SPEAKER_00: actually the funny story from the from art basil so i was hanging with with jay cal and we're

SPEAKER_02: talking to people yep and for some reason jay cal is being nice to me and he said to people he said do you know who this guy is this guy is a legend in silicon valley you know he introduces

SPEAKER_00: me yeah and then i said to jason i'm like you know this is people and he who just sold like two sixty million dollar like nfts i'm like this guy's a legend too and without missing a beat

SPEAKER_16: jay cal says well maybe for the next year hey everybody welcome to episode 58 of the all in podcast yes the podcast i don't know if you guys have been watching i'm drinking boys i'm drinking well it's uh friday we're filming late on a friday you can tell from the backyard uh behind chamath that it's the evening and he's cracked open a little something something a little little little

SPEAKER_23: delishy poops oh bond 2002 st eden hmm that's uh that's a label of bond correct yes sir bond st eden

SPEAKER_28: 2002. oh very nice uh thanks for the invite i'll be right over uh uh episode 58 last week episode 57

SPEAKER_16: peaked at number 40 episodes in the world so thank you to the fans uh we broke 125

SPEAKER_33: thousand subscribers on youtube and uh the pods over there are getting 150 000 views so thank just thank you to the fans a lot of questions about the all-in summit i went to see the locations when i was in miami we've got the location we want we're working on dates and you'll have more information soon about that uh so welcome back to the program with us today as always is the sultan of science the queen of quinoa himself david friedberg the rain man yeah he's definitely back from our basel

SPEAKER_16: of course he went to our basel and i don't know if he bought any art but i was on his boat with him uh or his rented boat david sacks and i were on a boat and rented boat well i mean he hasn't bought one yet but i think he's moving there and then of course the dictator himself chamali palihapitiya here

SPEAKER_35: chamali with an obnoxiously expensive sweater tell us about yes yes can i everybody wants to know

SPEAKER_39: what animal was killed to make that what animal was killed for that horrible ernie sweater this

SPEAKER_42: this is a collection oh god of the foreskins of some white i'm out i'm out i'm out i mean it is

SPEAKER_48: incredibly soft and smooth i literally got a complaint like like foreskins are oh god i'm just really going in a bad direction right i literally got a complaint freebrick and sacks are like what

SPEAKER_51: are they talking about i literally got a complaint on dm about chamat's conspicuous consumption

SPEAKER_33: of his sweaters and they and she was like listen i don't mean to tell you your business but i think

SPEAKER_56: chamath is turning off the audience with these letters was it an angry mid-level white

SPEAKER_61: it wasn't white but a very extremely successful one i'll leave it at that anyway uh really really

SPEAKER_70: they were just concerned every week really really we have to go through chamat's sweater does she pay does she pay attention when i put in 700 million dollars a year into climate change how

SPEAKER_74: has she put in that much uh with her shitty sweaters uh okay listen enough give him some more wine

SPEAKER_79: just checking if we're gonna if we're gonna start moral virtue signaling over here all right well this we got a lot to cover i mean this is just absolutely crazy finish a glass of wine real

SPEAKER_81: quick and then roll into the show this is this is going i mean this show is going to go off the rails

SPEAKER_16: i've already lost control of the show uh all right we got to start with inflation and the economy uh while sax and i were in uh miami for our basal there was an absolute uh panic going on

SPEAKER_33: two three in the morning people checking their robin hood and coinbase accounts to figure out how

SPEAKER_53: much they had lost in their crypto holdings but today i lost more in the robin hood stock than i

SPEAKER_85: have in the robin hood app that's too soon bro that's too soon for me i'm about to distribute

SPEAKER_87: i'm like do i distribute now or wait that thing that thing has been a stone sinking to the floor of

SPEAKER_90: the ocean well i mean it's pretty crazy found no i mean listen 17 18 billion dollars a pretty great

SPEAKER_82: valuation uh right now i think it's an opportunity for people but i'll leave it at that let's talk about

SPEAKER_95: inflation inflation but we're not dispensing stock advice we're not stock advice but i'm not selling

SPEAKER_97: any of my shares i'm telling you right now before i distribute my stock and mark my capital gains

SPEAKER_100: i'd like to advocate to be like robin i'm gonna just ask you don't show up drunk for the next episode

David Friedberg: oh my lord i can't even get through the first story here okay inflation by the way does this woman

SPEAKER_108: even own a casual sweater that she can get off of who is this person oh please beep that god almighty

David Sacks: all right what a loser stop i'm glad to hear you're doing something with all those foreskins because

SPEAKER_112: we don't want them to go to waste what do they do with the foreskins all those circumcisions i would

SPEAKER_113: love for you to just drive here and touch this sweater i mean i i can't i'm like this is something to

SPEAKER_116: do on a friday night um all right inflation numbers this is important folks uh inflation

SPEAKER_118: year over year uh sorry but excuse me but if you're if you're spending your time working in biotech working in crypto and fighting climate change it's wrong to buy a cashmere sweater like all of a sudden like wrong you also have to look like a homeless fucking you know lumberjack is that the goal

SPEAKER_122: we have to start the show because being ugly is so cool now the idea was do we have to start the show with your fashion choices you started with that statement by this person who better be good looking or well-dressed but otherwise they have no right to make this claim all right calm down chamoff

SPEAKER_123: let's get to the show you insulted a sweater game that's definitely now we know it is most sensitive

Chamath Palihapitiya: honestly you might as well have called me a oh dude you might as well dude stop it's just a sweater

SPEAKER_115: comment and it's just conspicuous consumption is that is that what she's really trying to say

David Friedberg: no because you brought it up who is it out her i'm not okay let's cancel her we're not gonna nobody's

SPEAKER_107: getting canceled for pointing out that you're talking about four thousand dollar chinchilla sweaters i've never

SPEAKER_122: said how much they cost we beeped it out i've never said how much this right do you want a sweater worth

SPEAKER_138: more than four thousand dollars of course i do i rest my case i own many but that's not the point

SPEAKER_107: guilty on all charges because it's ambiguous consumption uh cpi the past three months today

SPEAKER_33: was 6.8 year over year it's the largest increase since 1982 we're getting back to the post jimmy carter era uh and when reagan got in there inherited that mess september was 5.4 october 6.2 november 6.8 points up 0.6 or approximately 10 over october 1.4 over september and um here's the chart uh for those of you watching uh on the youtube channel this all started in march of 2021 that was the first month with the cpi rose over two percent and who was wrong on inflation well the fed chairman jerome powell called it transitory numerous times over the past two years treasury secretary janet gallon uh in her senate confirmation hearing in december of 2020 yellen said she believed the fed and binding admin could take advantage of interest rates being near zero and spend more on stimulus economist paul krugman thought it was transitory in his op-ed how not to panic about inflation that did not age well quote are businesses actually starting to set prices and wages based on the expectation of high future inflation if they aren't and my bet is they won't be then the lesson of 2010 to 2011 will remain

SPEAKER_144: don't panic my god he could not have been more wrong who was right on inflation jamie diamond in

SPEAKER_16: march i would suspect there is a pretty good chance you're going to see rates going up and people

SPEAKER_33: are starting to worry about that the american public specifically gen z has been on top of this issue uh 77 percent of americans were either somewhere or somewhat were very concerned about inflation back in march and gen z uh people aged 18 to 24 had the highest rate of very concerned about inflation at 52 larry summers also got this right sax what are your thoughts on inflation which now seems acute and

