SPEAKER_00: all right everybody welcome to your favorite podcast in the world's number one podcast the all-in podcast it's episode 1790 oh wait that's just how it feels welcome to episode 179 with me today of course is your sultan of science i don't know if that's a movie background or it's just

SPEAKER_01: his favorite vegetables what's going on there what's the crop that's ai generated it's ai

SPEAKER_03: generated crop okay i'm trying ai backgrounds i'm going to try it out for a while with different

SPEAKER_01: crops your fans are going to be crushed that you're not doing deep movie polls with us of course man about town dc new products being launched david sax the rain man yeah how you doing buddy good good yeah good week lots going on yeah yeah definitely a good week shabbat palihapitiya chairman dictator

David Friedberg: he puts the chairman dictator i would like to take this opportunity to wish

SPEAKER_08: my child a happy birthday i absolutely love you well now the rest of us look like yeah great i've

SPEAKER_14: never done that before in fact in your desk in your desk is a piece of paper with your children's names

SPEAKER_15: and their birthdays you want to pull it out i got three birthdays a year and i've never done one

SPEAKER_27: no no no but i'm saying it rarely lands on the same day today is the day today is the day today is the

SPEAKER_32: day okay today is the day congratulations child oh congratulations yeah how old chamath no gender

David Friedberg: name or any other specifications folks we can't we can't tip anybody off no pronouns no pronouns uh yes absolutely so how are they experiencing their birthday this child has experienced a wonderful life and this child is an incredible person for whom i have tremendous admiration and love and compassion and hope for the future all right and did you order them some chicken fingers i cannot comment on who

SPEAKER_32: this person is chicken fingers are you talking of course about phil hellmuth your child phil help can we please talk about last weekend's festivities in what a disaster he is oh my god

SPEAKER_48: guys just so you guys know sex we missed you last weekend we missed you last so much fun to make

SPEAKER_40: miss you on saturday night saturday night was really fun i had such a lovely time coming home to be

SPEAKER_50: totally honest with you we had a cabana set up on saturday played blackjack i miss you guys too i

SPEAKER_52: had a fomo i saw the videos it was so fun well you don't have to have too much fomo because phil sent

SPEAKER_43: the entire group chat to poker news.com they didn't know twice the flop.org poker dash updated yeah

SPEAKER_57: well he kept tweeting and he leaked every single person who's there and then he tweeted and the jet

SPEAKER_59: numbers he's like look here's me and elon elon came by for my dinner no no no it was worse than that

SPEAKER_32: no it was worth that he said i got to hang out with our guy elon for 10 minutes and 14 seconds

SPEAKER_62: he intercepted him at the valet wait what

SPEAKER_65: how many minutes 10 minutes and 14 seconds he had the exact time down to the second oh my god well

David Sacks: listen i want to wish phil helmuth a happy birthday because i did miss his 60th party yeah it's coming

SPEAKER_71: up actually it wasn't actually his birthday it was bill gurley so he just hijacked bill gurley's birth

SPEAKER_50: i also got to enjoy for my first time ever uh the experience of baccarat which i've decided is the most degen game on earth it's literally the most you just flip a coin coins it's flipping coins

SPEAKER_59: well you make betting decisions all you do in baccarat is you say bank or player and then you freak yourself out about how you flip the cards and the smartest people i know on earth they're all sitting around this table at two or three in the morning saying turn this corner this way no no no

SPEAKER_77: no no turn it this way turn it this way there's two dots and they're debating the right way to flip

SPEAKER_78: a card over no the back of the sweat is the most incredible performative act in the casino

SPEAKER_80: it's the weirdest thing yeah yeah you're right everyone's got their own little technique about how they bend the card it's all destroyed by the end of the deck they don't they get thrown out

SPEAKER_89: i go lengthwise i go like this and i try to see oh like you're curling your mustache like an evil and then you call it oh my god no spotter if you see it

SPEAKER_59: no spotter or two across and then you get to decide whether the bank turns over their cards and

SPEAKER_95: it what when they turn you lose it then you lose a small house and then you're like oh let's try to

SPEAKER_59: get yeah you're convincing yourself that you have all this control and ways to change the outcome right because you're literally flipping a card it's high card well it's even worse than that you're

SPEAKER_80: basically sitting down at the casino's table and then they tell you whether you've won or lost and in order to convince yourself that that's not what's going on you have to play with the card but really they just tell you you either win or lose

SPEAKER_102: let me tell you the smartest guys we know staring at the window at the little machine that tells you whether bank or player one and they're studying it

SPEAKER_59: doing an analysis it's got to go black help you's like i'm calling it now bank bank player player player and all the guys are like let's do it and then everyone heads heads tails so how

SPEAKER_83: hellmuth asked us to play in the high stakes poker game on poker go so it was me hellmuth stanley sammy

SPEAKER_27: house and then gentilly and nick airball and roble so most of the guys from the house came plus

SPEAKER_112: gentilly and nick airball jennifer tilly is amazing what a great human listen to this well listen to this

SPEAKER_27: hand literally the second hand of the actual poker game gentilly is in the big blind no sorry she's under the gun she raises housing bull three bets it comes all the way around to me on the button i look and i have pocket kings oh i ship the whole cheeseburger comes back to tilly she ships house ships listen to these hands gentilly has aces jeff hausenbold has kings i have kings oh my god i've

SPEAKER_112: never seen a cooler hand like this in my life and the second in the second hand of the game anyways wow don't worry guys i came back and i won tilly she tripled up she triples up and then into lockdown

SPEAKER_119: mode the first time i ever played with her no then i stacked her right anyways well i don't

David Friedberg: want to reveal the game but it was it was wonderful this one i show up at a mutual friend of ours game

SPEAKER_121: and there's a like beautiful porsche or something in the driveway it's a really notable car and the i noticed on the license plate it says degen but it's spelled with a j and i'm like oh degenerate what

SPEAKER_123: a great license plate i wonder who's that is i go it's jennifer tilly she is so cool she's very

SPEAKER_126: charming great actress great actress great actress great movie she was in um bound that's what it was

SPEAKER_130: yeah actually you don't have to ask me twice yeah exactly toward the force what a great gangster film

SPEAKER_131: yeah with uh gina gershon i mean gina gershon that's oh my god that film that film oh my god well let's not get canceled here okay yeah um it is quite a film all right

SPEAKER_136: speaking of uh action big week the ai industrial complex is dominating our docket here apologies to biden ukraine and nikki halley but we got to go ai right now open ai launch chat gpt 4 oh 4.0 monday three days after sam wise came on all in as a programming note and we'll go to freeberg about

SPEAKER_137: this we probably made a bit of a strategical or tactical error in not postponing his apparent appearance

SPEAKER_136: in fairness uh freeberg sam wise did tell us originally he was coming on to talk about those things but then it got pushed back anything you want to add to that as a programming note because

SPEAKER_141: people are wondering what happened i've been talking with sam for a while a year about coming on

SPEAKER_03: the show and every time i see him i'm we're like hey you should come on the show he's like i want to come on the show okay let's find a date we never got a date that worked i saw him in march and he said hey i want to come on the show i said okay well come on let me know when works and a couple of weeks later he's like what about this date in may and i'm like yeah that's that's fine we can make that work he's like well i've got a big announcement we're going to be doing and i was like perfect come on the show that that sounds great and then the um the night before he asked me he told me he texted me he's like hey we're actually not going to have this announcement happen tomorrow it's going to be delayed he didn't tell me how long and i'm like well is it chat is it gpt5 he's like no it's not gpt5 and i was like okay well you know come on the show anyway because he didn't tell me when he's doing the announcement or when it's being pushed to so it didn't seem like that big a deal and i thought we were just going to be able to have a good chat anyway so it's really unfortunate i think the fact that the announcement happened two days after and he had to stay quiet about it during our interview but um that's the story i think in the future if someone says they've got a big announcement to do we should probably push them uh if they if they have to listen don't beat yourself but i don't think we're going to be doing a lot of these interviews anyway i think people clearly don't love them and it's better

SPEAKER_146: for us to just kind of hang out and talk i think i think if we had just gotten sam on the day after

SPEAKER_149: the launch of gpt4 omni as opposed to what is it three days before yeah you could have talked much

SPEAKER_03: more freely about it and it would have been great yeah it was supposed to happen same day so it's

SPEAKER_151: unfortunate this all worked out this way the other little trick is to say you can tell us under

SPEAKER_136: embargo but my understanding is they were still doing the videos over the weekend so i think those videos and stuff they were still figuring them out and so yeah lesson learned in terms of the interviews on the show just to recap for people we've done a dozen half of them have been presidential candidates sometimes they break out sometimes they don't but we follow our interest and our passion here on the pod it's got to be interesting for us too so if we think this person's going to

SPEAKER_153: be interesting we do it and yeah we understand you miss a news subject but yeah it is what it is and

SPEAKER_40: to your point a lot of the people that come on and increasingly a lot of people ask to come on because they know we're not journalists and so for all of those folks that expect us to be

SPEAKER_155: journalists that's not what we are we're for entrepreneurs we're for business people we're for friends we're for technologists we're for curious people we're for poker players but we're not for

SPEAKER_27: journalists and so we're going to ask whatever we feel like asking sometimes those things will touch a chord because it's what you wanted to have asked and sometimes we won't go to a place whether we didn't have time to or whether we forgot or whether we chose not to and i think it's important to have that disclaimer like we have day jobs and this is what we do to coalesce a bunch of information in the way

SPEAKER_157: that we're thinking about the world so we are not journalists so right i think what that means is

SPEAKER_146: that if the guest doesn't want to talk about something we're not going to start peppering

SPEAKER_149: him with gotcha questions and things like that i appeared at a conference a couple of days ago to promote glue which we'll get to and the first half of the conversation was like a normal conversation about what we were launching and then the second half was basically the reporter peppering me with

SPEAKER_80: fastball questions which is fine i knew what i was signing up for it's a totally different style it's a totally different style than coming on the podcast having a normal conversation but it's not really our job to make somebody open up if they don't want to talk what was the spiciest question

SPEAKER_160: sex that was the fastball anything come close to your head no i mean it's not worth really getting

