these very expensive uh compute clusters uh there are two major weather forecasting systems one is run by ecmwf which is the european weather center and the other one is run by noaa called gfs here in the us and ecmwf runs on a million cores across 7700 compute cluster nodes they spent about 200 million dollars on this this uh this compute cluster and the gfs model runs on a 29 petaflop system so 29 quadrillion floating operations per second it costs 270 million dollars and when they run the forecast model using this traditional way of doing things they're running all these physics calculations on these little small blocks of the atmosphere and perturbing it fast forward try and capture as much data out of the model runs as they can and every six hours they run the model and there's a new output every six hours and it costs a billion dollars for noaa to run forecasts every year and disseminate that information and then all the weather companies you know from weather channel and accuweather they're all buying or getting free access to these forecasts that come from these big compute clusters and that's how all weather forecasting is done they're actually done primarily by these big centralized government super compute clusters and then they're made available for everyone to consume and the more data and the more compute you get the better the forecasts the higher the resolution meaning the more local space you can forecast on the smaller the time scales meaning you can go from one day forecast to one hour forecast break it down and the further out you can be accurate whether it's five days and then 10 days and so on so more compute has been the name of the game for many many years in weather forecasting the more compute you get the better the forecasts so this breakthrough that deep mind has had is they basically took all the past weather forecast and they built a model that figured out how to take the current weather and the weather from six hours ago just the data so the data feeds from today's current weather weather six hours ago and trained a model that predicted weather for the next 10 days the same output as you would get from these big expensive numerical models and they did this using what's called a graph neural network that's the architecture for the model a graph neural network is far more complicated than say predicting an image which is two-dimensional it's pixels next to each other or predicting a text stream which is one-dimensional it's what's the next word in a sentence so uh these are a graph neural network it's a fairly complicated model and so they describe all the techniques they used and everything they built in the paper they were really open about it all and then they were able to train this model using past you know forecasting data going back to the 70s and then they ran the model if you pull up these charts so the first chart that we're going to pull up here basically shows the model's performance graph cast against the big ecmwf model and what you'll see is that the model across all time scales going out to 10 days is better and there's a bunch of ways to measure this primarily what's called root mean square error which measures the skill of the forecast so here you can see the black line is the numerical model run by ecmwf which is the big weather forecast model that most people in the world rely on every day and the bottom is the the machine learn model and by the way the entire graph cast model runs in one minute so you basically input current weather data and you input weather data from six hours ago and in a minute you get all the forecasts

SPEAKER_143: forecasts whereas currently we could run on what like a smartphone or a laptop it's not that small

SPEAKER_14: but yeah i mean you could run it on a small compute and um you could get the results in a minute and so basically everyone can now be a weather forecaster what used to be is this is the gap

SPEAKER_220: between the black and the blue line significant is that an important it is significant in two ways

SPEAKER_14: one is first of all it's better which is amazing because researchers have spent billions of dollars and decades trying to make their numerical models better so the fact that a machine learned model is is just simply better is really profound and the second point is that this machine learned model is only 37 million parameters and can be output in a minute so you could be running this thing

SPEAKER_153: continuously and you can do this does this work for weather all around the world or around the

SPEAKER_14: specific exactly all around the world and the second thing that they measured if you pull up the second graph was well okay great you can measure you can do basic weather forecasting but are you good at picking up extreme events the things that are really outside of the normal distribution curve the things that we should worry about like cyclones or extreme heat or atmospheric rivers and the answer again is absolutely yes that this model trained on this data is better at

SPEAKER_17: forecasting extreme weather events on that bottom left one is it saying that hrs doesn't actually predict cyclone tracking and that graph cast gives you like two three four days lead time

SPEAKER_151: that's just an error difference yeah it's just a measure it's a measure of delta

SPEAKER_121: so what's the downstream effectiveness people will be able to get out of an area that could have extreme weather or insurance you did climate.com right so you've been in this business for a long

SPEAKER_323: time yeah so i think one of the most interesting things is how this is going to change how weather

SPEAKER_14: forecasting is done again billions of dollars there's a a big system in japan a big system in europe and a big system in the us that forecasts the weather there's some of the biggest compute clusters in the world and now you can run it in your home you can run this model in your home because all the weather data that is the input to the model is available all the time on the internet for free so we could just take that data and anyone could run it you could get faster results more frequent updates certainly a much lower cost and i think this is just the beginning of obviously a long road of optimization and iteration that will go from here where it'll be really amazing to see what else can be done with this model it totally upends a lot of different business models as well what's really important also to note this is an incredible proof point of these graph neural nets graph neural nets can be applied in other areas like chemistry biology material science anywhere where you're simulating physics or physical properties or three-dimensional space over time showing that you can train off data and be better than physical models that just use physics to make a prediction and you can just have the machine figure out how to do it on its own and it comes up with this prediction that's better than running physics in the in a compute cluster it's really incredible and i think it'll also it's a great way to highlight the opportunity for machine learning models being applied to things like chemistry and biology for discovery purposes and other areas over time i thought it was a great paper another really incredible uh proof point by deep mind i mean are they going to just throw away those clusters

SPEAKER_331: running other weather models now they're just i'm telling you like that's redundant and by the

SPEAKER_14: way talk about accountability so what if i'm running the department of commerce which oversees noah in the us i'm like what are we doing spending a billion dollars a year on this now we can just run

SPEAKER_17: this thing on a macbook so a perfect example of how ai is going to save billions of dollars this is like an incredible point for the government getting more efficient to circle back around to dean's point earlier in the episode okay this has been an amazing episode for the dictator himself

SPEAKER_335: i want a more accurate forecast of the temperature on uranus oh it was coming in at any moment oh man

SPEAKER_217: it depends did you have uh it's cold and dark cold and dark it's cold and dark or maybe you had the hot sauce anybody knows all right listen and for the sultan of science the day after tomorrow beautiful uh it

SPEAKER_15: was great fun movie david friedberg and the rain man david sacks i'm amongst amongst the world's

SPEAKER_157: greatest moderators great job the last two weeks friedberg and this is your favorite podcast the

SPEAKER_187: all-in podcast we'll see you all next time bye-bye bye-bye oh also also also happy thanksgiving everybody happy thanksgiving happy thanksgiving no episode next week no episode when happens you never know

SPEAKER_188: somebody goes rogue you know happy uh happy thanksgiving to everybody gobble gobble

SPEAKER_354: gobble make me thankful for your blessings gobble