SPEAKER_00: oh let me guess let me guess hit me i have some concepts here because that ad is for target it's a generic ad the copy up there was for some sort of technical memory it went by pretty quick but some memory technology hardware looked like discussion it was having with chat gpt so it's not a targeted ad it's an ad for target kind of keep going okay it says shop at target so here's what i think happened i think this person downloaded a chrome extension or some other third-party app that was inserting ads covertly or sneakily and that they wound up conflating that with open ai doing it and that's why it looks so weird now that wouldn't look weird if you were looking at a i don't know the drudge report and you start targeting you'd be like fine it doesn't make any sense if it was an ad from open ai their idea is to look at the memory and

SPEAKER_02: what you've searched for over and over and over again and it would be hyper targeted this week

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SPEAKER_08: all right everybody welcome back to this week in startups welcome back to twist i'm jason calacanis

SPEAKER_09: he's alex wilhelm and there is a um i guess some big news out of open ai they called a code red

SPEAKER_10: and now there's been some discussion of advertising so listen all right so there was a viral screenshot

SPEAKER_12: of someone's chat gpt conversation and jason i'm going to pull it up here on the screen take a look at this now if you were just looking at this without any context you would just see a normal chat conversation with an ai and then at the bottom there is a shop for home and groceries target module everyone thought hey this is an advertisement we're talking about open ai adding ads for some time now and so this was criticized pretty heavily it turns out however that that ad looking module oh let me

SPEAKER_00: guess let me guess hit me i have some concepts here because that ad is for target it's a generic ad the copy up there was for some sort of technical memory it went by pretty quick but some memory technology hardware it looked like discussion it was having with chat gpt so it's not a targeted ad it's an ad for target kind of keep going okay it says shop at target so here's what i think happened i think this person downloaded a chrome extension or some other third-party app that was inserting ads covertly or sneakily and that they wound up conflating that with open ai doing it and that's why it looks so weird now that wouldn't look weird if you were looking at a i don't know the drudge report and you saw a target ad you'd be like fine but it sticks out like a sore thumb so i think that it doesn't

SPEAKER_02: make any sense if it was an ad from open ai their idea is to look at the memory and what you've searched for over and over and over again then tell the ai given the history of alex and everything he's talking about you know 20 different advertisements would you serve to him and how would you make the message to him that would resonate and it would be hyper targeted okay so tell me what happens i love the

SPEAKER_12: hypothesis not entirely wrong i can't give you full points i'm going to show you a headline here jason that helps explain what we're seeing here okay this is from uh november 19th 2025 and it reads open ai and target partnered to bring new ai powered experiences across retail this is partially open ai doing work for target and also a target application that you can connect into inside of chat gpt so as far as we can tell this little module that you and i both think is an ad turns out is actually an invitation to connect to target inside of chat gpt you can now argue that that's an advertisement but open ai is

SPEAKER_09: taking the position that it's not it's an ad it's not a targeted ad it's in-house promotion it's an in-house ad so when you are working at the new york times and they have some extra ad inventory they might say hey check out our new podcast hey you know come to this times discussion whatever and so those are in-house ads so this is like an in-house ad yeah it's somewhere in between the two it wasn't

SPEAKER_12: a hacked ad no now let's talk about what the company said really briefly uh nick turley he runs chat gpt says quote i'm seeing a lot of confusion about ads rumors in chat gpt there are no live tests for ads and then also one of the companies uh exec said you know i agree that anything that feels like an ad needs to be handled with care and we fell short looping back jason to your point about code red he said we've turned off this kind of suggestion while we improve the model's precision the code red that open ai called was to improve chat gpt and it pushed back things like advertising so right now we are not seeing ads in open ai as we expected them to and i think that what they tried to do here was a partnership and a connection tool and it ended up just being sloppy and kind of gross which doesn't give me a ton of confidence jason in their uh product decisions to be honest this sounds to me

SPEAKER_00: like they don't have a person deputized to think about how advertising or in-house ads cross promotion should exist inside of the product so sometimes when you're running a company there'll be like two outfielders you know and okay you know one person's in left field one person's in centerfield and there's a shortstop and whatever the ball kind of is in between those three players and it just drops in between all three and they all look at each other and that's what happened here and what they really need to do is say hey call it when it's in the air so when somebody said hey we're gonna do this we have to get this target promotion up for christmas we have an obligation to them we sold it sam altman said it somebody you know if left field was the tech team and center field was the ux team and the shortstop was the business team somebody should have said i got it and they should have just shepherded it home full stop now what they're going to need to have is a partnerships coordinator who is just responsible for how this stuff looks in the end product they're over reacting to all this every time you insert ads into a product on a site like x or twitter or reddit or hacker news our industry is going to over respond and get all their you know hand-wringing etc it's coming folks and it's going to be awesome and if you want free chat gpt and you want to burn you know an h100 to make your funny memes somebody's got to pay for it and it's going to come from advertising my belief is the 75 of the revenue at open ai that's coming from consumers is going to go down to you know at least 50 in the next two years people are going to stop paying for these things when chat gpt was one of one people paid for it of course now that you have gemini grok you know and everything in between they're going to stop paying consumers are not going to pay for this it doesn't provide so much value that an average consumer will pay for it so then how will it be distributed it will be distributed by advertising because of the code red they called because the llm is falling behind gemini and other rock and claude are making better products and leapfrogging open ai they're in a panic mode because they realize they don't have a better mousetrap they have the same mousetrap as everybody else that everybody's mousetrap is getting five percent better every three months and in a situation like that they're going to need to actually get ads on faster if i was open ai i would be working to get ads on there faster and have it ready to go when they said they were pausing it or not focusing on it i call bs i call i think they're tripling down on it and having it ready so that the second somebody else puts ads in i.e google they'll have it ready to go because if they don't man it's going

SPEAKER_22: to be netscape all over again i brought up that analogy for the last couple of months can i ask

SPEAKER_12: a question about code reds and startups jason because we often think about startups as an idea you build a product you find product market fit you grow like hell eventually billions of dollars appear how often do startups need to call a code red like this and is that a weakness or is that something that you should use tactically inside of a startup to ensure that you don't kind of like get too lazy

SPEAKER_43: all right you want the candid version or you want the the real version the candid the real or the

