SPEAKER_00: hey everybody i got a lot of energy today i'm in the zone i am in the zone molly and we have a full docket you've been working so hard with our three producers making these beautiful dockets what's

Jason Calacanis: on the docket for today i know we have such a good show today i have a lot of energy too i played a little basketball on the street like it was the suburbs on a summer night with my child last night and i like nice woke up so refreshed i want to get a little street ball going now that i lost the

SPEAKER_07: way i could do it really turns out i'm not good at that got a little practicing to do there's a

SPEAKER_10: little box behind the basket just put the ball into that box and you got a pretty good chance of

Jason Calacanis: it yeah going in it's fine you know up close it's the further away i get the ah yeah harder it gets

SPEAKER_15: turns out all right so uh we got a lot going on the show today we're going to get to the crypto collapse don't worry but first we're going to dig into the creator economy which is still red hot youtube shorts has almost as many users as tick tock and twitch is making some changes in how they pay creators to stay in that game got it and uh this is where we get to the bad news the crypto contagion is continuing looks a lot like the actual contagion movie at this point is taking companies out we will give an update on the hedge fund three arrows capital yikes celsius i also want to check

SPEAKER_21: in on uh sailor the guy from micro strategies he's supposed to have a margin call at 21 and i saw we dip below 21 to 20 000 so i need to know if he got margin call because that seems like that could take the contagion woof in a very dark place uh and you know what we can't get through a show without talking about the aliens they're coming apparently i mean if 2020 through 2022 has not been crazy enough with trump the pandemic everything aliens apparently china thinks it has received a signal from a more advanced species than us so it's going to get interesting it's going to be a great show stick

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SPEAKER_15: all right we're kicking off today with something that is neither crypto nor layoffs although we will get there do not worry but there is and it's just interesting still plenty of heat in the creator economy and youtube is doing its best to catch up to tick tock and evidently it's working according to the wall street journal youtube shorts which felt a little bit like one of those facebook copycat things yes um is evidently gaining ground on tick tock google disclosed that youtube shorts had one and a half billion monthly active users out of its two billion plus monthly users so that's wild pretty much the size of tick tock now third-party analysts estimate uh that tick tock is about 1.6 billion monthly active users so google just like using that scale and apparently creator lock-in to be like no we're

SPEAKER_34: not having it not them right out of the sky yeah i mean tick tock is at 1.6 billion monthly active users

SPEAKER_21: but obviously it's owned by byte dance they are based in china they are banned i believe in india and some other countries and they they should be i i know people love the product the product is quite addicting it's very elegant and you know got a lot of great features but honestly now that youtube's got to stop and running i think the government needs to really think and and hold the chinese government to reciprocity if we allow tick tock here they need to allow youtube there and if they don't allow youtube there we need to turn off tick tock here because you know there's all these rules we have for companies here that the united states companies have to play by and you know china doesn't

SPEAKER_35: have to and we have no ability to enforce any of those rules we don't know what they're doing with user data they're not going to be listed on public markets here in all likelihood you know if dd and the other companies so molly like do you think we should even allow tick tock in this country if it's

SPEAKER_36: being used by a communist country to spy on our citizens well in the interest of journalism i should

SPEAKER_15: say that tick tock claims claims that its servers for its u.s product are located in the united states there's an american ceo okay and that the data is not being shared back and forth yeah you believe

SPEAKER_43: that as it like knowing what you know about the chinese government do you believe that chances that's actually true definitely not however chances are you say that that's they do claim that god you know

SPEAKER_15: it's such a hard question because on the one hand yes that all makes sense and we don't and and the data collection is extreme yeah on the other hand the data collection is not any more than u.s companies are doing and tick tock has come along as basically the only real competition that we've seen in a long time that has potentially forced some better behavior maybe by some of these other giants so i i i'm really torn between my sense of the importance of competition hmm and this sense of like an uh what is so far a very undefined harm right like even the harm is undefined in some ways well it is undefined like what what could what could china do with this data

SPEAKER_52: oh great great question so what china could do with this data is they can know the location and they could have access to the camera rolls of uh every person in our government's children

SPEAKER_35: and then they could uh use that to uh do corporate uh or espionage where they could use things that are

SPEAKER_21: on a child's phone or a young adult's phone to then blackmail the parents or that young adult and if you've watched the americans uh the amazing amc tv show uh which goes into you know russian spy techniques um it is incredibly easy to compromise a person um all you have to do is have compromise on the person and so they could easily get compromise on anybody in their system and the idea that the ceo here in the united states you know claims the stuff's on a u.s server you know when things get backed up to some third party to some other server or reports get made you don't know what's going back to the chinese government and the chinese government um has the keys to the kingdom in these other chinese company why would they make an exception with this one and then there's also the algorithm programming our kids so if they're programming our kids to be you know against american ideals or values who know or just be distracted and not focused on their careers

SPEAKER_12: science and technology i know this sounds crazy but psyops is a big part of um you know international spying and warfare and they can basically program our kids video programs people we know that so how they you know program the algorithm uh you know they could take things like let's say the russians did um gun ownership uh abortion um slavery reparations uh and race in the united states the russians were using those specific topics to create um division between americans in fact i think the correct me if i'm wrong here the entire protest um with those tiki torches i believe it was that one somebody fact checked me if i'm wrong but there was a lot of evidence of them creating facebook groups and sending either side of one of those contentious issues here in america right um and they were sending people to it to create and ferment this division in our country which then

SPEAKER_14: distracts us and makes us look terrible on a global stage so they can do that just like the russians

SPEAKER_15: 100 to be fair all that happened on facebook and kind of still is so you know in terms of perpetrating that specific harm tick tock might be a more targeted weapon and they have more easily accessible and they have more control over it but all of that is definitely still happening on facebook so yeah i mean yeah but they didn't the chinese don't control facebook

SPEAKER_21: the platform or the algorithm right you can be sure that that algorithm uh you know if the chinese government wants to have influence on that algorithm they can the u.s ceo wouldn't even know the u.s ceo wouldn't know they they could have 20 people working there who also have worked for the chinese military they could be doing all kinds of options remember as you're saying here molly even

SPEAKER_64: american companies can get infiltrated we had people from saudi arabia who had infiltrated twitter so they were working there and they were getting information i think even dms and somebody can fact

SPEAKER_21: check me on that one as well but there was that story of they were getting account information back

SPEAKER_64: to the kingdom that's incredibly dangerous especially if people have anonymous accounts so to your point

SPEAKER_21: molly if we if if foreign actors can infiltrate twitter and facebook um and do that effectively what can they do with the platform they fully control but back to youtube and you know how much money this is making and how big this is um this to me seems like a no-brainer for youtube to win this

SPEAKER_64: race because if you're a creator you're maintaining two accounts which maintain means you're maintaining

SPEAKER_35: two different sets of follower accounts and you know if if we have x number of people we have two hundred and ninety eight thousand subscribers here on this week in startups i think all in has over

SPEAKER_21: 200 as well so you know you're not you're not starting from zero so every creator who hasn't started their tick tock account well and you know there's probably more that haven't really invested

SPEAKER_64: in tick tock because they're busy over on youtube well now they're going to start at youtube and where you originate your content creation is super important uh getting people off of tick tock and then getting them to post again to youtube that's hard but getting the people already on youtube and saying hey here's your new feature is great my question is why don't they have a youtube shorts dedicated app for just creating yeah and just consuming there should be a dedicated app just for this and they should just do shorts and they should make it youtube shorts so if you want to waste time and just do that you can and then if you want to see the other longer form videos you click and it opens up youtube so now you get two swings at bat where's the shorts do they have one i don't

SPEAKER_15: know but that is so smart i mean that's how you take out tick tock and then then you can then if you're the government you can ban tick tock without starting a youth riot because that is what would happen now but if you're like oh there's this alternative here and there's this alternative over here and that's fine yeah yeah absolutely um i love that idea it feels like that might be coming or should arrive now that they have shown this success already with shorts because lumping it all in it's just hard to find it's hard youtube still honestly youtube's uh achilles tendon still is killer it's it's achilles heel thanks yeah is um which i think the heel i think the Achilles is actually attended it isn't that's what it means like nobody ever says Achilles tendon because heel sounds cooler but what it really means is you cut that tendon you can't walk anymore you're done

