SPEAKER_00: the opportunity to create a jedi image with you as a customer is disney's and disney's alone and the fact that you can make a jedi version of somebody on one of these services is because they ingested disney's ip yes they didn't train it by the way they stole it they stole it they took

SPEAKER_01: it without permission yep that's stealing you can't steal people's ip so if somebody wants to create shrek minions spider-man darth vader it should say we don't have the rights to those characters you can make a green org you could make a samurai with a laser sword but you can't make these other ones go to disney this week in startups is brought to you by lemon.io hire

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SPEAKER_07: startups i'm your host jason calicanis with me again alex wilhelm alex what do we got in the docket today give me the top three stories and then we'll get into it what do you think the top three

SPEAKER_10: stories are chenay top three stories i'm gonna have to say chimes ipo and the results from it that to me is just such a milestone event for the technology scene i'm gonna say the combination of stripe

SPEAKER_13: shopify amazon and walmart advancing their stable coin initiatives and on the startup front jason i went through the yc batch and i pulled out some themes and some notes for us just in case we want to do a

SPEAKER_16: little bit of a dive into uh the upcoming uh new generation okay yc class number 723 my god been

SPEAKER_17: around forever congratulations to the team at yc they do a great job okay uh so hit us up what's

SPEAKER_13: the first story all right so we're talking about chimes ipo now everyone i'm sure knows but i'll remind you chime is an american neobank that means it's a software company or a software layer on top of traditional banking services popular amongst consumers mobile first youth friendly popular around the world chime jason went up to a 26 billion valuation during the zerp era the kind of 2021 era moment in time and went public at about 11.7 billion dollars it priced at 27 a share above its range positive and then had an absolutely great first day ended up closing at 37 11 per share up 37 percent not a crazy pop nothing that's going to get bill gurley too mad but a very solid first day

SPEAKER_21: result for you get another 2025 decacorn ipo all right so chime is a neobank and neobank provides

SPEAKER_07: services like checking banking but it does it in a modern fashion so that it's easy to set up an account easy to get into your checking it's easy to move money around move money around and they tend to have a much better deal on fees the playbook for startups is what services do you hate who's got the worst customer service and if you think who's got the worst customer service a bank anything that's monopolistic like if you only have cable in your neighborhood before starlink existed or 5g you know you can order 5g for your house i think now in some markets so whenever you have one person who's got a monopoly they tend to let their customer support go down they take their customers for granted that's what happens in socialism and uh communism you have like one bread take it or leave it and if you don't like the bread you don't really get to write a yelp review so you don't have to fight you don't have competition like in capitalism so one of the great playbooks in a capitalistic society is try to find something people hate and try to make something better people hated new york city cabs they had a long list of reasons of why a new york city camp suck they typically were dirty they didn't smell good the drivers drove like lunatics because they were trying to make a ton of money and they were under the gun because they have to pay 125 at the beginning of the shift to rent the car so they're basically for the first eight hours negative they literally are losing money for eight hours then uh we have

SPEAKER_28: the next stage of this which is uh you know you couldn't get one and they weren't predictable so uh what you would do is you uh look for one of these and i think new bank chime and all these

SPEAKER_31: great companies looked and found these and so congratulations to them and there's crypto exchanges who did this but crypto was a new space robin hood did this to yeah uh trading on e-trade or ameritrade or some of those old clunky services that were expensive and slow expensive slow bad customer support

SPEAKER_13: equals new opportunity available absolutely sometimes though it's it's hard to go after these spaces it's not easy to get into the banking world chasing with regulation and you know incumbents and i would presume just institutional dislike of change but that's also where sometimes you can make the most money i mean uber had to take on governments local governments state governments entrenched interests taxi drivers like they had a myriad number of people who wanted them to fail but the prize was big enough to keep going after it and in the case of chime a lot of folks made a lot of money um people that owned more than five percent of chime at its ipo dst global crosslink uh general atlantic menlo ventures cafe innovation a lot of people are eating off this deal so i'm going to ask you the same question i do every

SPEAKER_35: time how much will this liquidity help the drought that you and i've been talking about for what feels like

SPEAKER_37: 10 years now yeah i mean it's obviously super helpful when you know dst which is uri milner's firm i believe uh you know and that's his money i think primarily i don't think he's got other lps now but for the other folks who are in this they might have been sitting on chime i'm not sure when chime was founded but this is a 10 plus year old company i believe uh you can check that and you know this is a long wait they might have had opportunities to sell in secondary as we talked about during our venture round table on wednesday which went really well people seem to like that um you know this is great for the industry and um looking back we had um a circle ipo that went 4x we had a core weave ipo that

SPEAKER_00: went 3x and now we have chimes ipo and what was the pop 50 60 percent it closed 37 it opened up 59

SPEAKER_21: just under 60 but closed the day at 37 but still a very strong result those are three in

SPEAKER_07: five weeks do we should every time we um i wanted to have like an ipo tracker here so at the end of the notes let's always have the last you know a running total we can copy and paste it in the docket for those of you who want to follow the docket and really get smart and and really understand the industry well go to this week and startups.com docket alex does a great job so in the ipo tracker

SPEAKER_16: here when was uh core weave what date and then the one before that one after that was core weave was

SPEAKER_13: march 28th 2025 and then we had e toro which was may 14th and then we had circle which was june 5th

SPEAKER_44: and now here on june 13th so about a three-month run for a number of successful mostly fintech ipos

SPEAKER_45: got it well so there's this is why we make a list alex is because we have so much friends so stablecoin

SPEAKER_46: stock trading app new bank and then uh an ai hosting company core weave so it stands out a little bit of the last one i mean it is ai is going to be the next wave i predict we're going to see a series of ai ipos in the next year um maybe grok maybe open ai if they can clean up their uh issues i think you could see a whole flurry of ipos just to be clear though you

SPEAKER_15: mean grok g-r-o-q not grok the ai chatbot that we use over on x correct uh grok the inference chip