SPEAKER_44: sugar-coated i want you to give me the one you would tell a founder on a phone call at 3 a.m

SPEAKER_10: so the way founders use this is to shock the system figure out who on the team is committed and

SPEAKER_09: who's not and as a way to get results quickly so if you call a code red and people are like oh you

SPEAKER_10: know i got a wedding this weekend oh you know i'm taking my kid to little league uh oh you know i'm going to my aunt's funeral and they consider all the things in their life like a funeral their children

SPEAKER_48: their spouse whatever it is all of a sudden you're like okay here's the people who are hardcore and

SPEAKER_00: here's the people who are going to their you know second cousin's funeral or whatever so that is and most people will consider this dark there is like sort of a hardcore test implied in it code red figure out who's hardcore figure out who's not and you don't have to say it it's not like you have to be like yeah these three people they're not bringing it it's like they're not here this weekend okay everybody knows who didn't show up this weekend during the code red there's that piece to it there's also the piece to it hey you got competitors you could get displaced and you want to prove to the team that through deliberate hard work everybody rowing in the right direction we can fix a problem and that builds confidence so there's the confidence building aspect of this there's the reality of competition aspect of this and then there's the are you actually hardcore yeah are you in this like a jedi or pick your analogy that no worldly possessions relationships are more important than the mission of this company now that is going to ring to a normal well-adjusted person as insane you know like if aoc is hearing this and she's like what like why would the union allow this like this this is

SPEAKER_02: like hardcore stuff and that's what sam's doing he's trying to figure out who's hardcore and if this

SPEAKER_55: squad is actually going to get them there we test out a ton of ai tools behind the scenes at my

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SPEAKER_62: podcast i didn't think jason on this show you were going to point out that aoc is a uh is a normal and well-adjusted person but i appreciate you pointing that out for everybody no no i'm not saying she

SPEAKER_48: is i'm just saying for people who like would represent you know normalcy and it's it's so hard

SPEAKER_10: to talk to like two groups of people people who do startups or are in cltm6 extreme athletes like

SPEAKER_22: people that have a singular singular focus people versus general focus people exactly so i'm just saying

SPEAKER_27: aoc or like the union might be like wait we're coming in on a we're staying late on saturday night to clean the starbucks and make it spick and span and we're going to have like a bond raising or in

SPEAKER_09: my case every wednesday night i have a management team dinner and it starts at 5 30 p.m texas time

SPEAKER_10: so at the end of our day i bring in dinner bring a nice sushi whatever the team wants we talk for

SPEAKER_48: two hours it goes from 5 30 to 7 30. so hey yeah you're missing dinner with your family your loved ones you might give up yoga if you go to yoga after work whatever it's like don't work at a startup

SPEAKER_10: for or a venture firm for a maniac who says hey yeah every wednesday you got to give up that day you got to be late if you have something you got to tell me why you're missing the management team meeting it's like it should be a little intimidating for a person to like tell their

SPEAKER_71: boss i'm going to go to yoga and miss the management team meeting like there's yoga classes all the time i think also if you opt into being an executive at a startup by you know applying for the job

SPEAKER_12: and getting it you are essentially seeding some of your personal life to that role the only thing that i would throw in here is a caveat is i do always create an exception for people with kids who are sick or whatever but apart from that i think that makes perfect sense sick kids make

SPEAKER_73: sense yeah yeah and if it's a life event for a kid like they're in the play like you got to go to

SPEAKER_22: opening night of the play oh for sure but like i would put the uh the taking care of your children's

SPEAKER_12: life events and in yoga entirely on different ends of the barbell jason i have the tweet here from michael burry about opening i'd be the next netscape i think it's worth reading just so everyone has to quote everyone that knows anything knows this open ai is the next netscape doomed and hemorrhaging cash microsoft is trying to keep it afloat while keeping it off balance sheet and sucking out the ip not wrong so why do they keep getting funded the whole industry needs a 500 billion dollar ipo asap essentially arguing jason that there's been so much private capital put into this firm that if it goes

SPEAKER_22: down then everyone's hosed i think is this point you know i gotta think about that if open ai had their

SPEAKER_10: valuation stumble and was forced to do a down round at 250 billion what would happen i think it would

SPEAKER_09: be a shock to the system for short for three or four days stock market go down 10 percent 20 and then i think what would happen is people would take out a chart i made a chart i had kabira on my team make

SPEAKER_00: a chart of open ai versus the world open ai versus the world in terms of market share what people will realize is the first person up the hill takes the arrows and they will process in the i would put this

SPEAKER_02: at a less than 10 chance so and i'm not rooting for it less people think when i'm being critical of open ai it's like i got some axe to grind or whatever i'm friendly with sam i would consider him a friend i mean we don't go to like dinner socially but we've known july for 20 years so i would consider us more than just acquaintances i think we have like somewhere between an acquaintance and a friendship

SPEAKER_09: what i would say is there's a 10 chance that could happen they could stumble and there's a 90 chance they'll just keep soaring and it could be flat or up but the reality is first person up the hill takes the arrows when you have a hundred percent of the market the only way to grow and when you have these competitors the only place you can go is down let's go through the competitive set that they're facing

SPEAKER_10: elon musk it's not a competitor you want to have but that's like having a competitor like terminator 2 arnold's resident repeat competitor you don't want that competitor trust me ask anybody

SPEAKER_09: who's had that competitor it is the nightmare competitor then by the way you have microsoft

SPEAKER_10: and google us and zuckerberg as competitors so those three are the four horsemen of the apocalypse

SPEAKER_80: like if you are sam walman elon satya sundar zuckerberg this is like dario well yeah and then

SPEAKER_10: let's add some others you got dario from anthropic but i wouldn't say dario has the reputation the chip stack of those individuals right he's strong but he would be peers with oh i i see your point yeah

SPEAKER_00: okay okay so i'm saying those four are like truly scary because they've built trillion dollar companies those are the trillion dollar competitors that's a very scary thing now in what world do those four and let's throw in anthropic let's put those five up as you're those are your five competitors in what world do those five get less than 10 percent of the market no no world that i've ever heard of or conceived of thank you now let's pull up this chart we made everybody's seen the like trending version of this chart which showed you know three years ago was a stacked bar chart and it showed all the different ribbons of and i think it went to present so you see the one two three four five six seven eight eighth bar over is present day right with 32 of the market being other than chat gpt and 68 of the market being chat gpt now if you go just to three years ago and two years ago and even 18 months ago that was a market that was either 100 president or 95 open ai chat gpt today they have