SPEAKER_00: permanent right well it's definitely not transitory remember when it was at about 5.1 percent over the summer that the administration said no big deal this is transitory don't panic then it went to 6.2 now it's 6.8 looks like it's headed to seven percent and the real problem here is that these guys the administration have not adjusted course in light of this data what they've tried to do instead is now speciously claim that the same bills that they had written and conceived the build back better bill somehow even though it was conceived at a time uh that was really deflationary that somehow this is going to fight inflation they're essentially repurposing they're just changing the arguments they're using as opposed to changing their their legislative priorities and just today we got a report from cbo saying that this build back better bill wasn't going to cost two trillion like the administration said it's going to cost five trillion and add three trillion to the deficit over 10 years correct over 10 years if those programs are not sunsetted so there's a bunch of budgetary gimmicks that were put in the bill basically a lot of the programs would sunset after one year or three year or six years and so that's the only way they've gotten it to this you know 1.9 trillion dollar price tag the reason why that's a gimmick is because once the programs are created there's going to be it will create a special interest or constituency who is not dependent on those programs and no one's ever going to want to cut them milton friedman's milton friedman famously said that there's nothing quite so permanent as a temporary government program so that is the game that progressives are playing is they're going to create the dependent the dependency the constituency who once they receive the program is never going to want to give it up and they're counting on the fact that these programs will not sunset which means they will cost five trillion and it will add three trillion to the to the debt um to the deficit so you know the problem is it'd be one thing if we were in a deflationary environment if the economy was in the tank but these guys are continuing to pump more and more stimulus into an economy that has enough and really larry summers made this point all the way back in february i think this is worth reading what he said he said there's a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to world war ii levels than normal recession levels were set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation he said this in february everyone in the administration dismissed him all the liberal economists that you mentioned basically derided him he turned out to be exactly right and he was just saying this about the the one point the roughly 2 trillion they passed back in february for of covet stimulus and you know since then they passed 1.2 trillion for infrastructure and now it's this another 5 trillion for build back better so you know the real problem here is that they are not adjusting course in light of this data that keeps coming out that inflation is a bigger and bigger so what's the right thing to do in your mind sacks and then elon said it can this bill we don't need it this is not what biden was elected to do you know he was elected to provide normalcy stop the chaos and he never got a mandate for this kind of you know whatever 10 trillion dollars we've been wanting

SPEAKER_152: to do an infrastructure bill for a long time but we didn't that was prior to pumping so much stimulus

SPEAKER_00: into the system just done the infrastructure bill and not the build back better it would have been one thing um but we're this is basically the the third hyper stimulatory bill that that they've sought to pass first they did the covet release bill at a time when really the economy didn't need that stimulus

SPEAKER_33: all right and then just dovetailing this and get chamath involved in this is the jobs report uh november non-farm payrolls increased only 210 they expected it to be 573 so it's a big miss however kind of a missed bag because there's over 11 million job openings and we're now at 4.2

SPEAKER_16: unemployment rate which is the lowest which is getting towards the pandemic lows and you know this is like before the 2008 financial crisis chamath how do you reconcile inflation along with this crazy

SPEAKER_33: bizarre job situation where people will not go back to work people are planning on resigning there continues to be resignations and there's too many job openings and people are raising salaries and still

SPEAKER_70: can't hire people well i think we did a pretty good job of unpacking the great resignation i think it was last pod so right remember like yeah there are three structural issues at play in the jobs front one is that you have this really meaningful under immigration that's happened because of trump the second was you've had a big mismatch between the degreed classes in america and the jobs that they can have for what they think they should earn meaning you go to school you get into all this debt you try to become a teacher or something and then you realize you can make more at an amazon warehouse crazy strange and then the fourth is you have all these boomers with an enormous amount of savings 30 40 50 trillion dollars who are pulling forward their retirement and also subsidizing their kids you put it all together there's less of an incentive to be in the job force unless you pay higher wages now let's just put a pin in that for a second i think the thing that sacks talked about is really important which is that we have to really figure out whether inflation is transitory or it's persistent and it's here and i just want to bring up all nick i'll send you these texts uh these the the twitter links to this but uh bill ackman tweeted out these two things today which is that if you fan of the pod brilliant investor by the way a great human being brilliant investor two very specific things he actually called out something that we've we also mentioned before which is that cpi is horribly calculated and it's really imprecise and if you unpack cpi consumer price index the consumer price index there's something in there a component of it that's very important which is called the owner's equivalent rent right how much can somebody basically charge rent to other people the way that they calculate that which is 30 percent of the uh 30 of the calculation is they just survey a handful of people the problem is you don't need to survey because the actual exact data is available from single family rentals that report this number so their survey showed basically a uh much much smaller increase than what the actual increase is and let me just give it so the largest owners of nationwide single family rentals are reporting a 17 year-over-year rent increase wow the the oer that was calculated quote-unquote by survey and the cpi was 3.5 percent if you flow that through it means that core cpi actually went from 4.9 today to actually 9 and the cpi print which was 6.8 was actually 10.1 so it just goes to show you we have sources of data that the government is not in a position to collect or measure we have horribly inaccurate econometric models that we use you know you know that phrase sort of shit in shit out so unfortunately you get very bad garbage you get very bad crappy data and now all of a sudden we're printing numbers we're supposed to make policy against those numbers but the numbers that underlie this decision making is fundamentally flawed and it's flawed in the wrong

SPEAKER_33: direction okay let's bring friedberg in freeberg what do you think is happening here vis-a-vis uh also the creation of companies and entrepreneurship because one of the weird things that's occurring is we're starting to hit a record number of llc's s corps c corps being created it seems like a lot of people are becoming freelance nation uh hundreds of thousands of new companies during the pandemic

SPEAKER_168: were started that is probably one of many places where the water is flowing when you fill my cup and it shall overflow with um i was talking to a guy this week who juicy smolet no it's not that

SPEAKER_176: jesse smolet yeah oh come on put the wine down no no let him drink the wine um and uh fast this guy

SPEAKER_178: has a multi-billion dollar consumer credit portfolio in subprime which means you know he's got the a bunch of consumers owe him money that um generally there's going to be a high default rate and his no comment not and um he said that this year the portfolio performed beyond like the one percentile of the model distribution of what they expected to happen they they had the yield on the portfolio be 40 percent higher than they thought it would be because there's so much liquidity in the hands of individuals and so i think you know um jason while you might make the argument that companies and jobs are be created that is one of many places where like you know you overflow a river and lots of streams start to flow you know we're seeing um asset bubbles everywhere in uh nfts in crypto in startups in new startups and new ideas in home prices in everything now the problem with inflation is um

SPEAKER_184: you know it's a uh definition we all use this term and we throw it about but like inflation is really the

SPEAKER_178: measure of price going up over a period of time and generally you want to have inflation of some amount that allows you to see economic growth and expansion that allows you to fund the debt that you used to create that growth in the first place and so without infl without some sort of an inflationary pressure which is the output of economic growth you end up you know being unable to meet your debt obligations and then things get really ugly and uh the system as it was constructed because most of these governments and systems like we have today are funded by debt so um you know uh stan druckenmiller gave

SPEAKER_184: a good interview in q2 he was kind of on a road show you know um sounding the alarm bells around what

SPEAKER_178: was going on he was saying the market is not speaking right now because basically the fed kept canceling the market signals uh with their um with their interest rate policy and by canceling those market signals it seemed like we had a free-for-all at the government level to keep spending and so i i do think that these two are pretty interrelated the fact that we've kept interest rates low have allowed policymakers to say you know what the cost of debt for this government is zero we can do anything we want just like consumers are saying we can do anything we want we can buy anything we want we can spend any way we want and as a result we're kind of seeing this you know inflationary pressure uh persist now the problem is if you then raise rates and you can't borrow that money and suddenly people have to start to pay that debt down with um without economic growth having occurred business goes the whole system goes bankrupt so the challenge that the fed has is how do we raise rates without triggering an economic recession and if people are now have overspended and are over levered once again and rates go up it's going to get really ugly really fast and so that this is a first derivative balancing act and and yeah there's no simple and easy solution unfortunately meanwhile technology is causing deflationary pressures which is exactly you know maybe what you don't want to see happen when you're trying to realize economic growth um and that's uh yeah the other thing that we talked

SPEAKER_163: about is that the fed basically changed the or the government changed the rules on the percentage

SPEAKER_70: basically what qualifies as a conforming mortgage remember that and so now that's basically at a at a million dollars and if you think about it most americans you know 80 to 90 percent of their true underlying wealth is their home to the extent that they build you know a positive net worth and if you all of a sudden you know push up the upper bound on what a conforming mortgage is to a million a million dollars that effectively means it's and it's roughly about 20 percent that effectively means that you're moving people's net worth up by about four or five percent right that's right so and so if they take that and then they take that money out of their home via a heloc or an equity line of credit right oh my client credit and then you know to your point friedberg they spend it or they invest it or they you know it could be a real disaster scenario um in five or six years by the way