SPEAKER_31: backed by chamath my friend sandeep mandra friend of the pod he's working on there his company was acquired by them i could see them going public i don't have any inside information but you know if you get towards a half a billion dollars in revenue a billion dollars in revenue and we're seeing this so once again um we it's not a political podcast obviously but when you're trying to assess what's happening it's very easy to get emotional and talk about you know oh this person's you know out of it

SPEAKER_07: and biden's uh you know weekend at bernie's or trump is anti-big tech put aside all the noise you hear on msnbc and fox irrelevant look at the data on the field that's what i like to do the data speaks got four ipos in four months that are significant we also have i think we're up to about 10 m a

SPEAKER_16: transactions and uh we'll we'll go through those again but we we can even do them off the top of our

SPEAKER_01: because we cover this so deeply two for doordash two for open ai i think there's maybe three for uber

SPEAKER_31: this year you know really tiny tuck-ins uh and then one for salesforce that was uh yeah that was

SPEAKER_13: the moon the moon company but actually this is a great segue jason because uh we've been tracking stable coins quite a lot and we just found out this week that stripe is buying a company called privy which comes after its purchase of bridge bridge was their stable coin investment and privy is a crypto wallet startup last valued at 230 million now we don't know how much they paid for it probably less than that if i'm being honest but yet another deal that is a token acquisition now this one in the fintech space but i think it just goes to show that the momentum in m a that we're seeing is persisting and across a pretty good cohort of companies founders let's be real finding

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SPEAKER_10: lemon.io twist i do want to point out though that it does feel like stripe and databricks and some other these like quasi public private companies you know the public the private companies that tell

SPEAKER_13: us their their numbers and they basically act like public companies they're getting pretty acquisitive and i think that's really healthy for the technology scene but it probably does complicate liquidity a bit because if you invest in a company and you know stripe buys it i guess you might get cash for but if you get stripe stock you might still be kind of locked up so i'm not sure if all these acquisitions are as liquidity inducing as you know google buying you or whatever but still super positive to see that amount of you know shares treating hands okay great what else is in the news all right so sticking to the stablecoin theme a couple things we just talked about how stripe is buying privy uh other news items from the world of stables this week include that shopify is now going to support merchant transactions using the usdc stablecoin from circle on the base blockchain which is coinbase so we're seeing those companies work together to increase the availability and usability of stable coins and then news today is that walmart and amazon and then quoting the journal here and other multinational giants have recently explored whether to issue their own stable coins in the us so we could see a dramatic expansion in the number of stable coins in the market and it seems in response to that jason visa mastercard both lost about four or five percent because they might be essentially circumvented in some cases now both walmart and amazon have more than 150 billion dollars in quarterly revenue so we're talking about in theory a lot of money movement that could be swapped over to stable coins and that i think really opens up a lot of opportunities for startups because there's probably a lot of tooling to be built in and around the stablecoin space and i don't think that the couple of stablecoin starts we have in the twist 500 uh one money and stably are all the companies that are going to do well here but i think our thesis about

SPEAKER_31: stable coins is really coming good all right so uh stripe bought bridge we remember that stablecoin we don't have the date here in the notes but i think that was in february or march let's always have the dates here so we can really understand the industry tightly yesterday stripe made a second

SPEAKER_78: purchase which was a wallet company named privy and so these two i guess the thesis is are some way

SPEAKER_07: related and that stripe is going to give their partners maybe even customers i don't know are they going to go to the customer level and let people have wallets and then let people buy stuff with stable coins or are they going to be the provider of stable coins to their top merchants so they can

SPEAKER_16: make their own this is a theory yeah i've been thinking about like maybe everybody who does over a

SPEAKER_07: billion dollars in transactions could have their own stable coin and if i send you a million dollars in amazon as a supplier and you give me a million dollars in shopify it's all the same thing who

SPEAKER_16: cares they're all backed by us treasuries we're going to need some yeah you are and i will point out

SPEAKER_63: that privy is less of a consumer wallet service jason and more of like wallet infrastructure sorry for

SPEAKER_13: the buzzwords but provides a technology that underpins crypto works so i wouldn't say consumer

SPEAKER_53: facing i mean stripe isn't right that's not that's not their main thing they're not trying to be a company my mom knows but they want to be a company that everyone who sells my mom uses

SPEAKER_31: uh on the everyone with a billion dollars more revenue i would pause on that for a second i wonder if you know stripe at some point will make a play for the consumer wallet and if they're buying something that enables crypto wallets why wouldn't stripe have its own you know paypal type product i have always wondered like that would be quite a creative and the reason i think that is because they said shopify would never have like a portal and they have shop and i have the shop app and i have shop.com uh-huh and i find myself looking at the sh you know just on this like three or four times since i got a little more frisky and buying direct from different bespoke brands and so just buying stuff on amazon which i was finding like the quality was going down uh-huh and i was looking for the

SPEAKER_07: slightly higher quality product so these glasses that i wear my readers are from katis c-a-d-d-i-s okay and you know katis i think is a shopify store so when my delivery comes they put all my um shopify deliveries in one location the shop app so now i have that app i wonder if stripe will

SPEAKER_91: make a play eventually for consumer wallets and someone it could be and by the way just everyone

SPEAKER_13: knows the shop app is actually very highly ranked it's currently number 21 on the us free ios rankings so interesting i mean top 50 is a big deal top 25 is a hit i'll add to your point though clarna has an app that lets you i think search around and buy things because they want to drive more gmv so why

SPEAKER_15: not help with that so i guess the question is the buy now pay later app is saying if you here are the

SPEAKER_07: merchants who support buy now pay later so if you are buying things and installments start here it's almost like the those stores what were those stores called layaway stores that existed in the

SPEAKER_31: 80s or 90s you could go to a store that you could rent to buy remember those stores rent to buy stores rent a center rent a center correct so maybe that's kind of like rent a center for them

SPEAKER_07: interesting so that seems to be an interesting theme if you own the merchants you own the businesses at some point do you subtly make a play for consumers and the shopify the reason do you have shops app on your phone i do not have it on my phone so if you the reason to get it is if you buy something they kind of push you towards it to get your updates on shipping and so for shipping updates it's like reminding you but when you go in and look at your shipping like oh your katus glasses are coming it's like and by the way by the way your glasses are coming and if your glasses are coming here's some