SPEAKER_02: two thirds of the market pretty impressive right having two thirds of the market so you have to ask incredibly impressive incredibly impressive however you yourself said those five competitors there's

SPEAKER_09: no world in which they don't get 10 each so if 10 each would be 50 of the market so what i just did was said okay let's agree on that and go to 2026 2027 2028 and 2029 i'm going to estimate in somewhere between 27 and 28 you will see chat gpt go to 45 to 55 in other words less than 50 of the market this is percentages and market share what this doesn't take into account is that the pie is growing rapidly so even though they only have less than 50 of the market they will still have a much larger business these two things will be true at the same time but what it means is the market when

SPEAKER_00: chat gpt were to have a stumble or you know have headwinds where they were growing slowly it's going to be a shock to the system until people go oh this is bigger than anything we've ever seen before okay we're gonna we're gonna keep investing in this yeah so i would say michael burry pointing out the netscape analogy yeah like i did super valid but it doesn't mean that amazon google yahoo and facebook and linkedin don't grow as well during that time period and the number of users online

SPEAKER_44: all right jason here's the charge you wanted it shows generative ai traffic share over time starting 12

SPEAKER_12: months ago working forward to today as you kind of intimated we do see a decline in open ai's market share and the biggest growth here is from gemini which has done fantastically well and we can also see a decline in deep seeks market share but consistent erosion of open ai's market leadership

SPEAKER_71: through a different lens all right very good from some data provider online who i will read um

SPEAKER_10: this is this is with pace and love to all sas companies trying to slip in data to get customers

SPEAKER_22: your content marketing skills have no power here well i hey i you saw you saw slack today i took that to heart i'm out i'm out here shooting stuff down left and right this is what happens when you have a

SPEAKER_101: podcast these the pr people content marketing people are so good now they're like oh my god we have an incredible data set we want you to talk about us on your podcast and our sas product i'm like

SPEAKER_12: not going to fall for it but we'll use your data we have a bet here just to wrap this up we have a bet that we put in place on august 15th 2025 open ai advertising uh launched in chat gpt 12 months less or more i took the under you took the over uh what's interesting though is as we look at our

SPEAKER_103: bet with this wait wait say it again what was the what was the date when open ai would have ads

SPEAKER_12: august 15th was the start of the bet one year time window do they have ads before or after that 12 month reset and i said it'll take less than a year for ads you said it'll take more than a year for ads okay we had this new news about the code red and so forth so i thought for today's poly market we

SPEAKER_15: should look at what the market thinks about the chances of there being ads in chat gpt you should be

SPEAKER_02: making an argument here i mean as your council that was an ad it was an in-house ad but it was an ad but it's not ads in chat gpt intellectually you know jason the day i pick a fight with you it's

SPEAKER_12: gonna be over more than a hundred dollars i'll tell you i think no but i mean it would be an

SPEAKER_02: angle shot for sure but this is what people do in these prop bets they're like technically speaking

SPEAKER_107: it is an ad did you see what happened to uh alan keating at the uh hustler live game with uh senor

SPEAKER_81: itself yeah he got up and left because they were being little uh because they tried to angle shoot him on not turning his cards over during a prop bet and he did did you know squarespace is our

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SPEAKER_121: domain purchase that's squarespace.com slash twist we're keeping the bets at this week in startups.com slash bets you can always find our bets and hopefully we have the sandeep mantra ones because those are all going to be coming to those are for big big money all right so here's the uh the latest

SPEAKER_12: from our friends over at polymarket and there's two ways to look at this data jason uh there is will there be ads in chat gpt by december 31st the market has decided that that's not going to happen currently at four percent and dropping over four hundred thousand dollars in volume there what is interesting though is the fact that they added this march 31st timeline now there's not a lot of betting yet on the extended time frame for will there be ads in chat gpt by then the end of q1 but still not a lot of optimism here people really don't think it's coming so these folks think that it's going to be at least q2 before we see advertisements in chat gpt and you always ask what are the terms of resolution and what matters is the market will resolve to yes if open ai integrates ads into any of their major gpts and that is made available by the date and critically this is what i wanted to check in on limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region will

SPEAKER_44: qualify so this is actually pretty i would say generous like if they launch ads in like you know

SPEAKER_73: bangladesh then that counts yeah so this is a really interesting market i think the challenge is

SPEAKER_00: going to be and this is like a game of chicken whoever launches ads first also will take a bunch of heat

SPEAKER_10: for putting ads in their product so if you add ads the first person to put it on a website got a bunch

SPEAKER_00: of heat i think it was wired putting the zima ad up you know a lot of people to claim different ads first time on the internet putting ads into rss feeds putting ads into podcasts it was all very controversial putting we put ads into blogs we had the first ad in a podcast on the auto blog podcast people did do the hand-wringing as i've talked about earlier but it does degrade the consumer

SPEAKER_10: experience marginally so you have to give to get so what they should say is if you allow ads you get

SPEAKER_09: deep research you get unlimited searches you get pro you get pro if you turn on ads and you just have to give something at that moment in time so in this great game of chicken we'll see what happens

SPEAKER_27: i think if i am chat gpt clawed or even google when you do a deep research you know how it says using deep research for this come back in a minute we'll send you a message like they'll even send you a notification on your phone yeah that's a perfect time to say and your deep research is being brought to you by and then just put a little thing brought to you by your friends at linkedin jobs chipotle click here to start an uber eats order whatever it is you know doordash and you can make that based upon previous searches so that is what i think will be the winning one this is called an interstitial in the business so a lot of times you'll see websites now you click on a link and before it lets you go to the link it shows you a survey or like a box and then you have to hit the x or skip those kind of interstitials force you to just consider the advertiser for a microsecond or in i guess youtube's case it counts down from five seconds that's what's coming folks and why not

SPEAKER_00: if you can get deep research for free that's a and it takes a couple of minutes anyway it's kind of a win-win-win the advertiser's not putting you out because you're you're getting the deep research for free the you you know they're going to make a nickel or a penny from claude for they're going to be

