SPEAKER_00: brian johnson that's so funny i i uh who knows i am the king of nighttime erections SPEAKER_01: i go to bed thinking about myself and i wake up thinking SPEAKER_17: all right everybody welcome back to the number one podcast in the world man we're starting off with three of the four original band members chamov polyhapitiya he's your chairman dictator SPEAKER_19: the sultan of science david freeberg and of course i'm your host jason calacanis and david SPEAKER_17: sax from the original band will be on the second half of the show we're going to do some of the classics yes we get some of the classics including ukraine ukraine ukraine coming up on the second half of the show in our greatest hits revival tour but with us again sitting in the red throne is the one the only joe lonsdale is back he is if you can imagine further right than keith roboi and sax they tell him to pump the brakes welcome back to the program joe lonsdale how you doing SPEAKER_20: brother hey jason doing great here in texas today ah yes i i see you right over the hill SPEAKER_17: on the ranch our ranches are within 20 minutes of each other joe lonsdale and i are shooting SPEAKER_23: guns at our ranches are you on a ranch joe uh well i bought a bunch of the homes and connected them so it's kind of like a ranch but it's actually a suburb yeah it's more like a compound SPEAKER_27: he has a constant suburb the creaking sounder here are the libs rolling in the guillotines SPEAKER_19: yes he bought the small town he lives in joe lonsdale's here of course he is a venture capitalist the founder of 8vc they've got six billy in aum co-founded palantir open gov and addapar three billion billion dollar plus companies he co-founded and an early investor SPEAKER_32: in andro i'm in the market for secondary shares you know how to reach me folks if you're selling your secondary and angel and building a position for obvious reasons and oculus wish oscar health amongst his other investments hey what was the feedback joe on your first appearance SPEAKER_34: here on the all-in pod people loved it you know you guys gave me no warning so i was SPEAKER_36: like on a mobile phone sideways but it worked out it was great everyone saw it i guess it looks like people actually watch your show jason it was surprising apparently people tune in from time to SPEAKER_35: time and that's why we call it the number one podcast in the world how are you doing chamath SPEAKER_38: palihapitiya how you doing brother i'm doing really well hmm okay once again giving me a ton to work SPEAKER_41: with there and friedberg what would you like to know why don't you ask me a question oh well i ask you SPEAKER_21: how you're doing maybe you say oh i had a great time with my kids i took them to disneyland or i don't SPEAKER_19: know chef made an amazing arugula you used to give me some some color to work with here so nat was in SPEAKER_45: rome all last week great what was she doing in rome she had to go see her factory she also had to go and renew her visa at the u.s embassy there okay so she's renewing her visa hopefully she'll be able SPEAKER_48: to get back in the country i know we've tightened up the borders well she's on an eb2 visa she's already but she should switch to this eb5 as soon as it's announced oh yes you can get the golden visa SPEAKER_51: and i think you already put a down payment on freeberg how was your week what how's everything SPEAKER_53: going at ohalo you're having a productive week as one of my management team members told me today it's a very complex business that's usually not a good sign when the conversation starts with that SPEAKER_56: is that a way of saying everything's no no we we're good i was on the road this week i just got back SPEAKER_19: i mean it's hard running a business is hard you hire the smartest people you know and what happens they bring you all the problems they can't solve so it's it's never easy we've got an incredible docket today let's just start with i'll give you a quick recap boys of the week since we last taped to say the uh zone was flooded in the words of steve bannon would be an understatement here's your trump tsunami for the week thursday when we tape the epstein file dump fiasco you remember that joe right big zero big nothing burger then friday zelensky was dressed down and kicked out of the white house by the vice president president's markets collapsed they rebounded on saturday we got a beautiful day off video of trump dancing down a catwalk to ymca maybe he played some golf he was at the white house south mar-a-lago sunday 9 24 a.m eastern the president pumps three specific crypto solana cardona xrp to be in the first government strategic crypto reserve joe lonsdale starts tweeting i start tweeting everybody's tweeting he quickly retweeted himself included ethereum and bitcoin some decentralized coins reaction was wow crazy you had a little bit of a spicy take joe we'll get into that later and i'm sure our friend david sacks will have much to say in the second half of the program but it was pretty negative cardona ripped 70 percent xrp 32 percent solana 25 and then there was this crazy trade one whale went 50 times long on btc and eth SPEAKER_32: 200 million dollar position on just a four million dollar investment everybody trying to figure out SPEAKER_17: who that was i'll leave it to you to speculate then we start the week monday trump says significant tariffs with canada and mexico the market collapse he walks back tariffs a couple of hours later and the market starts to rebound then at 2 38 p.m trump announces a hundred billion dollar investment from tsmc in american fabs huzzah for that and our boy david sacks gets dragged out to the podium for a SPEAKER_32: quick 15 second cameo very nicely done to our boy david sacks and then tuesday we have the most chaotic SPEAKER_17: state of the union i've ever seen highlights include an angry man shaking a cane and getting kicked out there were some auction paddles from the libs i don't know what they were bidding on there were 13 biden mentions and one pocahontas wednesday we have news that the doge blitz might slow down SPEAKER_32: supreme court chimed in with a 5-4 decision backing the federal judge who ordered the trump admin to pay SPEAKER_17: out 2 billion for usa contractors then there was a closed door meeting with the senate with elon maybe they discussed an approval process maybe some voting type things and then here we are today thursday when we're taping markets down two percent on more tariff news breaking news drops at 11 30 trump announced tariffs are off for mexico markets aren't rebounding we might be leaving nato can i hold on mumbo's there yeah breaking we might be leaving nato breaking we're shutting down the SPEAKER_61: department of education psych we just found out we're not okay gentlemen that's the week that was SPEAKER_65: no there's there's three things that are also kind of interwoven in all of this Chamath Palihapitiya: open ai dropped gpt 45 and i think it was not really that well received i didn't even know nobody's talking about that quen which is the open source alibaba dropped a rev which seems actually really best in class so that was really interesting okay then there was a story that said llama is going sideways facebook's open source yeah and then the markets have just been going i think the craziest i've actually seen in 20 years of following the markets and specifically you're seeing the mag 7 compressed towards the rest of the s p 500 and then you're seeing this insane trade away from europe SPEAKER_19: so there's a ton that happened this week i mean i don't remember a more eventful week joe SPEAKER_34: is this a little too much maybe you guys missed the shalom hamas tweet by trump too which for a lot of us is a big deal he said i don't know if this is hello or goodbye but he's threatening them really strongly so for people who care about that part of the world it's interesting to watch what's going to SPEAKER_47: happen so that also happened yeah oh my lord well and shalom is hello and goodbye right just to clarify as a word you would say both right shut up yeah ambiguous and ambiguous word and peace SPEAKER_19: well maybe he's leaving it into interpretation maybe they get to pick maybe it's hello no that's SPEAKER_32: what he wrote in the tweet oh he did yeah it's your choice okay it's a choose your own adventure hamas SPEAKER_19: from the president united states but i think we should probably get into tariffs this is confounding to most people maybe since i just did the whole rundown i won't go into all the details about tariffs again but just looking at it from first principles joe i asked a couple of group chats you're in one one of them in fact and i have about let's say about 400 people total in these four group chats SPEAKER_89: what's the strategy here what do you think trump is trying to accomplish and man i got a range of SPEAKER_19: answers let me ask you what is trump in your estimation trying to accomplish with the tariffs SPEAKER_90: on the tariffs off the tariff on the tariffs off as shaman said here this is creating more chaos than SPEAKER_92: any of us have ever seen in markets listen trump's negotiating right so i i actually ran into david sachs each senator gets one guest we were both guests in the senate dining hall hanging out with a bunch of these guys multiple of the guests some of them were spouses of the centers multiple of the guests were people who've lost kids to fentanyl right and so it's actually a very serious issue it's a big thing on the populist right as it should be for all americans we've lost you know tens of thousands of young people recently to fentanyl and and canada has done nothing about their border and so you know you just reported breaking news i hadn't even heard yet that mexico might be off can is still on he's using this to negotiate so i talked to the senators and i asked him what's going on because obviously i import things all over the place i'd like to know what the SPEAKER_94: hell the rules are but they want people to actually crack down on this stuff and save american lives and i think it's a reasonable thing to use to negotiate and force them to do that okay so you believe it's SPEAKER_32: negotiation because of the fentanyl issue chamath let me go to you because many people are saying SPEAKER_19: this has more to do with some great reset and maybe the tenure do you think this is about fentanyl at Chamath Palihapitiya: the border or something else i think that this is the first week where i've seen the first real schism in how people are interpreting what's actually happening i think that trump and elon were very SPEAKER_100: much in a honeymoon period until this week and i think there was the benefit of the doubt but what i Chamath Palihapitiya: saw on x was a real divergence where on the one hand there were people that were basically saying doge is deranged elon is crazy trump is lighting the world on fire in one camp and the other camp saying he's sticking to the plan and when i thought about this a little bit if you went back to november the fifth i do think it's important to remember that we were at this moment where you had this fork in the road and you had all these important issues where i think the best way to generalize it was that the democrats believed that the lines should continue to be blurred so whether that was on gender or race or merit versus some other immutable trait or fiscal and monetary policy things were just getting more and more blurred and then trump and elon basically showed up and said actually we want to refocus and we want to make the lines very visible and clear on all those dimensions and a majority of americans voted that in but i think what you're starting to see now is the difficulty in actually implementing that plan and what i mean specifically is tariffs are very nuanced and complicated on the one hand there's these short-term wins there's these impacts you could deem them positive or negative to the dollar there's impacts to us bonds there's impacts to us bond markets there's impacts to how countries deal with foreign reserves and then there's this impact that happens when the markets react to a tariff and then trump takes that off the table and then they snap back so you have this weird set of boundary conditions right now so i think right now we're in the very difficult part of sorting through what the SPEAKER_104: long-term implications are and i can get to some of them later but i think that's where we are i think SPEAKER_98: it's really interesting the goal of tariffs in your mind for trump is fentanyl no finance related no no SPEAKER_104: no it's give me your definitive what you think this is about i think what tariffs allow us to do is Chamath Palihapitiya: rebase the long-term reliance on the u.s dollar it allows us to rebase our ability to fund our own deficits and it allows us to rebase the long-term ability for american companies to be economically vibrant okay SPEAKER_32: so freeberg we got one person with fentanyl the border negotiating we got one person on trade some portion of this i hear and when i asked in these four group chats i got he's throwing stuff at the wall the border he's trolling the 10-year note and he doesn't care about stocks and SPEAKER_19: then i got on shoring and manufacturing as a possibility we're going to make it more expensive to bring things in so why don't you consider making stuff here do you think that third possibility SPEAKER_32: is what's going on here does david freeberg pick one of these three choices or another what's going SPEAKER_53: on here with tariffs specifically i don't sit inside of trump's head and i don't have any direct line of communication to folks that are constructing the theory and the policy if i were to say what's SPEAKER_114: the most masterful plan in an optimistic way of what could be going on here what's the master plan SPEAKER_113: i would kind of craft it as follows tariffs aren't being done in isolation they're being done along with a coordinated policy effort to reduce income taxes and another policy effort to reduce government spending so those are three actions three legs on a stool so tariffs reduced income taxes reduced government spending and they are related to each other they're related to each other because if we SPEAKER_114: increase tariffs one element of that is that to import products is more expensive for example i buy led lights in my greenhouse and the price of the led lights just went up by 25 this week i actually spoke with the ceo of an led company and i was like why don't you guys make the leds here and there starts to become a crossover point where it actually makes economic sense for the company SPEAKER_113: to make the leds here instead of sourcing them from asia and there's a hundred thousand examples of this when the industrial supply chain goes to the lowest part of production it's going to end up offshoring when there's no tariffs and if there are tariffs then you start to do production here so you're increasing both kind of security for the u.s supply chain but also increasing demand and creation of a workforce now i think that the income tax piece is critical here because in order to make the capital available to build that industry here we need to have unleash capital and reducing of income taxes the economic theory would be that capital will now flow into these entrepreneurial activity these opportunities that have emerged where suddenly it makes sense for me to make textiles to make metals to make materials to make cars to make all this stuff here in the united states that otherwise wouldn't be making so both the corporate and the personal income tax by reducing it unleashes capital then instead of going into the government it now goes into the private sector into building businesses okay i think that there's another theory about this which is as you drop the income tax one of the kind of key theories that i've heard spoken about a lot lately and i think we're going to hear about it a lot more this year is trying to get the united states to move away from an income SPEAKER_114: taxation model to a consumption taxation model so effectively what the tariffs do is there's a tax SPEAKER_113: for you buying certain things so now instead of getting taxed when you earn money as an individual you get taxed when you spend money and some people think that that's both a more fair system and a more kind of economically vibrant system because that will drive investment in the things that people want to to produce because the money's going into production so do you think that freeberg SPEAKER_123: i'm curious i i don't know it's a really interesting economic theory i mean i am not opposed to seeing SPEAKER_113: some sort of an experiment play out where we look at a shift from income taxation to consumption taxation and see if it actually does have an effect on economic growth and productivity it has not been done in 150 years there's a lot of economic theorists on both sides of the equation saying this does work or it doesn't work okay and let me just say one last thing by reducing government spending we are moving workers from the government into the private workforce so as those new industries pop up as those investments start to get made in building new industry on shore where are the workers going to come from remember the government's 30 of the us gdp today so if that's