SPEAKER_07: yes yes as we know all too well oh poor clay oh but he's back he had a good game he's back he's back we're done just still it's just ptsd just ptsd a lot of ptsd yeah i i can't even remember what i

SPEAKER_15: was oh oh their their Achilles heel still is interface like youtube is still just looks like crap it's like

SPEAKER_21: amazon like why is it such a crappy experience i think it's because you can navigate or navigate around it so easily that changing it is just too high risk it's just too high risk i am surprised none of the larger sites have been able to make a youtube competitor it seems to me that it would be possible to build a you know a youtube competitor um but i'm surprised people haven't um i will say get the youtube premium do you have youtube premium for whatever bucks a month to take the

Jason Calacanis: ads out yet so this is really funny because every time my son makes me watch a youtube video and an

SPEAKER_15: ad comes up i'm like why don't we have youtube premium and then i never sign up it's just sign

SPEAKER_35: up i think it's youtube.com premium i hate to do a free ad for them but i think it's i think it's as simple as that and there's a family plan so i'm getting the family plan and then because i'm now i just got new ipads for the six-year-olds and so now i'm gonna have everybody on ad free services because i just don't want them programmed by all these ads i think your kids start coming to you asking for weird stuff um and it's just better to not have them on that consumption train so

SPEAKER_54: slash premium i'm opening it up over here anyway it is deeply fascinating it's it's cool to see

SPEAKER_15: this competition especially since you know instagram i think reels has been like okay but people don't

SPEAKER_64: like it it's like real story is for the olds yeah reels is i'm starting to hit more reels and i find myself swiping through three or four um so i think the real and i keep getting upsold i'm not a um i'm not verified i just asked to be verified on instagram dude i've asked like 30 times to be verified and they just ignore me did you do it through the interface yeah oh yeah yeah so i just did it through the interface because people keep making crypto accounts and so they're sliding to people's dms like hey it's jcal want to send me a bitcoin and i'll send you back too and i'm just

SPEAKER_111: like there's anybody who falls for this um but i kind of need one now if you like delighting customers

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SPEAKER_12: that's incredible is the revenue story for bite dance i this is new information to me because the ads on bite dance are terrible i i would never click on any of them i don't think they provide any value

SPEAKER_35: but apparently i'm wrong has anybody in the in the we're on the youtube chat live here with 342 people

SPEAKER_12: watching the show live at youtube.com slash this weekend if you want to join us every day 10 a.m pacific time um has anybody ever clicked on an ad i'm just asking the the notie gang people have notifications

SPEAKER_35: turned on molly has anybody ever clicked on an ad at tick tock and bought something or seen an ad on

SPEAKER_12: tick tock and bought that product or use that service i have never done that i don't get the sense that that the ads were but apparently am i correct that they hit 10 billion in revenue uh more than

SPEAKER_15: that i think well year three 2021 revenue was 58 billion dollars that's all youtube that's all of bite dance so that's not just that's not necessarily broken out by tick tock and that's the one the hard one to see um this chart is revenue over time after hitting 10 billion in revenue bite dance it looks

SPEAKER_127: like hit that 10 billion in year one of its existence year three oh no no no no year three

SPEAKER_60: it's at like almost 60. yeah that's crazy yeah and it's revenue i mean and again bite dance is made

SPEAKER_15: up of a lot of different things and in fact in china it's not even called tick tock it's like an app by a completely different name and there is much more of a live stream shopping culture in china yeah you

SPEAKER_132: know what this chart is this chart's an interesting chart um we should pull it up here to share with

SPEAKER_21: the nodies this chart is once you've hit 10 billion who knows what year that is that would take like five years or something but when you did hit 10 billion what happened after that so the slope after 10 billion is what this chart so year zero here is not the year that amazon apple google and microsoft started this is just their growth curve so you see yeah microsoft just grew slow and steady after they hit 10 billion years you know the next five the next five years after hitting 10 billion so that was probably in the 80s right or maybe early 90s and google you see another slope you know tripling in five years microsoft basically doubling in five years and then you see amazon quadrupling or more tesla

SPEAKER_95: going 6x since hitting 10 billion so this is the slope after hitting 10 billion so this is hyperscale right

SPEAKER_124: right and by dance the slope is bananas as of may of this year so last month uh there was a story

SPEAKER_15: saying that tick tock is on track to triple its ad revenue this year surpassing the revenue of twitter and snap combined tick tock only tick tock not just by dance uh its ad revenue was going to triple from 3.8 billion in 2021 to 11.6 billion in 2022 200 percent that's nuts um see here's the thing those

SPEAKER_21: numbers don't lie um you you can't hit 10 billion if the advertisers are not getting value yeah right like they must be getting some value it's not a fad and i think this is where i was wrong about facebook i thought facebook advertising was going to be doa because who wants to have an ad between like the conversation and photos of people and i was right because the ads got so few clicks the click

SPEAKER_64: rate was like a 10th of the or maybe a 50th of the ads getting clicked on google so when compared to

SPEAKER_95: google's click-through rate it was absurdly low so we all thought in the industry social media

SPEAKER_21: advertising is going to suck what we didn't realize was oh my god people are spending a lot more time on this social network than they are on a google search right google search you just you get in and out the the better a job google does either advertising or organic results the quicker you leave google right if you're hanging around google search it means you didn't find what you want and you're still going through the menu right with social media you are just spending hours and hours on there so therefore even if it has a lower click-through rate you're going to get a lot more time and you're

SPEAKER_12: going to understand the person's psychographics a fancy way of saying like what they think about and

SPEAKER_20: what they're into you know their hobbies their interests the targeting is going to be so specific

SPEAKER_12: yeah over time we underestimated what the algorithm could do in serving your next ad or serving ads to your your friend group so if one person in your friend group let's say our friend group molly you know like somebody's talking about i don't know podcasting microphones and you and i are friends and tom merritt's in there and kai risdahl's in there and joe rogan's you know in there and it's just you know an orbit of people on a social graph it starts showing the ads to our friends well we have friends who are in podcasting or in radio and all of a sudden those ads perform better and it's all because one of us you know went to the facebook page for you know this new podcasting microphone and then it's like okay if you went to that page and you spent three minutes on it and you interacted and asked and asked two questions on it let's try the hundred people you're closest to oh that worked let's try the hundred people each of them are closest to and all of a sudden you have the graph of every podcaster in the world yep and nobody knows how it happened it just happened magically through the app i mean just think about how revolutionary that was and we all missed it in the industry

SPEAKER_15: it's terrifying and that is why i got it yeah oh yeah 100 the the value of the social graph specifically like they used to talk about the social graph and it would be like blah blah blah i don't know what you're talking about and what it really meant is exactly what you just described yeah that that it that you will start to get ads that feel like they read your mind

SPEAKER_21: exactly and this is why people think their phone is being listened to because we might all be at

SPEAKER_64: a party and somebody starts talking about hey this new podcasting microphone that you know uses usbc and it's great for travel and it whatever has battery life and you can take it on the road

SPEAKER_21: well it sounds like a pretty good microphone they should make one uh imagine if you had a

SPEAKER_64: podcasting mic that had a battery in it and it was usbc and you could just take it and do feel reporting with it that'd be kind of dope i want that i don't want that somebody they do have

SPEAKER_60: that a company called yellow makes it really i got to use it at marketplace yep and does it record

SPEAKER_64: like on a chip right into the microphone as well um yeah this is an all-in-one portable microphone

SPEAKER_95: records right into the device i have an even better one put wi-fi in it and put a little camera in it

SPEAKER_35: and then let me use it for uh man on the street sorry to use a sexist term what's the other term

SPEAKER_157: that's a fancy latin term uh vox populi box pop vox pop thank you uh for that yellow person on the

SPEAKER_21: street um imagine person on the street where we would live stream it so it had a evdo it had an ev

SPEAKER_64: it had a 5g connection in it now i could be interviewing people on the street with a microphone and

SPEAKER_35: you would be recording in high fidelity with a camera in it that would be a great device that would be amazing all right anyway i'm sorry i'm good but anyway yellow we would be talking about that by the