SPEAKER_12: able to charge for that etc so i also think that the consumers are willing to take such an insane ad load in general like if you think about the the ad mix on professional sports on amazon's ecommerce marketplace on youtube streaming service people take a lot of ads and they still use the product so a lot of money on the floor there next up on the docket we're going to talk about warner brothers discovery covered it on friday a lot of breaking news i asked our dear friend lon harris editorial director here at launch to join us lon where are you at i'm right here this is great uh the

SPEAKER_130: deal's closed as we uh it looks like netflix won and the deal's over everybody's very happy about it

SPEAKER_27: the people who competed all said hey great competition you won i congratulate you on the win

SPEAKER_135: and mazel tov good luck we've moved the stranger things kids into the water tower next to the animaniacs we're all done everything is no alex didn't get that one see the animaniacs on that old cartoon show

SPEAKER_139: alex they lived in the wb water tower in the studio so i'm joking just old enough to recall animaniacs but i wasn't allowed to watch a lot of tv growing up it was more jesus i'm joking that now netflix is

SPEAKER_135: going to jam the stranger things kids in there with the animaniacs because they're owned by the same

SPEAKER_62: couple that might not work out because president trump has weighed in yes there's there's a lot of

SPEAKER_135: resistance going on i mean obviously from the public there was a lot of outcry people are very

SPEAKER_137: worried they're you know they're not going to be able to see their wb movies in theaters anymore their netflix is going to cancel theatrical distribution for all time but it seems that some of these concerns are being shared by our wonderful terrific amazing praiseworthy american president hodis has jumped into the ring and said that he could share some of these antitrust concerns here's the quote i have a lot of respect for him i think he's talking about ted sarandes i have a lot of respect for him he's a great person he's done one of the greatest jobs in the history of movies and other things but it is a big market share there's no question about it it could be a problem and then another quote they have a very big market share and when they have warner brothers that share goes up a lot i'll be involved in the decision that's the key part of the takeaway he said that trump said specifically i'll be involved in the decision so he's putting himself in the middle of this negotiation a lot of people are reading that as very favorable to paramount because of course the ellison family sort of aligned themselves with donald trump so people are saying if he's going to play favorites he may just throw this to the ellison's over at paramount however however as if things weren't complicated enough there's also been some drama over the weekend between our president and the people of paramount uh he's he's not happy with them over a 60 minutes uh segment that aired uh he feels like uh the real problem with the show however wasn't the low iq they had marjorie taylor green on 60 minutes trump did not like that uh so he's saying but he's saying even the real problem with the show however wasn't the low iq trader marjorie taylor green it was the new ownership of 60 minutes paramount would allow a show like this to air all caps they are no better than the old ownership who just paid me millions of dollars for fake reporting about your favorite president me since they bought it 60 minutes has actually gotten worse oh well far worse things can happen so so now

SPEAKER_138: chaos i mean is trump going to side with netflix who he's praising is a great you forgot you forgot

SPEAKER_12: the critical last thing for jason to respond to paramount also today jason launched a 30 per share all cash offer for the whole company not just the part that netflix wants to buy so we have a hostile

SPEAKER_153: bid i was gonna get oh they're offering a lot more money is it a lot more money explain to me like

SPEAKER_27: the difference in the deals if you can it is more money it is more money and they're willing to buy

SPEAKER_137: the cable assets correct here's the quote from ellison he told cnbc we are offering shareholders 17.6 billion dollars more cash than the deal they currently have signed up with netflix and we believe when they see what is currently on our offer then that's what they'll vote for and then of course they're also suggesting paramount still believes they will have an easier time getting through these regulatory hurdles than netflix will because their businesses are more aligned and less directly competitive paramount plus isn't the chief rival for netflix the way hbo max is uh so that's kind of the or overall argument i've got so much to unpack here i know to bring it all into the numbers the paramount offer 108.4 billion for all of wvd the netflix offer 82.7 billion just for the warner brothers

SPEAKER_139: film and tv studio and those are both enterprise valuations not all right so number one i'm an idiot

SPEAKER_10: because i j traded warner brothers lost a little bit of money then sold it to bank the loss last year so that i could offset it against some gains i had and i missed the hail mary and it would have been i think a double up for me at the current share price could have 2x in three years but i don't invest in

SPEAKER_27: companies for hail mary outcomes but here it is there's a hail mary outcome if you're not listening

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SPEAKER_02: putting me aside there is a concept here of an auction and what should happen next is there should be an auction and the auction should go to stick with me here fellas because it's going to get complex the highest bidder by definition that means the person who puts the biggest number up so we've had a bunch of this back and forth i'm tired of this story and this is all meaningless it's meaningful to people who work in hollywood who are directly impacted i get it but the truth is you are all rearranging a bunch of deck chairs on the titanic thank you or you know insert another analogy here because total minutes on youtube tick tock instagram dwarf all of this nonsense this is a bunch of rich people trading magazines 20 years ago this is a bunch of rich nepo babies and i don't mean that in a derogatory way i mean when i say nepo babies what i mean is people i'm extremely jealous of because i had to build this goddamn chip stack if i could have started with a hundred billion dollar if i started with a hundred million dollar chip stack like trump or ellis this ellison kid man i would

SPEAKER_27: i would be a trillionaire you weren't playing with oracles uh bankroll anyway i'm extremely jealous of the chip stacks of nepo babies but what i will say for the nepo baby crowd is like sure this is

SPEAKER_48: exactly what happened the the rich widows the nepo babies they all love to bid on the previous shiny objects they love to own the atlantic they wanna buy the washington post or actually bezos bought that

SPEAKER_10: but you get my point they love to buy the famous restaurant the famous movie studio they're always looking in the rearview mirror why we're all status seeking creatures some of us seek status by being blue-collar hard workers who make it like myself other ones are like i'm gonna go buy my daddy's or my mommy's love by buying the thing they love that's what's happening here folks i hate

SPEAKER_137: to get all freudian on you i do think there's one element we're overlooking which is netflix is a much healthier company in 2025 paramount can make this deal but they're basically just putting themselves in a very very deep hole of debt taking this money from you know sovereign wealth funds and red point capital anywhere they could get it uh whereas netflix i mean they are also taking on loans and they've got banks on board to help them but they're a company that can afford to just sort of exactly so i do think that might be part of it if you were warner brothers and you were looking for who can support the long-term health of this tv and film studio i do think there's an argument for netflix over paramount which is just going to end up probably scrapping everything and selling it