SPEAKER_80: into you can watch it yeah i was just curious like look i i kind of like sometimes when reporters pitch me fastballs because yeah you can strike out or you can hit it out of the park yeah when they do

SPEAKER_121: that that's an important part here i i think you know as a former editor-in-chief journalist myself i sometimes like to ask i would say a challenging question in a respectful way i did that for example vague you know just clarifying his thoughts on trans and gay rights wasn't disrespectful was thoughtful

SPEAKER_165: would you consider it spicy or hardcore i don't think it was hardcore he likes to talk about us no but

SPEAKER_27: that's because you asked it from a position of curiosity you weren't trying to catch the guy no see

SPEAKER_166: the difference i'm actually interested in his opinion this is my point that's why it comes out

SPEAKER_27: differently and that's why i think people enjoy these conversations and sometimes we don't get to the other kind of answer because i'm not interested in trying to gotcha somebody that's working hard

SPEAKER_167: i always have the same conditions when i do interviews which is i don't clear questions

SPEAKER_160: and i don't let people edit it but you know everybody's got a different view on how to do interviews

SPEAKER_119: and fibula difference if you like it you like it if you like lex friedman's version or tim ferris's version or you prefer you know fox or cnn go go watch those interviews there you can have a whole range of different interviews and interview styles available to you in the media landscape we are but one sam weiss mentioned on the pod last week that the next big model might not be called gpt5

SPEAKER_121: so on monday they launched gpt4 oh the o stands for omni it's everything you love about tech it's faster it's cheaper it's better but from my perspective the the real show was the massive amount of progress they made on the the ui ux the o stands for omni as an omnivore it takes in audio text images even your desktop and video from your camera to inform what it's doing we can consider

SPEAKER_136: it like 360 degree ai producer nick will show a couple of videos while i describe them here before we go to the besties for the reaction to the announcement first they made great progress in solving the cb problem we mentioned last week that's where like when you siri or any of these tools you say you know hey jack gpt what's two plus two over and you have to wait and then if you talk over each other it breaks they now have that working much smoother they did an example of

SPEAKER_171: counting where they said speed up slow down they did a translator that worked really well

SPEAKER_172: i would like you to function as a translator i have a friend here who only speaks italian and i only speak english and every time you hear english i want you to translate it to italian and if you hear italian i want you to translate it back to english is that good perfect

SPEAKER_175: mike yo mi chiedo se le ballene potessero parlare cosa ci direbbero mike she wonders if whales

SPEAKER_178: could talk what would they tell us um they might ask uh how do we solve linear equations

SPEAKER_179: i think dolingo stock took a hit during that most impressive to me at least and also i had sandeep

SPEAKER_136: madra on my other podcast and we talked about it was their desktop and ios app what this app does is fascinating it watches your desktop on your macintosh or on your ipad or iphone and it does

SPEAKER_121: things like adaptive learning here's a clip of sal khan from khan academy and his son basically uh using a drawing app to do some arithmetic or geometry and it does adaptive learning and basically makes a personal coach because the app is watching his son try to solve a problem

SPEAKER_187: i'm here with my son and i'd love you to tutor him on this math problem but don't give him the answer you can ask questions and nudge him in the right direction but i really want to make sure he understands it himself and he's here in the room so you can talk to him directly can you first identify

SPEAKER_190: which sides of the triangle are the opposite adjacent and hypotenuse relative to angle alpha

SPEAKER_192: all right so i'm pretty sure this is the angle alpha right here right perfect construct now looking at

SPEAKER_190: the triangle which side do you think is the hypotenuse um remember the hypotenuse i'm not totally sure i

SPEAKER_192: think i think it might be this one but i really am not sure this side ac you're close actually side ac is

SPEAKER_190: called the adjacent side to the angle alpha the hypotenuse is the longest side of a right triangle and is directly opposite the right angle can you find which one is the hypotenuse oh okay i see so

SPEAKER_192: um i think the hypotenuse is this really long side from a to b would that be correct exactly well done

SPEAKER_121: it can also participate in zoom calls explain charts all that great stuff and so it's going to be your guide on the side it's going to be a present you know personality while you're using your apps it's really impressive i have to say so i guess let's start freeberg with your takeaways on all of these

SPEAKER_03: innovations that we saw i think it's become quite apparent that there's an evolution underway in model architecture we've and i think you may remember we talked about this briefly with sam last week but we're moving away from these very big bulky models that are released every couple of months or quarters and cost a lot of money to rebuild every time they get re-released towards a system of models so this multimodal system basically leverages several models at once that work together or that are linked together to respond to the inputs and to provide some generative output and that those individual models themselves can be continuously tuned and or continuously updated so rather than have you know hey there's this big new release that just happened this new model just got trained cost 10 million dollars to train it it's been pushed these models can be upgraded um with tuning with upgrade features and then linked together with other new smaller models that are perhaps specialized for specific tasks like doing mathematics or rendering an image or rendering a movie and so i think what we're going to see is soon more of an obfuscation of the individual models and more of this general service type approach where the updates are happening in in a more continuous fashion i think this is the first step of open ai taking that architectural approach with uh gpt4o and what's behind the curtains we don't know we don't know how many models are there we don't know how frequently they're being changed whether they're being changed through actually upgrading the parameters or whether they're being fine-tuned and so this seems to be pretty obvious if you look at this link one of the criticisms that initially came out when they released gpt4o was that there was some performance degradation and stanford actually runs this massive multitask language understanding assessment and they publish it i think daily or pretty frequently on how all the models perform and you can see the scorecard here that gpt4o actually outperforms gpt4 and so this goes counter to some of the narrative that in order to get some of the performance improvements and speed improvements they got in 4o that they actually made the model worse and it seems actually the opposite it's true that the model's gotten slightly better it still underperforms cloud3 opus which uh you can see here ranks top of these charts but there's lots of different charts all the companies published on charts they all claim that they're better than everyone else but i like stanford because it's independent chamath any thoughts uh after seeing

SPEAKER_207: it and in combination with our interview do you think chat gpt is running away with the consumer

SPEAKER_209: experience or do you think this is like neck and neck with some of the other players not to tell

SPEAKER_08: tales out of school but somebody that we all know in our group chat posted something about the fact that

SPEAKER_40: the consumer growth had stalled i don't know how they knew that that they maybe they got some data or maybe they're an investor you guys know what i'm talking about and and they said that they're trying to

SPEAKER_27: reinvigorate growth into the consumer app into at open ai i mean any insights as to why it might be plateauing in your perspective i wrote this in my annual letter but there are these phases of growth and when you look at like social networks as a perfect example friendster was magical when it was first created right and then you had my space that just ran circles around them because friendster didn't really invest the money and the quality that it took to to create a moat and then my space really wasn't able to compete so we were you know facebook we were the eighth or ninth when we showed up on the scene and we ran circles around everybody i think what it means is that there are these phases of product development which exist in many markets this market i think is going through the same thing and right now we're in the first what i would call primordial ooze phase which is everybody's kind of like running around like a chicken with their heads cut off there's all these core basic capabilities that are still so magical when you see them but we all know that five and ten years from now these things will be table stakes right and what freeberg just showed is a table of many companies and many trillions of market cap all effectively running to the same destination so i think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are standardized and then i think the real businesses get built so i will maintain my perspective here which is the quote-unquote facebook

SPEAKER_209: of ai has yet to be created okay and here it is chat gpt web visits as you can see have plateaued this

SPEAKER_167: data is similar web i would agree with you jamath it seems like the use cases and the looky loos who

SPEAKER_00: were just trying this software because they heard about it they've gone away and then we have to find

David Friedberg: actual use cases sax i'm wondering but our friend jason just to kind of complete the thought said something about the premium conversion right that's what he said i don't know how he knows that paid paid

SPEAKER_121: for well to be clear paid versus free and then right what sam said on the podcast last week was it seems like whenever they come out with something new the old stuff becomes free in my talk with sunny this week he mentioned that these new models are so much more efficient that you actually can throw the old model in the garbage garbage because it's so inefficient and these are now becoming about

SPEAKER_222: 90 cheaper every year which means every two years these things are going to be 99 cheaper and better

SPEAKER_121: yep yep and it might be that open ai sacks on a strategic level is going to make all this free or close to free and maybe just charge for multiplayer version that seems to be where it's heading you

SPEAKER_136: don't have to log in to use 3.5 you don't have to log in to use uh google serve no you do have to log in still on google services but i think these are going to just be free so on a product basis what are your thoughts and then maybe you could talk about free to pay do you think everybody in the world is going to pay 20 30 40 bucks 500 a year 200 a year to have one of these or are they just going to all

SPEAKER_145: be free well i think you're assuming there that the long-term business model of open ai is in b2c

SPEAKER_149: subscriptions and i think that's probably the least attractive business model they have available to

SPEAKER_80: them it's sort of the first one and the most obvious one because they put out chat gpt and then it's pretty easy just to roll out a premium version but in my experience b2c subscriptions it's just not a very attractive business model because consumers just aren't willing to pay a lot and they have high churn rates and there's no possibility of expansion really so i suspect they're going to move in more of a b2b direction over time because that's where the real money is and probably the way they do that is by monetizing all the apps that are built on top of it and i think that in that sense gpt4o is a really important innovation by the way the the o stands for omni which i think it stands for omni channel i think you may have said omnivore well it's kind of funny yes it's omni yeah which means

SPEAKER_151: all the different media types right current currently coming in right like there that's the difference

SPEAKER_121: it's not like you just give it an image or give it a video it's absorbing all those at the same time in

SPEAKER_232: parallel i believe that's right so there's three big innovations with this model right so one is

SPEAKER_80: omni channel which means text audio video and images second it's more conversational like it understands the tone of people talking and understand sort of sentiment in a way it didn't before and then the third thing which is really important is that it's just much faster and more performant than the previous version gpt4 turbo in the speed test they say it's twice as fast we've played with it at glue we can talk about that in a minute and it feels 10 times as fast it is much faster but it's the combination of all three of these things that really makes some magical experiences possible because when you increase the speed of processing you can now actually have conversations within a much more natural way before it was the the models were just too slow so there'd be a long delay after every prompt so now like you showed it can do things like you point the camera at a blackboard or something with math equations on it and it can walk you through how to solve that problem or two people can be talking and it does real-time translation you know there's that old saying that every star trek technology eventually becomes true they've just basically invented the whole natural language real-time yes universal translator yeah it's so anyway so those are some interesting use cases but i just think they're going to be able to unleash a whole lot of new applications and if they're metering the usage of the models and providing the best dev tools i think

