SPEAKER_00: you're literally gonna have an optimist robot you know a middle class upper middle class household somebody who could afford a tesla you know 10 years ago like a hundred thousand dollar tesla they're going to be able to afford to have a 500 a month robot general purpose robot getting those

SPEAKER_01: eggs chasing away the using the ai on that coop to know that the foxes are there chase the foxes grab the eggs make scrambled eggs make you a frittata to your specification wait for it it's

SPEAKER_03: coming bring it this week in startups is brought to you by paddle self-serve software is global by default but selling to every country is complicated paddle's merchant of record manages payments sales tax chargebacks and refunds so you don't have to wherever you want to take your business go there with paddle go to paddle.com twist to get started with your exclusive listener fee-free period northwest registered agent starting your business should be simple with northwest registered agent you can form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks in 10 minutes from llcs to trademarks domains to custom websites they've got you covered get more privacy more options and more done visit northwestregisteredagent.com twist today and scalable path since 2010 scalable path has connected businesses with top-tier remote developers deeply vetted and ready to deliver from javascript to machine learning they've helped over 300 companies tackle big projects and scale faster visit scalablepath.com twist for 20 off your first month all right everybody welcome back to this week in

SPEAKER_05: startups alex wilhelm jason calacanis here three days a week monday wednesday friday or about an hour and

SPEAKER_01: 15 to an hour and 30 on the live stream and then we edit that down to the best 50 to 60 minutes for the podcast for the replay crew if you want to watch us live just search for this weekend startup on youtube and then uh you can follow me x.com slash jason x.com alex we go live on my x account we also go live on linkedin which has a very cool live product as well today is friday january 31st can you believe it but i am super excited because i'm not as sick as i've been the last literally would be two weeks as of

SPEAKER_00: monday when i got hit at the oh yeah i mean you got hit january 20th literally at the day of the inauguration i got hit with this influenza a and then some kind of deep lung uh thing but uh i'm out of it now so that's good and the covet outbreak at my house is over yeah there you go well i'm coming back to life but man these respiratory illnesses this winter a lot of theories about it i think it's just that everybody i was talking to a friend of mine will barnes and you know putting aside

SPEAKER_01: conspiracy theories there's a really interesting explanation we because we all sheltered in place for a couple of years the thinking is maybe we all uh had our immunity go down a little bit and uh now that we're all out in the world again doing stuff on mass in a large way hey maybe uh

SPEAKER_09: things are starting to spread but did you get it too in your household did you get the we have just had

SPEAKER_11: a series of colds so there's always been one to three runny noses in the house jason and that has just been seemingly chronic for the last month and a half so i don't even know if i'm sick right now

SPEAKER_13: because i don't recall not being slightly sick so i i'm just really excited for spring i want everyone to go outside to the park and get outside of the strollers and just get out of the cabin fever moment i've had enough snow i'm glad you're going to go skiing but here in providence if there was no

SPEAKER_01: more snow i would be a okay with that all right well we got a lot on the docket let's just get started here and for those of you who want to follow the docket we're doing something new this week in startups.com docket you can just see the docket and then what we're seeing is uh some of

SPEAKER_00: the super fans uh what we used to call the producers uh we used to have a cool program where we let

SPEAKER_16: people subscribe like on patreon or something and they would become uh we would call them executive

SPEAKER_19: producers producers depending on the level they did and it was never like some grand amount of money i think it was like a low thousands of dollars a month but what it did was it kind of gave people

SPEAKER_01: permission to have fun participate in the show so i'd like you to participate in the show by going to thisweekinstartups.com and if you go there any day you'll see the docket being built by the research team in real time you get more data and you can contribute to it by posting comments because we're

SPEAKER_00: using notion i believe we are notion allows the public to post a public comment correct that's how we

SPEAKER_14: have it set up absolutely so if you're on the twist 500 newsletter list you'll get an email

SPEAKER_13: every single show day usually about an hour to an hour and a half before we go live and people are dropping in comments we just love the feedback we love the interactivity we love hearing from you and also jason you and i are two people we're not going to see absolutely everything so more eyes more

SPEAKER_21: folks more input you might even call it crowdsourcing as we used to back in the day but i love it yeah and

SPEAKER_01: let's put a section there uh stories you want to hear so maybe at the top we could put suggested stories and then people could just comment there and just throw urls and everything you want us to you know rapid fire or and then maybe questions uh startup questions but let's review what we're

SPEAKER_11: going to talk about today what's on the docket quite a lot first of all 11 labs closed it's enormous

SPEAKER_13: 180 million series c we have some financial information to go through there it's a round that i'm very excited about a lot of commentary about deep seek and the singapore nvidia connection and if a lot of nvidia chips are going through singapore we have data and a chart uh jason also softbank might be dropping an enormous new sum of money into open ai there's been breaking news all day about tariffs and then of course we have an antitrust story because it wouldn't be twist without talking about antitrust and uh what the trump administration is doing with the hpe juniper

SPEAKER_00: deal and why it's a little surprising and there was that y-combinator um hey here's a bunch of uh you know they like to do their call for startups requests for startups that we do as well and um it

SPEAKER_01: was basically get rid of these jobs replace these jobs so the static team size trend is now becoming a trend of compressed team size or consolidating teams size and so let's make sure we put a list of our trends that we're following on the docket as well maybe or a link to it and you can all see the trends that we're kind of thinking about here as we try to build a mental model of where the world

SPEAKER_00: is going and i know that we were talking about uh the meta smart glasses and uh i saw there was some

SPEAKER_13: data about that maybe we just start there the news here is that during an all hands over at meta uh that leaked because they always do uh mark zuckerberg unveiled that they sold a million of the ray-ban smart glasses and the commentary inside the company was how did we get from one to two one to five but jason we discussed on the show that you know reality labs and meta's overall vr push has been highly expensive and some people say wasteful but they do seem to have found a consumer hit in these ray-ban glasses and to me that does show that one snap was right a little early but was correct the spectacles and that also we're going to see a multi-form factor face computer world because if you think about where apple's going with the uh vision pro compared to consumer vr compared to this all very different all good services for ai and kind of consumer tooling so i'm shocked it was

Chamath Palihapitiya: that high it's a lot of money yeah and you know selling something that is under 500 under 400 or into 300 every time you come down like a hundred bucks there consumption goes up people will try stuff and let's face it these vr glasses have always been like a christmas present level platform level purchase yeah which makes it you know for most americans i usually put it at when it gets to a week's salary or something like that you're really in considered territory so if you know average

SPEAKER_01: person makes you know the united states whatever a thousand bucks a week you start looking at that you know when things cost a thousand bucks you gotta think hey well it's a whole week's salary

Chamath Palihapitiya: whether it's a car payment or whatever so then we go back down to the next level when it's a day's salary when it's a hundred bucks two hundred bucks people can get frisky yeah you know i work today

SPEAKER_01: now i work five hours as a door dash driver i bought these hundred dollar glasses or two hundred dollar glasses people feel a little bit different about it so i think they're what is the retail

SPEAKER_13: price on these now is it 300 or 299. there's actually price differences based on i think which models you get and so forth but between three and four hundred dollars yeah so they're they're

SPEAKER_01: about to drop down to a price that you know i could see them selling 10 million of these you know a year where if you were thinking about buying sunglasses and having sunglasses that can record photos like what's the difference and so i always wonder why or i wonder what the build of materials are on these and then how much they're losing on them if this actually is a really good platform they could afford to lose money on it sure and uh you know sell them at a bit of a discount so

David Friedberg: um you know here what did they say there these are 329 and they also have options in the 379.

