SPEAKER_01: pick up your phone dipshit sax yeah i'll be ready in like two minutes okay i'm sorry let's go

SPEAKER_02: splash some water on your face take a couple of whatever you need some and uh let's go we're waiting okay i'll be there in two minutes okay okay hurry up is your chance to get max air time listen freeberg's out that means you're gonna get by default 33.3 percent of air time it's gonna be your biggest week ever

SPEAKER_19: hey everybody hey everybody welcome to another episode of the all in podcast with us today the

SPEAKER_22: dictator himself chamath palihapiti and the rain man david sax i'm jay cow and the queen of quinoa

SPEAKER_25: quit the show we're not here he quit the show i think i think he quit so we're looking for a

SPEAKER_26: science person if you know anybody email all science guy at the all in podcast.com if you

SPEAKER_27: want to apply for the science position here no uh he couldn't make it he was uh he's moving he's

SPEAKER_26: moving he's moving i guess we can say that without invading his privacy but he's not going to be able though we do a show anyway because there's so much going on uh and i think we should start with this do we want to start with the covet stuff again for the third episode in a row or do you want to start

SPEAKER_32: china and then back into kobe oh i think we should just do covet quickly because i think you know

SPEAKER_33: as much as the audience complained about it we got a lot of comments saying why are you talking about covet so much we were ahead of the curve i'm predicting this whole new delta wave you know we told people what was coming i think it was a useful service so people might not want to hear it but it was i think i would say we're probably two weeks ahead of the national media i think that we've gotten a

Chamath Palihapitiya: couple things actually right the a couple weeks ahead of other people yeah so yeah i mean it was

SPEAKER_37: pretty obvious that this was going to race through the places that had low vaccination

SPEAKER_39: and having the breakthrough cases is

SPEAKER_41: i don't think anybody anticipated that and the thing we didn't yeah over the last week on twitter i'm seeing this big debate on whether vaccinated people can spread the delta variant and i'm like

SPEAKER_33: guys didn't you see the show two weeks ago we covered this yeah i got it i was vaccinated i got it from someone who was vaccinated this is no you know delta variant has slipped the vaccine it still prevents the most serious cases generally speaking we need to see it as a spectrum of protection rather than completely binary but uh yeah absolutely you can get it and pass it on if you're vaccinated like we know that and we said we told the audience that three weeks ago the other thing we predicted

SPEAKER_26: was you know that this is going to be incredibly disruptive and it's going to create another debate of lock and potential lockdowns and mask mandates and most of all we discussed and you know we had a

SPEAKER_39: i think a pretty vibrant debate between all of us about under what circumstances does your decision to not get vaccinated impact everybody else vis-a-vis the petri dish of the next variant that's coming

SPEAKER_26: uh hopefully that'll be less uh deadly less contagious which is tends to be how these things go but we also predicted some people are just going to start requiring vaccines vaccine cards and we we mentioned what's happening in france and i don't know what examples you've seen this week yeah i thought

David Sacks: last week when you made vaccine passports the main issue i thought well let's put it this way i think that was actually turned out to be great moderation because what has been the big issue all over the world since the last episode vaccine passports you saw it with naftali bennett in israel they are not taking any of this vaccine hesitancy there's nine million people in that country eight million are vaccinated they're telling the last million you got to go get vaccinated he has laid down the law saying enough is enough a billion people have gotten vaccinated uh it works and for the last million of you who haven't gotten vaccinated if you want to attend any function with more than 100 people if you want to go to synagogue if you want to go to a sports game if you want to go to the mall you have to be vaccinated or you're going to get tested that day at your own expense

SPEAKER_50: um everywhere you go it's going to be so they're going to make it a real pain in the ass until you get vaccinated you then separately had roger goodell basically doing the same thing in the nfl saying to players you well first of all all the coaches have to get vaccinated there was an anti-vax coach who got fired and then they don't have as much power with the players because the players have a union but goodell said to them listen if you don't get vaccinated you're going to get tested every day that you go to work and if the team if there's an outbreak on the team and you guys miss a game you're

David Sacks: going to lose all of your salary we're not going to put up with apparently there's a game last year during the um during uh kovid where i think it was a ravens um uh steelers game and half of the one of those teams i think it was the ravens half of the first string was out with kovid or they were in isolation protocol because they're around players you know obviously if you're in a locker room one player gets everyone's gonna be exposed right so it turned out to be like one of the the worst games uh that the nfl put on last year and get all saying we're not going to put out product like that anymore if you are the reason why the team misses a game guess what you and all of your teammates are going to lose your salary and since there's only 17 games in an nfl season you're talking about real real money so you had goodell doing that and now you have facebook and google

SPEAKER_50: basically coming out saying in order to go back to the office you have to be vaccinated now it's a

David Sacks: little bit of the soft it's sort of more of the the iron fist beneath the velvet glove because they are offering testing so if you don't get vaccinated you can get a test every time you go to the office but unlike israel which is making you pay for it you know you know facebook and google are so rich they're going to pay for it so basically what you're seeing here is that government is not in the

SPEAKER_54: u.s it's not required to mandate uh federal workers um otherwise you have to get tested weekly

SPEAKER_56: this is beyond now debatable um i think the funny thing is the republicans i think somewhere along the way realized oh my god we're going to lose the midterm elections they have found a way

SPEAKER_34: to find a single modality and behavior to steal defeat from the jaws of victory you know i think that the republicans were probably trending to basically win back the house and now i don't think that's the case um and you have a bunch of these um red state governors who are literally flipping their shit right now trying to figure out how to get their folks vaccinated many of these people may not even

Chamath Palihapitiya: be able to vote come midterms because they're either going to be dead or still sick i mean uh it's it's uh

SPEAKER_34: we've learned a lot um and at this point you're being left with folks there again there are people

SPEAKER_56: who do it for religious reasons i get it there are people that you know are going to sort of like live off the grid and live by themselves i get them too but the folks that want to be attacks on the system or use public resources i don't understand and uh they're basically going to get singled out and discriminated

SPEAKER_39: against and uh the carrot and the stick method here i think is going to work because we saw a bunch

SPEAKER_26: of people sign up to get vaccinated in france once they said listen you can't go to a cafe or a bar and i think that a lot of the people who are not vaccinated are probably enjoying going out and having a life danny meyer the restaurateur in new york from union square cafe and grammar c tavern one of the most famous restaurateurs of all time announced on cnbc this morning that he'll be requiring vaccines for all staff and customers what do we think of that restaurant saying you've got to

David Friedberg: show a vax card on the way and if i love it listen to me if i'm going to go in and i'm going to spend

Chamath Palihapitiya: two or three thousand dollars on wine and then a couple thousand bucks on a tip i don't want some asshole who's going to get me sick there it's bad enough that i still may get sick and by the way danny meyer's restaurants are not like you know red robin these are extremely high-end places

SPEAKER_68: the idea that you can get a communicable respiratory disease and spend five thousand dollars is

SPEAKER_26: untenable untenable non-starter sax i mean listen you you've you it's very interesting last episode i felt like you were really trying to balance your belief in freedom uh and people being able to make decisions to themselves with you know the reality that we can't be close forever how has the last

SPEAKER_33: week changed your thinking and what do you think of the danny meyer i i i like what danny meyer did in this sense he wants to create a certain experience for his clientele and he knows that his clientele are

SPEAKER_41: more likely to go dine in his restaurants if there's a vaccine policy at his restaurants he's

David Sacks: not saying a policy for the whole country he's setting it for his establishment he has every right to be able to do that and he believes that will help his bottom line and he's probably right about that similarly roger goodell same thing i mean he took a tough line because he knows that if he wants the nfl to put out a great product every week they can't be canceling games because of

SPEAKER_50: covet outbreaks uh you know they can't have the first string players out with covet so he made a