SPEAKER_184: no no this is more like 1929 kind of yeah by the way if you go back uh to the remember when we were in like the depths of the market collapsing and everything when basically the economy shut down with lockdowns when covet started and i was speaking to a senior banker um at that like that day and he told me look it's pretty simple what's going to happen the fed's going to drop interest rates to zero and

SPEAKER_178: they're going to pump money into the system because that's the only way you're going to be able to keep asset prices from collapsing and we're going to artificially inflate asset prices and we're going to do it for a long time because then people look at the stock market and they say oh my gosh stocks are going up oh my gosh revenue is going up everything gets inflated by pumping money into the system and the problem is while there's uh you know a perceived you keep saying the home price goes up and i keep saying stocks go up but the the purchasing power that arises when the inflation is higher than what those things are going up at indicates economic recession underlying that inflationary bubble and the circumstance needs to be analyzed unfortunately a little bit more deeper than that which is it's not just about inflation it's about have we pumped enough money in to trigger economic growth that we can come to balance where the growth can outpace the inflation and we're not there well superimposed on this because if i think about it sorry let me just say let me just say one simple analogy let's say i've got 50 clams and you know there's suddenly a bunch of clams come into the clam market now i got 100 clams and if the number of clams has gone up by 3x my purchasing power has actually gone down by a third while it might look like i've now got twice as many clams i can only

SPEAKER_193: buy one-third as much as i could buy before because there's so many more clams floating around and that's

SPEAKER_82: the problem clams oh you love class clams clams so you like them just all right listen uh i did

SPEAKER_33: a little bit of math i've been watching um the uh price to sales ratios of some of the top companies we can pull this up on the screen um and the price to sales of uh companies including zoom obviously was ridiculous uh during the pandemic that was a pandemic stock so on top of all of this money being printed into the system you had the participation of a bunch of stonk traders you know in that whole movement buying up meme stocks or others we had the price sales ratio of zoom in other words the value of the enterprise versus their actual sales was at 123 it's now at 14.7 peloton was another one of those that 23 now down to 3x down 87 coinbase uh square also it drops off pretty significantly here um but you can also we looked at the peak price to sales um and how much larger it is then and so some of these are now off 8x 4x and then it drops off to 2x 1x um but it's quite a i don't know if you guys are

SPEAKER_16: looking at the numbers or if you have any thoughts on this but we're re it seems like there was a

SPEAKER_70: mispricing of certain equities it wasn't a mispricing the federal reserve forced a lot of institutional investors to be out as long dated as possible uh in buying earnings because if you have to remember it's not just that real rates were effectively zero but if you wanted to own inflation protected securities it was actually a negative yield so we were destroying people's savings and there are a lot of individuals sorry well not individuals institutions that must own some of these inflation protected assets so we were already in a negative yield environment what are those folks supposed to do if they have to fund an eight percent return a year to pay the pensions of you know good people firefighters teachers you know it's you name it policemen etc right they were forced to invest in the kinds of funds that would then go out further and further out into the future to buy the promise of future cash flows and when all of a sudden a whole bunch of other assets that that they held which were supposed to be safe implodes on them right because all of a sudden inflation changes and the front end of the yield curve goes and all of a sudden all these assets when yields go up prices go down now the fireman's pension is like oh my gosh we just lost all this money we never thought we were going to lose and we're long all these you know crazy tech stocks and so then they're forced to sell so that their overall exposure goes down that's called degrossing okay and we've been going through a very painful process of this degrossing hedge funds are doing it

SPEAKER_16: um in droves can i ask you a question then shema i'm sorry to interrupt but should they not have looked at these multiples and said you know what maybe this one's out of whack and i should buy the

SPEAKER_35: ones that are not as out of whack because this is not really not really because for the last 15 years

SPEAKER_70: if you had you know the the problem with being a value investor over the last 15 years since 2008 is you were basically a dumpster diver and you got paid absolutely you know you didn't make anything because because they misunderstood what value was value isn't necessarily things that are cheap

SPEAKER_197: value is things that are things that are valuable and over the last 15 or 20 years what was once a question is now definitive which is that the things that are valuable tend to be technological because they're super high margin they grow really quickly they compound they create enormous cash flows

SPEAKER_70: at scale so agree the point is you couldn't own that stuff and if you sat on the sidelines you weren't meeting your eight percent hurdle you were all of a sudden looking at some risk of defaulting on your pension obligations so this is how this whole cycle brought us to today so there was nowhere

SPEAKER_16: what you're saying is if i can summarize there was nowhere else for them to put their money sacks price matters though so is this just bad capital allocation people weren't thinking about the entry price of their investments we're giving too much credit well i think i think what happened is

SPEAKER_157: that you had a liquidity fuel boom um going on so what we've seen over the past four or five weeks

SPEAKER_00: about the first week in november most the market basically peaked and at least growth stocks did and sas companies did if you look kind of november 8th was sort of the beginning of the downturn and since then most of these growth stocks are down about 30 percent plus crypto is down now i mean it's sliding as we speak 30 40 off a off a peak around the same time what happened around the first week in november well you had three fed governors come out and make very hawkish statements about the fact that the fed was going to need to double the speed of its taper and that you're going to have two to three rate increases next year and so basically we went from being in a low interest rate environment which has been the case with not only just low interest rate environment low interest rates with massive stimulus and pumping out of washington by both the fed and by uh by congress okay and so you went from that environment to all of a sudden an environment if now we're expecting to have rate increases and that's going to suck the liquidity out of the system the the amazing thing that i'm seeing right now is that every investor i know is having the same conversation it doesn't matter whether you're a sas investor or a real estate investor or a crypto investor they're all having the same conversation which is what are interest rates going to do how much liquidity is that going to suck out of the system and how much of the boom that we've experienced over the last couple of years has been because of this unnatural liquidity that's been pumped into the system and so i've never seen i've never seen it be the case that investors across every asset category are having that macro

SPEAKER_02: conversation as opposed to talking about like micro stuff right like the specific company the

SPEAKER_204: earnings the product who they're beating the market share nobody's talking about that like

SPEAKER_206: what building do i buy or what sas can i invest in it's all about what is happening in the macro picture

SPEAKER_00: and this is where i think what biden is doing is so unbelievably off base is okay look he didn't start trillion dollar deficits um you know that happened to the previous president i'm not saying that was good but but now what we have is a situation here of um of the fed is getting extremely hawkish of

SPEAKER_208: tightening um we're seeing inflation now out of control and yet there's been no adjustment

SPEAKER_163: whatsoever nobody's on a policy basis can we just nobody's hitting the brakes wait let's just let's just call let's just call a spade a spade at this point because i think we can i think and i think

SPEAKER_70: biden was is and will ever be a really moderate down the middle centrist i don't think there's ever

SPEAKER_197: been an extreme bone in that man's body he has always come off at like you know the word that i think when i've always thought of biden even now is equanimity the guy is a really um down the middle

SPEAKER_70: person he's not an extreme individual i think that's the only kind of personality by the way that could have thrived for eight years as a vp with obama and had been in every room in every meeting the problem sacks and tell me if you think this is totally off base is that there was a head fake after he won the presidency where there was this fake lurch to the progressive left

SPEAKER_197: and it turned out that it was a complete head fake because that whole cohort of people just totally jumped the shark because all that rhetoric then unfortunately turned out to be not worth much it started to blow up in their face in every single election that's happened since then at the local level in cities at the state level in places like virginia and in the middle of all of

SPEAKER_70: that i actually think what happened was that faction tried to push an extremely aggressive legislative agenda to paint biden as the next roosevelt which maybe he didn't even have the desire to be because i i think that he seems a very low ego kind of person and now we're actually realizing oh my gosh this makes no sense and so the part of why i think the markets are are kind of like hand-wringing is you would expect at this point the federal bureaucracy to actually step in but i think there's like a real lack of confidence because for example today when there's a cpi print of somewhere between seven and ten percent the only democratic sounding you know the talking point was one of the