SPEAKER_13: other things that are related to glasses i thought so i thought i thought that might be the corollary there uh the only thing that i'll say just thinking about this out loud with you is i think it's really cool to see stripe expanding its product remit but i just don't want to see it trying to eat space in the market that other companies kind of fill because i think that would be i don't know we don't need any more incredibly broad incumbents that want to do everything i kind of like the stripe does like five things really really well i wonder if they would be good at consumer but at the same time i guess all companies need to keep growing so we'll see if that happens um one more data point here jason is that when i was going through the y combinator batch of companies not a single stable coin entry in that list for this last cycle that that really surprised me i thought there would be three just because

SPEAKER_46: what's your analysis of that as a as a classically trained journalist and then i'll give you the

SPEAKER_108: insiders we'll see if we're in sync okay why okay let me just one clarifying question why are founders

SPEAKER_15: making less stable coin companies or did why did yc admit no stable coin focus founders probably

SPEAKER_31: both of those things are true but generally speaking the accelerators don't define what the companies are they accept the best teams and what they're working on so i think you could leave the yc part out yc is going to pick the best founders and the founders are going to pick what they work on so if you come with that premise then it means less founders are doing stable coin why would less founders engage in the stable coin company building stable coin companies i think it's because that opportunity to build them was five to ten years ago yeah whenever the stable coin bridge whenever bridge was started that was probably the ideal time and the exit was a billion dollars whenever tether started that was over 10 years ago and usdc was probably six or seven years ago so i think they probably think this is an established technology and there's no opportunity here not dissimilar to hard drive you know like why aren't there hard drive startups you know it's like are you kidding like that technology they've run every ounce of it they get five percent better a year it's a mass quantity low margin business so that's what happens with tech opportunity goes away

SPEAKER_15: i can imagine a couple of things here because go back to your point about the one billion dollar

SPEAKER_13: revenue making your own stable coin if you're going to eventually want to be able to trade stripe bucks for amazon bucks you're going to need a centralized place that can do the swapping

SPEAKER_117: with regulatory approval inside that's a cool idea i still need more i mean or maybe you just this maybe

SPEAKER_119: the market is so robust you just have a wallet and the cfo at amazon has a wallet the cfo at you know wherever has a wallet and their bank wells fargo supports it or they don't and they just send direct

SPEAKER_07: and like the money is in a wallet i mean i know that sounds crazy but i think that's where this is

SPEAKER_13: headed yeah oh well okay well maybe there's less room than i thought but i will say we do have two of them uh stablecoin focused startups on the twist 500 so i'm hoping that those are those two do and

SPEAKER_28: that's actually a really good thing to look at because then we could play the game yeah by them

SPEAKER_01: or what's is their opportunity still valid it's a very interesting thread we're pulling here

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SPEAKER_07: superpower.com twist okay so this is what happens when a when a when a market becomes robust all the players are looking and saying okay we're we're leaving the mid game in chess you know you have like the opening opening happened five years ago we're in the mid game right now and then we're about to enter the end game the pieces are consolidating right in the end game the you have less pieces and the pieces are more developed the pieces here are bridge getting bought and privy getting bought by stripe usdc going public the g what was the act called uh the genius genius act right i got that right the genius act maybe even tether getting more legitimized and moving to audits all of that is end game behavior so okay i think we're in the beginning of the end game this is the beginning of the end game let's go look at those two companies and let's see what they do yeah an audible here then we'll try to guess the outcome and then we'll look a year from now we'll put a reminder in

SPEAKER_134: notion to remind us in six months to check every six months if we got this right your notion is such

SPEAKER_31: a great piece of software i'm filibuster while x does this but notion is such a great piece of software notion.com twist i think is our code that you can literally put reminders in to remind you in a document like how cool is that like the document or database will remind you to check

SPEAKER_136: okay i think we used to call that no code i'm sorry low code but now it's just a standard feature

SPEAKER_13: all right answer your question this is the first one we added to the twist 500 it's called stably and the reason why i picked it initially was it offered what it calls stablecoin as a service and you and i share a thesis in which we think people are going to make a lot of stables why reinvent the wheel why not go to the company that's good at it they have expanded jason in doing some other stuff including some kind of on off ramps for stable coins now i think this number this point five percent vig is going to go down there's more competition yeah but they have expanded who buys it who buys it i mean you can make an argument that circle buys it i mean just for one

SPEAKER_07: take it off the market i mean they you would be a buyer build and if they have this would get bought for one of two reasons the technology is so advanced that you want to save a year building it if it's you

SPEAKER_78: know year build yeah so somebody like you know some companies like apple or ilana tesla they're build

SPEAKER_119: folks they have like an incredible dexterity and building stuff they don't buy other folks like

Chamath Palihapitiya: zuckerberg they're good at building but they're not innovative obviously so they like to buy so and then

SPEAKER_78: google kind of sits in between google will make a gmail they'll make their own chrome browser but they're

SPEAKER_31: also frisky and will buy a youtube you know now and again so i think this gets bought for that reason so you want to save a year by one of those companies or it gets bought by a legacy player who doesn't

SPEAKER_07: have the ability to ever get this done or if they did have a number of key customers and your stripe and you want to enable a bunch of this or your bank of america and you decide this is critical for you you're kind of buying the customer base so just something to think about as a company okay the end game's happening what happens to your company a legacy player will overpay american express visa they'll overpay banks why will they overpay because they want to get those leaders into the company to jumpstart the company yes uh somebody who is has dexterity might buy you to save time and to get your customer so you can work on those three things every customer you get it makes it easier for an acquirer to justify the acquisition because they don't have to close that customer and you might be you know in the skunk works and hard to rip out that's a really good

SPEAKER_143: uh sort of thing and what's the second one or any question any questions on that analysis

SPEAKER_13: no i i don't disagree with it i'm just trying to figure out what it's worth uh because i think that if you're selling to visa mastercard you're selling potential team and technology over revenue you know how fast your customers buying more and so forth you're buying more potential so let's just say that it was valued i don't know let's say 100 last time you could probably get visa to pay you four or five for it i can see that 100 if it's valued at 100

