SPEAKER_00: if people who are already making a lot of money if you give them the ability to invest more and you make it easier for them to invest more it's actually better for everybody that's hard for

Chamath Palihapitiya: people to get their heads around because they're like wait that person's already rich bezos is already rich why should amazon and andy jassy's already rich uh you know the people who work at facebook zuckerberg's already rich why should they be able to buy more companies and make their company bigger well if you look at it as hey we're all americans and that company is a global company that's making money around the world it's giving an advantage to our country that's why we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes that's why the country has done so well yeah it's just hard for i think people on the bottom sometimes or really highly educated people as i wrote in my piece on my sub stack the other week with generation she for the for that socialist bent i think it's

SPEAKER_02: really hard when you have 200 300 000 in student loans and no job prospects because your degree

SPEAKER_03: means nothing to employers it's pretty hard to buy into capitalism right this week in startups is

SPEAKER_05: brought to you by oracle oracle cloud infrastructure or oci is a single platform for your infrastructure database application development and ai needs save up to 50 on your cloud bill at oracle.com twist open phone create business phone numbers for you and your team that work through an app on your smartphone or desktop twist listeners can get an extra 20 off any plan for your first six months at open phone.com twist and monarch money get control of your overall finances with monarch money use the code twist at monarch money.com in your browser for half off on your first year all right

David Friedberg: everybody welcome back to this week in startups i'm your host jason calacanis with me alex well um

SPEAKER_02: i have been on the road alex i'm back in the office in austin singapore then i went to la for a little family vacay did the disneyland thing disney world no disneyland disneyland's in la and uh then went to san francisco take care of a little business then went to the co2 conference in santa barbara back to la for the launch of tequila back to austin for three days then i went on our yearly white water rafting trip on the snake river and uh here i am i am back in austin for a week this has been the most i've ever traveled i am so sick of traveling and living out of a suitcase that i'm actually happy to be back

SPEAKER_10: in what is uh actually not been a super hot summer here for texas standards well it's been absolutely

SPEAKER_11: blistering up here in the northeast so maybe we stole all your heat but uh yeah there's nothing quite like

SPEAKER_13: unpacking the suitcase and realizing that you don't have to use it again and you can put it in the closet or wherever you put it you're like goodbye to you i'm home now i would like to be home for a

Chamath Palihapitiya: little bit um but i gotta go to new york i'd see my dad and my family so i'll be in new york next week uh or i gotta go to san francisco for the graduation of the la launch accelerator class then i gotta go to new york so no rest for the weary the travel continues but hopefully i'll ground myself for 30 days

SPEAKER_10: at some point i was doing really nicely with not traveling and and being a homebody but we got a

SPEAKER_00: huge docket god things have been crazy tons of tech news we got a lot to talk about in terms of

SPEAKER_02: venture capital ai exits i also wanted to talk about qualified small business you know we were talking about this big beautiful bill which i think they renamed um to something i heard that they renamed it but anyway i think everybody knows it by big beautiful bill one of the things in it that's actually been good for startups is qsbs qualified small business stock we'll talk about that and uh tiktok i see is uh back in the news with their reboot anything else on the docket that

SPEAKER_11: we're going to talk about today uh yeah so the biggest financial news this morning in the technology world jason is that core weave is going to buy core scientific core we have of course was an ipo

SPEAKER_13: earlier this year we talked about on the show a kind of ad nauseum and then there's a couple things that you threw in that are pretty interesting uh one is a service called looks mapping which is a really fun play on the phrase looks maxing uh and then also you found a neat way that people are using a multi-ai model setup to turn ai onto ai code and generate hopefully stronger code and fewer bugs so we'll get to all that but first uh i have to ask yeah there's a brand new political party and i see you have the uh the flag behind you right there uh so i presume you're waving your flag for the uh the hashtag america party there's the american flag america party

SPEAKER_03: yeah i mean interesting turn of events obviously i talked about it on all in last week or we talked

SPEAKER_00: about it uh looks like you know nobody in either party is taking fiscal responsibility for the balance sheet of america we thought there was a chance that the republicans would maybe have a little austerity

Chamath Palihapitiya: and no au contraire my friend mon frere they are not uh being the responsible party either everybody

SPEAKER_00: just wants to spend our way into oblivion i guess there's some claims that there'll be all this incredible revenue generated um but just first principles i think if you're going to be involved in politics picking a side is not great for business i think probably people have seen that over and over again you just wind up alienating one side uh michael jordan famously said like republicans buy sneakers too uh was his quote back in the day when they asked him to pick a side but there is an interesting platform i think elon could build on um number one energy like unlimited energy investment number two uh fiscal responsibility three government uh efficiency pro natalism sounds like a good one parents uh you know maybe funding for more babies funding for health care for parents uh time off all that kind of good stuff that would maybe increase that and then i think recruitment uh part of immigration so if you were and i'm no expert on politics but if you were to capture i don't know two or three seats in each house of representatives the senate maybe you can get five or six of those maybe it's easier to get five or six of those with a hundred million dollars each investment cycle give 20 people five million each and flip five of them and then have them hold out

SPEAKER_02: for fiscal responsibility and just say hey listen this is just the way we're going to vote and uh kind of tea party-esque or i don't know if you remember grover norquist used to have this um uh tax pledge i will not add any new taxes and he got people to sign for it so i i i tweeted this publicly told elon like you should just have everybody sign an agreement that they're going to balance the budget and just if they sign that agreement that they're not going to increase the deficit they're going to balance the budget they get in they get support uh financial support you know promotional support from a group of people in the america party so i like it i don't think they have to run their own presidential candidate that's not going to help um but i think winning a couple of senate seats is possible and maybe a couple of uh house of representative seats and maybe

SPEAKER_11: that helps i don't know what do you think i think the house of reps is the easiest target just given that they're smaller polities and there's just more races to go after so you could better kind of