SPEAKER_216: squad proposing a four-day work week i mean right that is insane that guys you're in crazy debt and

SPEAKER_218: you're like you know we should do guys we should spend more money and work less when the cdo says we're

SPEAKER_42: about to go three more trillion into debt the solution isn't to fort well it's i i actually

SPEAKER_70: think if you want to work less work less you know maybe you're lucky and your boomer parents can give you money but there's a bunch of us like me who had to grind i didn't have anybody to fall back on and if you all of a sudden passed the law that said hey chamath you can only work four days a week i would be really angry because you're depriving me of 20 more of a chance to beat all those other soft candy asses

SPEAKER_122: that went to all those fancy schools that weren't willing to work yeah ignore that's the stupidest

SPEAKER_00: suggestion let me work so i think i think this this proposal that came out to basically this was a new proposal that they were going to limit the work week to four days a week uh wouldn't let people work five days a week the reason why it's well it's a bad idea in general but it's a particularly uh sort of a brain dead idea to propose during um a height you sort of this inflationary period because again inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods well so you have a demand component from the pumping and the stimulus but you also have the supply component which is we don't have enough goods and services why because we've been you know passing out these stimmy checks that um that disincentivize people from working we have problems with the ports we have these

SPEAKER_217: coveted restrictions have all gone restaurants are closing three days a week because they right so we've

SPEAKER_00: had a shortage of so we've had a shortage of goods and services the last thing we need is a 20 reduction in the number of work days and work hours that are available so it just shows like how out of touch these progressives are but look to chamath to your point about biden i i look i i don't know you know exactly what's in biden's heart to me it doesn't really matter i think i actually think he's pretty liberal um he's not all the way out to where you know aoc is fine fair enough but look at the end of the day i think you know this idea of biden being a moderate you know the moderate is as moderate does he has not governed like a moderate whether that's because you know this moderate thing was just a marketing shtick on his part and he's actually more liberal or whether

SPEAKER_228: he's been co-opped and taken over by the progressives i don't really care what the reason is the fact of the matter is he is not governed like at least we pull back the spend david

SPEAKER_33: i mean the spend we have not pull back to spend well no no no the original remember the original uh

SPEAKER_231: we just loaded that we put the bullet in the chamber and loaded it for mansion this bill is not going to happen david with the three trillion dollar deficit increase i hope not i mean but the point

SPEAKER_00: is that look if if if people like us don't speak up and say this is a reckless pump foolish yes exactly

SPEAKER_16: then you can only fly the plane so fast before the wings come off this is too much speed for the airframe let's go to a clip of our friend elon this is a five trillion dollar bill let's go to this clip of

SPEAKER_238: elon talking about capital allocation uh it's a couple of it's like 30 seconds and then friedberg i'd like you to comment on the other side let's go you know at some point really what you're doing

SPEAKER_239: is capital allocation so you're not it's not money for personal expenditures it's what you're doing is capital allocation and it does not make sense to take uh the the job of capital allocation away from people who have demonstrated great skill in capital allocation and give it to uh you know an entity that has demonstrated very poor skill in capital allocation which is the government yeah friedberg

SPEAKER_243: your thoughts on look i've said it in the past this is at a wall street journal conference by the way

SPEAKER_178: you can think of um a government or a non-profit or a corporation the organization as an organism as a living organism and each living organism wants to eat and grow um and there there is no such thing as an organism that says over time i want to shrink and shrivel away and die so the organizing principle of the people in the government is to do more for their constituents for their owners which are what they believe to be the taxpayers or their or their you know the folks that elected them to office the the politicians themselves i would argue are more actors in the ouija board of behavior that's going on here and you know less kind of you know the the mental designer of a system that they're trying to use to infiltrate change in the world individually and conquer and gain individual power there may be some degree of motivation there but i think largely it's more about the fact that that organism that government wants to grow wants to spend more wants to do more over time not less and um this is true of any business every business wants to grow if you're not growing you're dying and uh every non-profit there's no such thing as a non-profit that says let's not fundraise and let's spend all our money and then shut down um and so i just think like you know as much as we want to kind of sit here and rationalize a way to better politicians that are going to better serve us that are going to think smarter um the reality is every government every you know institution of government in the history of humankind has tried to grow and eventually they cycle back you know the united states like i said last year you know maybe kind of going out with uh with a little bit of a whimper less of a bang and that's going to you know be a function of the devaluation of currency or you know having less of a place in the in the global stage um and so on but i think elon's right like you know he feels and many people in business feel like they're in competition with the government uh for capital um and yeah yeah and that that capital is the the only difference is that the government can force that capital it can force that revenue and uh and no business can and so they've got an unfair advantage in that in that um that stage of playing for capital and this is where you know bitcoin feels to a lot of people like a great equalizer and yeah i'm not a i'm not a huge like i'm not not a bitcoin maximalist or anything but i think that's where the appeal arises which is um you know as jefferson said like every uh generation needs a revolution and i think that this is the revolution that folks are looking for which is how do we get this big monopolistic player off the playing field to let us do what we want to do

SPEAKER_00: well i mean it's so easy i mean all biden has to do is what he was elected to he never had a mandate for this 10 trillion dollars of spending i mean the guy ran a basement campaign i mean his he was elected to not be trump okay he was elected to stop the chaos not yeah not to not to engage this 10 trillion dollar adults progressive agenda um you know elon i think made a really good point about the capital allocation there you know people think okay elon's got all this money so he must be enjoying this like incredible lifestyle look he's right that once you have that much money you can't spend it all on personal consumption you invest it and so the question is who's going to make that investment is who's going to be better at it elon or the federal government we know elon is better at it he creates incredible innovations he's going to put people on mars i mean he can do incredible things with that capital a million just squanders it you know there's another elon had another really good i think elon actually understands um economics at a macro level really well he had a really good um there's an equally good snippet of him on the rogan show um you know where he says look there's a lot of people out there who think the economy is just like this horn of plenty that produces all these goods and the goods just magically appear no matter what we do okay and so if some people have more goods than others it's just because they stole them from the horn of plenty what he actually but he said is no that's not the way the economy works people actually have to make the stuff you know if people don't make the stuff there is no stuff okay the stuff doesn't just magically appear and the way the stuff gets made is you have people making smart capital allocation decisions and engaging in hard work and that's what actually produces the stuff and it's not a zero-sum game so if you think about like this agenda that we have in washington it really flips this on its head it it's doing everything it can to stop the production of the stuff whether it's the stimmy checks or the covet lockdowns or um you know bonus unemployment

SPEAKER_231: or just confiscating the earnings of people so that they can spend it on whatever they want

SPEAKER_253: exactly it's it's actually it's actually putting constraints on the production on the supply of this

SPEAKER_00: stuff and then meanwhile it's just printing all this money so then we wonder where's the inflation

SPEAKER_255: come from obviously it's coming from printing more money for fewer goods that's that's basically the

SPEAKER_33: problem with the agenda we have in washington right now the increase in the deficit is just getting stunning uh if you look back on the five or six last uh presidents reagan 142 increase uh he got us up to 1.42 trillion he had to obviously uh combat what happened under jimmy carter uh george bush george hw bush 30 36 increase president bill clinton a 1 decrease the first time we've had a stimulus i'm sorry a surplus in a long time and then uh bush the second 57 increase you know the

David Sacks: economic results senator bill clinton were amazing i've been amazing i was just about to say he's a goat

SPEAKER_16: yeah but i mean at the time what was very interesting is politicians actually took this issue of balancing the budget very seriously seriously deadly seriously and thinking about how we would pay for things and now we don't seem to think about who is going to pay for these things yes which

SPEAKER_264: is going to screw our children okay so you have to remember that bill clinton was the president who

SPEAKER_00: said the era of big government is over and when he left office he actually bragged about reducing the federal government's share of the economy from 22 percent to 18 and a half percent you would never hear a democratic president it'll never happen again you'll never hear a democratic president well