not a great way to invest money maybe the private industry is better at investing money and employing people that will unleash the workforce and it will counterbalance the inflation that we're experiencing so there's a lot of inflation because of tariffs and by reducing government spending that's the offset to inflation so those three actions i think are three legs of a stool and they actually are all interrelated to one another so that would be my grand master theory of what might be going on this is an SPEAKER_126: interesting triangulation theory that people have been speculating about and there are a couple of SPEAKER_32: caveats here joe number one we do have lowering income tax and lowering services experiment it's called florida texas and a couple of the states where they have lower income tax and and more consumption tax we pay a lot more in real estate taxes here something we consume putting that aside the really interesting issue is we're at the lowest unemployment of our lifetime four percent where are all these workers going to come from what do you think joe now that you've heard the two other SPEAKER_19: panelists here discuss it what are we trying to get to where is the destination at the end of this term trump's lame duck he can go wild here he's not running free election and you know what what do you think he wants to see do you think he just wants to cement some sort of legacy and if so what's that SPEAKER_32: legacy and how do these actions equal his goals and legacy no listen i agree with what david with what SPEAKER_92: david was saying jason and it's it's a really important point also that we should mention is that the last four years the economy's looked okay but part of that is because government's been hiring like mad and so the point he made is that actually you know having twice as many people you know harassing me i just got back yesterday no action on an audit that's been harassing me on for three years they found nothing having twice as many people doing things like that and or like you know running tsa or pushing papers around in the department of labor doesn't actually add output to the economy and so you know it does seem like it makes a lot of sense let's take a million workers out of the consulting class around dc out of the you know paper pusher class around dc and let's actually deploy them to the actual productive economy elon and trump have both been saying that i think david's 100 right and it is true a lot of my companies thanks to the tariff stuff are looking to build stuff here so i'm not a huge fan of tariffs personally but they definitely make sense for things SPEAKER_94: in defense they definitely make sense for negotiating with countries and it is true it is pushing certain people to including me to build some more things in america here's where tariffs make a lot SPEAKER_45: of sense if you have markets where there are domestic alternatives and or where things are SPEAKER_65: fundamentally commodity there's no reason why tariffs can't work to create the incentives to redomicile economic productivity inside of the united states that's a that's a slam dunk i think SPEAKER_94: and shamat there's another twist on that too which i think we should all acknowledge is that america SPEAKER_92: does have some really tough environmental laws despite what jason may think of me i actually don't want my daughters growing up with your messy air messy water you know screwed up SPEAKER_132: country oh you i know that you're a nature guy but here's we're like a classic bush nature guy SPEAKER_136: but but here's here's the thing in china and indonesia and all these other countries SPEAKER_137: they are just over the environment as they make things i think tariffs are very reasonable in that SPEAKER_136: case like it's not fair to make it more expensive for us because we're doing it well and then we outsource it for them to destroy things right so so there are some things there where it doesn't Chamath Palihapitiya: make sense and what i would say is the other the other side of the of the tariff knife is that if there are markets though where you're making something that's fundamentally innovative where you are but one maker the problematic part of where tariffs really affect the u.s consumer is then the price of that product of which there are no competitive alternatives can go very very high and that's inflationary and i think that that slows down consumption and then if if that consumption is not just of something that's a nice to have but a must have then it becomes problematic and so you could see where tariffs could impact certain industries for example if there are innovative drugs i think that that's problematic if there are innovative technologies of which there's only one vendor that's problematic so all of those need to get sorted out but on balance in commodity markets like look at autos autos is a perfect example there are so many purveyors and providers of autos there's oems all around the world and so to have a compensatory system doesn't seem like an unreasonable thing where it's a tit-for-tat tariff but in other markets where if you need for example a specific piece of equipment from asml to build a chip and now all of a sudden that that machine is 25 percent more expensive or 30 percent more expensive and they pass that cost downstream it becomes very speculative SPEAKER_01: and it becomes a little bit more fragile i think this is dangerous though right chamath because i agree SPEAKER_94: with you in theory but then there's something where you know if everyone's lobbying for their thing SPEAKER_28: to be an exception you end up getting this very crony system that's that you don't necessarily want right so you have to be very careful how you define these things exactly so this is why the i Chamath Palihapitiya: think like sector by sector it's probably you can probably go and pass the smell test and say if there are multiple providers and or if it's somehow commodity i think it's easier to absorb the tariff in the short term maybe that's the right way to say it which is if you believe if trump believes everything should be tariff then instead of debating if to your point maybe the right thing to debate is when and you have to put some things on a much longer glide path so that you don't just create inflation out of nowhere and or you don't hold back american business or american SPEAKER_143: consumers well this is a key point because you do need to have predictability to make investment and SPEAKER_110: reciprocity so really two important points from what's making here one on reciprocity these things SPEAKER_32: haven't been looked at for a while i'm not sure how they got so out of whack but just putting some facts to this uh shamat's exactly correct we get placed uh when we send cars to the eu they get a 10 tariff but when we get their cars it's a two and a half percent tariff who let it get out of whack i'm not sure but why not make the reciprocity perfect and just hey you say 10 we say 10 you say two and a half we say two and a half and that would make i think a lot more sense just to put some numbers here on government employees it's not as bad as people make it out to be a lot of our spending is non-employee related but it is if you look over the last two administrations we have added million two million three employees across all i disagree that hold on let me just finish the SPEAKER_19: sentence so you have the facts and then you can disagree with the facts 1.3 million additional employees added this does not include contractors and so we don't know what usa was doing with ngos and SPEAKER_32: contractors and i think that's where we do need to get some clarity and to shamat's point this has all got to become predictable you cannot put tariffs on off every week or else how does your friend dave SPEAKER_21: who wants to do the led lighting where you're encouraging to do it led lighting know if they should build a factory and invest 10 million in that you disagree with the number of employees you SPEAKER_114: want to address that yeah look okay go ahead the government accounts for 30 of gdp in the united SPEAKER_150: states that's an extraordinary sum so just i was talking just about the employees that's a much SPEAKER_113: smaller person but that doesn't matter the direct employees of federal agencies is a fraction of people that are employed indirectly by government spending this is super important sure as we all know many government agencies write checks to large contractors subcontractors and third-party service providers that do the work for them so the money gets transferred they then employ the people and they do the work so it doesn't technically show up on federal government payroll registers but these are people that are indirectly employed by federal spending that's super important to to acknowledge that a large percentage of the u.s workforce is indirectly supported by federal dollars yeah it's SPEAKER_34: kind of it's got up massively with the ngos too so you've had about 4 million people employed by SPEAKER_92: contractors in dc 1.6 million more at the states actually by federal by federal spending and then SPEAKER_94: you have the ngos no one knows the ngos biden administration took down the data i used to see things in 2020 so we don't even know how much money but we know it was hundreds of billions SPEAKER_92: so it's pretty crazy the number one thing about how doge is not being done fully is that elon's doing an amazing job you know whether or not he cuts 500 billion or a trillion or a lot more but the senators and the congressmen are not willing to take it out of their bill their SPEAKER_137: reconciliation bill right now there's talking about cutting one to two trillion so rather than like SPEAKER_154: this is over 10 years it's ridiculous it's ridiculous if it was equal to what elon was doing SPEAKER_137: it'd be at least five trillion dollars and i push a bunch of them they say oh the congressional budget office and all these things i'm sure there's some tough things there but like this is crazy we need to see what these cuts need to be on doge and we need to cut five trillion and none of these people SPEAKER_156: have the balls to do that is there's not the political will to do it is my interpretation and SPEAKER_160: and just just no cojones let me just show you one chart to back that up i have my new disgraciad.com SPEAKER_19: for the week look at this you want to talk about software and waste 35 855 according to doge breaking news service now licenses on three products only being used by 84 people oh my god are you kidding me 11 000 acrobat licenses with 0.0 users disgraciad absolutely abhorrent and i'm saying it right now SPEAKER_89: i want an investigation into procurement who sold this who bought it this could be a crime this could SPEAKER_165: be fraud that could be kickbacks i'm saying it could be i don't think it's not too but i do think you have SPEAKER_166: to look at the earnings of these companies and question where's totally correct number two totally SPEAKER_89: correct if service now ever wants to work with the government again mr president mr president our SPEAKER_19: president i want them to pay us back for the unused licenses and i want a full order for the last 10 SPEAKER_89: years if they don't pay us back that money and give us a credit hold on hold on forever hold on SPEAKER_69: it's not thank you mr president this may not be service now's fault this may be the ineptitude of the people that bought the license but they should still give us a credit i want the money back for SPEAKER_113: the american people i do think adobe has the worst have you guys ever done adobe subscriptions they're impossible to cancel i think adobe the only thing harder than canceling an adobe license is trying Chamath Palihapitiya: to cancel wall street journal i was about to say world street journal that's the worst hall of fame let me just say something about the the budget because joe brings up something important unbelievable i'll just say it again at the sake of being redundant we're getting to the phase where the details are complicated and they now matter so we've talked about repealing the ira in its totality right so that was a statement and there's there's theoretically a lot of money there but the details now all of a sudden become complicated ferk published a report just this past week and what do you think it said was the percentage of incremental electricity that was generated from renewables versus non-renewables i'll tell you the answer it was almost 91 percent in december so if you now tie two huge initiatives together which is how do we find a budget that saves money and how do we continue to win an ai maybe you would have thought those weren't related well guess what we know that ai needs a tremendous amount of power and whatever you thought you knew actually you had to re-underwrite because what elon has shown is actually you need to now create these mega clusters 100 000 gpus going to a million gpus all of the power forecasting that we have is miscast it doesn't even account for this number one number two there are 35 000 applications into ferk to get approved to generate electricity 35 000 that's going to meander through some administrative rigmarole there is a five-year delay to get a gas turbine into america and online okay if you ordered one today the fastest that you can get it turned on is 2030 the fastest that you can get nuclear turned on is 2035 so we don't have the ability to generate incremental electricity very quickly but for renewables but then if you rip out the ira there's many parts of the ira by the way that are just trash nick i don't know if you can find it but barry weiss found this insane thing that made me so angry which i'm happy to talk about which was like a 30-day grant process that resulted in a seven billion dollar grant to some shell oh this was throwing the gold bars off the castle but the other part of the ira this narrow part is what it did to reinforce tax incentives and tax equity which is a 200 billion dollar market that incentivizes that 90 of energy generation so my point is that when you start to get into the details when the houseways and means community has to figure out what part to put back this is going to be hard because it's like hold on if you've got the whole thing now all of a sudden you take 90 of the incremental energy generation incentives out of the market you don't have enough electrons there isn't enough electricity so then you lose the ai ray so you start to lose it i think the point is that SPEAKER_43: we're now in the hard part where the details really matter listen you got to start with the chainsaw we Chamath Palihapitiya: saw that at twitter and by the way maybe you do when we started this he just tweeted this out he said guys now it's time to get surgical he then he said yes that was the metaphor i was about to use SPEAKER_89: is like you know you start with you cut out the goddamn service now in adobe subscriptions and then SPEAKER_32: you work on something you know more deft and maybe that's where we are ira just for the audience Chamath Palihapitiya: inflation reduction can i just do a rant on this on this pop-up ngo thing to me this is like the worst of america and it makes me so angry and i'll tell you my lived experience so i'm on the other side of this i started a company with these guys from tesla to make battery materials in the united states in 2019 we grind we grind we put in tens i put in tens of millions of dollars we get a deal with a big oem and then you see these doe grants we spent millions of dollars we file a very detailed plan to build battery metals and battery capacity in america we got rejected okay it was an entire year-long process we got rejected we put it past us we kept working we found more deals we found a way to survive raise a little bit more money and then we applied again on some success and we got a hundred million dollar grant okay that was that's what just happened this year but then yesterday i read and nick maybe you can throw this tweet up this barry weiss investigation somebody in 30 days who was connected to the democratic infrastructure had some shell organization that got a grant that was 70 times bigger than us like we've made stuff we had deals with oems we had to validate it every step of the way we were rejected once so our process to get a hundred million dollar doe program was two years these David Friedberg: people showed up in 30 days and got seven billion that's just why why didn't you put why didn't you SPEAKER_110: lead with dei or something you would have gotten a billion you just led with the wrong thing you SPEAKER_196: were actually providing a product or service people need this is this this is why you don't have any SPEAKER_197: equity in there for the minerals this is why it's so frustrating to build for the government guys this SPEAKER_198: is what palantir and spacex had to deal with that's why they both sued the government is that all the SPEAKER_92: friends who used to be the cio used to be the general made the right donations had the right kid on the board it's all corrupt and then it's actual substantive people you have to work like how SPEAKER_201: do they give seven billion dollars in 30 days we're gonna find out you got a bunch of democratic SPEAKER_113: operatives on the board well let me challenge you guys on one point there