SPEAKER_09: off for parts anyway here's what i'm gonna say from now on there should be a 60-day pre-vetting approval process for antitrust this is when i'm president jason i run for president i like it i'm gonna lean a con this and what i'm gonna say is from now on we're offering for the low low price of 25

SPEAKER_02: million dollars your ability to get your deals pre-vetting so if you are google and you want to buy youtube if you're adobe and you want to buy figma if you're adobe and you want to sell photoshop if you're google and you want to sell youtube we will tell you who is going to trigger an antitrust deep review and who is not and we are going to make it easier for these transactions to go through so you don't need breakup fees you just need to pay the government to put people on it and then what we'll do with the 25 million is we'll hire four independent you know assessors of this who will write four reports for five million dollars each we'll pull them from a pool of you know 50 possible intelligent people we'll collate that we'll share it with the public because it's got to be in the public's best interest and ernst and young and mckinsey and boston consulting group and whoever wants to write these reports can write really thorough reports of what they predict will be in the best interest

SPEAKER_178: of consumers this is a great idea this is like it's tsa pre-check but for m a deals yes yes i'm creating clear clear your deal tsa pre-check for your deal now what this will do is reduce drama and then it will

SPEAKER_02: take out the favoritism because the decision will be based upon a collection of reports by really intelligent people and based on a very simple test what will be in the best interest of consumers and competition that's it that's it and some smart person mckinsey might say you know what when comparing the viewership of this to youtube tick tock and you do the full minutes consumed by generations they'll say listen when these boomers are gone and these gen xers are gone it's not going to look good for these companies like this is not where the competition is here's where minutes are being spent okay so that fixes the regulatory thing which and we're going to have an auction and the auction will have terms to it it'll go from five bidders to best three bidders to best two and you know we're going to run an auction process winner wins that's it who runs the

SPEAKER_127: auction in this model on this model you you would hire alan and company or some bank to run the auction

SPEAKER_12: on behalf catalyst or whatever okay you were like we're going to have intelligent people these five and then you started listing off ernst and young and mckenzie and that's where you lost me i mean

SPEAKER_62: that's giving consultants way too much credit i just wanted to make them no no no these consultants

SPEAKER_101: are actually very good at these kind of things they this is something where they do a great job

SPEAKER_27: because they can look historically and they know inside these businesses really well like they understand the nuances of these existing businesses where mckinsey or boston consulting group might be have a more challenging time it's what we do in founder land like hey we're going to create this disruptive thing called robin hood and it's going to you know destroy all these you know trading companies they'll be like wait a second we don't have the data on that because it doesn't exist you know that's where venture capitalists have an advantage they actually have an advantage on venture capitalists and folks like private equity people do because they understand existing assets so well because they probably have worked with them or in them so somebody like bcg has probably been inside

SPEAKER_48: of disney doing 27 different projects in the last 10 years they've spent they've done 15 projects for

SPEAKER_27: netflix they understand those kind of the mechanics so that's where they would actually do a pretty good job and then you could have futurists you could say hey i'm gonna hire kevin kelly a futurist and give him and his consulting group a million dollars to do their take on it you can have a lot of fun with that and really do a thorough job that is that takes away it's lena khan leaning people towards this

SPEAKER_48: or biden or this you know combo of you know liberal lunatics you know who are biased or it's trump anointing people who or it's obama who gave people a netflix deal or this person gave obama a 10 million dollar podcast deal or a 20 million dollar book deal the clinton's got this deal or you know you know

SPEAKER_27: everybody's getting these deals from the media companies we need to make these groups more independent and we need to have them answer not to the executive branch but to the people i'm jason calacanis i'm running to be your president in 2028 i hope i have your vote and i approve this message yeah there's only one thing left here the final thing that's left here is president trump's comments and trying to interpret them he's going to comment on the failed news any chance he gets let's take

SPEAKER_00: this 60 minutes that's just him grinding 60 minutes and you know working the refs whatever like anybody else does but he does particularly well and he does it in a pretty comical way

SPEAKER_27: let's put aside that and let's go to just his very granular comments here because i do think people

SPEAKER_09: don't give him enough credit uh for the things he says and you have to get past some of your biases here uh or one's biases towards him that he's just riffing he's not riffing there's a couple things embedded here i noticed i have a lot of respect for him ted sarandos he's a great person he's done the greatest job he's done one of the greatest jobs in the history of movies or other things praise

SPEAKER_10: a very influential media channel that he actually knows is going to win this so he's giving him his praise giving him his flowers why gotta work with him hey and netflix is

SPEAKER_152: going to give him a documentary series when he gets out just like they gave it to everybody else well maybe maybe amazon melania's documentary is coming to prime video so there's going to be some

SPEAKER_02: perfect there's going to be some bitters i know but what he's doing here is he's prepping netflix to do a similar correct right he wants to keep them in the game absolutely very smart but it's big market share there's no question about it it could be a problem that's actually accurate if you're not considering tick tock and youtube it is a lot of market share of the old thing which represents like

SPEAKER_00: half the number of minutes now or a third of the number of minutes and some percentage of the revenue their share is going to go up a lot i'll be involved in this decision this is the key he's not supposed to be involved in the decision like that creates a legal out for anybody like if he

SPEAKER_48: were to give it to paramount and he were involved in it then you've got the lawsuit of all lawsuits netflix can come in and say listen he said it right here by the way people aren't watching the law

SPEAKER_10: fair going on but he did a similar thing where he scuttled his own case against comey and

SPEAKER_27: letitia by saying we're going to go after them i don't know what his exact quote was there but

SPEAKER_02: he basically said we're going to do this now there is a concept here that we can't have a prejudicial justice system by saying those things he's created the ultimate easy way to have a case dismissed

SPEAKER_201: the president of the united states the most powerful man in the world directed the prosecution of letitia

SPEAKER_137: james and comey i mean if you're thinking of that that tweet that he sent or that's true social

SPEAKER_135: message to pam bondy there's there's ambiguity some people think that he did that accidentally and it was meant to be a direct message there are no accidents there was further reporting law