SPEAKER_209: there is a business model there this thing is moving so fast they're in like leonardo dicaprio mode

SPEAKER_242: every two years they throw the old model away okay let's uh keep thank you sex but a bing

SPEAKER_80: one point on that is there are a whole bunch of startups out there that were creating virtual customer support agents and they've been spending the last couple of years working on trying to make those agents more conversational quicker more responsive i think their product roadmaps just became obsolete now that's not to say there isn't more work for them to do in workflow in terms of integrating the ai with customer support tools and doing that last mile of customizing the model for the vertical specific problems of customer support but my guess is that hundreds of millions of dollars of r d just went out the window and probably this is the best time to be creating a customer support

SPEAKER_149: agent company if you're doing it two years ago five years ago your work has just like been well

SPEAKER_121: i mean that is the thing of this pace like you know you used to have to throw away client server stuff or you know whatever you had a web-based thing you get an app out you throw away some

SPEAKER_00: of the old code but this is like every 18 months your work has been replaced if you're an app developer

SPEAKER_225: the key thing to understand is where does model innovation end and your innovation begin because

SPEAKER_80: if you get that wrong you'll end up doing a bunch of stuff that the model will just obsolete in a

SPEAKER_83: few months i think you're totally right i think that's such a really important observation that's

SPEAKER_27: why i think the incentive for these folks is going to be to push this stuff into the open source because if you if you solve a problem that's operationally necessary for your business but it isn't the core part of your business what incentive do you have to really keep investing in this for the next five and ten years to improve it you're much better off like clarna for example right we talked about the in the amazing improvement and savings that clarna had by improving customer support release it in the open source guys let the rest of the community take it over so that it's available to everybody else otherwise you're going to be stuck supporting it and then if and when you ever wanted to switch out a model you know gpt 4.0 4 to 4.0 to claude to llama it's going to be near impossible and it's going to be costly so i i also think sax the incentive to just push towards open source in this market if you will is so much more meaningful than any other market yeah i mean listen

SPEAKER_01: you you were there when i think you were there at facebook when they did the open compute project and

SPEAKER_257: they just were like oh my god just talk about talk about torching an entire market explain what it is

SPEAKER_27: so there was this moment where when you were trying to build data centers you'd have these like one new rack mounted kind of like machines that that you used and what facebook observed was there was only a handful of companies that provided it and so it was unnecessarily expensive and so facebook just designed their own and then released the specs online just kind of said here it is and they went to these taiwanese manufacturers and other folks and said please make these for your cost plus a few bucks and it was revolutionary in that market because it allowed this open platform to sort of embrace this very critical element that everybody needs and i think there's going to be a lot of these examples inside of ai because the costs are so extreme so much more than just building a data center for a traditional web app that the incentives to do it are just so so meaningful yeah and i just showed it on

SPEAKER_00: the screen sax you've actually been dancing along this line last night i was using your new slack killer

SPEAKER_262: or coexister i'm not sure it feels like a slack killer to me because i'm moving my company to it on

SPEAKER_186: over the weekend we're moving to glue and you and i were doing some very i think i may need to wet

SPEAKER_267: my beak on this one we want you to wet your beak it feels like a hundred bagger to me uh i'm in

SPEAKER_271: that's the way we're thinking about it killer-esque because jacal can you do that again in christopher

SPEAKER_273: walking voice please i need to wet my beak it feels like 100x sliding 500 wow

SPEAKER_275: sax tell me about product decisions where does the ai end and your product begin yeah well it's a good

SPEAKER_146: point i mean i think where the ai ends we want to use the most powerful ai models possible and we

SPEAKER_149: wanted to focus on enterprise chat so you could think of us as for sure a slack killer slack competitor it says that slack wasn't built for the ai era glue is ai native what does that mean no channels you know i showed this to jama the first thing he said as you had me at no channels right

SPEAKER_80: people are so sick of channels you have to keep up with all these hundreds and hundreds of channels and the real problem with channels is there's one thread in a channel that you want to see in order to see it you have to join the whole channel and now you're getting all this noise people just want the threads so if you look at what's the chat model inside of chat gpt it's just threads right you create a topic-based thread in chat gpt the ai comes up with a name for it puts it in the sidebar and then if you want to talk about something else you create a new chat that's exactly the way that glue works it's just multiplayer you just put the groups and individuals you want on the thread let me just

SPEAKER_149: show you real quick here's my uh glue here and you can see that in the sidebar i've got all the threads that i've been involved in like i said you can address them to multiple people or groups and then you've got the chat here now we've also fully integrated ai and so nick who's our producer just in this thread said at glue ai what countries does sacks talk about most in episodes episodes is a group

SPEAKER_80: we created to be the repository of all of the transcripts of our episodes and so glue did a search and it said david sax frequently discusses ukraine what the most yeah so then so then nick said be more specific about sax stance on ukraine russia war oh boy and it's gonna overload the server well here it said here david sax has articulated a nuance and critical perspective on the ukraine russia war across various episodes the all in pod here are some key points encapsulating his stance and it like nailed it it's talked about prevention through diplomacy opposition to nato expansion humanitarian concerns skepticism military intervention p still proposal you know i'll copy and paste this onto twitter x later today but the point is it like nailed it across all these different episodes and then this is a feature of glue it provided sources so it cites where it got all the information from so imagine you know we're doing this for the all in pod but you could imagine that instead of it being transcripts of a podcast it could be your work documents you now have in your main chat the ability just to ask hey at glue ai remind me where we left that project or tell me who the expert is on this subject matter or who's contributed to the most of this project i've actually figured out using glue ai who's contributed the most deal flow at craft it's

SPEAKER_283: pretty amazing now let me show you like some of the answers what what's the answer i'm not gonna say

SPEAKER_287: here i think it's brian okay brian's my guy those two brian it's my guy i want to hire brian if i

SPEAKER_288: gotta get sacks i go daniel and brian boom boom boom boom that's how i get sacks on the line okay you take daniel i'll hire brian

SPEAKER_295: i'll reconstitute craft we'll call it a draft

SPEAKER_300: all right look let me show you a couple hold on a second sacks i just looked at the um chat gpt4

SPEAKER_302: omni server and when you did that query it actually rolled its eyes keep going okay

SPEAKER_80: hey so so we talked about how chat gpt4 oh understands sentiment in conversations and i think this is a really good example so evan who's my co-founder glue was just testing this for us and he asked what is each besties personality type based on conversations and episodes and first of all it figured out who the besties are like we didn't program that it just figured it out on its own which is pretty impressive and here's what it said about each besties personality so it says jason calcana's role the moderator and entertainer personality traits charismatic humorous lively and the glue of the group say more is often praised for his ability to make the podcast entertaining and keep the conversation flowing jason's energy and ability to bring humor into discussions are key elements that define his role in the podcast comments he's acknowledged for his role in bringing the group together chamath palihapitiya the visionary and hustler personality traits insightful driven persistent chamath's relentless drive and ability to hustle or admire by his peers making him a core part of the podcast intellectual discussions i'll skip me but dis freeberg the pragmatic scientists and realists pragmatic methodical and a bit reserved oh freeberg is often the voice of reason bringing a scientific and realistic perspective to the discussion he focuses on analysis logical reasoning and then it cites where it got this from and it says here overall the dynamic between the four besties creates a well-rounded and engaging podcast with each member bringing their unique strengths personality traits to the table i think that's pretty incredible how woke is this have you uh have you

SPEAKER_151: put any rails on or is this just pure chat gpt 4o combined with the data yeah yeah so what we're

SPEAKER_80: doing here is we're wrapping chat gpt 4o with blue features that we've implemented to get the most out of the conversation there's things we have to do to scope the the prompt and then we're using a retrieval augmented generation service called raggy which does rag as a service that basically slurps in our transcripts and makes them accessible to the ai so um that's basically the stack that we're using but as the models get better and better glue just gets better and better again can i can i just make

SPEAKER_27: a comment on this it's just so clean jcal was the key for me in abandoning slack he told me two or three years ago he called me and he said i have you can tell me the exact channels i eliminated some channels that were random there was like two or three channels that your slack instance wasn't allowed to have and i was like this is genius and i went in and i was like all of our companies should just eliminate these channels and we could only get like 20 or 30 compliance but it really started to turn me off slack because i would get caught in these threads that were just so totally useless and i thought why aren't people working and this is really great because you cannot blather on about nonsense and glue which i find really useful well this is what happens when slack we use it at 80 90 just so

SPEAKER_32: you know so we were the when we got into the early get into slack too much people start to think slack

SPEAKER_121: is the job and replying to slacks and having conversations is the job when there's actually a job to be done there's a job to be done yeah and so it's important and what i liked about this implementation facts was it's like the ability to make a feed or a data source inside of your communication platform so the fact that you imported all of the episodes and the transcripts is great

SPEAKER_136: but what i want is like our hubspot or our sales crm i want our zendesk i want our linkedin jobs and our linkedin job applications i want our notion i want a coda to each have the ability and when i was using it last night what you do is you use the at symbol to evoke and to summon in a way it's like summoning beetlejuice so you summon your ai but then you tell it what data set you want to go after so you say you know at ai let's talk about i don't know how do you manage your deal flow at craft do

SPEAKER_321: you use software like crm software to manage deals brian we just do it but we do it all in glue so it's

SPEAKER_80: already right there but you're right so so the the first thing that glue ai has access to is all of

SPEAKER_149: your chat history which is amazing because you get like you know that we can look at all your

SPEAKER_80: attachments and we've got i think six integrations at launch there'll be more so yeah like all of your enterprise data will be there in the short term you're right you have to summon the repository by app mentioning because the ai needs a little bit of help of where to look but in the future it's going

SPEAKER_252: to figure it out on its own so it's going to become more and more seamless but it'll insert itself so we