SPEAKER_31: million the way people will make these acquisitions is um a legacy company will with a lot of cash

SPEAKER_07: they'll just make a very um some people might say not logical bet they'll overpay in other words because they could see this as a threat to the mothership so if they have a hundred billion dollar business and they spend you know a billion dollars on this that one percent of their market cap to buy this if they felt that this was gonna be a headwind against them and they could lose ten percent of their market share but if they spend one percent maybe they only lose five percent market share so that would be like the defensive justification the m a team might come in to the person at american express visa bank of america wells fargo and give that justification hey we got to defend the castle the other one would be the opportunistic one hey we have 10 000 customers who all would want to participate in stable funds in some way if we convert one percent of them a year that's a hundred new customers each new customer is worth a million dollars a year lifetime value of ten million dollars therefore you know every uh hundred of them we get is a billion dollars in revenue and lifetime value we can easily afford to pay for this if we just execute on

SPEAKER_31: a one percent i think that would be the opportunistic way to look at the acquisition so it's defensive

SPEAKER_21: and then growth opportunistic i'm doing a little bit of math right here and i'll explain why in a

SPEAKER_13: second uh here we go i can do division without touch typing okay so one thing you're talking about a little bit jason is how much of a company's worth do they spend on an acquisition and this is a really great rule of thumb that everyone should use when they look at a deal because often you'll see a large dollar amount and think oh this is an enormous transaction for the buyer when in reality it's not so we're going to talk a little bit later on about meta essentially purchasing scale and they put in 11 12 billion dollars oh my gosh 11 12 billion dollars well that works out to 0.6 percent of

SPEAKER_108: their market cap today right more or less so that's a rough calculation don't quote me on that but i mean

SPEAKER_31: it's not much this is the company's total worth this is the way to assess them is to look at the percentage of your market cap and then say number one what does this give us an additional market cap or number two how does this protect the kingdom when amazon bought whole foods for 12 14 million it was something in that range um and it was a long time ago so they bought it for almost 14 billion the

SPEAKER_07: stock went up 30 40 billion the next day which is another way of saying they got it for free yes no they got paid to acquire it there you go in in a certain way um and now you want to look at the

SPEAKER_31: revenue quality because you could have the market cap go down you couldn't you could lose a billion dollars a year running whole foods etc so you do have to integrate well and for every three you buy every three whole foods you buy two of them go to zero so that's another rule of them so it better

SPEAKER_78: you know grow but this is why the wrath of lena khan was so damaging to our industry is people stopped taking big swings and thinking big we want companies thinking big we want them

SPEAKER_156: thinking hey if we put these two things together we can compete with a bigger player hey yeah if we buy

SPEAKER_07: this we can add a new service and give it for free to customers or at a discount all of this is accretive to lower prices for consumers i i've we had this discussion i think when you first started here as co-host of like give me an example of an acquisition that resulted in higher costs or lower choice customer and it's like you could there's many places you can post images other than instagram you

SPEAKER_31: can use many different messaging apps than whatsapp there's a zillion other ones of each of those

SPEAKER_13: and those are still free well i mean i guess because i was looking at this uh earlier on today doordash bought walt ubereats bought insta cart no instagram um postmates postmates postmates so we have seen some contraction occasionally but those have remained robust competitive markets which i think is i i think it's okay to say that a deal might be constrictive of competition but because there's so many players still left it's sufficiently competitive to not warrant risk and i think that's where lena khan went a little bit wrong because i think she thought that any reduction competition

SPEAKER_21: was net bad without thinking about the broader market itself if i can be a little bit broad

SPEAKER_28: i think it's a pretty good way to phrase it i think she thought anything that could potentially harm

SPEAKER_07: future competition should not be done yeah well you know according to who whose judgment lena khan's who's never run a business before who's never started a company who's never been in venture capital has zero skin in the game some elitist ivy league verus writing papers no offense uh i said offensive things but no offense but in the lead this person sucks but i love no but i mean an elitist you know uh idologue with no skin in the game and no experience in the trenches you know in the arena is like i think i can predict what's going to happen in the future

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SPEAKER_07: go to northwestregisteredagent.com twist today here's what 99 out of 100 of these things prove uh things get cheaper for customers customers lives get better like i'm trying to think of an example of any acquisition where things got worse even the one you're talking about you know where there was consolidation and food delivery and there has been some yeah what was bought were intended to be the unprofitable you know dying companies or sideways companies that everybody saw the writing on the

SPEAKER_31: wall like lyft's not going to make it out postmates wasn't going to make it out you know whatever grubhub this or whatever like they were just things that were yeah exactly they were they were kind of things that

SPEAKER_07: just weren't as good as the ones that consumers selected so in that case consumers picked doordash because doordash listen i'm gonna i'm team uber you know that but i think doordash had a better interface and had better restaurants on it they were about 20 better on a product basis that's why they were leading uber has since caught up uber has added some other things but i would still give a five percent edge maybe a ten percent edge to doordash's ux i think they've just they polished it a little bit better and i think they had some exclusives and that's okay called competition

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SPEAKER_07: the robots are all over la i there are coco robots everywhere on melrose place i'm staying in the like

SPEAKER_31: melrose uh you know place you know kind of area of la this week and i have seen i don't know if it's the same five but i've seen no less than 50 deliveries going on and these things are the same five robots

SPEAKER_178: it might be the same five and i just they're they're on the same five blocks but these coco's

SPEAKER_119: are everywhere on melrose place and uh just to add to this everybody uh coco recently raised 80 million

SPEAKER_35: dollars according to my dear friend rebecca scutek over at tech run um i actually didn't have this little bit of data jason in the uh the docket i cut it to focus on some other rounds but because you

SPEAKER_15: brought it up i wanted to throw it out there can we spend that i think we should add them to the um

SPEAKER_31: robotics section of quiz 500 or at least consider them and we should check that we have those other

SPEAKER_07: robotic companies in it those robotic companies people are not taking people are not taking into account exactly how impactful robots are going to be i have just two examples okay those robots and

SPEAKER_31: then if you can pull up figure we did um and it's the number one on their uh this is the number one