SPEAKER_11: i actually i was just fact checking myself i think they're actually kind of cool looking

SPEAKER_13: uh because i was worried that i was talking out of my backside but no i had it right i think if they got down to 150 they would sell yeah at least five million a year but then here's okay i'm always a big fan of corporations that have a lot of money be very aggressive on pricing going out there and building new markets taking leadership and just eating the cost for a bit because they

SPEAKER_43: have so much money so if you were meta jason how much would you be willing to lose per device on these things i think i'd be cool with 50 bucks yeah i mean if you if you did 50 and you got to

SPEAKER_28: millions of people using these would those people uh be posting more to their instagram would then

Chamath Palihapitiya: their followers engage more with their content because this content is unique so there's a whole formula of downstream users and then there's also lock-in so did these lock people in and create a moat for instagram you know for facebook and you know i just i don't participate in facebook except to send

SPEAKER_00: my occasional instagram photos of skiing or food to it uh or stories like that and so you know i am

SPEAKER_01: amazed that there are still like old people on facebook like a lot of the gen xers and you know

David Friedberg: my parents and they're people between my age and my parents age are all over facebook my parents are on it and my siblings are not there you go did you know you're required to pay digital sales tax

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SPEAKER_01: story is about 11 labs i think is super interesting the basic reason 11 labs exists is because of agents

SPEAKER_13: correct so voice ai and in their case i think it's mostly aimed at kind of the customer success and support function with some other bells and whistles but it's not agentic in the way we think of agents

SPEAKER_01: like the open ai operator sensors got it okay so they made they're doing voice which means either um processing voice on the way in or processing it on the way out so if you call customer support an agent's going to talk to you and that agent is going to be powered by 11 labs yes they have some

SPEAKER_13: of their own models they also have a way that you can with words tell the ai how you want to do sound so you can kind of design your own ai voice they have a consumer app that's pretty popular that lets people um just use their voice ai technology to read stuff back to them they've even built a new sound feature that lets you describe a sound effect you want and it'll create that for you so i think it's definitely been very focused on the ai voice application but they're expanding more into just anything involving ai and sound which is pretty exciting um but the news for everyone who might be a little bit behind is that a much reported uh series c was put together it is a 180 million dollar round at a 3.3 billion dollar valuation and jason we've talked a lot about unicorns in the 2021 era context i don't think that those companies that were raising at one two three billion back in peak zerp had 90 million uh dollars in run rate i mean so this company to me is already almost old school ipo signs a couple years into its life showing frankly how much revenue there is to be generated by leading ai startups i view this as a pretty bullish overall event and the valuation

SPEAKER_43: 37x give or take bacon one year of growth it's 20. so to me i can kind of see this i i'm not that

SPEAKER_24: mad about it okay so yeah they had according to reports 25 million in 2023 and then it jumped up

Chamath Palihapitiya: to 80 million people estimating arr was closer to 90 million you know and you can get the reoccurring revenue just by taking the last month if it's subscription times you buy 12 obviously and so if they're at 90 million uh you know 10 times that is 940 times that is 3.6 uh billion that's about where we're at here so yeah it's not a crazy multiple given that they tripled revenue year over year and so when you're calculating revenue for startups if you're tripling revenue year over year

SPEAKER_01: that is considered hyper growth if you're growing 30 20 anywhere from 15 to 30 percent in the public

SPEAKER_00: market you're high growth yes so if you put the facebooks the apples ubers airbnbs and they're growing 15 to 30 year over year on larger numbers billions of dollars in revenue that's considered high growth but at the startup phase you know you're looking for tripling revenue year over year which is roughly you know what high growth in the public markets would be 15 to 30 percent so you're

SPEAKER_01: looking at you know you have 10 20 times yes that velocity in order to get these premium valuations and i guess this is being made by people doing api calls so this is a business very similar to aws it's a cloud service you use it to make sounds and to make these agents and to do voice so it's you know destined to become part of the suite offered by people like aws oracle google cloud and microsoft

SPEAKER_13: azure that's who they're competing against yeah yeah i think an under-reported story and i'm pointing that finger at myself is ai companies teaming up with aws with azure with gcp and using those as a sales funnel a lot of noise was made this week about microsoft quickly adding r1 to azure which people thought was kind of a flick of sam altman's earlobe and maybe maybe not but i do think that the distribution uh commercial distribution available via major cloud platforms is enormous so i view it more as like a a potential partnership with the hyperscaler jason versus a competition like i don't

SPEAKER_62: think microsoft wants to get into the voice ai model game per se there'll be open source models to do

SPEAKER_01: this i don't believe 11 labs is an open source model there'll be open source models that do this the regular language models will do it and then you'll just be picking based on price and fidelity so you know it's always good to pull up the pricing page to understand startups and what they're doing so if you go to 11labs.io pricing we can take a look at what they're charging and when you look at what people are charging and how they're charging that's a really easy way for anybody analyzing a business to understand it and they're selling credits from individual creators to enterprises they have a plan for you and for creators if you want to make content you can do this for 11 bucks a month you get a hundred thousand credit limit and you can make 100 minutes of ultra high quality text to speech per month 100 minutes of conversational ai with up to 10 concurrent requests etc and you get these professional voice cloning to create the most realistic digital replica of your voice so i'd love for our team for the next episode on monday to just try this 11 lab please just sign up for this and let's try making a version of me doing an ad and just take a couple episodes put it in there

Chamath Palihapitiya: and let's see if we can make an ad and how hard it is for a content creator to do this i love that this is another example of like my lord um if we could actually make a better version of me reading

SPEAKER_01: the ads that was higher fidelity uh that was crisper and that could be made in real time you start thinking about the possibilities now everybody loves a host red ad great but imagine if we ip or you know use localization content and somebody like i don't know let's say uh linkedin wanted you to uh be able to talk to a local rep rather than you know uh just going to a linkedin forum right to get your job

SPEAKER_00: listing now imagine you know the australian audience and you know whatever 5 000 people in australia

Chamath Palihapitiya: hear the ad and at the end of the ad it says hey go to uh you know talk to susie at linkedin australia they're having this right and they just made a google sheet you know a database of you know the 20 different regions that they're targeting who the ambassador uh was for that region for this sas product or for you know whatever you know cloud service it is that we're promoting here on the

SPEAKER_01: podcast you know that could be very powerful and it would be in my voice so i think that's what's coming and that's going to be super interesting for folks all right you know that is such a great

SPEAKER_13: positive take on voice cloning and i think we often just hear the bad stories like you know parents a strange son gets voice cloned and they get ripped out of 500 000 whatever but i like the optimistic take there and i think it's going to be pretty cool for sales organizations because imagine if you just take out that customization that voice maybe not your voice prestigious but like you know one of their best aes and then you could do so much that's automated on the sales side my concern only becomes though that eventually if we only have robots talking to robots i wonder if they're going to be

SPEAKER_11: able to actually do deals uh because you have to have a human on one side of the ai doing the answering

Chamath Palihapitiya: i suppose it does feel like we will be having a moment uh and we'll come up with a theme for this but um you know it's kind of like they came for my job and so when did they come for your job is i want everybody to think about this because we're all like really high on uh you know uh waymo and tesla self-driving zooks and self-driving to save lives but there's also going to be millions of jobs that are