SPEAKER_136: have a discussion about sales and then you might have a sales bot that says hey by the way nobody's

SPEAKER_80: called this client in three months well that's where i want to go with it is i call that promptless which is i want the ai just to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team even if it hasn't been summoned yet but we need some model improvement for that frankly i mean we'll be able to get there by gpt5 but that's totally where this is headed i'll show you just one more fun example if i could let me just show you this so i asked it to to write a letter to lena khan to be a guest at the all-in summit and i told it mention positive things we've said about lena khan in episodes of the all-in pod and so it wrote this letter dear chair khan we hope this message finds you well on behalf of the host of the all-in pod we're excited to send an invitation for you to speak at the upcoming all-in summit and then it says in our conversations we have frequently highlighted your impressive credentials and the impactful work you've undertaken for example in episode 36 we acknowledge your trailblazing role and so the letter was able to quote episodes of the all-in pod just without anyone having to go do that research and figure out like what would be the best because i told it only say positive things don't say anything negative right and then it said warm regards and it said who the four besties were again we never told it who the besties are we just said write us a letter so it's pretty incredible now this is an example with the all-in pod but think about any work context where the ai has access to your previous work documents it's pretty amazing what it can do well i mean it is kind of in the name

SPEAKER_167: like this is glue put you together and slack is where you slack up makes total sense the brands give you a

SPEAKER_326: little bit of a tip we should have seen it coming with slack totally i got breaking news coming in

SPEAKER_01: friedberg your life's work sax did his uh product review now it's your turn freeberg we got breaking

SPEAKER_53: news coming in i did promise you that when ohalo decides to come out of stealth and explains what we've

SPEAKER_03: done and what we're doing i would do it here on the all in pod first before the exclusive all in exclusive so basically by the time this pod airs we're going to be announcing what ohalo has been developing for the past five years and has had an incredible breakthrough in which is basically a new technology in agriculture and we call it boosted breeding i'm going to take a couple minutes just to talk through what we discovered or invented at ohalo and why it's important and the kind of significant implications for it but basically five years ago we had this theory that we could change how plants reproduce and in doing so we would be able to allow plants to pass a hundred percent of their genes to their offspring rather than just half their genes to their offspring and if we could do that then all the genes from the mother and all the genes from the father would combine in the offspring rather than just half the genes from the mother and half the genes from the father and this would radically transform crop yield and improve the health and the size of the plants which could have a huge impact on agriculture because yield the size of the plants ultimately drives productivity per acre revenue for farmers cost of food calorie production sustainability etc so this image just shows generally how reproduction works you've got two parents you get a random selection of half of the dna from the mother and a random selection of half the dna from the father so you never know which half you're going to get from the mother or which half you're going to get from the father that's why when people have kids every kid looks different and then those two halves come together and they form the offspring so every time a new child is born every time a plant has offspring you end up with different genetics and this is the problem with plant breeding let's say that you have a bunch of genes in one plant that are disease resistant a bunch of genes in the other plant that are drought resistant and you want to try and get them together today the way we do that in agriculture is we spend decades trying to do plant breeding where we try and write all these different crosses find the ones that have the good genes find the other ones that have the good genes and try and keep combining them and it can take forever and it may never happen that you can get all the good other than one plant to make it both disease resistant and drought resistant so what we did is we came up with this theory that we could actually change the genetics of the parent plants we would apply some proteins to the plants and those proteins would switch off the reproductive

SPEAKER_48: circuits that cause the plants to split its genes and as a result the parent plants give a hundred percent

SPEAKER_03: of their dna to their offspring so the offspring have double the dna of either parent you get all the genes from the mother all the genes from the father and finally after years of toiling away at trying to get this thing to work and all these experiments and all these approaches we finally got it to work and we started collecting data on it and the data is ridiculous like the yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100 percent or more just to give you a sense like in the corn seed industry breeders that are breeding corn are spending three billion dollars a year on breeding and they're getting maybe one and a half percent yield gain per year with our system we are seeing 50 to 100 percent jump in the size of these plants it's pretty incredible here's an example this is a little weed that we that you do experiments with in agriculture called arabidopsis so it's really easy to work with and you can see that what we have on the top are those two parents a and b and then we applied our boosted technology to them and combined them and we ended up with that offspring called boosted ab so you can see that plant on the

SPEAKER_232: right it's much bigger it's got bigger leaves it's healthier looking etc for your question does that mean that the boosted one has twice the number of chromosomes as a and b exactly right so is that like a new species then yeah so um how does it survive with twice the number of chromosomes yeah it's

SPEAKER_03: called polyploidy so we actually see this happen from time to time in nature for example humans have two sets of chromosomes right so does corn so to many other species somewhere along the evolutionary history wheat doubled and then doubled again and you end up actually in wheat having six sets of chromosomes wheat is what's called a hexaploid potatoes are a tetraploid they have four sets of

SPEAKER_48: chromosomes and strawberries are an octaploid they have eight and some plants have as many as 24 sets of chromosomes so certain plant species have this really weird thing that might happen from time to time in

SPEAKER_03: evolution where they double their their dna naturally and so what we've effectively done is just kind of apply to protein to to make it happen and bring the correct two plants together when we

SPEAKER_149: make it happen and so this could only happen for a plant right this could never happen with an animal

SPEAKER_03: it wouldn't it wouldn't work in animals it works in plants okay and one way you can think about plant genetics is all the genes are sort of like tools in a toolbox the more tools you give the plant the more it is it has available to it to survive in any given second to deal with drought or hot weather or cold weather etc and so every given second the more tools or the more genes the plant has that are beneficial the more likely it is to keep growing and keep growing and that plays out over the lifetime of the plant with bigger bigger leaves and bigger you know grows taller but more importantly if you look at the bottom the seeds get bigger and in most crops what we're harvesting is the seed that's true and you know corn and many other crops and so seeing over a 40 increase in seed in this little weed was a really big deal but then we did it in potato and potato is a crazy result potato is the third largest source of calories on earth and so we took two potatoes that you see here in the middle a b and c d we applied our boosted technology to it to each of them and put them together and you end up with this potato a b c d that's the boosted potato and as you can see these were all planted on the same date and the boosted potato is much bigger than all the other potatoes here including a market variety that we show on the far right that's what's typically grown in the field now here's what's most important when you look under the ground and you harvest the potatoes you can see that that a b potato only had 33 grams c d had 9 grams so each parent had 33 and 9 grams potato but the boosted offspring had 682 grams of potato the yield gain was insane and so you could see this being obviously hugely beneficial for humanity you know potatoes being the third largest source of calories indian potato farmers are growing one acre of potato in india they eat potato two meals a day in africa potato is a food staple so around the world we've had a really tough time breeding potatoes and improving the yield with our system we've seen incredible yield gains in potato almost overnight and how big are those potatoes those are normal sized potatoes that you see there those are

SPEAKER_143: like you know table potatoes basically that looks like a russet potato right there that's like a

SPEAKER_349: normal size it started as like a little creamer potato basically and you blew it up into a russet

SPEAKER_03: potato is that yeah so the genetics on a b you can see they're like little purple tiny little purple potatoes the genetics on cd are like these little white you know tiny little ball potatoes but when you put those two together with boosted and you combine all the dna from a b and all the dna from cd you get this crazy high yielding potato a b cd which by the way is higher yielding than the market variety that's usually grown in the field on the far right so why not just grow russet potatoes then we are and so we're working on doing this with russet we're working on doing this with every major potato line sorry um the the improvement you'll see is actually in yield so it's not the size of the potato it's the number of potatoes that are being made um and so you'll see acre or something

SPEAKER_167: like that like the exactly you know projects in the 60s and 70s you know you can tell freeberg's

SPEAKER_326: onto something here you got david sachs to pay attention during it yeah this is a it's gonna be a deck of court and sachs is awake it's actually like how do i wet my beak interrogating the potato

SPEAKER_232: lines i've never what's going on i think genetics is interesting but so have you tried these potatoes

SPEAKER_50: they taste different oh no they're awesome yeah they're they're potatoes and we do a lot of

SPEAKER_358: analysis you haven't sprouted any horns yet or anything like that no no i mean again one of the

SPEAKER_50: other advantages of the system that we've developed let me go back here and i just want to take two

SPEAKER_03: seconds on this one of the other things this unlocks is creating actual seed that you can put in the ground in crops that you can't do that in today so potatoes the third largest source of calories but the way we grow potatoes you guys remember the movie the martian you chop up potatoes and you put them back in the ground because the seed that comes out of a potato which grows on the top in the flower every one of those seed is genetically different because of what i just showed on this chart right you get half the dna from the mother half the dna from another so every seed has different genetics so there's no potato seed industry today and potato is like a hundred billion dollar market with our system not only can we make potatoes higher yielding and make them disease resistant what we also make is perfect seed so farmers can now plant seed in the ground which saves them about 20 of revenue takes out all the disease risk and makes things much more affordable and easier to manage for farmers so it creates entirely new seed industries so we're going to be applying this boosted technology that we've discovered across nearly every major crop worldwide it'll both increase yield but it will also have a massive impact on the ability to actually deliver seed and help farmers and make food prices

SPEAKER_53: lower is it more expensive no it's it's actually cheaper so higher yield lower cost do you need more water less water less land less energy do you need more fertilizer fertilizer usually scales

SPEAKER_366: with biomass but these sorts of systems should be more efficient so fertilizer use per pound produced

SPEAKER_03: should go down significantly as we get to commercial trials with all this stuff and we're doing this

SPEAKER_368: across many crops so there's a lot of work to do in terms of like how do you scale and tell us

SPEAKER_08: production in the field tell us about the um the patents and how important patents play a role in

SPEAKER_40: this because isn't it like like one of monsanto's big things like they just go and sue everybody into

SPEAKER_52: the ground or whatever like i'm gonna answer you one second i'm just gonna switch my headset it just died wow we went from sacks as bots to freeberg's crops i'm glad we're doing him second because

SPEAKER_371: all of a sudden like group chat doesn't seem very important yeah wow he just he just saw the whole ukraine crisis here i wouldn't be able to grow wheat in the desert and in the rainforest he solved