SPEAKER_07: story i think on their x feed for the robotics remember figure the company figure they make a humanoid robot they were raising at an extraordinary valuation i think it was close to 40 billion

SPEAKER_78: yeah but we're complaining the back channel inside the industry was it was a bunch of spv special

SPEAKER_07: purpose vehicles with what venture capitalists consider gen pop you know rich dentists putting in money on a pre-revenue company that didn't even have a product in market that was the claim that was the back channel that's what the hand-wringing was about you might have even seen rule off say we're back into this market where spvs are being done by people with no skin in the game in other words

SPEAKER_78: the you know the people who are running these spvs aren't putting their money in they're just getting the value of it and so they don't care what the valuation is because they didn't pay for it you put all that together uh and then there was this famous bmw story where the bmw their lighthouse customer the customer that was supposed to convince you to pay 40 billion was uh said something like yeah

SPEAKER_07: we're not using that in production and then like two days later was like well we are in production so

SPEAKER_31: obviously this got to the founder i think this is my dime store psychologist i think this got to the founder of figure who probably was like yeah you know they're accusing me of securities fraud here

SPEAKER_78: it's a pretty serious uh i'm going to prove that our product kicks butt so they've released not a

SPEAKER_07: six minute video a 60 minute video of a figure robot and i'm going to talk over it here alex there's a figure robot it's on a tether i believe i think it's hanging from a tether because these things don't stand very well um so they're not like the boston dynamics one but this is sorting packages putting the barcode down and then moving it and so pretty slick so yes in your tech you've been covering technology for two decades so you understand that if it can do this today next week it will be going 15 faster and then every six weeks it will be going twice as fast until physics like the physics of you know moving objects in the world but this will become lightning fast and if the error rate here i don't know if there was an error rate stated but it was just given the general um it was given a very general kind of like a chat gpt prompt hey just put the um just put the um barcode face down right

SPEAKER_53: and jason just to be clear this is not cgi this is not this is an actual figure robot doing this

SPEAKER_13: that's my understanding okay so so two things stand out about this one the dexterity of the robots tremendous just backing up your point that things are moving very quickly but also this i think detail is precisely and exactly why i'm pretty excited about having more robots in the market and why i'm very bullish on humanoid robots in particular this job sucks right like who wants to i don't want to stand there and do what is this a package a second all day long just yeah it looks like it's doing

SPEAKER_31: one two well we've got a weird time here four five it did two and five seconds it looks like six

SPEAKER_201: seconds doing one every three seconds right now so 20 a minute yeah yeah so you're correct um now how

SPEAKER_07: many people work in amazon factories doing something like this we'll assume this gets 10 better every month every seven months it's twice as good so this will be doing odd size packages larger packages dealing with arrows i'll be doing a lot of other like slightly more complicated but you're right people are getting paid 15 to 20 an hour to do back-breaking monotonous labor like this which is kind of akin to being in a torture chamber let's call it what it is to spend eight hours doing that is it's work it listen i am no judgments you got to pay for your kids food got to pay for shelter i'm not making any judgments on people i've been there literally i've been there in life when you know i was

SPEAKER_31: working week to week to have food on my table and watch my parents do it so no judgment on the people

SPEAKER_07: but as a human as you're pointing out to do this kind of labor is soul crushing you can do it in a fun way you can make the best of it but it's soul crushing for 15 bucks an hour 10 bucks an hour

SPEAKER_51: these will cost one dollar an hour and they will work 23.9 hours a day yeah just gotta plug them in and squirt some wd-40 on them and off you're done you're done so the job description the the job

SPEAKER_31: destruction the job retirement that we're gonna see i'm writing a blog post on this i'm gonna release this weekend it's going to be greater than anybody anticipates uh and in our industry okay we don't want to talk about it anymore my thesis is five years ago we would talk about it alex you know why

SPEAKER_07: because it was hypothetical oh it's no longer hypothetical waymo was hypothetical nobody was writing in them nobody was getting coco or that other company you know delivering their burritos serve robotics delivering their burritos nobody had seen these robots doing things and uh cafe x you know i would get on the margins people saying like oh is this going to get rid of every barista job and i was like it's going to get rid of a lot it's going to get rid of the people who are not doing it for artistic artisanal purposes yeah because you want your coffee perfect you go to cafe x it doesn't make a mistake if there's a mistake it's like you know educate whereas 30 40 50 of

SPEAKER_31: drinks at dunkin donuts and uh starbucks have a mistake literally like one in three or four yeah uh so anyway my thesis is job destruction in the hundreds of millions i'm going to put it at four or five hundred million according to my early estimates i think four globally four or five hundred million jobs three million two to three million jobs retired a year i'll say one to three jobs i have to really refine this but i think one to three million jobs the united states are going to be retired per year so the 60 million people 62 percent of people participating in labor 150 million people working jobs i could see 1.5 to 3 million of those jobs going away per year and what jobs replace them

SPEAKER_83: is the question there will be jobs to replace how quickly because there could be a period of time in which we delete some jobs but haven't made the new jobs yet i'm a very long term believer that we're

SPEAKER_13: going to stay at full human employment for for forever but i'm not convinced that it won't be a period in between the two and that's what i'm concerned about for folks who currently make 15 bucks an hour doing this for for amazon in the warehouse but i have driven night shift berry harvesters for a farm for 12 hour shifts for eight bucks an hour and let me tell you worst job of my life like just

SPEAKER_53: sounds pretty rough dude you drive a one mile an hour in a straight line and you just want to die so yeah i'm totally in favor of this here's my question how did we get from stable coins to here

SPEAKER_51: so um we were talking i have no idea the audience will tell us we were talking about uh oh yeah acquisitions

SPEAKER_215: of the companies right lena con yeah competition yeah and then robots okay i'm going to take us back

SPEAKER_13: to the beginning and just answer the other half of your question the other company that we have in the twist 500 and i've lost the time now is one money and they're building their own uh network blockchain strictly for stable coins so the idea there and this is a kind of a binary bet it's either a billion dollars or zero um is that existing blockchains are a bit slow and so if you want to have something that can handle the kind of like transactions per second that a visa or mastercard handles you're going to want something more purpose-built just for that the anti argument here is is that base the l2 that uh coinbase runs is very good so we'll see who um who ends up being right but that's the latest on stable coins and competition yeah and robotics uh pretty amazing how