SPEAKER_13: pinpoint uh if the new america party wants to take on the senate that's going to be pretty contentious i think in terms of current political fault lines uh but on the balanced budget point jason there's actually a great historical um precedent for this if you look at germany they for a long time had what was called the debt break uh german i'm gonna butcher this everybody but uh they're schuldenbrems and the idea was you could not have deficits that were greater than 0.35 of gdp so they essentially wrote into their constitution we can't do that and yes they did change that recently because they want to give more money to ukraine and so forth but you can actually write that into law the question that i have is if we want to do the pronatals and things and if we want to do the deficit reduction things um we're going to have to probably go against the grover norquist pledge in some areas and i wonder how the math will square up but uh i don't think anyone's exactly stoked right now with how things are going and so i don't mind a little uh a little stirring the pot i'm curious to see how much money elon will put into this though because he's put a lot in before and said he was going to dial back so

SPEAKER_00: i'm not sure it's uh an inconsequential amount of money to spend for him and if it makes us energy

Chamath Palihapitiya: independent and balances the budget i think those are things that are going to i would estimate 20 30 of the country will support those two specific things in a like very meaningful way like get

SPEAKER_00: engaged in it so it could be a game changer and i'm rooting for him and the whole process so

SPEAKER_11: i'm i'm rooting for energy stuff i i was so disappointed in the the one big beautiful bill act which i think is the final name that it added like tax incentives for coal usage and i'm just

SPEAKER_13: it struck me as a little bit um bass backwards as they say and i just think we could be a little

SPEAKER_00: smarter than that jason yeah i mean we don't you you don't need to be a climate denier or believe the planet is on fire to not want to burn coal or have sustainable energy sustainable energy just

Chamath Palihapitiya: means it's cleaner you just don't have as much pollution so does anybody want pollution or are

SPEAKER_00: kids breathing in coal you know like there's other countries like china that are getting ahead of this why wouldn't we try to get ahead of it and it's also it's cheaper too so maybe the free market will figure it out uh maybe the incentives you know although helpful the the basic free market has made it so solar is the cheapest thing to install now and firing up and my understanding is firing up a new coal plant is more expensive than installing a new uh solar plant and batteries i don't want to

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SPEAKER_02: new us customers with a minimum commitment i don't know if you saw this um but there is a new tesla supercharger station somebody can search for it and throw it up on the screen here there's a new tesla supercharger that is a hundred percent solar and battery powered in other words there's 84 stalls i think i read that are off the grid a supercharging station think about this that is completely off the grid so here it is cheat up for us alex so tesla has launched a thing called the oasis supercharger

SPEAKER_13: essentially what it does is it just uses power from the sun and batteries that tesla already built to create something that does not draw from the existing power grid the idea here jason as far as i can tell is that this is a way to ensure that the energy going into your ev is not from a coal

SPEAKER_40: power plant and so you're kind of closing the and if you scroll down there yeah if you scroll down there

SPEAKER_42: were some pictures of it i think um and it was there you go um so giving people the visual here

SPEAKER_00: what you'll see is like it is giant and you see that solar farm behind it for those of you watching

Chamath Palihapitiya: on youtube it actually i thought it would be more solar than that it looks like a couple of acres maybe two acres of solar like a it's like a parking lot like a football field or two maybe

SPEAKER_00: to power all those batteries uh so man that must be a lot and the battery power maybe show the other photos the battery packs don't look like that much there's the solar and the battery there so if you open that one and you make it a couple times bigger yeah look at that i don't know miserable color but

SPEAKER_27: yeah it's it's not that big and honestly we have a lot of space in a lot of markets jason if you fly over

SPEAKER_13: the united states and look down you can see space so to me this is fantastic i i wouldn't mind copying and pasting this i don't know 50 000 times around the nation wouldn't that be a project i mean if you

SPEAKER_02: think about what that would do and this was the power this was the potential of evs and why i think the local standards were so great in california we were moving towards a world where the incentives were so strong to get an ev the incentives were so strong to put these superchargers up that we could be living in a world where we don't burn oil and we don't have pollution just that reason alone forget about what you think of global warming just not having to rip stuff out of the earth and damage the earth and burn oil and put pollutants in the air the when i first moved to

SPEAKER_00: los angeles i guess that was uh 2002 so 23 years ago there was still fog there was i saw this fog over the valley and i was like wow it's always foggy over there they're like nope that's smog yeah and i was like wow that's terrible it's like this low hanging cloud and they're like oh it was much worse and i was like it was and i looked it up online man the smog cloud over the valley in and this is where somebody could pull it up uh in the 70s and 80s it was like this yellow haze over uh you know like studio city and those areas because they're surrounded by mountains and the fog cloud over there was so gross and literally in our lifetime it cleared out basically there just wasn't as much emissions uh on that big yellow cloud yeah i mean on a hazy day la was looking like that all the time

SPEAKER_11: if you need a visual representation and you're on the audio version just imagine like you know 2008 beijing essentially and you'll get basically it looks like beijing yeah all right so let's get to the

SPEAKER_00: docket here uh i know we've been uh having a lot of exit and we're tracking this ourselves um and been talking about it here but let's talk about what's happening here in terms of exits and exits of course are super important for founders because if venture capitalists can give distributions to lps those lps will invest in the next fund and that next fund will invest in your startup so here we go

SPEAKER_13: exactly yeah so uh first of all the headline here everybody is good news if we take a look at exits uh this jason is a chart showing the exit value and number of deals of u.s backed sorry u.s venture backed startups and as you can see the far right column is the most recent and it is the largest since 2021. that means that we just had the best result of quarterly exits here in the u.s for vc-backed startups since essentially peaks are and sure we're not back to where i think people would want to be and we're not near all-time highs but steady progress over the last three or four quarters i think is a really positive sign and to put this into numerical terms jason the amount in dollars of vc-backed exit activity in q2 was 67.7 billion dollars according to pitchbook as always i'm curious if this is going to be enough to actually shake things loose or this is kind of an amuse-bouche for lps but certainly a positive sign yeah it's definitely a positive sign uh we had

SPEAKER_02: superhuman one of our portfolio companies get bought by grammarly last week you did a great interview with a special guest and so i think we're going to continue to see more and more of these kind of exits on a regular basis uh companies i guess superhuman was reportedly 30 40 million in annual

Chamath Palihapitiya: revenue those kind of companies maybe they don't want to keep going and uh they're not ready for an