are now claims being made SPEAKER_114: by reporters and by third parties that are saying it is a new form of kleptocracy with all the friends of silicon valley installing their friends and agency heads as undersecretaries and so on that's going to benefit silicon valley investors silicon valley companies joe chama jcal i mean how do you guys SPEAKER_113: react to the claims that there's now you know this new kind of kleptocratic movement it's the old guard SPEAKER_208: is gone but now there's a new guard you have palantir you have andrel so go ahead you you answer SPEAKER_136: let's let's talk about this i mean when we go to dc when i go to dc what i am asking is i want SPEAKER_137: there to be a fair competition and if i win i want my company to actually be able to win the contract because the way it's worked for 20 years like like epris you could just raise 250 million dollars this week it's a great company we you know we had a big contest four years ago l3 raytheon northroth these guys you know in and out of government for decades they've they've gotten tens of billions of dollars to the same technology area when we went head to head with them we we didn't just like beat them by a little bit we shot down the hardened drones nine and a half times farther away same size same power nine and a half to completely wipe the floor what was the cost difference between the bids like are you saving us massive money massive money i invested only 30 40 in the whole thing at that point and they spent billions and we have much cheaper much better not even a question and you talk to the and you talk to like at the time the the chief of staff of the air force the guy around the four star and and he says well joe this was written three years ago it looks like raytheon probably did help write it and they required all these things and your way you're doing it i'm like i'm like yeah i'm using a chip instead of a cathode ray tube that's why it's working so much better it's like yeah but it was written for the way they're doing it and i could overrule it but it break a lot of glass so you'll probably win again in three years because everyone knows you're the best but it's too it's too frustrating you know it's too stressful to give it to you right now like that is that so so so what i'm doing is i'm not going and saying give my company's money i'm saying i'm saying make this actually a functional logical process and give me a chance to win if i'm the best and that that is a hundred times better for our country to push it that way SPEAKER_213: how do you but how do you make that transparent and how do you avoid there has to be massive SPEAKER_113: transparency how do you avoid the perception of conflict and the perception of kleptocracy well SPEAKER_137: it's acquisition it's acquisition reform right so like this is a really important story you guys probably know we were in the philippine jungles in early 1910s needed new pistols our pistols were terrible they have like a one page thing what they needed there's six arm manufacturers competed that's how we got the colt 1911 in like three months one by the by a large amount it's an awesome gun 12 years ago we had a 700 something page document that the bureaucrats spent years on outlining what they needed for a new pistol it probably needed to do dei stuff i have no idea it's like a long comical document they still don't have a new pistol today and so the way the way we do it is we have a very clear process where it's very specific on the outcomes not on the inputs and you have a contest and and then and then you make sure that you know it's not it's obvious who wins guys it's not like SPEAKER_94: we're like slightly better it's like we're shaming them so the only way they can stop us is by playing these games because we're just so much better i think that if you're in the Chamath Palihapitiya: administration or if you join some part of the administration whether you're a full-time employee or a gse or just a volunteer there's going to be that perception of impropriety or influence peddling that comes with the territory so how do you avoid it and i think that joe is exactly right when the administration was getting formed one of the things that happened i had an opportunity to work with some SPEAKER_69: of the folks to write some proposals for what theoretically could happen in some of these bigger government organizations where there's just huge pockets of spend and where i spent most of my Chamath Palihapitiya: time is what joe talked about how do you create open standards so that it's very clear what the competition is so that the rules on the ground can't get manipulated by people who are rolling out of government into private industry or somebody has a very deep relationship because of lobbying those are the things that pervert the clarity of what should happen because then what happens can be far afield of that so number one is i think knowing that this time around a different class of people are going to be seen on the quote unquote popular side it's really critical that all of us that are involved in this promote extremely transparent open standards publish every rfp publish every spec publishing every evaluation criteria make these things as mechanistic as possible so for example if you're going to go and field a drone there's an incredibly detailed set of data that you should be publishing in it's not dissimilar to how an faa asks for flight test data and you should be able to review that so that then it can be escalated so that if somebody then gets a deal because of preference and you think you're structurally better on the data there needs to be an escalation and a release valve that says hold on this is just being manipulated and i think that's how you fight back yeah on not just this version of a potential winning side versus losing side but forever in the future the government should be open the government should be transparent and every single point at which they're making a decision and giving money should be measurable and known you guys got exactly right there's transparency SPEAKER_32: there's oversight obviously but there's whistleblowers as well and there's the role of the SPEAKER_19: press in all of this to sort of fact check it and to check in on it as a safeguard with the public getting engaged and that's one of the great things that doge has done by having a twitter handle SPEAKER_32: i can pull up hey here's what's going on with these licenses and make an example so that kind of transparency helps and then finally we have to look at campaign finance that is where Chamath Palihapitiya: a lot of the appearance of impropriety exists go back to this other thing because that's a super important point like it just occurred to me that if what you said happens then look the incentive today in america is to try to position oneself to have one of these roles and the reason is because david of what you said there is the chance to then preferentially nudge an opportunity your way right yes why do people sit on committees why do people volunteer at least at that level and if you introduce open standards then the real incentive to want to go do this should be because you actually are patriotic and want to just help so chamath i think i think you're right about the SPEAKER_92: standards but i want to push back on the incentive today i know a lot of the people who are getting into SPEAKER_203: this and i really do think they're there to fight for the country i don't just say this like as like SPEAKER_226: you know naively or something like these people really are there for the right reasons for the Chamath Palihapitiya: most part no i know i'm just saying generally over like the last 50 years if you look at people there is this implied sense like for example like goldman sachs had a direct line to become treasury secretary if you were the ceo of goldman you were the treasury secretary now don't you think that that was discussed amongst partners at goldman and do we not think on the margins that that beneficially helped goldman of course it did we'd be we'd be naive to think otherwise my my point is not that my point is just that going forward the best thing all of our friends could do is just make it all open source and open standards that would be an incredible artifact i think for SPEAKER_228: america joe i think you telling us hey i trust these people they're our friends you know that works with all of us because yes we know them we know they're going to do the stand up right thing and SPEAKER_19: if you already have a ton of money like some incremental amount of money is not going to move the needle for you it's it's it's farcical for us to think that david sachs is going to give up four years of income producing have to sell all his positions and that is in some way good for his balance sheet it is not he's going to miss out on four years of ai and the massive run-up of our lifetime in order to serve the country but i can tell you people don't believe that just like you know SPEAKER_32: used talked about the kleptocracy and the revolving door to raytheon or whoever that people have talked about forever what you need is whistleblower protections journalists going after this like barry weiss is doing old school journalism investigative the whistleblower laws are great in our country we need to keep reinforcing those but i'm going to go back to we need to limit campaign contributions we have to get rid of super packs because these create the appearance of impropriety SPEAKER_19: and the appearance of impropriety with trump's mean coin and that announcement on sunday for the crypto reserve was you know it doesn't help the mission here that trump is trying to get done so maybe you could speak to that because that's where the appearance of impropriety is great you got people SPEAKER_32: like sailor who's doing his bitcoin thing he's going on friday and you know sax will do a do a little bit SPEAKER_110: here and announce some stuff on the program hopefully but maybe you could talk about what you objected to SPEAKER_32: with the coins the meme coin and or the the announcement of the crypto reserve should our SPEAKER_17: government and after all these donations from massive people like i saw at the crypto ball all the people who were tweeted by trump that looks terrible you tell me what you think i agree with SPEAKER_232: you on the tweet you're sneaking two things together here though so i want to be really SPEAKER_234: precise jason because let's be precise that's what we do here there are a lot of different possible SPEAKER_94: ways that people can help politicians and so one of them is if you're a celebrity like even all your guys show at this point you can you can affect what people think that's definitely powerful same there's there's other ways that if you're part of a big union you're part of a government union that's a very powerful you know influence in our society if you're part of a american medical association health care system there the doctors and health systems are very powerful even without super PACs in our society and what a super PAC is it's a form of free speech and it's true wealthy people have the ability to influence things through that speech but it's like one of many and so if you're cutting that you're basically saying okay i don't want elon and joe to have as much say there but i do want to have even more say for the celebrities and for the doctors and for the union members and government so you have to realize you're dealing with a complicated situation with lots of forms of power i do agree with you as i said and listen i saw david and we gave each other a hug i think we're all good but i was very frustrated with the posts of trump mentioning specific coins i don't know who was trading them before it just looks bad like we're fighting all this grift reading all these things where we have the moral high ground i agree i don't want to give SPEAKER_203: up the moral high ground with these with these silly schemes that that's 100 the case are you SPEAKER_126: saying with like there's many forms of influence that you think super PACs and rich people should SPEAKER_228: be able to i think speech is important 50 million dollar 20 million dollar donations you'd actually SPEAKER_94: think that's fair for democracy i actually i actually think speech is very important i think the ability for me to send out something and say guys i'm studying this it's corrupt it's been corrupt for 50 years we have to all get together and stand against these health systems these crazy defense companies that have captured and broken everything like i think my ability to speak and SPEAKER_137: do that and to convince people is really valuable and i and i've you know i passed dozens of laws each year into different states by convincing people nothing to do with making me money that these incentives and accountability are wrong i think that's a good thing that i'm allowed to do SPEAKER_240: that should they be good so when you say speech you mean write a check you mean right it's not very SPEAKER_137: large checks you have to be careful that so the reason the supreme court ruled for super PACs is not just about giving you're not you're not giving them the money you're actually speaking yourself SPEAKER_92: so when elon spends 300 million dollars he's actually spending it many times putting out his own SPEAKER_243: speech or he's putting out what about you you think that soros elon let's take the names out of it SPEAKER_32: do you think there should be a cap on what you're able to donate to super PACs because this does create the massive appearance of impropriety whether it's in crypto whether it's on the you know soros on the democrat side this seems to be i mean i'm in favor of there being more hard caps whether it's 5 10 or 25 million i think there needs to be caps and i think we should put a fund together for the last two or three people and let them get that money from the government it's to run their campaigns like other SPEAKER_138: countries do i think it's important to note that this pendulum has swung pretty wildly out of wax in citizens united yeah and it's not this is not a republican thing meaning there's a whole bunch of Chamath Palihapitiya: factions there's the george soros faction that's true there's the liberal democrat faction lest we forget i think zuck spent 350 million in 2020 oh yeah then there's the coke brothers faction and then there's what showed up this year with elon so my point is there's all kinds of pockets of spending in all manner of ways i think the question is should citizens united have allowed this kind of spending and are we better off as a democracy for it and i think what is your nothing the reason why i would be in favor of going back to the way it was is that i think the biggest problem is the redistricting and the gerrymandering that happens and the amount of influence that happens downstream inside of state and local elections and there are just places that are just so sclerotically stuck if you look at the federal despite all the spending you still see at the presidential level like pretty reasonable and healthy competition between two people it's much more difficult to see dynamism lower and lower down ballot and so the reason to get rid of citizens united from my perspective is that you'd have much more vibrant local state mayoral elections those things have huge impacts i SPEAKER_210: think to to quality okay so you and i are in that camp chosen the other freeberg your thoughts you're the deciding vote here it's two to one in terms of the panel it's not two to one well you just said to SPEAKER_258: me you you just said to me you think we should go back the way it was the supreme court's on my side SPEAKER_19: so you guys are in trouble exactly yeah i mean but the point of this program sometimes is not just to is to take ownership of your opinion and defend it so i mean we have i want to see people own it here in the discourse or freeberg you can say pass but you don't get to say nothing okay what does it SPEAKER_114: mean to spend money on a political point of view exactly what does it mean it means you can put a SPEAKER_137: book i mean the other side wanted to censor books that's the thing like like if i want to if i want SPEAKER_113: to pay someone to make a book for me if i want to pay someone if i want to pay 50 people to go and engage the community so i can get some leverage on my time if i want to pay someone to make a website to promote my point of view on something i should be able to do that and if my point of view is related to a vote that congress might be taking or is related to a candidate that's running for election or is related to taxes or is related to some other social issue i don't know how you can kind of very clearly delineate the difference between some kind of political party or some political candidate versus my having a point of view on an issue if i care very deeply about animal welfare which i do and if i had enough money that i felt like i could spend that money to influence people's point of view to improve animal welfare through laws and through candidates i would spend that money and i should have a right to do so and i shouldn't feel restricted that i can't go publicly express my voice make websites put up billboards put up posters buy ads and papers telling people how wrong it is the way we treat animals and slaughter them and