SPEAKER_372: the uh world food problem yeah sax what have you what did you do for the last six months yeah we

SPEAKER_64: made enterprise chat a little better but we added ai to enterprise chat we cleaned up your slack so

SPEAKER_48: yeah when you invest we've invested a ton of money this was stealth for five years we put a ton of

SPEAKER_376: money into this business so when you invest like um i mean north north north of 50 yeah 50 million five

SPEAKER_370: years and you don't have a product in market yet wow that's something we actually have some product

SPEAKER_48: yeah so i haven't talked about the way we've been making money in some of the business we've been

David Sacks: doing okay let me just make sure this is like clear so that last photo you showed with the different

SPEAKER_80: types of potatoes you had created the super huge ones but you're saying that the the yield benefit here is just you create a much bigger hardier plant that's capable of producing many more potatoes

SPEAKER_377: yeah but the size of the potatoes doesn't change you can control for that when you breed so the

SPEAKER_03: selection of what plants you put together in the boosted system allows you to decide do you want small medium large that's all part of the design of which plants do you want to combine okay because

SPEAKER_149: your goal is not to turn like a russet potato into like a watermelon or something like that no the

SPEAKER_48: goal is to make more russet potato per acre so that we use less water we use less land farmers can make more money people pay less for food that's the goal and so it's all about yield it's not about changing the characteristics there are some crops where you want to change the characteristics like

SPEAKER_03: you might want to make bigger corn kernels and bigger cobs on the corn which is another thing that we've done and that's actually been published in our patent and the reason by the way i'm talking about all this is some of our patents started to get published last week and so when that came out the word started to get out that's why we decided to get public with what we've done because it's now

SPEAKER_121: coming out in the open you mentioned something briefly there about where different crops

SPEAKER_00: can be planted you know we had these big talks about wheat and corn they're only available in

SPEAKER_121: very specific parts you know north of the equator the campion jungles can't be in obviously polar or desert extremes so if you're successful what would this do for on a global basis where these crops are made because remember this whole discussion about ukraine totally the wheat belly of uh europe the

SPEAKER_53: cradle of wheat yeah it's a great question i'm so glad you asked it because that's one of the key drivers for the business is that we can now make crops adapted to all sorts of new environments that

SPEAKER_03: you otherwise can't grow food today there's close to somewhere between 800 million and a billion people that are malnourished that means they are living on less than 1200 calories a day

SPEAKER_48: for more than a year but on average we're producing 3500 calories per person worldwide in our ag systems the problem is we just can't grow crops where we need them and so by being able to do this sort of system where we can take crops that are very drought resistant or can grow in sandy soil or very hot weather and adapt cooler climate crops to those regions but through the system we can actually move

SPEAKER_368: significantly where things are grown and um and improve food access in regions of how freeberg when

SPEAKER_40: you look at a potato how do you figure out what part of their dna is the drought resistant part yeah and then how do you make sure that that's turned on so even if you inherit that chromosome it is is there some potential interaction with the generally if we can so these are what are called

SPEAKER_48: markers genetic markers and so there are known markers associated with known phenotypes a phenotype is a physical trait of a plant and so we know lots of markers for every crop that we grow markers for disease resistance drought resistance markers for big plants short plants etc and so what we do is we look at the genetics of different plants that we might want to combine into the boosted system and we

SPEAKER_03: say these ones have these markers these ones have these markers let's put them together and then that that'll drive the results one of the other interesting things we're seeing which i didn't get too much

SPEAKER_48: into in the slides it's not just about combining traits but it turns out when you add more genes together biology figures out a way to create gene networks these are all these genes that interact with each other in ways that are not super well understood but it makes the the organism healthier and bigger and live longer this is like when you bring like why mutts are healthier and live longer than purebred dogs because they have more genetic diversity so there's a lot of work now in what's called quantitative genomics where you actually look at the statistics across all the genes you use a model and the model predicts which two crosses you want to make out of hundreds of thousands or millions of potential crosses that the ai predicts here's the two best ones to cross because you'll

SPEAKER_40: get this growth or this healthiness so how do you want to how do you want to make money freeberg are you going to sell the seeds are you going to become the direct farmer are you going to become food as

SPEAKER_03: a service like how do you make the most money from this we're not going to farm farmers are our customers and so there are different ways to partner with people in the industry who already have seed businesses or already have genetics and help them improve the quality of their business and then there's other industries like in potato where we're building our own business of making potato seed for example so every crop and every region is actually quite different so it becomes a pretty complicated

SPEAKER_48: business to scale we're in the earlier days we're already revenue generating i would like a sweeter

SPEAKER_391: blueberry no comment no comment yeah i get tilted by the quality of the driscoll's blueberries let me tell

SPEAKER_27: you something about the driscoll's blueberries also the driscoll i've had only one batch of a driscoll strawberry that was just off the charts and every 19 847 other batches i bought have been total

SPEAKER_01: yeah now you want the european small ones or the japanese ones from hokkaido because they're rich and

SPEAKER_397: sweet and they're not these like monstrosity of giant flavorless strawberries what's that

SPEAKER_398: about could you do a seedless mango yes no cut it so you can just cut it oh my god how great would that be

SPEAKER_402: smooth amount of work per bite on a mango is like the worst ratio yeah oh my god well somehow we made

SPEAKER_50: it about us yeah no no look i think that's it is all about you guys tell us about the blueberries

SPEAKER_48: sorry well no every year driscoll's puts out a special labeled package called sweetest batch and they just had the sweetest batch of strawberry and blueberries i don't know if they're still in the stores but they only last for like a week or two and that's the best genetics only grown on a small number of acres what really incredible i'm going to go in as soon as this is done see if they have it so i got it a few weeks ago it's quite delicious anyway we know let's just say we know the berry market very well my co-founder cto judd ward whose whose brilliant idea boosted breeding was many years ago who i met because they had a new yorker article on judd i cold called him and said hey will you come in and give us a tech talk we started talking and judd came up with this idea for boosted breeding and so we started the business with judd and judd ran molecular breeding at driscoll so we have a lot of driscoll's people that work at ohalo we know the market really well can you go back to the patent

SPEAKER_83: stuff like are you oh yeah some seed person so we've spent we've spent 50 million bucks on you know

SPEAKER_03: plus on this business today so we have filed for ip protections that people can't just rip us off but i would say i think that the real advantage for the business arises from what we call trade secrets which is not just about taking patents and going out and suing people that's not a great business

SPEAKER_48: the business is how do you build a moat and then how do you extend that mode the great thing about plant breeding and genetics is that once you make an amazing variety the next year the variety gets better and the next year the variety gets better and so it's hard for anyone to catch up that's why seed companies generally get monopolies in the markets because farmers will keep buying that seed every year provided it delivers the best genetics and so our business model is really

SPEAKER_03: predicated on how do we build advantages and moats and then keep extending them rather than try to leverage ip so i'm a big fan of like building business model advantages this is going to be

SPEAKER_209: incredible sacks if you think about you know geopolitically what's going on in somalia sudan

SPEAKER_00: yemen afghanistan those places have tens of millions of people i think hundreds of millions collectively who are at risk for star vision if you could actually make crops that could be farmed there friedberg you would change humanity and then all these people buying up farmland in america that could devalue that farmland if that wasn't as limited of a resource yeah freeberg like no i

SPEAKER_03: think um so first of all like farmland in america is mostly family owned uh it's about 60 rented actually so a lot of families own it and then they rent it out because they stopped farming it but the great thing that we've seen in agriculture historically is that the more calories we produce the more food we produce the more there seems to be a market it's like any other economic what about wheat and rice yeah so those are calorie sources one and two and there's certainly opportunity for us to apply our boosted systems there the big breakthrough with potatoes we can make potato seed using our

SPEAKER_143: boosted system in addition to making better potatoes mcdonald's is the largest buyer of potatoes yeah

SPEAKER_03: so in the us 60 of the potatoes go to french fries and potato chips mcdonald's buys most of the fries pepsico under frito-lay buys most of the potato chip potatoes 40 percent are table potatoes in india 95 of the potatoes are table potatoes they're eaten at home and the indian potato markets three to four times as big as the u.s potato market in brazil it's 90 table potato so all around the world potatoes

SPEAKER_48: different the us is you know unusually large consumers of french fries and potato

SPEAKER_27: well i speak on behalf of jay cal when i said we will gladly invest a million at a 10 cap in both of your businesses absolutely yes we will break our way into it jay cal and i will do the deal or wire

Chamath Palihapitiya: the money we'll wire the money a little million to each of you guys at a 10 cap thank you absolutely

SPEAKER_146: you're in it may not be a 10 cap though but yes breaking news and jay cal have secured the bag

SPEAKER_425: some breaking news jay cal have secured the bag from the besties actually doing work yeah well i

SPEAKER_428: appreciate you guys letting me talk about it i'm excited to both of you i love it it's been uh yeah

SPEAKER_368: yeah building stuff is hard there's always risk it's a lot of work and a lot of setbacks but man when you get stuff working it's great we're each doing the things we do best

David Sacks: freeberg is solving the world's hunger problem and i'm making i'm cleaning up your slack

SPEAKER_80: making your enterprise channel a little better all progress counts

SPEAKER_121: all right stanley druckenmiller has got a new boyfriend druckenmiller's got a boyfriend and his name is javier and they've eloped to argentina druckenmiller professed his love with tom cruise

SPEAKER_136: on oprah's couch in a cnbc interview this week the only free market quote leader in the world right now bizarrely is in argentina of all places he cut social security at 35 percent after he came to office they've gone from a primary deficit of like four or five percent to a three percent surplus they've taken a massive hit in gdp basically a depression for a quarter and his approval rating has not gone down truckenmiller has explained how he invested in argentina after seeing malay's speech at davos which

SPEAKER_207: we covered here's a 30 second clip play the clip nick by the way do you want to hear how i invest in

SPEAKER_437: argentina it's a funny story i wasn't at davos but i saw the speech in davos and it was about one o'clock in the afternoon in my office i dialed up perplexity and i said give me the five most liquid adr's in argentina it gave me enough of a description that i follow the old soros rule invest and then investigate i bought all of them we did some work on them i increased my positions so far it's been