SPEAKER_01: going to go away because of that you know it'll take 10 years or so and then here you know when did they come for the podcaster's job and here we are you know i'm literally talking about hey maybe

Chamath Palihapitiya: we don't need me to do this and if you look at the notebook lm i was just about to say podcast

SPEAKER_75: feature to like learn and it's a bit of a gimmick right now but it will get to the point where you

Chamath Palihapitiya: will have a podcast created custom for you every day yeah that you know knows what you're interested

SPEAKER_01: in and some ai reporter will uh read you the news if you know as boba fett or whatever your favorite character is and i don't know if that'll be i think there'll be a counter to it which will be people will want a more authentic imperfect acoustic bespoke artisanal and you see that already we have mass production of food people can get you know literally a dog food i was talking to uh

SPEAKER_76: talking to mike jones from uh science labs and you know we have an investment with them in this uh sour boss candy there and they did uh liquid death and he was recalling going and talking to

SPEAKER_01: uh walmart or target or one of these big people and they were talking about innovation and the big

Chamath Palihapitiya: innovation was putting cereal in dog food bags that was the big innovation uh at walmart in other words

SPEAKER_75: you know you've seen the big dog food bags imagine buying one of those for your family with corn flakes in them to spike everybody's glucose and make them that's about to say i think the maha team will

SPEAKER_14: have a really big view on bigger bags of corn cereal hey founders you want to build the next

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Chamath Palihapitiya: at the counter which is on the maha side which i'm a big fan of well people making overnight oats from raw oats and you know using you know more organic products and so there's always a counter to you know the the processed so the more we process stuff and the more we create efficiencies the more

SPEAKER_01: people are going to also want organic efficient stuff and we're putting our chicken coop in next week and there's this really cool company uh you can look it up but i met this founder who has a chicken

Chamath Palihapitiya: coop company and it's a smart chicken coop he sent me one you know i don't like to take free

SPEAKER_00: things but he insisted and he sent it and i was like okay fine and so um we're setting this up this

Chamath Palihapitiya: week and uh here it is i'll give him a free plug here but we're gonna have a coop and this one is a smart coop that has hd cameras and automatic coop door all weather design it monitors with ai has

SPEAKER_01: real-time insights and remember i talked about the ridiculousness of like oh there's a cold plunge app go polar well people responded to that clip you know in a big way thanks to the team for making a nice clip of this you know you can make very niche things with ai with small teams now here is a smart chicken coop and i said to him like oh i might be interested in uh you know investing this and then he told me how much he'd raised and i was like oh my lord now what are the problems with chicken coops

Chamath Palihapitiya: alex you ask is maintaining chickens yeah uh it's it's hard work and your chickens get slaughtered by predators yeah and so they just looked at like what makes owning a chicken coop hard and it's like

SPEAKER_01: monitoring the chickens making sure they don't get you know if there's eggs you know maintenance whatever and they went down that list and solved it there's a big movement in the united states to get off the grid you know with solar with batteries and with protein and with vegetables and when we have robotics you're gonna have 10 years from now you're gonna start to see people who are living off grid with batteries with solar you're already seeing that with starling with these chicken coops and with an optimist robot for 500 bucks a month instead of a car walking around bringing the eggs from the coop to your house and making you scrambled eggs 10 years from now okay you're literally gonna have

SPEAKER_00: an optimist robot you know a middle class upper middle class household somebody who could afford a tesla you know 10 years ago like a hundred thousand dollar tesla they're gonna be able to afford to have a 500 a month robot general purpose robot getting those eggs chasing away the using the ai on

SPEAKER_01: that coop to know that the foxes are there chase the foxes grab the eggs make scrambled eggs make

SPEAKER_14: you a frittata to your specification wait for it it's coming bring it that sounds awesome i'll take it

SPEAKER_13: i i'm look i'm not i like breakfast but i hate cooking in the morning so bring on the frittata bring on the omelet scramble it fry it don't care but i want to go back so those coops are 2500 at the bit the top end which is less than i expected frankly um but you said how much money this guy raised are you can you tell us because i couldn't find a crunch based profile i don't i don't want to say

Chamath Palihapitiya: because i didn't know but it was basically he had left the seed stage where we we we invest pre-seed with found university put the first 25k check into a company before they're incorporated at a million dollar valuation then we do a accelerator where we put money in at like a two million dollar valuation like ycom and other people and then we will participate in five to ten million dollar valuation seed rounds typically keep our prorata put a little bit more in to support the founder if the terms are reasonable and there's some growth and then we leave it up to the seed community seed dedicated funds and for series a funds and so if you're interested in any of that go to launch.co or go to founder.university that's where we like to invest so you know sometimes we're not the right

David Friedberg: investor for people who are at that series a phase because there's other folks who do that kind of investing well i mean shout out to the chicken coop guy my sister in sunnyvale which i'll just

SPEAKER_13: i won't say any more details about that but she has chickens in her backyard because she has a particularly large lot and i thought she was going full-on crunchy granola like our hometown back in

SPEAKER_38: oregon and it turns out she was just ahead of the curve so i probably should ask what she's doing next

SPEAKER_53: because apparently everyone will do it in five years i previously lived in the tony outpost since

SPEAKER_00: i don't live there anymore i'll just say it of hillsborough next to san mateo which is like you know one of the higher zip codes in uh that area and in terms of the average home price and many people had chickens you couldn't have roosters though because they would wake up your neighbor

Chamath Palihapitiya: so you could have up to like six chickens or 12 chickens per acre or something there was some

SPEAKER_01: local ordinance but one of our neighbors who lives in a multi-million dollar house would have so many eggs yeah and these are people who obviously are millionaires they don't need to do this but they wanted to have organic eggs they would come by every month and just drop off eggs in our house

David Friedberg: and they were the most amazing organic beautiful eggs you know best neighbors ever that's a hack right they're pretty great neighbors yeah so yeah uh i think this is where we're going to be moving

Chamath Palihapitiya: and actually you know i hate to get all uh you know zuckerberg and uh go into my joe rogan era but

SPEAKER_01: i also wanted to learn how to butcher them as well in case you know there's some civil unrest or we have

SPEAKER_00: another covid god forbid or some kind of pandemic i would like to have a protein source off grid to be able to manage these kind of uh issues and so my daughters are not happy about that they said i

SPEAKER_13: can't kill the chickens that's where i draw the line uh not because i have an ethical well i mean i have ethical thoughts about meat consumption i'm a big meat eater so just that's where i stand but um i recall a day this is a little bit off topic i'll keep it short but my my child the best friend's

SPEAKER_107: dad had gone hunting and had shot a i think it was an elk if memory serves and they slaughtered it at home and i walked into their garage after they had done that and you know that was enough for me on

SPEAKER_13: on the butchery side i'm good i think the silence of the lambs have the lambs start crying it was it was brutally gross and i'm a little squeamish by nature about bones and tendons and stuff i like my wings boneless you know that's where i stand so there you go okay on the chicken coop front though i love the niche idea let's talk about what yc wants to fund because sadly chicken coops are not on there i wanted to bucket these for us that way i could break down jason you know like this topic that topic there was one topic and it was ai essentially so where yc's focused is that kind of three categories ai infrastructure ai applied and then uh hardware which i'll talk about at the end so very briefly for everybody a request for startup from yc used to come out once a year they've increased that cadence basically saying things are changing quickly as we've all seen with deep seek things can change overnight so no beef with me there makes sense what's on the list okay they would like to someone to build an ai app store with a focus on security so you can keep your data private just imagine instead of the app store that has candy crush and so forth on it an enormous number of ai specific apps that are consumer friendly that seems obvious to me questions