keep them living for their very short lives in terrorist conditions i want to be able to express that point of view and so i kind of veer Chamath Palihapitiya: to this idea can i ask you a question would you do you think that your money spending if the balance of power to get your view was to redistrict certain places so that then you could get a majority of people that were ideologically aligned to you elected would you do that as well forget there's no ads running this is about a different form of electoral influence would you do that so not spending SPEAKER_269: money you're saying like i'm not spending money to you you'd spend money but it's not for ads it's not but how does that work how do you spend money to redistrict you get certain people elected by Chamath Palihapitiya: trucking people out to vote and then you get that person to join a coalition that then redistricts i SPEAKER_113: mean maybe trucking people out to vote as an action should be illegal that seems pretty SPEAKER_43: reasonable to me well yeah i mean to your point freeberg you asked like how do you define it what i'm trying to point out to you is for every dollar that goes into politics i think it's i would ask you Chamath Palihapitiya: guys to just suspend belief that a hundred percent of that goes to ads or what i'm trying to say yeah i hear you i would say a very small not a very small 10 10 10 to 20 cents goes to ads 80 goes to all SPEAKER_113: kinds of shady stuff and there's also canvas by the way you call it shady but i would argue like what if i want to make a bunch of websites what if i want to make like you know have people go out and express the point of view in the town square you know like there are other aspects of what you might Chamath Palihapitiya: what i'm saying is that's fine that's in the 10 cent bucket the 80 cents what i'm trying to tell you explicitly is how it's spent today is not in the ways that you think i think that the fact that SPEAKER_114: someone calls it shady might be because they disagree with my point of view and if they agree Chamath Palihapitiya: with my point of view they might not call it i think i think the tactics today look i play with the conditions on the field but if you look at them meaning like using dollar incentives to incentivize people that's allowed today you can pay people to vote today before we had you can pay them to join SPEAKER_283: a super pack or something like that but hold on let me let me just get joe involved here so joe you SPEAKER_19: heard freeberg's you're kind of in alignment i think broadly but we can define some very specific things that are obviously political like the window of when you spend the money like why telling people SPEAKER_96: well because you could say in the six in the year leading up to the election what if i'm not targeting SPEAKER_19: a specific vote i get it i get it if you're not if you're targeting an issue that's one thing but when you tell people she's for they then he's for you that's clearly a political ad now you could take those ads you could take canvassing you could define a subset of behaviors and you could say you can raise up to this amount of money per person in that way that to me those things are explicitly political when you tell people this is about candidate a versus candidate b if you were to say this we're not going to mention any candidates but we're going to talk about your puppies and you SPEAKER_32: trying to increase your q score here on the goddamn pod by saving puppies don't be animal welfare is a SPEAKER_290: up issue and it's something you shouldn't just disagree agreeing with you i just don't like how SPEAKER_291: many points you're scoring with the audience over did you guys see this thing on instagram my wife showed it to me i'm going to save five puppies for my ranch somebody save some cows did you guys see Chamath Palihapitiya: this instagram reel my wife showed it to me it's like of a of a calf chasing a dog and it cuts to this asian guy and he's like what's the big deal here what are we talking about like you know you want us SPEAKER_66: to not eat everything blah blah blah and then he realizes that they're talking about the dog versus the SPEAKER_19: cat don't trigger freeberg don't do that leap freeberg i got 33 acres of paradise don't laugh SPEAKER_32: i got 33 acres paradise i'm going to save every animal in in central texas i'm going to eat them SPEAKER_299: and i and i would give you money to do that okay great i got a deal actually i actually i agree with SPEAKER_94: what shavath was saying about gerrymandering i think we could use ai for that it's a separate SPEAKER_137: conversation it's discussing how it works right now however jason the problem at the end of the day with defining what's political or not is the boundary cases are really tough and you do end up needing effectively effectively a censorship board example is i write i write a book about the dangers of communism and it explains how it's linked to things going on today and i like give it out at SPEAKER_94: like all these people are going to be voting i mean there's just so many boundary cases yeah but SPEAKER_239: if we just said you can spend up to 10 million a year doing political activity 10 million a year SPEAKER_304: gives you a cap so you can buy so many books and buy so many it's not political activity it's my art SPEAKER_126: this is a this is an artistic piece totally fine but when you put the book in and say vote for biden then we would say okay you put a vote for biden saying though it becomes it becomes really Chamath Palihapitiya: complicated i just ran it through grok and what the answer was is that 56 of all the spending happens to be on ads and 44 of all dollars in 24 25 was spent on other yeah yeah so there's SPEAKER_32: well so if you put canvassing in there i bet you it's 75 so if we just say for those two activities put a hard cap on them i would be for that but let's keep going we got a bunch of tech SPEAKER_311: yeah let's talk about the market markets let's talk about core weave all right gentlemen we can't SPEAKER_32: talk about politics all day as exciting as it is let's talk about this core weave ipo if you don't SPEAKER_19: know core weave is part of a new type of infrastructure provider called neocloud it's a fancy way of saying using gpus to build data centers this is a really interesting company because they got onto gpus early and SPEAKER_32: they had a lock-in on a large number of nvidia's gpus they've uh got 32 data centers with 250 000 nvidia gpus as an example when elon built the largest fastest uh data center colossus that was a hundred thousand so this is you know really really a big company they're going to do an ipo analysts are estimating they're going to raise at least 3.5 billion at over 30 billion dollars their secondary was 23 billion in november of 2024 so this is cooking with oil they've got incredible revenue by the way 1.9 billion in 2024 but if you look at two years ago how much revenue they have the growth is amazing nick put a chart in here in post because uh it's like a 10x i think each year or something crazy like that when i talked about it on the other pod but they're very unprofitable almost a billion dollars in loss in 2024 and that's interest payments on a lot of their debt they have almost 8 billion in debt huge debt load to buy all these gpus and that has been the question we've been talking about here chamoff is are these gpus are these neo clouds fancy way of saying i'll give Chamath Palihapitiya: you a couple factoids about core which i find super impressive so the first question is like you would say why didn't aws gcp and azure eat these guys for breakfast lunch and dinner and as it turns out they had SPEAKER_69: one very specific technical decision that i think was extremely valuable which is that these guys did Chamath Palihapitiya: not use hypervisors explain what that is so a hypervisor is basically a middleware layer of software that allows you to abstract units of compute so that then you can make them available and instead they basically allowed you to write to the bare metal and this very native approach that allowed them to get a lot of traction so it's a really interesting thing to note that just that simple thing like one simple technical design decision can allow you to build what looks like at least from the revenue perspective an incredible business right so kudos to them super awesome to see that you can still maneuver around the big giants i think that that's cool i think the big question with coreweave is what is the period of amortization and the useful life of these gpus from nvidia and i think that that question is up in the air as you said jason a lot of their losses are these interest payments and as long as that they have that calculated right in their models that they used to borrow all this money to buy all these gpus from nvidia this is going to be a killer business to the extent that they got that calculation wrong meaning we thought the useful life was 10 years but it turned out to be five this business is deeply underwater so i think that that's the bet the bet is they've built an amount of headway they're going to continue to do this good technical engineering but the other side of it is is the useful life right is the technology curve right is moore's law and all these other things will they work in its favor or against it and i think that's SPEAKER_90: that's yeah and joe people say useful lifespan gpus three to five years before the next generation is SPEAKER_19: so much more powerful especially in relation to power consumption that it's worth running it now with servers old cpus for running facebook it's a totally different story you can keep those running five to SPEAKER_317: seven years before it's not worth running and you have to turn them off what do you think here SPEAKER_34: you're right there's an economic question on the power and all these things i actually know brandon he lives nearby me in my house in montana he's a really smart guy and i think the really interesting SPEAKER_94: thing you know when they built this i think is relevant going forward is these guys were commodities traders and they were originally buying stuff to like mine bitcoin and other stuff like that and they realized as commodities traders there's like a certain supply and demand in the market of gpu chips but also of all the data centers by the way and it's really it's really interesting what they did is they locked down the full supply of tons of data centers tons of the power they needed tons of the chips and they're very very thoughtful i mean they're effectively they're traders and they're and they're very economic and they have i think they have bottled Chamath Palihapitiya: this stuff well that explains the technical decision because they have to have very low latency SPEAKER_69: throughput in order to transact efficiently as commodities traders i'm guessing there is one SPEAKER_32: exactly Achilles heel that's clear for this company friedberg they had massive revenue growth but they have a dependency 60 of the revenue now from microsoft and microsoft seems to have done SPEAKER_19: this either it's unclear but maybe to service the open at ai deal where they needed to give them a bunch of infrastructure or it might be for azure it's unclear people have been asking this SPEAKER_32: question for a couple of years now but what do you think of a business with one client with 60 SPEAKER_94: dependence and this is how these things work jason is they just one client tends to grow really really SPEAKER_92: fast and they they're actually you know so they do this orchestration framework called sunk i know SPEAKER_94: a little bit about it it's like really easy for scheduling workflows and batches and all these things so i think a lot of other people are using really well they've just bought weights and SPEAKER_92: biases right which like everyone uses basically yeah it's a great buy and that's awesome they're SPEAKER_43: killer for training i mean i think these guys crushing training satya nadell said that microsoft SPEAKER_90: was doing this maybe not for a long-term usage so freeberg your thoughts on core weave i'm not as SPEAKER_114: deep as you guys are i remember in 2003 i worked for nine months at a private equity firm and i would cold call like companies that hadn't raised venture capital that were profitable and fast growing and see if they would take our money that's the business model and i spent a lot of time in the sector of businesses that were called speed doublers i don't know if you guys remember these companies 2003 was before we all had broadband internet so we were a lot of people were using dial-up and you could pay 9.99 a month for a speed doubler and what it would do is it would basically on your browser SPEAKER_113: set the server to be their server and they had a cache of many of the popular sites on the internet so when you started browsing the internet on your computer everything loaded faster because they had really fast servers and you got these caches and these companies dude they were doing like tens of millions of revenue high margin 50 plus EBITDA margin and growing like 100 plus a year and i remember we we spent a bunch of time looking at these companies this is right before i joined google and i was like this feels like a transitory business it's like an arbitrage between where we were and where we're going and that's what ended up happening many of them just cash flowed out the founders took money or they were able to get a really smart private equity recap done get some money out and run at some low multiple of EBITDA or something and so i worry a little bit about a business like this where there's four or five companies that are each doing 80 billion dollars of capex this year to create infrastructure that effectively starts to replace what these guys are effectively offering out as a service that would be my biggest kind if i was to do diligence on this business that's where i would spend a lot of my time is like guys what's the capacity going to be in a year or two sort of SPEAKER_114: like when broadband hit the internet you didn't need speed doublers anymore do you really need to be paying as much as you are today is there going to be as much demand how much is this going to get bundled in with gcp or aws and so on in the future so that would be my kind of macro hesitation and caution on the diligence as i ran my diligence on this thing you basically need an economist to SPEAKER_332: map this all out it's the same question for data centers in a related way right which you just SPEAKER_28: need to map everything and i don't have those data those numbers so you're right it's a hard thing to SPEAKER_336: figure out that's right that's right well the founders have control of the company and they sold 500 million secondary they sold a lot maybe it's 150 each yeah but they've kept most of their SPEAKER_340: position they're smart guys so yeah they still own the majority i don't know i'm sorry i don't want to SPEAKER_53: speak negatively about the business and i haven't spent much time on it but i mean i think that SPEAKER_344: that's what's the worst that could happen if you speak negatively about somebody's business you know what's the worst thing maybe you get more followers i don't know if you tell us what is it SPEAKER_352: like to be on somebody's list for a decade i don't know i mean the ratings keep going up for this week in startups and all in so i'll i'll take a shout out are you purposefully starting to dress SPEAKER_113: up jacal by the way because i notice every week now you're wearing like a SPEAKER_243: speaking gig i had a speak i had a speaking gig but my friends at eton reached out to me so i might SPEAKER_356: be trying to do a little grip right now are you plugging right now laura piana hasn't reached out SPEAKER_90: but eton shirts which i'm wearing right now eton you know the famous uh people are uh they've been SPEAKER_19: reaching out and i also no no no no i got but i'm also saying tom ford's people reached out and said you know that lapel thing you can take that off if you want we'll have somebody come over so i just SPEAKER_290: want to shout out my friends over there have no commercial deal with them yet keton k-i-t-o-n jackets i've been wearing k-i-t-o-n very nice jackets on earth i wear them all the time i love those jackets just saying let's move on by the way yes and joe lonsdale's outfits are done by the SPEAKER_98: uyghurs the uyghurs in china he gets them specifically made for 17 dollars i was recently i was recently sponsored by a company it's got this is incredible what they do is when you're Chamath Palihapitiya: flying into an fbo they they meet you at the fbo and they take your watch and they they set the new time for you so especially if it's a mechanical watch is a very complicated oh yes this is very SPEAKER_243: important right i got you know what i was flying to malta and i had my watch collection and they did SPEAKER_370: this for me when i was flying between montenegro and malta absolutely i'm just trolling this is like four spy villains telling you how to look at the world we should get rid of income tax SPEAKER_239: i'm sure everybody listings like hmm really convenient no income tax for the billionaires and sent to millionaires good job guys all right let's keep going down the top SPEAKER_32: all right you know we've