SPEAKER_00: great but we'll see yeah that's quite interesting he um quick note you hear drunkenmiller mention adr's for those of you who don't know and i was one of them they stand for american depository receipts basically a global stock offered on a u.s exchange to simplify things for investors yeah i mean he didn't sign a prenup here he just went all in and he bought the stock chamath and then he's going to figure it out later tell us your thoughts on this love affair this bromance there's a

SPEAKER_40: great clip of malay he goes on this talk show in argentina and the talk show host she's just so

SPEAKER_27: excited and greets him and then they start making out have you guys seen this what they're just full on french kissing each other it's hilarious yeah i mean like soros has been very famous for this invest

SPEAKER_40: and investigate thing it's a it's like a smart strategy for very very liquid public market investors that have the curiosity that he does i mean i don't have much of a reaction to that i think that the the thing with argentina that's worth taking away is when you've spent decades casting about and misallocating capital and running your economy into the ground the formula for fixing it is exactly the same you cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy and so

SPEAKER_157: the thing we need to take away is if we don't get our together that's probably what we're gonna have

SPEAKER_207: to do sax the influence of malay on american politics will there be any it seems like he has paralleled

SPEAKER_121: what elon did at twitter facebook uh and zuck did a facebook do you think that this you know experiment

SPEAKER_207: he's doing down there of just cutting staff cutting departments will ever make its way into american

David Sacks: politics probably not i mean not until we're forced to but what malay did he comes in and they've got a huge budget deficit and they've got runaway inflation and they're debasing their currency

SPEAKER_149: and just practically overnight he just slashes government spending to the point where he has a government surplus and then as soon as he gets credibility with the markets that allows them to reduce interest rates inflation goes away and people start investing in the country magic

SPEAKER_80: it's massive there is a path it's obvious listen i mean you can't run deficits forever you can't accumulate debt forever it's just like a household if your spending exceeds your income eventually you got to pay it back or you go broke and the only reason we haven't gone broker experience hyperinflation is because we're the world's reserve currency so there's just a lot of room for debasement and there's not a ready alternative yet i mean everyone's trying to figure out what the alternative will be so we've been able to accumulate more and more debt but it's it's reaching a point where it's unsustainable and what we've already seen is that the feds had to jack up interest rates from very low practically nothing to five and a half percent and that has a real cost on people's well-being because now your cost of getting a mortgage goes way up i mean mortgage rates are over

SPEAKER_456: what seven and a half percent now yeah six seven percent depending on how much net worth and your

SPEAKER_80: credit rating right and so it's much harder to get a mortgage now it's harder to make a car payment if you need to borrow to buy a car and if you have personal debt the interest rates can be higher the inflation rate actually doesn't take into account any of those things remember larry summers did that study where he said the real inflation rate would be 18 or would have peaked at 18 if you include a cost of borrowing that's why people don't feel as well off as the unemployment rate would normally suggest so people are hit really hard when interest rates go up in terms of big purchases they need to make with debt and then of course it's really bad for the investment environment because when interest rates are really high that creates a higher hurdle rate and people don't want to invest in risk assets and so eventually the pace of innovation will go down and druckenmiller made this point in his next set of comments he said that treasury is still acting like we're in a depression it's interesting because i've studied the depression you had a private sector crippled with debt basically with no new ideas so interventions policies were called for and were effective he said the private sector could not be more different today than it was in the great depression the balance sheets are fine they're healthy and have you ever seen more innovation ideas that the private sector could take advantage of like blockchain like ai he says all the government needs to do is get out of the way and let them innovate instead they've spent and spent and spent and my new fear now is that spending and the resulting interest rates on the debt that's been created are going to crowd out some of the innovation that otherwise would have taken place i completely endorsed druckenmiller's view of bidenomics and actually i mean this is what i said way

SPEAKER_459: back in 2021 victory lap here we go a little david sacks victory lap we need a little graphic for that

SPEAKER_80: druckenmiller used the word bidenomics and said i give these guys an f because they're they're still printing money and spending money like we're in a depression even though we're in a repairing economy and when they started doing this back in 2021 you know i tweeted bidenomics equals pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus into a rapport economy i'm not going to pretend like i know what's going to happen next but never tried this before what happened next was a lot of inflation and that jacked up interest rates according to even keynesian economics the reason why you have deficit spending is because you're in a recession or depression and so use the government to stimulate and balance things out you don't get out yeah you don't do deficit spending when the economy is already doing well so this spending there's no reason for it yeah it's like showing up to like a party that's

SPEAKER_209: going crazy and being like putting gasoline on the fire yeah i mean more importantly it should limit

SPEAKER_03: the approval or action of certain programs that you might otherwise want to do in a normal environment but in an inflationary environment you don't have the flexibility to do them student loan forgiveness is a really good example is now the time of course not to do student loan forgiveness or do we wait

SPEAKER_143: for inflation to temper a bit is now the time you know so so there's just a lot of these examples that it actually the opposite should be true yeah but none of all of those things get you votes before

SPEAKER_80: we move on from this look what we have coming out of washington here is a contradictory and therefore self-defeating policy you've got the fed jacking up rates to control inflation you move across town and you've got capitol hill on the white house spending like there's no tomorrow which is inflationary right why would you do both those things choose what your policy is going to be it's like

SPEAKER_471: driving with your foot on the brake and the gas at the same time it's not a great idea for the car let

SPEAKER_03: me just make one comment jacal before we move on about the drunkenmiller investment statement of course i just wanted to say like i think what it highlights about drunkenmiller and call it a rift in investing philosophy or skill is the difference between precision and accuracy what i mean by that is precision really references that you do a lot of detailed analysis to try and make sure you understand every specific thing that is going right or could go wrong but the problem and so that means you for example might do a ton of diligence on a company and make sure you understand every dollar every point of margin all the specifics of the maturation of that business and where they are in their cycle but you could be very precise but be very inaccurate for example if you miss an entire trend someone could invest in macy's back when amazon was taking off and have done a lot of precise analysis on macy's margin structure and performance and said this is a great business but they missed the bigger trend which is that e-commerce was going to sweep away macy's and consumers were simply that's not possible

SPEAKER_474: in the analysis but they were doing let's be honest freeberg nobody can make that stupid of a trade

SPEAKER_475: to say macy's versus amazon over the next 10 years well yeah and so like and then um do not poke the

SPEAKER_476: tiger let's not get into it with other podcasters the worst spread trade in history yeah let me just

SPEAKER_50: finish the statement but the other one is being accurate and accurate means you get the yeah the right bet the right sentiment yes the right friend the problem with being accurate you could have said in the year 2000 hey the internet's gonna take off and you could have put a bunch of money in but the

SPEAKER_48: problem was you were right you just had to have the necessary patience and so accuracy generally yields better returns but it requires more patience because you can't necessarily time how long it will take for you to be right so a guy like druckenmiller is making an accurate bet he bets correctly on the trend on where things are headed he doesn't necessarily need to be precise but he has the capital and his capital structure that allows him to be patient to make sure that he eventually gets the

SPEAKER_00: return and to build on your thoughts having watched this movie a couple of times and you know i overthought the twitter investment as but one example i had the opportunity to invest in twitter when it was like a single digit millions company i just thought you know what this thing is only like the headline and i told ev like it's the headline it's not like the entire blog post make a cacophony of idiots this thing is going to be chaos and i was right but i was wrong right great bet but my wrong

SPEAKER_325: analysis right and so you can add precision to other aspects like when you sell your shares or when you double down but you have to get the trend right which is evan williams great entrepreneur jack great entrepreneur twitter taking off like a weed just make the bet right the problem is you

SPEAKER_149: knew too much about journalism you knew too much about the space they were trying to disrupt and that could be a mistake we did paypal none of us knew anything about payments that was one of the reasons we were successful all the payments experts told us it couldn't be done right absolutely

SPEAKER_157: that happens a lot i had never even know i didn't even know what a facebook was when i joined facebook it's an american college phenomenon no serious you don't have that in canada but you knew zuck and

SPEAKER_321: you saw some growth charts and you saw some precision in his ability to build product and that's the way

SPEAKER_03: to go i mean the great thing about the great thing about network effect businesses is there's a trend line that sustains because it builds if it's an appropriate network effect so you can be accurate about buying into the right network effect business you don't need to use all of this diligence to be perfectly sound around the maturation of the revenue and the margin structure and all that stuff as long as the trend line is right and you're willing to be patient to hold your investment i think drunkenmiller's point is incredible he took a look he very quickly made a macro assessment from a macro perspective what mille is doing is significantly different than what we're seeing in any other emerging market let alone mature market with respect to fiscal austerity and appropriateness in this sort of inflationary global inflationary environment and he said you know what i don't see any other leader doing this this is a no-brainer bet let me make the bet and as long as he's willing to hold this thing for long enough eventually the markets will get there and call it a spread trade

SPEAKER_157: against anything he'll be proven right well speed and so not to but speaking of bets jake how you told me this week that you just made your largest investment ever tell us about that yeah so i've gotten

SPEAKER_494: very lucky now because a lot of my founders from the first couple of cohorts of investing i did when

SPEAKER_136: i was a sequoia scout have come back and created second and third companies and so you know that happened with tk uber and the cloud kitchens that happened with raul from report of then superhuman and then it happened recently just in the past year my friend jonathan who's the co-founder of thumbtack he asked me to come to dinner he said hey you know you were the first investor in thumbtack will you be the first investor in our next company athena and i said sure what do you do and he explained it to me and we put a seven-figure bet in which is rare for us as a seed fund right normally our bet sizes are 100k 250 you know it's a 50 million dollar fund why did you do it yeah it's very simple it's

SPEAKER_00: the fastest growing company i've ever seen and i'm including uber in that it has been growing at uh you know a rate that i'll just say is faster than uber and robin hood when when we were investing in them tens of millions of dollars it's a very simple concept when thumbtack was building their