SPEAKER_139: and that it was actually a mistake you mentioned it as a dm okay i don't think it is i don't believe i'm

SPEAKER_121: by for a minute but i'll say there's no way he makes that mistake even if it was a mistake

SPEAKER_21: he said plenty of other things about going after them he said before the election i'll be your retribution we're going to put all these democrats in jail and that is why those cases

SPEAKER_48: recently got cancelled like it's the easiest out in the world or it's among the reasons these

SPEAKER_27: things got cancelled or got cancelled because he he put it in a lawyer without having them approved properly or whatever so ah lindsey halligan yeah it's it's all prejudicial kind of situation

SPEAKER_02: i think he's doing that on purpose here i think he just wants this thing to be over he's saying he's going to be involved in it that basically makes it like okay we just got to give this to netflix get this thing done boom it's done it's going to netflix there there is a family the ellison family who bought from the other family at that private transaction that family got to make that decision because they were the primary shareholders in this case the primary shareholders are not a family it's the public and pension funds etc which makes it super easy high is bitter best offer and that's what this is going to go to now if the ellisons have made the best offer then this could get reconsidered i guess i don't know if this is locked up but the board opted to go for

SPEAKER_208: netflix but now ellison is trying to basically do a hostile takeover go directly to the shareholders you're getting screwed you should go with my deal instead and we

SPEAKER_153: will see what happens the other possibility is netflix made this offer they got that 5.8 billion

SPEAKER_27: dollar fee to for the breakup and maybe they realized like hey okay i guess we're not going to get through antitrust or maybe the chance we're not going to get through this antitrust and so yeah

SPEAKER_152: let him outbid himself and overpay for the asset there was a puck news piece that suggested

SPEAKER_135: that this is all elaborate game theory by netflix they knew they were going to get rejected they didn't think they were going to make the acquisition go through but you tie up your main rival in the

SPEAKER_137: streaming marketplace for a year and a half two years while every total distraction they can't

SPEAKER_210: get acquired by anyone else they can't acquire anyone else yes you're sort of freezing them out

SPEAKER_137: for a year or two while you continue growing expanding there are people in hollywood who think that's what's going on and this is just netflix throwing a wrench in the work and if you happen to get it great win-win yeah you either pick up your chief rival or you tie them up for two years

SPEAKER_12: distracting everybody while you grow just a clarification netflix pays the 5.8 billion dollars

SPEAKER_21: if the deal falls apart yeah that's what i'm saying like so they may at some point want to like not have to deal with that so they in other words in the game theory they create chaos they get

SPEAKER_27: their top competitor distracted exactly we're and if the other party wins they don't have to pay the

SPEAKER_152: breakup fee and if they win they they assume they soak up hbo max their chief rival so it's win-win

SPEAKER_21: that's all they want they want hbo max and they want the dc characters that's that's my theory that's

SPEAKER_134: the harry potter there's a lot there's a lot yeah i mean harry potter's nice i guess yeah and they're

SPEAKER_152: making that new hbo show the lone sopranos you know it's a lot of stuff there's yeah ted sarandos would

SPEAKER_27: like that they did model you could tell me if i'm wrong or not did they not model netflix when they

SPEAKER_137: first went out as hbo prestige netflix would cite casey boy's stuff at hbo as like the north star and you could tell when you look at left like house of cards that initial pack of shows ozark they were obviously basing it on prestige tv from hbo places like amc you know that that was what they were aiming

SPEAKER_12: for how did it become is that cake like have you seen that show when they have to guess if the thing

SPEAKER_135: is cake or not how did we go they figured out and this is they brought in bella bajaria who now runs content for for netflix uh and she was like the the real sort of figurehead behind this realization

SPEAKER_137: a lot of people are putting on netflix in the background while they're on their phone while they're cleaning while they're doing other stuff and that a lot of the stuff that does the best on netflix is that kind of background viewing it doesn't not everything has to be squid game some things people just like to kind of leave on while they're doing other stuff it's very low impact and those are a lot of the biggest shows emily and paris ginny and georgia even like bridgerton it's like pretty to look at it's not hard to follow you can check in and out and i i noticed too a lot of netflix original movies and even stranger things started doing this they signpost constantly in the so every time they get somewhere new they're like well here we are the state fair where we said we had to go investigate that clue you found because they know you're kind of checking in and out you're on

SPEAKER_121: this is because of dual screen because of two screen viewing people playing chess which i find myself

SPEAKER_94: doing a chess alert scrolling tick tock i forget to pause and then i was doing this with landman

SPEAKER_27: last night i was taking a bath my back was hurt and i'm watching landman and i got a chess alert and i move over and i'm like oh my god what am i doing like this is like such a great performance happening in this latest episode of landman with that old guy um sam elliott and i'm like i'm missing

SPEAKER_10: the sam elliott performance of the season so i basically pulled it back 10 minutes put my notifications off i was like i need to actually soak this in so to speak there's your explanation

SPEAKER_48: for like that's why so much netflix content is that kind of is it cake stuff so annoying yeah this is why i think they should have gotten cnn because you would keep if you had cnn they would have it running

SPEAKER_134: constantly they just don't want to touch politics news and politics i think especially because the

SPEAKER_208: international so much of their viewing is overseas all these different markets i think they don't want to have to worry about customizing and individualizing that content for all these that's already

SPEAKER_27: been done so what they should do is they should figure out who was running cnn back in the day when it was just straight reporting and they didn't have opinion stuff and roundtables if they went to straight reportage hey we're here in baghdad things are blowing up bbc has changed a lot but

SPEAKER_135: this used to be bbc too in like the 90s when you'd watch bbc news it was very like here's an anchor and here's the news and here's another news story and it was very matter of fact yeah there was nobody with

SPEAKER_107: an opinion it's expensive to have you need to have middle east bureaus and you need to have a bureau in beirut and you need to have stringers and camera crews but you don't need to give anderson cooper 25

SPEAKER_241: million that's true or keep sending stanley pucci to italy to wander around for a few months well no

SPEAKER_02: but let's call it what it is i think actually sometimes you gotta zig where people you gotta

SPEAKER_245: zig and zag here when i am running disney i'll buy cnn or i'll launch a news network presidency first