been going back and forth in the group chat and you've been talking about it publicly maybe main street versus wall street and what's going on in the markets here because there's SPEAKER_19: eu uh bond issues we obviously uh it seems like in some ways maybe the trump campaign is not thinking about the stock market as much as they're thinking about the bond market explain to Chamath Palihapitiya: us your take on markets right now yeah i think that there's three markets that are important there's the u.s long end of the curve so this is the 10-year bond yield i think then there's the u.s equity market and then the most next important market are the european bond and equity markets together and i'll explain why in a second but just on the first few i i mentioned this before but i really do think we're in a secular shift where i think the maga majority and the base of people that can be a reliable voting block in the future as i've said before are working in middle class folks that don't necessarily own a ton of stocks nor do they own homes of which there's a lot second cohort are people that are pro-innovation and pro-tech and the third are patriotic business owners i think that cohort is very large and i think that when the core strategists inside of maga figure this out one of the big takeaways is that they're not going to care about the stock market in wall street and a lot of the policies will be viewed through the lens of main street and i think that you started to see this rhetoric now one from besant and we'll play this clip in a second and the second was just today from trump himself but nick do you want to play the best and clip if you have it i think over the the SPEAKER_373: medium term which is what we're focused on it's a focus on main street wall street's done great wall street can continue to do fine but we have a focus on small business and the consumers so we are going to rebalance the economy we're going to bring manufacturing jobs home that was the first one SPEAKER_173: the second one was just today nick i sent it to you do you want to just show it to these guys which i SPEAKER_336: think is really interesting so it says here breaking news from i guess unusual wells trump has just said he's not looking at the stock market okay so not sure i believe that but okay so why is this actually Chamath Palihapitiya: valuable well if we are incentivized if the government of america is incentivized to implement policies that crack the equity markets it's actually really good in some ways number one is if you deflate asset prices you also deflate inflation okay and give an example there for the audience so we make it clear nvidia is ripping at all-time highs you are like oh wow i'm so cash rich you can go get a margin loan you take that money you reinvest it in a second home and a third home you sell some stock you start to buy cars all this other stuff it drives consumptive behavior that on the margin isn't there if the markets were much much lower than this so if you rebase the equity values that people have what you do is you actually depress the amount of free cash flow that they have to spend on other things so it's a deflationary tactic how the bond market reacts to that is if the stock market goes down is you start to become a flight to quality right oh my gosh there's volatility in the stock market oh my gosh i don't want to deal with the stock market going down let me just sell take some chips off the table and buy 10-year bonds when you buy the bonds the interest rate goes down why is that good for america we have 10 trillion dollars we need to go out and borrow in the next nine months and so if we can pay three percent 3.8 percent four percent we save us ourselves trillions of dollars versus if we had to pay four and a half five five and a half percent so that's the second thing and then the third thing is that right now what we had this week because of the ukraine and zelensky thing is basically trump say we are totally risk off this war and i'm not going to debate whether that's right or wrong but that's what he said we're going to curtail the aid we're not even going to share intelligence they're on their own what did that force what happened this week was the europeans had to basically circle the wagons and they said okay we're going to step up and what they announced was a four-year plan to borrow money to invest in defense what they also did which was really interesting is the uk specifically said we're going to borrow it in this clever little way this is their interpretation so that it doesn't actually count in the debt to gdp calculations of my country so they'll start they're starting to leave but then so then how did the bond market react to it nick you can show it they're like you know what guys if you want to fight this war obviously you're allowed to do whatever you want but the cost that you're going to have to pay is going to go up this has been going up every day and you're at a point now where this is severe fiscal pressure on these governments i do not know how they sustain their deficits and raise more debt so all of this is happening all at the same time i think trump is pro main street equity markets basically do not get bid the bond markets respond positively yields go down good for america they extract themselves from spending programs like again it's more than a spending program but i'll just say it in this context narrowly russia ukraine is a spending program that that if you take off the table that balance of responsibility goes to europe and then the markets are saying this is not right we want this war to end and we're going to make it more expensive for you to litigate it if you put it all SPEAKER_69: together it's a really interesting moment in the markets i haven't seen in a very long time SPEAKER_110: joe you think this is the refinancing of our debt is the end game here there's like maybe 10 of SPEAKER_32: people who seem to have fallen in that camp when i queried on these four group chats hey you know if we can depress everything we lower consumption we break inflation even more maybe people lose their jobs you know less consumption and rates go down we have to cut rates three or four times put pressure SPEAKER_384: on the fed then we can maybe refinance our debt which is coming up some percentage of it what do you SPEAKER_130: think of that theory you know jason jamath has a lot of interesting thoughts here and i think it's i SPEAKER_94: think it's a very smart analysis i'm not fully aligned it is true bond markets hate war war is SPEAKER_92: expensive or is inflationary it's very clear europe is going through okay you know war is more likely for us to spend money that and that hurts them you know in the us i think the number one thing that scott besson and trump would want around this is is to fight for main street like they said but that really is you know the kind of populist energy we have right now and so i think they are focused on lower interest rates lower interest rates you know i have someone who works with me uh their spouse you know as a real estate agent and then they're having a really tough couple years because industry spiked up if you're going to trace down again there's so many different places in america where people start making money again with with the title companies with uh brokers with uh there's so many things SPEAKER_203: that happen right with that and so it's it's well it's not just trickle down it's like this is the SPEAKER_94: part of the economy that that just really does start to turn on and certain transactions can happen again and you're right it is cheaper debt that is that there's an advantage as well so i think disinflation is very important and i think we have to find some way to get there chamath may be right that it's worth hitting assets to get to this inflation that's something that scott could be working out because of all the debt but it is it is true it's the easiest it's the easiest it's the easiest and we do and we do need it for sure so and i hopefully i think there's some other more clever ways to get there but but but i do like that i mean you said there's some more clever ways to get SPEAKER_110: there obviously we don't want to see eight nine ten percent unemployment that's another way to get there and we don't want that because you know main street equals jobs so what do you what is your SPEAKER_94: other ways to get there well the other ways to get there is there's two there's really two right SPEAKER_92: now in our society that are very positive one of them is a higher productivity through ai i'm SPEAKER_203: working on a ton of things as are sure everyone else doing that like we're doing construction for SPEAKER_399: much cheaper right now government can't do that though right government can't be involved in that SPEAKER_94: that's up to us yeah we can make sure not describing david's doing good work we can make sure not to screw it up there's a lot of people trying to screw it up and garbage so i think david's SPEAKER_110: job is very important there to get him is not here please and then and then the and then the second SPEAKER_94: thing is actually cutting spend like just giving out hundreds of billions willy-nilly to stacy abrams at all is very inflationary and so so so i think i think cutting spend it actually is a very positive SPEAKER_122: thing we could do a lot more of that freeberg you heard the two gentlemen what are your thoughts on SPEAKER_32: the refinancing of interest as i've done before i'm going to give you incredible leadership credit for three years ago on this pod pushing all of us to really think about what would happen if the debt increased another eight trillion which it did and i think that influenced a lot of people in our circles and obviously that's something that the president took on when none of us thought he would any president would ever take on that issue how much pain do you think trump is willing to take with the stock market going down in order refines the debt the debt is he willing to be incredibly unpopular is he willing to deal with the criticism from wall street and from equity holders over some sustained period and how much would he be if it goes down the market goes down 10 20 do you think he's gonna cry uncle or you SPEAKER_114: think he's willing to take that kind of pain freeberg like i said i i don't know about trump there's a you know i would say 60 40 i'd be right 40 i'd be wrong so i i don't know people are here for that SPEAKER_110: that's actually a pretty good ratio in poker if you can win that many hands yeah i mean i'd say 60 SPEAKER_114: he's probably different than trump 1.0 and he's probably less influenced by the short-term rumblings about the market okay and he's probably listening to besant on this one although you know i i think it's it's got to be a complicated relationship between the two of them at the moment i i do think that he is aware and i would imagine the administration generally with besant and others in in in kind of key leadership positions are trying to make the case that if we can get rates down we have an opportunity to kind of refinance this 10 trillion dollars that's coming due in the next 12 months and get ourselves into a kind of more sustainable financing position there's still the fiscal position which is how are we spending money and how are we spending money over time that needs to be addressed this is this is the central question you're totally right let's address SPEAKER_110: that specifically with ukraine you're a bit of uh a hawk an american exceptionalist joe and um we are looking at a situation where we spent 175 billion there were some other numbers that trump SPEAKER_32: was floating around that were incorrect and they got fact checked 175 billion is what we're actually in for according to all accounts this was done as i said many times on this very program and got laughed at and joked about done on a lease loan trump because these things were done on a lease loan now has the SPEAKER_47: upper hand with zelensky and he's a great negotiator and he said we want 500 billion back don't need to SPEAKER_32: make this about dollars and cents here because obviously this is life and death and people's democracy we're talking about their sovereignty but that 175 billion if he gets that 500 billion back that's a 42 irr in three years on this even if we just got our money back that would be fine for the american people how do you look at the war in ukraine both financially and in terms of containing putin and finally in terms of our participation in nato is it time for us to leave nato joe lonsdale SPEAKER_411: wow well you know jason putin's a bad guy that's number one he's shouldn't have thank you for saying SPEAKER_412: that it's refreshing to hear it on this podcast you know i i do think the last administration SPEAKER_94: mismanaged it i don't think he would have invaded with trump as president he certainly would have SPEAKER_92: invaded with competent person threatening him so but you know but now we have to have peace and i do want peace i don't want to have the war continuing but to get peace you got to get both sides to come to the table i prefer peace through strength i prefer being really strong on putin and showing why he has to have peace but then you need zelensky to be a partner for it too and i do think listen i do think zelensky had the wrong idea on the white house last week he should have been thanking them he should have come more humbly he should have actually been directed towards really wanting a peace and listen i i agree that ukraine's a very corrupt country we may find out that he and his cronies have been taking a bunch of money i don't know if they are or not either way he has not really been signaling the right way to be open to peace and in a piece that does i think have to give up a little bit of ukraine in order to get there i think that's the option on the table SPEAKER_414: right now and that's the direction what about the nato question what's the you know and thank you for SPEAKER_32: being so candid here what's the the nato outcome here is it time for maybe europe to just go it alone because they don't seem to like what happened last friday at the white house they yeah and and SPEAKER_90: maybe do you think it's time maybe that we we bow out and let them arm up this is really tough for SPEAKER_94: me because some of the people i care about most in the world uh live in places like germany and around SPEAKER_203: there and i want them to be safe i also think that the historic relationship between the uk and the us is this very very valuable thing that we have they shouldn't just be tossed aside these are these are critical very long time allies and cousins you know i think europe's in a very very bad place it's very dysfunctional man it's it's i did not see european civilization going the right way the SPEAKER_94: next 20 or 30 years i think jd's right to criticize them on on anti-free speech on like you know arresting people who criticize the islamic threat like more than the people actually doing the rapes and stuff it's crazy these places have lost their minds you know yeah it's bonkers so you know do i want to to totally give it up no but do i want to demand fiercely that the certain things get fixed and to use our foreign policy apparatus to make sure we fix those things if SPEAKER_47: we're going to stay in the relationship 100 what do you think jama this nato question seems like europe SPEAKER_32: is kind of signaling that they're willing to go it alone and should the united states just say okay go for it we're we're out because that's literally what sacks retweeted recently just said hey we're out is your problem um and i think the administration has given him free reign to to discuss the topic SPEAKER_419: you talked discussed it here for many years what are your thoughts should we be out on nato well i Chamath Palihapitiya: think the question is when do these transnational organizations outlive their utility that's the SPEAKER_138: question on the table and it's not just a question for nato but it's a question for a bunch of these other things the who nato the united nations there's many of these organizations what you've seen is that there Chamath Palihapitiya: are competitive organizations now that are just as important if not more so if you didn't like opec well then there is this opec plus plus thing if you didn't like how the europeans and the americans did intelligence gathering then all of a sudden five eyes came out of nowhere if you didn't like the g7 there's the bricks right so there is this tendency for the world to create these startups to try to challenge incumbency as the conditions on the ground change i think the most important thing right now the europeans need to do is acknowledge this one critical fact the individual governments of europe are vibrant and powerful the european union itself was created almost without any real teeth and so what happened is the folks there started to pass inordinate numbers of laws yeah and that has made it really complicated to be a european company a european citizen and that has to get sorted out what is the real decision there is it about being italian is it about being european what is the separation and i don't think that that's clear and i think once they figure that out all this other SPEAKER_254: stuff is much easier to figure out well you also have yeah other