SPEAKER_121: marketplace they used researchers in places like manila etc in the philippines knowledge workers and what they realized was the 0.1 of those knowledge workers were as good or better than say americans at doing certain jobs and so they've created this virtual ea service you can go see it at athenowow.com and we now have two of them inside of our company it turns out americans don't want to do the operations roles so it's kind of like aws you just give them 36 000 a year they give you essentially an operations or an ea and they have ones that are kind of cheap of staffish and this company is growing like a weed so i am working with them on the product design as well so imagine having you know

SPEAKER_136: two or three of these incredibly hard-working people who are trained with mba class level curriculum they spend months training these people up they pay them two or three times what they would make at

SPEAKER_121: any other company and then they pair them with executives here and it's kind of been an underground secret in silicon valley because it's only by invitation right now because they can only train so

SPEAKER_153: many people but if you've tried to hire an executive assistant i don't know if anybody's tried to do that recently you hooked me up so i will be guinea picking this service yes soon and i have two of

SPEAKER_136: them and so it is just the greatest that you can have an operations are these people powered by ai tools as well yeah so that's the kind of secret sauce here is they're training them and they watch

SPEAKER_121: you work and then they will learn how you do your job and then how quickly you can delegate and get stuff off your plate is the name of the game so we have an investment team with researchers and analysts in

SPEAKER_136: it we have a due diligence team and then you have like executive functions in our fund they have now started shadowing you know you know highly paid americans in an investment firm ours and then train them up and now our due diligence our first level screening you know and our tracking of companies is being done by these assistants for what i'll say is a third to a fourth of the price i was paying previously so what that does in an organization is we're just delegating away and then moving our investment team to doing in-person meetings and doing higher level stuff and yeah you're you're 80 90

SPEAKER_27: the so at 80 90 we have this funny thing where we've made it a verb whenever you see somebody doing high quality work at a quarter to a tenth of the cost we say oh you just 80 90'd it correct so you're

SPEAKER_153: you're 80 90 in the investment team i'm 80 90 in the investment team and you know what it was scary

SPEAKER_136: as hell for them because they're like am i going to lose my job it's like no you now get to instead of doing a check and call once a month you can do a check and call every other week or every week or instead of doing 15 first round interviews a week you can do 25 because you have this assistant with

SPEAKER_157: the way doing all the repetitive work the way that companies will work in five and ten years i don't think guys any of us are going to recognize what it's going to look like no yeah so this is

SPEAKER_53: anyway i mean like watching sax's demo earlier how much progress and how seamless that product

SPEAKER_48: works with the features it has enabled by the underlying models you just get to thinking how

SPEAKER_368: all of these vertical software applications become completely personalized and quickly rebuilt around the eye you know it's it's so obvious imagine how long it would have taken john to write a letter to

SPEAKER_80: lena con to like if we said john invite lena con but be sure to reference all the nice things we said about her on episodes of the pod oh it'll be 10 hours of work you gotta go find the episodes listen to them to figure out what the best quotes are you got that and you got it done in

SPEAKER_48: five seconds it's incredible totally and then imagine building that same sort of capability into a very specific vertical application that's specific to some business function and you can probably spend a couple minutes or an hour building that function and then it saves you hours a day in perpetuity yeah you know and i think i think that's why these tools companies or the tools products

SPEAKER_03: that google microsoft amazon and a few others are building are actually incredible businesses

SPEAKER_48: because so many enterprises and so many vertical application builders are going to be able to leverage them to rewrite their entire business functions i got myself and my co-founders at 8090 we

SPEAKER_27: get this stream of emails of companies that are like or people that are like we have this product idea or we have this small product one of the emails i got this is crazy was from a guy that's like oh we've 80 90 photoshop so like we have like a much much cheaper version of photoshop and the guy was doing like a few million bucks of of arr and growing really nicely but then it turned out that somebody saw that and then 80 90'd it so then there's a version of that thing and so to your point

SPEAKER_112: freeberg none of these big companies stand a chance yeah yeah it's everything not because they're not

SPEAKER_27: because the products aren't good but like jacal is going to go off and experiment with this sac's going to go off and build a product you know as every time that you're at a boundary condition we're all going to explore well maybe we could do this with ai maybe we shouldn't hire a person not because we're trying to be mean about it but it's because the normal natural thing to do and the opex of companies is just going to go down which means the size of companies are going to shrink which means the amount

SPEAKER_112: of money you need is going to go down and that's just going to create the ability for these companies

SPEAKER_36: to sell those products cheaper so it's a national it's a massive deflationary tail we we had the

SPEAKER_00: same thing happen with compute and now it's happening inside of organizations i wrote a blog post about this on my sub stack called add this is the framework i came up with i told my entire team look at what you got done every week and i want you to ask three questions how can i automate this how can i deprecate this how can i delegate it and you know the automate part is ai and what you're doing david the delegate part is athenawow.com and then the deprecate is hey just be thoughtful what are

SPEAKER_121: you doing that you don't need to do and that's 80 90 in something like there are things inside these products that you don't actually need what's the core functionality of the product you know make

SPEAKER_136: it as affordable as possible and then what's going to happen for people who think this is bad for society you've got it completely wrong we're going to have more people be able to create more products and solve more problems the unemployment rate is going to stay very low we're just going to have more companies so the idea like there was somebody who was working on very small like software i want to get pitched on very niche ideas i want to create something where people can find people to play pickleball with right like a pickleball marketplace now that didn't wouldn't typically work because you would need five million dollars a year to build that product but if you can build it for five hundred thousand dollars a year well now you've only got to clear that number to be profitable so a lot more smaller businesses a lot more independence all these little niche ideas will be able to be built and a vc who says i'm not giving you five million dollars to build that app will be like but i will give you 500k and that's what i'm seeing on the ground in startups the same startups that had a request of three million dollars in funding five years ago are now requesting five hundred to a million it's deflationary all the way down did you guys incredible did you see the google thing did you guys see the google ai gemini stuff chat gpt omni launch at the same time or perhaps strategically right before google dropped its latest ai announcements at io the biggest announcement is that they are going to change search this is the piece of the puzzle in the kingdom that they have been very concerned with and they're going for it the new product and they have like 20 different products you can see them at labs.google where they put all their different products but this is the most important one they call it ai overviews basically it's perplexity for most users by the end of the year they're going to have this here's how it works and you can see it on your screen if you're watching us go to youtube here they gave an example how do you clean a fabric sofa this normally would have given you 10 blue links here it gives you step-by-step guide with citations and links so they're pre-empting you know the issue of people getting upset and as i predicted they're going to have targeted ads here's the things you

SPEAKER_121: need in order to clean your couch you can only use this if you're using your gmail account if you use like a domain name on google docs it won't work there so go to labs.google but they're doing citations and i think that we're going to see a major lawsuit here those people who are in those boxes are going to look at the answer here and realize maybe they don't get the click through and that this answer was built on that and now we're going to have to have a new framework there's going to need to be sacks

David Friedberg: a new company that clears this content so that google can do answers like this the workflow stuff in

SPEAKER_27: gmail also kicked ass the demo that they showed was you get a bunch of receipts and the person giving the demo she said something the effect of well wouldn't it be great if like you know the ai assistant were able to find all the receipts and then aggregated them and it puts them in a folder

SPEAKER_40: and then also actually generated an expense report or like a spreadsheet on the fly it it's crazy yeah

David Friedberg: i gotta say i think that it's free to change your mind and so it's good to do that oh and i think that jimoth in a rare moment of reflection might do are we going to have a re-underwriting is this a re-underwriting

SPEAKER_40: i change my mind all the time i just i mean you know because i'm

SPEAKER_530: gentlemen breaking news jimoth is re-underwriting his google trick

SPEAKER_27: sorry i know to blow your ears out i think the google thing is pretty special between last week's announcement of isomorphic labs which let's be honest that's a that's just a multi-hundred

SPEAKER_36: billion dollar company so you're saying there might be many think about it this way right multi-billion dollar opportunities sitting there dormant inside of google that ai unlocks look at

SPEAKER_27: a company like royalty pharma so if royalty pharma with a pretty it's a phenomenal business run by a phenomenal entrepreneur pablo lagareta but what is that business that's buying two and three percent royalties of drugs that work and you can see how much value that those guys have created which is essentially 90 ebitda margin business it's outrageous because they're in the business of analyzing and then buying small slivers i think something like isomorphic ends up being of that magnitude of margin scale but at an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude higher revenue so if you if you fold that back into a google if you think about what they're doing now on the search side these guys may be really kicking some ass here so i i i think that the the reports of their

SPEAKER_36: death were premature and exaggerated absolutely and the report of their death freeberg was based

SPEAKER_397: upon people don't need to click on the ads but as i said on this very bogus my belief is that this is going to result in more searches and more knowledge engagement because once you get how to cook your

SPEAKER_121: steak and get the the right uh temperature right for medium rare it's going to anticipate your next three questions better so now to say hey what wine pairing would you want with that steak hey do you need steak knives and it's just going to read your mind that you need steak knives and chamoff likes to buy steak knives but maybe you like to buy mock meats whatever it is it's going to drive more research and more clicks so while the monetization per search may go down we might see many many more searches what do you think freeberg you work there and um when we look at the the the future of the company

SPEAKER_136: and the stock price nick will pull it up man if you had held your stock yeah i don't know did you hold

SPEAKER_53: i think i bought some um during the original stock during the world oh no i sold all my stock back when i started climate because i was a startup entrepreneur and needed to live so which you know i i recently did did the math on it it was pretty it'd be worth it'd be worth a lot it would be worth billions or tens of billions no no would it would have been a billion or no no okay you know i was not like a super i was

SPEAKER_03: not a senior exec or anything i i think what you said is is probably true so that's a creative i think

SPEAKER_48: the other thing that's probably true is a big measure at google on the search page in terms of search

SPEAKER_03: engine performance was the bounce back rate meaning someone does a search they go off to another site and then they come back because they didn't get the answer they wanted and then the one box launched which shows a short answer on the top which basically keeps people from having a bad search