David Sacks: smart business decision i think people should have the freedom the right to do that now i still have let's call it a reservation about government requiring it um not because i don't see the benefit i definitely see the health benefit but just because i don't like giving government the power to you know stick a stick a needle in your arm if you're a government employee i do think the government has added power uh we talked about this last week they can make it a job requirement and you know what's interesting in california california said if you're a state employee you got to get vaccinated but the one group they singled out were the teachers because you know gavin newsom has no guts to stand up the teachers union whatsoever and i find it so ironic that early in the pandemic we had

SPEAKER_50: this big debate about whether the teachers would go back to school in the fall and the teachers union said we won't go back unless we're first in line for the vaccine well guess what they got that now they're saying they're not going to go back if you make us get back i mean you can't win with yeah

SPEAKER_26: they're moving the goalposts i mean people they want to work from home they it's kind of ridiculous there's one group that needs to do it most and they should be the one it's kind of like the army and teachers and healthcare workers they should be given a mandate if you want this job you must be vaccinated you cannot be in the army in the military and not be vaccinated because we need you in close

SPEAKER_22: quarters on a helicopter to go whack osama bin laden we can't have a covet outbreak in the navy seals

David Sacks: when we got to go i'm okay with that i think i think every employer has the right to require it if

SPEAKER_41: they believe it's going to impact job performance now i want to go back to the point that jama made

David Sacks: about the midterm elections i i because i there's a part i agree with and a part i disagree with so the part i agree with is that the republicans were cruising to you know uh a midterm shellacking and now um the uh the whole vaccine hesitancy issue i think there was a prospect of that causing damage to the republicans not because most republicans are vaccine hesitant but rather because uh republican politicians were not out front enough on getting vaccines but look there's a difference between reality and perception here here's the reality every single republican governor every single one has been vaccinated and has supported the vaccine mitch mcconnell is vaccinated sports vaccine kevin mccarthy put out a statement you even have the house minority whip um scalise get vaccinated on on live tv why had he not been vaccinated because he already had coveted and he didn't necessarily think he needed but he got the vaccine anyway to basically double down you had sarah huckabee sanders come out and say that

SPEAKER_87: she was getting the trump she called it the trump vaccine yes please if they put the trump logo on it

SPEAKER_50: right i mean she understands right like this is probably you know operation uh light speed or warp speed

SPEAKER_90: or whatever was probably the biggest operation operation up the midterms that's what the republican

SPEAKER_50: should call this yeah well so so look i mean the republican politicians in the maine support vaccines

David Sacks: the problem is that they were being a little bit too quiet about it as a result of that you had the fringe people the marjorie taylor greens and so forth they were occupying too much airspace around this issue um and you know frankly you know right now i think that i think the democrats are going to keep the house

SPEAKER_33: i wouldn't i wouldn't necessarily go that far but uh because i i think that i think the republican

David Sacks: problem was not that they're vaccine hesitant but rather that they were just being a little too quiet about it um yeah but now i think that's changed i mean there is not a single major republican

Chamath Palihapitiya: politician who isn't strongly in favor of vaccine if the republicans can get their actual act together and actually get these uh you know jason does joke about it but i do think he's right in a certain way basically like this this group of republicans largely who refuse to get vaccinated then they may be able to pull something out but i think that it's going to have to require a little bit of

SPEAKER_96: backtracking and showing up as you said by the mainstream republican political groups and they just

SPEAKER_26: have not done a good job there's a really simple offering for them new information new strain new

SPEAKER_22: approach listen we didn't anticipate delta would happen this is 10 times yeah it allows people to save face basically they can save face you got a perfect offer and listen there's new information

SPEAKER_41: here this thing is even the cdc hasn't officially changed their policy yet um i mean it's coming right we know it's coming they've always been behind the curve we've predicted the policy change on the

David Sacks: show anywhere from two weeks to two months before they actually do it but look on the vaccine i don't discern a difference in position on the vaccine itself between republican governors and democrat governors they both are advocating it they're both allowing private organizations to require it but none of them to my knowledge have either had the the guts or the temerity however you want to see it

SPEAKER_107: to actually require it oh i love that word temerity not really used not used enough and just putting a

SPEAKER_26: cap in this before we move on to what's going on in china um we talked about implementing this and how do you implement it well we don't need to have a national registry people have vaccine cards you bring your vaccine card you show it and then of course people go to well what happens if you uh create a fact can anybody create a fake vaccine card yes of course you can but the fbi has put out uh a statement now because of lalapalooza the music festival they are saying do not buy a fake vaccine card because if you want to have no mask at lalapalooza you have to uh show your vaccine card and they said the fbi is uh tweeting about this uh it's illegal it endangers yourself and those around you and it's a federal crime that could lead to hefty fines or prison time oh my god yeah so show us

SPEAKER_113: your papers just get the vaccine and just get the vaccine folks why are we still dealing with this

Chamath Palihapitiya: that oh my god it's quickly becoming a darwin award this is quickly moving into darwin award territory

SPEAKER_22: we are i talked to my doctor and i was like i want to get the moderna or j and j which one should i get and they're like you got the fives already i'm like yeah i want to take a second one like i don't

SPEAKER_26: think that's gonna make a difference i was like i think it's totally gonna make a difference this was like when we got off the pod last week and they're like yeah i was like well just give me the third shot of pfizer then and they're like well that's not necessary either i'm like i don't care if it's not necessary i want it give me the third shot of fives and then i open up drudge report

SPEAKER_77: yesterday and it's like third shot of vaccine of pfizer in israel or whatever they're just going to start giving people a third shot yeah i just want to get ahead of the car you're exactly right

SPEAKER_41: but by the way there's one other piece of news that came out that i think is very positive on on covet which is the availability of these oral uh antivirals the pills that you can take when you get an early case of it right so it's like what they have for tamiflu with the flu like no one should ever die of the flu because tamiflu is like completely effective at stopping it provided

David Sacks: you take tamiflu early in the case so i think that you know with the reduced effectiveness of vaccine what we're going to have to do is supplement the vaccines and the boosters with home testing and then you know these oral antivirals so that you get you you take a test you discover you got covet and you immediately get prescribed you know one of these these uh pills and the pharma companies

SPEAKER_127: are coming out there's like three different pharma companies coming out with these oral antivirals and if freeberg were here he could tell us all about it yeah freeberg explain the science behind

SPEAKER_68: this you know what the science can go itself hey danny meyer chill a great bottle of white burgundy

SPEAKER_136: because i'm coming baby let's go baby vaxxed and ready to go oh my lord uh all right the the china

SPEAKER_26: situation has been perplexing to me you know my position was always be careful working uh in china or investing in china we're investing in chinese companies because they could change the rules at any time and change the rules they have in the past a year we talked about obviously and financial and jack ma going mia bite dance a ceo and founder uh stepping down as ceo amid chinese regulations and all the scrutiny uh and then we have dd last week being pulled from the app store in an unprecedented penalty where you're not allowed to download dd and the existing users can use it and then on top of that uh all the educational companies this week were told that they cannot operate as for-profit companies and these companies have gone public in hong kong and in the west uh and this has caused such an acute effect softbank uh is clearing a bunch of its uber position to cover their losses in dd uh and then there is the story of larry chan who is a chinese education entrepreneur he was worth 15 billion in january now he's lost 99 of his net worth according to bloomberg he uh founded gaotu tai chi though or tech chido which is a chinese online tutoring firm as we know education is huge uh in china that company uh gaotu peaked at 140 dollars a share in january and has fallen to three dollars a share big sorted story there tencent lost a hundred billion in market cap in three days earlier this week as china cracked down on what they call the monopoly in music rights so while we debate what happens with the monopolies here in the united states china just literally told them and here's