organizations interpol right we have that you have the un i mean it is maybe time to just re-underwrite each of them freebrook SPEAKER_114: what do you think i think that there is a viable case for a peaceful transition to kind of a multi-polar power dynamic and if you're a techno pessimist you're gonna have a point of view that there are more limited resources available to humans on earth and therefore we have to have influence to access those resources if you're a techno optimist you will believe that through ai and automation and all these other technologies that we could spend quite a bit of time around that we are going to have abundant housing abundant fuel abundant materials and generally an abundance of everything that one particular group might demand or need and you don't need to go be an empire to access the resources that your people are demanding and what i mean is the mining industry is a good example there is this discovery which i think we put on the docket for the science corner today of a giant thorium reserve in inner mongolia which can be used to make a thorium molten salt reactor and there's enough thorium in this reserve in china to produce enough energy for 60 000 years of consumption based on current consumption rates i saw a fantastic presentation this week by a startup that's using ai and other sensing technologies to identify new rare earth deposits in the crust of the earth that we have absolutely no visibility into today and many of our assumptions about how much availability there is of certain rare earth metals is wrong and that there actually may be many many many orders of magnitude more material available to us to mine and the technology for mining is getting better the technology for discovering these deposits is improving and so on so in that world where suddenly i can make all the food i want everyone can be fed there's plenty of land there's plenty of housing there's plenty of water there's automation that and robots that are serving me and all this sort of amazing stuff that's coming this century do i really need to be having a freaking conflict with russia and china over access to some SPEAKER_113: jungle or some plot of land on the other side of the planet or can i live sustainably on in my country and everyone's going to be generally happy so i think that this idea that maybe the u.s exits nato and the u.s dials down its level of conflict and opposition to russia and or china is a pretty reasonable and i would argue maybe even a techno-optimistic point of view and you know we may find that in the next couple of years we start to really believe it and if we start to believe it all the things that we're fighting over today you don't really need to fight over anymore except for the expansionist intentions of individuals which is a sociological phenomenon which may still continue but i'm not sure that you need to be investing as much resources as we have historically so i would argue maybe nato in a multi-polar world of abundance isn't as necessary as it has been in the past century which was a world that was limited in resources fighting for access and a growing global SPEAKER_114: population particularly in the developed world in the west that's made it a necessity to maintain u.s primacy and u.s policing of the world and i know others might have a point of view that's a SPEAKER_110: little bit different on that but i just think i think this is i think actually what you're talking about is a star trek beautiful version of abundance in the world if these rare earth minerals create SPEAKER_32: unlimited energy and you're energy independent you look at the world differently and and joe we certainly in america look at the world differently as we're all gen extras here basically we look at the world much differently now since we have energy independence than we did under bush and and these uh foreign wars you know in the middle east yeah i mean listen yeah and i i SPEAKER_203: am i'm one of the most optimistic people i call myself the american optimist jason as you know SPEAKER_438: none of us have been on yet yeah i mean you had sacks on have you had sacks on at least american SPEAKER_440: opportunity people people are too busy to come on i'll try to get you all right so you're all for SPEAKER_94: four with besties got it okay all right i gotta work on it listen i i would love ai to get to the point i think it will where it starts to accelerate growth where this energy stuff can be mined more easily but until i'd say until we're at at least five six percent growth because we are going to the post-care city world we don't know what it's coming i do still think global trade really matters i do think global security for ourselves like we don't want random people with nuclear proliferation so there are issues that are going to affect all of us but i think SPEAKER_203: dave makes a really great point that it is becoming less important over time it's true let's talk about SPEAKER_228: this chat gpt i guess they came out with 4.5 it was such a dud i didn't even realize that they launched SPEAKER_32: it chamathi you monitored this or freeberg did you try it because i've been using grok as my default now then gemini then chat gpt that's my order right now because i wanted to see how good grok is and man grok is it's really caught up and i don't have an interest here in uh you know i don't have equity in any of these companies i own google in the public markets but i don't know the other two but pretty amazing yeah what do you think of this 4.5 dud and what what it means tomorrow well i use them in SPEAKER_138: in the company building context and specifically at 80 90 because of what we're building and what i would tell you is that i think anthropic just continues to do an incredible job i think claude 37 SPEAKER_48: is it just kicks ass oh you're you're on claude for what you're using on the back end yeah we use it SPEAKER_138: for a lot of automated code generation and its models on code generation i think are just exceptional it they're they are the best in market then what i would say is as a consumer i've mostly flipped my usage to grok 3. yeah and the reason is that it's in line with where i consume most of my information SPEAKER_143: it's elegantly integrated inside of x it's yeah to point this out to explain to people when you're SPEAKER_32: in twitter now x on the top right hand of a tweet there's an x ai button when you click it it just gives you the full context of the tweet so i was reading one of dara's from uber's tweets about autonomy i guess they added two more partners when i clicked it it gave me more than i ever could want SPEAKER_19: it was almost like a deep research of the context of a very short retweet he did and i didn't have to cut and paste and form a question so owning a social network equals instant and here we're going SPEAKER_32: to show it with joe lonsdale's where he says hey listen the you know the the crypto tax feels like taxation to me and look it goes and finds four web pages you can see there it tells you which ones wikipedia and um cnbc amongst them and then it gives joe's position this is like very elegant there's David Friedberg: this is super elegant and i think there's a small tweak to this okay that elon and i were talking Chamath Palihapitiya: about actually on x which is then just the nature of being able to analyze a post for its veracity becomes really valuable that extra little thing when it's available i think will have a really big impact on how people use it in this context so i use grok for the consumer applications for all of SPEAKER_138: our code generation we're using sonnet 3.7 it's exceptional which is anthropics which is doing a SPEAKER_43: major round of funding got it okay yeah and and i think like the the thing with the gpt 4.5 is that SPEAKER_138: it's kind of like good now here's here's a tangent let me just do a small little rant which is Chamath Palihapitiya: we're at the bleeding edge of where these benchmarks are useful meaning part of why jason maybe you weren't necessarily watching this as closely and i think where the media and the sense making organizations get confused is they don't know now what to say because they'll say hey look at how i did on sweet bench look at how i did on imo look at how i did on amy and the problem the dirty little secret of these model makers is that these guys are so trained on the evals that they're overfitting yeah and all this overfitting basically makes it pretty unreliable and so what this means to translate into plain SPEAKER_19: english for humans listening is they basically are optimizing for the tests that are the benchmark which is kind of like a person in high school or you know optimizing for the sats it doesn't mean they're going to be a great student but it may mean that they just spent a lot of time taking sat Chamath Palihapitiya: tests yeah so we have we have one problem which is that i think it would be very valuable for the industry that it be solved which is that we need to have extremely difficult and always changing third-party independent verifiable benchmarks oh that's a great number one like the safety SPEAKER_458: tasks for cars is that's not run by the companies got it less about safety though more about capability Chamath Palihapitiya: sure and i think if we're reporting on that then these leaps will mean something more than what they are today right so got it when alibaba pushes gwen this week it was an exceptional model it's probably one of the better open source if not the best open source model out there deep seeks i think SPEAKER_459: is also quite good it doesn't get any press anymore so i think we're starting to get to this place Chamath Palihapitiya: where there's such abundance that actually people are just kind of like overwhelmed with all the choice and they don't know how to differentiate this is like a hundred michelin star restaurants SPEAKER_19: opening up in your city you just don't have enough meals to eat it we're we're basically drowning in abundance to freeberg's point we i don't think we understand exactly how golden how gold in this golden SPEAKER_325: age is in terms of technology distribution becomes really important i think that's why absolutely we Chamath Palihapitiya: discussed inside of x is very valuable but also i think google just said that they're going to drop an ai button right into the front door core search page i don't know if you guys saw that but no SPEAKER_19: google's doing it when you're logged in you will get the snippet at the top inside of youtube they're SPEAKER_32: doing summaries of the chat and the comments and then you think about what meta could do you know they already put the ai box up there but you know they'll they'll knock some of that off no SPEAKER_301: i'm obviously on the google front door like google.com does anyone use that anymore well i mean google SPEAKER_66: searches are still going but and facebook is about to launch a competitor to chat and crock yeah well they're going to do a straight up a standalone app and the thing that they are so good at is whenever they launch an app it doesn't matter when they launch it they'll just get it to a billion people SPEAKER_32: oh yeah i mean that that is uh super true all this i think leads to so much abundance what i'm i'm seeing in startups i was the first investor in a company called SPEAKER_160: superhuman very elegant software luxury software for email productivity give it a shot what he did was SPEAKER_17: well i didn't mean that's a super plug here but anyway i i'm so in love with the company and the founder i just had them on speaking startups he's like one of the best product minds i've ever met SPEAKER_32: keep extraordinary and superhuman now because it's gotten so cheap to do ai that they are composing in this beta i'm in all of the replies to your email in real time on the back end and you can see potential drafts they summarize everything even if you never read the summary that would be cost prohibitive six to twelve months ago but now it's a no-brainer because they're paid software it's like so this is going to get very interesting very quick joe your thoughts on this uh abundance yeah i'm SPEAKER_94: actually building something on email like you said that works with your team to automatically kind of SPEAKER_92: like you know create reports on everything that comes in and router for you because a lot of our friends when you're a ceo you basically become a traffic cop it's actually the email is going to SPEAKER_203: do it for you it's gonna be really nice but listen i'm invested in grok 3 and i'm biased towards elon but you know a lot of our companies will build on top of multiple of them as well and yeah i think you're talking about cogen i'm you know in cognition i think a lot of my companies using dev and it's actually just like crushing it this stuff's getting like 10 15 better every month it's uh it's really amazing it's good for companies like that i'm mostly that level where i'm like using all of them or using a bunch of them that so i love the fact there's all this competition because this makes it cheaper and better for me for all my companies SPEAKER_391: i'm building and and it's it's not slowing down is the other piece of this no it's getting better SPEAKER_480: it's scary actually i thought i would i thought i would asymptote and it hasn't so no that's SPEAKER_384: that's the part that's so fascinating to me and then there's a really interesting ripple that i SPEAKER_32: don't know if you guys are aware of yet but journalists who have been losing their jobs at a tremendous pace are now being hired by data aggregators to come in look at queries let's say SPEAKER_19: you had an expertise in agriculture friedberg they'll pay you and i actually saw one of these job descriptions 40 bucks an hour to sit there and answer questions about agriculture look at answers and refine them and do reinforcement learning we're going to have a new job class which is people who train ais and people who fact check ais and refine ais and this could be a 50 to 150 000 a year job because every time you make the eye a little better everybody on the planet gets to benefit from it this is an extraordinary new job career i don't know what it's going to be SPEAKER_32: called reinforcement learner i don't know freeberg you get the last take here great job on the abundance angle which just pushed a really great discussion here wrap us up with your thoughts on SPEAKER_53: these llms and the pace of ai i just agree with chamath i think it's like you got a lot of great stuff here it's changing every week i'm not paying attention to the details anymore new models come out every week this is like when the internet launched new websites you know like this is this is carrying us forward it's impossible to dissect and predict what's going to win when and why right now what are SPEAKER_485: you um obsessed with in the ai front is there are there things i use chat gpt research a lot SPEAKER_47: the deep research right where it fires up a bunch of web pages okay and you're paying that means SPEAKER_114: the 200 bucks a month or you have 200 a month yeah yeah i find it very good yeah and then um we build everything at ohalo on gcp and we've run a bunch of different models SPEAKER_488: that's google's cloud for people who don't know that right now yeah and then we run models they're SPEAKER_329: incredible yeah yeah lots of different tools but it's awesome hey as we wrap here we're following SPEAKER_462: our muse here at all in whatever the besties are most interested in we are going to bring you the SPEAKER_19: audience along with us so freeberg and i have been obsessed with content creation and media so we're doing a little media summit at south by southwest apologies that it's sold out and then chamath you SPEAKER_32: know he likes this f1 he's a big f1 fan i've never been i'm really excited that we're going to be throwing the best party you're not invited at f1 saturday may 4th i am coming i'm securing the bag SPEAKER_491: there's you're not there's only room for as long as i get the bag i'll be outside you know what i'll SPEAKER_90: just go to 11 give me my bag and i'll go play a tournament i'll go to 11 and have a steak and SPEAKER_19: that's it's a it's a it's a club i'll get i'll pop some bottles at 11 while you guys are f1 you can SPEAKER_40: photoshop me in but the fans can come and our community can come allin.com events for all the details and if you want to party on saturday night big party it's gonna be fun we're throwing a big SPEAKER_148: party in miami around f1 and we're gonna do a little stage show beforehand because oh nice and SPEAKER_114: we're gonna we're gonna celebrate my birthday because i'm not gonna be able to make it in june SPEAKER_90: can i wear my apple watch can somebody loan me a nice watch for f1 i can't show up with an apple SPEAKER_173: watch anybody kind of you're not allowed to wear an apple watch to f1 okay i'm gonna put my apple SPEAKER_336: watch in my in my uh draw i've never been to one i want to watch that cost 25 to 75k what's a good SPEAKER_43: starter watch for jacal that's like an appetizer that's what my watch has as a watch god your SPEAKER_499: watches watches this watch thing what should i buy for 100 dimes what do you got there you can get a SPEAKER_437: decent patek for 100 now it's like they've gone down yeah it's yeah i mean everything's collapsing