SPEAKER_255: first of all they wouldn't do it but second they wouldn't brag about it you know you can't even say something like that let me ask you do you think a republican president

SPEAKER_178: would because i'm not convinced that any party matters at this point it feels to me like the incentive structure is such that the individuals who are representing constituents who get them elected and they can pass more dollars back to those constituents drives a systemic model of growth for the government and therefore the government is complete competing as a monopoly

SPEAKER_268: on the field for capital yeah look i think you thought trump was going to be this guy and trump came in and he ended up spending more and i recognize there were extenuating circumstances and so on but i thought

SPEAKER_178: he was going to go in i thought the the premise was blow up the government you know cut all this

SPEAKER_00: nonsense and the deficit kind of shot up you're you're right that republicans have a very spotty record on on uh government spending and we did have trillion dollar deficits pre-covid under trump and that was not that was not good um but what biden is doing now in the face of inflation is worse and look i mean historically the best the the only times that you really have um it seems like fiscal responsibility is when you actually have the best track records have been when you have democratic presidents republican congresses and the republicans suddenly find their principles on spending when the there's a democrat in the white house you're right that when trump was in office and had congress and uh george w bush you know had congress republicans spent a lot of money too so it's absolutely a bipartisan problem but what's happening now in washington is under biden is is unprecedented it is a breaking of the bank they're talking about minting trillion dollar coins so yes it was a problem under republicans but this is even worse um and here's another thing is the fed is now saying that they're projecting two to three rate increases next year so let's call that 75 basis points multiply that by the close to 30 trillion of government debt that you're talking about jason that's about 150 billion a year of interest payments on the debt of debt service

SPEAKER_276: okay 150 extra extra extra extra that doesn't exist today straight by the way this is right it's all

SPEAKER_255: short-term rates because yes so so you're looking at 150 billion of incremental debt service costs right

SPEAKER_206: so multiply that over 10 years that's 1.5 trillion over 10 years that's your build back better right there where is this money for build back better going to come from when we have 1.5 trillion of

SPEAKER_16: increased interest rate costs starting next year and and how do we get the cycle of people wanting to go back to work and be productive it feels to me like this could be wages which is what's happening

SPEAKER_280: but people are still not going back to work have you been watching the this the the people are

SPEAKER_82: offering 70 000 to be a manager of a taco bell and people will understand well then you offer 75 000.

SPEAKER_272: i still don't think they fill it no i think i think i think i think that model is dead i think low cost labor is inevitably the cost if they're making 75 000 i mean i think i think the

SPEAKER_178: in order for people to buy the production i don't think i don't think labor but i don't think taco bell is going to sell burritos if they cost six dollars so if they're going to have to raise labor costs people aren't going to be buying taco bell they're going to go somewhere else so the low cost model of consumerism in the united states which has been a stronghold for our economy for 100 years at this point may be coming to an end or it will accelerate the implementation of automation across that sector of the economy yeah that's what's i think that's more likely

SPEAKER_70: that's more likely yeah by the way one of the if you read the press release for the four days a week

SPEAKER_118: i'd pay four dollars for a taco bell burrito though gobbledygook in the four days a week thing it said workers for far too long have been forced to work very long hours and not get paid and

SPEAKER_231: wait wait they were not paid and so the idea is just like you know opt out but then if you opt out

SPEAKER_293: you'll make even less you know in a moment where you can actually make more yeah these idiots who

SPEAKER_205: are coming up with these ideas the chinese must be the chinese is literally looking at these buys

SPEAKER_295: house right in the american economy oh my god but in terms of in terms of well they don't need to do

SPEAKER_301: anything we're destroying it from the inside yeah exactly so just just in terms of what we should

SPEAKER_00: do here i actually think there's a lot of strength in the economy right now it's all not all negative i mean the unemployment rate is down to four and a half percent the labor participation rate yeah it's it's quite low i mean it was three and a half percent before covet so we're getting close to where we were before covet the labor participation rate is not great i think it's like 61 percent salary 63 it was 63 percent before covet so we need to get more people working we could do that by ending the stimmy checks okay but the most important thing we could do right now is manchin would do biden the biggest favor by just putting a bullet in this build back better plan because i actually think there'd be a massive relief rally and the economy would take off like a rocket next year if you just got government out of the way they have printed enough the best thing that could happen is they stop this pumping and stimulus and then the fed doesn't have to raise rates as aggressively next year and we could let things have more of a soft landing as opposed to the sudden austerity which is

SPEAKER_33: whipsawing the economy so just slow the plane down and then maybe break this bill into 20 component

SPEAKER_309: parts and and just try to get all the money he spent all the money it's spent i mean this is a

SPEAKER_310: bender of all benders and if people are refusing to go back to work we're gonna have to we talked about this in the last episode we're gonna have to think about generalization jason i think it's a

SPEAKER_178: generalization to say people refuse to go back to work i think the jobs that people had when when their options open up to them um you know may not be jobs they want to go back to correct and i think that there's going to be a larger significant growth in a services economy that didn't exist before think about how many yoga instructors there are today that didn't exist 20 years ago

SPEAKER_314: how many you know people doing their creators youtube creators creators creators the creator economy

SPEAKER_178: alone right like hollywood no longer has a monopoly on content and people are spending more time consuming content than ever before so you know there's a services economy that i don't think we really predicted or modeled and we all assume oh my god we're not gonna no one's going back to work it's like guess what people are spending money and they're going to spend money on new stuff and these new industries are going to emerge we know creators and those creators are going to create jobs around them you know one amazing creator will hire 100 people to you know staff his videos and make his music and edit his stuff and you know run his business and so on like it's just it's just the way that the economy shifts there's been a moment here that is like a cambrian explosion of new species of industry um where you know this meteorite of uh covet came and hit planet earth there was an eradication of the old species you know minimum wage jobs for crappy labor work that people don't want to do and all of a sudden the sun came out and new stuff is emerging and new life forms are emerging new jobs are emerging and i think we're just we're going through a really ugly transitory period but i think like like sax said it could be really great on the other side and there's also yeah sorry there's one more argument to be made which is our friend brad gerstner sent me a note today saying i know you guys are going to rant on your all in pod today about inflation i want to remind you about the deflationary effect of technology and it is really being felt in the economy i think we all see it how software alone can reduce the operating cost and the labor cost of businesses drive up margins increase growth and so you know there's a number of tailwinds here but i think sax is right there's a masking going on with respect to the capital that's just being bandied about right now um and it uh it's it's a it's a risky nasty kind of um you know maelstrom

SPEAKER_238: of a of a sea we're trying to cross right now i want to point out two positive things to build

SPEAKER_33: on sax's positivity number one i don't know if you guys are following uh omicron in the uk they have record cases right now but deaths and they're also done great with the vaccine obviously a small country with a lot of resources so they're hitting record cases for this last cycle but deaths and hospitalizations are down and they say upward 25 50 is part is now moved to omicron and it seems like uh that this

SPEAKER_321: could be the end game uh maybe and did you ever see the uh the end of um was it outbreak where they

SPEAKER_178: like dropped that bomb and it was like the massive bomb that takes all the air out of the room and like shock shocks everything and then they're like okay it's over you know there could be this thing happening where omicron is the you know the the air bomb that gets dropped clears the room and then

SPEAKER_33: it's all over you know well and then here's the other thing uh we don't know i'm seeing the salaries going up faster than inflation people are raising people's salaries you know in double digits to try to get them to come to these jobs so the people who are choosing to go back to work and people are eventually choosing that and switching jobs to chamat's point i think they're gonna be making more money and they're gonna be more resilient and they are gonna be a little more empowered and that

SPEAKER_124: could end up being a great thing and then finally in terms of technology i have one robotic company uh that serves coffee and they had a record week pump it they i'm not gonna pump it but they got

SPEAKER_280: i don't want to say the name pump it no no they they broke 11 000 in people ordering from a robotic coffee machine previously the record was like 7k a week so people tell your stupid lady friend i have

SPEAKER_82: an 11 000 sweater oh no please stop it stop it uh all right listen i don't know if you guys saw this better.com layoffs viral video but it can you can you break this down jacal i had i was not