SPEAKER_140: the quote from the bbc article the company and its affiliated businesses have been told that they can no longer engage in exclusive deals over music rights and must dissolve any existing agreements

SPEAKER_26: within 30 days i mean this would be like biden just saying the app store is now open you have to let other app stores in apple or you know just coming down and saying to amazon you can't sell amazon basics anymore in 30 days no more amazon basics at the site what are we what do you think the end game is here is this a because china seems like they are very deliberate and they plan in centuries

SPEAKER_56: what is happening here there's the short term and the long term i think what's happening in the short term is that the same thing that we are talking about in the united states that sax is you know very eloquently basically i think led most everybody in just really framing for a lot of people is this idea that um you know we have privatized free speech and we have put the distribution of information into the hands of three or four founder ceo oligarchs that's also true in china and when you look under the hood of the major internet companies there's four or five guys that are in charge and so i think that in the united states politicians feel increasingly uneasy with those folks having power because it's applied indiscriminately trump gets banned trump may not get banned this person get distribution this article is considered misinformation that article is considered disinformation this article is suppressed it's a dangerous place to be um and in china they were just like enough's enough so i think the short term as it relates to the internet companies was basically a realization that we are not going to allow any more devolution of power from the chinese communist party to and into the hands of these internet entrepreneurs so that was that was sort of

SPEAKER_143: like the so it's a move out of fear they're scared they're going to lose their power base not scared i

SPEAKER_56: think they're just smart and they were like we're not going to allow this to happen so they don't have to deal with section 230 or any law like that i think it was just a realization that we want them to understand who was boss right and so there was a wave of resignations there was uh now all of this market cap upheaval and this is now where we get to sort of like the appetizer and i think in the appetizer what they're basically saying is we will control how money is made and who makes money um and i think that that sets up the really difficult thing that i think happens which is about the long term so in this in this thing what's happening right now is china very firmly telling everybody we are firmly in control there is no private market and there is no capital market without our approval and that's a really big statement um and in fact it was such a big statement that um i think the chinese uh security authorities and had like a conference call at goldman sachs jp morgan all these folks were invited and you know the vice chairman basically his quote was something to the effect of we promise that any more changes will at least let you know not a there's nothing nothing to see here or there's nothing more to come it's just more that as we decide new rules we'll make sure that we give you guys enough warning so it's very much firmly saying we know exactly how money is made we will decide who makes money in what way and we're going to make sure that you know all of this wealth creation happens under terms that we define and i think that the setup for the long term the long term in china is complicated it is an enormous demographic time bomb we've talked about this before by the end of 2100 china's population will shrink from 1.1 1.2 billion people down to about 700 million people right so they had very progressive quote unquote under their framework laws of one child policy to basically make it economically viable in the 60s and 70s there was such a number of people those people were able to get great jobs in the you know 80s and 90s and 2000s and now they've realized oh wow we made a huge miscalculation because now there is just not enough people and so china's going to shrink and i think that honestly i think xi jinping probably thinks the simplest way to solve this is to basically nationalize a lot of the economy over time and so i if i was a betting man which i am general but i'm not in china because i just don't understand the market it's super well it's a rick casino

Chamath Palihapitiya: it's a stupid place to bet i'm not going to say that i just think that i don't know the market

SPEAKER_56: well i mean if they change the rules of the game hold on let me just finish what i'm saying i think that what we're starting what we're starting to see is the beginning of nationalizations and i think it's going to start in technology universe because those are the critical assets that the chinese need to own for the future so that's in my opinion what's happening i think it's really important what's going on there um and uh yeah i don't know sax when you look at this we've been talking about

SPEAKER_26: you know this these two great competitors america and china and who's going to win how does china win if this would seem not having a vibrant entrepreneurial you know socialist communist hybrid is this the end of that experiment and now it's just going to go all national and then

SPEAKER_22: doesn't that make it easier for the west to win if china is just going to say we're going to we're going to operate everything and they don't have a competition of ideas

SPEAKER_127: if they go that far i think it's really interesting actually to compare what's happening in china with

David Sacks: what's happening on the us in the us because on the surface both countries are having this debate about whether big tech needs to be reined in broken up controlled we're having that debate in the us and obviously they're having some version of it in china but it's a little bit like the the civil rights debate right where you know we have our civil rights issue in the us and you know they have shenzhen you know they have uh the uyghurs you know it's like a whole order of magnitude different in terms of the way they react and i think there's i would say there's three main differences here between the chinese approach and the us approach number one data privacy we have a concept of separation between private companies and the data they control and the data that the us government can get its hands on and the

SPEAKER_50: us government typically has to get a warrant and go through a corporate scene to get that data what china is doing they've now passed a law basically saying all these companies your data belongs to us if we want it we get it they're taking operational control over the data and you know they're going to use it okay that's a big difference number two i think that china seems to be really worried about these big tech companies not just in terms of whether they might engage in anti-competitive practices or consumer harm sort of those conventional antitrust concepts in the united states but they're concerned about these big tech moguls becoming power centers in china and you saw this with jack ma right i mean clearly the ccp had a problem with the way that jack ma had become a figure that people rallied around him they looked to him they cared about what he had to say and all of a sudden yes the ant ipo was put on hold but it was more than that right um you know this was not just like you know what the sec would have done all of a sudden jack ma disappears he goes into some sort of house arrest he comes out three months later looking kind of emaciated uh you know they are putting the the fear of god in you know these big tech moguls in a way that we would never do in the us i mean look i don't want tim cook to engage in anti-competitive practices but i don't want anything bad happening to tim cook i don't think the guy should be under house arrest if he wants to donate his money to political causes and speak out as a private citizen he has every right to do that and i'll defend his right to do that no matter you know how much i want you know apple to be reined in that they don't have that's that again that separate concept in china and i think the last thing that's going on here that's different is you saw china put the kibosh on there are 34 ipos of major china chinese tech companies that were scheduled to ipo in u.s markets and they have sort of shut that pipeline down and what it appears to be to they appear to be saying is that you know we've talked about reshoring strategic

SPEAKER_85: industries back to the u.s like pharmaceutical manufacturing they seem to be saying we are going to reshore the ipo business we do not want you uh big chinese tech companies ipoing on american markets on american exchanges we are bringing that business back to china and that is why i think

David Sacks: you're seeing you know giant ripple effects now because i mean to jama's point about decoupling we

SPEAKER_85: now it looks like are going to be decoupling our financial markets and um you know that's why you're

SPEAKER_37: seeing you know gigantic hits to the valuation that's a would you would you agree with me that

SPEAKER_26: the decoupling of these financial markets might be in the best interest of humanity and ultimately the decoupling of these two economies if we don't see eye to eye about human rights and how to treat people maybe it's good that we have a little more distance between the two markets i mean it's hard to know if engagement is the better process but it doesn't seem like the chinese communist party wants to have anything to do with democracy anything to do with free markets they want to control all the

David Sacks: markets yeah i mean you could see um but you know in a way the product that the u.s was exporting to china was uh was our financial markets and not and in i think a good way right so that i think the bad version of this is when china is able to buy up ownership in critical strategic centers in the u.s and that affects people's speech rights over here but this is not china buying up ownership in the u.s this was china acting as a consumer of u.s financial markets and um and i think i think it's different

SPEAKER_50: right when we're selling products over there that helps correct our trade balance right this is why i don't have a problem with elon selling cars over in china he's helping our trade balance okay but so but they're kind of canceling that they're kind of saying we're going to reassure this industry we want

SPEAKER_56: to have a domestic you know this is this is this is creating a mono economy right it's like it's going to blur the lines between public and private ownership and it's going to basically make it one huge pot from which the chinese government um can can take and put it back into as it deems fit for the broader success of china as a whole right so if you're a ceo and they don't like you you're going to resign right if you're a company and they're worried about your propensity to be a little too frisky on your own they'll rein you in i've they'll either use cyber security law or something else but the point is that i think that we shouldn't take this as free market regulators having their way this