SPEAKER_00: ipo yet they need to maybe 10x revenue from there but if somebody wants to put five of those things together and then double the revenue in a year or two well then you got an ipo there so uh you know

SPEAKER_10: there's going to be a lot of singles and doubles singles and doubles make the world go round and this is fantastic for the industry as well as the ipos we've seen so the ipos is the interesting

SPEAKER_13: thing because i think we've been talking more about ipos this year than we did last year but at the same time according to uh kyle stanford a pitch book analyst that i've known for a long time he says that public listings remain on track for the fewest completed in any year over the past decade so even though we've seen chime even though we've seen core weave even though we've seen circle uh also e toro was in there earlier this year and we're looking forward to figma for sure it's just not quite the volume that we all wanted to see so here's hoping that that changes in the back half of the year but if we're doing this well jason without ipos my read is that nixon you know double the ipo cadence and we're gonna have a rollicking uh back half of 2025 and then everyone can calm down and relax

SPEAKER_00: and stop worrying about exits the number of people who filed for exits is tremendous so we're seeing

Chamath Palihapitiya: the strongest ones uh with the best stories i think go out first circle chime e toro um and uh core weave those all have really good stories either crypto with new crypto regulation or ai and the ai infrastructure boom uh or fintech which again is related to regulations i think as well so that's um that's really good for the industry now business software would be really good to see some business software companies come out as well maybe at some point uh and we'll see or consumer tech maybe you know but stripe is uh obviously sitting there in the wings that would be the big one spacex i don't expect those to come out anytime soon but everybody else yeah maybe we'll see some more and perfect

SPEAKER_02: time for a fintech company to go out after what we saw with chime and circle robin hood has had an incredible run and so incredible yeah it's kind of nuts i uh like i've said on the show before i've never sold a share of the company and then i keep looking at my portfolio and it just i don't know

SPEAKER_03: what it's at today but it was it had broken 90 dollars a share i think and i think it's over a

SPEAKER_66: hundred let me double check is it really 92. oh no uh it did oh so i went like 90. no yeah oh yeah 100 100.88 uh was the 52 big guy there i wasn't wrong yeah it did at some point break 100 yeah and um i

SPEAKER_02: think they have um this new i i i don't know if you saw this story tokenized stocks uh where you can trade stocks um which i don't understand exactly what that is but i guess did you read that story and

SPEAKER_13: do you understand what it is yeah so there was a okay so tokenization is taking real world assets jason and putting them on the blockchain essentially giving them representation uh up in the web three world and there was discussion about robin hood offering people access to open ai equity open ai was pretty miffed about that because private companies often have rules about who can trade their stock when and so forth um it turns out that what robin had done was find access to open a open ai stock via an spv a special purpose vehicle and then tokenized that and i'm of two minds here i don't know which one's correct jason on one hand i love to see innovation and people having access to more assets on the other hand at some point you're financializing a bit too hard and i think tokenizing an spv which we don't know if it's a layer one or layer two spv struck me as slightly uh disconnected from actual equity uh but i'm curious your take your business can't miss phone calls it's that simple

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SPEAKER_00: and people understand what they're buying uh then you're basically allowing the public markets to have access to a token which represents a percentage share in that um it's very weird because it's like its own little float i guess uh and i that could lead to weird behaviors in that there might be so much

Chamath Palihapitiya: demand for that that it disconnects from reality and that little float is trading much higher than the actual shares so that i could that then trade at a bit a trillion dollar valuation because the public

SPEAKER_02: is interested in owning it so much that they're willing to pay three times as much um but i think this is a step on the way to uh it's clearly a step on the way to private companies being tradable

Chamath Palihapitiya: which is one of the reasons we started the twist 500 was for us to start to get a hold on what are the top private companies which 500 out of the 20 000 that exist are the creme de la creme the top five percent or so and then maybe we'll invest in those with spvs or try to get access to those and so that's you know something i've been looking at to trade them freely on a blockchain is really interesting because it could trade 24 hours a day so if you follow that string then open ai could trade 24 hours a day x.ai could trade 24 hours a day stripe could trade 24 hours a day but robin hood i guess would they have an after hours market would trade you know during market hours and a plus a little bit

SPEAKER_00: but uh this would be like a global market where anybody could buy any sock anytime in any company that's going to be pretty freaking cool i think it's going to lead to a need for a lot of education

Chamath Palihapitiya: because consumers are going to need to understand what can happen when you do have a 365 day market for a company that is not obligated to give you any information can i can i show you something that i

SPEAKER_13: i saw that i don't think we've actually talked about on the show there's there's a new company called jarzy it just came out i think they raised some money it's kind of like equities in jason or forge global um but what they've done is they've actually created an interesting kind of information uh marketplace here that i think is worth uh looking at so if you look at my screen here this is the jersey interface i did some back and forth with them to figure out how this works because how can you possibly invest in spacex well it turns out they're purchasing stocks on the secondary exchanges and then they're tokenizing them and then creating these little assets you can buy into if you want um and then they kind of give you some you know opportunities headwinds and so forth uh but i really do think that because people are not going public because we have new financial technologies and because people want to invest in companies that are between household names before they go public the demand is going to pull forward the market solutions to the point in which we see more stuff like this uh i maybe it's fine uh i think we're going to have more open ai robin hood disputes though as more companies try to tokenize and trade assets that are not really supposed to be that

Chamath Palihapitiya: liquid and the sec is going to have to get involved at some point we'll see which if americans are trading in this and what rules come about there because uh that's the sec's mandate is to protect uh consumers i believe that's their mandate like orderly a trustworthy marketplace and protecting

SPEAKER_00: consumers is their mandate so does this it seems reasonable but you know we're now in the no crying in the casino phase we went from you can't do anything under gary gensler and yeah come in and tell us what you're planning on doing and then we'll either file a claim against you or tell you to do what's on the website so there was no reason for you to come in here you're basically like it's a trap to now yeah launch a meme coin no crying in the casino if you bought the meme coin because malay's sister cousin decided to do one or eric trump decided to do one yolo you know like