SPEAKER_503: like she should not be able to snipe something here it's deflation thanks to trump and ai right SPEAKER_43: whatever somebody give me a suggestion get a good mechanical watch not an automatic a mechanic anybody SPEAKER_32: wants to sponsor me for watches and get a mention here on the show i will have the hell out of SPEAKER_301: that jason at calacanis.com for life i just got a text from swatch and tudor oh swatch watch i used to SPEAKER_17: bear actually in the 80s i don't know freeberg definitely had a ton of those casio watches right did you have the casio where you would uh do your tell us about your casio is a great watch that's SPEAKER_490: it no i'm talking about him with the calculator watch i had that it was i remember it was fifty SPEAKER_123: dollars it was a really big deal to it was fifty dollars and it was worth it you play the game SPEAKER_512: you're starting to stop it as fast as you could that was totally exactly you remember that yeah SPEAKER_513: i had one on each wrist oh i was doubling down i recently bought a g-shock on amazon as kind of SPEAKER_342: like a memento to hold up and my freaking daughter stole the g-shock it's apparently yeah it's a cool SPEAKER_291: we can all bet on this what calculator do you have on your desk right now how many how many calculators are on your desk now how many can you reach how many casios are within reach there's only one calculator SPEAKER_81: that matters maybe one for me yeah okay hp 17b there's only one calculator what are you talking SPEAKER_522: about i got my t89 still 89 for me oh now you just told me how how you're younger than me joe now i SPEAKER_268: know you're like four years younger yeah that's true privilege actually it was the 81 82 transition SPEAKER_527: that was like a big deal yeah you know what i was doing when you guys found your calculator i can't even SPEAKER_210: imagine i was in mckinley park in bay ridge getting to second base all right enough all in.com events did the guy consent absolutely absolutely he's a really hot dude please we we have two SPEAKER_17: genders folks there's an executive order i read it all right all right my trump grade for the week is c for chaos a for effort with uh a for effort with doge let's try to get back to a b president trump we'll see you all next time on the all in five boys thanks john thanks guys that's fun bye SPEAKER_168: bye bye all right everybody we're suited up we're suited up because the czar the wolf of the white SPEAKER_534: house is here my brother david sachs we were trying to get you on the program you were going to make a drop-in to talk about all this great crypto news coming out of the white house and uh let's face it this was a um some people saying chaotic some people say intense this is a pretty amazing intense week for the administration so we'll get into a little bit of that but you're here specifically to talk about the crypto reserve so welcome back to your program the all-in podcast david sachs SPEAKER_536: good to be back i see that you've suited up here yeah i mean i figured i was for people who uh SPEAKER_537: weren't here for the pre-show i get on sax is wearing a white shirt and a tie i'm wearing a blazer and a white shirt so i'm like ah i gotta go put a tie on he's like ah jake i'll wear a blazer i gotta go get a blazer so then we came back and here we are and uh well look i i just have to correct one thing SPEAKER_539: i think it's been a very smooth week at the white house the president has lived up to one of his campaign promises this is not something new i remember you go all the way back to his national speech during the campaign and he reiterated this many times that he wanted to create a strategic bitcoin reserve sometimes he called it a digital asset stockpile what we've ultimately done here is both he also in his week one e on crypto you guys remember i came on the show to talk about that he asked our president's working group on digital assets to evaluate the idea of a reserve or stockpile and we made a recommendation and this administration is moving at tech speed it's really great to work for an administration where you can actually get things done and things move quickly we made our recommendation and then we work with the lawyers to implement it and president signed it last night SPEAKER_541: but this is fully consistent with everything he's he's always said agree on that the uh i guess the SPEAKER_534: one criticism that you're going to get when you go face the media so i might as well put it here is the order in which you're doing things sometimes mr trump is very uh expressive on the social medias which is better than let's say the previous administration which just wasn't available and and in cognitive decline so i guess the the the question of he announces something and then you guys explain it deeper is that the optimal way to do this should we not worry about it should you come out with like more official stuff i guess that's the move fast break things that we are used to in silicon valley but that people you know whether it's in business are maybe a little concerned SPEAKER_545: about that things are maybe different now in the white house and in how we're running our government SPEAKER_546: maybe you can expand on that have you ever considered that maybe you just had an overreaction SPEAKER_547: to a tweet well okay so if we're going to place the blame on me well i'm just saying that i wasn't the SPEAKER_534: other only one the original crypto ogs were like wait a second why is he picking these three and not these three you know so that made a lot of people putting myself out of it like whoa what's going SPEAKER_551: on here is he picking favorites and that's i guess everybody's big concern so maybe you could SPEAKER_539: dissuade yeah we're not picking favorites obviously except i will say this we do think bitcoin is special and i can get into the reasons why that's a great thing yeah well i mean bitcoin's the original cryptocurrency it's the first one it's the only one that doesn't have an issuer right it's it's very decentralized it's you know in crypto they call this the immaculate conception we don't really know how it got here we don't know who satoshi is it's almost mystical you would say yes it's the most valuable one it has a two trillion dollar market cap and it's the most secure it's ever been hacked right so we're now you know over 15 years into this journey and there's been a lot of people who've been skeptical along the way and there's been a lot of ups and downs but here it is i mean i remember back in 2011 i think it's the first time i bought a bitcoin i think it was at 120 now it's at 90 000 again there have been all sorts of wild swings along the way but this thing just keeps keeps chugging along and you can think of that two trillion dollar market cap is like a two trillion dollar bug bounty if there was a way to hack this there's every incentive in the world and by hack i mean like to double spend create basically counterfeit bitcoin i guess would be SPEAKER_554: the way for people to think about it and so this is a miracle it hasn't been compromised i think we SPEAKER_539: can all say that well i don't know if it's a miracle i think it's exceptional design sure and so i think i think what you could say is that it's been tested in a very robust way and there's been every incentive to basically break the encryption and it continues to chug along and so i think the price has gone up as the protocol has gotten more acceptance and this is another point is that bitcoin is most widely accepted as a store of value throughout the world yeah so we do believe it should be treated special now that being said we're also creating the digital asset stockpile so SPEAKER_556: all the other yeah explain the difference between these two so there's a digital asset stockpile SPEAKER_534: that's the picker and then on the other side there's a strategic reserve for bitcoin because we do acquire bitcoin we the united states of america when we seize from terrorists you know criminals etc we do seize these and then we often make the mistake of liquidating them when maybe we should be holding SPEAKER_539: them yeah so explain that architecture so we have the reserve and we have the stockpile so the reserve is just bitcoin the goal is long-term preservation think of it as like a digital fort knox for digital gold we want to put the digital gold in there we want to keep it secure we never want to sell it that's the goal of the reserve and you're right that we've made the mistake in the past of selling this stuff at one point in time we had about 400 000 bitcoin on the federal balance sheet we sold roughly half of that for something like 360 million dollars total if we had held all of that it would be worth just that the portion we sold would be worth over 17 billion so we made this mistake of prematurely selling bitcoin we should have held it we don't want to make that mistake with regard to the rest of it we think there's around 200 000 coins left on the federal balance sheet but the truth is that nobody knows because we've never done a proper audit so part of what this executive order provides is that we're going to do for the first time a government-wide accounting of the digital SPEAKER_534: assets that we actually have so and if digital assets emerge in some department i don't know the fbi sees it some the cia sees it some i don't know which organization winds up having them they're going to be legally required to report that and then put them in the reserve well they'll they'll be legally SPEAKER_539: required to report it and then they'll go in the reserve if there's a final adjudication so you know obviously if those coins could go back as restitution to victims or if the person who they were seized from wins their court case and gets them back they're not going to go into the federal reserve but if there's been a final adjudication and a final forfeiture yes those will go into the reserve anyway that's bitcoin okay so then you got the stockpile let me just talk about that so first of all like i said we don't know exactly what digital assets the federal government has i've seen reports that it might have for example 50 000 eth which is ethereum but again we need to get to the bottom of that when we figure out exactly what the assets are we're going to move them into the digital stockpile the purpose of the stockpile is responsible stewardship it's a place for safekeeping it's a centralized you could say account under the direction of the secretary of the treasury and the secretary of the treasury will figure out how to maximize the values of these holdings now there's a couple of important differences between stockpile and reserve so one is the reserve the executive order actually provides that the secretary of the treasury will not sell the bitcoin okay we're we're prohibited from selling the bitcoin there's no such prohibition with respect to the stockpile if the secretary of the treasury decides that's in the long-term interest of the us to rebalance the portfolio or change the portfolio the secretary has the discretion to do that SPEAKER_534: okay which makes sense because there's a long tail of crypto we might see something that we don't have the ability to protect the predict the future and we don't have the staff to sit there and look at these assets every day like a fund manager would and say huh what do we do with these what percentage should it be of the overall stockpot of the overall holdings so maybe the decision with SPEAKER_317: the theorem is hey this thing's waning we just put it into bitcoin because we know that's the more SPEAKER_539: solid one yeah that's what i'm reading into it yeah i mean i think that that that's that's largely fair i mean look i think that the stockpile should be subject to good portfolio management right unfortunately we have a secretary of the treasury who is an extremely successful former hedge fund manager so he's going to figure out the best way to manage these assets and we give him the flexibility to do portfolio management whereas he has to live and die with what he does he has to make those SPEAKER_550: decisions and that's going to be you know um part of how he's evaluated by the president so SPEAKER_558: hopefully he's going to be sharp about that right but the reserve is different right the reserve is just digital for knox now there's one other important difference between stockpile and reserve SPEAKER_539: so with respect to to reserve the the eo provides that the secretaries that i'm talking about treasury and commerce they're allowed to figure out strategies to accumulate more bitcoin for the reserve if those strategies are budget neutral and don't cost the taxpayer anything okay so it's possible that we could i'm not saying that we will but it gives them it authorizes them to acquire more bitcoin if they can figure out a way to do it that doesn't impact the federal budget or the deficit or taxpayers right SPEAKER_575: okay well i had a very simple suggestion for this which i'll uh float up the flagpole here and see SPEAKER_534: what you think you probably we've talked about it on previous all ends before you want it how about a simple crypto tax you know crypto wants to be legal you're the crypto czar crypto wants to be regulated they want the rules they want the rails simple suggestion from your bestie why don't we charge every transaction in the united states 0.01 just about one bit in that native currency so you want to trade some solana for ethereum for xrp whatever you know put in whatever names you want there the government says hey you want to have a great vibrant system here we're going to need to take just the most modest of taxes de minimis in fact in the native crypto and put it in the stockpile SPEAKER_562: this seems to me like a very that's always how taxes start is that they're very they're described as very being very modest you know when the income tax started it only applied to like a thousand SPEAKER_539: americans yes the legislators swore up and down that it would never be applied to middle class people so i don't particularly like the idea of new taxes even if it's it's promised that they just won't affect people very much that sounds burdensome to me but look we have very successful this would SPEAKER_534: and just so you know this is would be like more like a sales tax that would be handled by coinbase would be handled by robinhood but it would be handled by those platforms they would administer it it would be a transactional tax not an income tax so if you have a bunch it's not a wealth tax and David Sacks: a seizing tax but i'll let you put it on it yeah if you can convince if you can convince the secretary of the commerce or the secretary of treasury to run with your idea then great it could potentially SPEAKER_539: happen i mean they have the flexibility to figure out budget neutral ways to accumulate bitcoin i don't know what those ways are going to be but they're creative they're very successful David Sacks: businessmen and if they figure out a way to do this then it can be considered that's the point okay SPEAKER_534: well i'll be in the commissary later having lunch with you you can introduce me um so let you let me just give you a fastball here well we'll see if it gets in the strike zone the appearance of impropriety is what people are concerned with the picking of winners and losers president trump was the crypto president he went and he gave that famous speech i'm gonna get rid of gary gensler we're gonna make it legal and to his credit he has fulfilled that promise which means hey the donor class on that side said we're gonna back the crypto president not the anti-crypto team which means a lot of people who are on the twitter and the socials have donated a lot they have a lot of holdings so this appearance which you've now i would give you credit have cleaned up here hey there's two different things going on here and we're not using taxpayer money we get all that but the appearance here is SPEAKER_550: hey maybe somebody's going to benefit of course that they came after you first for that without the facts you were very clear you cleared all your positions you sold everything you divested so let's make that clear to the dum-dums who are just trying to say that you are personally let me address that SPEAKER_539: yeah please because this is ridiculous yeah well people came out right away and were saying that somehow i was engaged in a scheme to pump my bags or to basically create exit liquidity for myself and billionaire stuff like that you have to understand that those accusations i mean they're accusing me of a crime and a serious crime and they're doing it with no evidence whatsoever so these things are basically it's borderline slander slander and that's slanderous yeah i would say in any event what they didn't know and what i then proceeded to put out there is that i sold all my cryptocurrency prior to day one of the administration because i didn't want to even have the appearance of a conflict and by the way i could have waited i didn't have to do it like that but i decided to do it and take it upon myself to do that because you just know that when it comes to crypto there's going to be a lot of fluctuations in the market you never want someone to be able to point at one of those fluctuations and say somehow that the cryptos are benefited from that and create a