SPEAKER_64: way we would be talking about that we would be talking about that and then we'd think and then we'd see ads and it wouldn't be that we saw ads it'd be one of us went on our phone and searched for it and then everybody else was in the social group and then we all got the ads in the next

SPEAKER_15: 24 hours right so just so you know that's working or someone somewhere in the world who was connected to podcasting groups had bought that microphone and it was like oh i noticed i mean it's actually way worse than it listening it's like oh i noticed that all these people in the same social graph were in the same location because it knows our location yeah so i see that a bunch of you were just at a party where i can infer that you were probably talking about some podcasting

SPEAKER_62: so let me like pop this ad up immediately because you're all in the mood yeah if you're a startup you

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SPEAKER_15: youtube and the tick tock competition and also while all of that is happening twitch is trying to get in this game in an even more real way keep creators on its platform keeping them from bailing to youtube uh twitch is expanding its ad incentive program for creators to be exactly in line with the youtube's split so earlier this year twitch i think had not even been paying creators it was like you can make money with merch or tips or sort of real-time donations earlier this year twitch started paying

SPEAKER_154: a flat like a cost per mile of just a payout for one thousand per one thousand ad impressions

SPEAKER_177: cpm is the classic term for this in advertising if folks haven't heard of it cpm cost per m being thousand in uh was that roman or something oh yeah not cost per miles are mille

SPEAKER_129: cost per mille yeah per thousand so anyway i was paying a cpm to uh twitch streamers so if you got

SPEAKER_15: you know a thousand ad impressions you'd get a certain amount of money now they're switching to the split the 55 ad revenue split on the ads and then letting more creators join that program god and have that opportunity to get paid which to me shows both growth in creator interest on twitch but also twitch's realization that if they want to stay competitive you have to pay creators this is actually one of the big knocks on instagram and reels is they really don't have much of a creator or haven't historically had much of a creator um focus so that if you were an instagram star you

SPEAKER_127: were only making money on external deals and merch not an ad split yeah uh i this is a strategic

SPEAKER_35: mistake on amazon's part um if youtube gives 55 it costs them nothing to give 60 or 65 so why not make it a 10 better deal um why would you go at the exact split it costs you nothing to do 60 or what they could say is we'll give you this is what i would have done i would have said in year one we're going to go at 90 percent uh for creators and then we're going to go down five percent a year and then we're going to uh wind up at 70 30. so we really want for the next couple of years to really incentivize you we're going to give you the bulk overwhelming bulk of the revenue we're just going to cover our costs and then we're going to go down five percent to what we think is a sustainable split of 70 30. this is what facebook should have done um or twitter should have done twitter never really opened up their ad um you know sharing they do put ads in front of select people like you know cbs or something uh their videos those pre-rolls you've seen them on twitter yeah totally i don't as a verified user we don't get as many ads so i go to my other account at jason calacanis my full name and i check

SPEAKER_187: there to see uh what the ad mix looks like but i think you get a lot more of those ads

SPEAKER_15: yeah no i think you you make uh an excellent point that there was a chance to actually not just win profile high profile streamers back because a lot of them have left they either left for youtube

SPEAKER_127: or like ninja went to mixer which then up and died yeah they gave ninja like 100 million or 50 million

SPEAKER_191: it was some crazy deal and then they shut it down and had to pay them off yeah yeah crazy but so all

SPEAKER_15: these creators left so you could have potentially gotten them back and then according to surge dog one of our noties watching us on youtube he said i saw a ton of twitch streamers complain that this would actually lower their earnings because if you have a really really high cpm payout because you got tons and tons of viewers then this will actually so on the one hand great that they're giving more creators more opportunity to make money but if it's a pay cut for the creators on the program and they're already

SPEAKER_154: pissed that's a miss also yeah come on twitch get in the game no pun intended

SPEAKER_111: uh you know it's it's hard when you're owned by a big company to actually be aggressive because you

SPEAKER_35: have a bunch of middle managers running the place they all report into somebody they all have

SPEAKER_197: you know some tps report or some north star metric and they have to get levels of approval

SPEAKER_35: i'm not sure how independent twitch is but they set up youtube to be highly you know independent and susan mojeki is uh you know ceo for that reason so that they can make their own decisions this feels like they're not being aggressive enough in a really aggressive environment they should be super super aggressive and they should make the ad deal much more aggressive but okay um it's it's nice to see all this activity supporting creators and it's one of the things just when you think about employment in the world one of the great things that's happened in america uh specifically is we

SPEAKER_21: keep with this incredible creativity and entrepreneurial spirit we have in america

SPEAKER_199: uh we keep coming up with new ideas for jobs totally new economies yeah it's like so cool there's a whole group of people it's it's probably now there's probably a million people in the united states or a

SPEAKER_21: half million people whose job is to work on a podcast right there are eight or nine people working on this podcast so there are nine people employed you know over the last 12 years you know we're gonna hit

SPEAKER_64: 1500 episodes soon um i'm gonna have a party for that 1500th party let's do it let's do it um so anyway just think about that and then you think there's people who are getting paid to play video games and then think there's people who are getting paid to make short funny videos where they do 30 second dance moves so dancers that was known as a terrible job right yeah like for everybody who

SPEAKER_12: wanted to get paid to dance like okay you could be on tour with madonna or you could you know i don't know new york ballet like nobody shows up like dancers didn't get paid a lot of money i mean maybe there are there's a category of dancers that get paid a lot of money i understand but

SPEAKER_205: putting that aside uh you know adult dancers yeah you did not you're really trying you could

SPEAKER_207: just let it go i'm trying to think about the entire economy red flag red flag okay i i'm not don't call

SPEAKER_209: hr molly if you you know what if you like i knew that was coming when the grin started to totally see

SPEAKER_192: it here's a tip for you i call it the nine-year-old test if you don't specify it then you pass the nine-year-old test because they're not gonna you don't have to like put this whole time some dancing

SPEAKER_43: okay this is molly she's like i said i'm calling hr beep beep boop hey it's jake out

SPEAKER_123: now i'm like here it comes nice jake hall brought up strippers on the show i mean strippers i'm literally talking about strippers here but anyway if you look at dancing there are more people being

SPEAKER_64: paid to dance on youtube or you know other platforms i guess people don't get paid to dance

SPEAKER_217: on tick tock yet but they probably have other opportunities to monetize yeah if you're charlie

SPEAKER_219: d'amelio you make nothing from tick tock but you get like okay yeah a show charlie d'amelio

SPEAKER_220: the highest earning tick tock creator 2021 according to a report is raking in approximately 17.5 17 million dollars and there's a story forbes they're the new

Jason Calacanis: kardashians like this family the d'amelios is the new kardashians like they're they've got like shows

SPEAKER_15: and there's like she's 18 her sister's in on it like it's a whole oh no it's i my son showed me charlie d'amelio years ago and i was like i feel uncomfortable

Jason Calacanis: no that's it that's a big dancer she's a good dancer like it's not like the thing that you're talking about yeah but it's also these are very provocative dances i just as a parent

SPEAKER_21: at what age do you allow your kids to have a tick tock molly that's for people who are in the chat what age should a kid be able to publish to tick tock i mean most people say get a phone at i think

SPEAKER_12: the age i'm told is 14 or 15 is when people get their mobile phone oh really yeah some people get

Jason Calacanis: it as young as 12. according to coppa the child children's online privacy and protection act okay

SPEAKER_15: 13 is the age at which kids are legally allowed to create their own accounts before that they cannot

SPEAKER_143: they can't create their own account they're not creating account means you can then make content and share it with the world and potentially go viral right so let's pause on that i let my son create

SPEAKER_42: social media accounts that had to be private got it's not about public public accounts okay um and

SPEAKER_21: then public accounts and posting to them at what age i see in the chat people are saying 14 18 iphone at seven oh that's way too young uh yeah this is this is what i'm trying to figure out like i am

SPEAKER_12: you know i have three daughters and like all their friends are talking about tick tock or tick tock comes up and you know i'm not a square and i was saving the technology industry but it just feels like far too young because your your your frontal lobes we've talked about this before on the program molly are not

SPEAKER_35: fully developed until you're 21 22 23 yeah if you publish something on there and it's inappropriate and

SPEAKER_00: then it goes viral and then you become known by it like this could have serious repercussions