SPEAKER_24: about platforms we'll see i like it jason yeah an ai app store is an obvious idea and there were

SPEAKER_00: uh there was a version of this which was prompt engineering stores there were people two years ago we talked about it here on this podcast selling prompts of course that was a short-lived business

Chamath Palihapitiya: because now with reasoning in things like deep research and o1 and some of the new products by gemini and the products by chat gpt and open ai the reasoning's built in so if you don't know how to do a prompt you can just ask it to make a prompt or it makes a prompt as we saw when we use deep

SPEAKER_01: research on the program countless times so i do wonder if this is going to actually exist outside of gemini and other places because they would if it's going to exist it's going to exist in those places and there is one inside of chat gpt they called the plugins at some point yeah they made a store for

SPEAKER_14: that it was terrible no one used it and it kind of faded away i that was a rare aborted product launch from open ai people forgot about that actually just kind of disappeared sometimes it

Chamath Palihapitiya: takes two or three swings at the bat so you know that was using like integrations into kayak let's say or you know into redfin or other you know zillow and it was kind of kludgy that as i predicted would be built into gemini when you do gemini now and you ask it about a flight it gives you a google flights data inside of it so it's pretty obvious google's going to win a lot of those and it'll probably the ai app store will probably be the app store yeah so you know if you open google play it'll probably be like the ai agents will just live there just like games or ringtones and some of those other remember there was a ringtone section in um you know the app stores for a while because they were trying to make that into a thing where you could oh that was there was a moment in music business when

SPEAKER_113: ringtones were a serious percentage of total music revenue people forget if you're young you weren't

SPEAKER_13: there for it but people used to have clips from their favorite songs play and that was considered

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SPEAKER_53: it was kind of fun like i put the imperial march on my first iphone and i use a star trek to this day

SPEAKER_01: when i get messages it's a star trek um what is it communicator called on star trek uh not not a phaser

SPEAKER_16: um it does like that you know kind of anyway that was you know my phone ring used to be the imperial

SPEAKER_01: march um which got quite annoying forever around me so that's where i think that will live and then these clients and ai audit tools those are already happening so yeah compliance and audit whether

Chamath Palihapitiya: it's kpmg or whatever service it is those audits cost a lot of money and i think they want to replace people i think that these are going to be better suited like tax gpt is doing or some of the legal services there's the one legal um ai company that sequoia just did a big round in harvey the guide on the side is going to be what's happening you're not going to take the legal doc the legal certification or the cpa out of the loop with these compliance tools they're going to do the first pass that it and then there's going to be human in the loop so but probably fewer cpas required to review

SPEAKER_13: work than to do it all de novo so it's probably going to be a compression back to our static team size becoming compressed team size yep um another place where the yc folks are looking is building ais to replace personal staff they point out that wealthy people have had access to private doctors and private coaches and all sorts of things they think that's going to become ai-ified and more generally available i think maybe we'll see i'm a little mean example of what they mean by that you're talking about like your personal trainer or your personal assistant doctor yeah so basically if you're wealthy enough to hire a human to do a task for you on a regular basis either to help you do something better or to do something for you they expect ai maybe ai plus robots jason back to your optimist point uh will fill that niche and i i agree with this in time but i i don't know if we have the technology yet

SPEAKER_11: to replace frankly the human connection that i enjoy in those roles i i like the human element in

SPEAKER_53: someone knowing me who isn't a computer these things already exist as personal coaching uh in

Chamath Palihapitiya: apps so nutrisense a company we're invested in uh has a nutritionist that you can include in your subscription when you're looking at your glucose monitor to kind of coach you through things we have another startup blaze that was using ai to help people with coaching for like i don't know race car driving and they had human in the loop fitbod another investment artist used machine learning to look at your last work and make you a new workout so this kind of concept has always existed and you can just take whatever rich people pay for i did a tweet about this just a week or two ago that went viral a rich person uh paying for a high-end product will eventually make its way down and it will be everybody's personal driver and that's what ubers you know you everybody gets a chauffeur kind of a situation yes door dash everybody gets a personal chef airbnb everybody gets a second vacation home you can just take things that rich people experience today which might be a masseuse which might be a personal trainer and then you can abstract it use technology use ai to make it more available

SPEAKER_01: and that's really what fitbit is doing uh a fitbod rather so if you go to fitbod uh i think it's fitbod.me is their url it just starts for fitbod you know a personal trainer knowing what you did and then knowing what equipment you have and then making you a new workout that is you know a hundred bucks or 200 bucks if you live in a city uh if you go to a person every week and now you can do that for fifty nine dollars a year so it already exists i think it's a it's a fine premise or a fine

SPEAKER_107: framework to think of startup ideas for sure the way that i would maybe just down then is use ai

SPEAKER_13: and the deflationary price movement of technology products to take things that are currently too expensive and make them more mass mass available so it's essentially the same story we've seen with technology just in an ai context okay i mean again that's cool but we've also done it in a mobile context before in a cloud context so this is the next kind of platform iteration a couple other quick things before we let everyone go dev tools for ai agents i thought was a pretty cool idea essentially how do you help people uh build more agents quickly and and better i think everyone wants an ai agent that does stuff for them i don't think many people have them so i like that and then the other one that stuck out to me was software to support open source ai usage so who's going to build the companies that will support other people using open source software uh we had weviate on the show just 100 company vector search open source with services on top great model venture applicable and so i think we're going to see a lot of um a lot of good work there and then hardware jason just really quickly there talked about startups to accelerate data center build out i liked that i liked that they didn't back away from the idea that we need still mass investment in hardware because for like 48 hours there i feel like everyone was like oh deep seek solved the hardware problem that wasn't true no it

Chamath Palihapitiya: wasn't um as i tell everybody do not trust any data or information or the government of china it is a dictatorship they you know uh lie they steal ip it's just you can't trust any report out of china uh at face value whether it's like alibaba's earnings i wouldn't trust it or it's a claim about uh you know tick tock do not trust anything at face value and this idea that they spent six million dollars probably leaves out hundreds of thousands of illegally imported h100s

SPEAKER_01: via singapore that they're not putting into that cost and then you compare it to the cost that maybe open ai and sam altman quotes well sam altman is going to pump up the fully baked cost of doing a model why he wants to scare people from creating competitive models right so he's trying and he said don't even try to out uh hustle us you know in building these models you will not be able to compete because we have so much hardware so he's trying to freeze the market therefore he will say it's a hundred million to create chat gpt3 it's a billion to create chat gpt4 it's going to be 10 billion he's pumping the number up so you can't believe him on that side because he's going to overestimate it and then coming out of china they're going to say well it was six million well six million maybe

SPEAKER_76: to run it in terms of the electricity and if you divided the cost of the h100s that are illegally in china through singapore allegedly by you know a 20-year lifespan per hour you know you get the idea

SPEAKER_14: you can you do fun with numbers and so can i just say though that i feel like everyone i feel like

SPEAKER_13: they're getting hit for something that they didn't do so what i have here is the the um deep seek v3 white paper and they say that the training costs of deep seek v3 assuming the rental price of this gpu at that cost per hour per gpu pre-context post total like they tried to provide a reasonable accounting here and then i think what everyone did was they conflated um this which is for v3 which is not r1 r1 was a a a improvement on that with other additional features to make it better for reasoning but i think everyone went oh r1 cost 6 million they're liars hey yeah let's let's it's just not apples to apples comparison and so you know you have one that's what matters yeah and you