SPEAKER_238: following this all right very simple there's a company called better.com they get rid of origination fees or whatever and commissions they try to get you faster mortgages insurance whatever uh they were

SPEAKER_33: going to spac softbank was going to put in 1.5 billion in the pipe everything was going according

SPEAKER_184: to something was already in the company right so they were trying to get their own company

SPEAKER_33: out yeah so uh obviously the market corrects everybody always asks us as a group what happens when the market corrects well here you're about to see it this guy decides i got to cut 10 of the company instead of having his managers go to each group and have a logical small discussion about how they're going to correct things and maybe some sort of thoughtful process he decides he's going to get on

SPEAKER_29: zoom to the entire 900 people who are fired and in a very bizarre way nine 900 people 900 people

SPEAKER_16: but over zoom over zoom how big is this company 10 000 employees and he says to them that the last time i had to do this i laid people off i was i cried and i'm going to try to do better this time but if you are on this call effective immediately you're fired it's just another one of these crazy

SPEAKER_238: clips we have to i want to see it 30 seconds chamath give me your thoughts on this side

SPEAKER_344: thank you for joining i come to you with not great news the market has changed as you know and uh we

SPEAKER_345: have to move so that hopefully challenging decision to make this is the second time in my career i'm doing this and i do this okay and then here's the second clip where he basically tells everybody over

SPEAKER_82: zoom that you're not going to be able to log in and you got two weeks severance three weeks before a month severance and it's like three weeks before christmas go ahead we are laying off about 15

SPEAKER_349: of the company efficiency and performances and productivity if you're on this call you dude that is being laid off your employment here is terminated effective immediately are you kidding me what does this mean for what's next you're going to get an email from hr details of your severance employees full benefits for which we will pay the premium so three months

SPEAKER_243: all right uh i mean for we've all operated business before i mean does anybody i've had to do layoffs

SPEAKER_357: before it is the most brutal thing yeah yeah this is the exact wrong way to do it though terrible i i

SPEAKER_312: remember an aol there's no right way to do it but i think the question with this guy is to examine

SPEAKER_178: you know the growth incentive that got him to this point he took softbank money softbank as you guys as we all know creates a very strong incentive and capitalizes businesses to go after kind of ultra perhaps unnatural growth and there's almost always shocks that occur after they do that and the circumstance i think could have been avoided maybe he built a business a little more steady but then his valuation would have been lower and he wouldn't have been able to access as much capital and so you know unfortunately the loss of jobs is the cost of capital with these ultra high growth incentives that are kind of being structurally built into the fundraising rounds in these later stage deals lately

SPEAKER_361: i don't know if you guys agree but it's your sax and then chamatha okay so how would you do the

SPEAKER_00: sax you're an operator yeah i mean so i've had to lay people off before but never in this era of covid and remote work so the question and and look it is miserable and i think that it is the right thing to do for him to take responsibility if if there if this restructuring was caused by a strategy that was you know overly prioritized growth i think he could say something like look this is my fault the company's fault you know not your fault so i think exactly i think he could have couched that i think he could take responsibility that being said i don't think he owed the groveling apology that he was forced to make because look here's the thing how do you lay 900 people off in this era of remote work i mean they're all working from home there's no office for them to go into where you can sit them down one-on-one like a human like you used to be able to do and have a and have a conversation so they are laying people off by zoom now and it's unfortunate but i think it's just this new world that we're in and i don't know that there's a much better way to do this i think the words could have been better maybe it could have been more organized but how do you lay

SPEAKER_310: off people who are working from home i have an idea but chamath let me let you go first any thoughts

SPEAKER_53: you want to add and i'll tell you how i would have done it i remember when i had to do my first layoff

SPEAKER_70: uh at aol um there and and there was a lot of those riffs and i remember the first one i was in my early to mid 20s as a manager and we had three or four people or whatever and i remember distinctly that aol had this policy at the time because i guess they had maybe like better like tens of thousands of people employees lots of call center as an example and they've had to have riffs before they would have security guards and there would be a security guard outside the meeting room where you would bring somebody in and talk to them and i just remember being seared in my mind because never having done it before i was like sweating profusely really nervous i didn't know what to say i felt really bad i felt very guilty and then you learn how to do these things and there is a very humane way to try to do these things it's never the best thing to do but you try to give people a fair exit package and all of these things let me put that aside because i think what freebrooke said is so good and so important the root cause of why this is here as far as i can tell is not a company that doesn't have consumer demand it's a company that may have been mismanaged for growth to meet the

SPEAKER_197: consumer demand because of too much money and this is a thing that is an avoidable mistake

SPEAKER_70: and this is where you have to figure out how much you want to basically swim with the tide and be like everybody else which is to be able to go to the dinner party say i raised x amount of dollars at y valuation and just keep taking it up and taking it up or to actually have the discipline to hit the brakes and say i don't need it i don't know what to do with it i'm not ready to take it i need to figure out my business model those are two different kinds of decisions there's going to be layoffs in both but if he actually came at it from the perspective of listen guys we've been growing methodically and there's just been a structural change or for example rates are ticking up there's a lot less demand and we have to right size the company that's a very different statement than maybe we overgrew because we were drunk on free money and now we have to realize that we actually have too much capacity for the demand that actually exists and those are avoidable mistakes frankly yeah

SPEAKER_33: i've had to do layoffs obviously it's it's not fun um this was executed terribly to your point sax i think a much easier way to do this would have been to go to the leaders in each group and say hey listen we're going to have to do these layoffs it's going to affect different groups so

SPEAKER_16: you take your group into a subset of zoom you explain to those people and you do it hey listen we're

SPEAKER_33: reorganizing because of these reasons chamas had some good language there other people did but this idea of mass firing 900 people with one person that's the critical area here that's either that's a little

SPEAKER_372: megalomaniacal that's almost like he wanted to talk about himself in this as opposed to taking

SPEAKER_16: responsibility to unpack it um obviously when something like this happens then the floodgates open forbes got a uh 2020 email leak where he called his own employees dumb dolphins in the email that's been leaked since this came out you are cap locks on too damn slow you are a bunch of dumb dolphins and dumb dolphins get caught in nets eating by sharks so stop it cap locks on stop it

SPEAKER_00: stop it right now this is the pile on this is the pile on yeah no for 24 hours he's the incarnation of evil in the eyes of the media and then they're going to move on to a new person in a couple of days so

SPEAKER_379: i mean look i think have you ever written that to employees do we have an email coming out from

SPEAKER_381: i wrote all caps guys i i quit the group chat for a day i all caps you guys this week hilarious

SPEAKER_253: rage quit but can i connect with something chamas said about uh about okay so that you have this this

SPEAKER_00: this larger question about or did the company grow too fast and our founders asking the right questions about growing too fast let me connect that with the first conversation we had about the macroeconomic situation i think you know every startup board right now probably needs to be having a conversation about the macro picture because there's one of two possibilities happening right now we've already seen in the past five weeks we've seen 30 to 40 percent uh correction in the public markets for growth stocks and sas companies that is absolutely going to trickle down to venture valuations i think it already has if you look at the crossover guys like tiger and koto and d1 i guarantee you they're all updating their models their valuation models based on the public comps so you know we are now in a slightly different environment i don't know that 100 times arr is is is the metric anymore as it was you know say two months ago i don't know where the new metric is going to land we're going to have to see some deals get done post correction but you know we could be in a very different environment here and i think i think there's two possibilities either the the rate increases that are coming next year are now priced in and we're going to go back into you know a mode of going back up and to the right and especially i think if this bbb bill gets killed we'll go back and up to the right or this could beginning be the beginning of a protracted slide as you know more and more market participants realize that we're in a very different kind of environment and we may not have

SPEAKER_33: seen the bottom if you were running a company sax and you had just raised that 100 million dollar crazy round at 100 times what do you do if you were running a company what would you do i just had this

SPEAKER_02: conversation with one of our sas founders they just closed a monster round at a great valuation and i