SPEAKER_34: isn't lena khan implementing you know some laws this is a top-down decision to nationalize

SPEAKER_56: large parts of the economy starting with technology and i know that for some people that may seem unfathomable but um if i'm a betting man which i am that's what i would bet on that this is the beginning of the beginning of an attempt to pull these companies in i mean at the at what david said is true the chinese government owns the data of chinese companies so at the end of the day the chinese

SPEAKER_163: government also owns the users and it also owns the revenues it just hasn't told you yet

SPEAKER_26: yeah in a way it's like the chinese government in our our government is trying to officiate the game fairly and create a really competitive vibrant game and i think what the chinese government just

David Friedberg: said is the game's over like there is no game yeah no there's a game it just has it just has one

SPEAKER_56: because it has an uber ceo it made a bunch of ceos general managers in a large corporation that report through a reporting chain to one person xi jinping but there's no more game in terms of building

SPEAKER_22: companies and investing in china like how is the west ever going to trust how is goldman sachs or sequoia you know launching a venture firm there or retail investors or hedge fund investors how are

Chamath Palihapitiya: they ever going to want to participate in that market because so look for example when you invest in china right or if you set up a fund you know there are two pools of capital right there's the local

SPEAKER_56: renminbi denominated investment vehicles and then there's the us dollar denominated investment vehicles and they do that to segregate where the capital comes from so it's not too difficult for the chinese government to basically say you know what i'm going to actually make a constraint on dollar inflows so that you know the renminbi denominated investment funds that are from chinese investors into chinese companies needs to be above a certain percentage call it two-thirds right or call it eighty percent they can make all these decisions because these are all just rules that are completely under the control so i i think that people who don't think this is going to happen are probably not looking at the setup the setup seems to be directing itself towards that outcome and it by the way it makes sense for what xi jinping wants to do from no no but that's not my

SPEAKER_22: question my question is why would masayoshi san or another entity ever invest in china because you look

SPEAKER_56: through the risks and you got completely enamored by the population and the tam but what i'm saying now

SPEAKER_175: is why would they do it again or are they not going to do it no but there are there are boundary

SPEAKER_56: conditions that would say that even before this you would have had to reconsider the population is shrinking there's a different demand side pull that's happening right older people need different kinds of services than younger people there's not enough younger people there's too many men there's not enough women so there's not enough couples there's not that all of these demographic issues ultimately will get reflected in the economic reality which is that smart investors would put money in china differently over time anyways but i think that this is a bigger thing as david said which is if that's coming to pass you want to control the pipes because you want to control how that information is presented to people your citizens so that they don't get pissed off

David Friedberg: and then you might as well just own the economy they own the business anyway i see this as being amazing for american tech companies because i don't see who would ever want to be an entrepreneur whoever has a great idea and wants to pursue it in china why would you do it no i disagree with you and and the reason i disagree with you and we don't have access to their markets anyway what

SPEAKER_56: company has access to their market the difference is young smart chinese people for decades have been staying in china in part because it was more they could more relate culturally to jack ma than they could to jack dorsey okay that's just i mean that just makes sense sure and i understand that and then the second is we uh like a lot of uh like sorry like the opposite of some other western

David Friedberg: countries like canada closed our doors why would the next jack ma start a company if they saw jack ma

SPEAKER_56: disappear that's my question because you know what if you're coming from china and you can you can only make a billion versus 45 billion i think you still take the shot okay i think jacal is is right

David Sacks: in the sense i don't think it's gonna be like a binary decision where all of a sudden everyone just stops doing business in china but they're going to be hedging their bets i mean if you were a chinese billionaire looking at this landscape your your your priority has got to be to get some wealth outside the country beyond the control of the ccp you're going to be buying bitcoin you're going to be trying to get your money overseas you have got to be very nervous about what's buying homes in palo waldo absolutely i mean look i think what president xi is doing is fundamentally redefining the bargain between chinese entrepreneurs and the government and here here was the original bargain right the great chinese leader and economic reformer dung shaoping basically set the bargain you know 40 years ago and what and basically the bargain was this we're going to open up the economy and let you the entrepreneur

SPEAKER_50: get rich we're going to keep all the political power so as long as you don't mess with us politically you can get as rich as you want that was the original bargain now president xi is saying there's a new bargain there's a new boss in town and here is the deal that economic interest in china will be subordinate to national interests those national interests are defined by the ccp and i run the ccp for

SPEAKER_78: exactly exactly and that is what is happening and that is a big change they just got layered there's

SPEAKER_26: a new ceo that they report to this actually makes me very hopeful actually i think this is going to be like a spiraling down of their economy i don't think it's going to spiral up i don't i don't think so

SPEAKER_56: i mean who's going to engage them who's going to invest in their economy everybody guess what because if you want a shred of lithium if you want a battery if you want nickel if you want anything to happen you need to work with china they are incredibly smart and thoughtful they have been strategic while we've been running around you know complaining crying talking about the kindergarten soccer game they were doing the hard work they were doing it for decades and until we find solutions

SPEAKER_199: that can work around them we need to work with them i think they just throttled innovation and they just shot themselves in both feet i think they're going to regret this decision i would come out in

David Sacks: the middle and say they've just attached a discount rate that now every investor has to consider political risk when they invest in china because the future is very uncertain the bargain is getting

SPEAKER_50: changed and if you're an investor you now have to take you're taking some huge points i agree with

SPEAKER_96: david i think that's a better way i would refine what i'm saying by saying it's a distribution of risk where it's closer to russia now than it is to the united states yeah and then i think there's an

SPEAKER_26: there's literally an act called the mcginski act maginski act what is the act that bill broder's lawyer maginski oh yes um because basically in russia they were just killing people and taking their businesses i mean this feels like the equivalent in china magnitsky magnitsky yeah i mean they literally that was bill broder's uh lawyer um who was tortured to death and i i just don't see anybody wanting to

SPEAKER_22: invest there anymore and it just does make the bitcoin in hindsight it does look like they shut

SPEAKER_26: down bitcoin a couple of months before making these actions so your point david they probably anticipated that people would start shipping their money out using bitcoin and so they banned bitcoin and now they're banning ceos from having too much power that was probably a sequential event

SPEAKER_207: that would be very smart on their part you know can't be very smart what does this do to like

SPEAKER_26: the sequoia capital china the masayoshi-san investing heavily there tencent investing here all the

SPEAKER_147: chinese very active in the united states investing in companies all the chinese lps are are fine all the

SPEAKER_56: chinese gps are fine all the chinese companies are fine i think david's right it's just a discount factor i do think it affects global dollar flows and i think it's hard for um a western capital pool to allocate money into china without doing a little bit more work and applying a higher discount rate

David Sacks: yeah i i have to believe that the conversations happening in these firms that have made gobs of money in china over the last couple of decades it has to be are we living on borrowed time how much more time do we have before china says that chinese profits chinese return on investment are going to go to chinese individuals and companies under our control because that's that's the direction it all

SPEAKER_217: seems to be headed yeah and how quickly can i get get out of these positions i mean how do you even get

SPEAKER_26: out of these positions if and this is the other thing i don't understand if they're going to

SPEAKER_22: reverse some ipos how does that mechanically happen are they going to just say it's a buyout it's

Chamath Palihapitiya: a second second transaction and they'll just do like a a buyout so if masayoshi-san owns some amount

SPEAKER_102: of dd they say here's here's the price per share that we pay you here's your cash give us the shares

SPEAKER_64: ciao that's incredible a forced sale at whatever price they determine i know i mean like i think

SPEAKER_96: these things will operate more efficiently than that because you have a distributed shareholder base so