Chamath Palihapitiya: have one group saying okay well we spent a billion dollars on h1s and we use those h1s to make this llm therefore it's a billion dollars and you know you can just have all kinds of fun with numbers depending on how you depreciate the asset or the utilization of the asset you know and one dollar an hour to rent something could be a thousand dollars an hour depending on how you frame it

David Friedberg: and the devil's in the details yeah can i say a headline though jason about china point because

SPEAKER_13: i don't mean to argue against your point that china's uh gdp numbers are a little bit sketchy but i love this uh from the atlantic council china's economic performance new numbers same overstatement so sure hard agree with with everything about not trusting biased sources and when it comes to investors and people like sam allman they are talking their book and i always read it with that

Chamath Palihapitiya: context but a good reminder to everyone out there too and i think that's probably a good segue into this uh peak valuation i had said you know i thought we were hitting peak nvidia you know sometime in the next couple of years you would have this sort of peak nvidia moment in terms of competition is coming people are going to make their own chips and then software will become more efficient as we saw with r1 using maybe more commoditized hardware less generation of hardware better software better techniques etc because constraint makes for great art if you give somebody one sheet of paper and say write a great song they're going to be very thoughtful if you give them a laptop with unlimited storage you know the song may never arrive and so sometimes you need you know a little constraint right like where you're not going to get your paycheck unless you submit this song i always tell the story about bob dylan blood on the track so putting all that aside i also thought we were hitting uh evaluation for open ai yeah because there seems to be so much headwinds against them

SPEAKER_01: however masayoshi-san who loves to uh counter any kind of reasonable valuation is reportedly looking

SPEAKER_00: at putting 25 billion into open ai at a 300 billion dollar free money yeah i i think it might be post

SPEAKER_13: the 300 billion dollar number is very fuzzy this is all from the wall street journals reporting but i mean just keep in mind that they were worth 157 billion before and that's what jason said was maybe

SPEAKER_23: peak so this is effectively a doubling and that's such a masa move to just be like well double it add

SPEAKER_11: a zero and you love him for it i don't know if i will want to put my own money into open ai 300

SPEAKER_13: billion dollars but i do want to make a comparison here because i think we lose a little bit chunk of comparative scale so the other day deep sea comes out nvidia loses what was it 17 of its valuation one hundred billion dollars largest six hundred billion dollars exactly at the top of the market cap off the top of the market cap so do you think that open ai is only worth half of what nvidia shed

Chamath Palihapitiya: in one day that's i mean it's all yeah i i think you have to make two bets here one is what's the actual traction in business of open ai is it the consumer business of people buying chat gpt for 20 bucks a month um and you know how much of the revenue is that or is it the api people hitting the api and paying them for requests and they're in competition with aws and microsoft azure which has all the

SPEAKER_01: weights and put up r1 as a way to maybe uh even more than flick um you know uh sam waltman's ear but maybe put him in his place and say like listen we're agnostic if people want to use r1 which is based on allegedly stolen training from open ai we're going to actually support that think of like let's just pause there for a second of how cutthroat satya nadella is sam waltman has claimed and open ai has claimed that r1 was stolen from open ai and that they're you know have these reports of people you know hitting their api and doing this sort of learning and reinforcement learning etc and training

SPEAKER_76: it on open ai and it's stolen yada yada they stole our ip they stole our ip and what does microsoft do the next day yes they support it on azure and they're like here go ahead and it's

SPEAKER_72: and it's cheaper than anything open ai offers well you know what microsoft has become over the

SPEAKER_13: years an oddly strong supporter of open source and people forget this transition people are often still stuck in that 90s mindset of like you know microsoft 1.0 but microsoft's been messing with open source for a minute now and they don't care if you want to run r1 or an open ai model on

SPEAKER_14: azure pretty much as long as you're doing it on their compute if you're doing it on their compute

Chamath Palihapitiya: and you have their credit card so and then the third piece is what would the valuation be um based so you have the valuation based on it being a google competitor right you ask questions you get an answer will people pay 20 bucks a month for that sustained over time or is there an advertising model that merges then there's the second piece the api going up against azure and google cloud and aws and oracle and everybody else and then the third piece is something else artificial general intelligence something else emerges that is worth 300 billion so if you were to put these in buckets we do have some reports on their previous revenue for each of those product lines yeah so we

SPEAKER_13: know that they were supposed to have reached 3.7 billion dollars in 2024 which is to be clear an enormous revenue amount and a real accomplishment and not to be diminished the breakdown that i've consistently seen is that open ai makes most of its money from subscriptions the 20 bucks a month that i pay the corporate account that launch has etc whereas anthropic which is smaller and is probably closer to the billion dollar run rate mark has a lot more business on the api side those api calls from corporate customers now i don't think that either of these starting points means that they won't converge at some point in time but i think that this is the clutch here for for open ai because if they get project started off the ground if they raise more money from softbank they will have had every single possible advantage that they could want right so they are supposed to go from 3.7 billion revenue last year to 11 or 12 this year according to some reporting about internal projections and so forth if they get to 12 billion dollars this year everyone will shut up yeah if

Chamath Palihapitiya: they don't we'll see yeah and and these prices keep coming down so my understanding is with r1 coming out open ai is also going to lower you know the token cost and everything like that so what we're going to experience over the next couple of years is i mean the cost of running jobs on ai is just depreciating like is it 10x a year 5x a year we're going to need another moore's law for how much it costs to do a job you know uh and there's some unit of a query and how difficult it is to do that query because now if you can start running these things locally on a couple of macbook you know macbooks or m1s you know where are people going to actually send their jobs and then it becomes about fidelity and i actually think you know ai queries we these might become so commoditized that we look at them

SPEAKER_128: as good of a business as storage and uh bandwidth which is another way to say a commodity business i think this is becoming modified so fast yes that anybody who wants to create a robot self-driving a sas app a mobile app you know uh pick your you know verticalized agent they're gonna be able to create it so cheap that it all becomes commoditized what happens to self-driving as a concept if there's so much ai there's so much training data out there and it's so cheap that i don't know any car manufacturer can just say fire up this open source ai fire up you know uh all of this training data and we're back in the game and everybody has self-driving that's you know 99.59 at the same time then it becomes just

SPEAKER_76: a manufacturing issue who can manufacture the most cars and run the the most that scale network yes

SPEAKER_107: but that's why i think it's smart that waymo and tesla and we ride are trying to do quick commercial

SPEAKER_13: applications of self-driving because if it does end up just being i can get a ford a gm or whatever they're all the same then no one really has leverage but if i don't buy one because i've already been captured by waymo or tesla or someone else who just wants to sell me a robotaxi by the minute by the hour by the day by the ride that's a completely different model so it's a race in that

SPEAKER_32: way yeah to the point of commoditization of a model now uh about the ai curve i'm going to show

SPEAKER_13: a uh post from uh dario uh modi the uh the guy uh who runs anthropic and he did a blog post about uh deep seek v3 and the training costs and he said that if the historical trend of the cost curve decrease is 4x per year okay then we would expect a model that's three to four uh x cheaper than 3.5 sonnet one of their models about now he argues throughout this that essentially the lower cost for training deep seek v3 is in keeping with the cost curves we're seeing today the crazy thing is if this persists for another 18 months at the current rate it will change the world forever by bringing such high level models to the market at such low cost that's why i kind of get excited whenever