SPEAKER_02: you're the you're the idiot in the casino who decided to play poker you know with the big boys at a table with a rigged game so here we are folks you know like uh buyer beware i think it's um you don't know what you're buying you could be buying common shares that are far behind a preference stack so in a company that is a private company valued at three billion dollars that has i don't know three billion shares in this hypothetical example and you're like okay the shares are worth a dollar i'm going to pay a dollar fifty for it because i think it's going to go 10x from here and it turns out you bought common shares and the company has a 3x liquidation preference and the first billion shares you know the company gets sold for a billion and those preferred shares have that preference stack and they just take all the proceeds from a sale and you get zero dollars and you bought somebody out who had common shares as an employee at a 50 premium at a 4.5 billion valuation they ran they knew their common shares were underwater because they had inside information because they worked in the sales department or they had were privy to you know the friday meetings and this is where you're going to get tons of lawsuits so it's great that people can have more access and i think that is great to democratize it but we're going to need some rules

SPEAKER_94: of the road yeah jason can you explain liquidation preferences for folks out there who may not be

Chamath Palihapitiya: super aware of the intricacies of deal making yeah sure you decide you want to raise money this is acme soft acme ai and it's worth three billion and the company has i don't know 300 million in revenue and it's trading at 10 times that you say uh hey the company's losing though a ton of money it's losing 300 million dollars a year you're putting tons of you're losing a billion dollars a year you're putting all these servers in you're paying for a bunch of stuff and what happens is um maybe somebody who is going to give you that billion dollar investment in the company they say okay i'll give it to you but i want to get back two billion dollars at a minimum if not i'll if it's greater than that my shares then i'll just take my percentage ownership which would be like i don't know 25 if it was 3 billion pre 4 billion post but in the case that it sells for less i just got to get 2 billion so let's say the company sells for 3 billion well they put the billion in they own 25 so it sells for 3 million so they should get 750 right they own 25 nope they get their 2 billion now there's a billion left and if they had been participating in that they also get their 25 of that billion so now they get 2.25 billion or it could just be depending on your structure they just get 2 billion now everybody else shares the 1 billion left there might be other investors there might be employer employees so you see a 3 billion sale but the cap table actually shared in 1 billion and this is where we have to explain to our lps when these things happen here's what actually happened you read a headline number here's what actually happened and we may not know about that if we if you invested through an spv and you had no information rights you didn't you don't know you don't know all those details the board knows those details that's why we when we own over five percent or ten percent of a of a startup we like to at least have a board observer seat if we own over ten percent at least a board seat it's kind of reasonable and sometimes even if we have a board seat we just say hey you know what we're going to send an associate we'll send an analyst they're just going to be off camera at the board meetings as an observer so we'll just we'll drop down to an observer seat we don't need

SPEAKER_02: to vote on anything just so we know and we have that and that's why information rights become such a contentious issue if you don't have information rights you're basically making bets at a poker

SPEAKER_34: table and you only know one of your cards like imagine that disadvantage in a texas hold'em game

SPEAKER_10: you don't even know your whole cards or you know one of your two whole cards really hard to play

SPEAKER_11: yeah given my recent poker results i don't think that would actually make me much worse but hey what

SPEAKER_13: can you do um jason can we talk about ai just for a hot second sure move on yeah i think i think there's some interesting stuff here to to discuss so i want to show you a chart of um how much money has gone into basically ai deals as a share of overall deal making because i think the trend here is pretty clear and what we have here is a chart that goes up to the right if you're on the audio version of the show yeah but essentially the share of deal value that ai startups um command has reached roughly two-thirds now and we're seeing roughly about a third of the deals according to pitchbooks q2 data being ai startups so it seems that really it's feast or famine out there ai startups are raising enormous rounds and everyone else is kind of struggling my question for you was does this chart uh match your expectations of the data does this track with what you're seeing out there not everyone can be a

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Chamath Palihapitiya: working on an ai product or a company using ai to build a product or a company with ai features in their product right the clear definition here is i guess the devil is in that detail and we don't know that but um a hundred percent of companies are using ai to run their company then you gotta think 80 90 of products have ai-like features for their customers whether it's a video game

SPEAKER_00: making ai characters or ai backgrounds or it's your sas software providing some ai to train you or use customer support so there's that spectrum you know and this is why i think a lot of the sas companies

Chamath Palihapitiya: are looking and saying how do we make a make our company appear and not cynically like correctly be positioned as an ai company so you had a company like superhuman

SPEAKER_02: was that an ai company yes he was all the features that were coming out were ai based was it perceived as an ai first company uh probably by most sophisticated people but they had to explain to people we're not just a more elegant email product we're not just a you know luxury

SPEAKER_00: software for email we're an ai email client where we analyze all your emails we make responses for

Chamath Palihapitiya: you we draft them we categorize them by email all that kind of good stuff whereas a company coming out of y combinator or r accelerator or getting funded they might come out as the ai email product right so all these old companies now have to reposition themselves as ai first that's my best advice if your company is part of the last generation whatever we call that generation of companies during zurp um you just gotta reframe it as an ai first company rebrand it maybe even so that the market

SPEAKER_11: perceives it correctly as ai first i think gen zurp is a perfectly fine way to phrase that uh and then

SPEAKER_13: jason just to show you that same kind of data but in a a more global context this shows the uh percentage of dollars invested into ai deals again with the same caveats around the world over time and as you can see uh both north america which is the us and europe which is the eu are by far and away putting the largest share of their venture capital dollars into ai and i think that's pretty bullish for those two markets frankly and i worry about the rest of the world that's not investing as much in those products because they do seem to be the future at least according to you know venture cash flows that we're seeing but this chart i thought was particularly illustrative of uh changing markets and how

SPEAKER_60: they're diverging from one another yeah the the north american market has the most adept skilled

Chamath Palihapitiya: technologists the most aggressive founders and they tend to be the most innovative and then europe tends to be second most and and the rest of the world might be fast followers this is where you'll see i don't know uber or coinbase or linkedin start in the west and then get copied around the world and you might have grab in asia or you know another company copy what was done there and then compete so it's um not surprising to me uh generally you have more i don't want to say let's see um how would i say this about the entrepreneurs you have more seasoned entrepreneurs more aggressive entrepreneurs entrepreneurs who have done it before they're just going to be a little more cutting edge now china