David Friedberg: studio ahead first yes i'm gonna do two jobs elon's got two jobs you you will own abc news studio when

SPEAKER_02: you have disney perfect i will make abc news abc news will be abc and abcn will have just reportage

SPEAKER_101: anybody has a personality gt fo you could have a little personality yeah we don't want to hear

SPEAKER_02: your opinion so you just want to hear the news the most personality allow would be alex and you got to be under alex in personality i don't want any i'm the mendoza line for commentary yes yes i would like

SPEAKER_133: them to have less personality as a robot oh man van jones you're out the door man sorry no van jones

SPEAKER_48: forget it van jones first guy enough he's he's got insights he's reconsidered things i don't want

SPEAKER_27: anybody your opinion is incredible for you to write down in your journal during your morning notes over coffee and at night you could namaste have your chamomile tea and write it down in your journal as well when you're on abcn your job is to report a fact i'm sorry and if the fact changes you report

SPEAKER_48: that fact yeah if anybody doesn't and by the way you're all getting paid the same goddamn salary here's the salary structure it's 150 000 a year bust your ass and every year you hear you get six percent more and that's it if you don't like it gtfo ms now is desk down the street go to ms now but can you

SPEAKER_245: imagine how amazing would be to turn on news and just have them tell you what's happening and they

SPEAKER_137: it's weird that every time a new person goes in to run a place like cnn or or cbs news they always say this is the plan like we're gonna get away from all this commentary and p talking heads arguing and we're gonna get back to more like practical here's what's going on current events news you could use and then it never quite seems to happen it always just becomes a different person's opinionated perspective

SPEAKER_44: in the same way lon that i think netflix ends up at is this cake i think cnn's obvious you know point of denouement is next up on our cnn panel right it's because it's easy it's cheap there's no prep required

SPEAKER_138: their new show is tony shalhoub traveling around the world tasting bread this is true well i mean that's

SPEAKER_27: why we have hg2 no no but alex is right if you get four talking heads with different opinions you have them scream at each other it used to get ratings it was a good ratings playbook and it was theoretically cheaper until megan kelly tucker anderson cooper these people became expensive these people came

SPEAKER_48: 25 million dollars a year i mean anderson cooper 20 million a year wolf blitzer was 15 jake tapper

SPEAKER_245: eight million i just asked producer claude no i think they've all been run down he's now john king uh erin burnett six million erin burnett six million yeah she's famous how about how about we get like

SPEAKER_02: i don't know the next erin burnett and if you're on air you get paid 150 000 a year and you're on for

SPEAKER_38: four minutes you tell us the facts and then you end up to the next person tell us the facts yeah no sounds good lon what are you watching what's your favorite streamer show right now oh wow tough tough

SPEAKER_135: choice uh you know i was i've been enjoying the it show on hbo max welcome to dairy but i don't know i feel like they might have they might have lost me this week it went pretty far outside uh the parameters but i am loving pluribus on apple tv uh that you've been skilling well yeah in the new year i asked lon on

SPEAKER_02: the friday show to come on and we're going to do a little thing at the end of the show where we go off duty and we're going to give you our takes on great media things for your weekend and pluribus is my pick as well listen have you watched this now yet alex or you have no nobody watch tv no i keep

SPEAKER_138: hearing about pluribus and so i'm actually to hear lawn recommended as well it's hybrid jason do you

SPEAKER_09: think that it is a metaphor for ai because that's what a lot of people i think it is simultaneously i know they said it isn't it is a metaphor for ai the singularity yeah socialism democracy and the

SPEAKER_134: end of the american empire all of these things wow yeah there's a lot there's a lot going on it's

SPEAKER_137: a really interesting perspective but once i started thinking about is this an allegory for ai a lot of stuff fits like the kind of the way that the humans talk to one another now has a very chat gpt kind of sensibility logical sycophantic right they're always like oh carol we love you so much

SPEAKER_81: that's such a great i want to help you there's a great idea let's workshop it yeah i mean it's it's always the same you know ai it's ai slop right to the world has become a form of ai slop in a way yeah

SPEAKER_00: it is ai slop and like one of the characters is living in the ultimate ai slop right in vegas it's unbelievable but i would say the protagonist to me represents america that i have a slightly

SPEAKER_10: different i think it represents personal freedom american exceptionalism self-determinism sure how messy it is and then the collective represents socialism i think it's also yeah i think that

SPEAKER_137: makes a lot of sense i think in a lot of ways it's just about that feeling of feeling alone the entire world is on board with something and you personally feel like you're not a market in i love that too the

SPEAKER_02: rugged individualism of like hey i still want to read a book i want to make my own breakfast yeah but

SPEAKER_137: even in a way like the feeling of being depressed or that feeling of being isolated where like the

SPEAKER_134: whole world is sort of feel right like that it's a very human thing and i think you could almost apply it to any scenario it's just about that emotional state of feeling this alien if they stick the landing

SPEAKER_09: in the next three weeks i think this is going to be one of the top five shows of the new century

SPEAKER_153: it's been it's been spectacular and it's coming back we already know it's coming back for season two

SPEAKER_00: well it has to come back i mean even if they fumbled it like lost did in the end but it's kind of like a better version of lost in some ways it's a more intellectually rigorous

SPEAKER_21: version of lost where lost they were like yeah let's just do something weird and they're like what it's a hit we thought we were gonna get cancelled like everything else they know the ending of this

SPEAKER_09: this is going to be a four series five series max arc yeah i feel like gilligan has an idea of where

SPEAKER_00: he's oh he does he's not winging it no no i think last thing i wanted to talk about here that i think is kind of interesting is that a pr guru who i don't think i've ever had the pleasure of meeting um but she wrote the go direct manifesto which i think actually i get credit for but okay i think she

SPEAKER_38: probably rewrote my ideas i don't know when her let's see when this manifesto came out about going

SPEAKER_153: direct because yeah 24 yeah no she gets no credit for that sorry i i created that going direct okay

SPEAKER_305: but whatever but explain to us what's going on here a pr person this i do find this fascinating a pr