SPEAKER_11: open ai drop something and they're like it's really expensive you please don't use it too much like oh three is supposed to come out today yeah i guarantee you oh three is going to be expensive

SPEAKER_33: as hell today but in six months it's going to be three three pennies a call from three different

SPEAKER_28: companies i mean it's uh it's a i think open source is going to win the day and there's a great irony here i talked about it on all in which will come out uh today as well over this weekend it's kind of

Chamath Palihapitiya: rich that open ai stole everybody's content got caught with their hand in the cookie jar you know and then they're complaining and then they flip to a closed source flip to a for-profit so they do all these things that i would consider unethical uh or highly unethical stealing other people's content without permission uh flipping from a non-profit to a for-profit then they're crying foul when somebody does their original mission which was to open source and it just happens to be the chinese doing it

SPEAKER_76: and they they have stolen uh some content apparently or they have you know they don't have the same content regulations there they don't care about ip over there they just steal it as quick as possible and that's their philosophy of it and now opening eyes crying foul i think open source wins sorry that's just my belief i think open source is going to win this and if i did raise 30 billion and i was sam you know what i would buy i'd buy quora i'd buy reddit i'd buy twitter i'd buy the new york times i'd buy the washington post i'd buy the disney corporation this is where actually the value might reside and

SPEAKER_128: especially if the new york times wins its lawsuit if the new york times wins its lawsuit and then disney joins the new york times uh washington post uh reddit quora just pick anybody who is at scale data

SPEAKER_76: and they all start creating a voting block and they just go to every single llm and say if our date is in there we're going to just hammer you with lawsuits until you say uncle and when that happens

Chamath Palihapitiya: that would be the equivalent of if the content industry had been as coordinated the news industry the magazine business as the music industry was with napster with google can you imagine if google couldn't index new york times pages or all content cnet back in the day all that stuff that was in there if they had just said yeah no you can't index us and as a group we will not let you index our content unless you pay us a license google would have had no choice and google would be giving 70 of their advertising to the content creators or some number of them just like the music industry does with spotify spotify has to give what 60 70 80 percent of every dollar 65 i think is their current kind of

SPEAKER_11: gross margin rate yeah yeah so they have to just even 10 10 of google's of google search revenue that

SPEAKER_180: went to content approach dude i would be like rolling up in a bentley today like like i mean

SPEAKER_23: like that would be so much money for me do you know how many millions of words i have published

SPEAKER_11: over the course of my career that has just been taken i i don't feel bad for open ai i also agree that open source is probably going to win one thing i don't know and i need to look into this more

SPEAKER_13: is what is the possible uh copyright exposure of meta with llama and their open source models because i don't think that just having something to be quasi open source obviates the copyright risk of using copyright information in your training so i'm curious if we're using open ai as the example here but even if a lot of the open source ai groups are going to have the same problem they will have

Chamath Palihapitiya: similar issues and they will get injunctions against them and it'll be a little bit more kludgy like who do you sue and who do you get an injunction against but there's nothing that says like some open source community couldn't get a legal letter saying hey you use star wars and created an open source star wars you know model creator and you're making star wars ip we're going to get injunction and make github or gitlab or any number of places that post it or fork it and we're just going to send legal letters to them and and shut it down and put it in the underground which is what happened with victorrent right or other services those things just became underground services they still exist they just don't exist um in a mass way because the legal options are so much better and fluid and

David Friedberg: affordable and just more ethical i think people like to be ethical they won't be if they're getting ripped off but i pay for three music services i pay for spotify yeah i pay for apple music as part of my

Chamath Palihapitiya: bundle and then because i got into high fidelity i started doing cobus quboz i think it is which is this french high fidelity thing and so i am paying unnecessarily i guess for spotify uh because i have apple music in the family but my family prefers the interface but apple music comes for free and then actually with my youtube subscription my premium i get youtube music so you have four and also you

SPEAKER_13: have some access via prime so oh yeah maybe my prime has free music too i think there's some music attached to prime as well so that means jason you are literally the most important music fan in the world thank you for supporting the arts i do this in a slightly different fashion i buy um vinyls and tapes and cds from bands that i love when they have uh records come out and i i have a tape of fit for an autopsy's latest lp uh the nothing that is i don't have a tape player but it was small and it was

SPEAKER_183: like 10 bucks and i'm like i love you guys here's you know so i think it's cool to do that i love uh you

SPEAKER_186: know people doing that and you'll see there's two vinyls somebody gave me a gift uh behind me those are

SPEAKER_76: two uh dire straits of the original dire straits albums that somebody just handed me at a conference someone knows what you like yeah and just put it on the shelf they'll never get plays they'll just

SPEAKER_188: be on the shelf forever but i like it once my front living room stops being a uh a in-house daycare

SPEAKER_13: for my girls i can put my record player back in there and that'd be great all right closing off the open ai story a couple of notes about this open ai did participate in the last 6.6 billion funding round for open ai so softbank already has about 500 million dollars into the company that way it also did later last year a 1.5 billion dollar tinder offer so they already own about 2 billion dollars worth of buy-in in equity in open ai so if they do another 15 to 25 billion and then

Chamath Palihapitiya: what happens with the conversion you know like you they keep pinning these valuations to open ai open ai it keeps hitting these record revenue numbers so how does the non-profit collect on that what happens to this like 10x or a thousand x yeah then we turn to open source i mean the the layers of rules that have to occur and then layering this amount of money on top of it what happens if they legally can't flip what happens to all that money does it get returned to investors i mean i would love to understand the legal um risk that thrive capital is taking uh christianer over there josh

SPEAKER_128: kushner or masayoshi-san like they're putting lp money into this potential uh house of cards and if they can't flip into a for-profit do they just get their money back but what if the money's spent

SPEAKER_01: like this is a large amount of risk to take for tens of billions of dollars or any billions of dollars absolutely so i don't know man i just this seems like pretty frisky to me oh it it is uh it's we're

SPEAKER_193: talking about softbank jason the mobile pizza company and the dog walking company they don't care and that's what i like about it because everyone else is trying to like do what we do you know

SPEAKER_13: what's the revenue multiple masa goes i like sand do you want 25 billion dollars okay but um for fun i'm gonna read this lead from the journal because it's just it's too funny for words reading for everyone from the wall street journal in his newly built palace near tokyo lined by stone statues of roman emperors and surrounded by an 18-hole golf course masayoshi-san was stewing after declaring for years the imminent arrival of the artificial intelligence revolution the chief executive of softbank had missed out on it quote i haven't been able to do anything he thought according to a speech he gave to softbank investors last year can i just get old like this and die

SPEAKER_28: i love this guy he's awesome i mean greatest investor in the history of investors i mean and the worst well i mean you just take the swings you know like if it takes a certain amount of um

Chamath Palihapitiya: hootspa cojones to be able to make giant swings like this and not care um about past failures or zeros and then just keep momentum investing this is like the ultimate momentum investing and

SPEAKER_01: it's um it's great that it exists in the world to a certain extent um whether i would want to participate in it as an lp i don't know i mean i i've chosen not to i do a different type of investing

SPEAKER_28: but hey more power to him i think we have some good questions from the audience uh that we could

SPEAKER_107: potentially hit i saw somebody was yeah let's let's drop one so here we are from ccc if stargate goes through isn't a big chunk of that budget for hardware and would this be a bullish sign