SPEAKER_02: does have moments japan does have moments um australia has moments where they might actually create something truly unique in the world canva comes to mind as something or jira you know things that were unique in the world at their time at those times that came out of another location uh korea with neighbor you know japan um had some super apps and some really interesting um gaming that or social media that that was very innovative and that americans sometimes copied but generally speaking the innovation has happened here and has been copied quickly fast followers in europe because of the english language and the proximity i think and and the entrepreneurs being fluid between those two markets then you have a language difference in japan korea and china but australia also same

Chamath Palihapitiya: language canada same language so you'll see because of that it's very easy to transfer the concepts into another market whereas in japan the culture is so unique and sticky the language is so unique and sticky that it doesn't always translate in fact japanese entrepreneurs the big criticism of them right now and the reason they're i think a little more um they have a nice moat is because the culture is so unique and the behavior is so unique the technology the society is so

SPEAKER_10: unique that what they build doesn't exactly translate into the american market very easily

SPEAKER_13: yeah and just for reference the japanese population 125 million california is what uh 40. so it's about three californias if you want to put it into into those metrics uh all right jason let's talk about qsbs this was a really fun uh policy dive for me because i've never had to deal with it so i didn't actually know it in enough detail uh but for folks who don't know it's called the qualified small business stock exemption or just qsbs in kind of the lingua franca and it was expanded in the one big beautiful bill act so jason previously qsbs allowed investors in a c corp specifically that had assets of less than 50 million dollars at the time of their investment uh to if they held their stock for five years not pay capital gains tax on up to 10 million dollars of the value of their investment so essentially it was a bit of a um loopholes a derogatory term but a perk a benefit for people who invested into smaller companies to not pay capital gains tax on potentially some of their gains now it's been expanded uh in a couple of ways first of all instead of having to wait five years now to earn this benefit you can now um avoid capital gains tax on 50 of your holdings at three years 75 of four years and up to 100 at five years also the cap has been raised from 10 million to 15 million and even better that will go up over time with inflation uh and one last thing that i saw that changed in the bill is that companies can now have up to 75 million dollars in assets instead of 50 at the time of the investment to give their investors this access to a tax uh benefit i think that there's

SPEAKER_14: going to be a lot of people on your group decks who are very excited about this it's certainly a

SPEAKER_00: benefit if you are an angel investor or you're an lp in early stage companies now if you're investing

Chamath Palihapitiya: in mira from open ai's 10 billion dollar company that doesn't count right because if they raise a billion dollars they have a billion dollars in cash it's kind of hard to argue that company's worth less than 50 million but if you were invested in coinbase if you invested in uber airbnb in that first couple of years well it wasn't worth more than 10 20 30 40 billion million dollars therefore you got this

SPEAKER_02: little incentive if you put in i don't know a hundred thousand dollars and it turned into 10 million you wouldn't have to pay those federal taxes on that first 10 million in gains so but you had to hold it for five years so you think about the timing of this it you have to really thread the needle when you make the investment it's got to be a tiny enterprise under 50 million in value they have to file and say hey you know the cfo of the company or the investors have to like make a note on a piece of paper and say yes this company is worth under 50 million it qualifies for qsbs if you were to start the company and buy a billion dollars in servers you can't claim it's under 50 million so this wouldn't work for you know xai or core weave you know at a certain at a certain

Chamath Palihapitiya: investment level but it would work for a software company or a social network etc marketplace if you hold it then you get this incredibly generous if you were to save i don't know 30 on your capital gains tax and i think it's just the federal tax if you save that money you can save a couple of million dollars it's not it's kind of like a little pot sweetener it's not enough to drive people to become angel investors to become lps and seed funds but it's certainly nice and it does come up in our world hey was that a qsbs company fantastic my first 10 million dollars in gains and typically it's like a gain of a million dollars so you're talking about somebody saving low six figures you know in in the average case or high eight figures it's not as juicy as it sounds uh it's nice it does i think drive people if they got rid of it i think you'd lose 20 30 percent of angel investors so there are i would say you know one out of five people who consider this like a driving force for them and it got them off the benches and we should be thinking more and more about this now it's i could understand socialists i've been watching the socialism 2025 conference somebody's like taking all these clips from these wacky socialists in this conference talking about like taking over the means of production and getting rid of the state and you know seizing people's assets and stuff like that i can understand this being triggering because it's like well you're an angel investor you make a ton of money and then you don't pay tax what about you know somebody who's working at mcdonald's or starbucks should they have to pay taxes the truth is when you look at the actual amount of tax coming in those people don't pay tax like they pay almost nothing into the

SPEAKER_03: overall budget of cities states and government so if you're actually looking at the numbers

Chamath Palihapitiya: it's inconsequential to the budget the amount of money being paid by baristas as just an example or uber drivers whatever taxes they're paying it drives nothing it doesn't pay for anything in the budgets it's 90 percent of the taxes are paid by the top 10 or 20 depending on the region you're in

SPEAKER_02: and you know it's kind of interesting concept here for people to think about um they did add if oh and that thing with like you have to hold it for five years okay but what if the company gets bought early what happens if they get so that's three or four years after and now they've made a little concession there so i i guess this is like one of these tiny things in these giant bills that whoever lobbied for it i don't know who is lobbying for this maybe the national venture capital association or somebody uh lobbied for this heavily and got it but uh it's kind of how our system works it doesn't make an impact on my life i'll be honest i would still do what i do with or

SPEAKER_13: without this yeah so uh senator john soon was one of the people behind it but the thing that i'm trying to sort out and i don't actually have a a dog in this fight particularly jason so don't don't think that i'm setting you up here but the change in the cost of qsbs uh is about 17 billion according to the joint committee on taxation so qsbs was going to cost about 45 billion over 10 years now it's going to cost about 62 just to kind of put it in perspective do you think we're going to get enough people to do more angel investing to make it worth 17 billion dollars in extra spend at the national level over the next decade i guess probably probably trade-off probably and the people