SPEAKER_15: yeah i mean i what i one thing i do appreciate appreciate about like my son and his cohort is that they seem to really really understand the value of ephemeral posting like they're into the platform they do stories you know they delete all their instagrams they don't have a like corpus of digital life like had if if the internet had existed when i was growing up career over right like and and i'm

Jason Calacanis: extremely mild relatively speaking and they just don't they seem to sort of innately they're not

SPEAKER_15: trying to build up an archive that future employers will be able to search they're sort of sharing with their friends they're doing a lot more in group chat they're doing a lot with stories and disappearing messages and i don't think that it's they don't they don't show the past if you will i mean my son will post a couple things to instagram and like delete them all i'm like oh it's just not the

Jason Calacanis: same it's not the same usage pattern so i sort of feel like applying our version of how we interacted

SPEAKER_15: with social like they're growing up with it in a different way and growing into it in a different way that i think is interesting to watch not that it can't be damaging i just think it's it's very

SPEAKER_35: different how they use it yeah i'm just concerned about young people creating content with the potential of it going viral and then you become famous at the age of 15 for something and then i

SPEAKER_12: don't know what trajectory does that put you on in life like it could go either way right like if it is something super positive there's a youtube channel where um a kid unboxes toys you know about that one oh yeah and my kids watch it sometimes and it like it's become fabulously famous but this kid was very young and i was like my kids wanted to do like hey can we do unboxing videos it's like yeah sure we

SPEAKER_21: can do an unboxing video and i was like we can make one of those and we could just watch it on our ipads

SPEAKER_15: i wasn't going to publish it ryan toy review ryan toy ryan toys review yeah this and that's been a whole there have been like really upsetting stories about his parents hoarding the money like it's a it's a it's a little bit of a yeah there's a lot yeah i guess there's a child maybe this isn't a

SPEAKER_255: new thing like there have been child acting laws exactly it's all the same stuff i mean it really

Jason Calacanis: is all the same stuff and if you're putting your kid up for clicks because they're you know and your

SPEAKER_15: pets and and all of those things it's but it it is what i realized covering the creator economy is it's all the same it's agents you know it's like marketing deals it's are you trying to get into target and it's a it's always it's the same tiny number of people who get really really famous and

SPEAKER_42: make a lot of money as it's always been just a different platform it's so interesting you know

SPEAKER_187: i just did a google search for ryan's toy reviews and literally the drop down was like child labor uh so yeah i think yeah this is uh interesting yep it's all evolving like right before our very eyes uh one of the producers had uh it looks like just a cursory research online 29 million dollars for

SPEAKER_35: ryan's story reviews in 2019. so if the kid then winds up with tens of millions of dollars in a trust fund is that a bad thing i'm not sure um i i guess it's okay depends on how screwed up he is right i would like to if um just notice and maybe for the producers i'd like to talk to a child labor lawyer slash uh person who does this or maybe an agent or somebody who's an expert on this i think

SPEAKER_12: it'd be an interesting topic right yeah like how how do they advise people doing this because again to my original point pretty great that uh we creating all these jobs but it's almost like it's too easy

SPEAKER_35: and you could have kids you know becoming famous or creating businesses i don't mind them creating

SPEAKER_264: businesses but i'm concerned about the fame thing like what does that do to a young child's mind but

SPEAKER_35: it's a different level of fame it's a global level of fame right yeah it's not like being on like a tv series level of maybe it's like probably 100x that and it's the comments and the all the comments you

SPEAKER_267: know yeah i mean hopefully they're being protected from that but oh wow 32.6 million subs listen right

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SPEAKER_94: the federal reserve approved the largest interest rate increase since 1994 and signaled it would

SPEAKER_35: continue lifting rates this year at the most rapid pace in decades as it races to slow the economy and combat inflation that is running at a 40 year high officials agreed to a 0.75 percentage we knew that

SPEAKER_264: was a possibility yeah uh rate raise at the two day policy meeting that concluded wednesday which will increase the feds benchmark federal funds rate to a range between 1.5 1.75 that's a good thing right

SPEAKER_14: um i think i guess slow i guess the goal is to slow spending this just feels like we're slamming on the

SPEAKER_15: brakes we floored it you know just feels really um yeah i don't know i'm i'm curious about this right because like there are definitely some people are saying okay this is good it's going to show that the fed is taking this really seriously um immediately after the news you know the dow is up a little bit the s p is down very slightly i think that this is probably what what one percent yeah yeah this is sort of what like markets were saying that they are fine with yeah they expected it i also just and they expected it and they're happy because it doesn't prolong things in their minds what i don't know is how you know this also makes like housing even less accessible it isn't going to do anything about you know monopolies that control baby formula and tampons it's not going to do anything about the war it can't can't deal with like china's code policies like i sort of we had already even before the pandemic entered a phase where the feds tools were somewhat limited and there was even like a piece that was just like look amazon controls pricing more than the fed at this point yeah and i just am like is this just going to put money out of reach for americans who are already suffering but not do anything about the underlying things that are causing this disruption i guess if less people are

SPEAKER_12: trying to buy a good or service the price comes down so if you get rid of the demand side so you don't have as many people originating mortgages you will have less competition for homes and and that's like a really peculiar environment because you have with homes um a limited supply so that that's also distorted but i guess the the theory here is we're going to try to get inflation to slow down and i i see it everywhere i'm going now people are talking about the price of things and they're

SPEAKER_14: adjusting their behavior accordingly yeah um uh you know it assumes that the price of things is really

SPEAKER_15: just controlled by supply and demand though right like the the price of oil and baby formula and apparently tampons is all about is not like a it's not a free-flowing supply situation it's like a couple of companies control that and if they screw up their factory or they decide to turn off production or you know now you have biden literally being like i guess i'll meet with mbs even though he chops people up and i said i never would but we need oil like it's just yeah wait a second it's uh looks like

SPEAKER_35: um yeah nasdaq is in the green right now it looks like it hasn't changed the nasdaq for the day the dow was at a stronger position at the start of the day it's come down a little bit yeah it's basically flat now so interesting um yeah it's not red the only thing that's red is uh crude oil is down one percent so interesting um it's going to be a lot to work through uh but let's work

SPEAKER_38: through the rest of this docket let's do it because we still have a bergillion stories probably more than

SPEAKER_249: we're going to be able to skip the phone and do that tomorrow yeah i think the crypto stuff everybody wants to talk about crypto yeah this is just getting crazy we tried to put off the bad news but

SPEAKER_35: we did man here we go uh it's it is a contagion right i mean i think that's what we're seeing now is the word contagion is important because it means when things start to go bad at one company there is some kind of uh effect to other related companies and i talked about this what three or four months ago with the layoff contagion we now see the layoff contagion has absolutely happened every company

SPEAKER_12: is just making the cuts whether they need to or not they're like look everybody else is doing it we should do it in fact i think brian armstrong kind of pointed to that look everybody else is doing

SPEAKER_35: this um and i was on two board calls yesterday on on both board calls we were talking about brian

SPEAKER_12: armstrong's letter so that is a full-blown contagion and now there's a another contagion happening in crypto so let's talk about that what we saw today so let's start with the biggest ones that

SPEAKER_15: this is i mean talk about contagion i would even argue that this is just an accelerating collapse at this point there's a hedge fund uh calling itself three arrows capital styled as 3ac according to an article published this morning from the crypto news site the block 3ac had close to 10 million dollars in crypto aspects under management at its peak and it may now accord due to margin calls effectively and calls on uh money it was holding maybe on the brink of insolvency we've seen estimates higher and lower than the 10 billion dollars three arrows capital had raised separate funds for venture investments in web3 companies somewhat like a16z's specialized crypto fund its larger holdings i am sorry to report included tara and luna which which went to zero i think went

SPEAKER_177: to zero right yeah insolvent is the last i checked i know they were trying to like resuscitate the corpse

SPEAKER_15: but i think essentially dead essentially dead uh ethereum which is down 50 over the last month avalanche which is down 57 over the last month that's a smart contracts layer one platform that's been focused on speed polka dot which is down about 39 over the last month that's a layer that provides interoperability between different blockchains the tweets out from 3ac have included things like in the process of figuring out how to repay lenders and other counterparties after it was liquidated by top-tier lending firms in the space was that by 3ac or sorry that was not a tweet that was an article