SPEAKER_13: for companies like grok and nvidia grok is a company that does ai inference hardware sure used to offer it as a kind of a purchasing now offer kind of via cloud service and nvidia of course makes all the chips just to be clear ccc i i think jason and i are still pretty bullish on the hardware component of ai and worrying about open airs valuation i don't think undercuts the overall story of the need for a lot of spend on hardware chips and networking equipment we're just concerned that maybe this one company with this one model and this one historical corporate structure might

David Friedberg: be having a valuation attached to it that will be difficult to earn into but jason your thoughts

SPEAKER_76: you know sometimes we overbuild capacity for certain things and sometimes we underbuild it we've

Chamath Palihapitiya: underbuilt electrical capacity in the united states and at a point in time we overbuilt fiber and we overbuilt storage and then you know creative entrepreneurs look at the plummeting cost of both of those and created youtube and then youtube was like you know what uh you could upload unlimited and there were used to be caps you could i think maybe youtube it was like you could upload a five or ten minute video yeah and then they went to an hour and then you know google photos or gmail started at whatever gig and then it went to terabytes and then it went to unlimited essentially so you can create products and services that are based upon over building and so one person might overbuild capacity and

SPEAKER_128: then another person might find a use for it and we saw this happen in the big data revolution we it was

SPEAKER_76: too expensive to store uh storage logs so i remember when we were doing email newsletters in the 90s brian alvi had set up these qmail servers for us and we had all the delivery stats and i loved looking

SPEAKER_128: at the delivery stats but he said listen you know we have to put another hard drive in we got to put another uh you know disk array in and i was like yeah but what do we do and there was like oh there's a piece of software to roll all this up and then give us the top level reports so then we started saving the top level reports of opens and closes and i was like man it would be really good to have this granularly to see which people open the email every day which ones open it every other day but we had to literally have discussions about how many of the logs we wanted to store yeah and the same thing with page views on and gadget and we basically at a certain point said don't just delete the logs and keep the top level of reports and we paid for some software to just keep pdfs on a another hard drive because it was getting too expensive somewhere along that journey cloud computing came out and we didn't have to rack servers anymore then it became a discussion of what's our storage bill the same thing

Chamath Palihapitiya: happened with this very podcast we were spending 10 000 a month storing these like giant files and then we realized you know what we'll just put the final edit on youtube it's in 4k it's in hd we always have it it's always stored there we have a backup on you know this other storage system and then libsynth and other people started making it free or close to free or unlimited so that's what we'll see with this overbuilt if it's overbuilt people are going to do ridiculous seemingly ridiculous things with that extra capacity some of them will be amazing some of them will be superfluous and and silly and

SPEAKER_204: uh you know people can afford it so i'm not too worried about it to be totally honest and i don't

SPEAKER_00: think i am worried about is the government paying for this we're in this whole thing of trying to control our spend and i saw some headline go by that maybe sam altman and these guys were trying to

SPEAKER_76: get money from trump to do the build out of these servers absolutely not if there's people like masayoshi son out there or you know sovereign wealth funds or venture capitalists they should be paying for the build out of this not the american public hard no on that enough with the public paying for everything i don't want to see sam altman or anybody else going with their hat out asking trump to give him a hundred billion dollars for us to win the ai race when it should be won by open source wow lot

SPEAKER_107: lot to unpack in there um i'll i'll say that i as far as i i've i've read there is no public money in

SPEAKER_13: project stargate confirmed i know that he probably wanted some but i don't think he's gonna get it and i think your point about soft bank is correct but the last thing i'll say on this is you know satya over microsoft has said that we're building out this capacity because there's so much demand for ai inference which is using kind of models out in the wild and anthropica said that they are compute constrained and part of the open ai microsoft beef has been open ai has wanted more compute than microsoft was willing to give them so to me there is the chance that we are going to

SPEAKER_209: overbuild jason's point and if we do there'll be some positive benefits of that as well yeah i'm

Chamath Palihapitiya: just not worried about overbuilding right now if if we were this is the job of capital allocators there are capital allocators out there who have choices of where to put their money they can put it into municipal bonds they can put it into treasuries or they could put it into core weave or project

SPEAKER_214: stargate uh yeah but back to stolen ip that's like a protected series this is a really good series and a really good movie like how do you just go out with the audacity and steal the term stargate i

SPEAKER_215: wonder if they paid jason they stole the internet and then they chewed it and then they're spitting

SPEAKER_214: it back to us for a dollar i mean so who cares yeah who cares if they steal somebody's ip for their movie cares if sam no i mean literally that is a beloved science fiction series and they just i mean

SPEAKER_220: why don't they just call it star wars just steal that star trek wars start track yeah i want to hit

SPEAKER_13: a couple of things though before we move towards it first of all we have talked about antitrust on this show ad nauseum because it's a big deal for adventure for startups uh the news is that over at the doj okay after trump took over there has been a suit from the doj to essentially block the hpe fuel bracket enterprise and juniper deal and here is the logic from the doj we've excerpted this i'll read it for folks who are on the audio part the proposed transaction between hpe and juniper if allowed to proceed would further consolidate an already highly concentrated market and leave us enterprises facing uh two companies committing over 70 of the market the post merger hpe and market leader cisco systems international this substantial lessening of competition in a critically important technology market poses the precise threat that the clayton act was enacted to prevent jason this strikes me as an incredibly reasonable argument against a combination inside of industry however it's also a technology deal worth billions of dollars market feedback was surprise at the trump administration's move here this is not startups this is big companies this is public companies

SPEAKER_14: does this make you worry about the trump administration's posture towards technology combinations i'm just curious this has to be a multi-year investigation so while trump's been office for

Chamath Palihapitiya: 10 days i guess 11 this is obviously probably been in the works for at least four years uh for whenever this deal was struck that they started looking at it so i don't know when they started this investigation so while trump has inherited it i think looking at router technology uh you know which is what these folks are in um dell has these obviously huawei which is banned in the united states and countless other people build these these are commodities you know routers sending data and packets is a commodity business and it is a race to the bottom yeah you can go on uh i i talk about this

SPEAKER_00: unify that i love uh i'll give them a free plug here this is like an upstart unify is this incredible

SPEAKER_128: it company for that i'm in love with and if you go look at what they build and you just go to the pricing section for these routers and you just click on like the dream machine here so if you go to like uh switching and you just prick any of their switches uh professional professional max enterprise these things are unbelievably cheap and they're using the same ones in homes as they're using in enterprises and then you go over to like camera security click the next tab over camera security then click the next tab over door access and you look at all these integrations that they have void the next one over they have taken the entire stack from cisco and commoditized it and if you go anywhere and you see unify routers these routers for wi-fi cost a hundred bucks a thousand bucks the switches cost 500 bucks the cost of these things is essentially free compared to when i started

Chamath Palihapitiya: in the industry yes the equivalent of these were you know when you were putting them in you would basically say we're going to put you know four thousand dollars for each pc on people's desk to set it up and then we're going to spend two or three thousand dollars to set up the network for each person then we spend two or three thousand dollars for you know each person's share of the server capacity and you would build server so you'd be looking at an enterprise you had a thousand people in your company let's say you were where i work sony music is a thousand people sure you would say ten thousand dollars per person every four years we'll spend ten million dollars on it to put in this infrastructure now the same pc is 500 bucks the same router per person is a hundred or two hundred dollars per person and then you know it's all done with wi-fi you can do cables whatever it's all been commoditized so this is the kind of case that makes no sense it's a commodity business it doesn't matter if it consolidates down to two or three players because anybody can undercut it and even