Chamath Palihapitiya: who make that money or who's the people who save that money my view of them is they go invest it so these are like the most frisky gamblers in the space so if somebody like me were to save money on

SPEAKER_00: qsbs or some seed fund do they just take the money and then like some italian rich family you know redo their castle and hoard the money no they go invested and they're frisky they're going to go find the next airbnb they're going to go do the next investment so i think even with the savings you got to

Chamath Palihapitiya: ask yourself how many more companies get built i would say it's like 10 20 more companies get built because of this 10 20 more money gets invested and then these people are frisky recyclers they go spend

SPEAKER_110: the money so i like it's 10 or 20 more that's cheap cheap that cheaper twice i think that's kind of why

Chamath Palihapitiya: this thing i believe this came out during i don't remember exactly when this came out but um i think it came out during uh obama so we can actually look that up of when did qsbs what's the

SPEAKER_00: uh when did qsbs start let's see oh boy when did it start let's see enacted in august 1993. wow um i

SPEAKER_03: didn't realize it was that old so i guess this has been around since 1993. well what have we seen

SPEAKER_11: since 1993 an explosion in the technology sector venture capital investment and uh the united states

SPEAKER_13: still is the absolute you know apex just to go back to the q2 numbers to make the point jason in the first quarter in the second quarter there was about 102 billion dollars invested by vcs around the world the us got 70. so you know i there's probably some connection between favorable tax treatment and and activity i just i'm glad you think it's worth it because it's not it's not cheap uh with a 70

SPEAKER_27: billion dollar you know bill over the next 10 years but if it's worth it cool so if you want more

SPEAKER_02: coin bases ubers airbnbs um core weaves xai's open ai's if you want more of those then you want

Chamath Palihapitiya: policies like these if you want bigger companies you want more facebook's and metas and apples and tesla's amazon's you want to have more m a so you have to just decide as uncomfortable as it is i think

SPEAKER_00: for some people to make this uh to to swallow this bitter pill if people who are already making a lot of money if you give them the ability to invest more and you make it easier for them to invest more

Chamath Palihapitiya: it's actually better for everybody that's hard for people to get their heads around because they're like wait that person's already rich bezos is already rich why should amazon and andy jassy's already rich uh you know the people who work at facebook zuckerberg's already rich why should they be able to buy more companies and make their company bigger well if you look at it as hey we're all americans and that company is a global company that's making money around the world it's giving an advantage to our country that's why we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes that's why the country has done so well yeah it's just hard for i think people on the bottom sometimes or really highly educated people as i wrote in my piece on my sub stack the other week with generation she i think uh shout out to lon who came up with that term for me um for the for that socialist bent i think it's really hard when

SPEAKER_03: you have 200 300 000 in student loans and no job prospects because your degree means nothing to employers it's pretty hard to buy into capitalism right all right uh let's talk about um tick tock

SPEAKER_13: really quick jason i just want to touch on this so everyone's up to date uh we've discussed the oh man what is it at this point in time the potential forced sale of tick tock or the ban of tick tock uh as everyone recalls this came to a head uh january 19th and 20th when tick tock went

SPEAKER_119: dark for a couple of hours i think is what your divestiture is that the word divestiture that is

SPEAKER_13: the word yeah thank you uh hashtag monday yeah uh the forced divestiture of tick tock or its ban in the u.s and essentially the latest is that donald trump has once again uh given a reprieve this time i think it's 90 days previously it was 75 but we're still in limbo about what this is going to look like the good news for everyone out there who cares is that according to the information tick tock is getting ready to release a new version of its app now internally tick tock is called m apparently and the new version is going to be called in two uh because apparently no one over there has creativity uh but they're gonna have to drop this app potentially in september and the way that i understand it people are going to have to re-download a new application so it won't just be an update to tick tock my thought here is tick tock is one of the few companies with enough brand pull to actually get their user base to install a new application but it still won't be easy and i don't think we actually have this deal tied up as much as people hope so far thoughts okay so

SPEAKER_00: the concept here is that tick tock is willing to divest because that's been the big question so if they're if they have a plan that means they're taking our threat seriously that it's going to be removed from the app store and that the chinese government is willing to let it go that's kind of

Chamath Palihapitiya: the i guess the bigger information here the fact that there's actually a plan to get people to get the product divested and in the clear and away from the chinese communist party that seems like evidence that this is going to happen i don't think they would do all this work if it wasn't going to happen which i think is this deal is now being done as part of the larger trade deal that trump's trying to do which means the chinese government values the trade deal more than the spyware inherent and the influence inherent in owning a social network like tick tock that would

SPEAKER_37: be my read on it of what's happening here i think that's fair uh also this month trump said the quote we

SPEAKER_13: pretty much have a deal with china on the matter which implies that at least things are moving forward though i'll just say jason until the ccp signs off on this deal it's not done so i have progress moving forward but we don't have a bow on it yet and trade negotiations have proved this year to be

SPEAKER_27: a little bit back and forth um so you know chickens eggs counting hatched yep it's um this is like

SPEAKER_00: multiple extensions there was that january 19th deadline then there was an extension then there

Chamath Palihapitiya: was another extension so i don't know how you can give this many extensions i thought he was allowed to give one uh president trump whatever it is this it's untenable for us i've said this a million times on the podcast it's untenable for us to not have reciprocity if we can't have facebook instagram twitter whatever it is in uh youtube freely available in china they shouldn't be able to have tick tock here and if they're unwilling to divest it it tells you everything you need to know because that means the massive hundreds of billions of dollars in value unlocked by it is not as valuable to them as the spying ability that it provides them knowing where every american is having access to microphones

SPEAKER_02: camera rolls location data and who knows what else you know the ability probably to turn on the microphone of the camera covertly probably exists or to inject other spyware um you know that that that kind of software exists in the world so why would the chinese government be able to do it in certain circumstances i'm sure they would um and just even knowing like hey this senator has two daughters and those two daughters are in college and they love tick tock and they're uploading videos constantly and um yeah now we know where they are uh they are with their mom or dad in cabo at this location i mean i know this sounds crazy but wasn't bolton targeted or who was the um in the first trump administration one of his military guys was being targeted by iran