SPEAKER_28: quickly and you know there's another founder lesson here that i think everybody should just

SPEAKER_31: internalize um because it's important sometimes it takes the third swing at the bat fourth swing at the bat for these things to become reality we saw e-cash before the crypto movement then we saw crypto then we saw icos we saw all kinds of permutations over 20 years around digital currency even paypal right um and over that 30-year journey journey it ended with the the optimal product is a stable coin

SPEAKER_07: that's what consumers want they don't want to worry about their money is going to disappear they want to know it's back they want it to be lightning fast so we came to a very basic conclusion that people

SPEAKER_78: knew in the paypal days the paypal mafia knew it had to be safe and had to be fast so you had to trust it and it had to be fast and it just turned out the manifestation of that was a stable coin robotics we knew it had to be intelligent we knew it had to be predictable and we knew it had to be cheap those boston dynamics ones were absurdly expensive you know those are half million million dollar yeah you know units they didn't have llms they didn't have you know an ability to say what's on the

SPEAKER_31: table in front of me yeah put the barcode face down and it's like i know what a barcode is and i know what face down is because i'm a language model that's pretty basic so the manifestation of that was

SPEAKER_07: a large language model in commodity hardware that was driven to that point by the smartphone and the ev revolution which made small batteries and incredible sensors and incredible processors and video games from nvidia so the ultimate manifestation can be predicted if you just assume all the technological barriers become cheap and then it's just a matter of when it arrives

SPEAKER_35: this is getting so cheap that uh i couldn't find it in my notes i'm not going to spend five minutes looking for it but there's a company in their latest yc batch that made a 200 robotic arm that you

SPEAKER_13: can prompt using natural language and it can play chess for you robotic arms used to be industrial only that it cost you a bajillion dollars and you need to set up for one single use on a assembly line for cars and they would do one weld 20 billion times now they're just desktop toys you can program with with english i mean that it just makes me so excited jason the future is going to be freaking

SPEAKER_230: awesome and i'm i'm excited about it so yeah these two or three joint um gantry robots i think they're called um is uh you know there's there's different types of these but i think that's a jantry um

SPEAKER_31: cartesian jantry robots uh three linear axes providing straight line movement are well suited for pick and place tasks and assembly and those have been around for a long time they are wildly expensive and they're mounted and you mount them and you pay i think they you know they got down in the the ones in the cafe x machines uh you know it's pretty public knowledge you can look at them i think when they started those were 30 40 000 and now they're 10 000 if you want to have an industrial one that you can run for 10 years and not worry about now if you want one for home use and you're just going around yeah

SPEAKER_13: i could see conceivably making a 500 one so here is uh the latest entry this is vassar robotics i did find it and uh here is the demo i was watching earlier today that when i was going through the uh

SPEAKER_238: latest cohort from yc it's doing like a language model uh commentary on its moves but it's yeah this

SPEAKER_108: is a toy janky but here's the thing 200 bucks and it's sold out yeah it's a toy yeah but toys become

SPEAKER_51: tools uh that is a another pattern in silicon valley where things that feel like toys quickly become

SPEAKER_31: you know uh tools and that toy like canva was a toy for a lot of people um like microsoft paint was kind of a toy uh canva was kind of a toy then they become essential and that will start and like that looks like something like for educational use to have fun like legos that's a kind of modern day lego and smart of them to you know make them uh as paul graham always says you know founder of yc do things that

SPEAKER_78: don't scale it looks like a 3d printed you know janky easy to criticize you know weird looking product they sold out how many did they do 100 you come up with a million ways to diss it just like people did with the roadster oh he's making 100 roadsters for 150k it's a lotus elise it doesn't have power steering it's it's loud it has no suspension when you hit a pothole you feel like your fillings are going to come out of your teeth like this was the criticism of that car

SPEAKER_31: and now you have model wise self-driving around austin you know i've seen the videos i've seen clips they're safe you know i i kind of feel like there should be a safety driver in them for the first year you know putting aside tesla or any company yeah yeah you know just to go off on another diversion here i think like having driven fsd since inception and you know i i just got the latest juniper it's unbelievable but i think it's probably an intervention every hour for me on the

SPEAKER_07: hardware four two interventions an hour on hardware three and there's a website it's really cool there's a website tracking disengagements what they call critical disengagements and there's an amazing group on reddit if you want to really get into fsd and where it's at today the fsd group and then this other group of like tesla super fans they're recording through the computer and uploading all of the data and telling to tell it tell them tree what is that word telemetry telemetry thank you and they're

SPEAKER_31: publishing it so if you find this fsd tracker i think it's called fsd tracker tesla yeah fsd community tracker tesla fsd tracker.com there's a bunch of software uh one of them is called matter key and this is like super interesting uh and it shows the number of drives with one or no disengagements um city distance to critical disengagement uh in kilometers and miles and so you can see over time what this different software is and right now it's saying every 200 miles there's a critical disengagement well 200 miles is incredible achievement it's going straight up so this is

SPEAKER_78: um yeah i've been down the fsd rabbit hole uh and fsd is extraordinary i you know my gut tells me just to appease regulators and avoid you know what happened to cruise and uber and waymo in the early days which and zooks just happened you know these little fender benders or god forbid a human getting

SPEAKER_31: hit that's going to happen in all self-driving cars teslas waymos it's just a matter of time like random stuff stuff happens so we should be judging these based on how much safer they are as you've pointed out than human drivers but that's not how they'll be judged by regulators or the public or the press or just society writ large the majority of people are looking for these i've come to the

SPEAKER_78: conclusion to be superhuman not human superhuman means i think perhaps lidar to see through fog and see

SPEAKER_31: through rain which obviously tesla's taken a different approach although they're testing mules i saw on this