SPEAKER_00: literally a few weeks ago and they have some interest for more people wanting to get into the round and i just pointed out listen you know we may be going into a very different environment and i think the company is worth the valuation we got but you know the if you just look at the public comps valuations are down 30 40 percent so if we were to take more money into the round at the same valuation that's kind of a good deal for the company and it gives us more runway gives us more

SPEAKER_206: insurance secure the bag no we should secure yeah so we those are the types of conversations i think it's prudent to be having right now and frankly there's a lot of investors and certainly a lot of

SPEAKER_00: founders who never lived through the dot-com crash and down markets and they don't know how bad it can

SPEAKER_152: get they've only seen good times right what 18 months of nuclear winter no no checks being written

SPEAKER_161: yeah i mean whatever you got whatever food you have in the cupboard is what you're eating for the next

SPEAKER_00: two thousand to two thousand three you had three years of nuclear winter pretty much um but you know in 2008 2009 it was about 18 months of nuclear winter i mean yeah it's just it wasn't even it wasn't even

SPEAKER_118: that cold but you want to hear a great uh 2008 2009 fundraising story sure uh i'm at facebook

SPEAKER_70: market just implodes and we need we decide that we need to raise some insurance just a little in you know a little insurance policy a little money a little downside protection and uh i remember that we were having all these conversations with uh tcv and you know they're they're a really good firm uh very smart and basically you know we we told them what the price was i think it was like seven billion dollars pre right like seven billion dollars we want to raise 500 million just please just do it we we just want to need a little margin of safety and they came back with their model and they updated their model david to your point and um uh they came back at like 6.8 or 6.7 something like that 6.5 and we were like my god what the is this like this is not seven we just like we just want to raise some money at seven and seven was a down round because we had already taken money from microsoft at 10 billion no at 15. so we had thought we had hit the jackpot when a year ago a year earlier we raised 249 million dollars from microsoft now by the way why 249 because at 250 million bomber would have to go to the board so he goes one one million under the number where bomber can sign the check himself so we get bomber in for 249 at 15 billion a year later the great financial crisis happens we are raising money we tell tcv please just give us 500 million at seven or eight some number they come in 700 million under because their model says whatever and i will never forget this it was a saturday afternoon i was on the phone and i think it was with like ted elliott our general counsel at the time and we got an a term sheet from a certain person yuri milner at dst and yuri came in he he throws the high heater at like eight and a half or nine no board seat all common i mean a completely disruptive mood mood and move and all i just remember asking

SPEAKER_118: ted elliott was does he vet meaning like will the wire clear will justice let the money come into the

SPEAKER_70: united states not knowing right because we had heard you know anyways the money cleared we took the check and the rest is history i have a good story about when you are when you are facing an enormous downturn you have a fiduciary responsibility david to your point to make sure you're well capitalized but then on the other side you have a really important fiduciary responsibility

SPEAKER_197: to you and all the employees and everybody else to run this thing properly and you cannot get confused

SPEAKER_231: that value and valuation are not the same thing absolutely not yeah and so the minute you conflate

SPEAKER_164: the two and you're like i'm an x billion dollar company and start behaving that way you're dead

SPEAKER_184: by the way there's a big difference i think it's important to note i know it's been said many times

SPEAKER_178: before but i'll i'll say it again there's a difference between what your responsibility is as a board and as a fiduciary to the shareholders of that individual company and what the incentives and motivations are for the big investor that just put all this money into your company for their portfolio as a whole for their portfolio as a whole they would rather tell everyone go hard go fast spend as much money as you can and they hope that one out of ten companies becomes a hundred x from there and it's okay if nine out of ten die so they don't care if you die they care if one out of ten companies goes a hundred x yep you have a different incentive and a different motivation because if the company dies your shareholders you as an entrepreneur your team lose out and that tension needs to be understood really clearly by entrepreneurs and executives that are taking money under these conditions tiger global softbank co2 they're great people there's good people investing there but the incentive for them is quite different than it is for you they're betting on a big winner yes do not do not expect that just because they're betting on a big winner that they're expecting you

SPEAKER_116: will be the big winner it's they're indifferent as long as they have one go 100x it's fine

SPEAKER_33: doesn't matter what happens to you when i met yuri milner he came to a certain poker game not to play but just to say hi and i said to him i said you put all that money into facebook

SPEAKER_16: a week or two after it happened i said why didn't you take a board seat that's never happened and he

SPEAKER_321: looked at me and he goes jesson calacanis you don't need to have a board seat to be influential

SPEAKER_416: i think this guy's gonna like whack me any minute

SPEAKER_420: the rest is history you do not need the board seat to be influential i was like what do they use

SPEAKER_422: the compromise what i don't i don't want to know he's got guys and someday i'll tell the story of

SPEAKER_41: the three-hour lunch i have at yuri milner all right listen for i uh i don't know if we have anything us to clean up here are we talking about juicy small is it jesse all right listen there's famous

SPEAKER_212: french actors as dave chapelle calls him the famous french actor juicy smaller all right listen i don't

SPEAKER_124: even want to go there but i there's a person who pretend this i mean i think it's actually worth talking about since we do go to yeah we do talk about race sometimes there's an actor who faked

SPEAKER_82: that he was attacked in a bias attack he was found guilty of doing this it's deranged it's sad the person has mental issues i'm hanging i'm not interested i'm not interested in the gossipy

SPEAKER_429: stories you guys have a good time i'll see you guys all later wait wait wait okay let's move what

SPEAKER_431: what else we got on the docket i don't want to lose freeberg so i don't i don't i miss friedberg i want to hug freeberg's bony body why don't you come to the party tomorrow coming what are you

SPEAKER_118: right well i've been trying all of a sudden you're john lennon boys boys i was in i did the thing with the thing of the thing okay and then i was in another thing all right that's all good okay so

SPEAKER_437: don't show up jake out said he was gonna go skiing i said you go skiing have a good time no i'm showing

SPEAKER_321: that this is like the beatles and you know what shamat's turning into to john lennon he's gonna hang out he's got some we got we got some buddies there we gotta show up well rickety's going sacks you're

SPEAKER_431: going guys do you know how far it is from where i live from i know because i play i come to your

SPEAKER_436: house to play poker he comes to your house every week and i love you for that yeah are you gonna go

SPEAKER_124: sacks what's the chance of sacks shows up you rsvp are you gonna go sacks should i pick up the rsvp

SPEAKER_365: he didn't even do one of his oh for freeberg's holiday party yeah well i have a conflict oh you have a

SPEAKER_372: oh my god what is the conflict you need to drink some pappy all day party tomorrow night so let's go you're going down to for his party can i go i'll skip friedberg's for that yeah yeah all right

SPEAKER_454: fine sorry for everybody we're selling you out wait why are you guys it's all good besties are you

SPEAKER_447: have wait a second you're picking over friedberg i mean i've gone all day party for like the last five years or whatever it is number maybe more years than that it's always tell us what it's like tell us

SPEAKER_176: what this is a good party when you see him do you look him in the eyes and say what have you done for me lately the two of them never the two of them haven't looked each other in the eyes and never

SPEAKER_158: when they first met they accidentally okay i gotta run what oh wait no wait wait okay let's do the jussie small thing quickly no we do it last because you don't want to talk about it better this is the

SPEAKER_467: last thing we've been doing for over an hour new bank ipo was huge who cares it was a complete

SPEAKER_82: disaster eighty percent of people already in their smack buzzfeed is circling the drain what a

SPEAKER_230: disaster the end thank you for tuning in to the all-in pod no that's all we have on the docket today

SPEAKER_471: chamath is ready man only chamath is loose loosey-goosey he's a little loosey he wants to go

SPEAKER_472: for i've been working i've been working so well i am working so hard i know i am wiped out this week

SPEAKER_476: i was traveling all week i'm exhausted i got people in town i gotta run

SPEAKER_82: uh okay we'll let freeburg go we'll just go for five more minutes i'm gonna go tomorrow freeburg i'm not selling you out like these other two i love you like ringo and love you free burgers

SPEAKER_479: love you guys we'll see you later lennon over here i'm gonna be oh did they tell you about my

SPEAKER_358: poker game on monday oh my god poker game thanks for the invite oh my god it we lost our minds oh no