SPEAKER_56: you know china can't force a shareholder of dd to sell the shares because it's listed in an american stock exchange but they but if dd does go private the way that you know the news reports are saying

SPEAKER_96: somebody's going to have to backstop that capital i suspect it'll be a chinese organization so they

SPEAKER_22: will take dd private again and then buy out all of the shareholders who bought from around by the way

SPEAKER_56: if that does come to pass i think that is the that is an obvious signal that we're moving into sort of a more a nationalization of critical resources and china has determined that internet resources are critical and i think that that's right if i was in their shoes that's exactly what i would do as well

SPEAKER_37: does this mean that we should be uh kicking out chinese companies from operating in the us ie tick

SPEAKER_56: tock etc no but i do think that tick tock needs to get carved out of bite dance and it needs to have a completely american cap table but that shouldn't be a government edict that should be something that the bite dance investors and board are scrambling to do right now because otherwise that equity value may go to zero bite dance should be a half a trillion dollar company it probably is a couple hundred billion dollar company now which means that it probably lost half of its market value it's crazy

SPEAKER_127: crazy yeah i think i think there's a few things for us to worry about there um i mean i i i i like the

David Sacks: idea of out competing china by having freer and more open capital markets and allowing anyone in the world to invest in our companies i think the issues with tick tock are more around data you know we know now that any data that by dance has belongs to the chinese government this isn't just a tick tock issue it's any company any us company that's doing business in china look it applies to zoom okay look

SPEAKER_50: zoom we're on zoom right now zoom hat is not a chinese company but it has a giant engineering team in china what are the data implications for that yeah they stopped routing their servers remember they

SPEAKER_26: had some servers routing through china but i do think they're going to have to shut down and sell off whatever their assets are in china that's going to be untenable to have a communication platform you know it's kind of like huawei right we don't allow huawei to operate and we're going to have to do that with software right there's been a big crisper breakthrough um 65 year old man named patrick doherty uh was suffering with a a disease in which his protein was misshaped misshapen uh building up in his body destroying important tissues uh such as nervousness hands and feet he watched the same disease kill his dad uh and here's the quote had watched others get crippled and die difficult deaths from this disease and it's a terrible prognosis he entered a trial utilizing crispr the gene editing tool and researchers reported the data indicating that the experiment treatment worked well the study doherty volunteered for is the first in which doctors are simply infusing the gene editor directly into patients and letting it find its own way to the right gene in the right cells in this case the cells in the liver making the destructive protein the advance is being held not just as not just for amyloidosis patients but also as a proof of concept that crispr could be used to treat

SPEAKER_224: many other much more common diseases it's a new way of using the innovative technology to my thoughts

SPEAKER_96: i think this is a really important breakthrough and what it allows us to do now is see a world where look if you if you think about the two different paths of the following idea

SPEAKER_56: you're going to make a solution to a problem if if the problem was an internet company or you wanted to make a product what you would do is you would go to amazon web services you'd be able to consume a whole set of abstractions and then you would build a light amount of programming which was essentially like the application logic of your app right i think a lot of people listening understand that idea because that's what they do here what we're getting to a place is now soon we're going to be able to view biological problems in the same way so we're building all these small little building i don't want to call them small but building these very important building blocks that is very much akin to the building blocks we needed to put together the first set of computers to put together ms dos all of that allowed us to create windows windows allowed us to actually access the internet and there was this in seriatum development of things that happened and i think that we're on the verge of that and that's what these kinds of breakthroughs really show us which is that you can view so for example you know in a different company um they they've created these mrna gate arrays logic gate arrays so if you're you know a chip designer you would understand how to basically create electrical function in part using you know gate arrays but if you reduce a biological function to the same idea now that same person has a translational ability to solve a different problem that they didn't have before so i think what we're saying is that we're seeing this platformization this awsification of a biological tool chain with things like crispr and all of the other modalities that need to stack on top of it so that the next person can view it as a programming problem and i think that that's the really exciting path that accelerates a lot of this development but this was an enormously important breakthrough because it validated a lot of what crispr was beyond a lot of theoretical innovation that that up until now was basically what it was known for and a lot of investment had gone into companies that were trying to do things but this was the first really important one the funny thing about intellia is that it's been public for like seven eight years and it's just

SPEAKER_96: been toiling toiling toiling toiling toiling and then you know the last little while obviously it's

SPEAKER_224: gone absolutely crazy because of this breakthrough yeah and related new in related news crispr creates

SPEAKER_47: its first genetically modified marsupials after years of using the gene editing technique crispr to genetically modify everything from vegetables to lab rodents researchers have used it to edit one of the hardest targets she has marsupials the mit technology reports i guess it turns out they're very hard to edit and we're now editing marsupials and changing things like their hair color so brave new world

SPEAKER_224: freeberg was here the freeberg ratio would be off the charts all right wrapping up we have pretty

David Sacks: incredible just just one thing to add to that i mean i think what it what it shows is that these coveted vaccines are just the first product the first breakthrough product of this mrna technology there's going to be a lot more and what i wonder about is you know this this category of vaccine hesitant people they're kind of like you know in the in the technology world you have kind of a spectrum of early adopters late adopters luddites you know people are actively against technology yeah well i mean luddites are even laggards and then yeah yeah luddites are even more violently opposed i think the original luddites um they i think the original luddites were in england they lost their jobs at some factory and so they've broken to the factory with sledgehammers to destroy all the machines that replaced their jobs so there's clearly a spectrum and what i wonder about is that if you're on sort of the luddite end of the spectrum with respect to biotechnology i mean are you going to have a materially worse life because you're not getting the benefits of all these vaccines and all these treatments and i mean kova could just be the first example of this well i mean if you build on

SPEAKER_26: it it's sort of like we're going to create a two-class society one that is not only dealing with all the maladies and cancers and and living longer but we haven't even started to think about well taking somebody who's already in great health and what can you do for them so oh you know what uh you can be two inches taller you could add 10 iq points you could run faster you could have higher blood oxygen whatever i mean we could we could genetically modify people to stay underwater for 10 minutes and be you know better processors of oxygen like other mammals are you could have superhumans i mean that's basically where this is going and that unlocks a whole nother level of ethical and moral considerations but you're right there could be a group of people who are like i don't want to touch any of this and they die at 60 70 80 years old and then we got another class of people who embrace this and they have 20 more iq points and they live to 120. no i mean it's it sounds funny but and

SPEAKER_242: like science fiction but that is in the realm of possibility in our lifetimes there's a lot of great

David Sacks: science fiction written about this whole sort of transhumanist um idea a book series i really like is uh nexus by ramez nam uh who actually was a developer at microsoft and you know then became a writer and he writes with i'd say a high degree of sort of accuracy accuracy and specificity about these technologies and how they might evolve um people should be sure to check out that book jason be

SPEAKER_96: honest if you could actually increase anything in your body through this gene editing what would it be

SPEAKER_249: just throw anything out there with the first thing anything out there anything i would increase my

SPEAKER_64: muscle mass 100 increase my muscle mass by the way there's a percentage of fat would go down not in reality in absolute terms but just in percentages so this crisper thing was a public

Chamath Palihapitiya: company called intellia therapeutics um but i want to throw a shout out to another startup that seemingly i think may have had a breakthrough this week called form energy and the reason why these guys are interesting is that they've built this incredibly massive long duration battery out of iron now why is that important we have really simple ways of harvesting iron from the earth it is literally

SPEAKER_56: everywhere everywhere you look iron exists it's not so true for nickel it's not true for cobalt it's not true for manganese it's not true for lithium it's not true for all of these other specialty chemicals that we need in order to build batteries but these guys have solved a very complicated technical challenge that'll allow you to store energy cheaply which has huge implications for electricity and grids and so big shout out to these guys at form uh because if if if it looks like what they said they did is true it's a really important breakthrough that'll have some important uh ramifications