SPEAKER_128: when you look at the unify stuff when you go to ui.com they're not sponsors or anything here they're looking for things to do they have ev charging they added right they're doing digital signage they're looking for things they added premium audio to their offering so when you go to integrations they've now added essentially a sonos competitor inside their uh product now why would you have that well some number of people who use these networks want to have music in their offices or their cafes or whatever so the long tail of these things then you go on to amazon and you look at um netgear like the real cheap consumer stuff then under net gear there are commodity ones that look exactly like net gear probably made in the same factory that have some you know bozo logo on it you've never heard of so there is nothing to worry about here this is just overreach consumers have won this already and enterprises have won it it's silly that we're even having this discussion in the review mirror because this was settled 10 20 years ago yeah so all of that was kind of what i was thinking but

SPEAKER_13: here's the here's the part that surprised me and here's why i brought it up because this is not just a biden era doj hangover um over in crn uh there was a quote that says from someone who is party to this overall transaction my first thought was this must be a holdover from the outgoing doj leadership so i was shocked this assistant attorney general was appointed just recently by the new administration so this is actually a potential data point that the trump administration even though you and i may disagree with them on this case yeah might have more antitrust teeth than people

SPEAKER_14: thought and if that's the case there will be some sad faces out there but i don't think 14 billion

SPEAKER_231: dollars right is that what this acquisition is going to be for juniper is nothing like what are we doing here oh god i'm not going to use the r word but this is our word silly this is silly thank you

SPEAKER_14: thank you we can say we can say silly it's silly shockingly enough hpe and juniper are both very mad

SPEAKER_13: about this um and just really quick before we go i want to show the chart we mentioned earlier about uh nvidia's revenue via singapore how other companies might be getting these chips this is a chart jason that shows okay well i think i think you'll just understand this from the get-go but um if you track reported revenue from nvidia who sells ships to singapore a country that you are allowed to send ships to their revenue from singapore went from 1 billion dollars in the second quarter of 2023 calendar to about 7.7 billion dollars in the most recently reported quarter where do you think those ships are going jason given that singapore is such an enormous place yeah i mean uh the population

Chamath Palihapitiya: of singapore divided into this number would be really interesting to sort of see like how much you know just have fun with numbers uh i think singapore is a tiny country um in terms of population it's

SPEAKER_195: six million people so it's a thousand it's it's twelve hundred dollars per citizen of singapore

SPEAKER_107: into nvidia spend that if that was the us that would be uh 400 billion dollars anyway uh it's pretty

SPEAKER_135: obvious what's happening here uh nvidia knows what's happening our government knows what's happening

Chamath Palihapitiya: singapore knows what's happening these things are getting on a slow boat to china that's what's happening folks and so these export controls if we're going to be serious about them uh you know singapore and nvidia and the government are going to have to get on the same page here the perception i have about

SPEAKER_181: all this is this race is reminding me of nuclear proliferation which is there are nine countries that have nuclear weapons and you the only way to stop this is uh to control the hardware the metal the the materials yeah it's gonna be pretty hard to do obviously but we did it with nuclear proliferation russia france germany uk united states south korea china israel they deny it india and i guess pakistan uh has some rogue stuff north korea has some rogue stuff so iran has some programs so you're looking

SPEAKER_128: at like nine or so people confirmed and then you know a long tail of three or four people who are uh mucking about ukraine obviously gave them up when they um you know separated from the ussr in exchange for

SPEAKER_76: security a little footnote there don't ever give up your nukes yeah just news flash hold on hold on to

SPEAKER_184: them never give them up you it'll not work out well for you but i think that's what we're going to be

SPEAKER_128: looking at here potentially is you know just slowing stuff down but that's the most you're going to be able to do and it's going to create abundance for everybody on the planet so i think the hopeful version of this is like nuclear power we could have clean energy for everybody the downside is nuclear weapons with ai we could have robots getting your chickens from your chicken coop and making you eggs and having free food and having free products and services that go down to zero what is it going to cost to make a car when there are no humans in the factory what is it going to cost to take coal out of the earth if we even needed to or do any speaking of berries when robots and ai do this perfectly we're going to see the price of food energy and products and services continue to plummet you can buy a flat panel tv now for 200 bucks like a giant one 300 bucks like open up amazon look i was shocked

SPEAKER_250: at how cheap our most recent tv was i'm gonna just give people an idea of this you you pull up a 50 or 60

Chamath Palihapitiya: inch cheapest led on amazon prime right now and you sort it by price for a 50 inch or 60 inch you might be able to get a vizio for you know at walmart a vizio might cost you 200 bucks 300 bucks for a tv that

SPEAKER_132: 15 years ago was five thousand dollars but jason i literally this is just a blank search log out of

SPEAKER_107: amazon 60 inch television 60 inch absurd 60 inch the second one costs 300 the third 55 inch costs 234

SPEAKER_75: 240 i that's insane what does it cost to get it to your house like the shipping cost is free delivery

SPEAKER_253: tomorrow between eight and i mean what are we talking about here folks i mean just keep doing

SPEAKER_75: the math that 55 inch tv like i said 10 years ago would have been at a zero right 20 years ago at a

Chamath Palihapitiya: zero you'd be talking about at ces it was 3 000. so we've seen this happen with tvs you're seeing it happen with the m4 you you look at the price curve of the m4 mac mini this computer for 4.99 i believe is the entry price 5.99 is more powerful than anything else in the lineup right now uh without a monitor and that's mac that's like the high end you look at it in a a chromebook you can buy a chromebook for

David Friedberg: 99 bucks you can buy a chromebox for 99 bucks you can buy a stick pc for 50 bucks the cheapest um mac

SPEAKER_107: mini uh that runs the m4 non-pro is 600 you can spend up to for m4 pro you can spend up to 1400 but

SPEAKER_132: that's a sure 12 core cpu 16 core gpu 24 gigs of memory and a 512 gigabyte ssd that's for somebody

SPEAKER_14: doing rendering of like cgi you know like but like but like but think about like five years ago yeah you would have gotten half of that for twice as much and that's the cost curve we talked about

SPEAKER_13: from dario and anthropic and everyone else so this is why i remain optimistic the world has many things

SPEAKER_11: going on in it that i have feelings about but i do have pretty reasonable confidence in the fact that

SPEAKER_76: technology is gonna make our lives better i want to put one more thing on our um our docket to talk about for next week and for our nodi gang to maybe start talking about which is anti-capitalism

Chamath Palihapitiya: slash hacking capitalism themes i want to just sort of talk about this next week at some point there's a trend called no buy 2025 um and then there's apple selling less iphones uh a trend we've talked about here for a couple years and uh you know people skipping upgrading it yep this no buy 2025 combination of a reaction to inflation with fire uh you know financial independence retire early over working all this kind of stuff and this abundance that's coming is a very interesting trend i want to explore next week no buy 2025 very interesting i have lots of thoughts about this too i

SPEAKER_107: have an essay brewing on the different perspectives on what ai is going to do to prices employment

SPEAKER_13: consumer surplus and so forth so great we'll get to that i'm x.com alex he's x.com jason we are twist

SPEAKER_107: monday wednesday friday this week in startups.com slash docket twist 100.com you're handsome and lovely everybody goodbye there we go all right see you next time bye bye