SPEAKER_484: and there was there was some is there a big al story there was some enormous carnage

SPEAKER_118: uh wires were initiated today so everything is settled i were you carnaged nope oh i did a little

SPEAKER_331: bit of this i did a little chewing of the carcasses you're like one of those was there a whale and

SPEAKER_219: you're just like a great white shark just taking bites after the whale's dead of the blubber we quit

SPEAKER_53: at 3 00 a.m and it was uh it was nice that is crazy all right so for jesse small and now that uh

SPEAKER_33: freeburg's gone yeah i mean it's just very weird i mean i think on a race issue this is like the worst possible thing to happen because we do have instances of asian hate of you know people being beaten up before the color of their skin for their sexual preference whatever it is and then this

SPEAKER_16: person is so mentally deranged that they set up a biased race attack apparently am i correct that he did this in order to get sympathy so that his acting career would do better or do we not

SPEAKER_490: apparently he was like negotiating his contract and he's worried about getting cut from the show

SPEAKER_492: what he was on the show empire and he's worried about getting cut from cut from the show but look

SPEAKER_372: i i to me so this is hold on explain that to me he's worried about getting cut from the show so the logic jump is if i had a race attack they can't fire me no he played the sympathy card sympathy i got it yeah i just want to make sure i'm understanding it and i'm not crazy he made himself into a cause

SPEAKER_00: celeb of the woke left this is in early 2019 when everyone was worried about you know trump so he claimed that he was beaten by two maga you know haters who tied a noose around his neck and poured bleach on him i'm not sure what the bleach was about i think maybe that was no no no no don't

SPEAKER_496: even white or something he said what it was two white dudes okay and then and then at one point

SPEAKER_498: he in the in the interview when they he the interrogators or the investigators were pressing

SPEAKER_431: are you sure they were white he said well you know i don't want to be racist light and then it turned out the two dudes were black like i mean like from yeah yeah he hired them

SPEAKER_206: he hired them and he paid them by check so this is not like a master criminal

SPEAKER_00: it's no lex luther no no but but look i i i think this story what it's really about it's not just a story about one sociopath doing this crazy thing it's really more a media story this is about how the media covered it they loved it and i think wall-to-wall news wall-to-wall coverage and i think this reflects all the worst qualities of the media number one rush to judgment they immediately bought into the story and they were attacking the trump administration for creating the hate and the maggot people so there was a feeding frenzy number two there was no and this goes with the rush to judgment they didn't do any fact checking whatsoever right because the story was too good it fit all their priors just like the rolling stone ivermectin hoax about you know the maggot people you know in oklahoma hospitals or whatever that story was too good and rolling stone and rachel maddow bought no fact check on the hoax hook line sinker because they didn't do the fact checking and then number three no corrections none of these sources ever apologized did the mea culpa issued a

SPEAKER_301: correction there's just an eerie silence coming out of all the sources who pumped the story like crazy

SPEAKER_118: you have to uh nick please put it in the show notes the there's got to be a youtube clip of

SPEAKER_431: the chapelle joke around juicy smolle and the basic joke is like every colored person stayed silent all the blacks all the browns and the joke the punchline of the joke is because we were all like

SPEAKER_383: he's probably did it you know like why aren't you defending juicy smolle and the whole point is

SPEAKER_508: yeah he looks kind of guilty to us well i mean it's incredibly funny if you let's just play 15 seconds

SPEAKER_82: of this a deep link to his first interview i think this is his first full interview just play 10 seconds

SPEAKER_513: of that because this is of juicy smolle yeah i noticed the rope around my neck and i started screaming

SPEAKER_516: and i said there's a rope around my neck did you get any kind of description of the attack i gave a

SPEAKER_513: body description and i you know because i saw this but and you know right here or whatever but i didn't see i can't tell you what color their eyes were and i did not see anything except the second person i saw running away and the first person yeah i saw saw his stature i gave the description as best as i could you have to understand also that it's chicago in winter people can wear ski masks and nobody's gonna

SPEAKER_116: question that it's just so deranged i mean the poker towels are flying off of him he's like thinking

SPEAKER_444: does this make him a bad actor actor i just want to know david as a producer are you hiring him now or

SPEAKER_522: not yeah maybe maybe i will hire him actually he finally got his emmy oh my god sorry too soon but

SPEAKER_00: the crazy thing here is that a lot of people all the liberal elites basically fell for this hook line and sinker president biden vice president the lesson is they all jumped the gun on this and were basically denouncing they bought into the story they were denouncing this racist attack and

SPEAKER_16: blaming trump and the administration for the new policy i wait until the court case is over to comment on these crazy things i don't want to comment on a twitter i don't want to like it or retweet it we have a justice system if this stuff is hitting the justice system just let the process happen because right the velocity of social media is such that we talk about algorithms all the time

SPEAKER_280: that if something like this happens it's going to become the number one story and a billion people are going to see it and then there's fallout and the fallout here is it just divides everybody shut up

SPEAKER_528: and wait the same thing happened on the written house case right absolutely massive rush to judgment

SPEAKER_00: they accused this kid of being a white supremacist attacker who basically like a school shooter it turned out to be totally false but you know the court systems have been doing an amazing job when you think about the cases i think the courts have been on quite a run in i think contradistinction to the media keeps getting it wrong right so you think about it so derek chauvin convicted jesse smollett convicted the uh the three killers of ahmaud arbery convicted okay rightfully so but kyle rittenhouse not guilty kenneth walker not guilty this was briona taylor's boyfriend who killed a cop when they killed her remember they busted the apartment he basically um pledged uh his case he pledged self-defense because he didn't know who was shooting at them and he he got off just yeah he got

SPEAKER_301: off just like how rittenhouse did so you know people i think are jumping the gun on a lot of

SPEAKER_201: these cases there's actually an enormous amount of justice america is an incredible country we don't

SPEAKER_70: get enough credit for that that mostly finds a way to get to the right place obviously there are moments where we completely get it wrong but david to your point those are some really powerful examples in modern history with a lot of scrutiny where um our peers american jurors found the way to get to the

SPEAKER_537: right answer yeah it feels great yeah bravo to america bravo to those folks good job good job by the

SPEAKER_197: way the briona taylor example is a really wonderful example and the ahmaud arbery thing was really important to me as well thank you for bringing it up i appreciate it yeah well you know because because

SPEAKER_00: i think you know when the rittenhouse verdict came down a lot of people were saying well look if if kyle rittenhouse had been black he wouldn't have gotten this self-defense as justice well kenneth

SPEAKER_02: walker actually that case was a self-defense case and he killed a not a single article in the mainstream

SPEAKER_154: media to basically actually defend kenneth walker yeah and he he actually shot a cop right and but

SPEAKER_301: and he still got off because when they bust into that apartment the jury thought it was reasonable very

SPEAKER_70: very tragic self-defense very tragic that that that that the officer died and i'm sorry but i really hope that kenneth walker has a a really amazing productive life from here yeah i mean it's a

SPEAKER_124: terrible situation a lesson of like are these no knock war warrants even warranted like what what

SPEAKER_70: are we doing like i don't know but necessary if kenneth walker lives a productive life and does good in the world from here he does a small amount to kind of make up for that injustice of brianna taylor and probably you know kind of create some positive karma for the family of the officer that passed away

SPEAKER_33: and that's the best that you can do we just be great if as americans we could start looking at

SPEAKER_16: these issues and saying like justice is worth pursuing the truth is worth pursuing and we're all

SPEAKER_331: in it together the united states like we talked about the economy also we got it right in places that

Chamath Palihapitiya: the elite coasts yeah kind of point to and look down on we got it right in places like georgia and deep

SPEAKER_70: parts of georgia you know and and and and i think that that's something for us to also think about it it is the a virulent strain of the liberal elite that really do judge the rest of the country for being in a way that is actually not true they got it they got it right in kenosha georgia kentucky

SPEAKER_115: illinois just to be just to put it on the record we'll see you all next time on the all in podcast

SPEAKER_495: for the dictator rain man and the queen of quinoa see you all next time bye bye