SPEAKER_78: fsd forum on reddit but here's the data number of drives with no critical disengagements 98 of drives so you know basically it means like you could do 98 drives out of 100 not have a disengagement but that also means one in 50 people who take imagine if one in 50 people taking awaymo got a critical disengagement that would be often that means if you used it you know daily or if you used it you know when you go out to dinner twice a week for a week 200 a year you would experience one a quarter one critical disengagement quarter that's too much for a human's brain to process they will videotape it it'll become

SPEAKER_31: a social media thing you know yes et cetera just like it did for waymo when that waymo went around in a circle so i think they should i think the states should have the right to make their decisions i don't think this should be a federal mandate because i believe in states rights number two i think that they should have safety drivers be the standard for all autonomous driving for the first year or x number of miles hundred thousand million miles whatever it is because the safety driver costs nothing and they have the safe they have my understanding is they said there's two or three safety drivers per car for tesla during the test and that there's one uh or 1.5 for waymo you know these backup drivers who are monitoring everything so if that's the case like there's no shame in the safety driver game put one in there for the first year and just have them sit there and talk to the customers and put their hands down and say here watch it go i'm here in case there's a critical disengagement a kitten runs across there because we want to be better than humans and here you see um city distance to critical disengagement uh and this is only for people who have 2000 miles reported this yellow chart here and as you can see uh you know back when it was 10 and 11 and 12 you know people were going version number version number of the software thank you uh you know people were going 61 miles then 146 miles back down to 110 then all of a sudden in 12 and 3 148 and 237 so that's really that slope is very notable it's getting better and better and better it will be getting probably exponentially better but still every 200 miles if the average ride is five that means every 40 which was the math we just did every 40 rides you get disengagement that's a little too much for consumers um now of those some number will be picked up by the remote drivers who are connecting to the car over lte who knows maybe we'll put a satellite dish in those and i was about to say who owns a satellite internet company i mean you put starlink in there it would be even i don't know if the latency would be lower than 5g actually oh good point the top line bandwidth would be higher but maybe more consistent or maybe you just have both and you just send the information on both and if one you know you have some sort of redundancy actually that's probably what they would do that's what i would do so uh because the cost is so de minimis uh so here you go uh keep an eye on that

SPEAKER_07: and then the fsd group in reddit you can see all the nuances for example they figured out uh it's amazing what this crowdsourcing can do they there's a thing where if there's tire tracks on the road you

SPEAKER_78: know somebody peeled out or slammed on the brakes and they left tire tracks yeah confuses the hell out of

SPEAKER_07: cameras it thinks there's something on the road which makes total sense you think about a camera all of a sudden there's a black streak and it's a random black tree it's not a predictable black

SPEAKER_31: tree the car could have slammed on the brakes for one second for five seconds it could have spun out it made a circle it's just like some random blackness and i think that's where lidar wouldn't get confused and so i have a feeling tesla's going to have a very successful launch but i think it should be very slow and steady with safety drivers that's my best advice is safety drivers for the first six months or a year let them talk to people i don't know what you think about the sort of deployment of this technology but waymo took five years with safety drivers right something like yeah they took

SPEAKER_13: they took forever but my question is would you have this done on a per market basis or a per fleet basis for example waymo is going to go to dc next year would you say that waymo needs to have safety drivers for the dc market itself or because they've already done this in other other cities they don't

David Friedberg: need it anymore that waymo does safety drivers every time they go to new city because each city is unique

SPEAKER_13: that's what i was shooting for here so essentially i think that your 100 000 or million mile mark

SPEAKER_78: i would do on a per market basis for all these companies per city per geo and i i used waymo two or three times while i was here the wait times are terrible uh the cost is more expensive than uber uh but it's kind of rock solid in the area of la that it's in it's on surface streets i thought it was actually too aggressive there were a couple of moves that waymo did that i was like that's a little too aggressive uh like it cut somebody off and so i was looking at it and i was like i'm kind of shocked that a waymo hasn't gotten into a serious accident in los angeles because people in la are

SPEAKER_31: frisky with the way they drive and i i can't believe you know i think it's just amazing they haven't gotten into a serious accident yet or that that data is not out there and the only caveat i'll

SPEAKER_78: give you to that data i was just sharing at teslafsdtracker.com is there's been a lot of back and

SPEAKER_07: forth of if you should trust that data because i've heard both arguments these people are out to get tesla they're shorts and these people are super fans they're long the stock so when you when you add

SPEAKER_31: a stock and a bet like polymarket shout out to our friends at polymarket i don't know if they have a robo taxi bat but we should pull it up if they do that would be pretty cool uh the when there's a

SPEAKER_07: public market stock at stake here you could have people place a bet for a million dollars and then fake a crash in a tesla um and there was a very controversial tesla crash where the person claims fsd drove them off the road and it was actually there was data that the person jogged the steering wheel before it went off the road and disengaged the fsd oh so that's not so good but they but the person driving claims they were still in fsd but the data shows they moved the wheel so this is kind of like

SPEAKER_31: shows one of those gray areas between the two uh oh here we go will tesla launch a driverless

SPEAKER_273: robo taxi service before july this is the most pertinent polymarket i could find 28 chance but let's

SPEAKER_07: look at how they settle the bet when you're doing a polymarket you want to know how this is reconciled

SPEAKER_13: so the rules this market will resolve to yes if tesla publicly launches a fully driverless taxi service by june 30th 11 59 pm eastern time otherwise it will resolve to no any service that allows a member of the general public to summon and ride in a tesla vehicle operating without any human on board or remote oh okay actively controlling the vehicle will count a human may be present in the vehicle or monitor remotely for emergency intervention but they must not be physically positioned to take control for example no safety driver in the driver's seat and must not actively steer brake accelerate or otherwise drive the car under normal operation that seems fair when

SPEAKER_278: they fully explain i think that's a good way to resolve it and i think that's probably this is why

SPEAKER_78: the devil's in the details yes there it's all likelihood that this will still be in private beta and you would need to be accepted to the program so a public member couldn't just download an app and do it like you can just download waymo now in los angeles yeah you don't need permission so

SPEAKER_07: all right great show uh anything else we need to get to in terms of uh housekeeping here i think uh