SPEAKER_94: published this morning from the block okay so according to the block 3ac is currently in the process of figuring out how to repay lenders and other counterparties after it was liquidated by top-tier

SPEAKER_00: lending firms in the space so they must have had loans against their crypto they did which is what all these folks are doing this is like such a high-risk maneuver to get levered up because when things come down so you're basically taking for people don't understand leverage sometimes people

SPEAKER_35: will give you like twice as much money to invest and they'll use your bitcoin or whatever cryptocurrency

SPEAKER_21: you own as the collateral if you so you have twice as much money to spend so you can buy twice as much bitcoin and if bitcoin comes down at a certain point they liquidate you because you owe them the money they liquidate you bitcoin goes down because there's more sellers than buyers and that might be what's happening right now it's a bunch of people were levered up and now they're all getting liquidated and that's why we saw bitcoin just plummet to 20 000 and change yeah i think that's exactly what

SPEAKER_15: happened sources according to the block declined to share the names of the firms the lending firms that liquidated uh on the record for fear of reprisal but three people said the liquidation totaled at least 400 million dollars they added that the firm has maintained limited contact with its counterparty since being liquidated wow yeah yeah yeah there was a long thread from an anonymous crypto crypto account um hold kryptonite with 20 tweets and it's sort of like you never know what's real and what's not and yet at the same time people you know people in the crypto space are unbelievably informed sounding about basically financial basics hold kryptonite claims uh these lenders are unprepared for a collapse of this size much like celsius was they claim lenders will withdraw credit by recalling outstanding loans forcing even more large liquidation of coins and that we might see the price of bitcoin go below 10 000 10 000. wow there are a lot of anonymous there are always a lot a lot of anonymous tweet

SPEAKER_12: threads so in the crypto world this one though and so just in terms of like when we cover something

SPEAKER_21: that's anonymous on the program if this thing has trended then you know i think talking about it with the major caveat of like this seems informed but and it's trending and everybody's talking about it but to be clear who knows there could be all kinds of agendas here like this could be a competitor to 3ac you know totally there's all kinds of fun but if something does rise up to going viral now it's become a story so you don't want to cover rumors or anonymous accounts but you have no

SPEAKER_35: choice but to cover them in this new crazy world i think it's not perfect there's so it's so hard to

SPEAKER_20: get information right it's sort of it's all so opaque and these are private companies who are

SPEAKER_15: also doing incredibly complicated financial maneuvering and so sometimes you look wherever

Jason Calacanis: you can will bitcoin go below ten thousand dollars i don't know nobody knows nobody knows it's hard to imagine that but at the same time like as the even just this week has gone on it's getting less and less

SPEAKER_186: hard to imagine anything yeah okay so i mean but straight from the horse's mouth 3ac co-founder uh

SPEAKER_35: uh zu su uh he is z h u s u if you want to follow him on twitter he just says we are in the process of communicating with relevant parties and fully committed to working this out that is super

SPEAKER_21: yeah squirrely like working what it's like no details but i understand like this is unprecedented times

SPEAKER_00: and so this is why regulation um exists in financial markets this is why anonymity does not exist in

SPEAKER_21: financial markets um this is why there are rules of the road this is why uh you know different countries have different um controls in place and you know we clearly do not have enough controls in place in

SPEAKER_35: crypto we knew that this could happen and here's the sad part uh you know who's going to get burned it's going to be retail um it's going to be people who you know heard about this from their cousins brothers sisters roommate they heard about a new project it was going to the moon and you know they they bet too much if you were betting you know as i always say you know if you're betting one two percent of your net worth and you can afford to lose it only bet what you can afford to lose you'll be fine if you start betting you know things that are a significant portion of your net worth you really have to think it through and you always of course need to be diversified so if your house is 50 of your you know if your house and your retirement account are 70 of your net worth

SPEAKER_14: and then 30 is in alternative stuff you own a car that's a classic or something you know i think there's some logical molly blend of these things the problem is people were pressured into making these investments and this is the thing that i complained about and people gave me a hard time about it because i was like listen don't be toxic don't tell people have fun being poor don't create 50 accounts and be bitcoin you know the bitcoin toxicity movement all this stuff is just too dark and

SPEAKER_154: you know and look these companies 100 presented themselves with a financial veneer and a financial

Jason Calacanis: veneer makes people think that their money is protected i mean i remember having to convince almost to the point of yelling yes a marketplace producer that zell isn't fdic insured that there is no protection for venmo payments that you can't get your money back if you send it to the wrong person when something has when something is deals with money interaction yeah there is an expectation of protection because money is serious business and so if you look at you know r slash celsius

SPEAKER_15: you see a bunch of people being like yeah but they're not going to be allowed to just disappear with our coins right they would get sued or i'm sure there's protection isn't the money insured up to some amount

SPEAKER_63: not in the hedge fund i don't think there nobody will give a hedge fund in crypto insurance right like who's taking that insurance and this is where but i mean i'm just talking about these users i'm talking about these retail users who got into this ecosystem yeah believing this stuff is real i think the

SPEAKER_00: veneer of and this you know polishing making it look like a financial product i think is one of the

SPEAKER_35: things that the regulators are going to come down so hard it's going to be a massive overcorrection now yeah because you've just given the high ground to the regulators crypto should have behaved itself it should have regulated itself it should have been cautious it should have you know not used these high pressure tactics people should have spoken up with the laser eye stuff and the have fun being poor

SPEAKER_64: because if you're pressuring people like they're going to miss the boat like yeah you you might actually succeed you're not succeed with me or molly but you might succeed with your grandma your uncle or something because you have some credibility and yeah you 10 extra money or you 100 extra money

SPEAKER_12: if you look at the book i wrote i'm not putting a plug in here but i was very very very careful to

SPEAKER_21: explain to people like a very make the smallest but if you choose to do this and you're an accredited investor make the smallest bets possible on your first 20 investments if you can put 500 into each

SPEAKER_35: startup or a thousand dollars do that and in fact when we run the syndicate or when i had the syndicate on angel list we moved it to the syndicate.com you know we kept the minimum investment very low other people put the minimum investment at 10k 25k per startup i said originally it was 1k

SPEAKER_14: then 2k then 4k and the reason we made a 4k is you can only have 250 people in it um you know per dl so we needed to have a minimum but if people ask like hey can i put a thousand dollars or two thousand dollars into this i just i'm just getting started we'll actually say sure if there's room we'll let you have one of the slots yeah um and so god i'm just so upset that people took advantage of the public

SPEAKER_12: and they just made this entire shadow economy with no rules and you know now people are going to get burned and they were about it like you can you can say that if you want but these guys were jerks about

SPEAKER_02: it they were jokes about it and look when i if i like come into a space and i see where all the jerks

SPEAKER_15: are i don't like to go there and so there is going to be even more schadenfreude and there's going to

Jason Calacanis: be even more crackdown because the arrogance the abusiveness the the the kind of like ponzi scheme for toxic men situation the bullying of it like no one is going to want to help you yes when that's

SPEAKER_353: how you presented yourselves the schadenfreude did i pronounce that correct yeah schadenfreude

SPEAKER_14: schadenfreude is now coming on hard and this clip keeps going viral and i i've been uh tweeting about

SPEAKER_12: it as well because well i mean it's just micro strategy ceo michael sailor oh i'm sorry you're

SPEAKER_124: talking about the micro strategies clip i was like talking about the onion article that just popped up whoo that was a visual oh what's the onion that was a visual disconnect in crypto just wash it wishes

SPEAKER_358: several thousand more people have warned him well played onion well played the onion this is from

SPEAKER_357: april b guy these days but i'll give the onion credit when they hit one that's a great one

SPEAKER_154: thousands of people warned him if only a thousand or even a few hundred more friends had told me about the risk of putting my entire savings into coin i might not be where i am today said branton i love

SPEAKER_00: the onion so i saw this clip with michael sailor and it's him doing an interview with angelo uh robles uh who is the ceo of something called family office association family offices are rich families they typically have a hundred million in net worth for the family and they have to manage multi-generations you know having access to this money um and this has been this has been clipped maybe unfairly to michael um but it's important people know micro strategy ceo michael sailor