Chamath Palihapitiya: it's like it's amazing by the way to see progress now you wake up and you read these things and you're

SPEAKER_59: just like god this is incredible that there are people working away on shit that really matters

SPEAKER_26: it's almost as if there's like one group of people we talked about cynicism in a previous episode recently there's one group of people whether you're in the founder circles or capital allocator or a journalist covering this space who understands it there there's a a technical you know explosion going on here an innovation that is going to solve a lot of problems and they have another group of people who think that all these problems are intractable i'm kind of looking at this you know what happened with covid and i was talking to my wife about global warming and i was like feels to me like we can solve global warming like feels like it's very much in our control and there's another group of people who feel like it's over and don't have kids because the whole planet's gonna go on fire i mean uh i think

SPEAKER_96: elon tweeted this out um and i think we've talked about this now with respect to china but you know

SPEAKER_56: we have an enormous problem in the world in general which is that unless our birth rate is positive and accretive um it has huge implications to progress right if you just like if you eliminate or you decrease the denominator of the global population the odds that there's another elon musk or jeff bezos that are created are just lower and so net of anything else a declining population rate particularly in western countries has huge detrimental effects to the world and so all the folks that think that they're going to solve the ecology of the world by not having kids it's a little misguided the thing to do is to actually have a positive birth rate find technological solutions to this problem and allow what we've been able to do which is a rising populace to basically be motivated to work and solve problems and i think that we have to be very careful about that because if people don't get this right they're going to take the wrong solution it's not going to be a solution at all and it's going to make the problems even worse could you imagine if the population of the earth shrank in half what it would mean in terms of productivity services the health care requirements that are needed the cost of providing those things the economic viability of countries will go away it would be a disaster

David Friedberg: yet there is a group of people who feel we should do exactly that and not not a small group of people

SPEAKER_33: yeah well they think that i think i think the mistake is in thinking that human consumption is

David Sacks: the problem um and specifically with respect to to climate change or global warming no you you can't see it that way because um look humans in order to exist need to consume and we're going to emit carbon as part of that process the important thing to focus on is energy production are you shifting to clean production not because you're never going to be able to shrink your consumption enough to to basically eliminate carbon emissions um it has to be done on the production side and one of the interesting things that's happening now um i think we should talk about is in europe they're creating this new carbon trading plan i think china's even trying to set up one of these markets and so they're creating these new um you know marketplaces to trade carbon permits and i think the most exciting part about this is that it gives an incentive for um for innovators to create new technologies that actually take carbon out of the atmosphere uh they're called negative emissions technologies because what happens is if you have a technology to take carbon out of the atmosphere you can now sell

SPEAKER_50: a permit on the exchange that gives somebody else the right to emit that carbon and now those technologies those those um those nets the negative emission technologies it's unclear whether they really exist yet but no one's going to create them if there's not a customer for them and that's what's really cool about these new tradable permit schemes is they create a buyer for for those nets and i think that's

David Sacks: ultimately how we're going to solve this problem of climate change we're not going to do it through reducing human consumption like we're going to go back to the stone age if you don't want to emit

SPEAKER_50: carbon it's about moving to clean production of energy and creating uh negative emission technologies

Chamath Palihapitiya: yeah let me just build on that for a second there's look there's a bunch of cap and trade systems china basically has a terra um a carbon tax system in place the big thing that none of these

SPEAKER_56: folks have gotten to yet but i think if you look at the laws in europe they're going there is the idea of a carbon tariff and i think these carbon taxes if they actually exist properly will look like a tariff what does that mean let's just say you're britain and you want to import a volkswagen from

Chamath Palihapitiya: germany if britain has a carbon tariff that says basically you need to account for all of the emissions that

SPEAKER_34: went into making this car and i'm going to assess an import duty that basically maps to that um i think that that's where the world is going and that's probably david to to your point it's going to

Chamath Palihapitiya: be a really big value unlock because the amount of money that will get both made but also destroyed

SPEAKER_56: in that process will be incredible and that's where we have a chance to really reimagine consumption in a different way like there are just so many categories i saw this interesting stat if you look at cpg companies right companies like procter and gamble clorox and you compare them to the places where they sell their goods like walmart and target every single major big box retailer has basically declared a net zero emission strategy in the next five to ten years not a single company on the cpg side has actually any plans to do anything meaningful anywhere near 2030 2045 2050 and when you look under the hood those companies like p and g and clorox are enormous emitters enormous so even though you walk into a target in amazon and you try to make yourself feel good thinking thinking to yourself i'm buying

Chamath Palihapitiya: something that's zero emissions it's not true it's basically that amazon will will bear the cost of

SPEAKER_56: getting to net zero but the products that you actually consume are horrible for the environment and the amount of you know fossil fuels that went into it and the amount of plastic that will then get put into the ocean it's tremendous and so moving slightly more aggressively beyond these cap and trade systems into something that looks more like a tariff i think could be really important for the world

SPEAKER_37: and we're going to need to do it there's and there are multiple ways to do it i don't know if you

SPEAKER_47: guys saw elon backed this the x prize carbon sequestering sequestering project which is a hundred million dollar prize and you can do this in multiple ways you can do it at the factory and there's a the one trillion trees dot org i don't know if you saw that where they're trying to plant a trillion trees because that's the original way to uh sequester this carbon so there's going to be like three or

SPEAKER_26: four different ways to do this and if there's an incentive to do it yeah that um is going to help for

SPEAKER_277: sure part of why there's such political disagreement over this is because you look at approaches like the

David Sacks: green new deal i mean i think they understand the the problem but what they're proposing is always on the consumption side is basically politicians picking and choosing how people are going to consume carbon whether it's you know cracking down on private planes to you know factories i mean again taking us back to the stone age um nobody wants to no no one's saying i think wants to support that kind of totalitarian principle that the politicians get to tell us how to consume but this is this is why i think these um these these market-based solutions where you say look carbon emissions are obviously an externality if you want to emit you need to basically pay the correct price for carbon emissions and we use the the money that you pay uh as as some sort of um whether it's a tax or whether it's buying a permit we use that money then offset into negative carbon emissions it's a market-based system where the government controls the externality but they don't dictate how people get to consume carbon and i think that's the right balance and we don't really have that type of balanced conversation in

SPEAKER_50: the u.s yet because you've kind of got one side that says they want to save the planet but they want to control everything and then you got the other side saying well look i want to save the economy

SPEAKER_85: because your plan the green new deal is going to destroy it what we need is is again a market-based

SPEAKER_39: solution to this and i guess the criticism of a market-based solution is you're basically giving

SPEAKER_26: people a way to a the most cynical interpretation would be you can pay to pollute you can just you can pollute all you want and just pay a fine essentially but that's not the right way to look at it you're actually offsetting somebody else is capturing what you put out there and it depending on the rules of the road if you had to capture 50 more than you put in you could create a formula there right i mean there could be some formula that over time there's been a lot of fraud in this market

SPEAKER_115: like um you know people sell these carbon credits from you know certain forests and there's this joke

Chamath Palihapitiya: which is like there's been a tree that's been sold like 80 billion times because it's like you can't really verify you can only really estimate the amount of carbon sequestration that you know for

SPEAKER_34: example a tree actually does in the first place and so there's been just a lot of um unfortunately you know fly by night uh unreliable non-trustworthy ways that this market has evolved people have been

SPEAKER_96: waiting for decades for this carbon trading market to really step into high gear which is why some folks think the more aggressive plan will just be introduced tariffs and let the market david to

SPEAKER_85: your point sort it out what do you what do you think the prospects are for these negative emission technology i i can't believe that a solution as low-tech as planting trees is going to solve the problem yeah yeah so the question is what do you what do you think assuming we create the market the