SPEAKER_66: to be assassinated uh lawn says it was bolton uh actually lost producer claude to verify that if

SPEAKER_02: we can yeah yeah that we gotta ask claude because there were two it was bolton and then there was another guy who lost i guess trump took away his security detail and that was a big part of the um

SPEAKER_34: rule about that is that it came out that iran was going to murder a couple of or had assassination

SPEAKER_13: plants so now yes the yeah go ahead the biden administration offered a 20 million dollar reward uh for information on the iranian that was charged to plot to kill uh john bolton who by the way was a trump administration official so the biden admin was actually running defense for the preceding

Chamath Palihapitiya: administration got it so now we look at this and say okay if you were going to assassinate god forbid

SPEAKER_00: you know some i don't know a cia agent a navy seal a senator a president a former president

Chamath Palihapitiya: who around that person so now you're like okay the daughters in this hypothetical if bolton had two daughters okay the daughters don't have it on their phone they've been warned to take it and delete

SPEAKER_00: it off their phone but uh i don't know they invited their friend or the nanny has it and they know who the nanny is and then they know the nanny's in proximity to this other phone because they have

SPEAKER_02: spyware on it and now you know exactly when this person goes and plays golf you know where they're going to be on the golf course and boom just like that lunatic the second person who was trying to kill trump was on that golf course on the next hole before they caught him like how do you think these things occur folks they occur because bad actors can get a pattern on somebody and once they have the pattern the pattern doesn't have to be the the principle that you're assassinating i mean why do i know so much about this i watch too many uh spy thrillers but this is how they get that kind of information i know this because i had a friend who was um i would say which elite force but like a navy seal not a navy seal but one of those like top elite forces and he said they had so much al-qaeda interest that he had to stop using facebook he had to i was like why are you unfriending me what happened like where's your facebook and he's like oh we had to turn ours on everybody had to turn them on private this is during the gulf war this is years ago like 10 years ago like 15 years ago like early days they all had to turn off their facebook profiles they had to delete connections they had to take all their pictures down it was like a whole thing in the military because those

SPEAKER_00: assets were worth like my friend as an asset he told me he was worth 15 or 20 million to america because of how much they had trained him over a decade um and how how many there were of him in the world and what they did so there there was some estimate they were worth 10 20 million dollars each a navy seal might be worth 50 million to the united states as an asset that they track and all the

Chamath Palihapitiya: work that goes into getting those elite players these other you know uh adversaries want to kill

SPEAKER_14: those people or compromise them uh both of those things so yeah i think a lot about this in the

SPEAKER_11: context of my my brother uh who's a he's a major in the army and like you know he's he has a ranger tab the army's put a lot of money into him and he's probably valued on some spreadsheet in that way it's

SPEAKER_13: interesting to think about i like that framing uh last question on the uh the tick tock point though jason just what's it worth people are saying 40 to 50 billion uh we now also know that by dance the company that owns it was valued at 315 billion in a secondary offering so a lot of money here a lot of moving parts questions about legality of delays but here we are new app coming probably going to see this happen you can probably keep tick talking everybody you can keep whatever it is you do on tick dock you won't be stopped and that's nice for folks out there who care a lot including us because on twist we are now uh we're streaming on tick tock we're doing tick tocks we're we're out there cool

Chamath Palihapitiya: now we're well yeah we're we're experimenting on it and uh yeah there it is all right so uh poly

SPEAKER_13: market today's poly market jason is a fun one i am a big old fan of the philadelphia eagles as i'm sure i'm sure you know uh they are my nfl team and i've been supporting them for fly oh yeah okay go birds baby uh and i was browsing through the poly market website and i found my favorite chart that i've seen in recent weeks which shows that according to the sharps over on poly market well the philadelphia eagles are currently leading the predictions for becoming the next super bowl champion in 2026 and as you'll know there's been 6.6 million dollars wagered on this thus far which is quite a lot uh the thing that i'm scared about though is that we're not beating the other teams by much as you can see their betting's actually pretty tight here uh what's your team i guess the giants technically because i grew

SPEAKER_137: up a giant fan yeah let's see where are the giants uh that would be the last last one percent jets

SPEAKER_142: there's the jets yeah oh literally dead dead last they're dead last yeah uh you should take a bet on

SPEAKER_145: that that'd be a huge one if you won uh well you know this is interesting in the uh bill back better

Chamath Palihapitiya: act again related to startups and all of these things if you're placing an investment and these are investments in poly market or these other prediction markets are considered investments not bets so as investments you would not get hit by this new gambling tax i don't know if you saw that where they're going to put a tax on gambling winnings and so it used to be you just netted out okay i made 100 000 i lost 90 000 i netted 10 i pay tax on 10 some convoluted way to pay more taxes on your winnings and you don't get to net out all your losses so you know if you you you might have to pay more

SPEAKER_02: uh than you actually made and um there's a whole bunch of back and forth on it but there's some speculation that the prediction markets are excluded from this and then the casinos would then take the brunt of this with their big players uh who have to net out their earnings this would affect people who are high stakes poker players i know a lot of them who are playing in like the triton and stuff like that my friend jason coon and others uh phil helmuth like they have very complicated accounting but it it's actually they have to they have a very complicated life and that they have to track all their gambling uh winning wins and losses and then they don't get to carry losses forward like it's just in that calendar year so that's kind of a bummer too i would think that the losses would carry forward so if you lost 100 000 one year 100 000 the next year you could carry forward the losses maybe a couple years that would but i guess we don't want to encourage more gambling that would encourage more people to gamble wouldn't it so here i guess we're going to disincentivize people

Chamath Palihapitiya: from gambling there's a bunch of uh the heart and soul of all of this is the free market should people be able to gamble should people be able to buy crypto should people be able to invest in startups through tokens or venture funds and become accredited i think we have to as a society just go with what the majority of people believe and want the will of the populace uh and i think the will is people want choice for women when it comes to reproductive rights they want cannabis legalized they want gay marriage and they want to be able to place wagers bets investments gambling however