SPEAKER_64: um has like a software company that then he started he got bitcoin religion he started buying

SPEAKER_21: bitcoin from this company micro strategy which had nothing to do with bitcoin took out a bunch of loans to buy a ton of bitcoin and then essentially created a backdoor etf right an exchange traded fund because microstrategy's main asset is their bitcoin holdings so that i don't know i don't want to say that's fugazi but it certainly was notably strange um and he started buying a lot of bitcoin and

SPEAKER_12: you know he was one of these people who was super vocal now was he toxic or was he just absurdly enthusiastic but um you know i think uh people are reporting now he's lost a billion dollars because he has some average price in the 30 000 uh you know bitcoin price and because he's a public company people know a lot of these details uh they're down market strata microstrategy

SPEAKER_143: is down 70 year to date 74 over 52 weeks and i thought we'd present this clip in full

SPEAKER_12: mm-hmm and then we'll do the numbers so i want to just play this because i've watched various versions of those clips going around and people are editing it but i think you have to be very careful

SPEAKER_35: uh when giving financial advice and we you know i talk about financial stuff all the time on this pod about angel investing i teach a course angel university i wrote a book about angel investing i've got 11 000 people in the syndicate i take it super seriously i'm very careful

SPEAKER_64: i'm super careful to say only bet what you can afford to lose and if you're an accredited investor which means you're you know the top six percent of the country molly i say go as slow as possible

SPEAKER_21: be as informed as possible try to be diversified and if it was my brother sister cousin a great friend

SPEAKER_00: i would tell them start at one percent of your net worth and if you love it and you're enjoying it maybe you go to two you know after a couple of years and then if you get really good at it you could raise a fund but just be there's no race here right you get rich slowly is always my advice

SPEAKER_371: let's start this clip every dollar is not invested in bitcoin is diluted to your opportunity and every

SPEAKER_373: dollar that's not being the s p is dilutive to your wealth and so if you really want to maximize your opportunity you want to you want to move as much of your liquid capital as close to bitcoin or the bitcoin network as possible because it is this uh monetary network that's going from a trillion and presumably it could be worth 100 trillion or more because the sum total of all money in the world is maybe 400 trillion dollars worth of stocks real estate bonds and the like half of that is looking for a store of value and the other half honestly truly wants to be invested in stocks or bonds or real estate we've lost price discovery in the financial universe so so the single most accretive way to use money or time is invest in bitcoin because you've got a once in a lifetime once in 50 years you know transformation where all of this 200 trillion dollars of money sitting in analog fiat instruments is being encrypted and converted into a digital instrument which is thermodynamically superior right that's the first observation time is money convert your money into bitcoin or something as close to it as you can and the

SPEAKER_52: second time let's pause there for a second so he keeps saying convert your money into bitcoin or

SPEAKER_21: something that is as close to possible right he's talking about microstrategy i think his publicly traded stock because at the time or you know even to this day it's easier to buy a publicly traded stock than it is to get a wallet and cold store or whatever and to buy your own bitcoin right so he's promoting buy bitcoin or something as close to the network as possible i think you know i can't say for sure but i think if an attorney uh in a class action suit was going to watch something the fact that it

SPEAKER_00: keeps saying that if you could rewind it just maybe five seconds i don't know if that's possible

SPEAKER_373: and let's just play it one more time uh and we'll keep commenting start your money into bitcoin or something as close to it as you can and the second time well any time you're spending analyzing it's like it's like go to venezuela analyze every company every piece of real estate every bond index in venezuela and figure out which ones you want to invest in and the answer angelo is it's all a waste of time right everything you're doing if you're analyzing frequencies of a minute a day a week a month that's a waste of time if if i told you i know how it all ends right once you know how it all ends that the only use of time is how do i buy more bitcoin but take all your money buy bitcoin then take all your time figure out how to borrow more money to buy more bitcoin then take all your time and figure out what you can sell to buy bitcoin and if you absolutely love the thing that you're that you don't want to sell it go mortgage your house and buy bitcoin with it and if you've got a business that you love because your family works for the business that's in your family for 37 years and you can't bear to sell it mortgage it finance it and convert the proceeds into the hardest money on earth which is bitcoin so what i would say is use all your time to acquire bitcoin finance entities and weaker currencies to buy bitcoin or educate yourself on why this makes sense if you're not sure and then educate everybody

SPEAKER_378: around you you know if you're working okay let's pause yeah let's pause okay so go ahead for context i

Jason Calacanis: want to say uh the question that was asked here is how do you prioritize your time in a 24-hour day okay and then the answer was use all your time to buy bitcoin okay microstrategy holds 129 218 bitcoin wow that's a lot of bitcoin 4800 the the in all the firm has spent 3.97 billion dollars on bitcoins uh

SPEAKER_15: 4800 of those were purchased for an average price of 44 645 dollars they were bought over you know various periods gosh and as of right now uh according to the street today as we're taping this uh michael sailor's bet on bitcoin now presents a loss of at least 1.2 billion dollars that at least is you know that's his publicly traded company and so if you were an investor in microstrategy that was the bet that you made but i want to underscore again that he's talking to a family office association a bunch of investors and this is the advice that he's giving right now spend all of

SPEAKER_154: your time figuring out how to buy more bitcoin and nothing but it's classic um finding oh you know if

SPEAKER_21: you would if you were to define a ponzi scheme as finding more people to buy into it right um this will be looked at historically if bitcoin goes to a million dollars a coin he'll be looked as profit and that was what he was thinking because you got to remember in context when he made these remarks in

SPEAKER_12: march of 2021 bitcoin was trading you know 59 60 000 and so he was riding a high he had bought in i think i just said like at an average of 44 000 and then he had bought more before that at a lower price um so you know if you're in a year you know doubling your money you all of a sudden feel pretty pretty confident right you got in before everybody well how do you continue to to keep this um ponzi scheme going if you take the most uncharitable version of this well you get more people involved

SPEAKER_21: and telling people that the problem with this is he's so enthusiastic he is in fact very charismatic this is a multi-decade publicly traded ceo he did have an sec enforcement against him previously let's put that aside and given the benefit of the doubt here this is a incredibly sophisticated public market ceo and founder yeah and he is telling people to mortgage their house and a bunch of family office people if they own a family business which is how they wound up having a family office like it could be the lumber company you know from canada or the right you know people own a bunch of kukuroos

SPEAKER_111: in texas or something and he's telling them to take their existing business stop working on it but all your time into bitcoin and mortgage that business to buy bitcoin you the audacity to give financial

SPEAKER_21: advice uh unsolicited financial advice i might add so this is financial advice when you have a horse in the race when you directly benefit from the advice you're giving horses you have all the horses in the race i don't know what percentage of active bitcoin he owns but it's got to be a pretty good percentage

SPEAKER_00: right of like he's got a a not insignificant yeah 150 000 out of what is going to be a lifetime total

SPEAKER_21: of 21 million bitcoin i mean he's got a lot he's got a lot a lot if it's if there's 21 million then 210 000 is one percent right so he's almost one percent of bitcoin but the number of bitcoins out there

SPEAKER_35: like there's a some of these people say like a third of them are dead and in dead wallets so nobody can ever recover them so maybe you know it's maybe there's i don't know and all 21 million have not

SPEAKER_12: been minted yet or something you know a couple of million left yeah so let's just say there's 15 million you know that are actively circulating you know he's got one percent of them yeah so he's

SPEAKER_21: talking his own book but the level of advice he's giving is so dramatic he he could have said bitcoin is brand new it is high risk i'm i've gone all in right i'm convinced for these reasons should you do this is a question you have to ask yourself and you have to do a ton of research and you should do that research yourself and come to your own conclusion and perhaps if i was talking to a friend and they done their research if they put one percent of their net worth into this and they could afford to lose it um you know i could understand them making that bet i've made a much larger bet but i am a high risk taker and you need to make your own decision if you see any videos of me on the internet talking

SPEAKER_12: about angel investing i give a a disclaimer like that all the time every time but he does something so

SPEAKER_00: sinister in this video um which he actually tells you to not do research because it's a waste of time

SPEAKER_64: yeah you go to venezuela you can study all the companies and then place bets and you realize it's a