SPEAKER_50: demand for negative emission technologies the permits to emit um what do you think the prospects are

SPEAKER_287: technologically that innovators are going to come up with these solutions i do think that we are a

SPEAKER_34: couple of breakthroughs away from these things being non-issues so i'll give you a couple of examples

Chamath Palihapitiya: if you look at like i'll just use batteries as an example because where i'm spending a lot of time when you look back and like you ask yourself like how did we decide to make the batteries the way we

SPEAKER_34: make them um you know was it some like you know broad survey of every single chemical composition

Chamath Palihapitiya: and all these different structures and we realized that you know a composition of nickel and manganese and cobalt was the right thing to do or lithium and iron and phosphate was it turned out that it was mostly like a handful of people decided and we all just been iterating around the edges ever since so one of the solutions to a lot of these problems is to actually go back to first principles the problem is that as these industries get built up and you know this you have so much um

SPEAKER_56: pp and e like so much equipment so much investment in physical capex that's happened the idea of switching platforms is almost impossible because it's not economically viable

Chamath Palihapitiya: so we are in this situation today where a bunch of solutions have been proposed david to solve that problem right the problem with carbon capture and other other things and negative emission technologies is that they're extremely expensive they're very inefficient they

SPEAKER_149: require an enormous amount of energy themselves and it's not clear that they work so what's happening

SPEAKER_34: one is that there's been some pretty novel innovations in moving people past some of these

Chamath Palihapitiya: basic problems by looking at the periodic table to try to find different ways of solving things like energy

SPEAKER_56: storage which has huge implications to climate but the second is that we are pushing the boundaries of physics in different ways as well and that's where there's going to be the potential for an enormous breakthrough specifically around superconductors so what is a superconductor it's something that allows

SPEAKER_34: an enormous amount of energy to basically trans through it now we have this issue which is that you can actually create superconductors in highly controlled environments that are extremely extremely

SPEAKER_149: cold but they have incredible performance characteristics that would revolutionize power and energy transmission and storage people have been innovating in bringing that up to room temperature

Chamath Palihapitiya: in that breakthrough which i think you will see in the next 20 to 30 years it's just a complete sea change of how we think about this whole problem so i think the short term we're innovating in the periodic table in the long term we're figuring out how to bend the laws of physics and i think that those are those are probably the two most practical solutions to a lot of these

SPEAKER_56: things that remove the constraints that we've created and again the constraints have been completely

Chamath Palihapitiya: human defined which is the sad thing they were not necessary from the start we could have made very different decisions had we known these problems were going to be as big as they were you know the way

SPEAKER_56: that we make plastic didn't have to be this way right the amount of petroleum that we use it didn't have to be in this specific way but this is where we are and there are direct air capture technologies

SPEAKER_47: dac which is basically an energy issue you can literally suck the carbon dioxide out of the air um and

David Friedberg: again another another issue of material science because the the substrates that you use tend to be

SPEAKER_149: relatively inefficient and sort of really activate them you're pumping a tremendous amount of energy

SPEAKER_26: through there that's the issue is can you get the energy and i think when we talked about the small reactors uh the small modular nuclear reactors if energy is free or it's solar based you could you

Chamath Palihapitiya: could kind of get a virtuous cycle going here that's essentially what superconductors allows you to see as a world where you basically have limitless free energy it sounds like the thing that we all agree on

SPEAKER_127: is that this problem is ultimately going to be solved by innovation and this is the problem i have with

David Sacks: so many of the political proposals is you know our ability to innovate is a function of the size and scope of our economy and the incentives and rewards for innovation and the freedom for entrepreneurs to

SPEAKER_85: do their thing and if you crush that yeah you know with government mandates you won't get the

SPEAKER_208: innovation we need to get out of this problem we can easily innovate our way out of it and it requires

SPEAKER_26: some individual to say i want to dedicate my life to it and then what is the motivation to do that and who are the capital allocators who are going to give them the billion dollars to create this

Chamath Palihapitiya: company i spent a bunch of time so i'm the capital allocator that'll give billions in fact i did a survey of the superconductor space as an example and here's what i found of the of the four folks that i found uh who are all each individually doing things in superconductors that i think are incredible they're all immigrants every single one were not born in the united states you could you

SPEAKER_34: they are so fucking happy to be here they feel so lucky and they don't understand why everybody

SPEAKER_37: complains all the fucking time yeah complaining is i there is a disease of constantly complaining about stuff and if you count the number of times you complain every day and it's more than two or three

SPEAKER_47: times a day uh you need to get your head examined you're probably just talking yourself into anxiety

SPEAKER_224: problems stop complaining start building i mean these problems are solvable there is an immigrant

SPEAKER_256: in uh in the united states right now that will figure out how to conduct electricity without resistance it will transform the world and we are so lucky that that guy came here to to this country and we have the chance to give the guy a billion dollars one of my favorite movies

SPEAKER_308: is uh wag the dog with uh and rob de niro and dustin hoffman plays this producer character and every time there's a setback he's like oh this is nothing i remember we made this movie and three out of the four lead actors died and we recast the movie it's like this is nothing yeah and you know and that's

SPEAKER_310: sort of his catchphrase is he's got this can-do attitude where no matter what setback happens he

SPEAKER_308: just makes it it's like oh this is nothing we got it and you know and and that's kind of the attitude you need if you want to be an entrepreneur is there's gonna be so many setbacks you gotta be

SPEAKER_314: like oh this is nothing and you figure out a way around it yeah this one of the guys that are working

SPEAKER_96: on superconductor showed me his data for the last 10 years and what's interesting david to your point is

Chamath Palihapitiya: he had a four-year period where he took a huge step back where basically like you know he had this

SPEAKER_34: superconductor he's like it works at you know i'm just going to use simple numbers here but like you know minus 300 celsius he got it all the way up to minus you know 100 and then it went back to minus 200 for four years could you imagine the mental devastation and i said how did you deal with it he goes ah you know basically he's like ah it's nothing yeah and thank god for that guy it's

SPEAKER_39: interesting i just listened to quentin tarantino's on a podcasting tour because he's got a new book he

SPEAKER_26: made he he wrote a novel out of the once upon a time in hollywood characters and i just started listening to it it's fantastic uh listen on audible and uh brian koppelman from the moment

SPEAKER_64: interviewed quentin i listened to it yesterday on my bike ride and he was just talking about how he just never gave up and he had written true romance and then he wrote um what was the other one he wrote at that time natural born killers natural killers yeah and he was just talking about how the first movie nobody would do then he wrote the two screenplays and nobody would do and then he got to reservoir dogs and you know they tried to scrape together 800 000 and he kept asking like why didn't you quit why didn't you quit he's like well you know i just i figured it out like i figured out i had a voice and then nobody would buy my scripts because i was trying to do something innovative and they were reading the scripts and they didn't understand what i was doing in terms of innovating

SPEAKER_26: on how a movie would be with you know how he does with pulp fiction he changes the time and tells the storytelling in a non-linear fashion he's saying nobody understood it but every time i read it i realized i had a voice it was my voice it was getting better and better and then people you know i sold those movies and then he kept building them and it was very inspiring to think about that take of like he just didn't give up and he just totally looked at the work and he found his he found his

SPEAKER_125: own value in his own work improving even without the external you know it's a it's a fantastic story

David Sacks: it's like one of those classic you know hollywood or entrepreneur stories he's working at a video store for years and you know he would start he was uh making his own movie and he would uh film on the weekends and then you know he made a few hundred dollars every week basically and then he would rent the equipment on a friday because then they would only charge him for one day because it was the weekend so he could basically record the entire weekend and so he'd go off and record and and then he'd have to go back to work and he started making this movie you know one weekend at a time for like two or three years and then he finally put he didn't even have the money to get the film developed