SPEAKER_48: experience because they get the result right away so a key metric is they're going to start to discover which vertical searches uh meaning like hey cooking recipes that kind of stuff like you're referencing sports there's lots and lots of these different types of searches that will trigger a snippet or a one box that's powered by gemini that will provide the user a better experience than them jumping off to a third party page to get that same content and then they'll be able to monetize that content that they otherwise were not participating in the monetization of so i think the real victim in all this is that long tail of content on the internet that probably gets cannibalized by the snippet one box experience within the search function and then i do think that the revenue per search query in some of those categories actually has the potential to go up not down explain explain give me an example you keep people on the page so you get more more search volume there you get more searches because of the examples you gave and then when people do stay you now have the ability to better monetize that particular search query because you otherwise would have lost it to the third party content

SPEAKER_03: page so for example selling the steak knives is another you know it's kind of a good example or booking the travel directly and so on so by keeping more of the experience integrated they can monetize

SPEAKER_48: the search per query higher and they're going to have more queries and then they're going to have the quality of the queries go up so i think it's all in there's a case to be made i haven't done a spreadsheet analysis on this but i guarantee you uh going back to our earlier point about precision versus accuracy my guess is there's a lot of hedge fund type folks doing a lot of this precision type analysis trying to break apart search queries by vertical and trying to figure out what the net

SPEAKER_03: effect will be of having better ai driven one box and snippets and my guess is that's why there's a lot of buying activity happening in the stock right now and i think they're probably all missing

SPEAKER_48: to moff's point a lot of these call options like isomorphic labs i can tell you meta and amazon what meta and amazon do not have an isomorphics lab and waymo sitting inside their business that suddenly pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap and google does have a few of those so so other

SPEAKER_548: bets could actually pay off these are maybe there may be i look i mean there's calico no one talks

SPEAKER_119: about calico i don't know what's going on extension yeah let me get sacks involved in this discussion sacks when we show that example it's obvious google is telling you where they got these citations from

SPEAKER_00: and how they built their how to clean your couch how to make your steak those they were in a very delicate balance with content creators over the past two decades which is hey we're going to use a little bit of your content but we're going to send you traffic this is going to take away the need to send traffic to these places they're going to benefit from it

SPEAKER_325: to me this is the mother of all class action lawsuits because they're putting it right up there hey we're using your content to make this answer here's the citations we didn't get your permission

SPEAKER_121: to do this but we're doing it anyway what do you think is the resolution here does all these content go away because there's no model does google try to make peace with the content creators and cut them in or license their data what's going to happen to content creation when somebody like google

SPEAKER_00: is just going to take wire cutter or these other sources that are not behind a paywall and just give

SPEAKER_237: you the goddamn answer well look this is the same conversation we've had two or three times where we're

SPEAKER_149: going to need the courts to figure out what fair use is and depending on what they come up with it may be the case that google has to cut them in by licensing by doing licensing deals we don't know the answer to that yet uh by the way i do know a founder who is already skating to where the puck is going and creating a rights marketplace so that content owners can license their ai rights to whoever wants to use them i think that could be that's smart very interesting i was on i had a call

SPEAKER_186: with him yesterday and you and i will be on that cap table together once again yeah yeah so i don't

SPEAKER_149: want to say who it is because we can't let him announce his own round but um only participating in

SPEAKER_80: the seed round look stepping back here it's interesting if you go back to the very beginning of google the og google search bar had two buttons on it right search and i feel lucky i feel lucky was just tell me the answer just take me to the best result and no one ever did that because it kind of sucked then they started inching towards with one box but it wasn't you didn't get the one box very often it's very clear now that gemini powered one box is the future of google search people just want the answer i think that this feature is going to eat the rest of google search now it's a little bit unclear what the financial impact of that will be i think like you guys are saying there'll be probably more searches because search gets more useful there's fewer blue links to click on but maybe they'll get you know compensated through those like relevant ads hard to say you're probably right that google ultimately benefits here but let's not pretend this was a deliberate strategy on their point they got dragged kicking and screaming into this by innovation of perplexity and other companies yep they had no idea they got caught completely flat-footed and they've now i guess caught up by copying perplexity and sucks for perplexity i think they're kind of screwed now unless they get it's over an acquisition deal exactly but perplexity came up with the idea of

SPEAKER_170: having citations in having a comprehensive search result yeah which was something search result with

SPEAKER_80: citations and related questions and right they did it extremely well and quite frankly all google had to do was copy them now they've done that yeah and i think it does look like a killer and by the

SPEAKER_209: way this was all something that i saw 15 years ago when i did mahalo which was my human powered search

SPEAKER_00: engine and which i had copied or been inspired by neighbor and down in korea they were the first ones to do this you know which i'm up because there were only three or four markets where google couldn't displace the number one korea russia japan russia had um what was the russian search engine god i can't remember now japan had yahoo japan uh which masayoshi-san had carved out it was never part of it and they were loyal to that and very nationalistic koreans and very innovative folks at daum and naver

SPEAKER_397: just made search that was so amazing you do a search and be like here's music here's images here's answers here's q a it was awesome but you know it just shows you like you need to have a lot

SPEAKER_262: of wherewithal and timing is everything as an entrepreneur my timing was 10 years too early and the wrong technology i used humans not ai because ai didn't work 15 years ago one thing i would say

SPEAKER_149: about big companies like a google or microsoft is that the power of your monopoly determines how many mistakes you get to make so think about microsoft completely missed iphone remember and they like

SPEAKER_80: they screwed up the whole smartphone mobile phone era and it didn't matter didn't matter satya comes in blows this thing up to a three trillion dollar public company same thing here with google they completely screwed up ai they invented the transformer completely missed llms then they had that fiasco where you know they have george washington black george washington doesn't matter they can make 10 mistakes but their monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying the innovator and they're probably going to become a five billion dollar company now sorry five trillion

SPEAKER_52: dollar company it reminds me you know the greatest product creation company in history i think we all

SPEAKER_136: know who that was and take a look down memory lane here are the 20 biggest felt apple products of

SPEAKER_00: all time uh the apple lisa macintosh portable we all remember the newton which was their pda the 20th anniversary macintosh super sexy people don't remember they had their own video game i i was

SPEAKER_03: at a conference a couple years ago that jeff bezos spoke at i think he's given this talk in a couple other places you could probably find it on the internet but he talks about amazon's legacy of failure and how they had the fire phone and the fire this and the fire that and he's like our job is to fail big swings we have to make these blunders but what makes us successful is that we learn from the failures and you know we make the right next decision yeah but i say if you're a startup

SPEAKER_573: and you make big failures you usually just go out of business one and done yeah but this is how you

SPEAKER_48: stay this is how you say this but this is how you stay competitive if you're a big founder-led tech

SPEAKER_03: company the only way you're going to have a shot at staying relevant is to take big shots that you're going to fail at i just don't know you can't just you have to do things that you're going to fail

David Sacks: right remember this boom this is one of the huge difference between startups and big companies is that big companies can afford to have a portfolio of products they have a portfolio of bets some of

SPEAKER_149: them will work and that keeps the company going startup really has to go all in on their best idea totally i always tell founders just go all in on your best idea they're always asking me for permission to pivot and i always tell them do go for the best idea don't don't hedge

SPEAKER_80: don't try to do five things at once just go all in on your best idea yeah yeah and if it doesn't

SPEAKER_441: work you reboot and start with a new table you're gonna go all in so to speak another amazing episode is in the can the boys are in a good mood you got your great episode no guests this week just all

SPEAKER_136: bestie all the time and very important the march to a million continues halfway there you got us there fans we hit 500 000 subbies on youtube which means you all learned a live q a with your besties coming at you in the next couple of weeks we're going to do it live on youtube so if you're not one of the first 500 get in there now so you get the alert we're going to take your questions live it's going to be dangerous any questions no questions uh who knows what could happen on a live show and

SPEAKER_121: by the way i just want to let you know that phil helmuth breaking news phil helmuth and draymond green just resigned from open ai we didn't get into that but the open ai resignations continue phil helmuth

SPEAKER_371: has tweeted he's no longer with open ai you guys like my baby cashmere pink sweat it's pretty great

SPEAKER_397: are we going to get summer chamatsu now the buttons coming down are you going to go linen the when

SPEAKER_216: does linen chamath show up the unbuttoning is about to happen in the next two or three weeks the great

SPEAKER_397: unbuttoning this is how you know it's kind of like groundhog day you know that summer's here

SPEAKER_588: when you lose your buttons almost memorial day when after memorial day memorial day the button can come

SPEAKER_131: down yeah we're going to go three buttons down i'll still be wearing my black t uh sax will still

SPEAKER_590: be blue blazer blue shirt red tie and freeberg in fields of gold look at freeberg and fields of gold taking us out staying fields of gold coming at you two for tuesday see all the next solid pod for the sultan of science the rain man david sax and chairman dictator i am the z 100 morning zoo dj we'll see

SPEAKER_604: you next time love you boys bye bye bye bye and now the plugs the all-in summit is taking place in los

SPEAKER_121: angeles on september 8th through the 10th you can apply for a ticket at summit.allinpodcast.co scholarships will be coming soon you can actually see the video of this podcast on youtube youtube.com at all in or just search all in podcast and hit the alert bell and you'll get updates when we post and we're going to do a party in vegas my understanding when we hit a million subscribers so look for that as well you can follow us on x x.com slash the all in pod tick tock is all underscore in underscore talk instagram the all in pod and on linkedin just search for the all in podcast you can follow chamath at x.com slash chamath and you can sign up for a sub stack at

SPEAKER_207: chamath.substack.com i do freeberg can be followed at x.com freeberg and ohalo is hiring click on the careers page at ohalo genetics.com and you can follow sacks at x.com david sacks sacks recently spoke at the american moment conference and people are going crazy for it it's pinned to his tweet on his x profile i'm jason calacanis i am x.com slash jason and if you want to see pictures of my bulldogs and the food i'm eating go to instagram.com slash jason in the first name club you can listen to my other podcasts this week in startups just search for it on youtube or your favorite podcast player we are hiring a researcher apply to be a researcher doing primary research and working with me and producer

SPEAKER_121: nick working in data and science and being able to do great research finance etc all in podcast.co slash research it's a full-time job working with us the besties and really excited about my investment

SPEAKER_136: in athena go to athena wow see you know wow.com and get yourself a bit of a discount from your boy jay cow beenawild.com we'll see you all next time on the all in podcast