SPEAKER_21: whole waste of time he's literally saying do not do research on the thing that i bought before you and when you buy it i benefit this to me feels like this video is going to launch when it goes viral because

SPEAKER_64: it's only gone viral amongst us but this video will go viral when bitcoin hits 10k or you know or whatever the bottoming out here is yeah and it's going to result in a class action lawsuit lawsuit because

SPEAKER_21: all of an ambulance chasing a lawyer needs to do is find one person who saw that video and bought bitcoin at 60 000 to launch that class action suit and uh you know this is just disastrous it's disastrous and it's and i'll be honest it's unnecessary and gross um you don't need to be this toxic with people well if you have that conviction right yeah this is not even right this is not advice this

SPEAKER_54: is no longer financial i mean if you look at his twitter feed it's clear that this is really like

SPEAKER_15: fundamentally religious like his pinned tweet alone bitcoin is a swarm of cyber hornets serving the goddess of wisdom feeding on the fire of truth exponentially growing ever smarter faster and stronger behind a wall

SPEAKER_230: of encrypted energy okay i don't know what he smoked when he wrote that look at his profile picture pull up the profile picture oh yeah it's beyond laser eyes he's now gone full like yeah i listen i i get

SPEAKER_21: that it's a bit but it's a bit with 150 000 bitcoin bet behind it combined with giving financial advice right so if he said i believe this you have to come to your own conclusion i this is religion to me i believe that this is going to change the world forever i i get it i'm totally fine with that yeah

SPEAKER_64: it's just that when you start giving this kind of detailed financial advice don't do research buy some bitcoin or something close to it uh micro strategy he doesn't say it so he's kind of leaning

SPEAKER_21: you're towards it in in my interpretation i could be wrong he maybe he means something else but this

SPEAKER_64: giving out like cult like vibes yeah and ponzi scheme like vibes and that's fine if it's going

SPEAKER_12: up you look like a genius when it's going up and who and we don't know the story is not told it could become a global reserve currency it could become worth a million dollars a coin but that doesn't forgive this level of behavior and you know it's this is something that a regulator the sec class action folks are going to have a field day with in the event of a collapse and you know is this

SPEAKER_35: a collapse it's a correction for bitcoin but it kind of feels like we're teetering on complete collapse

SPEAKER_264: here yeah drawdowns happen 90 drawdowns happen talk to peloton shareholders yeah yep and i mean

SPEAKER_12: liquidation events are happening in near constant real time at this point um this feels like yeah go ahead i i i i feel like this person is like i just god how do i say this i don't want to diagnose somebody from afar but this feels like he's manic right it i i know people who have had manic episodes and it feels like a mania when he speaks right like it's so intense and it's so convincing that a person who wants to be part of something i could see you know five or ten percent of people who watch this video

SPEAKER_14: actually getting convinced and it it's just when you start having any level of notoriety or power you got to be careful just got to be careful with this stuff and this feels like he's directing people um to make a bet that benefits him to not do research all this stuff put together

SPEAKER_15: yeah i mean i think leaving is it's hard to leave aside the it's hard to leave aside the fact that if you are predisposed to kind of this cult-like thinking yeah for whatever reason that this is exactly the thing that's going to draw you in especially and this is important to point out that at the time that he was talking bitcoin was at sixty thousand dollars that it was racing literally

Jason Calacanis: zero did not exist to an asset in which a single digital coin was worth sixty thousand dollars so like there had not been a historical reason to think that it was going to do anything but that and

SPEAKER_15: i i do think that when you look at even when you look at jack dorsey and the look on his face when he talks about decentralization right like there's a there is a venn diagram of wanting to believe in a whole new thing and the power of invention and innovation and this you know arrival of this potentially earth-shattering technology like that draw that i think draws you in it makes you lose your mind it's just like it becomes dangerous when you're leading a public company in that direction when

Jason Calacanis: you become the the false prophet for you know these family offices that control what is it six trillion

SPEAKER_21: dollars globally yeah who knows how many of them are there but yeah family offices are it gets real he's going to a family office conference these are people who could place 10 million dollar bets 100 million dollar bets these are people who place those bets these are the people who will put money

SPEAKER_15: into a venture fund like archegos is the you know when archegos collapsed yeah we saw the size of the family office industry which is largely unregulated and they're bringing in like david koresh to tell them to put everything into bitcoin and it's a little scary yeah and listen i wouldn't call it manic

SPEAKER_12: if it if it if there was some consideration here or some disclaimers right but he is nothing

SPEAKER_21: there's not only is there nothing he is egging people on to mortgage their homes and mortgage their businesses you know uh and listen i get it like it's fun to buy nfts and all this stuff but

SPEAKER_12: like you just got to use some common sense here and i am i am a big fan of people um being able to do what they want with their money i think the accreditation law should be changed they're in the

SPEAKER_35: process of being changed um i've been very public about this you should have a test and if there was a

SPEAKER_21: test that you took that was you know 75 questions and you know they had to do with diversification and ponzi schemes and uh you know what bonds are and what you know equities were how equities were and you just had to take a test and maybe it was you know twice as hard as a driver's license you know some something in that range uh maybe what a gun test should be something where you you really have to show that you read the book like a scuba diving test right are you patty certified molly no okay so i did patty certification you got to read a book you got to do like three or four open water dives because you could die because you're underwater you know this could be the risk of ruin is here for family so why not let people take a test get a financial driver's license or like a patty certification to to be a diver and then when somebody comes out like michael sailor does here and is egging people on to make a bet on an untested unregulated distributed fad like bitcoin that could turn out to be something very real and a great investment you at least have some backstop right i mean you

SPEAKER_15: should just oh the basics never change and that's i also think i don't blame the retail investors who got sucked into this and now are astonished right or who watched these videos and were like what these are the smartest people in the world who control tons and tons of wealth why would i not believe

SPEAKER_154: them implicitly because it is very hard to hold on to fundamentals in you know a hurricane which is

SPEAKER_186: what this was yeah uh and who knows if bitcoin could recover it could go to a hundred thousand and he'll

SPEAKER_12: look like a genius and this video clip will look like oh my god we didn't get it yeah i i freely admit you know bitcoin could go to a million dollars i own bitcoin definitely i'm i'm hodling bitcoin i do

SPEAKER_77: think that it's a real technology but man this is just so it got gross it turned in anytime anything

SPEAKER_64: turns into a cult be wary yeah be wary and uh and people talk their books you know like i'm always very careful i'm like listen i still believe in uber i still believe in robin hood i still own the

SPEAKER_35: shares i tell people and if i were to liquidate my positions i would tell you right so when i say hey

SPEAKER_12: listen i think uber's undervalued i think robin hood's gonna be a great company i'm holding for 10 years i tell people that and i say you look at my replies people like oh what about robin and i'm like i plan on holding robin hood for a decade i i'm not gonna bow on a company i think is incredible and just because you know they have some things to work out or whatever they didn't get to 20 million users by accident i still believe in the company i still believe in management i still holding the

SPEAKER_35: shares haven't sold a share there i did liquidate part of my uber position a while ago

SPEAKER_64: with masa early on i am keeping the rest of my position because i believe in the company

SPEAKER_12: but i'm not telling you to buy it or mortgage your home for it or more i mean come on and if i if i did listen if somebody asked me like do i think uber's undervalued i say yes i think uber's undervalued do i think it's gonna be worth 10 times as much yes that's why i'm holding it

SPEAKER_21: you should do your own research you should you know take an uber you should use the product or service you should watch interviews do your research and he's telling people don't do research yeah that's the part that makes me super pissed off about michael sailor yeah is that he told people to not do

SPEAKER_12: research into morgan their homes um so anyway it's important you all see that the celsius network withdrawals are still paused yes these are the people who are giving some huge amount of uh interest on crypto deposits so you give them your crypto they give you 18 percent or something crazy like that we could never figure out who was paying the 18 percent company had 1.7 million users before it

SPEAKER_249: paused withdrawals who knows what's going to happen with them 12 billion dollars in assets managing

SPEAKER_15: almost 12 billion dollars in assets and no one knows what's going to happen they are apparently seeking uh look talking to bankruptcy lawyers was i think the last i saw trying to figure out how to