SPEAKER_50: so finally after three years he gets the film developed and he's like unfortunately it sucked it wasn't what he was expecting but during that time uh he wrote tourmans which then got bought he sold

David Sacks: that screenplay that gave him a little bit of money then he wrote reservoir dogs and then he met laurence bender and you know bender went out read the script it was like holy this is amazing they raised the you know million or so bucks to make the movie and then that kind of launched everything and uh yeah it's it's one of these you know amazing rags to riches stories um you know they're kind of rare and or they're more rare in hollywood they occur all the time in the tech

SPEAKER_22: industry we see you know that's such an interesting point he said uh they're like you would never let you make that movie now and you know in another conversation i think i listened to three podcasts

SPEAKER_26: with him uh joe rogan bready stanellis and then brian koppelman's and all three of them are tremendous but uh i think in the bready stanell in the joe rogan one he's like oh they would never let you make

SPEAKER_64: that movie he was like you can just make it i just made it i did you not see the last two films and

SPEAKER_26: how politically incorrect they were and you know i don't care what bruce lee's you know fans think of how i portray bruce lee he was a he was a bad actor he was a terrible you know human being to

SPEAKER_64: these folks and he his basic thing was everybody keeps waiting to ask for permission and he's like

SPEAKER_26: i'm just going to make my movies and uh let the chips fall where they may i'm not going to be censored i'm not going to censor myself and i'll make my 10 movies and that's it game over

Chamath Palihapitiya: i'm going to tell a story i want to tell this uh poker story i get one last time yeah yeah

SPEAKER_50: you tell your story tarantino's success with reservoir dogs i think it came out in 1991

David Sacks: um that really inspired me to want to make movies um because i saw that somebody could make a movie outside the system for so little money and that's why i made thank you for smoking um and we have another we have another independent movie coming out next year about salvador dali which you know finally got made after about 15 years so um yeah i mean he's inspired a lot of people and he shows

Chamath Palihapitiya: what can be done uh this is a rags to riches story that involves j account so uh i get invited i get invited to the harvard business school to give a speech first and last time i was invited because

SPEAKER_68: i was disinvited jason after that what happened but well the back two rows walked out in the first five minutes wow incredible it was incredible like we i get invited to do this thing obviously it's in

David Friedberg: boston it's in winter time right jacal yeah it was winter and it was boston it's like not a great trip

Chamath Palihapitiya: so sax you know i was like okay jacal what are we going to do to spice this trip up and we invite big

SPEAKER_34: al oh okay and uh we get on the plane and big al says oh you want to play a little poker i said absolutely and i turned to jacal and i said jason do you want to play he's like ah i said you know you guys can play against each other and i said jason why don't you deal he's like i'm not interested in dealing and i said jacal i'll give you 10 of whatever i win i was like shuffle up

SPEAKER_68: he deals the game for six hours from la where we were chinese poker to boston

Chamath Palihapitiya: i smashed big al i smashed big l smash uh i smashed him and uh then we go into the thing we have like a

SPEAKER_34: nice dinner blah blah blah we go out we have the thing at at the at harvard where i said something like you know i think an mba is basically worthless it's just not a good use of your time i think you should be out building things the back two rows walked out they were completely offended and uh i did the speech it doesn't matter i get back on the plane and we're flying back and uh at some point i realized i said jason what's the tally and jason says i'm up 40 000 and i said excuse me you're up

SPEAKER_344: and it turned out that i was smashing him smashing smashing anyways the long story short of it was

SPEAKER_149: that we circled for a few times and then we finally landed and j cal won 55 000 but that's

SPEAKER_348: you could play circling so you could win more here's what you don't know through the pack of

SPEAKER_350: cards at jason and said i never want to i never want to see you ever again i never want to have

SPEAKER_351: you play poker ever again the truth is i went to the pilots and i told them i'll give you five grand

SPEAKER_353: if you can make this flight last another hour and they were like yeah we got a circle they got and we

SPEAKER_68: just kept circling for an hour i was like i gotta get another hour and he lost 550 000 on a fucking stupid trip he never even wanted to come he didn't want to go to the best michelin star

SPEAKER_250: restaurant in boston oh my god in boston it's so fucking stuffy by the way and it's so stuffy

SPEAKER_241: and so stuffy they're talking so seriously and they're trying to you know bring you know 18 courses

SPEAKER_197: to us and you know big al's a big guy he's called big al for a reason i mean he's a linebacker

SPEAKER_140: and they say to big he's like i'll take this i want a steak what do you got he's like there's a steak included in the prefix you should do the tasting manual it's like oh yeah tasting money fuck it let's go yeah i'll put more truffles on it they're like it's not truffle season sorry he's like okay we'll make it truffle season anyway they start bringing the food and he he wants to eat a

SPEAKER_197: steak and they bring him i kid you know one of those funny scenes in a movie where like they pulled

SPEAKER_34: the tin and it's like a like a small piece of meat that's like giant like giant chafer comes flying

SPEAKER_250: off a piece of parsley and that's it the steak was the size of a pack of wrigley's gum i am not

SPEAKER_197: kidding they took like a beautiful steak and they just made a little rectangle out of it he takes his

SPEAKER_32: fork he puts it on and he holds it up to the woman he goes where's my steak and he puts the whole

SPEAKER_375: steak that was your steak he's like i want a steak he starts screaming i want to stay i want a steak

SPEAKER_339: the whole restaurant's turn he's like i ordered a steak this is not if you ask him if you ask him

SPEAKER_34: about the strip he's like i lost so much money yeah he's like i didn't eat it was cold in boston it was

SPEAKER_241: cold it was the worst trip ever it was a horrible trip ever and he is like the woman's like well how can we make you happy he's like bring me a steak like well sir we had we gave you a steak point the

SPEAKER_115: steak came how many steaks how many steaks are you gonna afford now that uh robin hood just went public

SPEAKER_26: um yeah you know it's right now it's my third biggest win uh uber com and then this one and you know time and market i i think robin hood going out of 30 billion there's a chance this could go 10 20 30 x from here i think it could be a trillion dollar company someday 22 million members even through all the craziness that we talked about on this podcast uh you know they're learning they're fixing things and 22 million people using the product and they're going to launch so many other products as part of it and all these young people getting financially literate i know it's a

SPEAKER_256: double-edged sword but i kind of feel like this generation balance it's it's it's better balance

SPEAKER_37: it's important i mean can you imagine if we were in our 20s trading derivatives and options and just

SPEAKER_26: trading stocks all day i wanted to do that but it was too hard you had to get a broker it was 35 dollars a trade when i started trading and you had to call charles schwab and put it in

Chamath Palihapitiya: order of all the things of all the things i could have done online in my 20s and 30s

SPEAKER_161: uh trading stocks what didn't end up being high on the list but you didn't play a lot of cards

SPEAKER_22: i mean a lot of cards right but that's what these kids are doing like for them this is

SPEAKER_26: you know in the same zone a lot of them as sports betting wagering playing poker for money they're they're learning i don't know how you feel about investment strategy well i mean if you make a lot of mistakes early in your career when you're making 100 bets or buying a tenth of a stock you know it's small stakes and you're going to learn a hell of a lot so i think the education part is you can only

SPEAKER_47: learn by doing right sax i mean you can't learn in a you know okay listen there's been an amazing

SPEAKER_140: episode even without freeberg uh we miss you freeberg come back next week uh let the conspiracy theories

SPEAKER_47: abound but freeberg just was busy he couldn't make it and we all wanted to we missed each other so we wanted to see our besties we love you freeberg and we love you freeberg we love you freeberg

SPEAKER_357: back at your freeberg and we'll see you all next time on the all in podcast bye-bye

SPEAKER_09: david sacks

SPEAKER_406: you've been sourced it to your feet we need to get merch these are