SPEAKER_12: person is starting a venture firm that's really fascinating lulu worked at a large a number of large technology companies in a comms role she eventually left that did a lot of talking in public founded her own firm called rostra which is named after a part of rome where they stood on old bits of ships and talked to the public and her big pitch has been go direct don't use intermediaries now what she has done as jason just alluded to is put together a firm a 40 million dollar vehicle to go along with that essentially as far as i can tell investing in the companies that she works with and she told uh axios to quote um storytelling is alpha investing complements roster's work because narrative and capital both compound and then she says this thing which i've heard from a a lot of other people we'll talk about in just a second right now it's easier than ever to build new things and harder than ever to get people to care so her argument is that building stuff a little bit easier than it was you can code faster i don't know vibe code whatever you want no you definitely

SPEAKER_73: build startups but telling the story is like a big part of it right yeah so i was thinking about

SPEAKER_12: this story and i know a couple of other examples that come right to mind first one uh is day one ventures this is founded by uh masha boucher actually i know her back from my san francisco days and she has put together a firm from her comms practice so she runs around venture firm and has raised not just one but two but three funds jason each of increasing size 20 million grant 52 and then 150 um yeah she was in true bill at 15 million dollar valuation sold the rocket for 1.3 so some success there there's another firm vsc ventures this is part of the uh an arm of vsc another comms shop and they also again stress the importance of getting attention for products so not the first not the second but the third time we've seen this trend of essentially service providers

SPEAKER_00: building venture capital funds i like it it's somewhat interesting i think it speaks to what we saw in journalism when a bunch of journalists uh and and specifically a bunch of tech crunch journalists your alma mater we're like wait uh journalism is dying uh you know there's no more competition for our services and like this pays better and it's essentially the same job which i think most people would agree i was the pioneer in that but uh because i was the first to do it after michael moritz so it's michael moritz me oh malik mg siegler yeah it was like a it was a good

SPEAKER_27: cohort and that job is also you know trying to figure out what the reality or the story is in the pr job it's how to spin the story and to get attention or how to massage the story or how to scale telling

SPEAKER_00: the story all that kind of stuff if you were i don't like pr i don't like pr people generally because it's just you know exhausting to deal with them that being said having one in the building who's

SPEAKER_139: really good that makes sense to me it makes a lot of sense to me i have a lot of friends that work in and around the comms industry and uh if i was ever in trouble i know that they're they're my first call

SPEAKER_12: because they've been through it man they just know how to handle a crisis they also back to your point earlier on the show about being able to do a code red you know who's really good at fire drills

SPEAKER_48: comms people the good ones but this is the problem as a former journalist you became friends with pr people this is always the trap like the pr people know how to ingratiate themselves and spend time with journalists etc when i ran on all of our pubs we wouldn't talk to journalists i ban the and gadget reporters do not i'm sorry from talking to our people yeah just do not talk to pr people just go to the subjects talk to them directly if pr people call you and want to talk to say we don't talk to pr people same thing i do here at this week in startups all in pr people email us we have a little sentence thank you so much for your interest we don't take pitches please remove us from your list and pr people hate me but they respect me because they know like and then i would always have like clever people well how do people do get on the show i say we pick them how do you

SPEAKER_15: pick them well i pick what i think is interesting oh okay well i'd love to tell you why this is

SPEAKER_71: interesting like oh no we don't take pitches i don't want you to tell me what i think is

SPEAKER_21: interesting my my job is to be informed yeah and i made molly and i think i instructed you to do the

SPEAKER_02: same thing with this week in startups i hope i did at some point like just use this snippet i want them to think there's no way to get on the show and it's like a little uncomfortable at first to write

SPEAKER_22: that i don't know if you found it uncomfortable i've i've had to say it on a lot of phone calls like

SPEAKER_12: people like hey hey hey hey hey how you doing i'm like oh good they're like hey we got a guy well when i first joined everyone thought that i joined all in and so they're like can we get on the show and i'm like i i'm not on that i don't even know i'm sure maybe you can but not not through

SPEAKER_44: me uh and eventually people figured it out and then they stopped trying because i kept saying things

SPEAKER_12: like no and we don't do that uh and also you don't we don't want to fake interest in somebody you know like i don't want to have someone come to the show and be like i'm not compelled by this jason let's talk to them for 15 minutes the only thing that can happen is sometimes like somebody's like

SPEAKER_02: i do michael dell's book and i'm like well michael dell's a hero whatever i'm like yeah just tell michael to reach out and they're like okay well he doesn't do that i'm like and then i just said okay and they're like okay so he's gonna be on the show i'm like no i just told you if michael dell wants to come on the program tell him to ping me he knows how to get me and like of course like what are we doing here like if you're pitching me a friend of mine or somebody who's been on the show like you didn't even know they've been on the show or that we have a relationship like what are you doing pr people pr people are just 90 of them are just dumb they're just low iq 90 percent uh

SPEAKER_44: alex is like sure well i mean i i don't know what am i going to interrogate that and argue that 75 i mean no matter what i look like an asshole i want to point out though that everything you're saying

SPEAKER_12: underscores lulu's philosophy she thinks that you should go around uh intermediaries be they pr people or she cribbed my go direction other notable venture capital firms started by non-traditional folks uh harry stebbings and 20vc sure invested in poolside immerge.dev couple of twist 500 companies

SPEAKER_62: and then there's a lot of other smaller ones that i found so wpp the big advertising conglomerate yeah

SPEAKER_00: that's a corporate it's it's adjacent but that's like a corporate vc arm yeah yeah yeah but corporate vc arm isn't like i'm leaving pr pr sucks or i'm leaving this and going to that

SPEAKER_335: but yeah it's adjacent it's adjacent uh i found some like breadcrumbs about other pr firms starting

SPEAKER_12: firms starting funds that didn't really kind of make it and the websites weren't up anymore and then if you want to go further afield to non-traditional venture capital firm founders

SPEAKER_44: there's a number of celebrities serena williams ashton kutcher snoop doc and kevin durant come to

SPEAKER_00: mind yeah that's another angle to get into vc is to use the chain smokers to use your celebrity to get access to deals and then use your platform to then go promote stuff and it can work it's worked out

SPEAKER_27: for serena obviously and ashton all right everybody thanks for tuning in to this week in

SPEAKER_02: startups we'll be back on wednesday bye bye all right everybody tomorrow on the show alex will interview on tuesday a couple of twist 500 companies coming at you and wednesday i'll be back for the news roundtable bye bye