SPEAKER_445: restructure yeah we're taking on a strategic investment we're taking on the street right so they this is

SPEAKER_15: according to the wall street journal as of today has hired restructuring attorneys from law firm aiken gumpstraus hauer and feld llp to advise on possible solutions for its mounting financial problems according

Jason Calacanis: to people familiar with the matter yeah crazy massive massive massive but listen this could all end up being moot yeah because the aliens are here did you see this story today uh i saw this story last night

SPEAKER_00: and so i was you know you know when you're going to bed and you're trying to get off the doom scrolling

SPEAKER_451: yeah and then the simulation because we're in a simulation i'm convinced now oh it's just obviously

SPEAKER_167: a simulation because right as i'm ready to go to bed i got a massage yesterday my wife forced me to

SPEAKER_264: get a massage because she thought i was under a little stress and uh so i was like okay i'll get the

SPEAKER_35: massage uh and it was lovely and i'm not even into that and then i'm like on the bed i'm like just i was watching that show on hbo uh hacks i'm enjoying the show oh yeah that's so funny yeah yeah so i'm on season three of hacks and it's just lovely these two comedians and one's older one's younger it's just great it's really under um i think it's under rated uh rated underrated show hacks a season three i highly recommend it so i get through two or three episodes of that i got obi-wan tonight i said

SPEAKER_64: i'm about to fall asleep and then i see china finds aliens and i'm i'm like really simulation we're done here can i get any bet can i get any sleep and you know what i refuse to double click on it then i get to our chat in the morning i see the producers it's in bloomberg because i saw it on

SPEAKER_15: some fugazi website it's in bloomberg it's in usa today it's ever my kid of course came running upstairs he was like now we have aliens like we're doing so this is the only reason this is in the lineup exactly there are two reasons this is in the lineup because one if it turns out to be true we do not want to be the show that walked by it okay yeah like we're not buying it but two really interesting technology story okay so the story is china's science ministry said that its giant telescope and china apparently has the world's largest radio telescope which i did not know said its giant telescope may have found signals from alien civilizations the signals were identified this year by its 500 meter aperture spherical radio telescope known as sky eye the narrow band electromagnetic signals detected by sky eye are different from ones previously captured and this team is still investigating them according to bloomberg though the report then had been posted on the website of the science and technology daily the official newspaper of china's science and ministry technology ministry and then it was removed kind of like covid yeah i mean i was talking about

Jason Calacanis: this earlier like it's not walking by it like i just want to put this plant this stake right here

SPEAKER_255: it'd be like yeah we saw it so that when it turns out to be yeah aliens on the way i i think this is

SPEAKER_35: worth investing in i'll be totally honest like i know we got a lot of problems on earth but we're

SPEAKER_00: not going to be here much longer molly you and i are on the back yeah you know nine we're on the downswing we're on the downswing here we i have no illusions about the fact that i got between one but it's common we're looking great uh but we're healthy all that stuff but we have between one day and you know whatever 30 40 years 50 years you know it could be good but this satellite this china you know dish here looks pretty good i think we need to build one that's 10 times bigger

SPEAKER_111: because before i die i sincerely want to know where the aliens are and the clock is ticking so i know

SPEAKER_64: it's a waste of money and we got like a lot of other things to work on but i think we should be

SPEAKER_21: going all out to find all in on finding more of these aliens i want to find out and even if we never

SPEAKER_64: know the fact that we know there's somebody sending a signal to me that would be lovely i think it would

SPEAKER_21: change humanity's view of the world right give us some purpose like okay there there are other alien

SPEAKER_264: life forms out there we can meet them you know and there could be a lot of upside in that

SPEAKER_15: or they could fry us and yeah i'm 100 on the stephen hawking train here and the um my i i love love love that trilogy the dark uh the three body problem yeah trilogy by shishin lu and the book my son and i were talking about this actually when i took him to work this morning the uh idea of the dark forest like if you're in a dark forest and you don't know what's out there but you assume there are probably things that are out there that can kill you are you gonna light a fire and be like i'm right here yeah or are you gonna shut the hell up yes and try not to die yeah and stephen hawking was of the

Jason Calacanis: opinion that we need to shut the hell up and try not to die because if there's if there are aliens marauding out there in the world it's most likely universe it's most likely because they're looking for resources yeah that's what we did as a species sure when we expanded across the globe it was usually because we're like oh we need this and we need that and we'll kill whatever is there and take

SPEAKER_35: it it's not shut the hell if you'd be here hold on i have a counter argument to that i don't know i don't know the whole body of science out there and i only got into the second three body problem audio books uh i gotta pick it back up but here's the thing if you are that scientifically advanced to

SPEAKER_64: get across the universe it would follow that you would have the ability to create resources because it's going to take a heck of a lot of resources to get across the universe and we're already at the

SPEAKER_00: point of not being resource constrained on this planet like you know fusion you know renewables

SPEAKER_238: water like desalinization i mean we are talking about mining the moon because we need some metals and

SPEAKER_192: minerals that we're having a hard time finding here yeah it feels opportunistic it doesn't feel like

SPEAKER_21: but i mean if we could get to another planet like ours another goldilocks planet yeah the amount of

SPEAKER_00: resources it takes to get there by definition would be mean that we have unlimited resources i think

SPEAKER_355: so i'm going to go with the okay we're good you're an optimistic guy i like i'm optimistic we're good yes and if i'm not like you know it is okay if we're not then go in the first wave all right so we'll

SPEAKER_63: wrap on that uh there's either good news or the chinese are lying again or it's the end of days or like both maybe or the simulation is just you know the whatever 12 year old girl is like running this simulation she's not tired right now she's not tired she's having the time of her life she has a

Chamath Palihapitiya: lot more ideas she's got a lot of ideas uh to to she's like let's see if a reality star could run

SPEAKER_111: everything oh how about a hundred year pandemic let's crash the market let's make an imaginary currency it's just like please stop i liked it better when it didn't move she's i mean she's literally gonna be like what if russia and china both started a war in the same year like this taiwan

SPEAKER_00: stuff like oh anyway stay focused everybody and we'll be here for you every day at 10 a.m youtube.com

SPEAKER_15: slash this weekend and um we'll see you tomorrow we've got a lot a lot of fun things going on we've got a lot of new guests coming on we're going to be booking having some interesting interviews coming up on this weekend start up soon and uh and then of course don't forget about this angel

SPEAKER_12: university ah yes angel university is happening uh go to angel dot university it's happening in two weeks so if you want to learn how to angel invest in startups and do it with like a real good methodology and not mortgage your house uh yeah i'm gonna be there i'm going oh you're gonna go

SPEAKER_14: great awesome absolutely yeah maybe you can help us with the q a at the end uh angel dot university all proceeds go to charity on the angel dot university site we have a list of all the charities we've given money to uh and i think it's over 150 or 175 000 we've donated so all the proceeds we don't make any profit from this we just pour the profit into donations but we do like people to pay for a ticket so that they don't burn the seat uh at the zoom call so it's virtual as well we'll probably do them in person at some point and as we wrap here we uh we had the breaking news of the 0.75 uh interest rate yeah um yeah uh happy markets were all over the place as we were talking uh but

SPEAKER_15: the fed is is being super aggressive and then there's an updated estimate wednesday from the atlanta fed okay on whether we are or are not in a recession of recession of course being defined as two straight quarters of negative growth right now the atlanta fed is saying q2 is flat not negative oh so we may

SPEAKER_21: have just dodged a bullet maybe technically and technically they usually use you know i hear some

SPEAKER_00: people saying a recession also has to be that we don't have jobs or people are losing jobs and there's an employment issue but i've never heard anybody giving but i've never heard anybody give a specific definition of that like you know unemployment is above x percent or you know the number of available jobs is below x percent so if somebody can inform me about that um definition of a recession or that

SPEAKER_35: caveat to a recession please email us producers at thisweek and startups.com like i keep hearing people on cnbc talk about unemployment in relation to the definition of an in of a recession but that is

SPEAKER_00: something we knew was a possibility that it could be a flat quarter in terms of gdp so that that would

SPEAKER_07: actually be good news yeah i'll take it yeah we'll take it markets are green as we wrap so we better go goodbye we'll see everybody tomorrow bye bye bye