SPEAKER_149: on the housekeeping side of things um no i have a really great reddit rapid response for monday for

SPEAKER_51: us to get through oh you want to do today let's do it yeah i love a rapid response a reddit rapid

SPEAKER_136: response here we go all right so i was over on our dear sister forum oh by the way reddit

SPEAKER_00: is suing somebody we didn't touch on that did you see that reddit is suing somebody for uh ingesting their forums and then there was last week we missed it the anthropic so they're suing anthropic

SPEAKER_78: and then disney is suing another company so all this journey mid-journey is suing by disney

SPEAKER_53: is suing the nudify people who did the that ai app so quite a lot of okay let me break it down for

SPEAKER_13: everybody yeah reddit the online social forum is suing anthropic the foundation ai model company best known for as claude yes family if you will the problem is uh reddit's kept telling them please stop scraping us and anthropic's been scraping them now i'm sure both sides will have allegations but there's now a lawsuit the second thing jason's talking about is disney the famous consumer media brand suing mid-journey which makes generative ai models that make videos and images not a huge shock to see that and then what's going on with meta and nudify they're suing the parent company of that service to stop advertising on their platform because they've kept doing that even though medicine no because they didn't want to be associated with taking money from apps that will

SPEAKER_15: make uh jason help me out here what's the term for when you make a synthetic

SPEAKER_302: revenge porn somebody yeah no it's not revenge yeah it's non-consensual artificial

SPEAKER_28: yeah nudes i guess it's disgusting yeah so um the first two are the really important ones on an

SPEAKER_31: industry the the third one's obvious you shouldn't do this stuff it's illegal and they're going to pass laws for it the first two are really worth meditating on i've been saying for a year you should

SPEAKER_78: not be able to take disney's characters and make jedis that's their opportunity in the market you can be

SPEAKER_00: certain disney is evaluating what consumers will pay to make you know our you know birthday card with

SPEAKER_31: me as a jedi if you if disney offered me to make jedi knights i was just at disneyland i did um rise of the republic rise of the rebellion is incredible ride disneyland's an incredible experience my my

SPEAKER_07: daughters want to go to star wars section immediately and they sell the ability for you to buy a

SPEAKER_31: lightsaber and construct it they sell jedi robes they sell pictures of you on the rides it's like

SPEAKER_07: the whole it's their ip that they spent billions of dollars on tens of billions have been invested in

SPEAKER_00: it they bought it for billions of dollars the opportunity to create a jedi image with you as a customer is disney's and disney's alone and the fact that you can make a jedi version of somebody on one of these services is because they ingested disney's ip yes here's an example they didn't

SPEAKER_01: train it by the way they stole it they stole it they took it without permission yep that's stealing you can't steal people's ip so if somebody wants to create shrek minions spider-man darth vader it should say we don't have the rights to those characters you can make a green org you could make a samurai with a laser sword but you can't make these other ones go to disney which has that opportunity and by the way claude or grok or chachibiti what an amazing opportunity give disney a billion dollar deal for a hundred million a year to be the official partner to make these things and let them uh promote it for you and share revenue and now you've figured out a way for the writers and for

SPEAKER_35: the artists to get paid and the companies that own their art get paid just to underscore jason's point here we're not going to get to it we don't have time but told that it was 500 company that does kind of the marketplace between ip and ai companies jason uh also created by humans and

SPEAKER_307: yes i'm an investor in creative humans yes there's another one on the list as well that's

SPEAKER_13: escaping me now they dropped a report all about essentially ai scraping and how prevalent it is and how much is happening uh the latest change here is that now most ai scrapes are not coming from model training but from rag essentially when you do a search and it goes out to find information for you yes those are now the majority case and the amount of traffic that is sent back remains effectively de minimis so i think you're describing one facet of a larger problem but we have not figured out how to repay ip holders for the decision if you're willing to pay six billion dollars to

SPEAKER_07: johnny ive for his company you should be willing to pay a billion dollars for disney for 10 years like literally you could buy all the rights to the disney characters for a billion dollars i'm sure they would go for that but you're giving johnny ive six so it just shows how you know i think people haven't

SPEAKER_119: thought this through license reddit like google did for 50 million 100 million a year it's not a lot of

SPEAKER_07: money compared to the value you're getting yes and then reddit should be looking at their top contributors and saying we've created a contributor fund people have accounts over five years old and that have done over a thousand posts are now going to get a 20 rev share in the licensing data we have and then just start shipping them reddit gold and they can donate it to charity or they can sign up and 1099 when they hit a thousand dollars or five hundred dollars and take that money out there could be a beautiful system here that shows the world how to do it correctly it's not too difficult what i just described could be built in under 30 days by the entire industry yeah choosing not to do this they're choosing not to do it well because right now it's free if they

David Friedberg: win these lawsuits they're not going to win they're going to lose they're going to lose and they're going

SPEAKER_78: to lose hard like when and when i say lose they're going to get injunctions against them so what they should be doing sam whitman's a great deal maker it's like his best skill google's got a lot of history with doing deals go to folks and say hey what would be reasonable for the next five years let's

SPEAKER_07: come up with a system for five years if people want the output of your characters they want to put in prompts around your ip we can alert you when that is you tell us your keywords and then then when the output happens we can say officially licensed by just like if you want to use getty images as your big bold images on your blog you have that's not fair use now if you want to crop

SPEAKER_119: you know five percent of a low res or a third of a low res getty image and you're making commentary

SPEAKER_07: on it yeah you could do fair use but if you're doing that every day all the time you know you're probably going to need to get permission so there is like a balance here and just be thoughtful about

SPEAKER_160: it this is my message to the industry is like be fair put the fair and fair use very simple folks

SPEAKER_136: well i couldn't say that better myself all right jason do you want to do the red wrap response for

SPEAKER_160: save for monday hi you know what i've got a call with a founder right now so i'm gonna demure we'll

SPEAKER_31: do it on monday all right this week in startups.com docket and uh we have a tick tock account that i want everybody to go find and an instagram account go find those follow those and just say hi to us over there we're trying to build up those channels and we'll see you all next time on this week in startups have a great weekend bye everybody