conspiracy theory which is exactly what basically happens so first of all i got rid of all my cryptocurrency prior to day one SPEAKER_593: craft also sold and craft is the venture firm that you funded that's done a lot of great work uh SPEAKER_539: supporting founders here in right so we basically sold i think it was around 200 million dollars of crypto of which around 85 million dollars was personally attributable to myself and we cleared that before day one paid taxes on it and basically so there wouldn't be a conflict so then the smear shifted in another direction was okay well maybe he doesn't own crypto okay but he's in crypto funds okay and so they pointed to you know bitwise and multi-coin capital and i was also in blockchain capital and so then the fund managers came out and one by one all said actually david called us over two months ago and said he's gonna need to divest from our funds and so we also did that so yeah you know i think basically they've kind of given up on this but look SPEAKER_534: it's very easy why let the facts get in the way of a good slander seriously you know full disclosure you know you when you saw me doing the sequoia scouts program said hey why don't you do a fund i'll be the anchor i'll be your first lp but i mean one of the most generous things you've done in our relationship and i had to have a call with you you know weeks ago and say hey okay you're gonna divest okay fine no problem no it's not not a problem for me you sell the assets to somebody else so the way people understand how this mechanically works when you're in a fund you have no sacks cannot tell me what to do in the fund he just put money in it like i put money in other people's funds they go and invest and 10 years later you get a return and hopefully that return in a venture firm or private equity firm beats the markets the public markets or whatever but then you can also SPEAKER_598: sell that interest to somebody else so mechanically and then this takes time and you have to sell SPEAKER_534: it at 50 percent 25 off and it's painful you will lose i estimate you're going to lose you know i don't want to be gratuitous here but eight nine figures by serving the country for a SPEAKER_598: couple years and not only that the great irony of this is the one thing holding back the industry is regulation over regulation of ai and no clear regulation in crypto you're going in to fix the two things that were number one and two on all of our agendas in silicon valley in terms of getting returns the next four years so the sacrifice you're making is extraordinary and you're making it a better environment a regulated environment for the rest of us to do commerce so i just want to SPEAKER_539: point out that you're losing like double here right well let me let me just underscore something SPEAKER_583: you said for your service and i don't know how much to pay how much they paying you for this job what do you get paid like 50 grand 100 grand i'm an unpaid consultant to the government really is that SPEAKER_541: actually accurate you're getting home no i don't want i don't want anything you money you know of course it is but it's it's it's an honor to serve and it's a honor to be asked to serve and in particular it's an honor to serve this president because he really wants to make the country great SPEAKER_539: again so that's why i'm doing it but yeah look i think it's a it's a lazy and stupid narrative to say that the reason why someone who's already successful in business goes into government is to somehow make more money i was making money before this involves a substantial disruption of my business interests and i have to divest a lot of those business interests and in divesting i have to be either a taxpayer or i have to take a significant discount and it costs you money so you know it's just a lazy narrative that people create but there's no truth to it and just to underscore point that that you made a second ago you were one of the funds i divested from not because you're a crypto fund but because you might have a crypto position we went through i think the launch funds holdings and i think there was something crypto related in there and so one or two that pivoted SPEAKER_589: into crypto yes right so i just didn't want to have any problem there so listen it's this is the SPEAKER_534: nature of the politics we have people are you know it gets very personal you know that better than anybody and so you know that's why you're here and uh hopefully we can clean this all up and uh let people know that hey the intent here is good so just to go back to one other point you said about not SPEAKER_539: picking winners and losers i i think that's a very important comment that you made that i see as fundamental to my job i mean look i think we do think that bitcoin is special for the reasons i said beyond that we do not want to be in the business of picking and choosing winners in in the space and again if some other digital asset could prove that it's as decentralized and as secure and as widely accepted as a store of value as bitcoin then maybe it could be elevated in the same way that bitcoin has i mean i'm laying out the criteria for you but look beyond that we don't want to be picking winners and losers in the space and that's not my job i mean my job is not to to be a regulator or to anoint which ones are good or bad it's to basically be a policy advisor for innovation and i'll just tell you the way that i see the you know all the digital assets in the space is that what's fundamental is disclosure if you're an issuer of a digital asset you need to disclose you know all the material facts about what you're doing and those facts have to be accurate you can't lie my view is that if you if you the issuer lie about something the government should come down on you like a ton of bricks because that's fraud okay but as long as you do this in an honest way people should be able to trade these things i understand that you think a lot of them are garbage you might be right you could express that view in a trade but as long as everyone has been above board in terms of disclosure people should have the right to trade these things and some are going to make money so we're going to lose money it's about the freedom to basically to trade to hold these assets the government doesn't want to get in the way of that it just wants to make sure that SPEAKER_613: the information is out there that is honest and if people lie in order to profit i'm all in favor of SPEAKER_543: going after them well and you know we already have a regulated market as an analogy and when you tell SPEAKER_534: a lie and you sell a share in a company whether it's a private or a public company the sec has a term for that it's called securities fraud and we you know have this new type of device it's very innovative it could be an nft it could be a trading card it could be an actual utility token where you burn it in use of a service or it could be anything it could be whatever the person describes it as but what's important is there's an entity with a group of people i think you would agree who have said we have ownership of this we're incorporated here in the united states not in panama not in the bvi not in some you know other place where maybe they're a little faster or looser with regulations you got to be here in the us maybe you have to be insured in some way maybe there has to be a board like there does in delaware or in an llc there has to be some person where the buck stops and if you lie while committing a transaction or taking money for an asset it would be securities fraud and yes people will come down on you like a ton of bricks and if you promote things and you don't disclose it well we have rules about that as well we saw many celebrities get pinched last time uh for tweeting about cryptocurrencies and and this is the stuff that i think has to stop i think it should feel more like what we do in angel investing the private companies and in public companies so that's your job when are we going to see you know that framework emerge because here you're only like 40 50 days into this i think when we see the actual bones of a framework so if i want to do j coin and i want to make an angel investing coin or i want to do something fun an nft collection for all in or something when will we have the actual rules of the road and that and that's going to be multiple agencies right yeah what SPEAKER_558: you're describing is is known in washington or the the um the area of policy that you're describing is SPEAKER_539: known as market structure and market structure is about providing a clear framework for market participants it would define what is a security what's a commodity what's simply a collectible you know it's property but it's not a security and then what are the rules for each category that's known as market structure there is a bill that passed the last congress in the house but biden basically he didn't veto it but he basically he and the democrats he stopped in the senate the democrats did it was called fit 21 and it was authored by french hill who's now the chairman of the house financial services committee so we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill probably in the next few weeks i don't think i'm breaking any news by saying this i think people expect it and that's going to provide the framework for market structure it's going to provide a lot of the definitions that you're talking about now i agree with your sentiment okay but i will say that i might have a different view than you have what is the security what's not i mean to me collectibles are not securities but if it's a collectible you got to disclaim that look this has no intrinsic value right that's a collectible think about a baseball card a baseball card is a piece of cardboard it has no intrinsic value but the value comes from basically other collectors being willing to buy it from you and you could just say that that's irrational whatever but so look i think as long as people disclaim that this coin has no intrinsic value they should be able to issue meme coins it's a separate question why people would want to buy them but look that's very in my view that's very different than someone who goes out as an issuer and says i'm issuing a token or a coin that has lots of functionality and has lots of value and you'll hear some of these guys even say that hey our token is more valuable than bitcoin you should value it more highly well if you're SPEAKER_571: promising that and you're saying that it's going to have certain functionality you better be telling SPEAKER_554: the truth about it yeah then we start getting into the howey test and people can go look that up if they want what i will say is there's an educational process that has to come in here which we've gone SPEAKER_534: through as the united states when people would buy interest in mines people would buy interest in gold claims oil fields and that's when a lot of these regulations came out in the 20s around accreditation we've spoke about this before it's a pet peeve of mine but i think there should be an educational framework here and i think there should also be some nuance that you could work on specifically with this group of being clear that when you have a ticker symbol associated with something or you do charts associated with something you know it starts to smell like a duck it looks like a duck it's quacking like a duck but then in the terms of services says hey this is a collectible i think there needs to be some ground rules which maybe it says hey these need to be presented in a certain way at the top level so the nuance of disclosure is so important when i tweet something if it was an advertiser or a sponsor of all in or this week in startups or any influencer or you did that would you do this and you said i love you know this brand you and i both were well you were an investor needs to buy them if we were to tweet about that as investors we don't have to disclose but if we were paid for that the ftc has rules you have to put this is a paid partnership you cannot confuse consumers and i think that's where you're going to have to do a little bit of cleanup work and structure as well as the disclosure and how this appears and then also maybe the educational system so you know if you want to own a firearm if you want to drive a car if you want to be you know a beautician and listen we can talk about over regulation you got to take tests SPEAKER_624: man it would just be so much better if consumers could take you know like a 50 question test just to SPEAKER_534: say hey they understand what we're talking about here in terms of diversification so they don't yolo their entire mortgage and house into one crypto so what are your thoughts on those two issues disclosures how it's presented and then accreditation and maybe a path to accreditation sophisticated investor test is how i refer to it for all americans because 90 of people can't SPEAKER_539: participate in private companies your thoughts well disclosure is the key like i said i mean these projects should have to disclose certain things i think for example the token cap table should be disclosed who are the great of the insiders how much do they have when are they selling you know that's that's information the market should always know in my opinion easily done with the technology SPEAKER_556: lauded by the crypto community the blockchain this could just be on the blockchain this was always SPEAKER_534: the problem we had as venture capitalists with hey this is a token project who owns the tokens where are they when can when can i sell when can you sell the insiders yes yeah i don't think you have SPEAKER_538: to disclose everyone who owns a token that could be hard to comply with but i think you should have SPEAKER_539: to disclose you should have to disclose the insiders and their their sales plans and their lockups and and and i would also say how new tokens get created i mean if this is a fully centralized token where they can dismiss more people need to know that because there's no scarcity right but if there's somehow an enforcement mechanism and there's enforced scarcity then that's a different story so yeah these things have to be disclosed and by the way i think the market structure bills will do that there's a version of this in fit 21 last congress i think it'll be the next one and moreover the sec is looking right now at these rules and they're going to create their own SPEAKER_534: frameworks they're doing an excellent job sec chief i was doing some research on him he's a really pro SPEAKER_612: actually more americans being able to invest in private private equity etc and he's given speeches SPEAKER_539: on it in the past so the person who's been nominated for the new chair of the sec is named paul atkins and he he has not been confirmed yet the confirmation hearings still need to happen separately hester purse who's a commissioner at the sec is in charge of i know hester i've had her on uh this weekend starts a couple times she's great she's excellent she's very well informed and she's take very sharp taking the lead on all the crypto related stuff so i trust her and i trust the sec to produce those detailed frameworks that you're talking about yeah i think that my role is call it innovation policy advisor is just to kind of make sure that we have the big picture right and i'm i'm very confident that the sec the cftc and the legislators are going to figure out the balance SPEAKER_534: here sex you got to go really proud of the work here uh congratulations on cleaning this all up and presenting a really thoughtful plan that we can all ask you hard questions on appreciate you taking the hard questions here on uh yeah podcast um and uh good luck when you do the rest of the media circus i wonder if i'm going to be the hardest questioner of you i i hope so and uh for people asking yes i'm wearing a suit because i am now joining the administration big announcement i'm the official podcaster the official moderator of the uh trump white house i'm just kidding people will SPEAKER_641: actually believe you all right man listen i got it i got it jokes but good to see you all right love SPEAKER_534: you brother we'll see you soon cheers all right bye all right everybody i'm obviously super conflicted sex is my friend of 20 years plus we're partners here on the online podcast and of course i'm rooting for the administration but you know i got that journalist blood in me i always want to call balls and strikes i'm gonna as you just heard ask hard questions so if you're wondering where i'm coming from i'm going to ask hard questions to my friends because they're doing important work for the american people and for the rest of the people on the planet candidly these are important decisions that sax is going to have to make about crypto ai that elon's making with doge i'm going to ask hard questions that's the way it's going to be and so i'm really excited that they're coming on here they're going to take the hard questions for me but they're done in a certain spirit which is yes they're my friends but they got important jobs so they do have to ask answer the hard questions for the american people and i'm also curious and we're all curious where they're coming from so i feel so privileged that they're choosing to SPEAKER_657: come on all in to face those hard questions we'll see you all next time