SPEAKER_02: you want to frame it with their own dollars with you know some basic rules of the road and so all of this is related it's all the same thing startup investing poly market and prediction markets

Chamath Palihapitiya: uh gam wagering price picks all this stuff i play i do a hundred dollars to 500 a game when i do uh on the knicks when the playoffs are going on if i remember in time for the game i just like to have like a little skin in the game and i you know i probably do it 30 times i've done it maybe 30 times so maybe i've done it actually it's a lot a couple thousand maybe five or ten maybe i bet five or ten

SPEAKER_03: thousand dollars and i like it it makes the game more enjoyable to me all right so just to close

SPEAKER_13: things off from my end today jason uh core we've come we've talked about a lot a neo cloud with a focus on ai compute and public earlier this year did very very well that's going to come into play here is going to issue about nine billion dollars worth of shares to purchase core scientific core scientific was a company that was big on the crypto mining space and like many other players in that industry is pivoting towards uh ai compute and what's interesting here is that core scientific and core we've had already come to a deal uh that was going to be a relatively long expensive transaction involving core weave leasing space from core scientific but paying for some capex and it was one of those tricky financial deals that makes a lot of sense if you're two particular assets and now they're going to be brought together what i found interesting about this deal and why i think it's newsy for us is that usually when someone announces they're going to buy a company the price of the company that they're buying goes up if it's public because they offer a premium in this case and i was curious why uh core scientific tanked and that's a weird one so at current prices um the 0.1235 shares of core weave stock that you'll get each share of course scientific is worth about 20 bucks but the company core scientific is now trading for about 14 a share so what explains the investor pessimism uh there i i think it's simply that they don't think core weave is properly valued and they expect that the value of core weave stock is going to go down and given that the transaction will be priced at the end but their unit conversion of stock stock will not change uh they're betting

SPEAKER_58: that core is going to lose 30 40 50 percent of value between now and when this deal actually concludes in q4 uh but i love seeing deals core weave market cap 76 billion uh it's pretty huge

Chamath Palihapitiya: revenue is like a billion dollars a quarter something like that so four billion so yeah it's it's trading at quite a premium um and i don't think they're making money i think they're losing money so there is no price to earnings this is all quite speculative for now and if you felt your stock in core scientific was based on more reality you know uh they're doing 80 million a quarter so you know call it 350 or something like that uh yeah uh you might want to sell now and that's probably what you're seeing is yeah it's down 13 and this is where when you have a heart a high market cap you want to use that high market cap to buy other assets so that's what this shows here is core weave has an advantage here because of that huge market cap they can go buy things and especially private things and then you don't have a choice as an investor in a private company other than to say like i don't agree with this you generally get dragged along with the majority of shareholders which tend to be the biggest investors plus the founders so yeah it is a um this is why some people ask for cash right and to buy for for core weave to buy this other company would require billions of dollars in cash and uh yeah that's

SPEAKER_27: not going to happen when you have a giant market cap buy stuff you know buy stuff yeah uh do you think the grammarly uh superhuman deal falls under that admittedly in the startup side of things private

SPEAKER_02: stock a lot of value there i don't have the details of it and so i shouldn't say anything yet because people assume i have the details i was on the rafting trip and i haven't talked to raul but my guess is these things tend to be all stock deals although we did see grammarly raise a bunch of money i think and then i think grammarly is going to buy five of these things and take them public if that happens if they were to buy five or ten assets that are all growing and that have loyal user bases that are loved and they take it public yeah that could be a great company uh it would be

Chamath Palihapitiya: kind of like the iac i think somebody should do that for consumer apps as well so if you were to buy apps you know like a collection of subscription apps i subscribe to fit bod which we're investors in steezy uh the dance app uh we're investors in calm obviously and people you probably subscribe to a couple of consumer apps that you know if you were to put that are that aren't already public like spotify or netflix if you were to take a group of those together there would be some common infrastructure like accounting like marketing like pr like corporate uh human resources all of that could be done by one group and then all you'd have left is product and tech and when the and that when an innovation happened from one it could apply to the other so i think these roll-ups given how vibrant the market is uh and how great of an idea that is i would like to see and how much inventory there is out there this could be like a really interesting iac wrap up or penske media has bought a bunch of assets and so iac has a bunch of uh and then match.com i think bought a bunch of which is part of dating services yeah that was part of iac they spun it out so there's match.com the league and a tinder all of those assets are one giant company i think and they have like legal as an example as one consolidated group to protect all their patents right uh match group is what it's

SPEAKER_11: called now yeah thank you uh yeah go ahead i know i'm just i'm just laughing at that i'm on their um list of brands and they have so many this is kind of incredible i didn't realize there were so many

SPEAKER_13: sub brands in the dating space just for the u.s market for straight people crazy democratic people meet divorced people meet interracial people meet j people meet latino people meet lds planet there's so many

Chamath Palihapitiya: who knew uh jdate there were all of these like it was like there was a vertical for everything and it it's i'm trying to figure out what the market cap of this is it's match group mtch is the uh i guess that's their ticker and uh it hasn't done particularly well looks like it was 7.8 billion and at its peak uh during the zirper in 2021 it was trading you know at uh 160 a share it's now 30. so it's down 80 percent since then that's pretty gross it's not shocking did you see the the news that bumble

SPEAKER_13: is laying off a bunch of its stuff i forget that this came out when you were on the river um i did see that it does seem that yeah the dating space jason is kind of cooked i don't think it's going well i don't think anyone's happy with it and so i mean look if you're a startup founder and you have a great idea for a dating service probably right now is a great time to do it because no one

SPEAKER_02: likes what's on the market yeah that actually might be um yeah counter way to look at this if everybody's frustrated with the current product offering and they find it painful that means there could be a better way some people might say there must be a better way must be a better way to trade crypto must be a better way to find an apartment to rent or to go on vacation must be a better way to

Chamath Palihapitiya: get a car must be a better way to get food to your house so yeah uh all right everybody for this week in startups i'm jason calacanis you can follow me x.com jason he's alex wilhelm x.com alex and

David Friedberg: cautious optimism dot news dot news dot news we'll see you all next time bye bye